IMAGE EVALUATION TEST TARGET (MT-3) 5* A \Sj u° ^" * I.I 1.25 125 1^ 12.2 -«, ft :!r U£ 1112.0 1.8 U III 1.6 V V. Photographic Sciences Corpomtioa 23 V«cST MAIN STREET AiERSTER, N.Y. 14580 ;716) 872-4503 ;: (meaning "CON- TINUED"), or the symbol y (meaning "END"), whichever applies. Meps, plates, charts, etc., may be filmed at different reduction ratios. Those too large to be entirely included in one exposure are filmed beginning in the upper left hand corner, left to right and top to bottom, as many frames as required. The foiiowinc diagrams illustrate the method: Lea images suivantas ont 6t6 reproduites avac la plus grand soln, compta tenu de ia condition at da la nattetA de I'exempiaira f ilmt, et en conformity avac las conditions du contrat da filmaga. 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Las diagrammas suivants iilustrent la mithoda. 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 .^*.^r^™y«T, I -^'^l'— ? v P^:^# ' tZ.Sl\- 1Q2.. .,/f9f Hf- '■■ ■ »*V *"^ THE CANADIAN CENSUS. The returns of the recent census in Canada are generally admitted to show results that are not quite satisf actor}', though they do not deserve the severe criticism to which they have in some quarters been subjected. There is some difference of opinion as to the causes that are responsible for the comparatively small increase in the popu- lation that has been witnessed. It is only natural that there should be an anxiety to ascertain why the increase is only 11 "CG per cent, (rather larger than that in the United Kingdom), when an addition of nearly double that percentage was expected ; and at first sight it is apt to appear somewhat remarkable that in 1891 there are apparently only o04,601 more people in Canada than in 1881, con- sidering the developments that have taken place in the Dominion dunng that time. Before, however, entering upon an examination of the reasons that are believed to afford a reasonable explanation of what seems to be an anomaly, it may be as well to briefly summarize the census figures, as p.'sented to the Canadian Par- liament : — Pro\inces. 1871. Nova Scotia New Brunswick Prince Edward Island 3S7.800 285,094 94,021 1S81. Increase. 440,.)72 .52,772 321,2331 35,639 108,891 14,870 Total — Maritime Provinces I 707,415 Quebec Ontario 870,0961 103,281 . 1,191,0101,3.59,0271 107,511 Per Cent. 1891. 13-01 12-48 17-19 13-45 14-05 1,020,851 Total— Quebec and Ontario 2,812,367 i Manitoba ' 25,228 North-West Tcmtcrics . . j 18.000 British Columbia . . . j 33,586 Unorganized Territory . . i 30,000 Total Western Provinces . ! 106,814 Total for the Dominion . 3,086,690 1,926,9221 306,071 18- 450.523 321,294 109,088 880,905 Per Increaoe., Cent. 9,951 01 197 10,209 2-251 0-02 0-18 1-17 l,488,586il29,559i 9-53 •2,112,989'l86,007 9-6J 3,285,9491 473,582 16-83 3,601,575.315,020 9-60 62,260' 25,515; 49,4591 30,931' 37,032 146-78 7,515 41-75 15,873i 47-20 93l! 3-10 168,165 61,351 67-43 4,324,810; 638,214 17-31 154,442 67,554 92,767 32,108 92,182 148-06 42,039 164-76 43,308 87-80 1,237; 4-00 340,931 178,766 106-30 4,829,411 504,601 11-06 It will be seen that, in the Maritime Provinces, there has been an increase of only 10, '2 09 people in the ten years, as compared with 103,281 in the previous decade ; and in Quebec and Ontario an increase of 31o,6".;;G as against 473,'582, The increase in the "Western Provinces is more gratifying, but even there it does not come up to 834 THE CANADIAN CENSUS. the sanguine expectations that were formed when the Canadian Pacific llailway was in tlic early days of its construction, and when everybody was enthusiastic about the great future before the country and the rapid influx of people destined to occupy its millions of acres of fertile land, that was believed to bo inevitable as soon as it was made accessible to the struggling agriculturists of Europe. There arc not a few who are disposed to cast doubts upon the accuracy of the figures, but that is sure to be the case in the cir- cumstances. In some districts there arc rumours of recounts, and in Victoria and in Vancouver the city authorities claim that local returns show the population, in each instance, to be more by some thousands than is disclosed in the official calculations. That part of the subject may, however, be left to take care of itself ; but it is an acknowledged fact that the system of enumeration adopted this year differed materially from that formerly used, in the following important respect. In 1881, all the absent members of families likely to return to their homes some time or other are said to havo been included ; while, in 1891, only those expected within twelve months were counted. Having regard to the number of Canadians living in the United States, it will at once be seen that many persons must have been excluded from this year's statements who would have been entered on previous occasions. Precautions were also taken to prevent the duplication of entries, which were known to have previously occurred. The adoption of this obviously more accurate method of counting of course tends to lessen the value, for pui'poses of comparison, of the figures taken in years gone by under different conditions. It is estimated also that the population of Ontario alone is less by 182,000 than it would have been had the birth-rate of twenty years ago been maintained. Two interesting conclusions, both referring almost entirely to the older provinces, and bearing specially on the subject under discus- sion, are to be drawn from the returns so far published. (1) That in many of the rural districts the population has not increased ; in fact, the increase under that heading for the entire Dominion only amounted to 120,455, of which by far the larger proportion, indeed nearly the whole, must be credited to Manitoba and the North- West territories. (2) That there has been a considerable movement to the cities and towns, not only from the country divisions, but on the part of the immigrants. The urban population of the Dominion is now 1,394,259, an increase of 384,146 since 1881, equal to 38'1 per cent. In 1891 there were forty-seven cities and towns with a popu- lation of over 5,000, as against thirty-five ten years ago. In the same period, the towns of from 3,000 to 5,000 inhabitants increased from thirty-eight to forty-five ; and the villages containing 1,500 to 3,000 people from fifty-five to ninety-one. It is evident therefore THE CANADIAN CENSUS. 835 that, for some reason, the largo centres of population have been gain- ing at the expense of the rural districts. This state of things is not peculiar to Canada, as migration of the kind has also been going on for many years in the United Kingdom ; but the same causes are not at work in both countries, although there arc some points of similarity. The growth of tlio manufacturing industry, and the higher wages obtaining in the towns are no doubt the principal magnets in each case, and the improvement in agricultural machinery has also led to a lessened demand for labour. But there the comparison stops. Land-hunger does not exist in Canada : any quantity of unoccupied land may be acquired in the older provinces ; the farmers are, as a rule, comfortably oif : there are no heavy rents, taxes, or tithes to pay ; and as regards labourers, the difference between the urban and rural wages is not so marked as in England. Many of .he farms are mort- gaged it is true, but the money so raised is used as working capital, and, if the interest is paid upon it and something gained also in addition to living-expenses, which, as a rule, is the case, it is cer- tainly no hardship on the farmer. The true explanation of the slow numerical progress of the farming community in the eastern parts of the Dominion is found in the fact that the unappro- priated land, available for settlement, is, to a great extent, covered with forest or stumps, and has to be cleared before it can be cul- tivated. Even young Canadians, apparently, are not willing to undertake the hard work which must be endured before a comfort- able farm can be established in such circumstances, although they can see around them evidence of what can be done, in the beauti- ful homesteads which were won from the forest by their fathers and grandfathers. And, on the other hand, immigrants from Europe, and especially those from the United Kingdom, are not advised to make a start under conditions of the kind, unless in a position to hire labour for the work of clearing. The Canadian farmers may be doing fairly well, but they are not alwa"«'8 in a position to buy farms for their grown-up sons, who may have a predilection for agricul- ture ; and as the rising generation looks askance on the forest land, which may be obtained for nothing, or next to nothing, it is not an uncommon thing for the farm to be sold, and for the whole family to go west, to recommence their life on the prairies, which the pro- ceeds of the sale enables them to do in comparative comfort, and on a much larger scale than they have been accustomed to. There is no such ardent attachment to the land in Canada as one is accustomed to find among old-country agriculturists, and a man does not mind passing on to fresh woods and pastures new, if there is a little money or some other advantage, to be gained by the change. The farms vacated in the way described are disposed of to other local land- owners or to new arrivals. Many men who emigrate for It 836 THE CANAPIAN CENSUS. family reasons, that is, for tlie ben ifit of their (shildren, and have some capital, prefer the social surroui iings and advantages of the older provinces to pionecr-lifo on the prairies. They do not, however, go out in sufficient numbers to make ip for the drain to which reference has been made. Precisely the same condition of things that has existed, and still exists, in Canada, prevails, howevei*, in the eastern part of the United States. The rural population in most of the Atlantic States is either stationary or decreasing, as proved by the returns of the recent American census. There is no doubt that the unoccupied lands in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario Avill in time be converted into corn-fields and meadows, and made to add their quota to the food, supplies of the world, especially as those provinces have the advantage of comparative proximity to the great markets of Europe. But wo shall have to wait until the prairies become more thickly inhabited, and until the price of land there somewhat approximates to that which obtains in the east. Before leaving this part of the subject it may be as well to mention that, as the result of the excellent educational facilities obtaining in Canada, many of the young men, after their schooling is done, oeem to prefer callings other than agriculture, which may also help to account, in some measure, for the increase in the towns. The figures already quoted, as to the increase in the urban population, are generally held to be sufficient proof of the rapid expansion of the manufacturing indus- tries of the Dominion. There are no definite or reliable statistics available to enable the extent of their development to be demon- strated ; but the great increase in the imports of raw material, the extension of the banking business of the country, and of the inter- colonial trade (as shown by the quadrupling of quantity of freight carried on the railways in the last fifteen years), afford perhaps the best evidence that could be offered to establish the fact. So far reference has only been made to the past and present position of the older provinces of Canada. In Manitoba, the North-West, and British Columbia a g ater increase than has been apparent was expected for reasons that have been mentioned, and, except in British Columbia, the inhabitants of course chiefly settle upon the land. In view of all the circumstances, however, the result cannot be regarded as so entirely unsatisfactory as, at the first glance, it may seem. It was only in 1885 that the Canadian Pacific Railway was completed, and through-trains did not commence to run until the follow- ing year. Even then there was little beyond the main line in opera- tion. It is only within the last two or three years that much pro- gress has been made in the construction of branch railways. In 1881, the line was worked only as far as Portage-la- Prairie, and it was not until 1882 that Winnipeg could be reached at all through Canadian territory, and onl}'- then in the summer season. Prior to that year, and in the winter for two or three years later, the means ^ THE CANADIAN CENSUS. 837 i « N of access was through the United States, and the first regular train by that route entered "Winnipeg in 1878. These facts are stated in order to show that it is but a short time since the country was the illimitable wilderness which Lord Beaconsfield described it to be. That it should have attracted over two hundred thousand settlers in the comparatively short period which has elapsed speaks volumes for the suitability of its climate, both for health and for agricultural purposes. This year the harvest has been most abundant, and it is estimated that there will be a surplus of wheat for export of at least twenty-five million bushels. The prairie section of Canada is evidently upon the threshold of an era of expansion. It is only within the last year or two that its climate, and the system of farming that should be adopted, have begun to be generally understood. There is little doubt that it has been chiefly owing to the inexperience of many of the settlers in the past that the crops have not always turned out so well as could have been wished. It is believed by those who are competent to speak upon the subject, and it is the opinion of many of the tenant-farmers' delegates who visited Canada last year, that if early sowing becomes universal, and if the quantity of land the farmers can properly cultivate is realised, having regard to the length of the season and the scarcity of labour that usually prevails at harvest-time, very little will be heard in the future of the frosts that have occasionally done considerable harm to the crops. The country is by no means a farming El Dorado ; it is liable to good and bad seasons, like other countries, but upon the whole there can be no question but that it is eminently suited for mixed farming, cattle-raising, and dairying. As to British Columbia, those who know that province, or have friends there, are enthusiastic about its mineral resources, the facilities it offers for the establishment of a great manufacturing industry, and its by no means unim- portant agricultural potentialities. Confidence is freely expressed in its future, especially in view of the advantages which must accrue from the favourable position it occupies in regard to the markets of South America, China, Japan, and Australia. The question will naturally be asked, " How is it that with all the great advantages Canada possesses there are so many Canadians living in the United States ? " Every Canadian should be glad to have this point raised, for it is a subject upon which much misap- prehension exists. Reference has already been made to the move- ment from Eastern Canada to the prairies, and to the cities and manufacturing centres. The fact is that before Manitoba and the North-West became accessible, before the manufacturing industry in Canada developed its present activity, and before the urban popula- tion began to expand at its recent satisfactory rate, many of the rising generation of Canada, both young professional men, agriculturists, VOL. L. N.S. 3i 838 THE CANADIAN CENSUS. mechanics, and labourers went to the United States, as great induce- ments were held out to them, and as it afforded better chances of a livelihood, and of success in life, than most of the young i)coplo could find at home. The boundary between the two countries is an invisible one ; the same language prevails ; there is a rommon ancestry, and there has always been considerable intercourse between Canadians and Americans. For these reasons going to the south was hardly like going to a foreign country ; but, in any case, having regard to the condition of things prevailing in British North America before confederation, and even for many years afterwards, they had no allcrnative, and their education and training made them more acceptable in the United States than European immigrants, both on the prairies and in the towns. It must be borne in mind that the prairies in the western States have been available for colo- nisation for the last forty years or more, and that the industrial development of the eastern States had also been making great strides, before Canada commenced its upward movement in the same direc- tion. There is little emigration to the United States from Canada now compared with former times. The Washington authorities tried to keep up the delusion that the contrary was the case, but the official inquiry made by the Canadian Government a few years ago proved so clearly that the figures published periodically were unworthy of credit that they were discontinued. Indeed, it is asserted that a movement in the opposite direction is now taking place, and it is claimed that two or three thoUk"'and persons have crossed from Dakoi i to Manitoba this year. Many of them are probably Car. ^' s who settled in the States in the past, while others are Am. i citizens. It is often asked if the fiscal policy of the United States has been the direct cause of any emigration from Canada. This may have been the case years ago from the impetus the heavy Customs duties gave to American industries, and the numerous openings thus afforded to young men of energy and ability. It is not probable that the tariffs of either country have had much to do with any agricultural emigration. The cost of living in the States is much heavier than in the Dominion, as the American tariff has always been on an average the higher by at least 20 per cent., and, owing to the McKinley tariff the difference is now probably greater. It may, however, be taken for granted that the inauguration of the National Policy of Canada — whatever may be said against it by political economists — the construction of the Canadian Pacific Railway, and the consequent consolidation of the Dominion, have had the effect, to a greater extent than formerly, of keeping Canadians at home, where they now find more numerous outlets for their intelligence and enterprise. It is not generally known that there is a large number of Americans living in Canada. THE CANADIAN CENSUS. 830 Tn 1881, for instance, there wore 77,000 persons born in the United 8tiite8 included in the Canadian census, and there are probably more at the present time. This is the natural consequence of the contiguity of the two countries, and of the considerable trade tliat is done between them. Many critics have attempted to make capital out of the fact that the Canadian census returns only show an increase of 501,001 in tlio population, while the immigration statistics, published anmiully, indicate that over 880,000 new arrivals landed in the Dominion in the same period. This seems rather startling, but it is to be feared that very little reliance can bo placed on the emigration and immi- gration figures published by any country, although they are pro- pared with the best intentions, and in no country is greater care taken than in Canada. Even the British Board of Trade montlily statements, for instance, are of doubtful accuracy. No attempt is made in compiling them to divide the ordinary steerage passengers froni emigrants ; they arc all lumped together, notwithstanding that a great many people cross the Atlantic from the United States and Canada to Europe by every steamer, and, after visiting thoii- friends and relatives, go back again in the steerage. In the annual statements, the immigration is deducted from the emigration, with a view to arrive at the net emigration, but the parliamentary paper containing these figures, like a good many other inter^'^sting Blue Books, is not widely read. Another blemish in the returns is that all persons travelling to American ports are put down as emi- grants, to the States, although a certain proportion of them go on to Canada, the port of debarkation being the point which apparently decides the destination, and not the actual place they are bound for. The same thing applies, of course, to persons travelling to the United States by way of the Dominion, but the Canadian route to the United States is not so largely used as that to Canada by New York and other American ports. No doubt there are many difficulties in the way of making the British emigration returns thoroughly accurate, and the same thing may be said of the Washington and Ottawa figures. It stands to reason that in the hurry and bustle of disembarldng from the steamers, or even in crossing the frontier by railway, it is hardly possible to discriminate between immigrants, those who are travelling on business or pleasure, and Americans or Canadians as the case may be. According to the British returns the net emi- gration between 1881 and 1891, from the United Kingdom to Canada, was 312,310. This would only include people travelling direct to Canadian ports from Great Britain, not those journeying via the United States, or those going direct from Continental ports, or any emigration from the United States ; but it will be seen that there is a very large margin between the figures mentioned and the 3i2 810 THE CANADIAN CENSUS. H8G,000 given in the Cunudian official returns. It is equally certain that the United 8ti)tos do not got all the emigration attributed to them, for precisely the same reasons. Tf they had done so, during the last decade, the inc-rease in its population ought to luivo been about tifty per cent, larger than the census shows. There has ahvavs been a more numerous emigration to the United States than there is to Canada, and this is sure to continue for many years. Tlio population of the llepublic is more than twelve times greater than that of the Dominion, and such an immense congregation of people acts as a magnet in attracting immigrunts. l*eople naturally go to their friends, or as near as possible, and where they think the most money can be made, utterly regardless often as to sentiment and the com- parative cost of living. And again, while Canada only invites farmers with capital, farm labourers, and domestic servants, at present, and such artisans and mechanics as may go out on the advice of their friends and relatives, already living in the country, the United States are in a position to absorb, in addition, a large industrial popu- lation of all classes, and only reject those who go out under con- tracts, those who are deformed and physically unsuitable, or those likely to become a burden upon the community. It Canada were to extend an indiscriminate welcome to all classes, the labour market would soon be overstocked, and the " unemployed " difficulty, which has not hitherto been a source of trouble, would be introduced. Having dealt with the condition of things which has prevailed for the last few years iu the Dominion, and the various causes, many of them of a temporary naiure, which are largely respon- sible for the comparatively small increase that is shown in the census returns, it will now be opportune to direct attention to the future. What the country needs is undoubtedly immigration, capi- talists, large and small, and certain classes of labour. It does not seem likely that the rural districts uf the older provinces will make very rapid progress for some time to come, for the reasons already mentioned, although the agricultural industry will certainly hold its own ; and it cannot be too strongly urged that the older provinces offer advantages to farmers with means which will well repay inves- tigation. The manufacturing industry is bound to expand to con- siderable dimensions ; the mineral deposits will certainly be developed with greater vigour than in the past, and the same remark a^jplies to the lumber trade and to the fisheries ; all this means employment for many more men and women. It is, however, in Manitoba, and the North- West, and in British Columbia that the greatest imme- diate increase in the population must be looked for. These provinces, which only now boast of about 350,000 inhabitants, are calculated to afford happy homes and good livings to millions ; they are veritable lands of plenty ; all are welcome, be they English, Irish, Scotch, \ ^ Hjti THi3 CANADIAN CENSUS. 841 ^ "Welsh, Ainerlcuns, or the hardy inhabitants of Nortliern Europe ; and if the settlers have a small amount of capital, good health, and a capacity lor work, they must in a few years, with ordinary good for- tune, attain a position that would, in the large majority of cases, have been impossible in the lands from which they come. Canada has long laboured under the disadvantage of misrepresentation, both as regards it • resources and its climate, but, at the same time, it must be admitted that it is onlj' within the last few years that the country has been ripe for the ir.flux of largo numbers of settlers to its millions of acres of unoccupied land. Emigration from Great Britain has in the past gone to increase the wealth aiul importance of the United Stii es, and, perhaps, for many years that was the only country, as already explained, in which largo numbers of people could bo annually absorbed. Now, however, all is changed, and there arc great British colonies in Canada, in South Africa, and in Australia, all crying out for population, and it is to be hoped that their cry will not be in vain. No man or woman need go away from the Empire nowadays. Tliere is land for all, and employment for all who are willing to work, and are able to adapt themselves to the exigencies of colonial life. The adu. tages of Canada may bo summed up as follows : — a country of magnificent proportions ; a climate that commends itself to everyone who has experienced it ; an inexhaustible quantity of fertile land (the Government offers free grants to eligible settlers) only awaiting cultivation to grow in abundance all the food products, animal and vegetable, of temperate climates ; immense wealth in lumber, in minerals, and in fisheries ; a rapidly developing manufacturing industry ; thousands of miles of railway, not only for local communication, but giving access to the Atlantic and the Pacific coasts, and to the markets of the world ; and an excellent system of canals for internal navigation. Taxation is light ; the public debt does not bear heavily upon the people ; education i.s free in almost every province; an excellent system of municipal government prevails ; both local and external trade is increasing in a satisfactory manner ; and the material condition of the people, as shown by the ordinary bank returns, by the deposits in the savings- banks, and other financial statistics, is most gratifying. It is not a matter for surprise, therefore, that Canadians should believe in the future before their country, and feel confident that, before long, thou- sands of people will respond to the invitation to come and share with them the great advantages that arc to be found in the Dominion. If these anticipations are realised, and it will be remarkable if they are not, there is little doubt that the next ten years will see a pro- gress in Canada which has not been witnessed in any previous decade of her history. J. G. COLMEK.