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Un des symboles suivants apparattra sur la derniftre image de cheque microfiche, selon le cas: le symbole — ► signffie "A SUIVRE", le symbols V signifie "FIN". re Maps, plates, charts, etc., may be filmed at different reduction ratios. Those too large to be entirely included in one exposure are filmed beginning in the upper left hand corner, left to right and top to bottom, as many frames as required. The following diagrams illustrate the method: Les cartes, planches, tableaux, etc., peuvent dtre filmte i des taux de reduction diffdrents. Lorsque le document est trop grand pour Atre reproduit en un seul cliche, il est filmA d partir de Tangle supirieur gauche, de gauche d droite, et de haut en bas, en prenant le nombre d'images n^cessaire. Les diagrammes suivants illustrent la m6thode. ly errata 9d to nt ne pelure, ifon A n 1 2 3 32X 1 2 3 4 5 6 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE THE TSAH, NICHOLAS II. STATES UROFE THE F THE PARLIAMENT OF PEACE SY V' < ■ '-'oaAso & CO*"'-'" » wit lU. T3^AR. >'?••' ■ -H ■tt rhe UNITED STATES OF EUROPE ON THE EVE OF THE PARLIAMENT OF PEACE BY W, T. STEAD f*'-''!^^ r -3 a 3 oo a if o PREFACE vU Petersburg, Moscow, Sebastopol and Yalta. At Yalta I had the lionor of being twice received by the Tsar at Livadia. Ketiirning to Sebastopol, I took the steamer to Constantinople. The Orient Express brought me to Sofia, the capital of the Principality of Bulgaria, from whence I passed by Belgrade and Buda Pesth to Vienna. From Vienna, I went by Florence to Rome. On my way home I called at Cannes, Geneva and Berne, revisiting Paris on No- vember 26th, and reaching London on November 28th. In one respect I was advantageously placed for hear- ing the views of trained and experienced observers. Most travellers consider themselves luckv if tliev can count upon the assistance cf one Ambassador in each country which they visit. I, fortunately, can always call upon three. Born in Britain, and carrying on business in America, I found myself equally at home in the British and American Embassies ; while Russia has so long been to me as a second country, that her Ambassadors were at least as helpful as those of the English-speaking nations. Besides these official representatives, I naturally found myself everywhere at home Vv-^h the unofficial ambassadors of the public, who, under the imassuming guise of newspaper correspondents, do much more to form the opinion of the civilized world than all the ambassadors, ministers, and plenipotentiaries put to- gether. Without their aid, generously afforded me wherever I w^nt, it would have been idle to attempt VIU PREFACE such a rapid survey of the Continent as I venture to present in these pages. It would be the maddest presumption to pretend that in a rush round Europe, begun and completed in less than three months, anything can be obtained be- yond a series of general impressions, instantaneous photographs as it were, of the ever-shifting panorama of Continental politics. But on the two points to which I specially addressed myself it is perhaps not too much to hope that I may at least have succeeded in bringing into clear relief the salient features of the situation. Everywhere I asked what the men of the Old World thought of the newest New World that had suddenly revealed itself beyond the seas. Every- where also I asked what about the Peace Conference to which the world had been summoned by the Tsar. Incidentally, of course, I treat upon many other sub- jects, but the answers to these inquiries form the central essence of this book. I have drawn freely upon the letters and articles which in the course of my tour I contributed to the Daily News, the Associated Press of America, and the Review of Reviews. In conclusion, I may take the opportunity of an- nouncing that should this Annual meet with public appreciation, I hope to begin with the twentieth cen- tury a series of Annuals which would provide the gen- eral reader with a more or less comprehensive survey of the movements of the twelvemonth, written from a special standpoint after personal converse with the PREFACE IX sovereigns and statesmen, the diplomatists and jour- nalists of Europe. Of year-books of the statistical and dry-as-dust order there are enough and to spare. But of Annuals written to be read, and not merely to be referred to, I do not know of one. WILLIAM T. STEAD. Review op Reviews Office, Mowbray House, N^orfolk Street, London, W.C. Jantiary Ut, 1899. if A I ; ; I CONTENTS PART I TOWARDS THE FEDERATION OF THE WORLD CHAP. I. U.S.A. AxVD U.S.E. II. Links and Barriers III. The Capital of the Continent IV. The European Concert , V. EUROPA PAQE 1 8 25 38 54 PART II ENGLAND IN 1808 I. The Pashoda Fever • • • ♦ • II. The Chinese Puzzle ...... III. HiSPANIOLIZATION PART III THE NORTHWESTERN ST A TE3 I. Belgium II. France III. Germany IV. The Minor States op Europe .... xi 83 115 145 173 188 211 226 i I Xli CONTENTS PART IV RUSSIA OF THE RESCRIPT CHAP. I. At St. Petersburo in 1898 . II. The Peace Rescript III. Two Letters from St. Petersburg IV. M. Witte and His Work V. A Russian Cobden .... VI. The Ideas of Prince Ouchtomsky VII. The Emperor of Peace PAGB 283 252 280 297 308 319 345 i 't PART V POSSIBLE OUTCOMES I. America and Russia IT, Constantinople .... III. From the Capital of the Old V/orld IV. What will the Outcome be ? V. A Pilgrimage of Peace 395 411 428 448 460 !l LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS The Tsar, Nicholas II Sir Horace Rumbold . Lord Currie Sir Edmund Monson . Sir Nicholas O'Connor Mr. Saundees Mr. Dobson . M. DB Blowitz Mr. Lavigno TuK itfciCHSTAG Building, Berlin The REicHi;RATH, Vienna . Queen Wilhelmina op Holland The Late Quei:n of Denmark Queen Margharita of Italy The Empress of Germany . Emperor William of Germany Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria-Hunga Kino Oscar of Sweden The Kino of Servla Count Goluchowski Count Thun Herr Von Kallay The Heir Apparent of Austria-Hungary M. DupuY . ... The Late President Faure M. Hanotaux • • • M. Delcass^ Major Marchand Sir Edward Grky, M.P. . Right Hon. John Morley, M.P. Frontispiece RY FACING PAUE 10 . 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 56 56 . 58 . 58 58 . 58 G6 66 66 66 72 72 72 72 84 84 84 84 86 90 90 7. 1 tiv LIHT OF ILLUSTRATIONS I- ■'Y If I ' Right Hon. II. TI. Asquith, M.P. Right Hon. Sir Henry Fowi.fp MP The Marquis of Salisbup' The Rt. Hon. A. J. Bau Ji^. The Rt. Hon. Lord Rosebery The Rt. Hon. Joseph Chamberlain Sir Claude Macdonald Lord Curzon op Kedleston The Hon. W. P. Schreiner Lord Aberdeen . Dezos Szilaoy Baron Banff y M. TiszA .... Maurus Jokai M. Drumont M. Pressens^ M. ROCHEFORT M. Georges Clemenceau Leopold, Kino of the Belgians M. Cremer .... The Crown Prince of Belgium The Queen of Belgium M. Beenaert M. WOESTE . Baron Von Eetvelde M. d'Alviella The Paris Bourse The Arc de Triomphe, Paris M. Brisson M. Bruneti^re M. Jaur^s General Zurlinden Ex-Captain Dreyfus General Mercier Ex-Colonel Picquart Count Esterhazy Dr. Richter Count Herbert Bismarck Herr Liebknecht FAc™o FAOB 90 90 94 94 94 94 130 130 130 130 153 153 153 153 168 168 168 168 176 176 176 176 186 186 186 186 188 188 190 190 190 190 208 208 208 208 214 214 214 \ LIST OF ILLUiiTKATlOSS XV riKRU BeHEL . Prince Hohenloiik Dr. von Miquel . Prince Henry of Prussia Sir F. Lascelles . M. SeBQIUS WlTTE Prince Kolropatkin . m. goremvkin Prince Khilkoff . M. DE Nelidoff . Count Muraviefk . Prince Ourosoff . M. ZiNOVIEFF The Kremlin, Moscow The Tsarina On the Road from Livadia Balaklava Town and Bay An Italian Representation M. Geveshofp Prince Ferdinand M. Zankoff . Dr. Yankoloff Marquis di Rudini King Humbert T. of Italy SiGNOR Son NINO General W. F. Dkaper The Palais de Justice, Brussels The Houses of Parliament, Rome : The Kino Leavin AFTER Delivering his Speech from the Throne Cardinal Jacobini Cardinal Parocchi Cardinal Rampolla Cardinal Steinhuber . St. Peter's and the Vatican, Rome The Capitol, Rome to Sebastopoi of the Russian Eagles PACINO 1>A(>B . 314 . 222 . 222 . 222 . 222 . 288 . 288 . 288 . 288 . 324 . 324 . 324 . 324 . 330 . 346 . 360 . 360 . 380 . 414 . 414 . 414 . 414 . 428 . 428 . 428 . 428 . 430 Q . 430 . 434 . 434 . 434 . 434 . 440 . 440 I! «v \i\' 1 LIST OF MAPS Map op Europe Showing Mr. Stead's Routk The U.S.E. and the U.S.A. ...... Map of Europe Showing International Railways and ItlVERS Map Showing Relation of Port Arthur to Talien- WAN— AS THE SpITHEAD PoRTS ARE TO SOUTHAMPTON Russian Manchuria ..... Map of the Yano-tse-Kiano Valley The Rest of Europe inside Russia ' :ap Showing Shrinkage op the Turkish Empire . Turkey in Europe FACING TAOE vi 10 23 120 126 143 353 412 434 IJ FACINO rA(iE vi . 10 AND [EN- 23 120 126 143 353 412 424 THE UNITED STATES OF EUKOPE PART I TOWARDS THE FEDERATION OF THE WORLD CHAPTER I U.S.A. AND U.S.E. " The United States of Europe " is a phrase natu- rally suggested by the United States of America. The latter enables the former to be at least thinkable. For a hundred years ihe world has been familiarized with the spectacle of a continually increasing number of independent and sovereign States living together in federal union. An experiment which has lasted so long, and which on the whole has borne such good fruits, naturally suggests the question whether a sim- ilar arrangement may not be the ultimate solution of many of the problems which perplex us in the Old World. It is true that the United States of America have not survived their century without at least one J! 1> U' THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE bloody war. But although for four years the Repub- lic trod knee-deep in the winepress of the wrath of God, the Union emerged from that ordeal not merely no weaker, but infinitely stronger than before. The war that saved the Union was infinitely more impor- tant because it secured the unitv of the American State, than even because it indirectly effected the emancipation of the negro. For it was the preserva- tion of the Union which enabled the Americans to escape the blighting curse of the Armed Peace against which Europe is at last beginning to rise in revolt. Thus the United States of Europe, the United States of America, and the Tsar's Rescript are all bound to- gether much more closely than might at first sight have been imagined. The United States of America, because tliev are united, have succeeded down to the present year in maintaining peace and order through- out their vast territories, and in building up one of the greatest of world powers, not merely without any resort to conscription, but even without any standing armv at all. It will be objected that, down to the outbreak of the recent war, the Americans had what was called a standing army. What they had was 25,000 Federal gendarmes — a force not twice as large as the total number of the London Metropolitan Constabulary. Tv^ow a force of 25,000 men in a nation of seventy millions can hardly be regarded as other than the sceptre of sovereign power wielded by the Federal Executive, a sceptre rather than a sword, the svmbol U.S.A. AXD U.S.E. 3 of sovereignty rather than the instrument by which it can be exerted. The collapse of the great Rebel- lion, the extinction of the attempt to found a slave Republic in the Southern States, enabled the Ameri- cans to escape the plague of hostile frontiers. Being united in a fraternal and federal Republic, they have had no occasion to build fortresses or to create forti- fied camps, nor have they, even in their nightmares, dreamed of subjecting the whole of their able-bodied youth to the enforced slavery of compulsory military service. Had the Confederacy triumphed, all this would have been altered, and two rival republics would have confronted each other north and south of a geo- graphical line which would have bristled with bay- onets, and frowned with cannon. The secret of their deliverance from this plague of the Old World must be found in the preservation of their Union. It is therefore natural, when the young War Lord of the greatest of European armies issued his memorable indictment of the armed system of the Old World, that Europeans should turn their eyes with wistful longing to the continent which has hitherto been im- mune to militarism, and which has exhibited to the world the greatest example of disarmament on record. IN'or is it surprising, perceiving the open secret of the way in which the Americans have escaped the worst forms of the malady which is eating out the vitals of the modern State, that dwellers in the Old AVorld should begin to ask themselves anxiously whether or not the ultimate solution of the problem which will (i t ( <, li - ) I » 1^ ^ 4 THT'] USITED STATEH OF EUROPE be considered hj the Peace Conference is to be found in the realization of the conception which has hitherto ])een confined to idealists like Victor lingo or seers like Mazzini. In other words, the summoning of the Par- liament of Peace brings us within sight, if not within hailing distance, of the recognition of the United States of Europe. Such at least was the idea Avhich, in the autumn of 1808, led me to undertake for the first time a tour of the new (Continental (Commonwealth in posse^ with the twofold object — first, of seeing by personal experi- ence how far the nations and states Avere already for practical purposes welded into one; and secondly, dis- covering how far public opinion in the various capitals was prepared to -welcome the next step which it was pro])osed to take in the direction of settled peace. On the day before I started from London, j\rr. Neaf, the Euro])ean editor of the Associated Press — that organization which, from its hold on the newspapers of the United States, may be regarded as the keeper of the ear of Uncle Sam — asked me whether I would write him a letter from each of the capitals I visited, describing what the Old AVorld thought of the newest evolution of the Xew "World — the sudden flaming up of AuK^rican enthusiasm on behalf of the victims of Spanish oppression, and the consequent expansion of the ])oundaries of the American (Commonwealth. Closely alli'^l with tiiis evolution of American Im- perialisui was the apparition of the United States as an active competitor in the neutral markets of the w^orld. U.S.A. AXD U.S.E. I accepted the commission, and the contents of this volume are necessarily more or less inlluenced by the double task to which I addressed mvself. -Vt the same time I venture to hope that the very complexity of the study will add somewhat to the interest of the book. From one point of view Europe contemplates the United States of America as having- realized the ideal towards which the Kescript of the Tsar appears ulti- mately to point. On the other hand, Europe perceives the United States devoting tliemsel' es to a war of liberation, which, according to the tamiliar precedent, appeared to develop into a war of conquest; while sinniltaneously the American producer, already su- preme in the supply of produce of the soil, suddenly reveals himself as a formidable rival in all nutimer of manufactured goods. This last factor in the prob- lem, although regarded (as Count Goluchowsky pub- licly declared) with consternation and alarm, counts nevertheless as a very valuable element in the forces making for jieace and disarmament. It brings home to the average man the enormous advantages in in- dustrial competition which are enjoyed by a nation that is free to devote the whole of its inventive ea])acity to the arts of ])roduction, and to pass the whole of its youth into the factory and the null, without previously taking tithe of their years in the heavy corvee of the barracks. Thus at the same time that the United States of America afford the disunited States of Eiu'ope the sjiectacle of a great nation, orderly and k 6 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE t, ■♦ <* > I •il free, which has grown up to greatness without any more than a mere symbol of an army, the menacing ascendancy of the American producer in the markets of the world tends to drive the lesson home that the ways of militarism are the ways of death. In the long mn it may he found that the phenomenal increase of American exports in the year 1898 may do more to induce the acceptance of the Russian Emperor's pro- posals than all the appeals of the moralists and all the arguments of the philanthropists. " This is the way: walk ye in it," is the word uttered from the Tinperial throne of Muscovy, while from across the Atlantic comes as a deep response — " And if ye do not walk in it, ye will assuredly die." Die — not necessarilv hv the sword, hut hv the absolute in- ability of nations, weighed down with the ever-increas- ing burden of modern armaments, to compete with their disencumbered rivals. England, France, Ger- many and Italy have been desperately struggling for some years past to obtain possession of unopened mar- kets. They have spent millions like water in order to secure prior rights over great expanses of African and Asiatic territory which nvc only prospective mar- kets at the best; and all the while they ha >e ignored the fact that they are in imminent danger of losing control of their own market, and that while they may gain a more or less doubtful chance of a turnover of hundreds of thousands in distant continents, the in- crease of American exports to the European market is to be reckoned everv year bv millions. This economic U.S.A. AXn U.8.E. portent, to which for the moment the public turns a blind eye, will every day more and more assert itself, and more and more tend to compel the Old World to adopt the Xew World conditions, or to give up the struggle. What are the !New World conditions? They are these — all the States dwell together in Fede- ral Union, witliout hostile frontiers and without stand- ing armies, and with a greater expenditure upon edu- cation than upon armaments. There are other factors in the problem, no doubt; these are the chief. We in the Old World cannot hope to rival the vast re- sources of a continent which even now is but par^ii.Uy developed; but the fact that we are naturally handi- capped in competing with the virgin resources of the New World renders it all the more necessary that we should disembarrass ourselves of all the artificial im- pediments which render it difficult, not to say impos- sible, for us to hold our own in the struggle for exist- ence in the markets of the world. The United States of Europe, therefore, however remote it may appear to those who look merely at the surface of things, may be much nearer than even the most sanguin* amongst us venture at present to hope. L CHAPTER II LINKS AND BARRIERS \^ '> A tour round Europe seemed to me the most natu- ral way of bringing forcibly to my mind a sense of the factors Avhich impede this natural development. The problem can be approached from many points of view, and studied in many ways; but I elected to choose the simple method of going round Europe to see places and things for myself at first hand, and to form some kind of an idea as to what were the forces making for union, and what were those which tended to make the adoption of the federal principle difficult or impossible. To begin with, it is impossible not to be impressed with the contrast between Europe to-day and Europe a few centuries ago. Five hundred years ago it would have been practically impossible for me to have made the circular tour from which T have just returned. In the first place, the countries tlirough which I passed would not liaA^e been at peace one with the other; in the second place, I should have had great difficulty in obtaining permission to cross many frontiers, and thirdly, I should in some countries have been in im- minent danger of losing my life, or at least my liberty. LIXKS .WD liARRlKh'S Last year Europe was in profouiul peace. There was no dilHeulty whatever in (•'•ossing any frontier, nor did I ex])erience any more risk to life or liberty in travelling throngh the Continent than I should have done in making a tour round ]vent, or passing from New York to San r'raneisco. For travelling purposes Europe is already a eomnionwealth. But there are two relics of barbarism still remaining which compel tho wayfaring man to admit the existence of inde- j)endent, rival, or hostile states. The first is connnon to all countries; the second is confined to one or two. The first is a custom-house. l]ut for the pestilent nuisance of the doucnip, the tourist could go from the Xortli (^ape to (Jibraltar, from (^ape Einisterre to 'I'ransylvania, without ever being aware that he was passing from one jurisdiction to another. The uni- forms of the police and of the soldiery differ somewhat, but so also do the features of the landscape. Person- ally he would experience no more inconvenience in passing from France to Germany or from Belgium to TTolland, than he would in passing from New York into Pennsylvania, or from Illinois into ^linnesota. The second obstacle which stands in the way of this continental unitv is the maintenance in the two conn- tries of Pussia and the Ottoman Empire of the system of the passport. This passport — a nuisance at one time almost universal — has gradually retreated east- wards, until now no one ever asks to look at your pass- port outside Pussia and Turkey. Tt is not very pleas- ant for a Pussian or a friend of Pussia to have to 10 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE i i i ! ► bracket the two countries together; but in this matter of passports they are much of a muchness, Russia per- haps being even the worse of the two. Without a passport duly vised by Russian consular authorities, no foreigner can pass into the Russian Empire. With- out that passport duly surrendered to the police at e..ch town where he arrives, no foreigner can take up his abode in Russia. The same thing is true to a less extent in Turkey. These two countries, therefore, are outside the pale of passportless civilization. They belong to the States which, for domestic or other rea- sons, dare not make their territories free to mankind to come and to go. The United States of Europe, therefore, is as the United States of America in three parts of its surface, so far as travelling is concerned, plus the irritating reminder by the custom-house of the existence of frontiers; while over the rest of its surface it is as the United States of America, plus the custom-house and the passport. The great ideal of international freedom and union is to be found in the post-office. Wherever you see the red pillar-box, there you see a dumb prophet of the Millennium. The moment the stamped missive enters its ever open portal it becomes a citizen of the universe, free from all custom houses, and protected, by virtue of the Queen's head which it carries, in all lands, iri'espective of differences of nationality, law and religion. The International Postal Union is the avant-courier or John the Baptist of the Kingdom of Heaven, in which all frontiers would disappear and rWTOMINb S DAKOTA ■" /UTAH ; *"««'» •■■ Iftimt»l4, MM,% (ftmX-r- ' ' ' — ;C0io»iA0«; Ji^tte^-..^^^... :/:•;• ■■;•', • MAM AAA : • •' ; v••^^L^f•■•" ;..*.'l^;!; ^*V" *'"*:" A » M £• X / C O"-. Stmt, St»k aj fuft/n. )Mt€ B—ut4mnt$ . ekfJtmJt THE U.S.K. AND THE U.S.A. ^■>J i ( - , 1 1 LINKS AXD HARRIERS n all mankind would be made free of the planet in which they dwell. Often on my journey I witnessed, with a feeling of satisfaction not untinged with envy, the way in which the mail-bags were carried across the frontier without word or (question, while we luckless ones, who were not franked with a postage stamp, had to laboriously carry our luggage to the Zollhaus and wait until the custom-house official had made a more or less perfunctory examination of our belongings. It is true that the customs examination was in most cases exceedingly formal; in some, as in Switzerland, and in coming back to England, it was the merest form. But this only increases your irritation at the exasperat- ing worry and delay occasioned by a formality so mani- festly futile. How often did I sigh for the adoption of Sir Algernon AVest's sensible proposal, by which all the nuisance of custom-house examination was to be done away with — at least between England and France. Bu.t although it is nearly two years since he made his excellent suggestion, nothing seems as yet to have come of it. The only other institution in Europe which can bo compared to the post-office for the success with which it has triumphed over the limitations of frontiers and the restrictions imposed by short-sighted governments upon the free movement of men and things, is that marvellous agency by which it is possible for the trav- eller, with the aid of Circular Xotes, to draw whatever money he requires wherever he may be. I never used to cash my Circular T^otes without feeling a dumb 19 THE IMTED STATERS OE EUROPE (i 1 ' ) I > wonder at tlit; iiiarvclloiiH ingenuity of man and the skill with which he is able to do all things, if only '^ there is money in it." Instead of having to carry ronnd with me a pocketful of gold, I simply took in my pocket-hook a Imndle of Circular Xotes, utterly valueless to any one who had not got the circular which must be j)rodu( ed whenever they were cashed. Armed with these bits of paper, I found in every caj)ital, Oiie, or two, or sometimes three financial in- stitutions which were readv at a moment's notice to pay me down as much money as the Circular ^otes represented, without any deduction or trouble what- ever. You give no notice, but simply walk into the oftice, announce that you want so much money, and present notes for the amount required. In five or ten minutes the money is handed to you, calcuhited carefully at the current rate of exchange of the day, and you depart, feeling impressed with the perfection of the organization of credit by which at a thousand different points in your journey, not in Europe only, but in other continents, you can convert a bit of paper, valueless to any one else, into gold, hy producing it and the corresponding circular in any of the agencies in connection with the central office. If, after the fashion of Orientals, you converted your cash into precious stones, you would only be allowed to enter the country after having paid tax and toll to the cus- tom-house; but thanks to the Circular Note you can snap your fingers at this institution, and cash your notes in a kingdom where no custom-house officer can I'/i rhotor/niiili hi; />,' l.i{A( K i!r.Mn(»i,i> F.llctl uikI Fill i.oKi) < ritiiiK Hoinc Eliluit and Fri/ Elliott ami Fnj sill KDMINI) MOXSOX silt M( HOLAS (AoNXOH ' """ C'oimtantiiioplo LEADING IJKITISII AMBASSADOUS OX THE ("ONTIN'ENT iS' i\ LIXKS AXD BARRIERS 18 interfere. Ihe Circular Xote is the nearest approacli to an international currency wlii.ch we have arrived at, for unlike coins of the realm, Circular iS'^otes are con- vertible in every land and at the full current rate of exchange. I was exceedingly fortunate in being saved the diffi- culties of the two worst custom-houses through which I had to pass. I had a laissez-passev from the Russian Embassy, which cleared me from all the inquisition at AVirballen. Thanks to the timely kindness of ^1. Kroupensky, who has now succeeded ^[. Pavloff at Pekin, I was able to evade the Turkish custom-house altogether, as I landed from the Sebastopol steamer in the Russian guard-boat. Only once was there a question of paying as much as a single penny on my higgage. I had bought a Bulgarian peasant dress for my daughter, and narrowly escaped having to pay duty upon it as wearing apparel not for my o^vn use, when I crossed the frontier from Servia into Hungary; biit the cusiom-house officer was merciful, although ho mildly lamented that I had not sent it through under seal. But from first to last, in a tour round an oval which had London and Sebastopol as its two extreme points, I had much less inconvenience from the custom house than what one hundred years ago I should liave experienced in passing from Rotterdam to ^'ienna. Tt mav be difficult to see how the custom- house is to be finallv abolished, but alreadv its incon- veniences ar(> minimi/ed; and if the fhmanc does not bear in its visage the evidence of galloping consump- ■i t ; ti .;J fi 14 Ti/£; UNITED HTATEH OF El ROPE tion, it seems to be in a decline wliicli, under the impulse of modern ideas, will probably be accelerated. As for passports, that is a more difficult question. Certainly in Turkey and in the states, such as Servia and Bulgaria, which have been carved out of the ruins of the Ottoman Empire, the utility of the passport is not very obvious. Whether it can be dispensed with in Russia is a matter upon which a non-Russian is not competent to express an opinion. The utility of the passport from the point of view of keeping out danger- ous characters or inconvenient visitors is not very obvious to the stranger, who soon discovers that the people whom it is sought to keep out are always those who have their passports in the most splendid order. Of course there is a great deal to be said in favor of a system by which no person can move a step without an authentic document duly certifying who he is, and where he comes from, and all about him; but in prac- tice the passport system falls far short of this ideal. Those persons who have least reputation have the most passports, and the less regular a man may be in his life, the more scrupulous he is that there shall be no complaint as to the regularity of his official papers. I am not, however, either defending or complaining of what exists. I am only endeavoring to explain what are those things which differentiate the ITnited States of Europe from the United States of America. Whon we leave those elements which tend to dis- union and come to consider those which tend to bring about the formation of the United States of Europe, LINKS AND BARRIERS 16 it will be a surprise to some that the institution of monarchy holds a high place. AVe are so much under the influence of the poetry and political writing of generations when wars were common, that it is diffi- cult for us to understand that the world has changed since then. The poetry of the beginning of the cen- tury has as its note the assumption that tlie wars which afflicted mankind were the direct product of the rapa- city of monarchs. The " monarch-murdered soldier " was an excellent phrase, which has been carried down for generations. When Byron describes the innocent mirth of a Spanish festival, he cannot refrain from exclaiming: — " Oh, monarchs ! couH ye taste the mirth ye mar, Not in the toils of glory would ye sweat, The hoarse dull drum would sleep, and man be happy yet." lli^ That superstition as to the war-making influence of monarchy dies hard; but if we look at things as they are, there is very little room for continuing to cherish tlie delusion that blinds us to the real sources of tlie perils which menace the peace of the world. Of this I was continually beinp" reminded in my journey round Kiirojie. The day T arrived at Brussels was the day on which the memorial mass was being said for the Empress- Queen, Elizabeth of Austria-TTuucrarv. ITer death bv tlie knife of the assassin placed one-half of Europe in mourning; and the death of the Queen of Denmark, which occurred immediately afterwards, was even 16 THE UNITED ISTATES OF EUROPE 'S it If' Y \ more widely felt. The death of " the grandmamma of Europe," as she was familiarly called, was incident- ally the cause of delaying the publication of this " Christmas Annual " until the month of March. Her daughter, the Dowager Empress of Iluesia, wished to liave her son, the Emperor Xicholas, at the funeral. This compelled him to leave Livadia, cross llussia, and repair to Copenhagen, where he remained for a fort- night. My interview was thcrefora postjioncd until his return. These are only trifles, hut they serve as reminders of the closeness of the family tie which unites one country with the other. Our own royal family has ramifications which cover Europe. The Emperor of Jiussia and the Emperor of Germany are l)oth nephews of the Prince of Wales, whose brother- in-law is the King of (Jreece, and whose son-in-law will be King of Ttoumania. If the ultimate ideal of Europe is to become one family without any barriers separating one from the other — a family, all the members of which are famil- iar enough to be interested in each other's affairs, to attend each other's weddings, to go into mourning for each other's deaths — then Royalty has attained what the rest of mankind will oidy attain after some cen- turies. The monarchical families form a group which, from a physical and physiological point of view, is even too closely united. Marrying in-and-in has con- sequences which are not by any means calculated to contribute to the robustness or to the intellectual vigor of the stock. Indeed, one eminent man, whom I LINKS AND BARRIERS 17 heard at Rome, is devoting- no end of time and atten- tion to a demonstration of the thesis that all dynasties are dying out, and must die out by the nature of things and by the law of the universe. It may be so, but the process is a slow one, and they will not perish before they have familiarized mankind with the spectacle of an international family group, speaking practically a common language, having common interests, and capable of understanding each other from the in- side. Signer Sonnino, with whom I had a long, interesting- con versation at Rome, told me that he considered the coming century would be a monarchical century, and that that monarchical principle, which had been some- what depressed since the days of the French Revolu- tion, was destined to be re-vindicated in the years ^hat are to come. However that may be, there is no doubt that our Queen by the vigor of her intellect, the keen- ness of the interest which she has taken in public af- fairs, the marvellous memory with which she has been blessed, and her strong sense of the obligations of family relationship, has done nmch to reestablish the monarchical idea. Tier correspondence with the mem- bers of the royal caste or royal family throughout Europe is, and has always been, carefully kept up. TTence, all monarchical States have at their head a semi-cosmopolitan European fr.mily, capable of acting as a telephonic system for the Continent. France, which is outside this roval rinc, mav have her compensations elsewhere, but she certainly suffers 2 I i ) ' ! ■f 18 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE deprivations in the lack of continuity of tradition, and of the permanence of persons who direct her policy. The uneasy consciousness of this is one of the causes, when the compensating advantages of the Republic seem to fade away, which leads to the perpetual re- newal of the talk of Restoration, even after thirty years of the third Republic. Whether Ave regard the recrudescence of monarchy as a symptom of reaction or as a sign of progress, there is no doubt as to its existence. What we have to do is to make the most of it and to recognize in what way it makes for progress. After Royalty, it is probable that the most potent things tending to make Europeans conscious of the unity of the Continental Commonwealth are the tele- graphic agencies, such as Renter's, the Ilavas, and others, which, chiefly through the daily papers, con- tinually distribute the political and social gossip of the Continent among the nations. Let no one overlook the value of gossip in the formation of the ties which bind men together. Take away family gossip, and the family would in most cases become a mere skele- ton, v/ithout flesh, blood or nervous system. It is by the kindly gossip of the fireside, in which every one talks about everybody else, that the sense of family union is created and preserved. The chatterers of the telegraph who, in every capital, carefully extract the kernel of grain from the bushel of chaff, and telegraph all round the Continent such items of intelligence as may be of general interest, contribute probably the LINKS AND BARRIERS 10 most constantly potent influence that can be discov- ered in the growth of that common sentiment which is the precursor of common action in support of the Commonwealth. Great and ubiquitous is the tele- graphic agency. Our fathers used to think that the newspaper represented the highest organized intelli- gence, seeking day and night for information with which to feed its ever hungry press. But no news paper, not even the Times itself, can bear comparison with the telegraphic agencies, such as Keuter's, the Ilavas, and the Associated Press, for the collection and distribution of intelligence. Every great newspaper is more than a collector of news: it is always a com- mentator, and usually a preacher of its own ideas. A telegraphic agency is neither of these things, and dis- seminates news only. It is creedless alike in politics and in religion. Its sole duty is to see the nuggetty fact in the amount of dross brought to surface by the illimitable labor of the human race, and promptly to put that nuggetty fact into general circulation. Hence, no river can burst its dam in Northern Italy, or in remoter Roumania, and sweep away any appre- ciable number of the human race to a watery death, but the fact is served up the next morning at all the oreakfast tables of the Continent. And here again the Royalties, in addition to the service which they render to unity by the creation of a family that is prac- tically co-extensive with the Continent, are hardly less useful in the supply of that personal gossip ^\diich is always most appreciated by the average man and ' I 1 20 THE irSITED STATES OF EUROPE '1 woman. The birth and the death, the betrothal and tlio marriage, the accident, and even the scandals of tlic Hoyal caste, arc all food for gossip; and in this fashion tlie telegraph wire and the Royal and Im- ])erial dynasties act and react npon eacli other. The King of Lillipnt cannot sprain liis ankle without the fact ])eing a snl)ject for comment and of interest tlironghont the whole (Continental area. A thousand greater men than lie might break their necks with- out the fact being considered of sufficient interest to be chronicled. Therein consists the superior utility of the Kingdom of Lilliput. Thrones are but pedestals on which human beings stand visibly above the crowd, and therefore objects of more general human interest than any of the undistinguished mass below. The railway and the telegraph are both becoming more and more international instituti >ns. There are still, no doubt, shreds of nationalism left in the man- agement of the telegraphs of the world, but on the Avhole tliev tend more and more to become a common ■ nerve-centre of the whole human race. But the rail- way and telegraph arc subjects which must be dealt with in a separate chapter. There is a steady approximation to unity through- out the Continent. AVe have not yet a European coin- age, but throughout the Latin countries there is an international currency, and sooner or later Europe will have a common currencv. The railways and the telegraphs are inventions of ir. lutd J). 1)0(1 in ij Mlt. SAINDKHS r>i'!'iiii A". UV.v////, .V/. I',l,,-fl»n'[i Mil. DOIJSON St. ]'ctrrs!);;iL,' Bunj, I'nrix M. I)K JJI.OWITZ Va\U M. Loiniiitz, London Mlt. l.AVKiNt) TlIK TIMES" ••OWN"- (OKKKSPOXDKNTS l.\ HTKOPK. • \ i* -l i I ., ft r ! ! nil t!< i ) '■" ] ! 7 1 ^<;-- f! fV '-' 1> ,!: / /^, ;>^ CX) \^»; Jj 'tr> :x) >-..< ■< ^^-•» \.^..> CO CO ^ o rr- /? " I 4 LiyKS AXD liMHtlEnS 131 this c'ciitiiry, and they have, therefore, adapted tlieiii- selves, ahiiost from the outset, to the complex circum- stances of their environment. It is different with the great rivers of Europe, which were international highways long before Watt and Stephenson taught steam to do the haulage of the world, or electricians harnessed the lightning as the Ilermes of the modern 01ymi)us. All the traffic upon such great arterial Avaterways of the Continent as the Kliine and the Danube has long been subject to in- ternational control and regulation. At this point wo reach a further stage in the evolution of the United States of Europe. In the case of the railways it may be regarded to a great extent as unconscious, inasmuch as the Internationa] Railway Bureau has no direct con- nection with the Foreign Offices of the world. It is different with the Hiverain Commissions. I'he navi- gation of the Danube is indeed one of the most inter- esting illustrations of the way in which the European Powers modify the machinery of their joint action for the purpose of securing efficiency of working. At the outset, the River Danube was under the control of the six great Powers and Turkey. But the practical management of the river now is intrusted to a com- mission of th(^ Riverain States, plus one delegate from the great Powers. That is to say, the International Danube is managed by a committee o^ five, one dele- gate being appointed for six months by each of the great Powers in turn, while there are four permanent delegates appointed by the Riverain States of Austria, j! til I 22 THE I' SI TED l^TATES OF EL ROPE Bulgaria, Koiuiiunia and Servia. This is interesting in more ways than one, because it establishes the prin- ciple of the api)uintnient of a European delegate on the princi])le of rotation. Each representative of the great Powers only holds his seat for six months, so that each great Power has only one turn in three years. The European delegate, however, altliough represent- ing his own State, is in reality the representative of the United States of Europe, and in that capacity de- fends the general interest, in case it should be attacked, in the interest of the Kiverain States. Another principle which it embodies is that a great Power when it happens to have local interest is not debarred from having two representatives when its turn comes round to appoint a general delegate. Austria, for instance, has its permanent delegate, and once in three years it has a general representative as one of the Committee of the great Powers in the affairs of Europe. The third principle, we shall see, bears directly upon the question of the status of Bulgaria. According to the Treaty of Berlin, Bulgaria is part of the Ottoman Empire. It is a tributary State. Strictly speaking, it is the Sultan, and not the Prince of Bul- garia, who should nominate the delegate on the Danu- bian Commission, who represents the Riverain Prin- cipality. The Sultan, however, can only appoint a general delegate as one of the signatories of the Treaty of Berlin, while the right of Bulgaria to appoint its permanent reprcsentati^'e on the Riverain Commission is recognized. Acting on this precedent, we shall find 'A H 'A H 'A, A, W Oh o D W o < fi f ( » ': h \ 1 \ LINKS AND BARRIERS 23 that Bulgaria will expect to be represented at the Peace Conference, altliongli it would, I believe, be the first occasion at wliicli a ("ributary Principality has claimed to sit at the (!Ouncil-board with its own suzerain. From the regulation of international rivers on the Continent it is bnt a short step to the European Con- cert, which primarily exists for the safeguarding of that great international waterway known as the Bos- ])horus and the Dardanelles. Peduced to its essence, this, and very little else but this, is the basis of tlie Concert of the Powers formally estal)lished by the Treaty of Paris in 1850, and asserted anew at the Berlin Congress of 1878. Behind all the fine prin- ciples which are invoked in the diplomatic instruments governing the complex congeries of problems known as the Eastern Question, the bedrock of the whole, the kernel, the central essence, is this supreme question as to the international regulation of the waterwavs connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Be- cause the Turk squats astride of both sides of these famous Straits, the Turk has been a European interest for at least a century. He is no longer regarded as an exclusively British interest, but his charmed life is due to the fact that he is keeper of the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus, and in that capacity he possesses the merit of utility, which in the eye of many is more efficacious than charity in covering a multitude of sins. In order to deal with a question of such inter- national interest, international action was necessary. i I I - 24 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE f~ Hence the intervention of the principle of the Euro- pean Concert, that great and fertile principle which, more than anything else, holds within it the promise and potency of every form of international develop- ment. If'' iJ i J I 4' I ^ M ',«. V i-; CHAPTER III THE CAPITAL OF THE COXTII^ENT On returning from Rome, at one time the capital of the world, and still the capital of that section of the Christian Church M'hich recognizes in the Roman Bishop the successor of St. Peter, I made a detour in order to v. dt Berne, which is the nearest approxima- tion there is in Europe to a common capital. At Berne it was my good fortune to make the acquaintance of M. IS^uma Droz, the head of the International Railway Bureau, which is one of four international administra- tions that have their seats in the federal capital of Switzerland. M. Xuma Droz is a very remarkable man, and I met no one in my tour whose conyersation was at once so intelligent, so reasonable, and so hope- ful. A man still in the prime of life, he has served his country in almost every capacity, from the Presi- dent of the Republic downwards. "When the Euro- pean Powers were puzzled as to the best international representative to nominate for tlie Cioyernorship of Crete, their choice f' ^^ upon M. Droz, and afterwards, when the task of restoring order was entrusted to Prince George, it M-as again to ^I. Xuma Droz that they turned when they wished to provide a typical, r i m 4 1 t ' ^ ) ■' . 1 20 THE UNITED kiTATE^ OF EUROPE • C^ ' / I' fl > t! h sensible, trustworthy European to hold the balance even between the various interests in the island. A man of judicial temperament, with great administra- tive exjierience, M. Xnma Uroz is at once a patriotic Swiss and a broad-minded citizen of the world. Should he 'e selected as the re resentative of Switzer- land at the Conference of Poacf, there will be no dele- gate from any of the great Powers who will command greater respect or whose judgment will carry greater weight. In February last year M. Droz read a paper at a conference in Zlirich, in which he described the organ- ization and the work of the international bureaus at Berne. It is one of the most interesting and sugges- tive papers that I came across in my run round Europe. In it he described with admirable perspicacity and brevity the rapid growth of these central bureaus, which are to the United States of Europe like the ice- crystals which form on the surface of the water before the cold is sufRcientlv intense to freeze the whole sur- face into one solid sheet. These international bureaus represent the evolution of what may be called the Con- tinental ganglia of nerve centres, and each of them may be regarded as an embodied prophecy of the com- ing of the United States of Europe. And not only the United States of Europe, but the United States of the World. For the area which three of those admin- istrations represent is far wider thjin that of any single continent. As M. Droz said, there is no doubt that U^e formation of these international bureaus is one of THE CAPITAL OF THE CONTINENT 27 the most interesting and hopeful signs of our epoch — that these international organizations have been cre- ated by the Governments in order to serve the ends oi civilization. As a Switzer, M. Droz is naturally proud of the fact that four of these should have their head in the capital of his own country. There are other bureaus which have their seats elsewhere. For instance, the International Bureau of Metrical Weights and IMeasures is domiciled in Paris. The Bureau Geodesique is seated at Berlin, while ^t Brus- sels there are two international bureaus, one which arranges for the publication of the customs tariffs of all nations, and the other is concerned with the sup- pression of the slave-trade. But at Berne they glory in the possession of four, as many as are to be found in all the rest of the world put together. These are the bureaus of the International Postal Union, the Telegraphic Union, the Union of Inter- national Pailways, and that which looks after Patents, Copyrights and Trade-marks, which are sunmied together under the common title of " Intellectual Property." AVhen we were children, we used to hear much con- cerning " Commerce, the white-winged peace-maker," and have only, after a series of disillusions, wakened to the fact that in the present day commerce has be- come the pretext, if not the cause, for most of our international quarrels. It is, therefore, with a pleas- ant surprise, such rs one feels when discovering that a fairy-tale of the nursery had been but a poetic em- , :i I'll 4' il ■It I 'I 'I 28 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE \' i ! ; \ bodiiiiciit of a seientiiic fact, that we come upon the following passage in M. Droz's paper : — It is the chief glory of commerce to be the principal agent in drawing nations together. It is of no use to try to isolate them by making the walls of the custom-house as thick and as high as possible; trade has an expansive force and a subtle pervasiveness so great that in the end it always succeeds in overcoming or overthrowing these obstacles. It is useless to try to keep up with jealous and also legiti- mate solicitude the national spirit of each people; commerce knows how to combine the great interests which they have in common, thanks to which all nations only form one universal family. As far as trade is concerned, diversity of languages is no barrier, as they can be learned; distance is annihilated, or, at least, reduced to its narrowest limits. For the most part, trade asks little from the State, as it is accustomed to settle its own difficulties in its own way, and the State rather hinders it in its movements. But there are two things which it needs most certainly and most im- peratively: one is rapidity and exactitude in its relations, the other is legal security. Of these various Lnreaus, no^v located in what may be regarded as the incipient capital of the Continent, the first, which was established in 18G5, related to telegraphs. The second was the Postal Union, which was established in 1874; while the bureau dealing with trade-marks and patents was founded in 1883, and its function was extended to deal with copyrights in 188G. The International Railway Bureau, over which ^r, Droz presides, was the latest born of all, having only come into existence in 1890. The motive which led to the foundation of these bureaus w-as in all cases the same. Telegraphs, post-offices and railways had TRE CAPITAL OF THE CONTINENT 29 relations with each other before they established a coinraon centre to act both as a clearing-lionse and as a supremo conrt of appeal for the settlement of tlieir various differences, just in the same way as the present governments of Europe have relations with each other. But before the conventions establishing tlie bureaus, these relations created no end of friction and caused almost as many questions as those wliicli at present exist between neighboring States in the polit- ical sphere. M. Droz says: — Letters used to pass from one administration to another, by each of which a tax was imposed, and this caused ex- pense and delay. It was the same with telegraphic mes- sages. There was no international protection for inventors, proprietors cf trade-marks, or authors. And with regard to railway transport, new regulations were found at every frontier, the times of delivery were not the same, indem- nities in case of loss or damage depended on the caprice of officials; it was impossible to discover who was in fault, or against whom a charge could be made. It was the most utter juridical confusion. It is the difficulties of the vroild which pave the way for the solutions of its problems. But for our difhcul- ties we should make no progress — a salutary doctrine which is a constant consolation to the reformer. Tliesc l)ureaus were not established without considerable misgivings, and even now, although they have func- tioned and functioned well for vears, it is necessarv for them to be very prudent, since the respective adminis- trations of the various States are as jealous of their autonomy and as prompt to resent any in^ingement >iti| 30 TEE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE I I' n 1 1' f !i li of their sovereignty as if they were high contracting parties dealing with territorial or political rights. Keverthpless, they have managed in spite of those jealousies and misgivings to do very good work — do it so quietly that hardly any one knows it is being done at all. As all these bureaus are founded upon the same general principle, it is reasoitable to expect that t]i^ United States of Europe will ])robably follow the same road in the evolution of the Continental organization. M. T)roz says :- All the common features of these various Unions depend upon agreements, the wording of which is decided at con- ferences, partly technical and partly diplomatic, which meet from time to time to inquire into the changes and improve- ments which can be introduced into the general regulations. All of them, with the exception of that which has to do with railway transport, are concluded for an unlimited period, and the Staves can accede to them or withdraw at any time, by a simple declaration made to the Swiss Federal Council. With regard to the railways, on the contrary, the agreement is renewable by each State every three years, and the States may be consulted about the adhesion of new mem- bers. This last point is very important considering the in- terests v/hich are at stake. It would not be desirable to have in the Union railways which are either insolvent, or belong to countries whose law and whose law courts did not offer the most complete security. The cost of these international offices is very small. In 1896 the cost of the four was altogether only 370,- 000 francs, or, let us say, £15,000, a sum which is divided proportionately among the various States. In the railways, for instance, the charge is based upon the number of kilometers under the control of the Con- THE CAPITAL OF THE CONTINENT 31 vention. The importance and the nature of the func- tions of these international bureaus, which may be regarded as avant-vouriers of the Tnited States, of Europe that is to come, may best l)e studied by briefly describing each of them with some detaiL Beginning with the Telegraphic Bureau, M. Droz savs: — The working agreement applies to forty-six countries, containing 846 millions of inhabitants. It requires that States should have a sufficient number of direct telegraphic lines, for international telegraphy; it recognizes the r'rrht of every person to make use of them; it guarantees the secrecy of all communications; it fixes the order of priority for the dispatch of telegrams, with regard to their nature; it authorizes the sending of messages in cipher; it settles a universal charge, which is based, for European countries, on groups of three, ten, or fifty words, and for lands beyond the ocean, on the single word; it accepts the franc as the unit of coinage; it undertakes to send reply-paid and regis- tered telegrams. The bureau has many duties. Its first task is to collect, to coordinate and to publish information of every kind relating to international telegraphy. In discharging this duty, it publishes a general map of all the great telegraphic communications of the world, and other maps more detailed, one for Europe and the other for the rest of the world outside of Europe. It publishes a telegraphic journal, and carefully edits and reedits a list of the telegraph stations of the world. These stations now number 80,000, and as they are constantly chanffinc, it is no wonder that the list is now in the sixth edition. This is not so lieavv a task ^1 1r 'I !l 1 ' 82 THE UMTED STATES OF EUROPE 1 i i c 1 ■ M: ! J 1 li! M as tliat which is inulertakcu by the Postal Union Bu- reau, for tlicrc are iiOO,000 ^wst-ofHccs in the worhl. The bnrcau, tlicreforc, it will be seen, acts as a kind of intelligence department for the telegraphs of the world. Incidentally the bnrean has undertaken a task which, althongh a very long way removed from that of the construction of a cosmopolitan language, never- theless points in that direction. In passing on to the Postal Union, it is interesting to note that the formation of this International Bureau was first mooted by the United States of America even before their great Civil War was over. It is not less suggestive that the proposal, although uiade in 1863, led to no result beyond the publication of resolutions as to desiderata in postal administration which had no binding effect on any of the parties who took part in the Conference. Nevertheless, these desiderata being definitely formulated and ngreed to as desirable by the representatives of the various Powers, a foundation was laid, upon which the Union was founded eleven years later. The first Postal Conference was held in Paris; the second, which was summoned on the initi- ative of Germany, met in Berne, where an inscription in black marble commemorates the signing of the Con- vention which established the 2^d. rate for all letters within the limits of the Postal Union. It marked the transition of an organization previously organized upon a particularist national basis to the wider and more rational status of a cosmopolitnn institution. At the present moment the Postal Union includes fifty- ' THE CAPITAL 01' THE COSTLSEyT 33 ized and At pfty- nine States, or i^roups of colonial possessions, contain- ing, roughly stated, 1,000,000,000 inhabitants. The burean serves as a eleariiig-honse between the admin- istrations; it is ])('rpetnally (iigaged in settling dis- puted questions which arise and points as to the (ques- tion of interpretation, and it also acts as a kind of arbi- tral judge on litigious questions between the various administrations. In this case also it is very inqiortant to note, with a view to the future international devel- opment of the United States of Europe, that it is pos- sible to refer questions to the bureau for its opinion without entering into any preliminary obligation to abide by its decision. The Administration which deals with " intellc^uial property " was founded by the Convention of Paris in 1883; and it now includes sixteen States, with a population of 305,000,000 inhabitants. There is no need to describe its operations at length. Their nature can best be understood by the following statement of the services which the bureau is prepared to render: — If, therefore, you have ever any need of precise informa- tion concerning industrial property whicli you cannot obtain elsewhere, here you have an almost gratuitous source — the cost is one franc per consultation — a source at once im- partial and exact. In 1896, this bureau received or sent out 1,554 communications in connection with its inquiry de- partment. Another institution which places this bureau in direct contact with the public is that dealing with the international registration of trade-marks. The special arrangement relative to this is at the present time binding on nine States: Belgium, Brazil, Spain, France, Italy, Holland, Portugal, 8 m ii I ji-' I 84 TUE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE ■^ In hi ; ?^ ' I HJ h I ij Switzerland and Tunis. If you wish to protect a trade- mark in these countries, you may, after having registered it in the federal Bureau, send it to the international Bureau, together with a sum of 100 francs. This means a saving of time as well as of money, obviating, as it does, the necessity of registering in each separate country. The Union for the Protection of the Kights of Authors includes thirteen countries with 534,000,000 inhabitants. In the fourth great organization, which deals with International Hallways, England has no part. There arc only ten States represented on this International Institution, viz.: Germany, Austria-Hungary, Den- mark, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Holland and Swit- zerland. The network of railway thus submitted to the jurisdiction of the bureau is 173,000 kilometres. It deals at present only with the goods traffic; but al- ready the Russians, who somewhat oddly (according to English ideas) seem much more frequently to take the initiative in progressive internationalism than England, suggest that passenger traffic should also be placed under the control of the bureau: — The Convention is remarkable in this, that it unites all the European railroads belonging to it in one network of rails, worked under a common tariff as regards international transport, and in such a manner that all the managing de- partments are conjointly answerable, the one with the other, as regards any goods they have undertaken to carry, so that any one can sue either the sending or receiving agents with- out taking into consideration on what part of the system the damage or delay arose. Definite sums have been fixed In case of loss or damage, or if there is delay in delivering goods, for the mutual claims of sender and receiver, for the ^ i) TUU CAPITAL OF THE COyTINENT 35 demands of the customs, etc. All that concerns the trans- port of merchandise is arranged in so complete a manner that Swiss federal law has been copied word for word from the Convention. The Imrcau has a list of 2,000 international tarifTs to publish and a catalogue of all the railway stations open to international traltie, of which there are about 45,000. The International Railway Bun^iu is prac- tically an international arbitration court dealinc; with great institutions, whose revenue is considerably greater than that of many States: — It acts as an umpire to shorten litigation between different administrations when the different parties desire it. Here we have an institution which is of quite a novel character, and which is of great interest — a permanent tribunal in- stituted to regulate international differences. Generally speaking, railway bureaus arrange their dis- putes by special arbitration for each department of traffic. But for all that, interesting cases are brought before the permanent tribunal. These judicial functions, and those by which the Central Office has the right of intervention, at the request of one of the parties concerned, to arrange matters which have been left in abeyance, are destined in time to become more important still. It is possible to foresee the establish- ment of a court to facilitate monetary arrangements be- tween different administrations. When the institution, which is still in its infancy, has developed, there is no doubt that new departments will come into existence, and that those which already exist will develop still further. For Instance, Russia has proposed to regulate the transport of travellers and of merchandise, and this proposal has been already taken into consideration by the administration. ]\I Droz dwells with natural and patriotic pride on the fact that these bureaus, domiciled in Switzerland M h I H 'U\ 1; If \\ I; I ' ' ' 86 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE )^ 'I I and officered almost entirely by Swiss, have neverthe- less succeeded in functioning to the satisfaction of all the States whose interests they represent. It is a fact of good augury for the future pacific evolution of the Continental organism. To have assisted in the devel- opment of these centres for international organization is one of the services which Switzerland has rendered to mankind. Is it, then, too much to describe Berne, capital of Switzerland and licadquarters of so many international administrations, as the incipient Capital of the United States of Europe? Another potent factor in human progress is the in- ternational luagon-Ut which has hitherto attracted little attention from the statesman or the philosopher. It is a dumb thing, the icagon-lit, a dull, mechanic thing, inanimate, with neither heart, soul, conscience, nox* reason, but nevertheless it has achieved results wliich prophets and apostles and poets and seers have despaired of. Its fatherland is co-extensive with the metal track of tlie Continent, and every time it passes it erases, although with imperceptible touch, the fron- tiers which divide the nations. It is, indeed, the high- est exam])le of lunnan ingenuity in the matter of a locomotive dwelling-place. AVhat the Atlantic steamer is to the ocean, the wagon-lit is to the solid land. Its passengers no sooner cross its threshold than they be- come citizens of the world in a very real sense. N^ot even tln^ humble snail of the hedgerow is more com- pletely self-contained than your traveller in a wagon- Jil. lie has his own apartment, his bed-chamber, his i THE CAPITAL OF THE COyTINENT 37 dining-room, his lavatory ; tlie whole country is spread out before him on either side, in one endless gallery and panorama of living pictures. lie can be alone or in society as he pleases, lie can take his constitu- tional by walking down the long corridors while the train is speeding along at the rate of forty or fifty miles an hour. 1'he conductor waits ujwn him as a valet, the chef cooks for him, all manner of wine is provided for his delectation, he lives in a peripatetic palace as comfortably and as luxuriously as he could do in any hotel on the Continent. For him even the barrier of the douane is, if not abolished, at least minimized, and in many cases the examination of luggage is made on the car without any necessity for carrying of packages across the barrier to the place of revision. Comparo for one moment the ease with which I travelled around Europe, using the international ivagon-Ut wherever it was accessible, and the difficul- ties with which any monarch or prince of the blood would have had to deal only one hundred years ago in making the same tuiir. Xeither in speed, in comfort, nor economv could tlu! ureatest monarch in the world have traversed the same distance which a plain plebe- ian now covers without the slightest sense of strain or of physical exertion. Locomotion has really become not so much an exercise as a luxurv, and instead of regarding a journey of a thousand miles as an enter- prise entailing exertion and exposure, we have come to regard it as more or less a mode of recuperative recreation. II I n 1 ,1 I < IP i I' \ i' .1 CIIArTEK TV THE EUROPEAN CONCERT "No more signal instance of the possibility of mo- mentary aberration on the part of statesmen and peo- ples can be imagined than tlie (extraordinary way in which Mr. Gladstone and many of his followers took to blaspheming the European Concert in the last years of his life. All the cheap wit of the newspaper men of the world was launched npon the European Con- cert: it was slow; it was unwieldy; it might be a steam- roller, but a steam-roller which was stuck in the mud. A perfect hailstorm of criticisms and witticisms held up to ridicule and contempt what was, after all, the only principle which the European nations have yet discovered for the regulation of their joint affairs with- out bloodshed. Apart from its humanitarian aspect, the great political merit of ^h\ Gladstone's Eastern agitation of 1870 to 1S78 was due to his advocacy of the ])rinciple of the European Concert, and the grava- men of his impeachment of Lord Beaconsfield's harum- scarum Jingo policy Avas that he had wantonly de- stroyed the great instrument l)y which any improve- ments could be effected in the East. Lord Salisbury, fortunately, learned liis lesson well, and through good t i\ ' THE ElIfOI'EAN COXCEHT 39 report and tlirougli ill ho has cleaved to the principle of concerted action in dealing' with the Eastern (Ques- tion. In that Concert we have not onlv the germ of tlie United States of Europe, but an actual evolution and realization, although still very imperfect, of the conception of a federal centre of the Continent, which can not onlv deliberate, but on occasion can act. The Xew Year has opened auspiciously with the triumph — tardy but nevertheless genuine — of the principle of concerted action in Crete. The four Powers, acting in concert, have at last succeeded in expelling the Turkish troops from Crete without the exertion of any more than police force. There have been no pitched battles, and the Crescent has given place to the Cross without any of the desperate trials of strength between the Turk and the Creek which have marked the concession of autonomv to everv other Turkish province. There were massacres, no doubt, which might have been avoided; but there was no war: there was only an operation of police. There is in the settlement of C^retan att'airs a welcome precedent, in- dicating the road along wliich humanity has to travel. When the I.'nited States of Europe ome into or- ganic being as complete as that already enjoyed by the United States of America, they will still need armed forces to execute the decisions of the Federal (lovern- ment. It will be an international police rather than an international soldiery. Mankind ])asses through regu- lar stages in its progress towards peace. First, there is the primitive state of universal war, iu which every man •' !' r V i !: / t _ 11/ ; . f i •J I ' i! >t ' f! ',' h dO THE UXITJJJ) STATES OF EUROPE is free to slav his fellow-miin, if lie can and if he will. From that stage it is by a natural process of easy grada- tion that w(,' arrive at a i)eriod when the right of levy- ing war is i)ractieally contined to powerful individuals, feudal ehieftains and the like. They exercised the right of private war, which degenerated in many cases into brigandage, out of which Europe emerged, thanks to the evolution of the soldier. The trained fighting man of the central ])ower, whatever his faults may be, nevertheless represents an immense stride in progress from the armed bands of the soldiers of fortune and feudal chiefs who tilled Kurope with bloodshed in the later J\Iiddle Ages. AVe are now on the verge of the next ste]) of evolution — the conversion of the soldier into the policeman, 'llie final stage, of course, will come when humanitv has attained such measure of moral develo])ment as to stand in no need of coercive authority at all, when every one, as the American humorist puts it, '' can do as he darned well pleases," but when every one will only please to do what is right aud just to his fellow-men. Thnt ultimate ideal of the Christian and of the Anarchist lies far ahead, but on the road thither stands the evolution of the soldier into the policeman. Put ^"his will not be attained until the United States of Kurope have come into for- mal and juridical existence. In Crete we can see it on the way. Crete also has established the great prin- ciple that the unity of the European Concert is not destroyed when a couple of its members refuse to take any active ])art in giving effect to its decisions. We J I THE EUItOPEAX COXCERT 41 are therefore within nieasurahle range of seeing the establishment of a real federated Europe which will not be crippled by the principle of the liherum veto. At one time there seemed a great danger that this mistake wonld be committed. By the liherum relo, in the old Polish kingdom any one member of the Assembly could defeat any proposition by simply ut- tering his protest. In like manner it has been held that the six Powers must all keep step or they can do nothing at v.^i\ The necessary consequence was that the Powers were often reduced to impotence. But this is a passing phase. Sooner or later — probably sooner than later — it will be discovered tluit the lihe- I'um veto will be as fatal to Euro])o as it proved to Poland. In the European Areopagus decisions will have to be taken without absolute unanimity, and in this, as in other things, the minority will have to yield to the majority. Of course, each of the great Powers will always have a sovereign right to go to war to en- force its protest, if it should feel so disposed; but there is a very great difference between going to war to en- force your veto and securing the rejection of any pro- posal by simply recording your dissent. In this respect, Mr. Gladstone took a very significant initiative in the year 1 S80. K^o one had insisted more strongly -.ipon the maintenance of the European Con* cert as the one weapon with which it was possible to extort anvthing from the Sultan. But when IMr. Gladstone took in hand the task of enforcing the pro- visions of the Berlin Treatv, he found that one or more > I 42 THE VXITED .STATES OF EUROPE il '.' of tbe Powers were disposed to liang back. He suc- (•eeded with great difficulty in mustering an inter- national fleet in the Adriatic for the purpose of induc- ing the Turk to make the necessary cession of territory to ^lontenegro, but when the question arose as to what further measures should be adopted to enforce submis- sion to the demands which Europe had formulated, France and (Jermany drew back. Russia and Italy supported Mr. (Jladstone's generous initiative. Mr. Gladstone had then to decide M'hat should be done. If he had adopted the Jihernm veto theory of the Con- cert, and had meekly acquiesced in the doctrine that nothing shoukl be done unless all the Powers were agreed ns to what that something should be, the Turk would have snapped his fingers at the Powers, and vital clauses of the Berlin Treatv would m^ver have been executed. P)Ut ^Fr. Gladstone fortunately was made of different material. All tlie Powers had agreed as to what should be done. I'lie Turk himself has siiined the treatv which ceded territorv to Mon- ten(\iiro and Greece. There was, therefore, unanimity of opinion as to what sliould b'^ done; there was only difference of opinion as to how to carry it into effect. France, Germany, and Austria hung back, but Mr. (iladstone, with llussia and Italy at his back, decided to seize the Turkish custom-house at Smvrna, in order to enforce the Sultan's submission to the mandate of Europe. The three Powers which abstained did not, althoueh then- murmured and held aloof, absolutelv veto any such action on the part of their allies. Had h I : ! u THE EUROPEAN CONCERT 48 they done so, it would have been difficult for Mr. Gladstone to proceed, for Europe would then have been equally divided, three against three. As the matter stood, the three who were bent on action did not allow the refusal of the support of the others to paralyze their action. If in 189G Lord Salisbury could have secured the support of two other Powers, it is possible that he would have dealt as drastically with the Turk as ]\[r. Gladstone. Unfortunately, in the recent crisis we had not even a single Power at our back, and some of the Powers were believed to be ready to oppose our isolated action even by force of arms. Under these circumstances, with a strong majority in the European ( ouncil Chamber against action, the minority can only submit until such time as it has converted itself into a majority. It is probable that for some time to come the European (Concert will con- tinue to insist upon unanimity in defining the pro- posals which are to be made to the Turk, but the method of securing compliance therewith Avill be de- cided by a majority vote. AVe have come very near adopting this principle in the case of Crete. When it became evident that sub- mission to the will of Europe in Crete would entail expense and would mortally offend the Turk, Ger- manv withdrew and was followed bv Austria. Thev did not actually protest against the enforcement of the decree of Europe, but thoy repudiated any responsi- bilitv, and declined to take anv share in the active \ I I . i ! i I f I ■ j ! 't 44 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE U 1 11 i ' li: 1 = ' I operations. Undeterred by this shrinking from the logical consequences of their acts, the four Powers went on, and succeeded in putting the matter through, although not, unfortunately, until the conscience of England had been stirred up by the slaying of several of our own soldiers. Tnese details, however, will shrink out of sight when the historian of the future '"«,. vo describe the evolution of the United States c. Old AVorld. The broad fact is that the six Povv'ers i . ^'ng decreed, the four Powers carried out the decree. AVlien success was achieved, the spokes- man of the abstaining Powers publicl}'' approved of what was done, and remarked that four Powers were probably a more effective instrument than six in en- forcing a policy agreed upon by all. It is an awkward question whether the four Powers would have ven- tured to put the thing through, if the two, instead of merely deserting, had taken up an active policy of protest against any further military or naval action in Crete. Such an attitude at some future crisis will probably test the cohesion and the determination of the majority of the European Powers. Everything points in the direction of Europe having so much to do in providing for the liquidation of the Ottoman Empire that the six foreign ministers of the great Powers will become more and more a European Cabinet, who will learn the habit of working together under the daily pressure of events. If so, it would seem as if the Turk were going to make amends in the final years of his reign for the innumerable atrocities THE EUROPEAN CONCERT 45 which have been his cliief resource in government since the time he entered Europe. For if Europe can be accustomed to act practically as a unity, it wii in time bring about the United States of Europe, wiiich will be none the less welcome because it will be born of nnitual fear and distrust rather than of brotherly love and neighborly confidence. In the old myth, when Jupiter bore Europa across the sea, he landed her in tlie Island of Crete, where she bore three sons — Alinop Sarpedon, and Rhada- manthus. It was a curious coi> ndence that a Euro- pean army commissioned by tlie six great Powers, and acting under the collective r^rders of Europe, should for the first time have "uade its appearance on the Island of Crete. But tl.o coincidence was of happy omen, that the new Europa may bring forth, if not Minos the lawgiver, and Rhadamanthus the inexorable judge, at least a system of international law which will be interpreted by an international tribunal. In discussing elsewhere the question as to the forces which would tend to luring the United States of Europe into the most visible and tangible existence, I pointed out that there were two elements that were needed if the Federation of Europe was to be attained by the same road as that by which other federations had been brought about on a similar scale: — The first and the most necessary is the existence of some extraordinary force sufficiently powerful to necessitate the union of those whose existence it threatens. In other words, in order to found a Kingdom of Heaven it is neces- sary that you must have an effective working Devil. John \ t 'i ( » ' ' M •f r-i m I i : '■ 4G THE UXJTJJD STATERS OF EiJiOPE Bull in the eighteenth century was the incarnation of evil, in protest against which the American Union came into existence. In our own century it was the menace of French aggres- sion which alone possessed sufficient force to overcome the centrifugal tendencies of the German ijeoples. Where are we to find an adequate Devil to overcome the force of inertia as well as the more active elements of national rivalry and race antipathies, so as to bring about the federation of Europe? The other element which is lacking is a central power sufficiently strong to compel the recalcitrant States to come into the alliance. Of course it is a nobler ideal that free and equal States should voluntarily, of their own good- will, unite on a basis of absolute indei^ ndence. But human nature is not made that way. There is usually a recalcitrant minority which needs to be compelled to volunteer. Nearly every European State, England not excepted, represents the result of a process in which a strong central power has gradually crushed all rivals and established authority which is now recognized by consent, by the summary process of beheading or slaughtering those whose devotion to their private and local interests led them to refuse to cooperate in the larger unity. The most helpful analogies are to be found in the United States of America and the Republic of Switzerland. There the federation was established by the cooperation of the sovereign States without the need for the intervention of any predominant central power; but alike in Switzerland and the United States, the federation which began in goodwill had to be enforced by the armed hand, and we need not be surprised if the United States of Europe only gets itself into material existence after con- siderable bloodshed. That, however, is a detail, and it is a thousand times better that men should be killed in order that their corpses should pave the way to the reign of law, than that they should be slaughtered merely to perpetuate the existing anarchy. In looking round for the necessary Devil whose evil influence is strong enough to compel the European States to federate, we fail to find any excepting our old friend the Assassin at Constantinople. TJU'J EUIWI'IJAX COXCERT 47 The Turk, 1 admitted, although evil, was hardly important enough to i)lay the great role; and yet, fail- ing him, I did at that time not see where to find any ether. The second indispensable condition was to find a leadir who would marshal the forces making for union and lead them to victory. Two years ago it seemed doubtful whether such a leader could be found. Last year brought us light on both subjects, for it brought us a leader in the person of the Tsar, and in hie Rescript he indicated a danger quite suffi- ciently grave to overcome the force of inertia, as well as the more active elements of national rivalry and race antipathies. In the year 1897 Lord Salisbury himself — a man not given to indulge in day-dreams — put an unerring finger upon this sore point. Speaking at the Mansion House on i^ovember 9th, 1897, after dwelling upon the ever-increasing competition in armaments among the nations, Jjord Salisbury said: — The one hope that we have to prevent this competition (in armaments) from ending in a terrible effort of mutual destruction, which will be fatal to Christian civilization — the one hope that we have is that the Powers may gradually be brought together to act together in a friendly spirit on all subjects of difference that may arise, until at last they shall be welded together in some international constitution which shall give to the world, as the result of their great strength, a long spell of unfettered commerce, prosperous trade and continued peace. That was Lord Salisbury's one hope. When a year later the Peace Rescript of the Tsar appeared, it was evident that it was a hope equally entertained at St. I 1 1 r :■ 1 ; M I: f 48 77/ iv' uxiTun sTAri'js OF Evnopi': l*etcrsl)urg. Except in international action, tlicro was no liopc of escaping' from a peril which, un- checked, would overwheiui civilization in ruin. I marvel at my own hh'ndness when, writing;' in 1r of Austria, but the further ])urpose wa;^ to secure peruiauent pcaeo. One hundred years hiter, in l(IJ)o, William Penn broug'ht out his " Essay Towards the Present and Future Peace of Europe, by the Establishment of an European Diet, Parliament or Estates." Penn's fundamental proposition was, in his own words: — THE EUROPEAN CONCERT 51 The sovereign princes of Europe, who represent that society or independent state of men that was previous to the obligations of society, should, for the same reason that engaged men first into society, viz., love of peace and order, agree to meet by their stated deputies- in a general diet, estates or jyarliament, and there establish rules of justice for sov- ereign princes to observe one to another; and thus to meet yearly, or once in two or three years at farthest, or as they shall see cause, and to be styled the Sovereign or Imperial Did, Parliaynent, or State of Europe, before which sovereign assem- bly should be brought all differences depending between one sovereign and another that cannot be made up by private embassies before the session begins; and that if any of the sovereignties that constitute these Imperial States shall refuse to submit their claims or pretensions to them, or to abide and perform the judgment thereof, and seek their remedy by arms or delay their compliance beyond the time prefixed in their resolutions, all the other sovereignties, united as one strength, shall compel the submission and performance of the sentence, with damages to the suffering that obliged their party and charges to the sovereignties' submission. It will 1)0 observed that Pcnii was not afraid of that " l)les8od word compulsion." In this res])c'('t he dis- tinguishes himself from most of tlic *' ])(>ae(' at any ])ri('(' " people who arc ii'cncrally cai^cr to consider themselves his followers. But Penn was a statesman with actual and intimate knowledp' of affjiirs. Just as many nowadays (piote the ])recc(lents of the United States, so Peun referred to Sii* William 'rem})le'H account of the United Provinces of Holland '* as fur- nishinfi' a practical illustration in narrow limits of that constitution which he would have extended to cover all Kurope." ,i I Olil THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE •r Yet another liundred years and Immanuel Kant published in 1795 his '' Towards Eternal Peace," of which the leading ideas were local autonomy and world-wide federalism, or the federation of self-gov- erned States. There is a strange periodicity about these great dreams of universal peace. At the end of the sixteenth century, Henri IV. 's ''Great Design"; at the end of the seventeenth, Penn's '' Essay "; at the end of the eighteenth, Kant's " Zum ewigen Frieden," to be f()ll(>wed at the end of the nineteenth century by the Tni})erial Pescript of the Emperor of Pussia. Even the Xapoleons, the first as well as the tliird, saw the coming of Europe afar oif, and each in his own way labored to bring it to birth. The first, a Mars who had clutched the thunderbolt of Jove, stormed across the Continent, crumbling beneath his mail-clad feet Avhole acres of feudal masonry which cumbered the ground. The offsi)ring and the Nemesis of the Pevolution, he Avas the greatest leveller the Continent had ever seen. The third Napoleon, whose favorite occupation he himself defined as devising solutions for insoluble problems, dreamed much of the possibility of reconstituting some kind of iederation of Europe. If was this cloudy notion that ])rom])ted those con- tinual })ro})()sings of conferences with wlp'cb. he used to trouble his liaiid-(<>-iii<>iitli coulciiij^orarios. Nor was it only in Kings' courts or in Imperial or Papal Councils that the great idoix brooded over the minds of men. It was the theme of the ])oet's song, of the saint's devotions. It inspired much of the swelling THE EUROPEAN COSVEKT 63 end rhetoric of Victor ITugo. It was the burden of the prophetic \ision of ]\razzini. And now tliis far-off, unseen event, toward which the wliole Continent has been moving with sh:>w but resistless march, has come within the pale of practical politics, and on the threshold of the twentieth century we await this latest and greatest new birth of Time. ^ I s * \ • f .!& "I i >e ^. CHAPTEll Y EUROPA I had the good fortune to be in Berlin two years ago. A great capital is always a great inspiration. And Berlin, with its heroic associations of past wars, is more inspiring than most of the younger cities of the M'orld. Bnt that wliicli impressed me most on this visit was the new building of the Kcichstag, which had not been comp^'^ed the last lime I was in (}er- many. It was not the building itself — although that is imposing, if rather squat, with noble equestrian statues standing boldly against the sky — but the polit- ical fact Vvhich it represented. Here under one roof, around the s';;.: • iribime, gather in peaceful debate the representatives of as many States as those which now make up the anarchy of Europe. It is the fashion nowadays to speak of language as if it were a tie closer than all others. But tlie belief in the unity of the Fatherland because of its common speech is hardly a century old, iuu\ lona- after Arndt liad endjodied the idea in verse, German fought German Axitli the uiniost indifference to the German t(mgue. The intense in- dividuality of the German, liis tendency to construct a special theory of tlie universe entirely for his own i EiROP.i i! J use out of his own (jonsciousucss, made the Cerm;;u races the most intractable material for empire-builuiiui; on the Continent. They fought each other for • ic love of (lod; they fought for the pride of place; they were capable of fighting for a theory of irregular verbs. They were (li^•ided, and sub-divided, and re- divided again into kingdoms, })rincipalities, duchies, and all manner of smaller States. Every ruler was as touchy as a Spanish hidalgo about his precedence, and no miser ever clutched his gold with more savage determination to keep and to hold than every German princelet maintained to the uttermost the princely pre- rogative of making war and peace. Xot even the con- stant pressure of foreign peril sufficed to overcome the centrifugal tendency of the (icrman genius. Again and again the wiser heads amongst them had dc* iscd more or less elaborate plans for securing (Jeriiian unity. After the fall of Xapoleon, the l)e t that co\dd be done was the Bund, which was almos* as 'u-ovokiiig in its deliberative inaction as the Euro,; I'n Concert is to-day. But the Bund perished at the swr.rd's point, to be succeeded bv the Xorth and South Oermin: CVm federations, which in turn lisa])peare(l when tiie vic- tories over Erance rendered it possible for the Prus- sian King to be proclaimed (lerman Emperor in the Palace at Versailles. Since then unified (Jennany has been at peace, (iermany his beconie u unit, and the Reichstag, although sorely distracted by the fis siparous tendency of the German parliamentary man, has been the parliament of ih? Cnited Empire. 1 1 ., ! 'I ! CO TJIIJ UXITED ^STATES OF ELROPE How long- will it be, I woiulorcd, as 1 wandered tlironuli the buildiiii!,' ol' the Kcielistai:' before iiiiiiied Juii'ope has its Parliament House, and the Federation of JMiro[)e finds for it.-^elf a headcjnarters and a ioeal habitation for a permanent representative assembly? What Germany has done, Enrope may do. The nnion of (Germany has not resulted in the dis- armament of (lernians, neither would the Constitution of the United States of Europe lead to the disarma- ment of the Continent. J>ut no (ierman now buckles on the sword with any dread lest he may have to un- sheathe it against a brother German. The area within wliieh peace reigns and the law eourt is supreme is now widened so as to include all German lands between Jiussia and France, 'lliat is an enormous gain. If we con hi achiev anvthinii' like it for ]MU'ot)e we might l)e well content. The progress of majdvind to a higher civilization has been marked at every stage bv the continuous wideninji,' of the area within which no sword shall be v" drawn and no shot iired save by command of the cen- tral 'Uithoritv. In pure savagery every individual is a sovereign unit. The matelcss tiger in thf jungle is tlie liiost })erfect tvjx' of the lirst stage of Innnan individiudism. AVhom he will or can he slays, and whom lie vill oi' must he spares alive. His appetite or his caprice is liis only law. lie has power of life and death, and the sole right of levying war or making peace; withotit reference to any other sovereignty than his own. From that starting-point man has gradually r i m fil If TiiK i!Ki( iis'i'Aci r,rii.i)iN<;, i!i;i;i.in nil. i;i-.i( iisu.vi II. vii.NNA I it: i ( ^^y^m otp^^ A' V /.IRR.ARy •■'^N 8 o_ "■^i- '•'»v(,^.^,,„.-iw»'; § JJLROPA 57 progressed by irregular stages across the centuries, until the right to kill, instead of being the universal prerogative of every man, is practically vested in about twenty hands — so far as white-skinned races arc con- cerned. The first step was the substitution of the family for the individual as the unit of sovereignty. War might prevail ad libitum outside, but there must be peace at home. After the family came the tribe. After the tribe, the federation of tribes for purposes of self-defence or of eifective aggression. Then came the cities, with the civic unit. From time to time a despot or conqueror, driven by sheer ambition, estab- lished an empire, which, however imperfect it might be, maintained peace within its boundaries. Then nations were formed, each with their own organism and each allowing at first a very wide latitude for pri- vate and local war to their component parts. In our own history, not even our insular position prevented our forefathers, long after they had achieved some kind of nominal unity, preserving with jealous eye the right of private and provincial war. By slow de- grees, however, the right to kill has been confined to even fewer and fewer hands. The mills of God have ground as usual very slowly, but those who took the sw^ord perished by the sword, and the pertinacious as- serters of the ancient inalienable right of private war were converted from the error of their wavs by the effective process of extermination at the hands of a stronger power, determined that no one should w^eld the power of the sword but itself. In Germany to- : ! iS \ 1 i < 68 Tin: LMTIJD NTATKH OF FA ROPE '!!! '\ t ii day, in place of a hundred potentates, each enjoying- the right to kill, AVilliani 11. is the sole War Lord. And as it is in Germany so it is elsewhere. The right to suspend the Decalogue so far as the command '* Thou shalt not kill " is concerned is now confined in Europe to William II., ^'icholas IL, Francis Joseph, Humbert, Victoria, and President Faure. These are the lords of the first degree, whose right to kill is practically absolute. After them come the lords of the second degree, who are allowed a certain lati- tude of killing provided they can secure the neutrality of one or more of the AVar Lords of the first degree. There is a nominal right to kill enjoyed by all the kings of all the States, But as a matter of fact it cannot be exercised except in alliance with one or other of the greater Powers. Greece thought that it was possible to exercise this nominal prerogative of independent sovereignty. Her experience is not such as to encourage other small States to follow her example. But in r(}ality the persons who have the unrestricted right to kill in Europe are even fewer than the six absolute war lords. Europe is now practically divided into two camps. There is the Busso-French Alliance, entered into for the purpose of restraining France from precipitating war, which practically gives Nich- olas II. a veto upon the right of levying war enjoyed by the Frencli Bepublic. On th' other hand, there is the Triple AHiancc of Germany, Austria, and Italy, which practically renders it impossible for Austria or • • /- /:.*>• :V ! '1 ^ — — ^ • 'y^/^mi 1 1 t^ri:KN \vii,iii:i.Mi N.\ »ii' iioi.i.am) J/o,,.- „ (I- 11'.//,/, ^ ,■!„ i.hihi. . 'I'lll". I, All: (^ri.l'.N OK |)|:N.M\1!K C^IK (liit(vnii) (tint JJroyi. J-'/nii nca :n .mak(;iiai:it.v of italv J e, r' ^ 1 r ( ^^^IB!^^uuJI 1 rill', K.Mi'i;i:ss of (;i:it.MANY SOMK orKKNS or KTHOPE I i IMAGE EVALUATION TEST TARGET (MT-S) &< {./ .Jf 4i. / u. <& 1.0 I.I 12.8 IS£ lit lu ^^. 1^ us ■u IL25 i 1.4 2.0 I IRR^^s 1.6 Photographic Sciences Corporation 33 WIST MAIN STRUT WfBSTER.N.Y. MSM (716) •7a-4}03 % m ■^ V ^^ ^V A>" ' 1, / ; PART II ENGLAJS'D IN 1898 CHAPTER I THE FASHODA FEVER When I returned to England from my visit to the Continent, I was assured by a member of the Admin- istration that the coantry had just passed through an outburst of "drunken Imperialism." The phrase, coming from such a conservative quarter, was very significant. Things must have been pretty bad before such a man in such a position could have expressed himself in such a fashion to a political opponent. And they seem to have been pretty bad, judging from the impression which the English newspapers produced upon those who read them abroad. To judge from the papers, and from the telegrams and letters in for- eign newspapers which professed to give information as to how things were going in England, they could hardly have been worse in the great orgie of Jingoism, when Lord Beaconsfield was supposed to have brought back " Peace with honor " from Berlin. I left England on September 15th, when the news r V ^ n : I ■t ■ ^ >h 11^ 84 jyyjy united utateh of el rope had arrived of the presence of Marchand at Fashoda — news which was generally known, although not offi- cially conlirnied. I came back immediately after the French Government had decided to recall him. I was therefore absent from England during the whole of the Fashoda fever, and my impressions of what took place during that somewhat excited period are necessarily the impressions of an onlooker from the outside. I saw England from the various foreign capitals v/ith such lenses as were supplied by the telegrams in the foreign newspapers, and by the more or less belated Englisli new8i:)apers which followed me from place to place. Hence, whatever I say upon the subject must be taken, not as the judgment of one on the spot, who is on the inside track of things, but as a faithful ex- pression of how things looked to foreigners. The very day on which I left London I was assured by a prominent statesman, not in the Government, that we ought to be preparing for instant war with France. France had done " the unfriendly act," which, in diplomatic parlance, was equivalent to stat- ing that she had picked up the gauntlet flung down at her feet by Sir Edward (Jrcy, speaking on behalf of the Rosebery Cabinet. Therefoie there was noth- ing for it but to sound the alarum and prepare for instant excursions, invasions and war by land and by sea all over the world. Lord Salisbury was staying at Contrexevillc, displaying, in the opinion of his im- patient censors, a criminal indifference to the peril of the Commonwealth. The night before I left Eng- \i\. .\(iilur, I'm is Na(hir, Pnria M. DIITY THE T.ATE IMJESTDKNT FAlltK Wall nj, I'liri'i M. IIANOTAIX .\'(iif>i/ . Piirix M. 1)I;L(. ASJ^E 1 1 f V-- % J: .' ' i! J ''Isi i; '!•■ ■■.■'! In THE FAHUODA FEVER 85 land I talked with one of the persons who may be re- garded as perhaps the most directly responsible for the efficiency of our first liae of defence. I asked liinn if he was preparing for instant war. ILe innocently asked, " With whomT' and on my replying, " France," he blandly answered, "Why?" When I said, " Marchand," he shrugged his shoulders. '' Non- sense," he said, " Alarchand is in the air; he will go away when he is told to. It is not serious; it might have been if the Khalifa had not been smashed, but as he is smashed, and Marchand lies in the hollow of our hand, it is nonsense to talk of war." Such were the opinions of an insider and an outsider — who would be recognized, if I were at liberty to give their names, as about the best authorities to be found in the country. With such opposing views of best authorities in my wallet, I crossed the Channel, to find the moment I put foot in Belgium, that the Fashoda question had temporarily obscured that of the Peace Rescript. The brave Belgians were all agog to know whether or not England and France were going to war. Apart from the interest which they naturally felt in such a con- tingency, arising from the fact that a conflict between England and France would probably extend to the Rhine, when they would have to stand to arms in order to prevent the violation of their neutrality by the contending French and Germans, there was a more personal reason why the Belgians were interested in Fashoda. They had been roundly accused in the I 80 THE UNITED 8TATES OF EUROPE ,-i I li:! English press of having connived at " the unfriendly act " of the French. The case against the Congo State, as briefly stated by an English statesman, was that Captain Marchand had been allowed to invade and occupy Fashoda from the territory of the Congo Free State, although the Congo Government had formally recognized, together with Germany and Italy, that Fashoda was within the British sphere of influence, and that the Pritish Gov- ernment had publicly declared in the House of Com- mons that it would regard such an occupation as an " unfriendly act." To this the Belgians replied hotly, and very much to the point — firstly, that declarations made in the House of Commons as to the way in which one Power will regard the possible action of another Power do not amount to the establishment of a state of war be- tween these two Powers; and, secondly, that as long as no state of war exists, the Congo State is compelled by its constitution and the conditions imposed by the Powers to place no obstacle in the way of free transit through its territory. Farther, they maintained that they had no knowledge of any intention of Captain Marchand to commit any unfriendly act by attempting to exercise any authority in any place within the Brit- ish sphere of influence, and it was therefore absolutely impossible for them to have stopped him. To this the objectors replied that the Congo Free State must have had a very shrewd notion of what Captain Marchand was up to, and that they ought to MAJOR MARCIIAXD ^7: f '"!' m f h \^ u 1 a b t: t] il ji I t] is 1. tj Si li c t t a t ( t TUE FAISIIODA FEVER 87 have given our Government a friendly hint as to what was going on. To this the Belgians answered tri- umphantly, " And how do you know that we did not? " That is a question which our Foreign Office alone can answer — the Foreign Office and the Queen. For everywhere and always when you begin to probe below the surface in foreign affairs, you come upon the all-pervasive, subtle, and beneficent influence of the Queen. The King of the Belgians, who is in fact, if not in name, autocrat of the Congo, may or may not comnumicate the secrets of that Empire to the British ^linister at Brussels. But it is an open secret that there are \erj few affairs of state upon which it is not his invariable rule to avail himself of the privi- lege accorded him by the tradition of his family of taking counsel with her Majesty. Every week, it is said, whenever the King of the Belgians is at home, he follows the example of his father by writing to the Queen. The first Leopold w^as the political mentor of the girl Queen. The second Leopold, having one of the shrewdest political heads in Europe, has always appreciated the advantage of profiting by the counsels of the aged lady who is the Nestor of the Sovereigns of Europe. It is probable, then, they say in Brussels, that if the King knew, the Queen knew; and if the Queen knew, we may depend upon it that the Sirdar was not taken unawares when the news came about the white men at Fashoda. The King, who had just arrived from a yachting expedition to the Azores, in the course of which he I I I!* 68 THE ISITED ^TATEH OF EiJiOPE I) * ') ) I f V '1 met with a slight accident which coiiipelled him to keep his room on his arrival at Ostend, preserved a diplomatic attitude of nescience. In reply to my in- quiry, I learnt that " His Majesty is totally ignorant of what has happened at Fashoda, and even whether anything has happened at Fashoda at all." The calm nonchalance with which the English assumed as a mat- ter of course that if Marchand was at Fashoda he woui ^. have '^ to git," was a subject of amazement not unmixed with alarm. " But it is war you will be making! " they said. " AVar! " we replied. " What nonsense! You don't call it war when a picnic party caught trespassing is courteously assisted to find its way home." " Oh, you English! Was there ever such a people! " was the exclamation, and there the matter stopped. The French point of view, as stated to me repeat- edly, was that the Southern Soudan was a kind of Tom Tiddler's ground, which England had abandoned to anarchy. So long as anarchy reigned on the Southern Nile, no declaruuon made by under-secretaries could deprive France of the right which she possessed as a civilized Power of restoring law and order when it was within the range of her armed hand so to do. The French repudiated as utterly untenable the theory that the sovereign right of any Power to exert its influ- ence on behalf of civilization could be arbitrarily cur- tailed by the ipse dixit of Great Britain. Sir Edward Grey^s warning had been promptly met by protest on the part of the French Foreign Office, and they main- }; Till-] FASHODA FEVER m tainod that wo had no moral or legal right to treat the derelict province in the Southern Soudan as shut out from all civilized influence merely because of our sup- posed revisionary rights. Hut the very people who took this position most vehemently were equally frank in declaring that after tlie stricken Held of Omdurnuui the ^larcliand expedition was an anachronism, and the sooner it disappeared the better. " There is no one, believe me," said an eminent French journalist, who had excellent opportunities of knowing what he was talking about — " there is no one single Frenchman in the Government or out of it who does not know that after you reconquered Khartoum, ]\rarcliand's position became untenable, and the only question was how he was to be withdrawn. That is admitted on all hands; it ought not to be beyond the task of diplomacy to enable us to extract him without inflicting \ipon us a public humiliation. AV(» made a false move and we admit it, and only wish to save our face." " And how can that be done?" I asked. "Oh, A'ery easily," he replied; " it can easily be arranged; a little pourhoire! Delcasse's position is rather serious. If he were to retreat under menace, it might bring down the Gov- ernment, and we cannot afford to affront the Army by the public acceptance of any humiliation. AVe all heartily wish that Marchand had never reached Fa- shoda, but as he is there, we are equally anxious not to bring about a Ministerial crisis, or something that might be more serious than a j\rinisterial crisis, by our being compelled to eat humble pie. No, what is to '* '% f |5 i t \ 1 It' ]A''t,!C ■■■ i i! t 90 Tfif; UNITED UTATEki OF EUROPE be done is very simple. You can either ignore the Marc'hand expedition, regarding it as only a mission of civilization, which yoii are glad to welcome to the territory under your dominion, or you can grant Delcasse a little pourhoire in the shape of some more or less empty concession anywhere you like all round the world, anything that would enable M. Del- casse to claim a diplomatic victory which would save his prestige with the country. At the same time you Avould get all that you want." So said my friend, expressing therein the feeling of his nation. In British official circles there seemed to be a gen- eral expectation that some such pourhoire would be forthcoming, and that France would be let off cheap for having made a false move — " the unfriendly act " — just at the time when England had reestablished her prestige by smashing the Khalifa at Omdurman. On the other hand, there was a general expectation among the bystanders, especially the Americans, that the matter would not pass over so easily. " You may depend upon it," said one keen observer, " John Bull will take it out of the French this time, mark my words if lie do< not. After all, human nature is human na- ture, and the old gentleman has stood so much, you can't blame liim greatly, if having got the French in a corner, he gives them beans. Germany smacked your face in the Transvaal, Russia wiped your eye at Port Arthur, the Turk has drawn a long nose at you in Constantinople, the French have been tricking you I ^ Jhis/\. sill UKMiV KOWI.KI!, Ml' S\ hn 1 I' 7 1 1' 1 1 ' J ' ' If \ » !!: i V: 11'' . THE FiaUODl FEVER 91 in Madagascar and worrying you on the Niger — be sure John Bull will pay them out now, if only to set himself up again in his own conceit. Let the French out quietly — don't you believe it! They have got to be kicked down the front doorsteps with full musical honors." That, or something like it, was what my American friend said to me, and events, it must be admitted, subsequently justified his estimate of the situation. The one easy and obvious way out of the difficulty was for Sir Edmund Monson to have accepted j\I. Del- casse's assurance that Marchand was only a missionary of civilization, to have welcomed him with effusion, to have declared that one reason why we had recon- quered the Soudan was in order to open it up to such gallant explorers as Marchand, and to offer the adven- turous little man all the assistance which all civilized Governments are called upon to render to shipwrecked travellers who may be stranded upon their coasts. Such an assurance could have been given with suffi- cient ironical emphasis to give the French clearly to understand that we appreciated to its full extent the unfriendly nature of the act which launched Captain ^farchand on his bootless expedition. It would also have asserted in the strongest possible terms the in- herent strength of our position, a strength so great that it was ludicrous to assume the possibility that half a dozen Frenchmen with a tricolor could possibly raise the Fashoda question by sitting down on a marshy island in the Nile under the cover of our guns, under u i. ' \ 92 TUB USITED ^'^TATES OF EIROPE ^ri! ri ^' it »^ - ^! H 'i ■^;: the shelter of our flag, and under the authority of the Sirdar. An American Peace Commissioner, with whom I was discussing the matter in Paris, said that an infinite deal of nonsense was talked about this matter of the flag. " When I went to visit Mount Sinai I travelled with a cortege — bearers, escorts, etc. — and everywhere I always flew the Stars and Stripes. If the Sultan had been in a mind to pick a quarrel with me, he could have discovered that Uncle Sam was raising the Mount Sinai question because I had camped on the slopes of the famous mountain; but the Turk, not choosing to make a quarrel, ignored the flag, regarding it as the merely patriotic flourish of a traveller within his dominions. You could have done the same about Marchand if you had not wanted to pick a quarrel." When I wont to Berlin, and from Berlin to St. Petersburg, I heard the same kind of talk always. By the time I reached Russia the Government had pub- lished Sir Edmund Monson's dispatches; and, to use the vulgar phrase, all the fat was in the fire at once. It was diflicult on the other side of the Continent to follow all the details of things in England; but one fact stood out conspicuously — namely, that the fore- cast of the American observer had been a correct one: John Bull was about to compel the French to undergo public humiliation before Europe. The disadvantage of making the immense concession that a strolling Frenchman with a few yards of bunting could raise the Fashoda question seemed to have been overlooked, \{ ! i^^i THE FAiSlIODA FEVER 93 compared with tlie advantage of having it out with the French. The Ciovernmcnt having taken up this line, what could a patriotic Opposition do but support it? ^ay, they rallied to the appeal all the more eagerly because of the opportunity which it afforded them of emphasizing their dislike of what they de- lighted to regard as the feebleness of Lord Salisbury's policy. Lord Rosebery led the way by a speech which showed that, although he had abandoned the leader- ship, he was still the leader of the Liberal Party. When he gave the word, great was the multitude of the preachers. Xearly every Liberal newspaper in the country wheeled into line, and of all the occupants of the front Opposition bench there was not one who ventured to dispute his authority. In discussing this extraordinary unanimity mth a very clear-headed Liberal friend, after my return, he replied, " What other course could we take? No doubt your phrase that we should treat Marchand's expedition as a picnic party and welcome him to the shelter and protection of the 1 British flag was the simple, the natural, and by far the easiest way out. No one felt that more strongly than myself. But in order to avail ourselves of it, it was necessary that Sir Edmund Monson and Lord Salisbury should have taken that line from the first, and, as politely and iron- ically as possible, smothered with ridicule the prepos- terous idea that an explorer in difficulties could, by the mere process of setting up his tent on British ter- ritory, have raised any question about sovereignty, any 94 rilE UXITED STATES OF EUROPE ''(, ' 'iH :l X ' V ■•; I- Pi h more than if lie had set up his tent on Dartmoor. But, unfortunately for us, the Government did not take that line. AVhcn they published Monson's dispatches, they made France the present of admitting that the Fashoda question had been raised, apparently for the purpose of driving them out of it. Under these cir- cumstances, what could a good patriot do? Surely nothing but what we did — namely, to insist that as Lord Salisburv had refused to take the short cut out, and had apparently made up his mind that the French had to be turned out neck and crop, the only thing that we could do was to bar the door against any more of those graceful concessions which would have made us ridiculous in the eyes of Europe and humiliated us before France. The fact was, the whole of the agita- tion in this country, from Lord Rosebery's speech downwards, instead of being a manifestation of confi- dence in the Government, was in reality the strongest possible illustration of the fact that we knew Ministers would not stand to their guns unless they were backed up from behind. If we had possessed a really strong Government, there would have been no need for bottle-holding them in the extraordinary fashion that Avas adopted; but, as we all knew" our Salisbury, and knew that he would run away if he got the chance, it was necessary to adjure him by all our gods, every morning and every afternoon, that our unanimous opinion was backing him up, and that we would as- suredly trample him under foot if he tried on any more of his graceful concessions. Believe me,'' said or. But, not take spatches, that the J for the hese cir- Siirely ; that as cut out, ) French ly tiling ny more ^e made iated us le agita- speech )f confi- rongest inisters backed strong ed for 3n that y, and nice, it every limoiis Lild as- >n any '■ said EH'idtt (I III! I'll/ TIIK MAliC^l IS OK SAl.Isr.I 1!V Kiiidlt (Uiil Fry TIIK KT. HON. A. .1. liAI.KurK Elliott (UkI Fry TIIK I!T. HON. LOUD HOSKUKUY FUUtlt (tiiil Fry TIIK HT. HON. .lOSKl'II < IIAMl'.i;i{I,AlN h 1 ,«3 7 J i .1 .A t i ' f: i I tl THE FASHODA FEVER 05 my friend, " that is the ve7'ite wale of the wliole affair. We had got a weak, fumbling Government, one sec- tion of which was always threatening war, and the other half was always backing down. We had stood that kind of thing till we could stand it no longer. Then vou must remember that the French had been very irritating. They wore firmly convinced that under no circumstances would Lord Salisbury stand firm. You could not talk to the politicians and jour- nalists of Paris without feeling that they, one and all, had got the ingrained conviction that at the last mo- ment Lord Salisbury's love of peace would overpower all other considerations, and he would give way rather than fight. So we upheld him, and barred the door in such a way behind him, that with the best will in the world he was shut up to war if the French refused to budge." That, no doubt, is the true explanation of the extraordinaiy rally of the Opposition, headed by Lord Rosebery, in support of an Administration concerning whose foreign policy each and all of the said " ralliv. ," beginning with Lord Rosebery, had expressed publicly and privately their utter distrust and contempt- The effect of these tactics on the Continent, so far as it came under my observation, was to create the impression that the English were spoiling for a fight, that they had France on the hip, and they knew it, and were determined to force her to accept the grim alternatives — Back Down or Fight! A friend of mine to whom I had written from St. Petersburg ask- 96 THE I SITED STATES OF EUROPE I. J r } m m R, f^l I ing Avliat clianco thoro was of a national movomont in favor of the Pcaco Conference, replied: " Yonr letter finds this city in a ferment," (he was writing on Octo- ber 15th), " and all onr people pouring oil on flame, which makes my heart half sick, half hot. A cry for the Tsar's policy or for peace to-day wonld only drive the swine more violently down the steep. But the day will soon come for a deliverance." Three weeks later, T received another letter from London, dated November 4th, in reply to a suggestion that something should be done to back up the Peace Conference in England. " Back up the Conference, you say! But I tell you the British lion is roaring at his loudest. I have never seen the noble brute so intractable; you must wait until the fever has ])assed out of the acute and delirious stage. I feel that this will not last. Lord Salisbury is the only man in England for your purpose, and he is hlase and sceptical. lie ought to take John Bull bv the throat: nobodv else can! The Liberal Party is wholly useless — a fearful saying, but true." When I got to Constantinople, I found that the general impression among the English there was en- tirely in accord with the estimate which I had formed of the situation in St. Petersburg; that is to say, they believed that an amount of fanfaronade had been made, apparently in order to force an open door, but reallv to force Prance to fioht. Private letters from London showed that, however far ]\rinisters and the responsible leaders of the Opposition might be from THE FASUODA FEVER 97 desiring so great u crime, there were iindoiibtedly many among those who gave impulse and momentum to the public movement who were passionately bent upon forcing on war. As one correspondent put it, " We are never likely to have such a chance again for settling old scores with France. It would be a thou- sand pities not to smash her, now we have got the chance." The chance, of course, consisted in the fact that the Russian Government was publicly committed to a policy of peace, that the raw which had existed for some years between London and Berlin had been healed, at least on the surface, that France was dis- tracted by the passions excited by the Dreyfus case, and that the inferiority of her fleet was so notorious that the immediate result of a declaration of war would have been the disappearance of the French flag from the ocean. AVhen, in 1878, Lord Beaconsfield, having failed to fight his three campaigns against Russia for the deliverance of his friend and ally the Turk, made war on Afghanistan, a Liberal leader made a sarcastic re- mark which the recent clamor of the war party in England forcibly recalls to my mind. A gentleman was out driving one day, when his horse suddenly belted and dashed frantically down the street. " Can't you stop him? " said the 0A\Tier to his coachman. " Xo," said the Jehu, " he has got the bit between his teeth." " Then," said the gentleman philosophically, " take care and run into something cheap ! " Last year France was alone, France was weak, France was 7 M THE UMTED STATES OF El ROPE i i;« I lit distracted by internal troubles; therefore she was cheap enough to run into. And so all the barbaric tomtoms of the unregenerate Jingo were set beating; and Alfred Austin, who nuiy be regarded as medicine- man and witch-doctor, crisped the British lion's mane, and made him roar to his heart's content. To out- siders, who looked at the matter across the Continent, this blatant bellicosity of the public seemed somewhat cowardly, with too much of '' liit him because he's down " in it altogether to minister to the self-respect of the self-regarding Briton abroad. But to others who approached it from a different standpoint the folly of it seemed even more conspicuous than its meanness. For, the moment it was known that Russia would not support the French in going to war about Fashoda, it was certain that France would yield, and all this tre- mendous pounding of heavy artillery secured for us no permanent advantage. Fashoda was in our hands, for the French occupation was an occupation pour rire. "When France gave way, she abandoned noth- ing that she could possibly have maintained; whereas, the kicking of her downstairs with musical honors, Avliile it gave us nothing that was not in our possession before w^e started, was not calculated to make France more easy and accommodating in dealing with us in a cause when she had a stronger case both in letter and in fact. In other words, the French would have gone out of Fashoda quietly if we had given them a little pourhoire; whereas, now^ that we have insisted upon kicking them out publicly in the presence of the ser- rill'! rXSlIODA FEVER 00 vants, the pourhoire will have to ho nnioh larger. Wo may ohjoct, and swear that we shall iiovor, never, never give any pourhoire; hut all negotiations are matters <>t' give and take, and we may do])ond npon it the reeent performance of the British lion has not hoon of a na- tnre to make France more amenahlo to reason, or more desirous of straining a point in order to come to an amicahle nndoi'standing with ns on other questions where she is hotter ahlo to liohl her own. AVhen I came to Uome I found that opinions varied. Among our eountrvmon there wore those who gave full expression to the feeling that it was high time to teach these French a lesson, and that wo had heen put upon so much that wo should now put our foot down and show that wo could fight, and so forth; while others were impressed hy the frightful possibility of the general war which seemed to bo so lightly hazarded by the ^^ ar-mongers of the press. One acute observer said to me, when we Avere discussing this question under the shadow of the Quirinal, " It has been a great deliverance. You may not believe me, but I am firmly convinced that no power in Italy could have held the Italian people back from declaring war on France the day after the first French fleet had been swept from the sea. Any Ministry that attempted to check such a movement would have been swept away at once. The Italians would have felt that their chance had come, and thev would have struck in a moment at their hated foe." This mav be so, or it may not; but that the contingency was believed to be ! :i i ; J I I 100 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE * ' f •] '''1' /'i I i i not only possible, but probable, and even certain, was a grim reminder of the gigantic issues which trem- bled in the balance when onr CJovernment decided to reject tlie picnic-party solution, and elected to compel France, on risk of war, to atone for her " unfriendly act " by formally evacuating Fashoda. The theory that John Bull has been bested every time for years past in his negotiations with his neigh- bors, and that in the struggle for existence and the scrimmage for the world he has been badly worsted, is one of those delusions which seem to indicate that a morbid hypochondriasis has taKen temporary posses- sion of a part of our people. There is one, and only one, region in which there are alarming signs of our not being able to hold our own. But, character- istically enough, this one serious danger is entirely ignored by those who arc most prompt to sound the alarm. The notion that the statesmen and sovereigns of the Continent form their estimate of the fighting capacity of the British from the lollowing claque of London newspapers is one of the most extraordinary delusions that ever possessed the public mind. If any- thing were required to convince the Continental mind that English newspapers are utterly worthless, even as reporters of what is actually going on in their own country, there could hardly be a more striking instance than has been supp'"3d by this Fashoda incident. For weeks, nay, for months, the British newspaper press stuffed its columns with the most alarming accounts of the feverish activity that prevailed in all our ar- ,u j THE FAiiHODA FEVER 101 senals and dockyards. Every day brought forth new reports of fresh preparations for instant war. It was mobilization here, there and everywhere. The whole land seemed to be reverberating with the clangor of preparations for war. Again and again I was asked by most intelligent foreigners how many millions we had spent in making ready for war. I always shrugged my shoulders and said that I did not believe that the expenditure would exceed a hundred thousand pounds. The whole affair was a gigantic mise-en- scene, a game of bluff, played out to the end with astonishing intrepidity and nerve by gentlemen of my own profession, who felt it necessary to beat the big drum in order to keep their Government up to the mark. The utter amazement with which this explana- tion was received led me to justify the faith that was in me by two very important facts which had escaped public attention. One was that the Chief Constructor of the Navy, the man who has designed all our modern battleships, and who is the one man of all others whose presence would be indispensable at Whitehall were there any real question of the expenditure of millions on the Navy, was quietly enjoying his two months' holiday on Sir George Xewnes's dahabeeyah on the Nile. The other was that the head of the Victualling Department, instead of working double tides at Ports- mouth in order to make ready for war, was placidly enjoying his holiday under the sunny skies of Italy. No one believed me. They were quite certain that we were pouring out millions like water in order to 102 THE UNITED STATEH OF EIROFE ■•^i •: Mi i1 make ready for war. It was not, therefore, without a certain grim satisfaction th.:t I noticed, when I ar- rived in Paris, that the Chancellor of the Exchequer had found it necessary to make public statement of the fact that, so far from having spent millions, the extra expenditure upon all the amazing manifestations of activity which our newspapers had reported had only amounted to £50,000, chiefly incurred in replacing the stocks of coal which had been depleted owing to the strike in Soutli AVak's. Aftei* sucli an anti-climax, our newspapers will have to beat a very big drum a very long time before any one abroad takes rat-tat-too seriously. The fact, of course, is that our l^avj does not re- (piire any tremendous expenditure in order to prepare it for war. The story goes that Yon Moltke, after having dispatched his famous telegram, " Krieg, inohil! " that launched the German armies upon Im- perial France, was found by a friend amusing himself placidly as if nothing had happened. When his friend expressed his amazement, Moltke replied, "Everything has been ari-anged, mobilization is being carried out, there is nothing more at present for me to do.'' So it is with every well-equipped army or navy, and all this preternatural parade of fluster and fidget is an evidence, not of strength, but of weakness, a confes- sion of unreadiness, not the calm composure of con- scious strength. Looking at England and the manifestations of Eng- lish public opinion from abroad, it seemed as if the l! ' s THE FASHODA FEVER 103 country were suffering from a bad attack of fidgets. The element of John Bull's strength in times past has been due to the fact that he has been exceedingly tough, with a very robust faith in his own integrity and his own strength. The idea of good old John Bull caring a single straw for all the pin-pricks of his envious rivals is inconceivable, ile cared no more for these things than his bovine prototype for the croaking of frogs in a marsh. But of late there seems to have grown up an astonishing school of hysterical patriots who imagine that they show their devotion to their country by the vehemence with which they bel- low when any puny Frenchman pricks them with a pin or with a pen. It would do these gentlemen good to see a bull-fight in Spain. It might teach them, if they were capable of understanding anything, that the whole art and mystery of circumventing the bull is to make him mad by pin-pricking him till he loses his self-possession. Then he rushes down upon the sword of the matador. The angry bellowings, the pawing of the sand of the arena, the tail-lashing, and the savage and fatal final rush upon his tormentors, reproduce, only too faithfully, the way in which many of our journalists would conduct the foreign policy of Eng- land. In the hubbub of Fleet Street and the cheers of the music-halls these considerations are often lost sight of* ^ it nevertheless it is equally true of nations as of individuals, " in quietness and confidence sliall be vour strength. " If our Xavv hvA hoan weak, tliero might have been some excuse for endeavoring to make if {i f ! H I .»■■ * 1 ^' i H 1 ( / "'A ^' :)'': :5l 1 P , 'ai .1 ' M i 104 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE up for our feebleness by the shrilly outcries and bar- baric war whoop of the savage. But as our Navy is strong enough to sweep any possible adversary from the seas, it would be more sensible, to say nothing of being more Christian, if our Mohawks would spend le.^i? time over their wa^-paint, and cease to make night and day hideous by their yells. Of course, I shall be roundly assailed for saying monstrous things, in thus stating how the recent out- burst of English feeling appeared to an Englishman travelling abroad. But the fact is as I have stated it. I shall be told, no doubt with perfect truth, that noth- ing was further from Lord Salisbury's mind and will than a war with France. That is undoubtedly true. In the sanity and sober sense of the Prime Minister the Empire has found a strong refuge from the vio- lence of the Jingo faction. IS^either would I for a moment assert that any responsil)le statesman, whether Liberal or Conservative, deliberately played for war, although most of them seemed to have taken the risk of war with a very light heart. But it is not there that the mischief lay. When it was decided to publish Monson's dispatches, and prac- tically to appeal for a patriotic demonstration against France, the IMinisters called a spirit from the vasty deep to serve their purpose which they might have found it very difficult to cope ^^dth when they wished to dispense with its assistance. To excite the war pas- sion in a people so warlike as the English is a crime against civilization, which can only be justified, as Ml |M THE FASHODA FEVER 105 homicide is justified, by absolute necessity. The oc- casion was tempting and tlie moment propitious for such an appeal. The Sirdar with his victorious troops, fresh from the reconquest of the Soudan, had arrived in England in the midst of the Fashoda fever. Not even the most envious rival could deny that Sir Her- bert Kitchener had displayed in an eminent degree the great administrative and military qualities which have enabled men of our race to build up the British Empire. lie had fought and wo: two gi'eat battles against a savage foe, and he had reestablished British authority in the ciiy of the Soudan which will be for ever associated with the greatest humiliation inflicted on England in our time. There was, therefore, ample explanation of the enthusiastic welcome with which he was received at home. At the same time, those who saw things from the outside could not help a cer- tain feeling of regret at the lack of perspective dis- played in the extraordinary demonstration with which the Sirdar and his men were received. What more could have been done to mark our national gratitude and esteem if he had been Wellington returning from a ten years' death-grapple with the Despot of the Con- tinent? Plere, again, there was visible that absence of dignity and reserve which used to be so characteristic of our people. The almost Roman triumph which was accorded to the Sirdar naturally ministered to the pas- sions which made a certain section of our people fall an easy prey to their besetting sin. Hence there sprang up many who openly and constantly talked of a iii [< !l 'I 106 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE '■ / i! i. 1 it I 1\ h war with France. " Now is our chance; we should be fools to miss it. We shall never have such an oppor- tunity again of settling with her once for all." Shortly after my return, I was in the editorial office of a well-known newspaper, where we were talking about peace and war. The editor remarked that he was almost the only person on his staff who had not wanted to have " a slip into France," and appealed for confirmation to his assistant, who remarked that nine out of ten persons whom he mcl even then (this was at the beginning of December) were much disap- pointed that we had not " had it out with France." " You must be keeping very bad company," I re- marked. " K'ot at all," he said; " I go in and out of the City a great deal, and certainly that is the impres- sion that I gain from what I hear from the people I meet." " The City! " I exclaimed; " but the City of London, whenever a war fever is in the air, is one of the worst places in the world. Don't you know that when a war fever breaks out the devil always sets up his headquarters in the City? He has another favorite haunt — the clubs of Pall Mall; and he divides his time between the two." " Yes," said the editor, " and as he goes from one to the other, he must of necessity pass most of his time in Fleet Street." The observa- tion was just, for of all energetic children of the devil the London pressman, like the journalist of Paris, when the cannon-thunder is in the air, is about the worst. It was so in 1878; it has been so in 1898. I was repeating this conversation to a well-known pub- |1 ! THE FAS }I on A FEVER 107 ;) lie man, who smiled and added: '' Yes, no doubt; the Evil One spends much of his time in perambulating Fleet Street; but he always has a chop and a cup of tea in Printing-house Square." It would be an interesting subject for discussion as to how far the spectacle of the easy victories won by our American kinsfolk over the Spanish fleet tended to create, or at any rate to strengthen, this groun i' 1.1, public no sooner heard that the Chinese Government wLo sick, and very sick, than they incontinently jumj^ed to the conclusion that the Sick Man of Asia was going to die, and that we must bestir ourselves if we wished to obtain a share of his intestate estate. As a matter of fact, the Yellow Man may be sick, but he is very far removed from the door of death. The co- hesion and unitv of that vast conglomerate of human- ity which stretches from Siberia to Burma, and from the Yellow Sea to Turkestan, depends far more upon the moral influence of its Government than upon the material nexus of armies and navies and police ; and a moral influence once firmly established over four hun- dred millions of men is far too deeply rooted to be pulled up like a garden weed by the finger and thumb of a victorious Power. No doubt the Chinese cut a very poor figure in the war with Japan. Their fleet vanished from the sea, their army was defeated in every battle, and they were compelled to cede to the victorious Japanese whatever their victor chose to de- mand. When the war was over, the Japanese found themselves in possession of the two great strongholds of AVei-IIai-Wei and Port Arthur, and all the world hailed them as the rising Power of the Far East. The blow to Chinese j restige in Europe and America was immense, but in Cliina itself the loss of the fleet and the cession of the northern fortresses affected the dim myriads of yellow men in China about as much as the trimming of a man's beard affects his digestion. Prob- ably ninety-nine out of every hundred never so much THE CnrXERE PUZZLE 110 as knew that a war had taken place, and those who had heard the rumor of hostility are probably to this day in a state of blissful ignorance as to which Power triumphed in the fray. The moral authority of the Government at Pekin renuiins as supreme — with never a soldier to back it or a gunboat to fly its flag — as it was before the war l)roko out. All this was forgotten and ignored even by those who should have known much better. The Russians, it :'.ust be admitted, showed a sounder appreciation of the tenacity of Chinese vitality than did the other Powers. With the aid of Germany and France they cleared the Japanese off the Asiatic mainland and re- stored the territorial integrity of China. There the matter might have remained without any complication arising had it not been for the uncontrollable outburst of the colonial fever in Germany. The opportune murder of some German missionaries in the province of Shantung afforded the German Emperor a welcome pretext for seizing a portion of (/hinese territory. Before seizing Kiao-Chau he cautiously approached the Russian Emperor by tentative inquiries behind which his real object was carefully concealed. Russia had the right of anchoring her warships in the port of Kiao-Chau. Would the Emperor object if Germany were to share that privilege? No direct answer was given at first, but ultimately it was understood that Russia would have no objection to share that privilege with Germany. So the first preliminary was gained. The second preliminary was to ascertain whether , 1 1 ! I I ( 120 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE fl it i^. Russia would have any objection to Germany's exact- ing reparation for the murder of her missionaries. The offhand answer was returned : " Certainly not. Russia could have no objection to the exaction of a rep- aration." With these two assurances, one relating to the anchoring of German ships in the harbor of Kiao- Chau, and the other to the exaction of reparation for the murder of German missionaries, the German Em- pero:' made his great coup. Kiao-Chau was seized and occupied, at first under the pretext of demanding reparation for the murder of German missionaries. N^ot until afterwards was it revealed that the repara- tion demanded included the leasing or virtual cession of the province of Kiao-Chau to the German Emperor. It is believed, and even to this day it is sometimes asserted, that the action of Germany in seizing Kiao- Chau was prearranged beforehand with Russia. N^oth- ing could be further from the fact. The seizure of Kiao-Chau under the mask of a demand for reparation for the murder of German missionaries was, and is, bitterly resented in Russia as a bit of sharp practice of which they haA-e ample ground to complain. So intense, indeed, was the irritation created by the mere suspicion of the German design, that I was told in Berlin a telegram had been dispatched to Shanghai countermanding Admiral Diedrichs's orders. Unfor- tunately the Admiral had sailed before the telegram arrived, and Europe was confronted with the fait accompli of the German occupation of Kiao-Chau. N'othing could have been more opposed to the wishes i THE CHINESE PUZZLE 121 of Russia. Russia's policy was tlie maintenance of the integrity of the Cliinese Empire. In defence of that integrity the Japanese at the very end of a vic- torious war had been compelled under virtual threat of war to clear out of the Liaotong Peninsula; and now one of the Powers by which the integrity of China had been vindicated against the Japanese became herself the aggressor and despoiler of Chinese territory. If at that time Russia and England had but been on cordial terms of mutual confidence, it is probable that concerted action on the part of all the other Powers would have comj)elled Germany to discover that lier occupation of Kiao-Chau was temporary and would cease the moment the Chinese paid compensation for the murdered missionaries. Unfortunately the Pow ers all mistrusted each other, and concerted action was regarded as out of the question. Even without con- cert the question was considered as to whether or not Russia should insist upon the evacuation of Kiao- Chau; and it was only when, upon grave deliberation, it was decided that Germany would not clear out with- out a war, that it was resolved at St. Petersburg to acquiesce in the inevitable and seek compensation else- where. The Russians may have been right, or they may have been wrong in their belief that the Germans could not have been turned out without a war. If they were right, no one can doubt that in their own and in the interest of the general European peace they did well to swallow the bitter mouthful and make the best of it. It is indeed difficult to believe that the I ii '■« I 123 THE UNITED .STATE H OF EUROPE m »':|i i'f- H '■n German Emperor or the German people would have accepted the frightful risk of a European war in order to 2)ersist in seizing a port on the Chinese littoral. But it is only just to a imit that the opinion arrived at by the Ilussians as to the impossibility of turning the Germans out of Kiao-Chau except by a war was shared by the best authorities in Europe. Rightly or wrongly the liussians decided that it was T ot worth while to risk a war for the sake of Kiao- Ohau; but it was felt that the action of Germany had materially changed the situation. It was no longer possible to maintain formally the integrity of China. That integrity had been violated by the " mailed fist " which had seized possession of Kiao-Chau. Germany had established herself in force, if not within striking distance, at least within easy proximity to Pekin. The example of the ease with which the Chinese could be plundered by any one who chose to pick their pockets was likely to prove contagious. iSTo one knew what would be the next step. The signal once having been hoisted for the partition of China, it was felt at St. Petersburg that any day might bring the news of a fresh seizure of Chinese territory. If by some exercise of imagination we could realize the conception of England which has been formed by, let lis say, the King of Uganda, we should probably find that it would compare not unfavorably with the conceptio;i which the British public has formed about Russia. To the King of Uganda England is an en- tity, a unit. England's policy, whether for peace or ■•/■s:. THE CHINESE PUZZLE 123 for war, for annexation or for evacuation, is to him the expression of a single will, lie does not discrim- inate between Liberals and Conservati'^ 's, between Government and Opposition, lie knows nothing of those details which are imperceptible from a great dis- tance. Hence he has probably strange ideas concern- ing the vacillations, inconsistencies and bad faith of the Power with which he has to do. In the same way, while we speak about Russia, we imagine the great Empire of one liunc^ ,jd and twenty nullions as a unit. We speak of its Coven iient as if it were the will of a single man being brought to bear continuously upon the problem in quest^'on. In reality the Ivussian Gov- ernment, like e^ cry other state, is a composite body. It is swayed froui time to time by opposing tendencies which find their embodiment not in parties so much as in ministerial groups, which make themselves more or less articulate exponents of the contending drifts of sentiment. Hence there is often an appearance of vacillation or of inconsistencv, and sometimes of down- right bad faith, which would be perfectly understood if we could but abandon what may be called the " King of Uganda" point of view in considering Russian ques- tions. The way in which the Chinese question was dealt with after the seizure of Kiao-Chau is an appo- site illustration of the inadequacy of the Uganda method for appreciating what actually happened. As soon as the German flag was hoisted over Kiao-Chau, the Russians with one consent believed that the one thing which tliey dreaded more than anything — a \ 1 1 1 i , 1 1 i ■ 1 . '_ } 4 124 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE t;< ],i, i ^ ^ 1 scramble for the inheritance of the Sick Man of Asia — was about to begin, and their eyes turned instinct- ively to the one great Power whose armed force, con- stantly mobilized on a war footing, hovered within striking distance of Port Arthur. Strange though it may seem to Englishmen who alternately plume themselves upon the pharisaical vir- tue with which they abstain from picking and stealing, and display a Nebuchadnezzar-like pride in having picked out all the plums from the world's pie, the Kus- sians are firmly convinced that whenever there is a scramble for any corner lots in the universe, John Bull is dead sure to be first on the spot. Now there is one particular corner lot in China which the Russians could not and ought not to allow to pass into any other hands than their own. This particular corner lot in question was Port Arthur, with the related port of Talienv/an. Port Arthur and Talienwan stand in pretty much the same relation to each other as the Spithead ports, Portsmouth and the Isle of Wight stand to the docks of Southampton. Talienwan is the only ice-free port through which Russia can obtain access to the Pacific at all seasons of the year. It was therefore absolutely necessary for the future develop- ment of their vast Siberian Empire that the port of Talienwan should be available as the terminus of their great trans-Continental line. The reasonableness of this opinion had been publicly recognized by Mr. Bal- four, who, in a famous speech, had declared that so far from England's having any objection to Russia's ob- THE CHISESK PUZZLE m taining an ice-free port in the Pacific, nothing was more to be desired in the interests of British trade tlian that Hnssia should have such a port, and the British Government therefore regarded her natural ambition lO have a port in ice-free waters witli satisfaction and approvah The Russians naturally took note of this declaration with nnich satisfaction; and inasmuch as Talienwan was the only ice-free port along that coast, they regarded IMr. Balfour's speech as being equiva- lent to a virtual handing over of 'I'alienwan to the Rus- sian Government, whenever the railway had made suf- ficient progress to justify a demand for the cession of such a position on the coast. Here the Russians may have been mistaken or they may not. Mr. Balfour's words seemed to them sufficiently explicit ; and no one who reads them to-day can marvel that the Russians took them to mean exactly what they seemed to say, for it is no use pretending that when you invite an- other Power to " have " a port, you mean that she is simply to enjoy in common with all the other Powers a right of way through a port belonging to someone else. It is well to bear this in mind, because it is the key to much, if not to everything, that happened in the spring of last year. When the German flag was hoisted over Kiao-Chau, opinion in the Russian capital was divided. One sec- tion, which may be regarded as having its headquarters in the Poreign Office, held that it was absolutely neces- sary for the preservation of Russia's vital interests for her to forestall the attempt to seize Port Arthur on the I 196 THE VSITIU) STATES OF EUROPE i! 1^: r^ ii \ - part of any other Power. This scliool maintained that Enghnid was certain to seize Port Arthur either di- rectly herself or indirectly through the Americans or the Japanese. In any case, Port Arthur was much too valuable a jewel to be left lying al)0ut loose, with the signal flying from Kiao-Chau for the general scrand)le. That was the view of one school. An altogether different opinion prevailed in the section which had as its centre and head the Ministry of Fi- nance. Here it was maintained that Lord Salisbury could be relied upon not to seize Port Arthur, and that ]\rr. Balfour, when he made his famous declaration as to the right of Russia to an ice-free port, was speaking in good faith, and meant exactly what he said. They maintained, therefore, that seeing the right of Russia to Talienwan had been recognized by England, and that Port Arthur was to all intents and purposes an integral part of Talienwan — for Port Arthur was un- tenable with Talienwan in other hands — it was better to let things remain as they were, to trust to England's declarations and to still hold on to the old formula of the integrity of China despite the inroad upon that integrity which had been made by Germany. This school violently opposed the occupation of Port Arthur. They contended that to occupy such a posi- tion would make Russia a partaker in the guilt and responsibility of the partition of China, the prevention of which had been the steady aim of Russian policy. They maintained that to occupy Port Arthur w^ould set two signals flying, instead of one, for the partition %• » ;♦ SOCiETY :BAY** tTATun M/irs tm s /o u MAP HIIOWINQ IIKLATION OK POUT AUTIIUU TO TALIENWAN — AS THE BPITHEAD POKTH AUE TO SOUTHAMPTON MILIt _ SO iM ia MO ti» im a Tr»aty Hrti RUSSIAN MANCHURIA ( i I /, r I 'ii t i \> :-^ Vlr* THE CIIIXESE PUZZLE 187 of China, and would eliallenge tlic other Powers, not- ably England, to join in the game of grab. It was further insisted upon with great force, and, as the re- sult proved, with truth, that it would be impossible to take possession of Port Arthur without huving to square the Japanese, and that this could only be done by the abandonment of Russia's vantage ground in Korea. Further, the railway was not built, and would not be built for some years, during which the stattis quo might remain. To occupy Port Arthur would at once make Russia vulnerable. It would en- tail an enormous expenditure, which the Treasury could ill afford, for arming of the ports, and a still more gigantic outlay in the building of a great Pacific fleet. In addition to all those arguments they had another, and perhaps the most powerful of all, in re- serve. " The Chinese," they said, " will bitterly resent our occupation of Port Arthur, and they will confound us with the Germans as the despoilers of their Empire. Our strength throughout the whole of the Chinese Empire depends upon our moral influence with the rulers at Pekin. Our position at Pekin is not weak- ened, but rather strengthened by the jealousy and sus- picion excited against Germany by the seizure of Kiao- Chau. Therefore let us severely abstain from any tampering with (^hinese integrity. Let us emphasize our determination to maintain the integrity of the Chinese Empire against all comers. Let us push for- ward the construction of our railways, strengthen our commercial interests in China, and rely upon the good ^i 128 Tin: UXITED HTATEH OF EUROPE n 1 ,! t ■ I t 1>\ : faitli of England to save ns from the dangers of see- ing Port Arthur and Talienwan pass under the con- trol of another European State.'' The balance of opinion at St. Petersburg was strongly in favor of this view. The Emperor for some time kept an open mind, with strong predispositions in favor of what may be regarded as the views of ^I. "^Yitte as against those of Count l\ruravieif. This was natural for many reasons. lie had travelled in the East. He had no sympathy whatever witli the earth- hunger which seems to possess some people like a con- suming passion. He wished to leave the Chinese alone. lie deprecated anything that would lead him into collision with England. lie was even painfully anxious to avoid saddling his treasury with any fur- ther expenditure for armaments and munitions of war. All the cards seemed to l)e in favor of the victory of AVitte and the discomfiture of J\[uravieff. Unfor- tunatelv the whole scene was chanued, and changed t-' i> 7 (71 not so much by the action of the P)ritis]i Government as by the steps taken on their own initiative by the Britisli Admiral and the British And)assador. The Admiral acted innocently, never dreaming Avhat mo- mentous results would follow from the orders which he had given. It is, jdas! impossible to say as much for the action of the Ambassador. As will be seen from what has been said of \]w argu- ments of the contending schools of Kussian statesmen, it was essential for the success of the non-annexation- ists that England's good faith should be undisputed, THE CHINESE PUZZLE 129 and that there should be no doubt whatever as to the honesty of Mr. Balfour's declaration in favor of Russia having an ice-free port, which could only be Talien- wan, to which Port Arthur was a mere corollary. On the other hand, the annexationists were keen to lay hold of any sign that would seem to prove the insin- cerity of the English Government, and to pounce upon anything tliat looked as if we were trying to wriggle out of Mr. Balfour'.-! assurances. It was at this particular juncture that the Admiral commanding the British fleet on the Pacific stations, '' l)eing moved thereto of the devil," as the old legal phrase goes, bethought him thnt it would be well to order some of his ships to call at Port Arthur in the course of their cruise round the Chinese littoral. This was well within the authoritv of the Admiral in command, nor did he in the least imagine when the ships were ordered to take up their station for a time at Port Arthur that any political significance would be attached to their arrival in the port. So little im- portance did he attach to the matter that he made no report on the subject, and neitlier asked, sought, nor received permission from the Government at home. He sent the ships to Port Arthur as he had previously sent ships to Kiao-Chau, and :.3 he would send them to any other port where he could find safe anchorage. Such, at least, is the positive declaration of the British Government, which we, of course, implicitly believe. It can easily be imagined with what feelings the news of tlio arrival of Britisli wnrsliips at Port Arthur was It. i 130 li'i: UNITI.J h'i'ATt^i^ '>F ELRni'E I V!: *! ,i 'If ) 4 recehed in St. Petor slnirg. The intelligence dis- mayed the non-annexationists and filled the annexa- tionists with joy. " "VVe told you so!" the latter cried exultingly, and immediately proceeded first to press their suspicions on the mandarins at Pekin, and then nt St. Petersburg to point triumphantly to the presence of the ships as proof positive of our bad faith. Our Ambassador, Sir Nicholas O'Conor, who was then, with the best intentions in the w^orld, working hand-and-glove with the non-annexationist section, anxiously inquired as to why the ships were sent there, and, apparently as one result of his telegrams acquaint- irg the Government with the exaggerated importance attached to the presence of these vessels, he received and transmitted to the Russian Government assurances as to the non-political nature of the visit of the ships, which may be found in rlio Blue Book. Meantime, the ships having stayed their time, sailed away, but ilie nu'-^chief which they had dc>ne lived after them. Still, lUi removal of the ships gave fresh heart to the non-annexationists, who renewed the battle; and they might have won the day, had it not been for the fatal move of Sir Claude J\rae Donald, our Ambassador in Pekin — a move which no attempt has ever been made to reconcile with ordinary good faith. The only ex- cuse that is possible is almost inconceivable. It is difficult to imagine that the British Ambassador at Pekin was unaware of the fact that ]\[r. Balfour had publicly declared that the British Government en- 1^: ! ii 1 ^ F.U'iiill lUiil vrij •II! (I,\l DI', M.\< noNAI.I) Aiiilia-sjiilor ;,i I'ckiii Tiiiiiiir (if ( -iiic Ciilmi i-:ii]iii ,11, ii i-'i ij I.OIM) ( I l!/.(»N o|.' KKDI.KS'ION i.<»i;i) \r,i;i{i)i;K.v I.'t'liiiiiLT (invcnior-OcMicnil ot' Cmii.kI.i .w'^ I ['* -I .') i 1 ' I IP THE CHINESE PUZZLE 181 tircly approved of Iviissia having an ice-free port in the Pacific. Yet, except on that hypothesis, it is dif- ncnlt to acquit the J -ri'.ish Ambassador of an act of deliberate treachery infinitely worse than the worst that could be charged against Count Muravieif. For what did he do? First. .10 sooner did he find that the Chinese Government was in difficulty about the negotiation of a loan, than he went to the man- darins at Pekin and offered to secure them a Britisli loan on various conditions, one of which was that Talienwan (which, he was careful to explain in his telegram home, was the only ice-free port) should be made into a treaty port. The mandavins at once ob- jected that Russia would never agree to this; but Sir Claude MacDonald insisted. " Why should the Rus- sians object," he asked, " unless they had designs which, if they objected to his proposal, would then be unmasked? " But there was no need for unmasking their designs. Their designs, if one may call them so, were frankly avowed and had been publicly en- dorsed and approved by Mr. Balfour, the Leader of the House of Commons and First Lord of the Treas- ury. The Russians regarded their claim to have Talienwan as a matter that had passed beyond the pale of controversy. It had been virtually made over to them, whenever they wanted it, l)y Mr, Balfour on behalf of the British Government; and yet, with this assurance fresh in their mind^, tluy were suddenly confronted with the spectacle ^f the Britisli Ambas- sador at Pekin endeavoring by tlie promise of a British !', II I' : J I 132 THE UXITED BTATEfi OF EUROPE ' ' if. i :;! 1'^ ^ ' :l I : I ' ■ I loan to bribe the Chinese Government into cheating them out of the indispensable port. When this became known in St. Petersburg, the annexationists triumphed all along the line. Who could trust the English after that? Count Muravieff also, being anxious, it was said, to immortalize his family by bringing Russia to Port Arthur, as another Muravieff had brouglit Russia to the Amur, is said to liave worked upon the Chinese by assurances more emphatic than accurate to induce them to request the Russians to occupy Port Arthur lest it should be seized by the English. The Chinese refused, but in such a way as to give Muravieff a colorable pretext for representing to the Emperor that the Chinese implored him to take Port Arthur-. After this last cowp the fate of Port Arthur was sealed. I liave entered at some length into this question, be- cau 8 it bears directly on the charge which is brought against Russia of having deceived us in the course of these negotiations. When the fate of Port Arthur was still in the balance, questions were asked at St. Petersburg as to the presence of Russian ships of war at the port, and we were assured that they were only there for winter quarters. This statement is con- stantly brouglit forward as a proof of Russian decep- tion. But the fact is that if we had not thrown the wdiole game into the hands of the annexationists, the ships would only have been there for winter quarters, and would have left Port Arthur in the spring. The rampant Jingoism of certain sections of our press and M ■1 leating 'g, the Who iravieff ize his mother said to s luoie lest the iild be but in :ext for iiplored mp the ion, be- )rought iirsc of Arthur at St. of war re only is con- decep- wn the sts, the larters, The ess and THE CUIXESE PUZZLE 133 the bad faith of Sir CUiude MacDonakl rendered it impossible for the non-annexationists to hold their ground, so that what would in all probability have been only a sojourn for the winter, was converted into a definite occupation. Then came the question whether or not Talienwan should be a free port or an open port. There was a misunderstandiug on the English side, which is ad- mitted in the dispatches, owing to Lord Salisbury's having mistaken the clear and definite statement made by M. de Stael that tlie port would be "open " as eciuiv- alent to its being '* free," V\n- that, however, the Rus- sians are admittedly in no sense to blame. IJefore it was leased to the Jiussians, Talienwan was not open to trade. The inunediate result of leasing it to the Rus- sians was to open it to trade, subject to the provisions of the Treaty of Tientsin, by which the import duty was fixed at a maximum of seven per cent. 1 Taring gained this point, if therewith our Ministers had been content, a great deal of trouble would have been avoided. But unfortunately, from excessive zeal Sir Nicholas O'Conor deemed it necessary to raise the fur- ther question as to whether or not Port Arthur should also be an open port. Xow from the public declara- tions of Her ^Majesty's .\[inisters. Port Arthur cannot be made a commercial port. It is essentially a mili- tary and naval position, corresponding to the Spithead ports and the Isle of Wight ; and satisfactory answers haying been giyen as to Talienwan, which corresponds to Southampton, there was neither sense nor reason > n 1: 'I I lii li 184 THE IXITIJD i^TATES OF EUROPE .(' ! '\ Ms 1 1 in declaring tliat Tort Artlmr should also be declared an open j)ort. Unfortunately, howoveiv instead of pointing this out, assurances were given of the readi- ness to make it open, which the llussians afterwards took back. Instead of justifying this taking back of their promise, which they could perfectly well have done on the ground that Port Arthur, according to Lord Salisbury himself, could not be made into a com- mercial port of any kind, iMuravieff made statements which, if not intended to nuslead, were, to say the least, very unfortunately ])hrased. ^rom this mis- understanding, of which T have heard many explana- tions, none of which seem to me either conclusive f)r satisfactory, there sprang a popular belief that the Russians had wilfully deceived us, although what con- ceivable advantage they could have derived from such deception has never been clearly pointed out. The disadvantage w^as obvious enough. Tlie ^Ministerial papers, almost without an exception, fumed and foamed and ])ublishcd day after day attack.^ upon the Governinent to which at last Lord Salisb'irv yielded, and ordered the occupation of Wei-IIai-^Vei. Thus the third step was takc^n towards the partition of the Chinese Empire. The advantage to England of the occupation of Wei-IIai-AVei still remains problematical. The dis- advantages are obvious. To Germany it has been no doubt a gain that we should have thrust ourselves into a position which makes us partners with them in the partition of [N'orthern China, partners who, however. i THE CniXESK PUZZLE 185 are prcclndod Ly our own voluntary protostations from attempting to derive any comniereial advantages from the position. The (»nly defence that was made was that it was necessary to advertise to Japan and the otlier nations that we were not out of the running, and tliat if (lerniany and liussia seized diincsc territory, we also were willing and able to take a part in the same aame. It is stated — I cannot sav with what authority — that the balance of naval authority was distinctly against taking Wei-irai-Wei, and up to the i)resent fortunately there has been no expenditure to speak of in the way of fortifying or garrisoning the jdace of arms over which our tlag flies. Wei-ITai-AVei remains, and it is sincerely to be hoped will long remain, a place d'armes, as worthless for Imperial purposes as that other place cVarmes in the Mediterranean, the filching of which, nnder the cover of the Anglo-Turkish Con- yention, is an indelible blot ni)on the good faith of Great P)ritain. The irritation prodnced by these various seizures of Chinese territory can easily be imagined. The Ilus- sians said little but did much — that is to say, they fortified and garrisoned Port Arthur, and produced a naval programme at the l)eginning of last year which, if carried out, would entail the expenditure of twenty- four millions sterling in six years in the building of a great Pr.cific fleet. Of this twenty-four millions, ten millions were allocated for the construction of ships in their own dockyards, and in France, Germany and the Ignited States. The remaining fourteen millions I i ■ ! ! ■■ ;i A I. .; I H\ IMAGE EVALUATION TEST TARGET (MT-3) /( -% 4^ 1.0 I.I no M 125 ■^ i^ 12.2 tu — ■ Hi 124 ■ 40 11-25 III 1.4 1^ 1.6 vQ / Hiotographic Sdences Corporation 23 WEST MAIN STRUT WHSTM.N.Y. 14S80 (716) 173-4503 ^V ■O^ iV <^ 4 l/u 136 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE !>' M-i I;ii i! • ' sterling, which are also to be spent before the end of 1905, have not yet been allocated, but it is part of the programme officially announced at the beginning of last year, which was prepared as the necessary and natural corollary of the occupation of Port Arthur. Througliout the whole of the discussions on the Chinese question, no exception can be taken to either the tone or the matter of the speeches of Lord Salis- bury and Mr Balfour. Iso siich compliment, how- ever, can be paid to the utterances of Sir Michael Ilicks-Beach and Mr. Chamberlain. It was Sir ]\richael Ilicks-Beach who first spoke openly of main- taining our positi(m, if necessary, by war. But his indiscretion was thrown into the shade by the outburst of Mr. Chamberlain, who in a famous, or infamous, speech virtually called Russia a devil with whom it was impossible to come to any understanding or to come to any agreement. This was the famous " long- spoon " speech, which had at least one good result. It revolted even those who most sympathized with the anti-Ilussian feeling, and brought down upon Mr. (chamberlain reproofs which were all the worse to bear because he knew them to be so well deserved. The popular conception of Mr. Chamberlain is erro- neous in many points, and in none so much as that which paints him as a man of strong convictions and of resolute purpose. Mr. Chamberlain in reality is a creature of impulse. He is a man of strong feelings, and when he feels strongly he speaks strongly. One of his colleagues, wlien explaining and apologizing THE CHINESE PUZZLE 187 for the '' long spoon " speech, maintained that it really was an outburst of offended affection. ^Ir. Chamber- lain, to do liiiu justice, has always been a great advo- cate of a good understanding with Russia. At the time when Mr. CJladstone seemed to be heading full swim for war with Kussia over the Penjdeh affair in 1885, ]VIr. Chamberlain was almost, if not quite, alone in the Cabinet in maintaining that war was neither necessary nor expedient. " AVe are going to war all round the world on a pin's point," he is said to have remarked to Mr. Gladstone. No one was better pleased than Mr. Chamberlain when the result proved that war was not only unnecessary but impossible, (lermany and Austria having informed the Sultan that he was on no account to allow our fleet to pass the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus; and the Ameer of Afghanistan having informed Lord Dufferin at the same time that he would not on any account allow British troops to ip'di'A through Afghanistan to attack the Russians in Central Asia. When Mr. Chamberlain forswore his allegiance to Mr. Gladstone and went over into the Tory camp, he carried with him not only his thrall, Mr. Jesse Collings, and the whole Chamber- lain clan, but he also carried among his impedimenta his belief that an understanding with the Russians was both possible and desirable. Tn Council he liad always advocated the establishment of an understand- ing with Russia, and hence when the negotiations about Port Arthur came to their unfortunate ending, he went off in a tangent in the opposite direction, and !l ii^i r,i 'II 138 THE UNITED ^'^TATEti OF EUROPE ri r ' I L in an outburst of temper declared that we would need a very long spoon if we were to sup with the Russians. It was only " pretty Fanny's way," and thoroughly in accordance with the methods and manners of the new diplomacy, of which he is the patentee and sole pos- sessor of author's rights. I suppose Mr. Chamberlain would allege in self-defence, first, that he never ade- quately realized the extent to which Sir Claude Mac- Donald's attempt to convert Talienwan into a treaty port was inevitabl}^ regarded by the Russians as a scandalous breach of good faith on our part. The significance of the fact that Talienwan was the only ice-free port in that region through which Russia could have access to the sea may have escaped him. lie fur- ther has the characteristic John Bullish belief that when you get mad the best thing to do is to swear at large. It blows off steam and relieves internal pres- sure to give your adversary a piece of your mind. That may be all very well for the individual citizen; but Mr. Chamberlain should never have forgotten that he was a Minister of the Crown, and in that cppacity was bound to reduce the exuberance of his natural disposition within the limits of diplomatic propriety. When matters were in this troublous state, a further difficulty arose concerning the railway from Pekin to !N"euchang. The Russians, whatever faults they may have had, and whatever mistakes th«?y may have made in the conduct of their diplomacy in the Far East, can certainly not be accused of any reticence, reserve, or dissimulation as to the objects of their policy. They iji THE CHIXESE PUZZLE 139 had, even before Port Arthur was taken, frankly avowed their oSjection to see any other European Power establish political influence in Manchuria. They had further made arrangements with the Cldnese Government which precluded them from making any concessions giving political influence to any European Power within what they considered to be the sphere of their interest. The attempt made at Pckin in the interest of the concessionnaires who are financed by the Shanghai Bank, to obtain a concession for a rail- way to Neuchang, brought our Government face to face with the Tlussians. No sooner was it announced that the concession was to be granted than the Russians objected, the Chinese recoiled, and there was another outburst on the part of the Russophobist Jingo party against the interference of the Russian Government with British enterprise. The Russians said little but stood firm. The concession was inconsistent with the agreement which the Chinese had previously con- cluded with the Russians, and it had to be cancelled. Thereupon there was great idulation in the Jingc camp, and Lord Salisbury was abused in all the moods and tenses for making another of the graceful con- cessions which it was declared had made British policy a by- word for weakness and imbecility. As a matter of fact, Lord Salisbury could not help himself, for the Chinese had merely promised us a concession under pressure, which was incompatible with the agreement into which they had previously entered with the Rus- sian Government. Finally, after a good deal of angry I : A Ill I ■*\\ 140 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE ■if r ■>h r I >\ i P'l: altercation, the Russian objection was sustained. Brit- ish money was to be used in the construction of the railway, but provision was taken to prevent the em- ployment of British capital being used s the lever for the establishment of a British ini'perium in imperio in Northern China. While the situation was in this strained state, mat- ters were made worse by various stories as to the con- cession of a railway running from Pekin southwards towards the Yang-tse-kiang valley which was financed by the Russo-Chinese Bank, and was held to be the mere stalking-horse for the extension of Russian polit- ical authority into a region which we had marked out for ourselves. I should have mentioned before that in the struggle between Russian and British diplomacy at Pekin, Eng- land had gained an extension of territory on the main- land opposite Hong Kong, and also had secured con- cessions for the opening of the Yang-tse-kiang valley to foreign vessels, which, in the opinion of those best competent to judge, counterbalanced a hundred-fold all the commercial advantages the Russians were likely to gain for twenty years to come in Manchuria. The British Government had also secured the still more important concession which went further towards creating an imperium in imperio in the Chinese Em- pire than all the other concessions put together. For a long time past the customs of the Chinese Empire have been imder the control of Sir Robert Hart, who was Inspector-General of Customs. Sir Robert Hart's l[ THE CHINESE PUZZLE 141 appointment, however, was purely personal. His sta- tus last year was changed l>y the arrangement arrived at between Great Britain and China, which not only secured Sir Robert Hart's position, but established the principle that his successor must be an Englishman, as long as the trade of Great Britain in China exceeded that of any of her competitors. All these advantages, however, seemed to the excited assailants of Lord Salis- bury as mere dust in the balance compared with the occupation of Port Arthur by Russia and the pruning of the concession of the Neuchang railway. Hitherto it had been the established custom of the British Foreign Office not to lend the diplomatic sup- port of Great Britain to concession-hunters in China or elsewhere. It was Prince Bismarck who first be- gan the i)ractice of using his Ambassadors as commer- cial travellers, and of employing the resources of Im- perial diplomacy in order to deflect orders to German firms. After struggling for some time against the clamor of the IVIinisterial press the Government gave way, and announced that they would support against Russia the Chinese Government's grant of any con- cession to a British subject. Mr. Gladstone called the Anglo-Turkish Treaty of 1878 "an insane conven- tion," but it was sanity itself compared w4th an under- taking which practically left it in the power of the Chinese Government to force us into a war with Rus- sia whenever it suited the policy of the mandarins to embroil her two great European neighbors. When things reached this pass, I thought it was about time i. i 't I V 142 THE UNITED HTATEH OF EUROPE that T recalled the suggestion made hy tlie late Em peror, and that I should proceed to Russia for the pur- pose of ascertaining, if possible, what the Russian Government was really driving at, and whether there was any possibility of clearing up misunderstandings and of ascertaining the real drift of events in the Far East. Before 1 started, however, matters began to mend, and negotiations — the " long spoon " notwithstanding — were begun between the Russian and the British Goverimients, the basis of which was the delimitation of their respective spheres of interest. The under- standing suggested by the Russian Foreign Office, and favorablv considered bv Great Britain, was that Britain should regard the province of Manchuria as lying en- tirely within the Russian sphere of interest, subject to the understanding that Talienwan was to be an open port, that no preferential duties were to be charged, and that all goods were to be admitted subject only to the maximum duties laid down in the Treaty of Tien- tsin. By this arrangement the door of Talienwan would be opened as wide as that of any other treaty port in the world ; British capital could be as fairly in- vested in Manchuria as in any other part of the Chinese Empire, but no concessions carrying political influence were to be sought by us in Manchuria. In return for this concession the Russians suggested that the valley of the Yang-tse-kiang should be regarded as the Brit- ish sphere of interest; and that they on their part would abstain from pushing for any concessions carrying I ■ f. \i ■< > o Eh 6 o Hi < 1^ I I ni \)\ . f i ^ ! 1 \ TUE vniXESE PUZZLE 148 political influence in the Yang-l^^e-kiang valley. The valley of the Yellow Iliver, which lies between Man- churia and the Yang-tse-kiang, was to be a happy hunting-ground for the concessionnaires of both Em- pires — a kind of intermediate buifer State or sphere of interest, which would be common to both Empires. The matter did not go beyond diplomatic conversa- tions, in which the proposals put forward by the Rus- sians were not unfavorably considered by the British Government. Matters were in this state when, to the immense astonishment of every one, the Tsar's Rescript ap- peared, likt a bolt from the blue sky. It was so utterly imexpected that, when one distinguished Rus- sian diplomatist was told by a friend what he had read in the papers, he put it down to the crass stupidity of his acquaintance, who, he thought, had probably mixed up some proposal for the disarmament of Cre- tan insurgents with a general proposal for an arrest of armaments. lie Avas by no means alone in the amaze- ment which the Emperor's sudden initiative created throughout the ranks of diplomacy, both Russian and foreign. The publication of the Rescript gave at once a new objective to my tour. I had first merely intended to make a short trip to St. Petersburg, and to come back at once. But the Emperor by this time had gone to Livadia. It was the accident of his being in the Crimea that first suggested to me the idea of making the tour of Europe. I had never been further south 144 TUE UNITED (STATES OF EUROPE ^ 1 f i than Toula in Russia. I had never visited either the Balkan Peninsula or Austria-Hungary. I therefore decided to extend and enlarge my original design, and instead of merely going to see the Emperor, I pro- jected the tour round Europe which I subsequently carried out. Some of the first impressions of this run through the future Continental Commonwealth are embodied in the subsequent chapters. h CHAPTER III niSPANIOLIZATION The most conspicuous event in the history of 1898 was imdoiibtedly the sudden apparition of the United States on the field of world politics. It had long been foreseen as inevitable, but when the moment struck, the unanimity and enthusiasm v/itli which the whole American nation rushed its Government into war startled the onlookers, especially those who had paid little attention to the development of American Im- perialism. It is tolerably safe to say that, outside Great Britain, there were very few persons who were in the least degree prepared for the outburst of 1898; and even in Great Britain there were many who were very much taken by surprise. The English, however, had one great advantage which enabled them to under- stand and appreciate the nature of the American move- ment. This was not so much community of language as the instinct of race. After all, what had happened in the United States wf^s nothing but what had, time and again, happened in Great Britain. "VVe had, in- deed, led the way in all such enterprises for more than a generation past. !N^o Englishman who was in the least degree informed as to the nature of Spanish mis- 10 • c, 146 THE UNITED tiTATEti OF EUROPE I . 'I I ) 'f ' '> h^ ■■ > government in Cuba will deny that, had the policy of the United States been directed by the statesmen of Downing Street, and had the American people been subject to the impulses which sway the British public, the Spanish flag would long ago have disappeared from the American Continent. Another great advantage which enabled our people to understand the action of America was the close analogy which existed between the American move- ment for the liberation of Cuba and the great agita- tions which from time to time had swept over this country in favor of the liberation of Christian prov- inces from the Sultan. English policy has occasion- ally been revolutionized, and has frequently been deflected by a great humanitarian impulse beating pas- sionately in the hearts of the common people. On the Continent of Europe such experiences are either unknown or are extremely rare. Ilencc^ when the United States declared war against Spain, it was only in England that the sincerity, the genuineness of the popular feeling found general recognition. Every- where else it was believed that the humanitarian professions which figured so conspicuously in the dip- lomatic and public declarations of the American Government were mere pretexts put forward to mask a long meditated design upon the possessions of a neighbor. The English, who have been accustomed to similar misrepresentations on the part of Continen- tal nations, found themselves in lively sympathy with their American kinsfolk, not merely because of what HISPANJOLIZATION 147 of a they were doing, but because of the way in which they were misjudged l3y their critics. But wliilc this was true concerning the outbreak of the war, even the English were not a little amazed at the sudden development of American ambitions. It is true, no doubt, that the completeness and dramatic character of the American successes at ^Eanila and at Santiago were sufficient to elate a less excitable people than the Americans. But that the American Kcpub- lic, which for a century had been constantly held up before our eyes as a type of the staid, serious, business- like commonwealth, should suddenly have passed under the sway of Imperial ambitions, would not have been credited in England any more than it would have been in the United States itself before Dewey de- stroyed the Spanish fleet at Manila. It is, no doubt, true that the motives which led the Americans to in- sist upon the cession of the Philippines were largely humanitarian, and sprang in great measure from a con- ception of Imperial duty which was far removed from anything that could be described as Jingoism. The sentiment of the obligations which they owed to the islanders, whose government they had destroyed; the sense of supreme power, carrying with it obligations which must be fulfilled — even though they exposed the Commonwealth to misrepresentation and imposed upon the United States a burden mucli more onerous than profitable- -undoubtedly counted for much more than censorious critics are willing to admit. At the same time it was impossible to deny tbut below all the 148 THE UNITED 8TATE8 OF EUROPE r . I' k 'I '/ lofty motives which impelled many Americans to take up their cross and accept the responsibility of civiliz- ing the Philippines, there was a strong turbid flood of masterful ambition. The Americans had felt their strength for the first time beyond the seas. They had made their debut in the arena of world politics. They had gained immediate and universal recognition as a world Power — as they believed, the greatest of the world Powers. They had conquered ; why should they not annex? Annexation was the fashion of the hour. All the other Powers had established outposts on the Asiatic Continent. It was not for the United States to shrink appalled from assuming a burden which much weaker states had borne with pride for genera- tion after generation. The pride of victory, the flush of conquest, the determination to assert thems'^lves in the world — in short all the motives with which we are, alas! only too familiar, asserted themselves imperi- ously across the Atlantic, and combined with much more exalted sentiments in impressing upon the Old World the sense of the sudden advent of a new com- petitor for empire, richer than any of those which had already engaged in the partitioning of the world, and which was likely to bring to the great international game a spirit of audacity, not to say of recklessness, far greater tlian their own. We are even now much too near such a great world-event adequately to realize its importance. It was not only the advent of a new and formi- dable factor which must henceforth be reckoned with HISPANIOLIZATION 149 in the world problem that startled and bewildered Europe. There came along with it a curious sense of the instability of things. The older nations felt very much as the inhabitants in a region which for the first time has been swayed by an earthquake. Down to the day when Dewey destroyed the Spanish fleet at Manila, nothing seemed so absolutely fixed and stable in a mutable world as the determination of the United States not to fly their flag on any territory but their own. The traditional policy of the United States, the declarations of their statesmen, the appar- ently unanimous conviction of the people, all com- bined to make the rest of the world believe that what- ever might happen within the American Continent, they were quite safe in calcuhiting that, excepting be- tween the Pacific and the Atlantic, the United States need not be reckoned with. The dav after the destrnc- tion of the fleet at Manila the whole scene changed as if by magic. The traditional policy, the declarations of statesmen, nay more, even the convictions of the people themselves, seemed to be totally transformed. The mariners who landed upon the back of the kraken, and imagined that they were on terra firm a, were not more astonished when the huge monster suddenly dived beneath the sea, than was mankind when the United States asserted their determination to keep wliat the victory of Dewey had placed within their grasp. Simultaneously with the blazing apparition of American Imperialism there was witnessed another phenomenon, which in its way was equally disquieting. w i ht < U . i 150 TUE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE Spain, down to the beginning of tliio constantly avowed in his leading columns, while other newspapers were content to try to chronicle his- tory, it was the boast of the Journal to make it; and ho made it with a vengeance. Whatever we may think as to the wisdom or unwisdom of the course which the Journal has advocated, no one can deny that from first to last it preached what may be called the expansionist doct.'ine with a vehemence, an energy, an ability, and a persistency which could not be ex- celled. Kesponsible American statesmen will tell you that they never read the Journal^ that it is a paper that is never seen in any respectable house, and that it is a great mistake to pay any attention to wdiat they call its " ravings.'' But to all this I have only to make the same reply that Prince Bismarck made to a British Ambassador, to whom he had complained about some articles in the Pall Mall Gazette. '' T\ie Pall Mall Gazette,'' said the Ambassador impatiently, " is in no sense a Ministerial organ." " I^o," said Bismarck, "perhaps not; but whatever the Pall Mall Gazette says to-day, Ministers do to-morrow." And it may safely be said that if any one wished to form a correct estimate of the prob- able drift of American policy during the whole of last year, he would have found a much safer guide in the leading columns of the Journal than in the avowed HISPAMOLIZA TION 167 intentions and genuine convictions of President McKinley and his Cabinet. ]N^or is it only in the English-speaking countries that we find the influence of the latter-day journalist exert- ing more and more a dominant influence in the direc- tion of the a^airs of nations. There is only one other paper in the world which can challenge primacy, in point of view of circulation, with the New York Journal. That is the Petit Journal of France. The Petit Journal is a creation largely of the publishing genius of Marinoni. It counts its daily circulation by the million, and there is no nook or corner of France into which it does not penetrate. It has many good qualities, and, like both the Daily Mail and the Neiv York Journal, it is conspicuously free from any ap- peal to the great goddess Lubricity, whose modern Paphos is Paris. But of all engines for exciting and intensifying national hatred and envenoming the feel- ings of class against class, it would be difficult to find anvthincf worse than the Petit Journal. No accusa- tion against England is too absurd not to be welcomed in its columns, and no invective against the friends of Dreyfus can be too savage for the editorial taste. It goes forth day by day with its million voices into all the villages and hamlets of France, engendering hatred and stirring up strife. This perhaps is a natural and an inevitable result of the extension of the journalistic suffrage to great masses of the people to whom you can only appeal if you print in very large capitals, and whose attention I' . 108 Tin J CM TED IS TATE >^ OF El Hi) I' E h '^'i if ■ 1 you can only coniniand by u [jcrpetiial prodding with a very sharp pen. The okl readers, the minority, may still read their papers, but they are no longer in the exclusive possession of the field. Their judgment is overborne; their voice is silenced by the nmrmur which rises from the great crowd at the show, which when it is tickled laughs, and when it is provoked roars from a million throats. This, it may be said, is only democracy, but it is democracy articulate. It is a partial return under modern conditions to the ancient practice in which the affairs of a state were decided by the whole people assembled together in a mass meet- ing. The modern nation is little better than a huge mass meeting, in which the voice of the scare-head editor alone has stridency sufficient to carry to the vero-e of the crowd. Ilis voice is never still. It sounds from a vantage like that of the muezzin's tower, high above the city's din, when it cries; but not like the simple Mahometan, "To prayers, to prayers! There is no God but CJod, and Mahomet is the prophet of God," — rather it cries aloud to the barbaric in- stinct of self-aggrandizement, self-assertion, self-glori- fication. '' There is no people so great as the Ameri- can people," cries the Journal from its million issues, " no people so great, so glorious, so good, so altogether fashioned in the image of God." And so in similar fashion our latter-day journalists instead of acting as mentors, accept the role of flatterers, and diligently fan the flames of national egotism and imperial ambi- tion. It is, perhaps, too much to expect a journalist ling with rity, may cr in the gniont is niurnmr w, which kcd roars I, is only It is a 3 ancient ' decided ass nieet- 1 a huge are-head Y to the till. It 's tower, not like prayers ! prophet aric in- f-glori- Ameri- issnes, ogether similar ting as igently 1 ambi- rnalist yadiu: I'urif M. DIUMONT Kditor of tlic '• J.il)n' raiolc " 4 [^ 1 1 Iffl "''•'i , m > ''I (itfsc/itl, rariii M. I'I!KSS|;nsE Foreign Editor of tiic •' Temps " Santony, Paris M. IJOrilEKOUT Editor of " L"Iiitriiii!STATEt^ OF EUROPE tropical Empire in Africa almost eiglity times her own area. She is dreaming of concessions in China, she is making immense investments in Russia. Everywhere she is looking over the pale of her own little garden for fresh fields for the investment of her super- abundant capital and for the exercise of her exuberant energy. Belgium's experience, therefore, enables Bel- gians to form a sympathetic and intelligent judgment concerning the new departure in America. I spent some days in Brussels, during which I had an opportunity of forming a tolerably comprehensive conception of Belgian opinion on the subject. There is no feeling of alarm or antipathy in Belgium to America's expansion, either in the West Indies or in the Philippines. Th y criticize it impartially, feeling that it does not concern them. But they protest against any parallel being drawn between the found- ing of the Empire of the Congo and the acquisition of the Philippines. Belgium, the King protests emphatic- ally, is so small, so crowded a country — it has a popula- tion of G, 000,000 on the area of 11,300 square miles - -that if he did not look out for fresh fields and pas- tures new his flock would ere long be compelled to eat each other. The King of the Belgians, wdio, if he had but a wider scope for the exercise of his abilities, might have achieved a foremost position in the history of our times, is the founder of the Congo State. His point of view is that it is the very smallness of the Belgian kingdom wdiich justifies the policy of expansion. As ''I i. s her own ina, she is erywhere le garden er siiper- 3xul)erant ahles Bel- judgment ich I had irehensive t. There ^Igium to dies or in [y, feeling y protest he found- lisition of emphatic- a popiila- lare miles and pas- led to eat lad but a iglit have y of our His point 3 Belgian iion. As OirtiZil, /trut(,H/<. (ifltr Xiiiiia Jilunc, CaiDas LEOPOLD, KIN(i OK Till': I'.KI.CIAXS M. ( liKMKl! Miiiistfi- lor fdliiiiics. XctlicrlMiids Giinther. /Irtixscls THK ( KOWX I'HINCK OF llKLCiH M THE (iUEKN OK HHLOHM BELGIUM 177 he wrote in 1890, when lie made the will leaving the Congo to the Belgian Government — a gift not even yet accepted — I have never ceased calling the attention of my fellow countrymen to the necessity of looking towards the countries over the sea. History teaches us that it is the moral and material interest of countries with a restricted territory to extend beyond their narrow frontiers. Greece founded on the Mediterranean opulent cities, the home of arts and civ- ilization: Venice later on established her grandeur by the development of her maritime and commercial relations, no less than by her political successes. The Netherlands possess in the Indies thirty million subjects who exchange their tropical products for those of the Mother Country. It is in serving the cause of humanity and progress that peoples of the second rank appear as useful members of the great family of nations. More than any other should an indus- trial and commercial nation like ours strive to secure out- lets for the products of all its workers — of those who work with their brain, with their capital, or with their hands. These patriotic preoccupations hcive dominated my life. It is they which led to the creation of the African enterprise. My labor has not proved sterile. A young and vast State, directed from Brussels, has pacifically taken its place in the world. " For Belgium," said a former Prime Minister, " expansion is an economic necessity. The fact that we have no fleet is Sufficient to prove that it is not prompted by Imperial ambition. But with the United States it is different. Their immense resources in their own territory are barely scratched. If they found colonies as the result of conquest it is due to the lust of power. I do not blame the Government. 13 i>>^^l'KaK* «>MmMm ■ ^. -C'l *r ' •,■.:-.:'. ^^*_-^ 178 TUE UMTED ^STATES OF EUIipi'E f t \\ I ) They were powerless before the ohunor of the crowd. Kone the less it seems to lue an enormous mistake." It is quite true that the Belgians, as a nation or as a state, have neA'er committed themselves to a policy of over-sea expansion. They are a cautions people. The Congo adventure is a speculation of the King's. The proposal to transfer the Congo State to Belgium has been vehemently and hitherto successfully resisted. For the last eight years the Belgian Parliament has devoted 400,000 dols. a year to subsidize the Congo administration, and it will continue to do so until 1900, when the question of annexation will once more come up. It is almost certain that the decision will be again postponed. One cause for this reluctance to regard the Congo kingdom as part of the national estate is well worthy of American attention. " If the Americans," said an experienced observer, " wish to rrake a success of the Philippines, as the Belgians have made of the Congo, the first thing they have got to do is to discover a Leopold. They need not call him a king. Of course that is impossible and unnecessary. But unless they have a capable admin- istrator with a permanent tenure of office and a free hand they had better leave it alone. In the Congo State, the King of the Belgians is a greater autocrat than the Tsar in Russia. He invented it, he financed it, he governs it. In every detail his will is supreme. Ho tells us just so much about its finances as he chooses. And, being a man of extraordinary ability, BELGIUM 170 with a quite exceptional genius for finance, he has achieved a remarkable success. But there is hardly a man who knows anything about the C^ongo and its affairs who will not tell you that the attempt to govern that vast empire by the ever-shifting agency of party government, based on universal suffrage, would be foredoomed to failure." But the scruples of the Belgians are disappearing in the presence of the boom in Congo stocks. The ten millions sterling which are now invested in the Congo railway and Congo commercial companies stands to-day, according to the Stock Exchange quota- tions, at no less a sum than thirty millions. The revenues of the State, including the Belgian and royal subsidies of £120,000, almost equal the expenditure, which last year was a trifle under £600,000. The Congo, therefore, promises to turn out a paying con- cern, and if the promises are made good, the objections of the Belgians to become a colonial power will prob- ably wane and disappear. Another point on which opinion was practically unanimous was that it is the merest midsummer mad- ness to touch the Philippines at all unless the Ameri- cans take the whole archipelago. To take away Luzon, the very hub of the wheel, and then leave the rest of the spokes to Spain on the condition that she shall govern them more or less on American principles, was regarded as such unspeakable nonsense that it can only be criticized by an expressive shrug of the shoulders. 1^ 180 Till] UNITED STATE>S OF EUROPE h ! < Belgians arc by no moans indifferent to American expansion in two directions. They are keenly inter- ested in the question of the future government of the Philippines from the point of view of the Catholic Church. For Belgium for the last fourteen years has been governed by a succession of Catholic Ministries. The Liberals who attempted to establish secular edu- cation have been practically effaced. The Clericals are in power, confronted by a Socialist opposition; but the latter have no prospect of gaining office. I made it my duty to ascertain at first hand the views of the two men who, more than any others, repre- sent the feelings of the Catholics. Both were watch- ing with the keenest interest the development of the situation in the Far East. Both agreed in expressing an earnest hope that, whatever is done, no confiscating hand will be laid upon the property of the religious orders. One of them, the man who for years has been, while out of office, almost as potent as Mr. Croker is in ^New York, would not commit himself so far as to say that he disapproved of introducing religious liberty into the Philippines, but he evidently leant that way. " The question," he said, " is whether America intends to govern these new conquests in accordance with the wishes of the population, or whether she intends to exploit them for her ideas. It is not reasonable to say that, because Belgium grants perfect religious liberty to the heathen and missionaries of the Congo, there- fore she must approve of its introduction into the Philippines. There the unity cf the faith exists. If BELOIUM 181 to say ?rty lere- the If you break it down large masses will, as we scv it every- where, forsake the Catholic Church without joiuing any other. The result is immorality, which is deplor- able." The other, an experienced statesman, once a Prime Minister and now the President of the Chamber of Representatives, was much more liberal in his views. I was f ortunal o in meeting him immediately after his return from the Vatican, where he had been sum- moned for lengthy conversations with the Pope and the Cardinal Secretary of State, Rampolla. He expressed without hesitation his absolute convic- tion that religious liberty, as in Belgium and in the F lited States, was the best thing for the Philippines, and that he, for his part, would as a Catholic rejoice to see abolished the whole fabric of intolerance and sectarian monopoly. As he had enjoyed the privilege of long conversa- tions with the Pope and his advisers, I asked him point blank whether he thought the Holy See shared his liberal views. " You cannot expect the Pope," he said, " to make any declaration in that sense. He could not dc so without repudiating doctrines affirmed by his prede- cessors. But he is a statesman ; he is a practical man, and Rome is swarming with American clerics who have considerable influence at the Vatican. You must always distinguish between what the Pope may think with the front of his head and the arriere pe7isee^ the back of it. Of course, as a matter of principle, > I 182 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE t ! no Pope can declare in favor of any refusal to enforce religious uniformity. But if you ask me what I really believe, I mast tell you that if the Americans establish religions liberty in the Philippines the Pope will find his compensations in the increased liberty which he will enjoy in dealing with the clergy without the inter- meddling of the civil power. Keligious liberty, as in Belgium, w^ould not in the long run be detrimental to Catholic interests." T.'tese questions are, however, more or less aca- demical, or at least they concern the few who, in the privacy of the closet of the confessional, meditate upon the affairs of this world from their ideal of the King- dom of Heaven. Far different was the keen interest excited by the pressure of American competition in the markets of the world. Opinions differ widely, but the best in- formed are the most alarmed. American competi- tion in food-stuffs has lone: since established itself as the most formidable factor with which the Eui- pean agriculturist has to deal. They are now begiiming to wake up to the fact that American competition is likely to be not less formidable in manufactured goods. American watches have long ago driven Swiss watches out of Belgium; but as a good Belgian remarked, that concerns the Swiss, not the Belgians. But in the iron and steel trades the shadow of American competition looms dark on the horizon. The other day, in a tender for locomotives, the Bald- win AVorks at Philadelphia offered to put on the rails BELGIUM 183 at Antwerp a locomotive at 500 dols. less than the lowest offer of the great firm of Cockerill. The general conviction that there will soon be a great slump in protection in x\merica by no means lessens their uneasiness. Belgium, as befits a nation which exports manufactured goods averaging £10 per head of population, is all for free trade, and, like Mr. Gladstone, it is inclined to believe that American com- petition will not be seriously begun to be felt until the United States has thrown its markets open to the world. The brave Belgian is not disposed to despair, but those who know most about the resources and capa- bilities of America are the most alarmed. Prince Albert, who will one day sit on the Belgian throne, came back from his visit to the United States profoimdly impressed by the manufacturing resources of America. lie saw the bicycle factories at Hart- ford turning out seven hundred cycles a day; he visited the Baldwin Works, where they build six locomotives a day; he visited Pullman's works, where they turn out a wagon every fourteen minutes; and he tells how Mr. Carnegie produces three-fifths of the whole steel output of England. He spent a week travelling in a private train with Mr. Hill, of St. Paul, and he came home overwhelmed by the spectacle of the mineral and mechanical resources of the Republic. " I saw," he said on his return, " in one place a mountain of ore in which the mineral extracted from the higher levels made its way by natural gravitation i< 184 THE UXTTED STATES OF EUROPE down the hill to meet at the furnace the coal mined at its foot, and almost without the intervention of the hand of man the process was complete. How can we compete with such a country as that? " " Alas! " said Prince Albert to an American friend, "you will eat us all up, you Americans; you will eat us all up." The response of the Belgians to the Tsar's Kescript has been most enthusiastic. On this subject Belgium is practically unanimous. Everywhere the proposal has been liailed with enthusiasm — even in quarters where it might liave been scouted. The Catholics, from the highest to the lowest, are as one man in favor of the Tsar's philanthropic design. In this they are in absolute accord with their head. K^othing could exceed the delight of the Holy Father on receiving the appeal of the Tsar in such a cause. For once there is a veritable reunion of Christendom: the official chiefs of the Greek Orthodox and of the Roman Catholic Churches are now going hand in hand in a crusade of peace. There are special reasons why the Roman Catholics should welcome the Russian pro- posal. Even if the Confereuce did not go one step further than decrceinc; a stav of armaments for five years, it would deliver the Belgian people at once from a constantly pressir^g menace of increased armament^^. For years past there has been a tug-of-war going on in Belgium between the Xing and his subjects on this very question. The Belgian standing army is only 31,000 strong. It is raised by the old-fashioned BELGIUM 185 method of conscription, and hitherto the Belgians have obstinately resented all the appeals of their King to introduce universal compulsory military service. The King is not a man of war. He is emphatically a man of peace. But he stands between two fires. France is always whispering into his right ear that unless he increases his army the Germans will invade France via Brussels; while the Germans whisper as earnestly into his left ear that unless he introduces universal military service Belgium will inevitably be- come the cockpit of the bloodiest war ever fought between civilized men. But the Belgian, who hates even th^ conscription, will not tolerate the idea of uni- versal service. It appeals no doubt to certain demo- cratic prejudices, and it appeals specially to the in- stinct of self-preservation. The Belgian Parliament, however, will have none of it, and the Catholic party, which created and sustains the Government, is irrec- oncilably opposed to the whole scheme. The feud is so fierce that no General can be found who will ac- cept ofiice as Minister of AVar unless the army is en- larged according to the King's desire. The present Minister of AVar is a civilian who tacks on the control of the military machine to the more congenial labors of the Ministry of Ways and Communications. It is obvious what a godsend the Tsar's proposal has been to the governing ' dy in Belgium. At a stroke the Tsar has delivered them from the one dread which has haunted them for years. If the Conference succeeds, and the status quo is stereotyped, the ideal of the 186 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE ' li I B' N":i 1 Km I Belgian Government is attained, for all talk of universal compulsory military service vanishes into limbo. The Socialists look the Kussian gift liorse in the mouth, and shake their heads when they find the prin- ciples on which they have so often insisted coun- tersigned by a Tsar. Some o:. their spokesmen have insisted upon the necessity of inaugurating the Millen- nium by establishing the universal reign of right against might, as a condition preliminary to any ac- ceptance of the disarmament proposal. But the popular feeling is unmistakable. Whether in the press or on the platform, in the palace of the King, or even in the camp of the army itself, there is only one opinion as to the sincerity of the Tsar and the duty of all civilized men to back him up. I spent a Monday afternoon in Liege, the great centre of the Belgian gun trade. There was there in session a Catholic Social Democratic Congress, attended by workmen and a host of Progressive priests from the country side. Although it was not in their regular agenda, a workingman from Brussels insisted upon interpolating into their proceedings a hearty vote of api)reciation and support to the Tsar for his proposal of a Conference of Disarmament. The motion, stud- ded with copious " whereases " and couched in the choicest Catholic phraseology, was carried with una- nimitv and enthusiasm. Men like General Brialmont, who believe in their profession, are dubious about the possibility of achiev- \i . A'. FafitoiiUd'., linifsilx M. IMCEXAKKT (iliiniiitr Fi\rfx, }lnt>:stls M. AVOKSTE (ieruzet Frlns, Jirust^tU llAUOX VOX KKTVKI.DK State Hocrt'tary for tlu' Coiil'o I'l'tc Sinti' PKUMINKNT STATESMEN OF JiEEtilTM Ji'ii.isi// (uiit Sons M. D'aI.VIKI.I.V Iri i •; t. BELGIUM 187 ing any practical result. But the Belgians who do not wear epaulets are more sanguine. What ultimate outcome there may be no one can say. But I saw and heard enough in this microcosm of Europe to realize how grievous will be the disap- pointment, liow terrible the disillusion if the splendid initiative of ihe Tsar is not energetically supported and carried to a successful conclusion. fC-i^ LIBRARY, % ul <■' ^ N I'] 1899 ^vO O- 1 '• I I CHAPTEB n i /^ i , ii' FRANCE Last autumn the Kew W^orld invaded the Old World, and in Paris the Hotel Continental was the headquarters of the Army of Invasion. It was a pacific invasion, no doubt, but the invaders were bent, if not on conquest and annexation, at least upon appro- priation and extension of borders. The struggle that went on between the French authorities and the United States Commissioners of the Exposition of 1900 brought forcibly home to the European the great question of the future. It is a miniature reproduction on a small scale of the conflict of forces which looms ever more gigantic before the eyes of mankind. " Tioom, room, room there for the I^ew World ! " cried Mr. Commissioner-General Peck. The Ameri- can must have room to spread himself and his wares at the AYorld's Pair with which Paris will salute the new century, and the allocation of space in the Expo- sition grounds is far too small. The amiable French Ministers expostulate with polite shoulder shrug. *^ 'Tis impossible. What would our friends the Ameri- cans have us do? Germanv and Great Britain are he Old was the t was a re bent, a appro- French fners of to the It is a conflict ore the orld! " Anieri- 5 wares ite the Expo- rench shrug. A.meri- in are riiK I'Aiiis I'.oriisK TIIK AlK' DK TKIOMl'IIK, I'AUIS ■J " V? ' ' !• II •- FRANCE 189 also imperiously clamoring for more ground space. AVe have already allotted the United States all we can spare. It is impossible, quite impossible." "Impossible!" thunders the Commissioner-Gen- eral; "don't use to me that idiot of a word! Your space is small, I admit — only 336 acres as against 750 acres at Chicago. But our ncBds arc great. Room, make room for the growing giant of the Western World!" What can be done? The 336 acres cannot be stretched like elastic. All the space is appropriated. If Uncle Sam were to have more room, he could only have it at someone else's expense. Perhaps a scrap of space can be secured from a concessionnaiic — here and there a bit can be saucezed from some South American Republic. But if Mr. Commissioner- General Peck and his staff Avero to attain the object on which they had set their hearts, " somebody's got to git." The Americans were quite remorseless, ruthless, relentless in their demands. Chicago, in the person of Mr. Peck, and ^ew York, in the person of Mr. Woodward, backed by President McKinley and the whole of the United States, were determined that who- ever got left in the scramble for space it should not be Uncle Sam. They were hustling round at a great rate, negotiating, blarneying, bullying, buying, push- ing, until the Old World felt that it was being crowded on its own ground, perhaps even crowded out of its own ground by the Western conqueror. 190 Tilt: LMTIJD tiTATEti OF EUROPE What went on in tlie Exposition grounds is going on on land and sea all round this planet. The shrink- age of the world has suddenly brought the nations face to face M'ith each other. In the markets, in the colo- nies, and on the high seas the Old World is beginning to realize that perhaps there may no longer be enough to go round, that somebody is going to get left, and that that somebody is not going to be the N^ew World. Tlie conviction is coming home more slowly to the Frenchmen than to the Belgians, but they are learning it all the same. The result is an immediate increase of the deference paid to the United States by the French. Nothing succeeds like success; and the difference in the attitude of the French to the Americans since Manila and Santiago is more marvellous than edifying. French- men of all classes, who twelve months ago sneered at the " dollar-hunting Yankee " as their forefathers scoffed at " the nation of shopkeepers " across the Channel, are running over each other in a helter- skelter race, vying with each other as to which can first fall on Uncle Sam's neck and embrace him. The way the Fourth of July was celebrated in Paris last year, as compared wath its predecessors, was an object- lesson in the worship of the rising sun. If by any possibility any space could be discovered any way in the Exhibition of 1900 it w'as of course to be made over to the sister Republic, rather than to the German or to the Briton. Was not the Commissioner-General ready to erect a statue of Lafayette in the grounds — if I 3 IS going iie shrink- tions face the colo- jeginning »e enough left, and w AYorld. \y to the ) learning lefcrence Nothing 3 attitude mila and Frencli- leered at refatliers ross the helter- lich can |m. The aris last object- by any way in le made jrerman -xeneral nds — if 1 1 1 ■^1 ^H ^^r^pr* Jii-'ti. ^^^^^^^^^^^^H H K*'." Mi ■ife' ^^^^^^1 1 K.;' .■ ■ ^^M.tf'^^^^^l 1 1 ' 1 Rp^l 1 r J B»^B 1 1 ^^^HK^ i^^H^^^^I .\(t(/(ii\ I'diis M. IMflSSON I'lciiiitT (if FraiKo y^dar. J'linn M. .I.MIJES f'/i. oiji ran. I'm }.-. M. liurM'/riKi!!'; I'.ililin- •• li'cN Me (li's Driix .Mdiides " CKNKIiAI. /.riil.INDKN Militaiv OoviTiior of Paris ForK PK()MTXf:xT fhp:nc'iimkx of to-day . ! i FRANCE 191 only he could get the space on which to set it up ? The Minister of Commerce and the Minister of Foreign Af- fairs vied with each other in paying exceptional com- pliments to the Commissioners of the United States. Xay, it was even hinted that in 1899 American goods would be admitted to France under the minimum tariff, reciprocal concession being of course anticipated on the other side. The war was a revelation to the average Frenchman. ^Vhen Dewey destroyed the Spanish fleet at Manila the scales began to fall from their eyes, and they " saw men as trees walking/' When Cervera's fleet shared the same fate off Santiago, they realized that a new naval power had been born into the w^orld, inheriting from the Destinies, as one of them put it, the good fortune that has always attended the English on the seas. Early in the war a report that the American fleet had been destroyed and Admiral Sampson killed threw the Parisian populace into a paroxysm of de- light. In those days no one disguised his sympathies with Spain. But nowadays they all agree to forget all that, and they are already convinced that there were never such friends of the Americans as the French, and never have been since the world began. All this is very pleasant for Americans in Paris, and it contributed to facilitate the work of the Peace Commissioners. There was no trace of a disposition in official quarters to make any difficulties in settling the terms of peace. If the United States were to insist upon annexing every scrap of territory pos- i *j 192 TIII'J UXITED STATES OF EUROPE {■\ sessed by Spain m the West Indies and the Far East, France would not interfere. The only demur made to the Imperial expansion of the United States comes from experienced observers like M. de Pressense, of the Temps, who regret the new departure, not because it affects France, but because it endangers the Ameri- can Republic. The French are at present exhibiting to the world some of the deplorable results of domi- nant militarism. They sigh when they see the New World gliding down the inclined plane which leads to Caesarism. They declare that the annexation of the Antilles and of the Philippines will necessitate the creation of a large standing army, the enrolment of a corps of functionaries, a departure from all the traditions of the Republic, and a total transformation of the letter and spirit of the American Constitution. In France, as in Britain, it is the men who know most of the United States — such men as Mr. Bryce and M. de Pressense — who are most alarmed as to the conse- quences of the new departure of the Xew AVorld. When I was in Paris I wrote to the Asbociated ]^ress : — I see that there appears still to be some question as to whether the European Powers ever actually proposed to intervene on behalf of Spain. The story was that they had decided to do so, and were only stopped by the blunt intima- tion from Lord Salisbury that if they ever attempted any such thing the British fleet would be placed under the orders of Mr. McKinley. It is a very pretty tale, and Lord Salis- bury might have said something of the kind if the other Powers had been mad enough to propose any such thing. Pobsibly some influential Briton did say something of the FRANCE 103 kind when talk of intervention was in the air. But I have the highest official authority, both British and French, for stating that there was never any proposal brought forward by M, Hanotaux for European intervention against the United States, and that therefore no occasion arose for the exercise of the friendly offices of England. I regret having to destroy the legend, but magna est Veritas, and however delighted John Bull might have been to have lent a friendly hand to Uncle Sam if the Continental Powers had tried to interfere, he never had the chance. And for this reason. The European Powers, and France most of all, had too much sense. as to d to had tima- any )rders Salis- other hlng. f the The origin of this story I discovered two months later when I visited Vienna. The legend had, after all, an indestrnctible ])asis of truth. Men of the world, men of experience, men of affairs — above all, men who are deeply versed in the tor- tuous wiles of diplomacy — agree in expecting nothing from the Conference of Disarmament, and in fearing much. If the hard-pressed toilers of the world are to obtain any appreciable relief from the crushing load of Militarism, they will have to extend to the generous initiative of the Tsar a much, more hearty reception than it is receiving from the men in office. The Democracy may help the Autocracy to achieve this boon for the human race. It will certainly not reach them at the hands of the Bureaucracy. Every^vherc the Governments have answered the ]\[uravieff Rescript with the customary courtesy that is always extended to anything that is said by the master of many legions, but, with one or two excep- tions, of responsive enthusiasm there has been none. 18 ^ 194 TEE UNITED STATED OF EUROPE '■ 'I m^ Every one admits the sincerity of the Tsar, every one professes to admire his idealism and his philanthropy. But when all that is said and doxie, there is the most astonishing consensus of opinion that " it is not busi- ness." " Everything," they say with a shrug of the shoulders, " will go on exactly the same as before. There is onlv one Circular the more." So speak everywhere th'^ cynical and very much disillusioned diplomatists. Diplomacy, it must be admitted, is not usually a forcing-bed for moral enthu- siasms. Ambassadors and Ministers who for the last thirty years have been perpetiially face to face with the omnipresent activity of Bismarck may be pardoned for thinking twice, and even thrice, before they expect any good thing to come from the Nazareth of Imperial Chancelleries. Men who for the last half-dozen years have been familiarized with the ineptitude of the European Concert can hardly be expected to have many illusions left as to the possibility of bringing in the Kingdom of Heaven by any sort of international compact. It is only in the hearts of the common people, and among the masses whore, far from the coulisses of diplomacy a'xid the intrigues of Courts, men still cherish generous (enthusiasms and an un- shaken faith in the great ideals of Peace, Justice and Progress, tliat the Tsar's proposal elicits any hearty response. " After all," said a young countryman, after a long discussion with a friend, " the Millennium is bound to come some day, and who can say whether it may not come this way as well as any other! " " The L, FRANCE 195 Millennium is bound to come some day " — there is the keynote of the situation. From those who believe that, who cling to it as the great hope of the world, as the eternal pole star of the progress of mankind, the Conference on Disarmament receives a welcome the heartiness of which is only weakened by the haunting fear that it may be too good to be true. The full significance of the Tsar's initiative has, however, as yet been but dimly perceived, even by those who have welcomed it most heartily. Alto- gether apart from its proposals, or the subject of them, it carries written in every line of it the glad tidings of great joy that the winter of the period of old age is over and gone, and that once more mankind is facing the glad, joyous spring-time of a new century, under the leadership of those whose hearts are still fresh with the divine inspiration of youth. The old century is dying — let it die. Dr. Busch's " Secret Pages of Bis- marck's History " furnii'>hes us at once with its epitaph and its condemnation^ But lo! the sky glows in the East with the first promise of the splendor of the com- ing day. In the Imperial Rescript, however Utopian it may be, we have the first great challenge which the new age has flung at the feet of the most gigantic evil of our time. Here, at least, is something of the faith, the cou^:tge, and the magnificent audacity of youth. In the task of high emprise to which Nicholas II. sum- mons the nations of the world he may fail. It is not in mortals to command success. But it is better to have tried and failed than never to have tried at all. 196 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE i Hence, the more we think of it, the more just, the more true, appears the pregnant dictum of Mr. Morley. The Tsar's appeal is a touchstone of the peoples. " It will show us what we are and where we stand." It is natural that in France, and most of all in Paris, the doubting spirit which denies should be paramount. It is a hundred years since France used up the enthu- siasm of the lievolution in lighting the camp fires of the N^apolconic armies. Since then, although there has ever been a remnant who have preserved the sacred fire, " the men who swing France," whether under monarclis, Empire or Kepublic, have not exactly been French-speaking Quixotes. So far, indeed, have mod- ern Frenchmen gone in the other direction that I well remember, ten years ago, hearing one, now recognized as one of the most influential diplomatists, laughing to scorn the notion that there was even enough idealism left in France to make the war of revenge popular with the people. " There are only two men in France," he said in his bitter, sarcastic fashion, " who ever think of such an ideal thing as the fate of Alsace- Lorraine, and one of them is a woman." He referred, of course, to the soldier-poet, Paul Deroulede, who has just been threatening M. Clemenceau with the guillo- tine, and Madame Adam, of the Nouvelle Revue. The worship of material comfort has succeeded all other ideals with most Frenchmen. Hence the Tsar's ap- peal falls upon ears stuffed as with cotton wool, and awakens slight response in hearts which resound all day long with the Babel of the Bourse. There is no FRAXCE 197 st, tlie [orley. . "It L Paris, mount, enthu- fires of h. there 3 sacred • under ly been ve mod- 1 1 well ognized liing to dealism popular men in , " who Alsace- eferred, who has guillo- e. The 1 other ar's ap- 3ol, and >und all re is no longer a Victor Hugo worthily to respond in the name of France to the initiative of the Tsar. The faithful few who arc true to the great ideals of the Revolution, and the still smaller renmant who worship in secret at the shrine of the Prince of Peace, are overborne in the roar and rush of politicians and financiers. They find it more than they can do even to keep the scales of justice free from the sword of Brennus at home. They have no energy left to com- bat militarism abroad. The army itself, which is tra- ditionally supposed to be the cradle of all that is most exalted in heroic sentiment, can hardly be expected to wax very enthusiastic in support of a Peace Confer- ence. But there is another reason for the coolness of Paris towards the Conference. The French felt hurt that they had not been consulted by their ally beijre he issued the Rescript. They anticipated nothing in the world so little as such a proposal from such a quar- ter. Not disarmament, but more armaments, was their idea of what the Tsar desired. To oblige him they had even allowed French shipbuilders to give priority to the construction of Russian warships over those of France, to the production of which it had re- peatedly been declared all the shipbuilding resources of the nation would be exclusively devoted. The Re- script, therefore, simply took away their breath. They felt themselves, in more senses than one, " up a tree." They did not know where they were or what the Tsar Avas driving at. Tliev thought he was spoiling for a fight, and lo! he issued an encyclical to the 198 THE USITED STATES OF EUROPE ■A world at large, proclaiming the supreme importance of Peace ! Behind all that first natural sensation of surprise there was another which wer t much deeper. The pro- posal to attend a Conference to discuss disarmament ,' «me^^ suggest that there was no longer a purpose f*» ]u'« jv'ng up such gigantic military establishments. In ' ;;,.)i' nords, it appeared to imply that Europe had at last settiea down in a state of normal equilibrium, and that everybody was practically content with the existing fr< ntiers. That was, in effect to ask all the nations of the Avorld to enter upon a pact cf peace, the practical result of which would be that each and all of them would countersign and guarantee the Treaty of Frankfort. That treaty, indeed, would, in such a case, become the very charter and basis of the system which the Conference was to inaugurate. Farewell, then, to all hope of the Revanche; farewell for ever to Alsace and Lorraine ! To bid such farewells may be obeyed if it be a decree of the Destinies, against which it is vain to repine and impotent to rebel. But to be suddenly summoned by your own friend and partner, dpropos de rine, to say those farewells at a moment's notice — that, indeed, was more than French human nature could bear. Hence, after the publication of the Rescript, a profound and miserable chill came over French sentinient towards their Russian all v. That mood existed, but it has passed. Count Mura- vieff had no difficulty in explaining that the Tsar was bound, in taking- such initiative, to consult no other :l' FRANCE 199 taiice rprise e pro- iment irpose nents. )e had )rmm, th the ill the 36, the nd all Treaty such a system rewell, >r ever nay be which t to be artner, ment's luman ion of came Uv. Mura- 5ar was other Power, for the twofold reason that if he had consulted any one it would have compromised the Power he t( >k into his confidence and have offended the other Powers who were not consulted. It was equally easy to ex- plain that wliile the Rescript might initiate a policy that hereafter might have immense consequences, it did not even suggest any such cliimerical a step as the immediate disbandment, or even the immediate reduc- tion, of armaments. What w , suggested was merely to cry halt in tlie race to ruin, ar to discuss arrange- ments for arresting the contniuous increase of expen- diture on armies and navies. If France objected, of course nothiue- could be done. The absolute inde- pendence of each Power ^vas intact. But there were good reasons wli}'^ France slioidd not object. She has already reached the uhimate limit of her resources in men. She could uot increase the annual contingent of recruits, for the simple but sufficient reason that French mothers no longer bear enough boys to furnish any more food for powder. Germany has still a vast reservoir of surplus manhood to draw upon. To stereotype the status quo would therefore be at least as great a gain to France in this respect as it could be to Germany by its indirect and apparent consecration of the Treaty of Frankfort. There were still other reasons which have con- tributed not a little to assuage the irritation felt in France at the Tsar's proposal. It was obvious that the first condition sine qua non of the meeting of the* Con- ference was that the Powers represented, in agreeing •t; /*.^ 800 THE i'XITED STATES OF EUROPE 6i k to discuss the financial, military, and economical prob- lem mooted by the Tsar, did so without prejudice to all the political and territorial questions on Avliich they differed. At one time, it is conceivable, a Tsar might have refused to enter into a Conference with France, lest it might appear to imply that he recognized the principle of Kepul)licanisni, Xow not even the great- est stickler for the Divine right of Kings fools that he is false to his convictions or consecrates the principle of the Revolution by meeting the lepresentatives of the Republic, or even of entering into an alliance with a Republican Government. As it is M'ith political questions, so it is with those relating to frontiers. They are as much out of the purview of the Confer- ence as questions of dynasties or of the rival principles of Monarchy and Democracy. The Conference will no more discuss the question of Alsace-Lorraine than it will discuss transubstantiation or the Rights of Man. But that is not all. For the Tsar has at hand a valuable and effective reply to the French complaint. The proposed Conference may postpone the immediate outbreak of a war of revenge for the revindication of the lost provinces, l^ut it certainly does not do so more decisively than the French had done already by their great exhibition of 1900. That Exhibition is itself a kind of Peace Conference. When France invited Germany to exhibit her goods in the great show of the new century, she acquiesced in the status quo. Of course, she did not guarantee Germany the un- interrupted possession forever of her lost provinces. ill ti FRANCE 301 Neither will she do so by accepting the Tsar's invita- tion. But she did give Germany the very best and liiost substantial security against a sudden French at- tack that an;, one could desire. These and other con- siderations have had their weiglit, and the momentary irritation against their Kussian ally has already abated. The question as to whether the French people are longing for revenge and the revindication of their lost provinces is one on which the most widely diverse opinions are expressed. There is, however, substan- tial agreement among men of all shades of opinion that while France vigilantly maintains all her reserves and is resolved to take advantage of all the opportuni- ties which fortune may send her to regain her old provinces, she will never of her own motion or on her own initiative make war on Germany. A leading French statesman with whom I was discussing this question expressed in the very strongest terms his con- viction that no French ^linistrv will ever take the initi- I. ative in attacking Germany. "' The risk would be too great, the sacrifices too immense. If Germany were involved in war elsewhere — ah, then, tliat would be another matter. But as long as Germany is at peace we shall not lift a finger to dispos'^ess her." This helps to enable us to understand what a powerful security for peace the ineradicable yearning for the lost prov- inces has become in Europe to-day. A shrewd and experienced observer in Paris, on the other hand, told me that the popular feeling in favor of war was stronger now than ii had ever been since 1870. 208 THE UNITED HTATEH OF EUROPE ii t The lessons of that terrible year have been forgotten. Paris is now in the hands of young men to whom the bombardment of Paris is only a matter of history and of tradition. Bismarck is gone. All the great Gen- erals who conquered France are dead. The French army was never stronger or better equipped than now. If the French saw their chance, they would not hesi- tate for a moment. If, for instance, the Russian Em- peror but held up his little finger ! But the Russian Emperov is holding his little finger down. There is another side to this alleged eagerness of France for war. It is the French of the Parisian boulevards that talk so lightly of so dire a catastrophe. France of the provinces — laborious, thrifty, cautious France — is of another opinion. A brilliant and dis- tinguished Frenchman — diplomatist, journalist, and patriot — assured me that the French peasant was very far from sharing the views of the boulevards. " If you were to go to-day,'' he said, '' to the average French peasant, and tell him that the circumstances were so propitious that he could certainly reconquer Alsace-Lorraine by an expenditure of only 10,000 men and £10,000,000, he would reply unhesitatingly, * No; I will not spend either the men or the money.' " It may be so. But the worst of it is that the war is made before the peasant has an opportunity of having his say. It is not his to decide. It is only his to pay, to suffer, and to die. The question of the Peace Conference I found ex- cited little attention in Paris excepting on account of FRANCE 203 tlie bearing which it uiight have on the Franco-Rus- sian Alliance. AVhen that alliance was formed, those who did not know the Tsar imagined that it was a menace to the peace of Europe. Those who knew the Tsar knew otherwise. The object of Alexander III. in thus restoring the equilibrium of Europe and in satisfying the wounded amour propre of France was the natural culmination of the policy which won for him the title of the Peace Keeper of the Continent. In his eyes France isolated, France nervous, France desperate, was a constant menace to the ])eace of the world. At any moment she might make a plunge, by which she would hurl not only herself but all other nations into the hell of a general war. To prevent this it was necessary to offer her inducements sufficient to lead her to acquiesce in the status quo. There were two perils of war before Europe, both threatened by France. She had never accepted either the German possession of Alsace-Lorraine or the British occupation of Egypt. To attempt to reestablish her position either in Metz or in Cairo meant war. To minimize the risk of any such peace-shattering policy, Alexander III., without asking for any express disclaimer by his ally of hostile designs directed either against Germany or Britain, virtually secured the practical acceptance of the status quo by offering France an alliance which was guaranteed to fall to pieces if slie undertook an aggressive war. Russia flung over tlie French Repub- lic the immense segis of her alliance, delivering France from all dread of attack from without, and r storing i 204 TIIJ'J US IT ED STATERS OF EUROPE her at once to the position in Europe which she had lost in 1870. But all these advantages were forfeited if France drew the sword against the existing order, the sUdiis quo ch facto on the Khine and the Xile. Hence the Franco-Russian Alliance became, as it was intended it should become, a solid security for Euro- pean peace, and therefore, little as the Erencli liked it, a virtual consecration of the Treaty of Frankfort. It was acclaimed, no doubt, by the Chauvinists of the boulevards as if it were the first step to the Revanche. It was exac'ly the opposite. But Baron Mohrenheim appears to have fooled the self-deluded Frenchmen to the top of their bent, while the Tsar, conscious that he had made the limitations of the alliance absolutely clear to the rulers of the Republic, felt under no obli- gation to make public declarations which might have annulled tlie whole object of his policy of peace. The Tsar knew also that although the boulevards of Paris might revel in the delirium of anticipated war, the French nation, pacific and industrious, hailed with im- mense relief an alliance which delivered it at once from all risk of foreign attack, or from the still greater peril of such a lieadlong rush to ruin as that which cul- minated on the battlefield of Sedan. France is preoccupied with the Dreyfus case. And the Dreyfus case is militarism come to judgment, mili- tarism made manifest before the world. The tree is known by its fruits, and the impoiichment of militar- ism on economic grounds contained in the ]\Iuravieff circular is supplemented and made complete by the i I !■ FRANCE 205 And niili- ree is lilitav- •avioff )y the revelation of the outcome of militarism in the moral Held. " j\Iilitarism," says the Tsar, '" empties the pockets of the nations." And France, responding across the Continent, as deep answers unto deep, answers, ''And destroys their souls! " France, preoccupied, absorbed, possessed by the T3reyfus case, is the drunken helot of militarism to- day. She is as one bewitched, the prey of some foiil obsessing demon, which takes a perverse delight in compelling her to wallow in all manner of defilements, from which " ideal France, the deathless, the divine," would have recoiled with angry scorn. It is the Nem- esis of the system against which the Tsar has taken the field. France never had a more numerous or bet- ter equipped army than she possesses at present. But France never was weaker, more timorous, more under the terror of those nightmares which disturb the sleep of nations. It is not an exaggeration to say that the net result up to date of all the sacrifices which France has made over her armaments is to make her a prey to panic to an extent almost inconceivable to any one outside Paris. You ask in amazement : '' Whv all this tremendous hubbub over the revision of a sentence admittedly illegal, defended by evidence admittedly forged? " and the opponents of revision "whisper with white lips that revision would inevitably bring about war! To avoid the risk of so terrible an alternative, better let a thousand innocent men perish in the Devil's Isle! Thus it appears that France, despite all her armaments — nay, is it not because of them? — has ! ( I I 206 TUIJ IMTED ISTATEi^ OF ELlWl'i: l)ecome so coward of heart and craven of .spirit that she dare not even do justice to one of her own officers for fear of the foreigner! Such abject poltroonery would disgrace the pettiest of states without a gun in its arsenal or a fort on its frontiers. But to this pass has come to-day this distraught Ivepublic. The delirium will pass. Ilevision is already virtu- ally secured, and the light is already beginning to break through the dense darkness in which France has lain so long. But for the present the country is still in the throes of a ic\er, which springs as directly from the atmosphere of the barrack-room as ague re- sults from the malaria of the marsh. Xations create armies that they may be strong and independent, able to do justice within their own frontier, none daring to make them afraid. But France, having sacrificed everything to the creation of her army, has been afraid to do justice because of her army. The army, no longer a means to an end, having become an end in itself, thus tends to defeat the very aim and object of its being. The nation, or at least such portions of the nation as find articulate expression in the press, has been in a very ague fit of fear. It cowered before its o\vn shadow. It trembled at the thought of the wrath of the foreigner. It shrieked in panic dread at the mere suggestion that even officers of the General Staff should be compelled to obey the laws. There is no crime which its more demented spokesmen do not com- mit, either in imagination or in fact. They glorify forgery, applaud suicide, and openly exult in the pros- FliAXCE 207 n'c its ^vratll it the Staff is no com- lorify pros- pective massacre of tlioiisands of tlieir fellow-country- men. Everything that is base, everything that is dis- honorable, everything that is cowardly, everything that is false, abject and criminal forms the constant meditation of Frenchmen to-day. AVhichever side they belong to, these arc the things they impute to each other; and if th-y are the party in power, these are the things they employ without hesitation in their panic-stricken warfare against a nightmare. To such a pass has militarism dominant brought our once noble France — France of the Ivevolution, France of Jeanne d'Arc. It is easy to see the direct bearing of this upon the proposal of the Tsar. In the Middle Ages the knights progressively increased the thickness of their armor until the fighting-man became a mere iron-cased mummv. He had not sufficient strength to move be- ncath his defences. In France we see the same phe- nomenon in the moral field. Her moral vitality is no longer sufficient to move under the superincumbent mass of her armaments. The old ideas, so distinct- ively French, of Chivalry, Liberty, Justice, Law — all the sublime ideals which made France for centuries the kniglit-errant of liumanity — appear to liave per- ished beneath the weight of her immense military sys- tem. The amour propre of the army, the prestige of a staff, liave superseded the nobler ideals of national life. Matters are much worse now thTu in the Middle Ages. Vo the iron and steel cuirasses of the over- loaded knights were at least inert matter. But the if r:i 208 THE LXI'J D >iTAli:-l 01 -JLU'd'E armature beneath wliicli the ntUioi) is peiibliing to-day has a horrible vitality of its own. it is, as it were, alive, and believes that the body exists for it, and that brain, heart, conscience, and the ideal, wMcli are col- lectively the sonl of the nation, is a itn'nus (piantity compared with ihc prestige^, the authority, and the con- venience of the army. They, if n<»t the ultimate, must at least be very near the ultimate, stage in the self-destructive evolution of modern militarism. No- where in Ein'ope could the J'sar find so terrible an object-lesson of the results of the baneful system upon which he is making war. France is a puissant ally, indeed, in the great argument for diearmament. The danger spot in Europe is, n») doubt, Alsace- Lorraine. But 'he beneficent Power who maketh even the wrath of man to praise llini seems to be em- ploying this Dreyfus delirium of ])anic and crime to reduce the acuteness of that danger. England long ago lost the moral allegiance of the Irish, the majority of whom are f ; ;nore American than English. The Dreyfus busiut • Is probal)ly the most direct means by which France could have alienated the moral alle- giance of the Alsatian })oople. That which the Treaty of Frankfort failed to effect the Dreyfus scandal is fast accomplishing. The people of Alsace see with amazement and indignation the denial of justice to Alsatians. Albert Di-eyfus in the He du Diable is an Alsatian. So is Colonel Piccpiart. It is enough to bear an Alsatian name to be hounded down as a Ger- man. To be a Protestant is almost as heinous a crime I liiiig to-day as it were, it, and that licli are coi- ns (jnantity md the con- e r.ltimate, itagc in the irism. No- terrible an ystcni npon iis?ant ally, nent. bt, Alsace- ho niaketh LS to be em- id crime to gland long le majority lish. ' The means by iioral alle- tlio Treaty scandal is e see with justice to iable is an enough to as a Ger- iis a crime FA-< Al'lAIN DWKVKl.S \'ii rif \'i I'll . /'iiri'i (IKNKIi Al. .Mi;i!( IKK ^^ BBFJ'IRrfto'^ !• ^t^^^fT ifca B^'.^j^ '^!F • ^Bt'^fefe*^ "^ ^^^iHMQr^VlfeC * i^^^^^^K H^^^l ^ 'TH^^^ ^^^^^eBF'^^ W^ jm^fm^- i;\< oi.oNKi. iM< t^i Airr < oin r i;>i i;i;ii azy fiuMK OK TilM I'lJOMlNKNT KKJl'lil ■ IN IIIK DUKYFIS AFFAlli f i Ri'i » I FRAyCE 200 as to 1)C a Jew. Tlio lioncst Alsatians do not under- stand all this. Their patrie, to whose fortunes they have clung with a tonehing ..dolity, was a different France from this. So they are nithlessly being driven from their allegiance, and every day they are more and more strongly tempted to become nice reconciled to the German. It was of no nse discussing in Paris the details of the Conference on Disarmament. Xo one spares the subject a thought. That is not the way the Franco- Russian Alliance works. His French ally is helping the Tsar in a much more effective fashion. For this Dreyfus business has pretty effectively resulted in the practical di^^armament of France. Xever since the Commune stood at bay behind the ramparts of Paris has France been so paralyzed by internal divisions. As long as the Dreyfus business lasts, France is a cipher in Europe. AVlienever for a moment the saner France emerges from the Malebolgic pool of passion, suspicion, hatred and savagery beneath which it is sub- merged, there always comes, as a flood tide, a revived interest in the affaire Dreyfus. What a turbid tide it is, reeking from the cloaca maxima of the world, bearing along upon its turbid waves the bloody corpse of the suicide TTenrv, which tosses about amid the wreck of much higher reputations, the disjecta mem- bra of the General Staff. It is a mournful spectacle. But who can deny that it makes for general peace? There is, of course, a possibility that the A'ery mad- ness of the hour mav lead to some sudden outbreak. I, 14 i ' 210 THE UNITED »ST.irL\V OF EUROPE ) > 'i I*; /■-■ ^ - !l i I As Count Arnim wrote in 1871: " The French cannot be judged by the same standard as other nations. They have no sense of proportion, and attach impor- tance to matters that in reality have no significance. In a madhouse the merest trifles may lead to a revolt, and even if it be suppressed, it may first cost the lives of many honest people." There is a danger here, no doubt. But, as Bismarck wrote about the same time : " Two peoples dwell in France — the French and the Parisians. The former loves i^eace. The latter writes the newspapers, and seeks to pick a quarrel which the other then has to fight out. Both, however, should clearly remember how near the German army is at Chateau Thierry." The German army is no longer at Chateau Thierry. But the solid argument of force is quite as irresistible to-day as it was in 1871, perhaps even nr ore so. And now there is added to that ultima ratio ngun the fact that the Tsar, the ally and the friend of France, has sumr.oned all nations to a Parliament of Peace. f i ■ CHAPTER III GERMANY In a bright apartment overlooking Friodricli Wil- lielni Strasse I sat pleading the other day for the Tsar's proposals. I was addressing myself to the gracious lady of the household, who, as she sat with her fifteen- months-old boy nestling in her arms, seemed a living personification of the ]\[adonna and Child, uniting the glory of motherhood with the infinite promise of youth. She was no unworthy symbol of Europe. In her veins ran the mingled strain of noble blood of divers nations, and the face glowed with the noble enthusiasm of the political and social ideals to which she has dedicated her life. The curly-headed boy, coyly looking upon the stranger from the stronghold of his mother's arms, might have been the original of Eaphael's Divine Child. As I talked of the need of the nations for release from the intolerable burden of militarism, she sighed. " Indeed, indeed, it is true. But will it come from such a quarter? His ideas in the Rescript are alto- gether our ideas. As Rebel said the other day, ^ The Tsar is now" our comrade a^id ally.' But we do not trust Russia." 212 THIJ UMTJJD STATES OF EUROPE i .- ,'i ' 1 ■'.,' ? fr i" ■^ I i: P 1 , '* Do not look a gift horse in the mouth," I replied, " is a very good proverh. And great good once came out of Nazareth. But if these are your ideas, why not su])port the ideas even when they are put forward hy the Tsar^ " " These are our ideas indeed. J^J^o Social Democrat nor any section of the working population of Germany but would welcome with open arms any practical pro- posal to deliver the people from the corvee of mili- tarismus, which is so teri'ible a burden upon " Here we were suddenly interrupted. The chubby cherub had climbed down from his mother's lap, and was foraging about for his picture-book. He found it, and turning over the pages, suddenly shouted with infantile glee, ignoring our talk — "'Daten! 'Daten! " The little fellow was standing erect, with flashing eye. ^o longer was he the Divine Child of Bethle- hem, but rather an infant Hercules, so stout, so stal- wart did he seem. And again he shouted imperi- ously — "'Daten! 'Daten!" " AVhat does the little chap want? " I asked. " Ach," said his mother, looking down with pride upon her child, " it has always been so. I suppose it is in his blood. My father, you know, was a general. From the first moment he could observe anything it was the same. Always 'Daten, 'Date n! Soldaten he means. Soldiers. Xo picture pleases him so much as that of soldiers. Always a soldier passing by fas- 1: GEIiMASY 213 cinates liiin. Thou little rogue,' ' she said, " there is nothing like soldateii for thee, is it not so^ " And I felt as she spoke that from the childish lips the AVord of the Situation had come. All the ele- ments of the problem were there. I was speaking up for the Tsar's proposal. She was replying as Europe has replied, and in the midst of our talk of peace and our invectives against militarism, the child, the lierr of the future, interrupts with the cry, '' 'Daten! 'Daten! " Alas, it may now be that once more from the mouth of the babe and suckling there has fallen the winged word of truth. "When in Paris I asked Max Xordau if he believed there was any possible chance of evoking a genuine, widespread, passionate protest from the European masses against the burden of militarism, now for the first time challenged in the name of humanity in the name of the Tsar. '" Xo," he replied unhesitatingly, " not at all." " Why," I asked; " do they not groan under the burden?" He answered, ''I know inti- mately the South German peasant. Ask any of them if they wish for war. ' Gott bewahre! ' they wdll reply, ^ there is nothing that we hate more.' l>ut then if you again ask, ' Then you do not love the uni- form? ' they will sav, ' Oh, that is another matter. We love the uniform and are proud to wear it. To protest against war — that is possible; to protest against the uniform, no, that w^ould not succeed.' " From which it w^ould seem that the love of soldaten is not confined to the grandsons of generals. It is a IMAGE EVALUATION TEST TARGET (MT.3) A 1.0 I.I 1.8 1.25 1.4 14 ^ 6" - ► V} e //, VI '*^- A /A ^W^ 7 Photographic Sciences Corporation 23 WEST MAIN STREET WEBSTER, NY. 14580 (7)6) 872-4503 T o jj" ■ 214 THE UXITED HTATEH OF ElUtOl'E I' ' widespread if not a universal fascination. This is not due to any desire to fight. Much of it, indeed, is due to a desire to avoid fighting. The corvee of military serxice, the excessive burden of military expenditure are l)orne, if not cheerfully, then, at least, stolidly, as a necessary premium to ensure them against war. It is a kind of enchantment, as of some malevolent wiz- ardry, by which peoples, whose only desire is to remain at peace, p^e persuaded that the only protection against war is to arm themselves to the teeth. I spoke on the subject with the leader of the Free Trade party, who alike as deputy and journalist is free from all suspicions of militarism, lie expressed in tlie strongest terms his conviction that no popular demand existed for a reduction of armaments in Ger- many. '* Our people," he said, " have gro^vn used to their military panoply. They do not feel its pressure as you might think they would. It is part and parcel of their national existence. They can hardly conceive life without militarv service, without the uniform. The best proof of this is that on every occasion when the question of an increase of armaments has been put to the people at a general election tluy have always voted in favor of the increase. Take last election. There existed, no doubt, a strong feeling against the increase of the fleet, but when the election was held any party that had opposed the fleet programme would have been sM'ept away." " Your eminent (le])uty forgets," replied a leading Social Democrat, to whom I had repeated these obser- ■I ] ■ I)l{. HKIITKK COUNT lIKHlUnn' IWSMAUi K irKltIt IIKIIKL l.FADKIJS OF (JKI?MA\ POLITICAL PAHTI KS fi ( t :|i r I (: GERMANY 215 vations, " that the Social Democrats have always op- posed the increase o*^ armaments, and that every gen- eral election has seen an increase of their total poll. AVhat he says is true possibly of the lower middle class, of the trading class, of the higher class. But of the masses of the population it is not true. The men upon whom the blood tax falls, the artisan, the laborer, the peasant, by them militarism is detested. I wish you could attend our Conference at Stuttgart, mingle with the delegates, speak with those who are of the people, and judge for yourself what the mil- lions of workers think of armaments. As for the in- crease of the fleet, that was voted on under the clever management of the Kaiser, who used the Kiao-Chau incident to overpower the opposition. But no one would welcome more than the German masses any diminution in the weight which crushes them to-day." There is truth in both these opinions. No doubt the Social Democrats have made continuous protest against armaments, but their members are themselves not without pride at having served in the army, and anything more distant from the Quaker, or Stundist, or Tolstoian view of military things than that of the German Social Democrat it would be difficult to im- agine. Ever since 1808 this German nati(»n has been passed through the military mill. The habit of mili- tary service has become a universal family tradition. Their fathers and their grandfathers before them wore the uniform. Their sons and their grandsons after them they expect will wear it. The uniform, in fact, ill i I 2ir THE UMTED STATES OF EUROPE ■ > ^ . f! , I ''« has become a second skin; even the suggestion of peel- ing it off is almost unthinkable. And as for peace, the Kaiser but expressed the universal conviction of his subjects when he said that the besi security for peace was the sharp sword of the German army. This may be admitted, and still there may be ample grounds for welcoming the Congress, and for hoping that at that international parliament, some short simj)le measure may be agreed upon that might here- after come to be regarded by the historian as the line dividing the watershed of the old era and the new. All notion of any diminution of the effective strength of the armed forces of the world must be dismissed at once as at present absolutely out of the question. Of disarmament in the sense of even so much as one single soldier in the armed camp which we call the Continent disarming himself, laying do^vn his rifle, and tramping off home, — that is not even to be thought of. To pro- pose to send that one soldier home might precipitate the one catastrophe the thought of which is the night- mare of Europe. But it is possible that the first step towards better things may be taken at the Conference in the shape, say, at first, of a proposal to limit the expenditure on armies and na 'ies for the next five years to their present maximum, and afterwards, of a suggestion for the reduction of the term of military service. The former would be operative at once, and even if it were in some cases evaded, the mere fact that such an international agreement had been arrived at would powerfully strengthen the opposition which in ! ' GERMANY '>17 and every country would be made to any further addition to the naval and military budget. As for the latter, it would be for the time being a mere pious aspiration. But it is in the line of a reduction of the period during which men remain with the colors rather than by any reduction of the numbers called up that any progress is likely to be made. There is no country in Europe where the Tsar's pro- posal wull be supported with more apparent heartiness than in Germany. The Kaiser welcomed it with ef- fusion — and then increased his army by 2G,000 men. The press, with the curious exception of the Vorwarts, the Social Democratic organ, and the Preussische Jahrbucher^ the organ of the Conservative Dr. Del- briick, praised it with one accord. " Such a philan- thropic young ruler, such noble aspirations," and so forth. But after having delivered themselves of the conventional compliments that are necessary when the master of many millions proposes anything, the diplomatists and the journalists shrugged their shoul- ders, and with astonishing unanimity declared that " nothing would come of it." And, truly, nothing can come of it if it is left to them. For these conical ^':eptics would addle even the egg of a phoenix if it were left to their care. Germany supports the proposal from considerations of German interest. It would not do to offend the Tsar by criticizing harshly a benevolent proposal that will come to nothing; and then, again, if by a miracle it did come to anything, it could only improve the i S18 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE If ii ' \ ' >: ■P^ if Ii >'■« i t 1 : security of Germany by strengthening the guarantees for European 2)eace, From a military point of view Germany never felt herself more absolutely secure. Tor them there is no more any question of Alsace-Lor- raine. That is vorbei. The Ireatv of Frankfort has taken its place among the most stable and unques- tioned bases of the international law of Europe. Any- thing, therefore, that gives more stability to the status quo strengthens Germany, and increases the com- 2:)osure with which she can contemplate perils on her western frontier. The French General Staff appears to the Germans to have gone to pieces completely in the confusion over Dreyfus, and M. Deroulede and his patriots appear for the moment to be the most effective allies Germany could desire in keeping guard over Strasburg and Metz. So far, therefore, Germany can be relied upon to support the Tsar, but except in one direction there has been no sign as yet visible of any desire to give effect- ive expression to popular sympathy with his object. The solitary exception is significant. The "Woman's League for Liternational Disarmament which exists in Bavaria is endeavoring to bring about in all the capitals of Europe a simultaneous demonstration by the women of the Continent in favor of the Tsar's pro- posal. How the matter \vill be arranged it is as yet too early to say, or what measure of success may attend it. But if the International Council of Women were to desire an opportunity to justify its existence it could hardly desire a better opening than the present, ^o GElfMAXY 219 object more worthy of the combined effort of the womanhood of the world could be imagined than this of arresting the ever-increasing g;rowth of modern armaments. Certain it is that if King Demos does not move, and if the mothers of the household are indifferent, then indeed in the future even more than in the present or the past, the word of the situation will be " 'Daten ! 'Daten! " Ever more soldaten! Berlin, which has been described by Maximilien Harden as Parvenuopolis, and L regarded by the Kaiser as the capital of Europe, is in reality the Chi- cago of the Old World. It has dethroned Vienna as the capital of the Holy Koman Empire as completely as Chicago has distanced St. Louis. It now challenges the supremacy of Paris with all the arrogance and more than the success with which Chicago has hitherto disputed the primacy of I^ew York. It is like Chicago in many things, but most of all in self- confidence and a lordly disdain for its neighbors and rivals. From this central standpoint of the reconstituted Empire the German looks out upon the !N'ew World with a sort of indignant surprise. The Intelligence Department of the Germans is believed to be the best in the world. Wl; at the German does not know is not knowledge. And when the recent war began, the German was quite sure he knew all about the way in which it would go. His impartiality was not impaired by any sympathy with the Latin race. He held both n L t 220 THE UNITED f^TATES OF EUROPE •I ;i h ■■ combatants in equal dislike. Spain had been very troublesome, boili in Europe and in the Far East. The United States had by its food products almost ruined the (ierman landed interest. " A plague on both your houses." Yet although there was no bias of affection to deflect the judgment of the scientific expert, he came to a mistaken conclusion every time. The naval expert glibly demonstrated with all the con- fidence of infallibility that the Americans had no chance with the Spaniards on the sea. Alike in ships, in guns, in discipline, and in sailors, the Yankees would be sorely put to it to hold their own against the Dons. As for the military men, nothing could ex- ceed their contempt for the United States. " With 40,000 men," it used to be said, "we could invade America." Ilie improvised army of Volunteers was a "rabble," and the proposal to rely upon such a scratch pack of uniformed civilians seemed little short of high treason to the generals who have devoted their lives to the elaboration of the German race into a cast-iron military machin3. It seemed presumption to question the conclusions of these oracles. They knew everything; they foresaw e/erything; they had decided that the non-military Republic would be sorely put to it to best the military monarchy, and as they said it, that settled it. Hence when the war actually broke out, nearly every German newspaper, excepting the Frankfurter Zeitung and Die Nation of Berlin, was bitterly, con- sistently and continuously anti-American. The atti- GERMANY 001 tilde of the Government was scrupulously correct. It was absolutely neutral. But the sympathies of the nation were as immistakably anti-American. This not only found expression in the press, it made itself disagreeably felt in the streets and in business. The America^i felt himself in a hostile atmosphere, and sometimes it was more than an atmosphere. This hostility was due to a mingled feeling of resent- ment, jealousy, envy, contempt, and the antagonism that is latent between states based on the opposing principles of liberty and authority, of democracy and imperialism. When the v/ar began and every prediction of the experts was falsified, the Germans felt that something must have suddenly gone wrong in the constitution of the universe. They had all backed the wrong horse, relying upon the selections of their own infallible prophets, and they felt like losers. It did not sweeten their tempers, but they soon began to mend their man- ners. In a dazed kind of fashion they endeavored to find their bearings, and to regain their equilibrium in their new and unaccustomed surroundings. Their first instinct, as that of the drowning man, was to catch at something, and the flotsam and jetsam of the Philippines naturally suggested itself. They hurried their warships to ^fanila with an eye to eventualities, but the peremptory "Hands off! " from Uncle Sam gave them pause. Then they suddenly recollected that they had never thought of such a thing. The conclusion of peace gave them time to pull themselves 222 Till-] ISITED STATEH OF FA'ROPE i.t ; I i! \ i! U! t" ;' i ^ :f i f f 1 41 1 ,1 ji li t i \ 1 1 ' ?v ; ^' i 1 together, to put on their thinking cap, and to try to size things up. And this, so far as can be gathered, is the conclu- sion they have come to. The German is a practical man who is determined to make the best of a bad job. So he is now discovering that the sudden revelation of the fighting capacity of the Yankee is, perhaps, not such a bad tiling after all — at least, for Germany. It may, for instance, lead to embroilment with England, at the thought of which the German chuckles. Ho has long warmed his hands at the fire that smoulders between Russia and England. If another flame were to spring \^\^ between England and the United States — well, he would be warmer still. Then, again, the startling advent of the American navy on the high seas as a first-class fighting force supplies the Kaiser with a new and irresistible argu- ment in favor of adding more ships to the German navy. It is an ill wind that blows nobody good, and the disaster that has overwhelmed the Spanish fleets may be utilized to increase the effective force of the German navy. But that is not all. The German practical politician, who always judges everything by his estimate of the way it will affect himself without reference to its influ- ence on his neighbors, eagerly profits by the stimulus given to colonialism by the appearance of the United States as a Colonial Power. lie smiles as he thinks how tie Americans will discover the fallacy of their fond illusions when they seriously begin to equip try to conclu- ^ractical l)ad job. liition of laps, not any. It England, Ics. He noulders line were ?d States American ng force ale argu- German ood, and isli fleets ce of the olitician, e of the its influ- stimulus e United tie thinks of their to equip Sih'iii) II ii,l,t. / . /;, ti'ii, !'I!IN( K IlKIIMM.olIi: (hall (lidr of tlif (iermati Kiiiiii;c ami rii'Miicr (if I'nissia /V. liiilii /, Ik ilia DI!. Vox .Mh,>l i;i, Virc-1'roiiliMil nf ihr ^l■ll^^iall Ci nil' il ami Minister nf l^'inain i' i ii Scldttirn Uilih i\ Jit /tin I'I{IN( K IlKMtY OK I'lnssiV BrotluTof tlic (iurinaii Kiii|ieror Kiliiill uinl Fry siK 1'. i,AS( i;i,i,Ks Miilisli Ainliasf^ador at JJitIIh s '^i i^h i'l I H I '! ?i I *l I ! GERMANY 298 navies, maintain armies, and govern distant millions of dark-skinned races. But that is not his affair. AVhat he has to do is first to silence the minority in Germany — that is, against armies and navies and colo- nies — by making the most of the sudden coming over of the American nation from a policy of mind-your- own-business and cultivate-your-own-garden-in-peaco, to a policy of military, naval, and colonial expansion. America's casting vote, they say, is now given on the side of Colonialism and Aggression. Secondly — and this is perhaps the more important — the blow dealt at Spain by the United States has put the Spanish Empire in liquidation. Germany, like a smart man of business, intends to be in at the sale of the bankrupt stock. She has no intention of quarrel- ling with the United States. On the contrary, she will be effusively friendly. But she intends to have the first choice in whatever is left of Spain's goods and chattels after the Americans have had their pick. There are many trimmings left over after your treaty of peace is signed. Germany must at any cost acquire coaling-stations all round the world. Spain has coal- ing-stations to sell. Germany does not intend to bo forestalled. She has long had an eye on the Caroline Islands. There are less probable contingencies than a deal by which Germany might at a stroke take over the whole wreck of the Spanish Empire in the Far East. No one can foresee what kaleidoscopic changes mav come about in the near future, when the Colonial possessions of Spain and also of Portugal seem likely i\ ft ^ " '^5 I ! 224 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE to come upon the market to be knocked down to the highest bidder. The present Emperor is unlike his father in most things, bnt he inherited from his predecessor a haunt- ing dread of the immense potentialities of the Ameri- can Commonwealth. This dread, which has hitherto been chiefly commercial, is now extending to the polit- ical sphere. The Kaiser has no love for the Monroe doctrine. If the United States cuts the Xicaragua Canal, the need for a German coaling-station in the AVest Indian islands will be imperious. Nor is that the only possibility of collision between " American- ism " and Germany. The German colonists are in- creasing in Southern Brazil. Only the other day one of them got into trouble for hoisting the German flag, and his cause has been warmly taken up by his coun- trymen at home. The Government looks askance at the enthusiasm which begets societies for the promo- tion of Germanism in Brazil, foreseeing complications. ]\[r. ]\rcKinley was equally opposed to intervention in Cuba, but he made the war notwithstanding. The coyness of Governments is apt suddenly to give way before the awakened passions of their subjects. If the German colonists in Brazil revolt and declare their independence, it will not be a far cry, in the opinion of eager spirits in Berlin, to the establishment of a German Protectorate over the German independent States of South America. And in that case the Mon- roe doctrine might fail of enforcement unless the American fleet Avere stronger than that of Germany. GERMANY 225 The chief and immediate rivahy is not in colonies but in commerce. In the struggle for the world's market Germany is badly handicapped by her military burdens and by the comparative narrowness of her borders. America she recognizes as her most formi- dable competitor, and the contest every day becomes more keen. The admirable speech made by Mr. White, the American Ambassador, at Leipsic on July 4th did much to bring the Germans to their bearings. But it was significant of much that at that banquet but for the direct intervention of the Ambassador him- self no German flag would have been displayed. The room was draped with Union Jacks and Stars and Stripes intertwined. But neither German nor Saxon flag was visible. At the last moment a Saxon flag was procured, so that the conventions were preserved. 16 m I i CHAPTEK lY ,) THE MINOR STATES OF EUROPE rrt i I I', ' i ^ 1 "When I was in Rome T had the pleasure of enjoying the hospitality of one of the most modern and least clerical of Europeans — none other than the famous JSTorwegian no > elist, poet and political agitator, Bjorn- stjerne Bjornson, who has taken up his winter quar- ters next door to the King. If only his Majesty would replace the last dozen feet of the monstrously high Avail which shuts out the Quirinal gardens from the views of his Norwegian neighbor by a trellis or a rail- ing, M. Bjornson would have no reason to wish to change quarters with King Plumbert. Eor he has a charming set of apartments, far above the roar of the traffic in the street below — apartments which open out upon a delightful little garden on the roof, where, under the blue sky of Rome, surrounded by sweet- scented flowers, the Northern poet can look out upon the world as from the eyrie of an eagle. The stout Republican does not find the being next-door neigh- bors to Royalty altogetlior to his taste. " "We share the music of the King's band," he said; " that is pleas- ant enough. Rut the roaring of his lion is less agree- able. And he is always roaring." The lion, it s'^ems. THE MINOR STATES OF EUROPE 227 was a gift from King Menelik of Abyssinia to the King of Italy. It is kept in the garden of the Quiri- nal, where it is as unhappy as the prisoner in the Vatican. Day and night the royal brute roars his unavailing protest to an unheeding world. But the lion, like his namesake in the Vatican, rages in vain behind his prison bars. I had met M. Bjornson for the first time at the studio of his friend and countryman, M. Ross. lie was in famous spirits, and full of the very latest idea that has fascinated this most versatile and quick-witted of men. M. Bjornstjerne Bjornson is one of the veterans — ho is half-way between sixty and seventy, and does not seem more than five and fiftv — in the campaign for peace. He has contended for arbitra- tion, for disarmament, for everything, in short, that makes for progress, even before the Tsar was born. To him, therefore, more than to most men, the Peace Rescript was v/elcome. lie was full of interest in all that I had to tell him about Russia and her ruler, and, like every one else with whom I have had the oppor- tunity of speaking on the subject, he rejoiced with exceeding great joy on hearing how things stood. As, indeed, he had good cause. For everything that the friend of peace could hope for is true, and true to an extent which neither M. Bjornson nor any one else dared to venture would come true in our time. " But, after all " — for even II. Bjornson has a " but " — " But, after all," he said, " I am not very I M 238 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE ri ■- sanguine about the Great Powers. They are one and all but beasts of prey." I vehemently objected, and, indeed, considering how the Peace Conference came to be the great hope of mankind, not without cause, against such a summary method of classification. But M. Bjornson paid no heed to my protest. " I am con- cerned," he went on, " about the smaller States, the little Powers. What is to come of them at the Con- ference ? " " What about the little Powers ? " I asked. " Are you not satisfied that they should have been in- vited to the Conference? Xever before were the minor States invited equally with their more powerful neighbors to such an international assembly." " That is all very well," he replied, " but it is not enough. I am anxious to see something more than that. I want to see the smaller States group themselves together, so as to act and speak with effect. Each by itself can do nothing. In a league, or federation, or neutrality, they might be a very potent influence in international affairs." " I entirely agree with you," I replied, " and in Bel- gium at the very beginning of my tour I repeatedly wrote and spoke urging upon Belgium the importance of taking the lead in the matter. It would be a great opportunity for the King of the Belgians, who has never heretofore had a wide enough field for the exer- cise of his statesmanship." " Do you think,'' said M. Bjornson, " that King Leopold is the best man to undertake the organization of the small States?" "Who else would you sug- THE MINOR STATES OF EUROPE 229 and and, jame ause, But con- i, the Con- Lsked. 3n in- e the srerful 'That ;h. I L want ^ether, ilf can rality, itional n Bel- atedly rtance great 10 has e exer- King ization u sug- gest?" I asked. "The Queen of Holland is too young. The King of Denmark is too old. The Presi- dent of the Swiss Federation is not known well enough. The King of Portugal has neither the en- ergy nor the ambition nor tne central position. And your King, what about him? " " Why do you think it must be a king? " he asked; " would not some statesman be even better? " " But where will you find your statesman?" I answered. Then M. Iloss broke in. " You have not far to seek ; you will find him in this very city. There is no man better than Baron de Bildt, the Minister of Sweden. He is a statesman of the first rank, a diplomatist, a scholar, and a man who has all the qualities that you need." M. Boss did not exaggerate the capacity of the statesman he named. Three years Baron de Bildt declined the Ministerial post offered him by the king, which is now held by Count Douglass, and although he is but the representative of a small State, no one stands higher in the opinion of those who know than Baron de Bildt. But postponing for the moment the consideration of the man to do the work, I asked M. Bjornson what was the work that he wanted him to do. " I want," said M. Bjornson, " to secure an understanding among the small States before the Con- ference meets, so that when the representatives of the Powers meet, they will find that they arc face to face, not with a disunited group of powerless little States, but mth a federation representing 27,000,000 of 230 THE UNITED HTATES OF EUROPE Europeans, who are determined to act together to se- cure their safety, and to obtain a guarantee of their neutrality." " "What States do you mean? " I asked. From his reply I have constructed the following table, with the aid of the " Almanach de Gotha": — ? , ! 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 Population, Belgium 6,000,000 Denmark 2,000,000 Holland 5,000,000 Portugal 4,700,000 Sweden 5,000,000 Norway 2,000,000 Switzerland 3,000,000 27,700,000 Area in iiil. car. Army on Peace Footing, ... 29,500 .. .. 50,000 ... 38,000 .. .. 11,000 ... 33,000 .. .. 29,000 ... 89,000 .. .. 26,000 ...450,000 .. .. 39,000 ...322,000 .. .. 20,000 ... 41,000 ., • • 1,002,500 175,000 It I HI J' r. \'^ il H M. Bjornson refused to regard the Southeastern States as eligible members for his League of Neutral- ity. He said they were full of their own ambitions, and some of them at least were by no means contented with their frontiers. But it may be worth while not- ing the statistics of these States, which have equally been invited to the Conference: — 1 Bulgaria 3,300,000 2 Servia 2,300,000 3 Montenegro 230,000 4 Greece 2,500,000 5 Rouman a 5,500,000 13,830,000 . 94,000 . 48,000 . 9,000 . 65,000 .131,000 .347,000 . 45,000 . 23,500 . 25,000 . 58,000 .151.500 THE MINOR 8TATES OF EUROPE 231 Altogether, the small States represent a population of 41,000,000, and an army on a peaci .ooting of 320,- 000 men, not reckoning the Swiss and Montenegrins, every man of whom is trained to arms. Clearly, the small States may claim to be regarded as constituting a conglomerate of population equal to that of any great Power. Their influence in the Euro- pean Concert, so far, at least, as the Northwestern States are concerned, would be solely for peace. They would constitute a most valuable element in the bal- ance of power. But will they be wise enough to rec- ognize their common interests and bestir themselves to make common cause in the Areopagus of the Na- tions? Time w^ill show. But it Avill not be M. Bjorn- son^s fault if they do not bestir themselves, and that without delay. I PART IV ! HUSSJA OF THE RESCRIPT CHAPTER I AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898 When I was in Berlin, the ]vaiser and his counsel- lors were making holiday preparatory to the Imperial tour to the Holy Land. The Kaiser was stag-shooting in the deer-forests in the extreme east of his dominions. One of the great events chronicled by the Berlin news- papers was the shooting of a stag with a greater num- ber of points on hi", antlers than had ever been secured as a trophy by any huntsman in Germany for more than two hundred vears. We w^ere reminded of this Imperial sport by the decoration at the railway sta- tions through which we passed immediately before crossing the Russian frontier. Russia has changed but little in ten years. One change there was, and that not a change for the better, so far as the traveller is concerned. The familiar German names of the stations had undergone an un- familiar metamorphosis. Wirballen, the frontier sta- tion, where the incoming traveller has his first experi- 284 THE UNITED STATE l^ OF EUROPE I .■ • . 1 ■ i M r? M^ ence of the indispensablcness of the passport, is now Wirballavo, and so on all along the line. The old familiar names, some of which are branded deep on the memory of Europe in connection with the ever memorable retreat from Moscow, have now been dis- guised past all semblance of their former selves in the rage for Russofying everything which has been the fashion for some years past in Musco\y. In St. Petersburg itself little or nothing seemed to have changed. There were the old landmarks, the familiar churches and cathedrals; even the old pave- ment was much as I had seen it ten years before. The only change was the improved lighting of the Nevski Prospect, and the work which is going on all over the toivn in the laying down of electric mains for the fur- ther electric lighting of the city. To any electrical engineer accustomed to the heavy work needed for laying an electric cable through the streets of an Eng- lish or American city, the rough-and-ready, happy-go- lucky fashion in which the electric cable was laid down in the streets of St. Petersburg would seem little short of suicidal. They simply dug a long trench in the soil beneath the uneven cobble-stone surface of the roadway, uncoiled the electric cable from a huge roll, laid it in the trench, and then tumbling the loose earth on the top, restored the cobble-stones as they were be- fore, when the main was supposed to be laid. There was a good deal of talk in town of a company for sup- plying electricity by utilizing the falls of Imatra in Finland. By this means it was confidently expected I AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898 a85 that in a year or two St. Petersburg would be the best lighted city on the Continent, and that the slow-mov- ing trams and familiar droskies would be superseded by the electric trolley and motor-cars. The costless drainage of the Finnish wilderness would, it was cal- culated, enable the Kussians to supply light and force to the city of Peter the Great at a cheaper rate than is possible elsewhere in the Old World. There was one other change noticeable in the droskies. They are all now fitted with hoods similar to those that fold backwards in a child's perambulator. The hood does not cover the drosky, but it is very convenient for the traveller. While we were in St. Petersburg in Octo- ber, we had the first foreshadowings of the coming winter in the shape of a fall of snow which, melting almost as soon as it fell, did not add to the amenities of existence. The Hotel d'Europe was overrun with English and Americans, chiefly Americans, who had returned from Siberia, where they had been travelling hither and thither in search of profitable concessions. They w^ere all full of praises of the country, especially on account of its immense agricultural capacities, and some brought fal)ulous stories as to the richness of the mineral deposits. Life among the gold-miners of Siberia seems to be very much like life among the Argonauts of California in 1849, with the disagreeable addition of the presence of a great number of convicts, murderers, and others, who -work fairly well in sum- mer time at the mines, but who in winter relapse into r ' I 886 THE UNITED STATEH OF EUROPE I I, I 1 ■ . ^^ \i homicidal habits and murder for gain to an extent which casts the worst records of the Wild West into the shade. The xVmerican prospectors did not, how- ever, report that they had come upon many plums. The best locations had been already snapped up, chiefly by Frenchmen, who were paying prices which in the opinion of the prudent American and British speculator, were far in excess of anything justified by reasonable prudence. On the other hand, the Sibe- rian holders of good things were all suffering more or less from " swelled head," and were refusing to part, except at fabulous prices. They all praised the Gov- ernment for the generous way in which it encouraged business enterprise, but expressed great regret that the Siberian railway could not be pushed forward more rapidly and worked more expeditiously, for it was nothing short of a sin to see so many hundreds of tons of good grain rotting by the wayside for want of roll- ing stock to carry it away. The greatest change of all that I noticed in St. Petersburg was that which had taken place at the Brit- ish Embassv. When I was last in liussia Sir Robert Morier was the representative of Her IMajesty at the Russian Court. The late Lord Derby once told me that he considered Sir Robert Morier knew more about European politics than all the rest of the Diplomatic Corps put together. He was a man who had thrown himself with all the energy of a very passionate nature into the study of Russia and tlio Russians. He was a persona grata with the Emperor and with his leading j ' AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898 237 St. iding Ministers. Despite his somewhat brusque and savage manner when lie was roused, the Russians liked him and trusted him, and M. de Giers told me that there would never be any difiiculties between Russia and England so long as Sir Robert Morier renuJned at St. Petersburg. But alas! the place that knew Sir Robert Morier now knows him no more. Since he reigned as a kind of British Tsar in the Embassy on the I^eva, the familiar house near the Troitsky Bridge has seen three fresh occupants — Sir B. Lascelles, Sir Nicholas O'Conor, Sir C^harles Scott. The last named, who is the present occupant of what is perhaps the most re- sponsible post in the British diplomatic service, is a newcomer, suddenly pitchforked from Copenhagen to St. Petersburg. His appointment excited general surprise, and probably in no place more keenly than in the breast of Sir Charles Scott himself. The only explanation that was given was that Sir Charles Scott had been for some years a colleague of Count Mura- vieff at the Danish Court, and it was supposed he would be able to understand the idiosyncrasies of the Foreign Minister better than anyone who was a complete stranger. Count ^luravieff's appointment, which surprised Europe, had as its sequel the appoint- ment of Sir Charles Scott, which in a smaller way was equally surprising. Sir Charles is a North of Ireland man, almost as strong an anti-Home Ruler as Sir Robert Morier, and equally familiar with the Ger- man language. He had served with Sir Edward ]\ralet at Berlin, and twenty-two years ago had been It II 388 THE UNITED (STATES OF EUROPE . I I I 1:1 i i :?! i 11^ attached at the Embassy, under Lord Augustus Lof tus, in St. Petersburg. He is a well-meaning man with the best intentions; but it will need a long course of Russian winters before the frost matures his intellect so as to give it the keen edge and temper of his pre- decessor, Sir Robert Morier. The disadvantage of holding an appointment at a court like Copenhagen is that it is a kind of diplomatic hibernation, during which mental alertness, continually stimulated in the great capitals, is apt to lose its spring. Count Muravieff, the titular head of the Foreign Office, whose appointment was generally attributed to the influence of the Empress-Dowager — an imputation which that august lady is said to repudiate as a cal- umny — left Russia immediately before my arrival. We had met ten years before at the Russian Embassy in Berlin, when no one anticipated he was destined to so sudden and remarkable a promotion. We met again in the hotel at Sebastapol as I was leaving Rus- sia. He had just returned from his European tour, and was repairing to Livadia. When I was at Berlin, an interview with a distinguished Russian diplomatist appeared in the Tagehlatt. I was confidentially as- sured that the diplomatist in question was none other than Count Muravieif, to whose views I naturally turned with considerable interest. According to this authority, the Count had declared that England was the enemy of the pacific aspirations of the Tsar. Eng- land's motto had ever been to divide and conquer. Rome in her worst days of Imperial ambition was a ^i' AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898 239 was |Eng- Ivas a sucking child compared to John BulL So terrible, indeed, did this ogre appear in the interview, that it was not surprising to learn that nothing could save civilization from his fangs but a European coalition which would draw the teeth and clip the nails of this continent-devouring monster. When I reached St, Petersburg I naturally inquired as to the authenticity of this extraordinary interview. It was, of course, emphatically disclaimed. Some said that the inter- viewer had written the interview up to s'.iu the Ger- man market. Others denied that there had been any interview at all; but if so, the Tagehlatt must have been hoaxed, and Count Muravieff had been once more made the victim of the astonishing series of mis- conceptions which cause him to be so cruelly misunder- stood both in Russia and abroad. I had heard a good deal before I came to Russia of a ferocious anti-English feeling which found expres- sion in the St. Petersburg press, and I therefore made it my business to take the earliest possible opportunity of making the personal acquaintance of the chief Anglophobe on the Russian press. I found it was a case illustrating the old saying, " There is no hate like love to hatred turned." The journalist in question had at one time been a great Anglophil, and was still an enthusiastic student of our literature. But English foreign policy had been too much for him; and from loving us he had swept round to detesting us with a whole heart fervently. He began our interview by declaring with great emphasis that the Russians were t' 240 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE , i p. ^^ 1 jij 1 '^, ^ 1 t ' r < 1' i t far too Christian, far too good-liearted, too amiable and too forgiving, and that therefore it was his duty to preach always hatred, hatred, hatred of the English! This was a promising beginning; but when we came to close quarters, and I ascertained what it was that he detested so heartily, I found that the sins he hated, I hated also, and had probably denounced much more vehemently in England than he had ever done in Russia. In any case, he was much better informed and much more sane in his appreciation of the Conti- nental position than are most Russophobist writers of the English press against w^hom he may be placed, as an imfortunate specimen of a journalist whose pen does not make for friendship and good understanding between the two nations. There is very nmch of a muchness bet^\ een the complaints brought by the anti- English writers in St. Petersburg and the stock accu- sations of our anti-Russian writers in London. In fact, the same articles might often do service in both countries, English being substituted for Russian and Russian for English, according as they were published in London or St. Petersburg. Hatred, malice and uncharitableness find plenty of material on which to exercise their malevolent activity in the military and diplomatic achievements of both Empires. In discussing the causes which led some Russians to regard England with antipathy, there were many par- ticulars alleged, Mr. Chamberlain's " long spoon " speech being mentioned, but it did not occupy as conspicuous a place as might have been expected. AT ST. PETERSBURG IX 1S98 241 30th and islied and cli to and oon ?) as ?cted. Speeches, with Russians, always count less than acts. The appointment of Lord Ciirzon to the Yiceroyalty of India was regarded as a far more significant illustra- tion of English hostility to Russia than all the speeches of all the Russophobists put together. Lord Curzon stoutly repudiated the imputation of being an enemy of Russia's on the eve of his departure for India, and expressed himself in terms of unimpeachable correcti- tude as to his desire to be on the best terms with his great Xorthern neighbor. The memory of our breach of faith in relation to Chitral sticks in the Russiar memory; but even about this they do not say anything stronger than was said by those who expressed the unanimous opinion of the Rosebery Cabinet. About AYei-LIai-AVei very little was said, it being regarded as only another instance of the inveterate practice of England always to look about for an opportunity to do something disagreeable to Russia. A very excellent lady in St. Petersburg, who was a great friend of Prince Lobanoff's, was deploring the great losses which Russia had sustained in the e:' inc- tion of that great intellect. " Yes," I said, " great intellect, no doubt, but he was very hostile to Eng- land." " And how can any Russian help being hostile to England," she exclaimed, " when England is always playing us such nasty tricks? " It was a genuine out- burst of real feeling, and it probably expresses more succinctly than any more labored speech the feeling of Russians concerning our attitude towards them. An Englishman often does not seem to be happy unless 16 i 243 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE hfi ' I he can do an ill turn to a Russian. Sir Howard Vin- cent, who certainly cannot be regarded as belonging to the household of faith, who has, indeed, had his habitation for the most part among the dragons of Russophobia, was profoundly impressed, when visiting Russia last year, Avith the universal conviction of the Russians that wherever they went and whatever they did, they would always find " the Englishwoman " — the Anglichanka, the Queen — popping up in order to thwart and annoy them. The chief mischief, however, in this as in other things is done not by the diplomatists, not even by the Admirals, so much as by the press. If my excel- lent confreres were forbidden to write a single mali- cious, suspicious or uncharitable article upon the action of Russia until they could read, even with the aid of the dictionary, a single sentence of the Russian language, there would be very little danger of a dis- turbance of the good relations between Russia and England. Since my last visit, ten years ago, death has made considerable havoc in the ranks of Russian statesmen. Very few of those who held portfolios in 1888 were still in office in 1898. There was, however, an excep- tion. M. Pobedonostseff, who was Procurator of the Holy Synod during the reign of Alexander III., is still holding the same post under Nicholas II. The position of M. Pobedonostseif is unique. Xo Minister has held office so long, and no other Minister has pre- sided over the education of two Emperors. He is also m AT -ST. PETERS BIRO IN 189S 243 dis- and lade ^men. were Ixcep- If the [I., is The lister pre- Is also the only Russian Minister who h^.d written books deal- ing with matters of general interest lying outside his immediate sphere. Xo Russian Minister is so dis- tinctively Russian, and at the same time so keenly in- terested in the doings of the world outside the Russian frontier. ]\[. Pobedonostseff keeps himself constantly informed as to the literary, political, and philosophical movement in the West of Europe. He is a great stu- dent of English literature; his library table is always strewn with the latest magazines and newest books that are issued from London, and no one could be at the same time more careful to keep himself au courant with Western thought than the man who, of all others, may be regarded as the jealous guardian of Russian orthodoxy against any Western influences. In my " Truth about Russia '-' I devoted well-nigh sixty pages to a sustained invective against ]M. Pobedonostseff and the whole system of ecclesiastic intolerance of which he is the official exponent. In the course of several pages I expounded with considerable vehemence the only conception of the system of the Procurator of the Holy Synod which was possible to an English IS'oncon- formist reared in the straitcst traditions of the sect of which Oliver Cromwell is the patron saint. I had called M. Pobedonostseff, Torquemada, Diocletian, and all other kinds of amiable epithets, and, therefore, I should have had no reason to complain if he had placed every obstacle in the way of my return to Russia, or the prosecution of my mission there. So far from this being the case, I must do M. Pobedonost- 244 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE I ^ I ^ i ^11 ■ ! 1 t seff the justice of admitting that, instead of resenting my denunciation of him, he heaped coals of fire upon my Head by treating me with exceptional kindness' and consid'^ration. lie invited me to his house at Tsarskoe Selo, anc I had the privilege of two long conversations with him apon all manner of subjects, from the latest fashion in English novels to the persecution of the Stundists. It was an intellectual treat to sit at the feet of the Ilussian Gamaliel, even although you were utterly unable from temperament, education, or en- vironment to accept hip eloquent vindication of the necessity for secluding the Russian peasant from the perils of a heretical propaganda. In his book, " The Reflections of a Russian Statesman/' M. Pobedonost- seff surveyed the Eastern World in its later develop- ments of democratic freedom, and proclaimed aloud that he found no good in it. From head to foot, the AV^estern system of modern democracy was full of wounds and bruises and putrefying sores; there was no health in it. One hundred years after the out- break of the French Revolution, the West is more dis- posed to agree with its Russian mentor than at any former period. Two eminent statesmen of England and France were discussing the other day the sombre picture which ]M. Pobedonostseff gives in his book of the decadence of Western democracy. They both agreed that black as was the picture which the Russian Jere- miah had painted, each of them could have given him many points which would have enabled him to make i i AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898 245 it much blacker. Democracy seen from the inside seemed to them even more seamy than it appeared to M. Pobedonostseff from the point of view of the out- sider. No one can look upon the condition of things either in France, Austria, or Italy without feeling that the devil's advocate has got a very strong brief when he undertakes to plead against what was at one time the almost universally accepted optimism of the Liberal. M. Pobedonostseff represents in Russia the same kind of sentiment which prevails in most country vicarages and in rural districts where the parson and the squire agree in regarding the intrusion of the dis- senter as a letting loose of one of the plagues of Egypt. There is much more excuse for M. Pobedonostseff than there is for the country parson, but their ideas are identical. Each uses the power which he has to the best of his ability to preserve the unity of the faith among the flock intrusted to his care. Both regard the masses of the people as children from whom as faithful guardians they must keep the poisonous influ- ences of schism and heresy. Clerical intolerance in this country has had its claws clipped and its teeth drawn. In Eussia that process is still to come, but it will not come as long as M. Pobedonostseff is to the fore. He is sti 1 hale and vigorous, and, despite his seventy years, he is much more hearty than many English statesmen of sixty. In ten years he did not reem to have aged in the least. He was quite as free from the illusions of youth ten years ago as I found M 246 THE UyiTED STATES OF EUROPE n I H Iji him last year. It is, perhaps, impossible to expect a conscl'vati^ e statesman of seventy to share the gen- erous enthusiasm of youth, but he is by no means of a hide-bound or unsympathetic disposition. He was particularly pleased with a charming book on Burma, the author of which had drawn a much idealized picture of Buddhism. I also have to acknowledge that ^I. Pobcdonostseff, by his voluntary and power- ful initiative, smoothed all difficulties in the way of my access to the Emperor. AVhen I left Russia in 1888, nothing seemed to me more absolutely impos- sible than that I should return ten years later and be indebted to the Tlussian Torquemada for my introduc- tion to the young Emperor. In St. Petersburg almost everywhere I found a very strong feeling against the Armenians. It is a fixed idea among Russians that England had created the Armenian difficulty in order to embarrass Russia. When asked for the grounds of this extraordinary theory, there was no hesitation in supplying the data upon which this superstructure had been reared. It must be admitted that they were much more substan- tial than most of the foundations on which national jealousy builds a superstructure of falsehood. The Russians began by pointing out that the Armenian difficulty owes its existence to the intervention of Eng- land at the Berlin Conference. If Lord Beaconsfield and Lord Salisbury had left the Treaty of San Stef ano alone, Russia would have had a treaty right and an assured position for protecting the Armenians 1 I AT ST. PETERHBIRO IX 1898 247 ta It ans against the Turks. Instead of permitting Russia to discharge the responsibilities she had undertaken, England interfered, cancelled the Russian guarantee, and superseded it by an ineifective international undertaking on the plea that everything relating to Turkey was a European concern, and that it was con- trary to the Treaty of Paris to make single-handed bargains with the Sultan as to the reform of any part of his empire. At the same moment that England was mutilating the Treaty of San Stefano on this pre- text, she was concluding secretly a convention with Turkey by which she placed herself in an exceptional position by a separate agreement with the Ottoman Empire in virtue of which she was allowed to occupy Cyprus. From that time, they maintain, England has done nothing but foment discontent in Armenia, knowing that it would make trouble for Russia. Eng- land, they say, operated through the American mis- sionaries who educated the Armenians in their schools, filled them with political aspirations, and provoked the insurrectionary movement which brought about the atrocities. If you object that this was done by Americans and not by British, they reply that the Americans and English work together in Asia Minor like right and left hands. The American missionary stirs up the trouble and the British Consul protects him. But for these two agencies the Armenians would never have provoked the reprisals which made the world shudder. By thus forcing the Armenian ques- tion to the front, England placed Russia in a disagree- n !- I I -,/ 248 THE UMTED STATES OF EXJROVE h ! i. I hill: able dilemma. The Armenians wished to form an Armenian principality like Bulgaria, with the avowed object of working for the unification of Armenia, even at the cost of the dismemberment of the Russian Em- pire. In the Caucasus the Russian administration is practically in the hands of the Armenians. The Armenian, who is extremely cbver, not very scrupu- lous, and who liai." considerable political faculty, has monopolized the administration. At present he is prosperous and fairly content, but he cherishes aspira- tions after the revival of a great Armenian kingdom somewhat similar to those which the Poles cherish for the revival of the kingdom of Poland. To create an independent Armenia in Asia ]\Iinor would be to set up a standard round which to rally all the Armenian subjects of Russia. The prospect of establishing this centre of Armenian nationality was certainly not an inducement calculated to encourage Russian states- men to face the risk of intervention in Turkey. The creation of an Armenian nat^'onality also was a difficult question, because the Armenians are so mixed up with the Kurds, that if the Turkish authority were elimi- nated from Armenia, and no foreign force introduced, the result would be, not an independent and self-gov- erning free Armenia, but a province in which the Armenians would be harried to the bone by the domi- nant Kurd, who for centuries has regarded the Ar- menian very much as wolves regard sheep. If any- thing useful were to be done in Armenia for liberty and the protection of life and property of the luckless AT .sr. PETERSIlVliO IS 1898 249 > u\rmenlaiis, it could only be done by the introduction of an adequate military force, and Russia was the only Power from which such a force could come. But the Russians, who remember what the Austrians had to face in Bosnia, vehemently resisted the suggestion that they should undertake the pacificatiori of Armenia. The mere fact that it was favored in England led them to suspect that it was a trap, and they regarded the suggestion that they should pacify Armenia as an unmasking of the English design to weaken ind em- barrass Russia by encouraging her in a profitless and costly enterprise which would waste her resources and divert her energies. Armed intervention in Armenia involved the risk of war. Russia had enough war in 1877 to last her for the rest of this century. To jus- tify their reluctance to embark upon the Armenian Crusade, they fell back upon all manner of pretexts. The Armenians, for instance, were not Greek Ortho- dox, neither were they Slavs. Russia formerly used to defend the cause of Christians of the East regard- less of nationality or of race. But she had grown wiser with painful experience; she was no longer to be the champion of the Christian East. France and Germany could, if they chose, wrangle for the right of the protectorate of the Roman Catholics, but Russia would stick to the Orthodox, and not only to the Ortho- dox, but to the Slavonic Orthodox. As for the Arme- nians, they were very well capable of taking care of themselves. The Russians know the Armenians, and do not like them. There is a saying which the Bus- yi 1 l: ..V I, ,1 250 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE w sians are never tired of repeating, that it takes two Greeks to swindle a Jew, two Jews to cheat the devil, but it takes two devils to cheat an Armenian; from which it would seem that the intellectual capacity of the Armenian in matters of cheating or being cheated is very highly appraised by those who have most to do with them. Whatever the cause, or whatever the pre- text, there is no question about the fact that the Arme- nians of all races under the sun seem to be least in favor at St. Petersburg. ^N'evertheless, many Rus- sians felt very keenly and expressed very frankly the shame and indignation with which they regarded Prince Lobanoff 's policy in dealing with the Armenian question. The massacres in Constantinople brought this home very forcibly to the Russian conscience, and no one would be better pleased than the best Russians if the happy termination of the Cretan question re- sulted in the adoption of a more vigorous policy in dealing with Turkish misrule in Asia Minor. My stay in Russia was much too brief for me to at- tempt any study of the currents beneath the surface, especially those among the young men in the univer- sities. At the same ^ ine, going in and out in St. • Petersburg society, it was impossible to turn a deaf oar to what you heard on every side — namely, that the students in St. Petersburg universities are all more or less in sympathy with the Socialism of Karl Marx in one or other of its forms. Of Nihilism you heard little or nothing. There were some who shook their heads gravely when (questioned on the subject; and AT ST. PETERSBVRO 7.V 1898 U51 the opinion was frequently expressed, especially among Amerieans, that the growth of great industrial communities in Southern Russia and in the neighbor- hood of the capital boded anything but good for the future tranquillity of the Empire. For the present howeyer, the chief social danger was not in the growth of revolutionarj' discontent so much as in the recur- rence of periods of great distress, which occasionally as at present in certain districts in the Southeast Iroymces, may almost attain the dimensions of a famine. .{ CHAPTER II THE PEACE RESCRIPT Russia, although a country of immense resources, which have as yet been very imperfectly developed, is, nevertheless, a country of poor men and poor women. There are a few individuals of very great wealth, there are many foreign companies developing the mineral and other resources of the country, and earning for their fortunate shareholders dividends that sometimes attain the noble dimensions of thirty-five and forty per cent.; but the great mass of the 129,- 000,000 of population over whom the Tsar reigns as a kind of terrestrial Providence are very poor, and are only able to provide their daily bread from year's end to year's end by a life of hard industry, which, were it not for the combined influences of the weather and the Church, would be unremitting. The population, though poor, is frugal and prolific. It is increasing at the rate of two millions per annum. In 1910 the Russian people will have reached 150,000,000; be- tween 1930 and 1940, 200,000,000; and at the end of the twentieth century there will be in all probability 300,000,r 00 Russians. The difference in density be- tween the populations of Western Europe and of Rus- sources ^eloped, id poor y great eloping ry, and ids that rty-five e 129,- ;igns as and are ir's end 1, were ler and ilation, reasing 10 the 0; be- le end ability ity be- f Rus- Jl ^ Ar wW ^^^ ^ ^k -T ^ T ^n ^ v^ ^ rf ^W-J 1 r-^0 BJJj 4' 4. Ei^H r/A ^^^ M ^i^B^ i ^51 4 jfranceJ^ j^^v^USTRIAHUNCARV^ f-^ {>^ X B^ y I SPAIN ^ M l^^^^^c ^ i ■ f fl ^^^B^neration such high ideals of youth are des- tined to be cruoUy cut down by the sharp frost of experience. Others rejoice with trembling, hardly daring to make head against the flood of derision and suspicion which the press has let loose against the scheme. But all alike, whether thov like it or whether they hate it, agree that the Emperor is thoroughly in TWO LETTEim FROM. 8T. FETElltSBURG 283 in earnest about the matter, and that there is on this sub- ject no question that he is master in his own house. Count Muravieff will do his Imperial master's bidding. His ambition, his energy, and his detachedness of mind may make hiui a more effective instrument than one who was more heartily in accord with the order of ideas which possess the mind of the Tsar. Such, at least, is the hope for Count Muravieff. But with whatever instruments he can find ready to his hand, the Tsar has gone to work to put the thing through. AVe are therefore face to face with the opportunity of the century, and woe be unto us if we do not a\ ail ourselves of it to the uttermost of our ability ! Xever since Mr. Gladstone published his famous Bulgarian pamphlet has so clear a clarion note rung upon the ear of the world. And not even in 18TG was there any issue presented to the conscience of mankind so wide in its scope, so vast in its results, as the impeach- ment of the armaments of the world by the Russian Tsar. From his watch-tower in Livadia Nicholas II. looks out over the armed camp of the world, through the tents of which he has sounded his Evangel of Peace. AVhat will the answer be? It is a moment of profound suspense, for on that answ^er hangs the future of the world. As to the time and the place of the Conference, nothing has yet been decided. These details are left over to be discussed when all the replies come in. Russia has no wish to impose her will upon the other Powers. That which meets best the convenience of 1- m 1 284 THE UNITED HTATES OF EUROPE I' the States represented she will accept. These ques- tions of detail will be arranged solely from one point of view, viz., how can they best secure the success of the object which the Emperor has rt heart? This one thing he will seek, considering p:> minor question of importance except so far as it contributes to the reali- zation of hi^ '^reat ideal. Count Lamsdorff, who, in Count ^ r; M/ieff's absence, is now directing the Kus- sian Foit Ji'ji .ffice, reminds me in many respects of his predecessor Al.. v^e Giers, whom I met ten years ago in the same office. That is to say, he is a man who impresses you with the honesty of his convictions and the sincerity of his words — a man sincerely desirous of peace, and thoroughly imbued with the sentiments of his Imperial master. The question of the extra naval programme to which Russia stands committed is frankly discussed. It was probably the immense object-lesson which that pro- gramme afforded, together with the corresponding programmes which it provoked in England, that con- vinced the Tsar that the moment had come for declar- ing war against war. I have, of course, no official authority to make any formal notification on this point, but it is evervwhere assumed as a matter too obvious for remark that if the Conference meets and agrees upon a stay of armaments, Russia will be the first to stop the execution of her pre^dous programme, so far as relates to all ships not already in course of construc- tion. I need hardly emphasize the significance of such an act on Russia's part. It would be the outward TWO LETTERS FROM »ST. PETERSBURG 285 and visible sign of the inward grace which is animating the ruler of Russia. The programme of the Conference is not drawn up. There is no desire on the part of the Tsar to thrust any cut-and-dry proposal down the throats of the other Powers. There is, indeed, a manifest shrinking from anything that might look like a desire to dictate or to presume in any way to influence the free deliberations of the representatives of the nations. But one thing is certain. No political or terri^ :*ial question in dis- pute between the nations will be m oted at the Con- ference. It will no more deal with i^'ashoda than with the Philippines, and it is as absolutely debarred from touching the future of Alsp""e and Lorraine as it is from raising the question of .ue independence of Ire- land or Poland. Keither will there be any proposal for the disarmament of any national force at present in existence. What is sought is to make a beginning, a safe beginning, by arriving at a solid agreement against any further increase of armaments, which, if it lasted for only five years, would serve as the founda- tion for indefinite progress in the direction of a pro- portionate and simultaneous reduction of the burden of armaments. The Tsar has taken the initiative; but that does not mean that he intends to ask the Conference to register any preconceived plan or scheme that may commend itself to his judgment. "What he wishes is that an honest endeavor should be made by all the Powers to ascertain whether it is possible to arrive at any com- '! % 286 TJIE LMTED UTATEH OF EUROPE mon ground of agreement for checking the continu- ance and indefinite expansion of the ruinous game of beggar-my-neighbor. If there is any definite idea at the back of tlie Russian mind, it is that the status quo as it exists at this moment might with advantage be accepted as the normal maximum, and that all the nations might agree to cry halt at their present rate of naval and military expenditure. How this most desirable end should be secured, ndiether the status quo should be defined in terms of the contingents under arms or the ships on the Xavy List, or whether it should be expressed in the figures of the expendi- ture on the Services, are matters upon Vvdiich the Con- ference must be left quite free to decide. Where there is a will there is a way, and if the Tsar's desire is shared by the other nations, there is no question but that some definite resolution will emerge from the Con- ference which will operate as a very effective check upon the growth of the exactions of militarism. The prejudice that exists in many quarters against any humanitarian movement which is initiated in Russia is comprehensible, but it is unjust, and in the light of history it is absurd. To support Russia's initi- ative in such a matter does not in the least commit any one to approval of every detail of Russian internal or external policy. What Englishmen are apt to forget is that it was Russia to whose initiative the w^orld owed the two international Conferences which have done anything in our ^"ime to abate the horrors of war. The Conference which established the Red Cross move- I-' TWO LETTERS FROM 1ST. PETERSBURG 287 mcnt was proposed by Russia, and so was the Confer- ence wliicli forbade the use of explosive rifle bullets in warfare. The llussian Tsar, despot though he may have been, was a better friend to human liberty when he supported the cause of emancipation in America at a time when free England siwke with uncertain voice and her upper classes openly supported the slave power. ]*^or should it be forgotten that it was the grandfather of the present Tsar who unsheathed the sword that liberated Bulgaria, while England sent her ironclads to prop up the tottering throne of the Turk- ish Assassin. Iii issuing this Peace Circular the Tsar is faithful to the best traditions of his fathers. Let us hope that this time at last he may find only a generous emulation and rivalry in good works on the part of the English people. The chances of the suc- cess of the Conference depend more upon the nature of the response in Britain than on any other considera- tion whatever. A vigorous national manifestation of Britain's determination to unite heartily with the Tsar in the war against war might mark the dawn of a new epoch in human history. If to the chivalrous and eloquent appeal of the young Autocrat of the East the free peoples of the "West make only a halting and indifferent response, an opportunity will be lost the like of which we may never see again. But if, on the contrary, from the heart and conscience of great democracy, there should be heard a response over- whelming and universal, an alliance would be formed between the two greatest forces of our time — au alii- fca H 888 THE I'MTED i^TATEi^ OF EiUorE ancc l)ase(l on the fraternity of the peopk's and dedi- cated to a Holy War against the greatest evil of our time. The second letter was as follows: — "When I caine to Russia I wps told that this was the worst time in the year for finding anybody. I have, however, already seen almost everybody — except the Tsar — who counts for anything in Russia. Count Muravicff, it is true, I have not seen, lie is away in Western Europe. General Kouropatkin is also ab- sent. But, with the exception of these two, I think I can fairly say that I have seen everybody whose opin- ion counts for anvthinnj in the direction of Russia's policy. I have seen, for instance, Count Lamsdorff, of the Foreign Office, now, in the temporary absence of his chief, the apparent as well as the real mainspring of the office to which he has devoted for years the trained energies of his whole life. I have met on three occasions M. Witte, the Minister of Finance, the strongest, the most original, and the most succesoful of the Chancellors who have ever presided over the Rus- sian Exchequer. I have twice been received in the most friendly and hospitable fashion by ]\I. Pobedo- nostseff, the famous Procurator of the Holy Synod, whose power is recognized the more by those who like it the least. Prince Khilkoff, the Minister of Ways and Communications, who is now pushing on the con- struction of the great Siberian Railway with some- thing of American energy, was not less kind and cour- teous or ready to reply to my inquiries. I also had an kU id (ledi- . of our was the I have, ;ept the Count away in also alj- think I ise opin- Russia's msdorff, absence ^nspring ears the met on nee, the ?S3f ul of he Rus- 1 in the Pobedo- Synod, vho like f AVavs the con- h some- iid cour- ) had an -Nf. si;i!'a ^ # ^ J ^v/^ ^JS^l^/l m^^ 1M!IN( !■; K(»ri!(»l'ArKIN MiniHtcr of War I'ltINf K KMII.KOFP Minister of Itailwav LEADIXi; HT'SSIAX STATHSMEX lf> TWO LETTERS FROM ST. PETERSlillH} 280 interesting conversation with M. de Martens, the fa- mous jurist wlio is to preside over the Yenezuehi arbi- tration, and wlio, from his frequent arbitrations, has come to be regarded as a kind of Deputy Lord Chief Justice of Christendom. I repeatedly saw M. Basili, the chief of the Asiatic Department of the Foreign Office, to wliose charge the oversight of the Peace Conference is entrusted, and had long and interesting discussions both with him and his assistants. I spent a long afternoon in company with ]\r. Jean de Block, the Warsaw banker, (icneral ]\Iossouloff, Director of the Department of the Foreign Cultes, was another official wliom I was glad to meet. Kot less interesting than these representatives of official Russia were the unofficial Russians, with whom I spent no little time in St. Petersburg. Chief among these were Prince I'khtomsky, of the St. Petersburg Viecleniosti, a man reputed to be a veritable Anglo- phobe, but whom I found to be one with whose opin- ions I was in almost absolute accord. I had also a couple of long interviews with M. Rothstein, the Director of the Russo-Chinese Bank, the hcte noire of Fnglish officialdom, but a man with whose views, especially on Chinese affairs, English men of business would find it extremely difficult not to sympathize. Besides these, I saw, of course, both the Ambassadors of the English-speaking nations, and any number of unofficial representatives both of Britain and the United States. Of press men and ]>rofessors I saw not a few. Hence, when T left St. Petersburg T did 19 ;2!K) THE UXITJW STATEti OF EUROPE SO with the happy consciousness that I had missed no- body who was worth seeing, and that I had got down to the bedrock of the question which I had come to Russia to investigate. For be it noted that my visits to the Ministers and others named above were by no means mere calls of courtesy. I came on a mission of inquiry, and I interviewed every one " down to the ground." It is no small test of the urbanity and cour- tesy and hospitality of the Russians that they bore with my inquiries so patiently and entertained me with a cordiality and generosity that could hardly have been exceeded if I had been an accredited envoy from a friendly and allied state. The net result of the fortnight I spent in St. Peters- 1)urg is to confirm in every way the convictions whicli I expressed in my last letter. "Whatever else may be in doubt, one thing is no longer in doubt — namely, that Russia is now^ definitely, publicly, and solemnly committed to a policy of peace. The Tsar has gone into this Conference affair with hearty goodwill. ITe means business. And not onlv does he mean business, but his ]\rinisters mean business also. I cannot speak for Count ]\ruravieff. ITe has already spoken for him- self, rnd everybody says that he can be relied upon to do the will of the Tsar. But all the other Ministers are of one mind on the subject. Some, it is tiue, being old and having long since parted with the enthu- siasm of their youth, are dubious as to whether any other nation will follow tlie lead so chivalrously taken by Nicholas TT. All of them, whether old or young. TWO LETTER >S EROM HT. PETERSBURG 291 agree in asserting that the young Eniporoi* has taken a lead which renders it practically impossible for Russia to embark upon an increased expenditure on armaments, and ties her hands behind her back so far as any aggressive action is concerned in any part of the world. It was not until the very last dav of niv stay in St. Petersburg, when T had long and important interviews at the Foreign Oflice and with ]\r. AVitte, that I fully realized th"5 immeu'-e practical significance of the Tie- script. It is the fashion to say, " It is very lofty, very noble, etc., etc. But " Always a "" but." So far as the other nations are concerned, the Tsar's pro- posals may be accepted with as many Inits as you please. But in Bussia the Tsar's declarations have a force and a binding autliority which does not depend upon the resolutions of any Conference. "■ The Tsar," said one of his Ministers, " must have been mad if ho had publicly and solemnly affirmed liis determination to abate tlie plague of armaments unless he himself intended to abide bv his own declarations. Ilis Be- script may bind no one else; it undoubtedly binds Bussia. As the other Powers have none of them ex- pressed an opinion that the Tsar is mad, I suppose they accept his Bescript as the public promulgation in the most formal and solemn fashion possilde of his own unalterable resolve to oppose to all policies of aggres- sion a policy of peace, and to endeavor more and morn to diA'ort to : "uitful enterpvlses of peace the immense sums now spent on the army and the navy." 'Ffl mi 20;. THE IS IT ED HTATE OF E110.VJ-] I put to the Minister the frequently stated difHouify about the contrast between the £10,000,000 allocated for extra naval purposes in spring and the Peace Re- script of late midsummer. He replied at once : — " If the Peace Rescript liad been issued seven months earlier we should iiave saved all these millic ns. We cannot get them back, but we shall now be deliv- ered from the fear of seeing other millions take the same road." M. Wittc, as might be expected from the Sir M. Tlicks-Beach of Russia, was most jubilant over the Peace Rescript. He explained to me with tomewhat sonorous eloquence that the famous invitatiori to the Powers not merely made manifest and unmistakable the pacific resolution of t^e Tsar; it immensely re- lieved M. Witte himself. For it need not be stated that in Russia, as in other countries, the nrmy and navy are veritable daughters of the horseleech, per- petually crying, "Give! Give!" The new quick- firing guns for the fieM a. tillery are to be put in hand without delay. Uni\orL:al military service is to be enforced in Finland. The new ships ordered and now in course of construction have to be paid for. Alto- gether, the assault on the Treasury is not likely to be lacking in vigor and persistence. But M. Witte is no longer afraid. " Henceforth," he said, " if my col- leagues should clamor for more millions for the army and the navy I shall have no more trouble in rebutting their demands. T shall simply hold np the Fmperor's Rescript, ^a'\ they will not be able to say a word." TWO LETTERS FRO^J ,sT. P£TERWlli(} •nn '^' Y'es/' somewliat lugubriously remarked a friend of mine in the Foreign Office, to whom I repeated this conversation, " that is just what we fear. We shall find the Kescript used to tie Russia's hands behind her back, and whenever we need money for a strategic rail- way or anything else, we shall be told by ^I. Witte that we cannot have it because the Tsar has issued the Rescript. It is a serious danger for us, no doubt, but we must just make the best of it." I mention this because it illustrates better than a hundred declarations the real practical value of the Russian Rescript as a pledge and guarantee of Russian policy. If the Rescript acts as an effectual check upon the spending departments of the army and navy, it is not less valuable as indicating the trend of Russia's policy — especially in the Far East. There are Rus- sians who believe that it is the manifest destiny of tlieir race to rule tne whole of Asia, just as theit- arc many amongst us who pid)licly ])roclaim that i :■• the manifest destiny of the English-speaking race to d lami- nate not one Continent, but the whole round world. But of aggressive designs against 'hina on the part of any Russian official or unofficial I found none. The Russians indeed are more anxious than the British to resist any further encroachni' uts upon the independ- ence and integrity of the Chinese Em]>ire. They are going to leave the Chinese as much alone as possible. ]\I. Pavloff will soon be cooling his heels in Korea. The new Russian AmbasBadur at Pekin is M. de Giers, It 294 THE IMTED STATES OF EUROPE a man bearing a name wliicli lias long been a synonym for peace and good relations all round. Kiissia will now go slow in China, and she will go all the slower beeauses she realizes better than we do the penalty that is exacted when the pace is forced. I had an idea before I came here that Russians resented our sticking up our flagstaff over the unarmed, ungarrisoned posi- tion of Wei- 1 1 ai- Wei. I do not find this idea con- firmed. On the contrary, they seem to admit that we, like themselves, acted under the stress of dire neces- sity. AVith, perhaps, the doubtful exception of Count Muravieff, of whom I cannot speak at first hand, there are only two opinions about the occupation of Port Arthur and Talienwan. One opinion is that Kussia should not have occupied these ports on any considera- tion whatever. The oth^^v opinion is that it was a most regrettable necessity, which llussia could not escape when once Germany had given the signal for the parti- tion of China by the occupation of Kiao-(Jliau. jSf^o one, so far as I could ascertain, regarded the occupa- tion of Port Arthur and Trdienwan as other than a misfortune for Russia. But while some thought it a less misfortune than the risk of the seizure of Port Arthur by England, a very strong section was willing to face that risk rather than take part in the partition of (Jhinn. Of one thing I am quite certain, and that is iluit Thissia would to-day be in military possession ol the Port of ^slanchuria but for two things. The first and most important was the seizure of Kiao-Chau by (b^'many, which ought to have been forbidden; TWO LETTERti FROM ti'l\ RETERtiBURQ 295 and secondly, the raving rant of our Jingo papers, Avliich seem really to have convinced the Russians that, if they were not quick about it Ei'^iaiid -svouid snap up Port Arthur under their vc.y nose. To prevent our seizing the place, and to establish a counterpoise to Kiao-Chau, they took Port Arthur. Put they are by no means 2)leased about it. " Ach! '• said a Rus- sian Minister to me, piously crossing himself as he spoke — "' if it had not been for the (ierman Emperor seizing Kiao-duui, we should not to-day have had Port Arthur and Talienwan hung like a millstone round our necks. They are white elephants to us; we want no more of the breed." People in England may believe that this is all put on for my benefit if they please. If they knew a little more of the dead set that was made against the seizure of the Manchurian ports, they would be less sceptical and more rational in their appreciation of their neigh- bor's policy. The Russian mood about Port Arthur is, T take it, almost exactly Lord Salisbury's mood about AVei-ITai-Wei. It was a mistake to take it, but it was perhaps a greater danger to leave it alone. But now that it is done, for heaven's sake make an end to the breaking of China, and do what we can to keep going the only Government which rules 400,000,000 of human beings without an armv and without a navv. Hence, from these and other indications of Russian policy, I am more than ever convinced that, so far as Russia is concerned, the barometer is set steady for peace. Certainly, f have found nowhere here, even \\ 290 THE UXITED STATES OF EUROPE '.i ]' among the most bitter assailants of the policy of the (lovernment, the faintest eeho of the nonsense so freely talked in England about the Circular being " a ruse or trick issued in order to conceal some deep-laid plan of the wily jMuravieff." " The wily Muravieff " is hardly a description that would commend itself to his critics in St. Petersburg, who usually assail him for quite an opposite quality. Jjut although Coimt Muravieif is b'oreign Minister, the real direction of i^ussia's ])olicy lies in other hands than his. I repeat once more that the Tsar is in earnest about this mat- ter, and that it will not be his fault if the Conference is not crowned by signal success. When I left the city on October iTth nothing was decided as to the place or date of the assembly of the Conference. The suggestion that it should be held in Brussels may be regarded as disposed of by the fact that in the opinion o"',' u'.e King of the Belgians the ^*roper place of meeting' would be St. Petersburg, where the Conference would assemble under the eyes and under tlu^ direction of tlie noble and powerful sovereign who conceived the generous idea of sum- moninij; the Parliament of Peace. ..^j:: ->^.. ^X .r.^^ IJBRARY. ^4^^ ir-^ i^ CHAPTER IV M. ^VITTE AXD TFIS WORK M. Serge Yulevicli AVitto (or Vitte, if yon conform tlic ortbograpliY of the luuue to its proper pronuncia- tion) is one of the most remarkable Knssians who has ever occnpied his present important post of Minister of Finance and Trade, and by far the strongest of the ten holders of ^Ministerial portfolios who now govern Russia under the Tsar. Since Reutern — who was Minister in the '" sixties/' and whose ultimate success in producing surpluses of revenue in the place of pre- vious deficits was nipped in the bud by the outbreak of the war against Turkev — no other Russian Minister of Finance has j^layed such a conspicuous part in the affairs of State and accouijdished so many important reforms in such a com])aratively short space of time. Tt must be remendjcred, however, in estimating his achievements that the way had, to a great extent, been paved for him by his inunediate predecessor M. Vish- negradsky, who was also a very able Minister of Fi- nance. It was, in fact, due to the patronage of Yish- negradsky that AVitte emerged from the obscurity in which he began life as a minor railway employe at Odessa, and Vishnearadskv, on breaking down in 11' 298 THE V SIT ED UTATEH OF El ROPE Lealtli, proposed M. Witte as his successor to Alex- ander III. ]\r. Witte, like Prince Kliilkolf, the present Minister of Ways and Communications, is essentially a railway man; and his ability in railway administration appears to have been liis sole recommendation for the onerous task of directing the finances of the Empire. And to this circumstance must be attributed the enormous extension of Russia's railways during his term of office. Serge Yulevich Witte was born at Tillis, where his fatlier was at the liead of an Agricultural Department under the Imperial Lieutenant of the Caucasus. After graduating at the University of Odessa, Witte entered the service of the Southwestern Railways in that town, and gradually rose to be traffic manager. In 1878 he was called to St. Petersburg, and took part in a special commission on railways, which led to his appointment as Director of a newly devised Railway Department. Finally, in 1892, he became Minister of Finance, after first acting for a few months as Min- ister of Ways and Comnuinications. As a Minister, he was at once confronted with the opposition of the aristocratic and bureaucratic society of St. Petersburg, who looked at him askance as an upstart and an outsider. All the details of his private life were made the common gossip of the town ; anony- mous and secret pamphlets against him were published abroad and circulated in Russia by thousands; but, nothing daunted, Witte forged ahead and took the Jews into his confidence as indispensable auxiliaries. .1/. WITTE AXD HIH ^YORK 209 He said to Pobedonostseft", the powerful official head of the Russian Church : — " You leave my Jews in peace, and I will not interfere with your priests." All the traits of his character, as well as personal appear- ance, indicate a strong, determined individual, lie is a very tall, largely built man, with a ponderous, ungainly movement in walking, as if he suffered from gout, with no polish of manner, and a disdain for cere- mony and etiquette when he has any point to gain. All the clever politicians and journalists who can serve his purpose he attracts within the widely spread jurisdiction of his ever extending Ministry by tempt- ing offers of more lucrative employment; and if they turn against him he G'euerallv finds means to silence or crush them. When they take refuge abroad, like his deadly enemy M. Cyon, who has published an entire librarv of anti-AVItte literature, he does not scruple to have them outlawed by order of the Tsar. ITis first work in preparation for the monetary re- form was to put down speculation in paper roubles between St. Petersburg and Berlin, and clear out the Augsean stable of the Russian Bourse. He prohibited the exportation of rouble notes; withdrew a large quantity of them from circulation ; limited their future issue by the State Bank on the security of bullion; fixed the rate of exchange in the proportions then pre- vailing on the market between gold and paper, wdiereby the value of the paper rouble became settled at 1^ roubles metallic, and finally reduced the standard silver rouble to a part of the fractional currency, and m j I IMAGE EVALUATION TEST TARGET (MT-S) k A ^/ % a5^: <^.% A 1.0 I.I Ui|M 125 ■^ Kiii |2.2 US 140 2.0 IL25 III 1.4 1.6 Hiotographic Sciences Corporation ^^^ iV iV :\ \ V ^ 6^ '^J^ ^^^' 33 WIST MAIN STRUT WMSTIR.N.Y. USSO (716) 172-4503 '^ .*i .V ^ <^ 800 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE introduced a gold standard by minting a whole series of new gold coins interchangeable everywhere for paper on this basis. The critics who vainly imagined that they might some day get back all that their forefathers fifty years before had gradually lost, or fancied that they had lost, by the depreciation of the paper money, accused him of " devaluation " and repudiation, but AVitte kept on his way "/ithout flinching. A money agent who was discovered to be sending false or alarming information abroad in cipher telegrams was promptly expelled the country. Witte's agents were everywhere in Russia and abroad. He endeavored to regulate the business Change " by compelling the sworn brokers to on a u stand within chalk-marked squares drawn on the floor of the building; but everybody revolted at this absurd and ridiculous measure, and a special commission of Exchange rcfoi-m was then appointed. The bank directors couiplaincd that they were no longer their own masters — Witte dictated to them how they should transact their business, and bullied them if they did not at once comply. One banking firm, suspected of speculating in grain, had their books suddenly over- hauled by a special conmiission sent by Witte, and their shares immediately fell in value. In spite of all this, it is now generally recognized that the results of this redoubtable Minister's work have so far proved highly beneficial to the country at large. It would fill a volume to describe all the meas- ures and reforms which he has had adopted. One of M. WITTE AND BIS WORK 301 of J of the most important has been the brilliant completion of the conversion of the State loans, the interest on which has thereby been reduced from 5 and 5^ per cent, to 4^ and 4 per cent. It is true that in order to do this, and also to supply the wherewithal for the prodigious activity in railway construction, he has had to increase the national debt by hundreds of millions of borrowed money, but the excuse is that this is nearly all for productive objects which will return an equiva- lent and more in due course of time. The last, but not the least, of AVitte's great reforms is the introduc- tion of the State liquor monopoly. There is probably no idea more firmly fixed in the mind of most Englishmen than that the Ilussian people are as drunken a« Tlussian diplomatists are tricky. I am not going to deny it. I think it is true. But that is because the statistical returns prove that the Russians drink much less spirits per head than the virtuous Scotch, and many other nations in Europe. Those who care to go into the subject, not of diplomacy, but of drunkenness, will find it carefully treated by Mr. Carnegie, the second secretary to our Embassy at St. Petersburg, in a report received as recently as last June. I believe that it can be proved that much of the disrepute of Russian diplomacy is duo, not to the dishonesty of the diplomatists, but to the honest desire of the Russian Government to meet tlic wishes of its neighbors. In like manner Mr. Carnegie affirms that the bad reputation of the Russian peasants for drunk- enness is really due to their superior sobriety. It 1 n ?02 77/L' UNITED STATES OF EUROPE M I 'i sounds like a paradox, but it is a simple truth. Mr. Carnegie says: — In Russia the average consumption of spirits was and still remains very mucli lower than in many other countries, and if drunkenness is more apparent than elsewhere it is be- cause the lower classes are unaccustomed to a regular usage of spirits, and are, therefore, more liable to succumb to the temptation to drink in excess when the occasion offers. — Dipl. and Cons. Reports No. 485, p. 5. There are few subjects more interesting to the traveller in Russia than to note the drastic fashion in which the Russian Government has dealt with the liquor trade. We pride ourselves upon our superior morality, but King Demos is powerless in the grasp of that greater than he — King Bung; whereas the Russian autocracy handles the elsewhere omnipotent liquor trade with unceremonious severity. It is enough to turn Sir Wilfrid Lawson green with envy. The United Kingdom Alliance would be delirious with delight if it could in a single English county achieve the results that the Russian Government has attained without fuss or fury in the shape of temperance legislation. In one half of European Russia all sale of spirits for consumption on the premises has been absolutely and ruthlessly suppressed. The only exceptions are the few high-class restaurants and buffets which prove the rule. If any one wants a glass of vodka, for in- stance, in St. Petersburg, he cannot procure it for love or money outside hotels, restaurants and railway buf- M. WITTE AND HIS WORK 303 fets, except in a sealed bottle, which he is not allowed to open on the premises. " ^o corkscrews are allowed in the shops, nor are the buyers allowed to open the bottles on the premises or w^iile carrying them to their destination." To attempt to enforce such a draconian law in England would provoke a revolution. In Rus- sia there has not even been a protest. Nor is that all. At the same time that the Government interdicted corkscrews and prohibited all sale of spirits " to be drunk on the premises," it cut down with unsparing hand the number of places licensed to sell strong drink even under these severe conditions. In St. Peters- burg at one fell blow 400 of the 650 traktirs or spirit shops lost their licenses. In place of 937 wine and spirit shops only 178 were allowed to continue in busi- ness, while 325 Government and private spirit shops but partially replaced the 759 others that had been closed. Mr. Carnegie estimates the number of per- sons who lost their livelihood by this sweeping reform at 10,000 in the capital alone. As for compensation for vested interests, read the following extract from a semi-official publication : — In Russia there can be no question of giving compensation to the evicted retailers of spirits. The license they were granted by which they were permitted to carry on their deplorable business has always been considered by the legislator, the administration, the public, and by themselves as a permission liable to be withdrawn without explanation or comment. — Dipl. and Cons. Reports No. 485, p. 9. If the United Kingdom Alliance does not elect Mr. 304 TflE UNITED BTATEti OF EUROPE '■| \i\ Witte president for life, gratitude must bo extinct in the Local Option breast. Nor is it only the dealers in ardent spirits that have felt the knife of the reforme-'. Poer — tell it not in Burton and name it not in the strec ts of Milwaukee — has also suffered. The restrictions imposed on the sale of beer in St. Petersburg are said to have reduced the consumption by 30 per cent. On the principal holidays — and holidays are numerous in Russia — the drink-shops are shut up either altogether or for the greater part of the day. In the last tliirty years the tax on spirits in England has remained practically stationary. In Russia it has been increased until it is two-and-a-half times more than it was in 1863. Even this was not all. The Government, not con- tent with persecuting the Trade in this high-handed fashion, confiscating licenses, destroying vested in- terests, and abolishing all sale for consumption on the premises, proceeded in still more insidious fashion to undermine the very ground upon which John Barley- corn was still permitted to stand. Side by side with the doomed traktir, the Government is endeavoring to establish tea shops, " intended to become harmless places of resort for the lower classes where they can meet Avithout any temptation to intemperance." Tem- perance committees have been formed whose function it is to make tea-rooms as attractive a.s possible, and so to combat the temptation to drink vodka. ' "When in England we see Government grants made for the establishment of coffee taverns, and when the Lord M, WITTE AND HIS MORE 805 Lieutenant of the county is expected as a matter of course to act as president of the local temperance committee, we shall have come up to the Kussian standard. Of course, those who would discover that the Arch- angel Gabriel was a disguised devil if they overheard him speaking Russian, are quite sure that all this tem- perance legislation is only a ruse of the wily Witte to fill his coffers. It is unfortunate for those suspicious critics who have substituted for the charity that think- eth no evil the hatred that thinketh no good thing- can come out of the Russian Nazareth, that so far as statistics prove anything, the revenue has suffered rather than gained by the change. It is too soon to come to a definite conclusion on the subject, but Mr. Carnegie thinks that the system by which the Russian Government makes the supply of spirits a uionopoly of the state will ultimately both increase the revenue and " act at the same time as a check on intemperance." Few things in St. Petersburg will more startle the untravelled Briton than the discovery that it is the temperance societies which have taken in hand the supply of popular recreation. Imagine Lincoln's Inn Fields handed over to a City Temperance Society for the purpose of making it available for the amusement of the crowded denizens of the back streets of IIol- born. Imagine, if you can, a spacious theatre erected in the centre of the square, and around it various booths, band-stands, and dancing floors, to all of which 20 800 TUIJ UNITED STATES OF EUROPE h' everyone is admitted on paying a few halfpence. Decorate the trees with festoons of colored lamps, brilliantly illuminate the whole area with electric light, and keep the fun of the fair going till mid- night. In the theatre perform Shakespeare's trage- dies and other dramas, classic and otherwise, twice or thrice a week, filling in the alternate nights with "oncerts and other entertainments. When you have done all that and more besides, you will only have reproduced in London what the St. Petersburg Temperance Society, under the presidency of Prince Oldenburg, has done and is doing every summer in the public squares and gardens of St. Petersburg. No doubt, as the Russian scoffer said : " God made the English and someone else the other people." But even the God-made race may here and there discover among " the other people " hints by which it might profit in the solution of the social problems of our time. A summary of "Witte's work would not be complete without a reference to the commercial treaty with Ger- many in 1894, which he succeeded in compelling the Germans to make only after a fierce war of tariffs. Germany had never before been met with such a policy of retaliation on the part of a Russian Minister. M. Witte has not confined himself to Russian inter- nal affairs. His railway and financial schemes in Man- churia and Korea by means of the Russo-Chinese Bank, the now defunct Russo-Korean Bank, and the M. WITTE AXD 11 1 H WORK 307 Eastern Chinese Railway Company, afford proof that he knows also how to conduct an insinuating foreign policy which must be far more effective in the end than such disturbing acts of violent aggression as the seizures of Kiao-Chau and Port Arthur, against which he was the first to protest. '} N< I CHAPTEK V A RUSSIAN COBDEN Soon after the Peace Rescript was issued, a story went the round of the press that it had its origin in a remarkable interview which had taken place between the young Emperor and M. B , who was described as a famous banker, a millionaire, and the author of a ponderous work on the future of war. The story, like most such stories, had a foundation of truth. M. Jean de Bloch, a banker and a political economist of Warsaw, who for the last seven years had devoted his life to the writing of a great book on the development of modern v/ar and its influence on the nations, was received some time ago by the Tsar and afforded an opportunity of expounding his views at great length. Shortly after that interview the Rescript appeared. Post hoc is, however, by no means propter hoc. The famous Rescript had, as a matter of fact, quite another genesis — but into that I need not enter here. Suffice it to say that the interview did take place, and that M. de Bloch found the Emperor keenly and sympathetic- ally interested in all that he had to say. It was not the first time M. de Bloch had enjoyed an opportunity of expounding his conclusions before A RUSSIAN COBDEN 309 , story gin in itween jcribed ;hor of ! story, h. M. mist of )ted his opment ns, was 'ded an length. )peared. ;. The another Suffice that M. )athetic- enjoyed s before the ruler of Russia. He had been received by Alex- ander III. But the difference between the father and the son was most marked. Alexander III. lis- tened courteously, but made no remarks, while Nich- olas II. accompanied and interrupted M. de Bloch's discourse by perpetual questions and comments, which showed the keenness with which he followed the ex- position of the subject. A long discourse it was, two hours on end, and in the middle of it M. de Bloch grew weary, and had to halt for breath. But his Im- perial listener never wearied, and always seemed eager for more. Nor is this surprising. M. de Bloch is a most in^aresting man. He has got hold of a great idea, and he has quite exceptional gifts of exposition. He is of Jewish origin and was born in Poland, a Rus- sian subject. He has travelled much and far, and for the last seven years of his life has devoted his learned leisure and ample means to the production of his magnum opus, " The Future of War." I have called him the Russian Cobden, because he reminds me in many ways of that most famous of all the English economists who were also statesmen. He possesses an engaging exterior, a great persuasiveness, and he is absolutely dominated by his conception of the truth, which he devotes his life to study and to teach. M. de Bloch is not a Free Trader, although he is not a Protectionist of the ordinary type. His resemblance to Cobden does not lie in the particular economical doctrine he professes, so much as in the originality and simplicity of his mode of thought and 1 1 rr^ 810 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE 'ii his absolute certainty that he has struck the root of things, lie is like Cobden in being an international man, in taking wide views of things, and yet in always standing four square upon the solid facts and material- ities of life. " Give me figures," he said to me; '' let me see the facts; it is no use discussing abstractions; we should always see how they work out." AVhat Free Trade was to Cobden, a conception of the approaching extinction of war is to M. de Bloch. Possibly the Warsaw banker may be as much mistaken as was the Corn Law repealer in anticipating the speedy triumph of his opinions. That is a matter which the future alone can reveal. But his great idea is that the immense progress in the deadliness of fire- arms and explosives which has been made in the last quarter of a century, together with what is practically the arming of the whole manhood of Europe, has brought us within close range of the time when war will become practically impossible. Lord Lytton pre- dicted the end of war by the discovery of Yril, that mysterious compound of lightning and dynamite by which a child could annihilate an entire army. M. de Bloch is much too staid and solid a writer to dream of that which does not exist. He takes his stand upon the results already attained, and he maintains, with inexhaustible eloquence and a marvellous store of de- tailed information, that even now, little as the nations dream of it, war has become practically out of the question. And in his opinion the chief object of the Peace Conference ought to be the definite ascertain- A RVSSIAX COBDEN 311 ing and certifying of tlic truth of this fact before the eyes of the whole world. " What people have not realized," said M. de Bloch to nie, " is that modern war is something altogether dif- ferent from all the wars that have ever been fought since the world began. If I were to prescribe the right way in which to educate a soldier to-day, I should begin by burning all military history before 1875. Nothing that happened before then affords any in- struction as to what will happen now. The long range, high velocity, and great accuracy of the modern weap- ons of destruction render the war of the future some- thing altogether different from the wars of the past, so that all conclusions based upon previous campaigns are at fault. High explosives, quick-firing guns, to say nothing of air ships and submarine boats, are rap- idly making war impossible. The carnage, especially of officers, will be such that even a successful war will destroy the social fabric and open wide the door to revolution, which Avill then triumph everywhere." " But," I asked, " are you sure of your facts? You are not a soldier, and how can you speak with authority on such a question? " " For my facts," he said, with pardonable pride, "you can seek in my book. There I have laid the foundation — as I believe, a foundation which no one can shake — of the faith that is within me. I am not a soldier, it is true, I am an economist. But the quali- ties which make the best soldier — the gift of leader- ship, personal prowess, great physical endurance, the {. t ■ ii , 312 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE talent to divine and anticipate an enemy's movements — these do not necessarily enable the soldier to discern the net result of modern inventions or their influence on the future of war. The student who avails himself of all existing materials furnished by military and other authorities need not necessarily be a soldier. In my book, which has already appeared in Russian, and will soon appear in German and in French, you will find the conclusions which I have stated based upon an incontrovertible array of statistics culled from the best authorities on the art of modern war." " How far lias that conviction of the suicidal deadli- ness of modern war spread throughout Europe? " I asked. " At present not far, because few comparatively are aware of the full consequences of recent changes. But in all armies, many of the more intelligent officers realize the fact that for them a declaration of war will be equivalent to a sentence of death. Among Ger- man officers especially I have found of late years a remarkable disappearance of all desire for war. There is no war party among German officers to-day, for they know that war for them would mean death. Again and again they have said to me : ' If war breaks out we shall, of course, go to the front. It is our duty. But none of us will come back.' And they are right. Sharpshooters with arms of precision of immense range will pick off the officers; nor will any tell-tale smoke betray the source of the sudden death." " But," I object, " such ideas have always prevailed A RUSSIAN COBDEN 313 whenever any new deadly weapon was invented. Gnnpowder superseded the how and arrow, hut it did not aholish war. Xeither will high explosives." " By itself perhaps not/' replied M. do Bloch. " But it is not by itself. For the main contention of my book is twofold. First, that the conditions of modern war- fare as to implements of destruction are too deadly iu permit of war without mortality before undreamed of; and secondly, that the disorganization of society which would be occasioned by the mobilization for war of the whole male population would produce results ut- terly destructive to the State. It is with the economic effects of war on the complex system of modern society that I am most interested. The subject has never been studied. But there lies the secret, the fatal secret which mil render war impossible." " In what way? " I ask. " Modern society," he replied, " daily grows more and more complex, more and more delicate. The interdependence of the whole upon the proper func- tioning of each of its parts is every year becoming more palpable. This is no theory, nor does it Cvincern itself with luxuries. It is the simple fact; the daily bread of each of us more and more depends upon the coordi- nation and cooperation of an immense multitude of agencies, most of which are international, but all of which would be readily thrown out of gear by a decla- ration of war. I do not hesitate to declare that the mobilization of the whole manhood of the nation for purposes of war would have on the body politic, on ■ '^-M V I ' ) ■\ 314 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE J I Vi , »t \i f i,: \ :: the social organism, very much what the sudden ex- traction of all the bones would have upon the body of a man." " But surely these things have been duly considered and prepared for? " I object. " Nothing of the kind," he replied. " In England there have been one or two imaginative attempts to forecast the results that would follow the outbreak of war; for England, being the most artificial State in existence, and less self-dependent, is of all others that wliich would be soonest destroyed if by any means the regular functioning of her food supply w^ere interfered with. But in other countries there has been no study of the economic results of war under modern condi- tions. In France some years ago, when M. de Frey- cinet was Prime Minister, M. Burdeau told me that a proposal was made to appoint a Committee of Econo- mists to report upon the economic results that would follow an outbreak of war. But the soldiers vetoed it. They do not wish to have the consequences of war brought home to the knowledge of the people. But that is what the Peace Conference ought' to do." " In what way? " I ask. " It is not for me," said M. de Bloch, " to draw up the programme for the Congress, much less to pre- scribe its procedure or dictate its resolutions. But my idea of what might be done to the most advantage is, if the Congress after its first meeting were to appoint a committee or committees of the ablest of its mem- bers to conduct what would be an international inquiry A RUSSIAN COBDEN 815 into the extent to which modern warfare, under the modern conditions of society, has practically become impossible without sacrifices of life hitherto unheard of on the battlefield, without total dislocation of the fabric of society, and without inevitable bankruptcy and revolution. That is the abyss towards which the nations are rapidly sliding. The Congress should en- deavor to open their eyes to envisage the situation as a whole, from the military, naval, and economic points of view. After the committees had completed their inquiry, the results could be reported to an adjourned meeting of the Congress, which would then busy it- self with providing some other method of adjudicating international disputes than that of war, which would then be perceived to have become absolutely im- possible." Such, in brief, are the ideas of this Russian Cobden. It is obvious that if he is right we are nearer the end of war than any of us ventured to suspect. The proofs of the impossibility of going to war on a great scale without practical suicide of the nation are, he main- tains, to be found in his great book, the six volumes of which lie before me as I write. As I have under- taken to have the gist of them published this spring in English, they will be generally accessible before the meeting of the Congress. But even if M. dc Bloch is mistaken in the confidence which he reposes in what may be described as the self-destruct ive energies of modern war, he is not mistaken in the conviction that the miserably wretched condition of the masses of 816 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE !■ ftf^ '■' 1 1 mankind renders the waste of resources in provision for homicides. It did one's heart good to hear M. de Bloch expatiate upon the immense possibilities that lay before the social reformer who had at his disposal even one-tenth of the sum now lavished on armaments, which, if he be correct, have now attained dimensions which render it impossible to use them. Mr. Cham- berlain in his early days, when he talked of ransom and shed tears over the wretched condition of the serfs of the soil, would have found himself in absolute ac- cord with this bold assailant of the bloated armaments of the modern world. 'Not even John Burns of Bat- tersea could have spoken with more passionate earnest- ness in describing the horrors of the extreme and squalid poverty which abounds beneath the gilded crust of our boasted civilization. I could have counted my visit to Russia well spent if only it had brought me into personal living relations with so remarkable a man as M. de Bloch. Of his book it is impossible to speak here, except in generalities. It is in six volumes, and is very copi- ously illustrated with all manner of diagrams, plans, and pictures. It is entitled in Russian, " The War of the Future in its Technical, Economic, and Political Relations." I have only been able to look through it enough to see that it would be impossible to give a detailed summary without reading it thoroughly, prob- ably more than once. As far as I can make out from the indexes, the first five volumes, including the sup- plement to the fourth, are statistical; analytical, and i ? h A RUSSIAN COBDES 817 descriptive, while the sixth is devoted to " General Conclusions," which tend to show the potential dan- gers of future wars, and summarize the dangers which have occurred in the past. The sixth also treats of the religious, racial, and territorial " open questions " in Europe, and also in the Far East. This volume is the more important just at the present time, and its most important part in its turn is the final portion, " The Conclusion," which treats of possible causes of war, and illustrates their comparative triviality, advo- cates the constitution of an International Court, point- ing out that the present is the most convenient mo- ment, and insists on the necessity for investigating the conditions and consequences of war in a scientific man- ner. The immense ground covered by the work may be gathered from the fact that there is a list, twenty- six closely-printed pages long, of authorities from all languages, in all about a thousand authorities. The book seems to comprise everything directly or indir*^ Jtly connected with warfare and its conse- quences. It treats the question at the same time in the broadest and the most detailed and technical man- ner. In fact, it resembles a cyclopaedia compiled upon a philosophical principle, for it coordinates all the in- formation it contains and brings them into a harmoni- ous system, and only differs from a cyclopaedia inso- much as its ultimate aim is polemical, though as far as bulk is concerned it is mainly statistical. There are nearly four thousand pages in the volumes. M. de Blocli told me that in the French and Ger- 318 THE UXITED HTATES OF EUROPE I i man editions he has changed the title. " AVhcn I went to look over the proofs at the printing establishment in Germany where the German edition is being printed, the foreman printer came to speak to me. It was just after the Tsar's Rescript had appeared. ' Sir/ he said, ' do you not think that your book is now mis- named? You call it "Die Zukunft des Kriegs." ' ' Why so? ' I replied. ' Because,' he said, * after the Tsar's Rescript there should be no more wars. And if so, how can you speak of the Future of War? ' I was so impressed by the man's remark that I call my book simply ' War ' — for war, I hope, has no more a future." \n CHAPTEK VI THE IDEAS OF PRINCE OUCHTOMSKY Of Russian notables who are known beyond the con- fines of their own country the number are few. It is probable that there are not a dozen men in Russia whose names have even been heard by the majority of Englishmen and Frenchmen. But among this dozen there must be included Prince Ouchtomsky, who has a very definite, if not very conspicuous posi- tion. Prince Ouchtomsky is the author of the stately volumes in which are described the incidents of the tour of the present Emperor through Asia. Prince Ouchtomsky accompanied the Emperor on his journey as a kind of historian-in-waiting, and afterwards acted more or less as private secretary to the heir apparent during the latter half of his journey. Since his re- turn he has founded a newspaper in St. Petersburg, the St. Petersburg Viedemostiy which is honorably dis- tinguished in the Russian press for the independence with which it criticises public affairs. Prince Ouch- tomsky may be described as the Russian Wilfrid Blunt. He is a poet, like Mr. Blunt, and he is con- sumed by the same passionate devotion for the Chinese that Mr. Wilfrid Blunt displayed in the cause of the ■f-i I 320 THE UNITED tSTATES OF EUROPE IM ■i,: m \l '' 338 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE ' I . 1 the affairs of the Yellow "World. That is, of course, if it is not violently put hors de combat by an attack from without. Hence, however weak, however cor- rupt, however miserable the Chinese Government may be, we have got to reckon with it — to get on with it, and, in short, to make the most of it and the best of it, instead of making the worst of it. Unfortunately, for some years past the Ambassadors of the Powers at Pekin appear to have been doing their level best to make the worst of it, to weaken and destroy the pres- tige of the central power, with the result that the one agency from which any help can be obtained in over- coming the forces and prejudice of fanaticism and of savagery is at present in a fair way to be rendered utterly useless. The Government of a state, it has been well said, is like the heart in a human body. Upon its regular action depends the life of the whole community. When the heart is weak the circulation is affected, especially at the extremities. That is the case with the Chinese Government. It is weak, and its weak- ness is felt in every province. But notwithstanding its weakness it is the only element of moral strength in the whole Empire. When the railways, for construct- ing which concessions are being so eagerly sought, come to be built in reality across Chinese territory, the very men who are now abusing and denouncing the Tsi" g-li-Yamen ^vill be the very first to appeal to them for assistance! Why then, in the name of common sense, should we allow our Ambassadors to bully and TUE IDEIIS OF PRryCE OUVHTOMSKY yyo ■y browbeat tlic imfortiinate mandarins as they have been doing lately? Granting everything that can be said as to the corruption, the duplicity, the general God- forsakenness of the Tsung-li-Yanien, what good has come of all the hectoring and storming of the Mac- Donalds and Pavloffs and Iley kings? It is not as if the Chinese Government, like that of the Sultan, had any strength in it. It has not, and it knows it has not. Any of the great Powers has only to ask and to have if it chooses, — no, not merely to ask, but to demand. The Tsung-li-Yam.en is helpless, and it knows it. China is no longer an armed state. It is disarmed and powerless. As a British journalist remarked to me the other day, who had himself ridden across Mongolia, one thousand armed men could ride easily through the whole Empire. Nevertheless, this powerless, derided, browbeaten Tsung-li-Yamen have lost none of its pres- tige in the interior of the country. The dim myriad millions of Yellow Men know nothing of the extra- ordinary antics of the Foreign Devils at Pekin. Here and there a Viceroy of a province may have his eyes open to what is going on, and in that way civil war may arise. But the Pekin Government in still the only power with any moral authority that is felt throughout the Chinese Empire. AVhy should we not recognize this fact, and instead of endeavoring to revolutionize it by the aid of Kang-yu-'\Vei or browbeating it by Sir Claude MacDonald and his marines, — why should we not endeavor in real earnest to make friends with the Chinese, to work with them instead of working against Nr^!' i I I h B40 THE UNITED tSTATES OF EUROPE them, and in short to do whatever good feeling and common sense can suggest for averting the break-up and partition of the Chinese State? The best solution of the difficulty presented by the continually increasing pressure of the outside world upon the ancient Chinese social order would be arrived at if the Dowager Empress and the Powers could agree upon appointing a trustworthy white man as the For- eign Secretary of the Chinese Empire, through whom all negotiations should proceed in all matters relating to foreigners. If, for example. Sir Robert Hart had been a younger man, what could be desired more than that he should have been transferred from the Chinese Customs to the Chinese Foreign Office, and given the full Imperial authority to hold the balance even among the crowds of rival contestants for concessions, leases, etc.? If there were a Russian Sir Robert Hart, Britain might be well content to see him in such an office. For things have reached such a pass in the Tsung-li-Yamen that there is no centre of resistance to any demand, no matter how monstrous it may be, if only it be pressed with sufficient force by any of the great Powers. And it w^ould be better for the whites to have to deal with any man of their ow^n skin, no matter what nationality he was, so long as he was admittedly just and honest, than to deal with a group of cowering yellow men who do not understand half that is said to them, who of necessity lie all round, and who yield like a swinging door to every thrust from the outside. Unfortunately, this suggestion of a White Foreign THE IDEAS OF PRINCE OUCHTOMSKY 341 Secretary for China, approved by all the Powers and nominated by the Dowager Empress, on condition that he managed all the affairs of the Foreign Devils and left the Chinese absolutely free to govern themselves as they pleased, is a counsel of perfection. The Pow- ers would never agree. The Dowager would never appoint. It would also be difficult, when the three thousand miles of railway begin to be laid and £28,- 000,000 of foreign capital is invested in Chinese lines, rigidly to separate foreign and domestic politics in China. This being so, some other solution must be sought. The importance of preventing the break up of China is equally obvious to Russia as to ourselves, and the problem may find a readier response at St. Peters- burg than in London. The Russians have gazetted M. Pavloff to Korea. His successor, M. de Giers, will have orders to go slow. Li Hung Chang, although nominally out of office, is still the power behind the throne. The Dowager Empress, it is evident, is no mere puppet, like the mandarins of the Tsung-li- Yamen, to be bullied with impunity. A great oppor- tunity lies open to the Power which will first and with frank sincerity proclaim itself the protector of the Chinese against further aggression. There would be no need of any formal treaty or any alliance. All that would be necessary would be for the foreign Power, whichever it may be, to declare its determina- tion to oppose all dem mds on China which it con- sidered unjust, and to exercise the task of adjudicating 342 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE I : upon the justice of such demands with impartiality and intelligence. Such a Minister at Pekiu would soon acquire the ascendency of the Great Eltchi at Constantinople before the Crimean War. If, for in- stance, an Ambassador personally sympathetic with the Chinese were sent to replace Sir C. MacDonald at Pekin, and if he were to make it the avowed prin- ciple of his policy to support the Dowager Empress in opposing every demand which a competent expert, say a man like Sir Robert Hart, were to declare to be pre- judicial to the integrity and independence of the Chi- nese Emj)ire, how long would it be before the Chinese mandarins would huddle beneath our protecting wings as chickens flock to the hen when the shadow of the hawk crosses the yard? These considerations are equally obvious to the Rus- sian Government, which may easily forestall us in their application. Russia has no eager concession- naires pounding away in newspapers and in Parlia- ment to assail her Foreign Minister if he does not use ironclads to extort concessions. Russia has already nominated her new Minister at Pekin. Li Hung Chang is by no means indisposed to welcome from Russia more sympathetic treatment than he has re- ceived from M. Pavloff. And if the Tsar should de- cide upon assuming the role of friendly protector of the Chinese Government, he has in Prince Ouch- tomsky an admirable agent, who, as unofficial Euro- pean adviser to Li Hung Chang, would soon bring about the Russo-Chinese entente. I TUE IDEAS OF PRIXCE OUCUTOMSKY 343 When we read the following passage from Prince Oiiclitonisky's book describing the Eastern tour of the present Emperor we seem to hear the voice of Mr. Blnnt — with a Chinese accent: — China, so far as work and patience are concerned, is a uniquely great nation. It has produced a Confucius and numbers a thinlcer like Lao-tse amongst the ranks of its philosophers. It is a State which has elevated to the high- est point of perfection and simplicity both the cult of the monarchic principle and the reverence for those ancestors declared by the nation to be worthy of immortality. This country is our best neighbor, and the neighbor most like ourselves because of its conservative inclinations and qualities. Every Russian knows that a handful of soldiers from our army would suffice to reduce to subjection the whole of China. But if we did so it would perhaps result in Russia's comparative youth and energy, her ideals and creative rest- lessness, slowly withering away. But still more harmful would it be to give the Western nations absolute control over China in her for the present helpless condition. He is objected to at the Russian Eoreign Office as being " too Chinese for anything." lie is a personal friend of Li Ilung Chang, and, as he is profoundly impressed by the perils of breaking up the Chinese Empire, he would work hand and glove with the Chi- nese Government in maintaining the status quo. However that may be, the Chinese problem remains before us, fraught with immense possibilities for evil to mankind. The one solution that seems absolutely the worst is its partition into an anarchic congeries of armed states under the guidance of rival European m 1 844 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE Powers. The one thing to be aimed at is the main- tenance of the unity whicli enables one-third of the human race to live and labor in peace without the aid of Maxims and ironclads. Rather than sacrifice that unity, I for my part would welcome a protectorate of China by any one European power, subject to three conditions — free trade, free religion and no arma- ments. As the status quo gives us all three, is it not worth while making an effort to prevent its destruction? 4: CHAPTEK VII THE EMPEROR OF PEACE Nicholas II., the Tsar of Kussia, who to-day is what the Americans would call the '' banner-bearer in the canse of Peace," is a soldier, a Colonel in the Russian army, and the honorary Colonel of a regiment in the English army. He is the first Russian Sovereign who has received an honorary command in the British army, and his appointment was due to the direct per- sonal initiative of Her Majesty the Queen. Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman was in those days Secretary of "War, when his Royal mistress intimated that her fa- vorite grandson must have an honorary command in the army of the Queen. Sir Henry Campbell-Ban- nerman is a practical man, and the canny Scot saw no end of difficultie in the way of such a departure from precedent. He pointed out to the Queen that it would be easy to ma lie the Tsar an honorary Colonel in the army, but that would only be the beginning of trouble. All the other crowned heads would con- sider themselves slighted unless they were equally pro- moted to honorary colonelcies. Therefore, he said, it was quite impossible. The Queen listened to his ex- postulations, and said : " It may be impossible, but it I if ifj^ . ^^ M 84G Till] UNITED STATES OF EUROPE will have to be done all the same " — and done it was. But it was the opening of the door, for the next year the Junperor of Austria received a similar distinction. The Enij^eror is also a a officer in his own navy, and usually v/ears uniform. The first time I saw him he was in military uniform, and the second time in naval, for it was the day on which he was about to start for Sebastopol to review the fleet. lie entered the army when he was eighteen, and made himself an efficient officer, although he never displayed any passion for soldiering. Consider- ing the way in which he was brought up by his father, it was not likely that he would develop any. Alex- ander III. had made one campaign before he came to the throne, and the impression left upon him of the miseries and brutalities which follow inevitably in the train even of a liberating war made him determined that, come what might, during his reign Kussia should sleep in peace. The late Tsar was never so happy as when he was disporting himself with his children, far from the cares of state. At these times he was ever wont to impress upon the young folks his horror and detestation of war. He would tell them anecdotes of what he had seen when in Bulgaria, and always with the same object. His mind was filled with the seamy side of campaigning; the pride, pomp, and circum- stance of " glorious war " had no fascinations for him. He had seen his soldiers perish in the winter snows of the Balkans; he had witnessed all the squalid reality of the campaign in Bulgaria, and his anecdotes always THE TSAKINA ' i !« 1 m ( I • ,i 'M I ! THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 847 pointed the same moral, viz., that war was dreadful, horrible, and inhuman. "May (»od keep you," he used to add with great earnestness, '' from ever seeing it, or from ever drawing a sword." Nicholas II., the Emperor of Peace, is the son of Alexander III., the Peace-giver of Europe. Alex- ander III. was the son of Nicholas I., who was recog- nized for many years as the Chief Justice of the Con- tinent, and he succeeded Alexander I., a man who, although best known in this country as the head of the Continental Alliance which enabled us to triumph in the long death-struggle with Napoleon, was in his lat- ter years passionately devoted to peace. It was in order to establish European Peace upon a firm foun- dation of Christian principle that he joined with the King of Prussia and the Emperor of Austria in pro- claiming the Holy Alliance, one of the first attempts which was ever deliberately made by three great Euro- pean Sovereigns to establish the tranquillity of Europe upon the basis of the Gospel. Their method may have been mistaken, and they may have done more harm than good, but no one can doubt the sincerity of the Emperor Alexander and his passionate desire to make an end of war. He had seen his capital ablaze, and he had led his victorious troops in triumph into the capital of France; but when he left Paris after peace was made he was dominated by the same intense loath- ing of war which reappeared in Alexander III. Those who are interested in the subject will find the story of the Iloly Alliance told truthfully and sympatheti- 348 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE I ii *i I i cally in " The Life and Letters of Madame de Kru- dener." Five years later a wortiiy Quaker, Stephen Grellet, visited St. Petersburg, and received from Alexander a warm and sympathetic welcome. The Emperor told the good Friend how, when he was quite a hoy, Prince Alexander Galitzin had given him a Bible, and recommended him to read it. He devoured it eagerly, and laid the foundation of a character to which, after many backslidings and many failures, Iladame de Krudener was able to appeal with tri- umphant success in her evangelistic mission. Grellet reports that he talked long and much v 'th the Em- peror upon religious matters; and then occurs a very remarkable passage which is well worth recalling at the present time: — We entered pretty fully into the nature of the peaceable kingdom of Christ, and to what the spirit of the dear Re- deemer, who is love, would lead all who are obedient to its dictates, on which he stated how great his soul's desire and travail had been that wars and bloodshed might cease for ever from the earth; that he had passed sleep -ss nights on account of it, deeply deploring the woes and misery brought on humanity by war; and that whilst his mind was bowed before the Lord in prayer the plan of all the crowned heads joining in the conclusion to submit to arbitration whatever differences might arise among them, instead of resorting to the sword, had presented itself to his mind in such a manner that he rose from bed and wrote what he then so sensibly felt — that his intention" had been misunder- stood or misrepresented by some, but th£.t love to God and man was his only motive in the Divine sight. He was In Paris at the time he formed that plan. The ^vriting to which the Emperor referred was un- THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 349 doubtcdly the famous proclamation of the Holy Alli- ance. " The fundamental thought of the Emperor Alexander," says " Clarence Ford," Madame de Kru- dener's biographer, " was the foundation of an inter- national law founded on Christianity, which should unite on a single broad basis all the Churches of Europe, Catholic and Orthodox, Protestant and Angli- can. This, the Tsar believed, would lay the founda- tion-stone of that era of universal peace which it had been his life-long dream to establish throughout Europe." Laharpe, his old tutor, who had little sym- pathy wuth the Evangelical enthusiasm of the Tsar's later years, wrote: "Although intrepid in the midst of danger, Alexander held war in abhorrence. Fully realizing the abuses which excited the discontent of nations, he hoped that in the course of the long peace European Governments, recognizing the necessity of undertaking reforms demanded by the requirements of the century, would seriously set themselves to the task. To attain this object a profound tranquillity was necessary." It is worth wdiile recalling these facts to show that Nicholas II. is in the true line of succes- sion, and that in his latest Rescript he is but reverting to principles which were affirmed by his predecessor, Alexander I., at the very moment when the crowning victory had been achieved which gave Kussia the same preeminence on the Continent that Great Britain had on the sea. The Tsar is said to have declared that he hoped he would not only be Nicholas II., but the second Xich- ! '.ii hi -■ fl > U ' ( I. I 350 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE ■Si ! N olas, for the memory of the Tsar against whom our fathers warred in the Crimea and the Baltic is held in high regard by patriotic Russians. There is, however, not much of the element that made l^icholas disliked outside Russia in his young namesake. It is probable that he takes more after his grandfather Alexander II., whose ideas he has Inherited, and to whose memory he has just unveiled the imposing monument which has been reared in the Kremlin. Alexander II. was a man who concealed a great tenacity of purpose under an appearance that did not exactly give the idea of strength. In some respects he was weak, but in rela- tion to the main purpose and the chief work of his reign — the emancipation of the serfs — his constancy could not have been greater if he had been made of iron. One who knew him well told me that she re- membered how he used to sit in the midst of cynical and critical counsellors who were bent upon thwarting his will and ])reventing emancipation. All the while he would sit silent, with a far-away look in his eyes, as if he saw things Avhich others did not see, and at the end of the Council he would simply affirm his un- shaken resolution to put the thing through. And put through it was, all gainsayers to the contrary not- withstanding. So it may be with Nicholas II. lie has put his hand to a still vaster task than that which tested the power of his grandfather, and it will be well if he brings to the work some of the adamantine firmness, almost stolidity, of his father. For when Alexander III. said u thing, that thing I THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 351 diile s un- And not- II. that d it the ther. hing was. When he put his foot down, there it stayed. It may save some of my confreres some trouble and the Imperial household a considerf'ble nuisance if I explain simply, once for all, how it was I caine to be privileged with the opportunity of discussing public questions face to face in frank and friendly conver- sation with the Ruler of Russia. It was not until 1888 that I first thought it possible I might have a good square talk with the Tsar. I was then editor of the Fall Mall Gazette, and by the vig- orous method in which I had championed the Russian cause during the Penjdeh dispute and afterwards, I had succt 3ded in establishing for myself a more or less recognized position as a " Russian organ." I was abused as a Russian agent, I was said to be in the pay of the Russian Embassy, and, in short, I enjoyed the distinction of being pelted by all the vituperative brickbats which came handiest to those gentlemen who did me the honor to disagree with me. I need hardly say, at this time of day, that these complimentary as- sertions were, well — about as accurate as the majority of the statements which serve as the stock-in-trade of the Russophobist. Ever since I first wielded a pen as journalist I had been the faithful and resolute advo- cate of an Anglo-Russian entente. I got my ideas on this subject originally from Richard Cobden's political writings when I v quite a boy, and I have not de- parted from them a hair's breadth ever since. Never- theless, although I have never received any communi- h m r .(I 352 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE *• . i ,! i cation from the Russian Government, and although I had often sought in vain even the most ordinary facili- ties in the way of acquiring information, the ordinary British Philistine got it firmly fixed into his thick head that in some way or other I was the officious, if not the official and inspired organ of the Tsar. The more I reflected upon i e consequences which might follow from this abcurd misconception of the actual state of things, the more necessary it seemed that I should make an effort to ascertain at first hand from the Emperor himself the general drift of his policy in all matters likely to affect the relations be- tween the two Empires. The possibility of altogether misleading British opinion by putting forward my own ideas of Russian policy, and having them accepted in- stantly, despite all my disclaimers, as the authoritative expression of the views of the Russian Government, seemed to me to justify an attempt to ascertain directly from the Emperor what his policy actually was. Ma- dame N^ovikoff, with whom I had had the pleasure and privilege of working in this good cause for ten years or more, was good enough to obtain me a reception at Gatschina in the earlv summer of 1888. AVhen I met the Tsar, I put the case frankly before Alexander III., pointing out the danger of having accorded to me a position to which I had no claim, and suggesting that as I could not, despite all my disclaimers, rid myself of the reputation of being his Englit^li organ, it would at least be safer if he could give me more or less defin- ite information as to what were his ideas upon the THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 353 questions which were involved in the relations between England and Eussia. The Emperor thought a little, and then said he considered the suggestion reasonable. What, he asked, did I want to know? " Everything," I replied, at which he smiled and said, " Ask what questions you please, and I will answer them if I can." I availed myself of the opportunity to the full, and the Emperor was as good as his word. I asked, he an- swered, and by the time that the interview was over I had received a comprehensive and definite exposition, direct from the Emperor's own lips, of the p licy he intended to pursue in relation to all the questions in which England was interested. Sir Robert Morier, our then Ambassador at St. Petersburg, speaking of this interview, said that no Kussian Emperor had ever spoken so freely and fully upon all questions of foreign policy to any English- man, and he added that he could not conceive of any circumstances better calculated to secure absolute can- dor on the part of the Tsar than those in which our interview took place. A good deal that the Emperor told me was much questioned at the time. I was ridiculed for my credu- lity. One eminent statesman told me flatly that he did not believe what the Emperor had said, and he laughed me to scorn for my simplicity in accepting his word. But time passed, and the result proved that in every single item the Tsar had stated exactly the course which he actually pursued. So signal a vindication of the trustworthiness of the communications made to 23 II fl',' i 1,1 354 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE me on that occasion was afforded by the subsequent events of his reign, that when it came to its close the same statesman who had derided me for my credulity, told me in the handsomest manner that he had been entirely wrong, and that I had been absolutely right. I must confess that I look back to that episode in my career with considerable satisfaction. There was no undertaking expressed or implied that I would support the policy of the Emperor. He asked nothing from me. I onlv asked from him the exact trath in order that I might avoid misleading my countrymen. lie told me the exact truth, and as a result during all the rest of his reign I was able to speak with absolute cer- tainty where all the rest of my colleagues were com- pelled to rely upon inference and conjecture. I had no occasion to oppose his policy. It coincided with the policy which I have been advocating indepen- dentlv for vears. But if I had differed from it, I never felt myself under the slightest obligation to ab- stain from opposing it to the uttermost of my ability. AVhen I was taking my leave of the Emperor, he was good enough to say that if at any time unforeseen difficulties should arise between Russia and England, he would be glad to see me again. " See M. Giers," he said, " and arrange this before you go back to Eng- land." There was, however, no occasion for me to avail myself of this invitation. As long as Alexander III. lived there were no difficulties necessitating an- other pilgrimage to Gatschina. It was not until the dispute about the future of THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 355 >) China began to be acute that I felt that I was justified in recalling the Emperor's invitation. I did not know, of course, whether Nicholas II. would be willing to see me, but I thought it well, under the circumstances, to recall his father's promise, and to inquire whether or not he would accord me the same privilege of frank and direct communication. The answer was in the affirmative: and that was why I went to Livadia. It is obvious, therefore, that there was no question here of an ordinary or extraordinary newspaper inter- view. Equally of course there could be no question of the publication of any report of the conversation that took place. All that I can say is that Nicholas II. received me with cordiality and accorded me facilities equal to those I received from his father for ascertain- ing exactly what his ideas were upon the questions which now or at any other future time might endanger the friendly relations of our two countries. As to what he said I can of course say nothing here, except- ing to affirm in the strongest possible terms my abso- lute conviction that the Emperor is as passionately devoted to peace as was his father, and that in no point of the whole range of his policy is there any antago- nism whatever between his aims and the interests of the British Empire. And as I do not say this without having had ample opportunities of informing myself as to the aims and objects of the foreign policy of Her Majesty's Government, I have a right to feel that I have indeed brought back from Livadia glad tidings if f; / » i vT ij; J, » 'i -pi \:l I: ' ; ! '; ■ : 350 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE of great joy, promising peace to the world and good- will to England. The day after I arrived at Yalta in the Crimea, as I was returning to the Hotel de Russie, a Russian lady whom I had casually met on the steamer the previous day greeted me pleasantly. " So you are going to see the Emperor to-morrow? It is very pleasant for you. T congratulate you on your good fortune." I was somewhat confused. I had said nothing to any living soul about my request for an audience with the Tsar. I did not even know my application had been granted. Yet hero was this stranger proclaiming the fact as if it w^as the talk of the town. On reaching my room, I found a card making an appointment with the Emperor, and the mystery was explained. Gen- eral Ilesse had called, and, not finding me in, had left the card with the proprietor of the hotel. It was the first contrast that struck me between my visit to the late Tsar at Gatschina and my reception by his son at Livadia. At St. Petersburg in 1888, for some reason or other, it was held to be necessary to preserve the most absolute silence about the fact that I had been admitted to talk face to face with the Em- peror of all the Russias. So well was the secret kept that on the very day I was received at Gatschina, when the wife of the German Ambassador was expressing to the wife of the British Ambassador her pitying com- passion for the inevitable disappointment of my pre- sumptuous aspiration to see the Tsar, it was thought inexpedient to undeceive her. Until the day the Tsar THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 357 died, I never permitted myself to state in print that I had even so much as spoken to him. The first state- ment that was ever published that I had seen the Emperor appeared twelve months after my visit, and it did not come out through any act of mine. It was when the German Emperor paid his first visit to St. Petersburg that the story got about. It was one of the jokes of the Russian Court that I was the only man who had ever dismissed the Tsar. Alexander III. was much amused at inv unwitting' breach of court etiquette, and told the story to his German vis- itors, through whom it found its way into th'- press. I shall never forget the expression of mingled hor- ror and amusement on Sir Robert M orier's face when, on returning from Gatschina to the British Embassy, I told him how the interview had terminated. " You don't mean to say you dismissed the Emperor! " he exclaimed. " It's perfectly monstrous! " " Well," I said, " I don't know about that. But I knew the Em- press had been kept waiting for her lunch for half an hour or more. As I had got through all the questions I washed to put to the Tsar, I got up, thanked him for his patience and kindness, and said I would not detain him any longer." " You did, did you? " said Sir Robert. " Don't you know it is an unpardonable breach of etiquette even to stir from your seat till the Sovereign gives you the signal to rise?" "I knew nothing about that," I replied. " I only knew that, when I saw the Emperor smile as he got up, I had been an idiot for my considerateness. If I had only iii :| 'f yil [»■ ^!i, 358 THE UNITED kiTATEH OF EUROPE ; I sat still, lie iiiiglit liuve gone on talking for another half hour; and one does not talk to an Emperor every day." I was somewhat consoled for my simplicity when in Paris the other day I was told that President Paure had committed the same mistake when he met our Queen in the South of Prance. Instead of waiting to be dismissed, he rose first, to the amazement and even, it is said, disjoleasure on the part of Royalty. M. Paure apparently heard of his faux pas, and promptly determined to make up for his mistake by himself adopting t le Koyal etiquette. N^ow at the Elysee,* no matter how great may be the personage who is received by the President, he must not dare to rise until M. Paure gives the signal. The innovation is not alto- gether regarded with favor by the more austere Repub- licans, but their number is few. So M. Paure, the quondam tanner, becomes more and more like Louis Quatorze every day. Sic iiur ad asfra! The homely sim})licity of life in Yalta and Livadia was another contrast not less striking. In 1888 the Tsar lived more or less under the shadow of assassina- tion. Ilis father had been blown to pieces in the streets of the capital, where now a stately church is being built to commemorate the sacrifice. lie him- self had narrowly escaped destruction in the catas- trophe at Borki, where also a gorgeous fane with gilded dome has been erected as a thank-offering for When I went down to Gatschina * This was written in January, 1899. a great deliverance. THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 859 in company with General Iticliter there was every- where the consciousness of a constantly impending invisible danger. I had to wait for an hour and more for the audience, and then I was conducted through what seemed a furlong of ante-rooms and cor- ridors and state apartments, a perfect maze of laby- rinthine perplexity, until at last I was ushered into the small workroom where Alexander 111. received me. lie was alone save for the presence of a huge dog, which had a most uncomfortable habit of jump- ing up every three minutes and walking backwards and forwards impatiently in front of the Tsar as if to intimate that it was time for the visitor to go. It is true that nothing could be more cordial, more simple, and more kindly than the Empcior s de- meanor. But I could not escape from a certain all- pervading sentiment of awe, which lasted all through the solitary lunch and the journey home. How different it was at Livadia! There was no mystery, no distance, no solitude, no sense of unde- finable danger. There are few more beautiful spots in Europe than the neighborhood of Yalta. The drive to Livadia up hill and down dale, which we took at breakneck speed, between the mountains and the sea, is magnificent. The Euxine, not a Black but an azure Sea, stretches out far below, an immense expanse of sunlit water, across which flit interminable strings of birds, migrating southward from the approach of win- ter. The Mediterranean, seen from the Riviera, never looked more radiantly beautiful than did the Black pI ii it • ■{; 'i 860 T//7? rXTTED fiTATEfi OF EUROPIJ Sea on the dav wlicn T visited Livadia. On tlie road you come at every turn upon something quaint and strange. Xow it is a string of creaking country carts drawn by diminutive oxen, then it is the curious stage wagon of the Crimea, like a long double; bench, on which the passengers sit back to back with their legs dangling in the air. Suddenly you hear a trampling of hoofs, and a gay cavalcade of ladies and gentlemen, splendidly mounted and escorted by picturesque Tar- tars, gallop by, calling up I know not by what strange association of ideas a flood of mingled memories of " The Bride of Abydos," and of the hawking parties of the ]\riddle Ages. A gilded landmark indicates the point where the road to Livadia turns to the left from the high road. The driver removes the bells from his horse's neck, we show our laissez passer to the officer in command at the entrance, and then oif we dash along a road good enough to be made in France, through the undulating vineyards in the midst of which Livadia stands. The vineyards are studded with prettily designed watch-towers from which sol- diers, standing on sentry, keep a vigilant eye upon all possible marauders or interlopers. A sailor paces backward and forward under the Russian flag which floats high above the trees. A Circassian, apparently on duty, glances at you as you drive by, but other traces of vigilance there are none, any more than in the grounds at Balmoral or in the park at Windsor. It was at the latter end of October when I was at Livadia, and the changing color of the vine leaves, the road lint and try carts ►us stage 'neh, on [leir legs ■anipling iitlemen, que Tar- t strange iiories of g parties indicates » the left the bells passer to then off made in he midst ( studded hich sol- upon all or paces ig which )parently )Ut other than in Windsor. I was at e leaves, ON Till-: ]!()A1) KUOM J,IVA1)IA 'JO SKMASTOIMI, UALAKLAVA, TOWN AND BAY ^i r :f s r THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 861 varying from the deepest purple to the hue of bur- nished gold, produced a singularly beautiful effect. All the grapes were gathered, save those for the table ; the rest had gone to the wine-press. Alexander III. being a thrifty man, and keenly alive to the impor- tance of developing the resources of Russia, paid great attention to his vinevards; and wines from his vinevard figure in the wine list in all the hotels of St. Peters- burg. The hills are well wooded, and the dark foliage of the plantations contrasted splendidly with the glow- ing carpet of color that spread over hill and vale down to the wooded edge of the deep blue sea. Inland, the mountain tops swathed in clouds formed a fitting back- ground to the romantic scene. Better site for an Imperial pleasure house could not be imagined. There are several houses within tlie park limits; some ol them hardly distinguishable in appearance from the Emperor's. They are all of the same general aspect, and are characterized more by the air of com- fort and taste than by magnificence. The Emperor's house is a beautiful country villa, two stories high, with spacious verandah, plentifully overgrown with foliage, with wide eaves, standing like a nest among the trees in a wilderness of flowers. You enter a hall, remark- abl(> chiefly as the location of the loudest clanging telephone I ever heard, rest for a few minutes in a sim])ly furnished waiting-room, and then comes the summons. You follow an officer a few stairs u]) a staircase and you are in tlu^ Km]ieror's study. You might be in an English country hous'^ Everything I, \ f ii I 862 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE u. t f'i' , > t- I '■t is simple and comfortable. The only feature not quite familiar were the lovely baskets of fruit, which, both in color and fragrance, added an element unusual but in delightful harmony with the sylvan character of the rural retreat. When at Sebastopol I wrote for the Daily News a description of the scene on the evening of the Em- peror's visit to that stronghold, as an introduction to my report of the impression produced on my mind by my visit to LiA^adia. As it was written when the im- pression was deepest, I cannot do better than reproduce it here: — Sebabtopol, October 29, 1898. Last night Sebastopol was enfHe. The Emperor and Empress had come over in the Imperial yacht from Yalta to inspect the Black Sea fleet and to meet the Dowager Empress on her arrival from Copen- hagen. The yacht was lying opposite the Count's landing-place, all aglow with electric light. A short distance further down the harbor lay five battleships black and grim, their huge bulk looming large across the gleaming water. Viewed from my balcony, the scene was singularly beautiful. The moon, now at her full, shone down from a cloudless sky, flooding the white city with white light. From the boulevard, where once frowned the three-tiered rows of the two hundred and sixty cannon of Fort Xicholas, there came, as the music rose and fell, throbbing strains of melody. In the streets the bright lights of the elec- tric cars shone out here and there through the leafy THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 303 avenue; in the harbor the lynx-eyed patrol-boat, with its double lamp, steamed ceaselessly round and round the Imperial yacht, keeping jealous watch, like the fire-eyed water-snake of fairy legend over the Prince's bower. I had crossed that afternoon the battlefield of Bala- klava, and the site of the famous Flagstaff Battery, behind which the Russians kept at bay for two years the allied forces of four nations. Forty-two years ago the whole south side of the city where I was standing had been battered into bloodstained, smoking ruin. Two miles to the northward stood the gray pyramid erected in the Russian cemetery to the memory of the tens of thousands of Russian soldiers who died in the defence of their fatherland against the foreign in- vader. The ink with which I write this letter is taken from an inkstand made out of case-shot picked up on the battlefield. Everywhere some name recalled the sombre memories of the great crime whereby the long peace was broken up and the half-century of war was begun. Two lines came humming through my head: — Here, where Murder breathed her bloody steam, And man was butchered by his fellow man safy And wherefore butchered? AVhorofore but because those who decreed the slaughter wished to destroy Sebastopol and to forbid Russia being the naval mis- tress of the Black Soa. Xow Sebastopol is far more strongly armed than it was in 1853. And the great (' 304 THE UNITED ^TATEH OF EUROPE ■i ii '' 1 '; i; ' ii I i ;|!lf floating fortresses of iron and steel anchored in the harbor make the Tsar the undisputed Lord of the Eux- ine up to the very gates of the Bosphorus. Everything is as it was before the war began, only more so — ex- cepting the hundred thousand gallant soldiers who died that it may be otherwise than it was written in the book of fate. Sebastopol was, half a century since, the Colosseum of the Continent. But, as in the (Vlosseum a simple cross reared in the arena once drenched by the blood of so many martyrs symbolizes the triumph of the Prince of Peace over the pride and cruelty of Im- perial Rome, so last night, in the harbor of Sebastopol, the Tsar's yacht seemed an emblem not less significant of the triumph of peace. For there, in the midst of all that could most easily tempt a monarch to swell with pride at conscious strength or to indulge in bitter feelings against the enemies who invaded his country, was the Tsar of Bussia, fresh from reviewing his iron- clads and inspecting his stronghold, thinking only with passionate, impatient preoccupation of how he could best bring about the establishment of the kingdom of peace. The gladiatorial games went on in the Colos- seum until the day when i}ie monk Telemachus flung himself into the arena and sealed his protest with his life. If the Tsar is not a Telemachus, a fanatical enthu- siast, wild with a fixed idea, in pursuit of which he is ready to sacrifice everything, what may he be? What is the precise equivalent of this new factor in the sum THIJ iJMFEROK OF PFACi: 365 f of the forces which govern the world? Ever since the publication of the Peace Rescript, the question every one has been asking is: What manner of man is its author? lie is the x in the equation. What does a; amount to? Upon the answer to that question every- thing depends. It was to solve that problem I came to Russia, and now, after a week's sojourn, I think I have found the answer. I have heard a great deal from those who are in the best position to know — his Ministers, the people of his household, the ambassadors of foreign Powers, and his own personal friends. I have also been freely entertained l)y all manner of stories, told by — I do not say liis enemies, for he has few, but by those who dissent from his policy, and occupy themselves with more or less belittling his per- sonality. And, lastly, I have had the privilege of meeting the Emperor himself, and of basing my judg- ment upon my own personal impression of the man at close quarters. It is necessarily upon these personal impressions that my judgment is chiefly based. When I set out on my quest I was told that the Emperor was weak physically and mentally. lie was said to be the mere tool of " the wily ]\[uravieff," or the obedient puppet now of the Empress Dowager, and then of the present Empress. lie was a good- h^ca'ted young man, no doubt, but possessing neither the physical nor intellectual qualities to make a great Sovereign. Even those who spoke kindly of him said that, although he was well meaning, he had no decision W\ 11 M / 366 TUE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE H of character, and that he constantly allowed his own convictions and inclinations to be overshadowed by the antliority of the Ministers whom he inherited from his father. And, finally, I was always told not to think too much of the Rescript, for the Emperor was not strong enough to bear up against the forces brought to bear against him. It was with all this in my mind that I had my first audience at Livadia. A Princess at the Court, as I was leaving, asked me, " Well, and what is your opinion? " To wdiom I re- plied simply, " I thank God for him! If he be spared to Russia, that young man will go far." That was my opinion then. It is my opinion still. But it is deepened and confirmed by subsequent com- munications. " What w^ent ye out into the wilderness to see ? A prophet ? Yea, I say unto you, and more than a prophet," was the old question and answer. And so, if I am asked, " What went ye out into the wilderness to see? A reed shaken by the wind? " I reply, " An Emperor, yea, I say unto you, and more than an Emperor." For wh'.le no unworthy successor of the most illustrious line of uionarchs Avho have ruled in Europe this century, he aspires after greater con- quests, he indulges a nobler ambition. A group of peasants, the other day, were talking about his Peace Rescript, the drift of wdiich they divined rather than imderstood. Said one of them with deep feeling: "His grand- father made us peasants free. The grandson is trying to liberate all mankind from war." And that peasant THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 367 spoke the true word. After licaring liim speak of evils and miseries entailed by the war system of the world, the familiar words of the Seventh Beatitude recurred to my mind almost as a benediction from on high : " Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God! " Nicholas II. in stature does not resemble his father, who was a son of Anak. It is a mistake, how^ever, to speak of him as if he were exceptionally slight. lie is about the same height as General Gordon, whom he resembles in other things besides the number of his inches. When he rides or sits, the Emperor seems as tall as m.ost men. When he stands, he is a little taller than Lord Nelson or Napoleon Buonaparte. Good stuff, says the old adage, is often put up in little bundles, and the giant in popular legend is usually as dull as he is huge. In physique the Emperor is wiry and vigorous. One who sees him every diiy told me that physically Nicholas is a much healthier man than his father. Alexander III., although great in stature and with immense muscular development, was, from the insurance company's point of view, by no means so " good a life " as that of his successor. The Tsar is full of vitality, quick and active in his move- ments, fond of outdoor exercise. Certainly no one meeting him for the first time would put him down among the weakly. The first and most conspicuous characteristic of Alexander III. was the solidity — it would be \\Tong to call it the stolidity — of his mental temperament. i ^i^, rl I 1^ ■i ^^ 1 I i 1 'I f I 368 THE LMTED STATE,^ Of EUROPE ( l! He was by no means dull. But he was slow. lie l^ut his foot down like an elephant, and when he put it down he was not quick to take it up again. The characteristic of his son anc^ successor is quite different. The note of his intellect aal temperament is that of extreme alertness. As he is also extremely sympa- the+' . thiS makes him one of the most charming per- I'VMs '■o talk to I have ever met. The two qualities woiL' dh)i) united in General Gordon, wliose nimbleness of mind vva - so excessive that it was somewhat difficult to keep up with him. If, in talking to the late Tsar, you wer-•■= I I! 870 THE UXTTED STATES OF EUROPE M' The bright, clear blue eye; the qnick, sympathetic change of feature; the merry laugh, succeeded in a moment by an expression of noble gravity and of high resolve; the rapidity and grace of his movements, even his curious little expressive shrug of the shoulders, are all glimpses of a character not often found unspoiled by power. Those who know him best appear to love him most, and, naturally enough, c^cli one thinks his only fault is that he is too ready to sacrifice his own convenience and his uwn wishes to oblige the others. A more duti- ful son never sat on a throne. It was, perhaps, carry- ing filial affection a long way when, in order to sus- tain his mother at her mother's grave, the Tsar crossed and re-^rossed Russia from end to end, and that at a time when all Europe was ringing with the crime that cost the Empress of Austria her life. But, consider- ing the conspicuous example of the opposite extreme in the case of the other young Kaiser, the Tsar's tender aifection for his mother, even if carried to excess, is at least a fault on virtue's side. He is singularly happy in his marriage, and the Emperor of Russia will never lack one of the most intelligent and loyal of counsellors while his wife lives. As his parents before him set Europe an example of domestic unity and felicity, so Nicholas IT. maintains the honorable and happy tradition. He is loyal in his friendships, and slow to part with any of those who are in his own or were in his father's service. " Thy own friend and thy father's friend forsake not," is a maxim so : (,» 777 /•; IJMI'IJh'OR OF PEACE 371 inncli fomotton nowadays that it is diiticult to com- i^lain even if in a few instances tliis tenacions loyalty to old servants is carried fnrtlier tlian is altogether to be desired in the interests of the state. All thi>, it may be said, may be true. Xicholas II. may be an ideal son, a perfect husband, a fiuthful friend; he may be fascinating and simple, and his mind may be as alert and sympathetic as you please; but these qualities might all exist in a man who was at the same time a very poor ruler. That, of course, is quite true. ])Ut when Me are discussing his (quali- fications as a ruler it is well to start on a solid founda- tion from his character as a man. Xow let us turn to consider whether or not he has the qualities of a great Tsar. What are these qualities? First of all, the quality needed to rule any men justly, whether they be one hundred and twenty or one hundred and twenty mil- lions, is the possession of an eye to see the essential truth whether in men or things. To speak truly is important, but to see truly is indispensable. lias he insight to pierce to the soul of things? Will he take the trouble to learn the facts, or can he be befooled and deceived by cunningly devised seemings and sub- terfuges? Secondly, after +he capacity to see comes the courage ^o dare to do — a quality which depends partly on tenq)erament, but still more, perhaps, upon the extent to which the man is dominated by the idea of duty. Thirdly, if he has the eye to see and the heart to dare, the next question is whether he has the 373 THE i: SITED (STATES OF EVHOPE I ^1* Btrongth of resolution and tenacity of purpose to per- sist patiently, unwearied by delays, undaunted by dif- ficulties, until, even if alone against the world, he carries out his purpose. Tried by these three testb, I do not think Nicholas II. will be found wanting. He has inherited from his father the hatred for falsehood, and he has added thereto the industry of a singularly active mind almost painfully overwhelmed by the immensity of his re- sponsibilities. Xo one, not even a newspaper editor, is onmiscient; but no one, not even the most consci- entious of able editors, could work harder in mastering his facts. lie has, moreover, the divining faculty of intense sympathy — a gift which opens the way to the heart of many subjects at the door of which mere study would knock in vain. Whether he has the supreme gift of genius in the discerning of the essential truth of a situation we can only judge by what he has already done. So far his reign has been distinguished by three things. First, his frank recognition of the fact that until he found his feet and had acquired some ex- perience in the business of governing it became him to serve his apprenticeship modestly and silently. He may have been helped to practise this commendable self -suppression by the conspicuous absence of that virtue in another young man on a throne. But what- ever helped or hindered, Nicholas II. set to work to learn his business, and studied diligently at the feet of the ablest statesman Russia has produced of late years. Prince Lobanoff's Eastern policy Avas as de- THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 873 testable as Lord Beaconsfield's, but no one denied that he was the supreme intellect in the Ilussian service. The Tsar recognized his ability and profited by his teaching. The second salient feature in his reign was marked by a significant blend of the two conflicting tendencies — the intuitive instinct which enabled him to divine the right thing to be done, and the modest reluctance to impose his will upon the more experienced adminis- trators who thwarted and crippled his policy. I refer to the generous initiative taken by the Tsar in the di- rection of an amelioration of the harshness of the Pol- ish regime as he inherited it from his father. In that he showed true insight and a keen sympathy with sub- jects who WTre suffering from undoubted grievances. But the forces of reaction and the jealousy of a domi- nant bureaucracy, aided perhaps by the somewhat unreasonable expectations of some of the Poles, checked the full realization of his designs. To some this may seem an admission that he was lacking in strength. It would be more just to recognize that he felt he was lacking in experience rather than author- ity, lie was young to the responsibilities of govern- ment. It was better to bide his time. Safely and slow — they stumble who run fast. To have begun his reign by a struggle which would have strained the strength of his father might have been magnificent, but it Avould not have been statesmansliip. It is not till we come to the third act of his reign that we have the first distinct revelation of the kind -f Emperor I I; 374 THE I'SITKD STATES OF EUROPE /: with whom the world has now got to reckon, and from this htarting-point W'e shaL do well to form our estimate. There is one thing abont the Rescript which no one can deny. It was splendidly andacions as well as magnificently ambitions. Wise it may be or foolish, but mean, petty, or unworthy it was not. The re- sponse which it has elicited, and will yet more elicit, througliout the civilized world is sufficient to show with what master hand the young Tsar had struck a note which vibrated in every heart. Here at last we have a nunarch wlio has an eje to see the cancer which is eating into the heart of the modern ^tate, and has the courage boldly to proclaim in the hearing of the world tlie inevitable consequences of allowing the deadly malady to run its course. AVill he have the nerve to stick to it'^ The resolu- tion to put it through? The strength to overpower the immense forces which will be banded together to defeat his generous and most sensible design? That is the crux of the whole question. I do not deny that probably the majority of bystanders openly proclaim their belief, perhaps tlicir hope, that he may fail. Hut, for my ]iart, I lioj^e better things of the young man ^^■llo may inherit somewhat of the iron will as well as the name of his great-grandfather. It is, of course, impossible to ])redlct ^vith any certainty what any human being may do under a test so severe as that to which Xicholas II. is now being exposed. But in forming our estimate of the chances, let us look <>* THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 375 frankly at the position, against wliicli it is easy to see the forces that are arrayed. The immense strength of the most formidable vested interest entrenched in every country, the clotted mass of international jeal- ousies and rival ambitions — in short, the devil and all his agents everywhere are in the field against him, most active, perhaps, where they are least visible, sap- ping and mining for his destruction behind the mask of fair-seeming professions of sympathetic support. But, on the other hand, there are no inconsiderable forces to be counted on. First and foremost, there is the inherent force and strength which lies in the autocracy itself. The solemn vows of consecration at the Coronation are no mere idle form to a mind so highly attuned to the sentiment of duty as that of the present Tsar. Toothing but the continual goadhig of the duty which every Tsar owes to the unnumbered millions who look up to him as their terrestrial Provi- dence could sustain him in liis dailv task, and the same upward thrust will tend to stiffen his resolve and strengthen his will to put this thhig tlu'ough. Secondly, let it never be forgotten that Nicholas was not only born in the purple, but that he has as his sires and grand sires as imperious a series of monarchs as ever swayed a sceptre. Heredity counts for much, and it is not likely that the successor of Alexander I., who sacrificed his capital to deliver Europe from Na- poleon — of Nicholas, who for the lifetime of a genera- tion was practically the Chief Justice of tlie Continent — of Alexander IT., who emancipated the serfs and w 376 TIJE UXITED HTATEH OF EVFOPE liberated Bulgaria — and of Alexander Til., the Peace Keeper of Europe, has got ^o little iron in his blood as to flinch, even though all men forsake him and flee. Having put his hand to the plough, he will drive his furrow straight. Xor will he look ba(-k, any more than did his grandfather in the heroic fight that he made and won for the liberation of the serfs. Thirdlv, those who know him best and have worked with him assure me that the impression — due to his modest self-suppression during the years of his noviti- ate — that he is not a man of strong character is an entire mistake. One of his jMinisters said to me, '' It is true his body is small, but er hat cincn grosseii Muth.'^ "Whether we translate Midh as courage, reso- lution, will, or " go,'' it is not a phrase that would be applied to a weak sovereign. Another Minister said he had seen him in very difficult circumstances put his foot down with such resolution and so insist upon his will being done, that he had some misgivings lest, when he found himself more familiar with affairs, Ixussia might find in him, as in the first Nicholas, rather too much will than too little. Lastly, an inti- mate personal friend, who had known him before his accession, remarked to me, '' People often say that his heart is stronger than his head, and that his will is weakest of all. But I, who have seen hiin closely in many varied circumstances, assure you that of the three I have much more confidence in the strength of his will than I have either in his head or liis heart." I have dwelt at this length upon the personal equa- THE EMPEROR OF PEACE 377 tion becnnse it is the most important of all the factors ill this probleiii, I think I have said enough to justify mv belief that Xicholas II. is no unworthv eliainpion of that war against war, his proclamation of which has brought such a flood of new life to the hopes of man- kind. But there are two tliini>s to l)e taken into ac- count — two things and one other — of which here I need not speak — in estimating the chances of success. One is that the Emperor is by ik^ means without power- ful lieutenants in his Champaign of Peace. A trium- virate of ^Ministers — as remarkable a group of men as are to be found to-dav in anv European country — are heart and soul with the Tsar. One is (Jeneral Kouro- patkin, that brilliant and successful soldier whose great ambition as ]\Iinister of War is to render effect- ive assistance to his sovereign in arresting the growth of armaments. The second is "Af. Witte, who has re- formed the currency, rehal)ilitated the finances, and established so drastic a system of liquor legislation that practically all sale of drink to be consumed on the premises has been abolished throughout the most of the Empire. The third, and perhaps the most imp(.r- tant of the three, is Count Lamsdorff, the working head of the Foreign Office, of which Count Muravieff is the genial and ornamental chief. Count Lamsdorff, the pu])il and successor of ]\r. de Giers, is the living incarnation of all the archives and the tradition? of the Foreign Office. The hard-work- ing f^ave of the Dcjiartiiioit \ hich he directs, he is said iieitlier to sleep nor to rest, but to toil night and 378 THE UNITEL .^TATE^^ CF EiJtOPF tk i i day with inexhaustible energy at liis desk until he has beconie a veritable monster of diplomatic lore, the past master in all that pertains to the action of Rnssia be- yond her frontiers. None of these three ^statesmen are amateurs, visionaries, entlmsiasts, or voungsters. They have all grown more or less gray in the practical and arduous task of administering the affairs of a great empire. AVith such counsellors, Nicholas II. need not be afraid to speak up to the enemies in the gates, and even to those foes which ev^ery man finds in his own household. I'he second factor to be remembered is the immense power that may be called into being in support of the Tsar's initiative if the masses of the Continent, at present distrustful and apathetic, should take heart from demonstrations of British and American enthu- siasm, and unite in demanding that something should be done. It is only occasionally that the democracy can act with effect, but this is one of those times. But what should be -^ ,:."^ should be done quickly. Nicholas li. ...ii never be a Peter the Great. He is not a Titan, nor has he the energy of a demon. He works hard, laboriously going through all the innu- merable State papers submitted to liim from each of the departments; conscientiously endeavoring to ar- rive at a right judgment upon each question on which he is expected to say Yea or Nay; but there is about him nothing of tlie Berserker fire and fury which Idazed in Peter. The Emperor i^- a man full of gener- ous impulses, to which it is his pleasure to give free TUB EMPEROR OF PEACE 379 plpv; but he is a modest man, and when he flndb '\\h desires thwarted hy counsellors who had grown g .'iv before he was out of the nursery, he hesitates at s\. ^ep- inc; them to one side. The very keenness of his i- lol lectual synii:>athy tends to make him less dashing, less authoritatiye than he would be were his perceptions more blunted. lie understands so well his own linii tations; he realizes so painfidly day by day how impos- sible it is for any single human brain adequately to ap- preciate all the elements in the factors on wliich it is his hard destiny constantly to pronounce an authoritative opinion, that there is in him none of the down-thump, cut-and-thrust, bludgeon-like method of bbint(n-- niinded mortals. Hence what we may expect is that he will constantly endeayor to aim at the highest ideals both of Peace, of Liberty, and of Progress; but y.dien, in the pursuit of those ideals, he comes up again^f too solid obstacles of ai)athy and vis hiertloe and ingrained prejudices ixi the case of his advisers anu ubje^ lS, he M'ill not risk eyerything in order to g:t'n son-rching. He will push in the right direction, thr.uffh he will smash no crockery in order to attain his ciids. Such, at least, is the impression I f'ormed from what I.-3 known of his reign and of the self-revelation wliiclf he af- forded me in the course of our conyersation. Tlis is a fine nature, whose failures M-ill be chiefly due to its yirtues, rather than to its faults. This disposition may qualify the Emperor better for the duties which he has undertaken as leader in th(} cause of Peace than had he been as masterful, say, aa If . i r 11 A ■ id? ^ 1 380 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE his near neighbor, the German Emperor. There are questions in which it was necessary not to lead but to drive; but this question of peace and war is emphatic- ally not one for handling with a high hand. The very delicacy and modesty, the reserve and the shrink- ing from violent expressions of self-will, which more or less impede the progress of necessary reforms in the internal administration, may be the best qualifications for success in an attempt to induce the nations to agree to some method of settling disputes other than that by war. Ilis impatient desire to get something done, and his utter indifference to what it is, so long as it is some- thing practical and something that can be carried into effect at once, are very characteristic of the man. He is no pedant, he has no cut-and-dried scheme for in- augurating a ": nllennium. What he sees clearly is the drift to the abyss. What he longs for most is that something should be done, and that at once, in order to arres't that drift. Further than that he does not go. He has strong humanitarian prejudices against the use of explosive bullets and all the later manifestations of scivjntiiic deviltry in the art of war. His grandfather before him succeeded in inducing Europe to put a veto upon explosive rifle bullets, and he would be very glad to carry the same principle a step further and abolish the use of the Dum Dum and other such bullets, wliicli seem to him needless aggravations of the lior- I'ors of war; but he has no preconceived prescription drown up to im.pose upon the Conference. He would probably say, if he were asked, that because he took I i ^BH^BmIK. "t^mm^M ■^Jk/aviLTA ^^^^^K^^^^i H? - '^ ' ^ k H0M^^V/.M ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^H I I i II Hj I \' Jij fully plied with cold douches of scepticism, ridicule, and scorn. The diplomatists and the sovereigns and the ministers of the Old World have no faith in the humanitarian enthusiasm of the young Emperor. Even among his own Ministers there are many who have little sympathy with his chivalrous crusade of peace. But Nicholas II. means business, and he is going through with this business as best he can, with such support as he can command. If there be any real enthusiasm or humanity anywhere in the New World it ought to be easily evoked, and strongly ex- pressed in support of his valorous declaration of war against the ruinous armaments of the modern world. Of one thing all Americans may be sure. The more enthusiastically they make manifest and effective tin ir response to the appeal of the young Emperor the better it will be for the future relations of the two countries. The United States, after the Russian Empire, is the greatest human aggregate that will be represented at the Conference. If the American delegate is well chosen, and he is backed by the hearty and visible man'f estation of popular support, the New World may even sooner than was anticipated wield a dominating influence in the decisions of the Areopagus of Europe. Before setting out on my tour of observation and interrogation I had the advantage of discussing the subject with the present Secretary of State in Presi- dent McKinley's Cabinet, and since then I have en- joyed exceptional opportunities of ascertaining the views of American statesmen and diplomatists on the AMERICA AND RUSSIA 403 and subject of the proposed Conference on disarmament. The Hotel Continental last winter in Paris was virtu- ally a semi-detached annex of the Capitol at Washing- ton. It was the headquarters of the Peace Commis- sioners, who were specially appointed by the President to repre ent the Government of the United States in the one supreme question of foreign policy before the citizens of the Republic. Together with the personnel of the Exhibition Commission, which was also located in the Continental, the American element was so strongly represented that anyone sojourning at the hotel might easily have imagined himself in Chicago or Xew York. Besides the Peace Commissioners, who included in their number Mr. Judge Day, late Secretary of State at Washington, and Mr. Whitelaw Eeid, former Ambassador at Paris, and late special representative of the United States at the Queen's Jubilee, there were at Paris during my sojourn in that city General Draper, the American Ambassador to Italy, and Mr. Straus, the American Minister to Tur- key. As I have also seen the American Ambassadors in Germany and in Russia, the American Ministers in Vienna and Constantinople, I probably had better op- portunities than if I had gone to Washington of ascer- taining the opinion of the best American authorities upon the attitude of the United States in relation to the Tsar's proposals. President McKinley received the Tsar's invitation while he was preoccupied in completing the arrange- ments tor the dispatch of the Peace Commissioners. 404 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE i ■ r, 1.. r, v- il it' • V 'iiij The task of making a definite treaty of peace with Spain naturally took precedence in his Cabinet of the wider question raised by the Russian Rescript. His reply was, however, immediate and emphatic. He welcomed the Imperial proposals, expressed hearty sympathy with their object, and announced his inten- tion to appoint a delegate when the time came for the Conference to assemble. Having thus dispatched that business, the President returned to the more pressing question of instructing his Commissioners as to the terms on which peace should be made with Spain. In the press of the United States, with few excep- tions, there was a general chorus of acclamation. As one of the ablest members of the staff of the Peace Commission expr'^ssed it, " The Message passed over the w^iole country like a great wave of healing balm." Here and there among the more aggressive advocates of expansion there were semi-audible murmurs of re- sentment at the Tsar's suggestion, as if the autocrat of the Old World were guilty of an impertinence in suggesting to the N^ew World that excessive expendi- ture on armies and navies was an evil to be shunned rather than a boon to be welcom^ed; but these remon- strances only tended to bring into clearer relief the national complacency with which Americans received the Rescript. " The Tsar," they said, " has at last recognized the soundness of the principles upon which Americans have been acting all these years. He may preach disarmament now, and he does well. But w^e liave practised it all our lives. The greatest disarma- AMERICA AND RUSSIA 405 ment ever seen in the world's history took place at the close of the Civil War, when a million veterans laid down their arms and resumed their peaceful avoca- tions. The doctrine of the Rescript is sound Ameri- canism. AVho would not rejoice to find American principles, in making the tour of the world, have even converted the Imperial Master of the largest army ever organized by man ? " The American Peace Commissioners, like the nation which they represent, were by no means disposed to take a cynical or pessimist view of the famous Re- script. One of these, who was consulted by President McKinley on the day the Rescript arrived at Washing- ton, told me that he had advised the President to back it up enthusiastically. " That is what I intend to do," he said was Mr. McKinley's answe^'. As President McKinley reminded Count Cassini whon that eminent diplomatist presented his credentials at Washington, " Cordial esteem and unbroken friendship have ever subsisted between Russia and the United States." It is, indeed, a consoling thought that one great sec- tion of the English-speaking family has ever kept it- self free from the delirium of Russophobia which has so often played such havoc with the wits of the older branch. As for the practical good that may come out of it, the .A.mericans are much more sanguine than the French or the Germans. As Senator Davis, one of the Peace Commissioners now at Paris, remarked, " I should not be at all surprised if very material good S II ' 'I 11 400 77//; UNITED HTATEH OF El ROPE ) ■J ' 1 ■ i ) ' i t 1 . .< i \ i! i ■ iil:? 4 4 ft I came out of it. It might not result in the reduction of standing armies, but it would be a step towards that goal, and it might have side results which wov^ ' of the greatest value." But when from discussing the Tsar's proposals as they relate to other nations, Americans pass to discuss them as affecting themselves, there is an almost unani- mous opinion that they don't apply. " They don't concern us," they say. " We are disarmed already. We should need to multiply our standing army straightaway tenfold before we could even begin to come within the range of a disarmament proposition." This is reasonable enough from one point of view. The standing army of the United States, as Mr. Secre- tary Hay pointed out, is not a standing army in the European sense at all. It is a mere frontier police, and miserably inadequate even at that. Twenty-four thousand armed men as the military quota of a nation of eighty million — to talk about disarmament under such circumstances is absurd. The United States, if the Conference had been summoned before the recent war, might fairly have entered the International Par- liament as the only Power without an army in the "world. But the Conference proposal did not precede the war. It followed it, and may possibly have been sug- gested by it. On this point there are at least three different opinions. One is that the extraordinary and startling ease with which the Americans destroyed the power of Spain suggested tc the Tsar the possibility AMERICA AND RUiiiilA 407 that other nations might be tempted to think lightly of the terrible eontingeney of war, and so led him to take the field on behalf of peace. A second is that the Tsar feared the impetus which the war might give to the armaments of the United States, which would of course immediately lead to an increase of other armies and navies. The third — a notion more American than European — is that as the Americans have shown wars can be waged and won without huge standing armies, the Tsar thought Europe might at any rate reduce the burden of its armaments, and rely more upon American methods in the future. We need not attach much importance to any or to all of these sur- mises, but merely content ourselves with noting that as a matter of fact the proposal for a conference finds the United States at the beginning of a vast increase of its army and its navy. It is only right to say that this, which seems to European observers as absolutely inevitable as the re- sult of the American annexations, or virtual annexa- tions, is by no means accepted as a settled thing by some of the soberest and most experienced of Amer- ican statesmen. I confess that I have been amazed by the resolute scepticism expressed in many quarters as to the certainty of an immense increase in the American w^ar budget. " Do not be so confident," I have been told again and again, " that we are going to build a gigantic navy, and still less that we are going to raise a great standing army. The sober second thoughts of the American nation will decide that 408 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE I. %^ I ■ I- I' M' question, and the last word has hy no means been spoken." How it will be possible to restore order in Cuba, to say nothing of the Philippines, without a standing army four or five times as large as that which existed before the war, is not apparent, but that does not con- cern these optimists. Even if, as one American officer assured me, they have to maintain an army of 75,000 men in Cuba for five years, before they can restore order and make the insurgents refrain from looting and brigandage, at the end of five years the army can be disbanded, as the Grand Army of the Republic waa disbanded at the close of the Civil War. The idea of a large standing army is repugnant to the best men in the United States. And here it may be noted as by no means one of the least of the many advantages resulting from the Imperial Rescript, the powerful influence which it is undoubtedly exerting in the crys- tallization of American opinion upon the burning question of expansion over sea. As Mr. Cleveland reminded his fellow-citizens last June, " N^ever before in our history have we been beset with temptations so dangerous as those which now whisper in our ears al- luring words of conquests and expansion, and point out to us fields bright with the glory of war." It is a grave question, he added, " whether the cheapening of our estimate of the value of peace, by dwelling upon war and warlike preparation, is calculated to improve the quality of our national character." But the ex- President is a " back number " and a Democrat, and N «t AMERfCA AXD Ui'SSlA 400 his warning words were discounted. It is altogether another matter when tlie War Lord of the Old World, America's friend and ally, takes up the parable and repeats in the ears of every citizen of the Great Repub- lic the solemn warning as to the ultimate result of that policy of arnuinients on the verge of which the United States appears to be hesitating. L^'fore the war the estimates for the army of the United States for 1898 figure in the returns as £12,- 000,000. But nearly £3,000,000 of this was spent in improving harbors and rivers, an expenditure entered under the Military Department, but which is obviously no part of a war budget. By Acts of Congress, it was strictly laid down that there shall be no more than 25,000 enlisted men at any one time in the American Republic. This was the figure fixed in 1875, and although the population has nearly doubled since then, the quota remained fixed as in 1875 down to the out- break of the present war. It is obvious that with 25,000 men it will be impossible to hold Porto Rico, police Cuba, and conquer the Philippines. The Americans must immediately, even although it may be temporarily, increase their army. This, however, will in no way jeopardize the one practical proposal that seems likely to emanate from the Conference — the calling of a halt to increased armaments, or the stereotyping of the statns quo for a term of five years. For the military siatus quo in the United States at present is not the status quo ante helium, but the status quo of to-day. President McKinley might ri M ,■ , ■ i i Iff 1 1 i ■ ! ■ i ■^' ■\ i.' ■ t. 1 410 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE safely agree not to increase the American army beyond the figure at which it was standing at the moment the Tsars proposal reached him. It is, indeed, safe to say that his is the only Government in the world which will actually disband a considerable proportion of its armed forces before the end of the century. The question of the navy is more serious. As a military Power, the United States can honestly claim that it has set an example to the Old World. As a naval Power it seems to be following as fast as possible in the steps of the European nations. Its naval ex- penditure, as estimated for 1898, before the war, was £6,800,000. This was the largest of any nation ex- cepting Britain, France, and Russia. It is now to be increased, possibly enormously increased, so as to bring it up almost to the level of the expenditure of France. " We want a mighty navy," thunders the New Yorh Journal, " to protect us from attack and to enforce respect for the Monroe doctrine on the part of the land-stealing, colonizing monarchies of Eu- rope." Three first-class battleships have been ordered, more are to follow. Where is it to stop? r ' ■ m CHAPTEE II COXSTANTIXOPLE Judged by results, the Spanish war has made mighty little return for a prodigious expenditure compared with the returns already realized and to be realized from the peaceful campaign which America is waging in the Ottoman Empire. By an expenditure of hun- dreds of millions of dollars and the sacrifice of over 2,000 men the United States has succeeded in ousting the moribund sovereignty of Spain from a couple of islands near her own shores and of securing the right to shoulder " the white man's burden " in the Philip- pines. The results achieved, small though they be, represent probably the best and quickest dividend ever earned by modern war. Compare this result with those achieved by the Americans who for the last thirty years have been patiently, silently laboring for the regeneration of that vast compost of w^'ecked kingdoms, principalities and nationalities called the Ottoman Empire. Thirty years ago a couple of Americans, Christian men, with heads on their shoulders, settled in Turkey and set about teaching on American metliods the rising youth of the East in an institution called the Robert College. ' ' '?! 1 i • . ^■J. < ' l.ll ■ I Jll 412 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE They have never from that day to this had at their command a greater income than 30,000 or 40,000 dol- lars a year. They have taken no hand in politics. They have abstained from identifying themselves with any sect, nationality or party. They have stuck to their appointed task, and they are still sticking. They have insisted that every student within their walls shall be thoroughly trained on the American prin- ciples, which, since they were imported by the men of the Mayfoiver, have well-nigh made the tour of the world. They taught all these students five languages, but they never hesitated to proclaim that, though tliey spoke with all the tongues under heaven, it was but foolishness unless the moral and spiritual character of the student was trained and moulded by religious men. Moral development, spiritual discipline, is the most essential part of education. The object of college edu- cation is the development of the faculties and the for- mation of character. That was their line, and they have stuck to it now for thirty-four years. With what result? That American college is to- day the chief hope of the future of the millions who inhabit the Sultan's dominions. They have 200 stu- dents in the college to-day, but they have trained and sent out into the world thousands of briglit, brainy young fellows, who have carried the leaven of the American town meeting into all provinces of the Otto- man Empire. Robert College men are turning up everywhere. If the good work goes on the alumni of this American institution will be able to supply the :' »»1 at their )00 dol- politics. ^es with tuck to They r walls n prin- he men r of the giiages, ^'h they ,vas but acter of as men. le most go cdu- tlie for- id they e is to- ns who !00 stil- led and brainv of the le Otto- ling" lip mini of ply the [A i ' ■ ( tp 1 > 1 CONSTANTINOPLE 413 personnel of the civilized administration which must some day supersede the barbaric horror that is at present misnamed the Government of Tiirkey. The one great thing done in the making of States in the last quarter of the century was the creation of the Bulgarian Principality. But the Bidgarian Prin- cipality, the resurrection of the Bulgarian nationality, although materially achieved by the sword of the liberating and avenging hordes of Russia, was due primarily to the Robert College. It was the Amer- icans who sowed the seed. It was the men of Robert College who took into Bulgaria the glad news of a good time coming when Bulgaria would be free. When the Turks, scared by the propaganda of liberty, descended in savage wrath upon the helpless people, with sword and flame and worse than bestial lusts, to eradicate the new-born national aspirations, it w^as the Americans who brought the whole horrible truth to the light of day. Mr. Disraeli, then Premier of Eng- land, lied about it in his place in Parliament, not even scrupling to falsify dispatches and betray the confi- dence of Parliament in order to shield the Turk. All was in vain: Robert College men were on the spot. Their chief was in constant communication with the Ambassadors and journalists of Constantinople. They found in Mr. Pears, an English barrister of high stand- ing, a correspondent of the Daily Neivs, a man fearless and capable enough to stand the brunt of making the awful exposure. "What followed is a matter of history. The revelation of the truth about the Bulgarian mas- ;» TT W 1 i i h 1, i ',' n • Ml \. 1 I , li' .li- lt 414 THE UNITED STATES OF EL HOPE sacres shattered as by dynamite the traditional policy of England. Mr. Oladstone sprang into the field. The Russian people, moved to its depth by the stories of the sniferings of their brethren, could not be re- strained. The Tsar-liberator carried the Russian army in triumph to the very gates of Stamboul. Xor did they return till by the Treaty of San Stefano they had created that Bulgarian Principality which had been dreamed out on the astral plane by the students of the American college. "When the Russian army of liberation returned home after the peace was signed, they passed down the Bosphorus, and as each huge transport, crowded w4th the war-worn veterans of the Balkan battlefields, steamed past the picturesque Crag of Roumeli Ilissar, on which the Robert College sits enthroned, they one and all did homage to the institution which had nuide Bulgaria possible, by cheering lustily and causing the military bands to play American airs. It was the tribute of the artificer in blood and iron to the archi- tects on whose designs they had builded the Bulgarian State. But the influence of the American college did not stop there. When the Constitutional Assembly met at Tirnova to frame the constitution for the new-born state, it was the Robert College graduate who suc- ceeded in giving the new constitution its extreme democratic character, and when, after the Russians left, the Bulgarians began to do their own governing, it was again the American-trained men who displayed A jiroi UlK'O \s^ M. OEVESIIOFF A ])r()miiicnt ini'inltiT of tlio Iiultriiiian Sobraiiie I'lUNCK I'KUDINAXD of IJul'Tuiiu id not |ly met w-born LO SUC- :treme iissians ■rninj?, [played M. ZAXKOFF < Mio of the cliii'f workers for Biil.t,'ariiin Iiide- jH-ndi'iice ill ISTS DIt. VAMvOLOKF President of the Uulirariiiii Sobmnie K If i If . 1 i '■''!' = ! ■ 'A i 1 ■M i ; i i, ' ;i';i -■ f Ij '^ CONSTAXTiyOPLE 415 the spirit of independence which baffled and angered the Russian Generals. From that time to this day the Robert College has been a nursery for Bulgarian statesmen. One Robert College man, when I visited Sofia, was Prime Minister of Bulgaria and another was Bulgarian Minister at Constantinople, while a third, one of the ablest of them, was Bulgarian Min- ister at xVthens. So marked indeed has been the in- fluence of this one institution, there are some who say that of all the results of the Crimean War nothing was of such permanent importance as the one fact that it attracted to Constantinople a plain American citizen from New York. The influence of the United States in the East is by no means confined to Robert College. There are other institutions founded by Americans at Constanti- nople which are working quite as well as the Robert College; but as they educate girls instead of boys, they will not make their political influence felt until the sons of the students come to man's estate. But it is not only at Constantinople Americans are at work. They are at the present moment almost the only people who are doing any good for humanity in Asiatic Turkey. The German Emperor, who has fraternized with the Assassin and walked arm-in-arm with the Infidel, has proclaimed his divine mission to protect the Christians of the East, whom his friend and host has been massa- cring by the thousand for the la^t four years. But the only protection the poor unfortunate Christians receive ILL I 'If ■H ' i t . r it i:i' 416 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE is from English-speaking men. I grieve to say it, but it is for the most part quite true that until the other day England did no good to any one in Asia Minor. Of late the English people have wakened up and are now sending scores of thousands of pounds in charity to that country. But the only real good which the Eng- lish did in these regions for many years was confined to this — the British consuls helped the American mis- sionaries when they got into difficulty. People speak as if the Anglo-American alliance was a peaceful dream to be realized in the remote future. If they lived in Asia Minor they would discover that it is a very practical working factor in the daily life of mil- lions of men. How many American citizens are aware, I wonder, that from the slopes of Mount Ararat all the way to the shores of the blue iEgean Sea Amer- ican missionarit i have scattered broadcast over all the distressful land the seed of American principles? The Russians know it, and regard the fact with anything but complacency. When (General Moselloff, the di- rector of the foreign faiths within the Russian Empire, visited Etchmiadzin, in the confines of Turkish Ar- menia, the Armenian patriarch spread before him a map of Asia Minor which was marked all over with American colleges, American churches, American schools and American missions. Tliey are busy every- where, teaching, preaching, begetting new life in these Asiatic races. They stick to their Bible and their spelling-book, but every year an increasing number of Armenians and other Orientals issue from the i n' •ji»' ill J! COXl^TANTIXOPLE 417 American schools familiar with the principles of the Declaration of Independence and the fundamental doctrines of the American Constitution. And so the leaven is spreading throughout the whole land. Of course, such new wine caimot be poured into the very old bottles of the Turkish provinces without making itself felt. The Armenians, a thrifty and studious race, soon became " swell-headed." What Bulgarians had done they thought Armenians could do. As the Robert College men had created an in- dependent Bulgaria, they, in turn, would show that they could create an independent Armenia. So they set to work; but, alas! though they did their part of the work bravely enough, Russia, this time, was in no mood to come to their rescue. So the Sultan fell upon them in his wrath and delivered them over to the Bashi-Bazouk and the Kurd. What followed is ^vrit- ten in letters of blood and fire across the recent history of the East. But the end is not yet. The American missionaries, who took no part in the abortive insurrection, were not as a rule much molested. They are working on, teach- ing, preaching, sowing the seed day by day, creating the forces which will in time overturn the Turkish government and regenerate Armenia. The Turk knows it, and is longing for the time when he may have it out with the giaour from beyond the sea. But behind the American missionary stands the British consul, and the Sultan fears to give the signal for extir- pation. Even as it is, the American missionaries have 27 , h T ' I f 1 1 ' 1 m 1 / *i,i i' I i ■I ■ ' P ' VI .i J J i'l !';]■ \v ' \ ■' li MN Ifl 418 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE not come off scot-free. Oscar Straus, the American Minister, has to collect some 100,000 dols. due as com- pensation for the destruction of American property during the recent troubles. The money is yet to bo paid. It cost the Sultan 3,000,000 dols. to entertain his friend the Kaiser. How can he spare 100,000 to compensate the pestilent American? When I was in Constantinople, ]\[r. Straus had not yet presented his little bill, but he was looking forward with considerable interest to the opportunity of having a plain straight talk with the Padishah, and explaining to him the ruin which would inevitably overwhelm the Ottoman Empire if he persisted in his present evil ways, and particularly if he failed to compensate the American Government for the destruction of the property of American subjects, who were laboring in a mission of mercy and education among his people. Since I returned home I have seen statements in news- papers to the effect that the Sultan has refused to pay the money, the reason no doubt being that, for the moment, he has no spare cash in the Treasury, Ptua that his officials are going unpaid. This brings up an in- teresting question. At present, the Americans are preoccupied with the task of providing for the future of the Philippines; and being concerned with the ques- tion whether they shall not embark upon a policy of Imperial adventure in Eastern Asia, they turn a deaf ear to all talk about their responsibilities at the West of the same Continent. Nevertheless, there are few things more probable than that it may be reserved to COySTANTIXOPLE 419 the United States to acliieve results in the near East far greater even than those which Achiiiral Dewey ef- fected when he destroyed the S]ianish ileet at Manihi. I do not suppose that the difficulty will come to a head over the mere claim for compensation for the destruc- tion of missionary buildings. Sooner or later the Turk would pay. Damages which can be assessed in dollars can be settled with dollars, and it will not bo for a mere money claim that the Sultan will disappear from the Bosphorus. AVhat is likely to hapi)en is far more serious. Long ago, when I was a boy, I remem- ber being nnich impressed with a passage in Cobden's political writings, in which, after describing the deso- lation that prevailed in the Garden of the East owing to the desolating despotism of the Turks, he asked whether it would not be enormously for the benefit of the world in general, and of British trade in particular, if the whole of the region now blighted by the presence of the Turk could be handed over to an American syndicate or company of N^ew England merchants, who would be entrusted with the administration of the country, with instructions to run it on business prin- ciples. " Who can doubt," said the great free-trader, " that if such an arrangement could be made, before long the desert would blossom as a rose? Great cen- tres of busy industry \vould arise in territories that were at one time the granary and treasury of the world." This beatific vision of Manchester-thum has never ceased to haunt my memory. But until recent times, I have never seen how this excellent American i ™ F I 'J i ' Wm ;•■' t i \ 420 T£rf; UNITED STATES OF EUROPE i 1 .<■'! i 1 ' ' i 1 1 1 1 I 1 \ ■i: 1 i' ' 1 , 1 ( 1 i ' !• i * . \\ " I', syndicate was to get Turkey into its pocket. Gradu- ally, however, with the decay of Turkish authority, with the expansion of American ambitions, and above all, with the development of the American fleet. Cob- den's dream seems to me to be in a fair way of being realized. When I was in Paris, Senator Frye reminded me that he had done his utmost at Washington, two years ago, in order to induce the American Government to send some warships to Constantinople for the purpose of supporting the representations of the other Powers concerning the Armenian atrocities. lie failed, and it is now only a matter for ingenious speculation whether, if Senator Frye's project had been put through, the advent of a strong American fleet in the Mediterranean might not have rendered the Spanish war unnecessary. Certainly, such a demonstration of American naval strength could hardly have failed to have impressed profoundly the imagination of Europe ; and Spain might have thought twice, and even thrice, before resisting the demands for the pacification of Cuba. The Americans have never recognized the right of the Turk to close the Sea of " armora or the Black Sea to their fighting ships. i^'hey hold that they have the :' 'glit of navigating all open seas, and !liey deny that the Turks have any right whatever to apply the principle of the mare clausum to the Sea of Marmora. Senator Frye made a good fight in 1890 for intervention on behalf of the Armenians, and he was supported by a large and very influential section 1 1 CONS TANTINOPLE 421 of the American people. Indeed, it is simply true that a part of the agitation in favor of the liberation of Cuba was really due to the determination of some of the Americans to agitate for American intervention in Turkey. One of the most zealous and public- spirited of men, whose writings in favor of the Ar- menians and of the Cubans have been circulated in innumerable newspapers from the Atlantic to the Pacific, told me quite frankly that he had gone into the Cuban business in order to fauiiliarize the Amer- ican mind with the idea of the liberation of o})presscd nationalities. " AVhen I found,'' he said, " that 1 could no longer obtain a hearing for my demands for intervention in Armenia, I took up the cause of Cuba, and wrote voluminously, wherever I could get a hear- ing, in favor of intervention in behalf of the victim:^ of Spanish tyranny; but all the while I had in my mind the cause of Armenia. The principles were the same ; the need was even greater in Armenia than in Cuba, only in Cuba we had the power and the obligation to intervene single-handed. Therefore, I thought, if we made a beginning w^th Cuba, we would have estab- lished the step]>ing-stone from which we could pass over into Turkey." My friend wrote me as soon as the treaty of peace was signed an enthusiastic letter, and said, " By the grace of God the horrible tyranny of Spain has been cleared out of Cuba and Porto Rico, and I hope from the Philippines. Now for Armenia." The American Pepublic has been too nuich ab- sorbed in the discussion of the responsibilities which t M(i 422 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE .'11 il'^ \\ln t 'ti t'V ',1 1 1 ut 0. H she has newly acquired in the Philippines to bestow any attention upon the fate of the Ottoman Empire. But there is no doubt at all that the situation is much more serious for Turkey than it was before the United States had proved by the actual test of experience the efficiency of their fleet as a fighting machine. It is unnecessary to add anything to Avhat has been said in the foregoing pages to show that the Turk has good cause enough to regard with misgivings, to put it mildly, the work of American missionaries in the Ottoman Empire. I can never forget the intense vehemence with which a friend of the Sultan, him- self, I regret to say, an American by birth, expressed his sentiments. I had remarked that I did not believe the Eastern Question would ever be settled until the Turks impaled an American missionary. The vehe- mence with which he blurted out, " I entirely agree with you," let in a ray of vivid light upon the senti- ments prevailing in the Yildiz Kiosk. If this man who, although a Philo-Turk, was nevertheless an American, and in some ways a representative Amer- ican, could give such heart-felt expression to a longing desire for vengeance on the American missionary, it is easy to imagine Avith what sentiments these excellent citizens of th(^ Kepublic are regarded by the Padishah. But, of course, when I spoke of the impalement of an American being the solution of the Eastern Question, I meant it in a sense entireh' different from that in which he had responded. It seems to me the most natural thing in the world that some fine day there i^l ^ CONSTANTINOPLE 4?« agree senti- will be one of those savage outbreaks of religious or imperial fanaticism which will lead some unhanged ruffian who has been decorated by the Sultan, or some Kurdish chief, to take it into his head to avenge the wrongs of Islam on the nearest American mission sta- tion. He will sweep down at the head of his troops upon a school or manse. The building will be given to the flames, the American missionary will be flung into the burning building to perish in the fire, while his wife and daughters will be carried off to the harem of the pasha. I^othing could be more natu- ral or more in accordance with the ordinary prac- tice in these savage regions. There is no available force to defend the American settlers from their assail- ants. In these remote regions it is often possible to conceal a crime for months by the very completeness with which the victims have been extirpated. But, of course, after a time, whether it be weeks or whether it be months, the fate of that mission station would be known. The story of the great massacre, when the missionary was burned alive in his own flaming school- house, would leak out, and then, in the natural course of things, some enterprising newspaper man would make his way to the scene of the outrage, would verify the facts, would ascertain the whereabouts of the un- fortunate American women, and possibly return to the outside world bearing with him a pathetic and urgent appeal from the captives for rescue from the Turkish harem. This outrage, after all, is nothing more than the kind 1 1 \ 1, i « ( .! ■ I 'I < I vvj 424 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE of things to which the Christian races of the East have had to submit from generation to generation. Their victims have been as white, as Christian, and as wretched as those whose imaginary doom at the hands of the Turk or Kurd I have been describing. But in the latter case the girls, with their devoted mother, who have been subjected to the worst outrage at the hands of their captors, would differ from the Arme- nians in that they speak English. That one difference would be vital. On the day on which that smart newspaper man wrote out his story of the fate of those American women — wrote it out in vivid characters, bright and clear before the eyes of the whole English- speaking race — the doom of the Ottoman Empire would be sealed. There are eighty millions of human beings in the United States, all of whom speak English, and each one of whom would feel that the imprisoned women were even as his own sisters. On the day on which the news of their incarceration and outrage reached the Christian Ilepublic of the West, the whole of the eighty millions who inhabit the invulnerable fortress which N^ature has established between the fosses of the Atlantic and the Pacific would start to their feet as one man, and from the whole continent would rise but one question and one imperative command. The question would be: "Where is Dewey? AVhere is Sampson? Where are our invincible ironclads, which in two battles swept the flag of Spain from the seas? Why are our great captains roosting round upon their ii bi C » P li I CONSTANTINOPLE 425 battle-ships, while such horrors are inflicted upon women from America? " And after that inquiry would come quick and sharp the imperious mandate: " To the Dardanelles! To the Dardanelles! " In three weeks the commanders who shattered the Spanish fleet at Manila, and drove the ironclads of Admiral Cervera in blazing ruin upon the coast of Cuba, would appear off the Dardanelles to exact in- stant and condign punishment for the outrage inflicted upon their country-folk. ^ov would they stop at tlie Dardanelles. The Stars and Stripes would soon fly over the waters of the Sea of Marmora, and the thunder of the American guns would sound the funeral peal of the Ottoman dynasty. No power on earth would ])e able to arrest the advance of the American ships, nor, indeed, is there any Power in Europe that would even attempt to do so. The patience of Christendom has long been almost worn out, and Europe would probably maintain an expectant attitude while the death-blow was struck at the crumbling relics of the Ottoman Power. When the Sultan had fled from Stamboul, leaving his capital to the violence of the mob, the Americans, to save Constantinople from the fate of Alexandria, Avould be compelled to o' ?upy the city of Constantino, and, as our experience has long shown, it is much easier to occupy than it is to e/acuate. AVhen once " Old Glory " was hoisted over the citv of Stamboul, who could say when it would be hauled down? Of course, the Americans would protest that they had no inten- t 'SB { I ; i 'i ii ' I I! 'I '\\ ' <' i; I m THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE tion of remaining there, but the necessity of postpon- ing the European war, which would probably break out when the key of the Dardanelles and of the Bos- phorus- came to be scrambled for, would compel them to remain at least for a time, and every day that the Stars and Stripes flew over the gates of the Euxine would tend to familiarize Europe with the idea that, of all possible solutions, the indefinite occupation of Constantinople by the Americans might be open to fewer objections than any other conceivable solution. Thus, at any moment, owing to what may be regarded as a normal incident in the methods of Ottoman mis- rule, Cobden's dream might be fulfilled, and the great Republic of the West become the agent for restoring prosperity and peace to the desolated East. The following special telegram from Washington in the New York World of August 9, 1898, is an interesting confirma- tion of the views set forth above. It is headed " We may Bombard Constantinople," and it runs thus: " Minister Angeil was appointed by President McKinley vvith the sole object of having him force the Sultan to pay the claims of the missionaries. It was the intention of the President to even go to the extent of making a naval demonstration be- fore Constantinople to force compliance with his demands. Immediately after Minister Angell's arrival in Turkey the navy of the United States was being rendezvoused in Eastern waters for the purpose of permitting the American Minister to enforce his demands. While this movement was in progress the Cuban situation became acute, and the con- templated demonstration was postponed until a more aus- picious period. Minister Angeil frankly informed the Porte that unless the claims were paid the United States would endeavor to force payment. He was also told of the con- templated demonstration and the cause of its postponement. CONSTANTINOPLE 4S7 The Sultan t len promised to see that the claims were paid. The matter has been in this shape for months. The bullc of the property destroyed consisted of mission buildings, and there has been a powerful influence at work to secure' just compensation. It is now said that unless the claims are paid by Turkey a naval demonstration vill be made against the Ottoman Empire just as soon as the exigencies of the pres- ent war will permit. Admiral Sampson, who will be in com- mand of the European squadron, which is to be formed after the beginning of peace negotiations, will be sent to Con- stantinople to intimidate the Turks." i 1 1 r t ! 1 I', I li CHAPTER III i : FROM THE CAPITAL OF THE OLD WORLD t i)' I i: The King of Italy opened the Italian Parliament on November iTtli. Inside the Chamber, originally built for the C^iria Innocenziana, or Papal Tribunal, but which for twenty-eight years has been the Cham- ber of Deputies of United Italy, the scene Avas nmcli the same as that which is witnessed at the opening of all Parliaments. It was nnich more picturescpie out- side. Italy may be reducing its finances to bank- ruptcy by playing too boldly the beggar-my-neighbor policy of all modern states, but not even bankruptcy can dim the glorious blue of the Italian sky. We are here, in mid-Xovember, with the delightful climate of an English June at its best. Such skies lend them- selves naturally to outdoor pageants. Although the ceremony was of the simplest, it had a brightness and a splendor which we never can hope to rival nnder our English clouds. The balcony of my hotel looked out over the sanded square within which, from as early as nine o'clock, deputies and diplomatists began to alight from their carriages. A donble row of mounted men guarded the approach, the bright red roll of their overcoats //. It l.'li II If, Ji'oillt .MAKC^riS 1)1 IMDIM It.iliiiii I'rcinii'i' in ]s!*s Giucciiiii ilniiji, F/ •i i 1 1 '1 1 t * "il It was all very well to proclaim your disinterestedness, but why did you seize the Philippines? " " Mere national brigandage, nakedly odious Pha- riseeism," is a phrase which roughly represents the judgment of the Old World on the recent develop- ments of the New. From which may be learned once more the oVl truth, that in a man's judgment of his neighbor's motives we see the mirror of his own character. For the most part they express no sur- prise. They expected nothing better from these Eng- lish of the New World. They are true to their an- cestry. But there is in every country a minority of thoughtful men who, having for all their lives been the staunchest friends of the American common- wealth, are now confounded and utterly put to shame at what is universally regarded as the apostasy of the United States, the abandonment of their national policy and the adoption of the world policy of con- quest. When I listened, as I have been listening for montlis past, to the alternate taunts and lamentations of the foes and friends of America, the babel of voices seemed at last to merge into one scornful chorus of welcome to Uncle Sam ! " Hell from beneath is moved from thee to meet thee at thy coming; it stirreth up the dead for thee, even all the chief ones of the earth; it hath raised up from their thrones all the kings of the nations. All they shall speak and say unto thee, ' Art thou also be- come as weak as we? Art thou become like unto us? FROM THE CAPITAL OF TIIF OLD WORLD 439 How art thou fallen from lieaven, () Lucifer, son of the morning I ' " Americans may argue, protest, and rage as they please, the Old World has made up its mind upon the subject, and nothing that can be said or done in the United States will alter its judgment. The American Government has come out of its retirement. It ban thrown its hat into the arena of the world. It is launched on a career of conquest which will be all the more predatory because it is masked by humanitarian- ism. The commonwealth, they hold, has succumbed to the malady which has so long plagued the Old World. A bright hope for the hunum race was ex- tinguished when the one non-military Power, which eschewed all schemes of aggression and annexation, enrolled itself among the common herd of conquering states. So men talk everywhere in Europe. Whether they regard the old American ideal with sympathy or with contempt, they all agree in believing that it has been abandoned, and that for ever. The annexation of the Philippine Islands may seem but a small thing, but it is decisive. When Eve ate the apple it was but the act of a moment. But it barred against her for ever the gates of Paradise. What the Old World says is that the Xew World has now eaten of the forbidden fruit, and the flaming sword which turned every way will prevent a return to the peaceful traditions of the fathers of the republic. In the course of my tour I am now compelled to admit that I found proof existent of a disposition on I' 1<: I % ,11 I 440 THE UNITED HTATEH OF EUROPE the part of the Powers to intervene on behalf of Spain, which might have been very serious had it not been checked in the bud by the knowledge that England would have nothing to do with it. "When I was in Paris I was positively told that no proposal had ever been made to intervene, and that therefore England had never had the occasion or opportunity to put her foot down on the anti- American coalition. That, no doubt was true so far as overt action on the part of the Government was concerned. But it is no less true that immediately after the war broke out a diplomatic representative of the Powers communicated to an American Minister at a European Court in plain and unmistakable terms the displeasure of the Powers and their desire to express that displeasure publicly and forcibly. This communication was sufficiently serious for the contingency of the use of the allied forces of the European nations for the coercion of the United States to be frankly discussed between the two diplomatists. The result of that discussion was to put a summary stop to all notion of European intervention. " If you intervene," said the American Minister, " it means war." " Yes," rejoined his visitor, " and the forces of the great European Powers acting in alliance would over- whelm any opposition which iimerica could offer." " 1^0 doubt," said the American ; " but you have to bring your forces across the Atlantic to the other hemisphere and keej) them there for the rest of your natural life. For the New World is not going to k Mfii^itfHHHHaaMHHI >. » ST. PP:TEU S AM) TllK VATICAN, 1U).MK i H THE CAl'ITOL, HOMK i III ■ i ! ( .' t : ! 1 h^ ■II. 4 '\ I I'l^ FROM THE CAPITAL OF THE OLD WOULD 441 submit to the Old World any more. No, sir, not any more than it submitted a century since, when the odds were far worse. And remember that when you were bringing your armies and your navies across three thousand miles of sea to fight America you would have to count Avith England, who is certainly not friendly to your enterprise." This put an extinguisher on the proposal. Nothing more was heard of the contemplated intervention. It never got so far as to be submitted to England. The whole design was checked at the very outset by the calm audacity with which the representative of Amer- ica played his cards, including the trump card of the Anglo- American entente, which henceforth will play a leading part in all the dealings of the English-speak- ing people with their jealous and suspicious neighbors. I am very glad to be able to set forth the actual facts as they actually happened. They were told me at first hand by the person most immediately con- cerned, so that we can absolutely rely upon the accuracy of the story. If the Old AVorld regards the American growth and expansion with unconcealed alarm, the British Em- pire, which is seated both on the Old AVorld and the New, contemplates the new departure with unaffected sympathy. Tlie relations between the Embassies of Britain and America at Constantinople and at Borne could hardly be closer and more cordial if there had been a hard- and-fast, cut-and-dried, signed, sealed and delivered Vi 'CI ^l / i M'i ii ■;| 442 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE treaty of alliance, offensive and defensive, between the two Powers. If things go on as they are going now, every Eng- lish-speaking man will feel as I have felt throughout this war — that he has not one Ambassador, but two, in every capital in Europe, and that wherever he goes he is shielded by the might, not of one Empire, but of two, a combination beneath whose shadow the whole world may yet learn to rest in peace. Ii j : H CHAPTEK lY WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BE ? .1? i I have visited the capital of every great Power in Europe, and also several which are o-' secondary rank. I have been in Constantinople, Sofia, Belgrade, Buda Pesth, Berne, and Brussels. Everywhere I have made it my duty to ascertain the views of those responsible for public affairs on the subject of the Peace Con- ference, and after spending nearly three months in constant discussion and investigation, I have come home full of high hope, and confident that we are on the eve of a forward step in the progress of human society, from the savagery of lawless war to the reign of peace. Everything, however, depends upon ourselves. These high hopes may be quenched in the blackness of despair. But if England do but to herself prove true, then, as a famous American remarked the other day in Paris, " the iridescent dreams of our boyhood will be realized at last." I will briefly and succinctly sum up the reasons for my belief. In the first place, I know now, as a matter of absolute certainty, no longer to be disputed even by the most cynical and sceptical, that the Peace Rescript 444 THE UNITED t^TATEIS OF EL HOPE l\ \-\ summoning the Governments to the rarliam(mt of Peace is no mere flash in the pan, no sudden outburst of an enthusiastic vouth. I^either is it the mask cover- ing any deep-laid Macehiavellian design. It is the carefully weighed and long considered expression of a reasoned conviction on the part of the ruler of the greatest military Empire in the world, a conviction which is held and expressed by the Tsar with intense, almost passionate, earnestness, but which is shared to the full by his most experienced and powerfid Min- ister':'. That conviction may be briefly stated as the belief that considerations alike of humanity and of statesmanship imperatively demand a cessation of the present breakneck competicion in naval and military armaments, whi-^h, proceeding at an ever-accelerating rate, must, if unchecked, land civilization in the abyss. Armaments have already reached such colossal dimen- sions that they cannot be used without involving the disorganization of society by their mobilization, while the increased deadliness of weapons and enormous havoc of modern war renders it probable that 3vcn victory would only be the prelude of the triump'i of revolutionary Anarchism. War everv vear l}ecomes more and more synonymous with suicide. But the armed peace is only one degree less costly than war. The international game of beggar-my-neighbor can only end in bankruptcy. But no one Power can cry off. Only by a general agreement can the ruinous game be checked. Therefore the Peace Conference has been summoned, and if ever a case was proved I v? WHAT WILL THE OITCOME BE? m beyond all gainsaying, by facts' beyond dispute and calculations mathematically verified, it is that which the Tsar will snbmit to the representatives of the Gov- ernments of the world. Every Power to which the Tsar's appeal has been addressed has admitted the truth of the stern indict- ment. Xot one (jiovernment in the whole world has denied the absolute accuracy of the Imperial diagnosis of the galloping malady which is devouring the mod- ern State. The army and naw estimates for 1S97-8 amounted in Great Britain to £40,000,000, not in- cluding the cost of the Indian armv, which amounts to £14,500,000 more. If this sum were not increased for ten years it would amount to a sum of £400,000,- V 7 7 000, or £77,000,000 more than the whole sum added to our national debt between the Peace of Amiens in 1802 and the Peace of Paris in 1815, when, for thir- teen years, England was locked in death-grapple with N^apoleon. But this sum, colossal as it is, will not suf- fice. This year the total army and navy estimates show an increase — not including the supplementary nayal expenditure, which brings the total up to £43,- 000,000— of £3,000,000 in a single year. To this must be added the extra supplementary shipbuilding programme, which entails a further expense of £2,- 250,000 per annum for three years. And unless the Peace Conference intervenes, this yast snowball will grow larger still. It is to abate this monstrous plague, which threatens the destruction of civilization, that the Russian Gov- I i li 11 446 THE UNITED l^TATES OF EUROPE ernment has summoned the Conference. The fact that a successful icsue of its deliberations would be an enormous relief to the Russian Treasury, so far from justifying the sneers of the cynic, supplies a i laterial justification for the confidence of the optimist. When the obvious and admitted interests of mankind har- monize with the n *. )r" ^ necessities of the Russian Exchequer, there k. ;o -v- :.se in cavilling about mo- tives, it is more imp.itant -> ascertain what can be done to give practical eifect to the aspirations of the Tsar. In the second place there Is no longer any doubt as to the intelligence, the determination, and the strength of the young Emperor of Russia. Four years of hard labor under the tremendous pressure of his Imperial responsibilities have ripened the Prince who was re- garded as a charming and amiable boy at his accession into one of the most serious and courageous of Euro- pean Sovereigns. The atmosphere of the Court has not destroyed the simplicity of his character, nor have the cares of Empire impaired the delightful elan of his youth. But Nicholas II. has thought deeply and re- flected much. lie has gone through his apprentice- ship, and he has learned to handle his tools. His Ministers all know that thev have now to do with a man keenly alive to his responsibilities, with clear and definite views as to his policy, who is inspired and borne up by an overmastering sense of his duty to his people. Responsibility is a great schoolmaster. And in Nicholas II, it has done its work right well. Behind Mi WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BEf 447 all the modesty and simplicity of the man there is now visible the Tsar, the autocrat, whose first duty is to see that he is obeyed. In the third place, the true significance of the Tsar's proposal as to a stay or arrest of armaments is at last beginning to make itself perceptible even to the dullest of Britons. Emphasized as it is by the intention to give an earnest of his sincerity by abandoning the as yet unexecuted portion of its own vast programme of shipbuilding, it is equivalent to a proposal that for \ term of five or of ten years the naval supremacy A England should be recognized as a fundamental prin- ciple of the world's balance of power. If the stereo- typing of the status quo be accepted by the conf'^rcnce of the nations, the naval supremacy of England , ould be virtually consecrated by an international pact. Our present position as sovereign of the seas would be de- clared unassailable by general consent — an outcome of Russian machinations with which even the i^avv League might rest content. Fourthly, the Peace Conference promises not merely to secure a stay of the increase of armaments and the proclamation by an international Parliament of a modern equivalent of the mediieval Truce of God for five or ten years; it will also boldly raise the vital question of mediation and arbitration. If there is one thing upon which all responsible rulers are agreed, it is that the increased violence and the extended influ- ence of the press render it absolutely necessary in the interests of civilization to create some additional safe- 448 THE IMTED STATES OF EUROPE i ' I fli m I guard or bulwark agaiust tlio at present unrestricted sweep of national passion. What that safeguard should be is one of the most important matters to be discussed at the Conference. Piut that something should be done, no sane man can doubt. I had the opportunity of hearing one of the ablest and most experienced of Ivussian di])lomatists ex])ound to me his notion of what could be attempted with every hope of success. As, after making the round of Eu- rope and hearing every imaginable solution discussed from every point of A'iew, no idea seems to me on the whole "0 practical and so simple, I Avill reproduce, not his actual words, but the drift of his argument: — " It was well said by M. Lessar that the Conference would achieve the maximum if it attempted the mini- mum, and that ccnverselv it would achieve the mini- mum if it attempted the maximum. AVhat wc have to seek is the minimum, the first step, and not to at- tempt to reach the top of the ladder at one stride. At present the ethics of international war are precisely those which prevail among the rowdies in a mining camp. There the right of private war exists in its aboriginal savagery. Two men quarrel, and the only question is which shall soonest grab his revolver and shoot his opponent. As civilization progresses, society does not at once forbid private war. It imposes re- strictions, it confines the right within narrower and ever narrower limits, until at last, in the most advanced nations, the right itself disappears. The analogy will help us in attempting to make the first step to imposing WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME HE? 440 a check upon the at present unrestricted license of international war. If we accept this guide, we shall see that the first step is not to insist that the disputants shall leave their quarrcj to be adjudicated upon by a tribunal, impartial it iiiuy be, bn*^ cold, inditferent, and li'overned by general considerations which override tlie interest or the honor of the individual. !Xo. The thin end of the WTdge of neutral intervention is very different. What is done is to insist that before meet- ing in combat, the disputants shall each be compelled to entrust the management of the aifair to a second whom he can implicitly trust to act upon his instruc- tions and to defend his honor as if it were his own. Instead of shooting at sight, the moment a mortal af- front is given, the princii:>als are never allowed to come into personal dispute. Everything is in the hands of the seconds. They must decide first whether the quar- rel is such as to justify a duel, and then they must consider whether they ought to suggest any honorable way of escape from a hostile meeting. If they cannot agree upon any such compronu'se, they can take the opinion of a third party, and press his suggestions upon their principals. But the ultimate decision rests in the hands of the principals. The utmost that a second can do is to refuse to act if the principal refuses to follow his advice. In that case he must find a more obliging second. If, however, the seconds agree that there is nothing to be done but to let them fight, then they fight. But if they fight before these preliminaries are gone through, and death ensues, then the victor is 29 450 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE k ! 4 1 , J i- treated not as a duellist, but as a murderer. That is Avliat could be done in the case of international war. If, for instance, England and France had carried their quarrel about Fashoda to the point of war, the recall of their Ambassadors would have been immediately followed by actual war. If, however, there had been such an agreement as I am supposing might be arrived at in the Conference, when the Ambassadors were withdrawn, before a shot was fired, France and Eng- land would be required to place the whole question in the hands of their friends, who would, I suppose, in this case have been Russia and America. They would have been bound to inquire in the first case whether the issue was grave enough to involve the nations in war; and in the second case, supposing this to be so, whether there was any way of escape from so dread a disaster which they could suggest and which England and France could honorably accept. If they could not find one themselves, they might refer it to a third Power, say the President of the Swiss Confederation, and agree to press his opinion upon the disputants. Xo one who knows anything of the true facts of the Fashoda case can doubt for a moment that Russia and America would have experienced no difficulty in de- vising an honorable way of escape for France from the unfortunate and untenable position in which she found herself. But if, after all, England and France re- jected their counsels, they could then fight with all the clearer conscience becaiise the friendly mediation of their seconds had failed. Such a solution would h > WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BE? 401 H not avert all wars. But I think it would, by gaining time, and by affording an opportunity for the friendly intervention of a trusty mediator nominated ad hoc, prevent at least half the war which would otherwise take place. And that, surely, is good enough for a beginning." I should not in the least be surprised if the views of this eminent diplomatist were embodied in the Russian programme. "Always mediate before you fight;" never draw the sword till your seconds have cleared the field. These are practical proposals which, if adopted, will be a conspicuous landmark in the evolu- tion of human society for many generations to come. It is possible that in England many would go fur- ther. Some years ago I published a pamphlet entitled " Always Arbitrate before you Fight." AVhen it is proposed that we should always arbitrate before we fight, we are asking for nothing extravagant or Uto- pian. It would be not merely extravagant but pre- posterous to propose that we should be ready to arbi- trate on everything, binding ourselves beforehand to accept the award of the arbitrator, whatever it might be; but no such proposition has emanated from any responsible body. All that is asked is that, before we go to war with each other, we should submit the casus belli to a repr< -cntative tribunal, whose verdict should be obtained before a single shot is fired. This is but a latter day resurrection, with improvements, of one of the oldest institutions in the world. It is a melan- choly satire upon that civilized heathenism which is 452 THE UNITED STATEH OF EUROPE ' \ > ' ,^i Mi called Modern Christianity that there is not in Chris- tendom any institution for restraining the hot fever of war as efficient as that which existed in pagan Rome — in Home, which we call heathen, but which was never- theless, in its earliest days, more dominated by the religious spirit than any of the nations which have risen on the ruins of the Roman Empire. Before war was declared in ancient Rome, alike under the mon- archy and in the republic, the cause of war was sub- mitted ^o a solemn court which, although far short of a Board of Arbitration, representing both parties, nevertheless was distinctly in advance of any peace- keeping appliance now existing in the world. A spe- cial college, or court, or board, of high officials existed, dating from legendary times, to whom every dispute was submitted, and until they had given their decision, and a stipulated time had elapsed, no war oould be begun. Plutarch, in his Lives of " ^uma " and of " Camillus,"* :hus describes this ancient institution by which the old Romans endeavored to guard against hasty and unjust war: — Numa instituted several other sacred orders; two of which ^ shall mention, the Salii and Feciales, which afford particu- lar proofs of his piety. The Feciales, who we^'e like the Irenophytakes, or guardians of the peace, among the Greeks, had, I believe, a name expressive of their office; for they were to act and mediate between the two parties, to decide their differences by reason, and not suffer them to go to war until all hopes of justice were lost. The Greeks call such a peace Irene, as puts an end to strife, not by mutual violenc'^, but In a rational way. In like manner the Feciales, or heralds, were often dispatched to such nations as had in- ^Irt WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BE? 453 jured the Romans, to persuade them to entertain more equitable sentiments; if they rejected their application, ihey called the gods to witness, with imprecations against themselves and their country, if their cause was not just; and so they declared war. But if the Feciales refused their sanction, it was not lawful for any Roman soldier, nor even for the king himself, to begin hostilities. War was to com- mence with their approbation, as the proper judges whether it was just, and then the supreme magistrate was to delib- erate concerning th'^ proper means of carrying it on. The great misfortunes which befell the city from the Gauls are said to have proceeded from the violation of these sacred rites. if "What we are seeking to do to-day is little more than to reestablish the Feciales on a wider footing', so as to include representatives of the other side; hut the Ivonians were not the only ancients who recognized this principle. " So well was this practice settled in Greece that when Sparta and Argos made a treaty of alliance they sought to avoid the possibilities of armed collision in the future by providing, ' In case a differ- ence arises between the two contracting nations, the parties shall have recourse to the arbitration of a neutral city, according to Hie custom of their ances- tors! ' Such language would be worthy a i)lace upon the statute-books of the most civilized nation of our day. So well satisfied was the moral sense of the ancients that Avar should be avoided and peace pro- moted that Thucvdides declares it to be a crime to treat as an enemy one who is willing to arbitrate." Arbitration is not put forward as a substitute for war. We only claim that, before we appeal to the 464 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE $ last dread tribunal, we shall exhaust the resources of civilization by referring the question in dispute to the arbitrament of a Court of Peace. It is not the fact that any nation which submits its case to arbitration thereby binds itself to accept, with its eyes shut and its mouth open, any award that may issue from the Arbitral Court. If such a rule were insisted uj)on, it would of necessity exclude from arbi- tration all the questions upon which popular passion rages most fiercely — that is to say, all the questions which are most likely to lead to war; whereas nothing is more certain than that if all questions, no matter what, that imperil peace were to be referred to a Court of Arbitration, with full liberty reserved by both dis- putants to appeal from the award to the arbitrament of war, in nine cases out of ten, probably in ninety- nine out of one hundred, the reference to the Court would settle the question. In the first place it wordd give both parties time to cool down ; secondly, it would compel both nations to examine critically the full statement of their opponents' case and the evidence on which it was suj^ported; thirdly, it would clear the air, for the judicial verdict of an impartial tribunal must, even if mistaken, ki^l out many of the misconceptions and misstatements which inflame international contro- versies; and fourthly, and most important of all, it would so heavily handicap the nation that drew the sword against the award as to enormously increase the securities which civilization now possesses against a resort to war. U \\ WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BEt 455 Professor Max jMiiller, in a letter written three years ago, touched this question with his accustomed sagacity and precision. He \vrites : — It was at the time of the war between Germany and France that i had to write a number of letters about an Interna- tional Tribunal of Arbitration. Nothing came of it, and the chief objection, I remember, was that there are certain ques- tions on which no nation with any self-respect would sub- mit to arbitration. This is the prejudice that has to be eradicated. If the case is so very clear, arbitration can do no harm. Besides, it was never meant that in case arbi- tration went against a country that country could not de- clare its readiness for war and go to war. That is another point to be kept in view. The right of self-defence will remain with nations as with individuals, but of course a nation that disregards such a verdict would have terrible moral forces arrayed against itself. Shall we live to see the principle of arbitration recognized by the great nations of the world? I believe every member of every Parliament in Europe and America would approve of the principle, but in spite of this nothing can be done. And the vast armies go on sucking the very blood out of the people. Nothing seems so difficult to carry as a measure against which no argument can be produced. Of course there are many worthy people who will exclaim against the infamy of the mere suggestion that an appeal should lie to arms from the award of a Court of Arbitration. But these persons should re- member that we cannot do everything at once, and tlat there is no more certain method of being left without bread than that of insisting upon having the whole loaf. Further, the eserved right to fight — taking the consequences and paying the price — cannot 1 ( l! i! 1 < j 1 450 T///J ( \itj:d states of europl 1)0 taken away, no matter what treaties are signetl or laws are passed. The right of private war exists in every man of ns intact to this day, if we eare to pay the price which society exacts and which is paid nnder the gallows. In time, the nation tliat appealed from the award of the Arbitration Court to the sword would fare as ill as the private citizen who sets the law courts at defiance, but we have not reached that point yet. Safely and slow; they stumble who run fast. What is proposed at present is simply to interpose before an appeal to the sword — if that appeal must come — an appeal to the deliberate and judicial verdict of an im- partial Court, not selected ad hoc, but existing as a permanent part of the apparatus provided by the nations for adjusting any differences whic'i may arise between them. An Am^Brican WTiter, Ifr. N. S. Shaler, writing in the North American Eevieiv in December, 1895, sug- gested the summoning of a Peace Conference in AVasli- ington in 1897, for the purpose of do- i li ^ safeguards against war. Some of his suggestion^ '\.c well worth consideration to-day. He wrote: — I? It seems not unreasonable to suggest that the Conference might advise the institution of a Permanent International Peace Commission, composed of delegates from the several national authorities, which should hold annual sessions and which could be called together whenever it became evi- dent that there was danger of a warlike contest between any o£ the contracting parties, this Permanent Commission to have no actiicil powers except those of mediation preced- ing ( r during a conflict, and of suggestions concerning limi- ,li WHAT WILL THE OVTCOMi: BiJf 457 tations or the reduction of standing armioF, and navies. The arrangement for the use of the influence of the Commission might well be as follows: The several States might agree that, in a case of impending warlike outbreak between any two members of the association, the Commission might send a delegate or delegates from its members whose efforts at mediation sliould be heard before the declaration of war. This commission might turthermo»s agree to consider the recommendations for progressive disarmament at some definite and proportional rate, or for the replacement of standing armies by an organized militia, say of the Swiss type. The considerations may extend to the point of sub- mitting the propositions to the legislature or other bodies which have charge of the budgets of the several States, there being no guarantee given that the Government concerned shall approve of the propositions as submitted by the Com- mission. It might be well to charge the Commission with the task of b offering the statement of the body of customs which is termed international law; it is possible that in course of time something like effective codification of these usages might be brought about. The Codification of the Law o-^ Xations is one of the subjects the Pope is strongly of opinion should be undertaken by the forthcoming Conference. I cannot conclude this chapter more appropriately than by quoting the earnest and eloquent appeal issued in 1896 by the American, Irisli and English Cardinals in favor of the establishment of a permanent Court of Arbitration as a substitute for war. They say: — We are well aware that such a project is beset with prac- tical difficulties. We believe that they will not prove to be insuperable if the desire to overcome them be genuine and general. Such a Court existed for centuries when the nations of Christendom were united in one Faith. And r-^ i I 468 THE UNi.'ED STATED OF EUROPE ' I have we not seen nations appeal to that same Court for its judgment in our own day? The establishment of a permanent tribunal, composed, may be, of trusted representatives of each Sovereign nation, with power to nominate judges and umpires according to the nature of the differences that arise, and a common accept- ance of general principles defining and limiting the juris- diction and subject-matter of such tribunal, would create new guarantees for peace that could not fail to Influence the whole of Christendom. Such an International Court of Arbitration would form a second line of defence, to be called into requisition only after the ordinary resources of diplo- macy had been exhausted. It \/ould at least postpone the outbreak of hostilities until reason and common sense had formally pronounced their last word. This is a matter of which the constitution and procedure must be settled by Governraents. But as Governments are becoming more identified with the aspirations, and moulded by the desires of the people, an appeal in the first instance must be addressed to the people. I Yea, verily, and it is the People who will decide ! CHAPTER V A PILGRIMAGE OF PEACE The year having for the most part been given up by the English-speaking peoples to making two wars and threatening to make a third, it is surely about time that they did something for peace. The fact that they alone among the civilized races have this year felt the smart and borne the burden of campaigns on land and sea, is in itself a reason why they should now take action for the avoidance of war in the future. Fortunately the moment is propitious on both sides of the Atlantic. The peace with Spain, which for some time seemed in danger, is now at last definitely secured, and there is no longer any peril to civilization either from barbarism triumphant in the Soudan or from the unfriendly acts of other Powers in the Nile Valley. If only as a thank-offering for these crown- ing mercies vouchsafed to our arms, we owe it to our- selves and our neighbors to do what in us lies to render avoidable nnd unnecessary the appeals to arms, and to diminish so far as is practicable the cruel pressure of the cost of armaments for war. Hitherto for the most part the advocates of peace have been compelled perforce to confine themselves to 400 THE UNITED (STATES OF EUROPE i i the enunciation of general principles, with here and there a practical application. But this year the un- expected and courageous initiative of the Russian Emperor has suddenly rendered feasible the practical realization of ideals, all hope for the attainment of which lias been regarded as the vainest of the pious aspirations of mankind. After many years of talk, the t^'^ie has come for action. AVords must now give place to deeds, and instead of mere dissertations on the abstract virtues of peace, there can be substituted the giving of direct practical support to the first great international effort that has been made to reduce arma- ments and provide some kind of international safe- guard against the passions which hurry nations into needless wars. This year, on the eighteenth of May, a Conference of all the Governments of the civilised world will meet at The Hague to return a definite a:ls^"er to the appeal addressed to \he reason and conscieixce of mankind by th(^ Emperor of Russia. However we may differ concerninii' the motives or the ultimate aims of the author of the Peace Rescript — and those who know him best are the most confident as to his sinceritv and earnestness for peace — the appeal to the Conference constitutes a solemn challenge to the moral sense of each one of us. The apjialling evils of the present system are ad- mitted by all. Xot a single Government has denied the accuracy of the terrible indictment brought against it in the Tsar's circular. The obligation to find, if A PILGRIMAGE OF PEACE 461 possible, a remedy is imperative. That ohligaticn rests upon every nation. Xo one can throw the scjlr responsibility for the solution of the prol)lem upon the Ruler who had the courage to tackh^ the (juestion. It is our dutv as much as his. AVliat are we doing to help him to solve it? It is fortunate that the problem, although absolutely insoluble if one element be wanting, is compaiaiivcly simple if that element be supplied. And it is not less fortunate that this now indispensable element is one the supplying of which lies within the ciipacity of each one of us, and that if all of us but act together, no prac- tical difficulty will be experienced in devising meas- ures to arrest the growth of armaments, and to provide an international barrier against future wars. The Conference and the Governments will furnish all the machinery that is necessary. But it is for the people themselves to get up steam. The Conference will be foredoomed to impotence, if there is no motive power at the back of it in the sliape of an imperious and irre- sistible demand from the nations who suffer and from the peoples who groan under the intolerable burden of the armed peace. To evoke that demand, to render articulate, audible and imperative the longing of the masses of the people — tliat is the duty of all who love their fellow-men, between this day and the meeting of the Conference. The question of how it is to be done is one wdiich each individual must decide according to the wisdom which he possesses, and the opportunities of iniluencing 463 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE <\ I '. I itiii li U: his fellows which he can command. To use a homely phrase, if each one keeps the kettle boiling in his own circle there will be no lack of steam when the Con- ference meets. But as individual efforts are apt to lose much of their force if they lack cohesion, coopera- tion, and unity of direction, it is proposed to make the attempt to stimulate local effort and harmonize it on an international scale by the immediate organization of a great Pilgrimage of Peace through all nations, be- ginning at San Francisco and ending at St. Peters- burg. In proclaiming a Holy War against War and in summoning all the Governments to a Conference upon the perils with which modern armaments threaten the modern State, the Emperor of Russia has embarked upon an enterprise which, however glo- rious it may be, is inevitably doomed to immediate failure unless the crusade is preached among the peo- ples, and a response, hearty and universal from below, hails the appeal from above. To give such a propaganda of peace a practical ob- jective, and to provide the simplest and most effective method of combining into one visible and organic whole all the forces making for peace and for an abate- ment of armaments, it is proposed to arrange for a Pilgrimage of Peace. As the original initiative of the Conference was taken by the Autocrat of the East, it is obviously the right thing that the initiative of the national response should come from the free democra- cies of the West. The English-speaking folk, whether they live in the United Kingdom or the United States, m w A PILGRIMAGE OF PEACE 4G8 are as a unit on this question. The Americans must of course readjust their armaments to their new re- sponsibilities. They are doing this to-day, but, like the elder branch of the race, thev have not the least intention of abandoning the secular protest which the English-speaking race has always made against the scourge of universal compulsory military service and the burdens of the armed peace. It is hoped that in every centre of population in Britain and America the people will have been gath- ered together under their local leaders to express in formal resolution their determination that the Peace Conference shall be made a success, and to appoint a local committee for the furtherance of the objects of the Conference. From each of these local committees so appointed one delegate might be chosen to serve on the joint national committee of the two English-speak- ing nations; for in this good work, for the first time, the Empire and the Republic could act as if they were indeed but component parts of the great Common- wealth of the English-speaking folk. The Anglo- American Xational Committees thus constituted, it is proposed, should appoint a joint deputation to wait upon the Tsar. The object of this deputation of the English-speak- ing folk would be, first, to convey to the Tsar before the Conference opens the welcome assurance that he has behind him in his beneficent enterprise the im- mense force of the English-speaking race; and, sec- ondly, while on their way to St. Petersburg, to make ^ <^^!> •C**"^. IMAGE EVALUATION TEST TARGET (MT-3) k // ^/ ^.^^ /. 1.0 1.1 150 "^ HHI no 12.0 lit IL25 i 1.4 m 1.6 V] ^> 7] ^> V Photographic Sdences Corporation 23 WEST MAIN STRUT WMSTM.N.Y. MStO (716) •72-4S03 ^ Jl' ^ .V ^ ^4^0 '■"r 464 THE UNITED STATE i>l OF EUROPE 'W \i •4 ! |H it ill 'it a Pilgrimage of Peace throughout Europe summon in all the other nations to bestir themselves, and to unite with them in this great manifestation of popular en- thusiasm in the cause of peace. The Pilgrimage would serve as the international rallying point of the new Crusade. In every land it would proclaim in clear and unmistakable fashion the passionate prayer of the overburdened peoples, — Give us peace in our time, good Lord! The proposal has b:en received with the utmost en- thusiasm wherever it has been mooted. Even despite the fever of Fashoda and the absence of any attempt to mobilize the forces of peace, there has been a very considerable expression of public opinion. The recent dispute with France, which at one time threatened the success of the demonstration, will now be its most valuable object-lesson. Nothing could more clearly bring before the mind of the British peoples — first, the peril that sudden gusts of passion may hurry neighbor- ing nations into war; secondly, the urgent need for some international buhvark against such i peril; and thirdly, the reality of the supremacy of the British fleet, which, if the Tsar's proposal is accepted, will re- ceive international recognition as one of the funda- mental elements of the status quo. The American Representatives would be welcomed as the most " outward and visible sign " know^n and read of all men, that in the good work of peace the English-speaking world is not two, but one, and that at last, in the fulness of time, the English-speaking folk 111 A PILQRIMAQE OF PEACE 465 are able to act together as a unit in the best interests of mankind. The first to join the pilgrimage, after its initiation by the English-speaking folk, would be the representa- tives of the seven smaller free States — Switzerland, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Portugal. It might possibly be arranged that one representative from each of these States should be present at the Albert Hall send-off, so that the English- speaking deputation would make its dehiii on the Con- tinent supported by the representatives of seven small States which contain 27,000,000 of the most intelli- gent and most pacific of the population of Europe. When the great International Deputation made its debut in Paris, there is no question as to the immense effect which its mere arrival would have upon the public mind of Europe. That effect would be deep- ened and strengthened by every succeeding day. There would be receptions at the British and Amer- ican Embassies, public conferences for both men and women, public demonstrations in the great towns, and then, finally, when the French members had been added to the Deputation, they would all wait upon the President and his Ministers, urging upon them the supreme importance of backing up at the Con- ference the proposals of the present ally of France. From Paris the great International Pilgrimage would go to Berlin, where the experiences of Paris would be repeated. Arrangements would have to be made for demonstrations in all the great cities in the 80 466 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE t I I 1 1 a^i ¥f Empire. There is little doubt that the Deputation would receive a hearty welcome from the Kaiser, with whose Godspeed the great Pilgrimage would roll on to Vienna and Pesth, where, by-the-by, its reception would be most enthusiastic, and then having been swollen by German and Austro-Hungarian mem- bers, it would go to Rome. When the Italian con- tingent was added to the number, the Deputation would go to St. Petersburg, where it would be received by the Tsar, who would learn from the lips of the international pilgrims how passionately the peoples desire peace, how enthusiastically they have responded to his initiative, and how emphatically they bid him stand firm in the name of " God and the people " and achieve this great good for humanity. There is no need to elaborate details. This brief outline is enough to indicate the magnitude of the scale upon which the response of the nations might be made to the initiative of the Tsar. Neither is it neces- sary to insist too much on the particular programme of reform which may find favor with the Tsar and his advisers. The Conference will be an open one, and it is as much our responsibility as his to devise practical measures for coping with the evil that confronts us. But it is understood that the practical proposals which will come before the Conference will include: — (1) A " Truce of God " for five or ten years. (2) A halt or arrest of armaments for a similar period. (3) An international agreement by all the Powers '^ II, A PILGRIMAGE OF PEACE 467 that, in case of disputes arising during the Truce of God, the future disputants bind themselves not to declare war until they have invoked the mediation of friendly Powers who should in all cases have a full opportunity of intervening in the interests of peace before the last appeal is made to the sword. If this proposal be accepted we shall always gain time, and always provide the Power that does not want to fight with an honorable way of escape before the sword is unsheathed. The recognition of this prin- ciple IS the next great onward step to be taken in the evolution of humanity. Be this as it may, the immediate question is not, What shall the Conference decide; but whether the peoples will at once set about getting up steam with sufiicient pressure to overcome the vis inertice of diplomacy and the cynical scepticism of the Govern- ments. Already there is ample evidence that the Inter- national Pilgrimage of Peace would be hailed by the millions as a new harbinger of hope among the nations. It would affirm the unity of the English-speaking race and it would base that unity on the promotion of peace. It would array all the smaller nations in support of the English-speaking initiative, and it would, for the first time in the history of our race, bring the represen- tatives of the English-speaking w^orld as a unit to ap- peal for common action to the people of the at present sadly dis-United States of Europe. I 1^1. n I. . V. I • I 468 THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE It vould give an immense stimulus to peace propa- ganda everywhere. If it succeeded it would stave off a threatened increase of naval expenditure of many millions a year, and even if it failed it would have profoundly affected for good the future of the rela- tions between the Slavonic and the Anglo-American races. All this is admitted, for it is indeed indisputable. The only question is whether it is to be done. :\i\ eace propa- ild stave off re of many tvould have 3f the rela- 3- American idisputable. ne.