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32X

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

THE TSAH, NICHOLAS II.

STATES
UROFE

THE F THE

PARLIAMENT
OF PEACE

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lU. T3^AR. >'?••' ■ -H ■tt

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UNITED STATES
OF EUROPE

ON THE EVE OF THE

PARLIAMENT

OF PEACE

W, T. STEAD

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TORONTO

GEORGE N. MORANG & COMPANY

LIMITED

1899

161153

^fe.a.C(

I J

XtCol

PREFACE

In the year 1898 tAvo strange things happened. It
is difficult to say which was more unexpected.

In the West the American Republic, which for more
than a hundred years had made as its proudest boast
its haughty indifference to the temptation of territorial
conquest, suddenly abjured its secular creed, and con-
cluded a war upon Avhich it had entered with every
protestation of absolute disinterestedness by annexa-
tions so sweeping as to invest the United States mth
all that was left of the heritage of imperial Spain.

In the East a Sovereign autocrat, commanding the
bayonets of four millions of trained soldiers and the
implicit obedience of one hundred and twenty millions
of loyal subjects, amazed and bewildered mankind by
formally and publicly arraigning the armaments of
the modem world, and summoning a Conference of all
the Powers to discuss practical measures for abating
an evil which threatened to land civilized society in
the abyss.

Many other things happened in 1898, but nothing
for a moment to compare with the significance of these
two immense events, which, each in its ovm. way, con-
stitute landmarks in the evolution of the human race.

PREFACE

The Peace Rescript of the Tsar of Russia, the Treaty
of Peace extorted at the sword's point from prostrate
Spain — these two strongly contrasted documents con-
stitute together one of the paradoxes of History. It
is the pacific Republic which makes war, which multi-
plies its army fourfold, and which seizes by the right
of conquest the colonial possessions of Spain. It is
the Imperial autocrat of a military empire who im-
peaches the war system of the world, and, himself the
master of a thousand legions, invites the nations to a
Parliament of Peace.

It is not surprising that a contrast so startling, an
exchange of i-oles so unexpected, should at once arrest
and bewilder the contemporary observer. We are
still too near this great transformation scene ade-
quately to realize its full significance.

In order better to ascertain what might be the true
meaning and vital import of the sudden apparition of
an industrial Commonwealth as a conquering and an-
nexing Imperial power, and the not less startling ap-
parition of the Tsar of Russia in the garb of an angel
of peace, I undertook a rapid journey round Europe
in the autumn of 1898, for the twofold purpose of
ascertaining what the men of the Old World thought
of the latest development of the New World, and of
discovering the true inwardness of the Tsar's Rescript,
and the degree of welcome which it was likely to re-
ceive from the peoples to whom it was addressed.

I left London on September 1 Hth for Brussels, and
visited in rapid succession Lioge. Paris, Berlin, St.

o
a

a.
so

H
Ph
O

ft.
O

4>
-3

3
oo

a
if
o

PREFACE

Petersburg, Moscow, Sebastopol and Yalta. At Yalta
I had the lionor of being twice received by the Tsar
at Livadia. Ketiirning to Sebastopol, I took the
steamer to Constantinople. The Orient Express
brought me to Sofia, the capital of the Principality
of Bulgaria, from whence I passed by Belgrade and
Buda Pesth to Vienna. From Vienna, I went by
Florence to Rome. On my way home I called at
Cannes, Geneva and Berne, revisiting Paris on No-
vember 26th, and reaching London on November
28th.

In one respect I was advantageously placed for hear-
ing the views of trained and experienced observers.
Most travellers consider themselves luckv if tliev can
count upon the assistance cf one Ambassador in each
country which they visit. I, fortunately, can always
call upon three. Born in Britain, and carrying on
business in America, I found myself equally at home
in the British and American Embassies ; while Russia
has so long been to me as a second country, that her
Ambassadors were at least as helpful as those of the
English-speaking nations.

Besides these official representatives, I naturally
found myself everywhere at home Vv-^h the unofficial
ambassadors of the public, who, under the imassuming
guise of newspaper correspondents, do much more to
form the opinion of the civilized world than all the
ambassadors, ministers, and plenipotentiaries put to-
gether. Without their aid, generously afforded me
wherever I w^nt, it would have been idle to attempt

VIU

PREFACE

such a rapid survey of the Continent as I venture to
present in these pages.

It would be the maddest presumption to pretend
that in a rush round Europe, begun and completed in
less than three months, anything can be obtained be-
yond a series of general impressions, instantaneous
photographs as it were, of the ever-shifting panorama
of Continental politics. But on the two points to
which I specially addressed myself it is perhaps not
too much to hope that I may at least have succeeded
in bringing into clear relief the salient features of
the situation. Everywhere I asked what the men of
the Old World thought of the newest New World that
had suddenly revealed itself beyond the seas. Every-
where also I asked what about the Peace Conference
to which the world had been summoned by the Tsar.
Incidentally, of course, I treat upon many other sub-
jects, but the answers to these inquiries form the
central essence of this book.

I have drawn freely upon the letters and articles
which in the course of my tour I contributed to the
Daily News, the Associated Press of America, and the
Review of Reviews.

In conclusion, I may take the opportunity of an-
nouncing that should this Annual meet with public
appreciation, I hope to begin with the twentieth cen-
tury a series of Annuals which would provide the gen-
eral reader with a more or less comprehensive survey
of the movements of the twelvemonth, written from
a special standpoint after personal converse with the

PREFACE

sovereigns and statesmen, the diplomatists and jour-
nalists of Europe. Of year-books of the statistical and
dry-as-dust order there are enough and to spare. But
of Annuals written to be read, and not merely to be
referred to, I do not know of one.

WILLIAM T. STEAD.

Review op Reviews Office,
Mowbray House, N^orfolk Street, London, W.C.
Jantiary Ut, 1899.

I ;

; I

CONTENTS

PART I
TOWARDS THE FEDERATION OF THE WORLD

CHAP.

I. U.S.A. AxVD U.S.E.
II. Links and Barriers

III. The Capital of the Continent

IV. The European Concert ,
V. EUROPA

PAQE
1

8
25
38
54

PART II

ENGLAND IN 1808
I. The Pashoda Fever

• • • ♦ •

II. The Chinese Puzzle ......

III. HiSPANIOLIZATION

PART III

THE NORTHWESTERN ST A TE3

I. Belgium

II. France

III. Germany

IV. The Minor States op Europe ....

83
115
145

173

188
211
226

Xli CONTENTS

PART IV

RUSSIA OF THE RESCRIPT

CHAP.

I. At St. Petersburo in 1898 .
II. The Peace Rescript

III. Two Letters from St. Petersburg

IV. M. Witte and His Work
V. A Russian Cobden ....

VI. The Ideas of Prince Ouchtomsky
VII. The Emperor of Peace

PAGB

283
252
280
297
308
319
345

i 't

PART V

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

I. America and Russia
IT, Constantinople ....

III. From the Capital of the Old V/orld

IV. What will the Outcome be ?
V. A Pilgrimage of Peace

395
411
428
448
460

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

The Tsar, Nicholas II

Sir Horace Rumbold .

Lord Currie

Sir Edmund Monson .

Sir Nicholas O'Connor

Mr. Saundees

Mr. Dobson .

M. DB Blowitz

Mr. Lavigno

TuK itfciCHSTAG Building, Berlin

The REicHi;RATH, Vienna .

Queen Wilhelmina op Holland

The Late Quei:n of Denmark

Queen Margharita of Italy

The Empress of Germany .

Emperor William of Germany

Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria-Hunga

Kino Oscar of Sweden

The Kino of Servla

Count Goluchowski

Count Thun

Herr Von Kallay

The Heir Apparent of Austria-Hungary

M. DupuY . ...

The Late President Faure

M. Hanotaux

• • •

M. Delcass^

Major Marchand

Sir Edward Grky, M.P. .

Right Hon. John Morley, M.P.

Frontispiece

FACING
PAUE

. 10

10
10
20
20
20
20
56
56
. 58
. 58
58
. 58
G6
66
66
66
72
72
72
72
84
84
84
84
86
90
90

tiv

LIHT OF ILLUSTRATIONS

I-

■'Y

I '

Right Hon. II. TI. Asquith, M.P.

Right Hon. Sir Henry Fowi.fp MP

The Marquis of Salisbup'

The Rt. Hon. A. J. Bau Ji^.

The Rt. Hon. Lord Rosebery

The Rt. Hon. Joseph Chamberlain

Sir Claude Macdonald

Lord Curzon op Kedleston

The Hon. W. P. Schreiner

Lord Aberdeen .

Dezos Szilaoy

Baron Banff y

M. TiszA ....

Maurus Jokai

M. Drumont

M. Pressens^

M. ROCHEFORT

M. Georges Clemenceau
Leopold, Kino of the Belgians
M. Cremer ....
The Crown Prince of Belgium
The Queen of Belgium
M. Beenaert

M. WOESTE .

Baron Von Eetvelde

M. d'Alviella

The Paris Bourse

The Arc de Triomphe, Paris

M. Brisson

M. Bruneti^re

M. Jaur^s

General Zurlinden

Ex-Captain Dreyfus

General Mercier

Ex-Colonel Picquart

Count Esterhazy

Dr. Richter

Count Herbert Bismarck

Herr Liebknecht

FAc™o

FAOB

90
90
94
94
94
94
130
130
130
130
153
153
153
153
168
168
168
168
176
176
176
176
186
186
186
186
188
188
190
190
190
190
208
208
208
208
214
214
214

LIST OF ILLUiiTKATlOSS

riKRU BeHEL .

Prince Hohenloiik
Dr. von Miquel .
Prince Henry of Prussia
Sir F. Lascelles .

M. SeBQIUS WlTTE

Prince Kolropatkin .
m. goremvkin
Prince Khilkoff .
M. DE Nelidoff .
Count Muraviefk .
Prince Ourosoff .

M. ZiNOVIEFF

The Kremlin, Moscow

The Tsarina

On the Road from Livadia

Balaklava Town and Bay

An Italian Representation

M. Geveshofp

Prince Ferdinand

M. Zankoff .

Dr. Yankoloff

Marquis di Rudini

King Humbert T. of Italy

SiGNOR Son NINO

General W. F. Dkaper

The Palais de Justice, Brussels

The Houses of Parliament, Rome : The Kino Leavin

AFTER Delivering his Speech from the Throne
Cardinal Jacobini
Cardinal Parocchi
Cardinal Rampolla
Cardinal Steinhuber .
St. Peter's and the Vatican, Rome
The Capitol, Rome

to Sebastopoi

of the Russian Eagles

PACINO
1>A(>B

. 314

. 222

. 288

. 324

. 330

. 346

. 360

. 380

. 414

. 428

. 430

. 434

. 440

«v

\i\'

LIST OF MAPS

Map op Europe Showing Mr. Stead's Routk

The U.S.E. and the U.S.A. ......

Map of Europe Showing International Railways and
ItlVERS

Map Showing Relation of Port Arthur to Talien-

WAN— AS THE SpITHEAD PoRTS ARE TO SOUTHAMPTON

Russian Manchuria .....
Map of the Yano-tse-Kiano Valley

The Rest of Europe inside Russia

' :ap Showing Shrinkage op the Turkish Empire .
Turkey in Europe

FACING
TAOE

120
126
143
353
412
434

FACINO

rA(iE
vi

. 10

AND

[EN-

120
126
143
353
412
424

THE UNITED STATES OF

EUKOPE

PART I

TOWARDS THE FEDERATION OF THE WORLD
CHAPTER I

U.S.A. AND U.S.E.

" The United States of Europe " is a phrase natu-
rally suggested by the United States of America.
The latter enables the former to be at least thinkable.
For a hundred years ihe world has been familiarized
with the spectacle of a continually increasing number
of independent and sovereign States living together
in federal union. An experiment which has lasted
so long, and which on the whole has borne such good
fruits, naturally suggests the question whether a sim-
ilar arrangement may not be the ultimate solution of
many of the problems which perplex us in the Old
World. It is true that the United States of America
have not survived their century without at least one

J!
1>

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

bloody war. But although for four years the Repub-
lic trod knee-deep in the winepress of the wrath of
God, the Union emerged from that ordeal not merely
no weaker, but infinitely stronger than before. The
war that saved the Union was infinitely more impor-
tant because it secured the unitv of the American
State, than even because it indirectly effected the
emancipation of the negro. For it was the preserva-
tion of the Union which enabled the Americans to
escape the blighting curse of the Armed Peace against
which Europe is at last beginning to rise in revolt.
Thus the United States of Europe, the United States
of America, and the Tsar's Rescript are all bound to-
gether much more closely than might at first sight
have been imagined. The United States of America,
because tliev are united, have succeeded down to the
present year in maintaining peace and order through-
out their vast territories, and in building up one of
the greatest of world powers, not merely without any
resort to conscription, but even without any standing
armv at all.

It will be objected that, down to the outbreak of
the recent war, the Americans had what was called
a standing army. What they had was 25,000 Federal
gendarmes — a force not twice as large as the total
number of the London Metropolitan Constabulary.
Tv^ow a force of 25,000 men in a nation of seventy
millions can hardly be regarded as other than the
sceptre of sovereign power wielded by the Federal
Executive, a sceptre rather than a sword, the svmbol

U.S.A. AXD U.S.E.

of sovereignty rather than the instrument by which
it can be exerted. The collapse of the great Rebel-
lion, the extinction of the attempt to found a slave
Republic in the Southern States, enabled the Ameri-
cans to escape the plague of hostile frontiers. Being
united in a fraternal and federal Republic, they have
had no occasion to build fortresses or to create forti-
fied camps, nor have they, even in their nightmares,
dreamed of subjecting the whole of their able-bodied
youth to the enforced slavery of compulsory military
service. Had the Confederacy triumphed, all this
would have been altered, and two rival republics would
have confronted each other north and south of a geo-
graphical line which would have bristled with bay-
onets, and frowned with cannon. The secret of their
deliverance from this plague of the Old World must
be found in the preservation of their Union.

It is therefore natural, when the young War Lord of
the greatest of European armies issued his memorable
indictment of the armed system of the Old World,
that Europeans should turn their eyes with wistful
longing to the continent which has hitherto been im-
mune to militarism, and which has exhibited to the
world the greatest example of disarmament on record.
IN'or is it surprising, perceiving the open secret of the
way in which the Americans have escaped the worst
forms of the malady which is eating out the vitals of
the modern State, that dwellers in the Old AVorld
should begin to ask themselves anxiously whether or
not the ultimate solution of the problem which will

t (

- )

I »

1^ ^

4 THT'] USITED STATEH OF EUROPE

be considered hj the Peace Conference is to be found
in the realization of the conception which has hitherto
])een confined to idealists like Victor lingo or seers like
Mazzini. In other words, the summoning of the Par-
liament of Peace brings us within sight, if not within
hailing distance, of the recognition of the United
States of Europe.

Such at least was the idea Avhich, in the autumn of
1808, led me to undertake for the first time a tour of
the new (Continental (Commonwealth in posse^ with
the twofold object — first, of seeing by personal experi-
ence how far the nations and states Avere already for
practical purposes welded into one; and secondly, dis-
covering how far public opinion in the various capitals
was prepared to -welcome the next step which it was
pro])osed to take in the direction of settled peace.

On the day before I started from London, j\rr. Neaf,
the Euro])ean editor of the Associated Press — that
organization which, from its hold on the newspapers
of the United States, may be regarded as the keeper
of the ear of Uncle Sam — asked me whether I would
write him a letter from each of the capitals I visited,
describing what the Old AVorld thought of the newest
evolution of the Xew "World — the sudden flaming up
of AuK^rican enthusiasm on behalf of the victims of
Spanish oppression, and the consequent expansion of
the ])oundaries of the American (Commonwealth.
Closely alli'^l with tiiis evolution of American Im-
perialisui was the apparition of the United States as an
active competitor in the neutral markets of the w^orld.

U.S.A. AXD U.S.E.

I accepted the commission, and the contents of this
volume are necessarily more or less inlluenced by the
double task to which I addressed mvself. -Vt the
same time I venture to hope that the very complexity
of the study will add somewhat to the interest of the
book.

From one point of view Europe contemplates the
United States of America as having- realized the ideal
towards which the Kescript of the Tsar appears ulti-
mately to point. On the other hand, Europe perceives
the United States devoting tliemsel' es to a war of
liberation, which, according to the tamiliar precedent,
appeared to develop into a war of conquest; while
sinniltaneously the American producer, already su-
preme in the supply of produce of the soil, suddenly
reveals himself as a formidable rival in all nutimer
of manufactured goods. This last factor in the prob-
lem, although regarded (as Count Goluchowsky pub-
licly declared) with consternation and alarm, counts
nevertheless as a very valuable element in the forces
making for jieace and disarmament. It brings home
to the average man the enormous advantages in in-
dustrial competition which are enjoyed by a nation
that is free to devote the whole of its inventive ea])acity
to the arts of ])roduction, and to pass the whole of its
youth into the factory and the null, without previously
taking tithe of their years in the heavy corvee of the
barracks. Thus at the same time that the United
States of America afford the disunited States of
Eiu'ope the sjiectacle of a great nation, orderly and

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

■♦

> I

•il

free, which has grown up to greatness without any
more than a mere symbol of an army, the menacing
ascendancy of the American producer in the markets
of the world tends to drive the lesson home that the
ways of militarism are the ways of death. In the
long mn it may he found that the phenomenal increase
of American exports in the year 1898 may do more to
induce the acceptance of the Russian Emperor's pro-
posals than all the appeals of the moralists and all the
arguments of the philanthropists.

" This is the way: walk ye in it," is the word uttered
from the Tinperial throne of Muscovy, while from
across the Atlantic comes as a deep response — " And
if ye do not walk in it, ye will assuredly die." Die —
not necessarilv hv the sword, hut hv the absolute in-
ability of nations, weighed down with the ever-increas-
ing burden of modern armaments, to compete with
their disencumbered rivals. England, France, Ger-
many and Italy have been desperately struggling for
some years past to obtain possession of unopened mar-
kets. They have spent millions like water in order
to secure prior rights over great expanses of African
and Asiatic territory which nvc only prospective mar-
kets at the best; and all the while they ha >e ignored
the fact that they are in imminent danger of losing
control of their own market, and that while they may
gain a more or less doubtful chance of a turnover of
hundreds of thousands in distant continents, the in-
crease of American exports to the European market is
to be reckoned everv year bv millions. This economic

U.S.A. AXn U.8.E.

portent, to which for the moment the public turns a
blind eye, will every day more and more assert itself,
and more and more tend to compel the Old World to
adopt the Xew World conditions, or to give up the
struggle. What are the !New World conditions?
They are these — all the States dwell together in Fede-
ral Union, witliout hostile frontiers and without stand-
ing armies, and with a greater expenditure upon edu-
cation than upon armaments. There are other factors
in the problem, no doubt; these are the chief. We
in the Old World cannot hope to rival the vast re-
sources of a continent which even now is but par^ii.Uy
developed; but the fact that we are naturally handi-
capped in competing with the virgin resources of the
New World renders it all the more necessary that we
should disembarrass ourselves of all the artificial im-
pediments which render it difficult, not to say impos-
sible, for us to hold our own in the struggle for exist-
ence in the markets of the world. The United States
of Europe, therefore, however remote it may appear
to those who look merely at the surface of things, may
be much nearer than even the most sanguin* amongst
us venture at present to hope.

CHAPTER II

LINKS AND BARRIERS

A tour round Europe seemed to me the most natu-
ral way of bringing forcibly to my mind a sense of
the factors Avhich impede this natural development.
The problem can be approached from many points
of view, and studied in many ways; but I elected
to choose the simple method of going round Europe to
see places and things for myself at first hand, and to
form some kind of an idea as to what were the forces
making for union, and what were those which tended
to make the adoption of the federal principle difficult
or impossible.

To begin with, it is impossible not to be impressed
with the contrast between Europe to-day and Europe
a few centuries ago. Five hundred years ago it would
have been practically impossible for me to have made
the circular tour from which T have just returned. In
the first place, the countries tlirough which I passed
would not liaA^e been at peace one with the other; in
the second place, I should have had great difficulty in
obtaining permission to cross many frontiers, and
thirdly, I should in some countries have been in im-
minent danger of losing my life, or at least my liberty.

LIXKS .WD liARRlKh'S

Last year Europe was in profouiul peace. There was
no dilHeulty whatever in (•'•ossing any frontier, nor
did I ex])erience any more risk to life or liberty in
travelling throngh the Continent than I should have
done in making a tour round ]vent, or passing from
New York to San r'raneisco. For travelling purposes
Europe is already a eomnionwealth. But there are
two relics of barbarism still remaining which compel
tho wayfaring man to admit the existence of inde-
j)endent, rival, or hostile states. The first is connnon
to all countries; the second is confined to one or two.
The first is a custom-house. l]ut for the pestilent
nuisance of the doucnip, the tourist could go from the
Xortli (^ape to (Jibraltar, from (^ape Einisterre to
'I'ransylvania, without ever being aware that he was
passing from one jurisdiction to another. The uni-
forms of the police and of the soldiery differ somewhat,
but so also do the features of the landscape. Person-
ally he would experience no more inconvenience in
passing from France to Germany or from Belgium to
TTolland, than he would in passing from New York
into Pennsylvania, or from Illinois into ^linnesota.
The second obstacle which stands in the way of this
continental unitv is the maintenance in the two conn-
tries of Pussia and the Ottoman Empire of the system
of the passport. This passport — a nuisance at one
time almost universal — has gradually retreated east-
wards, until now no one ever asks to look at your pass-
port outside Pussia and Turkey. Tt is not very pleas-
ant for a Pussian or a friend of Pussia to have to

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

i
i

! ►

bracket the two countries together; but in this matter
of passports they are much of a muchness, Russia per-
haps being even the worse of the two. Without a
passport duly vised by Russian consular authorities,
no foreigner can pass into the Russian Empire. With-
out that passport duly surrendered to the police at
e..ch town where he arrives, no foreigner can take up
his abode in Russia. The same thing is true to a less
extent in Turkey. These two countries, therefore,
are outside the pale of passportless civilization. They
belong to the States which, for domestic or other rea-
sons, dare not make their territories free to mankind
to come and to go. The United States of Europe,
therefore, is as the United States of America in three
parts of its surface, so far as travelling is concerned,
plus the irritating reminder by the custom-house of
the existence of frontiers; while over the rest of its
surface it is as the United States of America, plus the
custom-house and the passport.

The great ideal of international freedom and union
is to be found in the post-office. Wherever you see
the red pillar-box, there you see a dumb prophet of
the Millennium. The moment the stamped missive
enters its ever open portal it becomes a citizen of the
universe, free from all custom houses, and protected,
by virtue of the Queen's head which it carries, in all
lands, iri'espective of differences of nationality, law
and religion. The International Postal Union is the
avant-courier or John the Baptist of the Kingdom of
Heaven, in which all frontiers would disappear and

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LINKS AXD HARRIERS

all mankind would be made free of the planet in which
they dwell. Often on my journey I witnessed, with
a feeling of satisfaction not untinged with envy, the
way in which the mail-bags were carried across the
frontier without word or (question, while we luckless
ones, who were not franked with a postage stamp, had
to laboriously carry our luggage to the Zollhaus and
wait until the custom-house official had made a more
or less perfunctory examination of our belongings. It
is true that the customs examination was in most cases
exceedingly formal; in some, as in Switzerland, and
in coming back to England, it was the merest form.
But this only increases your irritation at the exasperat-
ing worry and delay occasioned by a formality so mani-
festly futile. How often did I sigh for the adoption
of Sir Algernon AVest's sensible proposal, by which
all the nuisance of custom-house examination was
to be done away with — at least between England and
France. Bu.t although it is nearly two years since
he made his excellent suggestion, nothing seems as yet
to have come of it.

The only other institution in Europe which can bo
compared to the post-office for the success with which
it has triumphed over the limitations of frontiers and
the restrictions imposed by short-sighted governments
upon the free movement of men and things, is that
marvellous agency by which it is possible for the trav-
eller, with the aid of Circular Xotes, to draw whatever
money he requires wherever he may be. I never used
to cash my Circular T^otes without feeling a dumb

THE IMTED STATERS OE EUROPE

' )

I >

wonder at tlit; iiiarvclloiiH ingenuity of man and the
skill with which he is able to do all things, if only
'^ there is money in it." Instead of having to carry
ronnd with me a pocketful of gold, I simply took in
my pocket-hook a Imndle of Circular Xotes, utterly
valueless to any one who had not got the circular
which must be j)rodu( ed whenever they were cashed.
Armed with these bits of paper, I found in every
caj)ital, Oiie, or two, or sometimes three financial in-
stitutions which were readv at a moment's notice to
pay me down as much money as the Circular ^otes
represented, without any deduction or trouble what-
ever. You give no notice, but simply walk into the
oftice, announce that you want so much money, and
present notes for the amount required. In five or
ten minutes the money is handed to you, calcuhited
carefully at the current rate of exchange of the day,
and you depart, feeling impressed with the perfection
of the organization of credit by which at a thousand
different points in your journey, not in Europe only,
but in other continents, you can convert a bit of paper,
valueless to any one else, into gold, hy producing it
and the corresponding circular in any of the agencies
in connection with the central office. If, after the
fashion of Orientals, you converted your cash into
precious stones, you would only be allowed to enter
the country after having paid tax and toll to the cus-
tom-house; but thanks to the Circular Note you can
snap your fingers at this institution, and cash your
notes in a kingdom where no custom-house officer can

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LEADING IJKITISII AMBASSADOUS OX THE ("ONTIN'ENT

iS'

LIXKS AXD BARRIERS

interfere. Ihe Circular Xote is the nearest approacli
to an international currency wlii.ch we have arrived at,
for unlike coins of the realm, Circular iS'^otes are con-
vertible in every land and at the full current rate of
exchange.

I was exceedingly fortunate in being saved the diffi-
culties of the two worst custom-houses through which
I had to pass. I had a laissez-passev from the Russian
Embassy, which cleared me from all the inquisition
at AVirballen. Thanks to the timely kindness of ^1.
Kroupensky, who has now succeeded ^[. Pavloff at
Pekin, I was able to evade the Turkish custom-house
altogether, as I landed from the Sebastopol steamer
in the Russian guard-boat. Only once was there a
question of paying as much as a single penny on my
higgage. I had bought a Bulgarian peasant dress for
my daughter, and narrowly escaped having to pay
duty upon it as wearing apparel not for my o^vn use,
when I crossed the frontier from Servia into Hungary;
biit the cusiom-house officer was merciful, although
ho mildly lamented that I had not sent it through
under seal. But from first to last, in a tour round
an oval which had London and Sebastopol as its two
extreme points, I had much less inconvenience from
the custom house than what one hundred years ago I
should liave experienced in passing from Rotterdam
to ^'ienna. Tt mav be difficult to see how the custom-
house is to be finallv abolished, but alreadv its incon-
veniences ar(> minimi/ed; and if the fhmanc does not
bear in its visage the evidence of galloping consump-

■i

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Ti/£; UNITED HTATEH OF El ROPE

tion, it seems to be in a decline wliicli, under the
impulse of modern ideas, will probably be accelerated.

As for passports, that is a more difficult question.
Certainly in Turkey and in the states, such as Servia
and Bulgaria, which have been carved out of the ruins
of the Ottoman Empire, the utility of the passport is
not very obvious. Whether it can be dispensed with
in Russia is a matter upon which a non-Russian is not
competent to express an opinion. The utility of the
passport from the point of view of keeping out danger-
ous characters or inconvenient visitors is not very
obvious to the stranger, who soon discovers that the
people whom it is sought to keep out are always those
who have their passports in the most splendid order.
Of course there is a great deal to be said in favor of
a system by which no person can move a step without
an authentic document duly certifying who he is, and
where he comes from, and all about him; but in prac-
tice the passport system falls far short of this ideal.
Those persons who have least reputation have the most
passports, and the less regular a man may be in his
life, the more scrupulous he is that there shall be no
complaint as to the regularity of his official papers.
I am not, however, either defending or complaining
of what exists. I am only endeavoring to explain
what are those things which differentiate the ITnited
States of Europe from the United States of America.

Whon we leave those elements which tend to dis-
union and come to consider those which tend to bring
about the formation of the United States of Europe,

LINKS AND BARRIERS

it will be a surprise to some that the institution of
monarchy holds a high place. AVe are so much under
the influence of the poetry and political writing of
generations when wars were common, that it is diffi-
cult for us to understand that the world has changed
since then. The poetry of the beginning of the cen-
tury has as its note the assumption that tlie wars which
afflicted mankind were the direct product of the rapa-
city of monarchs. The " monarch-murdered soldier "
was an excellent phrase, which has been carried down
for generations. When Byron describes the innocent
mirth of a Spanish festival, he cannot refrain from
exclaiming: —

" Oh, monarchs ! couH ye taste the mirth ye mar,
Not in the toils of glory would ye sweat,
The hoarse dull drum would sleep, and man be happy yet."

lli^

That superstition as to the war-making influence of
monarchy dies hard; but if we look at things as they
are, there is very little room for continuing to cherish
tlie delusion that blinds us to the real sources of tlie
perils which menace the peace of the world. Of this I
was continually beinp" reminded in my journey round
Kiirojie.

The day T arrived at Brussels was the day on which
the memorial mass was being said for the Empress-
Queen, Elizabeth of Austria-TTuucrarv. ITer death bv
tlie knife of the assassin placed one-half of Europe in
mourning; and the death of the Queen of Denmark,
which occurred immediately afterwards, was even

THE UNITED ISTATES OF EUROPE

If'

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more widely felt. The death of " the grandmamma
of Europe," as she was familiarly called, was incident-
ally the cause of delaying the publication of this
" Christmas Annual " until the month of March. Her
daughter, the Dowager Empress of Iluesia, wished to
liave her son, the Emperor Xicholas, at the funeral.
This compelled him to leave Livadia, cross llussia, and
repair to Copenhagen, where he remained for a fort-
night. My interview was thcrefora postjioncd until
his return. These are only trifles, hut they serve as
reminders of the closeness of the family tie which
unites one country with the other. Our own royal
family has ramifications which cover Europe. The
Emperor of Jiussia and the Emperor of Germany are
l)oth nephews of the Prince of Wales, whose brother-
in-law is the King of (Jreece, and whose son-in-law
will be King of Ttoumania.

If the ultimate ideal of Europe is to become one
family without any barriers separating one from the
other — a family, all the members of which are famil-
iar enough to be interested in each other's affairs, to
attend each other's weddings, to go into mourning for
each other's deaths — then Royalty has attained what
the rest of mankind will oidy attain after some cen-
turies. The monarchical families form a group which,
from a physical and physiological point of view, is
even too closely united. Marrying in-and-in has con-
sequences which are not by any means calculated to
contribute to the robustness or to the intellectual vigor
of the stock. Indeed, one eminent man, whom I

LINKS AND BARRIERS

heard at Rome, is devoting- no end of time and atten-
tion to a demonstration of the thesis that all dynasties
are dying out, and must die out by the nature of things
and by the law of the universe. It may be so, but the
process is a slow one, and they will not perish before
they have familiarized mankind with the spectacle of
an international family group, speaking practically
a common language, having common interests, and
capable of understanding each other from the in-
side.

Signer Sonnino, with whom I had a long, interesting-
con versation at Rome, told me that he considered the
coming century would be a monarchical century, and
that that monarchical principle, which had been some-
what depressed since the days of the French Revolu-
tion, was destined to be re-vindicated in the years ^hat
are to come. However that may be, there is no doubt
that our Queen by the vigor of her intellect, the keen-
ness of the interest which she has taken in public af-
fairs, the marvellous memory with which she has been
blessed, and her strong sense of the obligations of
family relationship, has done nmch to reestablish the
monarchical idea. Tier correspondence with the mem-
bers of the royal caste or royal family throughout
Europe is, and has always been, carefully kept up.
TTence, all monarchical States have at their head a
semi-cosmopolitan European fr.mily, capable of acting
as a telephonic system for the Continent.

France, which is outside this roval rinc, mav have
her compensations elsewhere, but she certainly suffers
2

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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

deprivations in the lack of continuity of tradition, and
of the permanence of persons who direct her policy.
The uneasy consciousness of this is one of the causes,
when the compensating advantages of the Republic
seem to fade away, which leads to the perpetual re-
newal of the talk of Restoration, even after thirty
years of the third Republic.

Whether Ave regard the recrudescence of monarchy
as a symptom of reaction or as a sign of progress, there
is no doubt as to its existence. What we have to do
is to make the most of it and to recognize in what way
it makes for progress.

After Royalty, it is probable that the most potent
things tending to make Europeans conscious of the
unity of the Continental Commonwealth are the tele-
graphic agencies, such as Renter's, the Ilavas, and
others, which, chiefly through the daily papers, con-
tinually distribute the political and social gossip of the
Continent among the nations. Let no one overlook
the value of gossip in the formation of the ties which
bind men together. Take away family gossip, and
the family would in most cases become a mere skele-
ton, v/ithout flesh, blood or nervous system. It is by
the kindly gossip of the fireside, in which every one
talks about everybody else, that the sense of family
union is created and preserved. The chatterers of the
telegraph who, in every capital, carefully extract the
kernel of grain from the bushel of chaff, and telegraph
all round the Continent such items of intelligence as
may be of general interest, contribute probably the

LINKS AND BARRIERS

most constantly potent influence that can be discov-
ered in the growth of that common sentiment which
is the precursor of common action in support of the
Commonwealth. Great and ubiquitous is the tele-
graphic agency. Our fathers used to think that the
newspaper represented the highest organized intelli-
gence, seeking day and night for information with
which to feed its ever hungry press. But no news
paper, not even the Times itself, can bear comparison
with the telegraphic agencies, such as Keuter's, the
Ilavas, and the Associated Press, for the collection and
distribution of intelligence. Every great newspaper
is more than a collector of news: it is always a com-
mentator, and usually a preacher of its own ideas. A
telegraphic agency is neither of these things, and dis-
seminates news only. It is creedless alike in politics
and in religion. Its sole duty is to see the nuggetty
fact in the amount of dross brought to surface by the
illimitable labor of the human race, and promptly to
put that nuggetty fact into general circulation.
Hence, no river can burst its dam in Northern Italy,
or in remoter Roumania, and sweep away any appre-
ciable number of the human race to a watery death,
but the fact is served up the next morning at all the
oreakfast tables of the Continent. And here again
the Royalties, in addition to the service which they
render to unity by the creation of a family that is prac-
tically co-extensive with the Continent, are hardly less
useful in the supply of that personal gossip ^\diich is
always most appreciated by the average man and

' I 1

THE irSITED STATES OF EUROPE

woman. The birth and the death, the betrothal and
tlio marriage, the accident, and even the scandals of
tlic Hoyal caste, arc all food for gossip; and in this
fashion tlie telegraph wire and the Royal and Im-
])erial dynasties act and react npon eacli other. The
King of Lillipnt cannot sprain liis ankle without the
fact ])eing a snl)ject for comment and of interest
tlironghont the whole (Continental area. A thousand
greater men than lie might break their necks with-
out the fact being considered of sufficient interest
to be chronicled. Therein consists the superior
utility of the Kingdom of Lilliput. Thrones are but
pedestals on which human beings stand visibly above
the crowd, and therefore objects of more general
human interest than any of the undistinguished mass
below.

The railway and the telegraph are both becoming
more and more international instituti >ns. There are
still, no doubt, shreds of nationalism left in the man-
agement of the telegraphs of the world, but on the
Avhole tliev tend more and more to become a common

■

nerve-centre of the whole human race. But the rail-
way and telegraph arc subjects which must be dealt
with in a separate chapter.

There is a steady approximation to unity through-
out the Continent. AVe have not yet a European coin-
age, but throughout the Latin countries there is an
international currency, and sooner or later Europe will
have a common currencv.

The railways and the telegraphs are inventions of

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LiyKS AXD liMHtlEnS

131

this c'ciitiiry, and they have, therefore, adapted tlieiii-
selves, ahiiost from the outset, to the complex circum-
stances of their environment.

It is different with the great rivers of Europe, which
were international highways long before Watt and
Stephenson taught steam to do the haulage of the
world, or electricians harnessed the lightning as the
Ilermes of the modern 01ymi)us. All the traffic upon
such great arterial Avaterways of the Continent as the
Kliine and the Danube has long been subject to in-
ternational control and regulation. At this point wo
reach a further stage in the evolution of the United
States of Europe. In the case of the railways it may
be regarded to a great extent as unconscious, inasmuch
as the Internationa] Railway Bureau has no direct con-
nection with the Foreign Offices of the world. It is
different with the Hiverain Commissions. I'he navi-
gation of the Danube is indeed one of the most inter-
esting illustrations of the way in which the European
Powers modify the machinery of their joint action for
the purpose of securing efficiency of working. At the
outset, the River Danube was under the control of
the six great Powers and Turkey. But the practical
management of the river now is intrusted to a com-
mission of th(^ Riverain States, plus one delegate from
the great Powers. That is to say, the International
Danube is managed by a committee o^ five, one dele-
gate being appointed for six months by each of the
great Powers in turn, while there are four permanent
delegates appointed by the Riverain States of Austria,

til

THE I' SI TED l^TATES OF EL ROPE

Bulgaria, Koiuiiunia and Servia. This is interesting
in more ways than one, because it establishes the prin-
ciple of the api)uintnient of a European delegate on
the princi])le of rotation. Each representative of the
great Powers only holds his seat for six months, so that
each great Power has only one turn in three years.
The European delegate, however, altliough represent-
ing his own State, is in reality the representative of
the United States of Europe, and in that capacity de-
fends the general interest, in case it should be attacked,
in the interest of the Kiverain States.

Another principle which it embodies is that a great
Power when it happens to have local interest is not
debarred from having two representatives when its
turn comes round to appoint a general delegate.
Austria, for instance, has its permanent delegate, and
once in three years it has a general representative as
one of the Committee of the great Powers in the affairs
of Europe. The third principle, we shall see, bears
directly upon the question of the status of Bulgaria.
According to the Treaty of Berlin, Bulgaria is part of
the Ottoman Empire. It is a tributary State. Strictly
speaking, it is the Sultan, and not the Prince of Bul-
garia, who should nominate the delegate on the Danu-
bian Commission, who represents the Riverain Prin-
cipality. The Sultan, however, can only appoint a
general delegate as one of the signatories of the Treaty
of Berlin, while the right of Bulgaria to appoint its
permanent reprcsentati^'e on the Riverain Commission
is recognized. Acting on this precedent, we shall find

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LINKS AND BARRIERS

that Bulgaria will expect to be represented at the
Peace Conference, altliongli it would, I believe, be
the first occasion at wliicli a ("ributary Principality
has claimed to sit at the (!Ouncil-board with its own
suzerain.

From the regulation of international rivers on the
Continent it is bnt a short step to the European Con-
cert, which primarily exists for the safeguarding of
that great international waterway known as the Bos-
])horus and the Dardanelles. Peduced to its essence,
this, and very little else but this, is the basis of tlie
Concert of the Powers formally estal)lished by the
Treaty of Paris in 1850, and asserted anew at the
Berlin Congress of 1878. Behind all the fine prin-
ciples which are invoked in the diplomatic instruments
governing the complex congeries of problems known
as the Eastern Question, the bedrock of the whole, the
kernel, the central essence, is this supreme question
as to the international regulation of the waterwavs
connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Be-
cause the Turk squats astride of both sides of these
famous Straits, the Turk has been a European interest
for at least a century. He is no longer regarded as
an exclusively British interest, but his charmed life
is due to the fact that he is keeper of the Dardanelles
and the Bosphorus, and in that capacity he possesses
the merit of utility, which in the eye of many is more
efficacious than charity in covering a multitude of
sins. In order to deal with a question of such inter-
national interest, international action was necessary.

I -

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

Hence the intervention of the principle of the Euro-
pean Concert, that great and fertile principle which,
more than anything else, holds within it the promise
and potency of every form of international develop-
ment.

If''
iJ

i J I

4' I ^

',«. V

i-;

CHAPTER III

THE CAPITAL OF THE COXTII^ENT

On returning from Rome, at one time the capital of
the world, and still the capital of that section of the
Christian Church M'hich recognizes in the Roman
Bishop the successor of St. Peter, I made a detour in
order to v. dt Berne, which is the nearest approxima-
tion there is in Europe to a common capital. At Berne
it was my good fortune to make the acquaintance of
M. IS^uma Droz, the head of the International Railway
Bureau, which is one of four international administra-
tions that have their seats in the federal capital of
Switzerland. M. Xuma Droz is a very remarkable
man, and I met no one in my tour whose conyersation
was at once so intelligent, so reasonable, and so hope-
ful. A man still in the prime of life, he has served
his country in almost every capacity, from the Presi-
dent of the Republic downwards. "When the Euro-
pean Powers were puzzled as to the best international
representative to nominate for tlie Cioyernorship of
Crete, their choice f' ^^ upon M. Droz, and afterwards,
when the task of restoring order was entrusted to
Prince George, it M-as again to ^I. Xuma Droz that
they turned when they wished to provide a typical,

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■' . 1

THE UNITED kiTATE^ OF EUROPE

• C^ '

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sensible, trustworthy European to hold the balance
even between the various interests in the island. A
man of judicial temperament, with great administra-
tive exjierience, M. Xnma Uroz is at once a patriotic
Swiss and a broad-minded citizen of the world.
Should he 'e selected as the re resentative of Switzer-
land at the Conference of Poacf, there will be no dele-
gate from any of the great Powers who will command
greater respect or whose judgment will carry greater
weight.

In February last year M. Droz read a paper at a
conference in Zlirich, in which he described the organ-
ization and the work of the international bureaus at
Berne. It is one of the most interesting and sugges-
tive papers that I came across in my run round Europe.
In it he described with admirable perspicacity and
brevity the rapid growth of these central bureaus,
which are to the United States of Europe like the ice-
crystals which form on the surface of the water before
the cold is sufRcientlv intense to freeze the whole sur-
face into one solid sheet. These international bureaus
represent the evolution of what may be called the Con-
tinental ganglia of nerve centres, and each of them
may be regarded as an embodied prophecy of the com-
ing of the United States of Europe. And not only
the United States of Europe, but the United States of
the World. For the area which three of those admin-
istrations represent is far wider thjin that of any single
continent. As M. Droz said, there is no doubt that
U^e formation of these international bureaus is one of

THE CAPITAL OF THE CONTINENT 27

the most interesting and hopeful signs of our epoch —
that these international organizations have been cre-
ated by the Governments in order to serve the ends
oi civilization. As a Switzer, M. Droz is naturally
proud of the fact that four of these should have their
head in the capital of his own country. There are
other bureaus which have their seats elsewhere. For
instance, the International Bureau of Metrical
Weights and IMeasures is domiciled in Paris. The
Bureau Geodesique is seated at Berlin, while ^t Brus-
sels there are two international bureaus, one which
arranges for the publication of the customs tariffs of
all nations, and the other is concerned with the sup-
pression of the slave-trade. But at Berne they glory
in the possession of four, as many as are to be
found in all the rest of the world put together.
These are the bureaus of the International Postal
Union, the Telegraphic Union, the Union of Inter-
national Pailways, and that which looks after Patents,
Copyrights and Trade-marks, which are sunmied
together under the common title of " Intellectual
Property."

AVhen we were children, we used to hear much con-
cerning " Commerce, the white-winged peace-maker,"
and have only, after a series of disillusions, wakened
to the fact that in the present day commerce has be-
come the pretext, if not the cause, for most of our
international quarrels. It is, therefore, with a pleas-
ant surprise, such rs one feels when discovering that
a fairy-tale of the nursery had been but a poetic em-

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bodiiiiciit of a seientiiic fact, that we come upon the
following passage in M. Droz's paper : —

It is the chief glory of commerce to be the principal agent
in drawing nations together. It is of no use to try to isolate
them by making the walls of the custom-house as thick and
as high as possible; trade has an expansive force and a
subtle pervasiveness so great that in the end it always
succeeds in overcoming or overthrowing these obstacles.
It is useless to try to keep up with jealous and also legiti-
mate solicitude the national spirit of each people; commerce
knows how to combine the great interests which they have
in common, thanks to which all nations only form one
universal family. As far as trade is concerned, diversity of
languages is no barrier, as they can be learned; distance is
annihilated, or, at least, reduced to its narrowest limits.
For the most part, trade asks little from the State, as it is
accustomed to settle its own difficulties in its own way,
and the State rather hinders it in its movements. But there
are two things which it needs most certainly and most im-
peratively: one is rapidity and exactitude in its relations,
the other is legal security.

Of these various Lnreaus, no^v located in what may
be regarded as the incipient capital of the Continent,
the first, which was established in 18G5, related to
telegraphs. The second was the Postal Union, which
was established in 1874; while the bureau dealing with
trade-marks and patents was founded in 1883, and
its function was extended to deal with copyrights in
188G. The International Railway Bureau, over which
^r, Droz presides, was the latest born of all, having
only come into existence in 1890. The motive which
led to the foundation of these bureaus w-as in all cases
the same. Telegraphs, post-offices and railways had

TRE CAPITAL OF THE CONTINENT

relations with each other before they established a
coinraon centre to act both as a clearing-lionse and as
a supremo conrt of appeal for the settlement of tlieir
various differences, just in the same way as the present
governments of Europe have relations with each
other. But before the conventions establishing tlie
bureaus, these relations created no end of friction and
caused almost as many questions as those wliicli at
present exist between neighboring States in the polit-
ical sphere. M. Droz says: —

Letters used to pass from one administration to another,
by each of which a tax was imposed, and this caused ex-
pense and delay. It was the same with telegraphic mes-
sages. There was no international protection for inventors,
proprietors cf trade-marks, or authors. And with regard
to railway transport, new regulations were found at every
frontier, the times of delivery were not the same, indem-
nities in case of loss or damage depended on the caprice of
officials; it was impossible to discover who was in fault,
or against whom a charge could be made. It was the most
utter juridical confusion.

It is the difficulties of the vroild which pave the way
for the solutions of its problems. But for our difhcul-
ties we should make no progress — a salutary doctrine
which is a constant consolation to the reformer. Tliesc
l)ureaus were not established without considerable
misgivings, and even now, although they have func-
tioned and functioned well for vears, it is necessarv for
them to be very prudent, since the respective adminis-
trations of the various States are as jealous of their
autonomy and as prompt to resent any in^ingement

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of their sovereignty as if they were high contracting
parties dealing with territorial or political rights.
Keverthpless, they have managed in spite of those
jealousies and misgivings to do very good work — do
it so quietly that hardly any one knows it is being
done at all. As all these bureaus are founded upon
the same general principle, it is reasoitable to expect
that t]i^ United States of Europe will ])robably follow
the same road in the evolution of the Continental

organization.

M. T)roz says :-

All the common features of these various Unions depend
upon agreements, the wording of which is decided at con-
ferences, partly technical and partly diplomatic, which meet
from time to time to inquire into the changes and improve-
ments which can be introduced into the general regulations.
All of them, with the exception of that which has to do with
railway transport, are concluded for an unlimited period,
and the Staves can accede to them or withdraw at any
time, by a simple declaration made to the Swiss Federal
Council. With regard to the railways, on the contrary, the
agreement is renewable by each State every three years, and
the States may be consulted about the adhesion of new mem-
bers. This last point is very important considering the in-
terests v/hich are at stake. It would not be desirable to have
in the Union railways which are either insolvent, or belong
to countries whose law and whose law courts did not offer
the most complete security.

The cost of these international offices is very small.
In 1896 the cost of the four was altogether only 370,-
000 francs, or, let us say, £15,000, a sum which is
divided proportionately among the various States. In
the railways, for instance, the charge is based upon the
number of kilometers under the control of the Con-

THE CAPITAL OF THE CONTINENT

vention. The importance and the nature of the func-
tions of these international bureaus, which may be
regarded as avant-vouriers of the Tnited States, of
Europe that is to come, may best l)e studied by briefly
describing each of them with some detaiL

Beginning with the Telegraphic Bureau, M. Droz
savs: —

The working agreement applies to forty-six countries,
containing 846 millions of inhabitants. It requires that
States should have a sufficient number of direct telegraphic
lines, for international telegraphy; it recognizes the r'rrht of
every person to make use of them; it guarantees the secrecy
of all communications; it fixes the order of priority for the
dispatch of telegrams, with regard to their nature; it
authorizes the sending of messages in cipher; it settles a
universal charge, which is based, for European countries,
on groups of three, ten, or fifty words, and for lands beyond
the ocean, on the single word; it accepts the franc as the
unit of coinage; it undertakes to send reply-paid and regis-
tered telegrams.

The bureau has many duties. Its first task is to
collect, to coordinate and to publish information of
every kind relating to international telegraphy. In
discharging this duty, it publishes a general map of
all the great telegraphic communications of the world,
and other maps more detailed, one for Europe and the
other for the rest of the world outside of Europe. It
publishes a telegraphic journal, and carefully edits and
reedits a list of the telegraph stations of the world.
These stations now number 80,000, and as they are
constantly chanffinc, it is no wonder that the list is
now in the sixth edition. This is not so lieavv a task

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as tliat which is inulertakcu by the Postal Union Bu-
reau, for tlicrc are iiOO,000 ^wst-ofHccs in the worhl.
The bnrcau, tlicreforc, it will be seen, acts as a kind
of intelligence department for the telegraphs of the
world. Incidentally the bnrean has undertaken a task
which, althongh a very long way removed from that
of the construction of a cosmopolitan language, never-
theless points in that direction.

In passing on to the Postal Union, it is interesting
to note that the formation of this International Bureau
was first mooted by the United States of America even
before their great Civil War was over. It is not less
suggestive that the proposal, although uiade in 1863,
led to no result beyond the publication of resolutions
as to desiderata in postal administration which had no
binding effect on any of the parties who took part in
the Conference. Nevertheless, these desiderata being
definitely formulated and ngreed to as desirable by the
representatives of the various Powers, a foundation
was laid, upon which the Union was founded eleven
years later. The first Postal Conference was held in
Paris; the second, which was summoned on the initi-
ative of Germany, met in Berne, where an inscription
in black marble commemorates the signing of the Con-
vention which established the 2^d. rate for all letters
within the limits of the Postal Union. It marked the
transition of an organization previously organized
upon a particularist national basis to the wider and
more rational status of a cosmopolitnn institution. At
the present moment the Postal Union includes fifty-

THE CAPITAL 01' THE COSTLSEyT

ized

and

pfty-

nine States, or i^roups of colonial possessions, contain-
ing, roughly stated, 1,000,000,000 inhabitants. The
burean serves as a eleariiig-honse between the admin-
istrations; it is ])('rpetnally (iigaged in settling dis-
puted questions which arise and points as to the (ques-
tion of interpretation, and it also acts as a kind of arbi-
tral judge on litigious questions between the various
administrations. In this case also it is very inqiortant
to note, with a view to the future international devel-
opment of the United States of Europe, that it is pos-
sible to refer questions to the bureau for its opinion
without entering into any preliminary obligation to
abide by its decision.

The Administration which deals with " intellc^uial
property " was founded by the Convention of Paris
in 1883; and it now includes sixteen States, with a
population of 305,000,000 inhabitants. There is no
need to describe its operations at length. Their nature
can best be understood by the following statement of
the services which the bureau is prepared to render: —

If, therefore, you have ever any need of precise informa-
tion concerning industrial property whicli you cannot obtain
elsewhere, here you have an almost gratuitous source — the
cost is one franc per consultation — a source at once im-
partial and exact. In 1896, this bureau received or sent out
1,554 communications in connection with its inquiry de-
partment.

Another institution which places this bureau in direct
contact with the public is that dealing with the international
registration of trade-marks. The special arrangement
relative to this is at the present time binding on nine States:
Belgium, Brazil, Spain, France, Italy, Holland, Portugal,
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Switzerland and Tunis. If you wish to protect a trade-
mark in these countries, you may, after having registered
it in the federal Bureau, send it to the international Bureau,
together with a sum of 100 francs. This means a saving of
time as well as of money, obviating, as it does, the necessity
of registering in each separate country.

The Union for the Protection of the Kights of
Authors includes thirteen countries with 534,000,000
inhabitants.

In the fourth great organization, which deals with
International Hallways, England has no part. There
arc only ten States represented on this International
Institution, viz.: Germany, Austria-Hungary, Den-
mark, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Holland and Swit-
zerland. The network of railway thus submitted to
the jurisdiction of the bureau is 173,000 kilometres.
It deals at present only with the goods traffic; but al-
ready the Russians, who somewhat oddly (according
to English ideas) seem much more frequently to take
the initiative in progressive internationalism than
England, suggest that passenger traffic should also be
placed under the control of the bureau: —

The Convention is remarkable in this, that it unites all
the European railroads belonging to it in one network of
rails, worked under a common tariff as regards international
transport, and in such a manner that all the managing de-
partments are conjointly answerable, the one with the other,
as regards any goods they have undertaken to carry, so that
any one can sue either the sending or receiving agents with-
out taking into consideration on what part of the system the
damage or delay arose. Definite sums have been fixed In
case of loss or damage, or if there is delay in delivering
goods, for the mutual claims of sender and receiver, for the

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TUU CAPITAL OF THE COyTINENT

demands of the customs, etc. All that concerns the trans-
port of merchandise is arranged in so complete a manner
that Swiss federal law has been copied word for word from
the Convention.

The Imrcau has a list of 2,000 international tarifTs
to publish and a catalogue of all the railway stations
open to international traltie, of which there are about
45,000. The International Railway Bun^iu is prac-
tically an international arbitration court dealinc; with
great institutions, whose revenue is considerably
greater than that of many States: —

It acts as an umpire to shorten litigation between different
administrations when the different parties desire it. Here
we have an institution which is of quite a novel character,
and which is of great interest — a permanent tribunal in-
stituted to regulate international differences.

Generally speaking, railway bureaus arrange their dis-
putes by special arbitration for each department of traffic.
But for all that, interesting cases are brought before the
permanent tribunal.

These judicial functions, and those by which the Central
Office has the right of intervention, at the request of one
of the parties concerned, to arrange matters which have
been left in abeyance, are destined in time to become more
important still. It is possible to foresee the establish-
ment of a court to facilitate monetary arrangements be-
tween different administrations. When the institution,
which is still in its infancy, has developed, there is no doubt
that new departments will come into existence, and that
those which already exist will develop still further. For
Instance, Russia has proposed to regulate the transport of
travellers and of merchandise, and this proposal has been
already taken into consideration by the administration.

]\I Droz dwells with natural and patriotic pride on
the fact that these bureaus, domiciled in Switzerland

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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

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and officered almost entirely by Swiss, have neverthe-
less succeeded in functioning to the satisfaction of all
the States whose interests they represent. It is a fact
of good augury for the future pacific evolution of the
Continental organism. To have assisted in the devel-
opment of these centres for international organization
is one of the services which Switzerland has rendered
to mankind. Is it, then, too much to describe Berne,
capital of Switzerland and licadquarters of so many
international administrations, as the incipient Capital
of the United States of Europe?

Another potent factor in human progress is the in-
ternational luagon-Ut which has hitherto attracted
little attention from the statesman or the philosopher.
It is a dumb thing, the icagon-lit, a dull, mechanic
thing, inanimate, with neither heart, soul, conscience,
nox* reason, but nevertheless it has achieved results
wliich prophets and apostles and poets and seers have
despaired of. Its fatherland is co-extensive with the
metal track of tlie Continent, and every time it passes
it erases, although with imperceptible touch, the fron-
tiers which divide the nations. It is, indeed, the high-
est exam])le of lunnan ingenuity in the matter of a
locomotive dwelling-place. AVhat the Atlantic steamer
is to the ocean, the wagon-lit is to the solid land. Its
passengers no sooner cross its threshold than they be-
come citizens of the world in a very real sense. N^ot
even tln^ humble snail of the hedgerow is more com-
pletely self-contained than your traveller in a wagon-
Jil. lie has his own apartment, his bed-chamber, his

THE CAPITAL OF THE COyTINENT

dining-room, his lavatory ; tlie whole country is spread
out before him on either side, in one endless gallery
and panorama of living pictures. lie can be alone or
in society as he pleases, lie can take his constitu-
tional by walking down the long corridors while the
train is speeding along at the rate of forty or fifty miles
an hour. 1'he conductor waits ujwn him as a valet,
the chef cooks for him, all manner of wine is provided
for his delectation, he lives in a peripatetic palace as
comfortably and as luxuriously as he could do in any
hotel on the Continent. For him even the barrier of
the douane is, if not abolished, at least minimized, and
in many cases the examination of luggage is made on
the car without any necessity for carrying of packages
across the barrier to the place of revision.

Comparo for one moment the ease with which I
travelled around Europe, using the international
ivagon-Ut wherever it was accessible, and the difficul-
ties with which any monarch or prince of the blood
would have had to deal only one hundred years ago in
making the same tuiir. Xeither in speed, in comfort,
nor economv could tlu! ureatest monarch in the world
have traversed the same distance which a plain plebe-
ian now covers without the slightest sense of strain or
of physical exertion. Locomotion has really become
not so much an exercise as a luxurv, and instead of
regarding a journey of a thousand miles as an enter-
prise entailing exertion and exposure, we have come
to regard it as more or less a mode of recuperative
recreation.

1 ,1

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CIIArTEK TV

THE EUROPEAN CONCERT

"No more signal instance of the possibility of mo-
mentary aberration on the part of statesmen and peo-
ples can be imagined than tlie (extraordinary way in
which Mr. Gladstone and many of his followers took
to blaspheming the European Concert in the last years
of his life. All the cheap wit of the newspaper men
of the world was launched npon the European Con-
cert: it was slow; it was unwieldy; it might be a steam-
roller, but a steam-roller which was stuck in the mud.
A perfect hailstorm of criticisms and witticisms held
up to ridicule and contempt what was, after all, the
only principle which the European nations have yet
discovered for the regulation of their joint affairs with-
out bloodshed. Apart from its humanitarian aspect,
the great political merit of ^h\ Gladstone's Eastern
agitation of 1870 to 1S78 was due to his advocacy of
the ])rinciple of the European Concert, and the grava-
men of his impeachment of Lord Beaconsfield's harum-
scarum Jingo policy Avas that he had wantonly de-
stroyed the great instrument l)y which any improve-
ments could be effected in the East. Lord Salisbury,
fortunately, learned liis lesson well, and through good

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THE ElIfOI'EAN COXCEHT

report and tlirougli ill ho has cleaved to the principle
of concerted action in dealing' with the Eastern (Ques-
tion. In that Concert we have not onlv the germ of
tlie United States of Europe, but an actual evolution
and realization, although still very imperfect, of the
conception of a federal centre of the Continent, which
can not onlv deliberate, but on occasion can act. The
Xew Year has opened auspiciously with the triumph
— tardy but nevertheless genuine — of the principle
of concerted action in Crete. The four Powers,
acting in concert, have at last succeeded in expelling
the Turkish troops from Crete without the exertion
of any more than police force. There have been no
pitched battles, and the Crescent has given place to
the Cross without any of the desperate trials of
strength between the Turk and the Creek which have
marked the concession of autonomv to everv other
Turkish province. There were massacres, no doubt,
which might have been avoided; but there was no war:
there was only an operation of police. There is in the
settlement of C^retan att'airs a welcome precedent, in-
dicating the road along wliich humanity has to travel.
When the I.'nited States of Europe ome into or-
ganic being as complete as that already enjoyed by the
United States of America, they will still need armed
forces to execute the decisions of the Federal (lovern-
ment. It will be an international police rather than an
international soldiery. Mankind ])asses through regu-
lar stages in its progress towards peace. First, there is
the primitive state of universal war, iu which every man

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THE UXITJJJ) STATES OF EUROPE

is free to slav his fellow-miin, if lie can and if he will.
From that stage it is by a natural process of easy grada-
tion that w(,' arrive at a i)eriod when the right of levy-
ing war is i)ractieally contined to powerful individuals,
feudal ehieftains and the like. They exercised the
right of private war, which degenerated in many cases
into brigandage, out of which Europe emerged, thanks
to the evolution of the soldier. The trained fighting
man of the central ])ower, whatever his faults may be,
nevertheless represents an immense stride in progress
from the armed bands of the soldiers of fortune and
feudal chiefs who tilled Kurope with bloodshed in the
later J\Iiddle Ages. AVe are now on the verge of the
next ste]) of evolution — the conversion of the soldier
into the policeman, 'llie final stage, of course, will
come when humanitv has attained such measure of
moral develo])ment as to stand in no need of coercive
authority at all, when every one, as the American
humorist puts it, '' can do as he darned well pleases,"
but when every one will only please to do what is right
aud just to his fellow-men. Thnt ultimate ideal of
the Christian and of the Anarchist lies far ahead, but
on the road thither stands the evolution of the soldier
into the policeman. Put ^"his will not be attained
until the United States of Kurope have come into for-
mal and juridical existence. In Crete we can see it on
the way. Crete also has established the great prin-
ciple that the unity of the European Concert is not
destroyed when a couple of its members refuse to take
any active ])art in giving effect to its decisions. We

J I

THE EUItOPEAX COXCERT

are therefore within nieasurahle range of seeing the
establishment of a real federated Europe which will
not be crippled by the principle of the liherum veto.

At one time there seemed a great danger that this
mistake wonld be committed. By the liherum relo,
in the old Polish kingdom any one member of the
Assembly could defeat any proposition by simply ut-
tering his protest. In like manner it has been held
that the six Powers must all keep step or they can do
nothing at v.^i\ The necessary consequence was that
the Powers were often reduced to impotence. But
this is a passing phase. Sooner or later — probably
sooner than later — it will be discovered tluit the lihe-
I'um veto will be as fatal to Euro])o as it proved to
Poland. In the European Areopagus decisions will
have to be taken without absolute unanimity, and in
this, as in other things, the minority will have to yield
to the majority. Of course, each of the great Powers
will always have a sovereign right to go to war to en-
force its protest, if it should feel so disposed; but there
is a very great difference between going to war to en-
force your veto and securing the rejection of any pro-
posal by simply recording your dissent.

In this respect, Mr. Gladstone took a very significant
initiative in the year 1 S80. K^o one had insisted more
strongly -.ipon the maintenance of the European Con*
cert as the one weapon with which it was possible to
extort anvthing from the Sultan. But when IMr.
Gladstone took in hand the task of enforcing the pro-
visions of the Berlin Treatv, he found that one or more

THE VXITED .STATES OF EUROPE

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of tbe Powers were disposed to liang back. He suc-
(•eeded with great difficulty in mustering an inter-
national fleet in the Adriatic for the purpose of induc-
ing the Turk to make the necessary cession of territory
to ^lontenegro, but when the question arose as to what
further measures should be adopted to enforce submis-
sion to the demands which Europe had formulated,
France and (Jermany drew back. Russia and Italy
supported Mr. (Jladstone's generous initiative. Mr.
Gladstone had then to decide M'hat should be done.
If he had adopted the Jihernm veto theory of the Con-
cert, and had meekly acquiesced in the doctrine that
nothing shoukl be done unless all the Powers were
agreed ns to what that something should be, the Turk
would have snapped his fingers at the Powers, and
vital clauses of the Berlin Treatv would m^ver have
been executed. P)Ut ^Fr. Gladstone fortunately was
made of different material. All tlie Powers had
agreed as to what should be done. I'lie Turk himself
has siiined the treatv which ceded territorv to Mon-
ten(\iiro and Greece. There was, therefore, unanimity
of opinion as to what sliould b'^ done; there was only
difference of opinion as to how to carry it into effect.
France, Germany, and Austria hung back, but Mr.
(iladstone, with llussia and Italy at his back, decided
to seize the Turkish custom-house at Smvrna, in order
to enforce the Sultan's submission to the mandate of
Europe. The three Powers which abstained did not,
althoueh then- murmured and held aloof, absolutelv
veto any such action on the part of their allies. Had

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THE EUROPEAN CONCERT

they done so, it would have been difficult for Mr.
Gladstone to proceed, for Europe would then have
been equally divided, three against three. As the
matter stood, the three who were bent on action did
not allow the refusal of the support of the others to
paralyze their action. If in 189G Lord Salisbury
could have secured the support of two other Powers,
it is possible that he would have dealt as drastically
with the Turk as ]\[r. Gladstone. Unfortunately, in
the recent crisis we had not even a single Power at
our back, and some of the Powers were believed to be
ready to oppose our isolated action even by force of
arms.

Under these circumstances, with a strong majority
in the European ( ouncil Chamber against action, the
minority can only submit until such time as it has
converted itself into a majority. It is probable that
for some time to come the European (Concert will con-
tinue to insist upon unanimity in defining the pro-
posals which are to be made to the Turk, but the
method of securing compliance therewith Avill be de-
cided by a majority vote.

AVe have come very near adopting this principle in
the case of Crete. When it became evident that sub-
mission to the will of Europe in Crete would entail
expense and would mortally offend the Turk, Ger-
manv withdrew and was followed bv Austria. Thev
did not actually protest against the enforcement of the
decree of Europe, but thoy repudiated any responsi-
bilitv, and declined to take anv share in the active

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operations. Undeterred by this shrinking from the
logical consequences of their acts, the four Powers
went on, and succeeded in putting the matter through,
although not, unfortunately, until the conscience of
England had been stirred up by the slaying of several
of our own soldiers. Tnese details, however, will
shrink out of sight when the historian of the future
'"«,. vo describe the evolution of the United States
c. Old AVorld. The broad fact is that the six

Povv'ers i . ^'ng decreed, the four Powers carried out
the decree. AVlien success was achieved, the spokes-
man of the abstaining Powers publicl}'' approved of
what was done, and remarked that four Powers were
probably a more effective instrument than six in en-
forcing a policy agreed upon by all. It is an awkward
question whether the four Powers would have ven-
tured to put the thing through, if the two, instead of
merely deserting, had taken up an active policy of
protest against any further military or naval action in
Crete. Such an attitude at some future crisis will
probably test the cohesion and the determination of
the majority of the European Powers.

Everything points in the direction of Europe having
so much to do in providing for the liquidation of the
Ottoman Empire that the six foreign ministers of the
great Powers will become more and more a European
Cabinet, who will learn the habit of working together
under the daily pressure of events. If so, it would
seem as if the Turk were going to make amends in the
final years of his reign for the innumerable atrocities

THE EUROPEAN CONCERT

which have been his cliief resource in government
since the time he entered Europe. For if Europe can
be accustomed to act practically as a unity, it wii in
time bring about the United States of Europe, wiiich
will be none the less welcome because it will be born
of nnitual fear and distrust rather than of brotherly
love and neighborly confidence.

In the old myth, when Jupiter bore Europa across
the sea, he landed her in tlie Island of Crete, where
she bore three sons — Alinop Sarpedon, and Rhada-
manthus. It was a curious coi> ndence that a Euro-
pean army commissioned by tlie six great Powers, and
acting under the collective r^rders of Europe, should
for the first time have "uade its appearance on the
Island of Crete. But tl.o coincidence was of happy
omen, that the new Europa may bring forth, if not
Minos the lawgiver, and Rhadamanthus the inexorable
judge, at least a system of international law which will
be interpreted by an international tribunal.

In discussing elsewhere the question as to the forces

which would tend to luring the United States of Europe

into the most visible and tangible existence, I pointed

out that there were two elements that were needed if

the Federation of Europe was to be attained by the

same road as that by which other federations had been

brought about on a similar scale: —

The first and the most necessary is the existence of some
extraordinary force sufficiently powerful to necessitate the
union of those whose existence it threatens. In other
words, in order to found a Kingdom of Heaven it is neces-
sary that you must have an effective working Devil. John

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THE UXJTJJD STATERS OF EiJiOPE

Bull in the eighteenth century was the incarnation of evil,
in protest against which the American Union came into
existence.

In our own century it was the menace of French aggres-
sion which alone possessed sufficient force to overcome the
centrifugal tendencies of the German ijeoples. Where are
we to find an adequate Devil to overcome the force of inertia
as well as the more active elements of national rivalry and
race antipathies, so as to bring about the federation of
Europe? The other element which is lacking is a central
power sufficiently strong to compel the recalcitrant States
to come into the alliance. Of course it is a nobler ideal that
free and equal States should voluntarily, of their own good-
will, unite on a basis of absolute indei^ ndence. But human
nature is not made that way. There is usually a recalcitrant
minority which needs to be compelled to volunteer. Nearly
every European State, England not excepted, represents the
result of a process in which a strong central power has
gradually crushed all rivals and established authority which
is now recognized by consent, by the summary process of
beheading or slaughtering those whose devotion to their
private and local interests led them to refuse to cooperate
in the larger unity. The most helpful analogies are to be
found in the United States of America and the Republic of
Switzerland. There the federation was established by the
cooperation of the sovereign States without the need for
the intervention of any predominant central power; but
alike in Switzerland and the United States, the federation
which began in goodwill had to be enforced by the armed
hand, and we need not be surprised if the United States of
Europe only gets itself into material existence after con-
siderable bloodshed. That, however, is a detail, and it is
a thousand times better that men should be killed in order
that their corpses should pave the way to the reign of law,
than that they should be slaughtered merely to perpetuate
the existing anarchy. In looking round for the necessary
Devil whose evil influence is strong enough to compel the
European States to federate, we fail to find any excepting
our old friend the Assassin at Constantinople.

TJU'J EUIWI'IJAX COXCERT

The Turk, 1 admitted, although evil, was hardly
important enough to i)lay the great role; and yet, fail-
ing him, I did at that time not see where to find any
ether. The second indispensable condition was to
find a leadir who would marshal the forces making
for union and lead them to victory. Two years ago
it seemed doubtful whether such a leader could be
found. Last year brought us light on both subjects,
for it brought us a leader in the person of the Tsar,
and in hie Rescript he indicated a danger quite suffi-
ciently grave to overcome the force of inertia, as well
as the more active elements of national rivalry and
race antipathies. In the year 1897 Lord Salisbury
himself — a man not given to indulge in day-dreams —
put an unerring finger upon this sore point. Speaking
at the Mansion House on i^ovember 9th, 1897, after
dwelling upon the ever-increasing competition in
armaments among the nations, Jjord Salisbury said: —

The one hope that we have to prevent this competition
(in armaments) from ending in a terrible effort of mutual
destruction, which will be fatal to Christian civilization —
the one hope that we have is that the Powers may gradually
be brought together to act together in a friendly spirit on all
subjects of difference that may arise, until at last they shall
be welded together in some international constitution which
shall give to the world, as the result of their great strength,
a long spell of unfettered commerce, prosperous trade and
continued peace.

That was Lord Salisbury's one hope. When a year
later the Peace Rescript of the Tsar appeared, it was
evident that it was a hope equally entertained at St.

1 1

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77/ iv' uxiTun sTAri'js OF Evnopi':

l*etcrsl)urg. Except in international action, tlicro
was no liopc of escaping' from a peril which, un-
checked, would overwheiui civilization in ruin. I
marvel at my own hh'ndness when, writing;' in 1<S{)7, I
failed to p(»rceive what was piaiidy manifest under our
very eyes. Compared with the catastrophe so clearly
foreseen and descrihed hy the Tsar, the dangers
involved in the ])artition of the Ottonuui Empire fade
into utter insignificance, ^ly only excuse is that I
was no blinder than the majority of mankind appear
to he even to-day when the clarion call from St. Peters-
burg is echoing through the world. So now we have
the necessary stimulus in the revelation of a visible
danger, and at the same time we have at the head of
the family of nations a ruler young enough, brave
enough, and enthusiastic enough to undertake a task
from which the rest of his contemporaries have shrunk
in despair.

I do not claim for Nicholas II. of Russia that he
towers aloft above his contemporaries, or that he, who
Is the most modest of men, has any aspirations to play
the role of the founder of the European Common-
wealth. I only say that he, more than any sovereign
in Europe, has the eye to see and the courage to say the
essential truth of the situation. It is probable that
he himself but dimly realizes whither his initiative
will lead him. The British people v.'lio, in Sceley's
famous phrase, " founded an empire in sheer absence
of mind," are the last people in the world to demand
that those wdio do great things should know before-

TJii: i:riiOPiJA\ cose hut

4!)

hand what tlioy arc ahont. Ihif if the iMiipcror docs
not sec it himself, it is pl;iin enough to all the rest of
the world, and will, in due season, make itself manifest
to him also, that if the ideals set hefore the world in
his Keseri])t are to be achieved, il will he done hy fol-
hjwing tlie wcll-\V(»rn [)atli which leads to the federa-
tion of the Continent.

Tins is not the only eentnrv in which the idealist
has dreamed of a Continental State and soverei^i^ns
haA'c lahored for the realization of the snhlimc con-
ception of a federated Knro])(\ Tlie ideas associated
with the Amphictyonic (/onncil have hannted as will-
o'-thc-wis])s the imaininati<")n of snccessivc generations
of mankind. Under the Caesars, western, sonthern
and c(»ntral Knrope was rongh-hewn into an effectives
imperial nnity. All the greater Popes had the vision
of nnited Euro])c, and most of them, seeing that no
one else grasped the great conception, sought sedu-
lously to confer npon the chair of St. Peter the he-
gemony of the Continent.

Mr. Edwin 11. Mears in the Xcw England Magazine
recently summarized in a series of articles the sugges-
tions made by eminent thinkers for securing the peace
of the world. Here, for instance, is his account of
the great design of Henri IV. in the very last years
of the sixteenth century: —

Henri IV., acting in concert with Queen Elizabeth in her
old age, conceived the plan of what he called ilie Christian
Commonwealth, to be formed among the Powers of Europe.
His plan in brief was this, to reduce the number of European
states, much as the Congress of Vienna eventual did two
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7'///:; UNITED HTATEH OF EUROPE

hundred years afterwards, or so that all Europe should be
divided among fifteen Powers. Russia did not then count
as part of Europe; and Prussia was not then born. Of these
Powers, six were the kingdoms of England, France, Spain,
Denmark, Sweden and Lombardy. Five were to be elective
monarchies, viz.: The German Empire, the Papacy, Poland,
Hungary and Bohemia; and there were to be four repub-
lics — Switzerland, Venice, the States of Holland and Bel-
gium, and the Republic of Italy, made up somewhat as the
kingdom of Italy is now. These fifteen Powers were to
maintain but one standing army. The chief business of this
army was to keep the peace among the States, and to pre-
vent any sovereign from interfering with any other, from
enlarging his borders, or other usurpations. This army and
the navy ^,•e^e also to be ready to repel invasions of Mussul-
mans and other barbarians. For the arrangement of com-
merce, and other mutual interests, a Senate was to be ap-
pointed of four members from each of the larger, and two
from each of the smaller States, who should serve three
years, and be in constant session. It was supposed that, for
affairs local in their character, a part of these Senators
might meet separately from the others. On occasions of
universal importance, they would meet together. Smaller
congresses, for more trivial circumstances, were also pro-
vided for, . . . According to Sully, at the moment of
Henri's murder, he had secured the practical active co-
operation of twelve of the fifteen Powers, who were to unite
In this confederation.

The immediate aim of this arran^c^ement was to
hnmhle the overweeiiiii;^,' pow(>r of Austria, but the
further ])urpose wa;^ to secure peruiauent pcaeo.
One hundred years hiter, in l(IJ)o, William Penn
broug'ht out his " Essay Towards the Present and
Future Peace of Europe, by the Establishment of an
European Diet, Parliament or Estates." Penn's
fundamental proposition was, in his own words: —

THE EUROPEAN CONCERT

The sovereign princes of Europe, who represent that
society or independent state of men that was previous to the
obligations of society, should, for the same reason that
engaged men first into society, viz., love of peace and order,
agree to meet by their stated deputies- in a general diet, estates
or jyarliament, and there establish rules of justice for sov-
ereign princes to observe one to another; and thus to meet
yearly, or once in two or three years at farthest, or as they
shall see cause, and to be styled the Sovereign or Imperial Did,
Parliaynent, or State of Europe, before which sovereign assem-
bly should be brought all differences depending between
one sovereign and another that cannot be made up by
private embassies before the session begins; and that if any
of the sovereignties that constitute these Imperial States
shall refuse to submit their claims or pretensions to them,
or to abide and perform the judgment thereof, and seek their
remedy by arms or delay their compliance beyond the time
prefixed in their resolutions, all the other sovereignties,
united as one strength, shall compel the submission and
performance of the sentence, with damages to the suffering
that obliged their party and charges to the sovereignties'
submission.

It will 1)0 observed that Pcnii was not afraid of that
" l)les8od word compulsion." In this res])c'('t he dis-
tinguishes himself from most of tlic *' ])(>ae(' at any
])ri('(' " people who arc ii'cncrally cai^cr to consider
themselves his followers. But Penn was a statesman
with actual and intimate knowledp' of affjiirs. Just
as many nowadays (piote the ])recc(lents of the United
States, so Peun referred to Sii* William 'rem})le'H
account of the United Provinces of Holland '* as fur-
nishinfi' a practical illustration in narrow limits of that
constitution which he would have extended to cover
all Kurope."

,i I

Olil

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

•r

Yet another liundred years and Immanuel Kant
published in 1795 his '' Towards Eternal Peace," of
which the leading ideas were local autonomy and
world-wide federalism, or the federation of self-gov-
erned States. There is a strange periodicity about
these great dreams of universal peace. At the end
of the sixteenth century, Henri IV. 's ''Great Design";
at the end of the seventeenth, Penn's '' Essay "; at the
end of the eighteenth, Kant's " Zum ewigen Frieden,"
to be f()ll(>wed at the end of the nineteenth century
by the Tni})erial Pescript of the Emperor of Pussia.

Even the Xapoleons, the first as well as the tliird,
saw the coming of Europe afar oif, and each in his own
way labored to bring it to birth. The first, a Mars
who had clutched the thunderbolt of Jove, stormed
across the Continent, crumbling beneath his mail-clad
feet Avhole acres of feudal masonry which cumbered
the ground. The offsi)ring and the Nemesis of the
Pevolution, he Avas the greatest leveller the Continent
had ever seen. The third Napoleon, whose favorite
occupation he himself defined as devising solutions for
insoluble problems, dreamed much of the possibility
of reconstituting some kind of iederation of Europe.
If was this cloudy notion that ])rom])ted those con-
tinual })ro})()sings of conferences with wlp'cb. he used
to trouble his liaiid-(<>-iii<>iitli coulciiij^orarios. Nor

was it only in Kings' courts or in Imperial or Papal
Councils that the great idoix brooded over the minds
of men. It was the theme of the ])oet's song, of the
saint's devotions. It inspired much of the swelling

THE EUROPEAN COSVEKT

end

rhetoric of Victor ITugo. It was the burden of the
prophetic \ision of ]\razzini.

And now tliis far-off, unseen event, toward which
the wliole Continent has been moving with sh:>w but
resistless march, has come within the pale of practical
politics, and on the threshold of the twentieth century
we await this latest and greatest new birth of Time.

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CHAPTEll Y

EUROPA

I had the good fortune to be in Berlin two years
ago. A great capital is always a great inspiration.
And Berlin, with its heroic associations of past wars,
is more inspiring than most of the younger cities of
the M'orld. Bnt that wliicli impressed me most on
this visit was the new building of the Kcichstag, which
had not been comp^'^ed the last lime I was in (}er-
many. It was not the building itself — although that
is imposing, if rather squat, with noble equestrian
statues standing boldly against the sky — but the polit-
ical fact Vvhich it represented. Here under one roof,
around the s';;.: • iribime, gather in peaceful debate
the representatives of as many States as those which
now make up the anarchy of Europe. It is the fashion
nowadays to speak of language as if it were a tie closer
than all others. But tlie belief in the unity of the
Fatherland because of its common speech is hardly a
century old, iuu\ lona- after Arndt liad endjodied the
idea in verse, German fought German Axitli the uiniost
indifference to the German t(mgue. The intense in-
dividuality of the German, liis tendency to construct
a special theory of tlie universe entirely for his own

EiROP.i

i! J

use out of his own (jonsciousucss, made the Cerm;;u
races the most intractable material for empire-builuiiui;
on the Continent. They fought each other for • ic
love of (lod; they fought for the pride of place; they
were capable of fighting for a theory of irregular
verbs. They were (li^•ided, and sub-divided, and re-
divided again into kingdoms, })rincipalities, duchies,
and all manner of smaller States. Every ruler was
as touchy as a Spanish hidalgo about his precedence,
and no miser ever clutched his gold with more savage
determination to keep and to hold than every German
princelet maintained to the uttermost the princely pre-
rogative of making war and peace. Xot even the con-
stant pressure of foreign peril sufficed to overcome the
centrifugal tendency of the (icrman genius. Again
and again the wiser heads amongst them had dc* iscd
more or less elaborate plans for securing (Jeriiian
unity. After the fall of Xapoleon, the l)e t that co\dd
be done was the Bund, which was almos* as 'u-ovokiiig
in its deliberative inaction as the Euro,; I'n Concert
is to-day. But the Bund perished at the swr.rd's point,
to be succeeded bv the Xorth and South Oermin: CVm
federations, which in turn lisa])peare(l when tiie vic-
tories over Erance rendered it possible for the Prus-
sian King to be proclaimed (lerman Emperor in the
Palace at Versailles. Since then unified (Jennany
has been at peace, (iermany his beconie u unit, and
the Reichstag, although sorely distracted by the fis
siparous tendency of the German parliamentary man,
has been the parliament of ih? Cnited Empire.

1 1

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CO TJIIJ UXITED ^STATES OF ELROPE

How long- will it be, I woiulorcd, as 1 wandered
tlironuli the buildiiii!,' ol' the Kcielistai:' before iiiiiiied
Juii'ope has its Parliament House, and the Federation
of JMiro[)e finds for it.-^elf a headcjnarters and a ioeal
habitation for a permanent representative assembly?
What Germany has done, Enrope may do.

The nnion of (Germany has not resulted in the dis-
armament of (lernians, neither would the Constitution
of the United States of Europe lead to the disarma-
ment of the Continent. J>ut no (ierman now buckles
on the sword with any dread lest he may have to un-
sheathe it against a brother German. The area within
wliieh peace reigns and the law eourt is supreme is now
widened so as to include all German lands between
Jiussia and France, 'lliat is an enormous gain. If
we con hi achiev anvthinii' like it for ]MU'ot)e we might
l)e well content.

The progress of majdvind to a higher civilization
has been marked at every stage bv the continuous
wideninji,' of the area within which no sword shall be

drawn and no shot iired save by command of the cen-
tral 'Uithoritv. In pure savagery every individual is
a sovereign unit. The matelcss tiger in thf jungle
is tlie liiost })erfect tvjx' of the lirst stage of Innnan
individiudism. AVhom he will or can he slays, and
whom lie vill oi' must he spares alive. His appetite
or his caprice is liis only law. lie has power of life
and death, and the sole right of levying war or making
peace; withotit reference to any other sovereignty than
his own. From that starting-point man has gradually

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JJLROPA

progressed by irregular stages across the centuries,
until the right to kill, instead of being the universal
prerogative of every man, is practically vested in about
twenty hands — so far as white-skinned races arc con-
cerned. The first step was the substitution of the
family for the individual as the unit of sovereignty.
War might prevail ad libitum outside, but there must
be peace at home. After the family came the tribe.
After the tribe, the federation of tribes for purposes
of self-defence or of eifective aggression. Then came
the cities, with the civic unit. From time to time a
despot or conqueror, driven by sheer ambition, estab-
lished an empire, which, however imperfect it might
be, maintained peace within its boundaries. Then
nations were formed, each with their own organism
and each allowing at first a very wide latitude for pri-
vate and local war to their component parts. In our
own history, not even our insular position prevented
our forefathers, long after they had achieved some
kind of nominal unity, preserving with jealous eye
the right of private and provincial war. By slow de-
grees, however, the right to kill has been confined to
even fewer and fewer hands. The mills of God have
ground as usual very slowly, but those who took the
sw^ord perished by the sword, and the pertinacious as-
serters of the ancient inalienable right of private war
were converted from the error of their wavs by the
effective process of extermination at the hands of a
stronger power, determined that no one should w^eld
the power of the sword but itself. In Germany to-

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Tin: LMTIJD NTATKH OF FA ROPE

'!!!

day, in place of a hundred potentates, each enjoying-
the right to kill, AVilliani 11. is the sole War Lord.

And as it is in Germany so it is elsewhere. The
right to suspend the Decalogue so far as the command
'* Thou shalt not kill " is concerned is now confined in
Europe to William II., ^'icholas IL, Francis Joseph,
Humbert, Victoria, and President Faure. These
are the lords of the first degree, whose right to kill
is practically absolute. After them come the lords
of the second degree, who are allowed a certain lati-
tude of killing provided they can secure the neutrality
of one or more of the AVar Lords of the first degree.
There is a nominal right to kill enjoyed by all the
kings of all the States, But as a matter of fact it
cannot be exercised except in alliance with one or
other of the greater Powers. Greece thought that it
was possible to exercise this nominal prerogative of
independent sovereignty. Her experience is not such
as to encourage other small States to follow her
example.

But in r(}ality the persons who have the unrestricted
right to kill in Europe are even fewer than the six
absolute war lords. Europe is now practically divided
into two camps. There is the Busso-French Alliance,
entered into for the purpose of restraining France
from precipitating war, which practically gives Nich-
olas II. a veto upon the right of levying war enjoyed
by the Frencli Bepublic. On th' other hand, there
is the Triple AHiancc of Germany, Austria, and Italy,
which practically renders it impossible for Austria or

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EUROPA

Italy to go to war without the permission of William
II. Between these two Alliances there is the British
Empire. In Europe, therefore, the right of levying
war is vested almost solely in the Queen, her grandson,
and her granddaughter's husband. Nicholas II., Wil-
liam II., and Victoria — these three are the Trium-
virate of Europe. And as the late Tsar said to me at
Gatschina, " If these three — Russia, (iermany, and
England — hold together, there will he no war." So
far, therefore, we have come in our pilgrimage to the
United States of Europe, that the power of the sword,
which last century was a practical reality in the hands
of a hundred potentates, is now practically limited to
three persons, without whose permission no gun may
bo fired in M'rath in the whole Continent.

No reproach is more frequently brought against me
than that of inconsistencv. It is the most familiar
of the jibes which are flung at me by both friends and
foes alike when they differ from me, that they never
know what I am going to be at next, and that I am
everything by turns and nothing long. These re-
l^roaches and sarcasms I have borne with the 'equanim-
ity of one whose withers are unwrung, for I happen to
be in the fortunate position of a man whose opinions
have been on record from dav to dav and from month
to month for the last twentv-five vears. To all such
accusations there is only one answer: Litera scripla
manet. It is quite true that I have infinitely varied
the method by which T have sought to attain the ulti-
mate ideal that at the very beginning of my journal-

-*...»«

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TIJE US IT ED STATES OF EUROPE

istic career I set myself to realize. I have supported
and opposed in turn almost every leading statesman,
and I have from time to time thrown whatever influ-
ence I had, now on the side of Imperialism, and then
on the side of peace, and I have done all this, and
hope to go on doing it till the end of my time. But
to base the charge of inconsistency on this continual
change of tactics is as absurd as it would be to accuse
a mariner of not steering for his port because from
day to day and from hour to hour he tacks from side
to side in order the more expeditiously to reach his
distant port.

This question of the United States of Europe has
been one of the ideals towards which I have constantly,
in fair weather and in foul, directed my course.
Nineteen years ago, in the critical election of 1880,
it was my lot to draw up an electoral catechism which
was more widely used as an electoral weapon by the
party which issued triumphant from the polls than
any other broadsheet in the campaign. In this cate-
chism I formulated my conception of the English for-
eign policy in terms which, after the lapse of nineteen
years, I do not find necessary to vary by a single
svllable : —

Question: "What is England's mission abroad?"
Answer: " To maintain the European Concert — that
germ of the United States of Europe — against isolated ac-
tion; to establish a Roman peace among the dark-skinned
races of Asia, Polynesia, and Africa; to unite all branches
of the English-speaking race in an Anglo-Saxon Bund, and
to spread Liberty, Civilization and Christianity throughout

EUROPA

the world."—" The Elector's Catechism."
of 1880.

General Election

]VIy last visit to Russia and the publication of this
book are the latest efforts that 1 have made to realize
the ideal which was clearly set out in the above sen-
tence written in 1880. The conception in those days
was confined to few, but nowadays the parties led by
Lord Koseberv and Lord Salisburv would vie with
each other in asserting their readiness to recognize the
European Concert as the germ of the United States
of Europe, and to develop the concerted action of six
Powers in relation to the question of the East into a
Eederated Union of all the European States. It may
perhaps be well worth while to form some idea of this
new organic entity which it is the first object of our
foreign policy to create. Are we repeating the crime
of Frankenstein, or are we fashioning, like Pygmalion,
a beautiful creature into which at the appointed time
the gods will breathe the breath of life? In other
words, what is this Europe whose United States we are
seeking to federate?

Europe is a continent. It is hardly as yet .v realized
personality. There was a fair Europa in the myth-
ology of the ancients, whom Jove loved, and whose
story once suj:^j;'»'^ted to Tenniel the idea that John
Bull might aspire successfully to play the part of the
Father of gods and men. But outside mythology
there is little personification of Europe. The sym-
bolical group at the base of the Albert ]Memorial,
representing Europe as one of the four continents, is

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almost the only effort with which we are familiar in
England.

But such personification of a Federation of States
is possible enough. The United States of America
form a federation which has its recognized symbolical
embodiment in Columbia and its humorous personifi-
cation in Uncle Sam. The British Empire is a con-
glomerate far more heterogeneous and wide-scattered
than the United States of Europe, but we liave our
s^'^mbol in the heroic figure of Jkitannia and our famil-
iar personification in John Bull. The CJerman Em-
pire, to take another illustration, is also a conglomerate
of kingdoms and duchies and cities; but the first great
effort of German art to express in permanent form the
triumph of German arms in the attainment of German
unity was the erection of the colossal statue of Ger-
niania upon the wooded heights of the Niederwald,
where she still keeps watch and ward over the German
Rhine. But in all these cases it must be admitted
there is a certain unity of national type wliich facili-
tates the task of personifying the federal combination.

The caricaturist, who often precedes the more seri-
ous artist in the selection and illustration of themes
of national and international importance, has not been
slow to seize the opening offered by the first crude,
tentative efforts towards international action in Crete
by portraying the European soldier as a fantastic con-
glomerate, a thing of shreds and patches, clothed in
fragments of all uniforms. TsTot so will the artist pro-
ceed who endeavors to present before the world the

ELROPA

heroic proportions of her who, although the least
among the Continents, is now, as she has been for two
thousand years, greatest amongst them all. The Star
of Empire which shone in the remote past over the
valley of the Nile and the plains watered by the
Euphrates has since the great day of Salamis been
faithful to Europe. It may be that the new Conti-
nent of the West may yet challenge successfully the
primacy of the older world. But except in alliance
with Britain, no such challenge can be dreamed of for
a century, and Britain is European as well as Ameri-
can, Asiatic as well as African. Eor as the Tsar is
Emperor of All the Kussias, so Her Majesty is Em-
press on All the (Continents and of All the Seas.

There is a charming little poem by Russell Lowell
entitled " The Beggar." The poet describes himself
as a beggar wandering through the world, asking from
all things that he meets something of their distinguish-
ing characteristics. From the old oak he craves its
steadfastness, from the granite gray its stern unyield-
ing might, from the sweetly mournful jiine he asks its
pensiveness serene, from the violet its modesty, and
from the cheerful brook its sparkling light content.

The idea is a j)retty conceit, but it may help us to
consider the distinctive qualities which the world may
crave not in vain from the various component parts
of this new composite entity, the United States of
Europe.

It is indeed good to regard our sister nations with
grateful heart, to contemplate the gifts which they

THE UNITED ISTATES OF ELIiOl'E

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bring with them to the fraternal banquet of the peo-
ples, and to realize, if only in imagination, what we
should lose if any of the European States were to
drop out of the world.

First among the States in area and in power stands
Russia, the sword ol Europe against the Infidel, for
centuries the only hope and shelter of the (christian
East. Upon the threshold of the Kussian home burst
the full horrors of Asiatic conquest. Time was when
every wandering Tartar from the steppes rode as mas-
ter and owner over prostrate ^luscovy. But the storm
of nomad savagery spent itself upon the Russian land,
which, though submerged for a time, nevertheless
saved Europe.

After a time the Russians threw off the yoke of the
oppressor and entered upon their secular mission as
liberators and champions of the Christian East. To
their self-sacrificing valor the world owes the freedom
of Roumania, the emancipation of Servia, the inde-
pendence of (ireece, and the liberation of Bulgaria.
!N^ot a freeman breathes to-day between the Pruth and
the Adriatic but owes his liberty to Russia. Liberty
in these Eastern lands was baptized in Russian blood
freely spent in the Holy War against the Moslem op-
pressor. Mor is it only liberty in Eastern lands Avhicli
owes a heavy debt to Russian sacrifices. As Russia in
the Middle Ages received upon her ample breast the
shock of the Tartar spears, and made for Europe a
rampart with her bleeding form against the Asiatic
horde, so Russia at the dawn of this century arrested

EUROPA

tliG devastating wave of Napoleonic conquest. The
flames of her burning capital were as the star of the
dawn to the liberties of Europe. Moscow delivered
the death-blow to which Leipsic and Waterloo were
but the coup de grace. In later years Russia has done
yeoman's service to the cause of humanity by bri-
dling tlie savages of the Asiatic steppes and destroying
slavery in the heart of Asia. She is now bridging the
Continent with a road of steel, and from Archangel
to Odessa, from Warsaw to Saghalien is maintaining
with somewhat heavy h^nd the Roman peace. Russia
has preserved in the midst of her dense forests and
illimitable steppes the principle of cooperative hus-
bandry, of a commune based on brotherly love, and
has realized the dream of village republics locally
autonomous under the aegis of the Tsar. In the face
of Asia, fanatically Moslem, and Europe, fanatically
Papal, Russia has maintained alike against Turkish
scimitar and Polish lance her steadfast allegiance to
the Christian Creed. Her travellers penetrate the
remotest fastnesses of Asia ; her men of science ar3 in
the foremost rank of modern discovery; the stubborn
valor of her soldiers has taught the world new lessons
as to the might of self-sacrificing obedience; her poor-
est peasant preserves unimpaired the splendid loyalty
and devotion of the Middle Ages; her writers of
genius, like TurgenieflP, delight the civilized world
with their romances; her painters. Gay and Verest-
chagin, display a genius as great on canvas as her

Rubinstein and Paderewski in music; while in all the
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world to-day no voice sounds out over sea and land
with such prophetic note as that of Count Tolstoi.
There is in Russia, as in every other land, much that
even the most patriotic Russians would wish absent;
but who is there who can deny that, take her all in
all, the disappearance of Russia as she is from the
European galaxy would leave us poor indeed?

From the largest to the smallest, from the Empire
of the plain to the Republic of the Alps, is but a step.
Both are European. AVho is there among free men
whose pulse does not beat faster at the thought of all
that Switzers have dared and Switzers have done?
Jlere in the heart of surrounding despotism these
hardy peasants and mountaineers tended the undying
flame of Liberty, and century after century furnished
an envious world with the spectacle of a frugal Re-
public, whose more than Roman virtue remained proof
against the blandishments of royal ambition or the
menaces of imperial power. AVilliam Tell may be a
myth, but the legend that is associated with his name
is more of a living reality than all the deeds of all
the Hapsburgs duly certified by the official Dry-as-
dusts. And Arnold von Winkelried, he at least was
real both in history and in song, and for all time the
story of his dying cry, "Make way for Liberty! " as
he gathered the Austrian spears into his breast, will
lift the soul of man above the level of selfish common-
place and inspire even the least imaginative of mortals
with some gleam of the vision — the beatific vision — of
the heroism of sacrifice. To-day, when the day of

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FOUR MOXAHCIIS OF EUROPE

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EUROPA

storm and stress has c;ivcii place to more tranquil times,
Switzerland has become at once the political and social
laboratory of the world and the playgronnd and health
resort of Enrope. Here at the base of her snowclad
hills Enrope cherishes as the elite of the Continent
the intelligent and energetic democracy which defends
its frontier without the aid of a standing army; and
while lacking alike rivers, seaport, coal, and iron, has
nevertheless proved itself able to hold its own in the
competition of the world.

"Italia, oh! Italia, thou who hast the fatal gift of
beauty," hast the not less priceless gift of associations
of history and romance, before which those of all other
nations but Greece simply disappear. The nation
which boasts as its capital the city of the Caesars can
never yield to any other the primacy of fame. Europe
once centred in the Eternal City. The unity of the
Continent, as far as the Rhine and the Danube, was
for centuries a realized fact, when the sceptre had not
departed from Rome nor the lawgiver from the banks
of the Tiber. Nor is the Italian claim to primacy
solely traditional. For whatever may be the political
power of the Quirinal as a world power, Italy makes
herself felt through the Vatican. At this moment,
in Chicago, public life is more or less .demoralized be-
cause an Italian old man in Rome made a mistake in
the selection of the Irishman who rules the great Cath-
olic city of the West as the Pope's archbishop. And
as it is in Chicago, so it is to a greater or lesser extent
in every vast centre of population throughout the

THE V SITED HTATEH OF El ROPE

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world. But tho Papacy, although more than Euro-
pean, is nevertheless a constant factor which must be
reckoned with in discussing the evolution of Europe.
The instinct of Leo is entirely in favor of peace and
unity, but a firebrand in Peter's chair could easily per-
petuate for another generation the armed anarchy of
the Continent. Apart alike from politics and religion,
Italy has always been a potent influence in promoting
the growth of a wider than national culture, develop-
ing European rather tlian provincial interest. For
centuries before Cook arose and a trip to the Continent
became a thing of course, Italy alone possessed in her
treasures of art sufficient attraction to induce men of
every nation to brave the discomforts and perils of a
Continental journey. From being the Mistress, Italy
became the Loadstone of the Continent, and that dis-
tinction she has still preserved. To those treasure-
cities of mediaeval art which shine like stars in the
firmament, reverent pilgrims every year bend their
way as to most sacred shrines. But in every age. Italy,
whether poor, distracted, and overrun by barbarian
conquerors, or queening it as mistress over a Conti-
nent, has ever possessed a strange and magic charm.
Dante was hers, and Raphael, Michael Angelo, and
Savonarola — four names, the power and the glory of
which are felt even where they are not understood, in
the remote backwoods of America, or in the depths
of the Australian bush. In modern times the revolu-
tionary energy of the mid-century was cradled in Italy.
Garibaldi restored to politics of the present day some-

EVIiOPA

what of the fascination which charms in the pages of
Ariosto, while ^lazzini revived in our hitter dav the
primitive type of prophet-seer.

Xor must we forget, in paying our homage to Italy
as Queen of the Arts and custodian of the great sites
from Avliich Pope and Caesar in former times ^wayed
the sceptre, spiritual and secular, over mankind, that
Italy of the present day is peopling the Xew World
more rapidly than any of her sister nations. While
emigration from almost every other country has fallen
off in the last decade of the century, that from Italy
has increased until it amounts to well nigh half of the
European overflow. If this be kept up, we may see
a new Italy in South America which may be for the
Italian language and the Italian race what New
England has been for Britain in the northern hemi-
sphere.

From Italy, which on the extreme south approaches
almost to the torrid heat of Africa, I would turn to
another land at the opposite extremity of the Conti-
nent, whose northern frontier lies within the Arctic
Circle. Sweden and Norway, at present far removed
from the troubled vortex of European politics, cannot
vie with Italy in art or with Russia in political power,
but none the less the sister States represent much
which Europe coidd ill spare. We of the north land,
at least, and all the teeming progeny that have sprung
from our loins, can never forget the Scandinavian
home from whence the sea kings came; and although
our culture is largely Hebraic on one side and IlelleDic

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on the other, the warp and woof upon which the He-
brew and the Greek have embroidered their ideas is
essentially Norse. Nor can wo of the Reformed faith,
at least, ever forget the heroic stand made on behalf
of the Protestant religion by Gustavus Adolphus and
the brave men whom he led to victory on so many a
hard-fonght field. Charles XII., too, that meteor of
conquest and of war, supplies one of those heroic and
chivalrous figures of the European drama whose ro-
mantic career still inspires those who live under widely
different circumstances and under remoter skies.
Norway is tlie only country in Europe which vies with
Switzerland in enabling the dwellers in our great
plains and crowded cities easy access to the sublimest
mountain scenery. In the social and political realm,
we owe to Gothenburg, a Swedish town, '.he most help-
ful of all the experiments that have been tried for the
solution of the liquor traffic; while in the world of
books there are to-day no three names more constantly
on the lips of the librarians of the world than the three
great Scandinavians whose fame is the common herit-
age of our race; Bjornson in fiction, Ibsen in the
drama, and Nansen in Arctic exploration.

Again turning southward, we find in Spain another
of the nations which, in the flush of its Imperial prime,
endeavored to realize the dream of United Europe.
Spain at one time seemed destined by Providence to
the over-lordship of the Old World and the New.
Between Spain and Portugal the Pope divided the
whole world which was discovered bv the Genoese

EUROPA

sailor who was financed by Isabella of Spain. It is
but three hundred years ago since Spain loomed as
large before the eyes of Europe as Germany plus Eng-
land would do to-day. Alike on land and sea there was
none to challenge her supremacy. To-day Spain is
the mere shadow of her former self, but even if the
shadow itself vanished from the earth, the memory of
the great days of Spanish chivalry when, like Russia
on the east, she stood warden of Europe on the south,
can never be forgotten. The chivalrous Moors, who
have left the imperishable monuments of their pres-
ence in the fairy-like ruins of the Alhambra, were
very different from the Tartar horde which nearly
extinguished Russia; but the secular struggle waged
against them equally called out the heroic qualities of
the race. As the Moor was the anvil on which the
Spanish sword was beaten until it became a veritable
Toledo blade, so in turn Spain became the anvil on
which our malleable English metal was beaten into
the broadsword and trident by which we rule the sea
to-day. Of all her possessions abroad, Spain to-day
retains but a few straggling islets in the Eastern seas.
But Spanish pride is as great to-day in the hour of
national decline as when Spain was at the zenith of
imperial prosperity. To European literature she has
contributed two great names — Cervantes and Calde-
ron — one of whom is to-day to the majority of us but
a name and nothing more ; while the other, Cervantes,
has contributed to the literature of the world one of
the dozen books which are read everywhere by every-

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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

body in every language and in every land. To Europe
of to-day Spain contributes little but an imposing tra-
dition and somewhat of the stately dignity of the
hidalgo, which the modern world, in the rusli and
tumble of these democratic days, is in danger of for-
getting. Iler authors are read but little l)eyond the
Pyrenees, her statesmen exercise little weight in Euro-
pean affairs, but in Castelar she contributed to the Par-
liament of Europe the most eloquent orator of the
Continent.

How incredible it would have seemed in the six-
teenth century had any one predicted that in the cen-
turies to come Spain v.'ould be a Power of the third
magnitude, while the Austrian Empire, shorn of all
influence in Germany, would nevertheless rank among
the half-dozen great Powers of Europe! I5ut the
incredible thing has come to pass, and Austria-Hun-
gary, torn by domestic dissensions and threatened by
powerful foes, continues to exhibit a marvellous vital-
ity and indestructible youth. The land of the Danube
with a dual throne, broad based ui)on a dozen races
speaking as mauy languages — the Empire-kingdom is
the political miracle of the nineteentli century. Mr.
(Gladstone once scornfully asked, " On what spot of
the map of the world could we place our finger and
say, here Austria has done good? " But the answer
is obvious. Outside her frontiers she may have done
as little good as England has done in eastern Europe,
but within the limits of the Empire-kingdom Austria
has rendered invaluable service to the cause of peace

Minis

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E. Ii}(f)f7\ Bciiiu
COUNT OOLUCIIOWSKI

Minister of Foreign Affnirp, Austria-llunmirv

C. rhtzntr, Vknua
COUNT TIIUN

AiistiiMii Premier

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IIKUll VON KAl-I.AV
Minister of Finance, Aiistriu-IInnKary.

Krz'uKtiiik, Vv'ima
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IIINOAUY

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and civilization of the semi-savage races whom she has
tamed and kept in line. To act as schoolmaster, not
on despotic but on constitutional principles, to Ruth-
enians and Slovaks, Poles and Czechs; to organize a
State which is indispensable for European stability,
out of such discordant elements as those which com-
pose the conglomerate of Austria-Hungary, these are
achievements indeed for which Europe is not ungrate-
ful. The dual kingdom not only bears testimony to
the possibility of creating an organic entity out of the
most heterogeneous conglomerate of nationalities, it
further affords the most signal illustration in contem-
porary history of the fact that States, like individuals,
can find salvation by conversion when they truly re-
pent and bring forth fruits meet for repentance.
Fifty years ago Austria was a by^vord to every Liberal.
To-day there is hardly any State in Central Europe
which has worked out so many problems of decentrali-
zation on constitutional lines as the Empire of the
Hapsburgs.

Turning from the composite dual kingdom, we
come to a State which in all things is the antithesis of
Austria-Hungary. Austria-Himgary, although ex-
tremely diverse in its nationalities, is nevertheless,
territorially, within a ring fence. The Danish nation,
on the other hand, compact, homogeneous to an extent
almost without parallel in Europe, a unity both in race,
religion, and in lanauage, is nevertheless scattered
over a peninsula and half-a-dozen islands. In the
State system of Europe, Denmark, with its handful

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of population, can throw no sword of Brennus into the
scale which decides the destinies of nations; but the
nation marches in the van of European progress. Our
fanners have learnt by sore experience the energy and
initiative which have enabled the Danish peasant to
distance all competitors in the markets of Europe.
The nation, simple, honest, hardy, and industrious,
free from the vices of caste, is one of the most con-
spicuous examples extant of monarchical democracy.
The days have long gone by since Denmark held tho
keys of the Sound and levied tax and toll on the ship-
ping of the world as it passed through the Baltic to
the North Sea. But it is worth while remembering
that the freeing of the Sound was an international act,
which, as far back as 1857, foreshadowed the collec-
tive action of Europe. The royal House of Den-
mark, which has given a King to Greece, an Empress
to Russia, and a future Queen to the British Empire,
may fairly claim to be one of the nerve-centres of the
Continent. I^or can it be forgotten that in Thor-
waldsen, Denmark has the supreme distinction of pro-
ducing a sculptor whose work recalls the sculpture of
ancient Greece. But there are hundreds of millions
who have no opportunity of visiting Copenhagen, and
to whom the genius of Thorwaldsen is but a thing they
have heard but do not understand. The one name
which is above every name among the sons of Den-
mark, which is enshrined Avithin the heart of every
child in every land, is that of Hans Christian Ander-
Len, whose fairy tales are the classics of every nursery.

EUROPA

and whose " Ugly Duckling " is one of the Birds of
I'aradise of the world.

We may not agree with Victor lingo in describing
Paris as the Capital of Civilization, the City of Light,
but Europe is unthinkable without France. The na-
tion which for centuries was the eldest son of the
Church, and which in 1781) became the standard-
bearer of the Revolution, has ever played the fore-
most role in European history. If in the last thirty
years she has fallen from her pride of place, and no
longer lords it in the Council Chamber, she is none
the less an invaluable element in the comity of nations.
The French novel has made the tour of the world, the
French stage is the despair of all its rivals, and in
painting and sculpture the French artists reign su-
preme. There is a charm about the French character,
a lucidity about French writing, a grace about France
generally, to which other nations aspire in vain.
France is the interpreter to the continent of ideas con-
ceived in Germany or worked out in practical fashion
in English-speaking lands. In all the arts and graces
of life, especially in everything that tends to make the
most of the body, whether in the food of it, the cloth-
ing of it, or in the ministering to the imiversal in-
stincts of the creature man, they leave the rest of the
world helplessly behind. We English — a slow-witted
race, who did not even know how to build a decent
man-of-w^ar until we captured one from the French
and used it as a model in our dockyards — can never
adequately acknowledge the debt which we owe to our

Tin: UMTED i^TATEl^ OF ELROPE

neighbors.

They preceded us in conquest round the
world; they were the pioneers of empire both in Asia
and America. . the supreme distinction of Franco

in the commonwealth of nations to-day is seldom or
never appreciated at its full significance. France is
the one nation in the world which, fearlessly confront-
ing with remorseless logic the root problems of the
world, has decided apparently with irrevocable deter-
mination that there are not more than thirty-nine mil-
lions of Frenchmen needed as a necessary ingredient
in the population of this planet. Other nations may
increase and multiply and replenish the earth, but
Franco has made up her mind that, having reached
her appointed maximum, therewith she will be con-
tent. Xo temptation, not even the continual multi-
plication of the surplus millions of German fighting-
men on her eastern frontier, nor the envy occasioned
by the immense expansion of the English race over
the sea, is able to tempt her to forsake her appointed
course. AVhat is more remarkable is that this deter-
mination can only be executed by asserting the right
of will and reason to control in a realm that the
Church, to which all French women belong, declares
must be left absolutelv to the chance of instinct on
pain of everlasting damnation. France may or may
not have chosen the better part; but the self-denying
ordinance by which she deliberately excludes herself
from competition with the multiplying races of the
world has an aspect capable of being represented in
the noblest liaht.

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EL HOP A

France! heroic France! France of St. Louis and
of Jeanne d'Arc, is also France of Voltaire and of
Diana of Poictiers, of ^loliere and Dumas, of Louis
Pasteur and Sarah Bernhardt! AVhat other nation
has produced so many of the highest realized ideals of
human capacity on so many different lines? Even
now, when the nation that built Xotre Dame and
Chartres Cathedral has taken to riveting together the
girders which make the Eiffel Tower, France is still
France, the glory and the despair of the human race.

Space fails me to do more than cast a rapid glance
at the smaller States, each of which nevertheless con-
tributes elements of vital worth to the great European
whole. ]Much indeed might be said of Holland, that
land won by spadefuls from the sea, protected by dykes
and drained by windmills, in order to provide a level
spot of verdure on which the most phlegmatic and in-
dustrious of mortal men could rear a sober common-
wealth under a regal shade, and which, before it be-
came a kingdom, had bidden high for the Empire of
the Indies. Sea-powTr, now the sceptre of our sove-
reignty, was grasped by the Dutch before it was seized
l)y the English. It was only in the last two hundred
years that the ISTetherlands fell behind us in the race
for empire.

Belgium, once the cock-pit of Europe, is now the
most crowded hive of human industry. In no State
are more men reared per acre, nowhere does patient
husbandry win larger crops from indifferent soil;
while in forge and factory and in mine the Belgian

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workmen challenge comparison with the world. Bel-
gian competition is pressing ns hard in Russia, in Per-
sia, and in many lands where Belgian goods were re-
cently unknown.

At the other end of Europe there is Greece — a
name which, if nothing more than a name, is in itself
an inspiration. The modern (Jireek, only too faithful
an inheritor of many of l;he failings of his famous
ancestors, has at least succeeded to the heritage of
Olympus. No matter what may be his political feel-
ings or his misfortune in war, the Greek is still the
Greek, and behind the rabble rout of office-seekers
which renders government impossible at Athens there
still looms the majestic shades of tiiose " lost gods and
godlike men " which have kindled the imagination of
our race since the days when Homer sang the tale of
Troy divine. As the Acropolis is the crown of Athens,
so Hellas was the crown of the world, and that crown
neither Turk, barbarian, nor the place-hunting poli-
tician of modern Greece can ever take away. The
myths, the traditions, and the history of Hellas form
the brightest diamonds in the tiara of Europe.

:' s.

Earth proudly wears the Parthenon
As the best gem upon her zone.

There remain to be noticed but two of all the band
of nations whose States will form the European Union
— England and Germany. These two Empires, which
are at present sundered by a certain jarring dissonance
that is all the more keenly felt because their tempera-

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EUROPA

ments and ambitions arc so much alike, are the Powers
naturally marked out for promoting the complete real-
ization of the ideal of the United States of Kurope.
Some months ago I took the liberty of describing the
Gennan Emperor as the Lord Chief Justice of Europe.
It is a role which he alone is competent to fill No
other potentate on the Continent has either the en-
ergy, the ambition, or the idealism capable of playing
so great a role, (iermany, which, after the travail
of ages, has achieved her own unity, is of all the
Powers the best fitted to undertake the leadership in
the great work of completing the federation of Europe.
Germany, also, from her central situation, is better
placed than any other Power for undertaking the task.
The traditions also of the Holy Roman Empire still
linger around the Eagles of Germany, and the Empire
is already the nucleus of a combination which places
the forces of Central Europe, from Kiel to Brindisi,
at the disposal of the Alliance. The Kaiser quite re-
cently informed us that it is not his fault that more
cordial relations have not been established between
the Triple Alliance and France. As this is written he
is about to visit St. Petersburg, when he will undoubt-
edly endeavor to draw closer the ties which unite Ger-
many to Russia. Should he succeed in his endeavors,
the attainment of a practical federation of Europe
without England would lie within his reach.

But if Europe without France would be unthink-
able, and if Europe without Germany would be
Europe without the reflective brain and the mailed

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hand, what could we think of Europe without Eng-
land? It does not become me as an Englishman to
say much in praise of my own people. But this I may
say, that Europe without England would be Europe
without the one Power the expansive force of whose
colonizing and maritime genius has converted Asia
and Africa into European vassals and has secured the
American and Australian continents as receptacles for
the overflow of Europe's population. And this also
may bo added, that Europe without England would
be Euroj)e without the one Power whose sovereignty
of the seas is nowhere exerted for the purpose of secur-
ing privilege or favor for English flag or English trade,
^or must it be forgotten tliat Europe without Eng-
land would be Europe without the one country which
for centuries has been the inviolable asylum alike of
fugitive kings and of proscribed revolutionists, the
sea-girt citadel of civil and religious liberty, whose
Parliamentary institutions have been imitated more
or less closely by almost every civilized land. Europe
without England would be Europe without her wings,
a Europe without the sacred shrine where in every age
the genius of ITuman Liberty has guarded the undying
flame of Ereedom.

The Eederation of Europe at the present moment is
like an embryo in the later stages of gestation. It is
not yet ready to be born. P)Ut it has quickened with
conscious life, and already the Continent feels the ap-
proaching (ravail.

It has been a slow process. The great births of

E CROP A

ith

Time need great preparations. Under the founda-
tions of the Cathedral of St. Isaac at St. Petersburg
a whole forest of timber was sunk in piles before a
basis strong enough for the mighty dome could be
secured. The Federation of Europe is a temple far
vaster tliaii any pile of masonry put together by the
hands of man. In the morass of tlie past its founda-
tions have been reared, not upon the spoils of the for-
est, but upon generation after generation of living men
who have gone down into the void from red battlefield
and ])est-smitten camp and leaguered city in order tliat
upon their bones the Destinies might lay the first
courses of the new State. Ciirlyle's famous illustra-
tion of the I^ussian regiment at tlie siege of Zeidnitz,
which was deliberatelv marclied into the fosse in order
that those who followed after might march to victory
over a pavement of Innnan heads, represents only too
faithfully the material on which these great world
fabrics are reared.

Xor is it only the individuals who have perished by
the million, in blind struggling towards they knew not
what, which have su]iplied tlic substratum upon which
the United States of Euroj)!' were slowly to be built.
Political systems, laboriously constructed by tlie wis-
dom of statesmen and minutelv elaborated to meet the
ever-varying exigencies of tlieir <hiy, royal dynasties
and great empires have- all eqiuilly ])een flung into the
abyss like rubble, after having served their turn to
make foundation material for that wliich is to come.
In pre])ariiig great political events Xature works with
6

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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

the same almost inconceivable patience and inexhautjt-
ible profusion that may be witnessed in the formation
of the crust of the earth or in the evolution of a highly
organized species. For, as Ibsen has said, Nature is
not economical. And in the preparation of the foun-
dation of Europe she has hurled into the deep trench
so much of the finished workmanship of preceding
ages as to provoke a comparison with the work of the
barbarians, wdio made hearthstones of the statues chis-
elled by the pupils of Praxiteles, and who utilized the
matchless sculpture of the temples of the gods in the
construction of their styes.

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PART II

ENGLAJS'D IN 1898

CHAPTER I

THE FASHODA FEVER

When I returned to England from my visit to the
Continent, I was assured by a member of the Admin-
istration that the coantry had just passed through an
outburst of "drunken Imperialism." The phrase,
coming from such a conservative quarter, was very
significant. Things must have been pretty bad before
such a man in such a position could have expressed
himself in such a fashion to a political opponent. And
they seem to have been pretty bad, judging from the
impression which the English newspapers produced
upon those who read them abroad. To judge from
the papers, and from the telegrams and letters in for-
eign newspapers which professed to give information
as to how things were going in England, they could
hardly have been worse in the great orgie of Jingoism,
when Lord Beaconsfield was supposed to have brought
back " Peace with honor " from Berlin.

I left England on September 15th, when the news

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jyyjy united utateh of el rope

had arrived of the presence of Marchand at Fashoda —
news which was generally known, although not offi-
cially conlirnied. I came back immediately after the
French Government had decided to recall him. I was
therefore absent from England during the whole of the
Fashoda fever, and my impressions of what took place
during that somewhat excited period are necessarily
the impressions of an onlooker from the outside. I
saw England from the various foreign capitals v/ith
such lenses as were supplied by the telegrams in the
foreign newspapers, and by the more or less belated
Englisli new8i:)apers which followed me from place to
place. Hence, whatever I say upon the subject must
be taken, not as the judgment of one on the spot, who
is on the inside track of things, but as a faithful ex-
pression of how things looked to foreigners.

The very day on which I left London I was assured
by a prominent statesman, not in the Government,
that we ought to be preparing for instant war with
France. France had done " the unfriendly act,"
which, in diplomatic parlance, was equivalent to stat-
ing that she had picked up the gauntlet flung down
at her feet by Sir Edward (Jrcy, speaking on behalf
of the Rosebery Cabinet. Therefoie there was noth-
ing for it but to sound the alarum and prepare for
instant excursions, invasions and war by land and by
sea all over the world. Lord Salisbury was staying at
Contrexevillc, displaying, in the opinion of his im-
patient censors, a criminal indifference to the peril of
the Commonwealth. The night before I left Eng-

\i\.

.\(iilur, I'm is Na(hir, Pnria

M. DIITY THE T.ATE IMJESTDKNT FAlltK

Wall nj, I'liri'i
M. IIANOTAIX

.\'(iif>i/ . Piirix

M. 1)I;L(. ASJ^E

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THE FAHUODA FEVER

land I talked with one of the persons who may be re-
garded as perhaps the most directly responsible for the
efficiency of our first liae of defence. I asked liinn if
he was preparing for instant war. ILe innocently
asked, " With whomT' and on my replying, " France,"
he blandly answered, "Why?" When I said,
" Marchand," he shrugged his shoulders. '' Non-
sense," he said, " Alarchand is in the air; he will go
away when he is told to. It is not serious; it might
have been if the Khalifa had not been smashed, but
as he is smashed, and Marchand lies in the hollow of
our hand, it is nonsense to talk of war." Such were
the opinions of an insider and an outsider — who
would be recognized, if I were at liberty to give their
names, as about the best authorities to be found in the
country.

With such opposing views of best authorities in my
wallet, I crossed the Channel, to find the moment I
put foot in Belgium, that the Fashoda question had
temporarily obscured that of the Peace Rescript. The
brave Belgians were all agog to know whether or not
England and France were going to war. Apart from
the interest which they naturally felt in such a con-
tingency, arising from the fact that a conflict between
England and France would probably extend to the
Rhine, when they would have to stand to arms in order
to prevent the violation of their neutrality by the
contending French and Germans, there was a more
personal reason why the Belgians were interested in
Fashoda. They had been roundly accused in the

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English press of having connived at " the unfriendly
act " of the French.

The case against the Congo State, as briefly stated
by an English statesman, was that Captain Marchand
had been allowed to invade and occupy Fashoda from
the territory of the Congo Free State, although the
Congo Government had formally recognized, together
with Germany and Italy, that Fashoda was within the
British sphere of influence, and that the Pritish Gov-
ernment had publicly declared in the House of Com-
mons that it would regard such an occupation as an
" unfriendly act."

To this the Belgians replied hotly, and very much
to the point — firstly, that declarations made in the
House of Commons as to the way in which one Power
will regard the possible action of another Power do
not amount to the establishment of a state of war be-
tween these two Powers; and, secondly, that as long
as no state of war exists, the Congo State is compelled
by its constitution and the conditions imposed by the
Powers to place no obstacle in the way of free transit
through its territory. Farther, they maintained that
they had no knowledge of any intention of Captain
Marchand to commit any unfriendly act by attempting
to exercise any authority in any place within the Brit-
ish sphere of influence, and it was therefore absolutely
impossible for them to have stopped him.

To this the objectors replied that the Congo Free
State must have had a very shrewd notion of what
Captain Marchand was up to, and that they ought to

MAJOR MARCIIAXD

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TUE FAISIIODA FEVER

have given our Government a friendly hint as to what
was going on. To this the Belgians answered tri-
umphantly, " And how do you know that we did not? "
That is a question which our Foreign Office alone can
answer — the Foreign Office and the Queen.

For everywhere and always when you begin to probe
below the surface in foreign affairs, you come upon
the all-pervasive, subtle, and beneficent influence of
the Queen. The King of the Belgians, who is in fact,
if not in name, autocrat of the Congo, may or may
not comnumicate the secrets of that Empire to the
British ^linister at Brussels. But it is an open secret
that there are \erj few affairs of state upon which it
is not his invariable rule to avail himself of the privi-
lege accorded him by the tradition of his family of
taking counsel with her Majesty. Every week, it is
said, whenever the King of the Belgians is at home,
he follows the example of his father by writing to the
Queen. The first Leopold w^as the political mentor of
the girl Queen. The second Leopold, having one of
the shrewdest political heads in Europe, has always
appreciated the advantage of profiting by the counsels
of the aged lady who is the Nestor of the Sovereigns
of Europe. It is probable, then, they say in Brussels,
that if the King knew, the Queen knew; and if the
Queen knew, we may depend upon it that the Sirdar
was not taken unawares when the news came about
the white men at Fashoda.

The King, who had just arrived from a yachting
expedition to the Azores, in the course of which he

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met with a slight accident which coiiipelled him to
keep his room on his arrival at Ostend, preserved a
diplomatic attitude of nescience. In reply to my in-
quiry, I learnt that " His Majesty is totally ignorant
of what has happened at Fashoda, and even whether
anything has happened at Fashoda at all." The calm
nonchalance with which the English assumed as a mat-
ter of course that if Marchand was at Fashoda he
woui ^. have '^ to git," was a subject of amazement not
unmixed with alarm.

" But it is war you will be making! " they said.
" AVar! " we replied. " What nonsense! You don't
call it war when a picnic party caught trespassing is
courteously assisted to find its way home." " Oh,
you English! Was there ever such a people! " was
the exclamation, and there the matter stopped.

The French point of view, as stated to me repeat-
edly, was that the Southern Soudan was a kind of Tom
Tiddler's ground, which England had abandoned to
anarchy. So long as anarchy reigned on the Southern
Nile, no declaruuon made by under-secretaries could
deprive France of the right which she possessed as a
civilized Power of restoring law and order when it
was within the range of her armed hand so to do. The
French repudiated as utterly untenable the theory
that the sovereign right of any Power to exert its influ-
ence on behalf of civilization could be arbitrarily cur-
tailed by the ipse dixit of Great Britain. Sir Edward
Grey^s warning had been promptly met by protest on
the part of the French Foreign Office, and they main-

};

Till-] FASHODA FEVER

tainod that wo had no moral or legal right to treat the
derelict province in the Southern Soudan as shut out
from all civilized influence merely because of our sup-
posed revisionary rights. Hut the very people who
took this position most vehemently were equally frank
in declaring that after tlie stricken Held of Omdurnuui
the ^larcliand expedition was an anachronism, and the
sooner it disappeared the better. " There is no one,
believe me," said an eminent French journalist, who
had excellent opportunities of knowing what he was
talking about — " there is no one single Frenchman in
the Government or out of it who does not know that
after you reconquered Khartoum, ]\rarcliand's position
became untenable, and the only question was how he
was to be withdrawn. That is admitted on all hands;
it ought not to be beyond the task of diplomacy to
enable us to extract him without inflicting \ipon us a
public humiliation. AV(» made a false move and we
admit it, and only wish to save our face." " And how
can that be done?" I asked. "Oh, A'ery easily," he
replied; " it can easily be arranged; a little pourhoire!
Delcasse's position is rather serious. If he were to
retreat under menace, it might bring down the Gov-
ernment, and we cannot afford to affront the Army
by the public acceptance of any humiliation. AVe all
heartily wish that Marchand had never reached Fa-
shoda, but as he is there, we are equally anxious not to
bring about a Ministerial crisis, or something that
might be more serious than a j\rinisterial crisis, by our
being compelled to eat humble pie. No, what is to

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Tfif; UNITED UTATEki OF EUROPE

be done is very simple. You can either ignore the
Marc'hand expedition, regarding it as only a mission
of civilization, which yoii are glad to welcome to the
territory under your dominion, or you can grant
Delcasse a little pourhoire in the shape of some
more or less empty concession anywhere you like all
round the world, anything that would enable M. Del-
casse to claim a diplomatic victory which would
save his prestige with the country. At the same
time you Avould get all that you want." So said
my friend, expressing therein the feeling of his
nation.

In British official circles there seemed to be a gen-
eral expectation that some such pourhoire would be
forthcoming, and that France would be let off cheap
for having made a false move — " the unfriendly act "
— just at the time when England had reestablished
her prestige by smashing the Khalifa at Omdurman.
On the other hand, there was a general expectation
among the bystanders, especially the Americans, that
the matter would not pass over so easily. " You may
depend upon it," said one keen observer, " John Bull
will take it out of the French this time, mark my words
if lie do< not. After all, human nature is human na-
ture, and the old gentleman has stood so much, you
can't blame liim greatly, if having got the French in
a corner, he gives them beans. Germany smacked
your face in the Transvaal, Russia wiped your eye at
Port Arthur, the Turk has drawn a long nose at you
in Constantinople, the French have been tricking you

I ^

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Silt KI)\V\I!n (;l!EY. -M.I'.

laonr iiox. joiix Moiii.Kv. m.i*.

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KHUIT IKIN, II. II. ASCiLlTlI, M.r. ItlClIT 1I(>\. sill UKMiV KOWI.KI!, Ml'

7
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THE FiaUODl FEVER

in Madagascar and worrying you on the Niger — be
sure John Bull will pay them out now, if only to set
himself up again in his own conceit. Let the French
out quietly — don't you believe it! They have got to
be kicked down the front doorsteps with full musical
honors." That, or something like it, was what my
American friend said to me, and events, it must be
admitted, subsequently justified his estimate of the
situation.

The one easy and obvious way out of the difficulty
was for Sir Edmund Monson to have accepted j\I. Del-
casse's assurance that Marchand was only a missionary
of civilization, to have welcomed him with effusion,
to have declared that one reason why we had recon-
quered the Soudan was in order to open it up to such
gallant explorers as Marchand, and to offer the adven-
turous little man all the assistance which all civilized
Governments are called upon to render to shipwrecked
travellers who may be stranded upon their coasts.
Such an assurance could have been given with suffi-
cient ironical emphasis to give the French clearly to
understand that we appreciated to its full extent the
unfriendly nature of the act which launched Captain
^farchand on his bootless expedition. It would also
have asserted in the strongest possible terms the in-
herent strength of our position, a strength so great that
it was ludicrous to assume the possibility that half a
dozen Frenchmen with a tricolor could possibly raise
the Fashoda question by sitting down on a marshy
island in the Nile under the cover of our guns, under

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the shelter of our flag, and under the authority of the
Sirdar.

An American Peace Commissioner, with whom I
was discussing the matter in Paris, said that an infinite
deal of nonsense was talked about this matter of the
flag. " When I went to visit Mount Sinai I travelled
with a cortege — bearers, escorts, etc. — and everywhere
I always flew the Stars and Stripes. If the Sultan
had been in a mind to pick a quarrel with me, he could
have discovered that Uncle Sam was raising the Mount
Sinai question because I had camped on the slopes of
the famous mountain; but the Turk, not choosing to
make a quarrel, ignored the flag, regarding it as the
merely patriotic flourish of a traveller within his
dominions. You could have done the same about
Marchand if you had not wanted to pick a quarrel."

When I wont to Berlin, and from Berlin to St.
Petersburg, I heard the same kind of talk always. By
the time I reached Russia the Government had pub-
lished Sir Edmund Monson's dispatches; and, to use
the vulgar phrase, all the fat was in the fire at once.
It was diflicult on the other side of the Continent to
follow all the details of things in England; but one
fact stood out conspicuously — namely, that the fore-
cast of the American observer had been a correct one:
John Bull was about to compel the French to undergo
public humiliation before Europe. The disadvantage
of making the immense concession that a strolling
Frenchman with a few yards of bunting could raise
the Fashoda question seemed to have been overlooked,

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THE FAiSlIODA FEVER

compared with tlie advantage of having it out with
the French. The Ciovernmcnt having taken up this
line, what could a patriotic Opposition do but support
it? ^ay, they rallied to the appeal all the more
eagerly because of the opportunity which it afforded
them of emphasizing their dislike of what they de-
lighted to regard as the feebleness of Lord Salisbury's
policy. Lord Rosebery led the way by a speech which
showed that, although he had abandoned the leader-
ship, he was still the leader of the Liberal Party.
When he gave the word, great was the multitude of
the preachers. Xearly every Liberal newspaper in
the country wheeled into line, and of all the occupants
of the front Opposition bench there was not one who
ventured to dispute his authority.

In discussing this extraordinary unanimity mth a
very clear-headed Liberal friend, after my return, he
replied, " What other course could we take? No
doubt your phrase that we should treat Marchand's
expedition as a picnic party and welcome him to the
shelter and protection of the 1 British flag was the
simple, the natural, and by far the easiest way out.
No one felt that more strongly than myself. But in
order to avail ourselves of it, it was necessary that Sir
Edmund Monson and Lord Salisbury should have
taken that line from the first, and, as politely and iron-
ically as possible, smothered with ridicule the prepos-
terous idea that an explorer in difficulties could, by
the mere process of setting up his tent on British ter-
ritory, have raised any question about sovereignty, any

rilE UXITED STATES OF EUROPE

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more than if lie had set up his tent on Dartmoor. But,
unfortunately for us, the Government did not take
that line. AVhcn they published Monson's dispatches,
they made France the present of admitting that the
Fashoda question had been raised, apparently for the
purpose of driving them out of it. Under these cir-
cumstances, what could a good patriot do? Surely
nothing but what we did — namely, to insist that as
Lord Salisburv had refused to take the short cut out,
and had apparently made up his mind that the French
had to be turned out neck and crop, the only thing
that we could do was to bar the door against any more
of those graceful concessions which would have made
us ridiculous in the eyes of Europe and humiliated us
before France. The fact was, the whole of the agita-
tion in this country, from Lord Rosebery's speech
downwards, instead of being a manifestation of confi-
dence in the Government, was in reality the strongest
possible illustration of the fact that we knew Ministers
would not stand to their guns unless they were backed
up from behind. If we had possessed a really strong
Government, there would have been no need for
bottle-holding them in the extraordinary fashion that
Avas adopted; but, as we all knew" our Salisbury, and
knew that he would run away if he got the chance, it
was necessary to adjure him by all our gods, every
morning and every afternoon, that our unanimous
opinion was backing him up, and that we would as-
suredly trample him under foot if he tried on any
more of his graceful concessions. Believe me,'' said

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Kiiidlt (Uiil Fry
TIIK KT. HON. A. .1. liAI.KurK

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TIIK I!T. HON. LOUD HOSKUKUY

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THE FASHODA FEVER

my friend, " that is the ve7'ite wale of the wliole affair.
We had got a weak, fumbling Government, one sec-
tion of which was always threatening war, and the
other half was always backing down. We had stood
that kind of thing till we could stand it no longer.
Then vou must remember that the French had been
very irritating. They wore firmly convinced that
under no circumstances would Lord Salisbury stand
firm. You could not talk to the politicians and jour-
nalists of Paris without feeling that they, one and all,
had got the ingrained conviction that at the last mo-
ment Lord Salisbury's love of peace would overpower
all other considerations, and he would give way rather
than fight. So we upheld him, and barred the door
in such a way behind him, that with the best will in
the world he was shut up to war if the French refused
to budge." That, no doubt, is the true explanation
of the extraordinaiy rally of the Opposition, headed
by Lord Rosebery, in support of an Administration
concerning whose foreign policy each and all of the
said " ralliv. ," beginning with Lord Rosebery, had
expressed publicly and privately their utter distrust
and contempt-

The effect of these tactics on the Continent, so far
as it came under my observation, was to create the
impression that the English were spoiling for a fight,
that they had France on the hip, and they knew it,
and were determined to force her to accept the grim
alternatives — Back Down or Fight! A friend of
mine to whom I had written from St. Petersburg ask-

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ing Avliat clianco thoro was of a national movomont in
favor of the Pcaco Conference, replied: " Yonr letter
finds this city in a ferment," (he was writing on Octo-
ber 15th), " and all onr people pouring oil on flame,
which makes my heart half sick, half hot. A cry for
the Tsar's policy or for peace to-day wonld only drive
the swine more violently down the steep. But the
day will soon come for a deliverance." Three weeks
later, T received another letter from London, dated
November 4th, in reply to a suggestion that something
should be done to back up the Peace Conference in
England. " Back up the Conference, you say! But
I tell you the British lion is roaring at his loudest. I
have never seen the noble brute so intractable; you
must wait until the fever has ])assed out of the acute
and delirious stage. I feel that this will not last.
Lord Salisbury is the only man in England for your
purpose, and he is hlase and sceptical. lie ought to
take John Bull bv the throat: nobodv else can! The
Liberal Party is wholly useless — a fearful saying, but
true."

When I got to Constantinople, I found that the
general impression among the English there was en-
tirely in accord with the estimate which I had formed
of the situation in St. Petersburg; that is to say, they
believed that an amount of fanfaronade had been
made, apparently in order to force an open door, but
reallv to force Prance to fioht. Private letters from
London showed that, however far ]\rinisters and the
responsible leaders of the Opposition might be from

THE FASUODA FEVER

desiring so great u crime, there were iindoiibtedly
many among those who gave impulse and momentum
to the public movement who were passionately bent
upon forcing on war. As one correspondent put it,
" We are never likely to have such a chance again for
settling old scores with France. It would be a thou-
sand pities not to smash her, now we have got the
chance." The chance, of course, consisted in the fact
that the Russian Government was publicly committed
to a policy of peace, that the raw which had existed
for some years between London and Berlin had been
healed, at least on the surface, that France was dis-
tracted by the passions excited by the Dreyfus case,
and that the inferiority of her fleet was so notorious
that the immediate result of a declaration of war would
have been the disappearance of the French flag from
the ocean.

AVhen, in 1878, Lord Beaconsfield, having failed
to fight his three campaigns against Russia for the
deliverance of his friend and ally the Turk, made war
on Afghanistan, a Liberal leader made a sarcastic re-
mark which the recent clamor of the war party in
England forcibly recalls to my mind. A gentleman
was out driving one day, when his horse suddenly
belted and dashed frantically down the street. " Can't
you stop him? " said the 0A\Tier to his coachman.
" Xo," said the Jehu, " he has got the bit between his
teeth." " Then," said the gentleman philosophically,
" take care and run into something cheap ! " Last
year France was alone, France was weak, France was
7

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distracted by internal troubles; therefore she was
cheap enough to run into. And so all the barbaric
tomtoms of the unregenerate Jingo were set beating;
and Alfred Austin, who nuiy be regarded as medicine-
man and witch-doctor, crisped the British lion's mane,
and made him roar to his heart's content. To out-
siders, who looked at the matter across the Continent,
this blatant bellicosity of the public seemed somewhat
cowardly, with too much of '' liit him because he's
down " in it altogether to minister to the self-respect
of the self-regarding Briton abroad. But to others
who approached it from a different standpoint the folly
of it seemed even more conspicuous than its meanness.
For, the moment it was known that Russia would not
support the French in going to war about Fashoda, it
was certain that France would yield, and all this tre-
mendous pounding of heavy artillery secured for us
no permanent advantage. Fashoda was in our hands,
for the French occupation was an occupation pour
rire. "When France gave way, she abandoned noth-
ing that she could possibly have maintained; whereas,
the kicking of her downstairs with musical honors,
Avliile it gave us nothing that was not in our possession
before w^e started, was not calculated to make France
more easy and accommodating in dealing with us in a
cause when she had a stronger case both in letter and
in fact. In other words, the French would have gone
out of Fashoda quietly if we had given them a little
pourhoire; whereas, now^ that we have insisted upon
kicking them out publicly in the presence of the ser-

rill'! rXSlIODA FEVER

vants, the pourhoire will have to ho nnioh larger. Wo
may ohjoct, and swear that we shall iiovor, never, never
give any pourhoire; hut all negotiations are matters <>t'
give and take, and we may do])ond npon it the reeent
performance of the British lion has not hoon of a na-
tnre to make France more amenahlo to reason, or more
desirous of straining a point in order to come to an
amicahle nndoi'standing with ns on other questions
where she is hotter ahlo to liohl her own.

AVhen I came to Uome I found that opinions varied.
Among our eountrvmon there wore those who gave
full expression to the feeling that it was high time to
teach these French a lesson, and that wo had heen put
upon so much that wo should now put our foot down
and show that wo could fight, and so forth; while
others were impressed hy the frightful possibility of
the general war which seemed to bo so lightly hazarded
by the ^^ ar-mongers of the press. One acute observer
said to me, when we Avere discussing this question
under the shadow of the Quirinal, " It has been a
great deliverance. You may not believe me, but I
am firmly convinced that no power in Italy could have
held the Italian people back from declaring war on
France the day after the first French fleet had been
swept from the sea. Any Ministry that attempted
to check such a movement would have been swept
away at once. The Italians would have felt that their
chance had come, and thev would have struck in a
moment at their hated foe." This mav be so, or it
may not; but that the contingency was believed to be

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not only possible, but probable, and even certain,
was a grim reminder of the gigantic issues which trem-
bled in the balance when onr CJovernment decided to
reject tlie picnic-party solution, and elected to compel
France, on risk of war, to atone for her " unfriendly
act " by formally evacuating Fashoda.

The theory that John Bull has been bested every
time for years past in his negotiations with his neigh-
bors, and that in the struggle for existence and the
scrimmage for the world he has been badly worsted,
is one of those delusions which seem to indicate that
a morbid hypochondriasis has taKen temporary posses-
sion of a part of our people. There is one, and only
one, region in which there are alarming signs of our
not being able to hold our own. But, character-
istically enough, this one serious danger is entirely
ignored by those who arc most prompt to sound the
alarm. The notion that the statesmen and sovereigns
of the Continent form their estimate of the fighting
capacity of the British from the lollowing claque of
London newspapers is one of the most extraordinary
delusions that ever possessed the public mind. If any-
thing were required to convince the Continental mind
that English newspapers are utterly worthless, even
as reporters of what is actually going on in their own
country, there could hardly be a more striking instance
than has been supp'"3d by this Fashoda incident. For
weeks, nay, for months, the British newspaper press
stuffed its columns with the most alarming accounts
of the feverish activity that prevailed in all our ar-

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101

senals and dockyards. Every day brought forth new
reports of fresh preparations for instant war. It was
mobilization here, there and everywhere. The whole
land seemed to be reverberating with the clangor of
preparations for war. Again and again I was asked
by most intelligent foreigners how many millions
we had spent in making ready for war. I always
shrugged my shoulders and said that I did not believe
that the expenditure would exceed a hundred thousand
pounds. The whole affair was a gigantic mise-en-
scene, a game of bluff, played out to the end with
astonishing intrepidity and nerve by gentlemen of my
own profession, who felt it necessary to beat the big
drum in order to keep their Government up to the
mark. The utter amazement with which this explana-
tion was received led me to justify the faith that was
in me by two very important facts which had escaped
public attention. One was that the Chief Constructor
of the Navy, the man who has designed all our modern
battleships, and who is the one man of all others whose
presence would be indispensable at Whitehall were
there any real question of the expenditure of millions
on the Navy, was quietly enjoying his two months'
holiday on Sir George Xewnes's dahabeeyah on the
Nile. The other was that the head of the Victualling
Department, instead of working double tides at Ports-
mouth in order to make ready for war, was placidly
enjoying his holiday under the sunny skies of Italy.
No one believed me. They were quite certain that
we were pouring out millions like water in order to

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make ready for war. It was not, therefore, without
a certain grim satisfaction th.:t I noticed, when I ar-
rived in Paris, that the Chancellor of the Exchequer
had found it necessary to make public statement of the
fact that, so far from having spent millions, the extra
expenditure upon all the amazing manifestations of
activity which our newspapers had reported had only
amounted to £50,000, chiefly incurred in replacing
the stocks of coal which had been depleted owing to
the strike in Soutli AVak's. Aftei* sucli an anti-climax,
our newspapers will have to beat a very big drum a
very long time before any one abroad takes rat-tat-too
seriously.

The fact, of course, is that our l^avj does not re-
(piire any tremendous expenditure in order to prepare
it for war. The story goes that Yon Moltke, after
having dispatched his famous telegram, " Krieg,
inohil! " that launched the German armies upon Im-
perial France, was found by a friend amusing himself
placidly as if nothing had happened. When his friend
expressed his amazement, Moltke replied, "Everything
has been ari-anged, mobilization is being carried out,
there is nothing more at present for me to do.'' So
it is with every well-equipped army or navy, and all
this preternatural parade of fluster and fidget is an
evidence, not of strength, but of weakness, a confes-
sion of unreadiness, not the calm composure of con-
scious strength.

Looking at England and the manifestations of Eng-
lish public opinion from abroad, it seemed as if the

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103

country were suffering from a bad attack of fidgets.
The element of John Bull's strength in times past has
been due to the fact that he has been exceedingly
tough, with a very robust faith in his own integrity
and his own strength. The idea of good old John
Bull caring a single straw for all the pin-pricks of his
envious rivals is inconceivable, ile cared no more
for these things than his bovine prototype for the
croaking of frogs in a marsh. But of late there seems
to have grown up an astonishing school of hysterical
patriots who imagine that they show their devotion to
their country by the vehemence with which they bel-
low when any puny Frenchman pricks them with a
pin or with a pen. It would do these gentlemen good
to see a bull-fight in Spain. It might teach them, if
they were capable of understanding anything, that the
whole art and mystery of circumventing the bull is to
make him mad by pin-pricking him till he loses his
self-possession. Then he rushes down upon the sword
of the matador. The angry bellowings, the pawing of
the sand of the arena, the tail-lashing, and the savage
and fatal final rush upon his tormentors, reproduce,
only too faithfully, the way in which many of our
journalists would conduct the foreign policy of Eng-
land. In the hubbub of Fleet Street and the cheers
of the music-halls these considerations are often lost
sight of* ^ it nevertheless it is equally true of nations
as of individuals, " in quietness and confidence sliall
be vour strength. " If our Xavv hvA hoan weak, tliero
might have been some excuse for endeavoring to make

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up for our feebleness by the shrilly outcries and bar-
baric war whoop of the savage. But as our Navy is
strong enough to sweep any possible adversary from
the seas, it would be more sensible, to say nothing of
being more Christian, if our Mohawks would spend
le.^i? time over their wa^-paint, and cease to make night
and day hideous by their yells.

Of course, I shall be roundly assailed for saying
monstrous things, in thus stating how the recent out-
burst of English feeling appeared to an Englishman
travelling abroad. But the fact is as I have stated it.
I shall be told, no doubt with perfect truth, that noth-
ing was further from Lord Salisbury's mind and will
than a war with France. That is undoubtedly true.
In the sanity and sober sense of the Prime Minister
the Empire has found a strong refuge from the vio-
lence of the Jingo faction. IS^either would I for a
moment assert that any responsil)le statesman, whether
Liberal or Conservative, deliberately played for war,
although most of them seemed to have taken the risk
of war with a very light heart.

But it is not there that the mischief lay. When it
was decided to publish Monson's dispatches, and prac-
tically to appeal for a patriotic demonstration against
France, the IMinisters called a spirit from the vasty
deep to serve their purpose which they might have
found it very difficult to cope ^^dth when they wished
to dispense with its assistance. To excite the war pas-
sion in a people so warlike as the English is a crime
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105

homicide is justified, by absolute necessity. The oc-
casion was tempting and tlie moment propitious for
such an appeal. The Sirdar with his victorious troops,
fresh from the reconquest of the Soudan, had arrived
in England in the midst of the Fashoda fever. Not
even the most envious rival could deny that Sir Her-
bert Kitchener had displayed in an eminent degree
the great administrative and military qualities which
have enabled men of our race to build up the British
Empire. lie had fought and wo: two gi'eat battles
against a savage foe, and he had reestablished British
authority in the ciiy of the Soudan which will be for
ever associated with the greatest humiliation inflicted
on England in our time. There was, therefore, ample
explanation of the enthusiastic welcome with which
he was received at home. At the same time, those
who saw things from the outside could not help a cer-
tain feeling of regret at the lack of perspective dis-
played in the extraordinary demonstration with which
the Sirdar and his men were received. What more
could have been done to mark our national gratitude
and esteem if he had been Wellington returning from
a ten years' death-grapple with the Despot of the Con-
tinent? Plere, again, there was visible that absence of
dignity and reserve which used to be so characteristic
of our people. The almost Roman triumph which was
accorded to the Sirdar naturally ministered to the pas-
sions which made a certain section of our people fall
an easy prey to their besetting sin. Hence there
sprang up many who openly and constantly talked of a

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war with France. " Now is our chance; we should be
fools to miss it. We shall never have such an oppor-
tunity again of settling with her once for all."

Shortly after my return, I was in the editorial office
of a well-known newspaper, where we were talking
about peace and war. The editor remarked that he
was almost the only person on his staff who had not
wanted to have " a slip into France," and appealed for
confirmation to his assistant, who remarked that nine
out of ten persons whom he mcl even then (this was
at the beginning of December) were much disap-
pointed that we had not " had it out with France."
" You must be keeping very bad company," I re-
marked. " K'ot at all," he said; " I go in and out of
the City a great deal, and certainly that is the impres-
sion that I gain from what I hear from the people I
meet." " The City! " I exclaimed; " but the City of
London, whenever a war fever is in the air, is one of
the worst places in the world. Don't you know that
when a war fever breaks out the devil always sets up
his headquarters in the City? He has another favorite
haunt — the clubs of Pall Mall; and he divides his time
between the two." " Yes," said the editor, " and as
he goes from one to the other, he must of necessity
pass most of his time in Fleet Street." The observa-
tion was just, for of all energetic children of the
devil the London pressman, like the journalist of
Paris, when the cannon-thunder is in the air, is about
the worst. It was so in 1878; it has been so in 1898.
I was repeating this conversation to a well-known pub-

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107

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lie man, who smiled and added: '' Yes, no doubt; the
Evil One spends much of his time in perambulating
Fleet Street; but he always has a chop and a cup of
tea in Printing-house Square."

It would be an interesting subject for discussion as
to how far the spectacle of the easy victories won by
our American kinsfolk over the Spanish fleet tended
to create, or at any rate to strengthen, this groun<l-
swell of the lower passions of the English nature. Cer-
tainly, it seemed somewhat unnatural to English-
speaking men on this side of the sea that English-
speaking men on the other side of the sea should have
won great sea-fights, and mopped up the navies of a
moribund Latin Empire, while we, with the greatest
fleet in the world, were standing by with folded arms,
enduring the taunts of the houlevard press. The Old
Adam is strong in the average Briton. His Angers
began to itch for a iight, and the talk that has gone on,
the echoes of which were still aadible when I returned
to England, showed an unmistakable readiness on the
part of many of our people to fight, with or without a
justification, should an opportunity arise, especially
when it was what, in the slang of the street, might be
regarded as " a sure thing."

This readiness or. the part of our people to fight for
mere fighting's sake is much better appreciated on the
Continent than it is in England. At home we plume
ourselves so greatly upon our love for peace, that many
of us have actuallv come to the conclusion that John
Bull when seen from abroad 11 ii huge, fat, overgrown

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sheep. N'othing could be further from the reality of
things. A llussian poet once called us " the gray wolf
of the Xorthern Seas," and that phrase embodies accu-
rately enough the impression of other European na-
tions as to our real character. We may hate war, but
we have made more wars in the last fifty years than all
the other nations put together They might be little
wars, but, nevertheless, the\ v. ere wars. The chances
that an English soldier will see action and kill his man
are very many times greater than that a similar fate
will befall any soldi-3r on the Continent. As for am-
bition and aggression, there is not, in the opinion of
Europeans, any Powder in the universe that is so im-
perious and so aggressive as Great Britain. Of course,
we repudiate this indignantly, but the cynical and
sceptical foreigner shrugs his shoulders, and replies,
" To begin with, you claim as your natural birthright
the dominion of the seas — that is to say, two-thirds at
least of the planet belong to you in fee simple, ^ext,
if you look round the world, you will find that you
have snapped up every bit of the land that is worth
having either for colonizing or for trade. You have
taken all the vantage spots of all the continents, and if
any one of us ventures to pick up any of your leavings,
there is immediatelv a howl raised throughout the
English-speaking world, and imperious demands are
made that you must immediately take something p^se,
in order to balance our pickings. The net result .
that though you started with much more territory
abroad than all of us put together, you have gone on

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109

multiplying your additions nntil there is practically
nothing left for other people. As for Russian aggres-
sion, of which you are always talkin^?;, it is indeed a
case of Satan reproving sin. In the last fifteen years,
for every square mile of territory which Russia has
annexed, you have annexed a hundred, and we might
multiply tliat by a thousand if you were to take into
account the spheres of influence which you have
established." *

Yet, notwithstanding all this, which is no overstate-
ment of things as they are, nothin; is so common as

* Speaking on this subject when he resigned the Liberal
leadership, Lord Rosebery said: " You have acquired so
enormous a mass of territory that it will be years before you
can settle it, or control it, or make it capable of defence, or
make it amenable to the arts of your administration. Have
you any notion what it is that you have added to the Em-
pire in the last few years? I have taken the trouble to make
a computation which I believe to be correct. In twelve
years you have added to the Empire, whether in the shape of
actual annexation, or of dominion, or of what is called the
sphere of influence, 2,600,000 square miles of territory. But
just compare these figures. It will show you more clearly
what you have done. The area of the United Kingdom^ —
England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, the Channel Islands, and
so forth— is 120,000 square miles. Therefore, to the 120,000
square miles of the United Kiiigdom, which is the heart of
your Empire, you have added in the last twelve years
twenty-two areas as large as that of the United Kingdom
itself. That marks out for many years a policy from which
you cannot depart if you would. You may be compelled to
draw the sword — I hope you may not be — but the foreign
policy of Great Britain, until this territory is consolidated,
filled up, settled, and civilized, must inevitably be a policy
of peace."

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to find in Englisli newspapers perpetual lamentations
over the extent to which we have lost our position in
the world, owing, be it remarked, to our meekness, our
patience, our unwillingness to fight, and scrupulous
observance of nnr neighl)ors' landmarks!

I remember once l)eing visited by a poor woman
whose mind was diseased, and who came to inform me
of a great and terrible disaster that had overtaken her.
She referred to it in terms of such unaffected horror,
that it was some time before I could induce her to tell
me the nature of the terrible evil from which she was
suffering. At last it came out. Owing to the machi-
nations of a certain enemy of hers, who had practised
his foul arts in order to injure her, the whole of her
inside was undergoing a mysterious change by which
it was being transformed into the inside of a dog.
Nothing that I could say could persuade her that she
was mistaken. To arguments and to ridicule she was
utterly impervious; she knew that her inside was be-
coming a dog's inside, and the process would soon be
complete, unless something — she did not know what
— could be done in order to break the spell and restore
her to her natural condition. I have often thought
of this poor lunatic when reading English papers.
They seem to imagine that, by some marvellous magi-
cal incantation of some wizard of peace, the wdiole of
the interior of honest John Bull is being converted
into the " innards " of a sheep. They are possessed
with the idea, the thought of the transformation which
they are imdergoing has got upon their nerves, and in

TUt) FA^HOUA FllMUi

XiX

order to counteract it tliey arc continually clamoring
for something to be done, some sabres to be rattled, or
some drums to be beaten, or volleys to be fired. Not
unless the cannon-thunder sounds in their ears, morn-
ing, noon, and night, can they be persuaded that they
are not becoming the sheep of their imagination.
It is a mental malady and a very distressing one,
especially for their neighbors, who know that John
Bull, so far from being a sheep at heart, is in reality
one of the most pugnacious, self-assertive entities
that the world contains. lie is only too reckless
with his fists, and only too regardless of his neighbors'
toes.

Side by side with this pugnaciou'=' ?lement, which
is ever prompt to respond to outward stimulus, there
is another characteristic of our people which is even
more unlovely. There is, after all, a certain amount
of heroism in the spectacle of a man who, in a good
cause or ill, is willing to go forth and kill or be killed
in support of his country's cause. But that element
of greatness is absolutely absent from those who
clamor for war much as the Boman mob clamored for
gladiatorial games in the amphitlieatre. Papers are
dull unless there is some fighting going on somewhere;
therefore, " the war for our money." Our people have
not the conscription, and the people who write in the
newspapers, as the Emperor of Bussia once somewhat
bitterly and sarcastically remarked, " are never sent
to fight in the first line." It is now as it was when
Coleridge wrote: —

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Secure from actual warfare, we have loved
To swell the war-whoop, passionate for war!
We — this whole people — have been clamorous
For war and bloodshed; animating sports,
The which we pay for as a thing to talk of,
Spectators, and not combatants.

All the while that our people have been surrender-
ing themselves to the unholy passion of military glory,
and revelling in the thought that they were strong
enough to whip Franee, and, in conjunction with the
United States, to rule the world, they have been ob-
livious to the real danger which threatens our suprem-
acy, nay, even our very existence as a nation. We
are the workshop of the world; we do not grow food
enough in our island to feed our people for more than
one-third or one-fourth of the year. We earn our
daily bread, literally in very real fashion, by the fact
that we are able to command the markets of the world
bv the excellence of our manufactures, the skill of our
workmen, and the cheapness with which we produce
our goods. This is the base, the solid foundation of
our Imperial grandeur. If the factory and the work-
shop are not busy, neither army nor navy would be able
to keep us in existence. Yet each of the three great
conditions upon which our commercial ascendency
rests is threatened without the mass of our people giv-
ing it even a thought. Whether it is in the excellence
of our manufactures, the skill of our workmen, or in
the economy of our methods of production, we are
losing our premier position. Although we have been
extending our Empire and pegging out claims for

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113

future colonies and dependencies with the utmost per-
tinacity and courage, the tell-tale statistics of our for-
eign trade remain obstinately silent as to the com-
mercial benefits which wo have gained tlierefrom. A
thousand pin-pricks, such as those wliich so irritated
our journalists, are as nothing compared with the one
portentous fact that for the last ten years our trade
has practically remained at a standstill. The trade
of Germany has increased; the trade of the United
States has gone up by leaps and bounds, until it has
now taken the first place in the world's records. But
our trade remains stationary. Instead of concentrat-
ing our attention upon the removal of the causes which
have enabled our competitors to beat us in our own
markets, and gradually to threaten us with extinction
in the neutral markets, we have fretted and fumed
about prestige and " open doors " to impasses, and we
know not what. The real weakness is that of the
heart and the brain — of the interior, not of the remote
extremities. AYe have grown too comfortable to exert
ourselves and to hold our own in the real struggle for
existence, -which is waged, not in the battlefield, but
in the markets of the world. AVe spend millions over
armaments, and grudge thousands for education. AVe
send military expeditions to the uttermost ends of the
world, but grudge the expense requisite to make any
careful or systematic use of the money Avhich we de-
vote for the promotion of technical education. Our
trade is periodically paralyzed by insensate disputes
between masters and men, the idea being that as it

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was said that France was rich enough to pay for her
glory, so we are rich enough to afford to play ducks
and drakes with our business. For the moment all
goes well; there is a boom in trade; the cry of the
unemployed is no longer heard in our streets. But
booms are temporary; depression follows inflation as
night follows day, and then there will be an evil look-
out for our people and for our country, unless our
statesmen are wise betimes, and, turning their atten-
iion from the barren competition of armaments and
of conquests, are, in the words of Count Muravioff,
" to utilize for productive purposes the wealth which
is now exhausted in a ruinous and, to a great extent,
useless competition for increasing the powers of
destruction."

CHAPTER II

THE CHINESE PUZZLE

The causa causans of my visit to Russia was not
the Peace Rescript, which, at the time when I decided
on my journey, had not appeared. ^ly real objective
was quite other than that. Ten years before, at the
close of my audience with the late Emperor Alexander
III., he invited me to return to Russia to sec him
again, should relations between Russia and England
threaten to become strained. During his lifetime
there was no occasion to act upon this invitation, but
in the midsummer of this vear it seemed as if the occa-
sion had arisen whicli, ten years before, had been dis-
cussed as a conceivable but regretta])le possibility.

T^ntil the last vear or two tli(^ ono yTcat source of
difficulties between England and Russia was the slow
decay of the Ottoman Empire. Tlie difficulty of har-
monizing our clashing interests, or wliat were believed
to be clashing interests, in tlio oast of Europe has suf-
ficed for the last twenty yenrs to employ the energies
of tlie diplomats of London and St. Petersl)urg. Of
late, the troubles of Turkisli origin liave steadily
diminished. Russin under Prince Lobanoff went far
in the direction of adopting the policy of Lord Bea-

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consfield, by which the maintenance of the indepen-
dence and integrity of the Ottoman Empire was
treated as the interest of a ci' ilized European Power.
On the other hand, Britain, imder the influence of Mr.
Gladstone's enthusiasm, and the ever-increasing force
of facts, had gone far towards adopting the traditional
policy of Russia as protector of the Christians of the
East. But neither country was sufficiently at home
in its exchanged role to feel firm enough on the new
ground to adopt any policy likely to bring them into
collision in the Levant. When the Armenian atroci-
ties reached their acute stage, the divergence of opin-
ion between the two countries came to a head. But
England was not sufficiently Gladstonian nor Russia
sufficiently Beaconsfieldian for either Empire to push
its views to such an extreme as to endanger the general
peace. So the Armenians were sacrificed, and Abdul
chortled in his joy over the paralysis of Europe, and
blessed Allah for the efficient protection of Prince
LobanoflP, who was not ashamed to wear on his Musco-
vite bosom a decoration which he received from the
Great Assassin. But just when the good people w^ho
were willing to sacrifice hecatombs of Eastern Chris-
tians for the sake of a quiet life were congratulating
themselves upon the fact that peace reigned in Ar-
menia, another question rose in the Further East
which threatened to revive and accentuate the differ-
ences between the two Euipires. The rivalry of diplo-
matists, which had almost died out at Stamboul, shot
up into new and intenser activity in Pekin. The Sick

THE CHIXESE PUZZLE

117

Man of Europe ceased to command attention, for the
eyes of the world were turned to the Sick Man of Asia,
whose demise appeared to be rapidly approaching.

It was a false alarm, but for the time it lasted it was
all the same as if it were true. Our experience of
Turkey might have taught us to take the crisis in
China a little more philosophically. At any time dur-
ing this century the acutest observers of men and af-
fairs at Constantinople have expressed their opinion
that the Sick ]\Ian was very sick, sick even unto death.
Sick he was, no doubt, and sick unto death; but his
death was not yet. Over and over again has been re-
peated the warning which, nevertheless, we arc con-
stantly forgetting, that old empires which have lasted
for hundreds of years are much too toughly put to-
gether to go to pieces like a pack of cavds ])efore the
first flip of a hostile finger. Threatened empires, like
threatened men, live long. Generation after genera-
tion of ardent souls have lived and died in the fervent
faith that that great edifice of iniquity which the Otto-
man horde reared upon human skulls and watered by
human blood wns about to pass away and defile the
world no more; but the last year of the century finds
the Turk still in possession of Stamboul, still lording
it over the heritage of the Christian East, still living,
and likely to live until all those who wish him dead
and gone have themselves been gathered to the vast
majority.

Notwithstanding this great object-lesson as to the
tenacity of life in old-established empires, the British

118

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public no sooner heard that the Chinese Government
wLo sick, and very sick, than they incontinently
jumj^ed to the conclusion that the Sick Man of Asia
was going to die, and that we must bestir ourselves if
we wished to obtain a share of his intestate estate. As
a matter of fact, the Yellow Man may be sick, but he
is very far removed from the door of death. The co-
hesion and unitv of that vast conglomerate of human-
ity which stretches from Siberia to Burma, and from
the Yellow Sea to Turkestan, depends far more upon
the moral influence of its Government than upon the
material nexus of armies and navies and police ; and a
moral influence once firmly established over four hun-
dred millions of men is far too deeply rooted to be
pulled up like a garden weed by the finger and thumb
of a victorious Power. No doubt the Chinese cut a
very poor figure in the war with Japan. Their fleet
vanished from the sea, their army was defeated in
every battle, and they were compelled to cede to the
victorious Japanese whatever their victor chose to de-
mand. When the war was over, the Japanese found
themselves in possession of the two great strongholds
of AVei-IIai-Wei and Port Arthur, and all the world
hailed them as the rising Power of the Far East. The
blow to Chinese j restige in Europe and America was
immense, but in Cliina itself the loss of the fleet and
the cession of the northern fortresses affected the dim
myriads of yellow men in China about as much as the
trimming of a man's beard affects his digestion. Prob-
ably ninety-nine out of every hundred never so much

THE CnrXERE PUZZLE

110

as knew that a war had taken place, and those who
had heard the rumor of hostility are probably to this
day in a state of blissful ignorance as to which Power
triumphed in the fray. The moral authority of the
Government at Pekin renuiins as supreme — with
never a soldier to back it or a gunboat to fly its flag —
as it was before the war l)roko out.

All this was forgotten and ignored even by those
who should have known much better. The Russians,
it :'.ust be admitted, showed a sounder appreciation of
the tenacity of Chinese vitality than did the other
Powers. With the aid of Germany and France they
cleared the Japanese off the Asiatic mainland and re-
stored the territorial integrity of China. There the
matter might have remained without any complication
arising had it not been for the uncontrollable outburst
of the colonial fever in Germany. The opportune
murder of some German missionaries in the province
of Shantung afforded the German Emperor a welcome
pretext for seizing a portion of (/hinese territory.
Before seizing Kiao-Chau he cautiously approached
the Russian Emperor by tentative inquiries behind
which his real object was carefully concealed. Russia
had the right of anchoring her warships in the port of
Kiao-Chau. Would the Emperor object if Germany
were to share that privilege? No direct answer was
given at first, but ultimately it was understood that
Russia would have no objection to share that privilege
with Germany. So the first preliminary was gained.
The second preliminary was to ascertain whether

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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

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Russia would have any objection to Germany's exact-
ing reparation for the murder of her missionaries.
The offhand answer was returned : " Certainly not.
Russia could have no objection to the exaction of a rep-
aration." With these two assurances, one relating to
the anchoring of German ships in the harbor of Kiao-
Chau, and the other to the exaction of reparation for
the murder of German missionaries, the German Em-
pero:' made his great coup. Kiao-Chau was seized
and occupied, at first under the pretext of demanding
reparation for the murder of German missionaries.
N^ot until afterwards was it revealed that the repara-
tion demanded included the leasing or virtual cession
of the province of Kiao-Chau to the German Emperor.
It is believed, and even to this day it is sometimes
asserted, that the action of Germany in seizing Kiao-
Chau was prearranged beforehand with Russia. N^oth-
ing could be further from the fact. The seizure of
Kiao-Chau under the mask of a demand for reparation
for the murder of German missionaries was, and is,
bitterly resented in Russia as a bit of sharp practice
of which they haA-e ample ground to complain. So
intense, indeed, was the irritation created by the mere
suspicion of the German design, that I was told in
Berlin a telegram had been dispatched to Shanghai
countermanding Admiral Diedrichs's orders. Unfor-
tunately the Admiral had sailed before the telegram
arrived, and Europe was confronted with the fait
accompli of the German occupation of Kiao-Chau.
N'othing could have been more opposed to the wishes

THE CHINESE PUZZLE

121

of Russia. Russia's policy was tlie maintenance of
the integrity of the Cliinese Empire. In defence of
that integrity the Japanese at the very end of a vic-
torious war had been compelled under virtual threat
of war to clear out of the Liaotong Peninsula; and now
one of the Powers by which the integrity of China had
been vindicated against the Japanese became herself
the aggressor and despoiler of Chinese territory. If
at that time Russia and England had but been on
cordial terms of mutual confidence, it is probable that
concerted action on the part of all the other Powers
would have comj)elled Germany to discover that lier
occupation of Kiao-Chau was temporary and would
cease the moment the Chinese paid compensation for
the murdered missionaries. Unfortunately the Pow
ers all mistrusted each other, and concerted action was
regarded as out of the question. Even without con-
cert the question was considered as to whether or not
Russia should insist upon the evacuation of Kiao-
Chau; and it was only when, upon grave deliberation,
it was decided that Germany would not clear out with-
out a war, that it was resolved at St. Petersburg to
acquiesce in the inevitable and seek compensation else-
where. The Russians may have been right, or they
may have been wrong in their belief that the Germans
could not have been turned out without a war. If
they were right, no one can doubt that in their own
and in the interest of the general European peace they
did well to swallow the bitter mouthful and make the
best of it. It is indeed difficult to believe that the

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i'f-

'■n

German Emperor or the German people would have
accepted the frightful risk of a European war in order
to 2)ersist in seizing a port on the Chinese littoral. But
it is only just to a imit that the opinion arrived at by
the Ilussians as to the impossibility of turning the
Germans out of Kiao-Chau except by a war was shared
by the best authorities in Europe.

Rightly or wrongly the liussians decided that it was
T ot worth while to risk a war for the sake of Kiao-
Ohau; but it was felt that the action of Germany had
materially changed the situation. It was no longer
possible to maintain formally the integrity of China.
That integrity had been violated by the " mailed fist "
which had seized possession of Kiao-Chau. Germany
had established herself in force, if not within striking
distance, at least within easy proximity to Pekin. The
example of the ease with which the Chinese could be
plundered by any one who chose to pick their pockets
was likely to prove contagious. iSTo one knew what
would be the next step. The signal once having been
hoisted for the partition of China, it was felt at St.
Petersburg that any day might bring the news of a
fresh seizure of Chinese territory.

If by some exercise of imagination we could realize
the conception of England which has been formed by,
let lis say, the King of Uganda, we should probably
find that it would compare not unfavorably with the
conceptio;i which the British public has formed about
Russia. To the King of Uganda England is an en-
tity, a unit. England's policy, whether for peace or

■•/■s:.

THE CHINESE PUZZLE

123

for war, for annexation or for evacuation, is to him
the expression of a single will, lie does not discrim-
inate between Liberals and Conservati'^ 's, between
Government and Opposition, lie knows nothing of
those details which are imperceptible from a great dis-
tance. Hence he has probably strange ideas concern-
ing the vacillations, inconsistencies and bad faith of
the Power with which he has to do. In the same way,
while we speak about Russia, we imagine the great
Empire of one liunc^ ,jd and twenty nullions as a unit.
We speak of its Coven iient as if it were the will of
a single man being brought to bear continuously upon
the problem in quest^'on. In reality the Ivussian Gov-
ernment, like e^ cry other state, is a composite body.
It is swayed froui time to time by opposing tendencies
which find their embodiment not in parties so much
as in ministerial groups, which make themselves more
or less articulate exponents of the contending drifts of
sentiment. Hence there is often an appearance of
vacillation or of inconsistencv, and sometimes of down-
right bad faith, which would be perfectly understood
if we could but abandon what may be called the " King
of Uganda" point of view in considering Russian ques-
tions. The way in which the Chinese question was
dealt with after the seizure of Kiao-Chau is an appo-
site illustration of the inadequacy of the Uganda
method for appreciating what actually happened. As
soon as the German flag was hoisted over Kiao-Chau,
the Russians with one consent believed that the one
thing which tliey dreaded more than anything — a

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124

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

t;<

],i,

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scramble for the inheritance of the Sick Man of Asia
— was about to begin, and their eyes turned instinct-
ively to the one great Power whose armed force, con-
stantly mobilized on a war footing, hovered within
striking distance of Port Arthur.

Strange though it may seem to Englishmen who
alternately plume themselves upon the pharisaical vir-
tue with which they abstain from picking and stealing,
and display a Nebuchadnezzar-like pride in having
picked out all the plums from the world's pie, the Kus-
sians are firmly convinced that whenever there is a
scramble for any corner lots in the universe, John Bull
is dead sure to be first on the spot. Now there is one
particular corner lot in China which the Russians
could not and ought not to allow to pass into any other
hands than their own. This particular corner lot in
question was Port Arthur, with the related port of
Talienv/an. Port Arthur and Talienwan stand in
pretty much the same relation to each other as the
Spithead ports, Portsmouth and the Isle of Wight
stand to the docks of Southampton. Talienwan is the
only ice-free port through which Russia can obtain
access to the Pacific at all seasons of the year. It was
therefore absolutely necessary for the future develop-
ment of their vast Siberian Empire that the port of
Talienwan should be available as the terminus of their
great trans-Continental line. The reasonableness of
this opinion had been publicly recognized by Mr. Bal-
four, who, in a famous speech, had declared that so far
from England's having any objection to Russia's ob-

THE CHISESK PUZZLE

taining an ice-free port in the Pacific, nothing was
more to be desired in the interests of British trade tlian
that Hnssia should have such a port, and the British
Government therefore regarded her natural ambition
lO have a port in ice-free waters witli satisfaction and
approvah The Russians naturally took note of this
declaration with nnich satisfaction; and inasmuch as
Talienwan was the only ice-free port along that coast,
they regarded IMr. Balfour's speech as being equiva-
lent to a virtual handing over of 'I'alienwan to the Rus-
sian Government, whenever the railway had made suf-
ficient progress to justify a demand for the cession of
such a position on the coast. Here the Russians may
have been mistaken or they may not. Mr. Balfour's
words seemed to them sufficiently explicit ; and no one
who reads them to-day can marvel that the Russians
took them to mean exactly what they seemed to say,
for it is no use pretending that when you invite an-
other Power to " have " a port, you mean that she is
simply to enjoy in common with all the other Powers
a right of way through a port belonging to someone
else. It is well to bear this in mind, because it is the
key to much, if not to everything, that happened in
the spring of last year.

When the German flag was hoisted over Kiao-Chau,
opinion in the Russian capital was divided. One sec-
tion, which may be regarded as having its headquarters
in the Poreign Office, held that it was absolutely neces-
sary for the preservation of Russia's vital interests for
her to forestall the attempt to seize Port Arthur on the

196

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\ -

part of any other Power. This scliool maintained that
Enghnid was certain to seize Port Arthur either di-
rectly herself or indirectly through the Americans or
the Japanese. In any case, Port Arthur was much
too valuable a jewel to be left lying al)0ut loose, with
the signal flying from Kiao-Chau for the general
scrand)le. That was the view of one school. An
altogether different opinion prevailed in the section
which had as its centre and head the Ministry of Fi-
nance. Here it was maintained that Lord Salisbury
could be relied upon not to seize Port Arthur, and that
]\rr. Balfour, when he made his famous declaration as
to the right of Russia to an ice-free port, was speaking
in good faith, and meant exactly what he said. They
maintained, therefore, that seeing the right of Russia
to Talienwan had been recognized by England, and
that Port Arthur was to all intents and purposes an
integral part of Talienwan — for Port Arthur was un-
tenable with Talienwan in other hands — it was better
to let things remain as they were, to trust to England's
declarations and to still hold on to the old formula of
the integrity of China despite the inroad upon that
integrity which had been made by Germany. This
school violently opposed the occupation of Port
Arthur. They contended that to occupy such a posi-
tion would make Russia a partaker in the guilt and
responsibility of the partition of China, the prevention
of which had been the steady aim of Russian policy.
They maintained that to occupy Port Arthur w^ould
set two signals flying, instead of one, for the partition

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tTATun M/irs

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MAP HIIOWINQ IIKLATION OK POUT AUTIIUU TO TALIENWAN — AS
THE BPITHEAD POKTH AUE TO SOUTHAMPTON

MILIt _

SO iM ia MO ti» im
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RUSSIAN MANCHURIA

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THE CIIIXESE PUZZLE

187

of China, and would eliallenge tlic other Powers, not-
ably England, to join in the game of grab. It was
further insisted upon with great force, and, as the re-
sult proved, with truth, that it would be impossible to
take possession of Port Arthur without huving to
square the Japanese, and that this could only be done
by the abandonment of Russia's vantage ground in
Korea. Further, the railway was not built, and
would not be built for some years, during which the
stattis quo might remain. To occupy Port Arthur
would at once make Russia vulnerable. It would en-
tail an enormous expenditure, which the Treasury
could ill afford, for arming of the ports, and a still
more gigantic outlay in the building of a great Pacific
fleet. In addition to all those arguments they had
another, and perhaps the most powerful of all, in re-
serve. " The Chinese," they said, " will bitterly resent
our occupation of Port Arthur, and they will confound
us with the Germans as the despoilers of their Empire.
Our strength throughout the whole of the Chinese
Empire depends upon our moral influence with the
rulers at Pekin. Our position at Pekin is not weak-
ened, but rather strengthened by the jealousy and sus-
picion excited against Germany by the seizure of Kiao-
Chau. Therefore let us severely abstain from any
tampering with (^hinese integrity. Let us emphasize
our determination to maintain the integrity of the
Chinese Empire against all comers. Let us push for-
ward the construction of our railways, strengthen our
commercial interests in China, and rely upon the good

128

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faitli of England to save ns from the dangers of see-
ing Port Arthur and Talienwan pass under the con-
trol of another European State.''

The balance of opinion at St. Petersburg was
strongly in favor of this view. The Emperor for some
time kept an open mind, with strong predispositions
in favor of what may be regarded as the views of ^I.
"^Yitte as against those of Count l\ruravieif. This was
natural for many reasons. lie had travelled in the
East. He had no sympathy whatever witli the earth-
hunger which seems to possess some people like a con-
suming passion. He wished to leave the Chinese
alone. lie deprecated anything that would lead him
into collision with England. lie was even painfully
anxious to avoid saddling his treasury with any fur-
ther expenditure for armaments and munitions of war.
All the cards seemed to l)e in favor of the victory of
AVitte and the discomfiture of J\[uravieff. Unfor-
tunatelv the whole scene was chanued, and changed

t-' i> 7 (71

not so much by the action of the P)ritis]i Government
as by the steps taken on their own initiative by the
Britisli Admiral and the British And)assador. The
Admiral acted innocently, never dreaming Avhat mo-
mentous results would follow from the orders which
he had given. It is, jdas! impossible to say as much
for the action of the Ambassador.

As will be seen from what has been said of \]w argu-
ments of the contending schools of Kussian statesmen,
it was essential for the success of the non-annexation-
ists that England's good faith should be undisputed,

THE CHINESE PUZZLE

129

and that there should be no doubt whatever as to the
honesty of Mr. Balfour's declaration in favor of Russia
having an ice-free port, which could only be Talien-
wan, to which Port Arthur was a mere corollary. On
the other hand, the annexationists were keen to lay
hold of any sign that would seem to prove the insin-
cerity of the English Government, and to pounce upon
anything tliat looked as if we were trying to wriggle
out of Mr. Balfour'.-! assurances.

It was at this particular juncture that the Admiral
commanding the British fleet on the Pacific stations,
'' l)eing moved thereto of the devil," as the old legal
phrase goes, bethought him thnt it would be well to
order some of his ships to call at Port Arthur in the
course of their cruise round the Chinese littoral.
This was well within the authoritv of the Admiral in
command, nor did he in the least imagine when the
ships were ordered to take up their station for a time
at Port Arthur that any political significance would
be attached to their arrival in the port. So little im-
portance did he attach to the matter that he made no
report on the subject, and neitlier asked, sought, nor
received permission from the Government at home.
He sent the ships to Port Arthur as he had previously
sent ships to Kiao-Chau, and :.3 he would send them
to any other port where he could find safe anchorage.
Such, at least, is the positive declaration of the British
Government, which we, of course, implicitly believe.
It can easily be imagined with what feelings the news
of tlio arrival of Britisli wnrsliips at Port Arthur was

It.

130

li'i: UNITI.J h'i'ATt^i^ '>F ELRni'E

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recehed in St. Petor slnirg. The intelligence dis-
mayed the non-annexationists and filled the annexa-
tionists with joy. " "VVe told you so!" the latter
cried exultingly, and immediately proceeded first to
press their suspicions on the mandarins at Pekin, and
then nt St. Petersburg to point triumphantly to
the presence of the ships as proof positive of our bad
faith.

Our Ambassador, Sir Nicholas O'Conor, who was
then, with the best intentions in the w^orld, working
hand-and-glove with the non-annexationist section,
anxiously inquired as to why the ships were sent there,
and, apparently as one result of his telegrams acquaint-
irg the Government with the exaggerated importance
attached to the presence of these vessels, he received
and transmitted to the Russian Government assurances
as to the non-political nature of the visit of the ships,
which may be found in rlio Blue Book. Meantime,
the ships having stayed their time, sailed away, but
ilie nu'-^chief which they had dc>ne lived after them.
Still, lUi removal of the ships gave fresh heart to the
non-annexationists, who renewed the battle; and they
might have won the day, had it not been for the fatal
move of Sir Claude J\rae Donald, our Ambassador in
Pekin — a move which no attempt has ever been made
to reconcile with ordinary good faith. The only ex-
cuse that is possible is almost inconceivable. It is
difficult to imagine that the British Ambassador at
Pekin was unaware of the fact that ]\[r. Balfour had
publicly declared that the British Government en-

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1 ' I

THE CHINESE PUZZLE

181

tircly approved of Iviissia having an ice-free port in
the Pacific. Yet, except on that hypothesis, it is dif-
ncnlt to acquit the J -ri'.ish Ambassador of an act of
deliberate treachery infinitely worse than the worst
that could be charged against Count Muravieif.

For what did he do? First. .10 sooner did he find
that the Chinese Government was in difficulty about
the negotiation of a loan, than he went to the man-
darins at Pekin and offered to secure them a Britisli
loan on various conditions, one of which was that
Talienwan (which, he was careful to explain in his
telegram home, was the only ice-free port) should be
made into a treaty port. The mandavins at once ob-
jected that Russia would never agree to this; but Sir
Claude MacDonald insisted. " Why should the Rus-
sians object," he asked, " unless they had designs
which, if they objected to his proposal, would then be
unmasked? " But there was no need for unmasking
their designs. Their designs, if one may call them
so, were frankly avowed and had been publicly en-
dorsed and approved by Mr. Balfour, the Leader of
the House of Commons and First Lord of the Treas-
ury. The Russians regarded their claim to have
Talienwan as a matter that had passed beyond the
pale of controversy. It had been virtually made over
to them, whenever they wanted it, l)y Mr, Balfour on
behalf of the British Government; and yet, with this
assurance fresh in their mind^, tluy were suddenly
confronted with the spectacle ^f the Britisli Ambas-
sador at Pekin endeavoring by tlie promise of a British

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THE UXITED BTATEfi OF EUROPE

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loan to bribe the Chinese Government into cheating
them out of the indispensable port.

When this became known in St. Petersburg, the
annexationists triumphed all along the line. Who
could trust the English after that? Count Muravieff
also, being anxious, it was said, to immortalize his
family by bringing Russia to Port Arthur, as another
Muravieff had brouglit Russia to the Amur, is said to
liave worked upon the Chinese by assurances more
emphatic than accurate to induce them to request the
Russians to occupy Port Arthur lest it should be
seized by the English. The Chinese refused, but in
such a way as to give Muravieff a colorable pretext for
representing to the Emperor that the Chinese implored
him to take Port Arthur-. After this last cowp the
fate of Port Arthur was sealed.

I liave entered at some length into this question, be-
cau 8 it bears directly on the charge which is brought
against Russia of having deceived us in the course of
these negotiations. When the fate of Port Arthur
was still in the balance, questions were asked at St.
Petersburg as to the presence of Russian ships of war
at the port, and we were assured that they were only
there for winter quarters. This statement is con-
stantly brouglit forward as a proof of Russian decep-
tion. But the fact is that if we had not thrown the
wdiole game into the hands of the annexationists, the
ships would only have been there for winter quarters,
and would have left Port Arthur in the spring. The
rampant Jingoism of certain sections of our press and

■1

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Who
iravieff
ize his
mother
said to
s luoie
lest the
iild be
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The
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THE CUIXESE PUZZLE

133

the bad faith of Sir CUiude MacDonakl rendered it
impossible for the non-annexationists to hold their
ground, so that what would in all probability have
been only a sojourn for the winter, was converted into
a definite occupation.

Then came the question whether or not Talienwan
should be a free port or an open port. There was a
misunderstandiug on the English side, which is ad-
mitted in the dispatches, owing to Lord Salisbury's
having mistaken the clear and definite statement made
by M. de Stael that tlie port would be "open " as eciuiv-
alent to its being '* free," V\n- that, however, the Rus-
sians are admittedly in no sense to blame. IJefore it
was leased to the Jiussians, Talienwan was not open to
trade. The inunediate result of leasing it to the Rus-
sians was to open it to trade, subject to the provisions
of the Treaty of Tientsin, by which the import duty
was fixed at a maximum of seven per cent. 1 Taring
gained this point, if therewith our Ministers had been
content, a great deal of trouble would have been
avoided. But unfortunately, from excessive zeal Sir
Nicholas O'Conor deemed it necessary to raise the fur-
ther question as to whether or not Port Arthur should
also be an open port. Xow from the public declara-
tions of Her ^Majesty's .\[inisters. Port Arthur cannot
be made a commercial port. It is essentially a mili-
tary and naval position, corresponding to the Spithead
ports and the Isle of Wight ; and satisfactory answers
haying been giyen as to Talienwan, which corresponds
to Southampton, there was neither sense nor reason

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THE IXITIJD i^TATES OF EUROPE

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in declaring tliat Tort Artlmr should also be declared
an open j)ort. Unfortunately, howoveiv instead of
pointing this out, assurances were given of the readi-
ness to make it open, which the llussians afterwards
took back. Instead of justifying this taking back of
their promise, which they could perfectly well have
done on the ground that Port Arthur, according to
Lord Salisbury himself, could not be made into a com-
mercial port of any kind, iMuravieff made statements
which, if not intended to nuslead, were, to say the
least, very unfortunately ])hrased. ^rom this mis-
understanding, of which T have heard many explana-
tions, none of which seem to me either conclusive f)r
satisfactory, there sprang a popular belief that the
Russians had wilfully deceived us, although what con-
ceivable advantage they could have derived from such
deception has never been clearly pointed out. The
disadvantage w^as obvious enough. Tlie ^Ministerial
papers, almost without an exception, fumed and
foamed and ])ublishcd day after day attack.^ upon the
Governinent to which at last Lord Salisb'irv yielded,
and ordered the occupation of Wei-IIai-^Vei. Thus
the third step was takc^n towards the partition of the
Chinese Empire.

The advantage to England of the occupation of
Wei-IIai-AVei still remains problematical. The dis-
advantages are obvious. To Germany it has been no
doubt a gain that we should have thrust ourselves into
a position which makes us partners with them in the
partition of [N'orthern China, partners who, however.

THE CniXESK PUZZLE

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are prcclndod Ly our own voluntary protostations from
attempting to derive any comniereial advantages from
the position. The (»nly defence that was made was
that it was necessary to advertise to Japan and the
otlier nations that we were not out of the running, and
tliat if (lerniany and liussia seized diincsc territory,
we also were willing and able to take a part in the same
aame. It is stated — I cannot sav with what authority
— that the balance of naval authority was distinctly
against taking Wei-irai-Wei, and up to the i)resent
fortunately there has been no expenditure to speak of
in the way of fortifying or garrisoning the jdace of
arms over which our tlag flies. Wei-ITai-AVei remains,
and it is sincerely to be hoped will long remain, a place
d'armes, as worthless for Imperial purposes as that
other place cVarmes in the Mediterranean, the filching
of which, nnder the cover of the Anglo-Turkish Con-
yention, is an indelible blot ni)on the good faith of
Great P)ritain.

The irritation prodnced by these various seizures of
Chinese territory can easily be imagined. The Ilus-
sians said little but did much — that is to say, they
fortified and garrisoned Port Arthur, and produced a
naval programme at the l)eginning of last year which,
if carried out, would entail the expenditure of twenty-
four millions sterling in six years in the building of
a great Pr.cific fleet. Of this twenty-four millions,
ten millions were allocated for the construction of ships
in their own dockyards, and in France, Germany and
the Ignited States. The remaining fourteen millions

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sterling, which are also to be spent before the end of
1905, have not yet been allocated, but it is part of
the programme officially announced at the beginning
of last year, which was prepared as the necessary and
natural corollary of the occupation of Port Arthur.

Througliout the whole of the discussions on the
Chinese question, no exception can be taken to either
the tone or the matter of the speeches of Lord Salis-
bury and Mr Balfour. Iso siich compliment, how-
ever, can be paid to the utterances of Sir Michael
Ilicks-Beach and Mr. Chamberlain. It was Sir
]\richael Ilicks-Beach who first spoke openly of main-
taining our positi(m, if necessary, by war. But his
indiscretion was thrown into the shade by the outburst
of Mr. Chamberlain, who in a famous, or infamous,
speech virtually called Russia a devil with whom it
was impossible to come to any understanding or to
come to any agreement. This was the famous " long-
spoon " speech, which had at least one good result. It
revolted even those who most sympathized with the
anti-Ilussian feeling, and brought down upon Mr.
(chamberlain reproofs which were all the worse to bear
because he knew them to be so well deserved.

The popular conception of Mr. Chamberlain is erro-
neous in many points, and in none so much as that
which paints him as a man of strong convictions and
of resolute purpose. Mr. Chamberlain in reality is
a creature of impulse. He is a man of strong feelings,
and when he feels strongly he speaks strongly. One
of his colleagues, wlien explaining and apologizing

THE CHINESE PUZZLE

187

for the '' long spoon " speech, maintained that it really
was an outburst of offended affection. ^Ir. Chamber-
lain, to do liiiu justice, has always been a great advo-
cate of a good understanding with Russia. At the
time when Mr. CJladstone seemed to be heading full
swim for war with Kussia over the Penjdeh affair in
1885, ]VIr. Chamberlain was almost, if not quite, alone
in the Cabinet in maintaining that war was neither
necessary nor expedient. " AVe are going to war all
round the world on a pin's point," he is said to have
remarked to Mr. Gladstone. No one was better
pleased than Mr. Chamberlain when the result proved
that war was not only unnecessary but impossible,
(lermany and Austria having informed the Sultan
that he was on no account to allow our fleet to pass the
Dardanelles and the Bosphorus; and the Ameer of
Afghanistan having informed Lord Dufferin at the
same time that he would not on any account allow
British troops to ip'di'A through Afghanistan to attack
the Russians in Central Asia. When Mr. Chamberlain
forswore his allegiance to Mr. Gladstone and went
over into the Tory camp, he carried with him not only
his thrall, Mr. Jesse Collings, and the whole Chamber-
lain clan, but he also carried among his impedimenta
his belief that an understanding with the Russians
was both possible and desirable. Tn Council he liad
always advocated the establishment of an understand-
ing with Russia, and hence when the negotiations
about Port Arthur came to their unfortunate ending,
he went off in a tangent in the opposite direction, and

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in an outburst of temper declared that we would need
a very long spoon if we were to sup with the Russians.
It was only " pretty Fanny's way," and thoroughly in
accordance with the methods and manners of the new
diplomacy, of which he is the patentee and sole pos-
sessor of author's rights. I suppose Mr. Chamberlain
would allege in self-defence, first, that he never ade-
quately realized the extent to which Sir Claude Mac-
Donald's attempt to convert Talienwan into a treaty
port was inevitabl}^ regarded by the Russians as a
scandalous breach of good faith on our part. The
significance of the fact that Talienwan was the only
ice-free port in that region through which Russia could
have access to the sea may have escaped him. lie fur-
ther has the characteristic John Bullish belief that
when you get mad the best thing to do is to swear at
large. It blows off steam and relieves internal pres-
sure to give your adversary a piece of your mind.
That may be all very well for the individual citizen;
but Mr. Chamberlain should never have forgotten that
he was a Minister of the Crown, and in that cppacity
was bound to reduce the exuberance of his natural
disposition within the limits of diplomatic propriety.

When matters were in this troublous state, a further
difficulty arose concerning the railway from Pekin to
!N"euchang. The Russians, whatever faults they may
have had, and whatever mistakes th«?y may have made
in the conduct of their diplomacy in the Far East, can
certainly not be accused of any reticence, reserve, or
dissimulation as to the objects of their policy. They

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THE CHIXESE PUZZLE

139

had, even before Port Arthur was taken, frankly
avowed their oSjection to see any other European
Power establish political influence in Manchuria.
They had further made arrangements with the Cldnese
Government which precluded them from making any
concessions giving political influence to any European
Power within what they considered to be the sphere
of their interest. The attempt made at Pckin in the
interest of the concessionnaires who are financed by
the Shanghai Bank, to obtain a concession for a rail-
way to Neuchang, brought our Government face to
face with the Tlussians. No sooner was it announced
that the concession was to be granted than the Russians
objected, the Chinese recoiled, and there was another
outburst on the part of the Russophobist Jingo party
against the interference of the Russian Government
with British enterprise. The Russians said little but
stood firm. The concession was inconsistent with the
agreement which the Chinese had previously con-
cluded with the Russians, and it had to be cancelled.
Thereupon there was great idulation in the Jingc
camp, and Lord Salisbury was abused in all the moods
and tenses for making another of the graceful con-
cessions which it was declared had made British policy
a by- word for weakness and imbecility. As a matter
of fact, Lord Salisbury could not help himself, for the
Chinese had merely promised us a concession under
pressure, which was incompatible with the agreement
into which they had previously entered with the Rus-
sian Government. Finally, after a good deal of angry

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altercation, the Russian objection was sustained. Brit-
ish money was to be used in the construction of the
railway, but provision was taken to prevent the em-
ployment of British capital being used s the lever for
the establishment of a British ini'perium in imperio
in Northern China.

While the situation was in this strained state, mat-
ters were made worse by various stories as to the con-
cession of a railway running from Pekin southwards
towards the Yang-tse-kiang valley which was financed
by the Russo-Chinese Bank, and was held to be the
mere stalking-horse for the extension of Russian polit-
ical authority into a region which we had marked out
for ourselves.

I should have mentioned before that in the struggle
between Russian and British diplomacy at Pekin, Eng-
land had gained an extension of territory on the main-
land opposite Hong Kong, and also had secured con-
cessions for the opening of the Yang-tse-kiang valley
to foreign vessels, which, in the opinion of those best
competent to judge, counterbalanced a hundred-fold
all the commercial advantages the Russians were likely
to gain for twenty years to come in Manchuria.

The British Government had also secured the still
more important concession which went further towards
creating an imperium in imperio in the Chinese Em-
pire than all the other concessions put together. For
a long time past the customs of the Chinese Empire
have been imder the control of Sir Robert Hart, who
was Inspector-General of Customs. Sir Robert Hart's

THE CHINESE PUZZLE

141

appointment, however, was purely personal. His sta-
tus last year was changed l>y the arrangement arrived
at between Great Britain and China, which not only
secured Sir Robert Hart's position, but established the
principle that his successor must be an Englishman, as
long as the trade of Great Britain in China exceeded
that of any of her competitors. All these advantages,
however, seemed to the excited assailants of Lord Salis-
bury as mere dust in the balance compared with the
occupation of Port Arthur by Russia and the pruning
of the concession of the Neuchang railway.

Hitherto it had been the established custom of the
British Foreign Office not to lend the diplomatic sup-
port of Great Britain to concession-hunters in China
or elsewhere. It was Prince Bismarck who first be-
gan the i)ractice of using his Ambassadors as commer-
cial travellers, and of employing the resources of Im-
perial diplomacy in order to deflect orders to German
firms. After struggling for some time against the
clamor of the IVIinisterial press the Government gave
way, and announced that they would support against
Russia the Chinese Government's grant of any con-
cession to a British subject. Mr. Gladstone called the
Anglo-Turkish Treaty of 1878 "an insane conven-
tion," but it was sanity itself compared w4th an under-
taking which practically left it in the power of the
Chinese Government to force us into a war with Rus-
sia whenever it suited the policy of the mandarins to
embroil her two great European neighbors. When
things reached this pass, I thought it was about time

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that T recalled the suggestion made hy tlie late Em
peror, and that I should proceed to Russia for the pur-
pose of ascertaining, if possible, what the Russian
Government was really driving at, and whether there
was any possibility of clearing up misunderstandings
and of ascertaining the real drift of events in the Far
East.

Before 1 started, however, matters began to mend,
and negotiations — the " long spoon " notwithstanding
— were begun between the Russian and the British
Goverimients, the basis of which was the delimitation
of their respective spheres of interest. The under-
standing suggested by the Russian Foreign Office, and
favorablv considered bv Great Britain, was that Britain
should regard the province of Manchuria as lying en-
tirely within the Russian sphere of interest, subject to
the understanding that Talienwan was to be an open
port, that no preferential duties were to be charged,
and that all goods were to be admitted subject only to
the maximum duties laid down in the Treaty of Tien-
tsin. By this arrangement the door of Talienwan
would be opened as wide as that of any other treaty
port in the world ; British capital could be as fairly in-
vested in Manchuria as in any other part of the Chinese
Empire, but no concessions carrying political influence
were to be sought by us in Manchuria. In return for
this concession the Russians suggested that the valley
of the Yang-tse-kiang should be regarded as the Brit-
ish sphere of interest; and that they on their part would
abstain from pushing for any concessions carrying

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TUE vniXESE PUZZLE

148

political influence in the Yang-l^^e-kiang valley. The
valley of the Yellow Iliver, which lies between Man-
churia and the Yang-tse-kiang, was to be a happy
hunting-ground for the concessionnaires of both Em-
pires — a kind of intermediate buifer State or sphere of
interest, which would be common to both Empires.
The matter did not go beyond diplomatic conversa-
tions, in which the proposals put forward by the Rus-
sians were not unfavorably considered by the British
Government.

Matters were in this state when, to the immense
astonishment of every one, the Tsar's Rescript ap-
peared, likt a bolt from the blue sky. It was so
utterly imexpected that, when one distinguished Rus-
sian diplomatist was told by a friend what he had read
in the papers, he put it down to the crass stupidity of
his acquaintance, who, he thought, had probably
mixed up some proposal for the disarmament of Cre-
tan insurgents with a general proposal for an arrest of
armaments. lie Avas by no means alone in the amaze-
ment which the Emperor's sudden initiative created
throughout the ranks of diplomacy, both Russian and
foreign.

The publication of the Rescript gave at once a new
objective to my tour. I had first merely intended to
make a short trip to St. Petersburg, and to come back
at once. But the Emperor by this time had gone to
Livadia. It was the accident of his being in the
Crimea that first suggested to me the idea of making
the tour of Europe. I had never been further south

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TUE UNITED (STATES OF EUROPE

than Toula in Russia. I had never visited either the
Balkan Peninsula or Austria-Hungary. I therefore
decided to extend and enlarge my original design, and
instead of merely going to see the Emperor, I pro-
jected the tour round Europe which I subsequently
carried out. Some of the first impressions of this run
through the future Continental Commonwealth are
embodied in the subsequent chapters.

CHAPTER III

niSPANIOLIZATION

The most conspicuous event in the history of 1898
was imdoiibtedly the sudden apparition of the United
States on the field of world politics. It had long been
foreseen as inevitable, but when the moment struck,
the unanimity and enthusiasm v/itli which the whole
American nation rushed its Government into war
startled the onlookers, especially those who had paid
little attention to the development of American Im-
perialism. It is tolerably safe to say that, outside
Great Britain, there were very few persons who were
in the least degree prepared for the outburst of 1898;
and even in Great Britain there were many who were
very much taken by surprise. The English, however,
had one great advantage which enabled them to under-
stand and appreciate the nature of the American move-
ment. This was not so much community of language
as the instinct of race. After all, what had happened
in the United States wf^s nothing but what had, time
and again, happened in Great Britain. "VVe had, in-
deed, led the way in all such enterprises for more than
a generation past. !N^o Englishman who was in the
least degree informed as to the nature of Spanish mis-
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government in Cuba will deny that, had the policy of
the United States been directed by the statesmen of
Downing Street, and had the American people been
subject to the impulses which sway the British public,
the Spanish flag would long ago have disappeared
from the American Continent.

Another great advantage which enabled our people
to understand the action of America was the close
analogy which existed between the American move-
ment for the liberation of Cuba and the great agita-
tions which from time to time had swept over this
country in favor of the liberation of Christian prov-
inces from the Sultan. English policy has occasion-
ally been revolutionized, and has frequently been
deflected by a great humanitarian impulse beating pas-
sionately in the hearts of the common people. On
the Continent of Europe such experiences are either
unknown or are extremely rare. Ilencc^ when the
United States declared war against Spain, it was only
in England that the sincerity, the genuineness of the
popular feeling found general recognition. Every-
where else it was believed that the humanitarian
professions which figured so conspicuously in the dip-
lomatic and public declarations of the American
Government were mere pretexts put forward to mask
a long meditated design upon the possessions of a
neighbor. The English, who have been accustomed
to similar misrepresentations on the part of Continen-
tal nations, found themselves in lively sympathy with
their American kinsfolk, not merely because of what

HISPANJOLIZATION

147

of a

they were doing, but because of the way in which they
were misjudged l3y their critics.

But wliilc this was true concerning the outbreak of
the war, even the English were not a little amazed at
the sudden development of American ambitions. It
is true, no doubt, that the completeness and dramatic
character of the American successes at ^Eanila and at
Santiago were sufficient to elate a less excitable people
than the Americans. But that the American Kcpub-
lic, which for a century had been constantly held up
before our eyes as a type of the staid, serious, business-
like commonwealth, should suddenly have passed
under the sway of Imperial ambitions, would not have
been credited in England any more than it would have
been in the United States itself before Dewey de-
stroyed the Spanish fleet at Manila. It is, no doubt,
true that the motives which led the Americans to in-
sist upon the cession of the Philippines were largely
humanitarian, and sprang in great measure from a con-
ception of Imperial duty which was far removed from
anything that could be described as Jingoism. The
sentiment of the obligations which they owed to the
islanders, whose government they had destroyed; the
sense of supreme power, carrying with it obligations
which must be fulfilled — even though they exposed
the Commonwealth to misrepresentation and imposed
upon the United States a burden mucli more onerous
than profitable- -undoubtedly counted for much more
than censorious critics are willing to admit. At the
same time it was impossible to deny tbut below all the

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lofty motives which impelled many Americans to take
up their cross and accept the responsibility of civiliz-
ing the Philippines, there was a strong turbid flood of
masterful ambition. The Americans had felt their
strength for the first time beyond the seas. They had
made their debut in the arena of world politics. They
had gained immediate and universal recognition as a
world Power — as they believed, the greatest of the
world Powers. They had conquered ; why should they
not annex? Annexation was the fashion of the hour.
All the other Powers had established outposts on the
Asiatic Continent. It was not for the United States
to shrink appalled from assuming a burden which
much weaker states had borne with pride for genera-
tion after generation. The pride of victory, the flush
of conquest, the determination to assert thems'^lves in
the world — in short all the motives with which we are,
alas! only too familiar, asserted themselves imperi-
ously across the Atlantic, and combined with much
more exalted sentiments in impressing upon the Old
World the sense of the sudden advent of a new com-
petitor for empire, richer than any of those which had
already engaged in the partitioning of the world, and
which was likely to bring to the great international
game a spirit of audacity, not to say of recklessness,
far greater tlian their own. We are even now much
too near such a great world-event adequately to realize
its importance.

It was not only the advent of a new and formi-
dable factor which must henceforth be reckoned with

HISPANIOLIZATION

149

in the world problem that startled and bewildered
Europe. There came along with it a curious sense
of the instability of things. The older nations felt
very much as the inhabitants in a region which for
the first time has been swayed by an earthquake.
Down to the day when Dewey destroyed the Spanish
fleet at Manila, nothing seemed so absolutely fixed and
stable in a mutable world as the determination of the
United States not to fly their flag on any territory but
their own. The traditional policy of the United
States, the declarations of their statesmen, the appar-
ently unanimous conviction of the people, all com-
bined to make the rest of the world believe that what-
ever might happen within the American Continent,
they were quite safe in calcuhiting that, excepting be-
tween the Pacific and the Atlantic, the United States
need not be reckoned with. The dav after the destrnc-
tion of the fleet at Manila the whole scene changed as
if by magic. The traditional policy, the declarations
of statesmen, nay more, even the convictions of the
people themselves, seemed to be totally transformed.
The mariners who landed upon the back of the kraken,
and imagined that they were on terra firm a, were not
more astonished when the huge monster suddenly dived
beneath the sea, than was mankind when the United
States asserted their determination to keep wliat the
victory of Dewey had placed within their grasp.

Simultaneously with the blazing apparition of
American Imperialism there was witnessed another
phenomenon, which in its way was equally disquieting.

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TUE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

Spain, down to the beginning of tlii<? year, had been
considered, not indeed as a great Power, but as a state
which was capable of holding its own within the lim-
ited area of its influence. The reputation of Spanish
statesmen, it is true, was not very high, but it was be-
lieved that they were at any rate sane — that at Madrid
there were Ministers who realized their responsibility,
and who would bring to the government of the country
the same forethought and care that is displayed by or-
dinary men in the ordinary affairs of life. The Span-
ish fleet, for instance, was believed to be no inadequate
opponent of the fleet of the United States. They had
behind them a great tradition. The quality of the
vessels was first class. Their armament was thought
to be even superior to that of the American ships. In
land forces they were overwhelmingly superior in
number and equipment, in discipline and in experi-
ence. The army in Cuba had been acclimatized by
long campaigns waged against the insurgents. The
almost universal calculation was that Spain at least
could hold her own for a time, while in Cuba itself she
would make a long and arduous resistance. 1898,
however, showed that Spain had gone rotten at the
head. They had the ships, but their armament was
lacking. They had the sailors, but they were un-
trained in gunnery, and lacked the necessary experi-
ence in naval M'arfare. The advantages of material
w^re useless, and when they were put to the test they
went down like a row of ninepins before their
assailants.

HISPANIOLIZATION

151

Far more serious, however, than the failure of the
fleet was the evidence which the war afforded of the
lack of any serious thought or any practical common
sense on the part of the so-called statesmen of Madrid.
Imbecility is hardly too strong a term to use to de-
scribe the way in which the Spanish Government en-
countered the reverses which rained upon them in two
Continents. It was then discovered that Spain had
not only ceased to be a Power among the nations, but
that she was no longer capable of producing adminis-
trators who possessed either the nerve, the conscience,
or the morale necessary for the maintenance of the
national credit or the defence of the national interests.
There then came into use a word of which we are likely
to hear a good deal more in the years that are to come.
That term was " hispaniolization.^^ A decaying state,
when it reaches a certain point of what may be called
national putrefaction, is said to be " hispaniolized."
It marks an advanced stage in national decay.

Tlispani lization, indeed, is no new phenomenon,
but we have never seen it exhibited on so great a scale
in a nation which at one time had played the foremost
role in the drama of history. In the previous year
there had been afforded another example in a young
state of the same lack of serious purpose, the same
absence of common sense, the same reckless indiffer-
ence to the most simple and elementary facts of
government, which were subsequently displayed in
Madrid. The levity, the absurdity, the fantastic dis-
regard of the plainest duties which characterized the

153

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policy of Greece when she challenged war with Tur-
key, afforded only too close a parallel to the conduct
of Spain. In both countries were constitutional mon-
archies. In both the concession of representative
government had resulted in producing nothing more
worthy of respect than a scramble of office-seekers for
the spoils, and neither country in the hour of its mis-
fortune showed any capacity to produce a. strong and
capable administrator. Hence ensued, when the mo-
ment of trial came, a paralysis which brought both
states to the verge of ruin. Greece was saved by the
intervention of the Powers, which threw their shield
over the prostrate kingdom. Spain found no friends
in need, and had to consent reluctantly to the sacrifice
of almost all its possessions over sea. Financial dis-
aster accompanied military defeat, and nations every-
where realized more vividly than ever before that
states, like individuals, could go reeling down to the
grave v/ith exhausted vitality and a paralyzed brain.

At the same time that this tremendous world-drama
was being enacted in the presence of the whole world,
two of the greatest statesmen who had long towered
aloft as pillars in the international Commonwealth
wore remoA^ed by death. Mr. Gladstone was the first
to go; but he had hardly been laid to rest in the Abbey
before Germany had to lament the disappearance of
the great statesman whose iron hand had rebuilt the
fabric of German unity in the latter half of the nine-
teenth century. The nations which had been gov-
erned for nearly the lifetime of a generation by old.

f with Tur-
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fcional mon-
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of its mis-
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Kollertnnut\ Itialapest
DEZOS 8ZII,AOY

Oonzleth, BdJmtfixt
BARON IJANKKY

Kollenuuar, Budapest Strelisky, BuiUti)et<f

M. TTPZA MAURIS JOKAI

SOxME STATESMEN OF AUSTRIA-HUNGARY

ivr' .

nimrANIOLlZATION

153

, iiuJapfxt

, BudapeKf

experienced statesmen, found themselves in the hands
of comparative tyros. The thron 1 Russia was occu-
pied by an ahnost unknown young man. The desti-
nies of Germany were in the hands of a monarch whoso
restless energy and feverish ambition offered the
sharpest possible contrast to the traditional idea of
the stolid, phlegmatic and matter-of-fact nation over
which he ruled. In Austria-Hungary, the rivalry of
the various nationalities which make up that com-
posite empire-kingdom seemed to have escaped the con-
trol of the Government. Between Austria-Hungary
and chaos there existed but the barrier of a single life ;
nor was there either in Hungary or in Austria a single
statesman of European reputation. France was torn
by internal dissensions, the end of which no one could
foresee, i or a moment M. Hanotaux had seemed to
display some capacity to give permanence and con-
sistency to French foreign policy; but M. Hanotaux
disappeared, and a succession of ephemeral Ministries
once more showed that while the Third Republic pos-
sessed an infinite capacity for producing politicians
eager for portfolios, she showed no sign of any ability
to produce a directing class or a statesman with genius
for government.

In England the situation, although apparently more
stable, had many elements of anxiety, not to say of
danger. Foremost among these must be placed the
disappearance of the balance of the Constitution.
Hitherto the government of the British Empire had
always been conducted on the assumption that the

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party in power was confronted by an Opposition which
could be relied upon to act '"a check upon the Govern-
ment, and which was j ^ i^ed at any moment to take
office and form an administration composed of trained
statesmen with a well-defined political programme.
But of late years that security has disappeared. Lord
Salisbury was in power at the head of a large majority
almost entiiely free from the restraint and the control
which previous administrations had foimd in the ex-
istence of an Opposition. Whenever a Liberal Gov-
ernment is in power it has always to reckon with the
House of Lords, which is a permanently Conservative
body. Lord Salisbury was equally supreme both in
the House of Lords and in the House of Commons.
Confronting him in the House of Commons there was
only a disorganized and distracted remnant of a great
historical party, which had neither a leader to follow
nor a policy to recommend. As a natural and inevit-
able result. Ministers, freed from the usual restraints
of Governments and finding themselves confronted
by no organized Opposition, gave free scope to their
individual idiosyncrasies. Under the semblance of a
homogeneous Cabinet we were confronted with the
spectacle of a Prime Minister whose pacific tendency
was more or less openly countered by the current of
bellicose sentiment which found its leader in Mr.
Chamberlain. In the House of Commons party disci-
pline preserved the outward semblance of unity; but
in the press, especially in the newspapers which were
nominally Ministerialist, this hostile tendency found

HISPAyiOUZATION

155

vent in a series of unsparing criticisms which left little
or nothing to be said by the recognized chiefs of the
Liberal Opposition.

The situation, indeed, was one ^^''hich in some re-
spects bore an ominous resemblance to that which
existed when the Aberdeen Cabinet controlled the
destinies of England in the middle of the century.
Lord Aberdeen, although differing in many respects
from Lord Salisbury, nevertheless resembled him in
a strong predisposition against war and against jwlicies
which were likely to necessitate the adoption of a
course of warlike adventure. Mr. Chamberlain was
the Lord Palmerston of the situation. Both had the
same dominant characteristics — a swaggering deter-
mination to assert themselves without much regard
to the susceptibilities of their neighbors, and an un-
compromising readiness to adopt the last arguments
of kings when other arguments failed. If we were to
carry the parallel further we might find considerable
analogy between the position of Mr. Balfour in 1898
and that of Mr. Gladstone in 1854. Mr. Kinglake,
in a well-known passage, has explained how it was that
a Cabinet, whose Prime Minister was devoted to peace,
and whose chief pillar of strength in the House of
Commons was equally free from all imputation of
Chauvinism, nevertheless drifted fatally into war.
More than once in the course of the past year it seemed
as if the parallel would hold true, even to the last
bloody ultimate. Fortunately, so far, we have been
spared, but no one who looks back over the history of

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\ 'i ;

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the twelve months, and sees the alternate phases of
bluster and " bunkum," of graceful concessions and
prudent retreat which followed each other with almost
the regularity of the black and white squares on a
checker-board, can feel particularly proud of the ex-
periment of governing without an Opposition. On
the Opposition benches there was an utter and woful
lack of either initiative or resolution.

At the beginning of the year a great opportunity
was offered to the Liberals of adopting a line which,
as the result proved, would have commended itself
to the country, and would have obviated most of the
misfortunes which subsequently ensued. If they had
definitely followed the plan laid down by Lord Rose-
bery when he abandoned the leadership and insisted
that the time had come to call "Halt ! " in the extension
of the responsibilities, territorial and otherwise, of
Great Britain; and if they had steadily and resolutely
supported Lord Salisbury in his efforts to maintain a
rational and pacific policy m the Far East; — much that
is most to be regretted in the history of the year would
not have been written. But the instinct of the Oppo-
sition to oppose, even when it has neither an alterna-
tive policy nor an alternative Cabinet to place before
the country, was too strong for the adoption of a policy
which would at once have been patriotic and prudent.
The pacific section of the Ministry found themselves
overwhelmed by the pitiless hail of snarling criticisms
showered upon them by their own organs morning,
noon and night. The young men of the party, wax-

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niSPAMOLIZATlON

157

ing bold, and feeling that they could indulge with im-
punity in the license of irresponsible criticism, took a
delight in assailing their own side for want of energy
in defending liritish interests, which, being inter-
preted, meant going to war with Russia.

It is hardly possible to conceive of a more fatuous:
course than that which was taken bv Sir William liar-
court, who, while professedly desiring to maintain
peace, used the whole of his great forces of raillery
and sarcasm in ridiculing the Government and in hold-
ing them up to derision for their lack of vigor and the
inconsistency of their policy. One of his speeches
which dwells in the memory was one long invective,
every sentence of which tended directly in favor of
the party that was endeavoring to hound the Govern-
ment into war; and then bv way of salve to his con-
science he wound up by expressing a great desire for
a good understanding and friendly relations with
Russia.

A member of the Cabinet said to me on the eve of
the Southport election, " We shall lose Southport and
we shall lose all the by-elections because we won't go
to war Avitli Russia." I replied, " Not at all. You
would lose your by-elections much worse if you did go
to war with Russia. The fact is, you can govern this
country either on a peace tack or on a Jingo tack;
but you can't govern this country and win your by-
elections if you are Jingo one day and all for peace
the next." As Mr. Spender frequently remarked in
the Westminster Gazette, it is absolutely impossible to

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steer the British lion when two men are on his back,
one sticking his spurs rowel-deep into his flanks, while
the next moment his colleague is reining him in with
curb and bit.

During the whole of that trying time, when the
issues of peace and war were hanging in the balance,
and it seemed as if the peace section in the Cabinet
would be overborne by the clamors of their own sup-
porters. Lord Rosebery, who had flung up the Liberal
leadership rather than assent to what he regarded as
a dangerous drift towards Avar for the redress of the
wrongs of the Armenians, said never a word, but pre-
served a silence of the Sphinx on the rare occasions on
which he was visible to his countrymen. At last, when
things came to a head, and the Government, after
fumbling and floimdering, felt that it must placate its
supporters by seizing something somewhere, and Wei-
Ilai-Wei was occupied, the nation waited with anxiety
for some words of wisdom from the men of light and
leading who were responsible for the direction of the
affairs of the Opposition. But Lord Rosebery was as
dumb as a sheeted corpse, while the Liberal leaders in
the House of Commons decided with onlv one dis-
sentient that it w^ould be impolitic for them to adopt
the policy of a resolute opposition to such an extension
of our imperial responsibilities. So the party which
had been self-decapitated in order to prevent action
in the interest of humanity in the near East, contented
itself with the emission of barren and futile criticisms
upon the seizure of a great stronghold in the China

HI8PANI0LIZATI0N

159

seas. The clamor of concessionnaires, the angry de-
nunciations of men whose business had not prospered
as much as they hoped it might have done in the China
trade, found no strong and resolute voice upraised to
rebuke the heedless selfishness of financial greed. All
this, it must be confessed, has an ominous resemblance
to the beginnings of hispaniolization in our own
Empire.

Amid all this paralysis of self-effacement by a de-
moralized and disheartened Opposition, and the con-
flicting counsels and eddying policies of a Cabinet, in
which it seemed as if Mr. Chamberlain and Lord Salis-
bury were striving for mastery as Jacob and Esau
struggled together before birth, it was impossible not
to be impressed by a phenomenon which boded ill for
the peace of nations. That phenomenon was the
growth of the influence of the daily press. It may
sound paradoxical, but it is nevertheless true that side
by side with this alarming development of the power
of irresponsible journalism there has been as percept-
ible a diminution of the influence of the press as an
arena for the grave discussion of public questions.
The paradox is easily explicable when we reflect upon
the dual nature of a newspaper. The editor of a news-
paper is the showman of the universe. It is given to
him to display before the eyes of mankind the vast
moving panorama which is continually in progress
among mankind. You put your penny or your half-
penny into the slot, and you are permitted to survey
mankind from Cliina to Peru. The keeper of this

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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

ill:

journalistic slot-machine, as a condition of his exist-
ence, must make his living photographs move as viv-
idly, picturesquely and dramatically as possible before
the eyes of the public whom he wishes to attract, other-
wise they will go to somebody else's slot-machine, and
he ^vill be left penniless. Side by side with this func-
tion of showman, the editor combines the task of a
mentor, discussing, praising, condemning and judging
the actions of the characters which he displays in vivid
life upon his broadsheet. But men are but grown-up
children at the best; and no one who has had any
experience of the nursery can have forgotten the
impatience with which youngsters resent the morals
that all serious-minded writers used to consider
necessary to round off their tales. So inveterate is
the habit of skipping the moral that I well remember,
when I brought out an edition of ^Esop's Eables in
my " Books for tlie Bairns," I reversed the usual cus-
tom, and condensed the moral into a headline as the
only chance of its finding acceptance with the juvenile
public. Editors are driven to act very much in the
same manner. The showman gains more and more
upon the moralist, and the influence of the editor is
more felt in the headlines of his paper than in his
leading articles. The " scare-heads," to give them
the expressive name which they enjoy in the United
States, have gained; the leading articles have lost.
Hence the influence of the journalist which has devel-
oped of late is not the influence of the writer of lead-
ing articles, who at least is bound to state arguments

HISPANIOLIZATION

161

his
[em
ted
bst.
rel-
M-

in a more or less rational and consecutive fashion; but
it is the influence of journalism of the scare-head vari-
ety, which emi)loys all the resources of type for the
purpose of emphasizing and deepening the sensation
of the news of the day.

It is easy to see how this change lias come about.
Twenty or thirty years ago the majority of our people
did not read the daily newspapers, and those who did
were more or less educated. Since the Education Act
began to turn out millions of youtJis with sufficient
education to read the newspapers, a new public was
created unaccustomed to the serious discussion of polit-
ical affairs, but quite willing to be interested in the
endless sensations with which the progress of events is
constantly supplying the reader of newspapers. They
were willing to read the daily papers, but only on con-
dition that the news was short and spicy, and served
up in tit-bits with all the garnishing that effective sub-
editing could give it.

We see the ultimate outcome of this tendency in
the Daily Mail, a journal established within the last
two years by a man with a natural genius for journal-
ism, with limitless resources and restless energy. The
Daily Mail, a halfpenny morning paper, although the
youngest of the London dailies, has far eclipsed all its
older rivals in circulation. But its leading articles
are but snippets, and its political comments are often
little more than snap-shots. It owes its success to the
ability, energy, and resources with which its editor

has succeeded in making it tlie mirror in which you
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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

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can see in miniature the reflection of everything that
is going on in the world that is piquant, interesting,
or sensational. It is a many-colored quilt of piquant
paragraphs, all duly displayed with adequate scare-
heads, and the whole served up with a snippety-snap
smartness and up-to-dateness which abundantly ac-
counts for its phenomenal success. A journal that
has already achieved a circulation of half a mil-
lion '\ day is a fact whose significance cannot be
ignored as an index to the state of public feeling
or as an influence in the direction of public af-
fairs. The Daily Mail, in short, is a first-class half-
penny show, which has counted for a good deal in the
development of the impatient unrest of the London
public to which Ministers are always more or less
responsive.

I give this prominence to the Daily Mail for an-
other reason — because it so vividly illustrates the
ascendency which the scare-head editor has over the
responsible director of the responsible political opin-
ions of the paper. There are few men in London who
are so level-headed and so sane on the subject of China
and our relations with Russia as the editor of the Daily
Mail. Mr. Alfred Ilarmsworth is of the school of
Cecil Rhodes; and Cecil Rhodes has never even had
the mildest attack of Russophobia. Xo school in the
Empire has looked more dispassionat-ely and judicially
upon the progress of Russia than the Rhodesians, and
in this Mr. Ilarmsworth is a faithful disciple of his
master. Although these may be the convictions of

HI SPA XTOLIZA TION

163

ihj

Had

the editor, it unfortunately cannot be said that the
Daily MaiVs influence during the whole of the agi-
tated period was in favor of rationality or of the pur-
suance of a reasonable and sympathetic course in the
region where the interests of Ilussia and England were
supposed to be at stake. It is more piquant, more in-
teresting, and tends more to keep up the sensation and
interest of the show to issue day by day a paper bris-
tling ■\\'ith suggestions that the Russians were over-
reaching us and that Lord Salisbury was being bested;
and so things went on until we had the Mail almost
threatening the Government with disaster if it c' I not
seize Wei-IIai-Wei or some other vantage point in
China.

Another example may be cited of latter-day journal-
ism which in one respect is more apposite, but in an-
other does not illustrate quite so clearly the conflicting
influence of the editor and the writer of scare-heads.
The New York Journal, which a few years ago came
into the possession of Mr. W. R. Hearst, became last
year in many ways the most notable specimen of the
journalism which is now in the ascendanv. If you
wish to know the difference between America of thirty
years ago and America of to-day, you only need to
compare the New Yorh Trilmnc with the New York
Journal, and contrast Horace Greeley with W. R.
Hearst. The New York Journal is the supreme
example of successful journalism achieved by what
may be described as the persistent adoption of a policy
of spasmodic sensation. Mr. Hearst is a man com-

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THE V NIT ED STATED OF EUROPE

I 1

paratively young, a millionaire with great journalistic
flat re, and without any well-defined political prin-
ciples, who nevertheless was possessed by a vast ambi-
tion. At first the ambition seems to have taken no
other definite shape or form than a determination to
beat the New YorJc Worhl on its own ground. To
this end he poured out money like water, and by a
scries of Napoleonic coups at last established himself
in the premier position of American journalist. Dur-
ing the war, when he had a fresh edition nearly every
ten minutes, and filled up the intervals by painting
the latest bulletins on enormous boardings in front of
the office, the circulation is said to have reached 1,250,-
000 per day, a circulation without previous parallel in
the history of American journalism.

A distinguished statesman speaking of the New
YorJc Journal and its rival the New Yorh World,
expressed with great vehemence his conviction that
the " yellow journalism," as it is called, of New York
was " the most potent engine ever devised by the devil
for the demoralization of the democracy." Strong
as this declaration may appear, it is feeble compared
with the denunciations which are rained upon the
Journal by the Americans of the soberer and saner
variety, whom you find in diplomatic posts abroad or
meet in society. So vehement and violent are the
diatribes levelled against Mr. Hearst and the Journal
that I have occasionally found myself in danger of in-
curring the major excommunication because I have
occasionally acceded to his request to contribute spe-

HISPAXIOLIZATION

165

cial articles to his columns. In reality, the Journal
is by no means the leprous ra^ which its enemies repre-
sent it. It is a newspaper which appeals to the crowd,
^ot even the greatest of journalistic Barnums could
attract a million readers to his show without largely
pandering, if we may use so strong a word, to the
groundlings. It would be high treason in America
to use the phrase once familiar in English politics and
to describe the newspaper public as a " swinish multi-
tude; " but there is a greater element of truth in the
phrase than sticklers for the dignity of human nature
would always be disposed to admit. The public is not
so much swinish, as it is preoccupied with its own af-
fairs, and if its attention is to be attracted it needs to
be stimulated, to be shocked as by a perpetual succes-
sion of electric thrills. All newspapers recognize this
more or less, but Mr. Hearst last year was the supreme
practitioner of the art. To get up a sensation, to keep
it going, and before it has time to be played out to get
up another sensation, and yet another, in endless suc-
cession — with that whole art and mystery of latter-day
journalism he was familiar to his finger-tips. But it
would be a great mistake to regard these showman arts
by which the crowd is attracted to the fair as repre-
senting the whole or even the greater part of the phe-
nomenal position which Mr. Hearst attained. For
some time the Journal swung to and fro, apparently
\vithout either chart, compass, or steering directions;
but within the last year it aspired to be much more
than the mere sounding-board of the " cackle of the

16G

THE IXITED HTATEti Of EUROPE

h i

bourg," or the journalistic cinematograph of the events
of the world's history.

More than any other man in the United States, Mr.
Hearst was responsible for the war with Spain. As
I>o constantly avowed in his leading columns, while
other newspapers were content to try to chronicle his-
tory, it was the boast of the Journal to make it; and
ho made it with a vengeance. Whatever we may
think as to the wisdom or unwisdom of the course
which the Journal has advocated, no one can deny
that from first to last it preached what may be called
the expansionist doct.'ine with a vehemence, an energy,
an ability, and a persistency which could not be ex-
celled. Kesponsible American statesmen will tell you
that they never read the Journal^ that it is a paper
that is never seen in any respectable house, and that
it is a great mistake to pay any attention to wdiat they
call its " ravings.''

But to all this I have only to make the same reply
that Prince Bismarck made to a British Ambassador,
to whom he had complained about some articles in the
Pall Mall Gazette. '' T\ie Pall Mall Gazette,'' said the
Ambassador impatiently, " is in no sense a Ministerial
organ." " I^o," said Bismarck, "perhaps not; but
whatever the Pall Mall Gazette says to-day, Ministers
do to-morrow." And it may safely be said that if
any one wished to form a correct estimate of the prob-
able drift of American policy during the whole of last
year, he would have found a much safer guide in the
leading columns of the Journal than in the avowed

HISPAMOLIZA TION

167

intentions and genuine convictions of President
McKinley and his Cabinet.

]N^or is it only in the English-speaking countries that
we find the influence of the latter-day journalist exert-
ing more and more a dominant influence in the direc-
tion of the a^airs of nations. There is only one other
paper in the world which can challenge primacy, in
point of view of circulation, with the New York
Journal. That is the Petit Journal of France. The
Petit Journal is a creation largely of the publishing
genius of Marinoni. It counts its daily circulation by
the million, and there is no nook or corner of France
into which it does not penetrate. It has many good
qualities, and, like both the Daily Mail and the Neiv
York Journal, it is conspicuously free from any ap-
peal to the great goddess Lubricity, whose modern
Paphos is Paris. But of all engines for exciting and
intensifying national hatred and envenoming the feel-
ings of class against class, it would be difficult to find
anvthincf worse than the Petit Journal. No accusa-
tion against England is too absurd not to be welcomed
in its columns, and no invective against the friends of
Dreyfus can be too savage for the editorial taste. It
goes forth day by day with its million voices into all
the villages and hamlets of France, engendering
hatred and stirring up strife.

This perhaps is a natural and an inevitable result
of the extension of the journalistic suffrage to great
masses of the people to whom you can only appeal if
you print in very large capitals, and whose attention

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Tin J CM TED IS TATE >^ OF El Hi) I' E

'^'i

if ■ 1

you can only coniniand by u [jcrpetiial prodding with
a very sharp pen. The okl readers, the minority, may
still read their papers, but they are no longer in the
exclusive possession of the field. Their judgment is
overborne; their voice is silenced by the nmrmur
which rises from the great crowd at the show, which
when it is tickled laughs, and when it is provoked roars
from a million throats. This, it may be said, is only
democracy, but it is democracy articulate. It is a
partial return under modern conditions to the ancient
practice in which the affairs of a state were decided
by the whole people assembled together in a mass meet-
ing. The modern nation is little better than a huge
mass meeting, in which the voice of the scare-head
editor alone has stridency sufficient to carry to the
vero-e of the crowd. Ilis voice is never still. It
sounds from a vantage like that of the muezzin's tower,
high above the city's din, when it cries; but not like
the simple Mahometan, "To prayers, to prayers!
There is no God but CJod, and Mahomet is the prophet
of God," — rather it cries aloud to the barbaric in-
stinct of self-aggrandizement, self-assertion, self-glori-
fication. '' There is no people so great as the Ameri-
can people," cries the Journal from its million issues,
" no people so great, so glorious, so good, so altogether
fashioned in the image of God." And so in similar
fashion our latter-day journalists instead of acting as
mentors, accept the role of flatterers, and diligently
fan the flames of national egotism and imperial ambi-
tion. It is, perhaps, too much to expect a journalist

ling with

rity, may

cr in the

gniont is

niurnmr

w, which

kcd roars

I, is only

It is a

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' decided

ass nieet-

1 a huge

are-head

Y to the

till. It

's tower,

not like

prayers !

prophet

aric in-

f-glori-

Ameri-

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ogether

similar

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rnalist

yadiu: I'urif
M. DIUMONT
Kditor of tlic '• J.il)n' raiolc "

1
1

Iffl

"''•'i ,

''I

(itfsc/itl, rariii
M. I'I!KSS|;nsE
Foreign Editor of tiic •' Temps "

Santony, Paris

M. IJOrilEKOUT

Editor of " L"Iiitriiii!<i''oaiit "

Pirou, Paris
M. GF.OnOKS CI.KMKNi KAl'
Editor of •• L'Aurori'"

SOME FHKNCH EDITORS

I '

■{

^hi

UlSrAMOLIZATION

160

who dopends for hi.s oxistcncc upon the crowds which
ho can attract througli \n^ liallpcnny peep-show, to
don the mantle of a proi)ht't and to risk stoning in the
market-place for speaking- stern hut unpalatahle truths
in the ears of his countrvnieu; hut the fact that the
temptation to flatter the ])rejudices and minister to the
passions of the crowd is almost irresistible increases
rather than diminishes the danger of the position.

This phenomenon is one of the most conspicuous
and univei'sally recognized perils which threaten the
maintenance of peace. It is no longer in the cabinets
of monarchs or in the closets of despots that we must
seek for the greatest i)eril which threatens the tran-
quillity of the world. The despot, especially if he be
hereditary, is saddled with an ever-present sense of
responsibility. lie is trained for his task from his
childhood, and he is chained to his throne by obliga-
tions from which he cannot divest himself. But the
irresponsible editor, who flings firebrands all day long
amid the combustibles of national passion, lives only
for the day, and has no restraint either of law or
of custom placed upon his reckless incentives to
war.

I did not meet a single responsible man in the course
of my tour through Europe, whether he might be jour-
nalist or statesman, diplomatist or sovereign, who did
not frankly admit that the unbridled license of the
press, and the interest which it had in promoting situ-
ations that create sensation, constituted the most
alarming and serious danger against which ii behoved

170

THE VXiTED STATES OF EUROPE

statesmen to provide some barrier if the peace were to
be maintained.

A well-known journalist in Paris to whom I had
made some such observation as this, exclaimed: "Noth-
ing could be more true. There are men in Paris at
this moment who, in order to sell ten more copies of
their paper to-night, would not hesitate to make the
whole planet swim with human blood."

It is easier to point to the evil than to indicate the
remedy, but one or two observations are forcing them-
selves with increasing pressure upon the attention of
responsible men. The liberty of the press is one of
the most cherished palladia of human freedom. Eng-
land is the home of such liberty, but in England the
law is prompt to punish any attempt on the part of
the press to express an opinion upon any question when
once it has come before the attention of the courts.
Is it too much to hope that when the United States of
Europe comes more visibly into shape as a state organ-
ism, a similar restraint may be laid upon newspapers
in the discussion of international questions when they
are lodged for settlement before an international
tribunal ?

In this connection I may be pardoned for recalling
an incident in my own experience. Some years ago,
Jabez Balfour, the founder of the Liberator Building
Society, failed, and involved in his downfall the ruin
of thousands of the most deserving and most unfor-
tunate of British investors. Instead of waiting to
answer before the tribunals of his country for the

HI8PAXI0LIZA riON

171

gigantic system of embezzlement and fraud by which
he had plundered the widow and orphan in a thousand
homes, he bolted from the country and took refuge in
the Argentine Kepublic. ]\Iuch diplomatic represen-
tation was necessary and no small expense was in-
curred before his extradition was agreed to, and he
was handed over to the officers of the law, who brought
him back to answer for his crimes in the dock at New-
gate. In chronicling the fact of his being brouglit
back to justice in my monthly review of events, under
the heading of " The Progress of the World," I re-
marked tliat the said Balfoui" was a rare rogue, and
added that we should soon hear no more of him. That
he was a rare rogue no one could deny. That we did
hear no more of him was a prophecy literally fulfilled,
because within a very few weeks he was consigned to
a felon's cell, where he still reiiiains in durance vile.
^Nevertheless for making that perfectly obvious remark
concerning a man who had set our laws at defiance
and was being brought back by the strong hand of the
law to undergo his trial on a criminal charge, T was
haled up before Her Majesty's Judges, severely re-
proved and fined £100 and costs in order to teach me
the limits of the liberties of the press in commenting
upon affairs which are still siih jvdice.

Against the justice of that verdict, and the sound-
ness of the principle upon which the law was enforced,
not one protest was raised in the press, nor do I make
any complaint on my own account. It was no doubt
a personal hardship, but the principle was worth main-

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1 N

taining at the cost of such individual inconvenience.
But if, instead of hazarding a passing observation as
to a criminal not yet tried, who had virtually admitted
his guilt by fleeing from the jurisdiction t;f the Courts,
I had strained every resource of passion and of rhet-
oric in order to inflame public opinion on a question
involving peace or war which was being handled by
the Foreign Offices of two countries — if I had suc-
ceeded in rousing popular passion to such an extent
that it was impossible for the still, small voice of rea-
son to be heard, and if, as a result, I had succeeded in
hounding my country into a terrible war, I should no
doubt have been held answerable before the judgment-
seat of the Almighty, but there exists no human power
and no judicial authority on this planet that would
have called me to account.

The contrast between the excessive severitv with
which the law guards the impartiality and the serenity
of the judicial bench in cases involving the liberty and
property of private citizens, and the indifference which
is displayed to passionate invectives avowedly directed
against the dispassionate consideration of international
disputes, can only be regarded as a recklessness too
great to have been incurred deliberately by any sane
people, and which, therefore, will sooner or later have
to be corrected when the attention of mankind has
been turned to this omission in the panoply of civili-
zation.

PART III

THE jyOETIIWESTERN STATES

CHAPTER I

BELGIUM

Before eveu I had landed on the Continent a catas-
trophe that overwhelmed Cervera's fleet on the Cuban
coast was vividly recalled to the mind by the associa-
tions of the narrow seas through which the Ostend
steamer ploughed its way. The very wind was still,
the unquiet seas were smooth, and overhead the silent
stars looked down from a cloudless sky. But along
that low-lying coast, where glimmered here and there
the sentinel lights, there swept three hundred years
ago, in bloody confusion and smoking ruin, the wreck
of the Armada of Spain.

I had not been twelve hours in Brussels before I
found myself in the Chapel Boyal, attending the re-
quiem mass for the hapless Empress of Austria. All
the Diplomatic Corps attended in full dress, Protestant
and Catholic, Christian and ^loslem alike testifying
in formal courtly fashion, as the solemn music wailed
through the crowded church, the common sorrow of

h '

174

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

the world for the Imperial victim. But even there
the memory of the Avar obtruded. For among the
throng of gorgeous uniforms two figures stood con-
spicuous by the sombre plainness of their attire.

The American ^linister, of course, wore his usual
plain clothes. But matching him, to the no small
astonishment of the Diplomatic Corps, stood the Span-
ish Minister in undress. Why, no one knew. Spain,
we knew, had lost her colonies and her fleets, but she
surely had a uniform left.

Leaving the church, I strolled down to the most
famous monument in the city, the famous square,
sacred to the memory of Counts Egmont and Horn,
the patriot victims of the Duke of Alva, the Weyler
of his day. Everywhere in the Low Countries you
stumble upon traces of the sanguinary flood-tide of
Spanish conquest, of the heroic sacrifices by which
these lands were redeemed for civilization and human-
ity in the days bygone. N'owhere could I more fit-
tingly begin my mission of inquiry as to what the Old
World thought of the New America, than in the thriv-
ing, industrious commonwealth which rose from the
ashes of the Alva's vengeance.

Belgium is not one of the Great Powers, but the
little kingdoux is a microcosm of Europe. Her inter-
national position, her close proximity to and intimate
relation with France and Germany, her traditional
intimacy with England, the recent and astonishing
development of her industrial enterprise in Russia,
make her a vantage point from which the European

BELGIUM

175

movement of opinion can bo stndied more conven-
iently and advantageously than almost any other land.
But from the point of view of my American mission
to ascertain what the Old World thinks of the latest
new departure of the New World — that world which,
ever since it was discovered by Columbus, has been
an increasing source of astonishment to Europe — there
was still another reason for making Belgium the start-
ing point of a European tour of interrogation. The
parallel between Belgium and the United States is
curiously close. Both countries owe their political
existence to a successful revolution. Although one is
monarchical and the other Republican, both are alike
blessed with a constitution which has its imperishable
bases on the principles of the sovereignty of the people,
the liberty of the press, and the liberty and equality
of all religions. Both countries at their foundations
abjured all ambition of foreign conquest. Each pro-
fessed a resolute determination to cultivate its own
garden without meddling with the lands beyond its
borders. Both are industrious, prosperous, peaceful
and contented, the envy of their neighbors and an
example for the world. If the United States had no
army, Belgium had no fleet.

Nevertheless Belgium, or rather the ruler of Bel-
gium, succumbed even sooner than the United States
to the fascination of over-sea dominion. While
Americans are still hesitating whether or not to make
two bites of the Philippine cherry, Belgium has,
within the last dozen years, built up for herself a

17G

TUE UMTED >STATEt^ OF EUROPE

tropical Empire in Africa almost eiglity times her own
area. She is dreaming of concessions in China, she is
making immense investments in Russia. Everywhere
she is looking over the pale of her own little garden
for fresh fields for the investment of her super-
abundant capital and for the exercise of her exuberant
energy. Belgium's experience, therefore, enables Bel-
gians to form a sympathetic and intelligent judgment
concerning the new departure in America.

I spent some days in Brussels, during which I had
an opportunity of forming a tolerably comprehensive
conception of Belgian opinion on the subject. There
is no feeling of alarm or antipathy in Belgium to
America's expansion, either in the West Indies or in
the Philippines. Th y criticize it impartially, feeling
that it does not concern them. But they protest
against any parallel being drawn between the found-
ing of the Empire of the Congo and the acquisition of
the Philippines. Belgium, the King protests emphatic-
ally, is so small, so crowded a country — it has a popula-
tion of G, 000,000 on the area of 11,300 square miles
- -that if he did not look out for fresh fields and pas-
tures new his flock would ere long be compelled to eat
each other.

The King of the Belgians, wdio, if he had but a
wider scope for the exercise of his abilities, might have
achieved a foremost position in the history of our
times, is the founder of the Congo State. His point
of view is that it is the very smallness of the Belgian
kingdom wdiich justifies the policy of expansion. As

''I

s her own
ina, she is
erywhere
le garden
er siiper-
3xul)erant
ahles Bel-
judgment

ich I had
irehensive
t. There
^Igium to
dies or in
[y, feeling
y protest
he found-
lisition of
emphatic-
a popiila-
lare miles
and pas-
led to eat

lad but a
iglit have
y of our
His point
3 Belgian
iion. As

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LEOPOLD, KIN(i OK Till': I'.KI.CIAXS

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Giinther. /Irtixscls
THK ( KOWX I'HINCK OF llKLCiH M

THE (iUEKN OK HHLOHM

BELGIUM

177

he wrote in 1890, when lie made the will leaving the
Congo to the Belgian Government — a gift not even
yet accepted —

I have never ceased calling the attention of my fellow
countrymen to the necessity of looking towards the countries
over the sea. History teaches us that it is the moral and
material interest of countries with a restricted territory to
extend beyond their narrow frontiers. Greece founded on
the Mediterranean opulent cities, the home of arts and civ-
ilization: Venice later on established her grandeur by the
development of her maritime and commercial relations, no
less than by her political successes. The Netherlands possess
in the Indies thirty million subjects who exchange their
tropical products for those of the Mother Country. It is in
serving the cause of humanity and progress that peoples
of the second rank appear as useful members of the great
family of nations. More than any other should an indus-
trial and commercial nation like ours strive to secure out-
lets for the products of all its workers — of those who work
with their brain, with their capital, or with their hands.
These patriotic preoccupations hcive dominated my life. It
is they which led to the creation of the African enterprise.
My labor has not proved sterile. A young and vast State,
directed from Brussels, has pacifically taken its place in the
world.

" For Belgium," said a former Prime Minister,
" expansion is an economic necessity. The fact that
we have no fleet is Sufficient to prove that it is not
prompted by Imperial ambition. But with the United
States it is different. Their immense resources in
their own territory are barely scratched. If they
found colonies as the result of conquest it is due to
the lust of power. I do not blame the Government.
13

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■ ^. -C'l *r '

•,■.:-.:'. ^^*_-^

178

TUE UMTED ^STATES OF EUIipi'E

f
t

I )

They were powerless before the ohunor of the crowd.
Kone the less it seems to lue an enormous mistake."

It is quite true that the Belgians, as a nation or as a
state, have neA'er committed themselves to a policy of
over-sea expansion. They are a cautions people. The
Congo adventure is a speculation of the King's. The
proposal to transfer the Congo State to Belgium has
been vehemently and hitherto successfully resisted.
For the last eight years the Belgian Parliament has
devoted 400,000 dols. a year to subsidize the Congo
administration, and it will continue to do so until
1900, when the question of annexation will once more
come up. It is almost certain that the decision will
be again postponed.

One cause for this reluctance to regard the Congo
kingdom as part of the national estate is well worthy
of American attention.

" If the Americans," said an experienced observer,
" wish to rrake a success of the Philippines, as the
Belgians have made of the Congo, the first thing they
have got to do is to discover a Leopold. They need
not call him a king. Of course that is impossible and
unnecessary. But unless they have a capable admin-
istrator with a permanent tenure of office and a free
hand they had better leave it alone. In the Congo
State, the King of the Belgians is a greater autocrat
than the Tsar in Russia. He invented it, he financed
it, he governs it. In every detail his will is supreme.
Ho tells us just so much about its finances as he
chooses. And, being a man of extraordinary ability,

BELGIUM

170

with a quite exceptional genius for finance, he has
achieved a remarkable success. But there is hardly
a man who knows anything about the C^ongo and its
affairs who will not tell you that the attempt to govern
that vast empire by the ever-shifting agency of party
government, based on universal suffrage, would be
foredoomed to failure."

But the scruples of the Belgians are disappearing
in the presence of the boom in Congo stocks. The
ten millions sterling which are now invested in the
Congo railway and Congo commercial companies
stands to-day, according to the Stock Exchange quota-
tions, at no less a sum than thirty millions. The
revenues of the State, including the Belgian and royal
subsidies of £120,000, almost equal the expenditure,
which last year was a trifle under £600,000. The
Congo, therefore, promises to turn out a paying con-
cern, and if the promises are made good, the objections
of the Belgians to become a colonial power will prob-
ably wane and disappear.

Another point on which opinion was practically
unanimous was that it is the merest midsummer mad-
ness to touch the Philippines at all unless the Ameri-
cans take the whole archipelago. To take away
Luzon, the very hub of the wheel, and then leave the
rest of the spokes to Spain on the condition that she
shall govern them more or less on American principles,
was regarded as such unspeakable nonsense that it
can only be criticized by an expressive shrug of the
shoulders.

180

Till] UNITED STATE>S OF EUROPE

h ! <

Belgians arc by no moans indifferent to American
expansion in two directions. They are keenly inter-
ested in the question of the future government of the
Philippines from the point of view of the Catholic
Church. For Belgium for the last fourteen years has
been governed by a succession of Catholic Ministries.
The Liberals who attempted to establish secular edu-
cation have been practically effaced. The Clericals
are in power, confronted by a Socialist opposition; but
the latter have no prospect of gaining office.

I made it my duty to ascertain at first hand the
views of the two men who, more than any others, repre-
sent the feelings of the Catholics. Both were watch-
ing with the keenest interest the development of the
situation in the Far East. Both agreed in expressing
an earnest hope that, whatever is done, no confiscating
hand will be laid upon the property of the religious
orders. One of them, the man who for years has been,
while out of office, almost as potent as Mr. Croker is in
^New York, would not commit himself so far as to say
that he disapproved of introducing religious liberty
into the Philippines, but he evidently leant that way.
" The question," he said, " is whether America intends
to govern these new conquests in accordance with the
wishes of the population, or whether she intends to
exploit them for her ideas. It is not reasonable to say
that, because Belgium grants perfect religious liberty
to the heathen and missionaries of the Congo, there-
fore she must approve of its introduction into the
Philippines. There the unity cf the faith exists. If

BELOIUM

181

say

?rty

lere-

the

you break it down large masses will, as we scv it every-
where, forsake the Catholic Church without joiuing
any other. The result is immorality, which is deplor-
able."

The other, an experienced statesman, once a Prime
Minister and now the President of the Chamber of
Representatives, was much more liberal in his views.
I was f ortunal o in meeting him immediately after his
return from the Vatican, where he had been sum-
moned for lengthy conversations with the Pope and
the Cardinal Secretary of State, Rampolla.

He expressed without hesitation his absolute convic-
tion that religious liberty, as in Belgium and in the
F lited States, was the best thing for the Philippines,
and that he, for his part, would as a Catholic rejoice
to see abolished the whole fabric of intolerance and
sectarian monopoly.

As he had enjoyed the privilege of long conversa-
tions with the Pope and his advisers, I asked him
point blank whether he thought the Holy See shared
his liberal views.

" You cannot expect the Pope," he said, " to make
any declaration in that sense. He could not dc so
without repudiating doctrines affirmed by his prede-
cessors. But he is a statesman ; he is a practical man,
and Rome is swarming with American clerics who
have considerable influence at the Vatican. You
must always distinguish between what the Pope may
think with the front of his head and the arriere pe7isee^
the back of it. Of course, as a matter of principle,

> I

182

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

t !

no Pope can declare in favor of any refusal to enforce
religious uniformity. But if you ask me what I really
believe, I mast tell you that if the Americans establish
religions liberty in the Philippines the Pope will find
his compensations in the increased liberty which he
will enjoy in dealing with the clergy without the inter-
meddling of the civil power. Keligious liberty, as in
Belgium, w^ould not in the long run be detrimental to
Catholic interests."

T.'tese questions are, however, more or less aca-
demical, or at least they concern the few who, in the
privacy of the closet of the confessional, meditate upon
the affairs of this world from their ideal of the King-
dom of Heaven.

Far different was the keen interest excited by the
pressure of American competition in the markets of
the world. Opinions differ widely, but the best in-
formed are the most alarmed. American competi-
tion in food-stuffs has lone: since established itself as
the most formidable factor with which the Eui- pean
agriculturist has to deal. They are now begiiming
to wake up to the fact that American competition is
likely to be not less formidable in manufactured goods.
American watches have long ago driven Swiss watches
out of Belgium; but as a good Belgian remarked, that
concerns the Swiss, not the Belgians. But in the iron
and steel trades the shadow of American competition
looms dark on the horizon.

The other day, in a tender for locomotives, the Bald-
win AVorks at Philadelphia offered to put on the rails

BELGIUM

183

at Antwerp a locomotive at 500 dols. less than the
lowest offer of the great firm of Cockerill.

The general conviction that there will soon be a
great slump in protection in x\merica by no means
lessens their uneasiness. Belgium, as befits a nation
which exports manufactured goods averaging £10 per
head of population, is all for free trade, and, like Mr.
Gladstone, it is inclined to believe that American com-
petition will not be seriously begun to be felt until the
United States has thrown its markets open to the
world.

The brave Belgian is not disposed to despair, but
those who know most about the resources and capa-
bilities of America are the most alarmed.

Prince Albert, who will one day sit on the Belgian
throne, came back from his visit to the United States
profoimdly impressed by the manufacturing resources
of America. lie saw the bicycle factories at Hart-
ford turning out seven hundred cycles a day; he visited
the Baldwin Works, where they build six locomotives
a day; he visited Pullman's works, where they turn
out a wagon every fourteen minutes; and he tells how
Mr. Carnegie produces three-fifths of the whole steel
output of England. He spent a week travelling in
a private train with Mr. Hill, of St. Paul, and he came
home overwhelmed by the spectacle of the mineral
and mechanical resources of the Republic.

" I saw," he said on his return, " in one place a
mountain of ore in which the mineral extracted from
the higher levels made its way by natural gravitation

184

THE UXTTED STATES OF EUROPE

down the hill to meet at the furnace the coal mined
at its foot, and almost without the intervention of the
hand of man the process was complete. How can we
compete with such a country as that? "

" Alas! " said Prince Albert to an American friend,
"you will eat us all up, you Americans; you will eat
us all up."

The response of the Belgians to the Tsar's Kescript
has been most enthusiastic. On this subject Belgium
is practically unanimous. Everywhere the proposal
has been liailed with enthusiasm — even in quarters
where it might liave been scouted. The Catholics,
from the highest to the lowest, are as one man in favor
of the Tsar's philanthropic design. In this they are
in absolute accord with their head. K^othing could
exceed the delight of the Holy Father on receiving
the appeal of the Tsar in such a cause. For once there
is a veritable reunion of Christendom: the official
chiefs of the Greek Orthodox and of the Roman
Catholic Churches are now going hand in hand in a
crusade of peace. There are special reasons why the
Roman Catholics should welcome the Russian pro-
posal. Even if the Confereuce did not go one step
further than decrceinc; a stav of armaments for five
years, it would deliver the Belgian people at once from
a constantly pressir^g menace of increased armament^^.

For years past there has been a tug-of-war going on
in Belgium between the Xing and his subjects on this
very question. The Belgian standing army is only
31,000 strong. It is raised by the old-fashioned

BELGIUM

185

method of conscription, and hitherto the Belgians
have obstinately resented all the appeals of their King
to introduce universal compulsory military service.
The King is not a man of war. He is emphatically
a man of peace. But he stands between two fires.
France is always whispering into his right ear that
unless he increases his army the Germans will invade
France via Brussels; while the Germans whisper as
earnestly into his left ear that unless he introduces
universal military service Belgium will inevitably be-
come the cockpit of the bloodiest war ever fought
between civilized men. But the Belgian, who hates
even th^ conscription, will not tolerate the idea of uni-
versal service. It appeals no doubt to certain demo-
cratic prejudices, and it appeals specially to the in-
stinct of self-preservation. The Belgian Parliament,
however, will have none of it, and the Catholic party,
which created and sustains the Government, is irrec-
oncilably opposed to the whole scheme. The feud
is so fierce that no General can be found who will ac-
cept ofiice as Minister of AVar unless the army is en-
larged according to the King's desire. The present
Minister of AVar is a civilian who tacks on the control
of the military machine to the more congenial labors
of the Ministry of Ways and Communications. It is
obvious what a godsend the Tsar's proposal has been
to the governing ' dy in Belgium. At a stroke the
Tsar has delivered them from the one dread which has
haunted them for years. If the Conference succeeds,
and the status quo is stereotyped, the ideal of the

186

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

' li I

B' N":i

Belgian Government is attained, for all talk of
universal compulsory military service vanishes into
limbo.

The Socialists look the Kussian gift liorse in the
mouth, and shake their heads when they find the prin-
ciples on which they have so often insisted coun-
tersigned by a Tsar. Some o:. their spokesmen have
insisted upon the necessity of inaugurating the Millen-
nium by establishing the universal reign of right
against might, as a condition preliminary to any ac-
ceptance of the disarmament proposal.

But the popular feeling is unmistakable. Whether
in the press or on the platform, in the palace of the
King, or even in the camp of the army itself, there
is only one opinion as to the sincerity of the Tsar and
the duty of all civilized men to back him up. I spent
a Monday afternoon in Liege, the great centre of the
Belgian gun trade. There was there in session a
Catholic Social Democratic Congress, attended by
workmen and a host of Progressive priests from the
country side. Although it was not in their regular
agenda, a workingman from Brussels insisted upon
interpolating into their proceedings a hearty vote of
api)reciation and support to the Tsar for his proposal
of a Conference of Disarmament. The motion, stud-
ded with copious " whereases " and couched in the
choicest Catholic phraseology, was carried with una-
nimitv and enthusiasm.

Men like General Brialmont, who believe in their
profession, are dubious about the possibility of achiev-

\i .

A'. FafitoiiUd'., linifsilx
M. IMCEXAKKT

(iliiniiitr Fi\rfx, }lnt>:stls
M. AVOKSTE

(ieruzet Frlns, Jirust^tU

llAUOX VOX KKTVKI.DK
State Hocrt'tary for tlu' Coiil'o I'l'tc Sinti'

PKUMINKNT STATESMEN OF JiEEtilTM

Ji'ii.isi// (uiit Sons
M. D'aI.VIKI.I.V

Iri

i •;

BELGIUM

187

ing any practical result. But the Belgians who do
not wear epaulets are more sanguine.

What ultimate outcome there may be no one can
say. But I saw and heard enough in this microcosm
of Europe to realize how grievous will be the disap-
pointment, liow terrible the disillusion if the splendid
initiative of ihe Tsar is not energetically supported
and carried to a successful conclusion.

fC-i^ LIBRARY, %

<■' ^ N I']

1899

^vO

O-

1 '•

I I

CHAPTEB n

, ii'

FRANCE

Last autumn the Kew W^orld invaded the Old
World, and in Paris the Hotel Continental was the
headquarters of the Army of Invasion. It was a
pacific invasion, no doubt, but the invaders were bent,
if not on conquest and annexation, at least upon appro-
priation and extension of borders.

The struggle that went on between the French
authorities and the United States Commissioners of
the Exposition of 1900 brought forcibly home to the
European the great question of the future. It is a
miniature reproduction on a small scale of the conflict
of forces which looms ever more gigantic before the
eyes of mankind.

" Tioom, room, room there for the I^ew World ! "
cried Mr. Commissioner-General Peck. The Ameri-
can must have room to spread himself and his wares
at the AYorld's Pair with which Paris will salute the
new century, and the allocation of space in the Expo-
sition grounds is far too small. The amiable French
Ministers expostulate with polite shoulder shrug.
*^ 'Tis impossible. What would our friends the Ameri-
cans have us do? Germanv and Great Britain are

he Old
was the
t was a
re bent,
a appro-
French
fners of
to the
It is a
conflict
ore the

orld! "

Anieri-

5 wares

ite the

Expo-

rench

shrug.

A.meri-

in are

riiK I'Aiiis I'.oriisK

TIIK AlK' DK TKIOMl'IIK, I'AUIS

■J

" V? '

' !•

II •-

FRANCE

189

also imperiously clamoring for more ground space.
AVe have already allotted the United States all we can
spare. It is impossible, quite impossible."

"Impossible!" thunders the Commissioner-Gen-
eral; "don't use to me that idiot of a word! Your
space is small, I admit — only 336 acres as against 750
acres at Chicago. But our ncBds arc great. Room,
make room for the growing giant of the Western
World!"

What can be done? The 336 acres cannot be
stretched like elastic. All the space is appropriated.
If Uncle Sam were to have more room, he could only
have it at someone else's expense. Perhaps a scrap
of space can be secured from a concessionnaiic — here
and there a bit can be saucezed from some South
American Republic. But if Mr. Commissioner-
General Peck and his staff Avero to attain the object
on which they had set their hearts, " somebody's got
to git."

The Americans were quite remorseless, ruthless,
relentless in their demands. Chicago, in the person
of Mr. Peck, and ^ew York, in the person of Mr.
Woodward, backed by President McKinley and the
whole of the United States, were determined that who-
ever got left in the scramble for space it should not
be Uncle Sam. They were hustling round at a great
rate, negotiating, blarneying, bullying, buying, push-
ing, until the Old World felt that it was being crowded
on its own ground, perhaps even crowded out of its
own ground by the Western conqueror.

190

Tilt: LMTIJD tiTATEti OF EUROPE

What went on in tlie Exposition grounds is going
on on land and sea all round this planet. The shrink-
age of the world has suddenly brought the nations face
to face M'ith each other. In the markets, in the colo-
nies, and on the high seas the Old World is beginning
to realize that perhaps there may no longer be enough
to go round, that somebody is going to get left, and
that that somebody is not going to be the N^ew World.
Tlie conviction is coming home more slowly to the
Frenchmen than to the Belgians, but they are learning
it all the same.

The result is an immediate increase of the deference
paid to the United States by the French. Nothing
succeeds like success; and the difference in the attitude
of the French to the Americans since Manila and
Santiago is more marvellous than edifying. French-
men of all classes, who twelve months ago sneered at
the " dollar-hunting Yankee " as their forefathers
scoffed at " the nation of shopkeepers " across the
Channel, are running over each other in a helter-
skelter race, vying with each other as to which can
first fall on Uncle Sam's neck and embrace him. The
way the Fourth of July was celebrated in Paris last
year, as compared wath its predecessors, was an object-
lesson in the worship of the rising sun. If by any
possibility any space could be discovered any way in
the Exhibition of 1900 it w'as of course to be made
over to the sister Republic, rather than to the German
or to the Briton. Was not the Commissioner-General
ready to erect a statue of Lafayette in the grounds — if

3 IS going
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tions face

the colo-
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left, and
w AYorld.
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Militaiv OoviTiior of Paris

ForK PK()MTXf:xT fhp:nc'iimkx of to-day

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FRANCE

191

only he could get the space on which to set it up ? The
Minister of Commerce and the Minister of Foreign Af-
fairs vied with each other in paying exceptional com-
pliments to the Commissioners of the United States.
Xay, it was even hinted that in 1899 American goods
would be admitted to France under the minimum
tariff, reciprocal concession being of course anticipated
on the other side.

The war was a revelation to the average Frenchman.
^Vhen Dewey destroyed the Spanish fleet at Manila
the scales began to fall from their eyes, and they " saw
men as trees walking/' When Cervera's fleet shared
the same fate off Santiago, they realized that a new
naval power had been born into the w^orld, inheriting
from the Destinies, as one of them put it, the good
fortune that has always attended the English on the
seas. Early in the war a report that the American
fleet had been destroyed and Admiral Sampson killed
threw the Parisian populace into a paroxysm of de-
light. In those days no one disguised his sympathies
with Spain. But nowadays they all agree to forget
all that, and they are already convinced that there
were never such friends of the Americans as the
French, and never have been since the world began.

All this is very pleasant for Americans in Paris,
and it contributed to facilitate the work of the Peace
Commissioners. There was no trace of a disposition
in official quarters to make any difficulties in settling
the terms of peace. If the United States were to
insist upon annexing every scrap of territory pos-

i *j

192

TIII'J UXITED STATES OF EUROPE

{■\

sessed by Spain m the West Indies and the Far East,
France would not interfere. The only demur made
to the Imperial expansion of the United States comes
from experienced observers like M. de Pressense, of
the Temps, who regret the new departure, not because
it affects France, but because it endangers the Ameri-
can Republic. The French are at present exhibiting
to the world some of the deplorable results of domi-
nant militarism. They sigh when they see the New
World gliding down the inclined plane which leads
to Caesarism. They declare that the annexation of
the Antilles and of the Philippines will necessitate
the creation of a large standing army, the enrolment
of a corps of functionaries, a departure from all the
traditions of the Republic, and a total transformation
of the letter and spirit of the American Constitution.
In France, as in Britain, it is the men who know most
of the United States — such men as Mr. Bryce and M.
de Pressense — who are most alarmed as to the conse-
quences of the new departure of the Xew AVorld.

When I was in Paris I wrote to the Asbociated
]^ress : —

I see that there appears still to be some question as to
whether the European Powers ever actually proposed to
intervene on behalf of Spain. The story was that they had
decided to do so, and were only stopped by the blunt intima-
tion from Lord Salisbury that if they ever attempted any
such thing the British fleet would be placed under the orders
of Mr. McKinley. It is a very pretty tale, and Lord Salis-
bury might have said something of the kind if the other
Powers had been mad enough to propose any such thing.
Pobsibly some influential Briton did say something of the

FRANCE

103

kind when talk of intervention was in the air. But I have
the highest official authority, both British and French, for
stating that there was never any proposal brought forward
by M, Hanotaux for European intervention against the
United States, and that therefore no occasion arose for the
exercise of the friendly offices of England. I regret having
to destroy the legend, but magna est Veritas, and however
delighted John Bull might have been to have lent a friendly
hand to Uncle Sam if the Continental Powers had tried to
interfere, he never had the chance. And for this reason.
The European Powers, and France most of all, had too much
sense.

as to
d to
had

tima-
any

)rders

Salis-
other
hlng.
f the

The origin of this story I discovered two months
later when I visited Vienna. The legend had, after
all, an indestrnctible ])asis of truth.

Men of the world, men of experience, men of affairs
— above all, men who are deeply versed in the tor-
tuous wiles of diplomacy — agree in expecting nothing
from the Conference of Disarmament, and in fearing
much. If the hard-pressed toilers of the world are
to obtain any appreciable relief from the crushing load
of Militarism, they will have to extend to the generous
initiative of the Tsar a much, more hearty reception
than it is receiving from the men in office. The
Democracy may help the Autocracy to achieve this
boon for the human race. It will certainly not reach
them at the hands of the Bureaucracy.

Every^vherc the Governments have answered the
]\[uravieff Rescript with the customary courtesy that
is always extended to anything that is said by the
master of many legions, but, with one or two excep-
tions, of responsive enthusiasm there has been none.
18

194

TEE UNITED STATED OF EUROPE

'■ 'I

Every one admits the sincerity of the Tsar, every one
professes to admire his idealism and his philanthropy.
But when all that is said and doxie, there is the most
astonishing consensus of opinion that " it is not busi-
ness." " Everything," they say with a shrug of the
shoulders, " will go on exactly the same as before.
There is onlv one Circular the more."

So speak everywhere th'^ cynical and very much
disillusioned diplomatists. Diplomacy, it must be
admitted, is not usually a forcing-bed for moral enthu-
siasms. Ambassadors and Ministers who for the last
thirty years have been perpetiially face to face with
the omnipresent activity of Bismarck may be pardoned
for thinking twice, and even thrice, before they expect
any good thing to come from the Nazareth of Imperial
Chancelleries. Men who for the last half-dozen years
have been familiarized with the ineptitude of the
European Concert can hardly be expected to have
many illusions left as to the possibility of bringing in
the Kingdom of Heaven by any sort of international
compact. It is only in the hearts of the common
people, and among the masses whore, far from the
coulisses of diplomacy a'xid the intrigues of Courts,
men still cherish generous (enthusiasms and an un-
shaken faith in the great ideals of Peace, Justice and
Progress, tliat the Tsar's proposal elicits any hearty
response. " After all," said a young countryman,
after a long discussion with a friend, " the Millennium
is bound to come some day, and who can say whether
it may not come this way as well as any other! " " The

FRANCE

195

Millennium is bound to come some day " — there is the
keynote of the situation. From those who believe
that, who cling to it as the great hope of the world, as
the eternal pole star of the progress of mankind, the
Conference on Disarmament receives a welcome the
heartiness of which is only weakened by the haunting
fear that it may be too good to be true.

The full significance of the Tsar's initiative has,
however, as yet been but dimly perceived, even by
those who have welcomed it most heartily. Alto-
gether apart from its proposals, or the subject of them,
it carries written in every line of it the glad tidings of
great joy that the winter of the period of old age is
over and gone, and that once more mankind is facing
the glad, joyous spring-time of a new century, under
the leadership of those whose hearts are still fresh with
the divine inspiration of youth. The old century is
dying — let it die. Dr. Busch's " Secret Pages of Bis-
marck's History " furnii'>hes us at once with its epitaph
and its condemnation^ But lo! the sky glows in the
East with the first promise of the splendor of the com-
ing day. In the Imperial Rescript, however Utopian
it may be, we have the first great challenge which the
new age has flung at the feet of the most gigantic evil
of our time. Here, at least, is something of the faith,
the cou^:tge, and the magnificent audacity of youth.
In the task of high emprise to which Nicholas II. sum-
mons the nations of the world he may fail. It is not
in mortals to command success. But it is better to
have tried and failed than never to have tried at all.

196

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

Hence, the more we think of it, the more just, the
more true, appears the pregnant dictum of Mr. Morley.
The Tsar's appeal is a touchstone of the peoples. " It
will show us what we are and where we stand."

It is natural that in France, and most of all in Paris,
the doubting spirit which denies should be paramount.
It is a hundred years since France used up the enthu-
siasm of the lievolution in lighting the camp fires of
the N^apolconic armies. Since then, although there
has ever been a remnant who have preserved the sacred
fire, " the men who swing France," whether under
monarclis, Empire or Kepublic, have not exactly been
French-speaking Quixotes. So far, indeed, have mod-
ern Frenchmen gone in the other direction that I well
remember, ten years ago, hearing one, now recognized
as one of the most influential diplomatists, laughing to
scorn the notion that there was even enough idealism
left in France to make the war of revenge popular
with the people. " There are only two men in
France," he said in his bitter, sarcastic fashion, " who
ever think of such an ideal thing as the fate of Alsace-
Lorraine, and one of them is a woman." He referred,
of course, to the soldier-poet, Paul Deroulede, who has
just been threatening M. Clemenceau with the guillo-
tine, and Madame Adam, of the Nouvelle Revue. The
worship of material comfort has succeeded all other
ideals with most Frenchmen. Hence the Tsar's ap-
peal falls upon ears stuffed as with cotton wool, and
awakens slight response in hearts which resound all
day long with the Babel of the Bourse. There is no

FRAXCE

197

st, tlie
[orley.
. "It

L Paris,
mount,
enthu-
fires of
h. there
3 sacred
• under
ly been
ve mod-
1 1 well
ognized
liing to
dealism
popular
men in
, " who
Alsace-
eferred,
who has
guillo-
e. The
1 other
ar's ap-
3ol, and
>und all
re is no

longer a Victor Hugo worthily to respond in the name
of France to the initiative of the Tsar.

The faithful few who arc true to the great ideals
of the Revolution, and the still smaller renmant who
worship in secret at the shrine of the Prince of Peace,
are overborne in the roar and rush of politicians and
financiers. They find it more than they can do even
to keep the scales of justice free from the sword of
Brennus at home. They have no energy left to com-
bat militarism abroad. The army itself, which is tra-
ditionally supposed to be the cradle of all that is most
exalted in heroic sentiment, can hardly be expected to
wax very enthusiastic in support of a Peace Confer-
ence. But there is another reason for the coolness of
Paris towards the Conference. The French felt hurt
that they had not been consulted by their ally beijre
he issued the Rescript. They anticipated nothing in
the world so little as such a proposal from such a quar-
ter. Not disarmament, but more armaments, was
their idea of what the Tsar desired. To oblige him
they had even allowed French shipbuilders to give
priority to the construction of Russian warships over
those of France, to the production of which it had re-
peatedly been declared all the shipbuilding resources
of the nation would be exclusively devoted. The Re-
script, therefore, simply took away their breath. They
felt themselves, in more senses than one, " up a tree."
They did not know where they were or what the
Tsar Avas driving at. Tliev thought he was spoiling
for a fight, and lo! he issued an encyclical to the

198

THE USITED STATES OF EUROPE

■A

world at large, proclaiming the supreme importance
of Peace !

Behind all that first natural sensation of surprise
there was another which wer t much deeper. The pro-
posal to attend a Conference to discuss disarmament
,' «me^^ suggest that there was no longer a purpose
f*» ]u'« jv'ng up such gigantic military establishments.
In ' ;;,.)i' nords, it appeared to imply that Europe had
at last settiea down in a state of normal equilibrium,
and that everybody was practically content with the
existing fr< ntiers. That was, in effect to ask all the
nations of the Avorld to enter upon a pact cf peace, the
practical result of which would be that each and all
of them would countersign and guarantee the Treaty
of Frankfort. That treaty, indeed, would, in such a
case, become the very charter and basis of the system
which the Conference was to inaugurate. Farewell,
then, to all hope of the Revanche; farewell for ever
to Alsace and Lorraine ! To bid such farewells may be
obeyed if it be a decree of the Destinies, against which
it is vain to repine and impotent to rebel. But to be
suddenly summoned by your own friend and partner,
dpropos de rine, to say those farewells at a moment's
notice — that, indeed, was more than French human
nature could bear. Hence, after the publication of
the Rescript, a profound and miserable chill came
over French sentinient towards their Russian all v.

That mood existed, but it has passed. Count Mura-
vieff had no difficulty in explaining that the Tsar was
bound, in taking- such initiative, to consult no other

:l'

FRANCE

199

taiice

rprise
e pro-
iment
irpose
nents.
)e had
)rmm,
th the
ill the
36, the
nd all
Treaty
such a
system
rewell,
>r ever
nay be
which
t to be
artner,
ment's
luman
ion of
came
Uv.
Mura-
5ar was
other

Power, for the twofold reason that if he had consulted
any one it would have compromised the Power he t( >k
into his confidence and have offended the other Powers
who were not consulted. It was equally easy to ex-
plain that wliile the Rescript might initiate a policy
that hereafter might have immense consequences, it
did not even suggest any such cliimerical a step as the
immediate disbandment, or even the immediate reduc-
tion, of armaments. What w , suggested was merely
to cry halt in tlie race to ruin, ar to discuss arrange-
ments for arresting the contniuous increase of expen-
diture on armies and navies. If France objected, of
course nothiue- could be done. The absolute inde-
pendence of each Power ^vas intact. But there were
good reasons wli}'^ France slioidd not object. She has
already reached the uhimate limit of her resources in
men. She could uot increase the annual contingent
of recruits, for the simple but sufficient reason that
French mothers no longer bear enough boys to furnish
any more food for powder. Germany has still a vast
reservoir of surplus manhood to draw upon. To
stereotype the status quo would therefore be at least
as great a gain to France in this respect as it could be
to Germany by its indirect and apparent consecration
of the Treaty of Frankfort.

There were still other reasons which have con-
tributed not a little to assuage the irritation felt in
France at the Tsar's proposal. It was obvious that the
first condition sine qua non of the meeting of the* Con-
ference was that the Powers represented, in agreeing

•t;

/*.^

800

THE i'XITED STATES OF EUROPE

to discuss the financial, military, and economical prob-
lem mooted by the Tsar, did so without prejudice to
all the political and territorial questions on Avliich they
differed. At one time, it is conceivable, a Tsar might
have refused to enter into a Conference with France,
lest it might appear to imply that he recognized the
principle of Kepul)licanisni, Xow not even the great-
est stickler for the Divine right of Kings fools that he
is false to his convictions or consecrates the principle
of the Revolution by meeting the lepresentatives of
the Republic, or even of entering into an alliance with
a Republican Government. As it is M'ith political
questions, so it is with those relating to frontiers.
They are as much out of the purview of the Confer-
ence as questions of dynasties or of the rival principles
of Monarchy and Democracy. The Conference will
no more discuss the question of Alsace-Lorraine than
it will discuss transubstantiation or the Rights of Man.
But that is not all. For the Tsar has at hand a
valuable and effective reply to the French complaint.
The proposed Conference may postpone the immediate
outbreak of a war of revenge for the revindication of
the lost provinces, l^ut it certainly does not do so more
decisively than the French had done already by their
great exhibition of 1900. That Exhibition is itself
a kind of Peace Conference. When France invited
Germany to exhibit her goods in the great show of
the new century, she acquiesced in the status quo.
Of course, she did not guarantee Germany the un-
interrupted possession forever of her lost provinces.

ill ti

FRANCE

301

Neither will she do so by accepting the Tsar's invita-
tion. But she did give Germany the very best and
liiost substantial security against a sudden French at-
tack that an;, one could desire. These and other con-
siderations have had their weiglit, and the momentary
irritation against their Kussian ally has already abated.
The question as to whether the French people are
longing for revenge and the revindication of their lost
provinces is one on which the most widely diverse
opinions are expressed. There is, however, substan-
tial agreement among men of all shades of opinion
that while France vigilantly maintains all her reserves
and is resolved to take advantage of all the opportuni-
ties which fortune may send her to regain her old
provinces, she will never of her own motion or on her
own initiative make war on Germany. A leading
French statesman with whom I was discussing this
question expressed in the very strongest terms his con-
viction that no French ^linistrv will ever take the initi-

ative in attacking Germany. "' The risk would be too
great, the sacrifices too immense. If Germany were
involved in war elsewhere — ah, then, tliat would be
another matter. But as long as Germany is at peace
we shall not lift a finger to dispos'^ess her." This helps
to enable us to understand what a powerful security
for peace the ineradicable yearning for the lost prov-
inces has become in Europe to-day.

A shrewd and experienced observer in Paris, on the
other hand, told me that the popular feeling in favor of
war was stronger now than ii had ever been since 1870.

208

THE UNITED HTATEH OF EUROPE

The lessons of that terrible year have been forgotten.
Paris is now in the hands of young men to whom the
bombardment of Paris is only a matter of history and
of tradition. Bismarck is gone. All the great Gen-
erals who conquered France are dead. The French
army was never stronger or better equipped than now.
If the French saw their chance, they would not hesi-
tate for a moment. If, for instance, the Russian Em-
peror but held up his little finger !

But the Russian Emperov is holding his little finger
down. There is another side to this alleged eagerness
of France for war. It is the French of the Parisian
boulevards that talk so lightly of so dire a catastrophe.
France of the provinces — laborious, thrifty, cautious
France — is of another opinion. A brilliant and dis-
tinguished Frenchman — diplomatist, journalist, and
patriot — assured me that the French peasant was very
far from sharing the views of the boulevards. " If
you were to go to-day,'' he said, '' to the average
French peasant, and tell him that the circumstances
were so propitious that he could certainly reconquer
Alsace-Lorraine by an expenditure of only 10,000
men and £10,000,000, he would reply unhesitatingly,
* No; I will not spend either the men or the money.' "
It may be so. But the worst of it is that the war is
made before the peasant has an opportunity of having
his say. It is not his to decide. It is only his to pay,
to suffer, and to die.

The question of the Peace Conference I found ex-
cited little attention in Paris excepting on account of

FRANCE

203

tlie bearing which it uiight have on the Franco-Rus-
sian Alliance. AVhen that alliance was formed, those
who did not know the Tsar imagined that it was a
menace to the peace of Europe. Those who knew the
Tsar knew otherwise. The object of Alexander III.
in thus restoring the equilibrium of Europe and in
satisfying the wounded amour propre of France was
the natural culmination of the policy which won for
him the title of the Peace Keeper of the Continent.
In his eyes France isolated, France nervous, France
desperate, was a constant menace to the ])eace of the
world. At any moment she might make a plunge,
by which she would hurl not only herself but all other
nations into the hell of a general war. To prevent
this it was necessary to offer her inducements sufficient
to lead her to acquiesce in the status quo. There were
two perils of war before Europe, both threatened by
France. She had never accepted either the German
possession of Alsace-Lorraine or the British occupation
of Egypt. To attempt to reestablish her position
either in Metz or in Cairo meant war. To minimize
the risk of any such peace-shattering policy, Alexander
III., without asking for any express disclaimer by his
ally of hostile designs directed either against Germany
or Britain, virtually secured the practical acceptance
of the status quo by offering France an alliance which
was guaranteed to fall to pieces if slie undertook an
aggressive war. Russia flung over tlie French Repub-
lic the immense segis of her alliance, delivering France
from all dread of attack from without, and r storing

204

TIIJ'J US IT ED STATERS OF EUROPE

her at once to the position in Europe which she had
lost in 1870. But all these advantages were forfeited
if France drew the sword against the existing order,
the sUdiis quo ch facto on the Khine and the Xile.
Hence the Franco-Russian Alliance became, as it was
intended it should become, a solid security for Euro-
pean peace, and therefore, little as the Erencli liked it,
a virtual consecration of the Treaty of Frankfort. It
was acclaimed, no doubt, by the Chauvinists of the
boulevards as if it were the first step to the Revanche.
It was exac'ly the opposite. But Baron Mohrenheim
appears to have fooled the self-deluded Frenchmen to
the top of their bent, while the Tsar, conscious that he
had made the limitations of the alliance absolutely
clear to the rulers of the Republic, felt under no obli-
gation to make public declarations which might have
annulled tlie whole object of his policy of peace. The
Tsar knew also that although the boulevards of Paris
might revel in the delirium of anticipated war, the
French nation, pacific and industrious, hailed with im-
mense relief an alliance which delivered it at once
from all risk of foreign attack, or from the still greater
peril of such a lieadlong rush to ruin as that which cul-
minated on the battlefield of Sedan.

France is preoccupied with the Dreyfus case. And
the Dreyfus case is militarism come to judgment, mili-
tarism made manifest before the world. The tree is
known by its fruits, and the impoiichment of militar-
ism on economic grounds contained in the ]\Iuravieff
circular is supplemented and made complete by the

I !■

FRANCE

205

And
niili-
ree is
lilitav-
•avioff
)y the

revelation of the outcome of militarism in the moral
Held. " j\Iilitarism," says the Tsar, '" empties the
pockets of the nations." And France, responding
across the Continent, as deep answers unto deep,
answers, ''And destroys their souls! "

France, preoccupied, absorbed, possessed by the
T3reyfus case, is the drunken helot of militarism to-
day. She is as one bewitched, the prey of some foiil
obsessing demon, which takes a perverse delight in
compelling her to wallow in all manner of defilements,
from which " ideal France, the deathless, the divine,"
would have recoiled with angry scorn. It is the Nem-
esis of the system against which the Tsar has taken
the field. France never had a more numerous or bet-
ter equipped army than she possesses at present. But
France never was weaker, more timorous, more under
the terror of those nightmares which disturb the sleep
of nations. It is not an exaggeration to say that the
net result up to date of all the sacrifices which France
has made over her armaments is to make her a prey
to panic to an extent almost inconceivable to any one
outside Paris. You ask in amazement : '' Whv all this
tremendous hubbub over the revision of a sentence
admittedly illegal, defended by evidence admittedly
forged? " and the opponents of revision "whisper with
white lips that revision would inevitably bring about
war! To avoid the risk of so terrible an alternative,
better let a thousand innocent men perish in the
Devil's Isle! Thus it appears that France, despite all
her armaments — nay, is it not because of them? — has

! (

I I

206

TUIJ IMTED ISTATEi^ OF ELlWl'i:

l)ecome so coward of heart and craven of .spirit that
she dare not even do justice to one of her own officers
for fear of the foreigner! Such abject poltroonery
would disgrace the pettiest of states without a gun
in its arsenal or a fort on its frontiers. But to this pass
has come to-day this distraught Ivepublic.

The delirium will pass. Ilevision is already virtu-
ally secured, and the light is already beginning to
break through the dense darkness in which France
has lain so long. But for the present the country is
still in the throes of a ic\er, which springs as directly
from the atmosphere of the barrack-room as ague re-
sults from the malaria of the marsh. Xations create
armies that they may be strong and independent, able
to do justice within their own frontier, none daring to
make them afraid. But France, having sacrificed
everything to the creation of her army, has been afraid
to do justice because of her army. The army, no
longer a means to an end, having become an end in
itself, thus tends to defeat the very aim and object of
its being. The nation, or at least such portions of the
nation as find articulate expression in the press, has
been in a very ague fit of fear. It cowered before its
o\vn shadow. It trembled at the thought of the wrath
of the foreigner. It shrieked in panic dread at the
mere suggestion that even officers of the General Staff
should be compelled to obey the laws. There is no
crime which its more demented spokesmen do not com-
mit, either in imagination or in fact. They glorify
forgery, applaud suicide, and openly exult in the pros-

FliAXCE

207

n'c its
^vratll
it the
Staff
is no
com-
lorify
pros-

pective massacre of tlioiisands of tlieir fellow-country-
men. Everything that is base, everything that is dis-
honorable, everything that is cowardly, everything
that is false, abject and criminal forms the constant
meditation of Frenchmen to-day. AVhichever side
they belong to, these arc the things they impute to
each other; and if th-y are the party in power, these
are the things they employ without hesitation in their
panic-stricken warfare against a nightmare. To such
a pass has militarism dominant brought our once noble
France — France of the Ivevolution, France of Jeanne
d'Arc.

It is easy to see the direct bearing of this upon the
proposal of the Tsar. In the Middle Ages the knights
progressively increased the thickness of their armor
until the fighting-man became a mere iron-cased
mummv. He had not sufficient strength to move be-
ncath his defences. In France we see the same phe-
nomenon in the moral field. Her moral vitality is no
longer sufficient to move under the superincumbent
mass of her armaments. The old ideas, so distinct-
ively French, of Chivalry, Liberty, Justice, Law — all
the sublime ideals which made France for centuries
the kniglit-errant of liumanity — appear to liave per-
ished beneath the weight of her immense military sys-
tem. The amour propre of the army, the prestige of
a staff, liave superseded the nobler ideals of national
life. Matters are much worse now thTu in the Middle
Ages. Vo the iron and steel cuirasses of the over-
loaded knights were at least inert matter. But the

r:i

208

THE LXI'J D >iTAli:-l 01 -JLU'd'E

armature beneath wliicli the ntUioi) is peiibliing to-day
has a horrible vitality of its own. it is, as it were,
alive, and believes that the body exists for it, and that
brain, heart, conscience, and the ideal, wMcli are col-
lectively the sonl of the nation, is a itn'nus (piantity
compared with ihc prestige^, the authority, and the con-
venience of the army. They, if n<»t the ultimate,
must at least be very near the ultimate, stage in the
self-destructive evolution of modern militarism. No-
where in Ein'ope could the J'sar find so terrible an
object-lesson of the results of the baneful system upon
which he is making war. France is a puissant ally,
indeed, in the great argument for diearmament.

The danger spot in Europe is, n») doubt, Alsace-
Lorraine. But 'he beneficent Power who maketh
even the wrath of man to praise llini seems to be em-
ploying this Dreyfus delirium of ])anic and crime to
reduce the acuteness of that danger. England long
ago lost the moral allegiance of the Irish, the majority
of whom are f ; ;nore American than English. The
Dreyfus busiut • Is probal)ly the most direct means by
which France could have alienated the moral alle-
giance of the Alsatian })oople. That which the Treaty
of Frankfort failed to effect the Dreyfus scandal is
fast accomplishing. The people of Alsace see with
amazement and indignation the denial of justice to
Alsatians. Albert Di-eyfus in the He du Diable is an
Alsatian. So is Colonel Piccpiart. It is enough to
bear an Alsatian name to be hounded down as a Ger-
man. To be a Protestant is almost as heinous a crime

liiiig to-day
as it were,
it, and that
licli are coi-
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FRAyCE

200

as to 1)C a Jew. Tlio lioncst Alsatians do not under-
stand all this. Their patrie, to whose fortunes they
have clung with a tonehing ..dolity, was a different
France from this. So they are nithlessly being driven
from their allegiance, and every day they are more
and more strongly tempted to become nice reconciled
to the German.

It was of no nse discussing in Paris the details of
the Conference on Disarmament. Xo one spares the
subject a thought. That is not the way the Franco-
Russian Alliance works. His French ally is helping
the Tsar in a much more effective fashion. For this
Dreyfus business has pretty effectively resulted in the
practical di^^armament of France. Xever since the
Commune stood at bay behind the ramparts of Paris
has France been so paralyzed by internal divisions.
As long as the Dreyfus business lasts, France is a
cipher in Europe. AVlienever for a moment the saner
France emerges from the Malebolgic pool of passion,
suspicion, hatred and savagery beneath which it is sub-
merged, there always comes, as a flood tide, a revived
interest in the affaire Dreyfus. What a turbid tide
it is, reeking from the cloaca maxima of the world,
bearing along upon its turbid waves the bloody corpse
of the suicide TTenrv, which tosses about amid the
wreck of much higher reputations, the disjecta mem-
bra of the General Staff. It is a mournful spectacle.
But who can deny that it makes for general peace?

There is, of course, a possibility that the A'ery mad-
ness of the hour mav lead to some sudden outbreak.

210

THE UNITED »ST.irL\V OF EUROPE

)

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As Count Arnim wrote in 1871: " The French cannot
be judged by the same standard as other nations.
They have no sense of proportion, and attach impor-
tance to matters that in reality have no significance.
In a madhouse the merest trifles may lead to a revolt,
and even if it be suppressed, it may first cost the lives
of many honest people." There is a danger here, no
doubt. But, as Bismarck wrote about the same time :
" Two peoples dwell in France — the French and the
Parisians. The former loves i^eace. The latter writes
the newspapers, and seeks to pick a quarrel which
the other then has to fight out. Both, however,
should clearly remember how near the German army
is at Chateau Thierry." The German army is no
longer at Chateau Thierry. But the solid argument
of force is quite as irresistible to-day as it was in 1871,
perhaps even nr ore so. And now there is added to that
ultima ratio ngun the fact that the Tsar, the ally and
the friend of France, has sumr.oned all nations to a
Parliament of Peace.

f i ■

CHAPTER III

GERMANY

In a bright apartment overlooking Friodricli Wil-
lielni Strasse I sat pleading the other day for the Tsar's
proposals. I was addressing myself to the gracious
lady of the household, who, as she sat with her fifteen-
months-old boy nestling in her arms, seemed a living
personification of the ]\[adonna and Child, uniting the
glory of motherhood with the infinite promise of
youth. She was no unworthy symbol of Europe. In
her veins ran the mingled strain of noble blood of
divers nations, and the face glowed with the noble
enthusiasm of the political and social ideals to which
she has dedicated her life. The curly-headed boy,
coyly looking upon the stranger from the stronghold
of his mother's arms, might have been the original of
Eaphael's Divine Child. As I talked of the need of
the nations for release from the intolerable burden
of militarism, she sighed.

" Indeed, indeed, it is true. But will it come from
such a quarter? His ideas in the Rescript are alto-
gether our ideas. As Rebel said the other day, ^ The
Tsar is now" our comrade a^id ally.' But we do not
trust Russia."

212

THIJ UMTJJD STATES OF EUROPE

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'* Do not look a gift horse in the mouth," I replied,
" is a very good proverh. And great good once came
out of Nazareth. But if these are your ideas, why
not su])port the ideas even when they are put forward
hy the Tsar^ "

" These are our ideas indeed. J^J^o Social Democrat
nor any section of the working population of Germany
but would welcome with open arms any practical pro-
posal to deliver the people from the corvee of mili-
tarismus, which is so teri'ible a burden upon "

Here we were suddenly interrupted. The chubby
cherub had climbed down from his mother's lap, and
was foraging about for his picture-book. He found
it, and turning over the pages, suddenly shouted with
infantile glee, ignoring our talk —

"'Daten! 'Daten! "

The little fellow was standing erect, with flashing
eye. ^o longer was he the Divine Child of Bethle-
hem, but rather an infant Hercules, so stout, so stal-
wart did he seem. And again he shouted imperi-
ously —

"'Daten! 'Daten!"

" AVhat does the little chap want? " I asked.

" Ach," said his mother, looking down with pride
upon her child, " it has always been so. I suppose it
is in his blood. My father, you know, was a general.
From the first moment he could observe anything it
was the same. Always 'Daten, 'Date n! Soldaten he
means. Soldiers. Xo picture pleases him so much
as that of soldiers. Always a soldier passing by fas-

GEIiMASY

213

cinates liiin. Thou little rogue,' ' she said, " there is
nothing like soldateii for thee, is it not so^ "

And I felt as she spoke that from the childish lips
the AVord of the Situation had come. All the ele-
ments of the problem were there. I was speaking up
for the Tsar's proposal. She was replying as Europe
has replied, and in the midst of our talk of peace and
our invectives against militarism, the child, the lierr
of the future, interrupts with the cry, '' 'Daten!
'Daten! " Alas, it may now be that once more from
the mouth of the babe and suckling there has fallen the
winged word of truth.

"When in Paris I asked Max Xordau if he believed
there was any possible chance of evoking a genuine,
widespread, passionate protest from the European
masses against the burden of militarism, now for the
first time challenged in the name of humanity in the
name of the Tsar. '" Xo," he replied unhesitatingly,
" not at all." " Why," I asked; " do they not groan
under the burden?" He answered, ''I know inti-
mately the South German peasant. Ask any of them
if they wish for war. ' Gott bewahre! ' they wdll
reply, ^ there is nothing that we hate more.' l>ut
then if you again ask, ' Then you do not love the uni-
form? ' they will sav, ' Oh, that is another matter.
We love the uniform and are proud to wear it. To
protest against war — that is possible; to protest against
the uniform, no, that w^ould not succeed.' "

From which it w^ould seem that the love of soldaten
is not confined to the grandsons of generals. It is a

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214

THE UXITED HTATEH OF ElUtOl'E

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widespread if not a universal fascination. This is not
due to any desire to fight. Much of it, indeed, is due
to a desire to avoid fighting. The corvee of military
serxice, the excessive burden of military expenditure
are l)orne, if not cheerfully, then, at least, stolidly, as
a necessary premium to ensure them against war. It
is a kind of enchantment, as of some malevolent wiz-
ardry, by which peoples, whose only desire is to remain
at peace, p^e persuaded that the only protection against
war is to arm themselves to the teeth.

I spoke on the subject with the leader of the Free
Trade party, who alike as deputy and journalist is free
from all suspicions of militarism, lie expressed in
tlie strongest terms his conviction that no popular
demand existed for a reduction of armaments in Ger-
many. '* Our people," he said, " have gro^vn used to
their military panoply. They do not feel its pressure
as you might think they would. It is part and parcel
of their national existence. They can hardly conceive
life without militarv service, without the uniform.
The best proof of this is that on every occasion when
the question of an increase of armaments has been
put to the people at a general election tluy have always
voted in favor of the increase. Take last election.
There existed, no doubt, a strong feeling against the
increase of the fleet, but when the election was held
any party that had opposed the fleet programme would
have been sM'ept away."

" Your eminent (le])uty forgets," replied a leading
Social Democrat, to whom I had repeated these obser-

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GERMANY

215

vations, " that the Social Democrats have always op-
posed the increase o*^ armaments, and that every gen-
eral election has seen an increase of their total poll.
AVhat he says is true possibly of the lower middle
class, of the trading class, of the higher class. But
of the masses of the population it is not true. The
men upon whom the blood tax falls, the artisan, the
laborer, the peasant, by them militarism is detested.
I wish you could attend our Conference at Stuttgart,
mingle with the delegates, speak with those who are
of the people, and judge for yourself what the mil-
lions of workers think of armaments. As for the in-
crease of the fleet, that was voted on under the clever
management of the Kaiser, who used the Kiao-Chau
incident to overpower the opposition. But no one
would welcome more than the German masses any
diminution in the weight which crushes them to-day."
There is truth in both these opinions. No doubt
the Social Democrats have made continuous protest
against armaments, but their members are themselves
not without pride at having served in the army, and
anything more distant from the Quaker, or Stundist,
or Tolstoian view of military things than that of the
German Social Democrat it would be difficult to im-
agine. Ever since 1808 this German nati(»n has been
passed through the military mill. The habit of mili-
tary service has become a universal family tradition.
Their fathers and their grandfathers before them wore
the uniform. Their sons and their grandsons after
them they expect will wear it. The uniform, in fact,

ill

2ir

THE UMTED STATES OF EUROPE

■ >

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has become a second skin; even the suggestion of peel-
ing it off is almost unthinkable. And as for peace,
the Kaiser but expressed the universal conviction of
his subjects when he said that the besi security for
peace was the sharp sword of the German army.

This may be admitted, and still there may be ample
grounds for welcoming the Congress, and for hoping
that at that international parliament, some short
simj)le measure may be agreed upon that might here-
after come to be regarded by the historian as the line
dividing the watershed of the old era and the new.
All notion of any diminution of the effective strength
of the armed forces of the world must be dismissed at
once as at present absolutely out of the question. Of
disarmament in the sense of even so much as one single
soldier in the armed camp which we call the Continent
disarming himself, laying do^vn his rifle, and tramping
off home, — that is not even to be thought of. To pro-
pose to send that one soldier home might precipitate
the one catastrophe the thought of which is the night-
mare of Europe. But it is possible that the first step
towards better things may be taken at the Conference
in the shape, say, at first, of a proposal to limit the
expenditure on armies and na 'ies for the next five
years to their present maximum, and afterwards, of a
suggestion for the reduction of the term of military
service. The former would be operative at once, and
even if it were in some cases evaded, the mere fact that
such an international agreement had been arrived at
would powerfully strengthen the opposition which in

GERMANY

'>17

and

every country would be made to any further addition
to the naval and military budget. As for the latter,
it would be for the time being a mere pious aspiration.
But it is in the line of a reduction of the period during
which men remain with the colors rather than by any
reduction of the numbers called up that any progress
is likely to be made.

There is no country in Europe where the Tsar's pro-
posal wull be supported with more apparent heartiness
than in Germany. The Kaiser welcomed it with ef-
fusion — and then increased his army by 2G,000 men.
The press, with the curious exception of the Vorwarts,
the Social Democratic organ, and the Preussische
Jahrbucher^ the organ of the Conservative Dr. Del-
briick, praised it with one accord. " Such a philan-
thropic young ruler, such noble aspirations," and so
forth. But after having delivered themselves of the
conventional compliments that are necessary when
the master of many millions proposes anything, the
diplomatists and the journalists shrugged their shoul-
ders, and with astonishing unanimity declared that
" nothing would come of it." And, truly, nothing
can come of it if it is left to them. For these conical
^':eptics would addle even the egg of a phoenix if it
were left to their care.

Germany supports the proposal from considerations
of German interest. It would not do to offend the
Tsar by criticizing harshly a benevolent proposal that
will come to nothing; and then, again, if by a miracle
it did come to anything, it could only improve the

S18

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

' \

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1 :

security of Germany by strengthening the guarantees
for European 2)eace, From a military point of view
Germany never felt herself more absolutely secure.
Tor them there is no more any question of Alsace-Lor-
raine. That is vorbei. The Ireatv of Frankfort has
taken its place among the most stable and unques-
tioned bases of the international law of Europe. Any-
thing, therefore, that gives more stability to the status
quo strengthens Germany, and increases the com-
2:)osure with which she can contemplate perils on her
western frontier. The French General Staff appears
to the Germans to have gone to pieces completely in
the confusion over Dreyfus, and M. Deroulede and his
patriots appear for the moment to be the most effective
allies Germany could desire in keeping guard over
Strasburg and Metz.

So far, therefore, Germany can be relied upon to
support the Tsar, but except in one direction there has
been no sign as yet visible of any desire to give effect-
ive expression to popular sympathy with his object.
The solitary exception is significant. The "Woman's
League for Liternational Disarmament which exists
in Bavaria is endeavoring to bring about in all the
capitals of Europe a simultaneous demonstration by
the women of the Continent in favor of the Tsar's pro-
posal. How the matter \vill be arranged it is as yet
too early to say, or what measure of success may attend
it. But if the International Council of Women were
to desire an opportunity to justify its existence it could
hardly desire a better opening than the present, ^o

GElfMAXY

219

object more worthy of the combined effort of the
womanhood of the world could be imagined than this
of arresting the ever-increasing g;rowth of modern
armaments.

Certain it is that if King Demos does not move, and
if the mothers of the household are indifferent, then
indeed in the future even more than in the present
or the past, the word of the situation will be " 'Daten !
'Daten! " Ever more soldaten!

Berlin, which has been described by Maximilien
Harden as Parvenuopolis, and L regarded by the
Kaiser as the capital of Europe, is in reality the Chi-
cago of the Old World. It has dethroned Vienna as
the capital of the Holy Koman Empire as completely
as Chicago has distanced St. Louis. It now challenges
the supremacy of Paris with all the arrogance and
more than the success with which Chicago has
hitherto disputed the primacy of I^ew York. It is
like Chicago in many things, but most of all in self-
confidence and a lordly disdain for its neighbors and
rivals.

From this central standpoint of the reconstituted
Empire the German looks out upon the !N'ew World
with a sort of indignant surprise. The Intelligence
Department of the Germans is believed to be the best
in the world. Wl; at the German does not know is not
knowledge. And when the recent war began, the
German was quite sure he knew all about the way in
which it would go. His impartiality was not impaired
by any sympathy with the Latin race. He held both

L t

220

THE UNITED f^TATES OF EUROPE

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combatants in equal dislike. Spain had been very
troublesome, boili in Europe and in the Far East.
The United States had by its food products almost
ruined the (ierman landed interest. " A plague on
both your houses." Yet although there was no bias
of affection to deflect the judgment of the scientific
expert, he came to a mistaken conclusion every time.
The naval expert glibly demonstrated with all the con-
fidence of infallibility that the Americans had no
chance with the Spaniards on the sea. Alike in ships,
in guns, in discipline, and in sailors, the Yankees
would be sorely put to it to hold their own against the
Dons. As for the military men, nothing could ex-
ceed their contempt for the United States. " With
40,000 men," it used to be said, "we could invade
America." Ilie improvised army of Volunteers was
a "rabble," and the proposal to rely upon such a
scratch pack of uniformed civilians seemed little short
of high treason to the generals who have devoted their
lives to the elaboration of the German race into a
cast-iron military machin3. It seemed presumption
to question the conclusions of these oracles. They
knew everything; they foresaw e/erything; they had
decided that the non-military Republic would be
sorely put to it to best the military monarchy, and as
they said it, that settled it.

Hence when the war actually broke out, nearly
every German newspaper, excepting the Frankfurter
Zeitung and Die Nation of Berlin, was bitterly, con-
sistently and continuously anti-American. The atti-

GERMANY

001

tilde of the Government was scrupulously correct. It
was absolutely neutral. But the sympathies of the
nation were as immistakably anti-American. This
not only found expression in the press, it made itself
disagreeably felt in the streets and in business. The
America^i felt himself in a hostile atmosphere, and
sometimes it was more than an atmosphere. This
hostility was due to a mingled feeling of resent-
ment, jealousy, envy, contempt, and the antagonism
that is latent between states based on the opposing
principles of liberty and authority, of democracy and
imperialism.

When the v/ar began and every prediction of the
experts was falsified, the Germans felt that something
must have suddenly gone wrong in the constitution of
the universe. They had all backed the wrong horse,
relying upon the selections of their own infallible
prophets, and they felt like losers. It did not sweeten
their tempers, but they soon began to mend their man-
ners. In a dazed kind of fashion they endeavored to
find their bearings, and to regain their equilibrium in
their new and unaccustomed surroundings. Their
first instinct, as that of the drowning man, was to
catch at something, and the flotsam and jetsam of the
Philippines naturally suggested itself. They hurried
their warships to ^fanila with an eye to eventualities,
but the peremptory "Hands off! " from Uncle Sam
gave them pause. Then they suddenly recollected
that they had never thought of such a thing. The
conclusion of peace gave them time to pull themselves

222

Till-] ISITED STATEH OF FA'ROPE

i.t ;

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together, to put on their thinking cap, and to try to
size things up.

And this, so far as can be gathered, is the conclu-
sion they have come to. The German is a practical
man who is determined to make the best of a bad job.
So he is now discovering that the sudden revelation of
the fighting capacity of the Yankee is, perhaps, not
such a bad tiling after all — at least, for Germany. It
may, for instance, lead to embroilment with England,
at the thought of which the German chuckles. Ho
has long warmed his hands at the fire that smoulders
between Russia and England. If another flame were
to spring \^\^ between England and the United States
— well, he would be warmer still.

Then, again, the startling advent of the American
navy on the high seas as a first-class fighting force
supplies the Kaiser with a new and irresistible argu-
ment in favor of adding more ships to the German
navy. It is an ill wind that blows nobody good, and
the disaster that has overwhelmed the Spanish fleets
may be utilized to increase the effective force of the
German navy.

But that is not all. The German practical politician,
who always judges everything by his estimate of the
way it will affect himself without reference to its influ-
ence on his neighbors, eagerly profits by the stimulus
given to colonialism by the appearance of the United
States as a Colonial Power. lie smiles as he thinks
how tie Americans will discover the fallacy of their
fond illusions when they seriously begin to equip

try to

conclu-
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l)ad job.
liition of
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e United
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Sih'iii) II ii,l,t. / . /;, ti'ii,
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rii'Miicr (if I'nissia

/V. liiilii /, Ik ilia

DI!. Vox .Mh,>l i;i,

Virc-1'roiiliMil nf ihr ^l■ll^^iall Ci nil' il ami
Minister nf l^'inain i'

Scldttirn Uilih i\ Jit /tin
I'I{IN( K IlKMtY OK I'lnssiV
BrotluTof tlic (iurinaii Kiii|ieror

Kiliiill uinl Fry
siK 1'. i,AS( i;i,i,Ks
Miilisli Ainliasf^ador at JJitIIh

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*l I

GERMANY

298

navies, maintain armies, and govern distant millions
of dark-skinned races. But that is not his affair.
AVhat he has to do is first to silence the minority in
Germany — that is, against armies and navies and colo-
nies — by making the most of the sudden coming over
of the American nation from a policy of mind-your-
own-business and cultivate-your-own-garden-in-peaco,
to a policy of military, naval, and colonial expansion.
America's casting vote, they say, is now given on the
side of Colonialism and Aggression.

Secondly — and this is perhaps the more important
— the blow dealt at Spain by the United States has put
the Spanish Empire in liquidation. Germany, like
a smart man of business, intends to be in at the sale of
the bankrupt stock. She has no intention of quarrel-
ling with the United States. On the contrary, she
will be effusively friendly. But she intends to have
the first choice in whatever is left of Spain's goods
and chattels after the Americans have had their pick.
There are many trimmings left over after your treaty
of peace is signed. Germany must at any cost acquire
coaling-stations all round the world. Spain has coal-
ing-stations to sell. Germany does not intend to bo
forestalled. She has long had an eye on the Caroline
Islands. There are less probable contingencies than
a deal by which Germany might at a stroke take over
the whole wreck of the Spanish Empire in the Far
East. No one can foresee what kaleidoscopic changes
mav come about in the near future, when the Colonial
possessions of Spain and also of Portugal seem likely

^ " '^5

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224

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

to come upon the market to be knocked down to the
highest bidder.

The present Emperor is unlike his father in most
things, bnt he inherited from his predecessor a haunt-
ing dread of the immense potentialities of the Ameri-
can Commonwealth. This dread, which has hitherto
been chiefly commercial, is now extending to the polit-
ical sphere. The Kaiser has no love for the Monroe
doctrine. If the United States cuts the Xicaragua
Canal, the need for a German coaling-station in the
AVest Indian islands will be imperious. Nor is that
the only possibility of collision between " American-
ism " and Germany. The German colonists are in-
creasing in Southern Brazil. Only the other day one
of them got into trouble for hoisting the German flag,
and his cause has been warmly taken up by his coun-
trymen at home. The Government looks askance at
the enthusiasm which begets societies for the promo-
tion of Germanism in Brazil, foreseeing complications.
]\[r. ]\rcKinley was equally opposed to intervention in
Cuba, but he made the war notwithstanding. The
coyness of Governments is apt suddenly to give way
before the awakened passions of their subjects. If
the German colonists in Brazil revolt and declare their
independence, it will not be a far cry, in the opinion
of eager spirits in Berlin, to the establishment of a
German Protectorate over the German independent
States of South America. And in that case the Mon-
roe doctrine might fail of enforcement unless the
American fleet Avere stronger than that of Germany.

GERMANY

225

The chief and immediate rivahy is not in colonies
but in commerce. In the struggle for the world's
market Germany is badly handicapped by her military
burdens and by the comparative narrowness of her
borders. America she recognizes as her most formi-
dable competitor, and the contest every day becomes
more keen.

The admirable speech made by Mr. White, the
American Ambassador, at Leipsic on July 4th did
much to bring the Germans to their bearings. But
it was significant of much that at that banquet but
for the direct intervention of the Ambassador him-
self no German flag would have been displayed. The
room was draped with Union Jacks and Stars and
Stripes intertwined. But neither German nor Saxon
flag was visible. At the last moment a Saxon flag was

procured, so that the conventions were preserved.
16

I i

CHAPTEK lY

THE MINOR STATES OF EUROPE

rrt

I',

i ^

"When I was in Rome T had the pleasure of enjoying
the hospitality of one of the most modern and least
clerical of Europeans — none other than the famous
JSTorwegian no > elist, poet and political agitator, Bjorn-
stjerne Bjornson, who has taken up his winter quar-
ters next door to the King. If only his Majesty would
replace the last dozen feet of the monstrously high
Avail which shuts out the Quirinal gardens from the
views of his Norwegian neighbor by a trellis or a rail-
ing, M. Bjornson would have no reason to wish to
change quarters with King Plumbert. Eor he has
a charming set of apartments, far above the roar of the
traffic in the street below — apartments which open out
upon a delightful little garden on the roof, where,
under the blue sky of Rome, surrounded by sweet-
scented flowers, the Northern poet can look out upon
the world as from the eyrie of an eagle. The stout
Republican does not find the being next-door neigh-
bors to Royalty altogetlior to his taste. " "We share
the music of the King's band," he said; " that is pleas-
ant enough. Rut the roaring of his lion is less agree-
able. And he is always roaring." The lion, it s'^ems.

THE MINOR STATES OF EUROPE

227

was a gift from King Menelik of Abyssinia to the
King of Italy. It is kept in the garden of the Quiri-
nal, where it is as unhappy as the prisoner in the
Vatican. Day and night the royal brute roars his
unavailing protest to an unheeding world. But the
lion, like his namesake in the Vatican, rages in vain
behind his prison bars.

I had met M. Bjornson for the first time at the
studio of his friend and countryman, M. Ross. lie
was in famous spirits, and full of the very latest idea
that has fascinated this most versatile and quick-witted
of men. M. Bjornstjerne Bjornson is one of the
veterans — ho is half-way between sixty and seventy,
and does not seem more than five and fiftv — in the
campaign for peace. He has contended for arbitra-
tion, for disarmament, for everything, in short, that
makes for progress, even before the Tsar was born.
To him, therefore, more than to most men, the Peace
Rescript was v/elcome. lie was full of interest in all
that I had to tell him about Russia and her ruler, and,
like every one else with whom I have had the oppor-
tunity of speaking on the subject, he rejoiced with
exceeding great joy on hearing how things stood. As,
indeed, he had good cause. For everything that
the friend of peace could hope for is true, and true
to an extent which neither M. Bjornson nor any
one else dared to venture would come true in our
time.

" But, after all " — for even II. Bjornson has a
" but " — " But, after all," he said, " I am not very

I M

238

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

ri ■-

sanguine about the Great Powers. They are one and
all but beasts of prey." I vehemently objected, and,
indeed, considering how the Peace Conference came
to be the great hope of mankind, not without cause,
against such a summary method of classification. But
M. Bjornson paid no heed to my protest. " I am con-
cerned," he went on, " about the smaller States, the
little Powers. What is to come of them at the Con-
ference ? " " What about the little Powers ? " I asked.
" Are you not satisfied that they should have been in-
vited to the Conference? Xever before were the
minor States invited equally with their more powerful
neighbors to such an international assembly." " That
is all very well," he replied, " but it is not enough. I
am anxious to see something more than that. I want
to see the smaller States group themselves together,
so as to act and speak with effect. Each by itself can
do nothing. In a league, or federation, or neutrality,
they might be a very potent influence in international
affairs."

" I entirely agree with you," I replied, " and in Bel-
gium at the very beginning of my tour I repeatedly
wrote and spoke urging upon Belgium the importance
of taking the lead in the matter. It would be a great
opportunity for the King of the Belgians, who has
never heretofore had a wide enough field for the exer-
cise of his statesmanship."

" Do you think,'' said M. Bjornson, " that King
Leopold is the best man to undertake the organization
of the small States?" "Who else would you sug-

THE MINOR STATES OF EUROPE

229

and
and,
jame
ause,

But

con-
i, the

Con-
Lsked.
3n in-
e the
srerful
'That
;h. I
L want
^ether,
ilf can
rality,
itional

Bel-
atedly
rtance

great
10 has
e exer-

King
ization
u sug-

gest?" I asked. "The Queen of Holland is too
young. The King of Denmark is too old. The Presi-
dent of the Swiss Federation is not known well
enough. The King of Portugal has neither the en-
ergy nor the ambition nor tne central position. And
your King, what about him? "

" Why do you think it must be a king? " he asked;
" would not some statesman be even better? " " But
where will you find your statesman?" I answered.
Then M. Iloss broke in. " You have not far to seek ;
you will find him in this very city. There is no man
better than Baron de Bildt, the Minister of Sweden.
He is a statesman of the first rank, a diplomatist, a
scholar, and a man who has all the qualities that you
need."

M. Boss did not exaggerate the capacity of the
statesman he named. Three years Baron de Bildt
declined the Ministerial post offered him by the king,
which is now held by Count Douglass, and although
he is but the representative of a small State, no one
stands higher in the opinion of those who know than
Baron de Bildt. But postponing for the moment the
consideration of the man to do the work, I asked M.
Bjornson what was the work that he wanted him to
do. " I want," said M. Bjornson, " to secure an
understanding among the small States before the Con-
ference meets, so that when the representatives of the
Powers meet, they will find that they arc face to face,
not with a disunited group of powerless little States,
but mth a federation representing 27,000,000 of

230

THE UNITED HTATES OF EUROPE

Europeans, who are determined to act together to se-
cure their safety, and to obtain a guarantee of their
neutrality."

" "What States do you mean? " I asked. From his
reply I have constructed the following table, with the
aid of the " Almanach de Gotha": —

? , !

2
3
4

Population,

Belgium 6,000,000

Denmark 2,000,000

Holland 5,000,000

Portugal 4,700,000

Sweden 5,000,000

Norway 2,000,000

Switzerland 3,000,000

27,700,000

Area in
iiil. car.

Army on

Peace

Footing,

... 29,500 ..

.. 50,000

... 38,000 ..

.. 11,000

... 33,000 ..

.. 29,000

... 89,000 ..

.. 26,000

...450,000 ..

.. 39,000

...322,000 ..

.. 20,000

... 41,000 .,

• •

1,002,500

175,000

I HI

\'^

M. Bjornson refused to regard the Southeastern
States as eligible members for his League of Neutral-
ity. He said they were full of their own ambitions,
and some of them at least were by no means contented
with their frontiers. But it may be worth while not-
ing the statistics of these States, which have equally
been invited to the Conference: —

1 Bulgaria 3,300,000

2 Servia 2,300,000

3 Montenegro 230,000

4 Greece 2,500,000

5 Rouman a 5,500,000

13,830,000

. 94,000
. 48,000
. 9,000
. 65,000
.131,000

.347,000

. 45,000
. 23,500

. 25,000
. 58,000

.151.500

THE MINOR 8TATES OF EUROPE

231

Altogether, the small States represent a population
of 41,000,000, and an army on a peaci .ooting of 320,-
000 men, not reckoning the Swiss and Montenegrins,
every man of whom is trained to arms.

Clearly, the small States may claim to be regarded
as constituting a conglomerate of population equal to
that of any great Power. Their influence in the Euro-
pean Concert, so far, at least, as the Northwestern
States are concerned, would be solely for peace. They
would constitute a most valuable element in the bal-
ance of power. But will they be wise enough to rec-
ognize their common interests and bestir themselves
to make common cause in the Areopagus of the Na-
tions? Time w^ill show. But it Avill not be M. Bjorn-
son^s fault if they do not bestir themselves, and that
without delay.

PART IV

HUSSJA OF THE RESCRIPT

CHAPTER I

AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898

When I was in Berlin, the ]vaiser and his counsel-
lors were making holiday preparatory to the Imperial
tour to the Holy Land. The Kaiser was stag-shooting
in the deer-forests in the extreme east of his dominions.
One of the great events chronicled by the Berlin news-
papers was the shooting of a stag with a greater num-
ber of points on hi", antlers than had ever been secured
as a trophy by any huntsman in Germany for more
than two hundred vears. We w^ere reminded of this
Imperial sport by the decoration at the railway sta-
tions through which we passed immediately before
crossing the Russian frontier.

Russia has changed but little in ten years. One
change there was, and that not a change for the better,
so far as the traveller is concerned. The familiar
German names of the stations had undergone an un-
familiar metamorphosis. Wirballen, the frontier sta-
tion, where the incoming traveller has his first experi-

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THE UNITED STATE l^ OF EUROPE

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ence of the indispensablcness of the passport, is now
Wirballavo, and so on all along the line. The old
familiar names, some of which are branded deep on
the memory of Europe in connection with the ever
memorable retreat from Moscow, have now been dis-
guised past all semblance of their former selves in the
rage for Russofying everything which has been the
fashion for some years past in Musco\y.

In St. Petersburg itself little or nothing seemed to
have changed. There were the old landmarks, the
familiar churches and cathedrals; even the old pave-
ment was much as I had seen it ten years before. The
only change was the improved lighting of the Nevski
Prospect, and the work which is going on all over the
toivn in the laying down of electric mains for the fur-
ther electric lighting of the city. To any electrical
engineer accustomed to the heavy work needed for
laying an electric cable through the streets of an Eng-
lish or American city, the rough-and-ready, happy-go-
lucky fashion in which the electric cable was laid down
in the streets of St. Petersburg would seem little short
of suicidal. They simply dug a long trench in the
soil beneath the uneven cobble-stone surface of the
roadway, uncoiled the electric cable from a huge roll,
laid it in the trench, and then tumbling the loose earth
on the top, restored the cobble-stones as they were be-
fore, when the main was supposed to be laid. There
was a good deal of talk in town of a company for sup-
plying electricity by utilizing the falls of Imatra in
Finland. By this means it was confidently expected

AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898

a85

that in a year or two St. Petersburg would be the best
lighted city on the Continent, and that the slow-mov-
ing trams and familiar droskies would be superseded
by the electric trolley and motor-cars. The costless
drainage of the Finnish wilderness would, it was cal-
culated, enable the Kussians to supply light and force
to the city of Peter the Great at a cheaper rate than
is possible elsewhere in the Old World. There was
one other change noticeable in the droskies. They
are all now fitted with hoods similar to those that fold
backwards in a child's perambulator. The hood does
not cover the drosky, but it is very convenient for the
traveller. While we were in St. Petersburg in Octo-
ber, we had the first foreshadowings of the coming
winter in the shape of a fall of snow which, melting
almost as soon as it fell, did not add to the amenities
of existence.

The Hotel d'Europe was overrun with English and
Americans, chiefly Americans, who had returned from
Siberia, where they had been travelling hither and
thither in search of profitable concessions. They w^ere
all full of praises of the country, especially on account
of its immense agricultural capacities, and some
brought fal)ulous stories as to the richness of the
mineral deposits. Life among the gold-miners of
Siberia seems to be very much like life among the
Argonauts of California in 1849, with the disagreeable
addition of the presence of a great number of convicts,
murderers, and others, who -work fairly well in sum-
mer time at the mines, but who in winter relapse into

r '
I

886

THE UNITED STATEH OF EUROPE

I, I

1 ■ .

homicidal habits and murder for gain to an extent
which casts the worst records of the Wild West into
the shade. The xVmerican prospectors did not, how-
ever, report that they had come upon many plums.
The best locations had been already snapped up,
chiefly by Frenchmen, who were paying prices which
in the opinion of the prudent American and British
speculator, were far in excess of anything justified by
reasonable prudence. On the other hand, the Sibe-
rian holders of good things were all suffering more
or less from " swelled head," and were refusing to part,
except at fabulous prices. They all praised the Gov-
ernment for the generous way in which it encouraged
business enterprise, but expressed great regret that
the Siberian railway could not be pushed forward more
rapidly and worked more expeditiously, for it was
nothing short of a sin to see so many hundreds of tons
of good grain rotting by the wayside for want of roll-
ing stock to carry it away.

The greatest change of all that I noticed in St.
Petersburg was that which had taken place at the Brit-
ish Embassv. When I was last in liussia Sir Robert
Morier was the representative of Her IMajesty at the
Russian Court. The late Lord Derby once told me that
he considered Sir Robert Morier knew more about
European politics than all the rest of the Diplomatic
Corps put together. He was a man who had thrown
himself with all the energy of a very passionate nature
into the study of Russia and tlio Russians. He was a
persona grata with the Emperor and with his leading

j '

AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898

237

St.

iding

Ministers. Despite his somewhat brusque and savage
manner when lie was roused, the Russians liked him
and trusted him, and M. de Giers told me that there
would never be any difiiculties between Russia and
England so long as Sir Robert Morier renuJned at St.
Petersburg. But alas! the place that knew Sir Robert
Morier now knows him no more. Since he reigned
as a kind of British Tsar in the Embassy on the I^eva,
the familiar house near the Troitsky Bridge has seen
three fresh occupants — Sir B. Lascelles, Sir Nicholas
O'Conor, Sir C^harles Scott. The last named, who is
the present occupant of what is perhaps the most re-
sponsible post in the British diplomatic service, is a
newcomer, suddenly pitchforked from Copenhagen to
St. Petersburg. His appointment excited general
surprise, and probably in no place more keenly than
in the breast of Sir Charles Scott himself. The only
explanation that was given was that Sir Charles Scott
had been for some years a colleague of Count Mura-
vieff at the Danish Court, and it was supposed he
would be able to understand the idiosyncrasies of
the Foreign Minister better than anyone who was a
complete stranger. Count ^luravieff's appointment,
which surprised Europe, had as its sequel the appoint-
ment of Sir Charles Scott, which in a smaller way
was equally surprising. Sir Charles is a North of
Ireland man, almost as strong an anti-Home Ruler as
Sir Robert Morier, and equally familiar with the Ger-
man language. He had served with Sir Edward
]\ralet at Berlin, and twenty-two years ago had been

388

THE UNITED (STATES OF EUROPE

. I

I I

1:1

i i

:?! i

11^

attached at the Embassy, under Lord Augustus Lof tus,
in St. Petersburg. He is a well-meaning man with
the best intentions; but it will need a long course of
Russian winters before the frost matures his intellect
so as to give it the keen edge and temper of his pre-
decessor, Sir Robert Morier. The disadvantage of
holding an appointment at a court like Copenhagen
is that it is a kind of diplomatic hibernation, during
which mental alertness, continually stimulated in the
great capitals, is apt to lose its spring.

Count Muravieff, the titular head of the Foreign
Office, whose appointment was generally attributed to
the influence of the Empress-Dowager — an imputation
which that august lady is said to repudiate as a cal-
umny — left Russia immediately before my arrival.
We had met ten years before at the Russian Embassy
in Berlin, when no one anticipated he was destined to
so sudden and remarkable a promotion. We met
again in the hotel at Sebastapol as I was leaving Rus-
sia. He had just returned from his European tour,
and was repairing to Livadia. When I was at Berlin,
an interview with a distinguished Russian diplomatist
appeared in the Tagehlatt. I was confidentially as-
sured that the diplomatist in question was none other
than Count Muravieif, to whose views I naturally
turned with considerable interest. According to this
authority, the Count had declared that England was
the enemy of the pacific aspirations of the Tsar. Eng-
land's motto had ever been to divide and conquer.
Rome in her worst days of Imperial ambition was a

^i'

AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898

239

was
|Eng-

Ivas a

sucking child compared to John BulL So terrible,
indeed, did this ogre appear in the interview, that it
was not surprising to learn that nothing could save
civilization from his fangs but a European coalition
which would draw the teeth and clip the nails of this
continent-devouring monster. When I reached St,
Petersburg I naturally inquired as to the authenticity
of this extraordinary interview. It was, of course,
emphatically disclaimed. Some said that the inter-
viewer had written the interview up to s'.iu the Ger-
man market. Others denied that there had been any
interview at all; but if so, the Tagehlatt must have
been hoaxed, and Count Muravieff had been once
more made the victim of the astonishing series of mis-
conceptions which cause him to be so cruelly misunder-
stood both in Russia and abroad.

I had heard a good deal before I came to Russia of
a ferocious anti-English feeling which found expres-
sion in the St. Petersburg press, and I therefore made
it my business to take the earliest possible opportunity
of making the personal acquaintance of the chief
Anglophobe on the Russian press. I found it was a
case illustrating the old saying, " There is no hate like
love to hatred turned." The journalist in question
had at one time been a great Anglophil, and was still
an enthusiastic student of our literature. But English
foreign policy had been too much for him; and from
loving us he had swept round to detesting us with a
whole heart fervently. He began our interview by
declaring with great emphasis that the Russians were

240

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

, i

p. ^^ 1

jij
1

'^,

^ 1

t '

r <

far too Christian, far too good-liearted, too amiable
and too forgiving, and that therefore it was his duty to
preach always hatred, hatred, hatred of the English!
This was a promising beginning; but when we came
to close quarters, and I ascertained what it was that he
detested so heartily, I found that the sins he hated, I
hated also, and had probably denounced much more
vehemently in England than he had ever done in
Russia. In any case, he was much better informed
and much more sane in his appreciation of the Conti-
nental position than are most Russophobist writers of
the English press against w^hom he may be placed, as
an imfortunate specimen of a journalist whose pen
does not make for friendship and good understanding
between the two nations. There is very nmch of a
muchness bet^\ een the complaints brought by the anti-
English writers in St. Petersburg and the stock accu-
sations of our anti-Russian writers in London. In
fact, the same articles might often do service in both
countries, English being substituted for Russian and
Russian for English, according as they were published
in London or St. Petersburg. Hatred, malice and
uncharitableness find plenty of material on which to
exercise their malevolent activity in the military and
diplomatic achievements of both Empires.

In discussing the causes which led some Russians to
regard England with antipathy, there were many par-
ticulars alleged, Mr. Chamberlain's " long spoon "
speech being mentioned, but it did not occupy as
conspicuous a place as might have been expected.

AT ST. PETERSBURG IX 1S98

241

30th

and
islied

and
cli to

and

oon

?cted.

Speeches, with Russians, always count less than acts.
The appointment of Lord Ciirzon to the Yiceroyalty
of India was regarded as a far more significant illustra-
tion of English hostility to Russia than all the speeches
of all the Russophobists put together. Lord Curzon
stoutly repudiated the imputation of being an enemy
of Russia's on the eve of his departure for India, and
expressed himself in terms of unimpeachable correcti-
tude as to his desire to be on the best terms with his
great Xorthern neighbor. The memory of our breach
of faith in relation to Chitral sticks in the Russiar
memory; but even about this they do not say anything
stronger than was said by those who expressed the
unanimous opinion of the Rosebery Cabinet. About
AYei-LIai-AVei very little was said, it being regarded
as only another instance of the inveterate practice of
England always to look about for an opportunity to
do something disagreeable to Russia.

A very excellent lady in St. Petersburg, who was a
great friend of Prince Lobanoff's, was deploring the
great losses which Russia had sustained in the e:' inc-
tion of that great intellect. " Yes," I said, " great
intellect, no doubt, but he was very hostile to Eng-
land." " And how can any Russian help being hostile
to England," she exclaimed, " when England is always
playing us such nasty tricks? " It was a genuine out-
burst of real feeling, and it probably expresses more
succinctly than any more labored speech the feeling of
Russians concerning our attitude towards them. An
Englishman often does not seem to be happy unless
16

243

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

hfi

' I

he can do an ill turn to a Russian. Sir Howard Vin-
cent, who certainly cannot be regarded as belonging
to the household of faith, who has, indeed, had his
habitation for the most part among the dragons of
Russophobia, was profoundly impressed, when visiting
Russia last year, Avith the universal conviction of the
Russians that wherever they went and whatever they
did, they would always find " the Englishwoman " —
the Anglichanka, the Queen — popping up in order to
thwart and annoy them.

The chief mischief, however, in this as in other
things is done not by the diplomatists, not even by
the Admirals, so much as by the press. If my excel-
lent confreres were forbidden to write a single mali-
cious, suspicious or uncharitable article upon the
action of Russia until they could read, even with the
aid of the dictionary, a single sentence of the Russian
language, there would be very little danger of a dis-
turbance of the good relations between Russia and
England.

Since my last visit, ten years ago, death has made
considerable havoc in the ranks of Russian statesmen.
Very few of those who held portfolios in 1888 were
still in office in 1898. There was, however, an excep-
tion. M. Pobedonostseff, who was Procurator of the
Holy Synod during the reign of Alexander III., is
still holding the same post under Nicholas II. The
position of M. Pobedonostseif is unique. Xo Minister
has held office so long, and no other Minister has pre-
sided over the education of two Emperors. He is also

AT -ST. PETERS BIRO IN 189S

243

dis-
and

lade
^men.

were
Ixcep-
If the
[I., is
The

lister
pre-

Is also

the only Russian Minister who h^.d written books deal-
ing with matters of general interest lying outside his
immediate sphere. Xo Russian Minister is so dis-
tinctively Russian, and at the same time so keenly in-
terested in the doings of the world outside the Russian
frontier. ]\[. Pobedonostseff keeps himself constantly
informed as to the literary, political, and philosophical
movement in the West of Europe. He is a great stu-
dent of English literature; his library table is always
strewn with the latest magazines and newest books that
are issued from London, and no one could be at the
same time more careful to keep himself au courant
with Western thought than the man who, of all others,
may be regarded as the jealous guardian of Russian
orthodoxy against any Western influences. In my
" Truth about Russia '-' I devoted well-nigh sixty pages
to a sustained invective against ]M. Pobedonostseff and
the whole system of ecclesiastic intolerance of which
he is the official exponent. In the course of several
pages I expounded with considerable vehemence the
only conception of the system of the Procurator of the
Holy Synod which was possible to an English IS'oncon-
formist reared in the straitcst traditions of the sect
of which Oliver Cromwell is the patron saint. I had
called M. Pobedonostseff, Torquemada, Diocletian,
and all other kinds of amiable epithets, and, therefore,
I should have had no reason to complain if he had
placed every obstacle in the way of my return to
Russia, or the prosecution of my mission there. So
far from this being the case, I must do M. Pobedonost-

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I ^ i

^11

■ !

1 t

seff the justice of admitting that, instead of resenting
my denunciation of him, he heaped coals of fire upon
my Head by treating me with exceptional kindness' and
consid'^ration. lie invited me to his house at Tsarskoe
Selo, anc I had the privilege of two long conversations
with him apon all manner of subjects, from the latest
fashion in English novels to the persecution of the
Stundists. It was an intellectual treat to sit at the
feet of the Ilussian Gamaliel, even although you were
utterly unable from temperament, education, or en-
vironment to accept hip eloquent vindication of the
necessity for secluding the Russian peasant from the
perils of a heretical propaganda. In his book, " The
Reflections of a Russian Statesman/' M. Pobedonost-
seff surveyed the Eastern World in its later develop-
ments of democratic freedom, and proclaimed aloud
that he found no good in it. From head to foot, the
AV^estern system of modern democracy was full of
wounds and bruises and putrefying sores; there was
no health in it. One hundred years after the out-
break of the French Revolution, the West is more dis-
posed to agree with its Russian mentor than at any
former period.

Two eminent statesmen of England and France
were discussing the other day the sombre picture
which ]M. Pobedonostseff gives in his book of the
decadence of Western democracy. They both agreed
that black as was the picture which the Russian Jere-
miah had painted, each of them could have given him
many points which would have enabled him to make

i i

AT ST. PETERSBURG IN 1898

245

it much blacker. Democracy seen from the inside
seemed to them even more seamy than it appeared to
M. Pobedonostseff from the point of view of the out-
sider. No one can look upon the condition of things
either in France, Austria, or Italy without feeling that
the devil's advocate has got a very strong brief when
he undertakes to plead against what was at one time
the almost universally accepted optimism of the
Liberal.

M. Pobedonostseff represents in Russia the same
kind of sentiment which prevails in most country
vicarages and in rural districts where the parson and
the squire agree in regarding the intrusion of the dis-
senter as a letting loose of one of the plagues of Egypt.
There is much more excuse for M. Pobedonostseff than
there is for the country parson, but their ideas are
identical. Each uses the power which he has to the
best of his ability to preserve the unity of the faith
among the flock intrusted to his care. Both regard
the masses of the people as children from whom as
faithful guardians they must keep the poisonous influ-
ences of schism and heresy. Clerical intolerance in
this country has had its claws clipped and its teeth
drawn. In Eussia that process is still to come, but
it will not come as long as M. Pobedonostseff is to the
fore. He is sti 1 hale and vigorous, and, despite his
seventy years, he is much more hearty than many
English statesmen of sixty. In ten years he did not
reem to have aged in the least. He was quite as free
from the illusions of youth ten years ago as I found

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him last year. It is, perhaps, impossible to expect a
conscl'vati^ e statesman of seventy to share the gen-
erous enthusiasm of youth, but he is by no means of
a hide-bound or unsympathetic disposition. He was
particularly pleased with a charming book on Burma,
the author of which had drawn a much idealized
picture of Buddhism. I also have to acknowledge
that ^I. Pobcdonostseff, by his voluntary and power-
ful initiative, smoothed all difficulties in the way of
my access to the Emperor. AVhen I left Russia in
1888, nothing seemed to me more absolutely impos-
sible than that I should return ten years later and be
indebted to the Tlussian Torquemada for my introduc-
tion to the young Emperor.

In St. Petersburg almost everywhere I found a very
strong feeling against the Armenians. It is a fixed
idea among Russians that England had created the
Armenian difficulty in order to embarrass Russia.
When asked for the grounds of this extraordinary
theory, there was no hesitation in supplying the data
upon which this superstructure had been reared. It
must be admitted that they were much more substan-
tial than most of the foundations on which national
jealousy builds a superstructure of falsehood. The
Russians began by pointing out that the Armenian
difficulty owes its existence to the intervention of Eng-
land at the Berlin Conference. If Lord Beaconsfield
and Lord Salisbury had left the Treaty of San Stef ano
alone, Russia would have had a treaty right and
an assured position for protecting the Armenians

1 I

AT ST. PETERHBIRO IX 1898

247

ta
It

ans

against the Turks. Instead of permitting Russia to
discharge the responsibilities she had undertaken,
England interfered, cancelled the Russian guarantee,
and superseded it by an ineifective international
undertaking on the plea that everything relating to
Turkey was a European concern, and that it was con-
trary to the Treaty of Paris to make single-handed
bargains with the Sultan as to the reform of any part
of his empire. At the same moment that England
was mutilating the Treaty of San Stefano on this pre-
text, she was concluding secretly a convention with
Turkey by which she placed herself in an exceptional
position by a separate agreement with the Ottoman
Empire in virtue of which she was allowed to occupy
Cyprus. From that time, they maintain, England
has done nothing but foment discontent in Armenia,
knowing that it would make trouble for Russia. Eng-
land, they say, operated through the American mis-
sionaries who educated the Armenians in their schools,
filled them with political aspirations, and provoked
the insurrectionary movement which brought about
the atrocities. If you object that this was done by
Americans and not by British, they reply that the
Americans and English work together in Asia Minor
like right and left hands. The American missionary
stirs up the trouble and the British Consul protects
him. But for these two agencies the Armenians would
never have provoked the reprisals which made the
world shudder. By thus forcing the Armenian ques-
tion to the front, England placed Russia in a disagree-

!- I I

-,/

248

THE UMTED STATES OF EXJROVE

h !

i. I

hill:

able dilemma. The Armenians wished to form an
Armenian principality like Bulgaria, with the avowed
object of working for the unification of Armenia, even
at the cost of the dismemberment of the Russian Em-
pire. In the Caucasus the Russian administration is
practically in the hands of the Armenians. The
Armenian, who is extremely cbver, not very scrupu-
lous, and who liai." considerable political faculty, has
monopolized the administration. At present he is
prosperous and fairly content, but he cherishes aspira-
tions after the revival of a great Armenian kingdom
somewhat similar to those which the Poles cherish for
the revival of the kingdom of Poland. To create an
independent Armenia in Asia ]\Iinor would be to set
up a standard round which to rally all the Armenian
subjects of Russia. The prospect of establishing this
centre of Armenian nationality was certainly not an
inducement calculated to encourage Russian states-
men to face the risk of intervention in Turkey. The
creation of an Armenian nat^'onality also was a difficult
question, because the Armenians are so mixed up with
the Kurds, that if the Turkish authority were elimi-
nated from Armenia, and no foreign force introduced,
the result would be, not an independent and self-gov-
erning free Armenia, but a province in which the
Armenians would be harried to the bone by the domi-
nant Kurd, who for centuries has regarded the Ar-
menian very much as wolves regard sheep. If any-
thing useful were to be done in Armenia for liberty
and the protection of life and property of the luckless

AT .sr. PETERSIlVliO IS 1898

249

u\rmenlaiis, it could only be done by the introduction
of an adequate military force, and Russia was the only
Power from which such a force could come. But the
Russians, who remember what the Austrians had to
face in Bosnia, vehemently resisted the suggestion that
they should undertake the pacificatiori of Armenia.
The mere fact that it was favored in England led them
to suspect that it was a trap, and they regarded the
suggestion that they should pacify Armenia as an
unmasking of the English design to weaken ind em-
barrass Russia by encouraging her in a profitless and
costly enterprise which would waste her resources and
divert her energies. Armed intervention in Armenia
involved the risk of war. Russia had enough war in
1877 to last her for the rest of this century. To jus-
tify their reluctance to embark upon the Armenian
Crusade, they fell back upon all manner of pretexts.
The Armenians, for instance, were not Greek Ortho-
dox, neither were they Slavs. Russia formerly used
to defend the cause of Christians of the East regard-
less of nationality or of race. But she had grown
wiser with painful experience; she was no longer to
be the champion of the Christian East. France and
Germany could, if they chose, wrangle for the right
of the protectorate of the Roman Catholics, but Russia
would stick to the Orthodox, and not only to the Ortho-
dox, but to the Slavonic Orthodox. As for the Arme-
nians, they were very well capable of taking care of
themselves. The Russians know the Armenians, and
do not like them. There is a saying which the Bus-

1
l: ..V

I, ,1

250

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

sians are never tired of repeating, that it takes two
Greeks to swindle a Jew, two Jews to cheat the devil,
but it takes two devils to cheat an Armenian; from
which it would seem that the intellectual capacity of
the Armenian in matters of cheating or being cheated
is very highly appraised by those who have most to do
with them. Whatever the cause, or whatever the pre-
text, there is no question about the fact that the Arme-
nians of all races under the sun seem to be least in
favor at St. Petersburg. ^N'evertheless, many Rus-
sians felt very keenly and expressed very frankly the
shame and indignation with which they regarded
Prince Lobanoff 's policy in dealing with the Armenian
question. The massacres in Constantinople brought
this home very forcibly to the Russian conscience, and
no one would be better pleased than the best Russians
if the happy termination of the Cretan question re-
sulted in the adoption of a more vigorous policy in
dealing with Turkish misrule in Asia Minor.

My stay in Russia was much too brief for me to at-
tempt any study of the currents beneath the surface,
especially those among the young men in the univer-
sities. At the same ^ ine, going in and out in St. •
Petersburg society, it was impossible to turn a deaf
oar to what you heard on every side — namely, that the
students in St. Petersburg universities are all more or
less in sympathy with the Socialism of Karl Marx in
one or other of its forms. Of Nihilism you heard
little or nothing. There were some who shook their
heads gravely when (questioned on the subject; and

AT ST. PETERSBVRO 7.V 1898 U51

the opinion was frequently expressed, especially
among Amerieans, that the growth of great industrial
communities in Southern Russia and in the neighbor-
hood of the capital boded anything but good for the
future tranquillity of the Empire. For the present
howeyer, the chief social danger was not in the growth
of revolutionarj' discontent so much as in the recur-
rence of periods of great distress, which occasionally
as at present in certain districts in the Southeast
Iroymces, may almost attain the dimensions of a
famine.

CHAPTER II

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

Russia, although a country of immense resources,
which have as yet been very imperfectly developed,
is, nevertheless, a country of poor men and poor
women. There are a few individuals of very great
wealth, there are many foreign companies developing
the mineral and other resources of the country, and
earning for their fortunate shareholders dividends that
sometimes attain the noble dimensions of thirty-five
and forty per cent.; but the great mass of the 129,-
000,000 of population over whom the Tsar reigns as
a kind of terrestrial Providence are very poor, and are
only able to provide their daily bread from year's end
to year's end by a life of hard industry, which, were
it not for the combined influences of the weather and
the Church, would be unremitting. The population,
though poor, is frugal and prolific. It is increasing
at the rate of two millions per annum. In 1910 the
Russian people will have reached 150,000,000; be-
tween 1930 and 1940, 200,000,000; and at the end
of the twentieth century there will be in all probability
300,000,r 00 Russians. The difference in density be-
tween the populations of Western Europe and of Rus-

sources

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•I

THE PEACE RESCRirT

253

sia is decreasing every day. It is true that the last
census gives to Kussia in Europe only 51 inhabitants
per square mile, while in France there arc 183, in
Germany 235, in England 316, in Belgium 518. But
to find this average immense deserts in the north and
south are included. In the habitable districts a much
higher average is attained — 90 to 114 in Muscovy, 181
to 194 in Poland, 194 to 207 in the greater portion
of the basin of the Dnieper. The birth-rate and death-
rate are both phenomenally large (births 45 per 1,000,
as against 30 in England and 22 in France), but the
balance of life over death is two millions a year (death-
rate 31 per 1,000, as against 19 in England). It is
well for Europe that Russia has so immense a back-
country, with territory all pegged out, in which her
ever-swelling population can find maintenance. Noth-
ing seems more obvious to the plain man, looking over
the jealousies of nations, than the curious way in which
people ignore serious dangers and alarm themselves
about the very things which should minister to their
sense of security. Take, for instance, this matter of
the so-called Russian danger; the alarmist looks at the
map, sees the whole of Eastern Europe and of i!^orth-
ern Asia labelled Russia, and ho at once works him-
self into a fidget as to the menace to tlie world implied
in the allocation of so large a portion of its surface to
the Russian race. But for the thousand persons who
lie awake at night haunted by the extent that Russia
bulks on the map, is there even one who spares a
thought as to the one really serious fact in the situa-

L 'I

354

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

tion — namely, the balance of Russian births over Rus-
sian deaths every twelve months? The advent of an
invading army of two millions of future Russian citi-
zens every twelve months upon the surface of this
planet is surely a phenomenon infinitely more por-
tentous than the acquisition by Russia of an ice-free
port, or the rounding out of her frontiers in the heart
of Central Asia. If that fact were duly kept in mind,
the expanse of her territory would sink into its proper
place as an element of reassurance. For a nation of
129,000,000 that is increasing at the rate of two mil-
lions per annum assuredly needs a continent in which
to stretch itself. If the birth-rate rules the future,
then the future is Russia's, hands down. Not even a
death-rate nearly double that ^f Sweden can deprive
her of that pride of place which enables her to distance
even prolific Germany and the large-familied English.
Fortunately she has all Siberia to people, and that
immense expanse will for a century to come be cap-
able of absorbing all the overflow of European Russia.
The total population of Siberia at last census was only
5,731,000. If for a moment we sever ourselves from
the baleful infatuations of Russophobia, it is obvious
that the great enemy is the Russian cradle, not the
Russian army, and until you can provide against the
rapid refilling of the cradle, all the diplomatic and
militarv victories that can be scored off the Northern
Colossus are but written in water.

It is no doubt this fact, the social fact, the increase
of mouths to feed, and the uncertainty of being able

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

255

ease
able

to feed them, which is the real motive at the back of
the Rescript. Russia, in the opinion of her sane and
sober rulers, is not rich enough to go on wasting in-
definitely her resources in expenditure on armaments.
They are in charge of a vast undeveloped estate, and
they want every penny that can be spared or that they
can borrow for the development of that estate, not for
the carrying on of lawsuits with neighbors across the
fence. Russia, according to this year's budget, pro-
poses to devote forty millions sterling to the construc-
tion of railways, a sum six millions in excess of the sum
demanded by the Ministry of War. Her railways,
it is asserted by those who display the most pestilent
ingenuity in devising pretexts for making themselves
miserable, are all strategic military railways. They
are strategic, no doubt; they are a part of a great
strategic campaign which mankind is ever fighting
against hunger, destitution, and barbarism. In one
sense, every railway, even that supreme product of
British civilization the London, Chatham and Dover
Railway, is a military line ; it connects the capital with
the dockyards of Chatham and the military port of
Dover. It is much more of a military line than the
great Siberian Trunk Overland Railway, which the
Rus lans are pushing on with such splendid energy for
the development of the great waste continent which
Avithout a railway would continue waste. In the solu-
tion of the social question, which means the ameliora-
tion of the condition of the great masses of the human
race, nothing could be more desired than that military

256

THE UNITED tiTATES OF EUROPE

U .

:l 1

empires should spend their resources in the making of
railways rather than the building of ironclads. In-
deed, it may be regarded as the latter-day equivalent
of the prophecy of the old Hebrew, who, had he lived
in these days, would not have talked about beating
swords into ploughshares and the spear into pruning-
hooks, but would assuredly have predicted as the mark
of the Golden Age the transfer of credits from the
Ministry of War to the Ministry of Ways and Com-
munications, and regarded as the distinctive mark of
the coming of the Kingdom of Peace the conversion
of the money intended for quick-firing artillery into
the purchase of locomotives and the laying down of a
permanent way.

The original genesis of the Peace Rescript may be
traced back for at least eight years. At Lord Salis-
bury's instance seven years ago a confidential State
paper M^as prepared, in which the actual co^t of mili-
tarism in Europe was set forth in detail. It was
shown, for example, that during the six years ending
in 1888 no less a sum than £974,715,802 was spent by
France, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Great Britain,
Russia, Spain and Italy for military and naval pur-
poses alone. The memorandum embodying this and
other not less striking facts was originally prepared
for the exclusive use of the Cabinet; but Lord Salis-
bury communicated it to the Emperor of Germany,
who was so impressed by it that he privately intimated
his intention of summoning a European Congress " to
consider practical measures for assuring universal

I 1 i I ii

iin,

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

'j57

peace." As a preliminary the semi-official Gerraan
press was instructed to ventilate the question, aid it
will oe remembered that the summer of 1891 was
largely occupied with this press campaign. The
scheme met with a very unfavorable reception in
I ranee, where, as now, it was urged that the question
of Alsace-Lorrrixie stood in the way of any ideas of
disarmament. Thereupon the German Emperor
abandoned it, and the subject dropped for some years.
One of the last statements made by Mr. Gladstone
before he quitted office was to assure Mr. Byles, on
February 11th, 1894, that he doubted whether the
moment was opportune for initiating negotiations
among other European Powers with a view to con-
certed disarmament. About the same time Madame
Novikoff ^vrote an earnest appeal in the Westminster
Gazette in favor of something being done for the relief
of Europe from the ever-increasing burden of arma-
ments. Hardly two months later I stated in the pages
of the Review of Reviews that I had " private intelli-
gence from a sure source t' it the Emperor is giving
his closest attention to the question as to whether some-
thing cannot be done to relieve the intolerable burden
of military expenditure." M. de Blowitz had already
reported a conversation between the King of Denmark
and a Spanish statesman, in which the Danish King
was reported as saying: —

" I hope to live long enough to see Europe enter upon the
pathway of military retrenchment, and to behold the sov-
ereigns of Europe taking measures to protect their people

258

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

against the constantly increasing burden of military ex-
penditure.

" My dear son-in-law, the Tsar of Russia, whose mission
consists in maintaining peace, is quite ready to enter upon
this pathway, and my great and good friend, the Emperor
of Austria, is equally disposed to do his utmost towards that
end."

He had not ventured, he said, to speak to the Kaiser,
for a young sovereign is always dreaming of winning
new laurels.

In the Review of Reviews of ]\Iay 15th I formally
}3ressed the question whether the time had not come
for the people collectively to take a stand against the
steady increase of armaments, and suggested that the
true line to take was to seek an international agree-
ment by which the Powers should bind themselves not
to allow their military and naval budgets to pass be-
yond their present limits, at least till the end of the
century. I wrote : —

The whole social question is bound up in this. Were it
possible for the great Powers not merely to agree to arrest
the growth of their military and naval expenditure, but to
reduce it all round, say by 10 or 20 per cent., there would be
liberated a fund available for the purposes of social improve-
ment which would in the course of a few years transform
the whole social position. At present everything is blocked
because there is no cash. . . . It is the responsibility of
the English democracy to take the initiative in promoting
if possible a simultaneous reduction of armaments all along
the line. It is understood that the Tsar is earnestly desirous
of moving in this direction as soon as the opportunity offers.

The Arbitration Alliance agreed to take up the mat-

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

259

ter in this country. The first public initiative in the
matter was taken by a Conference of the representa-
tives of all the Free Churches, which was held at the
Friends' Meeting House, Devonshire Street, April
17th. By this Conference an address was drawn up,
from which the following is an extract : —

There are abundant signs that throughout Europe the feel-
ing of general unrest and almost of despair under the bur-
dens of militarism is giving place to a growing hope in the
possibility of a pacific issue from the present situation. The
views of M. Jules Simon and others have awakened a wide
response upon the Continent, alike from the highest and the
humblest quarters. As professed followers of the Prince of
Peace we cannot be silent at this juncture. We believe that
in urging upon Her Majesty's Government in the name of
Christianity the duty of availing themselves of the present
opportunity, we are asking for a course of action which is
in harmony with all that is noblest in our country's history.

There is a widespread belief that the initiative can be best
taken by Her Majesty's Government. The neutral policy of
this country, the smallness of her offensive armaments, her
insular position, the commanding personal influence of Her
Majesty and the friendly relations in which she finds herself
with all the European Powers, appear to give her a unique
opportunity, and to impose upon her in this matter a unique
responsibility. While not presuming to suggest the precise
line of action which may be expedient, we desire earnestly
to ask Her Majesty's Government to propose to the other
Powers the adoption of some practical step designed to pro-
mote the internati -nal reduction of armaments and the
establishment of some permanent system of International
Arbitration.

We are aware of the practical difficulties that may lie in
the way of action. But we have every confidence that, in
considering this momentous question, Her Majesty's Govern-
ment will approach it in the spirit of greatness proper to the

260

THE UXITED FiTATEH OF EUROPE

great purpose In view and to the high influence which, under
the blessing of God, England may exercise in the promotion
of international peace.

The following national Memorial was then drawn
up for presentation to the British Government ; —

The continuous and unchecked growth of European arma-
ments has now reached a point which necessitates some
concerted action to secure relief. The pressure of military
and naval expenditures threatens States with bankruptcy,
cripples the industries and impoverishes the homes of the
people, and diverts to wasteful preparation for slaughter
funds that would otherwise be available for purposes of
social amelioration and reform.

This ruinous rivalry in armaments is the inevitable, al-
though deplorable, result of the absence of any international
understanding. It can only be arrested by an international
agreement.

We would, therefore, respectfully but earnestly suggest
that communications should be opened with the European
Powers, in order to ascertain whether it may not be possible
as a first step towards arresting the further growth of na-
tional armaments, and reducing burdens already almost
intolerable, to secure a common and general agreement that,
until the close of the century, no State will sanction any
increase of its military and naval expenditure beyond the
maximum of the estimates of the present year.

As France is the chief and, indeed, almost the only-
source of danger to the peace of Europe, I asked M.
Jules Simon what, in his opinion, would be the line of
France on this subject. He wrote : —

Senate, Paris, May 9th, 1894.
You wish to ask me if France would be disposed to enter
into an international agreement having for its end the arrest

TUE PEACE RESCIUPT

261

of any increase of military or naval expenditure until 1900?
I answer tliat I have not the least doubt of it.

If there were any difficulty, it could only be in the case of
the navy, as it is necessary to incur expense for repairs in
order to prevent the decay of the ships. No one thinks of
an augmentation of force. It will be, I repeat, very easy to
come to an understanding upon this point. I believe that
France would enter with empressement on the path of a
diminution of expenses. We have not to fear the fate of
Italy, but there is a general indignation against tha ex-
penditure which the armed peace entails. France is not at
all for war.

It is horrible to think that one is journeying every day
towards the universal war which will be the cataclysm of
history, and no one wishes it. The Emperor of Germany
said to me himself that he would regard whoever forced on
war as a criminal.

I return to your question, and I reply with energy that
France ijassionately desires peace, and that she would sup-
port every attempt in that direction which would not
threaten her honor or compromise her security. — Pray ac-
cept, etc., ,

Jules Simon.

This Memorial, which commanded the sympathy of
the leaders of both political parties, secured the enthu-
siastic support of the representatives of labor, of reli-
gion, and of our municipalities. It was signed by
the official heads of almost every religious denomina-
tion with one exception. His Grace the Archbishop
of Canterbury was, unfortunately, not able to see his
way to take part in the Memorial. This was not, of
course, due to any lack of sympathy with its object,
only to a disinclination due probably to his position to
help those who are endeavoring by this means to place
some limitation to the intolerable burdens of modern

262

THE UNITED STATEf^ OF EUROPE

armaments. This, however, did not deter the Primate
of Scotland and the Bishops of Durham, Ripon, Man-
chester, Lichfield and Worcester from appending their
names to the Memoriah

Among the eighty members of Parliament who
signed it Mr. Balfour was the most conspicuous. But
the ]\rinisters of the Front Bench were equally syni-
l)athetic, altliough, of course, they could not sign a
Memorial addressed to themselves.

The *'ollowing letter, which Mr. Balfour addressed
to Mr. ?v[ark Stewart, ]\r.P., who asked him to sign the
Memorial, expresses the attitude of statesmen or both
sides of the House : —

4 Carlton Gardens, June 22nd, 1894.
Dear Mark Stewart, — I, in common, I believe, with other
persons who have considered the subject, see clearly the
deep-seated evils which flow from the gigantic military ex-
penditure in which every Government in Europe is involved.
I need not say that I shall be glad to assist in any practical
policy which seems likely to remedy or mitigate the disease.
The object therefore of tne Arbitration Alliance has • ly
hearty sympathy. — Yours very truly,

Arthur James Balfour.

It Avas signed l)y the Lord Mayors of London, York,
and Dublin, the Lord Provosts of Edinburgh and Dub-
lin, and the mayors of about fifty boroughs. Most of
our distinguished men of letters, headed by Mr. Her-
bert Spencer, signed the Memorial, which received
altogether nearly 35,000 signatures.

AVhile the Memorial was still in course of signature,

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

263

but acting under the inspiration of the movement of
which it was the visible outcome, Lord llosebery com-
municated with M. de Stael on the subject, suggesting
the desirability of the initiative in this matter being
taken by the Tsar. Hence, as the ^Yestminster
Gazette remarks, " the Tsar's proposal may fairly be
called a British one. A very few years ago a British
Prime Minister suggested to the Government of St.
Petersburg that a conference for a stay of armaments
or the reduction of armaments should be sunnnoned,
and that the right person to summon it was the Tsar
of Russia. The suggestion was cordially received,
but it was intimated that the time was hardly oppor-
tune." The inopportuneness arose from the outbreak
of the war between China and Japan. The death of
Alexander III., nowhere so sincerely lamented as at
^he British Foreign Office, put a stop to further
discussion.

When the ^Memorial was complete. Lord Kimberley
was asked to receive a deputation from the Arbitration
Alliance in support of its prayer. He returned a
coldly courteous refusal on the ground that the mo-
ment was not propitious. ^1. Witte, the Russian
Finance Minister, visited Vienna about the same time,
and took advantage of the occasion to make a declara-
tion on the subject which may be recalled with advan-
tage to-day. He said: —

It is to be regretted that the increase of armaments is still
going on, despite the agreement on the part of the three
most powerful sovereigns to maintain peace. Every now

,(i

264

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

effort a State may make in this respect compels other States
to go and do likewise, and the result is that the relations
between the forces of the respective Powers remain as they
were, while the general strength is fruitlessly exhausted.
The impulse to the increase of the armaments did not ema-
nate from Russia; but she cannot avoid following the im-
perative example of other States. What a blessing it would
be for all States if they could save half that expenditure!

There the matter remained; war rather than peace
became the watchword of Europe — and not of Europe
only. The War Budgets of Britain, Russia, and the
other Powers swelled every vear. Had the truce or
halt been cried in 1894 it would have saved the British
taxpayer several millions a year.

This may be regarded as having ended the first or
preliminary movement in favor of international action
for the stay of armaments. It was not till 1896 that
the movement received a fresh start. In that year the
Interparliamentary Conference of Peace, an associa-
tion of comparatively recent origin, which has Mr. W.
R. Cremer as its indefatigable secretary, met in Pesth.
M. Basili, who is now the chief of the Asiatic depart-
ment in the Russian Foreign Office, attended some of
its meetings, took a deep interest in its proceedings,
and reported to his Government strongly in favor of
action in stay of armaments. His suggestion was not
received with approval by his official superiors, and it
remained for a time in aoevance.

Then came a notable utterance which attracted but
little attention at the time, but wliicli can now be seen
to have an important place in the evolution of the Re-

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

266

script. Speaking at the Mansion House on iSTovember
9th, 1897, the j\Iarqiiis of Salisbury, after referring to
the ever-increasing competition of the nations in arma-
ments, said: —

The one hope that we have to prevent this competition
from ending in a terrible effort of mutual destruction —
which will be fatal to Christian civilization^ — the one hope
that we have is that the Powers may gradually be brought
together to act together in a friendly spirit on all subjects
of difference that may arise, until at last they shall be
welded together in some International Constitution which
shall give to the world, as the result of their great strength,
a long spell of unfettered commerce, prosperous trade, and
continued peace.

After this .\I. Basili again renewed his representa-
tions in favor of an attempt to arrive at an inter-
national agreement on the subject. lie was now
established in the Foreign Office, and the suggestion
commended itself to Count LamsdorfP. He submitted
the proposal to the Emperor, who adopted it with en-
thusiasm, and after a short time we had the Rescript.

The secrets of the Russian Foreign Office are well
preserved, and when the Ambassadors and ^^Einisters
accredited to the Russian Court attended the usual
weekly reception at the Foreign Office on Wednesday,
August 24tli, not one of them had the faintest inkling
of the surprise that was awaiting him.

As each Ambassador entered the room, Count
Muravieff took a paper i lom a pile ready on his table
and handed it to the visitor, who ran his eve over it
with some astonishment. The representatives of all

!t1

266

THE UNITED i^TATES OF EUROPE

the small States who were present also received copies
of it in their turn.

In forwarding this document to Lord Salisbury, Sir
Charles Scott, Her Majesty's Ambassador in St.
Petersburg, wrote in his dispatch of August 25th: —

Count Muravieff ;jegged me to remark hat this eloquent
appeal, which he had drawn up at the dictation of the Em-
peror, did not invite a general disarmament, as such a pro-
posal would not have been likely to be generally accepted
as a practical one at present, nor did His Imperial Majesty
look for an immediate realization of the aims he had so
much at heart, but desired to initiate an effort the effects
of which could only oe gradual.

Hisi Excellency thought that the fact that the initiative
of this peaceful effort was being taken by the Sovereign of
the largest military Power, with resources for increasing its
military strength unrestricted by Constitutional and Par-
liamentary limitations, would appeal to the hearts and in»-
telligence of a very large section of the civilized world, and
show the discontented and disturbing classes of society that
powerful military Governments were in sympathy with their
desire to see the wealth of their countries utilized for pro-
ductive purposes rather than exhausted in a ruinous and,
to a great extent, useless competition for increasing the
powers of destruction.

I observed, in reply, that it would be difficult to remain
insensible to the noble sentiments which had inspired this
remarkable document, which I would forward at once to
your lordship, and I felt sure that it would create a profound
impression in England.

The 1 mperial Rescript was made known to the world
b}' a Keutor's telegram dated St. Petersburg, August
27th. The Official Messenger published the follow^-
ing: —

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

2u7

OW-

By order of the Tsar, Count Muravieff, on August 24th,
handed to all the foreign representatives accredited
to the Court of St. Petersburg, the following com-
munication: —

" The maintenance of general peace and a possible re-
duction of the excessive armaments which weigh upon all
nations present themselves in the existing condition of the
whole world, as the ideal towards which the endeavors of
all Governments should be directed.

" The humanitarian and magnanimous ideas of His
Majesty the Emperor, my august master, have been won
over to this view. In the conviction that this lofty aim is in
conformity with the most essential interests and the legiti-
mate views of all Powers, the Imperial Government thinks
that the present moment would be very favorable to seeking,
by means of international discuss;on, the most effectual
means of ensuring to all peoples the benefits of a real and
durable peace, and, above all, of putting an end to the
progressive development of the present armaments.

" In the course of the last twenty years the longings for a
general appeasement have grown especially pronounced in
the consciences of civilized nations. The preservation of
peace has been put forward as the object of international
policy; it is in its name that great States have concluded
between themselves powerful alliances; it is the better to
guarantee peace that they have developed in proportions
hitherto unprecedented their military forces, and still con-
tinue to increase them without shrinking from any sacrifke.

" All these efforts nevertheless have not yet been able to
bring about the beneficent results of the desired pacification.
The financial charges following an upward march strike at
the public prosperity at its very source.

" The intellectual and physical strength of the nations,
labor and capital, are for the major part diverted from their
natural application, and unproductively consumed. Hun-
dreds of millions are devoted to acquiring terrible engines of
destruction, which, though to-day regarded as the last word
of science, are destined to-morrow to lose all value in con-
sequence of some fresh discovery in the same field.

268

THE UNITED iSTATEIS OF EUROPE

" National culture, economic progress, and the production
of wealth are either paralyzed or checked in their develop-
ment. Moreover, in proportion as the armaments of each
Power increase, so do they less and less fulfil the object
which the Governments have set before themselves.

" The economic crises, due in great part to the system of
armaments d Voutrance, and the continual danger which lies
in this massing of war material, are transforming the armed
peace of our days Into a crushing burden, which the peoples
have more and more difficulty in bearing. It appears evi-
dent then that if this state of things were prolonged it would
Inevitably lead to the very cataclysm which it is desired to
avert, and the horrors of which make every thinking man
shudder in advance.

" To put an end to these incessant armaments and to seek
the means of warding off the calamities which are threaten-
i. g the whole world, — such is the supreme duty which is to-
day imposed on all States.

" Filled with this idea, His Majesty has been pleased to
order me to propose to all the Governments whose repre-
sentatives are accredited to the Imperial Court, the meeting
of a conference which v/ould have to occupy itself with this
grave problem.

" This conference would be, by the help of God, a happy
presage for the century which is about to open. It would
converge in one powerful focus the efforts of all the States
which are sincerely seeking to make the great conception of
universal peace triumph over the elements of trouble and
discord.

" It would, at the same time, cement their agreement by
a corporate consecration of the principles of equity and right
on which rest the security of States and the welfare of
peoples."

Mr. Balfour, then temporarily in charge of the
Foreign Office, replied on August 30th: —

As the Prime Minister is abroad and the Cabinet scattered,
it is impossible for me at present to give any reply, but I feel

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

260

confident that I am only expressing the sentiments of my
colleagues when I say that Her Majesty's Government most
warmly sympathize with and approve the pacific and eco-
nomic objects which his Imperial Majesty has in view.

The comments of the European press sliov/cd a
tendency to misconstrue the meaning of the Emperor.
Consequently on Sunday, September 4th, the follow-
ing official communication appeared in the Journal
de Saint Petersbourg : —

All the utterances of the foreign press regarding the Cir-
cular of the 24th ult. agree in testifying to the sympathy
with which the action of the Russian Government has been
received by the whole world. A high tribute of acknowledg-
ment is paid to the noble and magnanimous conception
which originated this great act. The unanimity of welcome
proves in the most striking manner to what a degree the
reflections, which lay at the root of the Russian proposal,
corresponded with the innermost feelings of all nations and
their dearest wishes.

On all sides people had come to the conclusion that con-
tinuous armaments were a crushing burden to all nations,
and that they constituted a bar to the public prosperity.
The most ardent wish of the nations is to be able to give
themselves up to peaceful labor, looking calmly to the
future, and they perceive clearly that the present system of
armed peace is in its tendency peaceful only in name.

It is to the excesses of this system that Russia desires to
put an end. The question to be settled is without doubt a
very complicated one, and some organs of public opinion
have already touched on the difficulties which stand in the
way of a practical realization. Nobody can conceal from
himself the difliculties, but they must be courageously con-
fronted.

The intention of the Circular is precisely to provide for a
full and searching investigation of this question by an

270

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

international exchange of views. Certain other questions
difficult of solution but of not less moment have already
been settled in this century in f, manner which has done
justice to the great interests of humanity and civilization.
The results which in this connection have been obtained at
international conferences, particularly at the Congresses of
Vienna and Paris, prove what the united endeavors of Gov-
ernments can achieve when they proceed in harmony with
public opinion and the needs of civilization.

The Russian proposal calls all States to greater effort than
ever before, but -* will redound to the honor or humanity
at the dawn of the twentieth century to have set resolutely
about this work that the nations may enjoy the benefits of
peace, relieved of the overwhelming burdens which impede
their economic and moral development.

There the matt or remained for some time. When
I was in St. Petersburg at the end of September, I was
told tliat all the Poivers save Great Britain and, I
think, one other had replied. Lord Salisbury, who
had then been a fortnight in London, had made no
sign. The Daily Neivs remonstrated. The British
public began to express its sentiments in the usual way
by public meetings and resolutions. But it was not
until October 24th that the British Government for-
mally accepted the Tsar's invitation. On that day
Lord Salisbury wTote as follows to Sir Charles Scott,
the British Minister at St. Petersburg: —

Her Majesty's Government have given their careful con-
sideration to the memorandum which was placed in your
hands on August 24th last by the Russian Minister for
Foreign Affairs, containing a proposal of His Majesty the
Emperor of Russia for the meeting of a conference to discuss
the most elective methods of securing the continuance of

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

271

general Peace, and of putting some limit on the constant
increase of armaments.

Your Excellency was instructed at the time by Mr, Bal-
four, in my absence from England, to explain the reasons
which would cause some delay before a formal reply could be
returned to this important communication, and, in the
meanwhile, to assure the Russian Government of the cordial
sympathy of Her Majesty's Government with the objects and
intentions of His Imperial Majesty. That this sympathy is
not confined to the Government, but is equally shared by
popular opinion in this Country, has been strikingly mani-
fested since the Emperor's proposal has been made generally
known by the very numerous resolutions passed by public
meetings and societies in the United Kingdom. There are,
indeed, few nations, if any, which, both on grounds of fc j1-
ing and interest, are more concerned in the mainten.'iuce of
general Peace than is Great Britain.

The statements which constitute the grounds of the Em-
peror's proposal are but too well justified. It is unfortu-
nately true that while the desire for the maintenance of
peace is generally professed, and while, in fact, serious and
successful efforts have on more than one recent occasion
been made with that object by the great Powers, there has
been a constant tendency on the part of almost every nation
to increase its armed force, and to add to an already vast
expenditure on the appliances of war. The perfection of
the instruments thus brought into use, their extreme costli-
ness, and the horrible carnage and destruction which would
ensue from their employment on a large scale, have acted
no doubt as a serious deterrent from war. But the burdens
imposed by this process on the populations affeotPd must, if
prolonged, produce a feeling of unrest and discontent men-
acing both to internal and external tranquillity.

Her Majesty's Government will gladly cooperate in the
proposed effort to provide a remedy for this evil; and if,
in any degree, it succeeds, they feel that the Sovereign to
whose suggestion it is due will have richly earned the
gratitude of the world at large.

Your Excellency is, therefore, authorized to assure Count

Il'

273

Tin: (MTtJl) HTATEH OF EUROPE

Muravieff that the Emperor's proposal is willingly accepted
by Her Majesty's Government, and that the Queen will have
pleasure in delegating a Representative to take part in the
Conference whenever an invitation is received. Her Ma-
jesty's Government hope that the invitation may be accom-
panied by some indication of the special points to which the
attention of the Conference is to be directed as a guide for
the selection of the British Representative, and of the as-
sistants by whom he should be accompanied.

You will read this dispatch to the Minister for Foreign
Affairs, and leave him a copy of it.

After the replies were received the Continent began
to reverberate with the reports of military and naval
preparations in I ranee and England. AVar seemed
imminent for a time. But Count ]\[uravieff's timely
visit to Paris contributed materially to convince the
Fiencli that they had better not resent too seriously
the bullying talk too plainly audible across the Chan-
nel. Captain ]\rarchand was withdrawn from his
untenable position, and the prospect of war died away,
much to the regret of a small but influential party in
England which lusted for an opportunity to " have it
out with France " when she was isolated, distracted,
and at a great disadvantage. But although war no
longer seemed imminent, warlike preparations con-
tinued on both sides. The Kaiser, returning from the
East, immediately prepared to add 26,000 men to the
army of the Fatherland. In St. Petersburg a feeling
of profound discouragement prevailed. All the Gov-
ernments had been polite, none of them had been in
the least degree helpful. The masses to w^hom the
Emperor had specially appealed had remained apa-

■ I

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

978

thetic. At the beginning of December so profound
was the feeling of disappointment that it was almost
decided to abandon the project.

Tlie design then entertained was to substitute for
the great Parliament of the Nations summoned to deal
practically with the greatest scourge of the peoples,
a mere formal confabulation of the Ambassadors sta-
tioned at St. Petersburg. Fortunately, when the
horizon was the blackest, light rose in the West. The
proclamation of the International Crusade of Peace
in London, and the extraordinary effect produced
throughout the whole European press by the an-
nouncement of the pi'oposed Pilgrimage of Peace,
renewed the hope of the Russian Government that
something after all might be accomplished. The half-
formed determination to get out of the Conference by
a mere ambassadorial palaver was abandoned, and on
Monday, January 16th, a summary of a Russian Circu-
lar was telegraphed to the Times by its St. Petersburg
correspondent : —

A Preliminary Interthange of Ideas.
The Russian Circular explains that although the horijson
has been somewhat overclouded since Count Muravieff sent
out his first communication in August last, and although
some of the Powers have even taken steps to increase their
armaments, it is hoped that the general situation will again
become calm and favorable to the success of this great hu-
manitarian undertaking.

Points for Discussion.

Meanwhile, the Russian Government thinks it possible
and advisable to have a preliminary interchange of ideas on
18

274

THE UXITED f^TATES OF EVliOVE

the subject between the Cabinets In order to prepare the
way for diplomatic discussion. If the present moment Is
considered opportune, It would be desirable that an under-
standing should be arrived at between the Powers on the
following points: —

(1) The Arrest and Reduction of Armaments.
An agreement not to increase military and naval forces
for a fixed period, also not to increase the corresponding
War Budgets; and to endeavor to find means for reducing
these forces and their Budgets in the future.

(2) The Humanizing of ^\'ar.

The second division of the subjects suggested for discus-
sion Includes several proposals for multiplying the restric-
tions placed by the Brussels Conference of 1874 on the bru-
tality of warfare. These points are thus Indicated: —

(a) To interdict the use of any kind of new weapon or
explosive or any new powder more powerful than that which
is in use at oresent for rifles and cannon.

(&) To restrict the use in war of existing explosives of
terrible force.

{d) To forbid the use of submarine torpedo boats or
plungers and any other similar engines of destruction In
naval warfare.

(e) To undertake not to construct vessels with rams
(navires de guerre a Veperon).

if) To apply to naval warfare the stipulations of the Ge-
neva Convention of 1864.

(<7) The neutralization of ships and boats for saving those
shipwrecked during and after naval battles.

(Ji) The revision of the declaration concerning the laws
and customs of war elaborated in 1874 by the Conference of
Brussels which remains unratified down to this day.

(3) Mediation and Optional Arbitration.
The third, and far the most Important, section of the
Circular suggests that the Powers should —

»\

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

Ge-

the

in) Accept in principle the rmployment of good offlcos
In mediation and optional arbitration in cases which lend
themselves to such means In order to prevent armed con-
flicts between nations.

(h) Have an understanding on the subject of their mode
of application, and

(f) Establish some uniform iractice in making use of
them.

As previously explained, nothing touching the political
relations of States or the actual order of things as estab-
lished by treaties will be admitted.

These are the points which the Governments are invited
to consider in view of a conference, which, it is suggested,
should not be held in any capital of a great Power, where
the concentration of various political Interests might react
unfavorably upon the progress and success of its labors.

This, although only a siimniary, is perfectly authen-
tic. And verv satisfactory it is. It contains notliinti;
that is new to those who have followed the subject
closely. But it confirms and justifies all the asser-
tions which have been made by the exponents of Rus-
sian policy as to the real aim and drift of the id' as of
!N^icliolas IT. It dissipates the absurdities which have
been diligently imputed to the Itussian Government,
and it confronts Europe with one of the most momen-
tous and far-reaching issues that were ever submitted
to an International Conference. This is good, very
good, and the more closely it is looked at the better
it will appear to be.

(1) Mediation and Optional Arbitration.

Rightly to appreciate the immense importance of
the memorandum it is necessary to reverse the order

376

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

of its proposals, and begin with the last first. The
Russian Circular invites the Powers to arrive at a
preliminary understanding on several points, of which
the last in order but the first in importance is —

to accept in principle the employment of good offices in
mediation and optional arbitration in cases which lend them-
selves to such means in- order to prevent armed conflicts
between nations; an understanding on the subject of their
mode of application, and the establishment of some uniform
practice in making use of them.

"We have here for the first time clearly foreshadowed
the establishment of the principle of Mediation and
optional Arbitration as the basis of the settled Peace
which the nations desire. It is the first tentative step
taken by a responsible Government towards the reali-
zation of the " one hope " which Lord Salisbury enter-
tains as to the avoidance of a disastrous and suicidal
war.

As the first step towards the establishment of the
" International Constitution " of which Lord Salis-
bury spoke, the Tsar invites the Cabinets of the world
to a preliminary interchange of ideas as to the " estab-
lishment of some uniform practice in making use of "
the mode of applying mediation and optional arbitra-
tion as a means of preventing armed conflicts between
the nations. It is Avell to note the careful moderation
and extreme caution with which tliis vital new depart-
ure is approached. There is no dangerous suggestion
of the immediate creation of a Supreme Court of Arbi-
tration, the constitution of which would to the jealous

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

277

susceptibilities of the Powers appear to be an infringe-
ment upon the plenitude of their absolute sovereignty.
There is not even a proposal for an agreement always
to arbitrate in all cases before you fight. It is only
proposed, in the first place, that Arbitration should be
optional, and in the second place that it should only be
invoked " in cases which lend themselves to such
means." This is to recognize ab initio the broad dis-
tinction which exists between questions that in the
present state of national opinion can be arbitrated
upon and those which are not capable of reference to
an arbitral tribunal. The difference found very clear
and decided expression in the last Anglo-American
Arbitration Treaty. But all practical statesmen agree
that the one thing of supreme importance is to make
a beginning, to get some sort of international tribunal
created and set to work. No matter how limited may
be its scope, no matter how circumscribed its authority,
the creation of such an international centre of pacific
counsel and conciliation would be an enormous step
forward in the evolution of the modern State.

(2) The Arrest of Armaments.

The second important proposal in the Circular is
that which stands first in order. As has been repeat-
edly stated, the Tsar wishes to arrive at

an agreement not to Increase military and naval forces for
a fixed period, also not to increase the corresponding War
Budgets; to endeavor to find means for reducing these forces
and their Budgets in the future.

That is the famous Halt or Arrest of Armaments which

iH,

278

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

1 ;

was four years ago first suggested in the Westminster
Gazette by Madame i^ovikoff, after which it was for-
mally mooted by the Rosebery Cabinet, and only
abandoned because of the sudden outbreak of the
Chinese-Japanese War. The suggestion for an inter-
national quinquennium cannot be regarded as imprac-
ticable. Germany voluntarily arranges her i!»J^aval
Estimates for a term of six years, and her Army Bill
fixes her expenditure for five years. A\'hat one Power
can do all the Powers can do. Russia, which is the
freest of all to do as she pleases, voluntarily takes the
initiative in proj^osing that we should all subject our-
selves to such a reasonable limitation of our liberty.
The practical difiicultics in the way of fixing the
strength of the military and naval forces are not insup-
erable, especially when supplemented by an agreement
not to increase the War Budget.

(3) Their Future Reduction.

To arrive at a Halt or Arrest of Armaments is the
first step towards the " endeavor to find means for re-
ducing these forces and their Budgets in the future,"
That, however, we shall find, will be relegated to the
future. It will at present only remain a pious opinion.
It will l)e necessary to demonstrate tlie willingness and
good faith of the Powers in maintaining the status quo
before we can look for much progress in the shape of
actual reduction.

(4) The Humanizing of War.
The second section of the Russian Circular will

))

THE PEACE RESCRIPT

279

come as a surprise to many, especially to those who are
not aware that the only two great efforts that have been
made in our time to humanize war Loth emanated
from the Russian initiative. The Geneva Convention
for the succor of the wounded, the Brussels Conven-
tion prohibiting the use of explosive rifle bullets of
war — both were held at the suggestion of Russia.
Nicholas II. wishes to take up and carry to its logical
conclusion the humanitarian work of his grandfather,
the Emancipator of the Serfs, the liberator of Bul-
garia. I do not think that his ideas are likely
to be seconded by the other Powers. They will appeal
to the sentiment of our people. They are entirely in
our interest. But the attempt to limit the use of mur-
derous inventions, high explosives, balloons, and sub-
marine boats will never commend itself to the Powers
whose one hope of destroying the naval supremacy of
England is by the use of the very Aveapons the em-
ployment of wdiich the Tsar wishes to forbid. Russia
has sovereignty on land, England on water. What is
more natural and desirable than that thev should a^rce
to confine warlike operations to the elements in which
they are supreme, and forbid the extension of the area
of justifiable homicide to the sky that is over the earth
or the depths that lie beneath the surface of the sea?
So far as we are concerned, we may heartily second
the proposed interdict on inventions which would ren-
der the life of a million-pound ironclad not worth six
days' purchase after the outbreak of war.

ill

CHAPTEE III

TWO LETTERS FROM ST. PETERSBURG

In the preceding chapter I have somewhat antici-
pated the sequence of this chronicle in order to facili-
tate reference to the diplomatic documents connected
w'ith this memorable State paper.

I resume the narrative of my tour by reprinting
here the substance of the two letters in which I sum-
marized the result of my visit to St. Petersburg. The
first appeared in the Daily News of October 15th, the
second was written from Moscow on October 20th,
1898.

" "When the Lord turned again the captivity of
Zion. we were like them that dream. Then was our
mouth filled with laughter, and our tongue with sing-
ing. Then said they among the heathen: The Lord
hath done great things for them ; the Lord hath done
great things for us, whereof we are glad."

In these familiar words alone do I find adequate
expression to the lift of heart which I have experi-
enced on coming to St. Petersburg. From Brussels
to Paris, from Paris to Berlin, my pilgrimage of peace
had been Ijut a dolorous way, growing ever darker and
more dark, until it seemed as if there was no hope.

k^k

\^ice

TWO LETTERS FROM ST. PETERSBURG

281

But it is ever the darkest hour before the dawn.
Here, where I have now spent several days in ascer-
taining the central facts of the situation, it is " glad,
confident morning again." The snow is beginning to
fall in the streets of St. Petersburg, but in my heart
" the winter is past, the rain is over and gone, the
flowers ajipear on the earth, and the time of the sing-
ing of birds is come." For I have now satisfied my-
self, and have absolute confidence in proclaiming
aloud on the h< usetop, that all the gloomy and dis-
heartening suggestions of sceptical pessimists are with-
out foundation. In this proposal for the meeting of
a Conference of the nations on the subject of disarma-
ment there is no humbug, there is no nonsense. It
may seem too good news to be true ; but it is true never-
theless. The Tsar means business. lie has com-
mitted himself to this war against war with the same
resolute determination and loftv enthusiasm that his
grandfather launched the armies of Russia against the
despoilers of Bulgaria. And, as in the case of Alex-
ander II., it will not be the fault of the Tsar if the
thing is not carried through to a triumphant close.

It is difBcult to exaggerate the importance of this
certainty, which to me stands up like a groat Pharos
of Hope ia the midst of the clouds and mists that
obscure the horizon. But that it is a certainty no one
of the few but influential persons who are in the con-
fidence of the Tsar has anv doubt at all.

The scheme of the Conference was conceived in a
mind imbued from childhood with a horror of war and

* A

i I

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

that passion for peace which distinguished his father.
It was fostered by the continually increasing evidence
as to the fatuous and suicidal results of the policy of
heggar-niy-neighhor which culminated in the promul-
gation of the extra naval programme of the Russian
(jiovernment last spring, which was answered by Mr.
Goschen's supplementary naval programme of last
summer. It found a congenial environment in the
personal and domestic entourage of the Tsar, and
finally it was launched with all the splendid audacity
of vouth. The Tsar felt that he could never make a
inore fitting exercise of his autocratic prerogative. lie
thus confronted and confronts Europe wath an initia-
tive of leaders!' ip which, while it confounds and dis-
mays the blinking owls of the diplomatic ivy-bush,
will aiore and more evoke, as the real truth becon es
known, the enthusiasm of the peoples for the young
Emperor of Peace.

I admit frankly that this seems to be too good news
to be true. But the answer of all those who are in a
position to speak with an authority only second to that
of the Emperor himself agree in assorting that it is
true. Some deplore it, believing that in this false and
sceptical g(>neration such high ideals of youth are des-
tined to be cruoUy cut down by the sharp frost of
experience. Others rejoice with trembling, hardly
daring to make head against the flood of derision
and suspicion which the press has let loose against the
scheme. But all alike, whether thov like it or whether
they hate it, agree that the Emperor is thoroughly in

TWO LETTEim FROM. 8T. FETElltSBURG

283

earnest about the matter, and that there is on this sub-
ject no question that he is master in his own house.
Count Muravieff will do his Imperial master's bidding.
His ambition, his energy, and his detachedness of mind
may make hiui a more effective instrument than one
who was more heartily in accord with the order of
ideas which possess the mind of the Tsar. Such, at
least, is the hope for Count Muravieff. But with
whatever instruments he can find ready to his hand,
the Tsar has gone to work to put the thing through.

AVe are therefore face to face with the opportunity
of the century, and woe be unto us if we do not a\ ail
ourselves of it to the uttermost of our ability ! Xever
since Mr. Gladstone published his famous Bulgarian
pamphlet has so clear a clarion note rung upon the
ear of the world. And not even in 18TG was there
any issue presented to the conscience of mankind so
wide in its scope, so vast in its results, as the impeach-
ment of the armaments of the world by the Russian
Tsar. From his watch-tower in Livadia Nicholas II.
looks out over the armed camp of the world, through
the tents of which he has sounded his Evangel of
Peace. AVhat will the answer be? It is a moment
of profound suspense, for on that answ^er hangs the
future of the world.

As to the time and the place of the Conference,
nothing has yet been decided. These details are left
over to be discussed when all the replies come in.
Russia has no wish to impose her will upon the other
Powers. That which meets best the convenience of

284

THE UNITED HTATES OF EUROPE

the States represented she will accept. These ques-
tions of detail will be arranged solely from one point
of view, viz., how can they best secure the success of
the object which the Emperor has rt heart? This one
thing he will seek, considering p:> minor question of
importance except so far as it contributes to the reali-
zation of hi^ '^reat ideal. Count Lamsdorff, who, in
Count ^ r; M/ieff's absence, is now directing the Kus-
sian Foit Ji'ji .ffice, reminds me in many respects of
his predecessor Al.. v^e Giers, whom I met ten years ago
in the same office. That is to say, he is a man who
impresses you with the honesty of his convictions and
the sincerity of his words — a man sincerely desirous
of peace, and thoroughly imbued with the sentiments
of his Imperial master.

The question of the extra naval programme to which
Russia stands committed is frankly discussed. It was
probably the immense object-lesson which that pro-
gramme afforded, together with the corresponding
programmes which it provoked in England, that con-
vinced the Tsar that the moment had come for declar-
ing war against war. I have, of course, no official
authority to make any formal notification on this point,
but it is evervwhere assumed as a matter too obvious
for remark that if the Conference meets and agrees
upon a stay of armaments, Russia will be the first to
stop the execution of her pre^dous programme, so far
as relates to all ships not already in course of construc-
tion. I need hardly emphasize the significance of
such an act on Russia's part. It would be the outward

TWO LETTERS FROM »ST. PETERSBURG

285

and visible sign of the inward grace which is animating
the ruler of Russia.

The programme of the Conference is not drawn up.
There is no desire on the part of the Tsar to thrust any
cut-and-dry proposal down the throats of the other
Powers. There is, indeed, a manifest shrinking from
anything that might look like a desire to dictate or to
presume in any way to influence the free deliberations
of the representatives of the nations. But one thing
is certain. No political or terri^ :*ial question in dis-
pute between the nations will be m oted at the Con-
ference. It will no more deal with i^'ashoda than with
the Philippines, and it is as absolutely debarred from
touching the future of Alsp""e and Lorraine as it is
from raising the question of .ue independence of Ire-
land or Poland. Keither will there be any proposal
for the disarmament of any national force at present
in existence. What is sought is to make a beginning,
a safe beginning, by arriving at a solid agreement
against any further increase of armaments, which, if
it lasted for only five years, would serve as the founda-
tion for indefinite progress in the direction of a pro-
portionate and simultaneous reduction of the burden
of armaments.

The Tsar has taken the initiative; but that does not
mean that he intends to ask the Conference to register
any preconceived plan or scheme that may commend
itself to his judgment. "What he wishes is that an
honest endeavor should be made by all the Powers to
ascertain whether it is possible to arrive at any com-

286

TJIE LMTED UTATEH OF EUROPE

mon ground of agreement for checking the continu-
ance and indefinite expansion of the ruinous game of
beggar-my-neighbor. If there is any definite idea at
the back of tlie Russian mind, it is that the status quo
as it exists at this moment might with advantage be
accepted as the normal maximum, and that all the
nations might agree to cry halt at their present rate
of naval and military expenditure. How this most
desirable end should be secured, ndiether the status
quo should be defined in terms of the contingents
under arms or the ships on the Xavy List, or whether
it should be expressed in the figures of the expendi-
ture on the Services, are matters upon Vvdiich the Con-
ference must be left quite free to decide. Where
there is a will there is a way, and if the Tsar's desire
is shared by the other nations, there is no question but
that some definite resolution will emerge from the Con-
ference which will operate as a very effective check
upon the growth of the exactions of militarism.

The prejudice that exists in many quarters against
any humanitarian movement which is initiated in
Russia is comprehensible, but it is unjust, and in the
light of history it is absurd. To support Russia's initi-
ative in such a matter does not in the least commit any
one to approval of every detail of Russian internal or
external policy. What Englishmen are apt to forget
is that it was Russia to whose initiative the w^orld owed
the two international Conferences which have done
anything in our ^"ime to abate the horrors of war. The
Conference which established the Red Cross move-

I-'

TWO LETTERS FROM 1ST. PETERSBURG

287

mcnt was proposed by Russia, and so was the Confer-
ence wliicli forbade the use of explosive rifle bullets
in warfare. The llussian Tsar, despot though he may
have been, was a better friend to human liberty when
he supported the cause of emancipation in America at
a time when free England siwke with uncertain voice
and her upper classes openly supported the slave
power. ]*^or should it be forgotten that it was the
grandfather of the present Tsar who unsheathed the
sword that liberated Bulgaria, while England sent her
ironclads to prop up the tottering throne of the Turk-
ish Assassin. Iii issuing this Peace Circular the Tsar
is faithful to the best traditions of his fathers.

Let us hope that this time at last he may find only
a generous emulation and rivalry in good works on
the part of the English people. The chances of the suc-
cess of the Conference depend more upon the nature of
the response in Britain than on any other considera-
tion whatever. A vigorous national manifestation of
Britain's determination to unite heartily with the Tsar
in the war against war might mark the dawn of a new
epoch in human history. If to the chivalrous and
eloquent appeal of the young Autocrat of the East the
free peoples of the "West make only a halting and
indifferent response, an opportunity will be lost the
like of which we may never see again. But if, on the
contrary, from the heart and conscience of great
democracy, there should be heard a response over-
whelming and universal, an alliance would be formed
between the two greatest forces of our time — au alii-

fca

888

THE I'MTED i^TATEi^ OF EiUorE

ancc l)ase(l on the fraternity of the peopk's and dedi-
cated to a Holy War against the greatest evil of our
time.

The second letter was as follows: —

"When I caine to Russia I wps told that this was the
worst time in the year for finding anybody. I have,
however, already seen almost everybody — except the
Tsar — who counts for anything in Russia. Count
Muravicff, it is true, I have not seen, lie is away in
Western Europe. General Kouropatkin is also ab-
sent. But, with the exception of these two, I think I
can fairly say that I have seen everybody whose opin-
ion counts for anvthinnj in the direction of Russia's
policy. I have seen, for instance, Count Lamsdorff,
of the Foreign Office, now, in the temporary absence
of his chief, the apparent as well as the real mainspring
of the office to which he has devoted for years the
trained energies of his whole life. I have met on
three occasions M. Witte, the Minister of Finance, the
strongest, the most original, and the most succesoful of
the Chancellors who have ever presided over the Rus-
sian Exchequer. I have twice been received in the
most friendly and hospitable fashion by ]\I. Pobedo-
nostseff, the famous Procurator of the Holy Synod,
whose power is recognized the more by those who like
it the least. Prince Khilkoff, the Minister of Ways
and Communications, who is now pushing on the con-
struction of the great Siberian Railway with some-
thing of American energy, was not less kind and cour-
teous or ready to reply to my inquiries. I also had an

id (ledi-
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TWO LETTERS FROM ST. PETERSlillH}

280

interesting conversation with M. de Martens, the fa-
mous jurist wlio is to preside over the Yenezuehi arbi-
tration, and wlio, from his frequent arbitrations, has
come to be regarded as a kind of Deputy Lord Chief
Justice of Christendom. I repeatedly saw M. Basili,
the chief of the Asiatic Department of the Foreign
Office, to wliose charge the oversight of the Peace
Conference is entrusted, and had long and interesting
discussions both with him and his assistants. I spent
a long afternoon in company with ]\r. Jean de Block,
the Warsaw banker, (icneral ]\Iossouloff, Director
of the Department of the Foreign Cultes, was another
official wliom I was glad to meet.

Kot less interesting than these representatives of
official Russia were the unofficial Russians, with whom
I spent no little time in St. Petersburg. Chief among
these were Prince I'khtomsky, of the St. Petersburg
Viecleniosti, a man reputed to be a veritable Anglo-
phobe, but whom I found to be one with whose opin-
ions I was in almost absolute accord. I had also a
couple of long interviews with M. Rothstein, the
Director of the Russo-Chinese Bank, the hcte noire
of Fnglish officialdom, but a man with whose views,
especially on Chinese affairs, English men of business
would find it extremely difficult not to sympathize.
Besides these, I saw, of course, both the Ambassadors
of the English-speaking nations, and any number of
unofficial representatives both of Britain and the
United States. Of press men and ]>rofessors I saw

not a few. Hence, when T left St. Petersburg T did
19

;2!K)

THE UXITJW STATEti OF EUROPE

SO with the happy consciousness that I had missed no-
body who was worth seeing, and that I had got down
to the bedrock of the question which I had come to
Russia to investigate. For be it noted that my visits
to the Ministers and others named above were by no
means mere calls of courtesy. I came on a mission
of inquiry, and I interviewed every one " down to the
ground." It is no small test of the urbanity and cour-
tesy and hospitality of the Russians that they bore with
my inquiries so patiently and entertained me with a
cordiality and generosity that could hardly have been
exceeded if I had been an accredited envoy from a
friendly and allied state.

The net result of the fortnight I spent in St. Peters-
1)urg is to confirm in every way the convictions whicli
I expressed in my last letter. "Whatever else may be
in doubt, one thing is no longer in doubt — namely,
that Russia is now^ definitely, publicly, and solemnly
committed to a policy of peace. The Tsar has gone
into this Conference affair with hearty goodwill. ITe
means business. And not onlv does he mean business,
but his ]\rinisters mean business also. I cannot speak
for Count ]\ruravieff. ITe has already spoken for him-
self, rnd everybody says that he can be relied upon
to do the will of the Tsar. But all the other Ministers
are of one mind on the subject. Some, it is tiue,
being old and having long since parted with the enthu-
siasm of their youth, are dubious as to whether any
other nation will follow tlie lead so chivalrously taken
by Nicholas TT. All of them, whether old or young.

TWO LETTER >S EROM HT. PETERSBURG

291

agree in asserting that the young Eniporoi* has taken
a lead which renders it practically impossible for
Russia to embark upon an increased expenditure on
armaments, and ties her hands behind her back so far
as any aggressive action is concerned in any part of
the world.

It was not until the very last dav of niv stay in St.
Petersburg, when T had long and important interviews
at the Foreign Oflice and with ]\r. AVitte, that I fully
realized th"5 immeu'-e practical significance of the Tie-
script. It is the fashion to say, " It is very lofty, very

noble, etc., etc. But " Always a "" but." So

far as the other nations are concerned, the Tsar's pro-
posals may be accepted with as many Inits as you
please. But in Bussia the Tsar's declarations have
a force and a binding autliority which does not depend
upon the resolutions of any Conference. "■ The Tsar,"
said one of his Ministers, " must have been mad if ho
had publicly and solemnly affirmed liis determination
to abate tlie plague of armaments unless he himself
intended to abide bv his own declarations. Ilis Be-
script may bind no one else; it undoubtedly binds
Bussia. As the other Powers have none of them ex-
pressed an opinion that the Tsar is mad, I suppose they
accept his Bescript as the public promulgation in the
most formal and solemn fashion possilde of his own
unalterable resolve to oppose to all policies of aggres-
sion a policy of peace, and to endeavor more and morn
to diA'ort to : "uitful enterpvlses of peace the immense
sums now spent on the army and the navy."

'Ffl

20;.

THE IS IT ED HTATE OF E110.VJ-]

I put to the Minister the frequently stated difHouify
about the contrast between the £10,000,000 allocated
for extra naval purposes in spring and the Peace Re-
script of late midsummer. He replied at once : —

" If the Peace Rescript liad been issued seven
months earlier we should iiave saved all these millic ns.
We cannot get them back, but we shall now be deliv-
ered from the fear of seeing other millions take the
same road."

M. Wittc, as might be expected from the Sir M.
Tlicks-Beach of Russia, was most jubilant over the
Peace Rescript. He explained to me with tomewhat
sonorous eloquence that the famous invitatiori to the
Powers not merely made manifest and unmistakable
the pacific resolution of t^e Tsar; it immensely re-
lieved M. Witte himself. For it need not be stated
that in Russia, as in other countries, the nrmy and
navy are veritable daughters of the horseleech, per-
petually crying, "Give! Give!" The new quick-
firing guns for the fieM a. tillery are to be put in hand
without delay. Uni\orL:al military service is to be
enforced in Finland. The new ships ordered and now
in course of construction have to be paid for. Alto-
gether, the assault on the Treasury is not likely to be
lacking in vigor and persistence. But M. Witte is no
longer afraid. " Henceforth," he said, " if my col-
leagues should clamor for more millions for the army
and the navy I shall have no more trouble in rebutting
their demands. T shall simply hold np the Fmperor's
Rescript, ^a'\ they will not be able to say a word."

TWO LETTERS FRO^J ,sT. P£TERWlli(}

•nn

'^' Y'es/' somewliat lugubriously remarked a friend
of mine in the Foreign Office, to whom I repeated this
conversation, " that is just what we fear. We shall
find the Kescript used to tie Russia's hands behind her
back, and whenever we need money for a strategic rail-
way or anything else, we shall be told by ^I. Witte
that we cannot have it because the Tsar has issued the
Rescript. It is a serious danger for us, no doubt, but
we must just make the best of it."

I mention this because it illustrates better than a
hundred declarations the real practical value of the
Russian Rescript as a pledge and guarantee of Russian
policy.

If the Rescript acts as an effectual check upon the
spending departments of the army and navy, it is
not less valuable as indicating the trend of Russia's
policy — especially in the Far East. There are Rus-
sians who believe that it is the manifest destiny of
tlieir race to rule tne whole of Asia, just as theit- arc
many amongst us who pid)licly ])roclaim that i :■• the
manifest destiny of the English-speaking race to d lami-
nate not one Continent, but the whole round world.
But of aggressive designs against 'hina on the part of
any Russian official or unofficial I found none. The
Russians indeed are more anxious than the British to
resist any further encroachni' uts upon the independ-
ence and integrity of the Chinese Em]>ire. They are
going to leave the Chinese as much alone as possible.
]\I. Pavloff will soon be cooling his heels in Korea.
The new Russian AmbasBadur at Pekin is M. de Giers,

294

THE IMTED STATES OF EUROPE

a man bearing a name wliicli lias long been a synonym
for peace and good relations all round. Kiissia will
now go slow in China, and she will go all the slower
beeauses she realizes better than we do the penalty
that is exacted when the pace is forced. I had an idea
before I came here that Russians resented our sticking
up our flagstaff over the unarmed, ungarrisoned posi-
tion of Wei- 1 1 ai- Wei. I do not find this idea con-
firmed. On the contrary, they seem to admit that we,
like themselves, acted under the stress of dire neces-
sity. AVith, perhaps, the doubtful exception of Count
Muravieff, of whom I cannot speak at first hand, there
are only two opinions about the occupation of Port
Arthur and Talienwan. One opinion is that Kussia
should not have occupied these ports on any considera-
tion whatever. The oth^^v opinion is that it was a most
regrettable necessity, which llussia could not escape
when once Germany had given the signal for the parti-
tion of China by the occupation of Kiao-(Jliau. jSf^o
one, so far as I could ascertain, regarded the occupa-
tion of Port Arthur and Trdienwan as other than a
misfortune for Russia. But while some thought it a
less misfortune than the risk of the seizure of Port
Arthur by England, a very strong section was willing
to face that risk rather than take part in the partition
of (Jhinn. Of one thing I am quite certain, and that
is iluit Thissia would to-day be in military possession
ol the Port of ^slanchuria but for two things. The
first and most important was the seizure of Kiao-Chau
by (b^'many, which ought to have been forbidden;

TWO LETTERti FROM ti'l\ RETERtiBURQ

295

and secondly, the raving rant of our Jingo papers,
Avliich seem really to have convinced the Russians that,
if they were not quick about it Ei'^iaiid -svouid snap
up Port Arthur under their vc.y nose. To prevent
our seizing the place, and to establish a counterpoise
to Kiao-Chau, they took Port Arthur. Put they are
by no means 2)leased about it. " Ach! '• said a Rus-
sian Minister to me, piously crossing himself as he
spoke — "' if it had not been for the (ierman Emperor
seizing Kiao-duui, we should not to-day have had Port
Arthur and Talienwan hung like a millstone round
our necks. They are white elephants to us; we want
no more of the breed."

People in England may believe that this is all put
on for my benefit if they please. If they knew a little
more of the dead set that was made against the seizure
of the Manchurian ports, they would be less sceptical
and more rational in their appreciation of their neigh-
bor's policy. The Russian mood about Port Arthur
is, T take it, almost exactly Lord Salisbury's mood
about AVei-ITai-Wei. It was a mistake to take it, but
it was perhaps a greater danger to leave it alone. But
now that it is done, for heaven's sake make an end to
the breaking of China, and do what we can to keep
going the only Government which rules 400,000,000
of human beings without an armv and without a navv.

Hence, from these and other indications of Russian
policy, I am more than ever convinced that, so far as
Russia is concerned, the barometer is set steady for
peace. Certainly, f have found nowhere here, even

290

THE UXITED STATES OF EUROPE

'.i

among the most bitter assailants of the policy of the
(lovernment, the faintest eeho of the nonsense so
freely talked in England about the Circular being " a
ruse or trick issued in order to conceal some deep-laid
plan of the wily jMuravieff." " The wily Muravieff "
is hardly a description that would commend itself to
his critics in St. Petersburg, who usually assail him
for quite an opposite quality. Jjut although Coimt
Muravieif is b'oreign Minister, the real direction of
i^ussia's ])olicy lies in other hands than his. I repeat
once more that the Tsar is in earnest about this mat-
ter, and that it will not be his fault if the Conference
is not crowned by signal success.

When I left the city on October iTth nothing was
decided as to the place or date of the assembly of the
Conference. The suggestion that it should be held
in Brussels may be regarded as disposed of by the fact
that in the opinion o"',' u'.e King of the Belgians the
^*roper place of meeting' would be St. Petersburg,
where the Conference would assemble under the eyes
and under tlu^ direction of tlie noble and powerful
sovereign who conceived the generous idea of sum-
moninij; the Parliament of Peace.

..^j::

->^..

.r.^^ IJBRARY. ^4^^

ir-^

CHAPTER IV

M. ^VITTE AXD TFIS WORK

M. Serge Yulevicli AVitto (or Vitte, if yon conform
tlic ortbograpliY of the luuue to its proper pronuncia-
tion) is one of the most remarkable Knssians who has
ever occnpied his present important post of Minister
of Finance and Trade, and by far the strongest of the
ten holders of ^Ministerial portfolios who now govern
Russia under the Tsar. Since Reutern — who was
Minister in the '" sixties/' and whose ultimate success
in producing surpluses of revenue in the place of pre-
vious deficits was nipped in the bud by the outbreak
of the war against Turkev — no other Russian Minister
of Finance has j^layed such a conspicuous part in the
affairs of State and accouijdished so many important
reforms in such a com])aratively short space of time.
Tt must be remendjcred, however, in estimating his
achievements that the way had, to a great extent, been
paved for him by his inunediate predecessor M. Vish-
negradsky, who was also a very able Minister of Fi-
nance. It was, in fact, due to the patronage of Yish-
negradsky that AVitte emerged from the obscurity in
which he began life as a minor railway employe at
Odessa, and Vishnearadskv, on breaking down in

11'

298

THE V SIT ED UTATEH OF El ROPE

Lealtli, proposed M. Witte as his successor to Alex-
ander III.

]\r. Witte, like Prince Kliilkolf, the present Minister
of Ways and Communications, is essentially a railway
man; and his ability in railway administration appears
to have been liis sole recommendation for the onerous
task of directing the finances of the Empire. And to
this circumstance must be attributed the enormous
extension of Russia's railways during his term of office.

Serge Yulevich Witte was born at Tillis, where his
fatlier was at the liead of an Agricultural Department
under the Imperial Lieutenant of the Caucasus. After
graduating at the University of Odessa, Witte entered
the service of the Southwestern Railways in that town,
and gradually rose to be traffic manager. In 1878
he was called to St. Petersburg, and took part in
a special commission on railways, which led to his
appointment as Director of a newly devised Railway
Department. Finally, in 1892, he became Minister
of Finance, after first acting for a few months as Min-
ister of Ways and Comnuinications.

As a Minister, he was at once confronted with the
opposition of the aristocratic and bureaucratic society
of St. Petersburg, who looked at him askance as an
upstart and an outsider. All the details of his private
life were made the common gossip of the town ; anony-
mous and secret pamphlets against him were published
abroad and circulated in Russia by thousands; but,
nothing daunted, Witte forged ahead and took the
Jews into his confidence as indispensable auxiliaries.

.1/. WITTE AXD HIH ^YORK

209

He said to Pobedonostseft", the powerful official head
of the Russian Church : — " You leave my Jews in
peace, and I will not interfere with your priests." All
the traits of his character, as well as personal appear-
ance, indicate a strong, determined individual, lie
is a very tall, largely built man, with a ponderous,
ungainly movement in walking, as if he suffered from
gout, with no polish of manner, and a disdain for cere-
mony and etiquette when he has any point to gain.
All the clever politicians and journalists who can
serve his purpose he attracts within the widely spread
jurisdiction of his ever extending Ministry by tempt-
ing offers of more lucrative employment; and if they
turn against him he G'euerallv finds means to silence
or crush them. When they take refuge abroad, like
his deadly enemy M. Cyon, who has published an
entire librarv of anti-AVItte literature, he does not
scruple to have them outlawed by order of the Tsar.

ITis first work in preparation for the monetary re-
form was to put down speculation in paper roubles
between St. Petersburg and Berlin, and clear out the
Augsean stable of the Russian Bourse. He prohibited
the exportation of rouble notes; withdrew a large
quantity of them from circulation ; limited their future
issue by the State Bank on the security of bullion;
fixed the rate of exchange in the proportions then pre-
vailing on the market between gold and paper,
wdiereby the value of the paper rouble became settled
at 1^ roubles metallic, and finally reduced the standard
silver rouble to a part of the fractional currency, and

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introduced a gold standard by minting a whole series
of new gold coins interchangeable everywhere for
paper on this basis.

The critics who vainly imagined that they might
some day get back all that their forefathers fifty years
before had gradually lost, or fancied that they had lost,
by the depreciation of the paper money, accused him
of " devaluation " and repudiation, but AVitte kept on
his way "/ithout flinching. A money agent who was
discovered to be sending false or alarming information
abroad in cipher telegrams was promptly expelled the
country. Witte's agents were everywhere in Russia
and abroad. He endeavored to regulate the business
Change " by compelling the sworn brokers to

a u

stand within chalk-marked squares drawn on the floor
of the building; but everybody revolted at this absurd
and ridiculous measure, and a special commission of
Exchange rcfoi-m was then appointed. The bank
directors couiplaincd that they were no longer their
own masters — Witte dictated to them how they should
transact their business, and bullied them if they did
not at once comply. One banking firm, suspected of
speculating in grain, had their books suddenly over-
hauled by a special conmiission sent by Witte, and
their shares immediately fell in value.

In spite of all this, it is now generally recognized
that the results of this redoubtable Minister's work
have so far proved highly beneficial to the country at
large. It would fill a volume to describe all the meas-
ures and reforms which he has had adopted. One of

M. WITTE AND BIS WORK

301

J of

the most important has been the brilliant completion
of the conversion of the State loans, the interest on
which has thereby been reduced from 5 and 5^ per
cent, to 4^ and 4 per cent. It is true that in order to
do this, and also to supply the wherewithal for the
prodigious activity in railway construction, he has had
to increase the national debt by hundreds of millions
of borrowed money, but the excuse is that this is nearly
all for productive objects which will return an equiva-
lent and more in due course of time. The last, but
not the least, of AVitte's great reforms is the introduc-
tion of the State liquor monopoly.

There is probably no idea more firmly fixed in the
mind of most Englishmen than that the Ilussian people
are as drunken a« Tlussian diplomatists are tricky. I
am not going to deny it. I think it is true. But that is
because the statistical returns prove that the Russians
drink much less spirits per head than the virtuous
Scotch, and many other nations in Europe. Those
who care to go into the subject, not of diplomacy, but
of drunkenness, will find it carefully treated by Mr.
Carnegie, the second secretary to our Embassy at St.
Petersburg, in a report received as recently as last
June. I believe that it can be proved that much of
the disrepute of Russian diplomacy is duo, not to the
dishonesty of the diplomatists, but to the honest desire
of the Russian Government to meet tlic wishes of its
neighbors. In like manner Mr. Carnegie affirms that
the bad reputation of the Russian peasants for drunk-
enness is really due to their superior sobriety. It

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sounds like a paradox, but it is a simple truth. Mr.
Carnegie says: —

In Russia the average consumption of spirits was and still
remains very mucli lower than in many other countries, and
if drunkenness is more apparent than elsewhere it is be-
cause the lower classes are unaccustomed to a regular
usage of spirits, and are, therefore, more liable to succumb
to the temptation to drink in excess when the occasion
offers. — Dipl. and Cons. Reports No. 485, p. 5.

There are few subjects more interesting to the
traveller in Russia than to note the drastic fashion
in which the Russian Government has dealt with the
liquor trade. We pride ourselves upon our superior
morality, but King Demos is powerless in the grasp
of that greater than he — King Bung; whereas the
Russian autocracy handles the elsewhere omnipotent
liquor trade with unceremonious severity. It is
enough to turn Sir Wilfrid Lawson green with envy.
The United Kingdom Alliance would be delirious with
delight if it could in a single English county achieve
the results that the Russian Government has attained
without fuss or fury in the shape of temperance
legislation.

In one half of European Russia all sale of spirits
for consumption on the premises has been absolutely
and ruthlessly suppressed. The only exceptions are
the few high-class restaurants and buffets which prove
the rule. If any one wants a glass of vodka, for in-
stance, in St. Petersburg, he cannot procure it for love
or money outside hotels, restaurants and railway buf-

M. WITTE AND HIS WORK

303

fets, except in a sealed bottle, which he is not allowed
to open on the premises. " ^o corkscrews are allowed
in the shops, nor are the buyers allowed to open the
bottles on the premises or w^iile carrying them to their
destination." To attempt to enforce such a draconian
law in England would provoke a revolution. In Rus-
sia there has not even been a protest. Nor is that all.
At the same time that the Government interdicted
corkscrews and prohibited all sale of spirits " to be
drunk on the premises," it cut down with unsparing
hand the number of places licensed to sell strong drink
even under these severe conditions. In St. Peters-
burg at one fell blow 400 of the 650 traktirs or spirit
shops lost their licenses. In place of 937 wine and
spirit shops only 178 were allowed to continue in busi-
ness, while 325 Government and private spirit shops
but partially replaced the 759 others that had been
closed. Mr. Carnegie estimates the number of per-
sons who lost their livelihood by this sweeping reform
at 10,000 in the capital alone. As for compensation
for vested interests, read the following extract from a
semi-official publication : —

In Russia there can be no question of giving compensation
to the evicted retailers of spirits. The license they were
granted by which they were permitted to carry on their
deplorable business has always been considered by the
legislator, the administration, the public, and by themselves
as a permission liable to be withdrawn without explanation
or comment. — Dipl. and Cons. Reports No. 485, p. 9.

If the United Kingdom Alliance does not elect Mr.

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Witte president for life, gratitude must bo extinct in
the Local Option breast.

Nor is it only the dealers in ardent spirits that have
felt the knife of the reforme-'. Poer — tell it not in
Burton and name it not in the strec ts of Milwaukee —
has also suffered. The restrictions imposed on the
sale of beer in St. Petersburg are said to have reduced
the consumption by 30 per cent. On the principal
holidays — and holidays are numerous in Russia — the
drink-shops are shut up either altogether or for the
greater part of the day. In the last tliirty years the
tax on spirits in England has remained practically
stationary. In Russia it has been increased until it
is two-and-a-half times more than it was in 1863.

Even this was not all. The Government, not con-
tent with persecuting the Trade in this high-handed
fashion, confiscating licenses, destroying vested in-
terests, and abolishing all sale for consumption on the
premises, proceeded in still more insidious fashion to
undermine the very ground upon which John Barley-
corn was still permitted to stand. Side by side with
the doomed traktir, the Government is endeavoring to
establish tea shops, " intended to become harmless
places of resort for the lower classes where they can
meet Avithout any temptation to intemperance." Tem-
perance committees have been formed whose function
it is to make tea-rooms as attractive a.s possible, and so
to combat the temptation to drink vodka. ' "When in
England we see Government grants made for the
establishment of coffee taverns, and when the Lord

M, WITTE AND HIS MORE

805

Lieutenant of the county is expected as a matter
of course to act as president of the local temperance
committee, we shall have come up to the Kussian
standard.

Of course, those who would discover that the Arch-
angel Gabriel was a disguised devil if they overheard
him speaking Russian, are quite sure that all this tem-
perance legislation is only a ruse of the wily Witte to
fill his coffers. It is unfortunate for those suspicious
critics who have substituted for the charity that think-
eth no evil the hatred that thinketh no good thing-
can come out of the Russian Nazareth, that so far as
statistics prove anything, the revenue has suffered
rather than gained by the change. It is too soon to
come to a definite conclusion on the subject, but
Mr. Carnegie thinks that the system by which the
Russian Government makes the supply of spirits a
uionopoly of the state will ultimately both increase
the revenue and " act at the same time as a check on
intemperance."

Few things in St. Petersburg will more startle the
untravelled Briton than the discovery that it is the
temperance societies which have taken in hand the
supply of popular recreation. Imagine Lincoln's Inn
Fields handed over to a City Temperance Society for
the purpose of making it available for the amusement
of the crowded denizens of the back streets of IIol-
born. Imagine, if you can, a spacious theatre erected
in the centre of the square, and around it various
booths, band-stands, and dancing floors, to all of which

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everyone is admitted on paying a few halfpence.
Decorate the trees with festoons of colored lamps,
brilliantly illuminate the whole area with electric
light, and keep the fun of the fair going till mid-
night. In the theatre perform Shakespeare's trage-
dies and other dramas, classic and otherwise, twice
or thrice a week, filling in the alternate nights with
"oncerts and other entertainments. When you
have done all that and more besides, you will only
have reproduced in London what the St. Petersburg
Temperance Society, under the presidency of Prince
Oldenburg, has done and is doing every summer
in the public squares and gardens of St. Petersburg.
No doubt, as the Russian scoffer said : " God made
the English and someone else the other people." But
even the God-made race may here and there discover
among " the other people " hints by which it might
profit in the solution of the social problems of our
time.

A summary of "Witte's work would not be complete
without a reference to the commercial treaty with Ger-
many in 1894, which he succeeded in compelling
the Germans to make only after a fierce war of
tariffs. Germany had never before been met with
such a policy of retaliation on the part of a Russian
Minister.

M. Witte has not confined himself to Russian inter-
nal affairs. His railway and financial schemes in Man-
churia and Korea by means of the Russo-Chinese
Bank, the now defunct Russo-Korean Bank, and the

M. WITTE AXD 11 1 H WORK

307

Eastern Chinese Railway Company, afford proof that
he knows also how to conduct an insinuating foreign
policy which must be far more effective in the end
than such disturbing acts of violent aggression as the
seizures of Kiao-Chau and Port Arthur, against which
he was the first to protest.

CHAPTEK V

A RUSSIAN COBDEN

Soon after the Peace Rescript was issued, a story
went the round of the press that it had its origin in
a remarkable interview which had taken place between

the young Emperor and M. B , who was described

as a famous banker, a millionaire, and the author of
a ponderous work on the future of war. The story,
like most such stories, had a foundation of truth. M.
Jean de Bloch, a banker and a political economist of
Warsaw, who for the last seven years had devoted his
life to the writing of a great book on the development
of modern v/ar and its influence on the nations, was
received some time ago by the Tsar and afforded an
opportunity of expounding his views at great length.
Shortly after that interview the Rescript appeared.
Post hoc is, however, by no means propter hoc. The
famous Rescript had, as a matter of fact, quite another
genesis — but into that I need not enter here. Suffice
it to say that the interview did take place, and that M.
de Bloch found the Emperor keenly and sympathetic-
ally interested in all that he had to say.

It was not the first time M. de Bloch had enjoyed
an opportunity of expounding his conclusions before

A RUSSIAN COBDEN

309

, story
gin in
itween
jcribed
;hor of
! story,
h. M.
mist of
)ted his
opment
ns, was
'ded an

length.
)peared.

;. The

another
Suffice

that M.

)athetic-

enjoyed
s before

the ruler of Russia. He had been received by Alex-
ander III. But the difference between the father
and the son was most marked. Alexander III. lis-
tened courteously, but made no remarks, while Nich-
olas II. accompanied and interrupted M. de Bloch's
discourse by perpetual questions and comments, which
showed the keenness with which he followed the ex-
position of the subject. A long discourse it was, two
hours on end, and in the middle of it M. de Bloch
grew weary, and had to halt for breath. But his Im-
perial listener never wearied, and always seemed eager
for more. Nor is this surprising. M. de Bloch is a
most in^aresting man. He has got hold of a great
idea, and he has quite exceptional gifts of exposition.
He is of Jewish origin and was born in Poland, a Rus-
sian subject. He has travelled much and far, and
for the last seven years of his life has devoted his
learned leisure and ample means to the production of
his magnum opus, " The Future of War."

I have called him the Russian Cobden, because he
reminds me in many ways of that most famous of all
the English economists who were also statesmen. He
possesses an engaging exterior, a great persuasiveness,
and he is absolutely dominated by his conception of
the truth, which he devotes his life to study and to
teach. M. de Bloch is not a Free Trader, although
he is not a Protectionist of the ordinary type. His
resemblance to Cobden does not lie in the particular
economical doctrine he professes, so much as in the
originality and simplicity of his mode of thought and

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his absolute certainty that he has struck the root of
things, lie is like Cobden in being an international
man, in taking wide views of things, and yet in always
standing four square upon the solid facts and material-
ities of life. " Give me figures," he said to me; '' let
me see the facts; it is no use discussing abstractions;
we should always see how they work out."

AVhat Free Trade was to Cobden, a conception of
the approaching extinction of war is to M. de Bloch.
Possibly the Warsaw banker may be as much mistaken
as was the Corn Law repealer in anticipating the
speedy triumph of his opinions. That is a matter
which the future alone can reveal. But his great idea
is that the immense progress in the deadliness of fire-
arms and explosives which has been made in the last
quarter of a century, together with what is practically
the arming of the whole manhood of Europe, has
brought us within close range of the time when war
will become practically impossible. Lord Lytton pre-
dicted the end of war by the discovery of Yril, that
mysterious compound of lightning and dynamite by
which a child could annihilate an entire army. M.
de Bloch is much too staid and solid a writer to dream
of that which does not exist. He takes his stand upon
the results already attained, and he maintains, with
inexhaustible eloquence and a marvellous store of de-
tailed information, that even now, little as the nations
dream of it, war has become practically out of the
question. And in his opinion the chief object of the
Peace Conference ought to be the definite ascertain-

A RVSSIAX COBDEN

311

ing and certifying of tlic truth of this fact before the
eyes of the whole world.

" What people have not realized," said M. de Bloch
to nie, " is that modern war is something altogether dif-
ferent from all the wars that have ever been fought
since the world began. If I were to prescribe the
right way in which to educate a soldier to-day, I should
begin by burning all military history before 1875.
Nothing that happened before then affords any in-
struction as to what will happen now. The long range,
high velocity, and great accuracy of the modern weap-
ons of destruction render the war of the future some-
thing altogether different from the wars of the past,
so that all conclusions based upon previous campaigns
are at fault. High explosives, quick-firing guns, to
say nothing of air ships and submarine boats, are rap-
idly making war impossible. The carnage, especially
of officers, will be such that even a successful war will
destroy the social fabric and open wide the door to
revolution, which Avill then triumph everywhere."

" But," I asked, " are you sure of your facts? You
are not a soldier, and how can you speak with authority
on such a question? "

" For my facts," he said, with pardonable pride,
"you can seek in my book. There I have laid the
foundation — as I believe, a foundation which no one
can shake — of the faith that is within me. I am not
a soldier, it is true, I am an economist. But the quali-
ties which make the best soldier — the gift of leader-
ship, personal prowess, great physical endurance, the

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talent to divine and anticipate an enemy's movements
— these do not necessarily enable the soldier to discern
the net result of modern inventions or their influence
on the future of war. The student who avails himself
of all existing materials furnished by military and
other authorities need not necessarily be a soldier. In
my book, which has already appeared in Russian, and
will soon appear in German and in French, you will
find the conclusions which I have stated based upon
an incontrovertible array of statistics culled from the
best authorities on the art of modern war."

" How far lias that conviction of the suicidal deadli-
ness of modern war spread throughout Europe? " I
asked.

" At present not far, because few comparatively are
aware of the full consequences of recent changes. But
in all armies, many of the more intelligent officers
realize the fact that for them a declaration of war will
be equivalent to a sentence of death. Among Ger-
man officers especially I have found of late years a
remarkable disappearance of all desire for war. There
is no war party among German officers to-day, for they
know that war for them would mean death. Again
and again they have said to me : ' If war breaks out
we shall, of course, go to the front. It is our duty.
But none of us will come back.' And they are right.
Sharpshooters with arms of precision of immense
range will pick off the officers; nor will any tell-tale
smoke betray the source of the sudden death."

" But," I object, " such ideas have always prevailed

A RUSSIAN COBDEN

313

whenever any new deadly weapon was invented.
Gnnpowder superseded the how and arrow, hut it did
not aholish war. Xeither will high explosives."

" By itself perhaps not/' replied M. do Bloch. " But
it is not by itself. For the main contention of my book
is twofold. First, that the conditions of modern war-
fare as to implements of destruction are too deadly iu
permit of war without mortality before undreamed of;
and secondly, that the disorganization of society which
would be occasioned by the mobilization for war of
the whole male population would produce results ut-
terly destructive to the State. It is with the economic
effects of war on the complex system of modern society
that I am most interested. The subject has never
been studied. But there lies the secret, the fatal
secret which mil render war impossible."

" In what way? " I ask.

" Modern society," he replied, " daily grows more
and more complex, more and more delicate. The
interdependence of the whole upon the proper func-
tioning of each of its parts is every year becoming more
palpable. This is no theory, nor does it Cvincern itself
with luxuries. It is the simple fact; the daily bread
of each of us more and more depends upon the coordi-
nation and cooperation of an immense multitude of
agencies, most of which are international, but all of
which would be readily thrown out of gear by a decla-
ration of war. I do not hesitate to declare that the
mobilization of the whole manhood of the nation for
purposes of war would have on the body politic, on

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the social organism, very much what the sudden ex-
traction of all the bones would have upon the body of
a man."

" But surely these things have been duly considered
and prepared for? " I object.

" Nothing of the kind," he replied. " In England
there have been one or two imaginative attempts to
forecast the results that would follow the outbreak of
war; for England, being the most artificial State in
existence, and less self-dependent, is of all others that
wliich would be soonest destroyed if by any means the
regular functioning of her food supply w^ere interfered
with. But in other countries there has been no study
of the economic results of war under modern condi-
tions. In France some years ago, when M. de Frey-
cinet was Prime Minister, M. Burdeau told me that
a proposal was made to appoint a Committee of Econo-
mists to report upon the economic results that would
follow an outbreak of war. But the soldiers vetoed
it. They do not wish to have the consequences of war
brought home to the knowledge of the people. But
that is what the Peace Conference ought' to do."

" In what way? " I ask.

" It is not for me," said M. de Bloch, " to draw up
the programme for the Congress, much less to pre-
scribe its procedure or dictate its resolutions. But my
idea of what might be done to the most advantage is,
if the Congress after its first meeting were to appoint
a committee or committees of the ablest of its mem-
bers to conduct what would be an international inquiry

A RUSSIAN COBDEN

815

into the extent to which modern warfare, under the
modern conditions of society, has practically become
impossible without sacrifices of life hitherto unheard
of on the battlefield, without total dislocation of the
fabric of society, and without inevitable bankruptcy
and revolution. That is the abyss towards which the
nations are rapidly sliding. The Congress should en-
deavor to open their eyes to envisage the situation as
a whole, from the military, naval, and economic points
of view. After the committees had completed their
inquiry, the results could be reported to an adjourned
meeting of the Congress, which would then busy it-
self with providing some other method of adjudicating
international disputes than that of war, which would
then be perceived to have become absolutely im-
possible."

Such, in brief, are the ideas of this Russian Cobden.
It is obvious that if he is right we are nearer the end
of war than any of us ventured to suspect. The proofs
of the impossibility of going to war on a great scale
without practical suicide of the nation are, he main-
tains, to be found in his great book, the six volumes
of which lie before me as I write. As I have under-
taken to have the gist of them published this spring in
English, they will be generally accessible before the
meeting of the Congress. But even if M. dc Bloch
is mistaken in the confidence which he reposes in what
may be described as the self-destruct ive energies of
modern war, he is not mistaken in the conviction that
the miserably wretched condition of the masses of

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mankind renders the waste of resources in provision
for homicides. It did one's heart good to hear M. de
Bloch expatiate upon the immense possibilities that
lay before the social reformer who had at his disposal
even one-tenth of the sum now lavished on armaments,
which, if he be correct, have now attained dimensions
which render it impossible to use them. Mr. Cham-
berlain in his early days, when he talked of ransom
and shed tears over the wretched condition of the serfs
of the soil, would have found himself in absolute ac-
cord with this bold assailant of the bloated armaments
of the modern world. 'Not even John Burns of Bat-
tersea could have spoken with more passionate earnest-
ness in describing the horrors of the extreme and
squalid poverty which abounds beneath the gilded
crust of our boasted civilization. I could have counted
my visit to Russia well spent if only it had brought me
into personal living relations with so remarkable a man
as M. de Bloch.

Of his book it is impossible to speak here, except in
generalities. It is in six volumes, and is very copi-
ously illustrated with all manner of diagrams, plans,
and pictures. It is entitled in Russian, " The War of
the Future in its Technical, Economic, and Political
Relations." I have only been able to look through it
enough to see that it would be impossible to give a
detailed summary without reading it thoroughly, prob-
ably more than once. As far as I can make out from
the indexes, the first five volumes, including the sup-
plement to the fourth, are statistical; analytical, and

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A RUSSIAN COBDES

817

descriptive, while the sixth is devoted to " General
Conclusions," which tend to show the potential dan-
gers of future wars, and summarize the dangers which
have occurred in the past. The sixth also treats of
the religious, racial, and territorial " open questions "
in Europe, and also in the Far East. This volume is
the more important just at the present time, and its
most important part in its turn is the final portion,
" The Conclusion," which treats of possible causes of
war, and illustrates their comparative triviality, advo-
cates the constitution of an International Court, point-
ing out that the present is the most convenient mo-
ment, and insists on the necessity for investigating the
conditions and consequences of war in a scientific man-
ner. The immense ground covered by the work may
be gathered from the fact that there is a list, twenty-
six closely-printed pages long, of authorities from all
languages, in all about a thousand authorities.

The book seems to comprise everything directly
or indir*^ Jtly connected with warfare and its conse-
quences. It treats the question at the same time in
the broadest and the most detailed and technical man-
ner. In fact, it resembles a cyclopaedia compiled upon
a philosophical principle, for it coordinates all the in-
formation it contains and brings them into a harmoni-
ous system, and only differs from a cyclopaedia inso-
much as its ultimate aim is polemical, though as far
as bulk is concerned it is mainly statistical. There
are nearly four thousand pages in the volumes.

M. de Blocli told me that in the French and Ger-

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man editions he has changed the title. " AVhcn I went
to look over the proofs at the printing establishment
in Germany where the German edition is being
printed, the foreman printer came to speak to me. It
was just after the Tsar's Rescript had appeared. ' Sir/
he said, ' do you not think that your book is now mis-
named? You call it "Die Zukunft des Kriegs." '
' Why so? ' I replied. ' Because,' he said, * after the
Tsar's Rescript there should be no more wars. And
if so, how can you speak of the Future of War? ' I
was so impressed by the man's remark that I call my
book simply ' War ' — for war, I hope, has no more a
future."

CHAPTEK VI

THE IDEAS OF PRINCE OUCHTOMSKY

Of Russian notables who are known beyond the con-
fines of their own country the number are few. It
is probable that there are not a dozen men in Russia
whose names have even been heard by the majority
of Englishmen and Frenchmen. But among this
dozen there must be included Prince Ouchtomsky,
who has a very definite, if not very conspicuous posi-
tion. Prince Ouchtomsky is the author of the stately
volumes in which are described the incidents of the
tour of the present Emperor through Asia. Prince
Ouchtomsky accompanied the Emperor on his journey
as a kind of historian-in-waiting, and afterwards acted
more or less as private secretary to the heir apparent
during the latter half of his journey. Since his re-
turn he has founded a newspaper in St. Petersburg,
the St. Petersburg Viedemostiy which is honorably dis-
tinguished in the Russian press for the independence
with which it criticises public affairs. Prince Ouch-
tomsky may be described as the Russian Wilfrid
Blunt. He is a poet, like Mr. Blunt, and he is con-
sumed by the same passionate devotion for the Chinese
that Mr. Wilfrid Blunt displayed in the cause of the

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Egyptian Fellaheen. As Mr. "Wilfrid Blunt was de-
voted to Arabi, so Prince Ouchtomsky pins his faith
to Li Ilnng Chang. He was personally attached to
Li Hung Chang during the latter's visit to Russia;
and the reverent devotion which he displayed to the
Chinese statesman is still the subject of laughing com-
ment among his friends in St. Petersburg. Prince
Ouchtomsky is a man of culture and of sincere political
and religious convictions. lie has travelled exten-
sively in China, and has spent some time as an inmate
of a Buddhist monasterv, where he lived the better to
imbibe the spirit of the people and familiarize himself
with the Buddhist idea of life. He has one of the
most remarkable collections of Buddhas in bronze and
in silver that exists in Europe. He collected them
with infinite pains from all parts of China and Thibet.
He was not allowed publicly to exhibit his spoils in St.
Petersburg, M. Pobcdonostseff, it is said, believing
that it would not befit an Orthodox Christian State to
permit an exhibition of so many Buddhas under the
shadow of its cathedral; so the hundreds of Buddhas
remain in Prince Ouchtomsky's own house, standing
in rows, like soldiers on parade. There are Buddhas
of all sorts and sizes, every one in its own time the
object of the reverence and devotion of numberless
worshippers. As I sat in the midst of that great com-
pany of images of him whom Asia adores, I could not
resist a curious impression as to the influence of a
shrine. The atmosphere was Asiatic, and not Euro-
pean, and the room seemed to be peopled with the in-

THE IDEAS OF PRINCE OUCUTOMSKY

321

niimeral)le company of those who for many genera-
tions past had bowed the knee in adoration before
these solemn, silent images, wi.i^n serve as keys to
unlock the inner mystery of the physical consciousness
of man. Prince Oiichtomsky has the reputation of
being a terrible Anglophobe. He speaks English ex-
tremely well; he is very familiar with English litera-
ture: he has an enfant terrible on his staff, Mr.
Hallstrom, who frequently writes fearsome articles
concerning the iniquities of England; but Prince
Ouchtomsky, although an unsparing critic of what
he considers the barbarity and ambition of Great
Britain, has never abandoned himself to any of the
excesses of Anglophobia. At the Foreign Office they
rngoT-rl luni as, first and foremost, a Chinese, just as
the pcoplv? at our Foreign Office regarded Mr. Wilfrid
Blunt as, hrst and foremost, an Egyptian; and he re-
sents much more bitterly any attacks upon the inde-
pendence of his beloved Chinese than all our offences,
real or imaginary, against the Russian Emperor. But
one great question which created some difference of
late between Russia and England — the duty of pro-
tecting the Armenians against their Turkish oppres-
sors — found Prince Ouchtomsky in strong opposition
to the policy of his own country. No one can speak
more unhesitatingly as to the wickedness of Prince
Lobanoff's policy. Prince Ouchtomsky is very much
of Mr. Gladstone's opinion in that matter, and as he
expressed his opinion freely in his newspaper, he may

be regarded as a valuable witness for truth and liberty
31

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ill tlic very heart of the Russian Empire. He is also
a strong advocate of religious toleration, and has set
himself firmly ag^' the persecuting policy which
has so long been i.. Ltivor in high quarters. All this
tends to show that Prince Ouchtomsky deservedly
holds a high place among the few independent indi-
vidualities who, from force of character or from advan-
tageous circumstances, have been able to make their
identity felt and realized outside Russia. In China
Prince Ouchtomsky is very popular, and was received
at Pekin on a recent visit with honors greater than
those which had been accorded to the Ambassador of
any foreign Power.

I made it my duty to make his acquaintance imme-
diately on arriving at St. Petersburg. I was warned
in advance that I should find him a virulent Anglo-
phobe. I was glad to find that this reputation Avas
undeserved. In his paper, the St. Petersburg Viede-
mostij there have appeared certain articles which
have attacked England with considerable vehemence.
These, however, do not emanate from his own pen,
but are contributed, for the most part, by a very able
but much afflicted journalist, who told me quite
frankly, at the beginning of a three hours' interview,
that he regarded it as his duty to correct the excessive
charity and Christian forbearance of his countrymen
by preaching, in season and out of season, the neces-
sity of hating England, whose sentiments, as expressed
by her newspapers and embodied in such acts as the
seizing of Cyprus and the continued occupation of

TUB IDEA.s OF PRINCE OlCHTOMtiKY

323

also
3 set
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^edly
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Egypt, and the appointment of Lord Ciirzon as Vice-
roy of India, indicated unmistakably her hostility to
Russia. I had many opportimities of meeting Prince
Ouchtomsky, and found him one of the most charm-
ing, cultivated and sympathetic men that I have come
across in my travels. Those Englishmen who know
him more intimately than was pos.'^ible to me with
such short acquaintance, assure me that I am not mis-
taken in believing him to be absolutely sincere, a man
of high principles and noble aspirations, possibly too
great an idealist for this present evil world, but never-
theless one who brings to the responsible discharge of
his journalistic duties the sincere desire to contend for
liberty, progress and peace. At the Russian Foreign
Office he is regarded with the same alarm and, shall
we say, derision, with which Sir Wilfrid Blunt was
regarded in Downing Street seventeen years ago.
They consider him a somewhat light weight, and I
was repeatedly assured that I had not to take him too
seriously. Outside official circles there was, however,
a general belief that Prince Ouchtomsky, by reason
of his former intimate relations with the Emperor
duiing his Asiatic tour, and the opportunity which he
still possessed of printing whatever he pleased in the
;S^^. Petersburg Viedemosti — a paper which every day
comes before the eye of the Emperor — was a man to
be reckoned with very seriously indeed. Whichever
estimate we take of him, there is no doubt that the
Emperor has a high regard for him ; and although he
may differ from his judgments, he recognizes his sin-

\ I

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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

cerity and ability, and certainly accords to him the
liberty of criticism which other journalists in Russia
have sighed for in vain. I had many long talks with
him concerning subjects that were nearest to his heart,
and I do not think T can do anything better in order
to interpret Prince Ouchtomsky to the outside world
than by reproducing here an article on " Our Crime
Against China," which I wrote in St. Petersburg as
the result of a long conversation with him. Most of
the article I submitted to him in manuscript, in order
that he might correct or modify any sentences which
might not have accurately expressed his opinions. He
returned the manuscript, however, without alteration,
expressing his entire concurrence in the views therein
set forth. In that, of course, I alone am responsible,
both for their form and for the suggestion with which
it concludes as to the possibility of Prince Ouch-
tomsky 's playing an important and useful role as a
European adviser to the mandarins of Pekin. That
suggestion, I know, has been received with horror in
Russia by French officials who declare, I believe with
reason, that Prince Ouchtomsky is much more Chinese
than the Chinese, and that the European Powers
would find it much more easy to deal with the man-
darins direct than to approach them through such an
unsympathetic intermediary as Prince Ouchtomsky.
English foreign ministers would have said much the
same, no doubt, if it had been proposed that Mr. AYil-
frid Blunt should be recognized as a European adviser
of Arabi's cabinet. That suggestion, however, is a

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RUSSIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER AND SOME OF HER AMBASSADORS

TUE IDEAS OF PRINCE OUCUTOMSKT

325

detail which stands distinctly apart from the opinions
of Prince Onchtomsky, embodied more or less faith-
fully in the following pages : —

The spectacle presented by the European nations
in China is not edifying; it may indeed be described
as truly revolting and even terrible. For what is the
meaning of this mustering of warships, this landing
of soldiers in the Far East? Does it not proclaim as
with a trumpet voice that the partition of China has
begun? Where the carcase is, the vultures will be
gathered together, and the aspect of the European
Powers is vulturous indeed. The harpies of civiliza-
tion — the exploiter, the concessionnaire, the stock-
jobber and company promoter — are swarming like
blow-flies around carrion, and behind them all are
shaking the mailed fists of Germany, England, and
Russia. It is an empire that is being cut and carved
for the looters of the world. Years ago the English
and French soldiers sacked and plundered the Summer
Palace of the Chinese Emperor. To-day the white-
skinned nations, panting to join in the commercial
exploitation of the whole of China, thunder with iron
hands at tlie gates of the empire. The catastrophe
which statesmen have foreseen and shuddered at for
two generations is being precipitated by the headlong
rush of financiers and traders. Who can say what the
end will be?

To this method of opening markets at the cannon's
moutl:, and extorting commercial concessions by the
menaces of Ambassadors, grave objection may be

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306

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

taken in any case on many grounds. But that which
chiefly concerns us in the present crisis is the extra-
ordinary^ peril which is being heedlessly created by
applying these methods to China under the present
circumstances. It was once regarded as an axiom of
European statesmanship that the vast mass of homo-
geneous humanity which inhabits China should be re-
garded as a vast preserve in which no one should go
poaching on his own account, that what one nation
gained all the other nations should share, and that
nothing should be asked from the rulers of China
which it would be beyond tlieir power to grant. In
other words, the AVhite World was to treat the Yel-
low World as if each was a great unit, and it was the
recognized interest of one world to avoid the dis-
integration of the other. This established tradition
went by the board when the German Emperor seized
Kiao-Chau. We are still too near the event ade-
quately to realize the tremendous results which fol-
lowed the success of that somewhat piratical venture.
The seizure of Kiao-Chau advertised to the world that
in China there was no longer a government capable
of repelling invasion or of resisting spoliation by its
neighbors. It was as if the Kaiser had placarded a
huge " To be Let or Leased to the First Comer " over
the whole map of China. The example was not lost.
Kussia — whose Siberian railway, as Mr. Balfour had
publicly acknowledged two years ago, gave her a moral
claim based on economic necessity for an ice-free out-
let in the Yellow Sea — no longer dared to wait until

THE IDEAS OF PRINCE OUCUTOMSKY

327

over

her engineers had brought the railway to the frontiers
of Manchuria. If China was to be let or leased to
the first comer, then Russia must make secure without
hesitation the northern province through which her
railway was to run. So Manchuria passed under Rus-
sian domination. Port Arthur and Talienwan were
leased and occupied, and the second step in the par-
tition of China was taken precipitately under the in-
fluence of the alarm created by the occupation of Kiao-
Chau. Since then the work of demolishing the pow^er
and prestige of the Chinese StatL* luv ^one merrily on,
until at last we have detachments of German, Russian
and English soldiers marching into the city of Pekin
to supply a garrison, minute but significant, to the
very capital itself.

AVhat is going to be the end of all this? it is a
question which it is well worth asking, although it is
not much thought of amid the eager rush of conces-
sionnaires and the tramp of armed men. Is the great
Yellow Reservoir of humanity at last about to be
forced to burst its banks and overflow the world ? That
is of course a possibility, regarded by General Gordon
for instance, and by many of the shrewdest observers,
as a probability of which it is surely well to take ac-
count. It has hitherto hardly seemed to be an object
devoutly to be desired by the AVhite World, but it may
be inevitable and in the order of the universe. But if
the Yellow Man is to become no longer a fixed but a
soluble element in this teacup of a world, are we quite
so sure that the infusion of this new and immense

<h It

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328

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

ingredient will altogether improve the flavor of the
beverage — that it is either wise or prudent to stir it
about so vigorously wath ambassadorial teaspoons?
Above all — to change the figure — is it necessary to
blast breaches in the banks of the Yellow Reservoir
by all the explosives of modern armaments? If ever
there were a situation in which experience and pru-
dence combine to teach us to " go slow," it is the posi-
tion of China to-day. But that is not exactly the
order of the day in Pekin Embassies.

AVhat is likely to follow the break up of the long
sleep of the Far East? There have been numerous
more or less fantastic descriptions of the Yellow Peril.
AYe are all familiar enough with pictures of the Yellow
Man with the White JMoney destroying Lancashire by
Chinese competition, and ultimately installing himself
as millionaire master of the castles and palaces of those
splendid paupers, the aristocracy of Britain. Still
more recentl}^ \rr. Shell sketched in gore his vision of
a myriad host of YelloAV Men pouriiig forth bent on
the extermination of the AVhiteskiu. But neither of
these perils is that which immediately impends. One
of these is more remote, the other is at our doors. The
remote peril is that the White ^lan may perish from
the planet by the superior vitality of the Yellow Man.
The Chinese have no scruples about mixed marriages.
There is less prejudice among white races against mar-
riage with Yellow ^fen than that which undoubtedly
exists against intermarriage with blacks. The Chi-
nese, indeed, by some white women, appear to be pre-

THE IDEAS OF PRiyCE O^CHTOilSKT

329

ferred to men of their own race — for reasons chiefly
physical. But it is stated by those who have watched
the results of the cross between the yellow and the
white, that in the children the white man disappears.
Ths child of a Chinaman is alwavs Chinese, no matter
how white its mother may have l)een. The toughness
and vigor, the virility and vitality of the Yellow Man
overpower the weaker physique of the AVliite Man in
the offspring of a mixed marriage. In the Straits
Settlements, where the Chinese marry with the Ma-
lays, the children lose the ^lalay type of their mother,
and are indistinguishable from pure Chinese. Even
if this, which is attested b}' many observers, be some-
what exaggerated, there is sufficient truth in it to give
the Whiteskin pause when contemplating the diffusion
of the Yellow ]Man. Unless we wish the whole world
to become yellow, it may be worth while keeping the
Yellow ]\ran where he is.

What may be the ultimate consequences of this
blending of the races in which the yellow strain alone
seems able to jiersist, it is easy to speculate but impos-
sible to predict. "What is likely to be the first conse-
quences is not so difficult to foresee. Tho Russians
will be the first European race to receive the yellow
strain into its veins. The Russians assimilate with
Asiatics more easily than any other Europeans. Their
frontier marches Avith that of China for more than
four thousand miles. They have a vast undeveloped
country in Siberia, into which the Chinese will flow
by millions. The Chinese are hard-working, econom-

330

THE UNITED 8TATEH OF EUROPE

< ,1

\ \

ical, and absolutely indifferent to politics. They will
marry and settle and breed, and their offspring will
carry the Chinese strain into the very heart of the
Russian nation. In many ways they will add to it
elements of which it stands in some need. The ma-
terialism of the Chinese would be a corrective of the
somewhat dreary mysticism of the Russian, and his
sobriety and thrift would not be an undesirable addi-
tion to the moral and economic outfit of the moujik.
It is therefore by no means improbable, even if the
partition of China were stayed, that the opening up
of Siberia by the railway, and the extent to which
China has already been upset, will result in the conver-
sion of the Russia as we know it to-day into a mixed
Russo-Chinese Empire — the possible sceptre by which
Asia may rule Europe, and avenge in the twenty-first
century the humiliations which she has received from
the White Man since the days of Clive and Hastings
even until now.

That, however, is remote. Of more immediate and
pressing importance is the deliberate attempts which
Christendom is making to inoculate the Yellow Race
with the destructive virus of militarism. This is the
real crime against China — and against ourselves —
which we seem to be preparing in the Far East. What
irony of coincidence ! The Tsar summons all nations
to a great Parliament of Peace, declaring that " to put
an end to these incessant armaments, and to seek the
means of warding off the calamities which are threat-
ening the whole world, such is the supreme duty which

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THE IDEAH OF PRINCE OUCIITOMSKY

331

is to-day imposed on all States." And at the same
time, by way of a practical illustration of the earnest-
ness with which the Christian nations believe the
maxims of the Prince of Peace and follow the counsels
of the Emperor, they are busily engaged in preparing
to inflict upon China the very curse from which they
pray to be freed in Europe. What a spectacle for the
mocking gods is this contrast between precept in
Europe and practice in Asia!

There are at this moment about as many millions of
Yellow Men in the world as of White Men. There
are many differences between the two races besides
that of the color of their skins. The chief difference
between the Yellow mass of humanitv and the White
is that the former is disarmed and the latter is armed.
China is not an armed State. It is rather a flock of
helpless sheep penned within the ancient walls of the
Eastern sheepfold, without ironclads, without Max-
ims, without any of the armaments of the Western
world. The Chinese is the Empire of Peace. The
Yellow Man is the only denizen of this planet who
genuinely dislikes and despises the art of war. The
Whi.e Man, whatever religion he may profess, is au
fond a fighting man. " 'Daten! 'Daten! " is the uni-
versal cry of the White-skinned child, though in the
case of thg Quakers the military instinct is sometimes
exorcised. There is no AVhite-skinned race that is or-
ganized on a basis as strictly pacific as is that of China.
By the Chinese the soldier is regarded with something
of the contempt felt only for the slave in the White

h!\. ' '

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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

World. For a time this was concealed by the chevaux
tie frise of modern European-built ironclads and can-
non by which the Chinese masked their real sheep-like
character. It was assumed that they could fight. It
is now known that they cannot fight, and would not
if they could. The Yellow World is disarmed. And
so the White World, with loud praises of disarmament
on its lips, promptly proceeds to eat it up. N^ot very
encouraging this for the war against war and the
crusade against armaments.

For a couple of years past the bubonic plague has
been raging in Bombay. It is said that the virus of
the pestilence was conveyed to the Indian seaport by
a cargo of rice carried in the hold of a vessel which
had previously been loaded with dead Chinamen. It
is a gruesome illustration of how contagion spreads
from land to land. But the prospect before us in
China far exceeds in horror the results which followed
the inoculation of Bombav with the virus of the bu-
bonic plague. For what we are apparently now about
to witness is a horrible and hideous inoculation of the
whole Yellow Race with the deadly virus of that very
militarism from which the Tsar has just exhorted us
all to try to escape. The Yellow World, being on the
whole health V and sane, has hitherto contrived to live
and thrive without subjecting itself to the ruinous
burden of modern armaments or the blood-tax of uni-
versal military service. N^ot even the attempt, per-
sisted in for thirty years, to inoculate the Chinese with
military passion by providing them with ironclads and

^ i

THE IDEA^ OF PRINCE OiCIITOMSKY

333

lield-ginis succeeded in infecting the character of the
population. It remains inveterately peaceful, with
no warlike ambitions which could not find ample satis-
faction in the painting of a dragon's head upon a paste-
board shield. So now, finding all other means to fail,
the European Powers are beginning to lay violent
hands upon the pacific Yellow Man, and by sheer force
are about to compel him to become a soldier in spite
of himself.

The Germans will drill and discipline into fighting
men the peaceful peasants of Shantung. The English
in Wei-TIai-AVei, if ever they do anything in that un-
fortunate station, will also drill and discipline and
teach the Yellow Men to love war and eschew peace —
even as do the Christian White Men who are taking
them in hand. So also in their turn w^ll the Russians
pass the Manchurians through the military mill. And
thus it will come to pass that the most pacific race on
earth will be trained like fighting-cocks by their White
masters, in order that they may shed their blood like
warriors in the cockpit of the Middle Kingdom. The
partition of China means the compulsory training of
hundreds of thousands of Chinamen in warfare, the
grafting of a military habit upon the inveterately
pacific and laborious population of the Middle King-
dom.

The partition of China, begun by the seizure of
Kiao-Chau, under the more or less hypocritical plea
that such reparation was due for the murder of two
missionaries, will be followed by the arming of China.

yat

THE I SITED ^STATES OF ELROVE

The drill scrgoaiit, who in Kgypt has " made a hlack
man white, and made a mnmmy fight," will find less
difficulty in China. Nor need he fear that he will not
find enough work for his recruits. In China at pres-
ent, indeed, from the Russian frontier on the north
to the borders of Burma and Siam on the south,
there reigns unbroken peace. The Government at
Pekin may \.^ corrupt. ^landarins here and there
may be restless and ambitious. But the Chinese main-
tain peace among one-third of the inhabitants of the
world with a less effective military force than that
which answers for law and order in the little island
of Ireland. But once the principle of splUterang is
introduced — once the unity of the Chinese Empire is
shattered as it is being shattered to-day — and who can
estimate the number of armed men it will be necessary
to maintain along the frontiers of the French and
German, Russian and English States? To maintain
that unity, to check, or at least postpone, the tendency
to artificially hew it inl ^ostile prtectorates, is surely
the supreme duty of all Christian States.

In India the case is altogether different. In that
great peninsula the English did not find at their advent
that the land was slumbering in the peace which broods
over the Yellow World. The Bengalee may be as
pacific as John Chinaman, but the whole land was
filled with fighting men. Eierce marauders from the
hills and the soldiers of standing armies abounded
on every side. There was anarchy, there was war.
Everywhere were armaments, public and private. By

THE IDEAS OF PltlNCE OUCH TOM SKY

885

our conquest wo onded all that. AVo maintain an
army in India of 74,000 whites and 145,000 natives
— a mere police force among 200,000,000 of human
beings. This is possible only because there is unity
of authority. Had we not driven the French out of
Hindustan the standing* army of India would hnv(^ had
to be multiplied many times. Unity of administration,
the absence of all rivals within the Empire, renders
possible the reduction of our armament to a minimum.
The Empire of India is therefore an Emnire of Dis-
armament, and its existence enormously diminishes
the number of men who would otherwise spend their
lives in the practice of preparation for homicide. If,
however, the European Powers partition Cliina, ex-
actly the reverse will take place. Fpon an Empire of
Peace will be superimposed a congeries of Protector-
ates of War. There will be no unitv of administration.

There will be constant rivalry. And the result will
be that, after China has been converted from a scene
of peaceful industry into a vast barracks, it will some
day be a very Aceldama in which the rival passions of
European nations will slake themselves in the blood
of the unfortunate Chinese, whom, in the name of
Christian civilization, they have manufactured into
efficient fighting men.

Now the supreme question for us all to ask is
whether anything can be done to avert so appalling
a catastrophe, which affords so cynical a comment
upon our professions? Substitute for slavery mili-
tarism, and we may quote Lowell's verse without the

336

THB UNITED STATEii OF EUROPE

alteration of a syllable as an appeal to White Men in
view of the disaster which they are preparing to inflict
upon their Yellow brethren : —

Slavery the earth-born Cyclops, fellest of the giant brood,
Sons of brutish force and darkness who have drenched the

earth with blood.
Famished in his self-made desert, blinded by our purer day.
Gropes in yet unblasted regions for his miserable prey.
Shall we guide his gory fingers where our helpless children

play?

Whatever else is done or left undone in China, the
infliction upon the Yellow World of the burden which
we find almost insupportable by the whites would be
a superfluity of naughtiness for which there is no
excuse.

To avoid the perpetration of so vast a crime affect-
ing, not a single state, but one-third of the human
race, it is absolutely necessary to modify the policy
which has hitherto been pursued in China. It is not
necessary to indulge in any fantastic dreams about a
regenerated China. Neither is it altogether pleasant
to remember what regeneration has meant in the case
of another yellow race. The Japanese have adopted
European civi^ -nation, with the result that they have
been already almost ruined by the immense arma-
ments with w4iich they have hastened to equip them-
selves. There is no part of European civilization
which is so easily assumed as that Avhich takes the shape
of ]\raxims and ironclads. Militarism is the alcoholism
of nations, and Japan is the drunken helot of the East.
She is mortgaging her resources and taxing her people

THE IDEAS OF PRINCE OUCHTOMSKY

337

to the bone in order to create a gigantic Heet which,
when created, will be impotent to realize her ambi-
tions. But although we may not believe that if the
Chinese Emperor had not been summarily put in the
corner by the Dowager Empress, the Chinese Empire
would suddenly have renewed its youth, there is still
no necessity to assume that we shall wake up some fine
morning and find that the Chinese Government has
vanished into space. I have often quoted, and I will
quote again, the excellent saying quoted by Mr. Nas-
sau Senior as to the folly of supposing that empires
which have lasted for many centuries are about to dis-
appear because for the moment they seem to be in
extremis.

" Old empires," said the statesman to whom Mr.
Senior was talking, " are like the country carts which
you meet on a difficult bit of road in remote districts.
Their wooden, ungreased whec^i creak and groan,
there is enough evidence of stress and strain and noise
to make you think that the whole thing will next mo-
ment go to pieces. But next day you find the same
cart apparently none the worse going its rounds. So
it is with these old empires. They seem to be going
to pieces, but they will outlast our time."

It was a word of sound wisdom. Uttered originally
about the Turkish power, it applies still more forcibly
to the Chinese Empire. It may seem to-day to be in
arliculo mortis; but we may de])end upon it that long
after all of us are dead and buried there will be a Chi-
nese Government of some kind or other controlling

ill
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338

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

' I

. 1

the affairs of the Yellow "World. That is, of course,
if it is not violently put hors de combat by an attack
from without. Hence, however weak, however cor-
rupt, however miserable the Chinese Government may
be, we have got to reckon with it — to get on with it,
and, in short, to make the most of it and the best of it,
instead of making the worst of it. Unfortunately, for
some years past the Ambassadors of the Powers at
Pekin appear to have been doing their level best to
make the worst of it, to weaken and destroy the pres-
tige of the central power, with the result that the one
agency from which any help can be obtained in over-
coming the forces and prejudice of fanaticism and of
savagery is at present in a fair way to be rendered
utterly useless.

The Government of a state, it has been well said,
is like the heart in a human body. Upon its regular
action depends the life of the whole community.
When the heart is weak the circulation is affected,
especially at the extremities. That is the case with
the Chinese Government. It is weak, and its weak-
ness is felt in every province. But notwithstanding
its weakness it is the only element of moral strength in
the whole Empire. When the railways, for construct-
ing which concessions are being so eagerly sought,
come to be built in reality across Chinese territory, the
very men who are now abusing and denouncing the
Tsi" g-li-Yamen ^vill be the very first to appeal to them
for assistance! Why then, in the name of common
sense, should we allow our Ambassadors to bully and

TUE IDEIIS OF PRryCE OUVHTOMSKY

yyo

■y

browbeat tlic imfortiinate mandarins as they have been
doing lately? Granting everything that can be said
as to the corruption, the duplicity, the general God-
forsakenness of the Tsung-li-Yanien, what good has
come of all the hectoring and storming of the Mac-
Donalds and Pavloffs and Iley kings? It is not as if
the Chinese Government, like that of the Sultan, had
any strength in it. It has not, and it knows it has not.
Any of the great Powers has only to ask and to have
if it chooses, — no, not merely to ask, but to demand.
The Tsung-li-Yam.en is helpless, and it knows it.
China is no longer an armed state. It is disarmed and
powerless. As a British journalist remarked to me
the other day, who had himself ridden across Mongolia,
one thousand armed men could ride easily through the
whole Empire. Nevertheless, this powerless, derided,
browbeaten Tsung-li-Yamen have lost none of its pres-
tige in the interior of the country. The dim myriad
millions of Yellow Men know nothing of the extra-
ordinary antics of the Foreign Devils at Pekin. Here
and there a Viceroy of a province may have his eyes
open to what is going on, and in that way civil war
may arise. But the Pekin Government in still the only
power with any moral authority that is felt throughout
the Chinese Empire. AVhy should we not recognize
this fact, and instead of endeavoring to revolutionize
it by the aid of Kang-yu-'\Vei or browbeating it by Sir
Claude MacDonald and his marines, — why should we
not endeavor in real earnest to make friends with the
Chinese, to work with them instead of working against

Nr^!'

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B40

THE UNITED tSTATES OF EUROPE

them, and in short to do whatever good feeling and
common sense can suggest for averting the break-up
and partition of the Chinese State?

The best solution of the difficulty presented by the
continually increasing pressure of the outside world
upon the ancient Chinese social order would be arrived
at if the Dowager Empress and the Powers could agree
upon appointing a trustworthy white man as the For-
eign Secretary of the Chinese Empire, through whom
all negotiations should proceed in all matters relating
to foreigners. If, for example. Sir Robert Hart had
been a younger man, what could be desired more than
that he should have been transferred from the Chinese
Customs to the Chinese Foreign Office, and given the
full Imperial authority to hold the balance even among
the crowds of rival contestants for concessions, leases,
etc.? If there were a Russian Sir Robert Hart,
Britain might be well content to see him in such an
office. For things have reached such a pass in the
Tsung-li-Yamen that there is no centre of resistance
to any demand, no matter how monstrous it may be,
if only it be pressed with sufficient force by any of the
great Powers. And it w^ould be better for the whites to
have to deal with any man of their ow^n skin, no matter
what nationality he was, so long as he was admittedly
just and honest, than to deal with a group of cowering
yellow men who do not understand half that is said to
them, who of necessity lie all round, and who yield
like a swinging door to every thrust from the outside.

Unfortunately, this suggestion of a White Foreign

THE IDEAS OF PRINCE OUCHTOMSKY

341

Secretary for China, approved by all the Powers and
nominated by the Dowager Empress, on condition that
he managed all the affairs of the Foreign Devils and
left the Chinese absolutely free to govern themselves
as they pleased, is a counsel of perfection. The Pow-
ers would never agree. The Dowager would never
appoint. It would also be difficult, when the three
thousand miles of railway begin to be laid and £28,-
000,000 of foreign capital is invested in Chinese lines,
rigidly to separate foreign and domestic politics in
China. This being so, some other solution must be
sought.

The importance of preventing the break up of
China is equally obvious to Russia as to ourselves, and
the problem may find a readier response at St. Peters-
burg than in London. The Russians have gazetted
M. Pavloff to Korea. His successor, M. de Giers, will
have orders to go slow. Li Hung Chang, although
nominally out of office, is still the power behind the
throne. The Dowager Empress, it is evident, is no
mere puppet, like the mandarins of the Tsung-li-
Yamen, to be bullied with impunity. A great oppor-
tunity lies open to the Power which will first and with
frank sincerity proclaim itself the protector of the
Chinese against further aggression. There would be
no need of any formal treaty or any alliance. All
that would be necessary would be for the foreign
Power, whichever it may be, to declare its determina-
tion to oppose all dem mds on China which it con-
sidered unjust, and to exercise the task of adjudicating

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upon the justice of such demands with impartiality
and intelligence. Such a Minister at Pekiu would
soon acquire the ascendency of the Great Eltchi at
Constantinople before the Crimean War. If, for in-
stance, an Ambassador personally sympathetic with
the Chinese were sent to replace Sir C. MacDonald
at Pekin, and if he were to make it the avowed prin-
ciple of his policy to support the Dowager Empress in
opposing every demand which a competent expert, say
a man like Sir Robert Hart, were to declare to be pre-
judicial to the integrity and independence of the Chi-
nese Emj)ire, how long would it be before the Chinese
mandarins would huddle beneath our protecting wings
as chickens flock to the hen when the shadow of the
hawk crosses the yard?

These considerations are equally obvious to the Rus-
sian Government, which may easily forestall us in
their application. Russia has no eager concession-
naires pounding away in newspapers and in Parlia-
ment to assail her Foreign Minister if he does not use
ironclads to extort concessions. Russia has already
nominated her new Minister at Pekin. Li Hung
Chang is by no means indisposed to welcome from
Russia more sympathetic treatment than he has re-
ceived from M. Pavloff. And if the Tsar should de-
cide upon assuming the role of friendly protector of
the Chinese Government, he has in Prince Ouch-
tomsky an admirable agent, who, as unofficial Euro-
pean adviser to Li Hung Chang, would soon bring
about the Russo-Chinese entente.

TUE IDEAS OF PRIXCE OUCUTOMSKY

343

When we read the following passage from Prince
Oiiclitonisky's book describing the Eastern tour of the
present Emperor we seem to hear the voice of Mr.
Blnnt — with a Chinese accent: —

China, so far as work and patience are concerned, is a
uniquely great nation. It has produced a Confucius and
numbers a thinlcer like Lao-tse amongst the ranks of its
philosophers. It is a State which has elevated to the high-
est point of perfection and simplicity both the cult of the
monarchic principle and the reverence for those ancestors
declared by the nation to be worthy of immortality. This
country is our best neighbor, and the neighbor most like
ourselves because of its conservative inclinations and
qualities.

Every Russian knows that a handful of soldiers from our
army would suffice to reduce to subjection the whole of
China. But if we did so it would perhaps result in Russia's
comparative youth and energy, her ideals and creative rest-
lessness, slowly withering away. But still more harmful
would it be to give the Western nations absolute control
over China in her for the present helpless condition.

He is objected to at the Russian Eoreign Office as
being " too Chinese for anything." lie is a personal
friend of Li Ilung Chang, and, as he is profoundly
impressed by the perils of breaking up the Chinese
Empire, he would work hand and glove with the Chi-
nese Government in maintaining the status quo.

However that may be, the Chinese problem remains
before us, fraught with immense possibilities for evil
to mankind. The one solution that seems absolutely
the worst is its partition into an anarchic congeries of
armed states under the guidance of rival European

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Powers. The one thing to be aimed at is the main-
tenance of the unity whicli enables one-third of the
human race to live and labor in peace without the aid
of Maxims and ironclads. Rather than sacrifice that
unity, I for my part would welcome a protectorate of
China by any one European power, subject to three
conditions — free trade, free religion and no arma-
ments. As the status quo gives us all three, is it
not worth while making an effort to prevent its
destruction?

CHAPTEK VII

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

Nicholas II., the Tsar of Kussia, who to-day is what
the Americans would call the '' banner-bearer in the
canse of Peace," is a soldier, a Colonel in the Russian
army, and the honorary Colonel of a regiment in the
English army. He is the first Russian Sovereign who
has received an honorary command in the British
army, and his appointment was due to the direct per-
sonal initiative of Her Majesty the Queen. Sir Henry
Campbell-Bannerman was in those days Secretary of
"War, when his Royal mistress intimated that her fa-
vorite grandson must have an honorary command in
the army of the Queen. Sir Henry Campbell-Ban-
nerman is a practical man, and the canny Scot saw
no end of difficultie in the way of such a departure
from precedent. He pointed out to the Queen that
it would be easy to ma lie the Tsar an honorary Colonel
in the army, but that would only be the beginning
of trouble. All the other crowned heads would con-
sider themselves slighted unless they were equally pro-
moted to honorary colonelcies. Therefore, he said, it
was quite impossible. The Queen listened to his ex-
postulations, and said : " It may be impossible, but it

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will have to be done all the same " — and done it was.
But it was the opening of the door, for the next year
the Junperor of Austria received a similar distinction.
The Enij^eror is also a a officer in his own navy, and
usually v/ears uniform.

The first time I saw him he was in military uniform,
and the second time in naval, for it was the day on
which he was about to start for Sebastopol to review
the fleet. lie entered the army when he was eighteen,
and made himself an efficient officer, although he
never displayed any passion for soldiering. Consider-
ing the way in which he was brought up by his father,
it was not likely that he would develop any. Alex-
ander III. had made one campaign before he came to
the throne, and the impression left upon him of the
miseries and brutalities which follow inevitably in the
train even of a liberating war made him determined
that, come what might, during his reign Kussia should
sleep in peace. The late Tsar was never so happy as
when he was disporting himself with his children, far
from the cares of state. At these times he was ever
wont to impress upon the young folks his horror and
detestation of war. He would tell them anecdotes of
what he had seen when in Bulgaria, and always with
the same object. His mind was filled with the seamy
side of campaigning; the pride, pomp, and circum-
stance of " glorious war " had no fascinations for him.
He had seen his soldiers perish in the winter snows of
the Balkans; he had witnessed all the squalid reality
of the campaign in Bulgaria, and his anecdotes always

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847

pointed the same moral, viz., that war was dreadful,
horrible, and inhuman. "May (»od keep you," he
used to add with great earnestness, '' from ever seeing
it, or from ever drawing a sword."

Nicholas II., the Emperor of Peace, is the son of
Alexander III., the Peace-giver of Europe. Alex-
ander III. was the son of Nicholas I., who was recog-
nized for many years as the Chief Justice of the Con-
tinent, and he succeeded Alexander I., a man who,
although best known in this country as the head of the
Continental Alliance which enabled us to triumph in
the long death-struggle with Napoleon, was in his lat-
ter years passionately devoted to peace. It was in
order to establish European Peace upon a firm foun-
dation of Christian principle that he joined with the
King of Prussia and the Emperor of Austria in pro-
claiming the Holy Alliance, one of the first attempts
which was ever deliberately made by three great Euro-
pean Sovereigns to establish the tranquillity of Europe
upon the basis of the Gospel. Their method may have
been mistaken, and they may have done more harm
than good, but no one can doubt the sincerity of the
Emperor Alexander and his passionate desire to make
an end of war. He had seen his capital ablaze, and
he had led his victorious troops in triumph into the
capital of France; but when he left Paris after peace
was made he was dominated by the same intense loath-
ing of war which reappeared in Alexander III. Those
who are interested in the subject will find the story
of the Iloly Alliance told truthfully and sympatheti-

348

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cally in " The Life and Letters of Madame de Kru-
dener." Five years later a wortiiy Quaker, Stephen
Grellet, visited St. Petersburg, and received from
Alexander a warm and sympathetic welcome. The
Emperor told the good Friend how, when he was quite
a hoy, Prince Alexander Galitzin had given him a
Bible, and recommended him to read it. He devoured
it eagerly, and laid the foundation of a character to
which, after many backslidings and many failures,
Iladame de Krudener was able to appeal with tri-
umphant success in her evangelistic mission. Grellet
reports that he talked long and much v 'th the Em-
peror upon religious matters; and then occurs a very
remarkable passage which is well worth recalling at
the present time: —

We entered pretty fully into the nature of the peaceable
kingdom of Christ, and to what the spirit of the dear Re-
deemer, who is love, would lead all who are obedient to its
dictates, on which he stated how great his soul's desire
and travail had been that wars and bloodshed might cease
for ever from the earth; that he had passed sleep -ss nights
on account of it, deeply deploring the woes and misery
brought on humanity by war; and that whilst his mind was
bowed before the Lord in prayer the plan of all the crowned
heads joining in the conclusion to submit to arbitration
whatever differences might arise among them, instead of
resorting to the sword, had presented itself to his mind in
such a manner that he rose from bed and wrote what he
then so sensibly felt — that his intention" had been misunder-
stood or misrepresented by some, but th£.t love to God and
man was his only motive in the Divine sight. He was In
Paris at the time he formed that plan.

The ^vriting to which the Emperor referred was un-

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

349

doubtcdly the famous proclamation of the Holy Alli-
ance. " The fundamental thought of the Emperor
Alexander," says " Clarence Ford," Madame de Kru-
dener's biographer, " was the foundation of an inter-
national law founded on Christianity, which should
unite on a single broad basis all the Churches of
Europe, Catholic and Orthodox, Protestant and Angli-
can. This, the Tsar believed, would lay the founda-
tion-stone of that era of universal peace which it had
been his life-long dream to establish throughout
Europe." Laharpe, his old tutor, who had little sym-
pathy wuth the Evangelical enthusiasm of the Tsar's
later years, wrote: "Although intrepid in the midst
of danger, Alexander held war in abhorrence. Fully
realizing the abuses which excited the discontent of
nations, he hoped that in the course of the long peace
European Governments, recognizing the necessity of
undertaking reforms demanded by the requirements
of the century, would seriously set themselves to the
task. To attain this object a profound tranquillity
was necessary." It is worth wdiile recalling these facts
to show that Nicholas II. is in the true line of succes-
sion, and that in his latest Rescript he is but reverting
to principles which were affirmed by his predecessor,
Alexander I., at the very moment when the crowning
victory had been achieved which gave Kussia the same
preeminence on the Continent that Great Britain had
on the sea.

The Tsar is said to have declared that he hoped he
would not only be Nicholas II., but the second Xich-

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■Si

olas, for the memory of the Tsar against whom our
fathers warred in the Crimea and the Baltic is held in
high regard by patriotic Russians. There is, however,
not much of the element that made l^icholas disliked
outside Russia in his young namesake. It is probable
that he takes more after his grandfather Alexander
II., whose ideas he has Inherited, and to whose memory
he has just unveiled the imposing monument which
has been reared in the Kremlin. Alexander II. was
a man who concealed a great tenacity of purpose under
an appearance that did not exactly give the idea of
strength. In some respects he was weak, but in rela-
tion to the main purpose and the chief work of his
reign — the emancipation of the serfs — his constancy
could not have been greater if he had been made of
iron. One who knew him well told me that she re-
membered how he used to sit in the midst of cynical
and critical counsellors who were bent upon thwarting
his will and ])reventing emancipation. All the while
he would sit silent, with a far-away look in his eyes,
as if he saw things Avhich others did not see, and at
the end of the Council he would simply affirm his un-
shaken resolution to put the thing through. And
put through it was, all gainsayers to the contrary not-
withstanding. So it may be with Nicholas II.
lie has put his hand to a still vaster task than that
which tested the power of his grandfather, and it
will be well if he brings to the work some of the
adamantine firmness, almost stolidity, of his father.
For when Alexander III. said u thing, that thing

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

351

diile

s un-

And

not-

II.
that
d it

the
ther.
hing

was. When he put his foot down, there it
stayed.

It may save some of my confreres some trouble and
the Imperial household a considerf'ble nuisance if I
explain simply, once for all, how it was I caine to be
privileged with the opportunity of discussing public
questions face to face in frank and friendly conver-
sation with the Ruler of Russia.

It was not until 1888 that I first thought it possible
I might have a good square talk with the Tsar. I was
then editor of the Fall Mall Gazette, and by the vig-
orous method in which I had championed the Russian
cause during the Penjdeh dispute and afterwards, I
had succt 3ded in establishing for myself a more or less
recognized position as a " Russian organ." I was
abused as a Russian agent, I was said to be in the
pay of the Russian Embassy, and, in short, I enjoyed
the distinction of being pelted by all the vituperative
brickbats which came handiest to those gentlemen who
did me the honor to disagree with me. I need hardly
say, at this time of day, that these complimentary as-
sertions were, well — about as accurate as the majority
of the statements which serve as the stock-in-trade of
the Russophobist. Ever since I first wielded a pen
as journalist I had been the faithful and resolute advo-
cate of an Anglo-Russian entente. I got my ideas on
this subject originally from Richard Cobden's political
writings when I v quite a boy, and I have not de-
parted from them a hair's breadth ever since. Never-
theless, although I have never received any communi-

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cation from the Russian Government, and although I
had often sought in vain even the most ordinary facili-
ties in the way of acquiring information, the ordinary
British Philistine got it firmly fixed into his thick
head that in some way or other I was the officious, if
not the official and inspired organ of the Tsar.

The more I reflected upon i e consequences which
might follow from this abcurd misconception of the
actual state of things, the more necessary it seemed
that I should make an effort to ascertain at first hand
from the Emperor himself the general drift of his
policy in all matters likely to affect the relations be-
tween the two Empires. The possibility of altogether
misleading British opinion by putting forward my own
ideas of Russian policy, and having them accepted in-
stantly, despite all my disclaimers, as the authoritative
expression of the views of the Russian Government,
seemed to me to justify an attempt to ascertain directly
from the Emperor what his policy actually was. Ma-
dame N^ovikoff, with whom I had had the pleasure and
privilege of working in this good cause for ten years
or more, was good enough to obtain me a reception at
Gatschina in the earlv summer of 1888. AVhen I met
the Tsar, I put the case frankly before Alexander III.,
pointing out the danger of having accorded to me a
position to which I had no claim, and suggesting that
as I could not, despite all my disclaimers, rid myself
of the reputation of being his Englit^li organ, it would
at least be safer if he could give me more or less defin-
ite information as to what were his ideas upon the

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

353

questions which were involved in the relations between
England and Eussia. The Emperor thought a little,
and then said he considered the suggestion reasonable.
What, he asked, did I want to know? " Everything,"
I replied, at which he smiled and said, " Ask what
questions you please, and I will answer them if I can."
I availed myself of the opportunity to the full, and the
Emperor was as good as his word. I asked, he an-
swered, and by the time that the interview was over I
had received a comprehensive and definite exposition,
direct from the Emperor's own lips, of the p licy he
intended to pursue in relation to all the questions in
which England was interested.

Sir Robert Morier, our then Ambassador at St.
Petersburg, speaking of this interview, said that no
Kussian Emperor had ever spoken so freely and fully
upon all questions of foreign policy to any English-
man, and he added that he could not conceive of any
circumstances better calculated to secure absolute can-
dor on the part of the Tsar than those in which our
interview took place.

A good deal that the Emperor told me was much
questioned at the time. I was ridiculed for my credu-
lity. One eminent statesman told me flatly that he
did not believe what the Emperor had said, and he
laughed me to scorn for my simplicity in accepting his
word. But time passed, and the result proved that in
every single item the Tsar had stated exactly the course
which he actually pursued. So signal a vindication

of the trustworthiness of the communications made to
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me on that occasion was afforded by the subsequent
events of his reign, that when it came to its close the
same statesman who had derided me for my credulity,
told me in the handsomest manner that he had been
entirely wrong, and that I had been absolutely right.

I must confess that I look back to that episode in my
career with considerable satisfaction. There was no
undertaking expressed or implied that I would support
the policy of the Emperor. He asked nothing from
me. I onlv asked from him the exact trath in order
that I might avoid misleading my countrymen. lie
told me the exact truth, and as a result during all the
rest of his reign I was able to speak with absolute cer-
tainty where all the rest of my colleagues were com-
pelled to rely upon inference and conjecture. I had
no occasion to oppose his policy. It coincided with
the policy which I have been advocating indepen-
dentlv for vears. But if I had differed from it, I
never felt myself under the slightest obligation to ab-
stain from opposing it to the uttermost of my ability.

AVhen I was taking my leave of the Emperor, he
was good enough to say that if at any time unforeseen
difficulties should arise between Russia and England,
he would be glad to see me again. " See M. Giers,"
he said, " and arrange this before you go back to Eng-
land." There was, however, no occasion for me to
avail myself of this invitation. As long as Alexander
III. lived there were no difficulties necessitating an-
other pilgrimage to Gatschina.

It was not until the dispute about the future of

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355

China began to be acute that I felt that I was justified
in recalling the Emperor's invitation. I did not know,
of course, whether Nicholas II. would be willing to see
me, but I thought it well, under the circumstances,
to recall his father's promise, and to inquire whether
or not he would accord me the same privilege of
frank and direct communication. The answer was
in the affirmative: and that was why I went to
Livadia.

It is obvious, therefore, that there was no question
here of an ordinary or extraordinary newspaper inter-
view. Equally of course there could be no question
of the publication of any report of the conversation
that took place. All that I can say is that Nicholas II.
received me with cordiality and accorded me facilities
equal to those I received from his father for ascertain-
ing exactly what his ideas were upon the questions
which now or at any other future time might endanger
the friendly relations of our two countries. As to
what he said I can of course say nothing here, except-
ing to affirm in the strongest possible terms my abso-
lute conviction that the Emperor is as passionately
devoted to peace as was his father, and that in no point
of the whole range of his policy is there any antago-
nism whatever between his aims and the interests of
the British Empire. And as I do not say this without
having had ample opportunities of informing myself
as to the aims and objects of the foreign policy of Her
Majesty's Government, I have a right to feel that I
have indeed brought back from Livadia glad tidings

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of great joy, promising peace to the world and good-
will to England.

The day after I arrived at Yalta in the Crimea, as I
was returning to the Hotel de Russie, a Russian lady
whom I had casually met on the steamer the previous
day greeted me pleasantly. " So you are going to
see the Emperor to-morrow? It is very pleasant for
you. T congratulate you on your good fortune." I
was somewhat confused. I had said nothing to any
living soul about my request for an audience with the
Tsar. I did not even know my application had been
granted. Yet hero was this stranger proclaiming the
fact as if it w^as the talk of the town. On reaching
my room, I found a card making an appointment with
the Emperor, and the mystery was explained. Gen-
eral Ilesse had called, and, not finding me in, had left
the card with the proprietor of the hotel.

It was the first contrast that struck me between my
visit to the late Tsar at Gatschina and my reception by
his son at Livadia. At St. Petersburg in 1888, for
some reason or other, it was held to be necessary to
preserve the most absolute silence about the fact that
I had been admitted to talk face to face with the Em-
peror of all the Russias. So well was the secret kept
that on the very day I was received at Gatschina, when
the wife of the German Ambassador was expressing
to the wife of the British Ambassador her pitying com-
passion for the inevitable disappointment of my pre-
sumptuous aspiration to see the Tsar, it was thought
inexpedient to undeceive her. Until the day the Tsar

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357

died, I never permitted myself to state in print that I
had even so much as spoken to him. The first state-
ment that was ever published that I had seen the
Emperor appeared twelve months after my visit, and
it did not come out through any act of mine. It was
when the German Emperor paid his first visit to St.
Petersburg that the story got about. It was one of
the jokes of the Russian Court that I was the only
man who had ever dismissed the Tsar. Alexander
III. was much amused at inv unwitting' breach of
court etiquette, and told the story to his German vis-
itors, through whom it found its way into th'- press.

I shall never forget the expression of mingled hor-
ror and amusement on Sir Robert M orier's face when,
on returning from Gatschina to the British Embassy,
I told him how the interview had terminated. " You
don't mean to say you dismissed the Emperor! " he
exclaimed. " It's perfectly monstrous! " " Well," I
said, " I don't know about that. But I knew the Em-
press had been kept waiting for her lunch for half an
hour or more. As I had got through all the questions
I washed to put to the Tsar, I got up, thanked him
for his patience and kindness, and said I would not
detain him any longer." " You did, did you? " said
Sir Robert. " Don't you know it is an unpardonable
breach of etiquette even to stir from your seat till the
Sovereign gives you the signal to rise?" "I knew
nothing about that," I replied. " I only knew that,
when I saw the Emperor smile as he got up, I had
been an idiot for my considerateness. If I had only

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sat still, lie iiiiglit liuve gone on talking for another
half hour; and one does not talk to an Emperor every
day."

I was somewhat consoled for my simplicity when in
Paris the other day I was told that President Paure
had committed the same mistake when he met our
Queen in the South of Prance. Instead of waiting to
be dismissed, he rose first, to the amazement and even,
it is said, disjoleasure on the part of Royalty. M.
Paure apparently heard of his faux pas, and promptly
determined to make up for his mistake by himself
adopting t le Koyal etiquette. N^ow at the Elysee,* no
matter how great may be the personage who is received
by the President, he must not dare to rise until M.
Paure gives the signal. The innovation is not alto-
gether regarded with favor by the more austere Repub-
licans, but their number is few. So M. Paure, the
quondam tanner, becomes more and more like Louis
Quatorze every day. Sic iiur ad asfra!

The homely sim})licity of life in Yalta and Livadia
was another contrast not less striking. In 1888 the
Tsar lived more or less under the shadow of assassina-
tion. Ilis father had been blown to pieces in the
streets of the capital, where now a stately church is
being built to commemorate the sacrifice. lie him-
self had narrowly escaped destruction in the catas-
trophe at Borki, where also a gorgeous fane with
gilded dome has been erected as a thank-offering for

When I went down to Gatschina
* This was written in January, 1899.

a great deliverance.

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859

in company with General Iticliter there was every-
where the consciousness of a constantly impending
invisible danger. I had to wait for an hour and
more for the audience, and then I was conducted
through what seemed a furlong of ante-rooms and cor-
ridors and state apartments, a perfect maze of laby-
rinthine perplexity, until at last I was ushered into
the small workroom where Alexander 111. received
me. lie was alone save for the presence of a huge
dog, which had a most uncomfortable habit of jump-
ing up every three minutes and walking backwards
and forwards impatiently in front of the Tsar as if
to intimate that it was time for the visitor to go. It
is true that nothing could be more cordial, more
simple, and more kindly than the Empcior s de-
meanor. But I could not escape from a certain all-
pervading sentiment of awe, which lasted all through
the solitary lunch and the journey home.

How different it was at Livadia! There was no
mystery, no distance, no solitude, no sense of unde-
finable danger. There are few more beautiful spots
in Europe than the neighborhood of Yalta. The drive
to Livadia up hill and down dale, which we took at
breakneck speed, between the mountains and the sea,
is magnificent. The Euxine, not a Black but an azure
Sea, stretches out far below, an immense expanse of
sunlit water, across which flit interminable strings of
birds, migrating southward from the approach of win-
ter. The Mediterranean, seen from the Riviera, never
looked more radiantly beautiful than did the Black

• ■{;

860

T//7? rXTTED fiTATEfi OF EUROPIJ

Sea on the dav wlicn T visited Livadia. On tlie road
you come at every turn upon something quaint and
strange. Xow it is a string of creaking country carts
drawn by diminutive oxen, then it is the curious stage
wagon of the Crimea, like a long double; bench, on
which the passengers sit back to back with their legs
dangling in the air. Suddenly you hear a trampling
of hoofs, and a gay cavalcade of ladies and gentlemen,
splendidly mounted and escorted by picturesque Tar-
tars, gallop by, calling up I know not by what strange
association of ideas a flood of mingled memories of
" The Bride of Abydos," and of the hawking parties
of the ]\riddle Ages. A gilded landmark indicates
the point where the road to Livadia turns to the left
from the high road. The driver removes the bells
from his horse's neck, we show our laissez passer to
the officer in command at the entrance, and then oif
we dash along a road good enough to be made in
France, through the undulating vineyards in the midst
of which Livadia stands. The vineyards are studded
with prettily designed watch-towers from which sol-
diers, standing on sentry, keep a vigilant eye upon all
possible marauders or interlopers. A sailor paces
backward and forward under the Russian flag which
floats high above the trees. A Circassian, apparently
on duty, glances at you as you drive by, but other
traces of vigilance there are none, any more than in
the grounds at Balmoral or in the park at Windsor.

It was at the latter end of October when I was at
Livadia, and the changing color of the vine leaves,

the road
lint and
try carts
►us stage
'neh, on
[leir legs
■anipling
iitlemen,
que Tar-
t strange
iiories of
g parties
indicates
» the left
the bells
passer to
then off
made in
he midst
( studded
hich sol-
upon all
or paces
ig which
)parently
)Ut other
than in
Windsor.
I was at
e leaves,

ON Till-: ]!()A1) KUOM J,IVA1)IA 'JO SKMASTOIMI,

UALAKLAVA, TOWN AND BAY

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

861

varying from the deepest purple to the hue of bur-
nished gold, produced a singularly beautiful effect.
All the grapes were gathered, save those for the table ;
the rest had gone to the wine-press. Alexander III.
being a thrifty man, and keenly alive to the impor-
tance of developing the resources of Russia, paid great
attention to his vinevards; and wines from his vinevard
figure in the wine list in all the hotels of St. Peters-
burg. The hills are well wooded, and the dark foliage
of the plantations contrasted splendidly with the glow-
ing carpet of color that spread over hill and vale down
to the wooded edge of the deep blue sea. Inland, the
mountain tops swathed in clouds formed a fitting back-
ground to the romantic scene. Better site for an
Imperial pleasure house could not be imagined.

There are several houses within tlie park limits;
some ol them hardly distinguishable in appearance
from the Emperor's. They are all of the same general
aspect, and are characterized more by the air of com-
fort and taste than by magnificence. The Emperor's
house is a beautiful country villa, two stories high, with
spacious verandah, plentifully overgrown with foliage,
with wide eaves, standing like a nest among the trees
in a wilderness of flowers. You enter a hall, remark-
abl(> chiefly as the location of the loudest clanging
telephone I ever heard, rest for a few minutes in a
sim])ly furnished waiting-room, and then comes the
summons. You follow an officer a few stairs u]) a
staircase and you are in tlu^ Km]ieror's study. You
might be in an English country hous'^ Everything

f ii

862

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

f'i'

, >

t- I

'■t

is simple and comfortable. The only feature not
quite familiar were the lovely baskets of fruit, which,
both in color and fragrance, added an element unusual
but in delightful harmony with the sylvan character of
the rural retreat.

When at Sebastopol I wrote for the Daily News a
description of the scene on the evening of the Em-
peror's visit to that stronghold, as an introduction to
my report of the impression produced on my mind by
my visit to LiA^adia. As it was written when the im-
pression was deepest, I cannot do better than reproduce

it here: —

Sebabtopol, October 29, 1898.

Last night Sebastopol was enfHe. The Emperor
and Empress had come over in the Imperial yacht
from Yalta to inspect the Black Sea fleet and to meet
the Dowager Empress on her arrival from Copen-
hagen. The yacht was lying opposite the Count's
landing-place, all aglow with electric light. A short
distance further down the harbor lay five battleships
black and grim, their huge bulk looming large across
the gleaming water. Viewed from my balcony, the
scene was singularly beautiful. The moon, now at
her full, shone down from a cloudless sky, flooding
the white city with white light. From the boulevard,
where once frowned the three-tiered rows of the two
hundred and sixty cannon of Fort Xicholas, there
came, as the music rose and fell, throbbing strains of
melody. In the streets the bright lights of the elec-
tric cars shone out here and there through the leafy

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

303

avenue; in the harbor the lynx-eyed patrol-boat, with
its double lamp, steamed ceaselessly round and round
the Imperial yacht, keeping jealous watch, like the
fire-eyed water-snake of fairy legend over the Prince's
bower.

I had crossed that afternoon the battlefield of Bala-
klava, and the site of the famous Flagstaff Battery,
behind which the Russians kept at bay for two years
the allied forces of four nations. Forty-two years ago
the whole south side of the city where I was standing
had been battered into bloodstained, smoking ruin.
Two miles to the northward stood the gray pyramid
erected in the Russian cemetery to the memory of the
tens of thousands of Russian soldiers who died in the
defence of their fatherland against the foreign in-
vader. The ink with which I write this letter is taken
from an inkstand made out of case-shot picked up on
the battlefield. Everywhere some name recalled the
sombre memories of the great crime whereby the long
peace was broken up and the half-century of war was
begun. Two lines came humming through my
head: —

Here, where Murder breathed her bloody steam,
And man was butchered by his fellow man

safy

And wherefore butchered? AVhorofore but because
those who decreed the slaughter wished to destroy
Sebastopol and to forbid Russia being the naval mis-
tress of the Black Soa. Xow Sebastopol is far more
strongly armed than it was in 1853. And the great

304

THE UNITED ^TATEH OF EUROPE

■i

ii ''

1 ';

i; '

ii
I i

;|!lf

floating fortresses of iron and steel anchored in the
harbor make the Tsar the undisputed Lord of the Eux-
ine up to the very gates of the Bosphorus. Everything
is as it was before the war began, only more so — ex-
cepting the hundred thousand gallant soldiers who
died that it may be otherwise than it was written in
the book of fate.

Sebastopol was, half a century since, the Colosseum
of the Continent. But, as in the (Vlosseum a simple
cross reared in the arena once drenched by the blood
of so many martyrs symbolizes the triumph of the
Prince of Peace over the pride and cruelty of Im-
perial Rome, so last night, in the harbor of Sebastopol,
the Tsar's yacht seemed an emblem not less significant
of the triumph of peace. For there, in the midst of
all that could most easily tempt a monarch to swell
with pride at conscious strength or to indulge in bitter
feelings against the enemies who invaded his country,
was the Tsar of Bussia, fresh from reviewing his iron-
clads and inspecting his stronghold, thinking only with
passionate, impatient preoccupation of how he could
best bring about the establishment of the kingdom of
peace. The gladiatorial games went on in the Colos-
seum until the day when i}ie monk Telemachus flung
himself into the arena and sealed his protest with his
life.

If the Tsar is not a Telemachus, a fanatical enthu-
siast, wild with a fixed idea, in pursuit of which he is
ready to sacrifice everything, what may he be? What
is the precise equivalent of this new factor in the sum

THIJ iJMFEROK OF PFACi:

365

of the forces which govern the world? Ever since the
publication of the Peace Rescript, the question every
one has been asking is: What manner of man is its
author? lie is the x in the equation. What does a;
amount to? Upon the answer to that question every-
thing depends. It was to solve that problem I came
to Russia, and now, after a week's sojourn, I think I
have found the answer. I have heard a great deal
from those who are in the best position to know — his
Ministers, the people of his household, the ambassadors
of foreign Powers, and his own personal friends. I
have also been freely entertained l)y all manner of
stories, told by — I do not say liis enemies, for he has
few, but by those who dissent from his policy, and
occupy themselves with more or less belittling his per-
sonality. And, lastly, I have had the privilege of
meeting the Emperor himself, and of basing my judg-
ment upon my own personal impression of the man
at close quarters.

It is necessarily upon these personal impressions
that my judgment is chiefly based.

When I set out on my quest I was told that the
Emperor was weak physically and mentally. lie was
said to be the mere tool of " the wily ]\[uravieff," or
the obedient puppet now of the Empress Dowager,
and then of the present Empress. lie was a good-
h^ca'ted young man, no doubt, but possessing neither
the physical nor intellectual qualities to make a great
Sovereign. Even those who spoke kindly of him said
that, although he was well meaning, he had no decision

366

TUE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

of character, and that he constantly allowed his own
convictions and inclinations to be overshadowed by
the antliority of the Ministers whom he inherited from
his father. And, finally, I was always told not to
think too much of the Rescript, for the Emperor was
not strong enough to bear up against the forces
brought to bear against him. It was with all this in
my mind that I had my first audience at Livadia. A
Princess at the Court, as I was leaving, asked me,
" Well, and what is your opinion? " To wdiom I re-
plied simply, " I thank God for him! If he be spared
to Russia, that young man will go far."

That was my opinion then. It is my opinion still.
But it is deepened and confirmed by subsequent com-
munications. " What w^ent ye out into the wilderness
to see ? A prophet ? Yea, I say unto you, and more
than a prophet," was the old question and answer.
And so, if I am asked, " What went ye out into the
wilderness to see? A reed shaken by the wind? " I
reply, " An Emperor, yea, I say unto you, and more
than an Emperor." For wh'.le no unworthy successor
of the most illustrious line of uionarchs Avho have ruled
in Europe this century, he aspires after greater con-
quests, he indulges a nobler ambition. A group of
peasants, the other day, were talking about his Peace
Rescript, the drift of wdiich they divined rather than
imderstood.

Said one of them with deep feeling: "His grand-
father made us peasants free. The grandson is trying
to liberate all mankind from war." And that peasant

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

367

spoke the true word. After licaring liim speak of
evils and miseries entailed by the war system of the
world, the familiar words of the Seventh Beatitude
recurred to my mind almost as a benediction from on
high : " Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be
called the children of God! "

Nicholas II. in stature does not resemble his father,
who was a son of Anak. It is a mistake, how^ever, to
speak of him as if he were exceptionally slight. lie
is about the same height as General Gordon, whom he
resembles in other things besides the number of his
inches. When he rides or sits, the Emperor seems
as tall as m.ost men. When he stands, he is a little
taller than Lord Nelson or Napoleon Buonaparte.
Good stuff, says the old adage, is often put up in little
bundles, and the giant in popular legend is usually
as dull as he is huge. In physique the Emperor is
wiry and vigorous. One who sees him every diiy told
me that physically Nicholas is a much healthier man
than his father. Alexander III., although great in
stature and with immense muscular development, was,
from the insurance company's point of view, by no
means so " good a life " as that of his successor. The
Tsar is full of vitality, quick and active in his move-
ments, fond of outdoor exercise. Certainly no one
meeting him for the first time would put him down
among the weakly.

The first and most conspicuous characteristic of
Alexander III. was the solidity — it would be \\Tong
to call it the stolidity — of his mental temperament.

^i^,

■i

i 1 'I

f I

368

THE LMTED STATE,^ Of EUROPE

( l!

He was by no means dull. But he was slow. lie
l^ut his foot down like an elephant, and when he put
it down he was not quick to take it up again. The
characteristic of his son anc^ successor is quite different.
The note of his intellect aal temperament is that of
extreme alertness. As he is also extremely sympa-
the+' . thiS makes him one of the most charming per-
I'VMs '■o talk to I have ever met. The two qualities
woiL' dh)i) united in General Gordon, wliose nimbleness
of mind vva - so excessive that it was somewhat difficult
to keep up with him. If, in talking to the late Tsar,
you wer<j at a loss for a word or an illustration, he
patiently waited until you found it. His son, on the
other hand, would divine your meaning, and help you
out. He is as quick as a needle, and quite as bright.
Speaking of one of Her ]\[ajesty's auibassadors the
other day, I tried to explain his excessive slowness in
the uptake l^y saying that the only way to get an idea
into his head was to take a hammer and drive it in
like a ten-penny nail. This is the very antithesis of
Nicholas II. I have seldom met any one so quick to
seize a point. AYhatever he may fail in, it will not
be in lack of capacity to see and understand.

This exceptional rapidity of perception is united
with a remarkable memory and a very wide grasp of
an immense range of facts. I know at least some
eminent Englisli politicians holding high office who,
in this respect. Tire a mournful contrast to the Em-
peror. Wlien questioned even about the affairs of
their own department, their fingers seem to be all

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

369

thumbs. They have not got their dates right, or they
are vague and misty about the exact drift of important
negotiations. There arc plenty of such woolly-mir'^-^d
men in high places, and it is a real pleasure to m, et
any one avIio has his facts at his finger ends, who tells
you in a flash what was done or what was not done,
and whose ideas, be they right or wrong, are lucidly
expressed in a very definite form. Alertness, exact-
ness, lucidity and definiteness arc four excellent quali-
ties in a man, and the Emperor has them all. With
all this, there is an absolute i .se'ice of anything even
distantly approaching the pr^'ggl^. ness of such a supe-
rior person as the new Viceroy of India. Many years
ago Mr. Gladstone described the present Emperor as
a charming type of the h t of our public-school boys.
Tie was frank, fearless, perfectly natural, and sim-
plicity itself. Nicholas II. is no longer a boy. He
has borne for several trying years the burden of one
of the greatest Empires in the world. But he is still
as absolutely simple and unaffected as he Avas when
j\[r. Gladstone met him in Copenhagen fifteen years
ago. There is still in him all the delightful schoolboy
abandon of manner, a keen sense of humor and a
hearty outspoken frankness in expressing his opinions
which makes you feel that you are dealing with a man
whose character is as transparent as crystal. Add to
all this a modesty as admirable as it is rare, and it must
be admitted that even if the net human product should
fall short of being a great ruler, he has at least all
the qualities which make men beloved by their fellows.
24

t^tm m ■■ <■■ •■>-•■=

870

THE UXTTED STATES OF EUROPE

The bright, clear blue eye; the qnick, sympathetic
change of feature; the merry laugh, succeeded in a
moment by an expression of noble gravity and of high
resolve; the rapidity and grace of his movements, even
his curious little expressive shrug of the shoulders, are
all glimpses of a character not often found unspoiled
by power.

Those who know him best appear to love him most,
and, naturally enough, c^cli one thinks his only fault
is that he is too ready to sacrifice his own convenience
and his uwn wishes to oblige the others. A more duti-
ful son never sat on a throne. It was, perhaps, carry-
ing filial affection a long way when, in order to sus-
tain his mother at her mother's grave, the Tsar crossed
and re-^rossed Russia from end to end, and that at a
time when all Europe was ringing with the crime that
cost the Empress of Austria her life. But, consider-
ing the conspicuous example of the opposite extreme
in the case of the other young Kaiser, the Tsar's tender
aifection for his mother, even if carried to excess, is
at least a fault on virtue's side. He is singularly
happy in his marriage, and the Emperor of Russia will
never lack one of the most intelligent and loyal of
counsellors while his wife lives. As his parents before
him set Europe an example of domestic unity and
felicity, so Nicholas IT. maintains the honorable and
happy tradition. He is loyal in his friendships, and
slow to part with any of those who are in his own
or were in his father's service. " Thy own friend
and thy father's friend forsake not," is a maxim so

: (,»

777 /•; IJMI'IJh'OR OF PEACE

371

inncli fomotton nowadays that it is diiticult to com-
i^lain even if in a few instances tliis tenacions loyalty
to old servants is carried fnrtlier tlian is altogether to
be desired in the interests of the state.

All thi>, it may be said, may be true. Xicholas II.
may be an ideal son, a perfect husband, a fiuthful
friend; he may be fascinating and simple, and his
mind may be as alert and sympathetic as you please;
but these qualities might all exist in a man who was
at the same time a very poor ruler. That, of course,
is quite true. ])Ut when Me are discussing his (quali-
fications as a ruler it is well to start on a solid founda-
tion from his character as a man. Xow let us turn
to consider whether or not he has the qualities of a
great Tsar.

What are these qualities? First of all, the quality
needed to rule any men justly, whether they be one
hundred and twenty or one hundred and twenty mil-
lions, is the possession of an eye to see the essential
truth whether in men or things. To speak truly is
important, but to see truly is indispensable. lias he
insight to pierce to the soul of things? Will he take
the trouble to learn the facts, or can he be befooled
and deceived by cunningly devised seemings and sub-
terfuges? Secondly, after +he capacity to see comes
the courage ^o dare to do — a quality which depends
partly on tenq)erament, but still more, perhaps, upon
the extent to which the man is dominated by the idea
of duty. Thirdly, if he has the eye to see and the
heart to dare, the next question is whether he has the

373

THE i: SITED (STATES OF EVHOPE

^1*

Btrongth of resolution and tenacity of purpose to per-
sist patiently, unwearied by delays, undaunted by dif-
ficulties, until, even if alone against the world, he
carries out his purpose.

Tried by these three testb, I do not think Nicholas
II. will be found wanting. He has inherited from
his father the hatred for falsehood, and he has added
thereto the industry of a singularly active mind almost
painfully overwhelmed by the immensity of his re-
sponsibilities. Xo one, not even a newspaper editor,
is onmiscient; but no one, not even the most consci-
entious of able editors, could work harder in mastering
his facts. lie has, moreover, the divining faculty of
intense sympathy — a gift which opens the way to the
heart of many subjects at the door of which mere study
would knock in vain. Whether he has the supreme
gift of genius in the discerning of the essential truth
of a situation we can only judge by what he has already
done. So far his reign has been distinguished by
three things. First, his frank recognition of the fact
that until he found his feet and had acquired some ex-
perience in the business of governing it became him to
serve his apprenticeship modestly and silently. He
may have been helped to practise this commendable
self -suppression by the conspicuous absence of that
virtue in another young man on a throne. But what-
ever helped or hindered, Nicholas II. set to work to
learn his business, and studied diligently at the feet
of the ablest statesman Russia has produced of late
years. Prince Lobanoff's Eastern policy Avas as de-

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

873

testable as Lord Beaconsfield's, but no one denied that
he was the supreme intellect in the Ilussian service.
The Tsar recognized his ability and profited by his
teaching.

The second salient feature in his reign was marked
by a significant blend of the two conflicting tendencies
— the intuitive instinct which enabled him to divine
the right thing to be done, and the modest reluctance
to impose his will upon the more experienced adminis-
trators who thwarted and crippled his policy. I refer
to the generous initiative taken by the Tsar in the di-
rection of an amelioration of the harshness of the Pol-
ish regime as he inherited it from his father. In that
he showed true insight and a keen sympathy with sub-
jects who WTre suffering from undoubted grievances.
But the forces of reaction and the jealousy of a domi-
nant bureaucracy, aided perhaps by the somewhat
unreasonable expectations of some of the Poles,
checked the full realization of his designs. To some
this may seem an admission that he was lacking in
strength. It would be more just to recognize that he
felt he was lacking in experience rather than author-
ity, lie was young to the responsibilities of govern-
ment. It was better to bide his time. Safely and
slow — they stumble who run fast. To have begun his
reign by a struggle which would have strained the
strength of his father might have been magnificent,
but it Avould not have been statesmansliip. It is not
till we come to the third act of his reign that we have
the first distinct revelation of the kind -f Emperor

374

THE I'SITKD STATES OF EUROPE

with whom the world has now got to reckon, and from
this htarting-point W'e shaL do well to form our
estimate.

There is one thing abont the Rescript which no one
can deny. It was splendidly andacions as well as
magnificently ambitions. Wise it may be or foolish,
but mean, petty, or unworthy it was not. The re-
sponse which it has elicited, and will yet more elicit,
througliout the civilized world is sufficient to show
with what master hand the young Tsar had struck a
note which vibrated in every heart. Here at last we
have a nunarch wlio has an eje to see the cancer which
is eating into the heart of the modern ^tate, and has
the courage boldly to proclaim in the hearing of the
world tlie inevitable consequences of allowing the
deadly malady to run its course.

AVill he have the nerve to stick to it'^ The resolu-
tion to put it through? The strength to overpower
the immense forces which will be banded together to
defeat his generous and most sensible design? That
is the crux of the whole question. I do not deny that
probably the majority of bystanders openly proclaim
their belief, perhaps tlicir hope, that he may fail.
Hut, for my ]iart, I lioj^e better things of the young
man ^^■llo may inherit somewhat of the iron will as
well as the name of his great-grandfather. It is, of
course, impossible to ])redlct ^vith any certainty what
any human being may do under a test so severe as that
to which Xicholas II. is now being exposed. But in
forming our estimate of the chances, let us look

<>*

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

375

frankly at the position, against wliicli it is easy to see
the forces that are arrayed. The immense strength
of the most formidable vested interest entrenched in
every country, the clotted mass of international jeal-
ousies and rival ambitions — in short, the devil and all
his agents everywhere are in the field against him,
most active, perhaps, where they are least visible, sap-
ping and mining for his destruction behind the mask
of fair-seeming professions of sympathetic support.
But, on the other hand, there are no inconsiderable
forces to be counted on. First and foremost, there is
the inherent force and strength which lies in the
autocracy itself. The solemn vows of consecration
at the Coronation are no mere idle form to a mind
so highly attuned to the sentiment of duty as that of
the present Tsar. Toothing but the continual goadhig
of the duty which every Tsar owes to the unnumbered
millions who look up to him as their terrestrial Provi-
dence could sustain him in liis dailv task, and the
same upward thrust will tend to stiffen his resolve and
strengthen his will to put this thhig tlu'ough.

Secondly, let it never be forgotten that Nicholas
was not only born in the purple, but that he has as his
sires and grand sires as imperious a series of monarchs
as ever swayed a sceptre. Heredity counts for much,
and it is not likely that the successor of Alexander I.,
who sacrificed his capital to deliver Europe from Na-
poleon — of Nicholas, who for the lifetime of a genera-
tion was practically the Chief Justice of tlie Continent
— of Alexander IT., who emancipated the serfs and

376

TIJE UXITED HTATEH OF EVFOPE

liberated Bulgaria — and of Alexander Til., the Peace
Keeper of Europe, has got ^o little iron in his blood
as to flinch, even though all men forsake him and flee.
Having put his hand to the plough, he will drive his
furrow straight. Xor will he look ba(-k, any more
than did his grandfather in the heroic fight that he
made and won for the liberation of the serfs.

Thirdlv, those who know him best and have worked
with him assure me that the impression — due to his
modest self-suppression during the years of his noviti-
ate — that he is not a man of strong character is an
entire mistake. One of his jMinisters said to me, '' It
is true his body is small, but er hat cincn grosseii
Muth.'^ "Whether we translate Midh as courage, reso-
lution, will, or " go,'' it is not a phrase that would be
applied to a weak sovereign. Another Minister said
he had seen him in very difficult circumstances put his
foot down with such resolution and so insist upon his
will being done, that he had some misgivings lest,
when he found himself more familiar with affairs,
Ixussia might find in him, as in the first Nicholas,
rather too much will than too little. Lastly, an inti-
mate personal friend, who had known him before his
accession, remarked to me, '' People often say that his
heart is stronger than his head, and that his will is
weakest of all. But I, who have seen hiin closely in
many varied circumstances, assure you that of the
three I have much more confidence in the strength of
his will than I have either in his head or liis heart."

I have dwelt at this length upon the personal equa-

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

377

tion becnnse it is the most important of all the factors
ill this probleiii, I think I have said enough to justify
mv belief that Xicholas II. is no unworthv eliainpion
of that war against war, his proclamation of which has
brought such a flood of new life to the hopes of man-
kind. But there are two tliini>s to l)e taken into ac-
count — two things and one other — of which here I
need not speak — in estimating the chances of success.
One is that the Emperor is by ik^ means without power-
ful lieutenants in his Champaign of Peace. A trium-
virate of ^Ministers — as remarkable a group of men as
are to be found to-dav in anv European country — are
heart and soul with the Tsar. One is (Jeneral Kouro-
patkin, that brilliant and successful soldier whose
great ambition as ]\Iinister of War is to render effect-
ive assistance to his sovereign in arresting the growth
of armaments. The second is "Af. Witte, who has re-
formed the currency, rehal)ilitated the finances, and
established so drastic a system of liquor legislation that
practically all sale of drink to be consumed on the
premises has been abolished throughout the most of
the Empire. The third, and perhaps the most imp(.r-
tant of the three, is Count Lamsdorff, the working
head of the Foreign Office, of which Count Muravieff
is the genial and ornamental chief.

Count Lamsdorff, the pu])il and successor of ]\r. de
Giers, is the living incarnation of all the archives and
the tradition? of the Foreign Office. The hard-work-
ing f^ave of the Dcjiartiiioit \ hich he directs, he is
said iieitlier to sleep nor to rest, but to toil night and

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day with inexhaustible energy at liis desk until he has
beconie a veritable monster of diplomatic lore, the past
master in all that pertains to the action of Rnssia be-
yond her frontiers. None of these three ^statesmen
are amateurs, visionaries, entlmsiasts, or voungsters.
They have all grown more or less gray in the practical
and arduous task of administering the affairs of a great
empire. AVith such counsellors, Nicholas II. need
not be afraid to speak up to the enemies in the gates,
and even to those foes which ev^ery man finds in his
own household.

I'he second factor to be remembered is the immense
power that may be called into being in support of the
Tsar's initiative if the masses of the Continent, at
present distrustful and apathetic, should take heart
from demonstrations of British and American enthu-
siasm, and unite in demanding that something should
be done. It is only occasionally that the democracy
can act with effect, but this is one of those times. But
what should be -^ ,:."^ should be done quickly.

Nicholas li. ...ii never be a Peter the Great. He
is not a Titan, nor has he the energy of a demon. He
works hard, laboriously going through all the innu-
merable State papers submitted to liim from each of
the departments; conscientiously endeavoring to ar-
rive at a right judgment upon each question on which
he is expected to say Yea or Nay; but there is about
him nothing of tlie Berserker fire and fury which
Idazed in Peter. The Emperor i^- a man full of gener-
ous impulses, to which it is his pleasure to give free

TUB EMPEROR OF PEACE

379

plpv; but he is a modest man, and when he flndb '\\h
desires thwarted hy counsellors who had grown g .'iv
before he was out of the nursery, he hesitates at s\. ^ep-
inc; them to one side. The very keenness of his i- lol
lectual synii:>athy tends to make him less dashing, less
authoritatiye than he would be were his perceptions
more blunted. lie understands so well his own linii
tations; he realizes so painfidly day by day how impos-
sible it is for any single human brain adequately to ap-
preciate all the elements in the factors on wliich it is his
hard destiny constantly to pronounce an authoritative
opinion, that there is in him none of the down-thump,
cut-and-thrust, bludgeon-like method of bbint(n--
niinded mortals. Hence what we may expect is that
he will constantly endeayor to aim at the highest ideals
both of Peace, of Liberty, and of Progress; but y.dien,
in the pursuit of those ideals, he comes up again^f too
solid obstacles of ai)athy and vis hiertloe and ingrained
prejudices ixi the case of his advisers anu ubje^ lS, he
M'ill not risk eyerything in order to g:t'n son-rching.
He will push in the right direction, thr.uffh he will
smash no crockery in order to attain his ciids. Such,
at least, is the impression I f'ormed from what I.-3 known
of his reign and of the self-revelation wliiclf he af-
forded me in the course of our conyersation. Tlis is
a fine nature, whose failures M-ill be chiefly due to its
yirtues, rather than to its faults.

This disposition may qualify the Emperor better for
the duties which he has undertaken as leader in th(}
cause of Peace than had he been as masterful, say, aa

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his near neighbor, the German Emperor. There are
questions in which it was necessary not to lead but to
drive; but this question of peace and war is emphatic-
ally not one for handling with a high hand. The
very delicacy and modesty, the reserve and the shrink-
ing from violent expressions of self-will, which more
or less impede the progress of necessary reforms in the
internal administration, may be the best qualifications
for success in an attempt to induce the nations to agree
to some method of settling disputes other than that by
war. Ilis impatient desire to get something done, and
his utter indifference to what it is, so long as it is some-
thing practical and something that can be carried into
effect at once, are very characteristic of the man. He
is no pedant, he has no cut-and-dried scheme for in-
augurating a ": nllennium. What he sees clearly is
the drift to the abyss. What he longs for most is that
something should be done, and that at once, in order
to arres't that drift. Further than that he does not go.
He has strong humanitarian prejudices against the use
of explosive bullets and all the later manifestations of
scivjntiiic deviltry in the art of war. His grandfather
before him succeeded in inducing Europe to put a veto
upon explosive rifle bullets, and he would be very glad
to carry the same principle a step further and abolish
the use of the Dum Dum and other such bullets,
wliicli seem to him needless aggravations of the lior-
I'ors of war; but he has no preconceived prescription
drown up to im.pose upon the Conference. He would
probably say, if he were asked, that because he took

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THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

381

the initiative in asking the Powers to meet together
to discuss "what could be done, that is no reason why he
should be expected to provide them with a panacea for
the evils which they all admit and deplore, but indi-
vidually are powerless to remove. lie has no exclu-
sive right of initiative in the Conference which he has
summoned.

Statesmen who have grown old in the practical ad-
ministration of the affairs of their states might well
be expected to put forward more practical proposals
than emanate from a young Sovereign of his inexperi-
ence. But should the Xestors of Europe fail to make
any suggestions, he will not shrink from submitting
suggestions of his ow^n — not because he thinks that
they are perfect, but because he is quite certain some-
thing should be done, and if no one else will act he
wall do the best he can. The Dual and Triple Alli-
ance, both equally professing to be formed for the pur-
pose of maintaining peace, might coalesce for the pur-
pose of preventing any appeal to arms for some definite
period, wdiich by its very limitation would be much
more practical than a general disclaimer for all time
of all the signatory Powers to remain at peace for a
term of years. There would naturally come the pro-
posal that during this period the Powers should define
in advance the amount of expcKditure which they con-
template on the maintenance of their armaments; and,
thirdly, the suggestion will probably be made that,
following the precedent of the Treaty of Paris, the
Powers will bind themselves before appealing to the

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sword to invite the services of a friendly neutral in
whose hands might be left the conduct of the final
stages of all controversies likely to lead to war. " Al-
ways n<ediate before you fight, and only fight (if you
must fight at all) after you have mediated," will prob-
ably bo the formula which will emanate from the Con-
ference. This is pregnant with infinite possibilities
of good to Europe.

Of the Emperor's <lisposition, all those who know
him best speak in the highest possible terms. Iler
]\rajesty, who has known him from his boyhood, enter-
tains for him an intense feeling of personal affection,
such as one might have for a favorite grandchild. ITis
public appearances in this country have been so very
few that it is difficult to form any estimate upon what
we have seen or heard of him. lie is very quick in
the uptake, discerning with rapid intuition the drift
of what is being said to him. lie is methodical in his
ways, and prefers to have the pros and cons of any
question submitted to him drawn up in clear and brief
terms. lie is a devoted husband, and has the faculty
of winning and retaining friendships. " Of all my
cousins," said the Duke of York recently, " I think he
is my favorite; and you know," said the Duke with a
smile, " I have a great many cousins." Ilis personal
charm arises, no doubt, largely from the fact that he
is so natural and so frank, so simple, and }'et so full
of humor and human sympathy. It would no doubt
be easier for him to bear the burden which the Des-
tinies have placed upon his shoulders were he a little

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

383

harder, and if lie felt a little less keenly the miseries
with which, with all his power, he is impotent to deal.
It is, however, a great thing that a man in his high
position should be bowed down rather by the conscious-
ness of his own imperfections than puffed up by the
pride of his power, and it is difficult to imagiTie any-
thing better for the world than that one in whose hands
there is placed over one hundred and twenty-nine mil-
lions of people should be so conscious of the need of
improving their condition as to feel impatient wrath
at the suggestion that he should waste his resources
in seizing territory which would add still more to the
weight which, like Atlas, he has to support. When
I came back from Russia I had a conversation with
one of the most influential of Iler Majesty's ]\rinisters.
I said to him: '' Before I begin to tell you anything
about what he says, could you conceive an ideal Em-
peror whose point of view would be such as to make
you as enthusiastic about an Anglo-Russian entente as
I am myself? " He thought a minute, and then said,
" AVell, it is at least thinkable." " Then would you
try," I said, " to define what your ideal Emperor would
gay as to his policy and his point of view in order that
you might be so enthusiastic? " " Certainly," he said,
and thereupon he went over the various questions upon
which he would like his ideal Emperor to express such
and such opinions. I think there M-ere eight points
altogether. When he had finished I said, " Well, T
can only say this. One of these points was never men-
tioned in our conversation, but upon the other seven

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the Emperor said exactly what you said yon would
wish an ideal Emperor to say." It would be difficult
indeed to conceive of any man occupying the Russian
throne who could be more absolutely fitted to become
the leader of a great humanitarian movement such as
this, or one who was more well disposed towards that
understanding with England without which no good
can result from the Peace Conference. We can only
hope that, when even Mr. Chamberlain has reverted
to his first love, the rulers of both countries may be
able to arrive at an arrangement which will practically
banish war from the world, for there is nothing of
which the Emperor is more firmly convinced than that
if Russia and England but hold together the peace of
the world is secured.

AVhen I was in Rome it was my good fortune to meet
one of the most remarkable Russian women of our
time. Among many other things she told me, I was
most impressed by the remark she made on the subject
of the ideal married life of the late Emperor. She
said, " I recently revisited Russia after an absence of
several years. What struck me most was the wonder-
fnl change that had taken ])lace in the tone of Russian
society on the subject of marriage. I could not liave
believed that the effect even of so supreme an example
of an ideal home could have been so great. I remem-
ber saying as I left Russia that great as was the service
to humanity which was rendered by Alexander II.
when ho emancipated the serfs, it was not greater than
that rendered to the moral evolution of Russia by the

.sn. . 'w

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

385

example of that stainless life. I felt the change every-
where. aSo husband and wife were ever more united
in tenderest affection than the parents of the present
Emperor, and I felt in every home the subtle influence
of their example." To have been born in such a home
was a far richer inheritance than the throne of an
Empire. ^N^icholas II. in this respect is the worthy
son of a worthy sire. The reverence for womanhood,
the profound respect and devotion for his mother
which distinguish him, are l)y no means the smallest
of the qualities wdiich fit him for his exalted position.

Ten years ago, when I was at St. Petersburg, I had
the privilege of seeing a good deal of ^Fr. Heath, the
Englisli tutor of the present Emperor. Thero was no
man in Russia of whom Sir Robert ^lorier — i-.o mean
judge of character — had a higher opinion. He was
an English gentleman in the best sense of the word,
simple, unaffected, frank, straightforward and manly.
I remember his telling me an anecdote of his pupil
which made a very pleasant impression on my mind
at the time.

They were reading together " The Lady of the
Lake," and they came to that spirited stanza which
describes the scene in Stirling, when the castle gates
were flimg open and King James rode down the steep
descent, while the crowd rent the heavens with their
acclaims —

"Long live the Commons' King, King James! "

"The Commons' King! " exclaimed tlie boy with

sparkling eyes — " that is what I should like to be! "
35

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" But every Russian Tsar is the Commons' King,"
exclaimed a patriotic Russian to whom I told the story.
It may be so, no doubt, in theory, but a good deal de-
pends upon the application. And !N^icholas II. is
penetrated through and through with the passionate
spirit of sympathy with the poor which is so distinctive
a note of our time. The thought of the miseries of the
famine-stricken peasantry who in some one or other
of the provinces of his vast dominions are always suf-
fering, is not one of the least of the burdens of his
position. To appear to be so powerful and yet to feel
at every turn so powerless to alleviate the wretched-
ness of these dim millions is one of the penalties of
his position. M. Bloch, the Warsaw banker and econo-
mist, who has spent years in investigating the social
condition of the Russian peasantry, told me that noth-
ing could exceed the keen, sustained, sympathetic at-
tention with which the Emperor listened to his lengthy
exposition of the immensity of the work which needs
to be done before the mass of his subjects could be
brought up to the standard of the more prosperous
peoples. In some great provinces there is not even
one midwife to 100,000 of the population. Doctors
are still scarcer. Schools are few and far between.
The whole machinery of civilization has yet to be
created for millions. The task of the social regenera-
tion of the myriads who regard him as a terrestrial
Providence is so immense that nothing but a sustain-
ing sense of duty could enable him lO bear up even
for a single day.

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

387

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It says much for the Tsardom that after centuries
of experience the simple faith of the peas? nts in the
superhuman, almost divine character of their rulers
is still so strong. A poor woman, who was badly
crushed in the awful catastrophe that cast so terrible
a gloom over the Coronation, lay in the hospital when
the Emperor paid a visit to the ward. " Why were
you in the crowd? " asked her attendant. " You did
not go to get a cup? " alluding to the Coronation cup
that was distributed to all comers as a memento of the
occasion. " Oh, no," she replied, " I went to see the
Emperor." " Then why don't you look at him now? "
they said. " lie is here standing by your side."
" Don't tell me lies," the poor creature replied angrily.
" As if I did not know that Emperors are not made
like that I " Alas, Emperors are but niude of mortal
clay, notwithstanding the supernal splendor with
which they are invested in the eyes of their subjects,
and heavy indeed 's the burden of the oversiglit of a
hundred and twenty-nine millions of their fellow-men.
Small marvel is it that the Emperor should feel, as he
one day declared with solemn emphasis, that the bur-
den was so heavy he would not care to inflict it even
upon his worst enemy.

There is no doubt that it is this quick, keen sense of
sympathy with human suffering which helps to impel
the Emperor to press so earnestly for the adoption of
measures to stay the ruinous and ever-increasing drain
of military and naval expenditure. He served as presi-
dent of the Commission appointed in the last years of

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his father's reign to figiit the famine. Who can mar-
vel that his heart constantly recoils from the necessity
of having to expend millions and ever more millions
on ironclads and munitions of war for the destruction
of life when he knows all too well the squalid mass of
human wretchedness which is lying at his door?

Strange though it may appear to those who have
always been accustomed to regard Russia and the Tsar-
dom as synonyms for brutal indifference to human suf-
fering, the Russian people and the Imperial family
have ever been distinguished for the intensity with
which they recoil from the spectacle of pain. The
only efforts that have been made in this century to
alleviate the torture of the battlefield were both due
to the initiative of a Russian Tsar. It was the Em-
peror's grandfather who summoned the Conference
that established the Red Cross for the service of the
wounded, and it was the same man whose initiative
secured the interdict pronounced by international law
on the use of explosive bullets in warfare. The pres-
ent Emperor is of the same way of thinking, and noth-
ing would please him better if, in addition to its other
tasks, the forthcoming Conference could still further
limit the malevolent ingenuity of man in the art of
human slaughter.

AVhat English people do not at present realize is that
the Slav races are far more brotherly than the Western
nations. " Fraternity," said a Pole to me, " is the
next great word which the human race lias to realize.
And although I dislike the Russians and detest the

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

3«9

way in ■which they oppress my country, still I admit
that after the Poles there is no race so brotherly as the
Russians." I was reminded of this as I was driving
down from Livadia with General Poushkin, the Com-
mander of the Russian Army of the South. A com-
pany of soldiers were drawn up outside the park gates,
and in response to the General's greeting a long hearty
response burst from a hundred lips. " Our diseipliue,"
said the General, " is by no means so severe, and the
sense of brotherhood is nmcli greater among all ranks
than in other armies. For instance," he added, " you
heard me greet my troops." It was the usual greet-
ing, " Good morning, brothers! " It is the absence of
that homely heartiness that makes it so difficult for
Germans and English to get on with Russian work-
men. The Russian does not understand the putting
on of " side." British arrogance and aloofness seem
to him something inhuman. " What is the chief cause
why the English are so often unpopular? " I once
asked a Russian friend. " I think," he said, " it is
chiefly due to the feeling that you all seem to believe
that (jod made Englishmen and left the making of
all other men to some one else."

It was no doubt this Slavonic spirit of brotherhood
that caused the Emperor to leave India with feelings
of anything but admiration for our rule. The Indian
Empire of course he admired. But what jarred upon
him most painfidly was the abyss which yawned be-
tween the English in India and the millions whom
they rule. It may seem strange to some, but it is per-

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fectly true tliat the Russians in this respect arc far
more democratic than ourselves. That Anglo-Indians
should habitually think and act as if they were not
made of the same flesh and blood as the native races
seems abhorrent to the Tsar, and to all his subjc^cts.
There is no such antagonism of race between the
Russian and the Asiatics whom he rules. It may be
because the Russian is more Asiatic than the Anglo-
Saxon. But that is only another way of saying that
in Asia he is a more brotherlv man to the Asiatics than
is the Englishman.

For the native races the Tsar has a deep personal
feeling of sympathy which would entitle him to be
made an honorary member of the Aborigines Pro-
tection Society. lie is imder no illusions as to the
ocamy side of colonial expansion. To the natives it
seems to him to bring opium, alcohol, foul diseases,
and all manner of demoralization. Anything further
. cuioved from the mood of humanitarian Imperialists
of our day than the bent of the Tsar's mind it would
be difficult to conceiA'c. lie is much more of the cast
^f mind of Mr. Morlev than of that of ^Ir. Cliambcr-
lain on this subject. So far from contemplating with
complacency the partition of China, he regards it
with positive abhorrence. The occupation of Kiao-
Chau by the Germans, and what was universally be-
lieved in Russia to be our fixed desigii to seize Port
-iirthur, led to the premature occupation of the ice-
free port and its protecting fortress; but no mistake
could be greater than to imagine that such a move was

TIIIJ EMPKlWIi OF Pi: ACE

391

regarded by the Emperor as anything but a very re-
grettable necessity. Certainly if Englaaid were to
adopt a policy of " hands off " for China, no one in all
Europe would be more entirely in sympathy with such
a policy than Nicholas II.

When the present Emperor was a young man on
his travels he met Lord Roberts, who chaffingly asked
him when the Kussians were coming to take India.
" Never," he replied energetically. " I could not con-
ceive a greater disaster for Russia than that we should
ever make the attempt." " Oh, you don't expect me
to believe that ! " persisted Lord Roberts. " Some day
we shall have to fight you here." '" Xo," replied Nich-
olas; " such a thing is altogether outside our ideas. It
would be madness. Look at the immense distances,
the enormous difficulties of transport, the loftiest
mountains in the world to cross — it is impossible."
" All the same," said Lord Roberts, " you will come
some day. There is not a village in India where there
is not to be heard the traditional prophecy that some
day a white people from the North will conquer
India." " Then why in the world," retorted the
young man, " should you not claim that you are the
white people of the prophecy? You are white, you
come from the North ; why should you do yourself the
harm of always assuming that the prophecy is still un-
fulfilled and that it relates to us? " A very shrewd
observation, which from so young a man was somewhat
noteworthy.

The Emperor is by no means deficient in shrewd-

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ness. He was talking one day about the clifHculty of
avoiding friction between the interests, real or imag-
inary, of the Iliissians and the English. " If only,"
he exclaimed, " the English could realize how much
of these dangers they bring uj)on themselves! They
go everywhere and find out all manner of places which
we Russians never heard of, where thev imagine that
if we were so minded we could do them an inj\u'y.
Forthwith they publish in all their papers a cry of
alarm that we are scheming to do them that injury,
and they clamor that steps should at once be taken
to forestall us by seizing it. They keep it up until
their agitation attracts the attention of those in Russia
who think that England is our enemy, and that it is
a patriotic duty to thwart her designs. They then
get up an agitation in order to make us do what they
would never have thought of doing if the English
alarmists had not made them believe it would be a good
thing to do if we were enemies." Clearly the restless
spirit of preternatural suspicion sometimes begets its
own Nemesis.

There is a vein of quiet humor about the Emperor
— which is one of the best gifts the gods give to men.
When he was crowned he had not served long enough
in the army to attain a higher rank than that of
colonel. All his predecessors, however, had always
made themselves generals when they ascended the
throne. Nicholas II., however, refused. He had
only a right to a colonel's rank — a colonel he was and
a colonel he would remain. The Grand Duke Yla-

:^wm\n ^mnmmmmm'*

THE EMPEROR OF PEACE

803

diniir protested against the deeision with some vehe-
mence, and was not a little nonplussed when the Em-
peror silenced him hy remarking: " Believe nse, dear
uncle, I am quite eapahle of looking after my own
promotion without your needing to take so much
trouhle al)out it." Of this character at least are some
of the stories which are told ahout him in Kussia —
stories which, whether true or false, entirely harmon-
ize with the estimate that those who know him have
formed of his character.

The Emperor has the highest opinion of our Queen
as the greatest of living '' statesmen." To Prince
Lobanoff he was deeply attached, and the sudden death
of the prince was a great blow to the young Sovereign,
who felt ho had lost a Minister, a mentor, and a friend.
Prince Lobanoff was, however, never able to indoc-
trinate him with sentiments of hostility to England —
a country for which he cherishes the kindliest feelings
of admiration and affection, dashed only by a melan-
choly regret that his aspirations after closer and friend-
lier relations should be thwarted by the utterly inex-
plicable campaign of calumny and misrepresentation
which is kept up by so many of our papers. There
was no bitterness, however, in any of his references
to the Russophobist propaganda — only a somewhat
pathetic regret that such things should be allowed to
poison the relations of two nations whose duty and
interest alike should make them friends.

Nicholas II. speaks English perfectly, and keeps
himself au courant with all that goes on here. I was

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repeatedly surprised at the minuteness and np-to-date-
ness of his information. When I mentioned ^Ir.
Courtney's speech on the Peace Rescript, I found he
had read it already, and once when I was telling him
something- 1 had said, he interrupted me. " Oh, yes!
I remember reading that in the Review of Reviews " —
a periodical which I was glad to hear from M. Pobe-
donostseff, himself a regular reader, was always to be
found in the Emperor's study.

Of the Peace Rescript, and of something of the vast
possibilities that lie behind it, I have spoken elsewhere.
But it would be wrong to close this somewhat discur-
sive and imperfect sketch of the Emperor without say-
ing how earnestly, nay, how impatiently he longs to
see the Conference at work. I had ventured to sav

to him that even if nothing else came of it, we were
all grateful to him for reinforcing the hope of a very
weary world. " Hope — hope ! " he exclaimed. " I
am tired of hearing about hope. I want to see some-
thing practical done! "

And the vehemence of this little outburst will tend
still further to reinforce the hope which his Rescript
has kindled in the hear* of the human race.

PART V

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
CHAPTER I

AMERICA AND RUSSIA

When Sir Robert Morier, one of the ablest of Brit-
ish Ambassadors, was transferred from the Court of
!^^adrid to the capital of Russia, he remarked on his
arrival, " I have come from a country which lives in
the past to a country which lives in the future." Since
then many years have gone by. Spain has almost used
up its past in a vain effort to contend with the forces
of the present, while Russia is exhausting the resources
of the present in order to be able to cope with the
immense possibilities of the future. Russia is the
greatest aggregate of white men ever compacted into
a state unit since the world began. The English-
speaking family alone exceeds in numbers the Rus-
sian, and they know no one political allegiance such as
that which binds all the Russians to the throne of
Nicholas II.

One hundred and twenty-nine millions of men con-
stitute a world in themselves, large enough to absorb

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their energies and monopolize their attention. The
indifference of the Kussians to what passes beyond
their frontiers is phenomenal. Fifteen years ago one
of the aides-de-camp of the then Emperor falling into
conversation with an American asked him to wliat
country he belonged, and was told America. '' Amer-
ica; America," said the aide-de-camp, " where is Amer-
ica? " This is of course exceptional in his class, bnt
probably a hundred millions of the subjects of the
Tsar would ask that question in all good faith. Like
the Chicago bar-tender who ^v•as all for taking the
Philippines, but was bothered by not kno\\i ug exactly
which of the street cable cars would carrv him to his
destination, many of those Russians who have heard of
America and who hope to go there some day have no
idea that they must go by sea. Of American politics
and new departures they necessarily have no notion.
An American traveller, recentlv returned from Si-
beria, gravely assured me that all the war news he
could find in the Orenburg papers were brief reprints
of telegrams describing the war which was raging
between Spain and England ! The Russian peasantry
are not apt to make fine distinctions, llankind for
them, it has been often said, consists only of two great
divisions — the Russians, or speaking men, and the non-
Russians, or those who cannot speak. Small wonder
is it, then, that a remote provincial editor was as un-
able to distinguish between Americans and English
as are the Parisian gamins, who, when the tall and
handsome Americaji naval attache spins down the

AMERICA AND RUSSIA

397

Champs Elysees on his high-geared wheel, pursue him
with cries of " Voild le grand Anglais ! "

The small but highly cultivated minority whicli
forms Russian society, the larger group which forms
the administration, and the officers of the army and
of the navy are, of course, keenly alive to the evolution
of events in America. There is M. Pobedonostseff,
who is universally regarded as a kind of lay pope and
persecutor-general throughout Russia. No milder-
mannered man ever closed a conventicle or doomed a
schismatic to exile. He is keenly alive to the Amer-
ican evolution or, as he thinks it, degradation. To
him Boss Croker is a kind of sombre portent of the
doom that awaits parliamentarism or representative
government. In his " Reflections of a Russian States-
man," whicli has just made its appearance in English,
he expresses profound alarm at the probable (!) tri-
umph of the Roman Catholic religion in the United
States. M. Witte, the Minister of Finance, weighed
down with the difficulties of providing for the military
and naval horseleech, casts a longing eye at the modest
war budget of the United States. If peace were but
secured and armaments reduced, he would have more
money to spend on the industrial development of Rus-
sia and Siberia, and ho would be the better able to
attract the money of the capitalists, British and Amer-
ican, which is so urgently needed to open up her virgin
resources. Prince Khilkoff (pronounced Hilkoff),
]\[inister of Ways and Communications, is known as
the " American." He served his time in an American

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railway shop, he wears his beard in the traditional
American fashion, his letters are written on a type-
writer, and he is simply burning with a desire to repeat
in Siberia the great industrial development that the
Americans achieved in the last fifty years west of the
Mississippi. At the Foreign Office, Count Muravieff,
bluff, cynical, Bismarckian in his ambitions, though
not in his capacity, has kept a careful eye upon the
development of American ambitions, while scrupu-
lously preserving the most rigid neutrality during the
war, with a bias in sentiment towards the United
States. Great and growing Powers have not much
sympathy with states that are moribund, and Spain
had few sympathizers among the Ministers of the
Tsar. The Spanish Avar interested them but little. It
was waged as it were in a distant planet. Astrono-
mers might watch it, but it was not the business of
the average man,

Americans are coming well to the front in Russia,
as they are discovering more and more what an im-
mense and undeveloped field the lands of the Tsar offer
to Western enterprise. Russia is but at the beginning
of a new epoch of industrial development. Before the
next century closes she hopes to have achieved a prog-
ress as great as that which the United States has ac-
complished in the closing century. 'No one adequately
realizes the immense agricultural resources of the vast
prairie through which the Tsar and Prince Khilkoff
are running an iron highway eight thousand miles
long. Americans are supplying at the Asiatic end

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899

the J wells: American engineers are everywhere. One
American is superintending the construction of new
steel works near St. Petersburg. Bates' dredges are
to deepen the Volga, the Dniester, the Don, and I
know not how many Russian rivers besides. The
representative of Messrs. Worthington is laying down
two hundred miles of eight-inch piping in the Trans-
Caspian region, through which the Itothschild Oil
Combination will pump petroleum by means of four
pumping stations, all of which will be supplied with
the latest American pumps. The other day I met an
American geologist and engineer, who, having quitted
the post of city engineer in a great American city,
had been spending the summer examining the gold
mines of Northern Siberia; and before the day was
over I stumbled on another who had been reporting
on copper mines in the Khirgiz steppes. The testi-
mony of these Americans was favorable to the labor
value of the Siberian w^orkman. The Russian is do-
cile, quick to learn, and does quite as good work as
any but a skilled laborer in the States. As a crafts-
man he is a past master with his only tool — the axe;
and my American friends seemed to think that he
would be equally deft with other tools, if he had the
training of the skilled artisan. On the other hand,
another American declared quite as positively that the
Russians employed in his works work as mechanically
as the machines they tend. They never make a sug-
gestion or propose an improvement. Their minds are
sluggish, and they are the most conservative of men.

Ill

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There is manifest in certain quarters a suspicion
that after a time the cordiality of Russian and Amer-
ican friendship may undergo some little change. The
American element in the country is as a little yeast
leavening the Russian mass with American ideas.
Already Russian workmen here and there have been
heard to observe that they had no use for a Tsar —
a phrase which seems almost pure American. Ko
greater contrast could be conceived than that between
the feverish, newspaper-lit, electric-driven Democracy
of the United States and the slow, patriarchal Despot-
ism of Russia. The mere influx of Americans, bring-
ing in their train their American mail, is in itself
breaking down the Chinese wall of archaic censorship.
Consul-General Ilolloway, of whom I was delighted
to receive the best accounts, subscribes regularly to
nine American newspapers. As the mails do not come
in every day it is easy to imagine the perplexity of the
unfortunate Russian censor, who has to examine every
column of every page of every paper that passes
through the post. So the censors capitulated, and
taking refuge gladly in the rule which allows certain
official personages to receive their papers uncensored,
they decreed that the Consul-General should receive
his mail intact. The incident is illustrative of much.
A thousand Americans scattered up and down Russia
and Siberia would let in a flood of light into many
dark places, and help to roll the Tsar's chariot along
a little more rapidly than it moves at present.

Another point upon wdiich Russians, or rather some

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401

Russians, see impending danger is the certainty with
which the American Ambassador at St. Petersburg
never loses an opportunity of emphasizing that the
United States will stand no interference with the Open
Door policy in China. In Mr. Hitchcock — now pro-
moted to be Secretary of the Interior — the United
States had been fortunate enough to find a thorough
business man who had spent years of his life in the
Chinese trade. He knows the value of China to
American commerce, and he had no intention of allow-
ing any obstacle to be placed in the way of its develop-
ment. Russia may come to Port Arthur and Talien-
wan, and M'clcome, but let her beware of attempting
to close the door that was opened by the Treaty of
Tientsin. If she were to try to close it, all the Powers,
America included, would know the reason why. Mr.
Hitchcock does not for a moment credit the notion
that Russia intends to close it. But he is not less confi-
dent that, even if she did, she would never be allowed
to do any such thing. This in no v^ay disturbs the
(government, which is loyal to its treaty obligation,
but it alarms some of the Chauvinists, to whom the
thought of a possible Anglo-American combination is
as the blackness of outer darkness.

The action taken by the Tsar in summoning a Con-
ference of all the nations to consider whether anything
can be done to secure an arrest of armaments affords
an opportunity for the friends of peace in the United
States to do a stroke of good business both for the
cause and for their country. The Tsar has been plenti-

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fully plied with cold douches of scepticism, ridicule,
and scorn. The diplomatists and the sovereigns and
the ministers of the Old World have no faith in the
humanitarian enthusiasm of the young Emperor.
Even among his own Ministers there are many who
have little sympathy with his chivalrous crusade of
peace. But Nicholas II. means business, and he is
going through with this business as best he can, with
such support as he can command. If there be any
real enthusiasm or humanity anywhere in the New
World it ought to be easily evoked, and strongly ex-
pressed in support of his valorous declaration of war
against the ruinous armaments of the modern world.
Of one thing all Americans may be sure. The more
enthusiastically they make manifest and effective tin ir
response to the appeal of the young Emperor the better
it will be for the future relations of the two countries.
The United States, after the Russian Empire, is the
greatest human aggregate that will be represented at
the Conference. If the American delegate is well
chosen, and he is backed by the hearty and visible
man'f estation of popular support, the New World may
even sooner than was anticipated wield a dominating
influence in the decisions of the Areopagus of Europe.
Before setting out on my tour of observation and
interrogation I had the advantage of discussing the
subject with the present Secretary of State in Presi-
dent McKinley's Cabinet, and since then I have en-
joyed exceptional opportunities of ascertaining the
views of American statesmen and diplomatists on the

AMERICA AND RUSSIA

403

and

subject of the proposed Conference on disarmament.
The Hotel Continental last winter in Paris was virtu-
ally a semi-detached annex of the Capitol at Washing-
ton. It was the headquarters of the Peace Commis-
sioners, who were specially appointed by the President
to repre ent the Government of the United States in
the one supreme question of foreign policy before the
citizens of the Republic. Together with the personnel
of the Exhibition Commission, which was also located
in the Continental, the American element was so
strongly represented that anyone sojourning at the
hotel might easily have imagined himself in Chicago
or Xew York. Besides the Peace Commissioners,
who included in their number Mr. Judge Day, late
Secretary of State at Washington, and Mr. Whitelaw
Eeid, former Ambassador at Paris, and late special
representative of the United States at the Queen's
Jubilee, there were at Paris during my sojourn in that
city General Draper, the American Ambassador to
Italy, and Mr. Straus, the American Minister to Tur-
key. As I have also seen the American Ambassadors
in Germany and in Russia, the American Ministers in
Vienna and Constantinople, I probably had better op-
portunities than if I had gone to Washington of ascer-
taining the opinion of the best American authorities
upon the attitude of the United States in relation to
the Tsar's proposals.

President McKinley received the Tsar's invitation
while he was preoccupied in completing the arrange-
ments tor the dispatch of the Peace Commissioners.

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The task of making a definite treaty of peace with
Spain naturally took precedence in his Cabinet of the
wider question raised by the Russian Rescript. His
reply was, however, immediate and emphatic. He
welcomed the Imperial proposals, expressed hearty
sympathy with their object, and announced his inten-
tion to appoint a delegate when the time came for the
Conference to assemble. Having thus dispatched that
business, the President returned to the more pressing
question of instructing his Commissioners as to the
terms on which peace should be made with Spain.

In the press of the United States, with few excep-
tions, there was a general chorus of acclamation. As
one of the ablest members of the staff of the Peace
Commission expr'^ssed it, " The Message passed over
the w^iole country like a great wave of healing balm."
Here and there among the more aggressive advocates
of expansion there were semi-audible murmurs of re-
sentment at the Tsar's suggestion, as if the autocrat
of the Old World were guilty of an impertinence in
suggesting to the N^ew World that excessive expendi-
ture on armies and navies was an evil to be shunned
rather than a boon to be welcom^ed; but these remon-
strances only tended to bring into clearer relief the
national complacency with which Americans received
the Rescript. " The Tsar," they said, " has at last
recognized the soundness of the principles upon which
Americans have been acting all these years. He may
preach disarmament now, and he does well. But w^e
liave practised it all our lives. The greatest disarma-

AMERICA AND RUSSIA

405

ment ever seen in the world's history took place at the
close of the Civil War, when a million veterans laid
down their arms and resumed their peaceful avoca-
tions. The doctrine of the Rescript is sound Ameri-
canism. AVho would not rejoice to find American
principles, in making the tour of the world, have even
converted the Imperial Master of the largest army ever
organized by man ? "

The American Peace Commissioners, like the nation
which they represent, were by no means disposed to
take a cynical or pessimist view of the famous Re-
script. One of these, who was consulted by President
McKinley on the day the Rescript arrived at Washing-
ton, told me that he had advised the President to back
it up enthusiastically. " That is what I intend to do,"
he said was Mr. McKinley's answe^'. As President
McKinley reminded Count Cassini whon that eminent
diplomatist presented his credentials at Washington,
" Cordial esteem and unbroken friendship have ever
subsisted between Russia and the United States." It
is, indeed, a consoling thought that one great sec-
tion of the English-speaking family has ever kept it-
self free from the delirium of Russophobia which has
so often played such havoc with the wits of the older
branch.

As for the practical good that may come out of it,
the .A.mericans are much more sanguine than the
French or the Germans. As Senator Davis, one of
the Peace Commissioners now at Paris, remarked, " I
should not be at all surprised if very material good

400

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came out of it. It might not result in the reduction
of standing armies, but it would be a step towards that
goal, and it might have side results which wov^ ' of
the greatest value."

But when from discussing the Tsar's proposals as
they relate to other nations, Americans pass to discuss
them as affecting themselves, there is an almost unani-
mous opinion that they don't apply. " They don't
concern us," they say. " We are disarmed already.
We should need to multiply our standing army
straightaway tenfold before we could even begin to
come within the range of a disarmament proposition."

This is reasonable enough from one point of view.
The standing army of the United States, as Mr. Secre-
tary Hay pointed out, is not a standing army in the
European sense at all. It is a mere frontier police,
and miserably inadequate even at that. Twenty-four
thousand armed men as the military quota of a nation
of eighty million — to talk about disarmament under
such circumstances is absurd. The United States, if
the Conference had been summoned before the recent
war, might fairly have entered the International Par-
liament as the only Power without an army in the
"world.

But the Conference proposal did not precede the
war. It followed it, and may possibly have been sug-
gested by it. On this point there are at least three
different opinions. One is that the extraordinary and
startling ease with which the Americans destroyed the
power of Spain suggested tc the Tsar the possibility

AMERICA AND RUiiiilA

407

that other nations might be tempted to think lightly
of the terrible eontingeney of war, and so led him to
take the field on behalf of peace. A second is that the
Tsar feared the impetus which the war might give to
the armaments of the United States, which would of
course immediately lead to an increase of other armies
and navies. The third — a notion more American
than European — is that as the Americans have shown
wars can be waged and won without huge standing
armies, the Tsar thought Europe might at any rate
reduce the burden of its armaments, and rely more
upon American methods in the future. We need not
attach much importance to any or to all of these sur-
mises, but merely content ourselves with noting that
as a matter of fact the proposal for a conference finds
the United States at the beginning of a vast increase
of its army and its navy.

It is only right to say that this, which seems to
European observers as absolutely inevitable as the re-
sult of the American annexations, or virtual annexa-
tions, is by no means accepted as a settled thing by
some of the soberest and most experienced of Amer-
ican statesmen. I confess that I have been amazed
by the resolute scepticism expressed in many quarters
as to the certainty of an immense increase in the
American w^ar budget. " Do not be so confident," I
have been told again and again, " that we are going
to build a gigantic navy, and still less that we are going
to raise a great standing army. The sober second
thoughts of the American nation will decide that

408

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question, and the last word has hy no means been
spoken."

How it will be possible to restore order in Cuba, to
say nothing of the Philippines, without a standing
army four or five times as large as that which existed
before the war, is not apparent, but that does not con-
cern these optimists. Even if, as one American officer
assured me, they have to maintain an army of 75,000
men in Cuba for five years, before they can restore
order and make the insurgents refrain from looting
and brigandage, at the end of five years the army
can be disbanded, as the Grand Army of the Republic
waa disbanded at the close of the Civil War. The
idea of a large standing army is repugnant to the best
men in the United States. And here it may be noted
as by no means one of the least of the many advantages
resulting from the Imperial Rescript, the powerful
influence which it is undoubtedly exerting in the crys-
tallization of American opinion upon the burning
question of expansion over sea. As Mr. Cleveland
reminded his fellow-citizens last June, " N^ever before
in our history have we been beset with temptations so
dangerous as those which now whisper in our ears al-
luring words of conquests and expansion, and point out
to us fields bright with the glory of war." It is a
grave question, he added, " whether the cheapening of
our estimate of the value of peace, by dwelling upon
war and warlike preparation, is calculated to improve
the quality of our national character." But the ex-
President is a " back number " and a Democrat, and

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400

his warning words were discounted. It is altogether
another matter when tlie War Lord of the Old World,
America's friend and ally, takes up the parable and
repeats in the ears of every citizen of the Great Repub-
lic the solemn warning as to the ultimate result of that
policy of arnuinients on the verge of which the United
States appears to be hesitating.

L^'fore the war the estimates for the army of the
United States for 1898 figure in the returns as £12,-
000,000. But nearly £3,000,000 of this was spent in
improving harbors and rivers, an expenditure entered
under the Military Department, but which is obviously
no part of a war budget. By Acts of Congress, it
was strictly laid down that there shall be no more than
25,000 enlisted men at any one time in the American
Republic. This was the figure fixed in 1875, and
although the population has nearly doubled since then,
the quota remained fixed as in 1875 down to the out-
break of the present war. It is obvious that with
25,000 men it will be impossible to hold Porto Rico,
police Cuba, and conquer the Philippines. The
Americans must immediately, even although it may
be temporarily, increase their army. This, however,
will in no way jeopardize the one practical proposal
that seems likely to emanate from the Conference —
the calling of a halt to increased armaments, or the
stereotyping of the statns quo for a term of five years.
For the military siatus quo in the United States at
present is not the status quo ante helium, but the
status quo of to-day. President McKinley might

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410

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

safely agree not to increase the American army beyond
the figure at which it was standing at the moment the
Tsars proposal reached him. It is, indeed, safe to
say that his is the only Government in the world which
will actually disband a considerable proportion of its
armed forces before the end of the century.

The question of the navy is more serious. As a
military Power, the United States can honestly claim
that it has set an example to the Old World. As a
naval Power it seems to be following as fast as possible
in the steps of the European nations. Its naval ex-
penditure, as estimated for 1898, before the war, was
£6,800,000. This was the largest of any nation ex-
cepting Britain, France, and Russia. It is now to be
increased, possibly enormously increased, so as to
bring it up almost to the level of the expenditure of
France. " We want a mighty navy," thunders the
New Yorh Journal, " to protect us from attack and to
enforce respect for the Monroe doctrine on the part
of the land-stealing, colonizing monarchies of Eu-
rope." Three first-class battleships have been ordered,
more are to follow. Where is it to stop?

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CHAPTEE II

COXSTANTIXOPLE

Judged by results, the Spanish war has made mighty
little return for a prodigious expenditure compared
with the returns already realized and to be realized
from the peaceful campaign which America is waging
in the Ottoman Empire. By an expenditure of hun-
dreds of millions of dollars and the sacrifice of over
2,000 men the United States has succeeded in ousting
the moribund sovereignty of Spain from a couple of
islands near her own shores and of securing the right
to shoulder " the white man's burden " in the Philip-
pines. The results achieved, small though they be,
represent probably the best and quickest dividend ever
earned by modern war.

Compare this result with those achieved by the
Americans who for the last thirty years have been
patiently, silently laboring for the regeneration of that
vast compost of w^'ecked kingdoms, principalities and
nationalities called the Ottoman Empire. Thirty
years ago a couple of Americans, Christian men, with
heads on their shoulders, settled in Turkey and set
about teaching on American metliods the rising youth
of the East in an institution called the Robert College.

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THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

They have never from that day to this had at their
command a greater income than 30,000 or 40,000 dol-
lars a year. They have taken no hand in politics.
They have abstained from identifying themselves with
any sect, nationality or party. They have stuck to
their appointed task, and they are still sticking. They
have insisted that every student within their walls
shall be thoroughly trained on the American prin-
ciples, which, since they were imported by the men
of the Mayfoiver, have well-nigh made the tour of the
world. They taught all these students five languages,
but they never hesitated to proclaim that, though tliey
spoke with all the tongues under heaven, it was but
foolishness unless the moral and spiritual character of
the student was trained and moulded by religious men.
Moral development, spiritual discipline, is the most
essential part of education. The object of college edu-
cation is the development of the faculties and the for-
mation of character. That was their line, and they
have stuck to it now for thirty-four years.

With what result? That American college is to-
day the chief hope of the future of the millions who
inhabit the Sultan's dominions. They have 200 stu-
dents in the college to-day, but they have trained and
sent out into the world thousands of briglit, brainy
young fellows, who have carried the leaven of the
American town meeting into all provinces of the Otto-
man Empire. Robert College men are turning up
everywhere. If the good work goes on the alumni of
this American institution will be able to supply the

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CONSTANTINOPLE

413

personnel of the civilized administration which must
some day supersede the barbaric horror that is at
present misnamed the Government of Tiirkey.

The one great thing done in the making of States
in the last quarter of the century was the creation of
the Bulgarian Principality. But the Bidgarian Prin-
cipality, the resurrection of the Bulgarian nationality,
although materially achieved by the sword of the
liberating and avenging hordes of Russia, was due
primarily to the Robert College. It was the Amer-
icans who sowed the seed. It was the men of Robert
College who took into Bulgaria the glad news of a
good time coming when Bulgaria would be free.
When the Turks, scared by the propaganda of liberty,
descended in savage wrath upon the helpless people,
with sword and flame and worse than bestial lusts, to
eradicate the new-born national aspirations, it w^as the
Americans who brought the whole horrible truth to
the light of day. Mr. Disraeli, then Premier of Eng-
land, lied about it in his place in Parliament, not even
scrupling to falsify dispatches and betray the confi-
dence of Parliament in order to shield the Turk. All
was in vain: Robert College men were on the spot.
Their chief was in constant communication with the
Ambassadors and journalists of Constantinople. They
found in Mr. Pears, an English barrister of high stand-
ing, a correspondent of the Daily Neivs, a man fearless
and capable enough to stand the brunt of making the
awful exposure. "What followed is a matter of history.
The revelation of the truth about the Bulgarian mas-

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THE UNITED STATES OF EL HOPE

sacres shattered as by dynamite the traditional policy
of England. Mr. Oladstone sprang into the field.
The Russian people, moved to its depth by the stories
of the sniferings of their brethren, could not be re-
strained. The Tsar-liberator carried the Russian army
in triumph to the very gates of Stamboul. Xor did
they return till by the Treaty of San Stefano they had
created that Bulgarian Principality which had been
dreamed out on the astral plane by the students of the
American college.

"When the Russian army of liberation returned
home after the peace was signed, they passed down
the Bosphorus, and as each huge transport, crowded
w4th the war-worn veterans of the Balkan battlefields,
steamed past the picturesque Crag of Roumeli Ilissar,
on which the Robert College sits enthroned, they one
and all did homage to the institution which had nuide
Bulgaria possible, by cheering lustily and causing the
military bands to play American airs. It was the
tribute of the artificer in blood and iron to the archi-
tects on whose designs they had builded the Bulgarian
State.

But the influence of the American college did not
stop there. When the Constitutional Assembly met
at Tirnova to frame the constitution for the new-born
state, it was the Robert College graduate who suc-
ceeded in giving the new constitution its extreme
democratic character, and when, after the Russians
left, the Bulgarians began to do their own governing,
it was again the American-trained men who displayed

A jiroi

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M. OEVESIIOFF

A ])r()miiicnt ini'inltiT of tlio Iiultriiiian Sobraiiie

I'lUNCK I'KUDINAXD

of IJul'Tuiiu

id not
|ly met
w-born

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■rninj?,
[played

M. ZAXKOFF

< Mio of the cliii'f workers for Biil.t,'ariiin Iiide-
jH-ndi'iice ill ISTS

DIt. VAMvOLOKF

President of the Uulirariiiii Sobmnie

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CONSTAXTiyOPLE

415

the spirit of independence which baffled and angered
the Russian Generals. From that time to this day
the Robert College has been a nursery for Bulgarian
statesmen. One Robert College man, when I visited
Sofia, was Prime Minister of Bulgaria and another
was Bulgarian Minister at Constantinople, while a
third, one of the ablest of them, was Bulgarian Min-
ister at xVthens. So marked indeed has been the in-
fluence of this one institution, there are some who say
that of all the results of the Crimean War nothing was
of such permanent importance as the one fact that it
attracted to Constantinople a plain American citizen
from New York.

The influence of the United States in the East is
by no means confined to Robert College. There are
other institutions founded by Americans at Constanti-
nople which are working quite as well as the Robert
College; but as they educate girls instead of boys, they
will not make their political influence felt until the
sons of the students come to man's estate. But it is
not only at Constantinople Americans are at work.
They are at the present moment almost the only people
who are doing any good for humanity in Asiatic
Turkey.

The German Emperor, who has fraternized with the
Assassin and walked arm-in-arm with the Infidel, has
proclaimed his divine mission to protect the Christians
of the East, whom his friend and host has been massa-
cring by the thousand for the la^t four years. But the
only protection the poor unfortunate Christians receive

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is from English-speaking men. I grieve to say it, but
it is for the most part quite true that until the other day
England did no good to any one in Asia Minor. Of
late the English people have wakened up and are now
sending scores of thousands of pounds in charity to
that country. But the only real good which the Eng-
lish did in these regions for many years was confined
to this — the British consuls helped the American mis-
sionaries when they got into difficulty. People speak
as if the Anglo-American alliance was a peaceful
dream to be realized in the remote future. If they
lived in Asia Minor they would discover that it is a
very practical working factor in the daily life of mil-
lions of men. How many American citizens are
aware, I wonder, that from the slopes of Mount Ararat
all the way to the shores of the blue iEgean Sea Amer-
ican missionarit i have scattered broadcast over all the
distressful land the seed of American principles? The
Russians know it, and regard the fact with anything
but complacency. When (General Moselloff, the di-
rector of the foreign faiths within the Russian Empire,
visited Etchmiadzin, in the confines of Turkish Ar-
menia, the Armenian patriarch spread before him a
map of Asia Minor which was marked all over with
American colleges, American churches, American
schools and American missions. Tliey are busy every-
where, teaching, preaching, begetting new life in these
Asiatic races. They stick to their Bible and their
spelling-book, but every year an increasing number
of Armenians and other Orientals issue from the

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417

American schools familiar with the principles of the
Declaration of Independence and the fundamental
doctrines of the American Constitution. And so the
leaven is spreading throughout the whole land.

Of course, such new wine caimot be poured into
the very old bottles of the Turkish provinces without
making itself felt. The Armenians, a thrifty and
studious race, soon became " swell-headed." What
Bulgarians had done they thought Armenians could
do. As the Robert College men had created an in-
dependent Bulgaria, they, in turn, would show that
they could create an independent Armenia. So they
set to work; but, alas! though they did their part of
the work bravely enough, Russia, this time, was in no
mood to come to their rescue. So the Sultan fell upon
them in his wrath and delivered them over to the
Bashi-Bazouk and the Kurd. What followed is ^vrit-
ten in letters of blood and fire across the recent history
of the East.

But the end is not yet. The American missionaries,
who took no part in the abortive insurrection, were not
as a rule much molested. They are working on, teach-
ing, preaching, sowing the seed day by day, creating
the forces which will in time overturn the Turkish
government and regenerate Armenia. The Turk
knows it, and is longing for the time when he may
have it out with the giaour from beyond the sea. But
behind the American missionary stands the British
consul, and the Sultan fears to give the signal for extir-
pation. Even as it is, the American missionaries have

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not come off scot-free. Oscar Straus, the American
Minister, has to collect some 100,000 dols. due as com-
pensation for the destruction of American property
during the recent troubles. The money is yet to bo
paid. It cost the Sultan 3,000,000 dols. to entertain
his friend the Kaiser. How can he spare 100,000
to compensate the pestilent American?

When I was in Constantinople, ]\[r. Straus had not
yet presented his little bill, but he was looking forward
with considerable interest to the opportunity of having
a plain straight talk with the Padishah, and explaining
to him the ruin which would inevitably overwhelm
the Ottoman Empire if he persisted in his present evil
ways, and particularly if he failed to compensate the
American Government for the destruction of the
property of American subjects, who were laboring in
a mission of mercy and education among his people.
Since I returned home I have seen statements in news-
papers to the effect that the Sultan has refused to pay
the money, the reason no doubt being that, for the
moment, he has no spare cash in the Treasury, Ptua that
his officials are going unpaid. This brings up an in-
teresting question. At present, the Americans are
preoccupied with the task of providing for the future
of the Philippines; and being concerned with the ques-
tion whether they shall not embark upon a policy of
Imperial adventure in Eastern Asia, they turn a deaf
ear to all talk about their responsibilities at the West
of the same Continent. Nevertheless, there are few
things more probable than that it may be reserved to

COySTANTIXOPLE

419

the United States to acliieve results in the near East
far greater even than those which Achiiiral Dewey ef-
fected when he destroyed the S]ianish ileet at Manihi.
I do not suppose that the difficulty will come to a head
over the mere claim for compensation for the destruc-
tion of missionary buildings. Sooner or later the
Turk would pay. Damages which can be assessed in
dollars can be settled with dollars, and it will not bo
for a mere money claim that the Sultan will disappear
from the Bosphorus. AVhat is likely to hapi)en is far
more serious. Long ago, when I was a boy, I remem-
ber being nnich impressed with a passage in Cobden's
political writings, in which, after describing the deso-
lation that prevailed in the Garden of the East owing
to the desolating despotism of the Turks, he asked
whether it would not be enormously for the benefit of
the world in general, and of British trade in particular,
if the whole of the region now blighted by the presence
of the Turk could be handed over to an American
syndicate or company of N^ew England merchants, who
would be entrusted with the administration of the
country, with instructions to run it on business prin-
ciples. " Who can doubt," said the great free-trader,
" that if such an arrangement could be made, before
long the desert would blossom as a rose? Great cen-
tres of busy industry \vould arise in territories that
were at one time the granary and treasury of the
world." This beatific vision of Manchester-thum has
never ceased to haunt my memory. But until recent
times, I have never seen how this excellent American

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syndicate was to get Turkey into its pocket. Gradu-
ally, however, with the decay of Turkish authority,
with the expansion of American ambitions, and above
all, with the development of the American fleet. Cob-
den's dream seems to me to be in a fair way of being
realized.

When I was in Paris, Senator Frye reminded me
that he had done his utmost at Washington, two years
ago, in order to induce the American Government to
send some warships to Constantinople for the purpose
of supporting the representations of the other Powers
concerning the Armenian atrocities. lie failed, and
it is now only a matter for ingenious speculation
whether, if Senator Frye's project had been put
through, the advent of a strong American fleet in the
Mediterranean might not have rendered the Spanish
war unnecessary. Certainly, such a demonstration of
American naval strength could hardly have failed to
have impressed profoundly the imagination of Europe ;
and Spain might have thought twice, and even thrice,
before resisting the demands for the pacification of
Cuba. The Americans have never recognized the
right of the Turk to close the Sea of " armora or the
Black Sea to their fighting ships. i^'hey hold that
they have the :' 'glit of navigating all open seas, and
!liey deny that the Turks have any right whatever to
apply the principle of the mare clausum to the Sea of
Marmora. Senator Frye made a good fight in 1890
for intervention on behalf of the Armenians, and he
was supported by a large and very influential section

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CONS TANTINOPLE

421

of the American people. Indeed, it is simply true
that a part of the agitation in favor of the liberation
of Cuba was really due to the determination of some
of the Americans to agitate for American intervention
in Turkey. One of the most zealous and public-
spirited of men, whose writings in favor of the Ar-
menians and of the Cubans have been circulated in
innumerable newspapers from the Atlantic to the
Pacific, told me quite frankly that he had gone into
the Cuban business in order to fauiiliarize the Amer-
ican mind with the idea of the liberation of o})presscd
nationalities. " AVhen I found,'' he said, " that 1
could no longer obtain a hearing for my demands for
intervention in Armenia, I took up the cause of Cuba,
and wrote voluminously, wherever I could get a hear-
ing, in favor of intervention in behalf of the victim:^
of Spanish tyranny; but all the while I had in my mind
the cause of Armenia. The principles were the same ;
the need was even greater in Armenia than in Cuba,
only in Cuba we had the power and the obligation to
intervene single-handed. Therefore, I thought, if we
made a beginning w^th Cuba, we would have estab-
lished the step]>ing-stone from which we could pass
over into Turkey." My friend wrote me as soon as
the treaty of peace was signed an enthusiastic letter,
and said, " By the grace of God the horrible tyranny of
Spain has been cleared out of Cuba and Porto Rico,
and I hope from the Philippines. Now for Armenia."
The American Pepublic has been too nuich ab-
sorbed in the discussion of the responsibilities which

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she has newly acquired in the Philippines to bestow
any attention upon the fate of the Ottoman Empire.
But there is no doubt at all that the situation is much
more serious for Turkey than it was before the United
States had proved by the actual test of experience the
efficiency of their fleet as a fighting machine.

It is unnecessary to add anything to Avhat has been
said in the foregoing pages to show that the Turk has
good cause enough to regard with misgivings, to put
it mildly, the work of American missionaries in the
Ottoman Empire. I can never forget the intense
vehemence with which a friend of the Sultan, him-
self, I regret to say, an American by birth, expressed
his sentiments. I had remarked that I did not believe
the Eastern Question would ever be settled until the
Turks impaled an American missionary. The vehe-
mence with which he blurted out, " I entirely agree
with you," let in a ray of vivid light upon the senti-
ments prevailing in the Yildiz Kiosk. If this man
who, although a Philo-Turk, was nevertheless an
American, and in some ways a representative Amer-
ican, could give such heart-felt expression to a longing
desire for vengeance on the American missionary, it is
easy to imagine Avith what sentiments these excellent
citizens of th(^ Kepublic are regarded by the Padishah.
But, of course, when I spoke of the impalement of an
American being the solution of the Eastern Question,
I meant it in a sense entireh' different from that in
which he had responded. It seems to me the most
natural thing in the world that some fine day there

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CONSTANTINOPLE

4?«

agree
senti-

will be one of those savage outbreaks of religious or
imperial fanaticism which will lead some unhanged
ruffian who has been decorated by the Sultan, or some
Kurdish chief, to take it into his head to avenge the
wrongs of Islam on the nearest American mission sta-
tion. He will sweep down at the head of his troops
upon a school or manse. The building will be given
to the flames, the American missionary will be flung
into the burning building to perish in the fire, while
his wife and daughters will be carried off to the
harem of the pasha. I^othing could be more natu-
ral or more in accordance with the ordinary prac-
tice in these savage regions. There is no available
force to defend the American settlers from their assail-
ants. In these remote regions it is often possible to
conceal a crime for months by the very completeness
with which the victims have been extirpated. But, of
course, after a time, whether it be weeks or whether it
be months, the fate of that mission station would be
known. The story of the great massacre, when the
missionary was burned alive in his own flaming school-
house, would leak out, and then, in the natural course
of things, some enterprising newspaper man would
make his way to the scene of the outrage, would verify
the facts, would ascertain the whereabouts of the un-
fortunate American women, and possibly return to the
outside world bearing with him a pathetic and urgent
appeal from the captives for rescue from the Turkish
harem.
This outrage, after all, is nothing more than the kind

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of things to which the Christian races of the East have
had to submit from generation to generation. Their
victims have been as white, as Christian, and as
wretched as those whose imaginary doom at the hands
of the Turk or Kurd I have been describing. But in
the latter case the girls, with their devoted mother,
who have been subjected to the worst outrage at the
hands of their captors, would differ from the Arme-
nians in that they speak English. That one difference
would be vital. On the day on which that smart
newspaper man wrote out his story of the fate of those
American women — wrote it out in vivid characters,
bright and clear before the eyes of the whole English-
speaking race — the doom of the Ottoman Empire
would be sealed.

There are eighty millions of human beings in the
United States, all of whom speak English, and each
one of whom would feel that the imprisoned women
were even as his own sisters. On the day on which the
news of their incarceration and outrage reached the
Christian Ilepublic of the West, the whole of the
eighty millions who inhabit the invulnerable fortress
which N^ature has established between the fosses of
the Atlantic and the Pacific would start to their feet
as one man, and from the whole continent would rise
but one question and one imperative command. The
question would be: "Where is Dewey? AVhere is
Sampson? Where are our invincible ironclads, which
in two battles swept the flag of Spain from the seas?
Why are our great captains roosting round upon their

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CONSTANTINOPLE

425

battle-ships, while such horrors are inflicted upon
women from America? " And after that inquiry
would come quick and sharp the imperious mandate:
" To the Dardanelles! To the Dardanelles! "

In three weeks the commanders who shattered the
Spanish fleet at Manila, and drove the ironclads of
Admiral Cervera in blazing ruin upon the coast of
Cuba, would appear off the Dardanelles to exact in-
stant and condign punishment for the outrage inflicted
upon their country-folk.

^ov would they stop at tlie Dardanelles. The Stars
and Stripes would soon fly over the waters of the Sea
of Marmora, and the thunder of the American guns
would sound the funeral peal of the Ottoman dynasty.
No power on earth would ])e able to arrest the advance
of the American ships, nor, indeed, is there any Power
in Europe that would even attempt to do so. The
patience of Christendom has long been almost worn
out, and Europe would probably maintain an expectant
attitude while the death-blow was struck at the
crumbling relics of the Ottoman Power.

When the Sultan had fled from Stamboul, leaving
his capital to the violence of the mob, the Americans,
to save Constantinople from the fate of Alexandria,
Avould be compelled to o' ?upy the city of Constantino,
and, as our experience has long shown, it is much easier
to occupy than it is to e/acuate. AVhen once " Old
Glory " was hoisted over the citv of Stamboul, who
could say when it would be hauled down? Of course,
the Americans would protest that they had no inten-

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tion of remaining there, but the necessity of postpon-
ing the European war, which would probably break
out when the key of the Dardanelles and of the Bos-
phorus- came to be scrambled for, would compel them
to remain at least for a time, and every day that the
Stars and Stripes flew over the gates of the Euxine
would tend to familiarize Europe with the idea that,
of all possible solutions, the indefinite occupation of
Constantinople by the Americans might be open to
fewer objections than any other conceivable solution.
Thus, at any moment, owing to what may be regarded
as a normal incident in the methods of Ottoman mis-
rule, Cobden's dream might be fulfilled, and the great
Republic of the West become the agent for restoring
prosperity and peace to the desolated East.

The following special telegram from Washington in the
New York World of August 9, 1898, is an interesting confirma-
tion of the views set forth above. It is headed " We may
Bombard Constantinople," and it runs thus: " Minister
Angeil was appointed by President McKinley vvith the sole
object of having him force the Sultan to pay the claims of
the missionaries. It was the intention of the President to
even go to the extent of making a naval demonstration be-
fore Constantinople to force compliance with his demands.
Immediately after Minister Angell's arrival in Turkey the
navy of the United States was being rendezvoused in Eastern
waters for the purpose of permitting the American Minister
to enforce his demands. While this movement was in
progress the Cuban situation became acute, and the con-
templated demonstration was postponed until a more aus-
picious period. Minister Angeil frankly informed the Porte
that unless the claims were paid the United States would
endeavor to force payment. He was also told of the con-
templated demonstration and the cause of its postponement.

CONSTANTINOPLE

4S7

The Sultan t len promised to see that the claims were paid.
The matter has been in this shape for months. The bullc
of the property destroyed consisted of mission buildings, and
there has been a powerful influence at work to secure' just
compensation. It is now said that unless the claims are paid
by Turkey a naval demonstration vill be made against the
Ottoman Empire just as soon as the exigencies of the pres-
ent war will permit. Admiral Sampson, who will be in com-
mand of the European squadron, which is to be formed after
the beginning of peace negotiations, will be sent to Con-
stantinople to intimidate the Turks."

I',

CHAPTER III

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FROM THE CAPITAL OF THE OLD WORLD

i)'

The King of Italy opened the Italian Parliament
on November iTtli. Inside the Chamber, originally
built for the C^iria Innocenziana, or Papal Tribunal,
but which for twenty-eight years has been the Cham-
ber of Deputies of United Italy, the scene Avas nmcli
the same as that which is witnessed at the opening of
all Parliaments. It was nnich more picturescpie out-
side. Italy may be reducing its finances to bank-
ruptcy by playing too boldly the beggar-my-neighbor
policy of all modern states, but not even bankruptcy
can dim the glorious blue of the Italian sky. We are
here, in mid-Xovember, with the delightful climate of
an English June at its best. Such skies lend them-
selves naturally to outdoor pageants. Although the
ceremony was of the simplest, it had a brightness and
a splendor which we never can hope to rival nnder our
English clouds.

The balcony of my hotel looked out over the sanded
square within which, from as early as nine o'clock,
deputies and diplomatists began to alight from their
carriages. A donble row of mounted men guarded
the approach, the bright red roll of their overcoats

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FROM THE CAPITAL OF THE OLD WORLD 420

folded behind their saddles forniing a double ribbon
of color across the street above the heads of the small
crowd, many members of which crouched down on the
pavement to watch the arrivals through the horses'
legs. The square was lined by troops with different
uniforms. At one corner a military band played lively
music, which from time to time was drowned by the
harsh clangor of the great bell, Avhose peal from the
belfry overhead added more to the tumult than the
harmony of the occasion. After a time the state car-
riages began to arrive, the state coaches of the Senate
leading the way, followed after an interval by the
gorgeous carriages of the Court. The liveries were
splendid, the costumes of tlie Court ladies not less so,
and when the carriage of the King drove up with its six
horses and a single postillion, nothing could have been
bettor from a scenic point of view. The King looked
hale and robust, although his hair is whitening, nor
was there any lack of vigor in his step. Biit to an
English observer whose last experience of a Iloyal
ceremonial was the great Jubilee of our Queen, there
was a very painful absence of any demonstrations of
public enthusiasm. What a contrast to the league-
long roar of cheering which rolled from Buckingham
Palace to St. Paul's, and from St. Paul's through
Southwark to the Palace, in the sombre silence of the
small crowd which gazed with curiosity at the passing
pageant! Not an Evviva did I hear. Only a few
raised their hats. If I had been the King I would
willingly have exchanged even the marvellous Italian

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sky for one right good hearty English cheer. But
there are some things whicli even nionarchs cannot
conmiand.

The Speech from the Throne was portentously long,
and excojDt for one or two passages, not particularly
interesting. The reference to the Tcace Conference
was studiously curt, and it was much more than coun-
terbalanced by the emphatic declarations that the Gov-
ernment, which has a General as Prime Minister and
an Admiral at the Forei^'u Office, intends to continue
to spend more money, aiiil ever more money, upon the
fleet to keep pace with the preparations of its neighbors.
The Power nearest bankruptcy in Europe is perhaps
bound to keep up the game of bluff to the end. But
it is sufficiently evident that at the Quirinal there is
no very hearty support of the peaceful initiative of
the Tsar. The Pope, on the other hand, is most en-
thusiastic. Everything that the Holy See can do to
help the Tsar to make the Conference a success will
be done. That, perhaps, is sufficient to account for
the coldness of the Quirinal. For in this unhappy
city whatever the Blacks approve is damned by the
Whites and vice vers(L

Perhaps the most interesting sight in yesterday's
spectacle was the march of the Bersaglieri through
the streets. Those who ha^'e never seen the Bersagli-
eri tripping along — there is no other word for it but
the word that describes the pace which is a cross be-
tween a trot and a canter — have no idea of the extra-
ordinary effect which can be produced by the mere

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Till; HOUSES OF I'AKr-IAMKNT, HOME: THE KINO LEAVING AFTER DEI.TV-
ElUNG HIS S1'EE( H VI50M THE THHONE

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FROM THE CAPITAL OF THE OLD WORLD 481

movement of soldiers on march. The swing, the
abandon, the speed, the swagger, the immense " go "
and elan of the men with the cocktail plumes is the
very poetry of motion. If Sir Howard Vincent or
any other capable and enterprising Volunteer officer
would raise a regiment of Bersaglieri in I^ondon, and
train them to march as these fellows hustled along
yesterday to the wild, weird music of their bands, he
would find that he had created the most popular force
in the Empire. But even if they existed in London
they would lack the marvellous contrast which made
their dark green uniforms so effective yesterday. We
have no bands of scarlet-robod German students to
march solemnly down the soldier-guarded streets.
Neither have we white-robed friars or the brown
Capuchins to add to the kaleidoscope of color, any
more than we have the column of Marcus Aurelius or
the Obelisk of Augustus, which both looked down
solemnly upon the ephemera who chattered over the
deep buried ruins of the Amphitheatre of Statilius
Taurus. The averted looks of the silent friars, the
sidelong glances of the processional students, the
sombre figures of the passing priests recalled continu-
ally the deadly feud which rages unappeased, and ap-
parently unappeasable, between the Vatican and the
Quirinal. This feud it is Avhich casts its shadow
absurdly enough over the forthcoming Conference.

It is by this time well understood by all dional
men that there will be no question raised at the Con-
ference except that for the consideration of which it

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was summoned. But men in the death-grapple are
not reasonable, neither are the occupants of the hostile
camps which are intermixed and superimposed one
upon the other, and who agree in nothing except in
believing each other capable of anything. Hence,
however preposterous and incredible it may appear in
England, there are actually those in Rome who i ..-
aginc that the delegates of the Pope will attempt, all
conditions notwithstanding, to force a discussion of the
restoration of the Temporal Power upon the Con-
ference of Peace. Of course they will do no such
thing. Equally, of course, if they were demented
enough to attempt any Hiich folly, they would be
promptly called to order and told to hold their tongues.
But the King's party are far too mticli taken up by
suspicion, distrtist, and rancor to accept so simple and
so obviotis an answer to their forebodings. They must
needs, so it is said, be prepared to protest against sticli
a contingency. If the Pope's men were to attempt
to speak on such a question, then the King's men nmst
be instructed to put on their ha is and walk out. And
then, they say, the Conference would be at an end.
As a matter of fact, it would go on just the same as
before. The question of the Temporal Power wotild
be ruled out as peremptorily as if it were the qtiestion
of Poland, or of Ireland, or of Cuba; the Conference
would proceed with its regular business. The King's
men could, of course, stay outside if tliey chose. But
in all probability they would take off their hats and
come in again. A great international enterprise, such

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FROM THE CAPITAL OF THE OLD WORLD 438

as this which the Tsar has set on foot, is not to be
ruined merely because some of its members elect to
sulk. But the Government of King Humbert is much
too sensible to sulk. More than any other Power in
Europe it would benefit by a slackening of the deadly
pressure which drives all modern states along the road
to ruin.

As I passed along the Via de Quirinale a small
crowd was gathered opposite one of the entrances to
the King's Palace. They were waiting for some of
the Royal Family to come out. I looked up. Over
the gate was the inscription, " Clement IL, Pontif.
Max." A little further on was a large crowd on the
Piazza, from whence, in the interior of the Quirinal,
the Royal carriages could be seen standing. Over the
main entrance I read, " Paulus Y., Pontif. Max.
. . ." High overhead on the lofty belfry was
inscribed the name of another Pope. Everywhere
and at every turn the Kings from the N^orth are con-
fronted with the evidence that on everything they
hold in Rome, even the very Palace in which they
sleep, " the Pope, his mark," is cut broad and deep.
It is not thirty years since the Popes made the Quirinal
their summer residence. What wonder if the black-
coated gentry who swarm in every street feel that they
can see evervwhere their title-deeds uneffaced on the
buildings of Rome, and dream and dream and dream
of the day when the Pope-King will once more reign
in the City of the Csesars ! It is these dreams of theirs
which are the nightmare of Italy, and prr'vent her

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from throwing herself as heartily as she might into
the promotion of the Conference of Peace.

When I was at the Vatican, I had the opportunity
of discussing it with the Cardinal Secretary of State,
Cardinal Rampolla, whose observations, I take it, may
be regarded as expressing the views of the Holy See.
If so, then the hope of Leo XIII. is that his lengthened
Pontificate may not close until the nations of the world
have constituted an International Court or Peace
Board with an international mandate to mediate be-
t^veen any Powers whose disputes have become insolu-
ble by the ordinary processes of diplomacy. Nothing
short of a permanent International Court, emanating
from the conference of the Governments, speaking in
the name and with the authority of all the Powers, will
satisfy the Pope. Mediation proffered even by the
IIolv See, which had no international mandate behind
it, has been unceremoniously ignored by angry nations
even in this very year. But if the Governments in
conference assembled were jointly and severally to
bind themselves to admit the mediation of an inter-
national representative Board of Peace before they
proceeded to actual hostilities, war might often be
averted. The Board would not have authority to
arbitrate. But it would have the right to mediate.
N^or should any declaration of war take place until the
mediating international authority had full opportunity
to ascertain whether any honorable solution of the
difficulty could be suggested to the disputants. In
case they were willing to arbitrate^ the Peace Board

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CAHDIXAI. l'AI{()((nt

C'AUDINAI, KAMl'OM.A

SfCivtarv of State to the Vatican

CAliDINAI. STi:iMiri5l-:U

FOUH OF THE NOTABLE CAHDINALS
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FROM THE CAPITAL OF THE OLD WORLD 435

would supply the ready-made machinery for such a
mode of adjudicating the dispute. It would also, in
time of peace, devote its time to the codification of
international law, a task to which the Pope thinks
modern States might profitably devote some portion
of their energies.

This idea of the Pope's is substantially the same as
M. Witte's, who would call the international tribunal
by the modest title of an Institute of Mediation. But
its functions would be virtually the same, although the
idea of authority and the mandate would be less pro-
nounced.

To both these proposals strong exception is taken
by some Russian statesmen, who believe that no inter-
national body can be created, even although its author-
ity is strictly limited to that of mediation, without
limiting the absolute sovereignty of the individual
state. No doubt, they say, we could fight after the
mediation had taken place. But on vital questions
we ought not to expose ourselves to the increased diffi-
culty of having to fight against the advice of a tribunal
nominally impartial and possessing an international
mandate which might nevertheless be packed by rivals
or foes. What is wanted is to secure the advantages
of gaining time and of permitting the mediation of
neutral Powers without exposing us to the danger of
an adverse judgment from an international court
whicn , "^rybody knows would be certain to sacrifice
the interest of any disputant rather than endanger the
general peace, '

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There was, however, much more lively interest taken
in Rome in the probable result of the American con-
quest of the Philippines than in the possibilities of
the Peace Conference. The answer to the question:
AVhat does the Old World think of the New World?
has never been made with greater emphasis than in
the Eternal City. The oldest old world regards the
newest new world with feelings of anger, disgust and
alarm almost too great for words. The sentiment of
indignation differs in intensity. But it is universal.
There is no sympathy for the United States, either
among Whites or Blacks. In fact, dislike of the
American seizure of the Philippines and a conviction
that the humane enthusiasm which made the war pos-
sible was a mere mask of cant assumed in order to
facilitate conquest — these are almost the only senti-
ments shared in common by the rival camps of the
Quirinal and of the Vatican.

With the King's men the sentiment is comparatively
mild. They do not believe in the least in the dis-
interestedness of the American war of liberation. The
American declarations are almost universally derided
as hideous examples of a worse than English hypocrisy.
Uncle Sam, they say, determined in all things to sur-
i^ass John Bull and outdo him, even in Phariseeism
and cant. The friends of America wring their hands
in unaffected grief over the fall of the United States
under the temptation of the lust for territorial expan-
sion. Its enemies shoot out the lip and shriek in deri-
sion over what they regard as the unmistakable demon-

fROM THE CAPITAL OF THE OLD WORLD 437

stration which the demand for the Philippines affords
of American cupidity, American bad faith and Amer-
ican ambition.

" We told you so! " they exclaim. " That is what
the unctuous rectitude of the Anglo-Saxon always
ends in. He always begins by calling heaven to wit-
ness his unselfish desire to help his neighbors, but he
always ends by stealing their spoons."

It is unpleasant for the Anglo-Saxon to hear this on
every side, but since the peace negotiations have devel-
oped a demand for the complete cession of the Philip-
pines, Americans will do well to recognize that some
such statement as the above represents the current
opinion of almost everyone in Europe who pays cur-
sory attention to what is going on abroad. The im-
mense majority of Europeans are, of course, absolutely
ignorant of what has happened. Intent on their daily
toil, they neither know nor care what occurs in other
hemispheres. But the Europeans who read news-
papers and who form what may be described as the
public opinion of the Old World, are practically of
one mind on the matter. Outside of England I have
met no non- American who did not dislike the expan-
sion of America, nor do I think in the whole of Europe
I have met one European who did not receive my pro-
testations as to the genuine sincerity with which the
American people entered the war, with more or less
mocking incredulity.

" It is all very well," they say in effect, " to dis-
semble your love, but why did you kick me downstairs?

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It was all very well to proclaim your disinterestedness,
but why did you seize the Philippines? "

" Mere national brigandage, nakedly odious Pha-
riseeism," is a phrase which roughly represents the
judgment of the Old World on the recent develop-
ments of the New. From which may be learned once
more the oVl truth, that in a man's judgment of
his neighbor's motives we see the mirror of his own
character. For the most part they express no sur-
prise. They expected nothing better from these Eng-
lish of the New World. They are true to their an-
cestry. But there is in every country a minority of
thoughtful men who, having for all their lives been
the staunchest friends of the American common-
wealth, are now confounded and utterly put to shame
at what is universally regarded as the apostasy of the
United States, the abandonment of their national
policy and the adoption of the world policy of con-
quest.

When I listened, as I have been listening for montlis
past, to the alternate taunts and lamentations of the
foes and friends of America, the babel of voices seemed
at last to merge into one scornful chorus of welcome to
Uncle Sam !

" Hell from beneath is moved from thee to meet
thee at thy coming; it stirreth up the dead for thee,
even all the chief ones of the earth; it hath raised
up from their thrones all the kings of the nations. All
they shall speak and say unto thee, ' Art thou also be-
come as weak as we? Art thou become like unto us?

FROM THE CAPITAL OF TIIF OLD WORLD 439

How art thou fallen from lieaven, () Lucifer, son of
the morning I ' "

Americans may argue, protest, and rage as they
please, the Old World has made up its mind upon the
subject, and nothing that can be said or done in the
United States will alter its judgment. The American
Government has come out of its retirement. It ban
thrown its hat into the arena of the world. It is
launched on a career of conquest which will be all the
more predatory because it is masked by humanitarian-
ism. The commonwealth, they hold, has succumbed
to the malady which has so long plagued the Old
World. A bright hope for the hunum race was ex-
tinguished when the one non-military Power, which
eschewed all schemes of aggression and annexation,
enrolled itself among the common herd of conquering
states. So men talk everywhere in Europe. Whether
they regard the old American ideal with sympathy or
with contempt, they all agree in believing that it has
been abandoned, and that for ever.

The annexation of the Philippine Islands may seem
but a small thing, but it is decisive. When Eve ate
the apple it was but the act of a moment. But it
barred against her for ever the gates of Paradise.
What the Old World says is that the Xew World has
now eaten of the forbidden fruit, and the flaming
sword which turned every way will prevent a return
to the peaceful traditions of the fathers of the republic.

In the course of my tour I am now compelled to
admit that I found proof existent of a disposition on

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the part of the Powers to intervene on behalf of Spain,
which might have been very serious had it not been
checked in the bud by the knowledge that England
would have nothing to do with it. "When I was in
Paris I was positively told that no proposal had ever
been made to intervene, and that therefore England
had never had the occasion or opportunity to put her
foot down on the anti- American coalition. That, no
doubt was true so far as overt action on the part of
the Government was concerned. But it is no less true
that immediately after the war broke out a diplomatic
representative of the Powers communicated to an
American Minister at a European Court in plain and
unmistakable terms the displeasure of the Powers
and their desire to express that displeasure publicly
and forcibly. This communication was sufficiently
serious for the contingency of the use of the allied
forces of the European nations for the coercion of the
United States to be frankly discussed between the two
diplomatists. The result of that discussion was to put
a summary stop to all notion of European intervention.

" If you intervene," said the American Minister,
" it means war."

" Yes," rejoined his visitor, " and the forces of the
great European Powers acting in alliance would over-
whelm any opposition which iimerica could offer."

" 1^0 doubt," said the American ; " but you have to
bring your forces across the Atlantic to the other
hemisphere and keej) them there for the rest of your
natural life. For the New World is not going to

Mfii^itfHHHHaaMHHI

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THE CAl'ITOL, HOMK

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FROM THE CAPITAL OF THE OLD WOULD 441

submit to the Old World any more. No, sir, not any
more than it submitted a century since, when the odds
were far worse. And remember that when you were
bringing your armies and your navies across three
thousand miles of sea to fight America you would have
to count Avith England, who is certainly not friendly
to your enterprise."

This put an extinguisher on the proposal. Nothing
more was heard of the contemplated intervention. It
never got so far as to be submitted to England. The
whole design was checked at the very outset by the
calm audacity with which the representative of Amer-
ica played his cards, including the trump card of the
Anglo- American entente, which henceforth will play
a leading part in all the dealings of the English-speak-
ing people with their jealous and suspicious neighbors.

I am very glad to be able to set forth the actual
facts as they actually happened. They were told me
at first hand by the person most immediately con-
cerned, so that we can absolutely rely upon the
accuracy of the story.

If the Old AVorld regards the American growth and
expansion with unconcealed alarm, the British Em-
pire, which is seated both on the Old AVorld and the
New, contemplates the new departure with unaffected
sympathy.

Tlie relations between the Embassies of Britain and
America at Constantinople and at Borne could hardly
be closer and more cordial if there had been a hard-
and-fast, cut-and-dried, signed, sealed and delivered

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treaty of alliance, offensive and defensive, between
the two Powers.

If things go on as they are going now, every Eng-
lish-speaking man will feel as I have felt throughout
this war — that he has not one Ambassador, but two,
in every capital in Europe, and that wherever he goes
he is shielded by the might, not of one Empire, but of
two, a combination beneath whose shadow the whole
world may yet learn to rest in peace.

j :

CHAPTEK lY

WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BE ?

.1?

I have visited the capital of every great Power in
Europe, and also several which are o-' secondary rank.
I have been in Constantinople, Sofia, Belgrade, Buda
Pesth, Berne, and Brussels. Everywhere I have made
it my duty to ascertain the views of those responsible
for public affairs on the subject of the Peace Con-
ference, and after spending nearly three months in
constant discussion and investigation, I have come
home full of high hope, and confident that we are on
the eve of a forward step in the progress of human
society, from the savagery of lawless war to the reign
of peace.

Everything, however, depends upon ourselves.
These high hopes may be quenched in the blackness
of despair. But if England do but to herself prove
true, then, as a famous American remarked the other
day in Paris, " the iridescent dreams of our boyhood
will be realized at last."

I will briefly and succinctly sum up the reasons for
my belief. In the first place, I know now, as a matter
of absolute certainty, no longer to be disputed even by
the most cynical and sceptical, that the Peace Rescript

444

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summoning the Governments to the rarliam(mt of
Peace is no mere flash in the pan, no sudden outburst
of an enthusiastic vouth. I^either is it the mask cover-
ing any deep-laid Macehiavellian design. It is the
carefully weighed and long considered expression of
a reasoned conviction on the part of the ruler of the
greatest military Empire in the world, a conviction
which is held and expressed by the Tsar with intense,
almost passionate, earnestness, but which is shared to
the full by his most experienced and powerfid Min-
ister':'. That conviction may be briefly stated as the
belief that considerations alike of humanity and of
statesmanship imperatively demand a cessation of the
present breakneck competicion in naval and military
armaments, whi-^h, proceeding at an ever-accelerating
rate, must, if unchecked, land civilization in the abyss.
Armaments have already reached such colossal dimen-
sions that they cannot be used without involving the
disorganization of society by their mobilization, while
the increased deadliness of weapons and enormous
havoc of modern war renders it probable that 3vcn
victory would only be the prelude of the triump'i of
revolutionary Anarchism. War everv vear l}ecomes
more and more synonymous with suicide. But the
armed peace is only one degree less costly than war.
The international game of beggar-my-neighbor can
only end in bankruptcy. But no one Power can cry
off. Only by a general agreement can the ruinous
game be checked. Therefore the Peace Conference
has been summoned, and if ever a case was proved

WHAT WILL THE OITCOME BE?

beyond all gainsaying, by facts' beyond dispute and
calculations mathematically verified, it is that which
the Tsar will snbmit to the representatives of the Gov-
ernments of the world.

Every Power to which the Tsar's appeal has been
addressed has admitted the truth of the stern indict-
ment. Xot one (jiovernment in the whole world has
denied the absolute accuracy of the Imperial diagnosis
of the galloping malady which is devouring the mod-
ern State. The army and naw estimates for 1S97-8
amounted in Great Britain to £40,000,000, not in-
cluding the cost of the Indian armv, which amounts
to £14,500,000 more. If this sum were not increased
for ten years it would amount to a sum of £400,000,-

V 7 7

000, or £77,000,000 more than the whole sum added
to our national debt between the Peace of Amiens in
1802 and the Peace of Paris in 1815, when, for thir-
teen years, England was locked in death-grapple with
N^apoleon. But this sum, colossal as it is, will not suf-
fice. This year the total army and navy estimates
show an increase — not including the supplementary
nayal expenditure, which brings the total up to £43,-
000,000— of £3,000,000 in a single year. To this
must be added the extra supplementary shipbuilding
programme, which entails a further expense of £2,-
250,000 per annum for three years. And unless the
Peace Conference intervenes, this yast snowball will
grow larger still.

It is to abate this monstrous plague, which threatens
the destruction of civilization, that the Russian Gov-

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ernment has summoned the Conference. The fact
that a successful icsue of its deliberations would be an
enormous relief to the Russian Treasury, so far from
justifying the sneers of the cynic, supplies a i laterial
justification for the confidence of the optimist. When
the obvious and admitted interests of mankind har-
monize with the n *. )r" ^ necessities of the Russian
Exchequer, there k. ;o -v- :.se in cavilling about mo-
tives, it is more imp.itant -> ascertain what can be
done to give practical eifect to the aspirations of the
Tsar.

In the second place there Is no longer any doubt as
to the intelligence, the determination, and the strength
of the young Emperor of Russia. Four years of hard
labor under the tremendous pressure of his Imperial
responsibilities have ripened the Prince who was re-
garded as a charming and amiable boy at his accession
into one of the most serious and courageous of Euro-
pean Sovereigns. The atmosphere of the Court has not
destroyed the simplicity of his character, nor have the
cares of Empire impaired the delightful elan of his
youth. But Nicholas II. has thought deeply and re-
flected much. lie has gone through his apprentice-
ship, and he has learned to handle his tools. His
Ministers all know that thev have now to do with a
man keenly alive to his responsibilities, with clear and
definite views as to his policy, who is inspired and
borne up by an overmastering sense of his duty to his
people. Responsibility is a great schoolmaster. And
in Nicholas II, it has done its work right well. Behind

WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BEf

447

all the modesty and simplicity of the man there is now
visible the Tsar, the autocrat, whose first duty is to
see that he is obeyed.

In the third place, the true significance of the Tsar's
proposal as to a stay or arrest of armaments is at last
beginning to make itself perceptible even to the dullest
of Britons. Emphasized as it is by the intention to
give an earnest of his sincerity by abandoning the as
yet unexecuted portion of its own vast programme of
shipbuilding, it is equivalent to a proposal that for \
term of five or of ten years the naval supremacy A
England should be recognized as a fundamental prin-
ciple of the world's balance of power. If the stereo-
typing of the status quo be accepted by the conf'^rcnce
of the nations, the naval supremacy of England , ould
be virtually consecrated by an international pact. Our
present position as sovereign of the seas would be de-
clared unassailable by general consent — an outcome
of Russian machinations with which even the i^avv
League might rest content.

Fourthly, the Peace Conference promises not
merely to secure a stay of the increase of armaments
and the proclamation by an international Parliament
of a modern equivalent of the mediieval Truce of God
for five or ten years; it will also boldly raise the vital
question of mediation and arbitration. If there is
one thing upon which all responsible rulers are agreed,
it is that the increased violence and the extended influ-
ence of the press render it absolutely necessary in the
interests of civilization to create some additional safe-

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guard or bulwark agaiust tlio at present unrestricted
sweep of national passion. What that safeguard
should be is one of the most important matters to be
discussed at the Conference. Piut that something
should be done, no sane man can doubt.

I had the opportunity of hearing one of the ablest
and most experienced of Ivussian di])lomatists ex])ound
to me his notion of what could be attempted with every
hope of success. As, after making the round of Eu-
rope and hearing every imaginable solution discussed
from every point of A'iew, no idea seems to me on the
whole "0 practical and so simple, I Avill reproduce, not
his actual words, but the drift of his argument: —

" It was well said by M. Lessar that the Conference
would achieve the maximum if it attempted the mini-
mum, and that ccnverselv it would achieve the mini-
mum if it attempted the maximum. AVhat wc have
to seek is the minimum, the first step, and not to at-
tempt to reach the top of the ladder at one stride. At
present the ethics of international war are precisely
those which prevail among the rowdies in a mining
camp. There the right of private war exists in its
aboriginal savagery. Two men quarrel, and the only
question is which shall soonest grab his revolver and
shoot his opponent. As civilization progresses, society
does not at once forbid private war. It imposes re-
strictions, it confines the right within narrower and
ever narrower limits, until at last, in the most advanced
nations, the right itself disappears. The analogy will
help us in attempting to make the first step to imposing

WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME HE?

440

a check upon the at present unrestricted license of
international war. If we accept this guide, we shall
see that the first step is not to insist that the disputants
shall leave their quarrcj to be adjudicated upon by a
tribunal, impartial it iiiuy be, bn*^ cold, inditferent,
and li'overned by general considerations which override
tlie interest or the honor of the individual. !Xo. The
thin end of the WTdge of neutral intervention is very
different. What is done is to insist that before meet-
ing in combat, the disputants shall each be compelled
to entrust the management of the aifair to a second
whom he can implicitly trust to act upon his instruc-
tions and to defend his honor as if it were his own.
Instead of shooting at sight, the moment a mortal af-
front is given, the princii:>als are never allowed to come
into personal dispute. Everything is in the hands of
the seconds. They must decide first whether the quar-
rel is such as to justify a duel, and then they must
consider whether they ought to suggest any honorable
way of escape from a hostile meeting. If they cannot
agree upon any such compronu'se, they can take the
opinion of a third party, and press his suggestions upon
their principals. But the ultimate decision rests in the
hands of the principals. The utmost that a second can
do is to refuse to act if the principal refuses to follow
his advice. In that case he must find a more obliging
second. If, however, the seconds agree that there is
nothing to be done but to let them fight, then they
fight. But if they fight before these preliminaries are
gone through, and death ensues, then the victor is
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treated not as a duellist, but as a murderer. That is
Avliat could be done in the case of international war.
If, for instance, England and France had carried their
quarrel about Fashoda to the point of war, the recall
of their Ambassadors would have been immediately
followed by actual war. If, however, there had been
such an agreement as I am supposing might be arrived
at in the Conference, when the Ambassadors were
withdrawn, before a shot was fired, France and Eng-
land would be required to place the whole question in
the hands of their friends, who would, I suppose, in
this case have been Russia and America. They would
have been bound to inquire in the first case whether
the issue was grave enough to involve the nations in
war; and in the second case, supposing this to be so,
whether there was any way of escape from so dread a
disaster which they could suggest and which England
and France could honorably accept. If they could
not find one themselves, they might refer it to a third
Power, say the President of the Swiss Confederation,
and agree to press his opinion upon the disputants.
Xo one who knows anything of the true facts of the
Fashoda case can doubt for a moment that Russia and
America would have experienced no difficulty in de-
vising an honorable way of escape for France from the
unfortunate and untenable position in which she found
herself. But if, after all, England and France re-
jected their counsels, they could then fight with all
the clearer conscience becaiise the friendly mediation
of their seconds had failed. Such a solution would

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WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BE?

401

not avert all wars. But I think it would, by gaining
time, and by affording an opportunity for the friendly
intervention of a trusty mediator nominated ad hoc,
prevent at least half the war which would otherwise
take place. And that, surely, is good enough for a
beginning."

I should not in the least be surprised if the views of
this eminent diplomatist were embodied in the Russian
programme. "Always mediate before you fight;"
never draw the sword till your seconds have cleared
the field. These are practical proposals which, if
adopted, will be a conspicuous landmark in the evolu-
tion of human society for many generations to come.

It is possible that in England many would go fur-
ther. Some years ago I published a pamphlet entitled
" Always Arbitrate before you Fight." AVhen it is
proposed that we should always arbitrate before we
fight, we are asking for nothing extravagant or Uto-
pian. It would be not merely extravagant but pre-
posterous to propose that we should be ready to arbi-
trate on everything, binding ourselves beforehand to
accept the award of the arbitrator, whatever it might
be; but no such proposition has emanated from any
responsible body. All that is asked is that, before we
go to war with each other, we should submit the casus
belli to a repr< -cntative tribunal, whose verdict should
be obtained before a single shot is fired. This is but
a latter day resurrection, with improvements, of one
of the oldest institutions in the world. It is a melan-
choly satire upon that civilized heathenism which is

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called Modern Christianity that there is not in Chris-
tendom any institution for restraining the hot fever of
war as efficient as that which existed in pagan Rome —
in Home, which we call heathen, but which was never-
theless, in its earliest days, more dominated by the
religious spirit than any of the nations which have
risen on the ruins of the Roman Empire. Before war
was declared in ancient Rome, alike under the mon-
archy and in the republic, the cause of war was sub-
mitted ^o a solemn court which, although far short of
a Board of Arbitration, representing both parties,
nevertheless was distinctly in advance of any peace-
keeping appliance now existing in the world. A spe-
cial college, or court, or board, of high officials existed,
dating from legendary times, to whom every dispute
was submitted, and until they had given their decision,
and a stipulated time had elapsed, no war oould be
begun. Plutarch, in his Lives of " ^uma " and of
" Camillus,"* :hus describes this ancient institution by
which the old Romans endeavored to guard against
hasty and unjust war: —

Numa instituted several other sacred orders; two of which
^ shall mention, the Salii and Feciales, which afford particu-
lar proofs of his piety. The Feciales, who we^'e like the
Irenophytakes, or guardians of the peace, among the Greeks,
had, I believe, a name expressive of their office; for they
were to act and mediate between the two parties, to decide
their differences by reason, and not suffer them to go to war
until all hopes of justice were lost. The Greeks call such a
peace Irene, as puts an end to strife, not by mutual violenc'^,
but In a rational way. In like manner the Feciales, or
heralds, were often dispatched to such nations as had in-

^Irt

WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BE?

453

jured the Romans, to persuade them to entertain more
equitable sentiments; if they rejected their application,
ihey called the gods to witness, with imprecations against
themselves and their country, if their cause was not just;
and so they declared war. But if the Feciales refused their
sanction, it was not lawful for any Roman soldier, nor even
for the king himself, to begin hostilities. War was to com-
mence with their approbation, as the proper judges whether
it was just, and then the supreme magistrate was to delib-
erate concerning th'^ proper means of carrying it on. The
great misfortunes which befell the city from the Gauls are
said to have proceeded from the violation of these sacred
rites.

"What we are seeking to do to-day is little more than
to reestablish the Feciales on a wider footing', so as to
include representatives of the other side; hut the
Ivonians were not the only ancients who recognized
this principle. " So well was this practice settled in
Greece that when Sparta and Argos made a treaty of
alliance they sought to avoid the possibilities of armed
collision in the future by providing, ' In case a differ-
ence arises between the two contracting nations, the
parties shall have recourse to the arbitration of a
neutral city, according to Hie custom of their ances-
tors! ' Such language would be worthy a i)lace upon
the statute-books of the most civilized nation of our
day. So well satisfied was the moral sense of the
ancients that Avar should be avoided and peace pro-
moted that Thucvdides declares it to be a crime to
treat as an enemy one who is willing to arbitrate."

Arbitration is not put forward as a substitute for
war. We only claim that, before we appeal to the

464

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

last dread tribunal, we shall exhaust the resources of
civilization by referring the question in dispute to the
arbitrament of a Court of Peace.

It is not the fact that any nation which submits its
case to arbitration thereby binds itself to accept, with
its eyes shut and its mouth open, any award that may
issue from the Arbitral Court. If such a rule were
insisted uj)on, it would of necessity exclude from arbi-
tration all the questions upon which popular passion
rages most fiercely — that is to say, all the questions
which are most likely to lead to war; whereas nothing
is more certain than that if all questions, no matter
what, that imperil peace were to be referred to a Court
of Arbitration, with full liberty reserved by both dis-
putants to appeal from the award to the arbitrament
of war, in nine cases out of ten, probably in ninety-
nine out of one hundred, the reference to the Court
would settle the question. In the first place it wordd
give both parties time to cool down ; secondly, it would
compel both nations to examine critically the full
statement of their opponents' case and the evidence on
which it was suj^ported; thirdly, it would clear the air,
for the judicial verdict of an impartial tribunal must,
even if mistaken, ki^l out many of the misconceptions
and misstatements which inflame international contro-
versies; and fourthly, and most important of all, it
would so heavily handicap the nation that drew the
sword against the award as to enormously increase the
securities which civilization now possesses against a
resort to war.

WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME BEt

455

Professor Max jMiiller, in a letter written three
years ago, touched this question with his accustomed
sagacity and precision. He \vrites : —

It was at the time of the war between Germany and France
that i had to write a number of letters about an Interna-
tional Tribunal of Arbitration. Nothing came of it, and the
chief objection, I remember, was that there are certain ques-
tions on which no nation with any self-respect would sub-
mit to arbitration. This is the prejudice that has to be
eradicated. If the case is so very clear, arbitration can do
no harm. Besides, it was never meant that in case arbi-
tration went against a country that country could not de-
clare its readiness for war and go to war. That is another
point to be kept in view. The right of self-defence will
remain with nations as with individuals, but of course a
nation that disregards such a verdict would have terrible
moral forces arrayed against itself. Shall we live to see
the principle of arbitration recognized by the great nations
of the world? I believe every member of every Parliament
in Europe and America would approve of the principle, but
in spite of this nothing can be done. And the vast armies
go on sucking the very blood out of the people. Nothing
seems so difficult to carry as a measure against which no
argument can be produced.

Of course there are many worthy people who will
exclaim against the infamy of the mere suggestion
that an appeal should lie to arms from the award of a
Court of Arbitration. But these persons should re-
member that we cannot do everything at once, and
tlat there is no more certain method of being left
without bread than that of insisting upon having the
whole loaf. Further, the eserved right to fight —
taking the consequences and paying the price — cannot

(

450

T///J ( \itj:d states of europl

1)0 taken away, no matter what treaties are signetl or
laws are passed. The right of private war exists in
every man of ns intact to this day, if we eare to pay
the price which society exacts and which is paid nnder
the gallows. In time, the nation tliat appealed from
the award of the Arbitration Court to the sword would
fare as ill as the private citizen who sets the law courts
at defiance, but we have not reached that point yet.
Safely and slow; they stumble who run fast. What
is proposed at present is simply to interpose before an
appeal to the sword — if that appeal must come — an
appeal to the deliberate and judicial verdict of an im-
partial Court, not selected ad hoc, but existing as a
permanent part of the apparatus provided by the
nations for adjusting any differences whic'i may arise
between them.

An Am^Brican WTiter, Ifr. N. S. Shaler, writing in
the North American Eevieiv in December, 1895, sug-
gested the summoning of a Peace Conference in AVasli-
ington in 1897, for the purpose of do- i li ^ safeguards
against war. Some of his suggestion^ '\.c well worth
consideration to-day. He wrote: —

It seems not unreasonable to suggest that the Conference
might advise the institution of a Permanent International
Peace Commission, composed of delegates from the several
national authorities, which should hold annual sessions
and which could be called together whenever it became evi-
dent that there was danger of a warlike contest between
any o£ the contracting parties, this Permanent Commission
to have no actiicil powers except those of mediation preced-
ing ( r during a conflict, and of suggestions concerning limi-

,li

WHAT WILL THE OVTCOMi: BiJf

457

tations or the reduction of standing armioF, and navies. The
arrangement for the use of the influence of the Commission
might well be as follows: The several States might agree
that, in a case of impending warlike outbreak between any
two members of the association, the Commission might send
a delegate or delegates from its members whose efforts at
mediation sliould be heard before the declaration of war.
This commission might turthermo»s agree to consider the
recommendations for progressive disarmament at some
definite and proportional rate, or for the replacement of
standing armies by an organized militia, say of the Swiss
type. The considerations may extend to the point of sub-
mitting the propositions to the legislature or other bodies
which have charge of the budgets of the several States, there
being no guarantee given that the Government concerned
shall approve of the propositions as submitted by the Com-
mission. It might be well to charge the Commission with
the task of b offering the statement of the body of customs
which is termed international law; it is possible that in
course of time something like effective codification of these
usages might be brought about.

The Codification of the Law o-^ Xations is one of
the subjects the Pope is strongly of opinion should be
undertaken by the forthcoming Conference.

I cannot conclude this chapter more appropriately
than by quoting the earnest and eloquent appeal issued
in 1896 by the American, Irisli and English Cardinals
in favor of the establishment of a permanent Court
of Arbitration as a substitute for war. They say: —

We are well aware that such a project is beset with prac-
tical difficulties. We believe that they will not prove to
be insuperable if the desire to overcome them be genuine
and general. Such a Court existed for centuries when the
nations of Christendom were united in one Faith. And

r-^

i I

468

THE UNi.'ED STATED OF EUROPE

' I

have we not seen nations appeal to that same Court for its
judgment in our own day?

The establishment of a permanent tribunal, composed,
may be, of trusted representatives of each Sovereign nation,
with power to nominate judges and umpires according to the
nature of the differences that arise, and a common accept-
ance of general principles defining and limiting the juris-
diction and subject-matter of such tribunal, would create
new guarantees for peace that could not fail to Influence
the whole of Christendom. Such an International Court of
Arbitration would form a second line of defence, to be called
into requisition only after the ordinary resources of diplo-
macy had been exhausted. It \/ould at least postpone the
outbreak of hostilities until reason and common sense had
formally pronounced their last word.

This is a matter of which the constitution and procedure
must be settled by Governraents. But as Governments are
becoming more identified with the aspirations, and moulded
by the desires of the people, an appeal in the first instance
must be addressed to the people.

Yea, verily, and it is the People who will decide !

CHAPTER V

A PILGRIMAGE OF PEACE

The year having for the most part been given up
by the English-speaking peoples to making two wars
and threatening to make a third, it is surely about
time that they did something for peace. The fact
that they alone among the civilized races have this year
felt the smart and borne the burden of campaigns on
land and sea, is in itself a reason why they should now
take action for the avoidance of war in the future.

Fortunately the moment is propitious on both sides
of the Atlantic. The peace with Spain, which for
some time seemed in danger, is now at last definitely
secured, and there is no longer any peril to civilization
either from barbarism triumphant in the Soudan or
from the unfriendly acts of other Powers in the Nile
Valley. If only as a thank-offering for these crown-
ing mercies vouchsafed to our arms, we owe it to our-
selves and our neighbors to do what in us lies to render
avoidable nnd unnecessary the appeals to arms, and to
diminish so far as is practicable the cruel pressure of
the cost of armaments for war.

Hitherto for the most part the advocates of peace
have been compelled perforce to confine themselves to

400

THE UNITED (STATES OF EUROPE

i i

the enunciation of general principles, with here and
there a practical application. But this year the un-
expected and courageous initiative of the Russian
Emperor has suddenly rendered feasible the practical
realization of ideals, all hope for the attainment of
which lias been regarded as the vainest of the pious
aspirations of mankind. After many years of talk,
the t^'^ie has come for action. AVords must now give
place to deeds, and instead of mere dissertations on
the abstract virtues of peace, there can be substituted
the giving of direct practical support to the first great
international effort that has been made to reduce arma-
ments and provide some kind of international safe-
guard against the passions which hurry nations into
needless wars.

This year, on the eighteenth of May, a Conference
of all the Governments of the civilised world will meet
at The Hague to return a definite a:ls^"er to the appeal
addressed to \he reason and conscieixce of mankind
by th(^ Emperor of Russia. However we may differ
concerninii' the motives or the ultimate aims of the
author of the Peace Rescript — and those who know
him best are the most confident as to his sinceritv and
earnestness for peace — the appeal to the Conference
constitutes a solemn challenge to the moral sense of
each one of us.

The apjialling evils of the present system are ad-
mitted by all. Xot a single Government has denied
the accuracy of the terrible indictment brought against
it in the Tsar's circular. The obligation to find, if

A PILGRIMAGE OF PEACE

461

possible, a remedy is imperative. That ohligaticn
rests upon every nation. Xo one can throw the scjlr
responsibility for the solution of the prol)lem upon the
Ruler who had the courage to tackh^ the (juestion. It
is our dutv as much as his. AVliat are we doing to
help him to solve it?

It is fortunate that the problem, although absolutely
insoluble if one element be wanting, is compaiaiivcly
simple if that element be supplied. And it is not less
fortunate that this now indispensable element is one
the supplying of which lies within the ciipacity of each
one of us, and that if all of us but act together, no prac-
tical difficulty will be experienced in devising meas-
ures to arrest the growth of armaments, and to provide
an international barrier against future wars. The
Conference and the Governments will furnish all the
machinery that is necessary. But it is for the people
themselves to get up steam. The Conference will be
foredoomed to impotence, if there is no motive power
at the back of it in the sliape of an imperious and irre-
sistible demand from the nations who suffer and from
the peoples who groan under the intolerable burden
of the armed peace. To evoke that demand, to render
articulate, audible and imperative the longing of the
masses of the people — tliat is the duty of all who love
their fellow-men, between this day and the meeting
of the Conference.

The question of how it is to be done is one wdiich
each individual must decide according to the wisdom
which he possesses, and the opportunities of iniluencing

463

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

<\ I

'. I

itiii

his fellows which he can command. To use a homely
phrase, if each one keeps the kettle boiling in his own
circle there will be no lack of steam when the Con-
ference meets. But as individual efforts are apt to
lose much of their force if they lack cohesion, coopera-
tion, and unity of direction, it is proposed to make the
attempt to stimulate local effort and harmonize it on
an international scale by the immediate organization
of a great Pilgrimage of Peace through all nations, be-
ginning at San Francisco and ending at St. Peters-
burg. In proclaiming a Holy War against War and
in summoning all the Governments to a Conference
upon the perils with which modern armaments
threaten the modern State, the Emperor of Russia
has embarked upon an enterprise which, however glo-
rious it may be, is inevitably doomed to immediate
failure unless the crusade is preached among the peo-
ples, and a response, hearty and universal from below,
hails the appeal from above.

To give such a propaganda of peace a practical ob-
jective, and to provide the simplest and most effective
method of combining into one visible and organic
whole all the forces making for peace and for an abate-
ment of armaments, it is proposed to arrange for a
Pilgrimage of Peace. As the original initiative of the
Conference was taken by the Autocrat of the East, it
is obviously the right thing that the initiative of the
national response should come from the free democra-
cies of the West. The English-speaking folk, whether
they live in the United Kingdom or the United States,

A PILGRIMAGE OF PEACE

4G8

are as a unit on this question. The Americans must
of course readjust their armaments to their new re-
sponsibilities. They are doing this to-day, but, like
the elder branch of the race, thev have not the least
intention of abandoning the secular protest which the
English-speaking race has always made against the
scourge of universal compulsory military service and
the burdens of the armed peace.

It is hoped that in every centre of population in
Britain and America the people will have been gath-
ered together under their local leaders to express in
formal resolution their determination that the Peace
Conference shall be made a success, and to appoint a
local committee for the furtherance of the objects of
the Conference. From each of these local committees
so appointed one delegate might be chosen to serve on
the joint national committee of the two English-speak-
ing nations; for in this good work, for the first time,
the Empire and the Republic could act as if they were
indeed but component parts of the great Common-
wealth of the English-speaking folk. The Anglo-
American Xational Committees thus constituted, it
is proposed, should appoint a joint deputation to wait
upon the Tsar.

The object of this deputation of the English-speak-
ing folk would be, first, to convey to the Tsar before
the Conference opens the welcome assurance that he
has behind him in his beneficent enterprise the im-
mense force of the English-speaking race; and, sec-
ondly, while on their way to St. Petersburg, to make

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a Pilgrimage of Peace throughout Europe summon in
all the other nations to bestir themselves, and to unite
with them in this great manifestation of popular en-
thusiasm in the cause of peace. The Pilgrimage
would serve as the international rallying point of the
new Crusade. In every land it would proclaim in
clear and unmistakable fashion the passionate prayer
of the overburdened peoples, — Give us peace in our
time, good Lord!

The proposal has b:en received with the utmost en-
thusiasm wherever it has been mooted. Even despite
the fever of Fashoda and the absence of any attempt
to mobilize the forces of peace, there has been a very
considerable expression of public opinion. The recent
dispute with France, which at one time threatened
the success of the demonstration, will now be its most
valuable object-lesson. Nothing could more clearly
bring before the mind of the British peoples — first, the
peril that sudden gusts of passion may hurry neighbor-
ing nations into war; secondly, the urgent need for
some international buhvark against such i peril; and
thirdly, the reality of the supremacy of the British
fleet, which, if the Tsar's proposal is accepted, will re-
ceive international recognition as one of the funda-
mental elements of the status quo.

The American Representatives would be welcomed
as the most " outward and visible sign " know^n and
read of all men, that in the good work of peace the
English-speaking world is not two, but one, and that at
last, in the fulness of time, the English-speaking folk

111

A PILQRIMAQE OF PEACE

465

are able to act together as a unit in the best interests of
mankind.

The first to join the pilgrimage, after its initiation
by the English-speaking folk, would be the representa-
tives of the seven smaller free States — Switzerland,
Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and
Portugal. It might possibly be arranged that one
representative from each of these States should be
present at the Albert Hall send-off, so that the English-
speaking deputation would make its dehiii on the Con-
tinent supported by the representatives of seven small
States which contain 27,000,000 of the most intelli-
gent and most pacific of the population of Europe.

When the great International Deputation made its
debut in Paris, there is no question as to the immense
effect which its mere arrival would have upon the
public mind of Europe. That effect would be deep-
ened and strengthened by every succeeding day.
There would be receptions at the British and Amer-
ican Embassies, public conferences for both men and
women, public demonstrations in the great towns, and
then, finally, when the French members had been
added to the Deputation, they would all wait upon
the President and his Ministers, urging upon them
the supreme importance of backing up at the Con-
ference the proposals of the present ally of France.

From Paris the great International Pilgrimage

would go to Berlin, where the experiences of Paris

would be repeated. Arrangements would have to be

made for demonstrations in all the great cities in the

466

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

I I

1 1

a^i

¥f

Empire. There is little doubt that the Deputation
would receive a hearty welcome from the Kaiser, with
whose Godspeed the great Pilgrimage would roll on
to Vienna and Pesth, where, by-the-by, its reception
would be most enthusiastic, and then having been
swollen by German and Austro-Hungarian mem-
bers, it would go to Rome. When the Italian con-
tingent was added to the number, the Deputation
would go to St. Petersburg, where it would be received
by the Tsar, who would learn from the lips of the
international pilgrims how passionately the peoples
desire peace, how enthusiastically they have responded
to his initiative, and how emphatically they bid him
stand firm in the name of " God and the people " and
achieve this great good for humanity.

There is no need to elaborate details. This brief
outline is enough to indicate the magnitude of the
scale upon which the response of the nations might be
made to the initiative of the Tsar. Neither is it neces-
sary to insist too much on the particular programme
of reform which may find favor with the Tsar and his
advisers. The Conference will be an open one, and
it is as much our responsibility as his to devise practical
measures for coping with the evil that confronts us.

But it is understood that the practical proposals
which will come before the Conference will include: —

(1) A " Truce of God " for five or ten years.

(2) A halt or arrest of armaments for a similar
period.

(3) An international agreement by all the Powers

'^ II,

A PILGRIMAGE OF PEACE

467

that, in case of disputes arising during the Truce of
God, the future disputants bind themselves not to
declare war until they have invoked the mediation of
friendly Powers who should in all cases have a full
opportunity of intervening in the interests of peace
before the last appeal is made to the sword.

If this proposal be accepted we shall always gain
time, and always provide the Power that does not want
to fight with an honorable way of escape before the
sword is unsheathed. The recognition of this prin-
ciple IS the next great onward step to be taken in the
evolution of humanity.

Be this as it may, the immediate question is not,
What shall the Conference decide; but whether the
peoples will at once set about getting up steam with
sufiicient pressure to overcome the vis inertice of
diplomacy and the cynical scepticism of the Govern-
ments.

Already there is ample evidence that the Inter-
national Pilgrimage of Peace would be hailed by the
millions as a new harbinger of hope among the nations.

It would affirm the unity of the English-speaking
race and it would base that unity on the promotion of
peace.

It would array all the smaller nations in support of
the English-speaking initiative, and it would, for the
first time in the history of our race, bring the represen-
tatives of the English-speaking w^orld as a unit to ap-
peal for common action to the people of the at present
sadly dis-United States of Europe.

I 1^1.

I. .

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468

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

It vould give an immense stimulus to peace propa-
ganda everywhere. If it succeeded it would stave off
a threatened increase of naval expenditure of many
millions a year, and even if it failed it would have
profoundly affected for good the future of the rela-
tions between the Slavonic and the Anglo-American
races.

All this is admitted, for it is indeed indisputable.
The only question is whether it is to be done.

:\i\

eace propa-
ild stave off
re of many
tvould have
3f the rela-
3- American

idisputable.
ne.