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WASHINGTON: JUDD & DETWEILER, PRINTERS. 1880. i w A ^ I a THE RELATION OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD TO SOCIAL PROGRESS. A^ISr A^DDRESS DELIVERED BEFORE THE Piosopliical Society of ffasliiojton, X)ECE3yfl:BEia 4a?!!, leeo. BY SIMON NEWCOMB, It RETIRING PRi;SlDKNT OF THE SOCIETY. WASHINGTON: JUDD A DETWEILER, PRINTERS. 1880. am OCT la tiw i I i THE RELATION OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD TO SOCIAL PROGRESS. Among those subjects which are not always correctly appre- hended, even by educated men, we may place that of the true significance of scientific method, and the relations of such method to practical affairs. This is especially apt to be the case in a country like our own, where the points of contact between the scientific world on the one hand, and the industrial and political world on the other, are fewer than in other civilized countries. The form which this misapprehension usuolly takes is that of a failure to appreciate the character of scientific method, and es- pecially its analogy to the methods of practical life. In the judg- ment of the ordinary intelligent man there is a wide distinction between theoretical and practical science. The latter he considers as that science directly applicable to the building of railroads, the construction of engines, the invention of new machinery, the con- struction of maps, and other useful objects. The former he con- siders analogous to those philosophic speculations in which men have indulged in all ages without leading to any result which he considers practical. That our knowledge of nature is increased by its prosecution is a fact of which he is quite conscious, but he considers it as terminating with a mere increase of knowledge, and not as having in its method anything which a person devoted to material interests can be expected to appreciate. This view is strengthened by the spirit with which he sees scientific investigation prosecuted. It is well understood on all sides that when such investigations are pursued in a spirit really recognized as scientific, no merely utilitarian object is had in view. Indeed it is easy to see how the very fact of pursuing such an object would detract from that thoroughness of examination which is the first condition of a real advance. True science demands in '. its every research a completeness far beyond what is apparently i necessary for its practical applications. The precision with which ' the astronomer seeks to measure the heavens, and the chemist to determine the relations of the ultimate molecules of matter has no limit, except that set by the imperfections of the instruments of mwmi THE RELATION OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD research. There is no auch division recognized as that of useful and useless knowledge. The ultimate aim is nothing less than that of bringing all the phenomena of nature under laws as exact as those which govern the planetary motions. Now the pursuit of any high object in this spirit commands from men of wide views that respect which is felt towards all exertion having in view more elevated objects than the pursuit of gaiu. Accordingly it is very natural to classify scientiste, and philos- ophers with the men who in all ages have sought after learning instead uf utility. But there is another aspect of the question which will show the relations of scientific advance to the practical affairs of life in a different light. I make bold to say that the greatest want of the day, from a purely practical point of view, is the more general introduction of the scientific method and the scientific spirit into the discussion of those political and social pro- blems which we encounter on our road to a higher plane of public well being. Far from using methods too refined for practical pur- poses, what most distinguishes scientific from other thought is the introduction of the methods of practical life into the discussion of abstract general problems. A single instance will illustrate the lesson I wish to enforce. The question of the tariff is, from a practical point of view, one of the most important with which our legislators will have to deal during the next few years. The widest diversity of opinion exists as to the best policy to be pursued in collecting a revenue from imports. Opposing interests contend against each other without any common basis of fact or principle on which a conclusion can be reached. The opinions of intelligent men differ almost as widely as those of the men who are immediately interested. But all will admit that public action in this direction should be dictated by one guiding principle — that the greatest good of the community is to be sought after. That policy is the bsst which will most pro- mote this good. Nor is there any serious difference of opinioq as to the nature of the good to be had in view ; it is in a word the increase of the national wealth and prosperity. The question on which opinions fundamentally differ is that of the effects of a higher or lower rate of duty upon the interests of the public. If it were possible to foresee, with an approach to certainty, what effect a given tariff would have upon the producers and consumers of an article taxed, and, indirectly, upon each member of the community in any TO SOOIAI, I'ROORBStt. way intoreHted in the article, wu Hhoiild thtui have an exact datum which we do not now pofwess for re»(;hing a concluHion. If nonie superhuman authority, spcakiu)^ with the voice of infallibility, could give uh thia information, it w evident that a great national want would be supplied. No question in practical life is more im- portant than this: How can this desirable knowledge of the econo- mic effects of a tariff be obtained ? The answer to this ijiiestion is clear and simple. The subject must be studied in the sumo spirit, and, to a certain extent, by the same methods which have been so successful in advancing our knowledge of nature. Every one know>t that, within the last two centuries, a method of studying the course of nature has been in- troduced which has been so successful in enabling us to trace the sequence of cause and effect as almost to revolutionise society. The very fact that scientific method has been so successful here leads to the belief that it might be equally successful in othei departments of inquiry. The same remarks will apply to the questions connected with banking and currency ; the standard of value ; and, indeed, all subjects which have a 'financial bearing. On every such question we see wide 'differences of opinion without any common basis to rest upon. It may be said, in reply, that in these cases there are really no grounds for forming an opinion, and that the contests which arise over them are merely those between conflicting interests. But this claim is not at all consonant with the form which we see the discus- sion assume. Nearly every one has a decided opinion on these several subjects ; whereas, if there were Ho data for forming an opinion, it would be unreasonable to maintain any whatever. In- deed, it is evident that there must b« truth somewhere, and the only question that can be open is that of the mode of discovering it. No man imbued with a scientific spirit can claim that such truth is beyond the power of the human intellect. He may doubt his own ability to grasp it, but cannot doubt that by pursuing the proper method and adopting the best means the problem can be solved. It is, in fact, difficult to show why some exact results could not be as certainly reached in economic questions as in those of physical science. It is true that if we pursue the inquiry far enough we shall find more complex conditions to encounter, because the future course of demand and supply enters as an uncertain f THE RELATION OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD eleraeot. But a remarkable fact to be considered w that the difler- ence of opinion to which we allude does not depend upon different edtinaatea of the future, but upou different views of the most element- ary and general principles of the subject. It is as if men were not agreed whether air were elastic or whether the earth turns on its axis. Why is it that while in all subjects of physical science we find a general at^reenieut through a wide range of subjects, and doubt commences only where certainty is not attained, yet when we turn to economic subjects* we do not fiud the beginning of an agreement? No two answers can be given. It is because the two classes of subjects are investigated by different instruments and in a different spirit. The physicist has an exact nomenclature ; uses methods of research well adapted to the objects he has in view ; pursues his in- vestigations without being attacked by those who wish for different results; and, above all, pursues them only for the purpose of dis- covering the truth. In economical questions the cane is entirely different. Only in rare cases are they studied without at least the suspicion that the student has a preconceived theory to support. If results are attained which oppose any powerful interest, this interest can hire a competing investigator to bring out a different result. So far as the public can see, one man's result is as good as another's, and thus the object is as far off as over. We may be sure that until there is an intelligent and rational public, able to distinguish be- tween the speculations of the charlatan and the researches of the investigator, the present state of things will continue. What we want is so wide a diffusion of scientific ideas that there shall be a class of men engaged in studying economical problems for their own sake, and an intelligent public able to judge what they are doing. There must be an improvement in the objects at which they aim in education, and it is now worth while to inquire what that improve- ment is. It is not mere instruction in any branch of technical science that is wanted. No knowledge of chemistry, physics, or biology, how- ever extensive, can give the learner much aid in forming a cor- rect opinion of such a question as that of the currency. If we should claim that political economy ought to be more extensively studied, we would be met by the question, which of several conflict- ing systems shall we teach ? What is wanted is not to teach this system or that, but to give such a training that the student shall be able to decide for himself which system is right. TO SOCIAL PKOORKflS. ! It seeiDH to me thaf the true educational want is ignored both bj those who advocate a classical and those who advocate a scientific education. What is really wautcd is to train the intellectual pow- ers, and the question ought to be, what is the best method of doing this? Perhaps it might be found that both of the conflicting methods could be improved upon. The really distinctive features, which we should desire to see introduced, are two in number : the one the scientific spirit; the other the scientific discipline. Al- though many details may be classified under each of these heads, yet there is one of pre-emiuent importance on which we should insist. The 6ne feature of the scientific spirit which outweighs all others in importance is the love of knowledge for its own sake. If by our system of ef the Ian- rises from i sdentifie ''"--Ur*,-* -^ discipline, to think of words expressing sensible objects and their relations as connoting certain supersensuous attributes. This is fre- quently seen, in the repugnance of the metaphysical mind to receive a scientific statement about a matter of fiust simply as a matter of fact. This repugnance does not generally arise in respect to the every day matters of life. When we say that the earUi is round we state a truth which every one is willing to receive as final. If without denying that the earfh was round, one should criticise the statement on the ground that it was not necessarily round but might be of some other form, we should simply smile at this use pf language. But when we take a more general statement and assert that the laws of nature are inexorable, and that all phenomona, so far as we can show, occur in obedience to their requirements, we are met with a sort of criticism with which all of us are familiar, and which I am unable adequately to describe. No one duties that as a matter of fact, and as far as his experience extends, these laws do appear to be inexorable. I have never heard of any one professing, during the present generation, to describe a natural phenomenon, with the aVowed belief that it was not a product of natural law ; yet we constantly hear the scientific view criticised on the ground that events may occur without being subject to natural law. The word " may," in this connection, is one to which we can attach no meaning expressive of a sensuous relation. This is, however, not the most frequent misuse of the word may. In fact, the unscientific use of language to which I refer, is most strongly shown in disquisitions on the freedom of the will. When I say that it is perfectly certain that I will to-morrow perform a certain act unless some cause external to my mind which I do not now foresee occurs to prevent me, I make a statement which is final so far as scientific ideas are concerned. But it will sometimes be maintained that however certain it may be that I shall perform this act, nevertheless I may act otherwise. All I can say to this is that I do not understand the meaning of the statement. The analogous conflict between the scientific use of language and the use made by some philosophers, is found in connection with the idea of causation. Fundamentally the word cause is used in soientifio language in the same sense as in the language of com- mon life. When we discuss with our neighbors the cause of a fit of illness, of a fire, or of cold weather, not the slightest ambiguity attaches to the use of the word, because whatever meaning may THE RELATION OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD be g^ven to it is founded only on an accurate analysis of the ideas involyed in it from driily use. No philosopher objects to the com- mon meaning of the vrord, yet we frequently find men of eminence in the intellectual >vorld who will not tolerate the scientific man in using the word in this way. In every explanation which he can give to its use they detect ambiguity. They insist that in any proper use of the term the idea of power must be connoted. But what meaning is here attached to the word power, and how shall we first reduce it to a sensible form, and then apply its mean- ing to the operations of nature? That this can be done, I by no means deny. All I maintain is that if we shall do it, we must pass without the domain of scientific statement. Perhaps the greatest advantage in the use of symbolic and other mathematical language in scientific investigation is that it cannot pos- sibly be made to connote anything except what the speaker means. It adheres to the subject matter of discourse with a tenacity which no criticism can overcome. In consequence, whenever a science is reduced to a mathematical form its conclusions are no longer the subject of philosophical attack. To secure the same desirable quality in all other sciratiSc language it is necessary to give it, so fiir as possible, the same simplicity of signification which attaches io mathematical symbols. Tliis is not easy, because we are obliged to use words of ordinary language, and it is impossible to divest them of whatever they may connote to ordinary bearers. ' I have thus sought to make it clear that the language of science corresponds to that of ordinary life, and especially of business life, in confining its meaning to phenomena. An analogous statement may be made of the method and objects of scientific investigation. I think Professor CliflTord was very happy in defining science as organiased common sense. The foundation of its widest general creations is laid, not in any artificial theories, but in the natural belieft and tendencies of the human mind. Its position against those who deny these generalizations is quite analogous to that taken by the Scottish school of philosophy against the skepticism of Hume. It may be asked, if the methods and language of science corres- pond to those of practical life,— why is not the every day discipline of that life as good as the discipline of science? The Ruswer is, that the power of transferring the modes of, thought of common life to subjects of a higher order of geuerality is a rare faculty I wiS»^»mmmiiat0»mmUmtm Mastjftn*"'^ To SOCIAL PBOOltBSS. 16 which can be acquired only by scientific discipline. What we want is that in public affairs men shall reason about questions of finance, trade, national wealth, legislation and administration with the same consciousness of the practical side that they reason about their own interests. When this habit is once acquired and appreciated, the scientific method will naturally be applied to the study of questions of social policy. When a scientific interest is taken in such ques- tions, their boundaries will be extended beyond the utilities imme- diately involved, and then the last condition of unceasing progress will be complied with. ( iTiiiiiiiHniliiWiiilni-iiilir.;!'