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Les diagrammes suivants illustrent la mdthode. 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 i '^/^/^-/iik S^^-,-:^-^^ :t^ o T E s ON THE PEINCIPLES OE PCPPLATION. MONTKEAL COMPARED WITH LUNDON, (M.ASGOW, AND MANCIIESTKR, WITH AN EXAMINATION OP Till!; VITAL STATISTICS IJV I'llILIl' 1'. CAIM'KNTIOU, 15.A., I'h., i). OXK OF TUK HON. SKCUETAIUKS OF THE MONTKF.AJ. SANITAllV ASSOCIATION. liV ANDREW A. WATT. UEVRINTEB KIIOM THIS " WITNKSS" AND "PAILY NKVVS." PUBLISHED BY MURRAY & CO., STATIONEE^S' HALT.. 1869. , \ 7, 24 4753 i\ CANADA NATIONAL LIBRARY BIBLIOTHEQUE NATIONALE J 1 1 k 1^ Cj^y^-f U '^ km PREFACE. In the autumn of 1855, when the weekly returns of the burials in the City were attracting a good deal of attention, I sent a letter, containing the substance of the following articles, to a City newspaper and ita publication was declined. In 1859, a committee of gentlemen republished and distributed, gratis, the essay by Dr. Carpenter, which appeared in the Canadian Naturalist and Geologist of June that year, I again, addressed a letter on the subject of Vital Statistics to a City paper and it was rejected. In February, 1861, I wrote a review of Dr. Carpenter's essay for the Gazette, but, after the appearance of three parts, it was discontinued on account of the great delay in publication. In Feb., 18G5, the Gazette, in an article, " London vs. Llontreal " said ''that out of a 100,000 people resident here, nearly 1200 more died per annum than would die in the heart of London, &c., &c." Aft.r an inter- view with the Editors another letter was rejected. In August last the whole of the tables werd submitted to the Witnets and their publication agreed upon. But the expense of setting up the type was so great, that a large portion of the second and nearly the whole of the third articles had to be withdrawn. The invitation given in the City Couucil, on the 13th September, in- duced me to write the second article, in which there is introduced a portion of the matter written for the Witness. Mr. Lovell, who thought the first essay worth republication, willingly published the second. These facts will account, in some degree, for the very imperfect form in which the notes appear. Andrew A. Watt. Montreal, 8th November, 1869. Va J-) :sroTES ON THE PRINCIPLES OF POPULATION. MONTREAL COMPARED WITH LONDON, GLASGOW, AND MANCHESTER. From the Montreal Witness. Table showing the population, number of marriages, baptisms and buriak in the city of Montreal in the 14 years from January 1855, to Dceembar, 1868. The population is increased at 5.10 per cent, per annum ; the rate of increase between the Census years 1852 and ISGl. The number of marriages and baptisms is from the Clergy returns, and is incomplete. The number of burials is from the Cemetery returns, and includes still-born and unbaptized children. All the calculations are made on the population at the beginning of the year. The rates would be reduced about one-tenth per cent., if made on the population at the middle of the year. In comparing Montreal with cities in which registration is com- pulsory, not ' that, in Montreal, baptisms only are recorded, so that to get the true birth-rate the number of still-born and unbaptized children must be added ; and that, if the rate of mortality is spoken of, the number of still-born must be deducted from the burials in Montreal, or added to the number of deaths in the city with which comparison is made. TABLE I. >> 2s o BAFTISMB. BUU1AL8. • • el "21 •PI c/j to a Ti « ? s: go's u a • top .£ a a. .s pa^ ^ 3 C5 ?3 « i- Q (^"s = i. CS 185.1 €7002 789 3289 241(5 85 4.91 4.17 3.60 73.45 im> 7041'J 8S9 3.-J82 2300 79 5.08 4.03 3.35 65.88 3857 74010 h'.ir> 37s4 24!tO 89 5.11 5.53 3.3(5 &5.80 185S 77784 740 3819 2510 105 4.91 5.10 3.22 00.72 185!) Slim 854 4238 27(50 97 5.1H 4.90 3.38 65.26 1860 85019 844 443'~ 3171 1(J2 5.10 6.26 3.(59 71.45 1861 90323 919 4579 3181 98 5.00 4.98 3.52 69.46 1802 94020 925 4811 3401 103 5 00 5.20 3.64 71.93 1863 99770 1103 5:i88 300)5 90 5.40 4.88 3.01 60.93 18(54 1(4858 tl041 t5080 4701 loo 4.85 4.88 4.48 92.43 1805 11(1200 1097 f.543 4025 100 5.03 6.06 8.05 72.01 1800 11582(5 1110 5158 301O 104 4.45 4.02 3.11 09.98 1807 12173:i 1273 6598 4465 95 4.(30 4.40 3.(57 70.70 1808 1:^7941 *1085 *6100 4839 •118 *4.03 *4.75 3.78 97.77 14yH 1322470 13510 64473 47601 118 4.03 4.03 3.11 Low est . . 65.26 ost . . in 1868 in 186S in 1850 iu 1866 iu 1859 liiRl. 79 5.40 6.26 4.48 97.77 in 185G in 1863 iu 1860 in 186^ in 1868 Appa rent 94462 965 4605 3400 1.022 4.882 4.779 3.599 73.72 p. ct. or or or 1 111 98 1 in 20 1 ill 28 of pop. lof pop. of i)op. Jlairiages to i'opul'n. One in Births one in AjipartMit D'tii riito, one in Deaths on I'.irthH per cent. London (Jlctropolis) Registered 1-338- 1841 Glasgow, Kcgislerod, 1855-1857 London City, Itegii^toied, 1859, a healthy year 101 111 72 34 26 40 38 35 44 86.210 71.S64 89.202 The number of Marriages In London is greatly in excess of other cities, as many persons, who reside elsewhere, go there to be married. Before proceeding to examine Tabic I, it is well to state that a Census of Montreal was made in 1844, 1852, and 1861, From 1844 to 1852 the annual rate of increase was nearly 3.5 per cent, and from 1852 to 1861 it was 5.1 per cent. It has been thought proper to calculate the increase at the average rate, as it does not materially affect the general average. A calcu- lation, made from the list of voters, and the number of houses •August 20th— Eight Clergymen have notyot sent in their registers. In 1867 they recorded 134 Marriages and 403 Baptisms. f In the abstract of marriages and baptisms made by the Prothonotarjr for 1864, there is an omission, which caused the alteration of the figures for that year. I built, might enable a closer cstlnifite of the pnpulitioii to be mado for ?onio years, but, after all, probably no two persons would be agreed on the subject. During the first 7 years em- braced in the table, the marriiiro rate was 1 iu every 03 of the peo- ple ; while during the remaining 7 years, it fell to 1 in 101, indicating that in the former period the population was larger than is calculated ; or that, in tlie latter period, the people wore less disposed to enter into the married state. In the first 7 years the baptisms were 5 per cent, on the popu- lation ; a decline of 1-Oth in the marriage rate in the second period would give 4.45 per cent, as the proportionate rate ; the returns show 4.78, or an increase of one third per cent., in the lecundity of the population, supposing the returns to have been made with equal care. The apparent increased fecundity of the people would be still farther augmented were the returns completed, as supplementary returns have been niade for the earlier, and are wanting for the later years. The record of the Catholic population is made with great care and punctuality, and includes 78 per cent, of the baptisms To show how very little value can be placed on Clergy returns, it ia sufficient to state that eight of the city Cler- gymen have not yet sent in their registers for 18G8, and that in 1857 additional returns were received for the District of Mon- treal for the preceding 17 years! The number of burials in the Cemetery returns exceeds the num- ber registered by the Clergy by fully G per cent, on the whole num- ber. The Cemetery returns may be said to represent the city as more unhealthy than it really is, in a degree nearly e(jual to that in which the record of baptisms falls short of the actual births. No deduction is made for the number coming from the country, as it is, probably, not very much larger than in other cities, and does not add one quarter per cent, to the burial rate. It is well to note, however, that in ISGO the returns show 313 from the country, or 10 per cent, of the burials. In the Census the deaths in 1860 are given as 2,038, or only two thirds of the burials according to the Cemeterv returns. The difficulties attending the subject of vital statistics must now be apparent to the reader ; and as an admirable example of the absurdities written -upon it, we quote from an essay by Philip P. Carpenter, B.A., Ph. D., Hon. Sec. of the Montreal Sanitary- Association, which appeared in the Canadian Naturalist and Geologist in June, 1850. "For the year 1851, we are in possession of tables, very care- fully drawn out, both of the population and of deaths, arranged accordinsj to diffiirent ages and conditions, in the various cities and districts of Upper and Lower Canada. It is not pretended that these tables are precisely correct. Still, each of the Upper Cana- dian cities, where deaths at least are recorded, shows so healthy a ii condition tliat the niortalitj' of the country is probably not uiuch greater than tliat recorded." These remarks are confirmed by anotlier article in the same ni.i- f^azinc, in April 1807. Every Englishman knows tliat the death- rate in all i'hijrljind, is al>out 2,2 por cent., or 1 in 45 of the livin«», but the tables of which the essayist writes, i^ive to Upper Canada a death-rate of only '82 per cent., or 1 in 124; and to Lower Canada, I.IU per cent., or 1 in 'JO! In En'ijland in the 4 years 1838-1841 the lowest :ipparent doath-ratc was in the South Western division, 1 in 54 (in c(iual numbers of males and females) ; and this rate wasi attained under the very low birth-rate of 2.907 per cent., or tlie second lowest in all the divisions. Before comparing: the rate of mortality in 3Iontrcal, with that which lias obtained in other cities, it may be well to point out that we are not to reason like Dr Farr, in the appendix to the Fifth Annual Report of the l{ei:istrar-Ccneral, when he says, — " Wher- ever from the conibiiied ellects of intemperance, dirt, bad ventil- ation and draiii:i<.;e, the niort; Mty is <:reatest, there also the ratio of births to the pi)pulation is the highest. " But we nmst sai/, wherever the ratio of hirtlis to the jmpidatioii U the highest, there ulso the mortalifi/ is greatest ; and, the conditions heing equal, irill he in 2)roj)nrtion to thehirth-rate. Commenting on Dr. Farr'.s observation, Charles A. Coke in " The Census of the British Em- pire," in 1801, p. 83, selects two groups of districts in the Metrop- olis. The 1st includes St. Giles and Whitcchapel, showing a birth-rate of 33 in 1000 and a death-rate of 27 in the 1000. The 2nd includes London City Union, and JSt. James, Westminster, and sliows a birth-rate of 20-^ in the 1000, and a death-rate of 22-^ in 1000. lie then writes, " These combinations or comparisons show extraordinary results. Li group 1 there is the greater mor- tality existing, — at the same time the greater increase of births. In group 2, as if in defiance of al! natural law, with a decreased mortality, with more liealth — more vigor, we have a decrease in the number of b'rths, and hence the scientific observations of Dr. Farr are here fully confirmed." Mr. Coke is a compiler of statistics, but does not understand them. If 2G^ births in 1000, in group 2, gives 2'2\ deaths in 1000, 33 births in group 1 should give 28 deaths, so that the result is, of course, in accordance witli all " Na- tural law." If the figures arc reliable, group 1 is more healthy than I )up 2, as it actually produces children at a loss of 27 per 1000 instead of 28, the proportionate rate and did so on the average of 10 years 1850-lSGO. The llegistrar-General, Major George Graham, makes the same mistake ; in the official report quoted by Mr. Coke on page 86, he says : " It is a fact well worthy of notice, that the county of Lan- cashire, witli a population less than that of London by about 380,000 I . and living on an area nearly seventeen times as larp;o, has returned almost as many deaths as the Metropolis, — the difference bein^ only 180." The 7V»jrs endorses the statement. The figures arc not quoted, but reference to the Fourth Annual report of the Kei:;istrf.r- General, 1838-1841, shows that the Metropolis had to an equal number of males and females, the third lowest birth-rate and the second highest death-rate. The North Western division, Lancas- ter and Chester, shows the highest birth-rate and, of course, the highest death rate. The figures are, in the IMetropolis, 2.9(50 per cent, of births gave 2.557 per cent, of deaths, therefore, 3.62G per cent, of births in Lancashire should give 3.12<> per cent, of deaths. The death-rate in Lancashire was actually 2.784 or -342 per cent, less than the proportionate rate, because it includes town and coun- try. Why do the two divij^ions now show nearly the same number of deaths? Because, mainly, of the increase of dilFerence in the birth-rate, caused by a decliiu in the rate in the IMetropolis, or an increase in the rate in Lancashire, or both combined; and the relatively increased migration of people to the Metropolis. It appears from Table L that the baptisms in Montreal average nearly 5 per cent, on the population ; adding the number of still- born and unbaptized c' ildren, the birth-rate is estimated at 5.083 per cent, or :oaily double the rate in London in 1841. The proportionate numbers alive at the same ages must, therefore, be greatly different in Montreal from what they were in London, especially at birth and during infancy. This is clearly shown iu TABLE II. Table showing the number of nersoiis alive, at tlio spocifiod aijpa, 'n ^londcal, and tlio pmijortioiiate number tliat would liavo li'ou alive in London, dlasj^ow, and 31ancliooter, sujiposiiig eacli city to have Imil tliu s^amc uuiubor of Inhabitants. AGE. Montroal in ISUI. 3700* 3183 28^3 2821 2C00 151 on lo:j;3 oano 10800 I.ondoi 3Ii'troi)()li in 1841. (ihii^jrow in 1851 2924 2330 21(17 2'i«3 1818 11242 04. iO 0140 lOltjO .Maiichostcr and Salford in 1841. Under 1 j'oa r 10740 81*0;-) 8217 8307 10731 10524 18420 14113 o;tti5 5014 3558 2i2(i 90300 From 1 to 2 voars * * * * " 2 to 3 " " ■ ' • 3 to 4 " • • • • " 4 ti> 5 " .... Oto 5 '• 11010 " 5 to 10 " " 10 to 15 " !t.;it7 !)ii01 " 16 to 20 " 9007 " Oto 10 " 25550 2()o00 13171 11044 7248 447^i 2400 1272 20711 10309 10711 1280(5 85S9 5143 27;)9 i232 90300 21517 " 10 to 20 " ' 20 to 80 " 18101 18(V'2 " 30 to 40 " " 40 to 50 " 14000 0040 " 50to(jO " 40l9 " 60 to 70 " 2772 Above 70 and unknown " 70 iiio Total Topnlation 90323 90300 * 31ust have been 4508, according to the Kegister of IJaiitJsm.s. i i i !i 8 AcGonan:; to the census, Montrc:il liud 1-Gth of its popr.lation un- der 5 years of age, while London had only l-9th ; in other words, there were in Montreal nearly onv.-half more childen under 5 years than there were in London. So that, if the cities were equ'dly healthy, the deaths of children, in Montreal, under 5 years^ must have been one-half mor', than in London. The number alive in Montreal under one year is clearly incorrect, as the averaj^c number of baptism?, in 1800 and ISDl is SOS more than in the census, so that at least 80S should be added to the number under one year. In the Ctai'idini Natamtlst for April, 1SG7, there is a table intended to show the number of deaths under 5 years compared with 1000 deaths at all ages in ^Montreal, London, &g. Montreal seems to have mors than one-half more deaths than London, an.d relyinrn alive and not registered. As the rate of Tiiortality in the British cities is calculated at tiie rate observed on the livinir, 548 must be add- ed to their burials, as the number who uied very shortly^ after birth, in Montreal, not appoarin^ in the number of the liyinc;, and therefore not submitted to the death-rate in the j3ritish cities. Bear in mind that the rates for London, ttc, are applied to the population of Slontrcal, where births are not recorded, and that in 1860, the register of the Roman Catholic Cemetery shows 2557 burials, of which 596 were still-born and under I .noi>th, and that the Grey Nuns' Foundling Hospital receives all children taken to it ; that in 13G0 it received 210 from Upper and Lowei- Canada and 357 from the city and tlu* Unitod States. Of the 507 received, 414 diud within the veiir. TAUI.l. III. Table .«howinf? tlii> nurnlior of Uiiria'.* in Montreal iviilcr c l,i'/h h'trth rate; and tilt! number that would liavo been rcnordiid in London, (iIa«}»ovv and jVIiUichestt'r, n.idcr a CDinparatu'ch/ low lUrth-rato (tirl nt tho rdtio <>/ M(trt(t.}it>i which ptctHulnl in i'h"'n; supposinj^ the population, in each city to havp boen 9U,300, and tlio nuiubi'r livinjj at each aj^e to have been the same iis in Montreal in Jauu try, ISfjl, The Table exhibits the apparent rato rate of Morlnlity; the fruc rate can only bp ascertained by ntakinf? the corrections lor ihcdiUbrcnce in birth-rate, and theincrear-c by inimigratiou during tlie year. Living in Montreal. | 1 Mon 18 nve u treal 51. •age ar. v. "a 3 w - ' Lon Metri lS3i don* )pulis, i-41. It 5 Glas 18. averaj. s. o C^J I'i'ici i!278 .731 .853 1.02t) ] 504 •J. 057 2.',)()S 5.502 15.370 4. 29 J gow* ■)1, e year •/. .3 "S a 240 543 1848 Manchostfr and Salford, 1838-1841. a •jliis V, Still-born Died of number not re- corded at living in Montreal to 5 years t 15190 io3(i;j !)20i) 10800 18174 11044 7248 447G 24130 1272 250 543 1371 210 543 lo3t> 213S 131 40 72 lot] 154 148 17 155 254 is! in 270 543 2001 Oto 5 " 5 to 10 " lOto 15 " 15 to 20 " 21G4 I2y 05 70 179 175 128 i!29i 502 .057 .912 1.399 2.04) 2631 132 07 92 ISfJ 100 149 i;jo 135 195 i'.'m .(504 .913 1.192 1.054 2.339 3 493 (j.187 20.? 2814 lOJ 01 99 20 to -SO " 210 30 to 40 " 40 to 50 " 18.3 109 50 to 60 " 12tii .'?.2S4 150 (30 to 70 " Abovp70rnd unknown, at rate of all above 70 112 133 3181 28 5.890 20.? 3.780 152 254 Total ... 9f)323 3414 20 3883 4.729 4204 Living to one Burial... . 21 aee Table IV and page 29. 1 Seo note to Table IL ' 1 1 u 1 1 10 In London, in the four years cndinj; with June 1841, the birth rate was about 2-954 and the death-rate 2-67G per cent, on che whole population. If, then, 2*954 of births gave 2-67o per cent, of deaths in London, 5- (183 per cent, of births in Montreal should have given 5*148 per cent, of deaths, or 1 to every 19 of the popu- lation. ■ I Table T, shows the burials in 31ontrcal to have been only 1 in 28 on the average of 14 years. How comes it then, that Montreal has been so much uiisrepre sented ? The difference between the apparent rate in Montreal and the number that would have died in London, 1 in 19, supposing its popul ition had been increased by the same birth-rate as prevailed in Montreal, is accounted for by the difference in the rate of increase by immigration. For example: , fn January, 1856, tlie popiilfitlon of Montre.al was 70,419 At the end of 10 years, the baptisms exceeded the buriaiS ot all born in thecilj and of imniigrfvnts, by. . 18-4G per c.,or. . 12,9!*7 Immigration must liave added 4(j-02 per c , or. . 32,410 Increase In ten years -. 0448 per c, or. ,45,407 In January 18G6 the population was 115,82G The Census of 18G1 sliows that London gained by immigration 7'9 per cent, on its popuhition iu 1851. These facts being known, the question is now comparatively simple. The ages of the immigrants to London and Montreal cannot be ascertain- ed, and it is presumed they were the same. The proportionate rate of mortality in Montreal has just been estimated at 5-lt3 p. c But Montreal gitined by innr.igration 4G'02 ]). c. While London gained only 7-9 per cent. : therefore the proportionate diilerence must be deducted from .Montreal . In London the increase by births was 10-7 per cent and by immigration 79. In Montreal the increase by births was 18-4G. The proportionate increase by im- migration is therefore 13G3 p. c. The difference 32-39 p. c. Must be deducted from the rate of mortality 1-6G7 The corrected rale for Montreal is thus siiown to be 3-481 p. c. 11 B41, the birth I" cent, on che •676 per cent, intrcal should ) of the popu- I een only 1 in icli misrepre ' in Montreal 3n, 1 in 19, rne birth-rate erence in the 70,419 . 12,9s>r ..'52,410 45,407 115,820 •ation 7-9 per Lively simple, be ftscertain- Duate rate of • .5-l-i3 p. c . c. c. c. . i-Gt;7 3-481 p. G. The corrected rate must now be appIie^l to the average popu- lation of Montreal, in table I, 94,462, which shows that the deaths would have been ; 3288 Ths Cemetery returns of burials gave an average of 3400 From which deduct 7-8C6 per cent, of still born children, being the average of six years, according to the register of the llonnt Royal Cemetery, and this is certainly below the number 267 The deaths are thus shown to have been 3133 So that the proportionate number who died in London on the average of the above 4 years teas 155 per annum, more than died in Montreal on the average of the ^ 4 years ending u-ilh 18G8. =. This result is in perfect accordance, with table 3, which show.*? that the rate of mortality in Londen would have caused 2H3 more deaths in Montreal in 1801 than were recorded; or 78 more than the estimate for 14 years. Table I. shows that the rate of mort- ality in 18G1 was 3-52 or -08 per cent less than the average; which accounts for 72 of the seeming difference between the rate expe- rienced in Londoii and the estimate based on the number of births in each city. As these hurriedly written articles must now be closed, the following are submitted as legitimate conclusions : — 2'hat the birth-rate is the certain controlling element of the death-rate ; that before the relative health of different communities can be compared, the apparent rate of mortal iti/ must be corrected for the rate of increase by birth and immigration ; that, should the birth-rate in Mo7itreal continue as it is. and the immig ration fait off to the London rate, the death-rate will gradually a2)pear to in- crease till it becomes 1 in 19 ; but should the birth-rate decline in proportion to the immigration, the death-rate will remain as it is ; ami that, should the birth-rate decline to that of London, and the immigration continue as in the j^f^st; the rate of mortality toill gfadually seem to be becoming less, ichile in fact it may be the same. Experience. Montreal, August, 18G0. ■ m NOTES ON THE PRINCIPLES OF POPULATION. From the Daily News ofHWi Oct. The Vital Statistics op Montreal. By Philip P. Carpenter, B.A., Ph.D. The Year Book of Canada. In an article which appeared in the Witness of the 20th August there is the following sentence. " The dificulties attending the subject of vital statistics must now be apparent to the reader • and as an admirable example of the absurdities written on the subject, we quote from an essay by Philip P. Carpenter B A Ph.D., Hon. Secretary of the Montreal S.vr.itary Association' which appeared in the Canadian Naturah.f and Geologist in June 1859."* As px-oof of the statement it was thoudit sufficient to quote a few lines from the essay in which it is affirmed that : " For the year 1851, we are in possession of tables very carefully drawn out both of the population and of deaths, arranged accord- ing to different ages and conditions, in the various °ci ties and districts of Upper and Lower Canada, &c., &c." And to state that the rate of mortality for the two Provinces was respectively 1 in 124 and 1 in 76 of the population, according to the tables of which Dr. Carpenter wrote so favourably. It was also stated that in England the rate of mortality was 1 in 45. The reader was expected to reason thus : If in England 1 in 45 dies each year, it is not likely that in Lower Canada, only 1 in 76 dies, p.nd it is quite impossible that the people of Upper Canada can be so healthy that only 1 in 124 dies in a year, and therefore Dr. Ciirpenter can not be conversant with the subject of vital statistics. It would seem that too much had been expected from some readers, for when Alderman Dcvid called attention to the subject ,,r*.J^® sentence was correctly printed in the morning edition only Without the knowledge of the writer, it was changed to ; " The difficul- ties attending the subject of vital statistics must be apparent from an ?8say by Phili]. P. Carpenter, Ac, u I ! . iliif ' H ! i •ii ■ i ■ 1 ■■ i 1 ■ i i i 1 ' in the City Council, on the 13th September, the Mayor, who is President of the Sanitary Association, said that " Dr. Carpenter was a very clever man, and was usually very cautious in publishing any statements that were susceptible of doubt or uncertainty ;" and Councillor G. W. Stephens, who is one of the Council of the Sanitary Association, affirmed that "Dr. Carpenter had given his figures and data for the conclusions arrived at, and they could not be disproved, and that it was useless to attempt to disbelieve the facts given in the Doctor's communications, however unpalatable they might be." An attempt will now be made to prove that Dr. Carpenter's fisrures are incorrect, and that his conclusions cannot be drawn from his figures. It is lioped that they who have assisted by their subscriptions in publishing statements highly injurious to the interests of the city, will examine for themselves the correctnes>i of the following remarks. It is presumed that the conductors of the Cunadian Naturalist nnd Geolof^ist, and the many able men whose names appear in the list of the Council of the Sanitary Association, are not in any way responsible for the statements of Dr. Carpenter, In fact, the second Honorary Secretary would seem to be the Association, for tho President at the annual meeting in April last, said: " This Association is chiefly indebted for all its progress and all its good results to the indefatigable labours and great ability of an eminent citizen, I mean Dr. Carpenter, whom Providence seems to have sent to our city to save our lives against our very wills as it were." It would be unjust to the first Honorary Secretary, A. B. Larocque, M.D., who is entirely ignored by the President, not to state, that he is the first to sign the Report which adopts all the statements of Philip P. Carpenter, B.A., Ph.D. To complete the general survey of the position it is necessary to sate, that Dr. Carpenter has published three essays, under different titles, but all relating to the vital statistics of Diontriaal. They appeared in June, 1859, April, 18G7, and June, 18G9. The subject i- his hobby. It is not new to him. In 1859, he thought himself ^o familiar with it, that though merely on a visit in the city, he ijoclared that " IVie people of Montreal kdl off thirteen hiuidretl nid sixf_>/-Jive of their own flesh and blood, every year; ••**•• to say nothing of hundreds of lives more, which coun- try and towns' people alike sacrifice on the altar of self-indulgence." This is a very serious charge. But the following pen and ink sketch of Montreal, in 1867, shows that Dr. Carpenter is really in earnest. " Liverpool is a commercial city like our own, with great natural advantages, but cursed with a neglect of the sanitary laws. It is cursed also by drink and by debauchery, to a greater extent than any other town in England. Being the most criminal as well as 15 ayor, who is r. Carpenter n publishing; ncertainty ;" )uncil of the ad given his ey could not isbelieve the unpalatable Carpenter's drawn from 3d by their ious to the correctness Naturalist 3pear in the in any way 1 fact, the Association, id: "This ill its good an eminent lis to have IS it were." , Larocqup, I state, that itements of HRcessary ys, under Fi-'ontroal. .869. The le thought isi^. in the ^ff thirteen 7QTy yesLT ; liich coun- lulgence." 1 and ink s really in at natural ws. It is :tent than as well as the most unhealthy city in the Island, it is called the Plague-fipot on th^ Mersey. Yet the Pliiijue-spot on the St. Lawrence is nearhj twice m fatal, in the fiist^ year of buing, as the polluted Queen of the Mersey." As a few remarks will suffice to dispose of the article on the Census in the Year Booh, and with it the Census, which is thq foundation oii which Dr. Carpenter lias based nearly all his com- parisons, they will now be made. The publishers of the Year JJnok of Canada, in the advertise- ment of the furthcoming volume intimate that " the editor-in- chief is Arthur Harvey, Esq. (Fellow of the Statistical Society of London) of the Finance Department, Ottawa," and that "no error of statistics in any of the past editions has been discovered." They probably mean that official figures have been correctly copied, but in the article, " Notes on the Census " on page G of the volume for 1869, it is stated that the f gures showing'the increase of population " are avowedly based upon the annual rate of pro- gress of each Province between the last two Census, and many persons have written to the editor to express their doubt whether that rate has really been maintained. The subject had received much thought before any figures were published, and subsequent reflection and enquiry have confirmed the belief in their general accuracy." The number of births and deaths in each Province is given, and then, from " a table deduced by Mr. Samml lliown F S. S., frorn^ M. Quetclet's figures, we have the foUowiiu iable, of the fecundity and mortality for European countries and our own." After the table it is added : " Of course these figures are considerably influenced by the emigration which leaves Europe for America, which being usually of people in the prime of life, swells the birth-rate here much sooner than the death-rate. But after making all allowances for this, and for possible inaccuracies in our Census, the influence (inference?) remains, that the natural in- crease of the population of the Dominion is one of the most rapid in the world, &c." The Census was taken in January, 18G1, so that the births and deaths recorded are for the year 1860 ; but Mr. Brown has not observed this, and calculated the rates as if returned by the population of 18G1. The birth-rate in Ontario is given as 3*31 and the death-rate as 0-71 (should be 0-73) per cent. If the birth-rate is calculated on the population of January, 1860, it will be about 3- 97 per cent. The result is an error of 0-16 per cent, equal to 2334 births on the population in January, 1861. The number of births in Ontario may be accepted as accurate ; the number of deaths will now be shown to be incor- rect. The increase of population is given as 4-34 per cent, per annum. f 1 If i I 16 Witliout ffoinpr into details the case stands thus': In January. Population. lirths. IPfJO 1282000 51200 1860 1338000 53178 18C1 1396091 The rate of niortnlity in Enc^hind, according: to the Carlisle tabic, (sec article on Interest and Annuities in " McCuIloch's Dictionary of Commerce") is not very diiFerent from the present rate, and is sufllciently correct for our purpose. The children born previous to 1859 will not be taken into account; anJ for con- venience suppose that the above 51200 were born on 1st Janu- ary, 1859. The Carlisle table shows that of 1000 born at the same time, 15-40 p< r cent, die during the first year, so that, the number alive in January, 1800, would be reduced to 4;?315. The deaths in 18G0 must, therefore, have been of children in the first and second years, as follows : — Number Living. Deaths Of Children in 2n(i year 43315 at 8-03 per cent 3478 Of Children i3orn in 1860 53178 ut 15-40 " 8189 9G493 , HG67 Deduct number of deaths 11667 84826 Add 1311265 ? Population in 1861 1396091 11667 The deaths according to the Census were 10160 So that, the deaths of children of the 1st and 2nd year, exceeded the total number recorded in the Province of Ontario by 1507 ! In fact, the deaths in Ontario must have been equal to the entire number returned by the whole population of the Dominion. The Census of 1852 was equally as inaccurate as that of 1861, yet Dr. Carpenter wrote that it was " very carefully drawn out." It follows then, that all statements made by Dr. Carpenter and other writers as to the relative health of different parts of the Dominion, based on the Census, have no value whatever, unless by way of showing:, that they who relied on them were wholly unac- quainted with the subject of vital statistics. Let us now return to Dr. Carpenter and see how he deals with Montreal, merely noticing by the way, that he has the presumption to claim, that he was the first *' to attempt to eliminate and explain the sanitary statistics of Canada." As was to be expected, the diflBculty now is, not to find mistakes, but to know how to give anything like an adequate idea of their number and magnitude, and of the sort of reasoning to which he has to resort to try and defend his position. s. 8 ) the Carlisle * McCulloch's 11 the present The children . ; arul for con- on 1st Janu- born at the r, so that, the 3 43315. The en in the first Deaths )er cent 3478 " 8189 11667 ceded 11667 10160 1507! I equal to the le Dominion, that of 1861, drawn out," Carpenter and parts of the ;er, unless by wholly unac- he deals with presumption limiuate and be expected, tnow how to d magnitude, »rt to try and 17 Of tiik population of ]Mont«,eal. — Dr. Carpenter, in 1859, wrote that he was unable to find any more accurate returns of tlic population than he gave, be,i>innin,i; with the census of 1851 (should be 1852) and ending with 1858. In the years given in his table, the InrtJis are stated to have ':{ (1 II II 63 (t II (1 1 in 71 II i( (« 48 II It l< 1 in 1'25 ;^ To attain such a condition not a single birth could be allowed, because it would iiicre.ise the rate of mortality ; and as the deaths increase with age, such a low rate, could not by any possibility be continued, unless, all above the average age were replaced, each year, by more valuable lives. Having in his lirf>t essay compared IMontreal with the adjacent country, he continues : " Montreal was not the only city which was scourged by cholera. Vaudreuil and Lachine, in its immediate vicinity, shared the plague, Sic." In 1852 Lachine had a popu- lation of 1075, and Vaudreuil 413! (ISee Canadian Almanac for 1S53, page 71)). On the same pige he discourses on innuigration. " Tiie prin- cipal way, " he says, " in which immigrants affect the returns is by increasing the population. This will probably lessen the; average of later years. " As the popdation has been increu.sed the death-rate must appear to have been lessened, and the appar- ent decrease of mortality will take place at once (presuming the immigrants to be above 10 years), and become less from year to year, as their lives mature quickly with the advance of age. (See Carlisle table, or English Insurance Compmiy's Experience in Ahnanac referred to). " Then he wrote " The tide of im- migration affected Toronto fully as much as Montreal; yet its mortality is considerahly less than half that of its older sister." If Toronto appeared to be as stated, it was chiefly in consequence of tlie high tide of immigration. Referring to Montreal he wrote : ''• As an offset to the increase of population (he meant to say, the increase of deaths from immigration ;) it may be necessary to say, that, in each year but one, several religious bodies sent in no returns " of deaths. So, Dr. Carpenter thinks that the immi- grants do not make the city appear more healthy. Is that the reason why he did not add even the excess of births over deaths to the population from 1851 to 1858 ? 21 }ntor mIiouIU ppju'cntly HO liigland, it is •. Probably ac(|uiicd by )ukl <^ivo the ) the lloynl 72, thero is c. 'i ho cx- ;h, wiiicli is ith rato of age. , bo allowcJ, .s tho doaths lossibility ])o placed, oach tho adjacent y which was i immediati; had a popu- Muiaiiac fur ' TJio priii- tho returns lessen tli(! 11 iiicrcu.sed the appar- sumiug tlie I'oiu year to CO of aue. Experience idc of im- al; yet its lor sister." 3 n sequence I ho wrote : to say, the -'cessary to ics sent in the iinmi- s that the ver deaths The subject of immigration is very simple. For example : \i\ January, IflOI, the population was 0032:J in 18: do do. Tlie baptisma durinfj tlio ypnrs wcro 32077 The doallis weio(ClcrBy returns for 18r)2-18.'4, and ceinotcry returns for other years. Dr. Carpenter's figures) 23722 The bapiisms added 15-r)2 per cent., or 89r>5 ImniiKnitiou " 4()-98 per cent., or 23053 r)771! Increase in 9 years 50 50, or 5-1 per cent. per annum 32G08 As all tho births were not registered, suppose tlio number of immigrants to have been 20000 in 9 years, and that their average ago was 20. ^'uppo>o they had boon born in the city, how m:iny births would have been rcfjuired to have produced the 20000 ? The Carlisle table shows that only 613 are alive at the end of 19 years, out <>i 1000 born at the same time, If 013 required 1000 birtiis, 20000 would have required Alive at tho .nd of 19 years 32627 20000 12027 So that, in 19 years, Montrpal would have buried .... of its population, in addition to the number who died in the city. The rate of mortality must therefore have appeared to be less than it really was, in consequence of tho immigration, because the number of immigrants has been added to tho population among whom tlie deaths are divided. In other words, every country that contributed an immigrant, bore its proportion of tho loss of tlie 12(527 deaths, and Montreal had a free gift of 20000 persons. Bat the more addition of tho numbers is not the whole of tho imme- diate apparent gain. Tho Carlisle tiblo shows that tho rato of mortality in the 20th year is onlv 0.05 per cent, so that of the 20000 immigrants only ll>0 would have died in that year. "Dr. Carpenter's table shows that the population of Montreal was dying at tho rato of H-G per cent, therefore 20C00 returned 720 doatlis; or out of 8011 citizens, as many died as would have died of 20000 immigrants, 20 years of age. Suppose that the 20000 had been added to the population in one year, 1852, instead of being divided among nine years, and that thejr had remained unmarried ; their effect on the death rate Avould have been an addition of only one sixteenth ; while they added more than one third to the population. Tho result would have been, that the rate of mortality wouM have (tppcarcd to have been only 2'8-i, instead of 3'G per cent in 1852. It may be consolatary for Dr. Carpenter t) know, that the Times of 2d February 1807, commenting on the returns of the llegistrar niHi i : II I ! I i:l' i m'i-: Oi> Gen ;il says : " The death ra'-c of the wliolo United Kin<;dom is less than that of Kn^'land and AValcs, u necessary conscquui.ee of the extensive innniiiration from Ireland and Scotland, whether into Enjiland or to other countries, A country continually deserted by its risincj population will liave fewer deaths, by having fewer to die, while the country, or province, or town that receives them will have that extra proportion contiihutinu' to its deaths." It is scarcely possible to believe that any person would h.ivc written such nou- scnse, and that it would have been published as a leader in the Times. The v;riter must have he. n estimoting (he rate of mortalitij at so mer acre, and not according; to the number of persons aniong whom the deaths occured. As i'hi'i,land does not lose so large a proportionate number by emigratiun, as the other divisions of the Kingdom, they are even more liealthy,thau Kngiand,than they seem to be. If the lessened death rate of the United Kingdom arose from the cause assigned, how would the emigration to England, affect the death rate of the United Kingdom, within who>e bounds the people were ? And, why should tiie same result, follow from emigration, whether into England or to other countries ? As immigration lessons the apparent rate of mortality, Mon- treal, should therefore, liave seemed to be more healthy than cities which did not receive so large a proportion of immigrants. The number of births must now be taken into account. Suppose tliat on an island in the St. Lawrence, the number of births is double that on an island in the Thames. Sooner or later all must die. So that, at the end of a generation, twice the number must have died, as certainly as if the whole race had become extinct. Therefore double the nunibcr nmst die every day on the island in the St. Lawrence, because they are born ; not because they are more unhealthy. It foUows therefore, that to ascertain the relative health of the inhabitants of the two islands, allowance must he made for the dijjeroice in hirth-rate, and also for the difference in increase hij immigration. Having done this, the remaining difference in the rate of mortalitij ir.ill express the relative health of the 2)cople. Dr. Carpenter has not observed the operation of these causes ; and till the articles by the writer appeared in the Mitness no journal had noticed and calculated on them when writing of the apparent health c; different populations, ilence it is tliat the I^all Mall Gazette in February ISGU, having quoted the re- turns of the llcLiistrar General, showinir that the deaths for the year had been as follows; lor every 1000 persons living in Birmingham 24, London 2(1, Edinburgh 27, Glasgow 30, Man- chester 112, and Liverpool 42, asks "what that really means is worth consideration even by the most cursory reader. If life is worth anything would it not be well to account" for the difference. This is not the place to enter into an examination of tliC returns, 23 Kingdom is soquciico of (1, M'lictlier lly tlt'serted iig f'cAVcr to s tliem will t is scarcely such nou- I the 'Times, tallti/ at so ions anionir ■ so large a ions of the they seem (lorn arose ' J'^iigland, »>G bounds ilow irom ity, Mon- Itliy than migrants. Suppose of births ' later all i number J become •^y on the because ascertain llowance for the fhis, the ^^'ess the causes ; ttiess no X of the liat the the re- fer the 'ing in , Man- cans is f life is erence. eturns, but that they do not express tlic relative hoaUh of the cities, must be evident from a moment's consideration of what has been stated as to the effect of immigration, of the birth-rate, and of the known rates of increase of the different cities. According to the Census of 18-41, the increase in tliC previous ten years was in Liverpool 39, Glasgow ?A), Manchester 30, Birmingham 20, London 18, and Edinburgh only 3 per cent. "" The birth rate was also very different ; in London it is now less than 3, and in Glasgow it is more tlian 4 per cent. The fact tliat life is governed by hiws, equally as certain as those which govern the atmosphere, is enough to enable us to s;iy tliat Ihe re; urns do not express the truth. What w'ould bv^ thought if the Ikmrd of Trade were to telegraph, that the barometer indicated at Birmimi;ham, 30 inches, London 28, Glasgow 24, and Liverpool 17? When the Meteoro- logist corrects and reduces the indlcftions of the barometer to a temperature of 32^ at sea lecel, lie j^erforms an operatlo'i analogous to vJuit must he done icith the observations of the Registrar General^ to render tliem intelligible and (f a}nj value. WiW the " Pall Medl Gazette," apply the directions given and tell the result? Dr. Carpenter having referred, in his second essay, to the well- known errors in llie Census of Quebec and Montreal, wrote : " It is hard to place any reliance on returns of places of less importance, least of all on country districts." On page 3 : " The returns may be regarded (subject to exceptions) as sufficiently correct to show the comparative mortalities of cities tind adjacent counties, and to com- pare these with the ratios worked out from the preceeding Census." And on pngc 8, " It is probable that these country returns are more accurate t^an those of the city." Why the change ? and how comes it, tliat returns wdiich contain "manitestand gigantic untruths" of the two largest cities of British America are good for anything ? Because a greater number of deaths occur in Britain in winter than in summer, he says, " It would thert-f ore be naturally expected chat in tlie oitreme cold of aLower Canadian winter, the death-rate would rise proportionally, but it is not so." Would it not be natural ♦o inquire, When do the greatest number of deaths occur in North America? Br. Carpenter's expectations are based on the exceptional condition of Britain, and it will show the limited range of his reading and thought on the subject to quote from a popular magazine, *' In Britain, deaths are fewest in the summer quarter or liot season, when the nican temperature is highest, and most numerous in the winter or coldest quarter. In these respects, Britain differs from other countries, where the summer heats increase the mor- tality, and even in this country, when the summer heats are above the average, as in 1857, an increased mortality occurs, especially if the weather be dry, giving rise to severe bowel com- * Conipauiou to the Alman;ic 1844. ^' i-li, il i-i ill ! I 1 H I -J 24 plaints, as dysentery, diarrhccja, cholera, &c." (Chambers' Inform- ation for the Pfioplc. Article; Social Statistics). . On page 18, (sccoad essay) on the authority ot the census, re- (jarding wliicli on x^uje 2, he sci/s, " it is luird to place any re- tiance,^' he states that the deaths in the first year of being are nearly twice "xs great as in Liverpool. In an article which appeared in the Witness reprinted in the Laihj News of 15th September, the num- bers living at certain specified ages in Montreal, London, Glrsgow and Manchester, are compared. It is also stated, on the authority of the register of baptisms, that the number living in Montreal under one year, must have been 808, more than the number enumerated in the Census. Still, the Census gave 151 90 as the uumber living in Montreal under 5 years, against 1074G, or one-half more than the , number living in London, in the same number of inhabitants. Sup- posing the children to have been equally healthy, the deaths in Montreal must have been one-half more than the deaths in London, In another table which appeared in the same papers, the rate of mortality which prevailed in London in the 4 years, ending with 1841, io applied to the numbers living at the specified ages in Montreal, in 1861, and it is thus shown, that the deaths at the London rate w'ould have exceeded the total deaths in Montreal. Dr. Carpenter's third essay is entitled, " On some of the causes of the excessive mortality of young children in the city of Mont- real.'" On pa; ^ 19, of the second essay, there is an extract from the Sanitary Ilr^jort, presented to the Lnpcrial Parliament in 1858, in which it is stated thut " The lives of young children furnish a very sensitive test of sanitary circumstances. That those places where infants are most apt to die, are necessarily the places who^-e survivors arc most apt to be sickly ; and where if they struggle through a scrofulous childhood to realize an abortive puberty, they heget a sicklier brood than themselves. A liigh local mortality of children, must almost necessarily denote a high local prevail nee of those rjiiises which determine a. degeneraaon of race T Then Dr. Carpenter adds, " Those words are prompted by long experience -i-'i'-i^* how awful must be their truth in this city where the rate is the highest yet presented.'" In the report of the Montreal Sanitary Association for 18G7, it is said, " The unhealthy influences which ivill child) en, sicken the adidfs.'^ If the reader can be sur- prised by anything, ho will be by Dr. Carpenter's declaration in the third essay. Having presented what he calls an '• analysis of children's deaths in Montreal for the year 186"^," he says, *' It is evident, thcrefoi-c, tha.t tiie children from 5 yoavs upward arc re- mark; bly heaLhy in this C'ty." What about sickening the adults; the sicklier brood ; and degeneration of race ? Dr. Carpenter seems to have studied the Prophecies of Isaiah, with the same unprofitable result as his study of social statistics; refer to his first essay, and also to table 21 in the third. In the latter he says, that Isaiah 25 ibers' Inform- fie census, rt- olace any re- ing are nearly ipeared in the ber, the num- Jon, Glr.sgow cauthorily of intreal under numerated in iber living in lore than the 'itants. Sup- he dcath.s in sin London. , the rate of ending with ified ai'es in 3aths at the ^lontreal. f the causes ty of Mont- K-t from the tit in 1858, sn furnish a those places tlie places ere if they an abortive L liigii local hif/h local m of race." ed by long y where the e Montreal r influences 3an be sur- laration in analysis of J^s, " It is ird are re- the adults; nter seems nprofitable essay, and lat Isaiah prophecied, that in Montreal, there would be no deaths of children under 12 years of a,^e in the year 18G7. The prophecy does not refer to the present time, for the Word errs not. He should have consulted Job, Vfho asks, " Who can bring a clean thing out of an unclean?" In the articles which appeared in the Wifnt'ss, it is stated, '' That the hlrth-rate is the ccrtaui contrnllivg elemoit of the (Jcath-raie ; That whereevcr the ratio of births to population is tlie highest, there also the mortalifi/ is greatest ; and things hting ajuat, will he inproportion to the hirth-ratn. The following table, constructed from the returns of tlie English Re<];istrar-Gcneral, is stibmitted in proof of proposition. If the registration had been complete, the estimated would have been more nearly in accordance with the actual rates. TABLE IV. Showing the average nninhor of IHiths and doaths, roK'-'^tfMPd in England, to KiO.OUO It'inulcs living, according to the mean ol'ilic 3 youis ending 3uth June, 1841. 5.C55percentof Birthsintho Soutli-Eastcrn Division jipvo 1.809 per cent of Deaths^ tuorefore6.837per cunt of Births in York should have given 2.187 per cent of deaths, &c. DIVISIONS. Metropolitan (London) do do t South Eastern, purely agricul- tural South Western Eastern Welsh South Midland Western Northern Nor^h Midland York North Western* E.VOLAKn. Rate per cent of Births. Actual Rate per cent of Deaths. I'ropor- tionate Bate per cent of Deaths. 5.553 2.33!) 1.776 5.553 2.339 1.612 5.055 1.809 Standard 5.C90 1.799 1.820 5 867 1.981 1.809 5.8tj9 1.9a5 1.877 6.2Sf; 2.0G1 2.011 6.315 2.074 2.020 6.447 2.042 2.0(;2 6.48*3 2.12.^ 2.075 6.837 2.222 2.187 7.095 2.G70 2.270 1.990 6.220 2.113 Relative health of Divisions. Uillerence of Deaths Irom proportioiiutc rate. Under. Above. .563 .727 of Com pari.«on. .112 •058 .050 .054 !048 .035 .400 I .021 .020 .123 This table shows that under an imperfect registration, without regarding the nature of the locality or the prevalence oi" different kinds of disease; an estimate of the numb"r of deaths, based on the standard of a purely aaTicultural division, would err by only 123 on a population of ^100.000 of all England. Excluding the Metropolis and the North Western Division, which may bo called a city, the difference in the nnmljcr of deaths among a population of 100,000 ranges from 21 under, to 112 above the ♦Scarlatina was epidemic in Lancashii.- in 18to, and durinsr the three years caused 26,640 dv'aths iuEnprland; of wh' ii the Northwestern division returned 5205 or nearly one-lifth. 1 his division incli'dos Mandicstor, Liverpool, I'reston, and 15 othor towns, whose population was over 5000, more than half of the popula- tion was living in these towns t ('orrccted for an increase by immigration of 79 per cent in 10 years. Ages of immigrants not taken into account. 213 1 calculated number; and shows an averacje of only 37 above the estimate. It' the South Mastern and North Western ])ivislons were not affected by the migration of the people, and if London gained by immiirration the same proportion of populaiion in the above years, as in the 10 years included ia the Census of 1861; and without taking: into account the irreater value of the lives of the immigrants, (an olemcMit in the calculation which may be bal- anced by the greater number of birtlis among the immigrants) then the number of deaths in London was greater than the number in the South Eastern and North Western Divisions, and all England, by 727, 327 and 004 in each 100, 000 of the population. Dr. Letheby in liis annual report lor the year 1859, for the City of London, says that the death-rate was below the average and only 1 per 1000 higher than all England. But no allowance is made for the low birth-rate and immigration. The above table sliows that the deaths in the jMctropolis were in excess of all Eng'and by G per 1000. If a change has taken place in the seeming rate ol' mortalit}'', it will have been caused, chiefly, by a decline in the birth rate, and an increase of immigrants. If the birth rate gives the death rate for the whole of life, it must give the rate for any part of it. Let us test the proposition, by the facts recorded in Montreal ■where the deaths of children are said to be fearfully excessive. Dr. Letheby, in his report for 1859, says: "The mortality of children in the first year of their age, has been very severe, for it has amounted to nearly one fifth of all the births; in fact, out of 3,200 children born in the year, COS have died. This is somewhat more than the average (3,504 and 574) for the last 10 years. •*** Dark, however, as this picture may seem to be, it is far lighter than it once was, and is brighter than that which is still drawn of the chief towns of ll^ndand* and the large cities of Europe." From the report it appears that the hlrth-rate is onlij about 2*5 per cfut., so that the deaths are few, not because the people are so very healthy, and the city so very clean, but because the births arc few. The writer has not all the figures necessary to make a correct estimate, but the following are sufficient to illustrate the principle. In the Metropolis in the 3 years ending with June, 1841, the birth-rate was 2-906 per cent., to an equal number of males and females. Dr. Letheby shows that the death-rate in the first year, on an average of 10 years, was 10*381 per cent, of the births. The number of births in Montreal is not known, but the baptisms during 14 years were 4*882 per cent. No deduction will be made for the large number of illegitimate children sent to the city (about one-fifth per cent, of the population) loho though baptised are of very little value, in this estimate, compared w it] i legitimate child? en. If in London ♦See lable IV and page 29. 37 above tho tern ])ivisions ind if London ulation in the nsus of 1861 ; of the lives of 3h may be bal- nigrants) then he number in d all England, pulation. Dr. )r the City of rage and only ivaiice is made e table shows 11 England by 3oniing rate of decline in the lole of life, it I in Montreal illy excessive, ^he mortality .s been veryr h of all the ear, G08 have 504 and 574) I picture may brighter than Eind* and the jars that the iaths are few, e city so very las not all the following are opolis in the IS 2-9G6 per Dr. Letheby verage of 10 iber of births [4 years were large number ifth per cent. _ ' little value, If in London 27 2-966 per cent, of births gave 16-381 per cent, of that number of deaths in the 1st year ; 4-882 per cent, of baptisms in Montreal, should give 26-903 per cent, of deaths. Observe that the rate for Montreal is less than it should be, and that the lessened rate of . mortality is applied to the smaller number : the baptisms. The baptisms for the year ending 4Lh July, 1858, (average of 1857 and 1H58) wtn-n 3801 In 18G3-G6, 4 years 211T5 Number of baptisms in 5 years 2497G The deaths In tlie first year at 2G-9G3 per cent on 24976 would be G7v34 According to M. Quetelet, 1 tenth of all tlie children born alive in IJelgiura (town and coun- try) die within one month. Supjiose all the Catholic chiUrcn in Montreal, to have, been bapti- .W,In 1861 the Protestants \vere27-5 per centof the population, but the registration of bajHisms for 11 year?, (1 858-1 8G8) shows that they recorded only^ about 20 jier cent, of the whole number.* The number of Protestant children baptised in above years was, say 4095. The average age at baptism is about 3 months. But add to estimate of deaths only | of the baptisms (,',th of the birtlis), as the number of Protestant children born alive appearing in the list of interred and not in the register of baptisms ^'24 The proportionate number of deaths in Montreal of infants under 12 months, according to tbe Londou rate would be ^358 or 29-460 per cent, on baptisms, representing a birth-rate of 5-334 per cent, of children born alive. The burials of still-born children and infants un- der 1 year, in tho above years were 8208 The total burials were in 1858 (average of 1857 and 1858) 2500 In 18G3-1B0G 15942 Total burials in 5 years 18442 The average number of still-born, interred in the Protestant Cemetery, has been shown to be 7-8GG per cent, on the burials, and this is certainly below the average for the wholo city. Deduct from burials the still-born at above rate 1452 The deaths in Montreal in 5 years, when the total mortality was 03 per cent, above the average of 14 years, was only 27 per cent, on baptisms, or 675G Being less than the proportionate average of the Metropolis by . ' C02 or 120 per annum, therefore it is that the children from 5 years upwards are remaikably healthy. * Se e note page 35. 28 I Tho above yours it will bo noticed include the very unhealthy year 18G4. Dr. Carpenter on page 17, of second essay, says the death rate in the first year of lite, on the average of 12 years was 4341 percent, on the living. In the tiiird essay, page 10, he says the rate in 1867 was 39-00 and on pages 17 and 18, that it was 36-8 per cent. Which is the correct rate ? And how comes it that while in the 12 years, tho deaths under 1 year were 43-41 percent, of the living at that age, and the deaths under 12 years only 2-5 per cent, on all the living; that in 1807, when tha deaths under 1 year, were only 3G'8 per cent., that the deaths under 12 years, should have increased to 2-73 per cent. : wlit-n the children from 5 years upward were remarkably healthy? The English Hegiotrar-Gcnerars returns (Table 4) and the comparison of IMontreal with London, demonstrate that in the ordinary course of natnre, an increase in the birth rate is accompanied by exactly tho same rate of increase in the death rate, so that if the inqurij be limited to tJie first year of life, an increase of 100 per cent, of births will give an increase of 400 per cent, of deaths. The following table is constructed on the rates observed in London. Table V. Table showing the approximate pro[iortionate rate per cent, of deaths in the first year of life, and on the whole population according to the London averages. It is presumed that, to the whole population the births were 2-954, and the deatlis 2-67G per cent. : The increase by immigration was 73-8 per cent, of the birth-rate of increase in the 10 years ending in 1861. "In London in 1861 more than one-half of the resident population were born elsewhere." Census of tlie British Empire by C. A. Coke, page 76. Dirth-rate pev cent. Death-rate per cent, in Ist year of life. Death-rate per cent, to population. 1 2 3 4 6 6 5-545 11 091 lG-636 22-181 27-726 33-272 0-90G 1-811 2-717 3 623 4-528 5-434 This law of nature shows, tiiat the rate of mortality of different places cannot be compared, unless the birth-rate is taken as the standard. Many children die within a few hours of birth, so that no Census ever can exhil it the same number living under one year, as were born during the year. It is customary to compare the number of deaths under live years, and one year, why not under one month, and why not with the number born ? Endless discus- sions have, in consequence, arisen regarding the health of different 29 le very unlicalthj 1 essay, says the e of 12 ye;irs was . p'igo 10, he says 8, that it was 36-8 oiMOsit that while 11 per eent. of the only 2-5 per cent. IS under 1 year. 12 years, should ren from 5 years able 4) and the onstrato tliat in the birth rate is case in the death ? ytar of life, an crease of 400 per ictcd on the rates per cent, of deaths 1 according to the )pulation the births use by immigration 10 years ending in !nt population A. Coke, page werr 76. rate per cent. >opu]ation. to 0-906 1-811 2-7 17 3623 4-52 S 5-434 tality of different I is taken as the of birth, so that iving under one y to compare the wiiy not under Endless discus- 3aUh of different cities; of course, the cities havint: the lowest birth-rate, almost invariably, had the best of the argument. For instance, the liegistrar-General of Scotland, in his report of the eight principal towns for 1859. which was an unusually healthy year, liaving given the number of deaths under five years, says ; " Let Edinburgh and Glasgow be taken as examples. The births in Ghisgow arc in ^proportion to the total population, nearly an exact fourth (he should have said one third) higher than in Edinburgh. Supposing then, that it were even granted, that the infantile deatlis in Glasgow should be a fourth (third) greater inconsequence of this excess, which is a most extravagant ,suj)])osition, this would fail to account for the fact that the infantile deaths there aie almost the double of i the Edinburgh rate, &c., iVe." The birth-rate in Gl-asgov.', was 1410, and in Edinburgh 301 to each 10000 of the population. According to table 5, the deaths in the first year should have been, in Glasgow 93, ai«d in Edinburgh 50, to ench 10,000, or < nearlij donh/e, ir/iic/i the Registrar said it slioidd not he Ti:e total deaths to the 10000 in Edinburgh were 203. If 301 births gave 203 deaths, then 410 births in Glasgow should have given 276*5 deaths. The deaths were 278. so tliat the cities were equally healthy. In the Glas'jow IJcnihl of 9th January, 18G7, there is a letter from the late J-ord Provost, of Glusgow, Mr. John Blackie, Jun., in which "the sacrifice t»F life" is used as an argu- ment ibr entering into certain extensive, and doubtless i.iueh needed improvements iu the citv. A note from the llcuistrar General of England, jMajor George Graham, is quoted, showing that the average rate of mortality in ISlsj and ISGG, was in London 2-545, in Edinburgh 2*773, ami in Glasgow 3-123 per cent. ; but there is nothing said as tc the birth-rate and the proportionate number alive at difFcrent ages. Table 5 shows, that the birth-rate iu London should have been 2'80 per cent. If the births in Edinburgh were 3*01 per cent., then its rate of mortality was above the table rate, by -05 per cent., but this apparent excess is probably more than balanced by the loss by emigration, as the City is not increasing at the rate of births over deaths. According to the City Chamberlain of Glasgow, Mr. West Watson, the birth-rate in the above years was 4*17 per cent. ; and the increa-e by immigra- tion for many years, nearly equal to that gained by natural increase. The death-rate for Glasgow is (table 5) 3-777 V But Glasgow gained by immigration about 14'5 per cent, on its increase by births more than London, which must be deducted from the apparent rate, or say -547 3-230 The rate in Glasgow was 3-123 "i . — J| Glasgow rate of mortality, less 4,han London rate by -107 80 ^^1 i . ■ «| p ' ' ■ t ■ r Mr. Blackic says that, in one oi'thc districts of Glasgow, Blyths- wood, the avcrairo length of life is 50 years ; and in another Anderston, only o8 years. The statistics are not given, but fr'-m the City Chamberlain's reports for the three years 1855-1857, The average birth and dcatii- rates for the districts were respectively 2-742, l'77-i: and 4*1)15, 2-885. The proportionate death-rate for Anderston was therefore 3-170; according to the proportion between births and deaths in Dlythswo()d,so that Anderston was more healthy than Blythswood by -^O-l per cent. In these years the rates for the whole city were, births o-953, deaths 2-8-11 per cent. The total mortality was therefore only -233 over the ratio of Blyths- wood. Mr. Blackie, in writing of the average length of life, has made a mistake which if at variance with the argument would not be worthy of notice, but it is no mere slip, lie thinks that the rate of mortality expresses the average duration of life ; which it would do were the births and deaths equal, bat the average is much less in a community which is increasing rapidly by births. The mean term of life must be about 37 years in Blythswood, 21 in Ander- ston, 2G in Glasgow, and 33 in England, Jt is longest in Blyths- wood simply because that district has the lowest birth-rate. The average length of life must be short, and of course, the rate of mortality must be high, in a rapidly increasing population, but so long as the rates are not relatively higher than the average, the population must be healthy and vigourous. The fallacy of estimating the health of a people by the rate of jnortality ; without comparing it with the birth rate, is clearly shown in Porter 3 Progress of the Nation (Edition, 1851 page 18.) Having stated that the population of the United Kingdom and France had increased from a lessened death-rate, and not from an increase in the birth-rate ; which had in fact declined ; it is said " In France, the births, which in 1817, were in the proportion of 1 in 31, were in 183-1, in the proportion of 1 in 33'6(j ; while the deaths, which, in 1817, were 1 in 39-125; were diminished in 1834 to 1 in 41." The mortality in 1834 should have been only 1 in 42-489 according to the relative proportion of 1817, so that, the death-rate had largely increased. Had the French conti- nued to move in the same direction and at the same ratio, they would have become extinct in a few generations. In the article on " Population " from which the above is an extract, it is argued that because, according to the Bills of Mortality of London ; the deaths under 20 years, in pro- . portion to the total deaths, gradually declined during the sixty years ending in 1821, that therefore ; the people lived longer. According to the Census, the rate of mortality in England, in 1811, 1821 and 1831, was 1 in 54, 1 in 61 and 1 in 59. The evidence 81 Glasgow, Blyths- tuul in another J given, but fV'.m cars 1855-1857, were respectively tonatc death-rate to the proportion itlerston was more these years the i 2841 per cent, le ratio oP Blyths- of life, has made nt would not be inks that the rate ; which it would •age is much less rths. The mean lod, 21 in Ander- ongcst in Blyths- birth-rute. The lurse, tlie rate of population, but the average, the fie by the rate of I rate, is clearly 1, 1851 page 18.) 3d Kingdom and ;ind not from an lined ; it is said le proportion of 53-6{3 ; while the e diminished in 1 have been only )f 1817, so that, French conti- fhe same ratio, encrations. In lie above is an to the Bills years, in pro-. uring the sixty pie lived longer. ngland, in 1811, 9. The evidence given before the Committee of the House of Commons in May, 1830, contirmed these rates. The imperiect registration of the years 1837-1842, gave an average of 1 death in 4G, so that, it is not likely, that the Census returns were correctly made. But the Parish liegisters in England are not more reliable tiiat tlie Clergy returns in Montreal. " The atmual mortality of the county of Middlesex; the largest proportion of whose population belongs to the Metropolis, was, according to the Parish registers" only 1 in 53 in 1840: but the Civil register shows that it was 1 in 42. (Porter's Progress page 27.) Is it surprising, that it has been said that everything is true, but facts and figures ? The conflicting evidence of the Census and Parish registers suggests the question. On what authority is the tbllowing stat< mcnt made? "It has been proved that the population of some of the States of North America has, after making the most am--le deduction on account of immigrants, continued to double for a ci'i tury, in so short a period as twenty, or, at most, live and twenty years,&;c." (MeCuUoen on Population in Smith's Wealth of Nations : Senior's "Political Economy," ^c, &c.) Such a rate of progres- sion would require an increase of 3 per cent, per annum, and a birth-rate, three times greater than that of the United Kingdom. On page 13 of Dr. Carpenter's third cssmv it is stated that, in Boston in 1 8G7 " the yearly rate ol* deaths among 5500 children under 1 year" was 23-3 per cent. If such was the case, then IJoston should have had a birth-rate of 4*22 per cent, else the death-rate of infants was greatly in exeess of the proportionate rate in Montreal and even of that of London. If Boston had so high a birth-rate, exceeding that of (ilas^ow, its character has hitherto been very much misrepresented. In Dr. Carpenter's essays the still-born are included among the deaths, so that no comparison can be made with returns in which the d'/ifhs are calculated on the yiumbcr living. On page 13 it is said •' that of the total deaths in the year only 24 percent, in Boston were under one year, instead of 46 per cent, in Montreal." The statement regarding Montreal is entirely wrong. (See his table iiii page 10, where it is stated that 201 still-born are in. hided.) Deduciing the number of still-born, the deaths are less tiian 42 per cent, of the burials, and only 43-6 j^^'^' cent, of the deaths. In Montreal, the Catholics do not return the number of still- born, and as the rate used in this article is the average of (> years among the Protestant population, there can be no doubt but that, in 1867, when the mortality was above the average, the number of still-born was at least 7*866 per cent, on the burials, or 351 instead Oi 201. If such was the case, then the deaths of infants 82 ll under 1 yoar, in Montro.il, in 1807 wore only 38 per cont. of the burials, instciid of 4(5 por cent, jis rcprosentcil by Dr. C:irpcntcr. The estimated population of IJoston in 1807 was 190000, of whom only 5500 wtivo under 1 year. The proportionate number in Montred, according to the Census, supposinij; it to liave had the same poj)ul;ition as Boston, would be 802!), and if the Census were corrected, according to the register of baptisms, tiie number would be 9780. The deatljs of children in Montreal, in proportion to the total deaths, must therefore be greater, simply because there is a mueli larger proportionate number of children living. The annual mortality of children under 1 year in Boston is given as 'S]'.i per cent. s than in London, so that, Dr. Carpenter, who has said tliat the mortality of young children is frightful, has great di'-i !ulty in finding out the cause. It is not drinking, for he say- • Montreal is not an unusually drunken city." It is not the miik, for " it is probably better and cheaper than in most j']n!!;lish rities" and he .says " There is no rea.°on to tliink that the Montre tl motliers are less cireful than in the country round." But he says, " I'^very thoughtful person who has observed and studied the simplest facts and first principles in sanitary science, must be aware that a sujjident came for all our deaths is to be found in the filth and pollutions which are allowed to remain in our midst, &c. * * * * * * Our sewer and house drain system may be called (with few exceptions) an express contrivance for convey- ing the ordinary air poisons, and the extraordinary infections of small pox, scarlatina, &c., into every part of the city, and espe- I :M,Si-: i 1: .:" u 86 por cent, of tho Dr. C.irpenter. as IDCOOO, of projjortioiiato snpposinjjj it to .^02!), and iftho ){' baptisms, tlic in Montreal, in ijjreutcr, .simply ibor of children l<;r 1 year in id as 17"-4 por lavc made a ed him by the ut with an avcr- y 2174 of hor The liuMires are It population to he average rate lit pojiulation ? :ious 10 years, I, thorontihly in e in 18G7 that, roMi 3;i to 281 ; uld have added ility wliich only ) of ore the fire." aptists are not I under 1 year, Carpenter, who irightf'nl, lias >t drinking, for ty." It is not than in most think that the )untry round." 3 observed and initary science, 3 is to be found tt in our midst, Bystem may be se for convey- y infections of !itj, and espe- cially from the low into the higher levels, lest the rich should selfishly conclude that they were not affc (d by the evils which they allow to scourge the poor." Therefore the deaths from epidemic and infectious (Zymotic) diseases in Montreal must bo extremely numerous, seeing that it has been expressly contrived to carry the cause into every part of tho city, and that, that cause (iloiifi is siijjicioit to (iccount for (til oar denths. In the second essay it is stated, that the deaths from Zymotic disease were in Upper Canada, 10 per cent., in all England 22, in Lower Canada 25, in 7 Counties round Montreal 27, and in ^f(>n^l•ml onlj 255 per cent, of the total deaths. But this is not all, the proportion in Montreal should be very larg.-ly increased, even though it be iiranted that Dr. Carpenter did not mean what he wrote, becauso the city is contrasted with the Country, and the proportionate rate should have increased with the increased mortality ; in the same way that the deaths of children formed a large proportion of tho whole deaths. The story that the deaths of children were exces- sive, seemed to be true, but the story about the drainage has not even the colour. Need it be wondered then, that the Sanitary Association has a few opponents, as the President says it has, when the Citi^zen- are assured that Dr. Carpenter's figures and data cannot be disproved ; and on the authority of their own common sense tliey know that his conclusions are the very opposite of those that should be drawn. In 1807 Dr. Carpenter claimed that the Sanitary Association^ (which was formed in the Spring oflSGG,) saved the lives of 470 children in the previous year, and in 18G9 he increases the claim to 550 on the average of some years belbre and after 1866. In 18G9 a very different account is given. lie says " It should be remembered that in each of the years, beginning with 18GG, the officitd directors and executors of public hygiene have stated that the city was never before in so cleanly a condition, yet the death-rate has risen even above the previous number." '"able 7 shows that the rate of mortality in 18G7 and 1868 was higher than in any year since 1855, (the first embraced in the table) excepting 18G4, and that the avararfe of the two years exceeds the average of the 9 years previous to l8'»4 hy 0'42 ^;er cent. How comes it that the " partial surface cleansing, " which produced " a marvelous benefit" in 18G6, failed in the next two years? The claim on behalf of the Association is taken for granted, but until proved it cannot be allowed. It will now be shown that the operation of ordinary causes accounts for the low death rate in 18G6. From the writer's table I, it appears that in 1863 the baptisms were at the rate of 5*40 per cent., the highest during the 14 years ending with 1868, and fully one half per cent, above the avcraj;;c. Tlic births iti 18G1 wore under tho av»;rago. Scarlatina prevailed during that year, and the number of deaths of children under 12 years, which in ISCi."} was 2535, was 3530 in 1804. In 18G5 the birth-rate was still above the average, and the deaths of children under 12 years, 28t)4, were also far above the average, so that, the year 1800 opened with the ranks of the one, two and three years' old children sadly thinned. During tlie year the baptisms fell to 4*45 per cent., the lowest rate then recorded ; and were 385 less than in 1805, therefore it was, that the total deaths in 1800 were 415 less than in 1805, and the rate of mor- tality oppurcHtly the lowest in fourteen years. Again, in the 10 years 1855-1804 the average birth-rate was 5-07 and the death-rate 3'58 per cent. : therefore the birth-rate of ■"SGO : 4-45, should have given a death-rate of 3*14 per cent. ; the Tiite was 3'll,or only -03 per cent, less than the average of 10 years, I !uch on Dr. Carpenter s estinutted population amounts to only o4 lives. Bat it must also he remembered that, in 1800 the numler of illegitimate children sent to the city was hss than the average, and 1 10 less than in 1805, and as he says that 80-9 />er C€f)it. of such children die within the year, the deaths in 1800 should have been less than in 1805 /rom this cause alone by 99 The deaths were less than the average of 1 ^) years by 34 So that, the deaths ml 800 exceeded the average number of ^ the 10 years by "•* The above will suffice, until the claim is made out in proper form. Presuming that the Clergymen who have not sent in their returns for 1808, ha^e registered as rany bafUsms as in 1807, then the three years 1800-1808, sV^av an a o age birth-rate of 4'47 per cent, and therefore the rate .f mortality, according to the average of 10 years, 1855-1804, should have been ?>'\Q per cent. ; it was 3-52, orO-'i!>Q per cent, higher, lohich, dv. the population estimated by Dr. hirpenter, amounts to 420 death. per annum,above the average of the 10 years, ending with 1864. An examination of the writer's table I, shows a steady decline in the birth-rate from 5-07 per cent, during the 10 years beginning with 1855, to4-47, in the 3 years ending with 1808, accompanied with an actual increase in the rate of mortality from 3-10 to 3" 52 per cent. ; although there is an apparent decline from 3 58 to 3-52 per cent. If the "population has continued to increase at the estimated ratio, the lessened birth rate must have been compensated by an increased rate of immigration, in that case, the increased rate of mortality is even greater than it seems. Supposing the addition to the population by immigration to have been very much larger than Cl ii h f( o i t £ ■ 86 Cttlculttted, and that thus a number of deaths were recorded while the increased number of Itnmi^'rants has not been added to the popu- laticn, this cause would not account for the increased mortality, for it has been shown, that the addition of 2U000 immij^rants over the usual number ; of an averajjjc town population ; 20 years of a;:^c, would add only KU) (leuths in that year. It is very likely true, that the inhabitants of the suburbs, outside of the city limits, arc now usinj^ the city burial h Oct. We draw the attention ot the Saniiary Association and Dr. O.rjioiiter, to an article which ap])oared jesterday oii the toiirtli page of the Dnilii At hvs', and whicli refutes, in the nio.st crushing manner, several of the statements advanced by that learned statician. — xVoure«(t Monde, 'Ziith Vet. We lind in one of the lale numbers of the Dfii/i/ Xews, an important anonymous article, but which is, nevertheless, carefully digested, ujjon the subject of the sanitary condition ol the city. It is a rehitation of the last report ol Dr. Carpenter, whose lij^ures and statistics it shows to be false by means of oflical proof. Wo do not wish to mix < ur>elves up with t'lis discussion, furtiier than to j)i»iiit out to Dr. Carpenter tiie necessity there is for him to explain himself, and to advise the Corporation to do nothing before the (ptestion shall have been settled.— /,'(>;y/jv;, 28^/( Oct. Vital Statistics.— The deductions from the mortality returns of the city of Montreal drawn by Dr. Carpenter, have led to a somewhat, important contribution to the discussion ol this important subject. The writerisa.fi'ntieman who from his knowledge of tigures and the attention he has given for some years to the conside- ration of the laws which regulate the grouth of the population is entitled to be heard with respect and his staiements carefully e.xamined. ***<*#* jjg shows that .Montreal, instead of being the " i)!ngue sj)ot" described l)y Dr. Carpen- ter, in reality enjoys fuUy more than an average exemption from inlant mortality. * * * Other tables show, according to tin; writer's tigures, that Montreal is more healthy than hondon and Gla.«gow, ami muoli more healthy than Manches- ter. Should these statements be correct, and from the very cuisory examination we have yet been able to make of them, it seems dillicultto disprove them, it is oltlie utmost i.nportance they should be known, so as to remove the charge always brought against Montreal in this respect. — JJcra/d, 28//< Oclobcr. TiiK Sanitaiiy Association. — *■ * * It is (juite impossible to convev even a faint idea ol the complete destruction of the whole of the arguments of Dr. Car- penter. The castle in the air has vaiiisliod. I'he Saniiary Association, like a class of beggars who extort money by exhibiting their sores, deli;;hted in representing Montreal as a polluted t^ueen, swollen with drink and debauchery, and covered withall manner of tilth. Hut " Experience" has torn away the rag.s with whieli Dr. Carpenter had clothed her, and she steps forth glowing with health, young and ■' Beautiful as Uuth among the corn, Or Kebekab by the stoney well." Star, I'Stk October. The writer of the paper signed " Experience," which wo published some days ago showed liow grossly wrong were theiigures < n which Dr. Carpenter relied iu those papers of his, which attracted very much attention, and which described our fair city as an exceedingly murderous place tin- infants— one of the most destructive places, in fact, under the sun. It is satisfactory to lind tliat it is not so bad as repre- sented, in fact, not worse but bettir, than h " ' .%% many other places.— G'a.re«e, 8//t 2\ov.