key: cord-1032455-9ppumxd6
authors: Orzechowska, M.; Bednarek, A. K.
title: Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic in Poland according to government regulations and people behavior
date: 2020-05-29
journal: nan
DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.26.20112458
sha: 36a7c1b03df0d3055d24e9465fa763b2f1dd840e
doc_id: 1032455
cord_uid: 9ppumxd6

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is a worldwide pandemic problem that started in China in December 2019 and within a few months spread to all continents. Very high infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 virus and substantial disease severity caused medical care capacity shortage in many countries. Therefore, real-time epidemic forecasting of the COVID-19 is useful to plan public health strategies like country lockdown and healthcare reorganization. We used extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Poland under different scenarios of the lockdown and lockdown removal. We used time-series data of SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 4 to May 22 2020. Our forecast includes the impact of a timeline of preventive measures introduced in Poland. Using eSIR algorithm we estimated the basic reproductive number and a total number of infections under different epidemic trend scenarios. Using eSIR modeling we estimated that the basic reproductive number in Poland concerning different scenarios of the lockdown removal is in a range of 3.91-4.79. The lowest predicted number of infected cases would be 263 900 (0 - 1 734 200, 95%CI) if the strict protective measures were maintained until the end of September. However, under different scenarios of precautions removal, a total number of infected cases may exceed one million within the next year. Relatively early introduction of strong precautions in Poland significantly slowed down epidemic spread in Poland in comparison with other European countries like Italy or Spain. However, early removal of protective measures may result in a significant increase in infection. Data shows that the number of new COVID-19 cases in Poland beyond May 18 is linear what could be a prognosis of a duration of the epidemic exceeding 300 days.

SARS-CoV-2 virus and substantial disease severity caused medical care capacity shortage in many 11 countries. Therefore, real-time epidemic forecasting of the COVID-19 is useful to plan public health 12 strategies like country lockdown and healthcare reorganization. 13 We used extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model to predict the epidemic trend of 14 COVID-19 in Poland under different scenarios of the lockdown and lockdown removal. We is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 29, 2020. CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. introduced preventions and its predicted withdrawal. As may be seen in Figure 3E and Table 1 the pandemic [13] . Then, it was 118 319 confirmed cases and 4292 deaths [14] . Although most cases 168 show no symptoms, the very high rate of infections in several countries resulted in a shortage of 169 healthcare capacity due to a small number of beds equipped with respirators and oxygen as well as 170 high morbidity among medical personnel [15] . Therefore many governments decided to introduce is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 29, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.26.20112458 doi: medRxiv preprint This is a provisional file, not the final typeset article 6 For ecast of COVID-19 in Poland observed in the Silesia region due to coronavirus spread among miners [9] . This shows that some Conflict of Inter est 230 The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial 231 relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 29, 2020. 

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