key: cord-1004456-m6y8p3zd
authors: Menezes, P. d. L.; Garner, D. M.; Valenti, V. E.
title: BRAZIL IS PROJECTED TO BE THE NEXT GLOBAL COVID-19 PANDEMIC EPICENTER
date: 2020-05-05
journal: nan
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.28.20083675
sha: f1b966944f58d8234586ac85e88aba9a17b8d894
doc_id: 1004456
cord_uid: m6y8p3zd

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection, which is related in the most recent pandemic situation, significantly affecting health and economic systems. In this study we assessed the death rate associated to COVID-19 in Brazil and the United States of America (USA) to estimate the probability of Brazil becoming the next pandemic epicenter. We equated data between Brazil and USA obtained through the Worldometer website (www.worldometer.info). Epidemic curves from Brazil and USA were associated and regression analysis was undertaken to predict the Brazilian death rate regarding COVID-19 in June. In view of data from April 9th 2020, death rates in Brazil follow a similar exponential increase to USA (r=0.999; p<0.001), estimating 64,310 deaths by June 9th 2020. In brief, our results demonstrated that Brazil follows an analogous progression of COVID-19 deaths cases when compared to USA, signifying that Brazil could be the next global epicenter of COVID-19. We highlight public strategies to decrease the COVID-19 outbreak.

which is related in the most recent pandemic situation, significantly affecting health and 23 economic systems. In this study we assessed the death rate associated to COVID-19 in 24 Brazil and the United States of America (USA) to estimate the probability of Brazil 25 becoming the next pandemic epicenter. We equated data between Brazil and USA 26 obtained through the Worldometer website (www.worldometer.info). Epidemic curves 27 from Brazil and USA were associated and regression analysis was undertaken to predict 28 the Brazilian death rate regarding COVID-19 in June. In view of data from April 9 th 29 2020, death rates in Brazil follow a similar exponential increase to USA (r=0.999; 30 p<0.001), estimating 64,310 deaths by June 9 th 2020. In brief, our results demonstrated 31 that Brazil follows an analogous progression of COVID-19 deaths cases when compared 32 to USA, signifying that Brazil could be the next global epicenter of COVID-19. We 33 highlight public strategies to decrease the COVID-19 outbreak. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 5, 2020. into a global public health concern as it has rapidly extended worldwide. The 41 transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), 42 initiating COVID-19, has led to this urgent pandemic status (Angelos et al, 2020) . 43 This disease initially appeared in Wuhan, China, which became the first epicenter 44 (Nature, 2020). Next, when the cases were partially controlled in China, Europe became 45 affected and was an added epicenter of COVID-19 (Nature, 2020). At present, the 46 United States of America (USA) is the current pandemic epicenter with in excess of 47 700,000 COVID-19 cases, consistent with the Worldometer website 48 (www.worldometer.info). 49 In this scenario, we understand that Brazil has the potential for a considerable 50 increase in deaths related to COVID-19 (www.worldometer.info). We comprehend that 51 Brazil has the likelihood to be the next pandemic epicenter of the disease. So, in this 52 report, we aim to evaluate deaths associated to COVID-19 in Brazil and USA, so as to 53 authenticate any likenesses between the countries. 54 55

The mortality data for COVID-19, which occurred in Brazil and the USA, was 57 obtained from the Worldometer website (www.worldometer.info). the Cartesian x-axis, and the adjustment of the number of deaths for each 10,000,000 68 inhabitants, which allowed the procurement of data on the Cartesian y-axis. 69 To relate the mortality results between the two countries, the Bivariate correlation 70 test was enforced and the degree of linear relationship was considered by the Spearman 71 coefficient. 72 Formerly, there were some regressions to discover the best mathematical model 73 which would allow the representation of the mortality estimation curve for COVID-19 74 in Brazil and USA. Whilst searching for the mathematical model that best fits the 75 mortality estimation curves, the following models were evaluated: Linear, Logarithmic, 76 Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Composite, S, Growth, Exponential and Logistic. For this 77 estimate, a significance of alpha, (α) less than 0.01 (p <0.01, <1%) and R 2 > 0.95 was 78 adopted. Furthermore, the one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA1) test was applied. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 5, 2020. In Brazil, the mathematical models attempted to estimate the mortality curve in 89 absolute values, from the 5 th to the 30 th death (April 17 th 2020) and the models that came 90 nearest were the cubic and the quadratic, as illustrated in Figure 2 . 91 Nevertheless, as illustrated in Table 1 , the cubic model fits best, R 2 = 0.998. 92 Consequently, the cubic model, thus far, best fits an approximation of the growth 93 curve of mortality owing to COVID-19 in Brazil and is in the following manner: Where t is the number of days from the 5 th death.

With regards this mathematical model, it was demonstrated in Figure 3 that the 100 estimation of total deaths for Brazil, assuming no behavioral changes amongst the 101 population for the 50 th day after the 5 th death is 9,312 deaths by COVID-19. The main concern regarding this mathematical forecast is to enable data to permit 110 the Brazilian government to format policies to protect its own population. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 5, 2020. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 5, 2020. 

Emergency Colorectal Surgery in a COVID-19 Pandemic Epicenter

Stop the Wuhan virus

Europe now centre of pandemic, says WHO

SP keeps notification only for severe cases of coronavirus and says it follows Brazilian 148

 137 The authors declare absence of financial and non-financial interests.138 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 5, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083675 doi: medRxiv preprint 5 5 139 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 5, 2020. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 5, 2020. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 5, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083675 doi: medRxiv preprint