key: cord-0990430-zx9imcqk
authors: Naveen, B.R.; Gurtoo, Anjula
title: Public transport strategy and epidemic prevention framework in the Context of Covid-19
date: 2021-12-06
journal: Transp Policy (Oxf)
DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.12.005
sha: 67482ff5bded3be57f075e0ccfd95b7c98f9d0f6
doc_id: 990430
cord_uid: zx9imcqk

As countries across the world modify their travel in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, the first casualty becomes the public transport sector. Transport authorities across the world have reported about 95% reduction in users during peak COVID-19, decrease of fare box revenues and additional costs for disinfecting and implementing physical distancing measures. The public transport companies in India face a larger crisis as nearly 85% people travelling intercity use public road transport in normal times. In this paper we drawpassenger clusters based on their travel dynamics and develop two frameworks, namely, passenger driven transportation strategy framework and epidemic prevention strategy framework to deal with the COVID-19 induced travel changes. The frameworks use three tenets of mobility, namely, agility, integrated movement, and public based partnership. The strategies aim to enable the transport enterprises to open new windows of travel and efficiencies for the passengers rather than restricting access and choices. However, security remains fundamental to making these new and innovative service changes possible.

India ranks third in terms of motor vehicles with average fleet held at 140497, average fleet operated at 127814, passenger kms performed at 5244265 lakhs and 125 vehicles available per 100,000 inhabitants (ILO, 2015) . Intercity public transport represents around 10% of the total trips, occupying about 45% of global passenger kilometers (Bak et al., 2012; Hayashi et al., 2014) . However, the novel corona virus has brought a significant change in the travel pattern and behaviour. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, travel demand has fallen globally and changed the patterns as well (Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative (TUMI), 2020). A longer-term impact on transportation behaviorbecomes inevitable (Verma et al., 2020) . Public transport has been hard-hit since the outbreak, with dramatic reductions in ridership. The impact has resulted in the decrease of fare box revenues (in some cities the reduction in patronage surpasses 90%) and brought along additional costs for disinfecting and implementing physical distancing measures (UITPa, 2020; Verma et al., 2020) . Major transport authorities around the world have J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f reported up to a 95% reduction in users which not only shows the magnitude of the problem we face today but puts the future of these businesses and services in uncertainty (AlexKreetzer, 2020).

The crisisshows significant severity for the Indian public transport companies as 85% of people travel intercity by road in normal times (Kaushik, 2015) . Around 477.5 billion pkm of service gets provided by the state-run transport buses in the nonurban sector, with about 37.6% households in urban India and 47% of households in rural India being dependent on public transport such as bus (India Census, 2011) . Despite the risk of coronavirus, public transport stays the only commuting choice for many people, especially lower-income citizens (PrassenjitLahiri, 2020) .A need to bring in coordinated efforts in terms of tools and methods from policy makers, public transport service providers and passengers to mitigate risk of virus spread in the current This article explores possible transport strategies and epidemic prevention strategy induced by COVID-19, drawing insights from passenger typesbased on travel demographics. A sample survey of 605 passengers draws out service travel demographics using the K-means clustering method. The emerging three clusters are used to develop two frameworks, namely, public transport strategy and epidemic preventionframework.

The large dependence on bus transport in India motivates the study to explore new strategies and segmentation. First, the lock down and restrictions have created significant impacts on individual psychology, community, global business and the general economics order (Barman, 2020) . The return to 'normality' in public transport systems, hence, needs to be explored. The new normal requires newer policies. The new normal has implications for the decisions by relevant authorities and their capacity to manage the change (Verma et al, 2020;  UITPb, 2020). For example, contamination issues will be a key factor in people using public transport (AlexKreetzer, 2020). States must find a way to make the transit safe and favorable for the people who have no choice but to use them.

Second, the restrictions on public transport may lead to passenger commute by overcrowding in smaller vehicles like cars, maxi cabs, goods tempos as well, and requires preventive measures (Transport Department, GOK, 2020; Verma et al., 2020) .Intercity buses are J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f more environmentally friendly, with passenger miles per gallon being twice more than the intercity rail and four time higher than domestic air carriers (Woldeamanuel, 2012) . To meet one kilometre of passenger travel demand, a car consumes five times higher energy than a 52-seater bus (Namboodiri, 2007) . People resort to use private cars for transportation due to inadequate public transport network (Badami and Haider, 2007; Irtema et al., 2018; Sam et al., 2018) . A return to the personal car will create an impossibly large number of trips, with the associated congestion and pollution (Qrius, 2020) .

Thirdly, the biggest challenge Post COVID-19requires active promotion of public transport usage. Group travel has shrunk, and leisure travel has dwindled as well, due to safety fears. With high uncertainty to continue for some time, travel behavioral changes are a clear post covid-19 response (Qrius, 2020) .Furthermore,measures taken on public transport services such as restrictions should be customized based on the intensity and phase of the outbreak (Tirachine and Cats, 2020).For operations and revenues to reach its previous demand and supply pattern, a socio-cultural change in the public transport itself becomes imperative.

All these concerns form the trigger to understand passenger behaviorand frame appropriate framework to keep transport services live during and post COVID-19.The paper contributes to the literature as follows: First, the paper explores the various challenges posed by different types of passengers to the COVID outbreak and the strategies to tackle the pandemic effectively. The study hasidentified different customer segments, their travel behavior and their perceptions, and framedappropriate transport response systems. The frameworks help efficient and effective redesigning of services with the restrictive capacity.Second, we develop a comprehensive and dynamic epidemic prevention strategy framework at three levels namely red, yellow and green modes as per the infection prevalence in the regions. The levels ensure availability of public transport services for the ongoing COVID crisis and future health pandemics from the perspective of transport operators and passengers.These strategies are built from the three core tenets of mobility, namely, agility (collection and organization of information

COVID-19 pandemic has forced us to adapt to the "new normal" lifestyle (Albani, 2020; Pantuliano, 2020; Park, 2020; Tzannatos, 2020) . Public transport forms an essential service to provide mobility and must respond to the emergencies in the times of pandemics (Zhou et al., 2020) .As countries across the world adopted "stay at home" approach to reduce the spread of the (Qrius, 2020) . The transport organizations have incurred huge financial losses worldwide and will take atleast six to eight months to get back to the previous demand and supply patterns. For instance, Karnataka transport undertakings alone have incurred a loss of INR 16 billion due to the lockdown (hindustantimes, 17 May, 2020). Significantly, public transport systems are predominantly used by people with lower incomes and making these services available to them becomes an urgent imperative and a matter of social equity (Tirachine and Cats, 2020).

Public transport worldwide has adopted a number of epidemic prevention measures, such as reduced bus frequency, decreased passengers capacity, passengers' wearing masks and gloves,reduction in number of touch points, providing personal protective equipment (PPE) to staff, dispersal of passengers inside the cars, regular deep cleaning and disinfection of public transport vehicles, workplaces, stations and assets coming into contact by users include ticketing devices, poles and seats, installing disinfectant dispensers, to actively respond to the COVID-19 epidemic (Zhou et al., 2020; UITPa, 2020; Verma et al., 2020).

According to UITPa (2020), public transport systems forms a high-risk environment as high number of people are put into a confined space with limited ventilation, no access or control to identify potentially sick persons, and numerous common surfaces to touch (ticket machines, handrails, door knobs, etc.). COVID-19 contagion risk increases with passenger occupancy level 

According to World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS) COVID-19

Task Force, policy decisions to address COVID-19 and future public health pandemics lack of 

We conducted a) literature review of transport service quality, safety, cleanliness and service provision attributes for COVID19 b) sample case study is conducted to understand the categories of passengers and their service level perceptions, and c) content analysis to identify the practices and methods adopted to address covid19 in passenger transportation.

The literature review was conducted between August 2019 and December 2020. An initial search of literature started with relevant key words. Some examples of key search terms used during extensive literature were service quality, intercity bus transport, COVID-19 and transport strategies, safety measures during COVID-19. After screening of titles, abstracts, introductions, conclusions, and type of publications, we selected papers focusing on transport safety measures J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f during covid pandemic and their impact on service quality. After in-depth analysis we divided the literature into three broad themes: service quality of intercity bus transport, covid-19 impact on transport operations and important transport attributes during covid-19 to ensure its operation, and case studies which have adopted pandemic prevention and transport strategies.

Perceptions of service quality for intercity bus transport are captured from around 605 passengers traveling between the city of Bangalore to other cities/towns/villages like Mysore, Tumkur, Mangalore and Hubli. As per K-means clustering, passengers are clustered into three groups based on their perception of service quality factors. Cluster 1 has mean values of service quality factors more than 3 and hence named as high-ranking service quality passengers (HSQP).

The cluster 2 has mean values less than 3 for most of the service quality factors and hence named as low-ranking service quality passengers (LSQP). The cluster 3 has mean values around 3 for most of the service quality factors and hence named as moderate-ranking service quality passengers (MSQP). Table 1 gives the distribution of demographics in each cluster. The cluster characteristics with respect to demographic and transport attributes are as follows:

 The HSQP cluster shows a relatively older population, with significantly more uneducated and highly educated passengers, thereby falling into two travel extremes, namely, using non-AC normal bus or AC sleeper bus.

 The LSQP cluster, has a younger population, with higher concentration of undergraduate and post graduate passengers (nearly 70% students) and higher level of unemployed (nearly 25%).

 The MSQP cluster stands out with no uneducated person in the group. The cluster also has higher number of students in the group and relatively more women than the other 2 groups.However, the group also stands put for having many middle-income passengers. 

Based on the passenger and travel type, the two frameworks are discussed This study aims to develop two frameworks to effectively manage the transport service during pandemic situation. This include, transportation strategy framework that helps to understand the different passenger types, their service preferences, challenges faced and respective strategies to effectively manage the service. The epidemic prevention framework helps to address the challenges arising from covid19 systematically to ensure safer and agile response to travel.

Using the emerging cluster dynamics and extensive use of literature, we develop a multilevel epidemic prevention strategy and a multi-dimension passenger driven public transport strategy. First, we detail three initiatives to meet the COVID-19 challenge. Second, we align the three initiatives to the passenger cluster types for specific pandemic response strategies. Figure 2 details the various passenger driven transportation strategies Third, we develop a transportation framework for the different passenger types. Figure 3 details the three-level epidemic prevention strategy.

Evidence from other empirical studies indicates most of the factors studies above being 

The cluster analysis brought forth three types of travel challenges for the transport companies, namely, passenger demanding money's worth and good behavior from the crew, being older in age, travel long distance, being employed, with both low and high income profile;

passengers demanding comfort and ease of travel, belonging to the middle income group, educated, travel long distance, and young in age; and passengers demanding on time service and reliable information, young, travelling short distance and during the day. Transportation strategy framework helps to understand the different passenger types, their service preferences, challenges faced and respective strategies to effectively manage the service. And finally, what processes need to be re-engineered or infrastructure upgraded and bettermanaged in order to deliver the right experience for the customers?However, COVID-19 based security remains fundamental to making these new and innovative service changes possible. Periphery functions are the auxiliary services offered in the transportation strategy and these services varies as per the passenger types. This includes breaks during the journey such as toilet or refreshment and frequency of breaks depends on the passenger type. Bus stops are separated or isolated from the stops of other camps to ensure safety. Health response teams are formed to identify the critical health issues and respond to immediately. Furthermore, safety teams are formed to monitor the safety standards implementation at the bus stations and buses. The passenger driven transport strategy is complimented with the three-level epidemic prevention strategy to create service framework based on the passenger type and their risk level.

The transport strategy is based on the tenets of agility, integrated movement, and public based partnership. Specific travel needs and passenger types are merged as 'spots'. For example, SPOT 1: for older age passengers, who travel long distance and are employed. The group has a high chance of getting infected. The group travels for work hence frequently and are safety conscious. These include both, high income, and low-income people.

SPOT 2: SPOT 2 can be further sub divided into 'family group' and 'unrelated group' and is for the young travelers, who travel infrequently, and have a high chance of being carriers.

The space should be kept distinctly separate from the SPOT 1 and separate fleet identified for the group to ensure safe travel. SPOT 3: for the younger traveler, travelling for short distance, frequently, for a formal activity, namely, work, education, or any other service. This group also has high chance of beingcarriers. The space will require separate crowd management staff to ensure proper following of procedures, due to nature of the group, namely, being frequent and short distance traveler. Transport staff gets most exposed to the contamination areas posing the risk of getting infected or even becoming the carriers of virus. Therefore, ensuring their safety by strictly following the hygiene protocols with routine health checkups, cleaning and screening, becomes critical. Creating separate transparent shield at the driver side protects driver and passengers as well. Under the pandemic situation driver and conductor role can be merged since passengers and their seating is already fixed. Staff's risk exposal gets reduced and ensures smooth transport services at the same time. Basic response parameters should be mandatory irrespective of modes or challenge types before proceeding further. give better understanding about the passengers, their types, associated challenges and respective strategies to manage the pandemic situation efficiently especially for the intercity bus transport.

The framework, thus, helps to frame suitable strategies, action plans to ensure public transport service availability even during the health pandemic. The Transport Policy needs contact and service strategies separately based on the passenger types.

Contact strategies involve contactless travel, on route information to authorities, social distancing. Contactless travel should be promoted as much as possible such as online ticket purchase, e-tickets and minimum touch points in the bus. Status information must be communicated with authorities while on route through technological interfaces such as mobile apps and websites for any likely cases and change of routes to be intimated. Information should be communicated frequently with authorities in red mode because of its high sensitivity to risk.

In the yellow mode, intermittent information communication keeps the authorities updated on the important health or safety issues. Only required information communication gets transmitted in the green mode, including about uncertain events. Social distancing should be followed in the yellow and green modes at both sub-stations and buses. At the sub-station, passengers are made to sit at alternate seats and maintaining considerable distance while boarding bus between the passengers. Boarded passengers should be allowed to sit on alternate seat with considerable J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f distance between them. Social distancing minimizes the virus spread among the passengers due to contact.

Policy recommendations for service involve routes, areas status, recording passenger details, stops, waiting times, sanitization of waiting area and bus. Traveling near sealed routes must be avoided to contain the risk of catching virus. Bus and waiting area sanitization help in minimizing the risk of virus spread among the users who use these services. Offering contactless sanitizer dispenser and wash basins with soap dispensers at the platform level could be effective.

If possible, wet sanitizing wipes must be provided to every traveler with a suggestion to use them before touching anything or gripping anything especially to high risky passengers. Bus and waiting area sanitization should be frequent in red mode, moderate in yellow mode and occasional in green mode due to risk and exposure levels.

Public transport moves a lot of people, to the same destination at the same time. The relevance of public transport for a developing country like India becomes high where we witness low personal transport, low income, inadequate transport infrastructure, inadequate usage and higher imbalance in modal split of transportation (Namboodiri, 2007 ; PrassenjitLahiri, 06 June, 2020). Around 37.6% households in urban India and 47% of households in rural India are dependent on public transport such as bus, since they do not own a vehicle (India Census, 2011).

Further, in intercity bus industry of India, around 477.5 billion pkm of service gets provided by state transport undertakings (STUs) indicating the importance of intercity bus services in connecting Indian villages and cities. Despite the risk of COVID, public transport being the only choice will remain crucial for enabling people, especially lower-income citizens to commute (PrassenjitLahiri, 06 June 2020). The large dependence on bus transport in India motivates our study and we explore passengers travel behavior and their preferences before the pandemic outbreak and how likely their preferences change due to the novel corona outbreak.

The proposed transport strategy and epidemic prevention strategy frameworks helps public transport organizations to devise appropriate response plan to effectively manage COVID like health pandemics to ensure services are provided even during these times.Since public transport system can form one of the transmission channels of infection, the study finding helps J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f government and companies to minimize the virus spread through adopting the strategies framed here.

The one size fits all strategy, evidently, cannot be applied. The study has, therefore, identified the different segments of customers, their travel behavior and perception and framed respective response mechanisms. The study can help governments to provide instructions to transport organizations to frame contingency policies tailored for different segments of passengers. With help of the study finding, the public transport can be made efficient and effective by redesigning services even with the restrictive capacity.

These frameworks help government to ensure public transport services to public especially who do not have alternate choice of transport, low income group and essential workers. Specific and relevant service parameters can be focused during the pandemic situations based on passenger perceptions instead of considering all the parameters.The framework helps governments to take policy decisions transport service based on scientifically sound methodologies instead of making contingency adjustments in an ad hoc manner. The frameworks proposed in the study can be applicable to all situations such as during COVID, post-COVID, future health pandemics and normal situation because of its nature of agility and integrated technology movement.

However, the study has some limitations. The study is mainly based on empirical evidence in pre-COVID and from literature in COVID and post-COVID situation. Therefore, the theoretical framework proposed must be tested empirically. Further the data for pre-COVID is mainly from southern India and require to be tested in other regions as well. This study mainly focuses on intercity bus transport and can be further customized to apply for urban transport.

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