key: cord-0978467-9zxbzt26
authors: Akaishi, Tetsuya
title: Could the Biogeographic Background Affect the Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Variants?
date: 2022-04-27
journal: J Gen Intern Med
DOI: 10.1007/s11606-022-07632-z
sha: bcc62cd750eaef1ff030ae1c4c4a1e738edf82a8
doc_id: 978467
cord_uid: 9zxbzt26

nan

B y the end of 2021, there were 41 potentially important SARS-CoV-2 variant strains. 1 Among these, 12 lineages (29.3%) were thought to emerge from two countries, 8 (19.5%) from the UK and 4 (9.8%) from South Africa. Based on epidemiologic data released from the Johns Hopkins University, 2 COVID-19 cases in these two countries totalled approximately 13 million, accounting for 5.0% (3.9% for the UK and 1.1% for South Africa) of cases worldwide. This may be partially explained by the disproportionate testing and shared genome sequences from these countries. The numbers of the total reported COVID-19 cases and shared SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences, based on the data released from GISAID, 3 are shown in Fig. 1 , together with the numbers of detected potentially consequential variants in each of the countries. The UK was among the leaders for testing and sharing the virus genome sequences throughout the pandemic accounting for 23.6% of the total shared genome sequences worldwide. While shared genome sequences from South Africa accounted for less than 1%, 4 potentially consequential variants were detected there. While the USA accounted for 31.3% of shared genome sequences and 18.8% of COVID-19 cases worldwide, the USA accounted for only 9.8% of the 41 variant lineages. India, a country with diverse biogeography, had the second largest number (13.9%) of total COVID-19 cases, and 14.6% of the consequential variant lineages, but only accounted for 1.4% of the shared genome sequences worldwide.

If we suppose that the occurrence of potentially consequential variant strains emerges randomly, the numbers of first detected variant strains in each country should be proportional to the number of accumulated cases occurring in each country. That this did not happen suggests that the occurrence of potentially consequential SARS-CoV-2 variant lineages may not be completely random among the total reported COVID-19 cases or among cases with shared SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences. Other unknown biogeographical factors may exist that may influence the development of consequential variants.

Further studies that explore potential biogeographical or other unknown factors may be warranted.

World Health Organization. Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants

Corona virus resource center. COVID-19 Dashboard

Sequences shared via GISAID since 10