key: cord-0978375-hs9vv2gh
authors: Bharti, N.; Lambert, B.; Exten, C.; Faust, C.; Ferrari, M.; Robinson, A.
title: Large university with high COVID-19 incidence did not increase risk to non-student population
date: 2021-04-29
journal: nan
DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.27.21255023
sha: 9c37317d12bd12e061f74f99b9c17d757c80ffb6
doc_id: 978375
cord_uid: hs9vv2gh

Large US colleges and universities that re-opened campuses in the fall of 2020 and the spring of 2021 experienced high per capita rates of COVID-19. Returns to campus were controversial because they posed a risk to the surrounding communities. A large university in Pennsylvania that returned to in-person instruction in the fall of 2020 and spring of 2021 reported high incidence of COVID-19 among students. However, the co-located non-student resident population in the county experienced fewer COVID-19 cases per capita than reported in neighboring counties. Activity patterns from mobile devices indicate that the non-student resident population near the university restricted their movements during the pandemic more than residents of neighboring counties. Preventing cases in student and non-student populations requires different, specifically targeted strategies.

Reserved space. Do not place any text in this section. Include the mandatory author checklist or your manuscript will be returned. Use continuous line numbering in your manuscript. 5 We also used publicly available data from PA DOH data and PSU to calculate COVID-19 deaths 85 per 100,000 for Centre County, the six neighboring counties, and PSU UP. 86 We acquired county-level data on median household income, population size, and college 87 enrollment status from the 2019 United Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) 5- 88 year data (https://www.census.gov/data/developers/data-sets/acs-5year.html) for all seven 89 previously mentioned counties in central PA (10). 90 We divide the census block groups (CBGs) of Centre County into two categories. We first 91 designated 'student-dominated CBGs' as CBGs where >50% of ACS responses report 92 enrollment as undergraduate students. We consider data from the 19 student-dominated CBGs in 93 Centre County to be representative of the student population in Centre County. These 19 CBGs 94 are either on or adjacent to PSU's UP campus and occupy exactly 6 census tracts. Then, the 95 remaining 25 county census tracts were designated as non-student dominated areas.

SafeGraph (11) receives geolocation data from anonymized mobile devices collected from 97 numerous applications. We analyzed SafeGraph's mobile device-derived daily visit counts to 98 points of interest (POI), which are fixed locations, such as businesses or attractions. SafeGraph 99 data provide daily counts for total numbers of visits by mobile devices while using at least one 100 application that provides geolocation data to SafeGraph. A "visit" indicates that the device 101 entered the building or spatial perimeter designated as a POI. We acquired daily visit counts for 102 POIs in the seven previously mentioned counties in central PA from January 1, 2019 forward 103 (Table 1 ) and grouped counts into student-dominated CBGs and non-student dominated CBGs 104 within Centre County. From January 1, 2020 forward, we used SafeGraph data on the median 105 daily minutes that devices spent outside of their home in each county and the student-and non-106 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted April 29, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101 https://doi.org/10. /2021 greater SafeGraph representation (6%) than any other areas in this study (Table 1, Figure 2A ).

SafeGraph representation was not biased by median household income at the county level 138 (Pearson correlation = -0.20).

In 2019, pre-pandemic SafeGraph data showed different daily visit patterns for the student- CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted April 29, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10. 1101 /2021 Reserved space. Do not place any text in this section. Include the mandatory author checklist or your manuscript will be returned. Use continuous line numbering in your manuscript. 8 ( Figure 2C ). All large university gatherings, intercollegiate athletics, and mid-semester breaks 153 were cancelled. Visit counts across all of Centre County in 2020 were reduced to 56% of their (14). Centre County residents may have also disproportionately adopted suggested 

When we separate the student cases the university reported from the non-student residents of the 298 county, Centre County (red dots show possible range of total cases) falls below the number of 299 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted April 29, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101 https://doi.org/10. /2021 Reserved space. Do not place any text in this section. Include the mandatory author checklist or your manuscript will be returned. Use continuous line numbering in your manuscript. 

. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted April 29, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101 https://doi.org/10. /2021 Reserved space. Do not place any text in this section. Include the mandatory author checklist or your manuscript will be returned. Use continuous line numbering in your manuscript. 16 310 Figure S1 : Rolling seven day mean of total daily visits to points of interest per county and 311 student-and non-student dominated CBGs within Centre County. Areas shaded in grey 312 correspond to university breaks, arrows correspond to football games and a ticketed spring 313 scrimmage.

. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)

The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted April 29, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101 https://doi.org/10. /2021 

Do not place any text in this section. Include the mandatory author checklist or your manuscript will be returned. Use continuous line numbering in your manuscript