key: cord-0962275-e55vmgjr
authors: Grech, Victor
title: COVID-19 admissions calculators: General population and paediatric cohort
date: 2020-04-10
journal: Early Hum Dev
DOI: 10.1016/j.earlhumdev.2020.105043
sha: 034592dd949ad58ee6eaf4f71124fd3098f5b85c
doc_id: 962275
cord_uid: e55vmgjr

Abstract The world is in the grip of pandemic COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2). Children appear to be only mildly affected but for those countries that are still preparing for their first wave of infections, it is salutary to have some estimates with which to plan for eventual contingencies. These assessments would include acute hospital admission requirements, intensive care admissions and deaths per given population. It is also useful to have an estimate of how many paediatric admissions to expect per given population. However it is only very recently that paediatric epidemiological data has become available. This paper will create an interactive spreadsheet model to estimate population and paediatric admissions for a given population, with the author's country, Malta, as a worked example for both.

The world is in the grip of pandemic COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2). Children appear to be only mildly affected but for those countries that are still preparing for their first wave of infections, it is salutary to have some estimates with which to plan for eventual contingencies. These assessments would include acute hospital admission requirements, intensive care admissions and deaths per given population. It is also useful to have an estimate of how many paediatric admissions to expect per given population. However it is only very recently that paediatric epidemiological data has become available. This paper will create an interactive spreadsheet model to estimate population and paediatric admissions for a given population. It is also naturally difficult to estimate rates as it is likely that a significant and unknown proportion of the population becomes infected but remains asymptomatic. 

The World Health Organisation (based on data from China) has estimated that:

 14% of infected cases are severe and require hospitalisation.

 5% of infected cases are very severe and require intensive care admission, mostly for ventilation.

 4% of infected die. (5) Paediatric estimates are underpinned by two papers that are also based on Chinese data.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

Coronaviruses: an overview of their replication and pathogenesis

SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children

Epidemiological characteristics of 2143 pediatric patients with 2019 coronavirus disease in China

World Health Organisation

The COVID-19 epidemic

COVID-19 and Italy: what next?

4,920 Total deaths It must be reiterated that these are best guesses and estimates that preclude the discovery of effective treatment and/or vaccination. 27 It must be reiterated that these are best guesses and estimates that preclude the discovery of