key: cord-0911666-8pm28fmd authors: Almaktar, Mohamed; Elbreki, A. M.; Shaaban, Mohamed title: Revitalizing Operational Reliability of the Electrical Energy System in Libya: Feasibility Analysis of Solar Generation in Local Communities date: 2020-08-14 journal: Journal of Cleaner Production DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123647 sha: 5912a681819881a0182e90e10db34dd579e5221e doc_id: 911666 cord_uid: 8pm28fmd Abstract The political upheaval and the civil war in Libya had a painful toll on the operational reliability of the electric energy supply system. With frequent power cuts and crumbling infrastructure, mainly due to the damage inflicted upon several power plants and grid assets as well as the lack of maintenance, many Libyans are left without electricity for several hours a day. As the country has a staggeringly immense potential of solar energy, it is inevitable to exploit such potential, to avert system-wide blackouts. This paper investigates the use of small-scale PV systems in local communities as non-wires alternative (NWA), offering excess energy exchange within local/neighboring microgrids (MGs) for reliable electric power supply. Different combinations of PV/storage/diesel distributed generations (DGs), with grid-interface options, were applied on a case study of a typical dwelling in the Eastern Libyan city of Benghazi. Technical and financial feasibility assessments were carried out to contrast between various supply combinations. Sensitivity analysis of the PV-grid system was also conducted using Net Present Value (NPV) and the payback time indicators to determine the impacts of Feed-in Tariff (FiT) rates, financial incentives, electricity tariff, and inflation rate on the economic viability of the PV grid system. Results show that the PV-grid system has a promising potential under reasonable set of varying system parameters. On top of its social and environmental-friendly advantages, the PV-battery system is found to be more economical when adopted as a standalone NWA solution as compared to the diesel generator option, even at the lowest diesel price. The PV-grid system does not only provide a short-term remedy to the rolling blackouts in Libya but also enhances system operational reliability by providing a NWA to rundown or shattered grid infrastructure, thus bolstering energy provision in residential neighborhoods. Libya is blessed with abundant gas and oil resources. It has large quantities of indigenous oil supplies, 45 which is currently the largest in Africa and the ninth-largest globally; with 48 B barrels of proven crude 46 oil reserves (Bindra et al., 2015) . The proven natural gas reserves stand at 158 B cubic feet (EIA, 2019a). Inasmuch as the Libyan political economy was dominated by oil, not surprisingly, the electricity supply 48 industry in the petro-state depends entirely on conventional power generation using fossil fuels. Generally 49 speaking, the electrical energy supply and provision enterprise performed reasonably well in Libya, before 50 2011, with the installed generation capacity superseding load demand with an adequate margin. Following the Arab spring protests in 2011, Libya had a full-fledged revolt against its reigning political 52 regime; leading eventually to its downfall. However, the country has descended into civil war since then, 53 with frequent infighting using heavy weaponry. The continuation of such crisis until this very day poses 54 significant challenges to the power grid infrastructure. 55 Libya has suffered severe electricity shortages and power cuts in the past few years. This is basically 56 due to the damage and destruction incurred, during the war, as well as sabotage and vandalism on some of 57 its power plants and transmission network assets; particularly in eastern and western Libya. The situation 58 was further aggravated by the lack of cash and foreign companies to undertake maintenance and complete 59 suspended projects. With actual electricity generation below load demand, grid system operators were left 60 with no option but to implement rolling blackouts to avoid system-wide collapse. Although some 61 homeowners, businesses, and health centers have tended towards using mobile diesel generators, many 62 Libyans are still left out with no access to grid electricity supply few hours a day. The Libyan economy and energy sector are still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. In temporary, yet uneconomic and environmentally unfriendly, solution to a chronic problem. The Libyan historical load profile data show that the maximum power occurs during the summer 138 season and the residential sector represents the highest share in electrical energy demand followed by the 139 commercial and industrial sectors, as presented in Fig. 2 do not have the luxury, anymore, of diversifying energy resources to introduce RE in the generation mix. In fact, GECOL is currently struggling to tackle power outages using rotational load shedding, also known 254 as rolling blackouts, with the aim of implementing an equitable and fair load shedding policy to all 255 customers throughout the day. The misery of load shedding was further intensified very recently amid the 256 quarantine caused by COVID-19 pandemic, due to the substantial increase in the residential load demand. In the absence of a unified government, collapsing infrastructure and worsening security, it is imprudent 258 to count on government initiatives to provide solutions, which can be ultimately available via damaged or 259 vulnerable grid of traditional "wires". It is, therefore, imperative for local communities in Libya to tap the 260 vast RE potential the country has and develop modular power supply via distributed renewable generation 261 as a NWA connected directly to load centers. there is no good reason to rely on GECOL for energy provision merely because it is mandated to do so. The blunt fact is the incumbent transmission provider, GECOL, cannot meet the reliability needs and 302 service obligations. As the country is already ravaged by civil war with damaged critical system infrastructure, an "ad-hoc" 304 option to provide a regional solution could be the only practical alternative in the immediate and short- FiT is defined as a policy initiative that encourages investment in RE by providing green power 312 producers long-run assured purchase contracts to sell their electricity to the grid at a premium rate. Among The scheme aims to support investment in RE by setting a target of 4,300 MW in the first regulatory load profile is depicted in Fig. 7 . As can be seen, the peak energy demand occurs between 03:00 pm and 381 10:00 pm with an average peak of 2.4 kW. According to (2) (Almaktar, 2015) , the NWA PV system capacity which satisfies the house demand is 408 found to be 5 kW, i.e., 20 panels of 250 W PV module. (2) 410 where PSH is the Peak Sun Hour in kWh/m 2 /day; for Benghazi it is 5.78. Losses of the designed PV 411 system must be considered to ensure that the system will feed the load effectively. The system efficiency The merit of the NWA 5 kW PV system is to provide an independent sustainable energy source to 416 residential areas that is not reliant on intermittent power supply provided by GECOL; due to its damaged 417 T&D infrastructure. The excess energy can also be exchanged in the local community to fulfill another 418 end user energy need within a MG context. If the local distribution networks are upgraded, and political 419 stability is largely restored, the excess clean energy from the PV systems can be sold back to the grid 420 under the FiT policy. The specification and cost breakdown for the different components used in this study are listed in Table 422 4. HOMER is utilized to investigate the feasibility of different hybrid energy systems to fulfil the energy On the other hand, NPV is a standard method for using the time value of money to appraise long-term Where i is the nominal interest rate. NPV should be as large as possible and always positive so that the 443 generated benefits are greater than costs. The initial cost (S) of the GCPV (without battery storage) system can be expressed as: S=C gen + C inv + C inst -C incn = C system -C incn (4) 446 where C gen is the cost of the NWA GCPV generator, C inv is the cost of the inverter. C inst is the cost of 447 installation including supporting structures, wiring, protective elements, etc. C system is referred to as system It is assumed that no limitation is imposed for the amount of energy generated by the NWA fed into the 463 utility grid i.e., all the produced energy can be sold which is, therefore, the most favorable situation for the 464 PV installer. Thus, E PVaut = 0. The annual operation and maintenance cost C O&M of the system installed was 465 taken as 2% of the initial cost S (Rahman, 2012) . Also, C ins and C Fin are assumed to be zero in the sense 466 that there is no insurance or financing costs for the PV system installed. Furthermore, C O&M increases with 467 inflation (g); therefore, equation (5) becomes; Energy prices are highly subsidized in Libya, in which fuel prices are among the lowest in the world. J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f The investigation is focused on the analysis of several scenarios of battery amperage capacity, diesel 497 generator fuel price, electricity tariff, and inflation rate. In terms of energy sale, the study initially assumes 498 that the NWA system receives no incentive for injecting excess energy into the grid as this is the real case Considering the grid electricity price equals to 1.4 $¢/kWh (current tariff), inflation rate at 12%, diesel 506 fuel price in its lowest (11 $¢/L), and $0 for the price of energy sold back to the grid, it is found that the 507 optimum configuration is for the PV-grid without battery storage, referring to Fig. 11 . This scenario offers 508 the least NPC and COE with $7,172 and 2.51 $¢/kWh respectively, as depicted in Fig. 12 showing the 509 electrical simulation results of the system. As can be noticed, although the grid energy price is at the 510 lowest tariff, yet the PV system covers 66% of the load demand. This system can yield an excess annual 511 energy of 4,187 kWh that can later be sold to end users in the local communities 1 . FiT of 7 $¢/kWh, at an inflation rate of 12%, the PV installation project is not feasible even when the 592 project receives incentives up to 60% of capital cost, as shown in Table 6 . With such an inflation level, in order for the investment to be feasible, the FiT must be higher than 7 596 $¢/kWh. To investigate the impact of using unsubsidized electricity tariff rate on the financial viability of the 605 PV NWA system, the tariff rate and FiT are increased. As depicted in Table 8 , the PV project is 606 financially feasible, even with an unsubsidized tariff rate of 10 $¢/kWh, FiT as twice as the tariff rate, 607 inflation of 12%, and 0% incentives. However, at an inflation rate of 28%, the 2017 rate in Libya, the sell-608 back price of electricity at 20 $¢/kWh is not profitable even with up to 60% incentives of the capital cost. 609 The results detailed in Table 9 , reiterates that at the highest inflation level (28%) the investment on PV 622 technology in residential installations is not feasible even when the incentives to the PV projects reaches 623 60% of the capital cost. Finally, Table 10 analyzes the NPV and payback period of the 5 kW solar home at 624 28% inflation rate when the electricity is unsubsidized, with FiT increased to 70 $¢/kWh (~1.0 LD/kWh). The results acquired emphasize that at 28% inflation level the investment on PV technology is untenable 626 even when the FiT is about seven times the base electricity price. (1.4 $¢/kWh), inflation rate at 12%, current subsidized diesel fuel price (11 $¢/L), the most economic 650 standalone NWA option goes to 5 kW-2 kWh PV-battery system yielding to 2.91 $¢/kWh of electricity 651 cost. Whereas the incorporation of energy storage system (ESS) in the PV system increases the cost of 652 energy (COE) and the net present value (NPV), utilizing renewable PV systems is more attractive 653 financially than using the diesel generation option. Furthermore, the PV options come with security of 654 supply, cleaner environmental footprint, and a greater societal benefit. The latter can be achieved not only 655 from the continuous clean energy supply, but also by maintaining people's comfort via avoiding the noise 656 accompanying gas-guzzling diesel generators in densely-populated townships in eastern and western 657 Libya. For the NWA grid interfaced system, the most economic option is found to be PV-grid with 66% 658 renewable fraction even at $0 for the sell-back price; this offers a COE and NPV of 2.51 $¢/kWh and 659 $7,172 respectively. At a higher diesel price, the PV-battery option demonstrates its viability as the 660 optimal standalone NWA solution. Libya. While this study is primarily dedicated to the energy supply system in Libya, the arguments presented 673 herein can be extended to countries ravaged by political instability, insurgency and regional conflicts in 674 the Middle East such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen. 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This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-680 for-profit sectors. J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f ☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f