key: cord-0902957-rgu04nsj authors: Yin, Ru-Yi; Ye, Yun-Chun; Newman, Chris; Buesching, Christina D.; Macdonald, David W.; Luo, Yi; Zhou, Zhao-Min title: China's online parrot trade: Generation length and body mass determine sales volume via price date: 2020-04-09 journal: Glob Ecol Conserv DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01047 sha: 7783afacc718f78ebe955e71f78f788fe1ee0358 doc_id: 902957 cord_uid: rgu04nsj The wildlife trade threatens global biodiversity and animal welfare, where parrots are among the taxa most frequently traded, supplying exotic pets and captive breeders worldwide. Using phylogenetic path analysis, we examine how biological factors interact with price to influence online protected parrot trade volumes in China, using transactions recorded for 46 species (n = 5,862 individuals). Trade was greatest in smaller, faster breeding species that commanded a lower price. This price effect followed the economic law of demand, with Relatively Inelastic Demand (−0.758), outweighing indicators of ‘quality’ such as body coloration, and conservation status. We identify two areas of concern: those larger, slower-breeding, rarer species, even though sold at lower numbers, may be at conservation risk if harvested from the wild. In contrast, the sheer numbers (over 90% of the individuals were under median generation length, body mass and/or price) and ready availability of smaller and more common species comprises a substantial overall animal welfare issue, given that the capture, importation, or captive breeding of many parrot species in China is illegal and thus unregulated. Our investigation highlights the importance of properly understanding the internal relations among drivers of wildlife trade to inform appropriate management. Wildlife trade threatens global biodiversity. Parrots are at particular threat 30 because they are desirable as pets (Gonzalez, 2003; Drews, 2001; Pires, 2012) . Wild 31 parrot populations have declined over recent decades, with nearly 30% of 355 species 32 currently threatened with extinction (Donald et. al, 2010) . Although among the most 33 threatened bird orders in the world (Juniper and Parr, 1998) , detailed studies on the 34 (un-)sustainability of parrot harvesting and trading are lacking (Beissinger and Bucher, 35 1992; Gilardi and James, 2006) , as are studies evaluating parrot welfare when held or 36 bred in captivity, given that they are comparably intelligent and long-lived birds 37 (Meehan and Mench, 2006; Engebretson, 2006) , prone to traumatic stress (Yenkosky 38 et al., 2010) . 39 In Mexico, Europe and the USA, certain parrot species command a premium 40 price, linked to striking coloration or rarity. This leads to a disproportionate number of 41 these most expensive species being poached from the wild (Tella and Hiraldo, 2014) . 42 However, price creates a balance between supply and demand; when desirable goods 43 are expensive, trade volumes are typically lower, causing sales volumes to 44 self-regulate (Harris et al., 2015) . For example, the price of pangolin products is 45 increasing, seemingly due to desirability driving ever-greater consumer demand in 46 China and Vietnam, with supply restricted by regulation and risk of prosecution 47 (Challender et al., 2015) . Consumer sensitivity to price (price elasticity of demand, 48 PED) is quantified as the relative percentage change in quantities purchased in 49 response to a one percent change in price (Walelign et al., 2019) . PED further divides 50 into Perfectly Elastic Demand (∞), Perfectly Inelastic Demand (0), Relatively Elastic 51 Demand (> 1), Relatively Inelastic Demand (< 1), and Unitary Elasticity Demand (= 52 1). Phylogenetic path analyses enable a more expansive analysis of quality-quantity 53 wildlife trade dynamics (Hardenberg and Gonzalez-Voyer, 2013; Gonzalez-Voyer and 54 von Hardenberg, 2014) . This method can account for species non-independence due 55 to shared ancestry, and describe dependencies within sets of variables. Here we investigate the economics of online parrot sales in China, in relation to 57 factors driving demand for these unconventional pets (Bush et al., 2014) . This is 58 3 despite all recorded sales likely being in contravention of China's Wild Animal 59 Conservation Law (WACL) and CITES. We studied fixed-price classified 60 transactions involving parrots over Taobao.com (a subsidiary of the Alibaba group; 61 analogous to 'Ebay') that provides the largest domestic consumer to consumer (C2C) 62 online platform in Mainland China. We then tested for possible correlations between 63 sale volume per species across surveys (the dependent variable) as predicted by price, 64 and indices relating to conservation status, extent of occurrence, morphological traits 65 and breeding potential. Note: Su et al (2015) found that song complexity was not a 66 desirable trait motivating parrot sales. Based on pre-specified candidate path models, 67 we used phylogenetic confirmatory path analysis to model how co-dependent factors 68 influence sales volumes. We use these findings to comment on ways to improve parrot 69 trade management. Encyclopedia of Life websites, respectively. Data for relative brain size were available for 41 species (89%) and data for the 127 other variables were available for all 46 species. All data on sales volume, price, EOO, 128 7 L*a*b*, body mass, clutch size and generation length were log(x+1) transformed to 129 meet normal distribution assumptions. For phylogenetic analyses we used the tree for 130 birds proposed by Jetz et al. (2012) , selecting a single random tree (Fig. S1 ) from the 131 tree pool at http://birdtree.org, after we tested if the results vary with the tree selected 132 and found the results consistent with each other. Sales volume and price are not evolved traits, but interact with inherent species 135 traits, where shared ancestry could cause price/sales volume per species to vary 136 non-independently (c.f. Fritz and Purvis, 2010) . To address this, we constructed 137 phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS) with a specified covariance matrix. Volume of species sold (response variable) was modeled against all 15 univariate 139 predictor variables, using the pgls function in the R-package caper (Orme et al., 2015) . PGLS models produced a phylogenetic scaling parameter λ, ranging from 0 141 (phylogenetic independence) to 1 (complete phylogenetic dependence) (Freckleton et 142 al., 2002) . 143 We then used phylogenetic path analysis (Hardenberg and Gonzalez-Voyer, 2013) (Burnham and Anderson, 2002) . Support was taken ΔCICc ≤ 2 and the smallest 155 CICc value, with C statistic P > 0.05 indicated the best candidate model. All analyses 156 were conducted using R version 3.6.0 (R Core Team, 2019). (Table S1 ). Sales volume exceeded two for 29 species (n = 5,853). Most Table S2 ). In contrast, other biological factors had no significant 180 effect on sales volume (P > 0.05) (Table S2 ). There was also a positive interaction of 181 price with generation length (β = 2.525, t = 4.426, P < 0.001, λ = 0.734 1, < 0.001 ) and 182 body mass (β = 1.158, t = 7.802, P < 0.001, λ = 0.706 0.014, < 0.001 ), where generation 183 length and body mass covaried (β =2.723, t =11.173, P < 0.001, λ < 0.001 1, 0.003 ). (Table S3) . (Table S2) . Arrow width depicts value of the 196 standardized slope coefficient (higher values -wider arrows), with the value of the standardized slope coefficients given. Gray arrows indicate 197 relationships that were included in all models. 198 199 12 As one of the most popular bird groups in the international pet trade (Bush et al., 2014; 201 Li and Jiang, 2014), even three decades ago the global trade in parrot species was 202 estimated at $1.4 billion annually (Thomsen and Brautigam, 1991) and has likely 203 continued to increase, although more recent studies are lacking. The effect of price on sales volume we observed supports the law of demand In contrast, the longer generation length of the larger species would make them 228 less profitable to breed and raise in captivity, potentially making them more 229 vulnerable to poaching from the wild; although higher prices may obviate these 230 captive husbandry costs (Su et al., 2015) . This positive relationship between 231 generation length and body mass is a generalized phenomenon among birds 232 (Blueweiss et al., 1978) , as well as mammals (Gaillard et al., 2005) , because nearly all 233 13 biological rates increase to an exponent of body mass (Gillooly et al., 2002) . (Zhang et al., 2015) , causing psittacosis, or 'parrot fever' in 247 humans (Eidson, 2005; Smith et al., 2005) . Aside from conservation implications, we must also be alert and respectful to the 257 welfare of these birds. The low price and relatively easy husbandry of parrots makes 258 them popular as companion animals, especially for children (Engebretson, 2006) . But 259 parrots are relatively intelligent birds (Pepperberg, 2006) , and are prone to 260 behavioural disorders, such as self-mutilation (Jenkins, 2001) if given insufficient 261 stimulation or being neglected (Davis, 1991; Speer, 2014; Gaskins and Bergman, 262 2011). Some of these traded species that are threatened in their native ranges also 264 represent an invasive risk, if they escape to the wild (Cassey et al., 2004) . For 265 example, release of captive yellow-crested cockatoos (Cacatua sulphurea) in Hong 266 Kong since the 1960s, has resulted in damage to the few remaining large trees used by 267 14 other resident species, and these cockatoos also compete with native birds for nesting 268 resources such as tree cavities (Leven and Corlett, 2004) . For those species of parrot for which sales are illegal in China, logically, so is 270 captive breeding. Consequently this is done covertly in unregulated facilities not 271 subject to inspection, likely leading to poor welfare conditions. For example, Psittacine Beak and Feather Disease (PBFD) is a potentially deadly disease among 273 parrots, cockatoos and lorikeets (non-zoonotic). This has been widely detected among 274 wild, wild-caught captive and seized parrots across countries (Peters et al., 2014; Fogell 275 et al., 2018) and can quickly spread through poorly kept parrot breeding facilities 276 (Rahaus and Wolff, 2003) . It seems probable that those more expensive parrot species, 277 representing a considerable financial investment for breeders or consumers, may 278 receive better welfare as a result of their value, where companion animals with a 279 higher monetary value are often better cared for (Vermeulen and Odendaal, 1993) ; 280 however, the cumulative compromised welfare of smaller, less valuable species may 281 be considerable (Pires 2012) . companion birds and fostering an interest that may transcend into concern for the 289 conservation of these fascinating species in the wild. 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Controlling for phylogenetic dependence, a 1% increase in price was associated with a 0.758% reduction in sales volume Larger, slower-breeding, rarer species, even though sold at lower numbers, may be at conservation risk if harvested from the wild Smaller and more common species comprises a substantial overall animal welfare issue