key: cord-0886456-o2j3g6nd
authors: Gomez-Zavaglia, A.; Mejuto, J. C.; Simal-Gandara, J.
title: Mitigation of emerging implications of climate change on food production systems
date: 2020-04-23
journal: Food Res Int
DOI: 10.1016/j.foodres.2020.109256
sha: e4d892595079d912a63ec52d77f4b0d447fde174
doc_id: 886456
cord_uid: o2j3g6nd

Abstract Crops, livestock and seafood are major contributors to global economy. Agriculture and fisheries are especially dependent on climate. Thus, elevated temperatures and carbon dioxide levels can have large impacts on appropriate nutrient levels, soil moisture, water availability and various other critical performance conditions. Changes in drought and flood frequency and severity can pose severe challenges to farmers and threaten food safety. In addition, increasingly warmer water temperatures are likely to shift the habitat ranges of many fish and shellfish species, ultimately disrupting ecosystems. In general, climate change will probably have negative implications for farming, animal husbandry and fishing. The effects of climate change must be taken into account as a key aspect along with other evolving factors with a potential impact on agricultural production, such as changes in agricultural practices and technology; all of them with a serious impact on food availability and price. This review is intended to provide critical and timely information on climate change and its implications in the food production/consumption system, paying special attention to the available mitigation strategies.

Food production is highly sensitive to the weather, that is the main focus of this manuscript, together with the search for remediation strategies in all key areas, such as food production and quality yields, irrigation water requirements, crops and livestock technological changes, loss of arable lands by erosion, fish production needs, and all kind of emerging risks with effects on food security and nutrition quality. In this introduction, we will briefly summarize all these issues, which will be treated in depth in the following sections.

A year with an anomalous rainfall regime, sudden temperature changes, or extreme weather events, have harmful effects on performance in agricultural and livestock activities.

Although modern technologies can alleviate these adverse effects on yields, we cannot forget the strong impact of recent droughts on world cereal production (FAO, 2011) and its great potential vulnerability. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have advanced triggering breakthroughs in aiding climate analysis (Schneider et al 2017; Reichstein et al., 2019) .

Artificial intelligence (AI) can then build on discovered climate connections to provide enhanced warnings of approaching weather features, including extreme events (Huntingford et al., 2019) .

Climate change and global warming are already having comparable effects on the efficiency in food production as well as on its quality worldwide (Easterling et al., 2007; FAO, 2019b ). These effects have been tempered by the increase in world food production achieved in recent decades. Unfortunately, differentiating the effects of global warming and climate change on the rest of the factors that affect the world agricultural and livestock production is not easy, but studies have shown that increases in corn and wheat production since 1980 would be a 5% higher in the absence of the effects of climate change. If the rest of the factors were invariant, the high levels of carbon dioxide (the main driver of global warming) would be possible to increase the production of rice, soy, wheat and other crops. We must bear in mind that the climate change will significantly affect the duration and quality of the growing season.

Nor should we forget the damage to crops that will increase dramatically due to droughts, floods or forest fires that will become increasingly frequent and intense phenomena.

The latest IPCC report (IPCC, 2019) predicted modification in the areas suitable for food production, freshwater, as well as biodiversity. Human use affects more than 70% of the global, ice-free land surface. The yields of rain-fed agriculture would fall around 50% in all of Africa from 2020 with an average increase in temperature around 1-3 °C. It is difficult to predict food and feed production behaviour, especially on a local scale. For example, impacts on pollinators (Kehrberger & Holzschuh, 2019) , such as bees, are already under great pressure from habitat loss and intensive agriculture. The same is about the effects of global warming on pests and diseases in crops (Zayan, 2019) or livestock (Kebede et al., 2018) .

Fisheries provide proteins supply for at least one-half the world's population. Currently, there is already a significant stress due to overexploitation and the adverse effects of pollution in seas and inland waters. That is why this food source runs a special risk (FAO, 2018a,b) .

Warmer surface waters in oceans and inland waters, together with rising sea levels and ice melting, are expected to adverse effect upon many fish species. Although some marine species are already migrating to high latitudes; others, such as Arctic and freshwater species, have nowhere to go and are concerned with extinction. In addition, oceans are absorbing increasing amounts of CO2 that yields acidifying effects with important impacts upon marine life.

In any case, the previous threats can affect food security and, more specifically, the availability at a reasonable price of food for a global population of 8 billion people (Hertel, 2016) . A 2011 Foresight report (Government Office for Science, 2011) concluded that, in the short term, climate change is not an important factor in the equation as compared to the increase in global requirements of food expected for the next decade (United Nations, 2017) . As the standard of living increases, the population tends to demand greater amounts of food (especially meat), what suggests a future of increasingly volatile food prices. The Human Development report (2019) concluded that international policy is key to redress the shock to livelihoods of rural people in poor countries, and the spikes in food prices by drops in global yields.

Finally, we must underline that food production is a substantial contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and a source of environmental degradation; hence, it can magnify and accelerate climate change. Farming contributes about 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions -roughly as much as transport. More pessimistic assessments claim that the overall contribution of food 6 production to atmospheric emissions can reach 30%. Therefore, effectively restricting the longterms effects will require making food production more resistant to the climate and the achievement of significantly lower carbon footprints. Countries and their citizens suffer unequally the threat of food supply. Some countries, which lose arable land and fisheries, lack the resources to maintain food security at a reasonable cost. Others are more vulnerable to unfavourable international trade agreements. Finally, regional conflicts disrupt food distribution.

Crop and livestock productivity may diminish by elevated temperatures, drought-related stress or increased CO2 concentrations. Their effects on crops and livestock may arise suddenly or gradually. These events can be faced before, during and after the disaster. Risk, threat and vulnerability are three inter-connected concepts . Risk is a combined measure of probability and degree of harm of a territory and its inhabitants being affected by natural hazards. It follows equation:

Threat is the probability of a natural hazard to occur to a certain extent, and with a certain intensity and duration. The human factor has no impact on threat. Finally, vulnerability is associated to the social impact of an adverse phenomenon and must thus, be properly managed in order to avoid or reduce the unwanted effects of natural events and their associated risks. For this reason, risk is usually assessed for prevention(to prevent hazards in order to alleviate, 7 evaporative cooling or mechanical ventilation; using rotational grazing to minimize damage to range and pasture; optimizing forage stock management and reducing herd size during drought periods (Osei-Amponsah et al., 2019) . Water can be managed by installing more efficient irrigation systems or increasing the efficiency of existing ones; storing water in ponds and tanks;

rationalizing water use to avoid wastage; and facilitating livestock access to water (United States Government Accountability Office, 2019). In any case, the most effective way of reducing vulnerability and its associated risks is by improving access to information (e.g., with early warning systems), fostering R&D activities, and developing risk management, regional outreach, extension and education programs for farmers.

Heat stress causes vast economic losses in both crops and livestock. Alleviating its effects requires sustaining animal productivity in hot environments through physical alteration of the environment, nutritional measures and the development of breeds that are more tolerant to heat stress. These strategies can be used individually or in combination for better results (Collier et al., 2006) .

Days that the temperature-humidity index (THI) exceeds comfortable levels are steadily increasing in the American and European continents. The growing number of heads of cattle that are raised, as well as the intensification of production, presents as one of its greatest challenges the problems presented by heat stress of animals, which has serious negative effects on the health and biological function of this cattle altering its reproductive performance. In addition, it can induce feelings of hunger and thirst among cows. This issue has raised increasing concern because milk production and composition are being used as indicators for reduced welfare (Hu et al., 2016) .

In the C4 Rice Project, researchers were working together to apply innovative scientific approaches to the development of high yielding rice varieties for smallholder farmers. Phase III had an emphasis on integrated 'systems' and 'synthetic' approaches to plant biology. Phase III ran from 2015-2019 and was co-ordinated by Jane Langdale at the University of Oxford.

Advances in Phase III were sufficient to secure funding for a fourth phase that aims to develop a prototype for C4 metabolism (Vlad et al., 2019) .

The impact of irrigation on the environment is felt mainly in the quantities of available crop soil and water, and in their quality. The effects arise mainly from changes in hydrological conditions caused by irrigation schemes. A number of world regions currently rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture and require abundant irrigation, which has increased cultivation costs and raised conflicts over access to water. This situation has promoted unwanted environmental problems arising from quantity and quality changes in soil and water (Thiery et al., 2020; Sloat et al., 2020; Dai et al., 2020) . A few studies have addressed the effects of global warming on agricultural water use including changes in net irrigation, water demand and water uptake by crops. This is especially important because agriculture is the greatest user of fresh water for irrigation and accounts for 70% of all water used globally each year (Woznicki et al., 2015) .

Climate projections have been used to estimate water demand for future irrigation (Gondim et al., 2012; Bakken et al., 2016) , which are estimated to increase between 40 and 250 % depending on the crop at the end of this century. The increased requirements have been ascribed to reduce water availability in the growing seasons, evapotranspiration and changes in crop phenology (Woznicki et al., 2015; Sloat et al., 2020; Dai et al., 2020) . This causes great uncertainty about the predictions in the literature (Chung and Nkomozepi, 2012). 9 lower magnitudes than non-irrigated conditions, with increase in precipitation. Irrigated land exhibited considerably increased robustness, and even more effective mitigation of the climate impacts. By combining information on climate changes with soil-and crop-specific evapotranspiration models, they predicted the potential amounts of irrigation water needed to prevent crop failures up to the year 2070. In a scenario of increasing temperatures, the amount of groundwater available for agricultural practices in the future will be inadequate. Hence the importance of computational methods with a view to estimating irrigation requirements under the changing climate conditions.

The increased irrigation demand is also expected to affect infrastructure requirements. Zhang et al. (2015) examined the effects of climate and irrigation infrastructure on irrigation water use and assessed the potential adaptive effects of more efficient irrigation infrastructure on water uses under current and future drought conditions by using models based on irrigation depth for the period 1985-2005 in USA western regions. They examined differences in infrastructure requirements associated to irrigation type (e.g., rice and surface irrigation) and

geographical constraints potentially affecting the selected irrigation infrastructure (e.g., surface irrigation is unsuitable for undulating slopes). By using predictive models, they concluded that substantially reducing the surface-irrigated area in western USA -by at least 40%-would be the only way of keeping the irrigation depth at baseline climate. Hence, additional solute ions will be required to supplement changes in irrigation infrastructure and sustain USA agriculture at its present levels without even considering the increased food needs projected for the growing global population.

The main challenge in mitigating a problem is anticipating it. As far as mitigating the impact of climate change is concerned, and based on Equation 1, this amounts to decreasing vulnerability. Developing robust computational modelling programs can provide powerful tools for acting and decreasing risks before unwanted events occur. Installing sensors in critical (or vulnerable) regions to record climate events can be useful to construct models for specific regions. For example, prediction models for the Canadian state of Alberta (Alberta, 2012) have allowed five key strategies to be developed for the future of the irrigation industry. The strategies focus on specific needs regarding productivity; efficiency (; conservation, water supply; and environmental care.

One especially worthy initiative in this context is PROHIMET, a thematic network created and originally supported by the CYTED Program (www.prohimet.org). PROHIMET is concerned with the problems posed by floods and droughts, and with their effects on climate change. Preliminary diagnoses have provided recommendations for appropriate implementation of early warning systems for drought and flooding. The first step to be taken in this direction is capacitation in vulnerable regions. Colombia and Uruguay have launched two pilot projects to identify and solve regional problems through interdisciplinary, cooperative participation of professionals from different countries. These programs focus on small geographical areas and their conclusions are expected to be applicable to many other places with similar problems.

The above-described approaches have proved useful to develop early warning systems based on hydro---meteorological monitoring and forecasting for precluding the consequences of unfavourable climate events (i.e., to decrease vulnerability) and decrease their risk as a result.

Modifications in seasonal rainfall patterns and the occurrence of more severe precipitation events (along with associated floods) would cause delays in both planting and harvesting. As noted in Section 1, several studies suggest that global warming and climate variability have a very negative influence on food and feed production and food security worldwide (Thornton et al, 2014; Rosenzweig et al., 2016) . Climate variability is important as it often leads to droughts and decreases crop yields, and even famin in unsafe food regions (Iizumi and Ramankutty, 2015) . One additional concern in this respect has arisen from the combination of climate change with population growth, dietary changes and increasing biofuel demand, all of the having negative effects (Lobell et al., 2011; Spurgeon et al., 2020 ).

This scenario clearly shows the importance of making sound, timely decisions on crop production. Existing gaps in this respect could be filled by considering: (a) the effect of economic conditions and access to technology on farmer responses to climate shocks; (b) the impact of extreme weather events on certain crop areas; and (c) the effects of altering work calendars and field workability to address climate impacts on crop production. Thanks to the technological expertise of local people, farmers have always understood the effects of climate on crop production very well (Iizumi & Ramankutty, 2015) .

Based on the known effects of climate changes on crops, the greatest technological challenge is to detect, ascribe and understand them, to define accurate prediction models for the future (Iizumi & Ramankutty, 2015) . 

FAO (Nelson et al., 2009; Montanarella et al., 2015) has warned that the quality of whey is degrading under the joint effects of population growth, industrialization and climate change.

Threats like erosion, depletion of nutrients and loss of organic carbon should be addressed by developing effective strategies to preserve existing cultivation areas with sustainable management practices and increase the productivity of land currently not amenable to cultivation for food production (Wagena et al., 2018; Butterbach-Bahl, 2011; Chang, 2004; Hu et al., 2003; Kucharik et al., 2008) .

The international community should therefore promote sustainable land management through appropriate policies and rational investments (Mosquera-Losada et al., 2018) . The increase of temperatures will shift agricultural activity to higher latitudes, where soils and nutrients are less suitable for crop production. In addition, the rise in sea level can make a number of areas currently providing substantial amounts of vegetable foods disappear, and severely impair food production and security as a result. The ensuing damage can also be expected to increase volatility in food prices on free markets, where deregulation would give way to the law of supply and demand.

The lack of nutrients in high-latitude soils is an unavoidable challenge in regions such as

Finland (Peltonen-Sainio et al., 2018; Kaukoranta et al., 2008) or southern Scandinavia (Aronsson et al., 2016) , where it seriously hampers improvements in food production. One other side effect of reduced crop yields is accumulation of salts in cultivated soils, which makes useless for agricultural production. According to FAO's report on the status of soils (vide supra), about 760 000 km 2 of cropland is salinized worldwide.

There is also the acidity of arable soil layers, which can strongly diminish food production or even soil cultivation. In the short term, further degradation of soils should be avoided at all costs while the climatic conditions still allow them to be used as arable land. In the long term, effective technology to facilitate the adaptation of soils in high latitudes to crops and new cultivation techniques allowing nutrient-poor soils or even no soil to be used should be developed.

Existing cultivated soils, including global stocks of soil organic matter, should be protected to minimize further degradation and restore productivity. In addition, it would be useful to reduce the amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers used by employing alternative solutions in nutrient-deficient regions.

In mitigating impacts, it is important to strengthen crop resilience (Walia et al., 2018) .

Some authors have suggested that conservation agriculture and diversified crop rotation can help preserve food security, restore soil health and thereby minimize the potential effects of global warming (Parihar et al., 2018; Necpalova et al., 2018; Angulo et al., 2013; Burney et al., 2010; Chadwick et al., 2011) . These benefits rely on the increased global potential for CO2 sequestration of soils containing large amounts of organic C. Carbon sequestration appears to be an efficient strategy to boost agricultural production, and to purify surface and underground waters (Lal, 2004; Autret et al., 2016; de Gryze et al., 2011; Tribouillois et al., 2018) .

implemented throughout to monitor and predict the changes global warming is expected to bring about in the next 50 years. This will require investing in research and development to implement and disseminate technologies and practices for the sustainable management of cultivated soils, and making the public aware of the problem through education by, for example, incorporating the issue into geology, geography, biology and economics study programs.

Issuing appropriate regulations and incentives to good management practices for cultivated soils and penalizing harmful practices to deter famers can also be very useful. Thus, introducing and consolidating certifications of sustainable agricultural practices can provide consumers with more appealing products and empower them as stakeholders of the process. As 

FAO recommends using a twofold strategy based on actions to be taken on a global and regional scale, and, especially, investing substantially in improving existing early detection and control systems. This will require developing new agricultural practices, introducing other crops and animal varieties, and applying the principles of integrated pest management to help curb their spread. It may also be necessary to consider using biological agents to fight pests or using Bacillus thuringiensis crops are plants genetically engineered to contain the endospore toxins of the bacterium, referred to as Cry toxins. Such Cry toxins are toxic to specific species of insects belonging to orders Lepidoptera, Coleoptera, Hymenoptera, Diptera, and Nematoda.

In 2016, the total world area cultivated with genetically modified crops (GM crops) reached about 185 million ha, although there is a worldwide controversy about the safety of B.

thuringiensis crops to the environment and mammals (Abbas, 2018) .

It is imperative for governments to strengthen help to small farmers so that they can cope with existing impacts and build resilience to changes. Some authors (Harvey et al., 2018) have underlined the capital need to make adjustments on climate adaptation policies and programs focusing on various socio-economic conditions, different biophysical contexts and various climatic tensions, with special emphasis on small and medium farmers. One of the most promising initiatives in this context was the program "Allied Insects", which used insects containing certain viruses as vectors to help crops fight threats such as drought or pollution Food security and livelihoods associated with activities related to extractive fishing and aquaculture are key to numerous coastal, river, island and inland areas. However, we must bear in mind that the status of resources, monitored by FAO, continues to decline. Although fisheries substantially contribute to the global demand for food (especially in poor countries, with greater food insecurity), the lack of data on the status of many fisheries in inland waters leads to a more delicate situation. All this demonstrates the great importance of responding efficiently and effectively to the crisis associated with global warming: not only fisheries are essential for food, livelihoods and trade, but also the generally poor state of resources restricts their ability to absorb climatic shocks (Barange et al., 2014) . Also, commercial fishing will be significantly affected due to changes in abundance and in fish and other shellfish species.

The ocean makes up 71% of the planet and provides many services to human communities from mitigating weather extremes to generating the oxygen we breath, from producing the food we eat to storing the excess carbon dioxide we generate. However, the effects of increasing greenhouse gas emissions threaten coastal and marine ecosystems through changes in ocean temperature and melting of ice, which in turn affect ocean currents, weather patterns, and sea level. Extreme ocean temperatures and ocean acidification endanger coral reefs, the foundations of many fisheries, also modifying the quantity and quality of phytoplankton and zooplankton, and dramatically affecting the entire food chain.

Global fish production from capture and culture operations also contribute for the global CO2 emissions (Parker et al., 2018) . Although overall fish production is relatively energy-efficient relative to other high-quality animal protein production on land, there is still place for further reduction in energy use and gas emissions (FAO, 2018b).

The vessel and gear used in capture fisheries are two major users of energy. Thus, in stationary gear fisheries, vessels travelling to and from fishing grounds often use large amounts of energy, and so does resistance from the fishing gear in mobile gear fisheries of the trawling or dredging type. Shore-side facilities should take advantage of maturing renewable energy systems such as those based on wind and solar power. In aquaculture, intensive production of finfish and crustaceans, which relies heavily on feeds and aeration, is the greatest source of greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated food production systems such as those of fish and rice or 20 shrimp and mangrove can substantially reduce such emissions from aquaculture systems (Badiola et al., 2018) .

Fishery management has a strong impact on all aspects of fish production (especially in capture fisheries), and can thus influence fuel use efficiency. In addition, fuel subsidies intended to support fisheries have usually deterred promotion of fuel-efficient vessels, gears and operations. Management measures reducing overall fishing efforts and improving stock abundance (e.g., individual harvesting quotas and similar rights-based regimes) have proved useful to increase fuel efficiency in capture fisheries. In any case, fuel use efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions from fisheries should be considered an integral part of fishery management to assure sustainability.

Climate change have significant impacts on freshwater and marine aquatic systems and hence on fisheries and aquaculture (Peeler & Ernst, 2019) . Fisheries and aquaculture are highly 

A need currently exists to develop a food system-based approach integrating the social sciences to improve our understanding of interactions and dynamics between stakeholders and drivers, and to develop horizon-scanning protocols ( Table 1 ). This will require improving data processing pipelines in order to prepare big data analytics, implement data validation systems and develop data sharing agreements to explore mutual benefits, increase transparency and improve communication.

Existing guidelines for food control remain valid in the face of the potential additional challenges posed by climate change-related phenomena (FAO/WHO, 2016) . Different issues are particularly relevant in order to identify emerging risks as soon as possible. Such issues are detailed explained below.

Food safety involves the whole process of food production, from pre-production to the final product. Therefore, food safety assurance is a complex task. Recommendations associated to food safety generally underline the necessity of an extensive input and coordination, and this is a challenging task in many countries. Animal and plant health, environment and food hygiene are interconnected aspects expectedly affected by climate change. Therefore, food safety challenges involve a preparation and understanding in an interdisciplinary context. Furthermore, the large implications of climate change on public health and food safety have complex consequences (Schnitter and Berry, 2019) .

The national programs of good practices on hygiene, agriculture, animal husbandry, veterinary care and aquaculture are crucial for defining management strategies towards climate change.

Nevertheless, such guidelines have to be engineered taking into account the impact of changes on the prevalence and occurrence of microbiological and chemical hazards, as well as on insects, pests and their vectors. The development of guidelines on these issues requires the development of high standard applied research to support the different approaches proposed to solve the problem. To this aim, a continuous update of guidelines is crucial, as soon as novel knowledge is created. However, for a successful implementation of this, a compromise of governments and industrial associations is a determining factor.

An early identification of potential problems entails an integrated monitoring of both food and environmental changes because it enables the implementation of solutions. Although such programs are implemented in different countries, such surveillance requires a continuous revision of emerging hazards associated to global climate change. The data produced by such programs can be very useful to improve predictive modelling and risk assessment, so they should be easy to share nationally and internationally. At an international level, relevant information can be circulated through networks such as INFOSAN (the International Food Safety Authorities Network). This network provides a mechanism for exchanging information on routine and emerging food safety issues. A need clearly exists to focus research efforts on the development of expeditious methods for detecting pathogens and contaminants in complex sample matrices such as foods in order to facilitate a rapid response to the results of monitoring and surveillance programs (https://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/cross-cutting-issues/networks).

Monitoring the epidemiology is critical in public health, not only for an early identification of emerging diseases, but also to implement strategies for their control. For this reason, an efficient epidemiological monitoring requires a close collaboration of professionals dealing with human and animal health, as well as those focused on environmental issues. In this regard, a quick investigation of unusual outbreaks is critical. The International Health Regulations provides a management program for coordinating events associated to climate change that could lead to international health emergencies, also providing assistance for their detection, notification. One

Health is an emerging global key concept integrating human and animal health through international research and policy. The complex relationships between the human and animal have resulted in a human-animal-environment interface since prehistorical times. People, animals, plants, and the environment are so intrinsically linked that prevention of risks and the mitigation of effects of crises that originate at the interface between humans, animals, and their environments can only improve health and wellbeing. The "One Health" approach has been successfully implemented in numerous projects around the world. The containment of pandemic threats such as avian influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome within months of outbreak are few examples of successful applications of the One Health paradigm (Shrestha et al., 2018) .

Different predictive models have been developed to foresee the probability of a given outcome to occur. Some of the have been defined to evaluate how the climate change can affect ecological systems and lead to emerging hazards. The marine sector has used such models in combination with meteorological, oceanographic and remote sensing information to predict harmful algal blooms (Shutler et al., 2012) . Because accuracy in the predictions depends on the amount of data available and on their quality, international collaboration is essential in developing accurate models. In addition, as climate-associated changes are the more and more complex, the development of predictive models requires sustainable accomplishments and continuous international cooperation.

Risk assessment gives a scientific background to develop and adopt food safety standards, as well as other food safety actions. The effects of climate change can lead to novel food safety risks, which in turn determine novel priorities in risk assessment. For instance, if mixtures of mycotoxins appear more frequently in crops, then the maximal accepted concentrations should be revised. New mycotoxin occurrence frequency and level data from monitoring and surveillance programs could also influence decisions on appropriate limits at the national or international level. A group of Joint FAO/WHO experts has set up risk assessment on contaminants, pesticides, veterinary drug residues, food additives and microbiological hazards.

Furthermore, another group of experts from Joint FAO/WHO was designated to deal with emerging issues as they arise. All the countries members of WHO and FAO can propose the prioritization of risk-assessment at an international level (FAO/WHO, 2007) . Moreover, these countries have access to risk assessment guidance on emerging hazards arising from climate change.

International risk assessment mechanisms should be established and experts trained in developing countries to understanding how risks must be assessed in order to make informed decisions on their local applicability in the light of new data obtained from their own monitoring and surveillance programs.

Improved early warning systems are fundamental to reduce the risk posed by climate changerelated natural disasters and emergencies on the lives and livelihoods of vulnerable people. This requires close cooperation among the veterinary, food safety and public health sectors at both the national and the international level. Emergency preparedness is also essential. Countries should review their existing food safety emergency plans and develop new ones. They should review and update other disaster and emergency plans to ensure that food safety management issues are appropriately dealt with in those situations (Tirado et al., 2010; Watts et al., 2018) .

Food safety should be assured through effective control measures at every step along the food chain (Zwietering et al., 2010) . Since one-third of food produced in developing countries is lost before consumption, and due to high moisture contents in storage promote spoilage and production of mycotoxins, the "dry chain", which is initial drying with storage in water-proof containers, is proposed as an effective control technology (Bradford et al., 2018) . Other new drying and storage technologies make implementation of the dry chain feasible to minimize mycotoxin accumulation and insect infestations in dry products, reduce food loss, improve food quality, safety and security, and protect public health.

If consumers are to play their intended role, they should be aware of the hazards associated with some foods and of the relevant control measures. Consumers' education is therefore essential and governments have a role to play here. The public does not properly understand some hazards, such as those posed by mycotoxins, as they represent an essentially invisible threat that is difficult to publicize effectively. Informing the public about typical foods susceptible to mycotoxin contamination, and about their risks to public health, might help reduce the use and trade of substandard food in hard times. 

Some of the above-discussed issues share a common theme, namely: the need for applied research to provide a better understanding of problems and for new approaches to dealing with them. The ability to use science to find solutions relies on prior investments in developing human resources. Many developing countries will require more careful planning to encourage the development of the competence needed to address pressing problems. In many cases, it is already possible to make better use of existing competence at the national level by fostering relationships among government services, universities and private sector associations, among others. Carefully assessing food safety capacity building requirements by national authorities is also essential for optimal training and education through technical assistance from interested donors and international organizations (Mahmoud, 2019) .

The whole issue of climate change is a global concern (Esteki et al., 2019), so international bodies should play a major role in assuring that all of its dimensions are properly dealt with (Galvez et al., 2018) . As noted earlier, a need exists to share data and information obtained from food safety and disease monitoring and surveillance systems that international networks could help fulfil. Regional and international cooperation on selected research areas of common interest would probably afford better outputs from existing resources. 

Measuring SDG indicators is an enormous task (FAO, 2019a). To alleviate the associated problems, FAO has launched a systematic capacity development programme comprising regional training workshops, technical assistance missions and e-learning courses. However, data for a number of specific SDG indicators in terms of country coverage, data points per country or both are still limited. No globally comparable data exist for four critical indicators pertaining to agricultural sustainability, women's access to land, and food losses, and waste.

The lack of reliable information has not only deterred countries from implementing effective food and agriculture policies, but also hindered development of international cooperation efforts. Very few countries perform farm or household surveys, compile forest inventories or assess fish stocks. In addition, they often fail to obtain the data needed for key food and agriculture-related indicators, which could be easily upgraded to broaden country coverage in reporting on SDGs. In some cases, the data needed to compile indicators are available but not reported to FAO on a regular basis. To alleviate these shortcomings, FAO recently launched a multi-donor programme with USD 21 million to expedite support for the collection, production, dissemination and use of all 21 SDG indicators under its supervision.

Although agriculture has always been at the mercy of unpredictable weather, today is even more vulnerable. Warmer temperatures may increase crop yields in some regions, but climate change is expected to have adverse overall impacts leading to reduced food supplies and increased food prices (Nelson et al., 2009) . Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are already experiencing high rates of food insecurity, and are predicted to see the greatest declines in food production (Schmidhuber & Tubiello, 2007; Nelson et al., 2009; Gornall et al., 2010) . Elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide are expected to lower the levels of zinc, iron and other important nutrients in crops (Myers et al., 2014) . With changes in rainfall patterns, farmers face dual threats from flooding and drought. Flooding washes away fertile topsoil on which farmers depend for productivity, whereas droughts dry soil out and make it easier to blow or wash away.

Elevated temperatures increase the water requirements of crops and make them more vulnerable in dry periods (Nelson et al., 2009 (IPCC, 2013 and 2014a) . Rising sea levels are increasing flood risks for coastal farms and boosting salt-water intrusion into coastal freshwater aquifers -thus making these water sources too salty for irrigation (Backlund et al., 2008) .

Climate change is also expected to have an impact on ecosystems and the services they provide to agriculture (e.g., pollination, pest control by natural predators). Many wild plant species used in domestic plant breeding are threatened by extinction (Jarvis et al., 2010). Food system activities, including food production and transport, and food waste storage in landfills, produce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Livestock, which is the greatest contributor, accounts for an estimated 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions from human activities (Gerber et al., 2013) , and meat from ruminants is especially emission-intensive (Tilman & Clark, 2014) .

World leaders have agreed that the average global temperature should not rise by more than 2 ºC above pre-industrial levels if the most catastrophic climate change scenarios are to be avoided. Even if this goal is fulfilled, many climate impacts such as sea level rise are likely to remain for centuries (IPCC, 2014b) . Imagine a scenario in 2050 where societies have transitioned away from coal and natural gas to wind, solar and other renewable sources of energy. In this scenario, public policy and infrastructure investments will have turned walking, cycling and public transit the most accessible and popular forms of transportation and air travel will be used only as a last resort. In this otherwise best-case scenario, if global trends in meat and dairy intake continue, our likelihood of staying below the 2º C threshold will still be extremely low (Kim et al., 2015) . This is why urgent, dramatic reductions in meat and dairy consumption, together with substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from energy use, transportation, and other sources, are crucial to avoid catastrophic climate changes. The responsibility for eating lower on the food chain falls most heavily on countries such as the US, which is the greatest per capita consumer of meat and dairy. Changing diets on an international scale will require more than simply re-educating consumers; in fact, national policies will have to provide increasing support for plant-centric diets (Kim et al., 2015) . Strategies for improving resilience to climate change and extreme conditions should be anticipated in all production management areas ( Table 2) . Developing programs to help farmers manage risk Fostering regional outreach, extension and education

Genetically engineered (modified) crops (Bacillus thuringiensis crops) and the world controversy on their safety

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Invasion biology of spotted wing

Drosophila suzukii): A global perspective and future priorities

Alternative arable cropping systems: A key to increase soil organic carbon storage? Results from a 16-year field experiment

Energy use in Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS): A review. Aquacultural Engineering

The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States

Climate change and increased irrigation demands: What is left for hydropower generation? Results from two semi-arid basins

Insect overwintering in a changing climate

Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Climate change and insect pest distribution range

Climate Change and Insect Pests, CABI Climate Government Office for Science

Climate change favours a destructive agricultural pest in temperate regions: Late spring cold matters

Nanotechnology for environmental remediation: materials and applications

Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case studies

Climate change impacts and adaptation among smallholder farmers in Central America

Climate-smart pest management: building resilience of farms and landscapes to changing pest threats

Food security under climate change

Climate effects on corn yield in Missouri

The effect of heat stress on gene expression and synthesis of heat-shock and milk proteins in bovine mammary epithelial cells

Climate change and inequalities in the Anthropocene. Chpater 5 in

Machine learning and artificial intelligence to aid climate change research and preparedness

How do weather and climate influence cropping area and intensity? Global Food Security

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Summary for policymakers

Summary for policymakers

Climate Change

Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems

Impacts of recent climate change on Wisconsin corn and soybean yield trends

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom

Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries

Soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change

Climate trends and global crop production since 1980

Improving capacity-building for food safety risk assessment in developing countries

Irrigation water management in arid regions of Middle East: Assessing spatio-temporal variation of actual evapotranspiration through remote sensing techniques and meteorological data

Climate change and seafood safety: Human health implications

Improving societal outcomes of extreme weather in a changing climate: An integrated perspective

Agroforestry in Europe: A land management policy tool to combat climate change

Towards a sustainable metric and indicators for the goal of sustainability in agricultural and food production

Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition

Potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from Swiss agriculture

Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation

Genetic selection for thermotolerance in ruminants

Fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions of world fisheries

Indigenous people and conservation: from rights to resource management

Longterm impact of conservation agriculture and diversified maize rotations on carbon pools and stocks, mineral nitrogen fractions and nitrous oxide fluxes in inceptisol of India

Introduction: Improved aquatic animal health management is vital to aquaculture's role in global food security

Warming autumns at high latitudes of Europe: An opportunity to lose or gain in cereal production? Regional Environmental Change

Agricultural research, or a new bioweapon system?

Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science

Will climate change increase irrigation requirements in agriculture of Central Europe? A simulation study for Northern Germany

Assessing impacts of climate change on food security worldwide

SaltMod: A tool for interweaving of irrigation and drainage for salinity control

Global food security under climate change

Earth system modeling 2.0: a blueprint for models that learn from observations and targeted high-resolution simulations

The climate change, food security and human health nexus in Canada: A framework to protect population health

Farmer strategies for tree crop diversification in the humid tropics. A review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development

Climate Change and Management of Cool Season Grain Legume Crops

Mapping climate change vulnerabilities to infectious diseases in Europe

One health: The interface between veterinary and human health

An adaptive approach to detect high-biomass algal blooms from EO chlorophyll-a data in support of harmful algal bloom monitoring

Climate adaptation by crop migration

Canopy temperature depression as an effective physiological trait for drought screening. Chapter

Aquatic pests invasions and climate change

Ecosystem-specific growth responses to climate pattern by a temperate freshwater fish

Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly

Identifying optimal water and nitrogen inputs for high efficiency and low environment impacts of a greenhouse summer cucumber with a model method

Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation Nature Communications

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health

Climate change and food safety: A review

Cover crops mitigate direct greenhouse gases balance but reduce drainage under climate change scenarios in temperate climate with dry summers

World Population Prospects

World 'off track' to meet most Sustainable Development Goals on hunger, food security and nutrition. UN News. Global perspective human stories

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

Irrigated Agriculture. Technologies, Practices, and Implications for Water Scarcity. GAO-20-128SP, a report to congressional requesters

A modular steroid-inducible gene expression system for use in rice

Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Does tillage or fertilizer provide resilience to extreme weather in southern Illinois?

The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come

Climate change and irrigation demand: uncertainty and adaptation

Impact of global warming on aquatic animals

Impact of Climate Change on Plant Diseases and IPM Strategies. Chapter

Adaptation of irrigation infrastructure on irrigation demands under future drought in the United States

Highlights: 1.-Emphasis must be placed on integrated food systems with approaches to plant and animal biology 2.-Warning systems based on hydro-meteorological forecasting will decrease the risk of climate events 3.-Diversification respond to environmental degradation associated with the abuse of crop monocultures 4.-Development of soil information systems will predict the changes global warming is expected to bring 5