key: cord-0879684-aeigvriq
authors: Jetha, Arif; Shamaee, Ali; Bonaccio, Silvia; Gignac, Monique A. M.; Tucker, Lori B.; Tompa, Emile; Bültmann, Ute; Norman, Cameron D.; Banks, Cristina G.; Smith, Peter M.
title: Fragmentation in the future of work: A horizon scan examining the impact of the changing nature of work on workers experiencing vulnerability
date: 2021-06-14
journal: Am J Ind Med
DOI: 10.1002/ajim.23262
sha: 89dcf2cfd9392ddc7aef88069d189501e37d7785
doc_id: 879684
cord_uid: aeigvriq

INTRODUCTION: The future of work is characterized by changes that could disrupt all aspects of the nature and availability of work. Our study aims to understand how the future of work could result in conditions, which contribute to vulnerability for different groups of workers. METHODS: A horizon scan was conducted to systematically identify and synthesize diverse sources of evidence, including academic and gray literature and resources shared over social media. Evidence was synthesized, and trend categories were developed through iterative discussions among the research team. RESULTS: Nine trend categories were uncovered, which included the digital transformation of the economy, artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning‐enhanced automation, AI‐enabled human resource management systems, skill requirements for the future of work; globalization 4.0, climate change and the green economy, Gen Zs and the work environment; populism and the future of work, and external shocks to accelerate the changing nature of work. The scan highlighted that some groups of workers may be more likely to experience conditions that contribute to vulnerability, including greater exposure to job displacement or wage depression. The future of work could also create opportunities for labor market engagement. CONCLUSION: The future of work represents an emerging public health concern. Exclusion from the future of work has the potential to widen existing social and health inequities. Thus, tailored supports that are resilient to changes in the nature and availability of work are required for workers facing vulnerability.

The world of work is rapidly changing. An increasing amount of research has focused on understanding how changes in the future of work will impact workers and workplaces. [1] [2] [3] There are fewer studies that explore issues affecting how the future of work will impact specific labor market subgroups, especially those who could be disadvantaged by changing work arrangements and work conditions. To better understand these issues, we conducted an expansive horizon scan of evidence to identify and describe trends that characterize the future of work for vulnerable workers. By synthesizing the literature, insight into potential challenges and opportunities for certain groups of workers can be revealed as the working world changes. These findings also provide important directions for additional research that can be used to inform the design of programmatic and policy responses that will support the inclusion of vulnerable workers in the future of work.

A recent analysis found that close to two-thirds of occupational titles in 2018 had not been invented as of 1940. 4 The rise of new occupations has largely been driven by technological change. Some labor market experts posit that we are entering a Fourth Industrial Revolution that is driven by the digitization and automation of social, political, economic, and environmental domains of life that has the potential to drastically speed up the pace of change. 5 Literature on factors influencing work trends and related outcomes ("the future of work") also indicates that the advancement and adoption of different digital technologies can be coupled with sociodemographic (e.g., aging population), sociopolitical (e.g., globalization), and ecological changes (e.g., climate change). 4, [6] [7] [8] Not surprisingly, the future of work is characterized by the potential for dramatic change to every industry and the considerable transformation of the nature of work (e.g., evolving work conditions, job skills and training requirements, psychosocial resources and demands, environmental conditions, and work arrangements). 9,10 Some argue that changes in the future of work are occurring at a larger scale and at a quicker pace when compared to past periods of technological adoption. 11 Importantly, the future of work is emerging from ongoing shifts within industrialized labor markets that include a transition from manufacturing to a service-based economy, increased offshoring of work, growth in nonstandard and precarious work arrangements (e.g., gig work), a decline in union representation and legislative protections for workers and widening income inequality. [12] [13] [14] [15] Of concern, recent studies suggest that employers, policymakers, and workers report lacking the insights and tangible strategies to ensure preparation for large-scale shifts in the nature of work. 16 This knowledge gap may have significant implications for workers who have been exposed to circumstances that may contribute to vulnerability.

Our definition of vulnerability is informed by research that considers the intersection between work context and worker characteristics. 17 In particular, in our study, we use the term vulnerable workers to refer to groups of workers who are exposed to structural factors (e.g., racism, ableism, sexism) that may contribute to adverse work arrangements or work environments, including precarious work, lowwage employment, and hazardous conditions. Vulnerable workers may also face an absence of regulatory protections, union representation, career advancement opportunities, or may have high job demands and low decision latitude. [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] Studies show that certain groups of workers have been more likely to be exposed to circumstances that contribute to vulnerability when compared to population averages, including youth and young adults, women, racialized groups, recent immigrants, people with disabilities, members of the LGBTQ2+ community, Indigenous peoples, and those with low socioeconomic status. 17, 19, [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] Studies of past periods of technological advancement (e.g., introduction of personal computers to workplaces) or economic change (e.g., Great Recession) showed growth in social and health inequities with these groups of workers who were more likely to report barriers to high-quality employment when compared to population averages. 32, 33 It is unclear how the anticipated changes in the future of work will impact levels of vulnerability in the labor market. It is also unclear whether there may be a positive effect related to the changing nature of work for vulnerable workers. A comprehensive scan of trends in the future of work is necessary to identify the changes to work arrangements or work environments that can contribute to disadvantage for different groups of workers. Moreover, our research has important implications for policy and programmatic directions that are specifically beneficial for workers who could be excluded from the future of work.

Promoting sustained employment for vulnerable workers represents a critical public health priority. A body of research demonstrates that working conditions are directly tied to the physical and mental health of workers and may contribute to health and social inequities in the working population. 34, 35 Research on the social determinants of health finds that employment income is associated with access to safe housing, education, food security, social services, and medical care that provide pathways to better health. 12, 18, [36] [37] [38] The importance of our study of the future of work is further underscored by the United Nation's (UN) Sustainable Development Goal #8 on Decent Work. According to the UN, promoting inclusive and decent work (i.e., productive work that delivers a fair income, job security, and social protections) represents an important policy priority to foster the health and well-being of the working population. 39 Dedicated approaches are needed to ensure that vulnerable workers are protected from challenges that could emerge in the future of work and as a strategy to promote health.

Using a comprehensive horizon scan of a diverse body of literature, our study aims to understand how the future of work might contribute to levels of vulnerability. Specific objectives of this study are to (1) identify existing evidence on different trends that may span social, technological, economic, environmental, and political domains and characterize the future of work; and (2) to synthesize and describe how each trend might impact vulnerability within the labor market.

To address study objectives, we utilized a novel horizon scan methodology. Horizon scanning is a systematic informationgenerating activity commonly used in the field of strategic foresight -a planning-oriented discipline related to future studies-to identify trends that have the potential to emerge over time. [40] [41] [42] The horizon scanning process is inclusive and seeks to identify and synthesize diverse sources of evidence (e.g., academic research, gray literature, and social media). 43 Based on their ranking, five seminal reports were used as an initial guide to extract search terms that spanned social, technological, economic, environmental, and political domains. Search terms were then finalized with input from a library scientist (Table 1) . Terms spanning social, technological, economic, environmental, and political categories were searched using a Boolean OR operator and combined with work outcome search terms, future-and change-related search terms, and worker vulnerability terms using a Boolean AND operator. 46, 48 The list of search terms is presented in Supplement 1.

To capture the most more recent changes in the nature of work, the search was restricted to articles published between 2015 to September 2020. 

A search of the social media site Twitter also was performed to capture ideas on the future of work and complement the findings from academic and gray literature searches. 49 Twitter is commonly used for the public communication of topics with policy relevance and provides an interactive platform that can capture insights from over 330 million users. 50, 51 Using the hashtag function, search terms described in the section above were entered into Twitter's standard search interface. 52 Twitter searches occurred in January 2020 and were repeated in August 2020 to capture changes attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the large number of tweets focusing on the future of work, we restricted our search to tweets where there was at least a moderate amount of engagement (i.e., ≥five likes or retweets) and where the tweet included a link to a specific resource (e.g., gray and peer-reviewed literature or a website).

Titles and abstracts or executive summaries of the literature uncovered from peer review and gray literature sources and the social media search were reviewed by a member of our research team to determine relevancy. Eligible English language literature that was carried forward in our synthesis documented a potential trend that would result in a change to the nature of work, focused on an OECD context, and described an explicit impact on levels of vulnerability for workers. 53 Next, members of the research team reviewed each relevant article and synthesized the salient themes using a shared spreadsheet. The synthesis of literature involved summarizing the article, its impact on the future of work, and how it could contribute to vulnerability. Where possible, the team also documented specific groups of workers who could be most affected by a change in the nature of work. Discussions between members of the research team were held to categorize articles according to common themes.

Through this iterative process, trend categories were developed. All procedures were pilot-tested before being implemented widely to ensure members of the study team could screen and synthesize a large body of evidence.

The search uncovered a large literature base on the future of work to highlight that not one single group of workers was consistently represented across the literature, and, indeed, the trends we identified cut across multiple sources of worker vulnerability. As a result, in presenting our synthesis, we describe the impact of key trends broadly for different workers and elaborate on how they may shape conditions that contribute to vulnerability. Where possible, we highlight how a trend category could present challenges and opportunities for specific groups of workers.

A body of peer-reviewed and gray literature uncovered in our scan described the impact of advanced digital technologies on the changing nature of work, including 5G technology, Internet of Things (IoT), smart sensors, cloud computing, virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), three-dimensional (3D) printing, robotics, and blockchain technology. 1 Although very different, the studies consistently described digital technologies contributing to hyperconnectivity between people, businesses, digital devices, and data. 1, 54 For example, the increasing use of IoT devices or advanced robots could mean that workers will increasingly find themselves performing job tasks that are closely integrated with machines. 55, 56 Other workers, especially those employed in occupations characterized by repetitive and low-skilled job tasks may be at risk of displacement or wage depression as a result of digital technologies that facilitate automation. Data have estimated that every advanced robot introduced into the labor market per 1000 workers will reduce the employment-to-population ratio by 0.2% and contribute to a decline of wages by 0.42%. 57, 58 Some digital technologies (e.g., cloud computing, online collaboration tools) were reported as having contributed to advanced telepresence where a worker's skills and knowledge can be projected anywhere in the world to perform a range of job tasks (e.g., operating machinery or virtual brainstorming), which could be beneficial for workers requiring location flexibility or those with mobility impairments. [59] [60] [61] Studies also described the use of VR/AR to combine physical and virtual worlds that may enhance sensory experiences required for high-quality telework experiences. 62, 63 In the manufacturing sector, 3D printing has contributed to the direct development of inputs required for the production of goods rather than relying on a more complex supply chain spread across geographical locations. 62, 64 Advancements in digital technologies (e.g., smartphones, 5G technology) has also facilitated the exponential growth of a marketplace of gig workers that can perform on-demand physical (e.g., transport, couriering, food delivery, and cleaning), repetitive (e.g., data entry, clerical work) or cognitive job tasks (e.g., website developers, editors, and graphic designers). 11, [65] [66] [67] Despite growth opportunities, the literature we identified showed that workers who have been traditionally disadvantaged in the labor market may also be more likely to face barriers to participating in an economy undergoing a digital transformation. Studies point to groups of workers, such as those who are employed in routinized occupations, as being more likely to have job tasks or functions that can be replaced by a digital technology and are less [68] [69] [70] Exclusion from the digital economy can be exacerbated by workers who hold lower levels of education or possess less technological literacy. 69, 71 At the same time, jobs that are lowpaid and involve demanding manual tasks are expected to be less affected by the digitization of work (e.g., food and beverage worker, janitor, healthcare aide) and will remain in high demand in a digitized economy. 4 Another body of research suggested that the digital transformation of the economy may increase the likelihood that vulnerable workers are forced into gig work and exposed to wage instability, job insecurity or unsafe working conditions. 69,72 At the same time, gig work could also provide certain groups (e.g., youth, immigrants) with job opportunities and work experiences that are necessary to facilitate labor market entry and career advancement. 72, 73 Gig work may also provide scheduling and location flexibility for groups of workers who may report activity limitations (e.g., people with disabilities) or have more caregiving responsibilities (e.g., women). 72,73

Discourse on the future of work has tended to focus on the automation of job tasks. It is estimated that up to 60% of occupations consist of job tasks of which one-third are automatable. 74 Other more dire estimates have suggested that up to 50% of occupations are expected to be completely replaced by automated systems. [74] [75] [76] [77] A majority of earlier studies on the automation of work have found that repetitive and low-skilled jobs are among the most likely to be automated. 75, 77 At the same time, the automation of work has resulted in the development of new jobs, which may offset labor market displacement. 78 More recent literature highlights the role of computerized systems within workplaces that draw on AI to replicate human intelligence and behaviors in performing complex and cognitive job tasks. 64 Advancements in the development of ML, neural networks, and deep learning have increased the likelihood of computerized systems performing advanced information processing and predictive jobs tasks (e.g., data analysis, communication, prediction, and problem-solving). 67, [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] Numerous examples of AI applications have existed in diverse sectors, including finance (e.g., algorithmic stock trading), manufacturing (e.g., intelligent robots), transportation (e.g., autonomous vehicles), and retail (e.g., chatbot customer service assistants). 64, 85 In many of these cases, workers and machines may be required to jointly complete job tasks. 86 The growing use of AI and ML applications in the labor market has produced mixed outcomes.

AI/ML-enhanced automation of job tasks could minimize the availability of employment opportunities but also drive innovation and create new jobs. 54, 87, 88 Also, a growing number of employers reported utilizing AI to assist workers and increase productivity, especially for workers in occupations that rely on information, calculation, problem-solving, and communication. 4, 86 The literature identified in our scan showed that AI/MLenhanced automation has the potential to contribute to vulnerability for some groups of workers. 74, 89 Workers in occupations that are at greater risk of having their work automated (e.g., those employed in low-skilled and repetitive jobs) could experience employment loss or be forced into lower-quality employment. Some studies sought to identify specific groups of workers who are more likely to work in occupations affected by the automation of work. For example, an analysis of labor market data from the United States found that Black Americans are at a 10% greater likelihood of working in occupations at risk of displacement from automated systems when compared to White Americans. 89 The same study found that being of younger age and holding low levels of educational attainment increased the susceptibility Black Americans faced to job displacement from automated systems. 89, 90 A case study of the Australian mining sector showed that automation disproportionately affected Indigenous workers who were overrepresented in entry-level roles and underrepresented in higher skilled jobs (i.e., engineering and geological roles). 91 AI has the potential to exacerbate displacement for workers affected by automation and may contribute to wage depression for certain groups of workers. [92] [93] [94] The growing application of ML within workplaces also has the potential to impact higher skilled jobs that require greater levels of prediction and could potentially contribute to a growing number of workers in professional jobs that are at risk of displacement. 95 The application of AI and ML within the workplace has also created a performers within an organization) to examine tone and inflection of voice, emotion, and facial reactions. 101 Evidence from our scan indicated that AI-enabled human resource management systems may collect personal information without explicit consent from the worker (e.g., disability status, lifestyle, age) and has the potential to contribute to discrimination or the exclusion of certain groups according to their individual traits that are not relevant to the performance of a job. 102 The potential for discrimination can stem from decisions made during the development of algorithms used to inform the initial parameters of an AI-enabled human resource management system. 99, [103] [104] [105] For instance, socioeconomic status, culture, and experience of software engineers can implicitly bias the development of human resource management systems and inadvertently reinforce gender, racial, or disability biases. 71, 106, 107 What is more, unconscious biases have the potential to be reinforced through the application and testing of these systems in nondiverse samples.

Examples, where AI-enhanced human resource management systems can adversely affect vulnerable workers include the application of predictive job interview tools, which analyze facial or behavioral cues. There is the potential to discriminate against candidates based on personal characteristics (e.g., disability, health, race, or age) who may look or behave differently from a benchmark. 108, 109 As another example, some companies have used gamified assessments (e.g., video game-based pre-employment assessments) that could contribute to discriminatory hiring practices for older adults who are less likely to use these technologies in their daily lives when compared to younger job candidates. 108 What is more, gamified assessments could also be more complex to accommodate for workers with disabilities. 109 Our review also found that AI-facilitated productivity systems that actively monitor workers to showed that by 2022, at least half of employers report that their workers will be required to undertake significant reskilling or upskilling to adapt to changing technological and social demands within their workplaces. 1 To meet emerging skill requirements, the literature indicated that workers across all industries will need to possess advanced technical competencies and digital literacy (i.e., ability to find, evaluate and convey information via digital mediums). 110, 111 Additionally, studies highlighted the importance of workers possessing a range of soft skills (e.g., creativity, critical thinking, collaboration skills, and empathy) that are less likely to be automated and would enable human workers to complement digital technologies and AI/ML applications within workplaces. 18 Research indicated that the adverse impact of climate change on work may be disproportionately experienced by groups of workers who have traditionally experienced vulnerability in the labor market. 144, 152 In particular, our horizon scan found that vulnerable workers maybe be more likely to be employed in occupations that are prone to job displacement as a result of climate change and may also have less access to social protections that support employment interruptions resulting from an extreme weather event. 144 Certain groups of workers may be most affected by climate change, including those from racialized or Indigenous communities, youth and young adults, older adults, and those with low socioeconomic status. 144, 152 One study found that Indigenous persons may be especially affected by climate change because of their disproportionate reliance on natural resources for financial, cultural, and physical well-being when compared to other members of the working population. 144, 164 Studies also suggested that workers exposed to precarious work environments (e.g., seasonal or casual workers) or those employed in certain industries (e.g., farming, construction) are more susceptible to workplace health and safety hazards and interruptions to employment resulting from climate change. 163 In addition, attributed to discrimination faced in the labor market and greater barriers to upskilling and reskilling, some groups of workers (e.g., women and

Indigenous persons) could be at risk of exclusion from new jobs that emerge in the green economy. [165] [166] [167] 3.7 | Trend 7: Gen Z workers and the work environment As Baby Boomers transition into retirement, the labor market will consist of a growing proportion of "Gen Z" workers (those born [1995] [1996] [1997] [1998] [1999] [2000] [2001] [2002] [2003] [2004] [2005] . Currently, over one-quarter of the labor market is composed of Gen Z workers. [168] [169] [170] As the number of Gen Z workers grows, it is anticipated that they could bring greater diversity to workplaces and facilitate more inclusive and supportive employer attitudes and behaviors. 80, 171, 172 The positive impact of Gen Z workers on workplaces can stem from several factors. First, Gen Zs report higher educational attainment, on average, than previous generations and are characterized as digital natives-the first generation to be born into an era where advanced digital technologies are commonplace. 168, 173, 174 Second, Gen Zs are also the most racially diverse generation in the workforce. 175 An analysis of US census data showed that Gen Zs are more likely to belong to a racial or ethnic minority group (48%) when compared to Millennials (39%) or Baby Boomers (18%). 173 Third, the career trajectory of Gen Zs is more likely to have been shaped by the Great Recession and exposure to income inequality when compared to previous generations. 170 Accordingly, studies suggested that Gen Zs are more likely to report valuing employment that provides a higher salary, greater job stability, and access to health benefits compared to previous generations. [168] [169] [170] For instance, a recent survey of over 1531 Gen

Zs found that over three quarters (77%) reported prioritizing employment in an organization whose values align with their own. 168, 170 The growing proportion of Gen Z workers in the labor market could improve working conditions for groups who have been traditionally disadvantaged in the labor market. The literature highlighted that Gen Zs aspire toward being employed in workplaces that value inclusiveness, diversity, and social responsibility and where work environments are accessible to vulnerable groups. [176] [177] [178] Growing numbers of Gen Zs within the labor market could also motivate employers to implement organizational policies that support work-life balance, access to work-from-home arrangements, and environmental sustainability practices that could be beneficial to all workers, especially those that experience vulnerability. [179] [180] [181] [182] [183] [184] Also, some research suggested that Gen Zs may also be more likely to encourage their employers to provide on-the-job skills development and training opportunities so that they may develop competencies that match the speed of innovation and to address the skills divide. 80, 170, 185 3.8 | Trend 8: Populism and the future of work Hypothesized as stemming from both technological advancement and globalization, the future of work could also be shaped by changing sociopolitical sentiment. Literature in the fields of political science, economics, and sociology uncovered in our scan described the impact of populism on the work environment. 186, 187 There is no universal definition of populism. Drawing from the evidence we uncovered, populism can refer to a diverse set of sociopolitical movements that include an antiestablishment orientation, broad anti-elite policies, or the opposition to liberal economics and globalization. 188 Populist sentiments can be held by those across the political spectrum. At the time of this scan, political parties with populist views had grown in several industrialized countries (e.g., the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and the Netherlands). [189] [190] [191] [192] The growth in populist values has been attributed to at least two expected future of work trends that have been previously described in this paper-the digital transformation of the economy and globalization 4.0. 191 Although changes in globalization have contributed to economic benefits for employers and governments, 191 it has also partially contributed to an increased number of jobs being outsourced, offshored, or filled by tele-migrants. [186] [187] [188] Relatedly, advancements in digital technologies and their application within workplaces have meant that an increasing number of jobs have been displaced. 94 Both trends have the potential to contribute to conditions that foster populism, including a decrease in employment opportunities, growing income inequality, and increased perceptions of unfairness, anxiety, and frustration held by a large proportion of the population. 191, 193 The growth in populist views has the potential to contribute to discrimination or labor market exclusion for workers according to their personal characteristics. As highlighted in recent examples within industrialized contexts where populist views have grown, politicians may build a base of supporters by constructing an ingroup and tapping into the grievances of that in-group (e.g., lack of job opportunities, income inequality). The same politician may blame out-groups, often among the most vulnerable segments of the labor market (e.g., racialized minorities, immigrants) for economic hardships faced by the same in-group. 191, 194, 195 Policy responses may result from populist views in ways that may contribute to systems of exclusion from higher quality employment opportunities (e.g., fulltime and secure employment) for vulnerable workers. 187, 192, 196, 197 Within the literature on the future of work, it has been suggested that growing job losses and automation of employment resulting from advancements in digital technologies and AI applications may increase support for populist political positions. 79, 94 For instance, a recent survey of 1995 Canadian workers examined how exposure to automation and AI could relate to policy preferences. Participants in the study who were more likely to fear job loss as a result of automation or AI were significantly more likely to hold populist views. 94 Given the expected digitization of the future of work highlighted in our scan, populism could continue to limit employment opportunities for some already vulnerable groups.

3.9 | Trend 9: External shocks that accelerate the changing nature of work (the COVID-19 example)

External shocks (e.g., economic recessions or depressions, natural disasters, or pandemics) have the potential to increase the level of change to the nature of work. 198, 199 The impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the availability of jobs and working conditions is a prime example of an external shock that has accelerated trends in the future of work. At the JETHA ET AL.

| 657 time of this study, the COVID-19 pandemic had fast-tracked numerous work-related trends highlighted in this horizon scan, including companies increasing their investment toward diverse digital technologies to sustain productivity while also addressing potential workforce safety concerns (e.g., 3D printing, cloud computing infrastructure, robotics, virtual teleconference software, and AI). [200] [201] [202] [203] An example, is the growth of workfrom-home arrangements. In 2018, labor market estimates suggested that less than one-third of the US workforce reported having previously worked from home and most of those were in higher paying and higher skilled jobs. 204 Immediately following the start of the pandemic, several surveys found that up to two-thirds of US workers had been able to access work-from-home arrangements. 61, 163, 205, 206 Studies indicated that the shift to work-from-home arrangements can have advantages (e.g., flexibility, an opportunity to self-accommodate tasks) and disadvantages (e.g., isolation) for workers. [207] [208] [209] Of significance, the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a disproportionately negative impact on workers who have traditionally experienced vulnerability (e.g., certain racialized communities, low-wage workers, and immigrants). [210] [211] [212] [213] [214] [215] [216] For instance, data from Canada highlighted that in some regions over two-thirds of COVID-19 infections have been experienced by racialized groups. 212 Data from a range of industrialized contexts indicated that some groups of workers were more likely to be employed in jobs with greater risk of exposure to COVID-19 and where health and safety protections and work-fromhome arrangements were less likely to be provided. [217] [218] [219] [220] [221] [222] [223] [224] As an example, a survey of 8572 workers in the United States found that the top quintile of earners was more likely to access a work-from-home arrangement (71%) compared to the bottom quintile of earners (41%). 214 Similarly, certain groups of workers may be more likely to be employed in industries or occupations, which are at a higher risk of displacement as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. 215 The nine trend categories we identified could have benefits for some groups of workers but could also be harmful to others, suggesting that the future of work could be marked by disparity. Of particular concern, some groups of workers may enter the future of work at a position of disadvantage and could lack resources (e.g., barriers to educational attainment or upskilling opportunities) or be exposed to adverse working conditions (e.g., employment in occupations most susceptible to disruption) that impact their ability to navigate the changes to the working world. 236 The potential disadvantages faced by vulnerable workers could result in barriers to accessing resources (e.g., income, health benefits, social support) and may reinforce or even widen existing health and social inequities. Indeed, the future of work represents a critical public health concern. Strategies that ad- Technological innovation can also contribute to job displacement and wage depression for vulnerable workers. Of concern, some workers have the potential to experience a job skills trap where they may be less likely to possess technical competencies, work in occupations with fewer advancement opportunities, and be exposed to system-level barriers to accessing reskilling programs. For instance, studies conducted in the late 1980s and the early 1990s show that the application of personal computers contributed to displacement for those employed in entry-level or mid-level jobs (e.g., data entry clerks) that were more likely to be occupied by vulnerable groups and contributed to income polarization. 32 downturn was more likely to contribute to loss of employment, income inequality, and erosion of standard work opportunities for certain groups of workers (e.g., youth, low-skilled workers). 246 Numerous studies also show that the Great Recession contributed to detrimental physical and mental health consequences that were disproportionately experienced by vulnerable workers, especially in contexts with weak social and health protections. [247] [248] [249] [250] Drawing from the experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic, an external shock (e.g., climate events, periods of recession) has the potential to unexpectedly change the nature of work and impact pathways to health. 199 Continued scanning of new trends is required to capture the dynamics of the changing nature of work and identify the workand health-related impacts of these shocks. Furthermore, within the context of a changing labor market, research is also required to continue to understand social policies and labor protections that can be implemented to ensure that vulnerable workers and workplaces are resilient to unpredictable shocks.

There are strengths and limitations of our study that should be acknowledged. Our horizon scan methodology enabled the research team to synthesize diverse sources of literature on the future of work to identify salient tend categories. Our scan took an inclusive approach to identify peer-reviewed, gray literature and social media sources with implications for vulnerable workers. At the same time, JETHA ET AL.

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we acknowledge that there may be additional trends that can drive change in the nature of work that may not have been detected.

Additionally, our horizon scan aimed to uncover research on how levels of vulnerability may be affected in the future of work and specific groups of workers who may be more likely to experience disadvantage. No one particular group of workers was consistently represented in the literature. As a result, we took a broader perspective toward vulnerability and examined how the future of work could impact work arrangements, work conditions, and broader structural factors that may drive disadvantage. It is important to acknowledge the heterogeneity of experiences of different workers.

Studies are needed to capture the diverse challenges and opportunities for specific groups who have been exposed to vulnerable work conditions (e.g., youth and young adults, women, racialized groups, immigrants, people with disabilities, members of the LGBTQ2+ community, Indigenous persons, and those with low socioeconomic status). Interestingly, several studies identified in our scan found that workers belonging to more than one vulnerable group may face labor market conditions that exacerbate susceptibility to displacement and disadvantage in the future of work. 89, 251 Research applying an intersectional lens could elaborate on the overlapping identities and macrolevel structures that may contribute to inequalities. Lastly, our horizon scan did not identify specific policies or programs that could address the vulnerability in the future of work. Generating applied solutions represents an important next step in the research.

The future of work is an emerging public health concern. Our scan bodies had no role in study design, data collection, data interpretation, or manuscript writing.

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Scoping studies: towards a methodological framework

Humans wanted: how Canadian youth can thrive in the age of disruption

The next generation of emerging global challenges

Global trends: paradox of progress

National Intelligence Council

On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues

Towards more systematic Twitter analysis: metrics for tweeting activities

Twitter and the health reforms in the English National Health Service

Exploring the potential of Twitter as a research tool

What the hashtag? Inform

About the OECD

Technology, jobs and the future of work

Meet Your New Co-Workers -Robots: 9 key factors contributing to this burgeoning trend

Autonomous Trucks and the Future of the American Trucker. California: UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education

Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets

Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work

remote-work-is-more-than-a-job-perk-for-people-with-chronicillness-its-life-changing-a61d34aead6c#:%7E:text=Top% 20highlight

Machine learning and meaningful careers: increasing the number of women in STEM

The future of work: Reskilling and remote working to recover in the 'next normal

What is semantic interoperability in IoT and why is it important?

Employees at this company work on a virtual reality island

Policy Horizons Canada. The Next Digital Economy

Good gig, bad gig: autonomy and algorithmic control in the global gig economy

A typology of crowdwork platforms

Are Robots Competing for Your Job? The New Yorker

A gender lens on the future of work

It's More Appropriate for Men": Management and worker perceptions of the gendered ideal worker

Bridging the Digital Gender Divide: Include, Upskill, Innovate

Beyond the precariat: race, gender, and labor in the taxi and Uber economy

Why are fewer teenagers taking summer jobs? (Clue: it's not because they're lazy). August World Economic Forum in collaboration with the Conversation

Jobs lost, jobs gained: workforce transitions in a time of automation

The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

On the Welfare Implications of Automation. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group

The Talented Mr. Robot: The Impact of Automation on Canda's Workforce. Brookfield Institute for Innovation+ Entrepreneurship

Automation and new tasks: How technology displaces and reinstates labor

Computers and populism: artificial intelligence, jobs, and politics in the near term

Generation Z enters the workforce: Generational and technological challenges in entrylevel jobs

AI Is Coming for Your Most Mind-Numbing Office Tasks. Wired, Business Section

What Jobs are Affected by AI? Better-Paid, Better-Educated Workers Face the Most Exposure

How hard will the robots make us work. The Verge

The impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market

Sizing the prize: What's the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise? PwC

Superteams: putting AI in the group. UK: Deloitte

Will AI Take Your Job-or Make It Better. Wired, Business Section

Every study we could find on what automation will do to jobs, in one chart

The future of work in Black America

Indigenous peoples and mine automation: An issues paper

Where you live in the US can tell you how likely your job is to be automated

On the Welfare Implications of Automation

The Impact of Robots on the U.S. Labor Market

Automation, AI and Anxiety: Policy Preferred

Low-skill and high-skill automation

Women's employment, segregation and skills in the future of work

Women and the Future of Work

Machine Learning and Chatbots are Changing The Future of HCM: HR as an industry is evolving

This robot could be conducting your next job interview. March Global Agenda

Hiring Algorithms Raise questions of validity and bias. US News and World Report Web site

Artificial Intelligence Has Become A Tool For Classifying And Ranking People

The legal and ethical implications of using AI in hiring

This is how AI bias really happens-and why it's so hard to fix

is learning from human. Many humans

What do we do about the biases in AI? Harvard Business Review

Why Amazon's automated hiring tool discriminated against women

Amazon scraps secret AI recruiting tool that showed bias against women

Artificial intelligence poses new threat to equal employment opportunity. Forbes

Technology in staffing

The robots are coming for your job! Why digital literacy is so important for the jobs of the future. The Conversation

Digital Literacy in a Digital Age

Future-proof: Preparing young Canadians for the future of work

Future-proofing the workforce: why digital literacy is key

How job seekers can combat automation and temp work

Census Papers. Canberra: Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research

Fewer students are going to college. Here's why that matters

AI will change every job and increase demand for creative skills

The Path to Prosperity: Why the Future of Work is Human

Jobs of tomorrow: mapping opportunity in the new economy

Beyond hiring: How companies are reskilling to address talent gaps. McKinsey Global Institute

The Great Canadian Skills Mismatch: People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People and MORE. Canada: Miner Management Consultants

Bridging the digital divide in the G20: skills for the new age

Gender differences in science, technology, engineering, mathematics and computer science (STEM) programs at university

Some Assembly Required: STEM Skills and Canada's Economic Productivity

Making the future of work inclusive of people with disabilities. ILO GBDN and Fundacioń ONCE

Back to the future of women in technology: insights from understanding the shortage of women in innovation sectors for managing corporate foresight

A gender analysis of the occupational pathways of STEM graduates in Canada. Analytical studies branch research paper series

Will robots really steal our jobs? An international analysis of the potential long term impact of automation. PricewaterhouseCoopers

As labor pool shrinks, prison time is less of a hiring hurdle. The New York Times

Top 10 workplace trends for 2019. HR News

Globalization 4.0: Shaping a new global architecture in the age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: A call for engagement

Globalization is close to its 'holy cow' moment. Chicago Booth Review

The Rise of the Machines: How Computers Have Changed Work

Globalization, robots, and universal basic income: Jason Furman on the future of work

Globalization 4.0 must build a better world for working people

is all about 'Globalization 4.0.' So what is that?

The decline of the US labor share

The IPCC Report Isn't a Death Knell

Climate change: Greenhouse gas levels hit record high 'with no sign of slowdown', UN warns

Key indicators of Arctic climate change

Working on a warmer planet: The effect of heat stress on productivity and decent work

Policy Horizons Canada. Canada 2030: Scan of Emerging Issues-Sustainability, PH4-165/3-2016E-PDF. Canada: Government of Canada

Aggravating resource scarcity

Global Change Research Program. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment

The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate

How the climate crisis is killing us

Frequently asked questions on climate change and jobs

Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat

Canada's Changing Climate Report

Worker health and safety and climate change in the Americas: issues and research needs

Council of Canadian Academies. Canada's Top Climate Change Risks: The Expert Panel on Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Potential

How climate change impacts the economy. State of the Planet

Flight attendants know the real job killer isn't the Green New Deal. It's climate change

Clean energy fast track to employment growth in Canada, study says. Tor Star

Job killer or job creator? Experts predict a climate employment boom: Don Pittis. CBC News Online

The fast lane: Tracking the energy revolution 2019

AgriTech: 3+ ways we plan to feed the future. Interesting Engineering

Is transforming agriculture. Forbes

Scientists are contemplating a 1,000-year space mission to save humanity. One Zero

Geoengineer the planet? More scientists now say it must be an option. YaleEnvironment360. Yale School of the Environment

Confronting solar geoengineering: What you need to know. Union of Concerned Scientists

The rise of biodesign-Growing our way to a more sustainable future

Switzerland: International Labour Organization Geneva

Indigenous people are already working "Green Jobs"-but they're unrecognized and unpaid. The Intercept_Voices

Making the future of work inclusive of people with disabilities

Geoengineering's gender problem could put the planet at risk. Wired, Science

Renewable inequity? Women's employment in clean energy in industrialized, emerging and developing economies

Engaging the Workforce of the Future

Why Millennials are Job Hopping. Gallup

Understanding Generation Z in the workplace

Generation Z's job interests lie in future-proof jobs

Baby Boomers are staying in the labor force at rates not seen in generations for people their age

Early Benchmarks Show 'Post-millennials' on Track to be Most Diverse, Best-educated Generation Yet: A Demographic Portrait of Today's 6-to 21-year-olds

Move over millennials, generation Z workers are coming to town

Welcome to Generation Z. Deloitte Network of Executive Women

OK boomer' marks the end of friendly generational relations. The New York Times

Generation Z looks a lot like millennials on key social and political issues

Here's what you need to know about Gen Z, boss

Preparing for the next generation: profiles of Millennial City managers and their approach to the job. State Local Govern Rev

Why millennials have the power to change the workplace -for good. Fortune: Rikleen Institute for Strategic Leadership

Young people are going to save us all form office life

How young people are shaping the future of sustainable fashion

5 things to know about Gen Z employees and sustainability. Green Biz

Make way for Generation Z in the workplace

Generation Z wants these 10 things in a job

Brexit, populism, and the future of British democracy

International human resource management in an era of political nationalism

Populism and the economics of globalization

Political Polarization in the American Public

Rise of the Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election

Demand and Supply of Populism. Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance

Populism is morphing in insidious ways. The Atlantic

Why Canadians need to wake up about populism

The next populist revolution will be Latino

It's s all their Fault'. Immigrants as scapegoats and a mirror revealing social contradictions

Working-class whites can't handle their status as 'the new minority'. The Washington Post

Emotional roots of right-wing political populism

Recession Of Historic Proportions

What the COVID-19 employment crisis tells us about the future of work. CBC News Online

Amid the covid-19 pandemic, shifting business priorities. MIT Technology Review

the coronavirus create a more progressive society or a more dystopian one? The New Yorker

A worldwide hackathon': Hospitals turn to crowdsourcing and 3D printing amid equipment shortages

Robots welcome to take over, as pandemic accelerates automation

Telecommuting will likely continue long after the pandemic. Brookings; 2020

Workers Discovering Affinity for Remote Work

Covid-19 and the workforce. The global AI agenda series

What can we learn from the COVID-19 pandemic about how people experience working from home and commuting? Centre for Urban Studies

Telework after COVID: a "silver lining" for workers with disabilities?

The impact of pandemic COVID-19 in workplace

Low-income workers disproportionally affected by COVID-19

Reopening America: Low-wage workers have suffered badly from COVID-19 so policymakers should focus on equity. The Brookings Institute

People of colour make up 66% of Ottawa's COVID-19 cases. CBC News Online

COVID-19: How governments can protect vulnerable workers Global Agenda

Class and COVID: how the less affluent face double risks. Middle Class Memos

How the coronavirus could create a new working class. The Atlantic

Financial and health impacts of COVID-19 vary widely by race and ethnicity. Facttank

Frontline workers. EuroGender

Coronavirus is revealing the gig economy's sharp inequalities. MIT Technology Review

Why coronavirus will deepen the inequality of our suburbs. The Conversation

The impact of Covid-19 on gender equality

Women Are Bearing the Brunt of the Covid-19 Economic Pain. Bloomberg Opinion

Covid-19 and the social determinants of health: what do we know?

Canada's Covid-19 blind spots on race, immigration and labour. Policy Options; 2020

Distributional risks associated with nonstandard work: Stylised work and policy considerations. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Women bear brunt of coronavirus economic shutdown in UK and US. The University of Cambridge

Location data says it all: staying at home during coronavirus is a luxury

Azcue X COVID-19 and gender equality: Countering the regressive effects

Latinos hardest hit by coronavirus job losses, with a staggering 18.9% unemployed. NBCNewscom. 2020

UK youth employment prospects crumbling' in coronavirus crisis. The Guardian

Lives and livelihoods: Assessing the near-term impact of COVID-19 on US workers

Canadian workforce unevenly protected from COVID-19. Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives Behind the numbers Web site

Wherry A One country, two pandemics: what COVID-19 reveals about inequality in Canada. CBC News Online

Division of Current Employment Statistics. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age

About Half of Lower-Income Americans Report Household Job or Wage Loss Due to COVID-19. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center

Would-be autocrats are using covid-19 as an excuse to grab more power

Employment Outlook 2019: The future of work. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Lousy and lovely jobs: the rising polarization of work in Britain

Expected Skills Needs for the Future of Work

Economic Policy Institute

Precarious work in times of the economic recession and voting for populist radical right parties

Urban Health: Global Perspectives

Globalization and the rise of precarious employment: the new frontier for workplace health promotion

Labour market policies, poverty and insecurity

Why Canadians should care about the global care economy. Open Canada

The Talent Shortage. ManpowerGroup; 2020

The Great Recession and the distribution of household income

Health impacts of the great recession: a critical review

Effects of the great recession: health and well-being

The rise of neoliberalism: how bad economics imperils health and what to do about it

Financial crisis, austerity, and health in Europe

The precarious nature of work in the context of canadian immigration: an intersectional analysis

Fragmentation in the future of work: A horizon scan examining the impact of the changing nature of work on workers experiencing vulnerability