key: cord-0878294-n6z0r08o authors: Kontopantelis, E.; Mamas, M. A.; Deanfield, J.; Asaria, M.; Doran, T. title: Excess mortality in England and Wales during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic date: 2020-05-26 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.26.20113357 sha: 9e192bc1c78a6cb4b4a35b7d12c4592d2ade5dec doc_id: 878294 cord_uid: n6z0r08o Background Deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic result directly from infection and exacerbation of other diseases and indirectly from deferment of care for other conditions, and are socially and geographically patterned. We quantified excess mortality in regions of England and Wales during the pandemic, for all causes and for non-COVID-19 associated deaths. Methods Weekly mortality data for 1 Jan 2010 to 1 May 2020 for England and Wales were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Mean-dispersion negative binomial regressions were used to model death counts based on pre-pandemic trends and exponentiated linear predictions were subtracted from: i) all-cause deaths; and ii) all-cause deaths minus COVID-19 related deaths for the pandemic period (07-13 March to 25 April to 8 May). Findings Between 7 March and 8 May 2020, there were 47,243 (95%CI: 46,671 to 47,815) excess deaths in England and Wales, of which 9,948 (95%CI: 9,376 to 10,520) were not associated with COVID-19. Overall excess mortality rates varied from 49 per 100,000 (95%CI: 49 to 50) in the South West to 102 per 100,000 (95%CI: 102 to 103) in London. Non-COVID-19 associated excess mortality rates ranged from -1 per 100,000 (95%CI: -1 to 0) in Wales (i.e. mortality rates were no higher than expected) to 26 per 100,000 (95%CI: 25 to 26) in the West Midlands. Interpretation The COVID-19 pandemic has had markedly different impacts on the regions of England and Wales, both for deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 infection and for deaths resulting from the national public health response. The COVID-19 pandemic began in Hubei Province, China towards the end of 2019, and the first confirmed cases in Britain were recorded on January 31 2020. As of 21 May 2020 there were 158,488 confirmed cases in England and Wales and 33,081 deaths in people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. 1 In addition to increased risks for men, older age groups, 2 and people with long term conditions such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes, it was clear from the earliest stages of the pandemic that the consequences of the outbreak would be more severe for some social groups, generally those already most affected by health inequalities. In mid-April, deaths involving COVID-19 in England ranged from 25 per 100,000 in the most affluent 10% of areas to 55 per 100,000 in the most deprived 10%, following the same social gradient as pre-pandemic all cause death rates. 3 Similar patterns emerged in Wales. Ethnic minority groups were also disproportionately affected, with mortality rates in for Bangladeshi and Pakistani ethnicity over three times higher than for White, and rates for Black ethnicity over four times higher. 4 To some extent, these variations may reflect baseline health inequalities across society, but social deprivation also appears to increase susceptibility to COVID infection specifically, through factors including overcrowding, working in a key service or agricultural industry, or having serious underlying medical conditions that increase the risk of COVID-related mortality. The COVID-19 pandemic has also generated geographic patterns of impact that interact in complex ways with social patterns. London, a major international gateway, was the first area to be substantially affected and as of mid-May was the region with the highest number of confirmed cases. However, in terms of the confirmed infection rate, London was quickly overtaken by other regions; by 13 May, COVID-19 rates ranged from 128 per 100,000 in the South West to 348 per 100,000 in the North East, 1 and hospital admission rates remained highest in the northern regions, 5 where baseline health tends to be poorer. 6 In addition to the impact of the virus itself, a second epidemic emerged as a result of the public health response. Many of the excess deaths during the pandemic are not associated with COVID-19 infection, 7 and although this may be partly attributable to underdiagnosis, it raises the possibility that creating emergency capacity in primary and secondary care has compromised essential care. Patients have also avoided healthcare providers out of concern for service pressures or fear of infection, leading to delay of treatment and increases in out-of-hospital events such as cardiac arrest. 8 9 If these non-COVID-19 excess deaths are also socially and geographically patterned, the consequences for health inequalities could be severe. To begin to address this issue, in this study we aimed to quantify excess mortality in England and Wales during the pandemic, as an aggregate and by region and age group, for all causes and for non-COVID-19 associated deaths. Short term trends in excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic have not followed typical regional patterns for premature mortality in England and Wales, particularly for deaths not directly attributable to the virus. Some regions where mortality rates tend to be low, for example the South East and East, have had relatively high rates of non-COVID-19 related deaths. Predicting longer-term impacts requires caution, but given the sudden and comprehensive re-prioritisation of services, it is likely that a second wave of non-COVID-19 related need is currently building in the community. When this breaks it could overwhelm parts of the NHS, and communities with high baseline levels or morbidity are likely to be hit harder than others and this should be recognised in planning post-pandemic health and social care services. 24 The national response will need to address local variations in viral activity, in health and social care provision, and in pandemic preparedness, including management of 'routine' care during a national emergency. It will also need to address long-standing structural disadvantages that expose parts of the country to avoidable harm from both chronic and acute infectious disease. . (.,.) 1757 (1730,1784) Age groups † All <1 6 (2,10) . (.,.) 284 (271, 297) All 45 . (.,.) 20173 (19975, 20370) Males <1 . (.,.) 143 (133, 153) Males . (.,.) 142 (137, 147) Females . (.,.) 47243 (46671, 47815) *week first COVID-19 related deaths were officially reported † Sums across age groups and regions do not necessarily correspond to the England-Wales aggregate (due to missing postcodes or ages for some deaths and different models used across population strata) 13 (11, 14) 20 (18, 21) 19 (18, 20) 13 (12, 13) 5 (4, 5) . (.,.) 79 (78, 80) Regions † North East 0 (0,1) -1 (-2,-1) 0 (-1,1) 8 (7, 9) 11 (9, 12) 22 (21, 24) 20 (19, 21) 14 (13, 15) 9 (8, 10) . (.,.) 83 (82, . (.,.) 70 (70,71) East Midlands -1 (-2,0) 0 (-1,1) 1 (0,1) 7 (6, 8) 11 (9, 12) 15 (13, 16) 16 (16,17) 11 (10, 12) 5 (3, 6) . ( . (.,.) 97 (96,98) East 0 (-1,1) -2 (-3,-1) 1 (0,2) 9 (8, 10) 12 (11, 14) 20 (19, 22) 18 (17,19) 14 (13, 14) 4 (3, 5) . (.,.) 77 (76, 77) London -1 (-1,0) 0 (0,1) 4 (3, 5) 17 (17,18) 20 (20, 21) 26 (25,27) 20 (20, 21) 11 (11, 12) 4 (3, 4) . (.,.) 102 (102, 103) South East 0 (-1,1) 0 (-1,0) 3 (2,4) 7 (7, 8) 10 (9, 11) 16 (14, 17) 18 (17,19) 14 (13, 15) 4 (2,5) . (.,.) 72 (71, 73) South West -1 (-2,0) -1 (-1,0) 0 (-1,1) 7 (6, 8) 7 (5, 9) 13 (10, 14) 14 (13, 15) 7 (6, 8) 3 (1, 4) . (.,.) 49 (49,50) Wales -1 (-3,0) 1 (0,2) 2 (1,3) 7 (6, 9) 7 (6, 9) 16 (14, 17) 14 (13, 15) 8 (7, 9) 2 (1,3) . (.,.) 55 (55, 56) Age groups † . ( . (.,.) 118 (117, 119) All 75-84 -4 (-7,0) -2 (-5,1) 8 (5, 11) . (.,.) 162 (161, 164) Males 75-84 122 (115, 128) 117 (112, 121) 67 (63, 71) 25 (20, 30) . (.,.) . (.,.) 21 (21, 22) Females 65-74 -1 (-2,0) 1 (0,2) 1 (0,2) 11 (9, 12) 13 (12, 14) 19 (17, 21) 17 (16,17) 11 (9, 12) 5 (3, 6) . (.,.) 76 (75, 77) 74 (71, 76) 49 (46, 52) 16 (12, 20) . (.,.) 291 (289, 294) Females 85+ -28 (-49,-8) -26 (-45,-9) 4 (-9,15) 99 (81, 117) 148 (122, 172) 313 (285,339) 318 (300,334) 241 (225, 257) 104 (90, 117 ) . (.,.) 1173 (1160, 1186) *week first COVID-19 related deaths were officially reported † Sums across age groups and regions do not necessarily correspond to the England-Wales aggregate due to missing postcodes or ages for some deaths and different models used across population strata) . (.,.) -18 (-45,9) Age groups † All <1 6 (2,10) . ( . (.,.) -1 (-3,1) Males 01-14 . ( . (.,.) 8 (6, 10) Females 01-14 . ( . (.,.) 3250 (3124,3377) *week first COVID-19 related deaths were officially reported † Sums across age groups and regions do not necessarily correspond to the England-Wales aggregate due to missing postcodes or ages for some deaths and different models used across population strata) . (.,.) 0 (0,0) . (.,.) 6 (6,7) All 65-74 . (.,.) 0 (-1,0) Males 01-14 . (.,.) 0 (0,0) Males 45-64 . ( . (.,.) Females 01-14 . ( *week first COVID-19 related deaths were officially reported † Sums across age groups and regions do not necessarily correspond to the England-Wales aggregate due to missing postcodes or ages for some deaths and different models used across population strata) Figure 1 : All-cause excess mortality by region, ranked by highest to lowest total. Figure 2: All-cause excess mortality per 100,000 population by region, ranked by highest to lowest total. . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 26, 2020. . https://doi.org/ 10.1101/2020.05.26.20113357 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 3 : All-cause minus COVID-19 related excess mortality by region, ranked by highest to lowest total. Figure 4 : All-cause minus COVID-19 related excess mortality per 100,000 population by region, ranked by highest to lowest total. . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 26, 2020. 1 England-Wales aggregates 1.1 Time trend Excluding deaths where the underlying cause of death has been recorded as respiratory (ICD-10 codes J00-J99), and excluded deaths at age under 28 days. Underlying cause of death, as reported in England and Wales, is compatible with WHO recommendations using ICD rules (with small changes in 2011 and 2014), and is obtained from the death certificate. The underlying cause of death is defined by the WHO as the disease or injury that initiated the series of events that led directly to death, or the circumstances of the accident or violence that produced the fatal injury (ONS 2020). Excluding deaths where COVID19 was mentioned in the death certificate (ICD10 U07.1 and U07.2). A condition mentioned in the death certificate may be the main reason or a contributory reason to the cause of death. Excluding deaths where the underlying cause of death has been recorded as respiratory (ICD-10 codes J00-J99), and excluded deaths at age under 28 days. Underlying cause of death, as reported in England and Wales, is compatible with WHO recommendations using ICD rules (with small changes in 2011 and 2014), and is obtained from the death certificate. The underlying cause of death is defined by the WHO as the disease or injury that initiated the series of events that led directly to death, or the circumstances of the accident or violence that produced the fatal injury (ONS 2020). Deaths per 100k population 3 All-cause excess deaths, per 100, 000 population, from 2020 week 1 COVID-19) in the UK. 2020 Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation: deaths occurring between 1 March and 17 Coronavirus (COVID-19) related deaths by ethnic group Virus persisting at higher rate in north of England North-South disparities in English mortality1965-2015: longitudinal population study Epidemiology of multimorbidity and implications for health care, research, and medical education: a cross-sectional study Geographical epidemiology of health and overall deprivation in England, its changes and persistence from 2004 to 2015: a longitudinal spatial population study All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2019 week 1 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2020 week 1 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2019 week 1 25 25 NE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 . 25 26 NE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2019 week 1 . 26 27 NE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2020 week 1 . 26 28 NW Mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 YatH Mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 YatH Mortality time trend and model YatH Mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 YatH all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 YatH all-cause excess deaths, from 2019 week 1 YatH all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 YatH all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from YatH all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 YatH all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 40 52 EMD all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 40 53 EMD all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 45 61 WMD all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 45 62 WMD all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 48 67 East all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 East all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 East all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 East all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2020 week 1 London Mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 London Mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 London Mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 London all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 London all-cause excess deaths, from 2019 week 1 London all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 London all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from London all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 London all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 60 88 SE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 . . 60 89 SE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 67 101 SE Mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 Wales Mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 Wales all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 Wales all-cause excess deaths, from 2019 week 1 Wales all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 Wales all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from Wales all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Wales all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 All age group mortality time trends, from 2010 week 1 All age group mortality time trends All age group mortality time trends, from 2020 week 1 All < 1 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All < 1 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All < 1 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All < 1 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All < 1 all-cause excess deaths All < 1 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from All < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 All < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 All 01-14 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 01-14 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 01-14 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 15-44 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 15-44 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 15-44 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 65-74 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 65-74 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 65-74 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 75-84 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 75-84 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 75-84 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 85+ mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 85+ mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 85+ mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 85+ all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 85+ all-cause excess deaths All 85+ all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Male age group mortality time trends Male age group mortality time trends Male age group mortality time trends Males < 1 mortality time trend and model, from Males < 1 mortality time trend and model Males < 1 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 wk1 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 wk1 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 wk1 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Males 01-14 mortality time trend and model, from Males 01-14 mortality time trend and model 117 190 Males 01-14 all-cause excess deaths, from Males 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from Males 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 15-44 mortality time trend and model, from Males 15-44 mortality time trend and model 123 201 Males 15-44 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 wk1 Males 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from Males 45-64 mortality time trend and model Males 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 wk1 128 209 Males 45-64 all-cause excess deaths Males 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 65-74 mortality time trend and model, from Males 65-74 mortality time trend and model 132 217 Males 65-74 all-cause excess deaths, from Males 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 75-84 mortality time trend and model, from Males 75-84 mortality time trend and model 138 228 Males 75-84 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 wk1 Males 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 85+ mortality time trend and model Males 85+ mortality time trend and model Males 85+ mortality time trend and model Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 wk1 Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 wk1 Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 147 243 Female age group mortality time trends, fm 2020 wk1 Females < 1 mortality time trend and model, fm Females < 1 mortality time trend and model Females < 1 mortality time trend and model, fm 2020 wk1 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths, fm 2010 wk1 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths, fm 2020 wk1 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, fm 2020 wk1152 253 Females 01-14 mortality time trend and model, fm User guide to mortality statistics 10 2 Mortality time trend, from 2019 week 1 All-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All-cause excess deaths, from 2019 week 1 All-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2019 week 1 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2020 week 1 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2019 week 1 25 25 NE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 . 25 26 NE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2019 week 1 . 26 27 NE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2020 week 1 . 26 28 NW Mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 YatH Mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 YatH Mortality time trend and model YatH Mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 YatH all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 YatH all-cause excess deaths, from 2019 week 1 YatH all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 YatH all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from YatH all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 YatH all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 40 52 EMD all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 40 53 EMD all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 45 61 WMD all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 45 62 WMD all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 48 67 East all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 East all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 East all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 East all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2020 week 1 London Mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 London Mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 London Mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 London all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 London all-cause excess deaths, from 2019 week 1 London all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 London all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from London all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 London all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 60 88 SE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from 2010 week 1 . . 60 89 SE all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 67 101 SE Mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 Wales Mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 Wales all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 Wales all-cause excess deaths, from 2019 week 1 Wales all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 Wales all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from Wales all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Wales all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 All age group mortality time trends, from 2010 week 1 All age group mortality time trends All age group mortality time trends, from 2020 week 1 All < 1 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All < 1 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All < 1 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All < 1 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All < 1 all-cause excess deaths All < 1 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, from All < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 All < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 All 01-14 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 01-14 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 01-14 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 15-44 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 15-44 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 15-44 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 65-74 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 65-74 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 65-74 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 75-84 mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 75-84 mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 75-84 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 85+ mortality time trend and model, from 2010 week 1 All 85+ mortality time trend and model, from 2019 week 1 All 85+ mortality time trend and model, from 2020 week 1 All 85+ all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 week 1 All 85+ all-cause excess deaths All 85+ all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 All 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from All 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 All 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Male age group mortality time trends Male age group mortality time trends Male age group mortality time trends Males < 1 mortality time trend and model, from Males < 1 mortality time trend and model Males < 1 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 wk1 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 wk1 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 wk1 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Males < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Males 01-14 mortality time trend and model, from Males 01-14 mortality time trend and model 117 190 Males 01-14 all-cause excess deaths, from Males 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from Males 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 15-44 mortality time trend and model, from Males 15-44 mortality time trend and model 123 201 Males 15-44 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 wk1 Males 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from Males 45-64 mortality time trend and model Males 45-64 mortality time trend and model, from 2020 wk1 128 209 Males 45-64 all-cause excess deaths Males 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 65-74 mortality time trend and model, from Males 65-74 mortality time trend and model 132 217 Males 65-74 all-cause excess deaths, from Males 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 75-84 mortality time trend and model, from Males 75-84 mortality time trend and model 138 228 Males 75-84 all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 wk1 Males 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 85+ mortality time trend and model Males 85+ mortality time trend and model Males 85+ mortality time trend and model Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths, from 2010 wk1 Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths, from 2020 wk1 Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), from Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 Males 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 147 243 Female age group mortality time trends, fm 2020 wk1 Females < 1 mortality time trend and model, fm Females < 1 mortality time trend and model Females < 1 mortality time trend and model, fm 2020 wk1 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths, fm 2010 wk1 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths, fm 2020 wk1 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19 Females < 1 all-cause excess deaths minus COVID19, fm 2020 wk1152 253 Females 01-14 mortality time trend and model, fm 154 255 Females 01-14 mortality time trend and model, fm 2020 wk1 Females 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm Females 01-14 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm 159 264 Females 15-44 mortality time trend and model, fm 2020 wk1 Females 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm Females 15-44 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm 164 273 Females 45-64 mortality time trend and model, fm 2020 wk1 Females 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm Females 45-64 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm 169 282 Females 65-74 mortality time trend and model, fm 2020 wk1 Females 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm Females 65-74 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm 174 291 Females 75-84 mortality time trend and model, fm 2020 wk1 Females 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm Females 75-84 all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm Females 85+ mortality time trend and model, fm Females 85+ mortality time trend and model Females 85+ mortality time trend and model, fm 2020 wk1 Females 85+ all-cause excess deaths, fm 2010 wk1 Females 85+ all-cause excess deaths, fm 2019 wk1 Females 85+ all-cause excess deaths, fm 2020 wk1 Females 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm Females 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19), fm Females 85+ all-cause excess deaths (−COVID19 User guide to mortality statistics Authors' Names May 21, 2020 Contents 1 All-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 2 2 All-cause minus COVID-19 related excess deaths, from 2020 week 1 43 All-cause excess deaths, per 100, 000 population, from 2020 week 1 64 All-cause excess deaths minus COVID-19 related, per 100, 000 population, from 2020 week 1 8 1 1 All-cause excess deaths, from 2020 week 1