key: cord-0870842-4knv9evj
authors: Yao, Huizong; Zuo, Xiaoxing; Zuo, Daxing; Lin, Han; Huang, Ximeng; Zang, Chuanfu
title: Study on soybean potential productivity and food security assessment in China under the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak
date: 2020-06-24
journal: nan
DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2020.06.002
sha: 275fb677ce13f91b65606f579025dbd57fe86c41
doc_id: 870842
cord_uid: 4knv9evj

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak suddenly broke out globally in 2020. Pressure from the blockade and ban on food exports are starting to affect agricultural supply chains, it has led to a rapid rise in global food prices. As many grain exporting countries announced a ban on grain exports, food security issues in China have attracted great international attention. This study builds the Suitability Distribution Model and Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model to explore the relationship between soybean production potential and food security. As a result, the soybean potential planting area in China is 164.3 million ha. If the outbreak prevents China from importing soybeans, the soybean planting area will need to be increased by 6.9 times to satisfy the demands. In the meantime, the cereal self-sufficiency rate will drop to 63.4%, which will greatly affect food security. Each additional unit of soybean production will reduce 3.9 units of cereals, and 1% increase in the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans will result in a 0.63% drop in cereals. It is not sustainable to sacrifice cereal to grow soybeans and to rely heavily on imports. But to ensuring the cereal security, the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans is difficult to exceed 42%. China still need to import more than 68% of the original import volume of soybean. In the short term, the outbreak will not affect food security in China, but as soybean imports decrease, insufficient supply of soybeans will affect people's quality of life. To prevent the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, China should increase soybean stocks and strengthen international cooperation in short term. In the long term, increasing the self-sufficiency rate is the fundamental solution to soybean problem, and the key to increasing soybean cultivation is to make soybean cultivation profitable and to build a sustainable soybean planting chain. So, China need to formulate a soybean cultivation strategy prudently.

Huizong Yao 1 , Xiaoxing Zuo 1 , Daxing Zuo 1 , Han Lin 1 , Ximeng Huang 1 , Chuanfu Zang 1* 1 School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou, 510631, China;

In 2020, the infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus (Zhu et al., 2020; Lu et al., 2020 ) rapidly spread through human (Wang et al., 2020) in China and around the world. The novel coronavirus has infected more than 3 million people and killed hundreds of thousands (WHO, 2020). Since then, countries have begun to implement strict control measures. Pressure from the blockade is starting to affect supply chains, such as a slowdown in producing activity and transport activity. These have caused rapid increases in global food prices. Due to the persistence of the epidemic and the spread of panic, many people stocked a large amount of food. Some countries have announced export bans to ensure domestic stability and food security. Vietnam first officially announces suspension of rice export (Vietnam customs, 2020); Some other countries such as Russia, Thailand, Serbia and so on have also proposed temporary food protection measures accordingly. The resulting food security and the supply stability of agricultural products has attracted people's wide attention.

China is the largest food consumer, it has a high rate of self-sufficiency in food, especially cereals, and it will not have food security problems in the short term. However, soybean as main oil source in China, it has a very high degree of external dependence on soybeans.

Therefore, the main problem with food security in China is soybean. China is the largest soybean consumer, while the United States and Brazil are the major soybean producers in the world. For China, 38% of imported soybeans come from the United States and 45% from Brazil ( Fig. 1 ). But the COVID-19 outbreak is extremely serious in soybean-producing countries, including the United States, China, Brazil, and Argentina. If the rapid spread of the epidemic cannot be effectively contained, the global food problem is expected to become more prominent in the coming months. From the perspective of China, the most worrying thing is the soybean security and its sustainable supply. (Yao, 2020) . Specially, the policy -Giving Priority to Major Grains‖ further discouraged the Chinese farmers to plant soybeans (Trac et al., 2013) , and more than 80% of soybeans are imported. Therefore, how to ensure soybean sustainable supply and food security is one of the important challenges of subsidized soybean farmers in 2019 and 2020. However, planting soybeans will occupy the area planted with cereals and have an impact on food security. Especially affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, the food supply in the world is likely to decline and the circulation chain is blocked, so, it is necessary to tradeoff soybean production potential and the relationship between soybean and food security. This study using Soybean Suitability Distribution Model to study the potential productivity of soybeans, and construct the Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model to explore the impact of increased soybean cultivation on food security if agricultural imports are hampered by the outbreak in extreme scenario. Through the trade-off analysis of soybean production and food security, this article aims to provide a reference for soybean sustainable development strategy and food security research in China.

The precipitation data, accumulated temperature data, land-use data and administrative regionalization data of China in this study were obtained from the database of the Resource and Environmental Science Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.resdc.cn/). The accumulated temperature data were selected from the Chinese meteorological background dataset with an annual accumulated temperature≥ 1900℃ when daily temperature ≥10℃. The land use dataset is from the remote sensing monitoring database of Chinese land-use status, and the selected time is 2015. The average temperature data for May came from the China meteorological data network (https://data.cma.cn/).

The data on planting area, production, yield and earning of various crops in China were obtained from the China rural statistical yearbook. Among them, cereals include rice, wheat, corn, barley, sorghum, buckwheat and oats. Soybean import and export data were obtained from the United Nations commodity trade statistics database, the General Administration of Customs of China and Key agricultural products market information platform (http://zdscxx.moa.gov.cn:8080/misportal/public/agricultureIndexRedStyle.jsp). Data on the COVID-19 outbreaks in countries around the world come from the World Health Organization (WHO).

In this paper, according to the necessary conditions for soybean planting and growth (Pan et al., 1984; Yang et al., 2009; He, 2011; He et al., 2020) , the land-use type, precipitation, annual accumulated temperature and growing period temperature were used as the indices for evaluating the suitability of soybean planting areas in China using the limit method.

Land-use type has a significant effect on soil moisture content, organic matter and other physical and chemical properties and has a certain influence on crop cultivation. Because soybean can be planted in both paddy fields and dry lands, cultivated land is classified as a suitable land-use type for soybean cultivation in this paper.

Water is an essential factor in the growth and development of soybean, and precipitation is an important source of water in soybean production. The soybean planting area tends to decrease with precipitation. Without irrigation, it would be difficult to plant soybeans in areas of Northwest China with annual precipitation <250 mm (Pan et al., 1984) . Therefore, precipitation ≥250 mm was used as the minimum precipitation standard for soybean cultivation in this paper.

Heat has a major impact on the distribution of soybeans, and low temperatures can delay flowering, ripening and even growth. When the daily temperature was ≥10 ℃ and the accumulated temperature was above 1900℃, the thermal conditions for soybean growth and development were satisfactory (He, 2011; ) Therefore, the daily temperature ≥10℃ was chosen as the accumulated temperature index, and the annual accumulated temperature which was greater than 1900 ℃ was selected as the lower limit of the accumulated temperature of a suitable soybean cultivation area.

The contribution of mean temperature was largest for soybean (He et al., 2020) . When the temperature is below 12℃ or above 40℃, soybean cannot grow normally. In addition, northern spring soybeans are generally sown from late April to early May (Yang et al., 2009; He et al., 2020) ; thus, the minimum standard for soybean planting was set to be greater than or equal to an average temperature of 12℃ in May (soybean growth month). According to the data, the national average monthly temperature does not typically exceed 40℃ and does not reach the maximum temperature when the soybeans stop growing. Therefore, in China, high temperatures will not become a limiting factor of soybean cultivation and growth; the upper temperature limit was not included in the evaluation system. According to the average temperature of May at each climate station in China, the spatial distribution map of temperature suitability during the growth and development period of soybean was obtained using the kriging interpolation method in the ArcGIS spatial analysis function.

Finally, ArcGIS 10.2 was used to overlay analyze the evaluation results of the above four evaluation indicators.

The soybean remaining planting potential (SRP) is the area of farmland where soybeans can be grown in addition to normal cereal cultivation. It is assumed that all cereals can be grown on farmland, and that cereal production is a priority. In the remaining farmland, the part suitable for planting soybeans is the SRP (Fig. 2-a) . In order to maximize the SRP, cereals are preferentially planted on farms that are not suitable for soybean cultivation ( Fig. 2-b) . SRP can be calculated with the following formula:

In the formula, is SRP, is the suitable total area of soybean, is the total area of farmland, and is the cereal planting area. calculated from the soybean suitability distribution model. According to this formula, the soybean remaining planting potential of various provinces in China can be calculated as Fig.4 . 

The Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model are composed of the Farmland Constraint Line, the Total Output Function of Soybean and Cereal, Soybean-Cereal Production Constraint Line,

Constraint Line. We believe that Chinese agricultural technology progress will be limited in the short term, climate factors will be stable, and production, consumption and imports will remain at normal levels in recent years. The main purpose of this model is to explore the constraints of soybeans and cereals in China and the impact of developing soybean potential on food security. The farmland constraint line is:

In the formula, 1 represents soybean planting area, while 2 is cereals and 0 is others crop. X is total farmland area. The Total Output Function of Soybean and Cereal is as follows:

In the formula, and are constants, its meaning is output per unit area. is the total output of soybeans and cereals, represents different scenarios. When 1 and 2 are most reasonable, is optimum. Based on this, the article studies the relationship between soybean production and food security in four scenarios. Besides, according to Farmland Constraint Line and the relationship between crop area and yield, Soybean-Cereal Production Constraint Line is:

In the formula, 1 , 2 , Y are constants, 1 represents soybean production ( 1 = 1 ), while 2 is cereals ( 2 = 2 ). Equation (4) is derived from equation (2). It is used to reflect the restrictive relationship between soybean and cereal output, and the impact of increase of one unit of soybean output on cereal output. Similarly, Soybean-Cereal Earnings Constraint

Line is as follows:

In the formula, 1 , 2 and E are constants, 1 represents total soybean earnings, which is soybean planting area multiplied by unit area yield, while 2 is cereals. It is used to reflect the restrictive relationship between the total earnings of soybeans and cereals in China.

That is, the impact of earnings changes from planting soybeans on cereal earnings. What's more, Soybean-Cereal Self-Sufficiency Rate Constraint Line is as follows:

In the formula, 1 , 2 and R are constants, 1 represents soybean self-sufficiency rate, which is domestic production divided by consumption, while 2 is cereals. It is used to reflect the restrictive relationship between the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans and cereals in China.

That is, when increase the self-sufficiency of soybean by one unit, how much does the self-sufficiency of cereal go down? Equations (4) ~ (6) are derived from the deformation of equation (2).

Scenario analysis is a method used to describe the uncertainty of future development in a variety of options (Lou, 2012) . Faced with the uncertainty of soybean imports and the severe domestic situation of soybeans, the assessment of the potential productivity of soybeans in different scenarios will help to understand the potential and basis condition of the development of soybeans in China. Scenario A is China cannot import soybeans due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Scenario B is that China can import one-quarter of the original soybean, scenario C is China can import half of the original soybean. Scenario D is China cannot import food including soybean. Substitute the four scenarios into the soybean and cereal constraint model, it can explore soybean potential productivity and reflect the relationship between soybeans and food security in China under the background of the COVID-19 outbreak, thereby laying a foundation for weighing soybean and food security (as graphical abstract).

According to the results of the Soybean Suitability Distribution Model (Fig. 3) , the area suitable for soybean cultivation in China is 164.3 million ha, which has 163.6 million ha in mainland. Suitable areas for soybean cultivation are mainly distributed in the northeastern, central, eastern and southern regions of China, which below to the second and third grades of the terrain ladder, and it is roughly consistent with the monsoon climate range of China. The average yield per unit area of soybeans was 1763.7 kg/ha in the past 19 years. Therefore, it can calculate that potential soybean production is 289.8 million tons. Mongolia and Southwest have increased (Fig. 4) . Heilongjiang, Anhui and Inner Mongolia are the provinces with the most soybean cultivation, of which Heilongjiang accounts for 38.7% of the country. Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, highly concentrated production areas will increase the risk of soybean safety. The SRP in Northeast and Southwest is great (Fig. 4) , so

China can further develop soybean planting potential in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan and so on, and diversify supply risks from concentrated planting. 

Due to the obvious growth trend of soybean and cereal consumption, while the planting area remains stable, it is assumed that the soybean consumption is 103.9 million tons (average of recent 3 years), and its area is 8.9 million ha (Fig. 3, average of recent 19 years) .

The cereal production is 614.7 million tons, and the consumption is 635.9 million tons (average of recent 3 years), and its planting area is 89.1 million ha, while other crops is 61.3million ha (average of recent 19 years). The total farmland area in mainland China is 177.9 million ha ( Fig. 3) , including fallow land and uncultivated land. The average net earnings of 1 hectare of soybeans is 674.4 RMB, while cereals' is 1493.1 RMB in the past 19 years. Based on the above data, we can build the Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model, and study the relationship between soybean production and food security in four scenarios.

In extreme cases, if affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the soybean trade chain is blocked and cannot import soybeans, China need to increase production of 88.9 million tons to balance its supply and demand. Thus, the domestic planting area must increase to 58.2 million ha (Fig. 5) , which is 6.9 times that of the original soybean planting area, accounting for 33% of total farmland area.

Based on the analysis results of soybean total potential productivity, this scenario is theoretically achievable because China has enough arable land suitable for soybean cultivation. However, the large-scale increase of soybeans will inevitably affect the cultivation of food crops, so it is necessary to discuss the impact of soybeans on food security in this scenario. If China does not import any soybeans, and it needs to take up cereal planting area which will decline by 30.7 million ha, and cereal production will decline by 211.6 million tons ( Fig. 5) , cereal self-sufficiency rate will drop to 63.4%. Obviously, not importing soybeans will affect food security.

If embargo and control measures are taken by countries due to the outbreak and affect the soybean supply chain, soybean imports have to adjusted to 25% of the original. In this scenario, China needs to produce 81.7 million tons of soybeans and an additional 30.7 ha of soybean planting area (Fig. 5) . Considering the impact on cereals, cereal planting area will be reduced by 18.2 million ha, which is 20.4% of the total cereal planting area. Besides, the self-sufficiency rate of cereal will be reduced to 76.9%.

If soybean imports have to adjusted to 50% of the original. In this scenario, China needs to produce 59.4 million tons of soybeans to balance supply and demand and an additional 18.3 million ha of soybean planting area (Fig. 5) . Considering the impact on cereals, the self-sufficiency rate of cereal will be reduced to 90.4%. According to Chen's research (2005), when the cereal self-sufficiency rate is greater than 90%, food security will not be threatened in China. But given the possibility of a disruption in the food supply chain during the epidemic and the serious threat it poses, China still needs to import more than half of the original imports.

If embargo and control measures are taken by countries due to the outbreak and affect the food supply chain, all cereal needs self-sufficiency, and all the cultivated land is used for planting, the area of other grains and cash crops is kept unchanged (the average level). The remaining cultivated land is used for soybean planting, so that the soybean planting area can reach 24.4 ha. Therefore, in this scenario, soybean area can increase 1.9 times, and potential soybean production is 43.6 million tons, soybean self-sufficiency rate will rise to 42% (Fig. 5) .

According to the results of the scenario analysis, due to the limited total cultivated area and the huge consumption of soybeans and cereals, it is difficult for China to meet the demand for soybeans and cereals at the same time, and it is necessary to balance them prudently.

According to the Soybean-Cereal Production Constraint Line, China can grow up to 804.1 million tons of cereals or 208.2 million tons of soybeans when the average production of other cash crops remains unchanged. Each additional unit of soybean production in China will result in a 3.9 unit decrease in cereal production ( Fig. 6-a) . Therefore, increasing in soybean cultivation will lead to a faster decline in cereal production, and soybeans have no comparative advantage in production (Yin and Chen, 2019). In addition, soybeans have a lower net earnings than cereals. Assuming that the increased supply of soybeans does not affect the prices of soybeans and cereals under open conditions, then for every unit of soybean income increase in China due to the increase in the number of soybeans, the original cereal earnings will fall by 2.1 units (Fig. 6-b) . Therefore, from the perspective of maximum benefits, soybeans still have no comparative advantage. According to the Soybean-Cereal Self-Sufficiency Rate Constraint Line, for every 1% increase in soybean self-sufficiency rate, the cereal self-sufficiency rate will fall by 0.6% (Fig. 6-c) . When the cereal is completely self-sufficient, the upper limit of soybean self-sufficiency is 42%. Hence, no matter from the perspective of production or trading, there is a big gap between soybeans and major grains in China. But the average cereal self-sufficiency rate in China is over 98.7%, and China has huge cereal reserves, so China will not have food security problems during the COVID-19 outbreak.

However, soybean is still the most threatening agricultural product in China. With the guarantee of self-sufficiency in cereals, it is difficult to increase soybean production and self-sufficiency rate significantly.

The study found that the potential area of soybean cultivation in China is huge, and 92% of the cultivated land is suitable for soybean cultivation. However, as soybeans increase, total food output will decrease. Therefore, how to balance soybean and food security to further develop soybean production potential is a huge challenge for China especially in severe global outbreaks. According to the Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model, China can develop soybean potential from the following aspects:

(1) Adhere to the bottom line of basic farmland and appropriately increase the area of cultivated land in China. In the model, we assume that the value of X (total farmland area) is fixed, but in practice, increasing the value of X will shift the farmland constraint line outward, thereby increasing the potential productivity of soybeans ( Fig. 7-a) .

(2) Increase the yield per unit area of soybeans and cereals. Soybean yield in China is low, with (ratio of output per unit area of soybean to cereal) of only 0.26. Therefore, the development of soybean cultivation technology, large-scale cultivation and denser planting (increase , the output per unit area of soybean) will increase the soybean production ( 1 ) (Fig. 7-b) without affecting the cereal planting area ( 2 ). In addition, higher cereal yields per unit area ( ) also can free up more farmland to grow soybeans (Fig. 7-c) .

(3) Reduce the cultivation of other crops ( 0 ) can free up more farmland ( 1 + 2 ) to increase soybean and cereal production ( Fig. 7-d) . import soybeans at all, cereal production will be reduced by 34.4% and the cereal self-sufficiency rate will drop to 63.4% (Fig.5) , which will greatly affect food security the sustainability of agriculture. Even if only 50% of the original import volume is imported and the cereal self-sufficiency rate drops to 90.4%, food security will not be greatly threatened, but there are still certain risks. In the tradeoff between staple foods and soybeans, staple foods still need to be put in the first place. Therefore, the self-sufficiency of cereals is still a prerequisite for soybean development.

Since the coefficient is larger than in the Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model, under the limited land constraints, planting more soybeans will reduce the total output ( Fig.7-a) . For example, the total output of scenario D is 172.5 million tons higher than that of scenario A. The largest will appear at the intersection of the scenario line and the farmland constraint line (0,116.6), that is, no soybeans are planted. Therefore, soybean is a -Gordian Knot‖ in China's food security. However, China has a huge demand for soybeans. Once the food supply chain is interrupted or blocked due to the COVID-19 outbreak, and soybean imports decrease, soybean prices will rise significantly. At the same time, it will cause the price of soybean products such as soybean oil and the cost of downstream industries such as breeding industry to rise, the price of cereal and other food also to rise. The fluctuation of the food market will increase, and national welfare will decline. Besides, soybean planting takes time to harvest. In the long run, it will ultimately have an impact on the quality of life as soybean imports decline and soybean supplies are reduced for food security. Therefore, planting more soybeans in advance without affecting cereal supply will help balance soybean demand, reduce import dependence and supply disruption due to the COVID-19 outbreak, which is good for increasing the sustainability of soybean supply. In addition, preventing the reduction of can consider occupying other cash crops instead of cereals to increase soybean planting area when necessary (Fig. 7-d) . Therefore, how to make soybeans profitable is another focus of developing soybean potential.

Agricultural land suitability analysis is one of the key tools for ensuring sustainable is very low, the unsustainable and scarce soybean supply fails to meet such a huge demand (Wu et al., 2020) . Therefore, increasing the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans is an important program to achieve sustainable supply of soybeans and sustainable agriculture. However, for every 1% increase in soybean self-sufficiency rate, the cereal self-sufficiency rate will fall by 0.6% (Fig. 6-c) . Therefore, for sustainable agricultural development and food production, This will help China build a sustainable agricultural system and ensure food security. However, the Suitability Distribution Model and scenario analysis in this study mainly use limit methods and need some static assumptions and considers extreme conditions, there is a certain gap with reality. Farmland is used as the land-use type suitable for soybean planting, but farmland can be divided into paddy field and dry land. The difference between paddy field and dry land in this land-use data is whether there is an irrigation water source and irrigation facilities.

Paddy fields can be irrigated normally in a typical year, while dry land is cultivated by natural precipitation. However, the paddy field and dry land have not been discussed separately, and the impacts of different water and temperature conditions on soybean yield have not yet been considered. Second, different scholars use different definitions of the ultimate temperature of soybean growth. The average temperature in May, which is higher than 12°C, represents the limit temperature of soybean growth, but this assumption is worth further refinement and in-depth discussion. In addition, the factors such as farmers' willingness to plant are closely related to market demand, price, and soybean import and export volumes. Therefore, in follow-up research, it will be necessary to further study and discuss the impact of these factors.

What's more, this article mainly analyzes the impact of soybean production potential and food security in China in the context of epidemic control. However, it does not further study how

China can unchoke the food supply chain and improve the food control system, and more extensive research is needed. This study aims to provide a theoretical reference for balancing the development of soybean potential and food supply in the national food security strategy, as well as providing ideas for sustainable agricultural management and sustainable supply chain adjustment.

This paper studies the soybean potential productivity in China, builds the Suitability Distribution Model and Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model and sets up four scenarios to explore the relationship between soybean production potential and food security. The main conclusions are as follows:

1. The soybean consumption in China is huge, with an average of 103.9 million tons in the past three years, but its self-sufficiency rate is only 15%. If outbreak prevent China to import soybean, the soybean planting area will need to be increased by 6.9 times and the cereal self-sufficiency rate will drop to 63.4%. Without affecting the cultivation of cereals, the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans is difficult to be higher than 42%. China still need to import more than 68% of the original import volume of soybean.

2. The soybean total potential productivity in China is very high, the suitable total planting area is 164.3 million ha and production are 289.8 million tons. Each additional unit of soybean production in China will result in a 3.9 unit decrease in cereal production. For every unit of soybean income increase in China due to the increase in the number of soybeans, the original cereal earnings will fall by 2.1 units. For every 1% increase in soybean self-sufficiency rate, the cereal self-sufficiency rate will fall by 0.6%.

3. China will not cause food security problems in the short term. But as soybean imports decrease, soybean demand will be forced to cut. In the long term, increasing soybean self-sufficiency rate and developing the area with high soybean remaining planting potential such as Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan and other areas is still the fundamental way to solve the problem of sustainable soybean supply. Self-Sufficiency Rate Constraint Line. , and represent production, earnings and self-sufficiency rate, respectively, when =1 represents soybean, and =2 represents cereal. 

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We thank native English-speaking editors at American Journal Experts for language polish. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41625001, 31660233).

The authors declare that they have no competing interests. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.