key: cord-0860048-kmumq28r
authors: Kundu, Sudip Kumar; Santhanam, Harini
title: All pain and no gain: Factors impacting local and regional sustainability due to COVID-19 pandemic with respect to the Indian marine fisheries
date: 2021-12-31
journal: Current Research in Environmental Sustainability
DOI: 10.1016/j.crsust.2021.100086
sha: f74c5da8219cb448decc42cfcfcf7445e78c653f
doc_id: 860048
cord_uid: kmumq28r

Monitoring frameworks under a non-disaster scenario can be helpful to identify the various socio-technical constraints of local and regional origin which influence the economics and resources management of marine fisheries. However, local-scale manifestations of regional/global changes due to the rapid onset of a disaster scenario may lead to unprecedented distortion of the market demand-supply value chains for the fisheries sector at shorter temporal scales. The global pandemic of COronaVIrus Disease (COVID-19) provided a unique short, temporal window to study the evolution of socio-economic challenges to sustainable fishing in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), India. The present study provides a detailed multi-source assessment of the factors that lead to massive complications of market disruption beginning with a public curfew on 22nd March 2020, followed by a nationwide complete lockdown of 54 days beginning from 25th March 2020, indicating an “all-pain no-gain” scenario for the fishers. Aggravating factors as a cessation of food services, and the restriction of exports of perishable commodities indicated negative spin-offs for allied activities sectors such as food processing due to low or negligible demand. The present investigation also indicated that as part of rehabilitation, policies related to overfishing are necessary to promote sustainable fishing practices in the BoB region in a post-pandemic period. New policy frameworks must consider the community-centric factors which facilitated the alleviation of the impacts of anthropogenic activities related to fishing and the slow restoration of the demand-supply chain, with long-term benefits for natural resources sustenance and to aid marine conservation efforts.

The unprecedented global crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic has not only affected the global economy but has also impacted the ecosystem services offered by terrestrial and marine ecosystems (Hudson, 2020) . While the containment measures used by various countries to slow down the spread of COVID-19 were primarily meant to reduce the number of fatalities in the absence of effective therapies and vaccines, these restrictions have adversely impacted economic indicators like energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility (Deb et al., 2020) as well the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, in the absence of large-scale fishing operations, the marine environment may have presumably experienced positive impacts such as a reduction in the overfishing, alleviation of the impacts of anthropogenic pollution during the lockdown period which need confirmation from detailed investigations.

The fishery sector in India has been treated as one of the important "farming" sectors for its significant contribution towards ensuring the nation's nutritional security. The fishery sector employs more than 16 million people, out of which nine million active fisherfolk population directly depends on the fisheries for their lives and livelihoods (Department of Fisheries, 2020; MSSRF, 2020a) . Throughout India's history, fish have been treated as one of the major sources of food and since then water bodies along with marine fisheries have been used to serve this purpose (Tummala et al., 2008) . As shown in Fig. 1 , India has an 8118 km long coastline with around 0.53 million km 2 of continental shelf area within a 2.02 million km 2 of exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that is very fertile for marine fisheries (MPEDA, 2018; DADF, 2018) . In terms of marine fish production, India takes the sixth position after China, Indonesia, USA, Russia, and Peru (Department of Fisheries, 2019). Marine fishing of 3.71 million metric tons (MMT) accounts for only 28% to the total fish production of 13.42 MMT during -19 (Department of Fisheries, 2020 . Besides food production, the fisheries sector contributes approximately 1.1% to the total GDP of India (MSSRF, 2020a; Department of Fisheries, 2020) . Foreign exchange earnings from the marine fisheries account for 10% of overall export earnings for India (DARE-ICAR, 2018; Department of Fisheries, 2020) . Specifically, India has exported 1.38 MMT seafood (worth USD 7.08 Billion) during 2017-18 against 1.13 MMT (worth USD 5.78 Billion) during 2016-17 with an annual growth rate of 21.35% in terms of quantity, where frozen shrimp (41.10%) was the major exported item (MPEDA, 2018) . However, the marine fish landing data show a 9% decline in the overall capture in 2018 compared to 2017 while the scenario worsened in 2019 due to the impacts of successive cyclonic events in the eastern coastal regions and reduction in landings in the west coast of India (Vohra, 2020) . Fishing activities are mainly carried out through the traditional/ non-motorised fishing crafts, motorised crafts, and small mechanised crafts. Small-scale fisheries (SSFs) constitute nearly 80% share but suffer from three major issues, namely pricing, marketing, and organization (MSSRF, 2020a) . In recent years, it has been recognised that reliable data on the socio-economic conditions of the marine fishing community is crucial for both the researchers and the planners to develop effective marine fisheries policy, as well as to formulate development plans for the fishers community (CMFRI, 2010) . Traditionally, the marine fishing community had relied on the indicators such as the congregation of birds, the colour of seawater, bubble breaking in the seawater and muddy/oily water on the sea surface to locate potential fishing areas (Miguel and Santos, 2000) . However, the net profit and yields were always lower owing to the unreliability of such methods, as well as the unpredictable weather conditions, affecting the livelihoods of the fishers population frequently (Balasubramanian, 2015) . To reduce the uncertainty and minimize the risk associated with marine fishing, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) developed the scientific expertise and technical capability to provide potential fishing zone (PFZ) and ocean state forecast (OSF) advisories at daily basis except fishing ban period using remote sensing data (George et al., 2014; Balasubramanian, 2015) . PFZ advisory help the fishers to locate large fish shoals with minimal time and fuel consumption; OSF advisory provide timely information on the state of the ocean, with special emphasis on the wind conditions and cyclonic patterns through accurate weather forecasts, imparting a greater sense of security and lesser loss of lives (MSSRF, 2014) . Thus, PFZ and OSF advisories are important means to plan sustainable fishing operations for the Indian scenario. During the span of last two decades of the use of these advisories have provided baseline support for the Indian fishers. However, this status has been challenged by the massive alterations to their lifestyle and economic growth owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and the nationwide lockdown between March 25, 2020 and May 31, 2020. Based on these developments, it is necessary to look closely at the local scenario for the marine fishers who are forced to invest their time and efforts to innovatively and competitively exploit the low or meagre market demands, with low or negligible returns, most often at the cost of the loss of livelihoods.

Under the circumstances, the present study reports the impacts of the first wave of the ongoing pandemic on the fishery sector of India using meticulously compiled information from local and national sources, through dialogues with fishers at a grassroots level, as also the public announcements on changes in the existing policies for trade of seafoods. The aim of such a work is to establish the actual ground conditions observed during the pandemic in India to understand the underlying socio-technical constraints for the communities of marine fishers experienced as a result of a new and unexpected disaster scenario. The results of the qualitative analyses, which are detailed in the subsequent sections, will be useful to formulate appropriate policies to achieve social and economic resilience under futuristic pandemic/disaster scenarios.

Two important developments which have significantly affected the livelihoods of the marine fishers at a local-scale due to the pandemic scenario are discussed in this section as follows: I. The cessation of regular operations of the fishery industries due to lockdown which prohibited the Indian marine fishers from venturing into the sea for fishing. II. This was followed by the onset of the fishing ban period from mid-April to mid-June 2020 which extended the repercussions of the lockdown on fish. Fig. 2 shows the developments in India in light of the pandemic and the specific impacts on the marine fishery sector. During the nation-wide strict lockdown of 21 days since March 25, 2020, the fishing expedition was totally closed as per the government regulations while INCOIS also stopped disseminating the PFZ and OSF advisories. During this time period, 80% of the total Indian workforces associated with marine fisheries became jobless due to the stoppages of transportation and all other fishing related activities, while some relaxation on the ban of economic activities including marine fisheries was provided after April 9, 2020 (CGIAR, 2020).

Further, the SSFs are the dominant suppliers of fish at a cheap rate to the local consumers to meet the source of protein across almost all maritime nations (Knight et al., 2020) . More significantly, the COVID-19 pandemic has come in the prime time for the traditional fishers when the 'diverse spring catches' usually contribute to enhanced incomes, followed by the lag-phases due to the monsoon and fishing ban period (CGIAR, 2020). Thus, assessing the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 scenario on the marine and coastal ecosystems at local and regional scales are quite important. In order to assess the overall condition of the fisheries sector, two major impacts were considered: I. impacts on marine fishing and on the fishers, and II. impacts on international trade and supply chain etc.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its resultant lockdown, the practice of marine fishing was almost stopped which has a significant effect (as shown in Fig. 3 ) on the marine fishery sector (Mukherjee et al., 2020; Avtar et al., 2021) . The complete lockdown in the fishing harbours including fish landing centres (FLCs) is reported to have affected the daily earnings of the fisherfolk population across all the coastal districts in the country. According to a report by the M S Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), the daily loss of the fishers was estimated to be in Fig. 2 . Flowchart of nation-wide developments in India in response to the COVID-19 highlighting the impacts on the marine fishery industry.

the range of ₹500 to ₹2000 (USD 7 to 27 approximately) per person corresponding to approximately 50% of their normal daily income which can be attributed to the impacts of the present pandemic scenario (MSSRF, 2020a).

In line with the requirement for social distancing norms of the "COVID-19 Guidelines" communicated by the Government of India, the insistence on personal quarantining as well as the need to maintain a distance of 2 m proved disadvantageous to the fish sellers, predominantly the fisherwomen, who were unable to buy fish from the landing centres and sell it in the market as per the usual practise (MSSRF, 2020a). The operational hours at the fish markets were also reduced to contain the coronavirus infection which was a major factor responsible for the reduction in the buying/selling/trading of fishes. Studies conducted by MSSRF in some villages nearer to Chennai reported that fishers are forced to sell the fishes at just ₹300 to ₹350 (USD 4 to 5 approximately) per kg while the actual rate was ₹500 (USD 7 approximately) per kg corresponding to a lowering of about 60 to 70% of the fishers' incomes (MSSRF, 2020a).

On the social front, the local administrative measures that proved to be a burden for local fishery operators at various levels, included strict enforcement of the norms of self-isolation, restricted movement on roads and streets, harsh policing of the general public due to the absence of clarity on some points in the guidelines (CGIAR, 2020). Although there is no clear evidence that coronavirus can be transmitted through food or food packages if it is being handled by even an infected person with COVID-19 (FAO, 2020b), the consumers were either afraid to purchase fish or bargained for a lower price, which again affected the normal fish sales in the country (MSSRF, 2020b). The combination of these factors impacted the income as well as the social lives of the fishers while they continue to face several issues as a result and the difficulty to maintain their families under the pandemic scenarios.

The population of migrant labourers, associated with fishery-based operations, who were employed on the daily or monthly basis also faced severe social and economic issues due to sudden unemployment (MSSRF, 2020a) . The existing, pre-COVID fragile socio-economic conditions of marine fishers have been exacerbated, increasing the burdens of repaying their loans taken for various fishing activities from different organizations under difficult conditions of unemployability. Bennett et al. (2020) reported that the SSF sector has further been badly affected by the worsening of social and health conditions. Further, the marketing of fishes was greatly affected with respect to landing, loading, unloading, selling, and purchasing (MSSRF, 2020a). The transportation of seafood to the other markets could not be implemented properly due to the lack of vehicles as well as lack of fishing labourers. Due to the decreased supply and demand, fishers were forced to sell fish at a very lower price. Thousands of workers in ice-plants, diesel transportation, and many other fish allied activities lost their jobs, bringing uncertainty to the family earnings due to the massive disruption in the supply chain (MSSRF, 2020a). The loss of jobs, reduction in the income, increase in domestic violence and restlessness among the fisherfolk across the different maritime states in the country created a tense social situation to be handled owing to the sensitivity of the circumstances (MSSRF, 2020b). In Table 1 , the socio-economic impacts of the marine fishers over the duration of the lockdown show the different scales of impacts experienced during the period of investigation.

The fishing crafts which had ventured into the sea before lockdown and returned a few days later, by which time the lockdown had been Fig. 3 . Impacts on marine fishing and fishers due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and its resultant lockdown in the Indian region.

Socio-economic impacts among the marine fishers depending on the scale of lockdown as well as disrupted supply chain.

Socio-economic impacts Short-term impact (<3 days) A sudden decrease in daily earnings Weekly-scale impact (up to 7 days) A decline in the income Monthly-scale impact (~30 days) Unemployment and higher debt Changes anticipated >1 month which need long-term monitoring to be detected/ reported Impacts of behavioural changes, domestic violence and anxiety declared, also faced difficulties due to the lack of market facilities and storage facilities (MSSRF, 2020a). The prevention from the unloading of the landed fish due to the closure of harbours, some of the fishers forced to throw back the goods into the ocean in some areas like Raigad in Maharashtra, Chennai in Tamil Nadu (CGIAR, 2020; MSSRF, 2020a). The resultant lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic also affected the different fish-allied activities such as net mending, crafts and gears repairing etc. In order to contain the spread of coronavirus, preventive measures such as the closure of hotels, restaurants, and canteens, halting of tourism, reduction in the transportation services, restriction on the trades and the strict norms for social distancing, disrupted both the international and domestic fish supply chain (FAO, 2020b). It has been reported that traders have estimated a drop in price due to the sharp decline in the seafood by 20 to 40% as a result of the closure of the hotel and restaurants (Nigam, 2020) . Since the fishers had not ventured into the ocean during the initial strict lockdown and followed by the fishing ban period, there was either no catch or very less catch available in the fish warehouses across the nation.

Direct impacts of these triggering factors on the marine fishers, engaged in the activities of capturing, processing, supplying, transporting, and vending etc. have been reported (Purkait et al., 2020) . Mirroring the global trend of the impacts, the outbreak of COVID-19 continues to be a threat to the public health of fishers including SSF who travel to and/or remain at the seas for long intervals of time, at local scales. Considering the fact that more than 50 million people are engaged worldwide in the marine fishery sector escalates the overall impacts of the pandemic (Saumweber et al., 2020) . Additional factors such as overcrowding of long-haul fishing crafts, less space availability for self-isolation or confinement in the case of contracting COVID-19 contribute to highly unhygienic conditions which increase the risks for spread.

International export of seafood from India was also affected greatly as fish traders were not allowed to enter into the fish harbours during the lockdown. In general, international trade accounts for about 38% of the total global seafood exchanges (FAO, 2020b). Frozen shrimp, which is India's major exported item, also faced a sharp decline in the sales owing to the decrease in the demand from the importing countries like the United States and Europe for following their own lockdown norms due to COVID-19 pandemic (CGIAR, 2020; Love et al., 2021) . The disruption of the international supply chain had a carry-over effect on the domestic supply chain under the COVID-19 pandemic scenario. At the same time, the demand for the frozen and packaged seafood also increased dramatically due to the anxiety among the consumers while lack of manpower in the processing industry did not create the right set of conditions to meet this demand.

According to the report of Central Institute of Fisheries Technology (CIFT), the marine fishery sector faced an economic loss of ₹224 crores (INR 1 crore = USD 138 thousand approximately) daily during the complete lockdown phase, imposed by GoI (Kumar, 2020) . The total loss from the mechanised sector was reported to be ₹6008 crores while from the non-mechanised sector, it was reported to be ₹830 crores during the lockdown phase (Balasubramanian, 2020b) . Apart from this, the largescale suspension of land-based activities at different research institutes (including INCOIS), developmental programmes, management meetings, consciousness and dissemination programmes across the country, has also been reported to hamper the entire growth of the marine fishery sector (Purkait et al., 2020) .

It had been estimated that approximately 14,500 migrant fishing labourers were required as of 2020 across the maritime states of India to resume the fishing activities through mechanised and motorised boats after the relaxation from the lockdown measurements in fishery sector even when the employees, from the interior states, were not intended to re-join immediately (Vohra, 2020) . Further, as of 2020, the fishery sector had been exempted from the stringent lockdown norms in an attempt to kickstart the businesses and trades across the nation, creating the path for fishers to venture into the sea despite the absence of detailed plans or strategies for trading the captured fishes in the domestic sectors as well as for export under an uncertain demand-supply channel (Balasubramanian, 2020a). In some states like West Bengal and Odisha, due to lockdown, the migrant labourers have been forced to reconsider their decision to return or work for considerably lower wages in the face of additional challenges further due to severe impacts of cyclone Amphan in May 2020 (Basu, 2020) . The traditional fishing community are continuously trying to adapt by changing fishing gears, capturing different species of fishes, or by selling their catch directly to the local market to pursue their livelihoods which will indirectly help them to come out from the trap of existing middle-men, who exploit their poor conditions (Orlowski, 2020; Balasubramanian, 2020b) . As the possibility of higher income from the marine fishery sector has been reduced considerably due to the pandemic scenario, many of the fishers are looking for the alternative livelihoods (Balasubramanian and Jency, 2020) . However, fishers were not included in the core relief package for the poor, worth USD 22 billion due to the economic damages incurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic (CGIAR, 2020). Later, ₹20,000 crores (USD 2.75 billion approximately) were allocated to the welfare of the fisherfolk population under the initiative of the 'Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana' on May 22, 2020 (Balasubramanian, 2020b) .

As shown in Fig. 4 , the impacts on the marine fishery sector during the post lockdown phase resulted in the weak supply chain and can become the triggering factors for overfishing in the subsequent seasons leading to unsustainable fishing practices in the long-term.

In a recent post-lockdown survey, conducted in six coastal districts of Odisha during March and April 2021, it was found that the fishing activities had been completely stopped by the fishers using both Fig. 4 . Cyclic representation of the triggering factors that can cause the onset of unsustainable fishing practices such as overfishing, illegal and unreported fishing, fishing in ban periods etc. in the long-term scenario. mechanised as well as motorised crafts in all the FLCs from late March 2020 to November/December 2020. However, the fishers using nonmotorised crafts continued to venture into the sea for fishing. It was also observed that the cessation of activities had resulted in low/nil income from fishing leading to social issues related to the livelihood of the fishers.

Further, the spread of coronavirus in India had been quite dramatic without any significant curve flattening as observed in other parts of the world in 2020. By December 2020 corresponding to the present survey, more than 5.8 million people had tested positive for COVID-19 while the global count had crossed 32 million (MoHFW, 2020; WHO, 2020). Both the recovery rate and the death rate of the COVID-19 patients in Indian cities have been quite significant in comparison with others. After several months of lockdown norms, the normal functioning of most of the food services such as canteens, restaurants, educational institutions have not yet been restored to the optimum extent up to December 2020. Strengthening of local demand-supply in India is being pursued recently to improve the resilience among the marine fishing community (Love et al., 2021) . For example, the resumption of operation of the numbers of fishing crafts in many fishing harbours have been reported (Avtar et al., 2021) , although the full fleet capacity and capture potentials have not yet been restored to pre-covid numbers due to the weak demand-supply chain under the so-called "new normal" scenario. In this context, it is very difficult to predict when the supply chain of the marine fishery sector will run smoothly which is very essential for the lives and livelihoods of the marine fishing community and the workers related to the allied activities.

In the absence of new policies and regulations, these factors can trigger overfishing and illegal fishing activities in the BoB in subsequent fishing seasons if the fishers try to exploit any futuristic rise in demand and to make up for the lost revenues when fishing is not possible in the following months. Capitalising on the emphasis on community health and safety, may distract the attention of the administrators and prevent them from contributing towards plans for SDG 14, of which sustainable fishing forms a core outcome. Non-availability of migrant labourers for performing allied tasks may trigger the increased pressure on traditional fishers, teenagers, and women to replace. This could favour affluent fishers with motorised or mechanised boats with either shorter fishing expeditions with increased frequencies, or longer days at the sea, increasing the intensity of pollution.

According to a report by the Express News Service (2020), the need for suitable policies to deal with the impacts has been under consideration with the Indian Council or Agricultural Research (ICAR). For this purpose, an exclusive COVID-19 impact assessment of marine fishery resources seems to be quite crucial, despite the tough challenge for the policymakers to provide the most cost-effective way in which the Government can support the fishery sector during the pandemic period (IISD, 2020) . From a policy perspective, creating futuristic frameworks for developing resilience to two disasters that affect the marine fishery sector the most i.e., cyclonic and pandemic need to be pursued. For example, in order to kickstart the local marine fishery economics, incentivising non-motorised and motorised fishing during post-cyclonic or post-pandemic periods can contribute to sustainable livelihoods. Such sustainable fishing practices may also prove to be counter-beneficial towards strengthening the supply chain related to marine fisheries (FAO, 2020) . Despite the necessary measurements taken by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), it is difficult to figure out the stabilization period of the supply chain as the severity and duration of COVID-19 pandemic scenario is unknown at this point.

At the same time, the slow resumption of fishing activities since 2020 is likely to have resulted in positive impacts on the ocean health and restoration of fish populations directly and indirectly (Edward et al., 2021) . Some factors which may have contributed to the same include the reduction in the overfishing, alleviation of the impacts of anthropogenic pollution and the impacts of microclimatic changes on the marine and coastal ecosystems (Shehhi and Al, 2020) . Further, the cessation of fishing could be helpful in restoring native populations of the marine fishes, encourage normal fish aggregation due to higher planktonic production, which can be a boon for advancing marine conservation of BoB. Amayo (2020) described the COVID-19 pandemic as the innovation of the sustainable ocean in the coastal regions of Kenya to achieve several SDGs of the United Nations. Sumaila (2020) stated that the COVID-19 recovery period may be a great opportunity to stimulate a truly sustainable ocean-based economy.

It has been suggested that powerful nations should work together to divert the subsidies to aid sustainable fishing practices (OECD, 2020); however, it is important to consider shifting away from subsidies that enhance only capacity (e.g. fuel tax concessions) to those that improve sustainable livelihoods and the resilience of the sector need to be brought into adequate policy frameworks to ensure the targets of SDG14 are met in both pre-and post-disaster scenarios. Further, this unintentional opportunity created by the emergence of the coronavirus may also rebound the Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing practices in the open sea (Dasgupta, 2020) . Assistance from modern technologies can be useful to tackle the challenges posed to marine fisheries due to the global pandemic (WWF, 2020).

The COVID-19 on the fisheries sector is still subject to the indirect impacts where fishery and fishers are in great threat due to the decline consumer demands, market access as well as logistical complication. The annual fishing ban period of around 60 days usually begins on April 15 and continue until June 14 in India. Due to the nationwide lockdown since last week of March 2020, the fishers were forced to avoid the fishing activities for nearly 90 days instead of scheduled 60 days of fish ban period. Expectedly, the economic pressure on resuming normal activities for marine fishers, fish vendors, and fishing labourers is quite high. This may trigger apathy towards pursuing regional SDGs in the near future and also in the long-term (FAO, 2020b) . Hence there is a need to formulate new policy frameworks which include the community-centric participation to achieve the two point benefits of: 1. alleviating the impacts of anthropogenic activities related to fishing (by preventing overfishing and pollution due to tourism related activities as supplemental occupations) and, 2. the slow restoration of the demandsupply chain through sustained policy-based resilience building, with long-term benefits for natural resources sustenance.

Digital innovation, information and communication-based tools (ICTs), remote surveillance, different online services as well as sustainable fishing will be crucial in achieving profits from the marine fishery sector beyond COVID-19 pandemic scenarios, will also be helpful to reinstate sustainable fishing practices.

In order to secure the livelihoods of the marine fishing community, an immediate relief package need to be funded apart from their regular compensation provided annually during the fishing ban period. It is also very important to provide better health services to the fisherfolk population by means of uninterrupted monitoring of their health. In the scenario of the unpredictable market shocks, it is very important to expand the voluntary guidelines on behalf of local administrative and governments for providing secure sustainable SSF including market diversification which may also be a key milestone to fulfil the SDG 14, imposed by United Nations for the upcoming decade 2030. The present study thus provides useful insights on the critical factors for policymakers to formulate development plans for the marine fishers in the BoB region of India to minimize the impacts of the pandemic on regional sustainability in the long-term.

The first author acknowledges the PhD Fellowship provided by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India vide Grant No. MoES/16/15/11-RDEAS(NIAS) awarded to the National Institute of

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The authors would like to thank Prof. Shailesh Nayak, Director, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru and Prof. R. Srikanth, Head, Energy and Environment Program, National Institute of Advanced Studies Bengaluru for their support and encouragement. Important statistics on the impacts of COVID-19 on the marine fishers of India were obtained from reports openly available in the public domain.

Advanced Studies, Bengaluru, Karnataka.

The authors claim no conflict of interests for the following manuscript.