key: cord-0833467-x4w1yimm
authors: Bierwiaczonek, Kinga; Gundersen, Aleksander B.; Kunst, Jonas R.
title: The role of conspiracy beliefs for COVID-19 health responses: A meta-analysis
date: 2022-04-04
journal: Curr Opin Psychol
DOI: 10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101346
sha: 91b34bd0ddecfcbf797e32496cd9ddff010f7839
doc_id: 833467
cord_uid: x4w1yimm

While conspiracy theories about COVID-19 are proliferating, their impact on health-related responses during the present pandemic is not yet fully understood. We meta-analyzed correlational and longitudinal evidence from 53 studies (N = 78,625) conducted in 2020 and 2021. Conspiracy beliefs were weakly associated with more reluctance toward prevention measures both cross-sectionally and over time. They explained lower vaccination and social distancing responses but were unrelated to mask wearing and hygiene responses. Conspiracy beliefs showed an increasing association with prevention responses as the pandemic progressed and explained support for alternative treatments lacking scientific bases (e.g., chloroquine treatment, complementary medicine). Despite small and heterogenous effects, at a large scale, conspiracy beliefs are a non-negligeable threat to public health.

1. Introduction

The spread of the coronavirus has been accompanied by a massive spread of conspiracy 17 theories. Although the study of conspiracy theories has a long-standing and interdisciplinary during the pandemic. We focus on attitudes toward, and self-reported compliance with, COVID-19 30 prevention measures (e.g., social distancing, mask-wearing, hygiene, vaccination), as well as 31 attitudes toward, and self-reported adherence to, alternative treatments for COVID-19 (e.g., 32 chloroquine, garlic, vitamin C). We meta-analyze data from 53 published and unpublished 33 manuscripts from the first year of the pandemic (March 2020 through May 2021), including 310 34 effects from 93 independent samples in 23 countries (N = 78,625). In doing so, we aim to address 35 several questions of broad significance that have produced mixed research results or remain 36 unaddressed to date. Are some conspiracy beliefs more harmful than others? Do they influence 37 certain health-related attitudes and behaviors more than others? Do conspiracy beliefs exert the 38 same effect throughout the pandemic or does their association with health responses change as 39 the pandemic progresses? Are conspiracy beliefs influential especially in specific countries, or do 40 they have a high potential to harm precisely because their effects are relatively context 41 independent?

Addressing the mixed results of single studies [4, 5, 8, 9] , our first goal was to estimate the 46 average effect of conspiracy beliefs on prevention responses across the available research. Results from a multi-level meta-analysis [11] showed that believers in conspiracy theories overall 

Next, we tested whether conspiracy beliefs would predict some types of prevention 80 responses better than others ( Figure 1C) . Indeed, the effects were the strongest for attitudes 

.43, -.01], Figure 1D ). The later into the pandemic, the stronger became the observed negative 103 association between conspiracy beliefs and prevention responses. This finding may indicate that 104 later into the pandemic, such beliefs became more typical of people who were reluctant toward 105 prevention; either because those who were initially reluctant for other reasons than conspiracy 106 beliefs (e.g., safety, effectiveness) started supporting prevention later, or because those who 107 were reluctant started adopting conspiracy beliefs to justify their own reluctancy.

A final question of broad significance was whether the effects of conspiracy beliefs are 109 relatively context independent or whether they emerge in some countries more than others.

Because only 5% of the total variability of effects was attributable to the country level, the country 111 contexts seemed unlikely to play a major role. Still, we tested for the influence of seven potential 

Finally, the negative association between conspiracy beliefs and prevention responses seems to 137 get stronger as the pandemic progresses. While this finding may seem alarming at a first glance,

it does not necessarily imply that conspiracy beliefs became more powerful over time. Rather, it 139 suggests that at later stages of the pandemic, conspiracy beliefs might have become a better 140 factor distinguishing people who engaged in preventive behavior from those who did not.

The literature search for this meta-analysis was completed on May 23, 2021. To ensure 146 high reliability, data from relevant studies were extracted independently by two trained coders.

The analyses were conducted using the following approaches: multi-level meta-analysis, robust 

We would like to thank all authors of primary studies that shared their data with us. 

This chapter gives an overview of factors crucial to conspiracy beliefs, including cultural 

In three studies, this paper cross-culturally and experimentally demonstrates the mutual 

Conspiracy Beliefs, Rejection of Vaccination, and Support for 196 hydroxychloroquine: A Conceptual Replication-Extension in the COVID

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the UK: the Oxford 200 coronavirus explanations, attitudes, and narratives survey (Oceans) II. Psychological

Psychological correlates of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs and 203 preventive measures: Evidence from Turkey

Not-so-straightforward links 206 between believing in COVID-19-related conspiracy theories and engaging in disease-207 preventive behaviours

COVID-19 is a 210 bioweapon) was linked to more preventive behaviours

Meta-analysis of 215 multiple outcomes: a multilevel approach

A critique of the cross-lagged panel model

The Effects of Anti-Vaccine Conspiracy Theories on Vaccination 220 Intentions