key: cord-0829677-ztz3n7d5 authors: Panarello, Demetrio; Tassinari, Giorgio title: One year of COVID-19 in Italy: are containment policies enough to shape the pandemic pattern? date: 2021-07-03 journal: Socioecon Plann Sci DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2021.101120 sha: 7774c4fb205124266c32fc0a8bae33a5300e5604 doc_id: 829677 cord_uid: ztz3n7d5 A successful fight against COVID-19 greatly depends on citizens' adherence to the restrictive measures, which may not suffice alone. Making use of a containment index, data on sanctions, and Google's movement trends across Italian provinces, complemented by other sources, we investigate the extent to which compliance with the mobility limitations has affected the number of infections and deaths over time, for the period running from February 24, 2020 to February 23, 2021. We find proof of a deterrent effect on mobility given by the increase in sanction rate and positivity rate among the population. We also show how the pandemic dynamics have changed between the first and the second wave of the emergency. Lots of people could be spared by incorporating greater interventions and many more are at stake, despite the recent boost in vaccinations. Informing citizens about the effects and purposes of the restrictive measures has become increasingly important throughout the various phases of the pandemic. Concerning the distribution of daily positive cases, swabs, and deaths (Dipartimento della 115 Protezione Civile, 2021), the Italian Civil Protection provides complete data at the regional level; 116 only cases are also provided at the province level. With a view to obtaining the number of swabs at 117 the province level, we weigh the regional values by the population in each province. Positivity rate is 118 the ratio of positive cases to the total number of tests performed on a given day. As there are 119 recurrent inconsistencies and delays in reporting such data, a modest number of days is characterised 120 by negative values of positive cases, swabs, and deaths: this happens when, on a particular day, the 121 count gets corrected downwards after having been overestimated on the day before -e.g., due to erroneously counting duplicate data. Therefore, we correct the single negative values by means of an 123 equally-weighted seven-period two-sided moving average approach, until achieving a positive value 124 for each anomalous observation. Mean daily percentage changes for the six categories are plotted in Figure 10 . Indeed, data for parks 246 are peculiar: this category shows an intense growth in summer, due to seasonality. As regards 247 residential areas, since the related information consists in average lengths of stay, the possible Finally, higher activity rates in the first period seem to bring about an increase in positivity rates 380 among the population. Regional positive cases (lag 17) 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 *** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) Regional swabs (lag 17) -0.000 *** -0.000 *** -0.000 Note: *, ** and *** stand for p < 0.10, p < 0.05 and p < 0.01. As regards potential collinearity issues, after examining the correlation between regression 434 coefficients, we did not detect any worrying values. Moreover, in our estimates, most coefficients 435 appear to be significant and we obtain satisfactory standard errors as well as confidence intervals the second one, and the same goes for activity rate. Moreover, the magnitude of some coefficients 510 changes considerably. In particular, the coefficient for Compliance rate in the second period is 511 noticeably higher than that of the first period; additionally, the set of coefficients pertaining to 512 containment measures shows a large increase, although not being straightly comparable due to the 513 introduction of red and orange zones in the second period. This means that the importance of the 514 restrictive measures and of citizens' accord on their abidance has greatly increased since the end of 515 the summer, also because the stringency level of such measures -as we have already seen -has 516 critically declined, which was preparatory to the formation of the "second wave" of the pandemic. Finally, the coefficient regarding the share of over-65s to the total population is only significant in 518 the first period, which indicates that the pandemic has extended to all age groups. Trying to sum up our achieved outcomes, the restrictions represented by the Containment and 520 Health Index appear essential to contain the pandemic until the vaccination campaign produces the 521 so-called herd immunity. However, we have highlighted that such restrictions are not sufficient 522 when they are not accompanied by citizens' consent, which translates into adherence to the mobility 523 restrictions, detected through the reduction in Google's mobility indices: indeed, it is unrealistic to 524 think that repressive actions are enough to enforce compliance with the new mobility rules. If the goal is to "bend the curve", it must be borne in mind that this is a collective operation: Some countries are going further than others in the way they deal with this unprecedented 538 emergency; hopefully, we will not be found wanting. 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