key: cord-0823158-bce1oeyl authors: Dey, S. K.; Rahman, M. M.; Siddiqi, U. R.; Howlader, A. title: Exploring Epidemiological Behavior of Novel Coronavirus Outbreak through the Development and Analysis of COVID-19 Daily Dataset in Bangladesh date: 2020-07-02 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.30.20143909 sha: 1f606c24bca995925e8a823c2d8534eae9dfbcd7 doc_id: 823158 cord_uid: bce1oeyl Globally, there is an obvious concern about the fact that the evolving 2019-nCoV coronavirus is a worldwide public health threat. The appearance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China at the end of 2019 triggered a major global epidemic, which is now a major community health issue. As of April 17, 2020, according to Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) Bangladesh has reported 1838 confirmed cases in between 8 March to 17 April 2020, with > 4.08% of mortality rate and >3.15% of recovery rate. COVID-19 outbreak is evolving so rapidly in Bangladesh; therefore, the availability of epidemiological data and its sensible analysis are essential to direct strategies for situational awareness and intervention. This article presents an exploratory data analysis approach to collect and analyze COVID-19 data on epidemiological outbreaks based on first publicly available COVID-19 Daily Dataset of Bangladesh. Various publicly open data sources on the outbreak of COVID-19 provided by the IEDCR, World Health Organization (WHO), Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MHFW) of Bangladesh have been used in this research. A Visual Exploratory Data Analysis (V-EDA) techniques have been followed in this research to understand the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 outbreak in different districts of Bangladesh in between 8 March 2020 to 12 April 2020 and these findings were compared with those of other countries. In all, this is extremely important to promptly spread information to understand the risks of this pandemic and begin containment activities in the country. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. In all, this is extremely important to promptly spread information to understand the risks of this pandemic and begin containment activities in the country. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.30.20143909 doi: medRxiv preprint Bangladesh is a democratic nation surrounded by east, west and north India, Myanmar from southeast with Bay of Bengal on the southern side. As of 1 July 2017, the population size in Bangladesh is estimated at 162.7 million (male female ratio is 100.2:100). It has a unitary form of government, without a province or a territory. There are 64 districts in the country and again each district is divided into several sub districts (which is called upazilas). Right now, there are eight divisions (Barisal, Chittagong, Dhaka, Khulna, Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Rangpur, and Sylhet) in the country and each division is named after the major city within its jurisdiction, which also acts as the administrative headquarter of that division. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) is responsible for the preparation and management of curative, preventive and pro-active health services for the population of the country and therefore considered as one of the largest ministries of the Government of Bangladesh. Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) is considered as the focal institute for conducting public health surveillance and outbreak response. During the last few years, however, the efficiency of the International Health Regulation (IHR) has dramatically increased and exceeded 68% in the country. 1 Moreover, it also has the national ability to test COVID-19 patients by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) machine confirmed laboratory. The first cases of pneumonia of unknown origin identified in Wuhan City, the capital of Hubei Province, China in early December 2019 was later determined as a non-SARS novel coronavirus by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2 Coronaviruses are non-segmented positive-sense RNA viruses that belong to the Coronaviridae family and the Nidovirales order and are widely distributed in humans and other mammals. 3 The pathogen has been described as a novel enveloped RNA betacoronavirus 4 commonly referred to as severe . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. 15 and decided that an updated case review with outbreak analysis in Bangladesh may help identify the epidemiological characteristics and severity of the disease across the country. Apart from preparing an inclusive dataset, this research will also analyze the different . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Moreover, this work would pose a concern for the citizens of Bangladesh, whether the situation of COVID-19 in the country is on the verge of a rapid outbreak in near future or if it can flatten the curve. As of April 16, 2020, according to the situation report provided by the IEDCR 16 , ten new death cases taking the total number of death cases to 60 in the country and conformed case raised to 1572. In this research, we have used numerous range of data sources for preparing our datasets. This dataset is is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. team believes that these data should be available to policy makers, health professionals and data analysts and should be readily accessible. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. Table 2 . Sixty percent (60%) (380/621) of all COVID-19 confirmed cases were between 21 and 50 years old, followed by 28% (63) of the age group 51 years and above, while the age group of less than 20 years represented only 10% (178) of all reported cases. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. It is evident that there has been an increasing trend in the number of reported confirmed cases since 3 April 2020, due to expansion of COVID-19 testing in the country and establishing testing capacity in 16 laboratories ( Figure 2 ). By 12 April, a total of 9653 samples were tested of them 26.08% (2518) were tested by laboratories outside Dhaka city and 73.91% (7135) were tested by laboratories inside Dhaka. The overall COVID-19 test rate in Bangladesh is 8.3/100,000 population (until 12 April 2020). The . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. it also work together with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) forum. Therefore, this research also compares the confirmed and mortality ratio in terms of days with these neighboring countries of the same region. However, this study also covers countries that had higher mortality rates worldwide until April 12, 2020 ( Figure 4 ). This study correlates Bangladesh's with SEAR, SARRC and top 10 countries (based on the highest number of recorded deaths) in terms of the number of days it takes to show a similar trend based on confirmed and mortality case pattern. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. We report here all the different cases of COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh based on daily dataset and compare its results with the countries of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. This report analyzed the data focusing on specific criteria including public awareness, case management, infection control, surveillance, quarantine facility and trend analysis with other countries. Consequently, this is, to the best of our knowledge, the first initiative of analyzing and visualizing real-world time series COVID-19 data of Bangladesh in such a way that health professionals and researchers around the globe can grasp its severity clearly. The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged the lives of people around the world and has become a clinical threat to the general population and healthcare workers around the world. However, awareness on this novel virus (SARS-CoV-2) is still minimal in Bangladesh. This study analyzed the forty (40) days situation since the first COVID-19 confirmed patients reported in the country. Additionally, this exploration also implemented and used the country's first publicly available daily COVID-19 case dataset. It also illustrated in this study is the day wise case review and assessment of epidemiological evidence with SAARC, SEAR and the top 10 countries worldwide (in terms of deaths). Our research team believes this is an early data analysis and visualization approach of a situation that is changing rapidly across the country. Therefore, as the more we learn about this SARS-CoV-2 virus . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 2, 2020. and its associated outbreaks, the better we can respond. We will continue to monitor and update the epidemiological data of COVID-19 outbreak in the country in upcoming days by through the developed dataset. All authors conceptualized and designed the study. SKD and MR had the idea for and designed the study and had full access to all the data in the study and take the responsibility for the data and accuracy of the data analysis with their visualization. URS and AH and contributed to the writing of the article. MR contributed to critical revision of the report. All the visualization and data presentation methods developed by SKD and MR. All authors contributed to data acquisition, data analysis, and reviewed and approved the final version. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest. Not required Clinical features of patients with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan A novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China Summary of probable SARS cases with onset of illness from 1 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) Newly discovered coronavirus as the primary cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome Identification of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV): announcement of the Coronavirus Study Group Isolation of a novel coronavirus from a man with pneumonia in Saudi Arabia Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Analyzing the epidemiological outbreak of COVID-19: A visual exploratory data analysis approach Bangladesh COVID-19 Daily Dataset Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) The authors would like to acknowledge the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) for their regular press release. Also, like to acknowledge Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) for their timely situational reports on COVID-19. We are also highly grateful to Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) for making the data publicly available in first place.