key: cord-0804396-lt97j1jy
authors: Winter, Amy Elise
title: The impact of the World Military Games on the COVID-19 pandemic
date: 2021-01-19
journal: Ir J Med Sci
DOI: 10.1007/s11845-020-02484-0
sha: 93df48838dab852d70060fcd499ad09754133c7a
doc_id: 804396
cord_uid: lt97j1jy

nan

It is clear that travel was a major factor in the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 disease. It has been proposed that Wuhan, China, was the epicentre of the pandemic. The World Military Games took place from the 18 th to 27 th of October 2019 in Wuhan, China. Over 140 nations with 9308 athletes participated with over 300,000 attendees, volunteers and staff [1] [2] [3] [4] . This study examined the hypothesis that the large gathering in a pandemic epicentre was a factor in the spread of COVID-19 disease.

The data on the number of athletes and the number of COVID-19 cases per country were extracted from internet sources [1] [2] [3] [4] and were examined from a European perspective. Figure 1 displays the graphical plot of the number of athletes per country against the number of cases of COVID-19 in that country. Note the strong correlation between these variables indicated by the curve fit and regression analysis.

From these data, the following equation can be derived:

where N predicted = the total number of predicted COVID-19 cases, X = the country-specific coefficient, y = the number of athletes per country, and 4y = the number of infected people. There is a correlation between the number of individuals who travelled to the event and the number of COVID-19 cases in the country to which they returned. Whether this explains the rapid spread of the pandemic or not is not known definitively. However, this study shows a mathematical model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases in a country as a result of each infected individual travelling to that country. 

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