key: cord-0796543-e8osc8ts
authors: Pankratov, A. A.; Kuvshinova, E. A.; Galstyan, L. S.
title: Quantitative Assessment of the Socioeconomic Potential of Advanced Development Territories of Regions of the Far Eastern Federal District
date: 2021-08-02
journal: Stud Russ Econ Dev
DOI: 10.1134/s1075700721040110
sha: c478eb65b89be6e907f5e4907bf2e7ea3ea27bd0
doc_id: 796543
cord_uid: e8osc8ts

The article provides a quantitative assessment of the socioeconomic potential of the territories of advanced development (TAD) of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD). The key indicators of the TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District are considered, their contribution to the dynamics of investments in fixed assets and employment of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District is determined, groups of regions of the Far Eastern Federal District are identified according to the degree of influence of the TAD on the parameters of social, economic and investment development, the industry specialization of the TAD is analyzed, the contribution of the TAD to investment and employment is assessed in the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District until 2024.

In recent years, the Russian economy has seen a slowdown in the rate of socioeconomic development, accompanied by a significant decline in investment activity. State bodies are in the process of searching for effective tools aimed at accelerating the socioeconomic development of certain territories experiencing acute problems or having geostrategic significance [1] [2] [3] .

One of the effective tools contributing to the solution of these tasks is the creation of territories of advanced development (hereinafter TAD) with a special regime of economic activity, including a set of various benefits and preferences, which is aimed at attracting Russian and foreign investors and intensifying socioeconomic development [4, 5] .

Territories with a special regime of economic activity have shown high efficiency as an instrument of state policy in countries such as China, India, Brazil, etc. [6] [7] [8] . Since 2014, at the federal level in Russia, a broad program of the use of this tool has been involved in different regions of the country [9] .

To date, the tasks of assessing the current results of the TAD activities, analyzing their impact on the dynamics of socioeconomic and investment development, as well as identifying the factors hindering the development of these projects, are relevant from the scientific and management points of view [10] . An operational assessment of the TAD activity can become the main one for the development of corrective programs, measures and tools by the executive authorities aimed at increasing the efficiency of the TAD functioning and improving the results of their activities.

Currently, Russian TAD are being created in remote and lagging regions of strategic importance, which should become centers of economic and innovative activity [11, 12] .

The purpose of this study is to determine the socioeconomic potential of the TAD in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District (hereinafter FEFD). In the article, a quantitative assessment of the investment potential of the TAD is carried out, an assessment of the degree of their influence on the parameters of the socioeconomic and investment development of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. In the analysis of the results of the functioning of the TAD, the existing methods for assessing the effectiveness of the TAD in Russia were used [13, 14] .

Features of the Russian experience in the formation of TAD. The use of the TAD approach in the Russian practice of strategic planning has become a natural continuation of the use of the tool of special economic zones (SEZ) [15, 16] . The beginning of the formation of the TAD in Russia is associated with the task of creating special economic regimes in the Far East, Siberia The main incentives for the beginning of the formation of TAD in the Far East were: a significant lag of the regions of the Far East in terms of socioeconomic development from the average Russian indicators, the intensification of trade cooperation between Russia and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the need to develop special geostrategic territories within the framework of the implementation of the strategic tasks outlined in the Strategy for National Security and the Strategy for Spatial Development of Russia [4, 18] .

The most acute socioeconomic problem of the Far East, which has not yet been resolved, is a significant migration outflow and low rates of natural population growth. The regions of the Far Eastern Federal District annually lose an average of 15 to 20 thousand people of the resident population, which is primarily associated with the economic problems of the development of these territories, unfavorable living conditions, low infrastructural development, remoteness from the most developed regions of Russia [19, 20] .

The TAD program is aimed at improving the socioeconomic conditions and the investment climate by creating a privileged regime for conducting economic, trade and investment activities. TAD also serve the purposes of diversifying the sectoral structure of the economy, forming and developing high-tech industries, and reducing socioeconomic differentiation between regions of Russia [6] .

The most common types of benefits within the TAD are: tax holidays for residents, reduced tax rates; preferential rates of insurance premiums; customs preferences, including simplification and acceleration of customs procedures, savings on customs payments [21, 22] .

In Russia, when selecting applications for the creation of a TAD, preference is given to the problem regions. In international practice, the TAD mechanism is also mainly used to support regions lagging behind in development, since this mechanism is aimed at creating local centers of investment activity that will improve the economic conditions of adjacent territories.

TAD, unlike SEZs, have a wider set of preferences and benefits for investors; the territorial localization of TAD extends to individual municipalities, as a rule, urban districts; TAD are aimed not only at creating favorable economic conditions, but also at improving the social environment [16] .

The data used and the research methodology. A quantitative assessment of the socioeconomic potential of the TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District was carried out in several stages. Initially, according to Rosstat data, a database was formed containing indicators of investment in fixed assets, the number of employees, the creation of new jobs, and the GRP of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District.

On the basis of these data, indicators of the investment capacity of the economy of the FEFD regions were calculated, defined as the ratio of the amount of investment in fixed assets to the amount of GRP of the FEFD regions for the last three years 2 :

(1)

where is the amount of investment in the fixed capital of the region r in 2016-2018 and is the sum of the GRP of region r in 2016-2018.

The indicator under consideration is important in the context of assessing the current directions of investment development. In accordance with the plan of the Russian Government to accelerate investment growth 3 , their minimum required level in relation to the volume of the regional economy should exceed 25% [23] . The territories for which the considered indicator exceeded 25% were classified as regions with high investment activity and, therefore, high potential for economic growth.

At the next stages, the statistical base was supplemented with data on investments in fixed assets and on the number of new jobs within the TAD, collected on the basis of open sources 4 .

In the context of measuring the investment potential of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, it was important to determine what contribution the TAD makes to investment activity. In particular, we calculated the ration of contributions of accumulated investments for three years within the TAD to the total volume of investments in the economy of the FEFD regions in 2016-2018: Based on the calculated data, a matrix was compiled for the distribution of the FEFD regions by the level of investment activity and the contribution of TAD to the indicator of investments in fixed assets of the FEFD regions; groups of regions were identified according to the degree of TAD influence on the parameters of investment development.

The main calculated indicators were also estimated for the period up to 2024 using the method of extrapolating the time series of statistical data, taking into account the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which determined the decrease in the volume of investments in fixed assets in Russia in 2020 by 4.5% of the level of 2019 5 , and FDI in the Far Eastern Federal District by more than 30% 6 The growth in the level of investment activity in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District since 2014 is determined by the beginning of the functioning of the preferential regimes of the TAD. Largely due to the TAD, which provided an additional inflow of investments into the economy, the level of investment capacity of the Far Eastern Federal District in 2016-2018 amounted to 28%, which exceeds the established level of 25%, as well as the average indicator for Russia of 21% (Table 1) .

At the same time, not all regions of the Far Eastern Federal District are characterized by an increased level of investment capacity. The leaders of investment activity over the past years are Amur oblast, the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), the Trans-Baikal krai, Magadan oblast, the Jewish Autonomous oblast and Sakhalin oblast, while for the Republic of Buryatia, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Khabarovsk, Kamchatka and Primorskii krai, the ratio of capital to the volume of GRP is less than 25%.

These differences are determined by the multidirectional investment cycles for different regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, the completion of large investment projects, as well as the effect of the accumulated base of economic potential [24] .

The total number of TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District, as of December 2020, is 22 of 87 created in Russia. The number of residents registered in the TAD is estimated at 446, within the TAD it is planned to implement more than 300 investment projects.

In the Far East, TAD are supported in all regions, with the exception of the Magadan oblast. The dynamics of the formation of the TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District was systematically decreasing: in 2015, eight TAD were created, in 2016 seven, in 2017 five, in 2018 no TAD were created, in 2019 two TAD were created, and in 2020, one. Thus, we can conclude that a certain "critical" mass of the these objects in the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District has been formed.

The spatial distribution of the TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District is uneven: the largest number of them, four, is localized on the territory of the Primorskii krai; three TAD were created on the territory of the Khabarovsk krai, Amur and Sakhalin oblasts; two TAD are supported on the territory of the Republics of Buryatia and Sakha, in the Trans-Baikal krai; one TAD in the Kamchatka krai, the Jewish Autonomous District and the Chukotka Autonomous District.

Despite the expected priority development of hightech industries, most of the Far Eastern TAD specializes in mining, woodworking and pulp and paper industries, production of building materials and mineral fertilizers, basic chemistry, metallurgy, petrochemistry and coal industry, i.e., on the development of the raw materials complex and processing industries of low value added.

TAD located in the Trans-Baikal krai, the Jewish Autonomous oblast, the Primorskii, Khabarovsk and Kamchatka krais, and Amur and Sakhalin oblasts also specialize in agro-industrial production, the food industry, fishing and fish farming. Tourism and recreation presented in the TAD of the Kamchatka and Khabarovsk krais, and Amur and Sakhalin oblasts, are a promising specialization of the Far Eastern Federal District.

High-tech industries of TAD include: deep processing of agricultural products (Primorskii krai, TAD Mikhailovsky), assembly plants (Primorskii krai, TAD Nadezhdinsky), shipbuilding and ship repair (Primorskii krai, TAD Bolshoi Kamen, Khabarovsk krai, TAD Nikolaevsk-on-Amur and Komsomolsk-on-Amur), mechanical engineering and the aviation industry (Khabarovsk krai, TAD Komsomolsk-on-Amur) and the space industry (Amur oblast, TAD Svobodny).

The volume of investments in fixed assets of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District for 2016-2018, according to Rosstat, amounted to 3.85 trillion rubles, while the volume of investments directed within the TAD for the same period is estimated at 907 billion rubles 7 . Thus, the TAD in the Far East currently provide up to a quarter of the total investment potential of the Far Eastern Federal District, which generally characterizes the importance of the facilities under consideration for socioeconomic and investment development. At the same time, the level of investment activity in the TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District varies significantly.

In this regard, three groups of regions of the Far Eastern Federal District can be distinguished:

-Regions for which the TAD is the main instrument of investment development: the contribution of the TAD to investments in fixed assets is more than 50% for Amur oblast, Primorskii krai, and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. -Regions for which TAD is an important, but not a key, instrument of investment development: TAD's contribution to fixed capital investments is from 10 to 50% in Khabarovsk and Kamchatka krais.

-Regions for which the TAD is one of the instruments of investment development: the contribution of the TAD to investments in fixed assets is less than 10% in the Trans-Baikal krai, the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) and Buryatia, the Jewish Autonomous oblast, and Sakhalin oblast.

Currently, there is no direct correlation between the level of investment capacity of the economy of the FEFD regions and the contribution of the TAD in investments in fixed assets. The values of both indicators are high only for Amur oblast. Moreover, on the territory of Magadan oblast, the investment capacity is high and amounts to about 30%; the TAD are not supported (Fig. 2) . These differences may indicate that TAD are created primarily in regions experiencing a decrease in the level of investment activity [25, 26] .

According to the estimates of the Russian Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East, within the framework of the TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District, over the entire period of their existence for the period up to 2024, it is planned to invest 3.77 trillion rubles, of which 2.6 trillion rubles will be in the period 2019-2024 8 . Considering the negative economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, a favorable level of investment activity in the Far Eastern Federal District, according to the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East, in 2020-2024, is estimated at 5-5.5 trillion rubles 9 .

Thus, the contribution of the TAD to the total investment in the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District may increase up to 35%, while the indicator is expected to grow for most regions. In particular, by 2024, the TAD's contribution to the investment potential of the Trans-Baikal krai should increase significantly from 7 to 78%, Kamchatka krai from 11 to 60%, Primorskii krai from 54 to 91%, and the Jewish Autonomous oblast from 6 to 15%.

For the Republics of Buryatia, Sakha (Yakutia), the Khabarovsk krai, Amur and Sakhalin oblasts, the contribution of the TAD in investments in fixed assets will generally remain at the current level, and only for the Chukotka Autonomous oblast a significant reduction in the investment role of the TAD is expected due to the implementation of large infrastructure projects on the territory of the okrug, outside the activities of the TAD, as part of the implementation of the Comprehensive Plan for the Modernization and Expansion of the Backbone Infrastructure for the Period until 2024 10 ( Table 2) .

During the functioning of the TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District, more than 40 thousand new jobs were created. According to the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East, within the framework of the TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District, it is planned to create more than 83 thousand jobs for the period up to 2024. On the first consideration, it can be concluded that the social effects of TAD activities are not so significant compared to their economic role. In particular, the share of jobs created within the TAD of the average annual number of people employed in the economy of the FEFD regions is estimated at 1%. At the same time, it is possible to single out the regions in which more than 1.5% of the employed population are involved in the activities of the TAD: Kamchatka krai, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia).

If we consider the dynamics of the formation of new jobs in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, the role of TAD from the point of view of social effects will turn out to be more significant. In 2016-2018, the average annual number of employed in the In a number of regions, where the largest number of jobs created within the TAD was recorded, at the same time, a somewhat smoothed dynamics of a decrease in the number of employed in the economy is observed. Thus, despite the fact that the problem of a significant migration outflow and population decline in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District persists to the present day, it can be concluded that the TAD have a beneficial stabilizing effect on the labor market in the regions, compensating for a significant share of the lost jobs.

If we assume that the reduction in the number of employed in the FEFD economy will remain at an average level of up to 10 thousand jobs per year, the contribution of jobs formed within the TAD to the average annual number of employed in the FEFD by 2024 may increase to 2%. At the same time, it is expected that the share of TAD jobs will increase most significantly in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, up to 12%, in the Kamchatka krai, up to 6%, in the Primorskii krai, the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) and Amur oblast, over 2% (Table 3) .

The study showed that the TAD of the Far Eastern Federal District have significant economic potential and are one of the most important tools for investment and economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District.

The current contribution of the TAD to the total investment in fixed assets of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District is estimated at 24%; the contribution of jobs created within the TAD to the indicators of the average annual number of people employed in the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District is more than 1%. Thus, at present, the TAD actually determine a quarter of the volume of investment activity in the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District, and by 2024 this indicator may increase to 35%.

The social efficiency of the TAD is significantly inferior to the level of their influence on the parameters of investment activity. Despite the fact that TAD as a whole have a stabilizing effect on the labor market, the problem of reducing the number of people employed in the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District has not yet been resolved. The relatively low social efficiency of TAD is due, inter alia, to their industry specialization: TAD is primarily aimed at developing the raw materials sector, which does not require the formation of a large number of jobs.

The main risks of developing PDAs in the long term are associated mainly with their industry specialization. On the one hand, TAD have a beneficial stimulating effect on economic activity and play the role of key centers of economic growth. On the other hand, there is an increase in raw materials specialization, the formation of a rental economy, the basis of which is the export of natural resources.

A negative result of the TAD activity in the short term may be a significant deterioration of the environmental situation in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, in the long term a gradual reduction in their economic return due to the depletion of the natural resource potential. In this regard, it is especially important to carry out systemic monitoring and control of the TAD activities, to stimulate the development of high-tech and innovative industries based on them.

The research was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within the framework of the scientific project No. 19-310-90081, "Development of a universal multifactorial econometric model aimed at identifying, measuring and predicting cluster effects, using the example of federal cluster formations of the Russian Federation (innovative territorial and industrial clusters)."

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