key: cord-0795993-67e8k70l authors: Alcover, C.-M.; Salgado, S.; Nazar, G.; Ramirez-Vielma, R.; Gonzalez-Suhr, C. title: Job insecurity, financial threat and mental health in the COVID-19 context: The buffer role of perceived social support date: 2020-07-31 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.31.20165910 sha: eae53591a81ad9f30d79a84e5b8cd635e2c86bd1 doc_id: 795993 cord_uid: 67e8k70l The social distancing, confinement and quarantine adopted since March 2020 to confront the COVID-19 pandemic have affected multiple vital areas, and specially work, business and productive activities. Prior research has highlighted the relation between perceptions of risk in employment and its concomitant financial risk with a myriad of consequences for people's well-being and health. In order to analyze the potential negative consequences of temporary layoffs, downsizing or closure of companies and businesses, and the consequent insecurity about the continuity of employment, the aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, to analyze the relations between the perceptions of job insecurity and financial threat and overall mental health during the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic in a sample of the Chilean adult population. And secondly, to identify the potential buffer effect of perceived social support on this relation. To analyze this, we carried out a cross-sectional study on a non-probabilistic sample aimed at a general Chilean adult population. The results show that both perceptions of job insecurity and financial threat are associated with a decline in perceived mental health. Additionally, results indicate a moderate buffer effect of perceived social support relative to the size of the social network. Thus, in relation to job insecurity and financial threat, the network size mitigates the association of both with the decline in perceived mental health. The theoretical and applied scope of these findings are analyzed, and their challenges and limitations are discussed. order to analyze the potential negative consequences of temporary layoffs, downsizing or closure of 23 companies and businesses, and the consequent insecurity about the continuity of employment, the 24 aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, to analyze the relations between the perceptions of job insecurity 25 and financial threat and overall mental health during the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic in 26 a sample of the Chilean adult population. And secondly, to identify the potential buffer effect of 27 perceived social support on this relation. To analyze this, we carried out a cross-sectional study on 28 a non-probabilistic sample aimed at a general Chilean adult population. The results show that both 29 perceptions of job insecurity and financial threat are associated with a decline in perceived mental 30 health. Additionally, results indicate a moderate buffer effect of perceived social support relative to 31 the size of the social network. Thus, in relation to job insecurity and financial threat, the network 32 Introduction 35 The disruptive effects of social distancing, confinement and quarantine adopted to confront 36 the Covid-19 pandemic have affected multiple vital areas. Since March 2020, with its rapid 37 expansion in Europe and later in America, work activities have suffered drastic changes. On the one 38 hand, governments and businesses imposed or recommended working from home or remotely, 39 which affected all types of activities, except for the essential sectors and services where being 40 present was unavoidable (hospitals, basic product sourcing, pharmacies, food sales, etc.). On the 41 other hand, a good number of productive sectors suddenly suspended their activities, affecting the 42 majority of commerce, small services and hospitality businesses as well as industry in other 43 activities considered non-essential, which resulted in the loss or temporary layoffs for a high number 44 of workers. The economic implications of the global pandemic, called 'Coronanomics' [1] , are still 45 difficult to estimate in all their macro and micro magnitude on a global scale and per country [2] ; 46 however, the effects on people and their families who lost their job, suffered a temporary layoff or 47 have kept it but perceive its possible loss or a deterioration in their working conditions, are already 48 evident and can be identified. 49 Research conducted in the two last decades, and particularly since the beginning of the Great 50 Recession of 2008, has uncovered the relation between perceptions of risk in employment and its 51 concomitant financial risk with a myriad of consequences for people's well-being and health. Thus, 52 job insecurity (e.g. [3] [4] [5] ) and financial insecurity (e.g. [6] [7] [8] ) have negative effects on many aspects 53 of people's physical, mental and psychosocial health, including even direct effects on mortality 54 when health is fragile [9] or it leads to suicidal behaviors [10], as well as affects family [11] and 55 partner relationships. 56 On the other hand, previous research has shown the buffer effect of social support on the 57 negative effects of job insecurity [12, 13] . Thus, the support received at work mitigates the negative 58 effect of job insecurity on certain work-related outcomes, such as job dissatisfaction and 59 noncompliant job behaviors, whereas the support received outside of work does so in relation to life 3 dissatisfaction [14] . There is also empirical evidence of the buffer role of tangible social support in 61 the relation between financial stress and psychological well-being and psychosomatic disorders 62 [15], an effect that has been verified for both instrumental and emotional support [16] . 63 In Chile, where this study was conducted, social distancing and confinement were adopted 64 in mid-March 2020, which meant shutting down and closing multiple productive activities with the 65 resulting temporary layoff or suspension of the work contract for a high number of workers, as well 66 as the increase in uncertainty about future job continuity for many employees in vulnerable work 67 situations. In order to analyze the potential negative consequences of these experiences, the aim of 68 this study is twofold. Firstly, to analyze the relations between the perceptions of job insecurity and 69 financial threat and overall mental health during the first month of the pandemic in a sample of the 70 Chilean adult population. And secondly, to identify the potential buffer effect of perceived social 71 support on this relation. Thus, our goal is carrying out an initial analysis of how work and economic 72 factors can affect people's mental health in a context of a prolonged health emergency and the 73 concomitant economic crisis. 74 Job insecurity refers to "the perceived threat of job loss and the worries related to that threat" 77 [17, p. 1]. Basically, it is a subjective anticipatory perception, the core of which is concern and fear 78 regarding the future continuity of one's current job in the short or medium term, i.e., of involuntarily 79 losing one's job with all the related negative consequences for well-being and mental health, job 80 attitudes and behaviors, and quality of life [18] [19] [20] . Job insecurity can be experienced in two ways, 81 both in the sense of full job loss or quantitative insecurity [18, 21] , and by changes in what, how, 82 where and when work is done, or job status insecurity, "relating to anxiety about changes to valued 83 features of the job" [22, p. 36 proposed differentiating the cognitive components of job insecurity related to the perception of loss 91 or negative job change, from the affective components related to the emotional reactions to job loss 92 or potential job change. The meta-analytic results [26] show that affective job insecurity is more 93 significantly related to most of the correlates and outcomes than cognitive job insecurity. However, 94 most research has used a global perspective (i.e., one-dimensional) of quantitative job insecurity 95 (e.g. [18, 20, 27]), and this is the approach and measure adopted in this study. 96 Extensive prior research has identified the most relevant effects of job insecurity. First, the 97 meta-analytic results had shown an overall negative effect on general mental health [19, 28] , as well 98 as for specific disorders such as anxiety, depression, decrease on psychological well-being, 99 emotional exhaustion or life dissatisfaction [29] . Job insecurity is also associated with increased 100 anxiety and irrational thoughts as well as psychological distancing at work, similar to what is 101 experienced when face death or dismemberment [30] . Furthermore, negative effects of job 102 insecurity have also been found on physical health, including headaches or eyestrain and skin 103 problems [31], and incident coronary heart disease [32] . 104 Second, it has also been found that the negative effects of job insecurity on health indicators 105 and life satisfaction are greater in workers with low levels of employability or lack of opportunities 106 to find a new job in case of losing the current one [31]. These effects are compounded when people 107 are over 40 years of age [33] . 108 Finally, an indirect effect of job insecurity on health can occur when people reduce their 109 investments in health so they can save in order to cope with a possible job loss. Although this 5 potential effect could only be verified in the long term [31], it is important to consider it as a factor 111 that increases the accumulated vulnerability of workers with fewer resources, since there is evidence 112 [34] that job insecurity also affects negatively daily consumption and some major life decisions. 113 Based on these rationales and prior data, we formulate the following hypothesis: 114 H1: Perceived job insecurity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will have a negative 115 effect on overall mental health. 116 Financial threat is an emotional state which refers to "self-reported fearful-anxious 118 uncertainty regarding one's current and future financial situation" [35, p. 129; see also [7] . Financial 119 threat perception, or financial distress, is usually associated with people or households that 120 experience job insecurity when their jobs are less secure and have low protection against 121 and psychological distress and mental health issues [7] . Additionally, it has been proven that the 6 perception of future financial risk (without future unemployment necessarily occurring) affects 136 more negatively mental health than real volatility, which also affects all income levels and is more 137 detrimental for men [40] . Worry and rumination about financial risk can also exacerbate their 138 negative consequences on mental health, psychological well-being and cognitive functioning [42] . 139 It has also been found that the perception of financial risk mediates the relation between economic Based on these rationales and prior data, we formulate the following hypothesis: about everything that is happening)" was used. This item is part of the MOS social support survey 243 [58], also widely used in Spanish and in the Chilean context (e.g., [59] ). 244 First, the factorial structure of the instruments was tested, applying confirmatory factor 246 analysis (CFA) using JASP software version 0.11.1 (extraction methods used: maximum likelihood 247 estimation, VARIMAX rotation), and the following indices were used for goodness of fit: χ 2 /df, 248 RMSEA, SRMR, CFI, and TLI. 249 Second, along with previous analyses, the Harman test was applied to estimate possible 250 common-method variance effects for all items in the study [60] . Third, once all the above were 251 performed, the bivariate Pearson correlation was used to test the relationship between variables. 252 Finally, to contrast the moderation hypothesis, Hayes's macro [61] was applied using IBM SPSS 253 24 software. 254 In order to test the factor structure of the instruments, two CFAs was performed: the first 256 analyzed the empirical structure of the data on the instruments of job insecurity along with the 257 general health scale (N = 394; which corresponds to the participants who completed this scale, minus 258 nine subjects self-categorized as "other occupational status", i.e., the workers with full and part-time 259 contracts and independent workers were considered in the analysis); the second model contains the 260 financial threat scale along with the general mental health scale for the total sample. In both models 261 the two latent variables freely covariate. As seen in Table 1 , the goodness of fit indices used (χ 2 /df, 262 11 RMSEA, which is acceptable. In the case of χ2 / df ratio, the result is very sensitive to large sample 264 sizes, as is the case of the present study. However, according to the combination of adjustment index 265 criteria established by [62] , it can be argued that there is an adequate adjustment of the factorial 266 structure of the instruments after ruling out one of the six items on the financial threat scale (How 267 much do you think about your financial situation?), and two items on the general mental health scale 268 (Have you felt that you are playing a useful role in life? and, Have you felt able to make decisions?), 269 whose modification indexes indicated that its removal would allow a better adjustment of the data 270 to the theoretical structure, which could be due to some level of redundancy in item content. The 271 elimination of these items complies with the recommendation of not exceeding the twenty percent 272 of them [63] . 273 Regarding the post hoc strategy, we carried out the Harman single factor test [65] . This is the most 281 widely used method to examine the pernicious presence of CMV [60, 66]. The results showed that 282 this first single factor explains 24.43% of the variance, considerably less than the 50% from common 283 variance; thus, CMV does not seem to affect correlations among the studied variables. Furthermore, 284 Table 2 shows the descriptive statistics of the variables included in this study, as well as the 285 respective Cronbach's Alpha and McDonald's Omega, which were reasonable (Table 2) . 286 In order to test H1 and H2 bivariate correlations were run. As Table 2 shows, all of the study 287 variable were significantly correlated, and particularly mental health was negatively related to both 288 perceived work insecurity (r = -2.14, p < 0.05) and financial threat (r = -.335, p < 0.05), so H1 and 289 H2 were accepted. 290 13 In order to test H3, a moderation analysis of social support network in the relationship 294 between dependents and independents variables was carried out, controlling the effect of the 295 variables sex, age and educational level (Table 3) . From here, all the analyzes that account for direct 296 effects and moderations use the scores of the independent variables transformed into z-scores. 297 Results showed that the overall model significantly explained general mental health (F(6, 387) = 298 8.56, p < .001, R 2 = .12). As shown in Table 3 , both work insecurity and social support network 299 predicted general mental health, and the interaction (moderation) between them contributed 300 significantly to this explanation (F(1, 387) = 10.40, p = .001, R 2 = .024), supporting H3. 301 Figure 1 shows the effect of work insecurity over general mental health, in presence of social 306 support network. It is possible to see that when social support network is high, the effect of work 307 insecurity on general mental health is not significant. Table 3 , both financial threat and social support predicted general mental health 319 and, supporting H3, the interaction (moderation) between them contributed significantly to this 320 explanation (F(1, 583) = 5.55, p = .018, R 2 = .008). 321 Figure 2 shows, the effect of financial threat on perceived general health is buffered by 326 social support network, that is, when social support network is high, the effect of financial threat on 327 perceived general mental health is not significant. In April, the World Bank estimated that Chile's economic activity could shrink up to 3.3% in 2020, 341 accompanied by a significant reduction in trade flows, consumption and the price of raw materials, 342 especially copper, which will result in increased unemployment and poverty rates [68] . The data 343 from our study indicate that people already perceived this impact during first stage of the pandemic through job insecurity and financial threat, and that these perceptions related negatively to their 345 overall mental health, as is discussed next. 346 First, the measurement of global job insecurity [17, 20] indicates that this issue is perceived 347 as a threat in Chile in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the overall mean value is 348 not high. It is possible that the education level of the sample, with a predominance of university 349 graduates, is related to a perception of greater employability, which helps to relativize the perception where they verified that job insecurity and financial worries affected mental health the same. Nor 397 are they in line with those obtained in Sweden by [79] , who confirmed job dependency due to 398 economic issues did not mitigate the relation between job insecurity and psychological well-being. 399 These discrepancies with some prior results may be because in Chile social protection systems are 400 much less robust than those generally available in European Union countries with welfare states [8] , 401 and in particular in Sweden [79] , and they may be close to those that predominate in the US [30] . 402 Thus, in Chile, where the population generally carries high debt levels and a fragile unemployment 403 insurance system, people who view their financial situation with concern are more job-dependent 404 and react more negatively to the threat, which is reflected in their mental health. In this sense, we 405 argue that the moderating effect of the social support network will be less if the person who works 406 is responsible for a larger number of people. In order to analyze it, we performed a hierarchical 407 regression, segmenting the file into two groups (1 or fewer dependents = group 1; two or more 408 dependents = group 2, ns = 261 and 131 respectively) to verify the direct effects of financial threat, 409 social support network and their interaction on overall mental health. In line with the previous 410 reasoning, the results showed that in both groups direct significant regression weights of financial 411 threat and social support network appear on overall mental health (βs > .108, ps < .005), but that the 412 interaction is only related to a lower level of damage to mental health in the group of up to one 413 dependent (βs = .087 and .000, ps = .002 and .996, for groups 1 and 2, respectively). Additionally, 414 the percentage of variance explained by these models is greater in group 2 than in group 1 (R 2 = 415 .166 and .123, respectively), which is why these variables to a large extent explain the worsening of 416 overall mental health in the group with more dependents. Prior results [40] also show that the 417 negative effects of economic insecurity are greater in men, who for socioeconomic and cultural 418 reasons continue to be the main providers in families, as can also occur in Chile. 419 Finally, the study results indicate a moderate buffer effect of perceived social support relative 420 to the size of the social network. Thus, in relation to job insecurity and financial threat, the network 421 size mitigates the association of both with the decline in perceived mental health. These results are 19 similar to those obtained in previous studies in relation to both constructs [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] 49] , and reinforce 423 the value of social support as a resource to cope with stressful experiences beyond specific situations 424 and contexts. Although the network size of the participants is not high (mean 8.13 average), what 425 seems important is the perceived effectiveness of this network to manage job insecurity and financial 426 threat. When asking for the number of people who form their support network, we were 427 investigating not only the size of the social network, but also the cohesion of the network and the 428 type of close relations (i.e., primary and strong bonds) that people establish in them. Both factors 429 directly affect the reception of various types of social support [80] , so that the participants seem to 430 perceive that the social network is a powerful resource to cope with financial stress and job 431 insecurity. In addition to this direct influence, the perception of the support network may also 432 expand through the experience of trust, where its members increase their social capital through their 433 own contacts. 434 The outcomes obtained have direct practical implications related to the need to implement 436 psychological support measures for workers and the unemployed in order to equip them with coping 437 strategies to manage uncertainty and stress. These psychosocial supports should be available in 438 organizations and primary care centers so they can be accessible and have a restraining effect on the 439 most serious mental health consequences in the medium and long term [72] . profession, etc.) [83] can be highly effective at equipping those who experience financial threat and 458 job insecurity with social coping and resilience resources that increase personal resources. Despite 459 being subjective perceptions, financial and job insecurity have objective components and, 460 consequently, are not an individual but a collective problem; therefore, the possible tools to confront 461 them will also need to be collective and social. 462 Although the result of Harman's test indicates the absence of common-method variance 464 effects, the cross-sectional nature of the design only allows us to identify relations between the 465 variables, although these relations were statistically significant. However, despite this limitation, 466 the importance of having preliminary data on the disruptive impact caused by the scale and speed 467 of the global pandemic in Chile justifies the urgency of obtaining an initial approach of the 468 consequences for mental health of work-related variables. Indeed occupational health, job insecurity 469 and job precariousness are three of the ten key areas for research and practice in WOP due to the 470 impact on them by COVID-19 as identified by experts (Rudolph et al., 2020); thus, this study makes 471 an important contribution to knowledge in this context, but it must be broadened or complemented. 472 In this regard, our aim is to continue collecting data on these variables so that longitudinal 473 studies can establish causal relations among them, and to learn with greater precision the long-term 474 effects and perceptions of financial threat and psychological insecurity on mental health. 475 Third, the participants in our study did not form part of a probabilistic sample, so that the 476 outcomes cannot be generalized to the Chilean population. Also in this case, future studies will have 477 to try to access representative samples, or concentrate groups of workers, specific people or contexts 478 (concrete professions, young or older workers or vulnerable groups, etc.) in order to most accurately 479 identify the differential effects of 'Coronanomics' [1] in each setting. 480 Finally, this study has only considered the variables mentioned as moderating antecedents 481 and consequents, but we are aware that in the experiences and the outcomes that people are living 482 during this economic and health crisis other personal, family, organizational and social variables are 483 involved that interact in a complex way, which is reflected in the percentage of variance explained 484 by the contrasted models not exceeding 20%. 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