key: cord-0792132-9dtwmfmm authors: Pu, Mingzhe; Zhong, Yu title: Rising concerns over agricultural production as COVID-19 spreads: Lessons from China date: 2020-07-20 journal: Glob Food Sec DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100409 sha: b1989753c9f9f24ba2004d0126c91e0e409f3750 doc_id: 792132 cord_uid: 9dtwmfmm There are rising concerns over the impact of COVID-19 on the agricultural production, which may become a nonnegligible threat to the long-term food supply and food security. This paper discusses the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural production in China, followed by government responses to alleviate the negative effects. The results show that unreasonable restrictions would block the outflow channels of agricultural products, hinder necessary production inputs, destroy production cycles, and finally undermine production capacity. It is expected that China's experiences could give warnings and suggestions to other countries that are experiencing serious outbreak to protect domestic agricultural production, especially developing countries. quantity of the agricultural products dropped dramatically (see Fig. 1 ). 11 14 The obstacles in outflow channels pushed sales pressure back to the production sectors, 15 resulting in large amounts of unmarketable agricultural products. Most pig pens, chicken coops, 16 fish ponds and farm lands were overstocked, especially for seasonal perishable products. China's 17 major winter fruit-producing provinces (e.g., Guangxi, Hainan) and winter vegetable-producing 18 provinces (e.g., Yunnan, Sichuan) sent out distress signals. The China Agricultural Product 19 Marketing Association (CAPMA) collected 3,482 pieces of overstocked agricultural product 20 information across the nation from February 20th to March 31st, approximately 85 pieces per day. 21 The information included 53% fruit, 18% animal products, 16% vegetables, 7% grain and edible 22 oil, and 3% aquatic products (see Fig. 2 ). This indicated that the epidemic has had a greater impact 1 on perishable agricultural products than other products. The total overstocked weight recorded by 2 CAPMA was over 2.76 million tones, including 21.64 million chickens, 11 .08 million ducks, and 3 246.6 thousand pigs. These numbers only reflect a fraction of the total overstocked products. 4 The effect of the epidemic on labor inputs mainly lay on restricting labor movement. Farmers 8 were not allowed to go out or gather under any circumstances except shopping for necessities. 9 This led to a shortage of labor and decreased production efficiency. Some grain-producing areas in 10 the southeastern coastal provinces could not plant crops on time, due to the lack of migrant skilled 11 grain growers from Hubei, Hunan, and Sichuan provinces. Most farm service providers stopped 12 working due to the fear of the epidemic or the traffic restrictions (Wei and Lu, 2020). Some 13 providers could plant 6 hectare per day before the epidemic; however, after the epidemic broke out, 14 they could only cover 3 hectare per day because of the difficulty in hiring tractor drivers. 15 Crop planting were delayed to some extent. Chinese farmers usually complete their planting 16 preparations around the Spring Festival. However, in this year most production inputs were not 17 ready due to the lockdown policies. The online survey data collected from 1,501 rural households 18 by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) showed that 51.19% of respondents 19 had difficulty buying fertilizers, pesticides, and other inputs, and 20.39% had no access to 20 purchasing these necessities (Zhong et al., 2020) . On the national level, data from the Ministry of 21 Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) showed that the seed markets' opening time was delayed 22 by 10 to 15 days, and seed sales decreased by 10%-30% by March 10th compared with the 1 previous year (NDSP, 2020a). Only 36% of rural households had direct access to fertilizers by 2 March 4th (NDSP, 2020b). 3 The breeding industry faced a serious feed shortage. Like other factories, feed mills were 4 closed during the epidemic. Distribution of feed and veterinary drugs were cut off to stop the virus 5 from spreading. As a result, many breeding farmers were short of feed stocks or even ran out of 6 feed. Some poultry farms had no choice but to bury their baby chicks and ducks. According to the 7 research from CAAS, over 60% of baby chicks were humanely disposed during the epidemic (Xin 8 et al., 2020). What's worse, the COVID-19 epidemic period overlapped with African swine fever 9 (ASF) in China, which had reduced the pork supply sharply last year. The obstruction in 10 veterinary drug transportation further crushed pig-breeding industry, bringing more difficulty in 11 maintaining pork supply and driving price higher. 12 The prevention and control measures broke the nature growth cycle of agricultural products, 14 which would further disrupt the normal cycles of food supply and increase market volatility in the 15 medium term. Agricultural production combines natural growth and economic activities. This 16 feature determines that the planting and breeding should follow a set time frame (Luo, 2020). The 17 failure to plant or breed at the right time may result in production reduction. 18 In terms of staple grain, the pandemic shocked the early rice most in China. February and winter wheat is much smaller because the time-critical works during the overwintering period are 1 less and simpler. The middle rice, late rice and maize, whose sowing stages range from April to 2 July across the whole country, were not affected directly. Considering the fact that the proportion 3 of early rice in total grain production is only 5%, the impact of the COVID-19 on the staple grain 4 is small. However, the risk of production reduction still raise concerns among the government and 5 the public. On one hand, China has a huge population and the demand for staple grain are 6 extremely inelastic. Reduction in supply may lead to soaring prices. On the other hand, this 7 pandemic may accelerate the shift of the rice cropping system from the "double seasons" to 8 "single season", which is believed to be a threat on the total production in the long term (Chen et 9 al., 2020b). 10 The production of livestocks and poultry was severely disrupted in February. Animals need 11 to eat every day, which requires intensive care from farmers (Zhang, 2020) . The supply chains of 12 perished food often operate on a "just in time" basis (Bruno et al., 2020). Therefore the timing of 13 inputs and selling is often inflexible (Stephens et al., 2020). Social distancing and mandatory 14 lockdown caused producers to miss some production windows, resulting in significant short-term 15 disruptions. The reduction in the chicken production was estimated to be 1.46 million tons in the 16 first quarter, which may reduce the total supply by 1.14 million tones in this year (Zhou et al., 17 2020). If quick actions could be taken to cope with this challenge, the short-term disruption would 18 not evolve to be a long-term shock in the entire year. Because poultry has a short production cycle, 19 and the reduction could be made up soon by the following season. China's pig industry, which is 20 already shocked by the ASF at the end of 2019 (WB, 2020), is hit again by the COVID-19. The 21 production is estimated to decrease by 10.5% and price increased by 25% in 2020 (Zhu et al., 22 Third, the decrease in off-farm income affects farmers' livelihoods, as well as their intentions 3 for production. Our survey found that many small farmers planned to seek off-farm jobs after the 4 epidemic to maintain their livelihood. If so, the amount of abandoned farmland may increase, 5 which would directly affect the production capacity. However, their plans may not be realized; 6 because the off-farm working, which accounts for over 40% of rural households' income in China 7 (Cheng and Zhu, 2020), is also squeezed sharply by the pandemic. The unemployment and 8 underemployment of rural migrants is one of the biggest problems during the pandemic (Ye et al., 9 2020). By March 7th, only 60% of the rural migrants had returned to work. As a result, the 10 disposable income per capita of rural residents declined by 4.7%, and the monthly income per 11 capita of rural migrants decreased by 7.9% in the first quarter (Wei and Lu, 2020). If these 12 difficulties remain unsolved, more population may step back into poverty and hunger, impacting 13 on the national goal of eliminating poverty by 2020. Constrained by limited cash flow and 14 financial liquidity of farmers, these problems could also affect the agricultural production. 15 Fortunately, the government is targeting these problems. From the end of January to late departments at all levels are required to open "green channels" for important agricultural products 1 and give priority to related transportation. The second is to match supply with demand. In addition 2 to CAPMA, MARA also organized other associations and e-commerce enterprises to achieve 3 direct matching and transactions. Farmers and local governments cooperate with e-commerce 4 platforms and arrange livestreaming events to boost online sales. The third is to ensure production 5 of important agricultural products. The measures includes differentiating labor movement control 6 measures in accordance with local risk levels, resuming the agricultural inputs production and 7 logistics, speeding up breeding industry and agricultural production, and direct financial supports 8 (FAO, 2020e). 9 The experiences in China indicate that difficulties in agricultural production should be 21 attached importance to as COVID-19 spreads. The impacts of the epidemic on food supply chain 22 started immediately from the "midstream" or "downstream" part, then will extend upward to the 1 "upstream" production part. The former has drawn wide attention, while the latter has not. With 2 more production-undermining cases observed around the world, we need to take urgent actions to 3 prevent or mitigate the negative effects. Especially for developing countries, protecting 4 agricultural production is the key to ensure food security and people's livelihood. China's 5 experiences could offer some suggestion to cope up with those challenges. 6 should not interfere the transportation channels for agricultural products. It is necessary to ensure 8 the smooth connection of supply-and-demand information. Regarding the sale of agricultural 9 products, priority must be determined according to the storage characteristics of each product. The 10 availability of cereal products must be ensured at all times. Also, perishable products, such as 11 vegetables and milk, can be transported to suburbs to ease the sales pressure. In addition, 12 e-commerce and delivery companies can help promote the connection between production and 13 sales. Provide various supports to agricultural production and farmers. Anti-epidemic training 2 and necessary epidemic prevention materials must be provided to production and logistics sectors. Also, compensation measures should be introduced to support production. For farmers or farms 4 with difficulties in production, targeted subsidies or low-interest loans should be provided. Rural 5 poverty-stricken households should be given income subsidies to ensure their livelihood. By 6 implementing these measures, farmers' motivations for agricultural production can be 7 strengthened and the capital, technology, and labor inputs for the next crop season can be 8 Make use of innovative methods to promote sales. Food demand during the epidemic is 10 only suppressed by prevention and control measures temporarily. The key is to find a new bridge 11 to match supply to demand as the traditional offline channels are cut off. The e-commerce has 12 shown enormous potential. The online platforms of the government, industrial associations and https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-covid-19-may-disrupt-food-supply-chains-developing-countr 5 ies (accessed 23 April 2020). 6 Reardon, T., Swinnen, J., 2020. COVID-19 and resilience innovations in food supply chains. 6 7 July 2020. 8 https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-and-resilience-innovations-food-supply-chains (accessed 9 7 July 2020). Dumped milk, smashed eggs Prepare food systems for a long-haul fight against COVID-19 Policy Brief: The Impact of COVID-19 on Food Security and Nutrition USMEF: Reaction of Chinese Consumers to H1N1 As COVID-19 spreads, no major concern for global food 14 security yet World Food Programme to assist largest number of hungry people ever, as 5 coronavirus devastates poor nations Food insecurity projections Responding to COVID-19 in China : Ensuring Food Security (English) World Bank Group. Disclosure date: 1 China-Ensuring-Food-Security The Economic Impact of Ebola on Sub-Saharan Africa: Updated Estimates for Chinese livestock farms struggle under COVID-19 restrictions The Impact of COVID-19 on China's Food Security and Suggestions for Ensuring Stable Grain Production Issues in Agricultural Measurement and countermeasures of on the 9 gap between supply and demand of livestock and poultry meat during the COVID-19 Consulting report for fight against the COVID-19 Agricultural Sciences Impacts of COVID-19 Epidemic on China's Pig Industry and 14 This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71903187); the Agricultural Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Key Program (CAAS-ZDRW202012), the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program (ASTIP-IAED-2020-01), the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program for Special Talent(ASTIP-IAED-2018RC-01), the Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research (161005202001-1-3, 161005202001-1-4) of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Mingzhe Pu, Yu ZhongThe authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.