key: cord-0774886-74p81yni
authors: Scheelhaase, Janina; Ennen, David; Frieske, Benjamin; Lütjens, Klaus; Maertens, Sven; Wozny, Florian
title: Wirtschaftspolitische Implikationen der COVID-19-Pandemie im Luftverkehr
date: 2021-02-20
journal: Wirtschaftsdienst
DOI: 10.1007/s10273-021-2851-3
sha: 428d8f74dbbd2b928d329f60b609372d995d0f1b
doc_id: 774886
cord_uid: 74p81yni

global air transport passenger traffic has been particularly affected by measures to combat COVID-19. Since February 2020, both the number of global passengers and passenger flight kilometers has decreased worldwide — in Western Europe by about 80 % by the end of 2020. These developments have caused financial losses for both airlines and airports worldwide, critically threatening the existence of a large number of these companies. As the industry is of great economic importance, special government support measures could contribute to the economic recovery of the aviation industry. However, not only should certain companies be supported, but the support measures should be linked to defined and transparent criteria.

Regelungen zur physischen Distanz, Einreiseverbote und Grenzschließungen die wesentlichen Gründe für Flugreisen, also Geschäftstermine, private Besuche und Tourismus, überwiegend weggefallen. Hinzu kommt die Verunsicherung vieler Menschen über die Ansteckungsgefahr während einer Reise. Schließlich führt die Pandemie trotz staatlicher Hilfsprogramme bei vielen Menschen zu Einkommensverlusten. Auf der Angebotsseite wurde diese Entwicklung durch behördlich angeordnete Angebotsreduzierungen fl ankiert, etwa in Form von Einfl ugverboten. Zudem wirken hier Kosten, die Flughäfen und Fluggesellschaften durch zusätzliche Hygienemaßnahmen entstehen. Schließlich sind die Fluggesellschaften durch die bisher genannten nachfrage-und angebotsseitigen Effekte gezwungen, Streckennetze und Angebotsfrequenzen deutlich zu reduzieren, was wiederum die Attraktivität des Transportangebots und damit die Luftverkehrsnachfrage weiter reduzieren kann. Somit sind zumindest vorübergehend wesentliche Treiber des Luftverkehrswachstums weggefallen und haben sich sogar ins Gegenteil verkehrt. Für die Luftverkehrsindustrie ist dies eine existenzbedrohende Krise. Kaum -100 % 1 / 2 0 2 0 2 / 2 0 2 0 3 / 2 0 2 0 4 / 2 0 2 0 5 / 2 0 2 0 6 / 2 0 2 0 7 / 2 0 2 0 8 / 2 0 2 0 9 / 2 0 2 0 1 / 2 0 1 9 2 / 2 0 1 9 3 / 2 0 1 9 4 / 2 0 1 9 5 / 2 0 1 9 6 / 2 0 1 9 7 / 2 0 1 9 8 / 2 0 1 9 9 / 2 0 1 9 1 0 / 2 0 1 9 1 1 / 2 0 1 9 1 2 / 2 0 1 9 -20 1 0 / 2 0 2 0 1 1 / 2 0 2 0 1 2 / 2 0 2 0 2 Fernost 1.000.838.858 8, 6 10, 4 Westeuropa 914.587.697 7,7 1,1 -1, 2 Südostasien 408.284.637 0, 7 16, [0] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] 1 Osteuropa 301.012.257 6,2 11,2 3,1 -36, 3 Südamerika 221.295.874 4, 0 11, 7 4, [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] 1 Südasien 210.097.623 1, 7 6, 6 4, 0 Golf 147.994.265 2, 2 9, 8 1, 0 Australien 87.983.556 1,1 5,5 -3, 6 -40,2 -90,0 -95,3 -91,7 -85,3 -87,6 -86,2 -80,8 -83,4 -62,0 -79,8 Mittlerer Osten 49.627.031 1,4 2,3 -6, 1 -41,8 -61,9 -92,2 -88,0 -69,7 -80,2 -76,7 -68,4 -77,5 -74,2 -71,0 Nordafrika 42.008.586 9,2 12,2 4, 5 -43,0 -86,7 -94,1 -93,0 -77,6 -85,4 -82,7 -77,7 -84,9 -76,7 - -6,5 -59,6 -88,7 -93,1 -81,1 -70,9 -64,9 -62,3 -69,3 -57,8 -60,0 -71,0 Ostafrika 28.917.921 6,6 15,0 10,1 -30, 6 -71,8 -90,9 -87,2 -73,5 -80,3 -75,1 -52,9 -74,8 -68,5 - 9 10, 6 6, [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] 9 Westafrika 18.326.609 14, 9 12, 6 8, [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] 4 Zentralafrika 9.075.929 -3,6 6,3 -0, 5 Zentralasien 8.342.277 3, 1 33, 5 11, 8 

Quelle: International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO, 2021).

Abbildung 3 Szenarien 1 und 2: Entwicklung der globalen Passagierzahlen im Vergleich zur Baseline und zu 2019 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 6 1 9 6 8 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 5 0 1 9 5 2 1 9 5 4 1 9 5 6 1 9 5 8 1 6 8 0 

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Abstract: Global air transport passenger traffi c has been particularly affected by measures to combat