key: cord-0768836-o3p92gx0 authors: Ahmar, Ansari Saleh; Boj, Eva title: Will Covid-19 confirmed cases in the USA reach 3 million? A forecasting approach using SutteARIMA date: 2020-09-28 journal: nan DOI: 10.1016/j.crbeha.2020.100002 sha: d2795ea5f5041185887e12f781660e4648fbeae9 doc_id: 768836 cord_uid: o3p92gx0 Objectives Examining about forecasting the number of Covid-19 cases in the US can provide an overview and projection of the development of Covid-19 cases in the US so that policy makers can determine the steps that must be taken. The aim of this study was to seen whether Covid-19 confirmed cases in the US would reach 3 million cases with the SutteARIMA method forecasting approach. Methods Data from this study were obtained from the Worldometer 15 February 2020 – 2 July 2020. Data from 15 February 2020 – 25 June 2020 was used to do data fitting (26 June 2020 – 2 July 2020). Data fitting is used to see the extent of the accuracy of the SutteARIMA method in predicting data. To see the level of data accuracy, the MAPE method is used. Results The results of forecasting data fitting on 26 June 2020 – 2 July 2020: 2544732; 2590888; 2632477; 2671055; 2711798; 2755128; 2803729. The accuracy of SutteARIMA for the period 26 June 2020 – 2 July 2020 based on MAPE is 0.539% and forecasting results to obtain as many as 3 million confirmed cases, namely from from 05 – 06 June 2020: 1981299; 2005706; 2030283; 2055031. Conclusions The SutteARIMA method predicts that 2 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 will be obtained on the WHO situation report day 168-170 or 05 – 07 June 2020. The first confirmed cases of Covid-19 in USA was reported on 20 January 2020, in Snohomish County, Washington DC [1] [2] [3] . Covid-19 is an infectious disease caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) discovered in China [4] . Based on data presented by Worldometer on 20 April 2020, the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in United State was 792,759 cases or added 28,123 cases from yesterday (19 April 2020) with 42,514 total deaths and was the first highest country with confirmed cases of covid-19 in the world [5] . To see the case rate further in the future, it is necessary to forecast the data. Forecasting COVID-19 is important to see an overview of the increase in COVID-19 cases from time to time so that it can be considered in decision making to preventive and control of disease, this is in accordance with the statement Myers et. al. [6] SutteARIMA is used in this study because this method is a combination of ARIMA and α-Sutte Indicator method in which ARIMA method is used by several health researchers to monitor and predict the development of a disease and SutteARIMA has a small value of MAPE when compared to ARIMA. The formula of SutteARIMA [12, 13] : Data from this study were obtained from the Worldometer from 15 February 2020 -02 July 2020. Data from 15 February 2020 to 25 June 2020 was used to do data fitting (26 June 2020 -2 July 2020). Data fitting is used to see the extent of the accuracy of the SutteARIMA method in predicting data. To see the level of data accuracy, the MAPE method is used. The forecasting methods used freely available data from the public platform source with no primary data collection to human and animal subjects. Therefore, no institutional review board approval is needed. The total confirmed cases and daily new cases in USA can be seen in figure 1 and figure 2 . To further see the possibility of achieving 3 million confirmed cases in the USA, it is necessary to forecast the data. Forecasting method used in this study uses the SutteARIMA method. The first stage carried out in this study is to look at the level of forecasting accuracy. Testing the accuracy of forecasting from the SutteARIMA method is done by fitting the data Based on figure 1 it can be seen that the Covid-19 confirmed case has an upward trend from time to time. This trend gives an indication that 2 million cases will be achieved in a short time. This is also reinforced from figure 2 which shows that the average number of daily confirmed cases is around 40,000-60,000 cases (last 3 days) and if it refers to the moving cverage chart (5 periods) then the addition of cases per day will be around 40,000-50,000 cases (last 3 days). The table 1 shown the accuracy of SutteARIMA for the period 26 June 2020 -2 July 2020 is 0.539%. By looking at the value of the small level of accuracy of the SutteARIMA method, the SutteARIMA method is used to predict when USA confirmed cases reach 3 million cases. According to table 2, SutteARIMA method predicts 3 million cases of COVID-19 in the USA will be obtained on 168-170 day from the WHO situation report or 05-07 July 2020. The SutteARIMA method is a combination of the ARIMA method and the α-Sutte Indicator. In this study, the SutteARIMA method has an accuracy rate on data fittings of 0.539%. Based on the results of this study, the SutteARIMA method predicts 3 million cases will be obtained on 168-170 day from the WHO situation report or 05 -07 July 2020. It is expected that from the results of this study, it can provide input to the USA government to be able to take policies to spread Covid-19 did not become severe, because based on the results of the continued analysis of the SutteARIMA method, if the addition of these cases is stagnant, it is predicted that there will be around 4 million cases on end of July 2020. First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States Isolation and characterization of SARS-CoV-2 from the first US COVID-19 patient The deadly coronaviruses: The 2003 SARS pandemic and the 2020 novel coronavirus epidemic in China Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health Forging An Optimized Bayesian Network Model With Selected Parameters For Detection of The Coronavirus In Delta State of Nigeria Clustering method for spread pattern analysis of corona-virus (COVID-19) infection in Iran Association of comorbidities with pneumonia and death among COVID-19 patients in Mexico: A nationwide cross-sectional study 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from SutteARIMA: Short-term forecasting method, a case: Covid-19 and stock market in Spain The date predicted 200.000 cases of Covid-19 in Spain The authors have no conflicts of interest associated with the material presented in this paper. None. Spreading Forecast Recommendation to preventive and control The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.