key: cord-0733016-qlkzee70 authors: Raknes, G.; Strom, M. S.; Sulo, G.; Overland, S. N.; Roelants, M.; Juliusson, P. B. title: Lockdown and non-COVID-19 deaths: Cause-specific mortality during the first wave of the 2020 pandemic in Norway. A population-based register study date: 2021-02-19 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.09.21251326 sha: f4792a84bb430aa257cbae37abe16a59ab19f6ed doc_id: 733016 cord_uid: qlkzee70 Objective To explore the potential impact of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on all cause and cause-specific mortality in Norway. Design Population based register study. Setting The Norwegian cause of Death Registry and the National Population Register of Norway. Participants All recorded deaths in Norway during March to May from 2010 to 2020. Main outcome measures Rate (per 100 000) of all-cause mortality and causes of death in the EU Shortlist for Causes of Death March to May 2020. The rates were age-standardised and adjusted to a 100% register coverage and compared with a 95% prediction interval (PI) based on corresponding rates for 2010-2019. Results 113 710 deaths were included, of which 10 226 from 2020. We did not observe any deviation from predicted total mortality. There were fewer than predicted deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases excluding asthma (11.4, 95% PI 11.8 to 15.2) and from other non-ischemic, non-rheumatic heart diseases (13.9, 95% PI 14.5 to 20.2). The death rates were higher than predicted for Alzheimer's disease (7.3, 95% PI 5.5 to 7.3) and diabetes mellitus (4.1, 95% PI 2.1 to 3.4). Conclusions There was no significant difference in the frequency of the major causes of death in the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in Norway. An increase in diabetes mellitus deaths and reduced mortality due to some heart and lung conditions may be linked to infection control measures. . 1 0 5 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) 1 0 6 A f i l l e d i n S T R O B E c h e c k l i s t f o r c r o s s s e c t i o n a l s t u d i e s i s s u b m i t t e d . W e a r e a w a r e t h a t t h i s i s n o t 1 0 7 i n t e n d e d f o r p o p u l a t i o n b a s e d r e g i s t e r s t u d i e s , b u t m o s t i t e m s i n t h e S T R O B E c h e c k l i s t a r e r e l e v a n t . 1 0 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) 1 1 a n a l y s e s w e r e p e r f o r m e d o n a g g r e g a t e d d a t a , w e d i d n o t h a v e a c c e s s t o d i r e c t l y o r i n d i r e c t l y 2 0 6 p e r s o n i d e n t i f i a b l e d a t a a t a n y t i m e . U p d a t e d d a t a a r e p u b l i c l y a v a i l a b l e f r o m t h e d a t a r e p o s i t o r y R a t e s o f a l l c a u s e s , d i s e a s e s , a n d l e v e l -1 E U s h o r t l i s t c a u s e s o f d e a t h a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 2 w h i l e 2 2 2 r a t e s o f a l l ( l e v e l 1 t o 3 ) E U s h o r t l i s t c a u s e s o f d e a t h a r e p r e s e n t e d i n S u p p l e m e n t a r y t a b l e 1 . 2 2 3 O b s e r v a t i o n s f o r a l l c a u s e s , d i s e a s e s , a n d e x t e r n a l c a u s e s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) 1 6 3 0 1 3 0 2 O n l y 2 1 6 N o r w e g i a n s d i e d f r o m C O V I D -1 9 i n M a r c h t o M a y 2 0 2 0 , a n d t h e i n f e c t i o n r a t e w a s a l s o v e r y 3 0 3 l o w . . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted February 19, 2021. p o p u l a t i o n s d u r i n g C O V I D -1 9 , a n d t h a t c l i n i c a l d i a b e t e s s e r v i c e s h a v e b e e n d i s r u p t e . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) N ΓΈ r g a a r d S K , V e s t e r g a a r d L S , N i e l s e n J e t a l . R e a l -t i m e m o n i t o r i n g s h o w s s u b s t a n t i a l e x c e s s 4 0 0 a l l -c a u s e m o r t a l i t y d u r i n g s e c o n d w a v e o f C O V I D -1 9 i n E u r o p e , O c t o b e r t o D e c e m b e r 2 0 2 Observed and predicted death rates (linear) with 95% confidence bands for all-4 1 5 cause mortality (panel a), total mortality excluding external causes (panel b) and mortality 4 1 6 due to external causes (panel c . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. Deaths March to May Suicide and intentional self-harm Death rate Unadjusted rate 95% prediction band 95% confidence band Regression