key: cord-0712208-644d1i1n
authors: Mostafa, Mohamed K.; Gamal, Gamil; Wafiq, A.
title: The impact of COVID 19 on air pollution levels and other environmental indicators - A case study of Egypt
date: 2020-10-10
journal: J Environ Manage
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111496
sha: c6a521c06f9715eb9194085aeacc48bc0971e4af
doc_id: 712208
cord_uid: 644d1i1n

The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) not only affected health and economics, but also its effect extended to include other aspects, such as the environment. Using Egypt as a case study, this paper presents the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on air pollution levels by studying nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), ozone (O(3)), particulate matter represented in absorbing aerosol index (AAI), carbon monoxide (CO), and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The paper also highlights the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on other environmental indicators including environmental noise, medical and municipal solid wastes. The paper presents the Egyptian COVID-19 story from its different angles including the development of confirmed COVID-19 cases, containment measures from the government, the impact on the country’s economy and the national energy consumption so as to effectively evaluate the effect on both the air pollution levels and the other studied environmental indicators. For the other environmental indicators, a strong link was observed between COVID-19 lockdown and the reduction in environmental noise, beaches, surface and groundwater pollution. For environmental noise, this has been confirmed by officially governmental announcements which reported that the level of environmental noise in Egypt was reduced by about 75% during the lockdown period. On the other hand, there are some negative effects, including an increase in medical solid waste (from 70 to 300 ton/day), municipal solid waste, as well as a less efficient solid waste recycling process. For air pollution levels, the data were obtained from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and European Space Agency satellite data sets. The data for the lockdown period in 2020 have been extracted and compared to the corresponding months in the selected baseline period (2015-2019) to identify the effect that the lockdown period had on the air pollution levels in Egypt with focus on Cairo and Alexandria governorates. It was found that the AAI decreased by about 30%, the NO(2) decreased by 15 and 33% over Cairo and Alexandria governorates, respectively, and that the CO decreased by about 5% over both governorates. In addition, the GHG emissions in Egypt were reduced by at least 4% during the pandemic. In contrast, ozone levels increased by about 2% over Cairo and Alexandria governorates. It can be concluded that the implemented containment measures during COVID-19 pandemic had resulted in both positive and negative environmental impacts. The positive environmental impacts are not sustainable and deterioration on them is expected to occur after the lockdown as it was before the pandemic. Therefore, stricter laws must be enacted to protect the environment in Egypt.

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2) originated in Wuhan city, China, on 47

December 2019 (Gautam, 2020a; Gautam, 2020b). The World Health Organization (WHO) declared 48

COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 after the confirmed cases globally have reached 118,319 cases 49 in over 110 countries (WHO, 2020a; TIME, 2020). As of June 4, 2020, the virus has spread further to 50 reach almost every country on the earth (216 in total) (WHO, 2020b). According to the situation Report 51 number 136 published by WHO on June 4, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 has 52 exceeded 6.4 million, while the total deaths have exceeded 382,000 people (WHO, 2020c). These cases 53

are distributed all over the world as following: 47.1% in Americas, 34.5% in Europe, 8.9% in Eastern 54

Mediterranean, 4.8% in South-East Asia, 2.9% in Western Pacific, and 1.8% in Africa (WHO, 2020b). 55

The novel coronavirus was reported to be an acute respiratory disease attacking both upper and lower 56 respiratory systems resulting in a severe respiratory distress syndrome (Gautam and Trivedi 2020; under control and did not exceed 200 cases (Trading Economics, 2020). This may be related to "Stay at 62

home" campaign that has been lunched by the Egyptian government (Ahramonline, 2020a) , as well as the 63 containment actions implemented by the government to control COVID-19 pandemic. The containment 64

actions included: (1) closing all schools and universities, in-dining restaurants, places of worship, and 65 monuments;

(2) cancelling touristic trips and cultural events; (3) applying curfew between 8 pm and 6 am 66 (Egypt local time); (4) closing all airports and suspending international flights; (5) banning the export of 67 infection control products based on two decrees issued by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MTI) for a 68 period of three months, including alcohol, face masks, and derivatives; (6) cutting the number of public 69

sector employees going to work in half; and (7) providing a fund for 300,000 seasonal workers to 70 encourage them to stay at home (OECD, 2020; Ahramonline, 2020b) . From the beginning of April 24, the 71 number has increased rapidly. This may be attributed to people preparation for the holy month of 72

Ramadan (Muslims' month of fasting which began on April 23 and ended on May 23) by going to grocery 73 stories for shopping. This increase is also due to families and friends gathering to break their fast together 74 (WHO, 2020d). Figure 1 shows the daily confirmed cases from March 6 to June 5 in 2020. On June 1, the 75 number of confirmed cases in Egypt reached its peak, with about 1,540 new cases. From May 22 to June 76 1, the number of reported COVID-19 cases per day increased rapidly. This may be related to Festival of 77

Breaking the Fast (Eid al-Fitr) which follow the month of Ramadan. From June 1 to June 7, the number of 78

reported COVID-19 cases per day has decreased, referring to the stringent quarantine measures applied 79 by the government. This decrease is may also due to the new ministerial decree that enforce people to 80 3 wear face masks in public, where the uncommitted people will be subject to a fine that may reach 4,000 81

Egyptian pound (~ 250 US dollar) (Ahramonline, 2020c) . 82

The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) not only affected health and economics, but also its 83 effect extended to include other aspects, such as the environment ( 

The start will be with an analysis to the potential impacts of COVID-19 on various environmental 182 indicators (other than air pollution) based on literature. For some indicators, such analysis has been 183 confirmed by the officially announced governmental numbers as will be shown below. 184 185

Egypt is suffering for a long time from a deterioration of its ground and surface water. This is mainly due 188

to discharge of heavily polluted industrial and domestic wastewaters into its waterways without sufficient The water quality in these lakes are also expected to improve due to the temporary closure of some 202

industries.

The reduction in industrial activities in Egypt is also expected to some extent to improve groundwater 204 quality since the main aquifer in Egypt (Nile aquifer) is recharged from the Nile river and its branches, as 205

well as canals and drains networks located in the Nile Delta. The pollution in the Mediterranean Sea is 206 also expected to decrease since its connected to both Rosetta and the Damietta branches. The water 207 quality at the Suez Canal is also expected to improve during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic due to the 208 reduction in the number of ships. A report published by International Food Policy Research Institute 209

(IFPRI) expects a 15% reduction in Suez Canal revenues during the pandemic (Breisinger et al., 2020) . 210 211

The coastlines of the Egypt are over 3,500 km in length that extend along the Red Sea and the Eastern 214

Mediterranean ( 

Environmental noise is one of the top environmental risks to public health and it is defined as an 228

unwanted or harmful sound generated by commercial or industrial activities, as well as human activities, 229

such as transportation (railway, road traffic, and aircraft), and melodies at high volume (WHO, 2020e; 230

Zambrano-Monserrate et al., 2020). High exposure to environmental noise may lead to release of stress 231

hormones and may cause some diseases, such as arteriosclerosis, hypertension, a stroke, or myocardial 232

infarction (Muzet, 2007 

The food consumption in Egypt has increased since the outbreak of COVID-19 as a result of the curfew 242

and "Stay at home" campaign. According to the Community Mobility Report published by Google, 243 mobility trends for places of residence increased by about 20% compared to the baseline (Google, 2020). 244

Staying at home encourages people to overeat which lead to an increase in organic solid waste generated 245 per capita. Egypt has also witnessed a significant increase (940%) in the online shopping due to COVID-246

19 transmission fears (Nile Fm, 2020), which in turn led to an increase in both organic and inorganic solid 247

wastes. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, safe disposal of municipal solid waste has become a big 248 challenge, especially that the prevailing disposal practice in Egypt is through dropping the wastes in 249 opened unregulated site without precautions to protect the environment. This wastes are now 250 considered hazardous because they may include waste from infected residents, as well as an infected 251

personal protective equipment such as gloves and masks. There is also a big concern worldwide regarding 252 the risk of SARS-CoV-2 spreading in recycling facilities. For example, USA has suspended the recycling 253 programs in some cities to prevent the spread of the virus (Zambrano-Monserrate et al., 2020). In Egypt, 254 recycling facilities are operating normally even during the COVID-19 lockdown. However, they are 255 operating with less than half of their workforce after allowing the workers who have chronic diseases or 256

compromised immune systems to stop working and stay at home. This action negatively affects the 257 efficiency of the recycling process, as well as the quality of the final products (composts and refused 258 derived fuel (RDF)). 259

Hospitals in Egypt produces an average of 70.5 tons/day of medical waste (SWEEP-Net, 2014), less than 260 50% of these amount are safely and efficiently discarded through incineration (El Dirini, 2017 The concern regarding the transmission of COVID-19 in water and wastewater has increased after 279

detecting COVID-19 (as well as other coronaviruses) in the anal swabs and stool samples of some following an improving economic performance before the COVID-19 pandemic. The enhanced 309

performance metrics include gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, unemployment rate, inflationary 310

and debt-to-GDP ratio (OECD, 2020). However, the COVID-19 pandemic will have significant negative 311 implications on the Egyptian economy at least in 2020 and 2021. This is attributed to several factors 312

including the slowing down of the global trade and accordingly negatively affecting the revenues of Suez 313

Canal, the nearly stoppage of the tourism activities, and the decline of remittances (the three factors 314

constituting considerable share of the foreign currency revenues to the country) (Breisinger et al., 2020) . 315

For Suez Canal, and as it is a vital shortcut for global commerce, it is negatively affected by COVID-19 316

pandemic where it is estimated that its revenues may decline by between 10 and 15 percent according to 317

the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies (ECES). Actually, Suez Canal revenues may be even affected 318 much more as the World Trade Organization expects that the World trade in 2020 will decline by 13%-319 32% (World Trade Organization, 2020). As for the tourism, and according to the ECES as well, between 320 70 and 80 percent of hotel bookings have been cancelled (Egyptian Center for Economic Studies. 2020a). 321

The Government of Egypt has just recently announced the partial activation of the local tourism activities 322 in coastal touristic cities; however, it is expected that the international tourism will be nearly blocked till 323

the end of 2020. The government estimates losses of around USD 12.5 billion this year from this sector, 324

and about 1.4 million people employed by the sector is expected to be negatively affected. For 325 remittances, it is expected that they will decline between 10 to 15% due to the facts that the workers are 326 not able to return back to their countries because of flight restrictions, and some low-skilled labour may 327 lose their jobs due to the current economic crisis affecting all the businesses (Egyptian Center for 328

Economic Studies, 2020b years. In addition, the main index of the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX30) had a significant decrease of 332 39% compared to February 2020 (OECD 2020). Based on interviews with many of the key industrial 333 facilities in Egypt, a lot of them are working on lower production capacity compared to the business as 334 usual due to the generally lower demand during the pandemic crisis. As for the big commercial facilities 335 like malls, social and sports clubs, and restaurants, the partial curfew imposed by the government will 336 significantly cause to cutting off some of the jobs. On the other hand, and away from the formal sectors, 337

COVID-19 pandemic is causing severe negative economic impacts on the informal sector which 338

represents 63% of the total employment and between 30-40% of GDP. Due to the lack of health and 339

social insurance in such sector, a lot of workers will lose their jobs, causing around 12% of people to fall 340 from poverty into extreme poverty and driving 44.4% (12.9 million workers) below the poverty line 341 (OECD 2020). A report published by IFPRI expects between 0.7 and 0.8% reduction in national GDP for 342 each month during the pandemic (Breisinger et al., 2020) . 343

In addition to the clear negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Egyptian economy, many of the 344 above-mentioned economic factors (especially the partial curfew imposed by the government, reduction 345 of industrial activities, general economy slow down, and stoppage of touristic activities) have their clear 346

impact on the country's energy consumption during COVID-19 pandemic. According to official 347 statements from the National Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, the average daily 348

consumption of gasoline has reduced by about 25% (from 18,000 to 14,000 ton), while the average daily 349 diesel consumption reduced by about 8-10% (from about 36,500 to 33,000 ton). As for electricity 350 consumption, The Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency (EgyptERA) 351

has announced that the consumption has reduced in the range of 4-7% (about 2 GW) compared to the 352 same period last year. According to EgypERA, the commercial sector was the main contributor to such 353 decrease (especially that their business as usual before the pandemic was operation till late times at night), 354 while the domestic consumption rates have slightly increased due to the longer periods that citizens stay 355 at home during the pandemic. The potential impact of such reduction in energy consumption on the air 356 pollution levels in Egypt during the lockdown will be investigated in this research work. 357

The authors have mainly relied on satellite monitoring to get measurements for the different air pollutants Limitations associated with using satellite tools for air quality monitoring and analysis include lack of 373 specificity with respect to some air pollutants, as well as an occasionally absence of data normally 374 obtained by polar-orbiting satellites due to non-covering bands in tropics ( 

The data for NO 2 emissions was retrieved from OMI for three months (February, March, and April) for 413 the period from 2015 to 2020. The measured data for the targeted three months in year 2020 representing 414 the pandemic time (Figure 2a ) was compared to the data for the same months from the previous years 415

(from 2015 to 2019) (Figure 2b ) to logically identify whether the implemented containment measures 416

during COVID-19 outbreak has caused a change in NO 2 emission or not. In Figure 2 , the darker the color, 417

the higher NO 2 concentration/emission. It is obvious that the orange color in Figure 2a is darker than the 418 orange color in Figure 2b , indicating a reduction in NO 2 emission in 2020 during the pandemic time 419

comparing to previous 5 years. Figure 2c also shows that the NO 2 emission has decreased in year 2020 by 420

about 3 x 10 15 , 0.8 x 10 15 , and 1.5 x 10 15 molecules/cm 2 for February, March, and April, respectively, 421

comparing to the same month from the previous 5 years. This is mainly attributed to reductions in traffic 422

and industrial activities during the pandemic. This is also matching with the figures generated from the 423

Google community mobility reports which have been developed based on the anonymized data-sets from 424 users (Google, 2020). Therefore, the implemented containment measures during COVID-19 outbreak 425

have improved the air quality in Egypt. 426 427 pandemic have reduced the NO 2 emission and thus improved air quality, however, this improvement is 455 not sustainable and deterioration on air quality is expected to occur after the lockdown as it was before the 456 pandemic, as the case in China (Abnett, 2020) . Therefore, stricter laws must be enacted to protect the 457 environment in Egypt. 458 levels from the automobiles are high, the VOC/NO x ratio is low. In such conditions, and in case of any 481 significant reduction in NO x , the complex photochemical reaction mechanism favors the formation of O 3 . 482

On the other hand, in rural areas and where the VOC/NO x ratio is relatively high, the O 3 is directly 483

proportional to NO x (Finlayson-Pitts and Pitts, 2000). This is even clearer in Figure 4b which presents the 484 difference in concentrations between February 2020 (directly before COVID-19 partial lockdown) and 485

March-April 2020 (February subtracted from March-April). As can be noticed, the traffic-congested 

As shown in Figure 6 , the 2020 AAI in Egypt was about 30% lower than the AAI level during the same 519 period in 2019, which confirms the positive effect of COVID-19 on the air quality in Egypt. has shown that the PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratio is less than 0.5 which was attributed to the tyre and brake wear (due 528 to traffic congestion), desert environment, having many areas undergoing construction activities and the 529 presence of many unmaintained roads. The containment measures undertook by the Egyptian government 530

has led to less traffic flow and relatively less construction activities. The less traffic flow generally causes 531 less PM emissions from vehicles' engines especially from the old taxis and public transportation buses, 532

less PM emissions from tyre and brake wear, in addition to less entrained PM emissions from the 533 unmaintained roads. In order to assess whether the air pollution levels are more influenced by the partial 534 lockdown compared to the variation in the meteorological conditions, the AAI values in 2020 has also 535 been compared to a longer baseline period (2015-2019). As shown in Figure 2014). Such results seem logic especially that it has been reported in a previous study by the Egyptian 560

Ministry of Environment that the transport sector accounts for about 90% of the CO emissions. In order to 561 assess whether the air pollution levels are more influenced by the partial lockdown compared to the 562 variation in the meteorological conditions, the CO concentrations in 2020 has also been compared to a 563 longer baseline period (2015-2019). As shown in Figure 9 , One of the main positive environmental impacts of COVID-19 worldwide is the reduction in the 584 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In Egypt specifically, and due to the reduction in fossil fuels and 585 electricity consumption as mentioned above, the GHG emission levels decreased compared to the 586 business as usual scenario. According to Egypt's first biennial update report (BUR) submitted to 587 UNFCCC, the energy sector represents 64.5% of the country's GHG emissions, of which the electricity 588 generation represents 43% and transport represents 23%. In transport, Gasoline fuel nearly represents 589 38% of the GHG emissions, and Diesel fuel represents 51%. Hence, the consumption of electricity and 590 transport fuels constitute around 43% of the country's GHG emissions. Knowing the percentages 591 reduction in resources consumption during COVID-19 situation (listed above), it can be calculated that 592

Egypt has at least reduced 4% of its GHG emissions. This value is conservative since a lot of other 593 activities has not yet been quantified especially the industrial ones. The global estimates for the potential 594 GHG reductions in 2020 range between 4.5% and 8% (Evans, 2020; Gabbatiss, 2020). It is interesting to 595 note that the current global GHG reduction levels can be considered as a simulation to the efforts needed 596 by all the countries to help achieve the annual 7.6% GHG reduction required to be on the ambitious 1.5 o C 597 global warming pathway. 598 599

It worth noting that after noticing the improved air quality and environmental noise, the Egyptian prime 600 minister's cabinet is currently considering to shorten the night working hours of shopping and dining 601 (Egypt Independent, 2020c ). This will not only improve the environmental situation of the country, but 602 also impose economic benefits by decreasing the import of fossil fuels (due to the foreseen reduction of 603 energy consumption) and social benefits by allowing the families to spend more time together in the 604 J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 22 evenings. If such initiative will be really applied, this will be a rare case study for mitigating the expected 605 rebound after the end of the pandemic. 606 607

The environmental conventions have always called for decoupling the economic growth from 608 environmental degradation. The results of this research work and the similar ones mainly present the 609 environmental benefits achieved during COVID-19; however, it is clear that this is not sustainable at all 610 due to the acute economic losses associated. In addition, it is expected that the economic crisis that 611 resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic will postpone the investment in clean and innovative 612

technologies; hence, outweighing the environmental benefits achieved during the COVID-19 lockdown 613

period (Gillingham et al., 2020). Moreover, and as was the case with previous economic crisis in 2008, it 614

is estimated that that there will be post-crisis rebound in the emissions (Le Quéré et al., 2020). Hence, all 615 the countries still have a lot of work to do to be effectively on the sustainable economic growth pathway. 616 617

This study revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic has a great effect on all aspects of life in Egypt 619

including health, economic, and environment. Between 0.7 and 0.8% reduction in Egypt's national GDP 620

is expected for each month during the pandemic. There is also a strong link between economic growth 621 and energy consumption, where the average daily consumption of gasoline and diesel has reduced by 622 about 25 and 9%, respectively, during the pandemic. This paper also revealed that the COVID-19 623 pandemic has positively affected some environmental aspects and negatively affected some other aspects. 624

The positive effects include a reduction in beaches, surface and groundwater pollution, as well as a 625 reduction in environmental noise (around 75%) and some air pollutants. The reduction in NO 2 reached 15 626 and 33% over Cairo and Alexandria governorates, respectively. This is mainly attributed to reductions in 627 traffic and industrial activities during the pandemic, is matching with the figures generated from the 628

Google community mobility reports, and also matches with the fact that in normal conditions, the vehicles 629 in Greater Cairo are responsible for 50% of the NO 2 emissions. The AAI of Egypt decreased by about 630 30% during lockdown. This is attributed to the containment measures undertook by the Egyptian 631 government that led to less traffic flow and relatively less construction activities. The less traffic flow 632 generally causes less PM emissions from vehicles' engines especially from the old taxis and public 633 transportation buses, less PM emissions from tyre and brake wear, in addition to less entrained PM 634 emissions from the unmaintained roads. A 5% reduction was also recorded for CO in Cairo and 635

Alexandria due to the less traffic congestion resulting from the partial lockdown policy especially from 636 the light-duty vehicles. Such results seem logic especially that it has been reported in a previous study by 637

the Egyptian Ministry of Environment that the transport sector accounts for about 90% of the CO 638 emissions. In total, the GHG emissions in Egypt has reduced by at least 4% during the pandemic. This 639 value is conservative since a lot of other activities has not yet been quantified especially the industrial 640

ones. The negative environmental effects for the COVID-19 include an increase in medical waste 641 generation (from 70 to 300 ton/day), municipal and solid waste generation, less efficient solid waste 642

recycling process, as well as an increase in ozone level by about 2% over Cairo and Alexandria 643

governorates. The ozone increase has been attributed to the low VOC/NO x ratio in traffic-congested urban 644 cities (where the NO x levels from the automobiles are high), where in such conditions the complex 645 photochemical reaction mechanism favors the formation of ozone when NO x decreases. It is expected that 646

there the economic crisis that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic will postpone the investment in 647 clean and innovative technologies; hence, outweighing the environmental benefits achieved during the 648 COVID-19 lockdown period (Gillingham et al., 2020). Moreover, and as was the case with previous 649 economic crisis in 2008, it is estimated that that there will be post-crisis rebound in the emissions. Putting 650 into consideration that it is expected to have post-crisis rebound in the environmental emissions, it has to 651 be noted that the positive impacts of COVID-19 on the environment in Egypt is not sustainable and 652 actions must be taken by officials in Egypt to control water air pollution while keeping a balance between 653 economic growth and protecting the environment. 654 655

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that 658

could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. 659 660

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• NO 2 decreased over Cairo (~ 15%) and Alexandria (~ 33%)

GHG emissions of Egypt decreased by about 30% and 4%, respectively

• An average reduction in CO about 5% over Cairo and Alexandria

• Ozone level over Cairo and Alexandria governorates increased by about 2%

• Reduction in environmental noise, beaches, surface and groundwater pollution

• Increase municipal and medical wastes and less efficient waste recycling

This research was supported by Badr University in Cairo (BUC) and Cairo University. Some of the 662 analyses and visualizations used in this paper were produced with the Giovanni online data system, 663developed and maintained by the NASA GES DISC. 664

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☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f