key: cord-0706863-0ymx1asy
authors: Ahmed, Jasim Uddin; Akter, Saifun; Majumder, Kausar Ahmed
title: Impact of COVID‐19 on agricultural production and distribution in South Asia
date: 2021-10-26
journal: World Food Policy
DOI: 10.1002/wfp2.12032
sha: c770b3a4c959942d14dd29055517c31b52fdadf5
doc_id: 706863
cord_uid: 0ymx1asy

COVID‐19 conveyed threats to the development of social life and the economy. Social distancing has changed the way of living, with a profound impact on food and agriculture. With this concern, the study was conducted to assess the impact of COVID‐19 on agricultural production and distribution in South Asia. Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan were selected as the study countries since larger agricultural production countries with higher virus invasion numbers posed higher vulnerability than others. It is necessary to unfold the impacts and policy on the agricultural sector so that losses can reduce. The secondary data were taken from different sources. The study proved that limited transportation, shortages of agricultural labor, export, and import restriction hampered agricultural production and distribution in South Asia. Livestock, vegetable, fruit, and fishing sector were more affected than the crop sector. Small poultry farms were closed, milk was discarded, and rotted fruits and vegetables were a source of concern. Different policies were implemented by the governments to recover from production losses. Proper storage management and farm mechanization may reduce the loss of production. Decentralization efforts of government through local (political and co‐operative association) leaders may place the agricultural product to the market at least health hazards.

COVID-19 is a disease called an emergency all over the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 as a pandemic on March 11, 2020 (Haque, 2020) . COVID-19 was found in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Within a short period, the virus was being spread all over the world. The healthcare sector has begun to suffer. Within a few months, confirmed cases and death tolls announced the breakdown of health system. Social distancing was the only measure to minimize infection. Many countries have announced national lockdowns, curfews, and emergencies in order to save their citizens. Lockdowns prompted the disruption of livelihoods in both the developed and developing world (Varshney et al., 2021) .

The crisis of COVID-19 has posed serious challenges (Haque, 2020) particularly in developing countries. In developing economies, agriculture plays an indispensible role in economic development. Agriculture is unavoidable to ensure national food and nutritional security (Anik et al., 2017) . South Asia consists of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with about 25% of the world's population. South Asia is the most densely populated region with an area of 5.2 million square kilometers (1% of the world's area). In the meantime, 57% of the total South Asia is arable land or agricultural land (AFA, 2019) . In South Asia, agriculture offers livelihood to more than 70% of the people. Agriculture employs about 60% of the total labor force with a contribution of 22% of the regional domestic product (Aryal et al., 2020) . Different reports stated that, before the pandemic, about 649 million people in South Asia were moderately or severely food-insecure (Rasul, 2021) and 271 million were severely food-insecure. Researchers are concerned about a worsening of the food insecurity situation as a result of COVID-19.

Apart from healthcare crisis, global economic pain has developed as people are asked to stay at home. Many sectors have been hit by this pandemic and food and agriculture are not outside the impact of COVID-19 (Anshumali et al., 2021) . Social distancing, decreased transportation, reduction of the mobility of labor, and disruption of the entire food supply chain are (Zafrin, 2020 ) just a few of the problems. Food safety and security are a global concern in the present scenario. The level of impact of COVID-19 on food security differs from country to country, since it depends on the volume of agricultural production for every country (Mouloudj et al., 2020) . Still, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is unfolding in South Asia and globally (Amjath-Babu et al., 2020) . As an effort to gather more impacts of COVID-19 on agriculture, this study was prepared across the South Asian countries.

The broad objective of the study is to evaluate how COVID-19 affected the South Asian countries agriculture. This paper aims

• To grasp the impacts of COVID-19 in terms of agricultural production and distribution in South Asian countries; • To identify the policies taken to minimizes the impact of COVID-19 on agriculture; and • To recommend some policies based on the synopsis of COVID-19 impacts on agriculture.

This research is descriptive in nature. Secondary sources of data have been used for this study. A number of reports from news agencies, national and international sites, web blogs, web newsletters, different agriculture research organizations' reports, articles, and journals have been used to write this paper.

All countries in the world have faced troubles due to COVID-19. Particularly, South Asian countries have had to deal with a more challenging situation because of their large population, weak health facilities, high poverty rates, low socio-economic conditions, poor social protection systems, limited access to water and sanitation, and inadequate living space. With all of these existing socioeconomic problems, maintaining physical distance and taking other required measures posed serious concern . Every country of the South Asia could not be included in this study. On the basis of two indicators, the spread of the COVID-19 virus and the Annual Agricultural Production (2019) (WB, 2020a), three countries, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, were selected ( Figure 1 ). Larger agricultural production countries with a higher virus infestation rate are more vulnerable than others.

Therefore, the paper is organized into five sections. Section 1 deals with a brief introduction, including the objectives of the study. Materials and methods of the study are presented in the Section 2. Section 3 itemized the main body of the paper, the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural production and distribution, including the impact on the agricultural labor force and intermediary input supply, the impact on crops, livestock, fruits and vegetables, and others. The export and import restrictions and the related government measures to tackle the COVID-19 losses are also presented in Section 3. In Section 4, the summary and discussion are presented. Finally, in Section 5 of the paper, the conclusions and recommendations are stated.

Agricultural production depends on the four factors of production, including land, labor, capital and organization/enterprise. Among these factors, the study is trying to cover the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural labor forces, intermediary input supply, and export and import restrictions. Finally, the production and distribution situation were discovered, with government measures implemented to minimize the agricultural losses.

South Asian farmers are extensively dependent on rural migratory labor (Mottaleb et al., 2016) and agricultural machinery owners who are responsible for land preparation, planting, irrigation, harvesting, and postharvesting activities. Due to social distancing measures across the countries (Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan), the agricultural labor forces could not move. It had two effects: The first was that it disrupted the agricultural production system, and the second one was that it harmed vulnerable livelihoods of agricultural laborers. Nonetheless, Figure 2 shows that the vulnerability of agricultural labors' livelihood will be higher in India (43.44%) than in other countries. Furthermore, in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, the sectorial employment share for the agricultural sector employs 41.14%, 43.44%, and 42.27%, respectively. A sudden COVID-19 infestation will make it more vulnerable than other sectors of labor.

F I G U R E 1 Selection procedure of the study areas (Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan). Source: Spread of COVID-19 in South Asia, as at 14 December (WHO, 2020); Annual Agricultural Production (2019), (WB, 2020a) Different studies have also shown the vulnerability of agricultural labor due to COVID-19. According to the report, titled "COVID-19 lockdown: Impact on Agriculture and Rural Economy", the lockdown has resulted in a severe crisis of livelihood for many daily laborers and wage earners in the countryside. It also noted that the lockdown was imposed when the country was already faced with an unprecedented situation with respect to rural employment in India. According to the most recent NSSO Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) data, work participation rates among rural working-age men have decreased from 82% in 2011-2012 to 75% in 2017-2018, and work participation rates among rural workingage women have decreased from 37% in 2011-2012 to 22% in 2017-2018 (Rawal, Ankur, & Pais, 2020) .

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics authors also estimated that the most vulnerable employment sector would be the agriculture sector during different lockdown stages (selective restrictions-stage 1, partial restrictions-stage 2, and complete restrictions-stage 3). Figure 3 depicts the vulnerable agriculture employment sector, which would be highest for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province at about 94.70% (PIDE, 2020). As a result, it demonstrates how agriculture farmers will face agricultural labor shortages during the Corona lockdowns in comparison to other sectors of employment.

The International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates that, in Pakistan, 2.9 million salaried workers involved in crop sowing and harvesting are in danger due to the restricted policy of the government (FAO, 2020a).

Intermediate inputs include fertilizer, pesticides, seeds, feeds, and power supply. During the COVID-19 pandemic, farmers were confronted with problems across the country when buying fertilizers, pesticides, diesel, and other inputs for growing cereal rice. Fish farmers, hatcheries, nurseries, traders, and feed dealers (World Fish, 2020) are realizing difficulties in reaching markets to purchase inputs and sell their production amid the COVID-19.

Besides, the Kharif season is about to start. In this situation, if the supply chain of intermediary inputs like fertilizers, seeds, pesticides, and herbicides is cut off, then it would delay the production of vegetables and other crops (Technical Assistance Consultant's Report, 2020).

In Bangladesh, most of small-scale farmers harvest potatoes in March and also start planting early summer crops like maize, jute, vegetables, and pulses. But lockdown abridgment prevented farmers from buying agricultural inputs or getting their produce to the markets (FAO, 2020b). According to media report, a record amount of fertilizers was sold during the lockdown period in April for the kharif crop due to the figure of a typical rainstorm this year that would regularly build India's yield territory and compost utilization.

However, transportation offices are a significant issue of approach and relations in different parts of the nation (Agroberichten Buitenland, 2020). On the other hand, the restrictive environment of imported agricultural intermediary goods, especially High-Efficiency Irrigation Systems appliances, will likely put great stress on Pakistani farmers. Another simmering issue for farmers is their exploitation at the hands of agricultural industry importers who will mint good money in this pandemic crisis (Arab News, 2020).

Agriculture remains the most significant sector for the economy of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan with a contribution of 12.7%, 16.0%, and 22.0%, respectively, of the national GDP (WB, 2020c). The sudden infestation of COVID-19 affected agricultural production and distribution across the country. Crops, livestock, vegetables, fruits, and fish are all affected from the farm to the fork. The issue began with a nationwide lockdown. The scenario analysis for major food crops ( Figure 4 ) during a lockdown demonstrates that restricted mobility and fewer transportation systems have an impact on the harvesting of major food crops in selected countries.

• During the recent times of pandemic, crop production has distorted demand-supply dynamics in the rice market of Bangladesh which ultimately has created an artificial price hike in the end market. The farmers have to count a 10 times higher cost for labor and transport compared with the normal time and are even selling their output at cost price or less to cut their losses (Kamol, 2020) . • In India, media report shows that producers and farmers may have lost at least INR 200 billion during the lockdown period (Rawal, Kumar, & Pais, 2020 ). • A report titled "Desert Locust Situation in Pakistan" published by the FAO (FAO, 2020d) stated that Rabi crops like wheat, chickpea, and oilseeds could be severely damaged in the short run. Considering a 15% and 25% damage level for the production of wheat, gram, and potatoes, the estimated loss for the Rabi season could be PKR 205 billion and PKR 353 billion, F I G U R E 4 Impact of nationwide lockdown on harvesting of major food crops. Source: (ADB, 2020; Barkur et al., 2020; FAO, 2020c; Haque, 2020) respectively. It is also estimated that PKR 464 billion is available for Kharif crops (assuming a 25% damage level). In the concentration of accompanying impacts by COVID-19 on health, livelihoods, and food security, it is high-handed to contain and control successfully the Desert Locust infestation. Already, the efforts to spray fields and reduce the potential locust invasion have been diluted given the focus on COVID-19.

Along with the major food crops, the livestock sector was affected severely. Due to the disruption of the supply chain, demand is falling. Farmers' losses have increased due to declining demand and the nature of perishability.

• In Bangladesh, about 350,000 dairy farmers are struggling to maintain their existence. Each day, 27,000 tonnes of milk go unsold. In some areas, the price of milk has fallen to that limit. They even cannot earn enough money for buying feed and medicine for their cattle . • The dairy area demonstrated a blended picture of India. Within 7 days of the lockdown declaration, milk prices began to plummet as office flasks, cafés, and sweet shops remain closed. Some milk was utilized to skim milk powder and spread it, of which there are presently enormous volumes in stock (Agroberichten Buitenland, 2020). Over 1,000,000 small poultry ranches have closed down and a large portion of the 1,000,000 people working in the area have become jobless. This likewise influenced the feed makers identified with poultry; farmers canceled orders and some farmers even buried their chickens alive. 

Countrywide lockdown throws vegetable farmers at vulnerable situation. Fruit and vegetable farmers are especially vulnerable as these perishable items cannot be stored for a long time.

• In Bangladesh, almost 8,500 tonnes of vegetables enter Dhaka city daily, but this has dropped to 200-300 tonnes now because of the coronavirus crisis and they are sold at a quarter of their normal price. Therefore, most of them are unable to even recover their investments in this present scenario of COVID-19 (Khan et al., 2020; Wardad, 2020) . • In India, the arrival of major cereals, fruits, and vegetables on the market decreased by about 5.55%, resulting in an increase in the average retail price of food items for domestic consumers and a decrease in price realization for farmers. This might affect the planting of summer and kharif fruits and vegetables (Joshi et al., 2019) . • In the absence of labor and means of transportation, millions of Pakistani farmers are staring at another disaster, watching their produce rot in their fields. Experts believe that the phenomenon will have cascading effects on the region's food security (Horti Daily, 2020) . Farmers are concerned that if they are unable to properly pluck mangoes and the supply chain is disrupted, they will suffer significant losses (World Asia, 2020).

Association estimated about 46.9 million US dollar loss due to COVID-19 breakout in Bangladesh (World Fish Center, 2020). India's fishing sector faces losses of around 28 million euros a day, according to the Central Institute of Fisheries Technology (CIFT) report. For this lockdown, about 700,000 tonnes of fish had to be thrown away (Agroberichten Buitenland, 2020).

Agricultural production and trade are expected to be affected by many policy measures (e.g., higher controls on cargo vessels) that aim to avoid the spread of COVID-19. Producers of fish, crab, and shrimp are facing significant economic losses as result of an export ban. To meet domestic demand, several governments around the world have imposed export restrictions on food products. Russia restricts grain exports, and Vietnam and India have already stopped exporting rice (World Bank, 2020d). The discontinuation of rice grain exports from the world's biggest exporter is allowing rival countries such as Thailand to increase exports in the short term and lift global prices, which forces millions of poor consumers in Africa to pay higher prices (Maji et al., 2020) . It is predictable that we are seeing the international prices of rice and wheat rise sharply. This is a chilling reminder of the global food price crisis of 2007 -2008 (Agrilinks, 2020 . On the other hand, many perishable fruits, vegetables, fish, and dairy products are facing a price-dropping problem due to shortages of buyers. Every export industry, for example, Pakistan's fruit and vegetable association (PFVA) fears the impact of the coronavirus, which has seen Pakistan close its borders, and international airlines suspend services, could cost the industry up to US$150 million (Asia Fruit, 2020) . Approximately 70% of Bangladeshi crabs are exported to the Chinese market. Bangladesh's crab industry is suffering as a result of export bans in China and Europe (The Business Standard, 2020).

Policy responses to the pandemic play a vital role in the outcome (Laborde et al., 2021) . To address the impact of COVID-19 on the agricultural sector, the governments of South Asian countries implemented a variety of policy measures. Bangladesh has taken a new type of policy in the recent "National Agricultural Mechanization Policy-2020" in which the main vision was "Transition to efficient, profitable and commercial agriculture through agricultural mechanization and ensuring sustainable food and nutrition security" (National Agricultural Mechanization Policy, 2020). On the other side, the Indian government has kept its focus on the intersectorial linkages of the agricultural organizations, sustainability and natural resource management, greater investment priorities in rural areas, more incentives, and on risk management (Agriculture Policy: Vision 2020 . Pakistan's new agricultural policy will focus on increasing innovation and technology based agriculture, focusing agriculture subsidies to socioeconomic groups, increasing public investments on infrastructure, and ensure food accessibility to all segments of the population (Agriculture and Food Security Policy, 2020). Policy has been formulated to combat the pandemic crisis where these countries' main priority is to feed all the people. According to the measures taken by the country's government (Table 1) , studies show that Bangladesh prioritizes agricultural mechanization. India is putting more emphasis on the development of allied enterprises' infrastructure, including market structure. On the other hand, Pakistan is trying to rehabilitate the farmers through different relief and subsidy packages. 

For supporting the private investment in dairy processing, cattle feed infrastructure and value addition.

USD 533 million Promotion of herbal cultivation by creating regional market places.

USD 66.67 million The allocated fund announced for help the farmers from distress sale of perishable items by subsidizing storage and transportation costs.

USD 66.67 million Develop beekeeping infrastructure including production, collection, storage and marketing.

Pakistan USD 600 million Relief package introduced by the federal government for agriculture.

USD 223 million Total subsidy provided for fertilizers.

USD 13.88 million Subsidy on cotton seeds and pesticides.

USD 53.12 million Subsidy on agricultural loans.

USD 28.37 million Providing relief for the poultry sector.

USD 1.69 billion To procure 8.2 million tonnes of wheat during the current season.

USD 90 million For giving interest-free loans to farmers, and 1.2 million sacks of seeds for the next wheat crop.

USD 298 million Has been assigned for government-run utility stores to guarantee the constant availability of food and other necessities. 

The pandemic and its measures have created significant problems in the agricultural sector. Due to lockdown and limited access of supply chain, the agricultural labor force and intermediary input supply both affected in three countries (Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan and Pakistan. For this reason, farmers face acute labor shortages for harvesting winter crops, fruit picking, and so forth. Table 2 summarized the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural production and distribution across all countries. In crop production, Pakistan is in a more vulnerable position than others. Along with COVID-19, the locust infestation was fatal in Pakistan. Livestock, vegetables, fruits, and fishing sector are more vulnerable than crops in this pandemic. Moreover, farmers and other market participants cannot assure their supply to the final consumer. As a result, the farm price falls and the retail price rises, potentially motivating framers to place less emphasis on agriculture. A survey study in Bangladesh (Malek et al., 2021) supported the findings where authors found that during COVID-19 period, the rural economy experienced adverse impacts, with delayed harvest, difficulty in selling farm produce, input disruptions, and cost increases. Another study (Alam & Khatun, 2021 ) also stated that decrease farmers' income enhanced the likelihood of vulnerability and posed a challenge to continue their produce which is similar to the study finding. The impact of COVID-19 on the agricultural sector demonstrates that South Asia requires more mechanization, more developed storage systems for perishable goods, and proper distribution of agricultural marketing information to farmers.

The world is attempting to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on all sectors, given more priority on health, food, and agriculture. Because of disruptions in the agricultural labor movement, the global supply chain is under in threat of food insecurity, particularly in developing South Asian countries. The study mainly focuses on the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural production and distribution. Agricultural production is not only the result of one or two factors. Proper agricultural production depends on many factors, including intermediary inputs, agricultural labor force, and external and internal forces of country-to-country export and import situations. This study tries to acknowledge all these points. This study also shows how COVID-19 affects the distribution of agricultural products and the economic losses of farmers. The governments of South Asian countries have taken different measures and policies to save the agriculture sector. Moreover, to mitigate the long-term effect on the agriculture sector, the following recommendations from this study would support the government in taking necessary steps to feed the people:

• To maintain the upcoming production season, farmers' access to intermediary inputs must be more targeted. • In the case of harvesting, the government may increase farm harvester machines to mitigate labor shortages. • Livestock, vegetables, and fruits producers are more vulnerable as their products are perishable in nature. The government and private sectors must place a greater emphasize on the storage of these products, because storage management is required as demand is in decline in nature. • For proper functioning of the supply chain, the government may use their local (political and co-operative association) leaders to procure the products and send them to the proper place for selling. In this case, the government may provide logistical support to them. This type of decentralized effort can place the agricultural product in the market at least the cost of health hazards.

Government of Pakistan Ministry of National Food Security and Research

Food security in the time of COVID-19

Impact of COVID 19 on India's agrifood sector

Impact of COVID-19 on vegetable supply chain and food security: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Key indicators for monitoring food system disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Bangladesh towards effective response

Agricultural productivity growth and the role of capital in South Asia (1980-2013). Sustainability, 9

Impact of COVID-19 on agriculture and allied sectors

Food security, the farmers of Pakistan and coronavirus

Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: Adaptation options in smallholder production systems

Analysis of data from a cross-sectional survey

Sustainable family farming agriculture in South Asia through partnerships: to end hunger and poverty

Sentiment analysis of nationwide lockdown due to COVID 19 outbreak: Evidence from India

National agri food systems and COVID-19 in Pakistan effects, policy responses, and long-term implications

Covid-19: Channels of transmission to food and agriculture

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2020d)

The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health challenges in Bangladesh: A commentary

Available at

Tackling the COVID-19 pandemic: The Bangladesh perspective

Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on Indian fruits and vegetables export, postharvest management supply chain and future strategies

Coronavirus hits agriculture hard. The new age

Covid-19 series: Deep drive into the challenges across the agriculture value chains of Bangladesh

COVID-19: Its instant impacts upon the agrarian economy of Bangladesh

Impacts of COVID-19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis

Effect of novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on Indian agriculture: An overview through news reports amid nationwide lockdown, food and scientific reports

Changes in the Rural Economy in Bangladesh Under Covid-19 Lockdown Measures: Evidence From a Phone Survey of Mahbub Hossain Sample Households. Asian Development Bank Institute

Factors associated with small-scale agricultural machinery adoption in Bangladesh: Census findings

The impact of covid-19 pandemic on food security

Labour market and COVID-19: Provincial-level analysis of vulnerable employment across sectors

Twin challenges of COVID-19 pandemic and climate change for agriculture and food security in South Asia. Environmental Challenges, 2, 100027

Socio-economic implications of COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia: Emerging risks and growing challenges

COVID-19 lockdown: Impact on agriculture and rural economy. The society for social and economic research (SSER)

India's villages during the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19: Pakistan's preparations and response

Indian agriculture during and after the pandemic. Micro save consulting

Islamic Republic of Pakistan: Enhancing technology-based agriculture and marketing in rural Punjab. Asian Development Bank

Available at

Livestock sector suffers in lockdown

India's COVID-19 social assistance package and its impact on the agriculture sector

Vegetable growers in dire straits. The financial express

How will COVID-19 affect Pakistan farmers

Annual Agricultural Production for South Asian countries

World Bank (WB). (2020b). Data Bank. Employment among different sectors

Available at: https:// databank.worldbank.org/indicator/ World Bank (WB). (2020d)

Solicitation for emergency services for aquaculture actors in response to COVID-19 pandemic

Fish and aquatic food systems COVID-19 updates: Bangladesh

World Health Organization (WHO). (2020). COVID19 scenario in South Asia

Impact of COVID-19 on agricultural production and distribution in South Asia