key: cord-0694913-rl5coilj
authors: Zhang, Xiaojun; Zhong, Qixi; Zhang, Rui; Zhang, Mengchen
title: People-Centered Early Warning Systems in China: A Bibliometric Analysis of Policy Documents
date: 2020-09-22
journal: Int J Disaster Risk Reduct
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101877
sha: 69e56dc046ddfc634989ff35600bf665985c0575
doc_id: 694913
cord_uid: rl5coilj

People-Centred Early Warning Systems (PCEWSs) is thought to be low-cost but effective, however, existing studies fail to discuss the basic characteristics of PCEWSs, how a PCEWSs should be built, and the extensible applications of PCEWSs. This study aims for making a significant contribution to the literature through the analysis of the PCEWSs trajectory of and fundamental shifts in policy pertaining to PCEWSs in the disaster domain in China. By using bibliometric analysis of policy documents, this study presents a comprehensive review of China’s PCEWS policy system from 1977 to March 2020, which focuses on various types of disasters. The characteristics of policies and the contributing factors of the policy changes in each of the four phases are discussed in depth. Four main tendencies of PCEWSs are identified. This study provides a quantitative foundation for understanding the dynamic policy changes in China’s PCEWSs and certain experience includes the disaster characteristics that PCEWSs are suitable to get involved, the orientation that experience and technology should be combined and multi agent participation which calls for more emphasis may serve as a basis for exploring the potential pathways to the effective PCWSs in other countries and regions.

The costs and impacts of natural disasters on people, property, and the environment are often 27 severe when natural disasters occur on a large scale and with no warning and monitoring system in 28 place. Better Preparedness and awareness may save lives and in a very inexpensive manner [1] [2], 29 which will be strengthened by waring and monitoring mechanism. According to the United it is difficult to determine the most vulnerable groups from official forecasts. 41 So, is there any low-cost but effective EWS? Some studies have concluded that a 42 people-centered approach is the best approach for an effective early warning system [6] . UN 43 ISDR(2005) survey report also suggested that no matter the hazard it addresses, an effective EWS 44 must be people-centred [7] . PCEWSs first gained major attention after the Indian Ocean tsunami department was taken as a vertex, and the collaboration of departments that jointly issued 118 policies was taken as an edge to construct the network. Then, the cluster network was visualized 119 by NodeXL 6 . The size of each node depends on its degree centrality, and the sequence of nodes 120 was also ordered by their degree centrality. Beijing, some opinions as "strengthen trans-regional, cross-sectoral emergency coordination 143 linkage, all-weather emergency concept such as risk assessment and monitoring and early warning 144 system " got stressed so that PCEWS-related policies no longer take the form of areas or 145 departments scattered, instead, more comprehensive to be displayed in single text. So, the 146 development of China's PCEWS can be divided into four phases: 147 3.1 Phase : Early Exploration (1977-1991) 148 Only 14 policies referring to PCEWSs were issued from 1977 to 1991. Fig. 3 shows that 149

PCEWSs were applied to earthquakes (1977), endemic disease prevention (1986), mental health 150 (1987), blindness prevention (1988), domestic security (1988), and schistosomiasis prevention 151 (1991) . 152

The clustering network of policy keywords (Fig. 4) illustrates three subgroups of the main 153 disaster distribution: schistosomiasis health, domestic security, and natural disasters. The scope of 154 application of China's PCEWS practice for earthquake disasters originating in the field of natural 155 disasters has been developed to a certain extent in the field of public health and, in particular, in the 156 field of domestic security. Clearly, in this stage, PCEWSs focus on earthquake disasters, disasters, domestic security, and public health events, respectively. In the field of domestic 159 security, more than 890,000 cases were registered in 1981, of which 67,000 were major cases, 160 according to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Security (MPS). In the field of public health, 161 patriotic health campaigns against malaria and schistosomiasis are flourishing, and it is easy to see 162 that PCEWSs have become an integral part of the emergency management practices in these fields. In this phase, there are 137 policies related to PCEWSs. In this phase, PCEWSs were applied 248 for the first time to 15 disaster types or fields, showing the wide range of application (see Fig. 12 ). 249

The overall distribution of disaster types is mainly concentrated in the fields of natural disasters, 250 public health, domestic security and accident calamities. In 2015, PCEWSs were formally 251 incorporated into the integrated management of the emergency system by a document titled "The 252 letter of the general office secretariat of the State Council on printing the operation and 253 management measures of the national emergency early warning information dissemination system 254 (for trial)". As of March 13, 2020, it is observed that since the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020, 255

PCEWSs for public health events have been widely used in the field of public health governance, 256 and the number of related policies has reached 20. 257

Interestingly, in Fig. 13 , the PCEWS-related policies are highly influenced by the practice of 258 epidemic prevention and control in regard to COVID-19, and keywords related to public health 259 and epidemic prevention and control form a cluster subgroup. The significant difference from the 260 three phases above is that the border among clusters has become blurred, which means that the 261 co-occurrences of all the high-frequency keywords in this phase are high and similar. 262

Simultaneously, "technology", "monitor" and "mechanism" have become the center of the network 263 structure, which clearly indicates a development orientation of the PCEWS application mode. PCEWSs to make a difference. 306

From the perspective of the "disaster management cycle" (HYOGO framework), the role of 308

PCEWSs is more or less functional at each stage of the disaster cycle, and the time point in which 309 it is embedded has gradually moved from just the warning to the full cycle; furthermore, the 310 PCEWSs become sustainable and normal application (see Fig. 16 ). Not only is the function of 311 PCEWSs one of warning, but expansion has also been realized from early warning to regular 312 monitoring and then to prevention and governance. 313

PCEWSs were first applied in the earthquake disaster field, mainly aimed at "mitigation and 314 resilience" and "preparation and mobilization" in the beginning. Along with the deepening of 315 practice, PCEWS-related policy for public security mentioned "joint strike, renovation" for the There is also a policy that mentioned "the combination of personnel prevention and technical 353 prevention" in the field of domestic security. Since entering the third and fourth phases, the 354 disaster structure regarding the "emergency" as the center and other areas as coordination has been 355 highlighted in the PCEWS practice in China; accordingly, after the third phase, the model of 356 organizational and resource integration also changed more. Based on the policy network analysis 357 results and combined with the detailed check of typical policies, we found that the organizational 358 form of the third phase presented a focus on embedded technology, with party committee 359 leadership and multiagent coordination. As shown in Fig. 10 and Fig. 13 , although there is no 360 PCEWSs mainly include the overall emergency response to public health emergencies, with the 379 health professional departments as the core, neighborhood committees and the assistance of the 380 masses, disease and pest prevention and control work combining professional teams with mass 381 prevention and treatment, and, more than ever, epidemic prevention and control work related to 382 COVID-19, which requires scientific and accurate prevention and control methods to continue to 383 be embedded in urban and rural communities 151617 . 384

The comprehensive central departments that adapt to development from diversified disasters 386 to comprehensive disasters. Regarding the change in the disaster structure from multiple to 387 comprehensive, department support mainly presents the trend of a shift from functional 388 departments to comprehensive management departments, which means that not only specialized 389 response agencies but also more collaborative organized agencies with the coordination function PCEWS has been paid more attention to in the field of natural disasters, especially geological 462 disasters, and has been embedded into the framework of national emergency management to a 463 greater extent. At a time when economic development was priority and disaster reduction was 464 largely integrated into the overall national economic and social strategy, PCEWSS were actually 465 applied more in the field of public security or societal resilience. PCEWSs play different role in 466 the disaster management circle. 467

Second, combined the experience and technology. When we cannot apply the advancing 468 technology to EWS due to many kinds of factors, it's a good way to rely on widely people's 469 participation and their experience, even if it may be not so accurate. However, with the 470 development of economy, society science and technology, PCEWSs have gradually developed 471 from experience-to technology-oriented. Moving into the disaster and risk governance phase, 472

PCEWSs drive the responsibility of citizens in the effort to reduce risks and disaster impacts, 473 which serves a complement for technical capacity for disaster management. 474

Last but not least, multi agent participation is needed in PCEWSs. The change in the 475 application period from nonnormal to normal in the overall disaster cycle, department support 476 mainly presents a trend of expanding to multiple fields. In the late stages of policy development, 477 with several functional departments maintaining a higher degree of participation and cooperation 478 at the same time, more and more comprehensive departments are embedded through cooperation 479 with other business units (in the network structure, this is a kind of cooperation, and in the process 480 of practice, it is a kind of command) to carry out the work of PCEWSs. 481 (1977) (1978) (1979) (1980) (1981) (1982) (1983) (1984) (1985) (1986) (1987) (1988) (1989) (1990) (1991) J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Fig. 4 Co-word analysis and cluster analysis of keywords (1977) (1978) (1979) (1980) (1981) (1982) (1983) (1984) (1985) (1986) (1987) (1988) (1989) (1990) (1991) J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Co-word analysis and cluster analysis of keywords (1992) (1993) (1994) (1995) (1996) (1997) (1998) (1999) (2000) (2001) (2002) (2003) J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 

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Network of PCEWS policy-making departments

Acronym: National Earthquake Administration (It changed into CEA: China Earthquake Administration in 1998) (NEA)

Ministry of Public Health (It changed into National Health Commission in 2013) (MPH)

Network of PCEWS policy-making departments

ACWF: All-China Women's Federation, GASC: General Administration of Sport of China, CAST: China Association for Science and Technology, CCO: Centre Civilization Office, MC(Construction): Ministry of Construction (It changed into Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in

Network of PCEWS policy-making departments

People's Bank of China(PBC), Central Commission for Discipline Inspection(CCDI), Central Leading Group for Rural Work(CLGRW), Population and Family Planning Commission (It dissolved in 2013)(PFPC), Ministry of Agriculture (It changed into Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2018)(MA), Ministry of Supervision(MS), Organization Department of the Communist Party of China(ODCPC), Ministry of Land and Resources(MLR), National Bureau of Corruption Prevention (It dissolved in 2018)( NBCP), Ministry of Finance(MF), National Public Complaints and Proposals Administration(NPCPA), Ministry of Human Resources and Domestic security(MHRSS), Supreme People's Court(SPC), National Press and Publication Administration(NPPA), Central Committee of the Communist Young League(CCCYL), Ministry of Education(ME), Supreme People's Procuratorate(SPP), National Radio and Television Administration(NRTA), Comprehensive Treatment of Social Management Committee

Network of PCEWS policy-making departments

Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA), National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Central Committee of the Communist Young League (CCCYL), Ministry of Finance (MF), State Commission of Public Sectors Reform (SCPSR), General Administration of Sport of China (GASC), National Copyright Administration (NCA),State Administration for Industry and Commerce

 Fig. 16 The main disasters/areas that depend on PCEWSs in four phases of the "disaster cycle" J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f

☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f