key: cord-0692183-9qa2w8vf authors: Ali, Syeda Mahnoor; Malik, Fatima; Anjum, Muhammad Shehzaib; Siddiqui, Ghazanfar Farooq; Anwar, Muhammad Naveed; Lam, Su Shiung; Nizami, Abdul-Sattar; Khokhar, Muhammad Fahim title: Exploring the linkage between PM(2.5) levels and COVID-19 Spread and its implications for socio-economic circles date: 2020-11-06 journal: Environ Res DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110421 sha: a516e7e1648177697add6b0fd312c31b72f10a83 doc_id: 692183 cord_uid: 9qa2w8vf A pneumonia-like disease of unknown origin caused a catastrophe in Wuhan city, China. This disease spread to 215 countries affecting a wide range of people. World health organization (WHO) called it a pandemic and it was officially named as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona virus 2 (SARS CoV-2), also known as Corona virus disease (COVID-19). These pandemic compelled countries to enforce a socio-economic lockdown to prevent its widespread. This paper focuses on how the particulate matter pollution was reduced during the lockdown period (23 March to 15 April 2020) as compared to before lockdown. Both ground-based and satellite observations were used to identify the improvement in air quality of Pakistan with primary focus on four major cities of Lahore, Islamabad, Karachi and Peshawar. Both datasets have shown a substantial reduction in PM(2.5) pollution levels (ranging from 13 to 33% in case of satellite observations, while 23 to 58 % in ground-based observations) across Pakistan. Result shows a higher rate of COVID-19 spread in major cities of Pakistan in cities of Pakistan with poor air quality conditions. Yet more research is needed in order to establish linkage between COVID-19 spread and air pollution. However, it can be partially attributed to both higher rate of population density and frequent exposure of population to enhanced levels of PM(2.5) concentrations before lockdown period. During the initial days of December, 2019 many cases of pneumonia due to an unidentified cause Unhealthy" AQI (AQICN, 2020). 70 Increased air pollution consequently causes higher health effects. How adversely a pollutant can 71 affect health depends upon its morphology and residence time. PM 2.5 is very small in size and its 72 residence time is longer as compared to PM 10 , which makes it more convenient to penetrate in 73 lungs, becoming part of blood circulation and reaching to other organs and causing more 74 toxicity (Mehmood et al., 2018) . PM 2.5 can cause progressive and slow inflammation of the 75 respiratory pathways producing more mucous and less ciliary movement which results in acute 76 respiratory and viral infections in people exposed chronically to it. A recent study has found that 77 increased level of PM 2.5 also results in the transmission of influenza virus (Frontera, 2020).And The impacts of this lockdown were quite obvious as even residents could see with their naked 89 eyes the blue color of the skies (less polluted) over the major cities of Pakistan (see Fig.1 ). As 90 there was less use of transport, and closure of local businesses and factories resulted in better air 91 quality. 92 Therefore, the main objective of this article is to find out the difference in PM 2.5 concentrations 93 before and during the socio-economic lockdown in Pakistan, and to explore any relationship (if 94 exist) between the concentrations of PM 2.5 and COVID-19 outbreak implications in Pakistan. 95 Further, how lockdown has helped in improving air quality and GHG mitigation. The lockdown duration is based on the directives of government of Pakistan to impose a 119 countrywide socio-economic shutdown in order to avoid spread of COVID-19 through human-120 human correspondence. The data for PM 2.5 for above mentioned time periods was obtained from around the Indus delta with historically higher levels of AOD see significant reduction. It seems 155 that lockdown has benefitted the air quality especially, in the major cities of Pakistan (i.e. Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, and Peshawar). It can be clearly seen from statistics (percent Table 1 . The difference between the two time periods can be seen as during iii. Link of COVID-19 with Densely Populated and Polluted areas: 185 One thing common in these 4 cities is that they all are densely populated therefore they are more Partially, it could be due to in-effective lockdown, however, it can also be attributed to more 204 susceptibility of population frequently exposed to the higher PM 2.5 and other pollution levels as 205 compared to population of cleaner areas. It can be further verified from the no. of deaths and 206 percentage recovery rate in these cities as shown in table in Figure 5 . Therefore, it can be 207 speculated that improved air quality does not only help in reducing disease burden but also 208 reduce the vulnerability (both contamination and death rates) towards COVID-19 type 209 pandemics. This trend was seen all over the world as most of the countries closed incoming and outgoing 211 international flights, people were asked to stay at homes, and there was a drastic decrease in use One of the sectors that was majorly affected by this pandemic was Aviation. Aviation contributes 257 to 3-5% of global CO 2 and 1-2% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the environment. Organization (WHO) to consider the relationship between the occurrence of pandemics and animal markets. The deforestation is also another cause that increases the interaction of human to 307 wild animals that may also result in transmission of some alien virus or specie that can cause 308 such a catastrophic effect as caused by this COVID-19 pandemic and the ones before it. The pandemic has affected the ecological research and field work that has resulted in the 310 limitation of research activities causing consequences for the specie and habitat conservation. As COVID-19 is a respiratory disease and there is an established link between the spread of 366 (past) respiratory diseases in areas exposed to high air pollution levels (Frontera, 2020). it can 367 be speculated that the spread of COVID-19 in the areas where the pollutant concentrations 368 were higher than other areas caused more health impacts derived from this pandemic. This pandemic has significantly impacted the world economy and its disproportionate impacts 394 have been felt throughout the globe, with some countries being more affected than others. iii. Practical Implications of this study: 449 Challenges faced: 450 The main challenge faced in this study was the availability of data at finer spatial scales, such as 451 the city level. Due to the unavailability of data, the complete relationship between the spread of 452 COVID-19 with various environmental parameters could not be studied. The factories and industries should fix operation timings, and in particular, setting off 483 during the peak emissions hours. No further provision/banning of some polluting industries located near residential areas 485 as they produce smoke and other pollutants that can be harmful to people who are 486 suffering from any respiratory disease. Conclusions: 498 Both satellite and ground-based observations indicated that air quality, especially PM 2.5 levels 499 has been largely improved all around Pakistan. Significant improvement has been observed in 500 the measured concentration of PM 2.5 levels at Lahore (58%), Karachi (45%), Peshawar (46%) 501 and Islamabad (22%) as a result of the socio-economic lockdown imposed by the government of 502 Pakistan. These cities host the most number of COVID-19 cases which can be attributed to their 503 dense populations, however, poor recovery rate and relatively better tertiary level hospital 504 facilities as compared to the rest of Pakistan indicates that as the population is most frequently 505 exposed to very high level of PM 2.5 levels and other air pollutants (above Pak-NEQ and WHO 506 guidelines) therefore, impact of COVID19 were more severe and casualty rates were higher 507 when compared to the rest of the country. Therefore, it can be speculated that the population 508 residing in major cities (frequently exposed to a higher level of PM 2.5 levels) is more susceptible 509 than the population living in areas with less exposure to PM 2.5 levels. Therefore, limiting socio- Is Pakistan's Response to 561 SARS-CoV-2) Adequate to Prevent an Outbreak? Frontiers in Medicine Temporal assessment of NO2 564 pollution levels in urban centers of Pakistan by employing ground-based and satellite 565 observations Temporal Variability and Characterization of Aerosols 568 across the Pakistan Region during the Winter Fog Periods Investigating the nitrogen 571 dioxide concentrations in the boundary layer by using multi-axis spectroscopic measurements and 572 comparison with satellite observations Book Chapter Distribution During Winter Fog Conditions over Indo-Gangetic Plains Coronavirus disease 578 2019 (COVID-19): current status and future perspectives Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 582 forced confinement COVID-19: The first documented coronavirus 585 pandemic in history Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. 589 Science of the Total Environment The effects of regional climatic 592 condition on the spread of COVID-19 at global scale Variations 595 of PM2.5, PM10 mass concentration and health assessment in Islamabad Retrieved from COVID-19 Health Advisory Platform by Ministry of National 599 PAKISTAN HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE PLAN FOR COVID-19 PANDEMIC How to effectively mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on business deloitte/articles/COVID-19-How-to-effectively-mitigate-impacts-pandemic-on-your How the COVID-19 crisis is affecting Pakistan's economy. DW Made for 609 Cleaning 612 Air: Policy Options to Address the Cost of Outdoor Air Pollution Air: Policy Options to Address the Cost of Outdoor Air Pollution Is Pakistan prepared 616 to tackle the coronavirus epidemic? Drugs and Therapy Perspectives Spatial variance and 619 assessment of nitrogen dioxide pollution in major cities of Pakistan along N5-Highway Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on micro, small, and 622 medium-sized Enterprises operating in Pakistan Climate and Covid-19. DAWN Impact 627 of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China Live Science. Retrieved from Global carbon emissions dropped an 630 unprecedented 17% during the coronavirus lockdown -and it changes nothing: 631 Scientific American. Retrieved from Global CO 2 Emissions Saw 633 Record Drop During Pandemic Lockdown COVID-19 outbreak: current 637 scenario of Pakistan Retrieved from World Health Organization Harvard University. Retrieved from COVID-19 Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: A nationwide COVID-19 and surface water quality: Improved 645 lake water quality during the lockdown Indirect effects of 648 COVID-19 on the environment Exploring the temporal trends and 651 seasonal behaviour of tropospheric trace gases over Pakistan by exploiting satellite 652 observations The COVID-19 has caused severe health concerns and economic disruptions worldwide 2. Larger spread of COVID-19 can be associated with elevated levels of PM 2.5 3. The lockdown had a positive change in severely polluted cities of Pakistan 4. Besides improvement, it has posed sever challenges of environmental monitoring