key: cord-0303457-s9sfw6hf authors: Amiranashvili, A. G.; Khazaradze, K. R.; Japaridze, N. D. title: The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their monthly interval prediction from September 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 date: 2022-01-16 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2022.01.16.22269373 sha: d8f9e17c66a0ebe0934367521cca6c68e2f1ea79 doc_id: 303457 cord_uid: s9sfw6hf The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 contributed to positive trends in the spread of COVID-19 until February - the first half of March 2021. Then, in April-May 2021, the epidemiological situation worsened significantly, and from June to the end of December COVID - situation in Georgia was very difficult. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of monthly forecasting of the values of C, D and I. As earlier, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in investigation period (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 157 countries with population [≥] 1 million inhabitants in October 2021 Georgia was in the 4 place on new infection cases, and in September - in the 1 place on death. Georgia took the best place in terms of confirmed cases of diseases (thirteenth) in December, and in mortality (fifth) - in October. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 76.8 % (September 03, 2021), the smallest 18.7 % (November 10, 2021). As in previous work [9,10] the statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 6024 (November 3, 2021), R = 6017 (November 15, 2021), D = 86 (September 3, 2021), I = 12.04 % (November 24, 2021). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 4757 (1 Decade of November 2021), R = 4427 (3 Decade of November 2021), D = 76 (2 Decade of November 2021), I = 10.55 % (1 Decade of November 2021). It was found that as in spring and summer 2021 [9,10], from September to December 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R, D and I have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months for the indicated period of time were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +139 cases/day (1 Decade of October 2021), V(R) = +124 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(D) = +1.7 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(I) = + 0.20 %/ day (1 decades of October 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 12 and 14 days after infection (CR=0.77 and 0.78 respectively), and deaths - after 7, 9, 11, 13 and 14 days (0.70[≤]CR[≤]0.72); from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 14 days after infection (RC=0.71), and deaths - after 9 days (CR=0.43). In Georgia from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the duration of the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus on people (recovery, mortality) could be up to 28 and 35 days respectively; from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - up to 21 and 29 days respectively. Comparison of daily real and calculated monthly predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that in investigation period of time daily and mean monthly real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values. Traditionally, the comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out. Two years have passed since the outbreak of the new coronavirus in China, which was recognized on March 11, 2020 as a pandemic due to its rapid spread in the World [1] . During this period of time, despite the measures taken (including vaccination), several strains of this virus have appeared. The overall level of morbidity and mortality in many countries of the world is still quite high. Scientists and specialists of various disciplines from all over the world continue intensive research of this unprecedented phenomenon (including in Georgia [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] ), rendering their all possible assistance to epidemiologists. In particular, in our works [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] , it was noted that specialists in the field of physical and mathematical sciences make an important contribution to research on the spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19. Works on statistical analysis [2] [3] [4] [5] [12] [13] [14] [15] , forecasting [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] , forecasting systematization [33, 34] , spatial-temporary modeling of the spread of the new coronavirus [35] [36] [37] [38] etc. was actively continuing in 2021. This work is a continuation of the researches [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] . In this work results of a statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of monthly forecasting of the values of C, D and I. The information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The comparison of data about C and D in Georgia with similar data in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey and in the world is also carried out. We used standard methods of statistical analysis of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for non-random time series of observations [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [39] [40] [41] . from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021 are used. The work also used data of National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat) on the average monthly total mortality in Georgia in January-December 2015-2019 [https://www.geostat.ge/en/]. In the proposed work the analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the nonaccidental time-series of observations [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [39] [40] [41] . The following designations will be used below: The calculation of the interval prognostic values of C, D and I taking into account the periodicity in the time-series of observations was carried out using Excel 16 (the calculate methodology was description in [7] In the Table 1 [8] the scale of comparing real data with the predicted ones and assessing the stability of the time series of observations in the forecast period in relation to the pre-predicted one (period for prediction calculating) is presented. The results in the Fig. 1-24 Mean 843 284 154 197 298 73 Min 178 20 0 117 0 39 Max 1616 877 716 276 898 248 Range 1438 857 716 159 898 208 Median 806 226 137 198 296 65 St Dev 358 214 119 49 84 33 The largest variations in C values were observed in Azerbaijan (CV=77.1%), the smallest -in Russia (CV=24.8%). Significant linear correlation (rmin = ± 0. 18, α = 0.05) between these countries on C value varies from 0.23 (pairs Georgia-Azerbaijan, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Armenia-Turkey) to 0.67 (pair Georgia-Russia). Linear correlation between World and these countries is significant only for two pairs: World-Armenia (r = -0.45) and World-Russia (r = -0.27). The degree of correlation [41] is as follows: moderate correlation (0.5 ≤ R < 0.7)for pairs Georgia-Armenia, Georgia-Russia and Armenia-Russia; low correlation (0.3 ≤ R< 0.5)for pair World-Armenia; negligible correlation (0 ≤ R < 0.3)for pairs Georgia-Azerbaijan, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Armenia-Turkey and World-Russia. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint The copyright holder for this this version posted January 16, 2022. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.16.22269373 doi: medRxiv preprint positive correlation between World and these countries is significant for two pairs: World-Azerbaijan (r = 0.20) and World-Turkey (r = 0.37); negativefor pair World-Russia (r = -0.27). The degree of correlation [41] is as follows: moderate correlationonly for pair Armenia-Russia; low correlationfor pairs Georgia-Russia, Russia-Turkey and World-Turkey; negligible correlationfor pairs Azerbaijan-Turkey, World-Azerbaijan and World-Russia. It should be noted that, in general, in the studied period of time, level of correlations shown in Tables 1 and 2 are worse than in the summer of 2021 [10] . In Table 3 the statistical characteristics of mean monthly values of C and D related to Covid-19 for 157 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants from September to December 2021 (normed per 1 million population) is presented. As follows from this Table range of change of mean monthly values of C for 157 countries varied from 0 (all months) to 1748 (December). Average value of C for 157 countries varied from 113 (September) to 190 (December). Value of CV changes from 145% (September) to 187% (November). Range of change of mean monthly values of D for 157 countries varied from 0 (all months) to 21.5 (November). Average value of D for 157 countries varied from 1.6 (September and October) to 2.0 (November). Value of CV changes from 148% (September) to 198% (November). is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint The copyright holder for this this version posted January 16, 2022. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.16.22269373 doi: medRxiv preprint Between mean monthly values of Deaths and Confirmed cases related to Covid-19 for 157 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitant linear correlation and regression are observed (Fig. 3 ). As follows from Fig. 3 the highest growth rate of the monthly average values of D depending on C was observed in October, the smallest -in December (the corresponding values of the linear regression coefficients). In Table 4 data about Covid-19 mean monthly values of infection (C) and deaths (D) cases from September to December 2021 (per 1 million population) and ranking of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey by these parameters (in brackets) among 157 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitant are presented. The corresponding values of the deaths coefficient (DC) are also given here. In particular, as follows from this Table, mean monthly values of C for 5 country changes from 69.7 (Armenia, December, 66 place between 157 country) to 1130.0 (Georgia, November, 6 place between 157 country). Mean monthly values of D for 5 country changes from 1.58 (Azerbaijan, December, 39 place between 157 country) to 17.96 (Georgia, November, 2 place between 157 country). On the whole (Table 4) in October 2021 Georgia was in the 4 place on new infection cases, and in September -in the 1 place on death. Georgia took the best place in terms of confirmed cases of diseases (thirteenth) in December, and in mortality (fifth) -in October. Mean monthly values of DC for 5 country changes from 0.75% (Turkey, October) to 6.39 (Armenia, December). Note that the mean values of DC (%) from September to December 2021 are: Georgia -1.67, Armenia -3.05, Azerbaijan -1.42, Russia -3.50, Turkey -0.83, World -1.31 (according to data from Table 1 and 2). In summer 2021 the mean values of DC (%) were: Georgia -1.28, Armenia -2.08, Azerbaijan -0.80, Russia -3.36, Turkey -0.80, World -1.79 [10] . Thus, during the study period, compared to the summer 2021, the DC values in all five indicated countries increased (in Turkey, this growth is insignificant). In the World, on the contrary, the value of DC has decreased. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint The copyright holder for this this version posted January 16, 2022. The most share of mean daily mortality from Covid-19 of mean daily mortality in 2015-2019 from October 2020 to December 2021 in November was observed -49.7% (Fig. 7) . is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint The copyright holder for this this version posted January 16, 2022. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.16.22269373 doi: medRxiv preprint Results of the statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia from September 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 in Tables 5-7 and Fig. 8 -20 are presented. The mean and extreme values of the studied parameters are as follows (Table 5) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint Time changeability of the daily values of C, R, D and I are satisfactorily described by the tenth order polynomial ( Table 6 , Fig. 11-13 ). For clarity, the data in Fig. 12 are presented in relative units (%) in relation to their average values. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint Note that from Fig. 11 and 12 , as in [8] [9] [10] , clearly show the shift of the time series values of R and D in relation to C. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint The copyright holder for this this version posted January 16, 2022. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01. 16.22269373 doi: medRxiv preprint In Fig. 14-16 data about mean values of speed of change of confirmed, recovered, deaths coronavirusrelated cases and infection rate in different decades of months from September to December 2021 are presented. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint The copyright holder for this this version posted January 16, 2022. Data about mean monthly values of C, R, D, I and its speed of change in from September to December 2021 in Table 7 are presented. As follows from this Table there was an increase in average monthly values of C and I from September to November, and further decrease to December. Values of R and D decrease from September to October, increase from October to November, and further decrease to December. The values of V(C), V(R), V(D) and V(I) changes as follows: V(C)from -67 cases/day (September) to +90 cases/day (October); V(R) -from -88 cases/day (September) to +76 cases/day (October); V(D) -from -1.6 cases/day (September) to +0.7 cases/day (October) and V(I) -from -0.10 %/day (December) to +0.13 %/day (October). In Fig. 17 data about connection of 14-day moving average of deaths cases due to COVID-19 in Georgia with 14-day moving average of infection rate from December 18, 2020 until December 31, 2021 are presented. As follows from Fig. 17 , in general, with an increase of the infection rate is observed increase of deaths cases. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint R=0.58 (moderate correlation [41] ), α≈0.03 Using the data in Fig. 18 , a linear regression graph between the monthly mean values of D and I is obtained (Fig. 19 ). As follows from Fig. 19 , in general a moderate level of linear correlation between these parameters is observed. This Fig. also clearly demonstrates the anomaly high mortality from coronavirus in November 2021 with relatively low value of infection rate in comparison with December 2020, which reduces the level of correlation between D and I. As noted in [9, 10] and above ( Fig. 11 and 12) , there is some time-lag in the values of the time series R and D with respect to C. An estimate of the values of this time-lag for September-November and October-December 2021 is given below (Fig. 20) . is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint With September 1, 2021, we started monthly forecasting values of C, D and I. In Fig. 21-24 and Table 8 is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint The copyright holder for this this version posted January 16, 2022. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.16.22269373 doi: medRxiv preprint Table 9 . Change in the forecast state of C, D and I in relation to the pre-predicted one according to Table 1 scale [8] . For all forecast periods (4 monthly forecasting cases and one 16-days forecasting case), the stability of real time series of observations of these parameters (period for calculating the forecast + forecast period) remained (Table 9) . Thus, the daily monthly and mean monthly forecasted values of C, D and I quite adequately describe the temporal changes in their real values. Despite the rapid spread of the omicron COVID variant an interval forecast check of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths and infection rates in Georgia from 01.01.2022 to 16.01.2022 confirms the representativeness of the monthly forecast for the specified time period (Table 8 and 9) [https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/]. Further monitoring will determine the representativeness of this monthly forecast for the end of January 2022 in the context of the spread of mixed strains of coronavirus (Delta and Omicron) in Georgia. In the future, it is planned to continue regular similar studies for Georgia in comparison with neighboring and other countries. 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