key: cord-0279939-2xpwb73z authors: Biagini, D.; Franzini, M.; Oliveri, P.; Lomonaco, T.; Ghimenti, S.; Bonini, A.; Vivaldi, F.; Macera, L.; Balas, L.; Durand, T.; Oger, C.; Galano, J.-M.; Maggi, F.; Celi, A.; Paolicchi, A.; Di Francesco, F. title: Plasma oxylipin levels may predict Covid-19 patient outcomes. An observational and retrospective study. date: 2021-07-27 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2021.07.21.21260954 sha: 0d53bcc821e58c36c25a5cced8511905c7bc495e doc_id: 279939 cord_uid: 2xpwb73z Background The key role of inflammation in the progression of COVID-19 was evident right from the beginning of the pandemic. Consequently, many authors studied the onset and evolution of the cytokine storm. In contrast, other inflammatory mediators such as oxylipins have received almost no attention. Methods We conducted a monocentric observational and retrospective study (IMPRE-COVID-19) with patients (aged [≥] 18 years) admitted to Pisa University Hospital with COVID-19 related pneumonia. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by polymerase chain reaction in a nasopharyngeal swab, while pneumonia was demonstrated by CT scan. Oxylipin plasma levels were analysed in a convenient sample of 52 patients randomly selected from those that had a complete set of cytokine values evaluated for clinical purposes. In 12 cases, plasma samples collected on different days were available at the BMS Multispecialistic Biobank of Pisa University Hospital and were analysed to understand the evolution of the oxylipin levels during hospitalization. The two datasets that included oxylipin and cytokine values were analysed by principal component analysis (PCA), computation of Fisher s canonical variable, and a multivariate receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Findings Between March and April 2020, 52 patients were enrolled of which 28 were hospitalised in COVID-19 wards, 20 in ICUs, and 4 who were initially hospitalised in the wards and who were then transferred to the ICUs due to deteriorating health conditions. Plasma samples collected on different days were available from 7 patients in the wards, 1 from an ICU, and 4 from patients who were hospitalised in both. The mean age of participants was 61 years (SD 16), 11 were females (21%), and 41 were males (79%), without significant differences between groups in terms of age and gender. PCA of oxylipin data led to a clear differentiation of samples collected in COVID-19 wards and ICUs. This differentiation had not been obtained with cytokine data. In addition, borderline samples were from patients hospitalised in COVID-19 wards that were about to be transferred to the ICUs, thus suggesting that differentiation is not a consequence of a different treatment, but somehow related to a diverse evolution of the pathology. Computation of Fisher s canonical variable identified the original input variables that were the most effective in discriminating between the two classes. The combination of the two datasets did not improve the discrimination, thus suggesting that oxylipins are more informative than cytokines for this purpose. A multivariate class model built using the four lowest-order principal components as the input variables, and COVID-19 ward samples as the target class, produced a ROC curve with a resulting area under the curve (AUC) equal to 0{middle dot}92 - which is much higher than most AUC outcomes obtained for individual oxylipins. Interpretation After analysing the metabolic pathways of the most informative oxylipins, we speculate that more severe COVID-19 is associated with a selective deficiency of pro-resolving oxylipins leading to ineffective resolutive mechanisms of inflammation, likely worsened by endothelial damage. We believe that our oxylipin data suggest the possibility to predict the evolution of COVID-19 in individual patients at an early stage. Funding Institutional funds from the University of Pisa supported the study. The key role of inflammation in the progression of COVID-19 was evident right from the beginning of the pandemic. Consequently, many authors studied the onset and evolution of the cytokine storm. In contrast, other inflammatory mediators such as oxylipins have received almost no attention. We conducted a monocentric observational and retrospective study (IMPRE-COVID-19) with patients (aged ≥ 18 years) admitted to Pisa University Hospital with COVID-19 related pneumonia. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by polymerase chain reaction in a nasopharyngeal swab, while pneumonia was demonstrated by CT scan. Oxylipin plasma levels were analysed in a convenient sample of 52 patients randomly selected from those that had a complete set of cytokine values evaluated for clinical purposes. In 12 cases, plasma samples collected on different days were available at the BMS Multispecialistic Biobank of Pisa University Hospital and were analysed to understand the evolution of the oxylipin levels during hospitalization. The two datasets that included oxylipin and cytokine values were analysed by principal component analysis (PCA), computation of Fisher's canonical variable, and a multivariate receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Between March and April 2020, 52 patients were enrolled of which 28 were hospitalised in COVID- 19 wards, 20 in ICUs, and 4 who were initially hospitalised in the wards and who were then transferred to the ICUs due to deteriorating health conditions. Plasma samples collected on different days were available from 7 patients in the wards, 1 from an ICU, and 4 from patients who were hospitalised in both. The mean age of participants was 61 years (SD 16), 11 were females (21%), and 41 were males (79%), without significant differences between groups in terms of age and gender. This differentiation had not been obtained with cytokine data. In addition, borderline samples were from patients hospitalised in COVID- 19 wards that were about to be transferred to the ICUs, thus suggesting that differentiation is not a consequence of a different treatment, but somehow related to a diverse evolution of the pathology. Computation of Fisher's canonical variable identified the original input variables that were the most effective in discriminating between the two classes. The combination of the two datasets did not improve the discrimination, thus suggesting that oxylipins are more informative than cytokines for this purpose. A multivariate class model built using the four lowest-order principal components as the input variables, and COVID-19 ward samples as the target class, produced a ROC curve with a resulting area under the curve (AUC) equal to 0·92which is much higher than most AUC outcomes obtained for individual oxylipins. After analysing the metabolic pathways of the most informative oxylipins, we speculate that more severe COVID-19 is associated with a selective deficiency of pro-resolving oxylipins leading to ineffective resolutive mechanisms of inflammation, likely worsened by endothelial damage. We believe that our oxylipin data suggest the possibility to predict the evolution of COVID-19 in individual patients at an early stage. Institutional funds from the University of Pisa supported the study. Approximately 20 months after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the unprecedented effort of the scientific community, there are still many open questions regarding the pathophysiology of the disease, therapy, and the clinical management of patients. Around 15% of patients undergo severe COVID-19 and require hospitalization with oxygen supplementation, and 3-5% of these are admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) for ventilation support. 1 A critical care triage is required to prioritize patients for intensive care and to optimize the use of limited resources, 2 however unfortunately current physiological prediction scores are inaccurate. We speculated that markers associated with acute immune-inflammatory response and severe COVID-19 symptoms could be found among chemicals involved in the cytokine and oxylipin storm. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. We then realized that oxylipins could provide clinicians with clear indications regarding the urgency of patient transfer to ICU. The cytokine storm results in a detrimental dysregulation of T cell responses and in an uncontrolled overproduction of immune cells and cytokines, such as tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferonγ (IFN-γ), interleukins (IL-1β, IL-2, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8), and a large number of chemokines (CCL2, CCL3, CCL5, CCL9, CCL10). 3 Besides cytokines, other important inflammatory mediators, e. g. oxylipins, sustain the inflammatory response observed in severe COVID-19 cases. [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] Oxylipins are bioactive lipids generated from both ω-3 and ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) through enzymatic (e.g. prostanoids, epoxy and hydroxy fatty acids) and non-enzymatic (e.g. isoprostanoids) oxidation reactions. 9, 10 Because of their anti-inflammatory action, ω-3 PUFAs seem to limit the level and duration of the critical inflammatory phase 11 , and reduce ICU admissions of COVID-19 patients. 12 At the same time, PUFAs act as precursors for pro-inflammatory, anti-inflammatory, and specialized pro-resolving lipid mediators (SPM). 13, 14 Firstly, pro-inflammatory mediators such as prostaglandins, thromboxanes, and leukotrienes are released into the body, leading to the classic signs of inflammation. 15 The production of oxylipins then undergoes lipid mediator class switching mainly because of CYP450-derived epoxy fatty acids, thus shifting from the lipoxygenase pathway to the specialized pro-resolving mediators. 15 SPMs mostly consist of lipoxins, resolvins, maresins, and protectins, which could lower the inflammatory response and even promote its resolution 16, 17 without being immunosuppressive unlike classic anti-inflammatory drugs. 18 Consequently, a better understanding of the cytokine storm and its coupling with the oxylipin storm should provide new insights into the complex immuno-inflammatory cascade induced by SARS-CoV-2 and lead to novel strategies for managing patients. In this paper, we compare the plasma levels of 48 oxylipins and 5 cytokines in COVID-19 ward and ICU patients and we show that the oxylipin plasma levels can be used to discriminate between the two classes by multivariate analysis. Evidence before this study A key role of the cytokine storm in COVID-19 progression was suggested from many authors at an early stage of the pandemic. We hypothesized that oxylipins, another class of inflammatory mediators, could be involved. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar for articles published up to 15 July 2021, using the search items "lipid mediators in COVID-19", "cytokine storm (or oxylipin All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.21.21260954 doi: medRxiv preprint storm) in COVID-19", or "lipid mediators as predictors of COVID-19 severity". Several review articles suggested that the role of both the cytokine and oxylipin storm should be investigated in relation to COVID-19 onset and progression, but we only found three papers and one preprint concerning explorative studies of lipid mediator levels in COVID- 19 To our knowledge, this is the first study to suggest that oxylipins may be heavily involved in the inflammatory response to SARS-CoV-2 and represent possible biomarkers for differentiating COVID-19 patients based on severity. We found that ICU patients showed a lower (down to two orders of magnitude) plasma concentration of anti-inflammatory (EETs, HETEs) and pro-resolving mediators (D-resolvins, maresins, protectins), thus suggesting the importance of targeting the lipid mediator class switching for a timely picture of a patient's ability to respond to the viral attack. Moreover, the fact that four patients that had been hospitalised in medical wards and appeared as borderline subjects in the PCA plot had to be transferred to the intensive care unit within 1-4 days after sample collection, suggests that a model exploiting selected lipid mediators as biomarkers might be able to identify patients at risk of severe COVID-19 and a negative outcome. The striking difference between concentrations of several oxylipins observed in COVID-19 wards and ICU plasma samples may help to shed new light on the pathophysiological mechanism of COVID-19. We feel that these neglected chemicals deserve more attention. Our findings also suggest that new insights into the evolution of the pathology can be gained by studying the metabolic pathways that produce these inflammatory mediators and the associated biological processes. A prediction model that classifies patients based on their risk of developing severe COVID-19 and having a negative outcome would prompt clinicians to act in order to increase patients' chances of survival and optimize the use of resources. Not all the implications are clear at this stage, but they may well become apparent in the future in a wider range of viral pneumonias. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. and centrifuged at 1500 g for 10 minutes at 25°C to separate blood cells and plasma. Plasma was removed and stored in aliquots at -80°C. For the oxylipin analyses, the antioxidant All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.21.21260954 doi: medRxiv preprint butylhydroxytoluene (BHT, 15 mg/mL in methanol) was added before storage (1:100, BHT:sample) to preserve polyunsaturated fatty acids from in vitro lipid peroxidation. Before the analysis, a preliminary check identified specimens containing active SARS-CoV-2 virus, which were excluded from the quantification of the oxylipin content for safety reasons. The MS-based targeted profiling of 60 oxylipins (e. g. prostaglandins, lipoxins, protectins, resolvins, hydroxy-and epoxy-fatty acids, F2-isoprostanes, F3-isoprostanes, F2-dihomo-isoprostanes, and F4neuroprostanes) was performed using micro-extraction by packed sorbent (MEPS) liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (MEPS-LC-MS/MS) platform. 19, 20 Before MEPS extraction, plasma proteins were precipitated by the sequential addition of salts (i. e. 250 µL of CuSO4 · 5 H2O 10% w/v and 250 µL of Na2WO4 · 2 H2O 12% w/v) and acetonitrile (500 µL) to the plasma sample (500 µL). The supernatant was then diluted (1:6 v/v) with water. Compounds were quantified by calibration curves plotting the analyte to an internal standard peak area ratio versus the corresponding concentration ratio. Table S1 lists the targeted oxylipins and the main analytical parameters. Table S2 reports the oxylipin concentration levels in COVID-19 ward and ICU samples. Plasma cytokines (i. e. IL-6, IL-1β, IL-10, TNF-α, CCL2) and granulocyte-macrophage colonystimulating factor (GM-CSF) were quantified by automated ELISA assays according to the manufacturer's instructions (see supplementary information). Table S3 reports the concentration levels in COVID-19 ward and ICU samples. The two coprimary outcomes were the observation of extremely different plasma oxylipin concentration levels (up to two orders of magnitude) in samples collected from patients hospitalised in COVID-19 wards and ICUs, and that a multivariate unequal class model (UNEQ) differentiated items of the two groups with a high level of efficiency (AUC 0·92 in the test set). The secondary outcomes were the identification of the most effective oxylipins in discriminating between the two classes, and the formulation of hypotheses connecting the observations and biological processes related to the evolution of the inflammatory response to COVID-19. Datasets D1 and D2, which include the plasma levels of 48 oxylipins (Table S2) and 5 cytokines (IL-6, IL-1β, IL-10, TNF-α, and CCL2, Table S3 ), respectively, were obtained from the analyses of 70 samples collected from patients hospitalised in COVID-19 wards (patients = 32, samples = 43) and All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.21.21260954 doi: medRxiv preprint ICUs (patients = 24, samples = 27) (four patients were in both groups). Twelve out of sixty oxylipins (Table S1 ) were excluded from D1 as the concentrations were below the limit of quantification for more than 50% of samples. A decimal logarithmic transform was used to correct for asymmetry characterising all the variables. 21 Samples were randomly split into a training (n = 56) and a test set (n = 14): the former was used to build the models and the latter to independently estimate performances and consistency. Data were analysed by a multivariate exploratory method (principal component analysis, PCA). 22 Principal components (PCs) are orthogonal linear combinations of the original input variables aligned in the directions of maximum variability in the same orthogonal space. Under the hypothesis that variability entails information, PCs are ordered based on decreasing associated variance and importance, so that projection of samples onto the plane of the two lowest-order PCs enables a plot to be drawn that shows the most informative undistorted visualization of multivariate data and enabling the identification of patterns. As coordinates of samples on the PCs are called scores, this plot is called a score plot, while coefficients representing contributions of the original input variables to the PCs are called loadings. 23 In the present study, PCA was applied after column autoscalinga pre-processing transform that ensures the same importance a priori is given to all variables, irrespectively of their magnitude. 24 Fisher's canonical variable was then computed in the plane described by the two lowest-order PCs, as the direction that maximises the ratio between inter-class and intra-class variances. 25 This axis represents the most discriminant direction, and its loadings, multiplied by the loadings of the PCs considered, indicate the importance of the original input variables in the differentiation of the classes. Finally, a multivariate receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was obtained by varying the confidence level of unequal class models and computing, at each step, sensitivity and specificity. [26] [27] [28] Multivariate data processing was performed by in-house Matlab routines (The MathWorks, Inc., Natick, USA, Version 2019b). The funders of the study had no role in the study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All the authors had full access to all data and shared the final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. Between 1 March and 30 April 2020, 52 patients were admitted to Pisa University Hospital, 28 in COVID-19 wards, 20 in ICUs and 4, initially hospitalised in COVID-19 wards, who were then All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.21.21260954 doi: medRxiv preprint transferred to the ICUs due to deteriorating health conditions. The clinical characteristics, comorbidities and outcome of patients are reported in Table 1 . Baseline characteristics were generally similar between the two groups, with the exception of the Horowitz index for lung function (P/F ratio) that identified the acute hypoxemic respiratory condition of ICU patients, as well as their leucocytosis and lymphocytopenia, which were related to the higher inflammatory response and more severe viral infection. The plasma concentrations of oxylipins and cytokines are reported in Table S2 and Table S3, respectively. A separation of samples collected from COVID-19 wards (blue symbols) and ICUs (red symbols) is clearly visible in the oxylipin score plot (Figure 1a ), but which is not observed in the case of cytokines (Figure 1b) . This pattern is consistent for items of both the training set (full symbols), All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.21.21260954 doi: medRxiv preprint used to build the model and calculate PCs, and the test set (empty symbols), which were simply projected onto the PC plane 21 for validation purposes. Interestingly, many borderline samples were collected from COVID-19 ward patients who were transferred to the ICUs a few days after sample collection due to their deteriorating health conditions. Samples collected from the same patient on different days (stars) are connected by coloured arrows: shifts in the oxylipin score plot from the blue to the red zone seem to replicate the movements of patients from COVID-19 wards to the ICUs, however this is not reflected in the cytokine score plot. Unfortunately, samples collected on different days from patients moving from the ICUs to the COVID-19 wards were not available in the biobank. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. To further confirm the classification capacity of the full oxylipin set, a multivariate ROC curve was obtained by the UNEQ class-modelling strategy (Figure 3 ). The multivariate model was computed All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. Multivariate analysis of oxylipin plasma levels enabled the correct classification of COVID-19 and ICU samples, whereas separation was not achieved by processing cytokine values. The potential predictive value of this finding needs to be confirmed by prospective studies. However, the fact that many borderline samples were collected from COVID-19 ward patients that were about to be transferred to ICUs suggests that sample differences were not a trivial consequence of different treatments received from patients in different wards. In addition, the analysis of the relative contributions of individual oxylipins to the classification of the two groups fits well with our present understanding of COVID-19 and provides new insights into its pathophysiology. ICU patients showed higher levels of pro-inflammatory isoprostanoids produced from the nonenzymatic oxidation of PUFAs such as AA, DHA and EPA, and a selective deficiency of oxylipins such as prostaglandins, leukotrienes, anti-inflammatory, and pro-resolving oxylipins originating from their enzymatic conversion. Unusually, the isoprostanoid 4(R,S)-4-F4t-neuroprostane was downregulated in ICU patients. This lipid mediator prevents oxidation of the RyR ryanodine receptors, a family of Ca 2+ release channels that controls the intracellular calcium exchange and whose oxidation may cause leaks of Ca 2+ and lead to heart failure, pulmonary insufficiency and cognitive dysfunction in COVID-19. 29 Furthermore, TX-B2 was the only prostanoid with an enzymatic origin overexpressed in ICU patients, which agrees with the need for heparin therapy in these patients to prevent microcirculatory damage. Inflammation is a highly coordinated transcriptional process whose evolution towards resolution or persistence depends on a dynamic balance between pro-and anti-inflammatory mediators. In a controlled inflammatory process, immune tissue-resident cells activate processes producing chemokines and cytokines. Endothelial cells then respond thereby facilitating the recruitment of All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.21.21260954 doi: medRxiv preprint neutrophils (first) and monocytes (at a later stage), which differentiate into pro-inflammatory M1 macrophages ( Figure 4 ). 30 Pro-inflammatory cytokines activate the phospholipase A2 enzymes, which cause the release from membranes of AA, which is then converted into prostanoids or leukotrienes by cell-specific enzymatic activities. This phase is characterized by a prevalence of COX-2, both in neutrophils and M1-macrophages, and 5-LOX activity, above all in neutrophils. COX-2 and 5-LOX are responsible for the production of prostaglandins (PGD2 and PGE2) and leukotrienes (LTs), respectively. 31 The switch of lipid mediators from prostanoids to lipoxins and SPMs (resolvins, protectins, maresins) is critical for inflammation resolution. 32 In fact, PGE2 facilitates the transformation of proinflammatory M1 into anti-inflammatory M2-macrophages characterized by the up-regulation of the 15-LOX enzyme, which is primarily involved in the synthesis of SPMs. 33 PGE2 also helps to switch the pro-inflammatory (e.g. TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6) into the anti-inflammatory interleukins All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.21.21260954 doi: medRxiv preprint synthetized by M2-macrophages (e.g. IL-10). 34 The intermediate products of 5-LOX and 15-LOX activities (5-HPTEs and 5-HETE; 15-HPTE and 15-HETE) are also precursors for the biosynthesis of lipoxins LXA4 and LXB4, which are important agonists of the resolution of inflammation since they inhibit neutrophil recruitment, stimulate vasodilation, and promote efferocytosis. 34 Together with prostanoids, neutrophils play a key role in the modulation of the macrophage function through the release of apoptotic bodies and microvesicles. In fact, the phagocytosis of the microvescicles by M1 macrophages is essential to trigger their functional reprogramming into M2macrophages ( Figure 4 ). 35 For these reasons, we speculate that the oxylipin pattern observed in ICU patients affected by severe COVID-19 mirrors an impaired inflammation response which is part of a prolonged and unsolvable pro-inflammatory status characterized by a relative lack of oxylipins produced from the enzymatic processing of PUFAs. The impaired production of anti-inflammatory and pro-resolving oxylipins is not a consequence of the reduced availability of PUFA precursors, which appear unchanged or even increased in ICU patients. The presence of soluble isoprostanoids in both classes of patients confirms that the availability of membrane PUFAs is not a limitation for their enzymatic processing. 36 Much remains to be understood regarding the pathogenetic mechanism of COVID-19, however defective innate and specific immune responses are likely to be critical features. 37 Schulte-Schrepping et al. 38 showed an increase in dysfunctional neutrophils and monocytes in severe COVID-19 patients that seems to be in agreement with our findings. A massive endothelial dysfunction resulting from the cytokine storm and the infiltration of SARS-CoV-2 is a further characteristic of severe COVID-19 that determines the loss of vessel barrier, the promotion of leukocyte infiltration, and the activation of platelet aggregation and coagulation. 37, 39 Interestingly, in ICU patients we found higher levels of TX-B2, the biological inactive catabolite of TX-A2 (a potent activator of platelet aggregation and thus of coagulation). This is in line with the diffused microthrombosis observed in COVID-19, 37, 40 and with the lower levels of EETs, which are mainly produced by endothelial epoxygenase and are important mediators of all pro-resolving mechanisms, 41 including the lipid mediator class switching. 42, 43 In conclusion, this study suggests that the more severe disease in ICU patients is accompanied by an inefficient enzymatic synthesis of the anti-inflammatory oxylipins resulting in an ineffective resolution mechanism of inflammation, likely worsened by endothelial damage. This hypothesis, once supported by prospective studies, might provide a basis for the identification of early biomarkers All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 27, 2021. The authors declare no competing interests. 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