key: cord-0075042-4d02p7qp
authors: Bielig, Andreas
title: The Propensity to Patent Digital Technology: Mirroring Digitalization Processes in Germany with Intellectual Property in a European Perspective
date: 2022-02-24
journal: J Knowl Econ
DOI: 10.1007/s13132-022-00986-z
sha: c73f16c5409e9bef44df1cf1c130f1ab7ef4f75b
doc_id: 75042
cord_uid: 4d02p7qp

Digitalization processes are main drivers of innovation activities, so promoting digital technology is priority of economic and industrial policy. Examining digital technology patent surge, the article analyzes German innovation positions in digital technology filings at European Patent Office in 2010–2019. Germany belongs to largest originations with computer technology as major field. Compared with USA and China, it finds in second innovation league and loses ground. Chinese strengths derive from specialization advantages in digital technologies. However, analysis of entire digital technology filings at EPO reveals no evidence for innovation advantages of increased specializations in European perspective.

Since many decades, the use of digital technology increasingly forms individual patterns and economic action in our societies (Schallmo & Williams, 2018) . In a general perspective, digital technologies can be defined as electronic tools, automatic systems, technological devices, or resources based on computational hardware, software, and network solutions for generating, processing, or storing of information by using bits as smallest information units in a binary system of zero and one (Johnson, 2021; Gabler Wirtschaftslexikon, 2022) . Digitalization processes trigger radical changes in growing numbers of markets, industrial sectors, national economies, and international exchange (World Economic Forum, 2018, pp. 6-8) . They restructure production, organization, and innovation processes of enterprises but reshape also cooperation and competition relations on markets (Lobo & White, 2017; Pershina et al., 2019; Verstegen et al., 2019; Cirillo et al., 2020; Balsmeier & Woerter, 2019 , Eiteneyer et al., 2019 Nambisan et al., 2019; Domini et al., 2020; Scott et al., 2017) . Digital technologies often function as enablers by lowering barriers for market entry. With the emergence of digital newcomers, traditional incumbents are challenged in new technology areas with a reset of the competition field (Brunswicker & Schecter, 2019; Forman & Zeebroeck, 2019; Helfat & Raubitschek, 2018; Beltagui et al., 2020; Teece, 2018; Kim et al., 2017) . Hence, promotion of digitalization by economic policy becomes popular in industrialized economies. This reflects the public discourse by keywords ranging between resplendent buzzwords and ambitious political programs, like for Germany Industry 4.0 (Acatech, 2013, pp. 18-26) , Digital Economy (European Commission, 2020, pp. 3f), or Digital Transformation (Bundesregierung, 2020, pp. 8 f) . Until recent years, Germany lagged behind the digital transformation forefront, sticking to its core competences in manufacturing and ignoring future economic potential of digital technologies (The Economist, 2015 , OECD, 2018 , Bitkom, 2020 . To evaluate the current economic progress of German digital transformation, a comparative empirical analysis at international competition level is required. To address major German achievements in the European Common Market, the analysis focus is on European perspective. This contribution tries an answer on three research questions: (1) Which development digital technology filings experienced in 2010-2019 in a European perspective? (2) Which competitive position has Germany in digital technologies and what are observable major trends? (3) Are there empirical signs for specialization advantages in European patenting of digital technologies? As data basis, I use patent applications for digital technologies filed at the European Patent Office (EPO) as an indicator of digital advancement of filing institutions. For international comparisons of German digital technology competencies, also the German Patent and Trademark Office (DPMA) (DPMA, 2021) or, for major foreign markets, the US (USPTO) (USPTO, 2020) and the Japan Patent Office (JPO) (JPO, 2021) as well as the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA) (CNIPA, 2021) provide filing data at national level. The European analysis focus is based on two major aspects: first, the considerable importance of the Common Market for German applicants and, second, the empirical evidence for home biases of domestic patenting entities (Bacchiocchi & Montobbio, 2010; Criscuolo, 2006) . Hence, patent analysis at European level provides valuable insights into technological advancement of the German economy in digital technologies and ensures a suitable framework for measuring the economy's position in the international competition at an important supranational market. Today, dominant shares of digital technologies and product elements are protected by intellectual property rights, especially by patents. Patent protection is often, beside other competition options, like time lead, non-disclosure, or strategic bundling with complementary assets, regarded as suitable instrument to appropriate revenues of new innovative solutions, but also used for strategic patenting, resulting, e.g., in patent fencing or patent thickets (Cohen et al., 2000; Frietsch et al., 2010; Weber et al., 2007) . However, digital product and technology protection by patents is rarely analyzed with focus on macroeconomic empirical development. Chabchoub and Niosi (2005) analyze propensities to patent computer software at micro level for US and Canadian firms, Olsson and McQueen (2000) for European small-and medium-sized enterprises SME. Current macro analysis is provided by World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) IP reports or digital sector analyses published by OECD or WIPO (WIPO, 2019a; WIPO, 2019b; Zehtabchi, 2019; Hoeren et al., 2015; Baruffaldi et al., 2020) . In some analyses, role of patents in fostering innovations in information and communication technologies is regarded as problematic. Current growth developments can be challenged by negative competition and innovation effects of strategic patenting in complex technology environments and lower patent quality caused by the surge of software patents (Comino et al., 2018, pp. 406f) . Empirical analyses indicate an intensive use of formal protection instruments for appropriation purposes by large enterprises in digital technology, like patents, trademarks, and copyrights, whereas small businesses prefer informal instruments to protect digital assets, like lead-time advantage or rapid innovation cycles (Miric et al., 2019) . However, the worldwide surge of digital technology patenting indicates increasing firm interests in protection of intangible dig tech assets for business (WIPO, 2019a) . Also, European largest patent applications origination, Germany, strengthens efforts to participate in and secure potentials of future innovation and growth (EPO, 2020a) . However, no empirical evidence is found for the German international innovation position in digital patents. The article aims to close this gap partially with respect to an empirical analysis on European level, focusing German international position in digital technology development and progress made during last years. Furthermore, the contribution compares German-originated patent filings of enterprises, institutions, or private persons with internationally leading economies and indicates patent specialization patterns on digital technologies. Finally, it examines whether national specializations improve the competitive position in digitalization technologies.

A comprehensive dataset is used for analysis, covering entire direct applications for European patents filed at the EPO including international (PCT) applications entering the European phase in the reporting period from 2010 to 2019 (EPO, 2020b). Data categorization follows WIPO IPC technology concordance IPC8 (WIPO, 2009; WIPO, 2019c; Schmoch, 2008) . IPC8 does not provide a sole field of digital technologies. Hence, for measurement of Germany's international position in digital technologies, I focus on patent applications in the following fields: (1) digital communication (H04L), (2) computer technology as the largest application field (G06# not G06Q, G11C, G10L), with electrical digital processing (C06F) as core area, including specific digital applications like 3D printing or others, and (3) IT methods for management (G06Q). Following Schmoch (2008, p. 8) , these fields cover applications for digital technology at the EPO according above definition with minor exceptions; e.g., micro-structural technology (B81) belongs due to its small quantitative relevance to semiconductors. The dataset provides filing data for 46 largest origination economies and for remaining originations at aggregated level. The reader is organized as follows: First, overall EPO digital technology patent applications in 2010-2019 are analyzed, followed second by German filings. Third, German patent position is analyzed in the European perspective. Here, descriptive statistical analysis methods are applied. Fourth, impacts of national specializations on digital technologies on patent outcomes are analyzed by testing a positive impact hypothesis of digital specializations on patent activities at EPO for filings of entire economies between 2010 and 2019. For this purpose, I analyze with simple OLS regression the relationship between patent specialization and patent applications of all digital technology fields. It aims to examine the hypothesis (H) that increasing specialization in a technology field of digital technology influences patent activity in this field positively (see Eq. (1)). For patent outcome estimation, a dependent variable transformation with natural logarithm ln is applied.

with t = 1, 2 … 4, j = 1, 2 … 10, l = 1, 2 … 47 H: An increasing specialization PS in a technology field t of digital technology influences patent activity PA in this field in period j for economies l positively.

H 0 : The tested zero hypothesis (H 0 ) assumes that increasing specialization in a digital technology field does not influence field's patent activity in the analyzed period for analyzed economies positively.

H 1 : The alternative hypothesis (H 1 ) assumes that increasing specializations in a digital technology field influences field's patent activity in the analyzed period for analyzed economies positively.

Patent specialization PS of an economy l in a technology field t in year j is according to Eq. (2) defined as share of patent applications in t on aggregated national applications filed in all technology fields k:

For analysis, I focus constellations of at least one digital technology patent, so data are corrected for zero count entries. The OLS regression for hypothesis verification with applications from origination economies l in period j = 1…10 is outlined in Eq. (3). Function (4) estimates impacts of digital technology specialization in t on patent activities of filing economies. Finally, with Eqs. (5), (6), (7), and (8), influences of observed specialization intensities on patent activities are analyzed for each technology field (DT-digital technology, DC-digital communication, CT-computer technology, and ITM-IT methods for management).

OLS model:

At the end, I summarize results and close with final assessments of German digitalization position.

For about one decade, a drastic patent growth of digital technology is observed, raising application numbers worldwide at large international patent offices in the USA, Japan, China, and the European Union to new levels (WIPO, 2019a). The surge in patenting was preceded by digital technologies publications expansion, accelerating in early 1990s, e.g., for artificial intelligence (AI) (WIPO, 2019b, pp. 38-55) . A crucial factor for intensifications of digital technology patenting is the advent of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) that challenged traditional business models and required "new" appropriation instruments of economic actors (EPO, 2017) . Between 2010 and 2019, European Patent applications for digital technologies at the EPO increased steadily from 18,349 by 60.9% to 29,528 submissions, with a maximum growth of 13.8% in 2019 (see Fig. 1 ) (own calculations on basis of EPO, 2020b). The only small reduction of applications by − 2.8% was recorded in 2011. In average, digital technology filings increased in the analyzed period by 5.5% p. a. The expansion was accompanied by a gain of digital technologies in overall patenting. Shares of digital technologies on entire EPO applications increased from 12.2% in 2010 to substantial 16.4% in 2019. Digital technology weight on patent submissions enlarged steadily, with exception of 2018, an indicator of growing importance, with largest expansion by 9.3% in 2019.

In especially large origination economies fostered the surge of digital technology patents at EPO in the last decade as Table 1 indicates (own calculations on basis of EPO, 2020b). US and Chinese applicants dominated in 2019 EPO's digital patent applications, covering 55.9% of top 10 economy submissions. US-originated applications were responsible for major share of 36.2% filed by top 10 countries. Chinese applicants, as second largest origination who started catching up about 10 years before, followed with increasing shares. With large lag to leading economies followed Japan, R. Korea, Germany, Sweden, and France, which revealed above 1,000 patent counts for digital technology each in 2019. At top 10 economies, low end ranged UK (1,113% distance to top), Netherlands (1,342%), and Finland (1,869%) with huge distance to the leading USA. Also in the fifth rank, Germany still recorded 350.8% to top distance in digital technology patenting in 2019.

Picture changes completely if an economy size control in patenting is applied. Here, national weights of digital technologies on EPO patents are considered, measured by digital technology shares at aggregated national applications, as shown in Fig. 1 at right scale. China revealed with 42.8% EPO's largest digital patent

proportion with huge lead (see Table 1 ) (own calculations and elaborations on basis of EPO, 2020b). The leading US economy, with respect to application counts, Source: own calculaƟons and elaboraƟon on basis of EPO (2020b). (Shehadi, 2020) . Favorable locational conditions of the Irish financial service center, connecting fintech and digital innovation, encouraged also many fintech enterprises, like TrueLayer, Coinbase, Stripe, Remitly, Square, Paysafe, or Payoneer, who made Ireland their "place of choice" in the European Union for business activities in Europe (Duncan, 2021) . Also, UK's decision for BREXIT in 2016 altered the European digital tech landscape in the long run, favoring tech hubs with stable regulatory framework and innovation-friendly digital ecosystems (DuChene, 2019). Shares of digital technology at national patent outcomes can be interpreted not only as indicators of competitiveness in technology fields but also as signs for national technology specialization intensities. According to this, increasing digital technology shares of EPO filings reflect an increased specialization on digital technologies in patent filings since 2010 (see Fig. 1 ). But they indicate also in commercial perspective intensified efforts in business purpose applications of digital technology patents, e.g., in technology protection, bargaining, or venture capital financing. Furthermore, increasing national digital shares show domestic specialization pattern in digital technology. Chinese emergence in digital patenting outranged the competition field. However, also Sweden and, with lag, Finland, Estonia, R. Korea, and Chinese Taipei revealed signs for intensive industrial specializations in digital technology in 2019. In contrast, for Germany, no sign for digital specialization is visible.

If digital technology patent filings of German-originated applicants at EPO in 2010-2019 are analyzed, we can derive differentiated insights (see Fig. 2 

The picture varies if the German position in European digital patents at EPO with respect to top 5 economies is considered (USA, China, Japan, Korea, and Germany, see Table 1 ). Despite potential home biases in digital technology patents, the US economy leads the competition with huge lead, filing between 2010 and 2019 a dominant share of applications (see Fig. 3 With these improvements, they still not coped up with next largest Japanese competitor but reduced dig tech specialization gaps. In sum, results show considerable Chinese catching up in digital technology patent counts to leading US but also stable national specialization patterns in the top group with leading Chinese origination. In contrast, German applicants increased patent filings at low pace, hence, losing past positions in international competition. An in-depth analysis of German applications shows the following results for fields of digital communication, computer technology, and IT methods for management at EPO.

In 2019, Germany ranked in digital communication technology patenting (IPC H04L) (WIPO, 2022) in 6th place; hence, I analyze patent activities in comparison with top 5 group (China, USA, Sweden, Japan, and Korea). Until 2018, the USA dominated next ranked originations clearly (see Fig. 4 

At first glance, in computer technology (IPC G06# not G06Q, G11C, G10L) (WIPO, 2022), the German innovation position is better than in digital communication. In application numbers, Germany faces close competition with Japan with a difference in filings of 33 patents in 2019 only. But the long-term German benchmark represents US filings in IT methods. A distance of 308.2% in 2019 underlines outstanding US positions in this field. However, US innovation success is not based on IT methods for management specializations. In 2010, the USA revealed an IT method share of 1.7% and expanded it only marginally to 2.2% until 2019. One supporting factor of US dominance is the innovation restraint of other originations in this field. Shares ranged from 0.9% in Germany and China to 1.3% in Japan in 2019 that indicated sluggish innovation activities. However, all top 5 economies showed signs for minor increases of specializations. Largest improvements recorded Japan from 0.3 to 1.3%; next smaller shares revealed Korea with increases from 0.8 to 1.2%, Germany from 0.4 to 0.9%, and China from 0.5 to 0.9%. Despite overall increasing shares, however, most economies departed from their peaks, e.g., Korea from 2.0% in 2013, USA from 2.4%, and China from 1.4% in 2016; hence, there is no clear specialization intensification trend. In sum, IT methods for management patents are dominated by the USA in filing numbers and China in growth dynamics. Small-growing German patent filings were outpaced by Japanese larger dynamics. 

At first glance, if above analysis results are considered, specializations dependencies of national successes in digital innovations could be assumed. Specializations are measured by technology field's patent shares on aggregated national patents. Synoptic results for Germany in 2019 are shown in Table 2 (own calculations and elaborations on basis of EPO, 2020b). From domestic perspective, larger specializations in specific technology fields are (qua definition) accompanied by larger patent activities with national patent outcomes given. But do intensifications of specializations also beyond national levels support international success in digital innovation? Do larger digitalization specializations cause better international positions? In economic literature, several hypothesis support is found, arguing with positive specialization effects on general innovation activity (Ascania et al., 2020; Audretsch et al., 2011; Balland & Boschma, 2019; Bierwald, 2014; Foray et al., 2018; Radosevic et al., 2017) . To analyze this hypothesis empirically for EPO patents, the above-described dataset of 46 largest originations of filings in 2010-2019 is used, including a residual category for remaining filings, so entire originations amount to 47. Descriptive statistic results for the area of digital technologies (DT) with its field digital communication (DC), computer technologies CT, and IT methods for management ITM are shown in Table 3 .

Empirical analysis results of estimations according the above-defined OLS model for each technology field are outlined in Table 4 (own calculations and elaborations on basis of EPO, 2020b). In the aggregated category of digital technology (see column (1) DT), the estimation of Eq. (5) reveals a positive medium influence of increased patent specializations on patent applications at a 99% level of significance, measured by the standardized regression coefficient beta of 0.381. However, estimation's robustness is with a determination coefficient R 2 of only 0.145 small. Only 14.5% of patent application variance is explained by the regressor. We also find large residual standard deviations s of 2.03693. Hence, with 61.2% of dependent variable's mean value, the unexplained residual share is large and predictive estimation quality is restricted. The F-value is with 175.895 sufficiently large and highly significant (p-value of 0.000). However, Durbin-Watson value d is with 0.283 below lower critical value of positive autocorrelation test that indicates positive autocorrelation of Table 4 . Here contribute patent specializations with a standardized regression coefficient beta of 0.517 also with medium positive influences to patent applications but with a higher impact than found for digital technologies. The coefficient has a robust 99% level of significance but estimation's statistical quality is with a determination coefficient R 2 of 0.267 only low. 

According to quantitative analysis results, no evidence for a statistically valid relation between specialization intensities and patent applications development of economies at the EPO in 2010-2019 is found for digital technology and its subcategories 0 500 Teece, 2018 and Nelson, 2018) . Further consideration of these factors is a shortcoming of the applied analysis. This contribution tried to answer the question if specializations in digital technology support innovation positions of economies at international level. The analysis results show no empirical evidence for this hypothesis. Specializations in digital technologies did not significantly contribute to improvements of international innovation positions in this field, measured by European patent filings in the analyzed period. Figure 7 illustrates the lacking significance of specialization intensities for EPO patent applications in digital technologies (own calculations and elaborations on basis of EPO, 2020b). For independent (specialization intensity) and dependent variables (patent filings), no sign for close relation is visible, hence, an indicator that the empirical influence hypothesis of specialization intensities on patent applications can not be confirmed by empirical tests of above model.

Digitalization processes are information economies' main drivers of innovation activities. Worldwide, instruments for digital technology development and utilization to foster innovation processes are applied by economic policy (Hanna, 2020) . Increasing economic impacts of digitalization are reflected by the surge of digital technology patents. This paper analyzes German digitalization positions for patent filings at the European Patent Office between 2010 and 2019. The German economy belongs to the largest patent originations in digital communication, computer technology, and IT methods for management and revealed increasing filing outcomes. Most patents contained computer technology, followed by digital communication and IT methods for management. Furthermore, increasing digital technology importance for Germany signalizes specialization intensifications of all fields. However, Germany plays in international comparison only in the second innovation league, whereas USA and China dominate the innovation field. Increases of German digital technology filings and specializations are too small to compete with leading economies in future. German filings lag far behind USA and Chinese and Europe's largest economy reveals smallest specialization intensities out of five largest dig tech patent originations that restrict future innovation potentials. Best German results achieved filings in minor IT methods for management field, however, loosed ground against Japanese competitors. Patenting of German digital technologies reached in European perspective solid positions but innovation activities are not competitive with respect to international forefronts of technology development driven by USA and China. Emergence of China's digital technology success finds its explanation in early specializations indicated by large shares of dig tech at aggregated patents outcomes. Focusing digital patents for innovation, China applied at large scale an economic rationale of specializations also suggested by innovation economics. However, empirical analysis results of European patent applications for digital technologies in 2010-2019 show no significant relationship between patent specializations and patent filings. With the applied estimation model, no empirical evidence is found for positive specialization effects on European patent applications. Do digital technology specializations not matter? Are policy recommendations for digital technologies specializations obsolete due to lacking empirical evidence? At national level, like for China, increased digital technology specializations foster innovation and filing activities. For international competition, in line with innovation economics findings (Weresa, 2014) , additional factors are regarded as joint innovation drivers, e.g., industrial structure, human capital, research and development efforts, and other innovation capacity factors. Moreover, beyond narrow technology focused Industry 4.0 concept, innovation economics literature hints on increasing importance of innovation framework deriving from knowledge society and public sphere (Quadruple Helix) and natural environments and ecosystems (Quintuple Helix) (Carayannis & Campbell, 2021) . Future research about joint factor impacts on digital technology patenting may reveal additional valuable insights. A second analysis shortcoming derives from European patent focus. Patent patterns at EPO level may diverge from filings at global national patent destinations, namely USPTO (U.S.), JPO (Japan), CNIPA (China), and with respect to Germany DPMA, or from international WIPO PCT-filings, due to home biases of applicants or European market specifics, like consumer preferences, product, and services requirements, income distributions, public regulations, or general patent policy. Third, global pandemic situation of SARS-CoV-2 virus since 2020 may foster digital technologies development, leading to structural changes in innovation patterns not covered by analysis. Digitalization processes are mirrored by expanding European patent applications for digital technologies as analysis results show. Dig tech filing activities reflect German strengths and weaknesses in specific technological fields thereby revealing valuable insights into developments of digital innovation.

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