key: cord-0065269-16tptd0k authors: Kampker, Achim; Offermanns, Christian; Heimes, Heiner; Bi, Patrick title: Meta-analysis on the Market Development of Electrified Vehicles date: 2021-07-01 journal: ATZ Worldw DOI: 10.1007/s38311-021-0685-7 sha: 2a7d86550b841350f32f84a7e083e9a3d7746a95 doc_id: 65269 cord_uid: 16tptd0k nan g The electrified powertrain system plays a fundamental role in achieving the CO 2 targets. While global new pas senger car registrations declined for the second year in a row in 2019 [1] , the number of new registrations of elec trified vehicles (xEVs) is still growing. In the European region alone, growth of 45 % was observed compared to the previous year [1] . Even during the Coronavirus pandemic, xEV sales con tinued to grow in 2020 [2] . The crucial question is how the market will develop in the future. Based on studies of annual new regis trations of various types of powertrains, a forecast can be derived as well as the resulting effects on the supplier indus try. These results are elementary for the future strategic product and produc tion design of all companies involved in the value chain, and they give a unique opportunity to address this growing market. A metaanalysis was carried out as the basis for forecasting the development of the automotive market up to 2030. For this purpose, three scenarios for the development of electric mobility were formed: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic. Over 700 individual fore casts from more than 80 studies were considered. The powertrains are divided in ascending degrees of electrification into Internal Combustion Enginepow ered Vehicles (ICEVs), full or mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs/MHEVs), Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles without and with range extenders (PHEVs/REEVs), Batteryelectric Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs). Light duty vehicles which include passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are considered in this study. In addition, both a global and continental (Europe, USA and China) view of the most important markets is taken. Based on the metaanalysis, an exam ination of the implications for the sup plier industry is conducted. Assuming a theoretical continuation of the trend of weak market development between 2010 and 2019, a market share of 93.2 % for ICEVs can be predicted in 2030. How ever, due to the global promotion of elec tric mobility, a strong market growth of xEVs in the coming years [3] is more likely. The results of the metaanalysis underline this trend and show a signifi cantly faster increase in xEVs over the next ten years. Accordingly, 54.3 % of all vehicles will already be electrified globally in 2030 instead of 6.8 % if the trend continues, FIGURE 1. HEVs/MHEVs will account for the largest share of xEVs, followed by BEVs and PHEVs/REEVs. The latter two powertrains show stronger growth from 2025 onwards so that a larger share of BEV can be assumed if growth contin ues beyond 2030. HEVs/MHEVs serve as a transitional solution between ICEVs and BEVs. In addition to political regulations, the main reasons for the increasing growth of electrified vehicles are decreasing Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) as well as higher energy densities of batteries, which enable a higher range [4] . For OEMs however, the trend of electric mobility also poses some challenges. Two examples are the increased invest ments due to the introduction of new electrified models and the reduced employee requirement of about 30 % compared to conventional vehicles [5] . By using hybrid vehicles, a more system atic and slower transition of technologies and the associated knowhow within the automotive companies is possible. A similar development can be observed in Europe. The total share of all xEV will even be slightly higher in 2030 at 59.5 %, FIGURE 2. The strong devel opment of electrified powertrains in Europe is favored in particular by strict CO 2 regulations. A limit of 95 g CO 2 /km per fleet applies. In comparison, the values in Japan (105 g CO 2 /km), China (117 g CO 2 /km) and the USA (121 g CO 2 / km) are higher [6] . In addition to EU regulations, there are individual coun tries that are planning an absolute ban on the sale of ICEVs to further promote electric mobility. Norway is considered a pioneer of electric mobility in Europe and is planning a sales ban from 2025, Ireland, the Netherlands and Slovenia from 2030, and France and the UK from 2040 [7] . Based on the studies, ICEVs will continue to dominate the US automo tive market in 2030 with a share of 56.4 %, FIGURE 3. The weaker develop ment of electrified vehicles can be explained by the long distances between cities, the preference for larger vehicles (especially SUVs) and the low fuel prices [8] . China is considered a global pioneer of electric mobility. This is also reflected in the forecast for 2030 with a total share of xEVs in new registrations of 60 %, FIGURE 4. In contrast to the other regions considered, BEVs are the lead ing alternative to ICEVs in 2030. In China, the greater development of elec trified vehicles is favored by lower electricity costs and, at the same time, higher fuel prices, so that the TCO of xEVs is lower compared to that of ICEVs Overall, the metaanalysis shows a strong increase in demand for electrified vehicles in all regions. This also results in higher demand for the necessary com ponents such as battery cells and electric motors. In all three scenarios, global demand for battery cell capacity grows by about ten times between 2020 and 2030. This increase can be justified not only by the strong rise in demand for electrified vehicles, but also by the average increase in battery capacity per BEV. In 2030, 87 % of the total capacity demand is attributable to BEVs. For the supply of battery cells, the pro duction plans of more than 100 differ ent uppliers and OEMs with 170 dif ferent production sites -118 of which are located in China -up to 2030 were examined. Europe's share of global pro duction is currently still very low and leads to underproduction, but the con struction of numerous production sites is planned for the coming years. How ever, it has been shown that the con struction of a plant can be delayed or even fail [12] . Since such potential announcements on future plants can burst, for example due to unresolved financing issues, this creates uncertainty about the development of the supply. Assuming that the number of vehicles produced in Europe has been 8.3 % higher on average than the number of new vehicles registered over the last ten years and that this trend con tinues, this results in a slightly increased demand for battery cell capac ity. When comparing this demand in the optimistic scenario and the supply of firmly planned plants in Europe, it is expected that demand can be met from 2025, FIGURE 5. According to the fore cast, however, underproduction may occur again from 2027. FIGURE 5 also shows the development of supply if both the firmly planned and the potentially announced plants can be realized. In this case, an oversupply of about 175 GWh can arise in 2030, which can be used to equip an additional 3.5 million BEVs with an average battery size of 50 kWh. With high demand and low supply, it can be very advantageous for OEMs to invest in their own production. On the one hand, this would reduce their dependence on cell manufacturers and strengthen their knowhow in one of the key components. On the other hand, it would generate high investment costs. Tesla, for example, has decided to estab lish its own battery cell production in Grünheide near Berlin (Germany) [13] . Since the construction and commission ing of such a battery production facil ity takes a certain amount of time, it is already imperative to address this issue today. A competitive market is emerging for battery cell manufacturers, particularly due to the predicted oversupply in the ATZ worldwide 07-08|2021 second half of this decade, which may make the expansion of already estab lished battery cell manufacturers more likely than the entry of new market play ers. The rising global demand for battery cells also has an impact on material requirements. Here, the active material in the cathode plays the most important role. The chemical composition of the cathode is subject to many changes due to new technologies. Today, NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminum) and NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt) are predominantly used, and LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) cells are also produced for the Chinese market. For NMC cells, the proportions of the individual raw materials can vary. There is a trend toward higher nickel contents (for exam ple NMC 811) in favor of higher energy density and less dependence on cobalt. FIGURE 6 shows the resulting demand for the main materials in the cathode for all three scenarios. In addition to the increasing relative share of nickel in battery cells and the strong increase in absolute material demand between 2020 and 2030, a sig nificant difference between the scenarios can also be seen. Nevertheless, a short age of resources is not assumed for raw materials in the future [14] . Global demand for electric motors increases more than fourfold in all sce narios. Unlike battery cells, the produc tion of electric motors is already fre quently carried out by OEMs or direct existing suppliers themselves and can be flexibly adapted to demand. Overall, all regions show a significant increase in demand for xEVs in the com ing years. Except for the USA, the share of ICEVs will be less than 50 % in 2030. While HEVs/MHEVs and PHEVs/REEVs in Europe and HEVs/MHEVs and BEVs in the USA, respectively, are the domi nant alternatives to ICEVs in 2030, China shows a particularly strong development of BEVs. This underpins China's pioneer ing position in vehicle electrification. Government regulations represent the elementary instrument in the develop ment of electric mobility for all regions. For OEMs, the change means a shift in production and development. For the supplier industry, a competitive market is expected in the next ten years, espe cially for battery cell manufacturers. Competitive unique selling proposi tions such as high energy density as well as longer battery cell lifetime through developments in cell chemistry and low cost production can tip the balance for or against a successful market entry. For those who want to reach new heights, only the best will do. With adhesion, the international trade magazine for industrial adhesives and sealing technology, you will benefi t from valuable insider knowledge, practical information and the latest trends and technologies. Get access to the industry's largest knowledge pool -essential for gaining competitive advantage. Try our comprehensive service: four issues per year available as print and digital editions, website and newsletters, now optimized for mobile devices. As a subscriber, you also gain access to our comprehensive online archive with all contributions since 2003, plus the "Adhesives Technology Compendium" -the reference book for adhesives practitioners. For more information: www.my-specialized-knowledge.com/adhesion Get a Grip on Success on Success Analysen zur Automobilkonjunktur 2019. berlin Die Automobilindustrie in Daten und Fakten. berlin, 2020, p. 125 [3] international Energy Agency: Entering the decade of electric drive? Global EV outlook 2020 Rbc capital Markets: Rbc Electric Vehicle Forecast Through 2050 & Primer HSbc: Disruptive Technologies. carmakers versus new entrants. london Regulierung bei Pkw und leichten Nutzfahrzeugen. berlin international Energy Agency: Towards crossmodal electrification Who Will Drive EVs to the Tipping Point? boston, 2020, p. 5, p. 6 [9] international council on clean Transportation: china announced 2020-2022 subsidies for new energy vehicles. Wilmington, 2020 [10] china SAR: Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Muss die batterieproduktion in Deutschland neu gedacht werden Germany Trade & invest: Germany Welcomes Tesla Gigafactory to berlin-brandenburg location. bonn Karlsruhe, 2020, p. 12 f. active material in optimistic, moderate and pessimistic scenarios The authors would like to thank Philipp Heinzelmann and Constantin von Salis-Soglio, whose work results were significantly incorporated into this meta-analysis, for their support.