The purpose of this thesis is to assess the potential for conflict and cooperation over water resources in Central Asia and the world. The Aral Sea Basin is the focal point of the work. Using the examples of the Jordan River Basin, the Ganges-Brahmaputra River Basin and the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, the author illustrates the circumstances under which cooperation and military conflict are likely to develop in different contexts. The rising global water scarcity engendered by the increase in the population, consumption, living standards and deteriorating environmental conditions across the world will increase the probability of conflicts in the future. Water scarcity will amplify the competition and create severe pressures under which it will be hard for states that are part of transboundary river basins to conduct strictly sovereign water policies and avoid a conflict with other states.