id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
work_ye72d6oaabalfm543uim4ly3di	Roman Frigg	Laplace's Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices	2014	29	.pdf	application/pdf	11893	896	67	If a nonlinear model has only the slightest SME, then its ability to generate decision-relevant predictions is compromised. To account for their limited knowledge about initial conditions, each apprentice comes up with a probability distribution over relevant initial states, we mean the condition when the dynamical equations of the model differ forecasts are good in the sense that, conditioned on the information the Demon allows her ðspecifically her initial probability distribution p0 xð ÞÞ, she Evolution of the initial probability distribution under the Freshman's Even though the Freshman's dynamics are very close to the Demon's, his probabilities are off track: he regards events that do not happen Casino now offers odds reflecting the Freshman's probabilities. We see that the trajectories of the true initial condition under the two dynamical laws soon becomes completely different, and any prediction generated with the model is,	./cache/work_ye72d6oaabalfm543uim4ly3di.pdf	./txt/work_ye72d6oaabalfm543uim4ly3di.txt