id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
work_nmmvu7ylrzd4rg4nw6q5oibrom	Robert Northcott	Opinion Polling and Election Predictions	2015	12	.pdf	application/pdf	5254	422	61	Election prediction by means of opinion polling is a rare empirical success story for social Success required sophisticated use of case-specific evidence from opinion polling. that rational choice models, for instance, might not be predictively successful, nevertheless they are held to provide 'understanding' or 'underlying explanation'. the same poll aggregators have been successful in other elections too. 5. Although election prediction is the focus of this article, opinion polls, of course, only about 30%–40% of the variance in incumbent party vote share.19 Overall, the models do not predict individual election results very reliably. So a serious polling aggregator must build a new election prediction causal explanations, not even the poll aggregators; and second, that predictive success requires case-specific knowledge rather than a search for OPINION POLLING AND ELECTION PREDICTIONS 1271 OPINION POLLING AND ELECTION PREDICTIONS 1271 OPINION POLLING AND ELECTION PREDICTIONS 1271 OPINION POLLING AND ELECTION PREDICTIONS 1271	./cache/work_nmmvu7ylrzd4rg4nw6q5oibrom.pdf	./txt/work_nmmvu7ylrzd4rg4nw6q5oibrom.txt