id author title date pages extension mime words sentences flesch summary cache txt work_ecbog24aznhcxfojwlp53xqvju Samir Okasha The Evolution of Bayesian Updating 2013 17 .pdf application/pdf 7567 621 59 An evolutionary basis for Bayesian rationality is suggested, by considering how natural selection would operate on an organism's 'policy' for on receipt of a signal, chooses an action that does in fact maximize conditional expected payoff, then it is by definition implementing the Bayes policy. Given these assumptions, our argument shows that an organism will implement an evolutionarily optimal policy if it chooses between actions in accordance with expected utility maximization relative to its current belief state, Our result shows that, to maximise expected payoff relative to a prior distribution p, an organism should choose a policy which, for each signal, maximizes the Frank and Slatkin [6], Gillespie [9], Seger and Brockmann If an organism implements its policy, i.e. function from signals to actions, by using an (update rule, by Bayesian updating, assuming that its choice-of-action rule is 'maximize expected payoff in the updated state'. ./cache/work_ecbog24aznhcxfojwlp53xqvju.pdf ./txt/work_ecbog24aznhcxfojwlp53xqvju.txt