id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
work_cpjoobqvf5hifnyd6oe4e7x2vi	Susanna Rinard	A New Bayesian Solution to the Paradox of the Ravens	2014	35	.pdf	application/pdf	8667	751	77	The canonical Bayesian solution to the ravens paradox faces a problem: it entails that black The assumption rejected is that the probability of sampling a nonblack thing is independent of the proposition that all ravens are black. Paradoxical Conclusion, Revision 1 (PCR1): ~Ba~Ra confirms "All ravens are black" confirms "All ravens are black" relative to any background information K such that P(~Ba  upon first hearing the paradox, we find it so natural to think that black ravens confirm the problematic consequence: it entails that black non-ravens disconfirm the hypothesis that all Result 1: ~Ba~Ra does confirm "All ravens are black," relative to our actual background Result 2: RaBa confirms "All ravens are black," relative to our actual background about the color of ravens, but our beliefs about the number of black things do depend (in my claim that black ravens confirm relative to this minimal background information.	./cache/work_cpjoobqvf5hifnyd6oe4e7x2vi.pdf	./txt/work_cpjoobqvf5hifnyd6oe4e7x2vi.txt