id sid tid token lemma pos cord-326804-5psqro9d 1 1 key key NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 1 2 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 1 cord-326804 cord-326804 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 2 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 3 5psqro9d 5psqro9d CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 4 authors author NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 5 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 6 Wei Wei NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 7 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 8 Chen Chen NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 9 ; ; : cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 10 Wang Wang NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 11 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 12 Zhengyang Zhengyang NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 13 ; ; : cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 14 Liang Liang NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 15 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 16 Zhichao Zhichao NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 17 ; ; : cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 18 Liu Liu NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 2 19 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 3 1 Quanying Quanying NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 3 2 title title NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 3 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 2 focus focus NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 3 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 4 timing timing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 5 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 6 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 8 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 9 measures measure NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 10 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 11 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 12 resource resource NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 13 constraints constraint NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 14 date date NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 15 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 16 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 17 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 18 04 04 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 19 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 20 19 19 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 21 journal journal NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 22 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 23 nan nan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 24 DOI DOI NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 25 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 26 10.1101/2020.04.16.20067611 10.1101/2020.04.16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 27 sha sha NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 28 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 29 fe31b8de57488395e5386a4922aec8d0511f646e fe31b8de57488395e5386a4922aec8d0511f646e NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 30 doc_id doc_id CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 31 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 32 326804 326804 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 33 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 34 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 4 35 5psqro9d 5psqro9d CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 1 Generalizing generalize VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 2 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 3 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 4 strategies strategy NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 5 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 6 one one CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 7 community community NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 8 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 9 others other NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 10 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 11 confounded confound VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 12 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 13 community′s community′s JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 14 unique unique JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 15 demographic demographic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 16 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 17 socioeconomic socioeconomic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 18 attributes attribute NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 5 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 1 Here here RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 3 propose propose VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 4 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 5 tailored tailor VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 6 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 7 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 8 accounting account VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 9 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 10 community community NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 11 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 12 specific specific JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 13 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 14 controls control NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 15 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 16 medical medical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 17 resource resource NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 18 availability availability NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 6 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 2 trained train VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 4 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 5 using use VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 6 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 7 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 8 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 9 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 10 applied apply VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 12 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 13 other other JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 14 countries country NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 7 15 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 2 show show VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 3 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 4 isolating isolate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 5 suspected suspect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 6 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 7 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 8 most most RBS cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 9 effective effective JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 10 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 11 reducing reduce VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 12 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 13 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 14 if if IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 15 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 16 intervention intervention NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 17 starts start VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 18 early early RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 8 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 1 Having have VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 2 more more JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 3 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 4 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 5 provides provide VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 6 leverage leverage NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 7 that that WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 8 diminishes diminish VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 9 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 10 delayed delay VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 11 intervention intervention NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 12 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 9 13 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 2 importance importance NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 4 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 5 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 6 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 7 turn turn NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 8 increases increase NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 9 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 10 65 65 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 11 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 12 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 13 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 14 7-day 7-day JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 15 delay delay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 10 16 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 3 prolonging prolong VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 4 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 5 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 6 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 7 applying apply VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 8 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 9 intermediate intermediate JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 11 rather rather RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 12 than than IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 13 strict strict JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 14 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 15 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 16 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 17 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 18 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 19 prevent prevent VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 20 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 21 overload overload NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 22 regardless regardless RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 23 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 24 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 25 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 26 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 27 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 28 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 29 likely likely RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 30 result result VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 31 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 32 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 33 high high JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 34 ratio ratio NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 36 21 21 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 37 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 38 ~ ~ CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 39 84 84 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 40 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 42 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 43 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 44 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 45 being be VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 46 infected infect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 47 but but CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 48 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 49 treated treat VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 11 50 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 2 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 3 could could MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 4 help help VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 5 different different JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 6 countries country NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 7 design design NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 8 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 9 policies policy NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 10 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 11 gauge gauge VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 13 severity severity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 14 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 15 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 16 failure failure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 12 17 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 1 fixing fix VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 3 average average JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 4 period period NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 5 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 6 infectivity infectivity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 7 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 8 2.4 2.4 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 9 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 11 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 12 based base VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 13 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 14 current current JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 15 evidence evidence NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 16 6 6 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 17 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 18 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 19 too too RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 20 low low JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 21 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 22 likely likely RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 23 resulted result VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 24 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 25 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 26 over over IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 27 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 28 estimation estimation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 29 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 30 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 31 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 32 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 13 33 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 2 study study NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 3 further further RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 4 assuming assume VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 5 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 6 flat flat JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 7 0%/50%/75 0%/50%/75 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 8 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 9 drop drop NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 10 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 11 transmissibility transmissibility NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 12 following follow VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 13 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 14 city city NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 15 lockdown lockdown NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 14 16 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 1 Transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 2 models model NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 3 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 4 more more RBR cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 5 sophisticated sophisticated JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 6 assumptions assumption NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 7 have have VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 8 since since IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 9 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 10 proposed propose VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 11 7 7 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 12 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 13 8 8 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 14 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 15 including include VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 16 ones one NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 17 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 18 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 19 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 20 dependent dependent JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 21 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 22 policies policy NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 23 9 9 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 24 or or CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 25 non non JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 26 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 27 Markovian markovian JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 28 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 29 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 30 10 10 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 15 31 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 1 But but CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 2 these these DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 3 studies study NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 4 rarely rarely RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 5 made make VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 6 use use NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 7 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 8 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 9 beyond beyond IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 11 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 12 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 13 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 14 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 15 such such JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 16 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 18 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 19 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 20 suspected suspect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 21 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 16 22 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 1 Another another DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 2 key key JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 3 factor factor NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 4 that that WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 5 shall shall MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 7 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 8 neglected neglect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 9 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 10 modelling modelling NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 11 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 13 real real JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 14 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 15 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 16 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 17 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 18 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 17 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 1 While while IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 2 some some DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 3 studies study NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 4 have have VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 5 considered consider VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 6 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 7 impact impact NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 8 11 11 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 9 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 10 few few JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 11 have have VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 12 incorporated incorporate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 13 such such PDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 14 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 15 factor factor NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 16 dynamically dynamically RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 17 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 18 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 19 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 20 models model NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 18 21 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 2 availability availability NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 4 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 5 complete complete JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 6 set set NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 7 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 8 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 9 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 10 detailed detailed JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 11 records record NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 12 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 13 adopted adopt VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 14 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 15 policies policy NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 16 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 17 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 18 enables enable VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 19 us -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 20 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 21 construct construct VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 22 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 23 test test VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 24 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 26 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 27 that that WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 28 accounts account VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 29 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 30 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 31 factors factor NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 32 deciding decide VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 33 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 34 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 35 profile profile NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 36 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 37 including include VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 38 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 39 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 40 policy policy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 41 's 's POS cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 42 evolution evolution NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 43 through through IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 44 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 45 as as RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 46 well well RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 47 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 48 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 49 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 50 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 51 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 19 52 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 2 also also RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 3 dissected dissect VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 4 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 5 effect effect NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 6 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 7 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 8 proactive proactive JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 9 case case NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 10 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 11 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 12 adopted adopt VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 13 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 14 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 20 15 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 2 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 3 validated validate VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 4 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 5 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 6 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 7 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 8 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 9 potentially potentially RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 10 applicable applicable JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 11 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 12 other other JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 13 countries country NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 21 14 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 1 Subsequently subsequently RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 2 manipulating manipulate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 5 corresponding correspond VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 6 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 7 control control VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 8 strategies strategy NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 9 opens open VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 10 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 11 window window NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 12 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 13 evaluate evaluate VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 15 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 16 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 17 each each DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 18 policy policy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 19 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 20 certain certain JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 21 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 22 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 23 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 24 constraints constraint NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 22 25 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 2 gauged gauge VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 4 required require VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 5 NPI npi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 6 strength strength NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 7 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 8 timing timing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 9 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 10 other other JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 11 6 6 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 12 representative representative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 13 countries country NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 14 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 15 namely namely RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 16 US US NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 17 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 18 Italy Italy NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 19 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 20 France France NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 21 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 22 Germany Germany NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 23 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 24 Japan Japan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 25 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 26 Korea Korea NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 27 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 28 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 29 different different JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 30 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 31 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 32 availability availability NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 23 33 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 2 modified modify VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 3 SEIR seir NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 4 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 6 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 7 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 9 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 10 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 11 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 12 dependent dependent JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 13 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 14 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 15 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 16 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 17 timedependent timedependent NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 18 case case NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 19 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 20 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 21 testing testing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 22 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 23 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 24 non non JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 25 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 26 Markovian markovian JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 27 patient patient NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 28 discharge discharge NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 29 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 30 proposed propose VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 32 see see VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 33 Methods method NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 34 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 35 details detail NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 24 37 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 2 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 3 also also RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 4 imposes impose VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 5 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 6 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 7 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 8 upper upper JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 9 limit limit NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 25 10 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 1 Data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 2 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 3 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 4 between between IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 5 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 6 10 10 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 7 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 8 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 9 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 10 March March NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 11 11 11 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 12 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 13 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 14 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 15 used use VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 16 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 17 fit fit VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 18 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 19 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 20 parameters parameter NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 26 21 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 1 As as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 2 shown show VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 3 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 4 Figure Figure NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 5 2A 2a CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 6 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 7 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 8 combined combined JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 9 effect effect NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 10 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 11 increases increase NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 12 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 13 NPI npi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 14 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 15 case case NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 16 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 17 explained explain VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 18 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 19 successful successful JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 20 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 21 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 22 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 23 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 27 24 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 4 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 5 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 6 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 7 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 8 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 9 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 10 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 11 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 12 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 13 reduced reduce VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 14 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 15 31.0 31.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 16 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 17 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 18 pre pre JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 19 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 20 lockdown lockdown JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 21 level level NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 22 5 5 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 23 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 24 after after IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 25 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 26 23 23 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 27 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 28 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 29 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 30 approaching approach VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 31 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 32 asymptote asymptote NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 33 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 34 27.3 27.3 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 35 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 28 36 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 4 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 5 proportion proportion NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 6 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 7 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 8 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 9 being be VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 10 isolated isolate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 11 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 12 medical medical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 13 facilities facility NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 14 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 15 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 16 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 17 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 18 increased increase VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 19 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 20 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 21 starting start VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 22 estimate estimate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 23 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 24 0.017 0.017 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 25 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 26 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 27 10 10 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 28 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 29 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 30 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 31 0.081 0.081 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 32 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 33 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 34 28 28 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 35 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 36 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 29 37 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 2 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 3 proportion proportion NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 5 isolated isolate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 6 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 7 being be VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 8 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 9 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 10 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 11 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 12 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 13 started start VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 14 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 15 0.092 0.092 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 16 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 17 increased increase VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 18 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 19 0.22 0.22 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 20 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 21 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 22 28 28 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 23 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 24 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 30 25 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 2 basic basic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 4 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 5 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 6 corresponding correspond VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 7 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 9 initial initial JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 10 stage stage NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 11 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 13 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 14 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 15 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 16 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 18 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 19 3.48 3.48 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 31 20 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 1 Subsequently subsequently RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 4 synergistic synergistic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 5 effect effect NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 6 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 7 increasing increase VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 8 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 9 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 10 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 11 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 12 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 13 effectively effectively RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 14 reduced reduce VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 15 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 16 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 17 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 18 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 20 see see VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 21 Suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 22 success success NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 23 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 24 Methods method NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 26 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 27 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 28 below below IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 29 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 30 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 31 Feb Feb NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 32 28 28 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 33 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 34 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 35 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 36 subsequently subsequently RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 37 resulting result VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 38 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 39 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 40 suppressed suppress VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 41 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 42 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 44 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 45 2B 2b CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 32 47 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 2 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 3 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 5 early early JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 6 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 7 until until IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 8 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 9 18 18 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 11 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 12 combing comb VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 13 both both CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 15 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 16 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 17 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 18 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 19 5,101 5,101 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 20 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 21 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 22 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 23 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 24 line line NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 25 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 26 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 27 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 28 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 29 4,000 4,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 31 95 95 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 32 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 33 CI CI NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 35 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 36 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 37 000 000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 38 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 39 9 9 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 40 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 41 700 700 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 44 independently independently RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 45 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 46 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 47 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 48 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 49 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 50 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 51 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 52 exported export VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 53 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 54 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 55 internationally internationally RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 56 via via IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 57 air air NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 58 4 4 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 33 59 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 1 Throughout throughout IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 3 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 5 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 6 highest high JJS cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 7 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 8 occupancy occupancy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 9 attributed attribute VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 10 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 13 including include VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 14 both both CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 15 suspected suspect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 16 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 17 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 18 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 19 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 20 see see VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 21 Methods method NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 23 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 24 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 25 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 26 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 27 40,710 40,710 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 28 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 29 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 30 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 31 below below IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 32 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 33 reported report VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 34 maximum maximum JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 35 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 36 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 37 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 38 44,000 44,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 39 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 40 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 34 41 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 1 Alternatively alternatively RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 4 simulated simulate VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 5 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 6 without without IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 7 proactive proactive JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 8 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 9 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 11 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 13 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 14 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 15 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 16 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 17 reduced reduce VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 18 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 19 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 20 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 21 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 22 30 30 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 23 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 24 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 25 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 26 2 2 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 27 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 28 later later RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 29 than than IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 30 reality reality NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 32 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 33 2D 2d NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 35 35 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 1 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 2 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 3 case case NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 5 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 6 's 's POS cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 7 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 8 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 9 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 10 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 11 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 12 marginally marginally RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 13 saturated saturated JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 14 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 15 2 2 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 16 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 17 between between IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 18 February February NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 19 22,2020 22,2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 20 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 21 February February NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 22 23 23 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 23 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 24 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 26 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 27 2C 2c NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 36 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 1 However however RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 3 since since IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 4 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 5 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 7 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 8 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 9 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 10 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 11 way way NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 12 below below IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 13 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 14 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 15 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 16 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 17 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 18 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 19 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 20 saturation saturation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 21 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 22 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 23 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 24 still still RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 25 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 26 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 27 achieved achieve VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 37 28 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 1 Through through IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 2 cross cross NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 3 - - NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 4 validation validation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 6 see see VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 7 Model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 8 evaluation evaluation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 9 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 10 Methods method NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 12 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 14 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 15 shown show VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 16 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 18 timedependent timedependent NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 19 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 20 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 21 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 22 assumed assume VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 23 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 24 decreasing decrease VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 25 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 26 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 27 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 28 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 29 delay delay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 30 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 31 had have VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 32 lower low JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 33 prediction prediction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 34 error error NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 36 mean mean VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 37 ΔRMSE ΔRMSE NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 38 = = SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 39 -779 -779 NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 38 40 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 1 16 16 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 3 p(ΔRMSE p(δrmse JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 4 < < XX cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 5 0 0 NFP cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 7 = = SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 8 0.758 0.758 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 9 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 10 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 11 S2B S2B NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 13 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 14 compared compare VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 15 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 16 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 17 null null JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 18 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 19 that that WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 20 assumed assume VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 21 those those DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 22 factors factor NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 23 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 24 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 25 constant constant JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 39 26 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 1 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 2 addition addition NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 3 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 4 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 5 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 6 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 7 dependent dependent JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 8 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 9 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 10 make make VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 11 increasingly increasingly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 12 better well JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 13 predictions prediction NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 14 than than IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 15 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 16 null null JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 17 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 18 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 19 future future JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 20 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 21 points point NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 22 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 23 accumulating accumulate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 24 evidence evidence NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 26 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 27 S2A s2a NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 40 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 2 further further RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 3 estimated estimate VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 4 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 5 effects effect NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 6 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 7 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 8 timing timing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 9 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 10 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 11 policy policy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 12 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 13 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 14 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 41 15 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 2 utility utility NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 4 isolating isolate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 5 suspected suspect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 6 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 7 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 8 evaluated evaluate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 9 based base VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 10 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 11 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 12 influence influence NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 13 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 15 NPI NPI NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 16 strength strength NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 17 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 18 required require VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 19 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 20 successful successful JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 21 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 42 22 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 2 criterion criterion NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 3 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 4 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 5 successful successful JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 6 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 7 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 8 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 9 reduce reduce VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 11 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 13 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 14 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 15 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 16 before before IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 17 all all DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 18 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 19 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 20 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 21 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 22 occupied occupy VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 43 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 1 As as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 2 seen see VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 3 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 4 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 5 3A 3a NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 6 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 7 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 8 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 9 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 10 successful successful JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 11 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 12 clearly clearly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 13 defined define VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 15 resulting result VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 16 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 17 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 18 total total JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 19 infections infection NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 44 20 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 2 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 4 total total JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 5 infections infection NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 6 exhibited exhibit VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 7 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 8 noticeably noticeably RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 9 discontinuous discontinuous JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 10 jump jump NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 11 around around IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 13 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 14 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 45 15 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 1 While while IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 2 successful successful JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 3 suppressions suppression NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 4 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 5 cause cause VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 7 small small JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 8 percentage percentage NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 10 median median NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 11 = = SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 12 0.46 0.46 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 13 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 15 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 16 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 17 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 18 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 19 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 20 infected infect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 21 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 22 failed fail VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 23 suppressions suppression NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 24 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 25 lead lead VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 26 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 27 much much RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 28 more more JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 29 infections infection NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 31 median median NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 32 = = SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 33 96.6 96.6 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 34 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 46 36 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 1 Naturally naturally RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 4 further further RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 5 delayed delay VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 6 had have VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 7 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 8 implementation implementation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 9 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 10 controls control NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 11 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 12 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 13 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 14 harder hard RBR cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 16 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 17 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 18 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 19 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 20 achieve achieve VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 21 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 47 22 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 1 Compared compare VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 2 against against IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 4 alternative alternative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 5 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 6 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 7 only only RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 8 hospitalizing hospitalize VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 9 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 10 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 12 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 13 3B 3b CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 15 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 16 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 17 's 's POS cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 18 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 19 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 20 hospitalizing hospitalize VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 21 both both CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 22 confirmed confirm VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 23 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 24 suspected suspect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 25 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 26 won win VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 27 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 28 margin margin NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 29 worth worth JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 30 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 31 1.4 1.4 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 32 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 33 decrease decrease NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 34 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 35 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 36 requirement requirement NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 38 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 39 3C&E 3c&e CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 48 41 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 1 Nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 3 fitting fitting JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 4 results result NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 5 showed show VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 6 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 7 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 8 's 's POS cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 9 NPI npi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 10 strength strength NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 11 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 12 timing timing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 13 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 14 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 15 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 16 adequate adequate JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 18 put put VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 20 city city NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 21 well well RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 22 above above IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 23 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 24 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 25 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 26 even even RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 27 without without IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 28 proactive proactive JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 29 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 31 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 32 3B 3b CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 49 34 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 2 benefit benefit NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 3 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 4 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 5 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 6 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 7 largest large JJS cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 8 if if IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 9 actions action NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 10 had have VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 11 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 12 taken take VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 13 as as RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 14 early early RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 15 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 16 possible possible JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 17 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 18 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 19 otherwise otherwise RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 20 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 21 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 22 diminished diminish VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 23 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 24 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 25 29 29 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 26 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 27 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 28 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 29 only only RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 30 6 6 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 31 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 32 later later RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 33 than than IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 34 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 35 actual actual JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 36 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 37 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 38 intervention intervention NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 50 39 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 1 Should Should MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 2 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 3 fail fail VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 5 however however RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 6 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 7 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 8 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 9 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 10 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 11 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 12 had have VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 13 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 14 negative negative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 15 impact impact NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 16 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 18 total total JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 19 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 20 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 21 infected infected JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 22 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 51 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 1 At at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 2 most most RBS cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 3 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 4 extra extra JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 5 1.2 1.2 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 6 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 7 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 9 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 10 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 11 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 12 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 13 infected infect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 15 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 16 = = SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 17 +6 +6 NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 18 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 19 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 20 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 21 = = SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 22 0.20 0.20 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 24 given give VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 25 proactive proactive JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 26 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 28 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 29 3C 3c NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 52 31 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 3 increasing increase VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 4 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 5 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 6 limit limit NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 7 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 8 4.8 4.8 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 9 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 11 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 12 real real JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 13 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 14 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 15 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 17 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 18 8.0 8.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 19 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 20 per per IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 21 1,000 1,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 22 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 23 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 24 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 25 provided provide VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 26 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 27 further further JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 28 cushion cushion NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 29 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 30 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 31 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 32 reduction reduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 33 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 34 but but CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 35 such such PDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 36 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 37 advantage advantage NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 38 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 39 also also RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 40 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 41 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 42 diminished diminish VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 43 if if IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 44 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 45 intervention intervention NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 46 had have VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 47 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 48 postponed postpone VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 49 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 50 9 9 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 51 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 52 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 53 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 54 3D&E 3d&e CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 55 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 53 56 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 1 Since since IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 2 most most JJS cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 3 countries country NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 4 did do VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 5 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 6 perform perform VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 7 proactive proactive JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 8 isolations isolation NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 9 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 11 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 12 without without IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 13 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 14 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 15 cohort cohort NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 16 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 17 further further RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 18 examined examine VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 54 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 55 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 55 2 manipulated manipulate VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 55 3 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 55 4 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 55 5 capacities capacity NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 55 6 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 55 7 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 55 8 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 56 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 56 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 56 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 56 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 56 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 56 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 57 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 58 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 59 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 59 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 59 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 59 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 59 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 59 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 59 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 1 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 2 national national JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 3 averages average NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 5 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 6 searched search VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 7 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 9 suited suited JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 10 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 11 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 12 measures measure NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 13 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 14 certain certain JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 15 communities community NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 60 16 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 1 Both both DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 3 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 5 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 6 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 7 overload overload NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 8 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 9 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 10 final final JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 11 proportion proportion NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 12 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 13 infected infected JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 14 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 15 were be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 16 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 17 measurements measurement NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 18 used use VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 19 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 20 evaluate evaluate VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 21 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 22 outcomes outcome NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 61 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 2 two two CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 3 measurements measurement NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 4 showed show VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 5 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 6 same same JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 7 steep steep JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 8 jump jump NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 9 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 10 value value NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 11 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 12 indicating indicate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 13 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 14 failure failure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 16 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 17 4A 4a NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 18 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 19 B b NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 20 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 21 D&E D&E NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 62 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 1 This this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 2 jump jump NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 3 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 4 well well RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 5 captured capture VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 6 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 7 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 8 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 9 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 10 derived derive VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 11 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 13 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 14 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 15 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 18 blue blue JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 19 curves curve NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 20 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 21 respective respective JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 22 panels panel NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 63 24 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 1 Compared compare VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 2 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 4 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 5 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 6 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 7 US US NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 8 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 9 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 10 high high JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 11 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 12 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 13 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 14 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 15 Germany Germany NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 16 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 17 yield yield VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 18 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 19 higher high JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 20 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 21 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 22 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 24 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 25 4C 4c CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 26 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 27 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 28 ∆β ∆β NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 29 = = SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 30 0.10 0.10 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 64 32 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 1 But but CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 2 such such PDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 3 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 4 advantage advantage NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 5 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 6 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 7 greatly greatly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 8 reduced reduce VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 9 if if IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 10 interventions intervention NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 11 were be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 12 delayed delay VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 13 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 14 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 15 week week NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 17 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 18 4F 4f NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 19 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 20 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 21 ∆β ∆β NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 22 = = SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 23 0.065 0.065 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 65 25 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 1 By by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 2 regressing regress VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 4 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 5 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 6 level level NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 7 relative relative NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 8 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 9 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 10 log log NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 11 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 12 transformed transform VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 13 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 14 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 15 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 16 per per IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 17 1,000 1,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 18 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 19 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 20 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 21 range range NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 22 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 23 intervention intervention NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 24 onsets onset NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 26 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 27 5A 5a NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 29 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 30 we -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 31 found find VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 32 that that DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 33 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 34 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 35 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 36 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 37 play play VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 38 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 39 most most RBS cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 40 important important JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 41 role role NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 42 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 43 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 44 intervention intervention NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 45 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 46 2 2 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 47 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 48 later later RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 49 than than IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 50 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 66 51 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 1 But but CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 2 having have VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 3 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 4 advantage advantage NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 5 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 6 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 7 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 8 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 9 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 10 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 11 less less RBR cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 12 relevant relevant JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 13 if if IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 15 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 16 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 17 further further RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 18 delayed delay VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 20 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 21 5B 5b NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 67 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 4 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 5 utility utility NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 6 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 7 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 8 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 9 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 10 relation relation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 11 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 12 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 13 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 14 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 15 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 16 increased increase VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 17 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 18 64.9 64.9 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 19 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 20 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 21 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 22 7-day 7-day JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 23 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 24 delay delay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 26 slope slope NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 27 shifted shift VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 28 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 29 9.50 9.50 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 30 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 31 5.76 5.76 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 68 33 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 2 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 4 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 5 overload overload NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 6 followed follow VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 7 closely closely RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 9 total total JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 10 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 11 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 13 +0 +0 FW cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 14 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 15 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 16 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 17 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 18 attempt attempt NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 19 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 20 evaluate evaluate VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 21 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 22 seriousness seriousness NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 23 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 24 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 25 failure failure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 26 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 27 we -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 28 examined examine VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 29 scenarios scenario NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 30 where where WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 31 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 32 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 33 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 34 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 35 level level NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 69 36 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 2 community community NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 3 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 4 Germany Germany NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 5 level level NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 6 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 7 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 8 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 10 8.0 8.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 11 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 12 per per IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 13 1,000 1,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 14 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 16 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 17 acting act VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 18 as as RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 19 promptly promptly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 20 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 21 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 23 0 0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 24 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 25 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 26 delay delay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 28 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 29 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 30 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 31 high high JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 32 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 33 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 70 34 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 1 But but CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 2 if if IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 3 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 4 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 5 requirements requirement NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 6 were be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 7 relaxed relax VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 8 too too RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 9 much much RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 12 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 13 still still RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 14 see see VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 15 83.3 83.3 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 16 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 17 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 18 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 19 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 20 infected infect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 21 but but CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 71 22 untreated untreated JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 72 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 72 2 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 72 3 4C 4c CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 72 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 72 5 right right JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 72 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 72 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 1 To to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 2 generalize generalize VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 3 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 5 simulated simulate VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 6 such such JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 7 scenarios scenario NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 8 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 9 0 0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 10 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 11 7 7 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 12 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 13 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 14 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 15 delay delay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 16 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 17 2.8 2.8 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 18 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 19 8.0 8.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 20 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 21 per per IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 22 1,000 1,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 23 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 25 see see VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 26 Figure Figure NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 27 S3 S3 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 73 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 2 results result NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 3 suggested suggest VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 4 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 5 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 6 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 7 levels level NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 8 just just RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 9 short short RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 10 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 11 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 12 requirement requirement NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 13 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 14 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 15 only only RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 16 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 17 yield yield VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 18 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 74 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 75 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 75 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 75 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 75 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 75 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 75 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 76 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 77 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 78 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 78 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 78 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 78 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 78 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 78 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 78 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 1 longest long JJS cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 2 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 3 durations duration NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 5 but but CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 6 also also RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 7 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 8 result result VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 9 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 11 size size NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 12 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 13 untreated untreated JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 14 patients patient NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 15 amounting amount VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 16 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 17 anywhere anywhere RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 18 between between IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 19 21.9 21.9 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 20 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 21 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 22 83.7 83.7 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 23 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 24 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 25 total total JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 26 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 79 27 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 2 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 3 allowed allow VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 4 retrospective retrospective JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 5 analyses analysis NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 6 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 7 counterfactual counterfactual JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 8 reasoning reasoning NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 9 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 10 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 11 's 's POS cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 12 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 13 policies policy NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 80 14 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 1 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 2 's 's POS cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 3 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 4 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 5 proactively proactively RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 6 isolate isolate VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 7 all all DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 8 suspected suspect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 9 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 11 effectively effectively RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 12 removed remove VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 13 patients patient NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 14 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 15 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 16 infectious infectious JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 17 pool pool NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 18 ; ; : cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 19 otherwise otherwise RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 20 waiting wait VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 21 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 22 confirmation confirmation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 23 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 24 lead lead VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 25 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 26 heavier heavy JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 27 reliance reliance NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 28 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 29 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 30 laboratory laboratory NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 31 testing testing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 32 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 33 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 34 thus thus RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 35 leaving leave VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 36 more more JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 37 infectious infectious JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 38 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 39 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 40 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 41 community community NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 81 42 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 1 Serving serve VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 2 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 3 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 4 buffer buffer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 5 between between IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 6 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 7 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 8 cohort cohort NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 9 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 11 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 12 cohort cohort NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 13 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 14 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 15 's 's POS cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 16 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 17 bought buy VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 18 extra extra JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 19 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 20 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 21 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 22 culmination culmination NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 23 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 24 medical medical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 25 resources resource NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 26 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 27 all all DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 28 departments department NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 29 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 30 including include VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 31 extra extra JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 32 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 33 provincial provincial JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 34 medical medical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 35 staff staff NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 36 dispatch dispatch NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 37 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 38 test test NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 39 kit kit NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 40 production production NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 41 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 42 new new JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 43 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 44 construction construction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 82 45 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 2 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 3 showed show VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 4 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 5 such such PDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 7 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 8 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 9 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 10 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 11 implemented implement VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 12 soon soon RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 13 enough enough JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 15 6 6 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 16 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 17 until until IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 18 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 19 advantage advantage NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 20 diminished diminish VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 22 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 23 provide provide VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 24 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 25 relieved relieved JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 26 NPI npi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 27 strength strength NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 28 required require VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 29 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 30 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 83 31 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 3 proactive proactive JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 4 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 5 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 6 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 7 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 8 also also RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 9 beneficial beneficial JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 10 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 11 reducing reduce VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 12 peak peak JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 13 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 14 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 15 occupancy occupancy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 17 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 18 44,000 44,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 19 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 20 40,710 40,710 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 84 22 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 1 As as RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 2 long long RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 3 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 4 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 5 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 6 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 7 had have VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 8 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 9 strong strong JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 10 enough enough RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 11 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 12 such such JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 13 positive positive JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 14 outcomes outcome NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 15 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 16 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 17 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 18 warranted warrant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 19 regardless regardless RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 20 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 21 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 22 timing timing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 23 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 24 NPI NPI NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 85 25 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 1 However however RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 3 if if IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 4 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 5 measures measure NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 6 had have VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 7 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 8 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 9 sufficiently sufficiently RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 10 strong strong JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 11 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 12 suppress suppress VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 13 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 14 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 15 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 16 isolating isolate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 17 all all DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 18 suspected suspect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 19 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 20 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 21 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 22 had have VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 23 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 24 negative negative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 25 outcome outcome NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 26 due due IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 27 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 28 imposing impose VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 29 extra extra JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 30 stress stress NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 31 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 32 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 33 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 34 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 86 35 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 1 More more RBR cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 2 generally generally RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 3 speaking speak VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 5 increasing increase VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 6 NPI npi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 7 strength strength NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 8 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 9 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 10 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 11 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 12 both both DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 13 contribute contribute VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 14 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 15 successfully successfully RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 16 suppressing suppress VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 18 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 87 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 1 However however RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 4 trade trade NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 5 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 6 off off NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 7 between between IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 8 investing invest VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 9 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 10 stronger strong JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 11 NPI npi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 12 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 13 larger large JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 14 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 15 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 16 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 17 depends depend VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 18 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 19 how how WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 20 promptly promptly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 21 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 22 community community NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 23 responds respond VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 88 24 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 1 As as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 2 suggested suggest VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 3 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 4 Figure Figure NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 5 4 4 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 6 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 7 when when WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 9 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 10 measures measure NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 11 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 12 delayed delay VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 13 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 15 early early JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 16 window window NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 17 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 18 missed miss VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 19 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 20 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 21 only only RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 22 does do VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 23 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 24 overall overall JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 25 difficulty difficulty NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 26 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 27 suppress suppress VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 28 become become VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 29 higher high JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 30 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 31 advantages advantage NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 32 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 33 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 34 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 35 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 36 also also RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 37 quickly quickly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 38 diminish diminish VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 89 39 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 1 Delaying delay VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 2 intervention intervention NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 3 renders render VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 4 investing invest VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 5 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 6 NPI NPI NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 7 increasingly increasingly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 8 more more RBR cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 9 efficient efficient JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 10 than than IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 11 boosting boost VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 12 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 13 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 14 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 16 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 17 5B 5b NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 90 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 1 Failing fail VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 2 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 3 suppress suppress VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 4 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 5 cost cost VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 6 countries country NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 7 even even RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 8 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 9 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 10 world world NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 11 's 's POS cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 12 more more RBR cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 13 abundant abundant JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 14 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 15 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 16 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 17 steep steep JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 18 increase increase NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 19 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 20 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 21 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 22 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 23 untreated untreated JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 24 infections infection NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 91 25 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 1 Meanwhile meanwhile RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 3 said say VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 4 communities community NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 5 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 6 suffer suffer VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 7 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 8 extended extended JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 9 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 10 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 11 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 12 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 13 overflow overflow NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 92 14 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 2 " " `` cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 3 flattening flatten VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 4 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 5 curve curve NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 6 " " '' cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 7 notion notion NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 8 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 9 first first RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 10 illustrated illustrate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 11 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 12 US US NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 13 Centers Centers NNPS cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 14 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 15 Disease Disease NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 16 Control Control NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 17 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 18 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 20 CDC CDC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 22 12 12 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 23 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 24 later later RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 25 popularized popularize VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 26 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 27 social social JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 28 media medium NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 93 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 94 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 94 2 advocates advocate VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 94 3 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 94 4 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 94 5 level level NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 94 6 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 94 7 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 94 8 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 95 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 95 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 95 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 95 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 95 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 95 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 96 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 97 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 98 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 98 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 98 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 98 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 98 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 98 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 98 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 99 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 99 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 100 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 100 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 100 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 2 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 3 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 4 that that WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 5 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 6 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 7 enough enough JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 8 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 9 lower lower VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 11 peak peak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 12 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 13 patient patient JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 14 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 15 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 16 prolonging prolong VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 18 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 19 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 20 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 21 thus thus RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 22 preventing prevent VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 23 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 24 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 25 overflow overflow NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 101 26 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 1 However however RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 4 simulation simulation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 5 proved prove VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 6 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 7 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 8 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 9 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 10 flawed flaw VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 11 regarding regard VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 12 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 14 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 15 4 4 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 102 17 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 1 Successful successful JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 2 suppressions suppression NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 3 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 4 featured feature VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 5 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 6 greatly greatly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 7 reduced reduce VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 8 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 9 size size NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 10 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 11 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 103 12 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 1 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 2 contrast contrast NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 3 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 4 prolonged prolong VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 5 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 6 durations duration NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 7 indicate indicate VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 8 inadequate inadequate JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 9 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 10 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 11 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 12 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 13 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 14 case case NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 15 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 16 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 17 overload overload NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 18 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 19 unavoidable unavoidable JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 21 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 22 4C&F 4c&f CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 104 24 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 1 Consequently consequently RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 4 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 5 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 6 untreated untreated JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 7 infections infection NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 9 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 10 thus thus RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 11 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 12 death death NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 13 toll toll NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 15 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 16 outgrow outgrow VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 17 that that DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 18 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 20 treated treat VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 21 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 22 orders order NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 23 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 24 magnitude magnitude NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 26 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 27 4F 4f CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 105 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 1 Either either DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 2 consequence consequence NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 3 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 4 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 5 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 6 violation violation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 7 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 9 goals goal NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 10 behind behind IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 11 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 12 " " `` cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 13 flattening flatten VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 15 curve curve NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 16 " " '' cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 17 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 106 18 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 107 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 107 2 similar similar JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 107 3 conclusion conclusion NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 107 4 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 107 5 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 107 6 drawn draw VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 107 7 11 11 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 2 timing timing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 3 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 4 lifting lift VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 5 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 6 policies policy NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 7 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 9 potential potential NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 10 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 11 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 12 rebound rebound NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 13 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 14 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 15 thereafter thereafter RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 16 were be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 17 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 18 explicitly explicitly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 19 investigated investigate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 20 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 21 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 22 study study NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 108 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 1 Under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 2 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 3 given give VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 4 situation situation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 5 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 6 successful successful JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 7 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 8 where where WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 9 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 10 majority majority NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 11 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 13 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 14 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 15 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 16 infected infect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 17 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 18 herd herd NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 19 immunity immunity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 20 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 21 have have VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 22 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 23 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 24 established establish VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 25 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 26 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 27 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 28 wide wide JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 29 vaccination vaccination NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 30 11 11 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 31 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 32 17 17 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 109 33 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 1 Until until IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 2 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 3 effective effective JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 4 vaccine vaccine NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 5 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 6 developed develop VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 7 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 8 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 9 partial partial JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 10 relaxation relaxation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 11 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 12 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 13 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 14 policies policy NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 15 while while IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 16 maintaining maintain VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 17 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 18 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 19 nonetheless nonetheless RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 20 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 21 potentially potentially RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 22 achievable achievable JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 23 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 24 ensuring ensure VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 25 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 26 close close JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 27 monitoring monitoring NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 28 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 29 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 30 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 31 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 32 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 110 33 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 2 reason reason NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 3 behind behind IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 6 evident evident JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 7 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 8 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 9 _SP cord-326804-5psqro9d 111 10 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 112 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 112 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 112 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 112 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 112 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 112 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 113 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 114 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 115 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 115 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 115 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 115 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 115 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 115 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 115 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 116 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 116 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 117 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 117 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 117 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 2 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 3 3&4 3&4 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 4 where where WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 5 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 6 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 7 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 8 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 9 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 11 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 12 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 13 hospital hospital NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 14 overload overload NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 15 proved prove VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 16 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 17 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 18 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 19 clear clear JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 20 indicator indicator NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 21 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 22 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 23 success success NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 118 24 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 1 Giving give VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 2 up up RP cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 3 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 4 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 5 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 6 achieve achieve VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 7 herd herd NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 8 immunity immunity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 9 might may MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 10 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 11 adopted adopt VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 12 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 13 some some DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 14 communities community NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 119 15 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 1 Such such PDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 2 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 3 proposal proposal NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 4 could could MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 5 turn turn VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 6 out out RP cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 7 even even RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 8 more more RBR cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 9 ineffectual ineffectual JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 10 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 11 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 12 wake wake NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 13 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 15 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 16 depending depend VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 17 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 18 SARS SARS NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 19 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 20 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 21 immunity immunity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 22 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 120 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 1 Herd herd NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 2 immunity immunity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 3 achieves achieve VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 4 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 5 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 6 reduction reduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 7 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 8 removing remove VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 9 individuals individual NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 10 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 11 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 12 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 13 pool pool NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 121 14 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 1 Based base VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 2 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 3 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 4 estimated estimated JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 5 basic basic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 7 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 8 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 9 3.48 3.48 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 10 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 11 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 12 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 13 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 14 71 71 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 15 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 16 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 18 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 19 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 20 need need VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 21 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 22 build build VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 23 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 24 sustain sustain VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 25 immunity immunity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 26 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 27 SARS SARS NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 28 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 29 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 30 ; ; : cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 31 otherwise otherwise RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 32 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 33 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 34 reintroduction reintroduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 35 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 36 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 37 pathogen pathogen NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 38 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 39 cause cause VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 40 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 41 disease disease NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 42 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 43 circulate circulate VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 44 again again RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 122 45 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 1 Another another DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 2 issue issue NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 3 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 4 herd herd NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 5 immunity immunity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 6 strategy strategy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 7 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 9 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 10 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 11 immunity immunity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 123 12 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 1 Although although IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 2 conclusions conclusion NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 3 varied varied JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 5 evidence evidence NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 6 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 7 SARS SARS NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 8 suggested suggest VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 9 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 10 significant significant JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 11 antibody antibody NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 12 reduction reduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 13 2 2 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 14 years year NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 15 after after IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 16 infection infection NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 17 [ [ -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 18 18 18 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 20 [ [ -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 21 19 19 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 22 ] ] -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 24 20 20 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 124 26 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 1 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 2 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 3 case case NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 5 longitudinal longitudinal JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 6 studies study NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 7 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 8 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 9 topic topic NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 10 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 12 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 13 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 14 crucial crucial JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 15 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 16 designing design VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 17 vaccination vaccination NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 18 strategies strategy NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 125 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 1 As as RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 2 much much RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 3 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 5 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 6 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 7 used use VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 8 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 9 describe describe VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 11 intrinsic intrinsic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 12 properties property NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 13 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 14 COIVD-19 coivd-19 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 15 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 16 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 17 basic basic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 18 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 19 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 20 0 0 NFP cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 21 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 22 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 23 function function NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 24 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 25 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 26 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 27 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 28 0 0 NFP cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 29 that that WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 30 depends depend VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 31 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 32 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 33 frequency frequency NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 34 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 35 human human JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 36 contact contact NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 126 37 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 1 An an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 2 0 0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 3 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 4 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 5 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 6 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 7 thus thus RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 8 most most RBS cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 9 suited suited JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 10 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 11 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 12 transferred transfer VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 13 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 14 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 15 community community NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 16 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 17 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 18 similar similar JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 19 level level NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 20 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 21 social social JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 22 interactions interaction NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 127 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 1 This this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 3 especially especially RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 4 true true JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 5 when when WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 6 trying try VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 7 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 8 describe describe VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 9 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 10 early early JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 11 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 12 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 13 when when WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 14 no no DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 15 controls control NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 16 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 17 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 18 place place NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 128 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 1 Subsequent subsequent JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 2 description description NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 4 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 5 policy policy NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 6 strength strength NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 7 using use VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 8 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 9 introduces introduce VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 10 flexibility flexibility NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 11 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 12 accounting account VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 13 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 14 all all DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 15 factors factor NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 16 influencing influence VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 17 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 18 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 129 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 1 Another another DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 2 caveat caveat NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 3 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 4 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 5 current current JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 6 study study NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 7 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 8 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 10 neglected neglect VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 11 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 12 inter inter JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 13 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 14 community community JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 15 traffic traffic NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 16 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 18 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 19 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 20 rendering render VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 21 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 22 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 23 most most RBS cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 24 fitting fitting JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 25 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 26 apply apply VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 27 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 28 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 29 community community NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 30 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 31 total total JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 32 lockdown lockdown NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 130 33 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 1 At at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 3 city city NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 4 level level NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 5 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 6 discussions discussion NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 7 have have VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 8 started start VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 9 regarding regard VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 10 locking lock VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 11 down down RP cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 12 certain certain JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 13 hot hot JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 14 spots spot NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 131 15 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 1 At at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 3 country country NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 4 level level NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 5 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 6 many many JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 7 have have VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 8 closed close VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 9 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 10 borders border NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 11 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 12 non non JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 13 - - NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 14 citizens citizen NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 132 15 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 1 As as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 3 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 5 internationally internationally RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 6 imported import VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 7 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 8 grew grow VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 9 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 10 China China NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 11 announced announce VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 12 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 14 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 15 follow follow VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 16 suit suit NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 17 starting start VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 18 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 19 March March NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 20 28 28 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 21 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 22 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 133 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 1 Partial partial JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 2 inter inter JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 3 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 4 city city JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 5 traffic traffic NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 6 reduction reduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 7 only only RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 8 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 9 been be VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 10 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 11 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 12 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 13 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 14 effective effective JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 15 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 16 preventing prevent VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 17 inter inter JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 18 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 19 community community NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 20 spread spread VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 21 5,21 5,21 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 22 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 23 thus thus RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 24 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 25 impact impact NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 26 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 27 travel travel NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 28 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 29 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 30 development development NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 31 through through IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 32 increasing increase VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 33 both both DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 34 numbers number NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 35 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 36 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 37 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 38 infectious infectious JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 39 individuals individual NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 40 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 41 need need VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 42 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 43 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 44 carefully carefully RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 45 evaluated evaluate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 46 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 47 future future JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 48 decision decision NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 49 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 50 making making NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 51 when when WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 52 reassessing reassess VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 53 lockdowns lockdown NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 54 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 134 55 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 135 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 135 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 135 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 135 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 135 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 135 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 136 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 137 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 138 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 138 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 138 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 138 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 138 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 138 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 138 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 139 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 139 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 140 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 140 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 140 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 2 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 3 Daily Daily NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 4 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 5 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 6 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 7 10 10 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 8 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 9 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 10 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 11 March March NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 12 11 11 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 13 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 141 14 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 1 By by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 2 examining examine VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 4 evolution evolution NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 5 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 6 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 7 suspected suspect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 8 case case NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 9 count count NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 10 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 11 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 12 preceding precede VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 13 February February NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 14 12 12 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 15 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 16 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 17 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 18 we -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 19 concluded conclude VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 20 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 21 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 22 spike spike NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 23 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 24 February February NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 25 12 12 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 26 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 27 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 28 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 29 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 30 delayed delay VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 31 lump lump NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 32 report report NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 33 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 34 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 35 being be VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 36 cumulatively cumulatively RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 37 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 38 since since IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 39 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 40 new new JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 41 criterion criterion NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 42 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 43 implemented implement VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 44 22 22 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 142 45 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 1 Thus thus RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 3 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 4 order order NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 5 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 6 better better RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 7 represent represent VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 9 historical historical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 10 trend trend NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 11 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 13 testing testing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 14 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 15 growth growth NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 16 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 17 maintain maintain VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 18 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 19 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 20 count count NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 21 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 22 February February NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 23 12 12 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 24 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 25 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 26 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 27 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 28 newly newly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 29 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 30 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 31 officially officially RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 32 reported report VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 33 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 34 February February NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 35 12 12 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 36 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 37 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 38 were be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 39 retrospectively retrospectively RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 40 assigned assign VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 41 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 42 9 9 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 43 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 44 between between IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 45 February February NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 46 4 4 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 47 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 48 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 49 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 50 February February NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 51 12 12 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 52 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 53 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 54 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 55 assuming assume VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 56 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 57 linear linear JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 58 increase increase NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 59 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 60 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 61 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 62 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 63 through through IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 64 clinical clinical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 65 diagnosis diagnosis NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 66 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 67 Figure Figure NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 68 S1 S1 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 69 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 143 70 _SP cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 2 modified modify VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 3 SEIR seir NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 4 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 6 proposed propose VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 7 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 8 coded code VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 9 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 10 Python Python NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 144 11 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 1 All all DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 2 citizens citizen NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 3 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 4 assumed assume VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 5 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 6 belong belong VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 7 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 9 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 10 cohort cohort NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 13 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 15 beginning beginning NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 16 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 18 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 145 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 1 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 3 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 5 asserts assert VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 6 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 7 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 8 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 9 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 10 infected infect VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 11 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 12 coming come VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 13 into into IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 14 contact contact NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 15 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 16 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 17 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 18 cohort cohort NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 21 as as RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 22 well well RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 23 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 24 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 25 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 26 cohort cohort NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 29 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 30 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 31 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 32 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 33 dependent dependent JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 34 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 35 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 36 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 146 39 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 2 latent latent JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 3 cohort cohort NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 4 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 5 set set VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 6 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 7 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 8 50 50 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 9 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 10 as as RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 12 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 13 according accord VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 14 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 15 previous previous JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 16 literature literature NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 17 24- 24- NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 18 29 29 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 147 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 148 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 148 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 149 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 149 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 149 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 149 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 149 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 149 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 150 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 151 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 152 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 152 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 152 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 152 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 152 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 152 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 152 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 153 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 153 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 154 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 154 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 154 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 2 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 3 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 4 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 5 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 6 converted convert VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 7 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 9 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 11 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 12 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 13 average average JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 14 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 15 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 16 1/ 1/ CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 17 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 18 seen see VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 19 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 20 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 22 2 2 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 25 7 7 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 27 specifies specify VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 28 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 29 exponential exponential JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 30 decrease decrease NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 31 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 32 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 33 delay delay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 34 starting start VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 35 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 36 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 37 10 10 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 38 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 39 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 41 0 0 NFP cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 43 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 44 while while IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 45 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 46 decrease decrease NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 47 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 48 testing testing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 49 delay delay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 50 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 51 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 52 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 53 8) 8) NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 54 follows follow VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 55 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 56 same same JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 57 exponential exponential JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 58 trend trend NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 59 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 60 that that DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 61 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 62 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 63 delay delay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 64 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 65 reflecting reflect VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 66 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 67 synchronization synchronization NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 68 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 69 resources resource NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 70 utilized utilize VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 71 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 72 either either DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 73 process process NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 74 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 75 e.g. e.g. DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 76 medical medical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 77 staff staff NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 78 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 155 79 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 2 constraint constraint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 4 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 5 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 6 capacity capacity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 7 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 8 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 9 upper upper JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 10 limit limit NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 11 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 12 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 13 limits limit VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 15 combine combine NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 16 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 17 occupied occupy VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 18 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 19 i i PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 22 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 23 c c NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 26 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 27 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 29 3 3 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 31 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 32 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 34 4 4 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 156 36 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 2 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 4 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 5 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 6 patient patient NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 7 remains remain VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 8 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 9 until until IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 10 discharged discharge VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 11 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 12 distributed distribute VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 13 uniformly uniformly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 14 amongst amongst IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 16 14-day 14-day CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 17 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 18 span span NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 19 centered center VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 20 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 21 c c NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 22 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 23 shown show VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 24 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 25 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 27 5 5 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 157 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 2 exponential exponential JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 3 decay decay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 7 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 8 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 10 6 6 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 12 describes describe VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 13 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 14 joint joint JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 15 effect effect NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 16 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 18 NPI NPI NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 19 measures measure NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 20 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 21 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 22 23 23 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 23 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 24 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 26 1 1 LS cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 28 including include VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 29 traffic traffic NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 30 control control NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 31 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 32 homeisolation homeisolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 33 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 34 social social JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 35 distancing distancing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 36 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 37 disinfection disinfection NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 38 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 39 public public JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 40 use use NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 41 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 42 personal personal JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 43 protective protective JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 44 equipment equipment NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 45 etc etc FW cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 46 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 158 47 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 159 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 159 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 159 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 159 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 159 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 159 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 160 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 161 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 162 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 162 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 162 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 162 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 162 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 162 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 162 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 163 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 163 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 4 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 5 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 7 2 2 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 10 3 3 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 164 12 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 165 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 165 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 165 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 165 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 165 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 165 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 166 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 167 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 168 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 168 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 168 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 168 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 168 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 168 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 168 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 169 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 169 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 170 1 16 16 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 170 2 _SP cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 2 full full JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 3 profile profile NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 5 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 6 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 7 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 8 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 9 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 10 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 11 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 12 10 10 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 13 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 14 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 15 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 16 March March NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 17 11 11 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 18 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 19 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 20 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 21 used use VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 22 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 23 estimate estimate VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 24 all all DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 25 free free JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 26 parameters parameter NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 27 except except IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 28 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 29 c c NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 30 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 31 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 32 these these DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 33 parameters parameter NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 34 only only RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 35 concern concern VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 36 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 37 inflow inflow NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 38 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 39 infections infection NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 40 while while IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 41 c c NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 42 exclusively exclusively RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 43 determines determine VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 44 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 45 outflow outflow NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 171 46 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 2 dual dual JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 3 simulated simulated JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 4 annealing annealing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 5 procedure procedure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 6 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 7 performed perform VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 8 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 9 10,000 10,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 10 iterations iteration NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 11 using use VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 13 Scipy Scipy NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 14 package package NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 15 31 31 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 16 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 17 Python Python NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 172 18 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 1 Subsequently subsequently RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 2 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 3 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 4 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 5 other other JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 6 parameters parameter NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 7 fixed fix VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 8 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 9 c c NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 10 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 11 estimated estimate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 12 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 13 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 14 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 15 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 16 currently currently RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 17 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 18 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 19 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 20 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 21 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 22 using use VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 23 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 24 same same JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 25 dual dual JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 26 simulated simulated JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 27 annealing annealing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 28 procedure procedure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 173 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 174 1 All all DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 174 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 174 3 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 174 4 summarized summarize VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 174 5 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 174 6 Table Table NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 174 7 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 174 8 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 2 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 3 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 4 dependent dependent JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 5 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 6 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 7 compared compare VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 8 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 9 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 10 null null JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 11 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 12 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 13 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 14 constant constant JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 15 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 16 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 17 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 18 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 19 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 20 constant constant JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 21 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 22 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 23 isolation isolation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 24 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 25 confirmation confirmation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 175 26 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 2 cross cross NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 3 validation validation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 4 method method NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 5 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 6 applied apply VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 7 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 8 verify verify VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 9 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 10 improvement improvement NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 11 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 12 prediction prediction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 13 performance performance NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 14 through through IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 16 bootstrapping bootstrapping NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 17 procedure procedure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 18 described describe VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 19 below below IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 20 32 32 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 21 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 22 33 33 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 176 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 1 Data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 2 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 3 January January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 4 15 15 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 5 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 6 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 7 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 8 March March NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 9 11 11 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 11 2020 2020 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 12 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 13 56 56 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 14 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 15 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 16 total total NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 17 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 18 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 19 involved involve VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 20 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 21 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 22 analysis analysis NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 177 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 2 first first JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 3 28 28 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 4 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 5 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 6 regarded regard VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 7 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 9 training training NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 10 set set NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 11 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 13 later later RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 14 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 15 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 16 test test NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 17 set set VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 178 18 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 2 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 3 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 4 trained train VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 5 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 6 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 7 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 8 sampled sample VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 9 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 11 training training NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 12 set set NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 13 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 14 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 15 then then RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 16 tested test VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 18 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 19 sampled sample VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 20 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 21 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 22 test test NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 23 set set VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 179 24 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 1 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 2 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 3 way way NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 6 can can MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 7 avoid avoid VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 9 bias bias NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 10 due due IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 11 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 13 testing testing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 14 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 15 immediately immediately RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 16 follow follow VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 17 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 18 training training NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 19 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 180 20 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 1 To to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 2 ensure ensure VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 3 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 4 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 5 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 6 training training NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 7 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 9 samples sample NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 10 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 11 training training NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 12 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 13 vary vary VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 14 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 15 14 14 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 16 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 17 28 28 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 18 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 19 whereas whereas IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 20 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 21 samples sample NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 22 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 23 testing test VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 24 data data NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 25 span span NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 26 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 27 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 28 28 28 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 181 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 1 Each each DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 2 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 3 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 4 optimized optimize VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 5 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 6 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 7 training training NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 8 set set NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 9 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 182 10 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 1 Root root NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 2 mean mean JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 3 squared squared JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 4 error error NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 6 RMSE RMSE NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 8 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 9 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 10 predictions prediction NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 11 make make VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 12 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 13 each each DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 183 14 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 184 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 184 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 184 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 184 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 184 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 184 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 185 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 186 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 187 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 187 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 187 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 187 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 187 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 187 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 187 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 188 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 188 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 189 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 189 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 189 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 2 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 3 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 4 were be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 5 then then RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 6 calculated calculate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 7 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 9 testing testing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 10 set set NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 190 11 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 1 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 2 total total NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 3 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 4 120,000 120,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 5 sample sample NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 6 pairs pair NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 7 were be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 8 drawn draw VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 9 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 10 construct construct VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 11 distributions distribution NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 12 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 13 prediction prediction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 14 errors error NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 15 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 16 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 17 two two CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 18 models model NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 19 as as RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 20 well well RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 21 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 22 that that DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 23 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 24 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 25 difference difference NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 26 between between IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 27 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 28 two two CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 29 errors error NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 191 30 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 2 successful successful JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 3 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 4 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 5 judged judge VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 6 based base VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 7 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 9 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 10 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 192 11 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 2 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 3 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 4 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 5 defined define VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 6 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 7 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 8 average average JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 9 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 10 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 11 new new JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 12 infections infection NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 13 each each DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 14 patient patient NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 15 generates generate VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 193 16 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 1 When when WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 4 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 5 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 6 less less JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 7 than than IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 8 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 9 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 11 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 12 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 13 new new JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 14 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 15 decreases decrease VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 194 16 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 1 If if IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 4 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 5 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 6 greater great JJR cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 7 than than IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 8 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 9 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 11 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 12 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 13 new new JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 14 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 15 would would MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 16 increase increase VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 17 until until IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 18 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 19 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 20 pool pool NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 21 runs run VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 22 out out RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 23 34 34 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 195 24 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 1 At at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 3 beginning beginning NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 5 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 6 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 7 when when WRB cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 8 every every DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 9 individual individual NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 10 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 11 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 12 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 13 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 14 basic basic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 15 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 16 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 17 0 0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 18 can can MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 19 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 20 calculated calculate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 21 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 22 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 24 12 12 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 26 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 27 given give VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 28 that that IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 29 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 30 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 31 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 32 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 33 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 34 infectious infectious JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 196 35 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 1 With with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 3 current current JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 4 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 5 specifying specify VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 6 timedependent timedependent NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 8 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 9 50 50 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 10 % % NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 11 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 12 transmissibility transmissibility NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 13 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 15 average average JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 16 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 17 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 18 contact contact NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 19 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 20 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 21 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 22 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 23 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 24 cohort cohort NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 25 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 26 computed compute VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 27 respectively respectively RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 28 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 29 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 31 13 13 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 33 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 34 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 36 14 14 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 197 38 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 2 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 4 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 5 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 6 then then RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 7 computed compute VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 8 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 9 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 10 Equation equation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 12 17 17 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 198 14 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 1 Whether whether IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 3 average average JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 4 daily daily JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 5 production production NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 6 numbers number NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 7 during during IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 8 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 9 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 10 overload overload NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 11 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 12 below below IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 13 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 14 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 15 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 16 criterion criterion NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 17 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 18 successful successful JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 19 suppression suppression NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 199 20 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 2 strength strength NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 4 NPI NPI NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 6 quantified quantify VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 7 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 9 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 10 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 11 rate rate NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 12 calculated calculate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 13 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 14 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 15 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 16 0 0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 200 17 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 2 threshold threshold NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 3 level level NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 5 relative relative NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 6 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 7 linearly linearly RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 8 regressed regress VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 9 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 10 that that DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 11 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 13 log log NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 14 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 15 transformed transform VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 16 bed bed NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 17 per per IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 18 1,000 1,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 19 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 20 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 21 quantify quantify VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 22 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 23 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 24 importance importance NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 25 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 26 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 27 two two CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 28 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 201 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 202 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 202 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 202 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 202 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 202 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 202 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 203 24 _SP cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 2 datasets dataset NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 3 generated generate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 4 during during IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 5 and/or and/or CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 6 analysed analyse VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 7 during during IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 9 current current JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 10 study study NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 11 as as RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 12 well well RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 13 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 14 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 15 code code NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 16 used use VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 17 are be VBP cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 18 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 19 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 20 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 21 corresponding correspond VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 22 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 23 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 24 reasonable reasonable JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 25 request request NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 26 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 204 27 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 205 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 205 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 205 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 205 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 205 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 205 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 206 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 207 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 208 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 208 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 208 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 208 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 208 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 208 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 208 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 209 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 209 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 210 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 210 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 210 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 2 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 3 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 4 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 5 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 6 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 7 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 8 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 9 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 11 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 12 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 13 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 14 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 15 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 16 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 17 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 211 19 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 212 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 213 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 213 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 213 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 213 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 213 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 213 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 213 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 214 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 214 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 215 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 215 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 215 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 216 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 216 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 216 3 _SP cord-326804-5psqro9d 216 4 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 217 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 217 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 217 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 217 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 217 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 217 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 218 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 219 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 220 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 220 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 220 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 220 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 220 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 220 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 220 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 220 8 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 221 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 221 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 221 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 221 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 221 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 221 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 222 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 223 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 224 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 224 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 224 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 224 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 224 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 224 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 224 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 225 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 225 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 226 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 226 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 226 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 227 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 227 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 1 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 2 Figure Figure NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 3 3A&B&C 3A&B&C NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 5 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 6 increased increase VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 7 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 8 0.0 0.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 9 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 10 0.5 0.5 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 12 step=0.01 step=0.01 VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 14 ; ; : cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 15 lockdown lockdown NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 16 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 17 increased increase VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 18 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 19 -8 -8 NNPS cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 20 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 21 22 22 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 22 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 24 step step NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 25 = = SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 26 1 1 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 27 day day NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 28 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 29 Jan. January NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 228 31 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 229 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 229 2 other other JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 229 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 229 4 were be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 229 5 kept keep VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 229 6 fixed fix VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 229 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 1 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 2 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 3 4A&B&D&E 4a&b&d&e NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 5 relative relative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 6 increased increase VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 7 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 8 0.0 0.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 9 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 10 0.5 0.5 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 12 step=0.01 step=0.01 VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 14 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 15 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 16 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 17 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 18 per per IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 19 1,000 1,000 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 20 population population NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 21 increased increase VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 22 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 23 2.0 2.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 24 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 25 12.0 12.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 27 step=0.2 step=0.2 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 230 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 231 1 Lockdown lockdown NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 231 2 onsets onset NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 231 3 were be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 231 4 +0 +0 JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 231 5 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 231 6 +7 +7 NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 231 7 respectively respectively RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 231 8 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 1 In in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 2 Figure figure NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 3 4C&F 4c&f CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 4 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 5 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 6 duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 7 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 8 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 9 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 10 defined define VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 11 as as IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 12 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 13 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 14 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 15 days day NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 16 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 17 Jan Jan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 18 10 10 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 19 until until IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 20 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 21 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 22 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 23 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 24 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 25 went go VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 26 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 27 0 0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 28 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 232 29 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 233 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 233 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 233 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 233 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 233 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 233 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 234 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 235 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 236 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 236 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 236 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 236 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 236 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 236 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 236 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 237 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 237 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 238 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 238 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 238 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 238 4 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 238 5 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 238 6 Figure Figure NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 238 7 S1 S1 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 238 8 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 2 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 3 confirmed confirm VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 4 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 6 adjusted adjust VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 7 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 8 reflect reflect VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 9 updated update VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 10 diagnosis diagnosis NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 11 criteria criterion NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 12 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 239 13 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 240 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 240 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 240 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 240 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 240 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 240 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 241 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 242 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 243 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 243 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 243 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 243 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 243 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 243 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 243 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 244 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 244 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 245 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 245 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 245 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 246 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 246 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 246 3 A a NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 247 1 B b NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 247 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 248 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 248 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 248 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 248 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 248 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 248 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 249 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 250 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 251 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 251 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 251 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 251 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 251 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 251 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 251 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 252 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 252 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 253 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 253 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 253 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 254 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 254 2 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 254 3 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 255 1 CC CC NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 255 2 - - : cord-326804-5psqro9d 255 3 BY by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 255 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 255 5 International international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 255 6 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 2 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 3 made make VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 4 available available JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 5 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 6 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 7 author author NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 8 / / SYM cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 9 funder funder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 10 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 11 who who WP cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 12 has have VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 13 granted grant VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 15 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 16 license license NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 17 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 18 display display VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 19 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 20 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 256 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 1 is be VBZ cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 2 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 4 which which WDT cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 5 was be VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 6 not not RB cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 7 peer peer NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 8 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 9 reviewed review VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 257 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 258 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 258 2 copyright copyright NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 258 3 holder holder NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 258 4 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 258 5 this this DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 258 6 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 258 7 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 259 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04 UH cord-326804-5psqro9d 259 2 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 260 1 16.20067611 16.20067611 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 260 2 doi doi NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 260 3 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 261 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 261 2 preprint preprint NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 261 3 _SP cord-326804-5psqro9d 261 4 WHO WHO NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 261 5 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 1 Report report NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 2 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 3 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 4 WHO WHO NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 5 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 6 China China NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 7 Joint Joint NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 8 Mission Mission NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 9 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 10 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 11 Disease Disease NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 12 Estimating estimate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 13 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 14 potential potential JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 15 total total JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 16 number number NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 17 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 18 novel novel JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 19 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 20 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 21 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 22 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 23 City City NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 24 Nowcasting Nowcasting NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 25 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 26 forecasting forecast VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 27 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 28 potential potential JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 29 domestic domestic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 30 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 31 international international JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 32 spread spread NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 33 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 34 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 35 2019-nCoV 2019-ncov CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 36 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 37 originating originate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 38 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 39 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 40 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 41 China China NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 42 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 43 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 44 modelling modelling NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 45 study study NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 46 Clinical clinical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 47 course course NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 48 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 49 risk risk NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 50 factors factor NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 51 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 52 mortality mortality NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 53 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 54 adult adult NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 55 inpatients inpatient NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 56 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 57 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 58 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 59 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 60 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 61 China China NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 62 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 63 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 64 retrospective retrospective JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 65 cohort cohort NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 66 study study NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 67 Modified modify VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 68 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 69 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 70 AI AI NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 71 prediction prediction NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 72 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 73 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 74 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 75 trend trend NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 76 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 77 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 78 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 79 China China NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 80 under under IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 81 public public JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 82 health health NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 83 interventions intervention NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 84 Effect Effect NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 85 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 86 non non JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 87 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 88 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 89 interventions intervention NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 90 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 91 containing contain VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 92 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 93 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 94 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 95 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 96 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 97 observational observational JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 98 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 99 modelling modelling NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 262 100 study study NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 1 An an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 2 updated update VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 3 estimation estimation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 5 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 6 risk risk NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 7 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 8 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 9 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 11 novel novel JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 12 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 14 2019-nCov 2019-ncov CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 263 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 2 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 3 delay delay NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 4 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 5 system system NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 6 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 7 external external JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 8 source source NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 9 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 11 local local JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 12 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 13 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 14 2019-nCoV 2019-ncov CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 15 Impact Impact NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 16 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 17 non non JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 18 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 19 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 20 interventions intervention NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 22 NPIs NPIs NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 24 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 25 reduce reduce VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 26 COVID19 COVID19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 27 mortality mortality NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 28 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 29 healthcare healthcare NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 30 demand demand NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 31 Community Community NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 32 Mitigation Mitigation NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 33 Guidelines Guidelines NNPS cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 34 to to TO cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 35 Prevent Prevent NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 36 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 37 Influenza Influenza NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 38 -United -unite VBD cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 39 States States NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 40 Clinical Clinical NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 41 Characteristics Characteristics NNPS cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 42 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 43 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 44 Disease Disease NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 45 2019 2019 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 46 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 47 China China NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 48 Clinical clinical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 49 predictors predictor NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 50 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 51 mortality mortality NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 52 due due IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 53 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 54 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 55 based base VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 56 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 57 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 58 analysis analysis NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 59 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 60 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 61 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 62 150 150 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 63 patients patient NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 64 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 65 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 66 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 67 China China NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 68 Estimating estimate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 69 clinical clinical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 70 severity severity NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 71 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 72 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 73 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 74 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 75 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 76 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 77 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 78 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 79 , , , cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 80 China China NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 81 Potential Potential NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 82 association association NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 83 between between IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 84 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 85 mortality mortality NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 86 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 87 health health NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 88 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 89 care care NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 90 resource resource NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 91 availability availability NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 92 Herd Herd NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 93 Immunity Immunity NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 94 " " '' cord-326804-5psqro9d 264 95 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 2 Rough rough JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 3 Guide Guide NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 4 Duration duration NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 5 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 6 Antibody Antibody NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 7 Responses Responses NNPS cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 8 after after IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 9 Severe severe JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 10 Acute acute JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 11 Respiratory Respiratory NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 12 Syndrome Syndrome NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 13 Longitudinal longitudinal JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 14 profiles profile NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 15 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 16 immunoglobulin immunoglobulin NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 17 G g NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 18 antibodies antibody NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 19 against against IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 20 severe severe JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 21 acute acute JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 22 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 23 syndrome syndrome NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 24 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 25 components component NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 26 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 27 neutralizing neutralize VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 28 activities activity NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 29 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 30 recovered recover VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 31 patients patient NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 32 Lack Lack NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 33 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 34 Peripheral Peripheral NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 35 Memory Memory NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 36 B B NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 37 Cell cell NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 38 Responses response NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 39 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 40 Recovered recover VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 41 Patients Patients NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 42 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 43 Severe severe JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 44 Acute acute JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 45 Respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 46 Syndrome syndrome NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 265 47 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 266 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 266 2 Six six CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 266 3 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 266 4 Year year NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 266 5 Follow follow NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 266 6 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 266 7 Up up NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 266 8 Study study NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 1 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 2 effect effect NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 3 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 4 travel travel NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 5 restrictions restriction NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 6 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 7 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 8 spread spread NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 9 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 10 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 11 2019 2019 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 12 novel novel NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 13 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 15 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 17 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 18 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 19 beds bed NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 20 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 21 discharge discharge NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 22 rates rate NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 267 23 . . . cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 1 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 2 Health Health NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 3 at at IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 4 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 5 Glance Glance NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 6 Covert covert JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 7 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 8 infections infection NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 9 could could MD cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 10 be be VB cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 11 seeding seed VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 12 new new JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 268 13 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 2 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 3 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 4 within within IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 5 a a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 6 family family NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 7 cluster cluster NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 8 by by IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 9 presymptomatic presymptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 10 infectors infector NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 11 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 269 12 China China NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 1 A a DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 2 familial familial JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 3 cluster cluster NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 4 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 5 infection infection NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 6 associated associate VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 7 with with IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 8 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 9 2019 2019 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 10 novel novel NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 11 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 12 indicating indicate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 13 potential potential JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 14 person person NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 15 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 16 to to IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 17 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 18 person person NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 19 transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 20 during during IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 21 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 22 incubation incubation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 23 period period NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 24 Transmission transmission NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 25 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 26 2019-nCoV 2019-ncov CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 27 Infection infection NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 28 from from IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 29 an an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 30 Asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 31 Contact Contact NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 32 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 33 Germany Germany NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 34 Presumed presume VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 35 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 36 Carrier Carrier NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 37 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 38 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 39 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 40 Estimating estimate VBG cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 41 the the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 42 generation generation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 43 interval interval NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 44 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 45 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 46 based base VBN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 47 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 48 symptom symptom NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 49 onset onset NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 50 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 51 Viral Viral NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 52 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 53 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 54 mild mild JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 55 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 56 severe severe JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 57 cases case NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 58 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 59 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 60 SciPy SciPy NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 61 1.0 1.0 CD cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 62 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 63 fundamental fundamental JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 64 algorithms algorithm NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 65 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 66 scientific scientific JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 67 computing computing NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 68 in in IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 69 Python Python NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 70 Consistent Consistent NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 71 cross cross JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 72 - - JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 73 validatory validatory JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 74 model model NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 75 - - HYPH cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 76 selection selection NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 77 for for IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 78 dependent dependent JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 79 data datum NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 80 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 81 hvblock hvblock NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 82 cross cross NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 83 - - NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 84 validation validation JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 85 Evaluating Evaluating NNP cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 86 time time NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 87 series series NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 88 forecasting forecasting NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 89 models model NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 270 90 : : : cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 1 An an DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 2 empirical empirical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 3 study study NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 4 on on IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 5 performance performance NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 6 estimation estimation NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 7 methods method NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 8 The the DT cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 9 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 10 theory theory NN cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 11 of of IN cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 12 infectious infectious JJ cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 13 diseases disease NNS cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 14 and and CC cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 15 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-326804-5psqro9d 271 16 applications application NNS