id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-347204-cafr7f38	Yuan, Zheming	Modelling the effects of Wuhan’s lockdown during COVID-19, China	2020-07-01		.txt	text/plain	3935	242	62	FINDINGS: Delaying the start date of control measures by only 3 days would have increased the estimated 30 699 confirmed cases of COVID-19 by 1 March 2020 in regions outside Wuhan by 34.6% (to 41 330 people). We present a simple model based on online data on population movements and confirmed numbers of people infected to quantify the consequences of the control measures in Wuhan on the ongoing spread of COVID-19 across mainland China. To determine the number of people represented by the migration index per unit, we used data on population movements during the 2019 Spring Festival travel rush in China (over 40 days from 21 January 2019 to 1 March 2019). We therefore concluded that the first key factor (x 1 ) affecting the final cumulative number of confirmed cases in cities outside Wuhan on 1 March 2020 was the sum of people travelling out of Wuhan during 20-26 January 2020 (there were few population movements after 27 January 2020 because of the control measures).	./cache/cord-347204-cafr7f38.txt	./txt/cord-347204-cafr7f38.txt