id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-341135-gmi1ewc2	Kucharski, Adam J	Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study	2020-02-02		.txt	text/plain	3459	170	47	Methods: We combined a stochastic transmission model with data on cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated in Wuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January and February 2020. We estimate how transmission has varied over time, identify a decline in the reproduction number in late January to near 1, coinciding with the introduction of large scale control measures, and show the potential implications of estimated transmission for outbreak risk new locations. Based on the median reproduction number estimated during January before travel restrictions were introduced, we estimated that a single introduction of 2019-nCoV with SARS-like or MERS-like individual-level variation in transmission would have a 20-28% probability of causing a large outbreak ( Figure 3A ). Combining a mathematical model with multiple datasets, we found that the median daily reproduction number, R t , of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan likely varied between 1.6-2.6 in January 2020 prior to travel restrictions being introduced.	./cache/cord-341135-gmi1ewc2.txt	./txt/cord-341135-gmi1ewc2.txt