id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-320953-1st77mvh	Overton, ChristopherE.	Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example	2020-07-04		.txt	text/plain	15721	734	48	These include interpreting symptom progression and fatality ratios with delay distributions and right-censoring, exacerbated by exponential growth in cases leading to the majority of case data being on recently infected individuals; lack of clarity and consistency in denominators; inconsistency of case definitions over time and the eventual impact of interventions and changes to behaviour on transmission dynamics. We then develop a household-based contact tracing model, with which we investigate the extinction probability under weaker isolation policies paired with contact tracing, thus shedding light on possible combinations of interventions that allow us to feasibly manage the infection while minimising the social impact of control policies. Applying household isolation at 65% adherence ( 0.65 W α = ) manages to reduce the spread of infection, but appears insufficient in this model and with baseline parameters for controlling the outbreak in the long-term, unless other intervention strategies that reduce the global transmission (increasing ε) are adopted at the same time.	./cache/cord-320953-1st77mvh.txt	./txt/cord-320953-1st77mvh.txt