id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-314273-xhnv5cje	Lytras, Theodore	Estimating the ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China: implications for management of the global outbreak	2020-03-26		.txt	text/plain	2133	118	53	We sought to estimate the ascertainment ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China, using a modified Bayesian SEIR model with publicly reported case data. With the outbreak having already turned into the latest global pandemic, one of the key unknowns that will determine its public health impact is the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), i.e. the number of deaths as a proportion of all persons infected with the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. The ascertainment rate was estimated at just 0.465% (95% CrI 0.464-0.466%), meaning that for every confirmed case in Wuhan there had been approximately 200 SARS-CoV-2 infections that were not detected. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in (which was not certified by peer review) preprint Assuming a variable contact rate over the study period, the R0 estimate would be as high as 5.33 until the Wuhan lockdown, falling to 2.09 until 10 February then up again to 3.83, with an ascertainment rate of 0.48%.	./cache/cord-314273-xhnv5cje.txt	./txt/cord-314273-xhnv5cje.txt