id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-258748-nzynerfu	Li, Jinghua	Estimation of the epidemic properties of the 2019 novel coronavirus: A mathematical modeling study	2020-02-20		.txt	text/plain	3329	142	48	Methods We conducted a mathematical modeling study using five independent methods to assess the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19, using data on confirmed cases obtained from the China National Health Commission for the period 10th January to 8th February. In this study we used data from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China 12 (NHC) for the period from the 10 th January to the 8 th February to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 using five mathematical modeling methods conducted independently. We used these modeling methods to estimate the basic reproduction number both before and after the closure of Wuhan city, and across the whole time period of the epidemic. For example, a previous paper using the assumption of exponential growth found a value of " of 2.68 (95% Credible interval 2.47 -2.86) 5 using an SEIR model with Metropolis-Hastings MCMC estimates of uncertainty, but our modeling has shown that this method likely underestimated the basic reproduction number during the pre-closure period.	./cache/cord-258748-nzynerfu.txt	./txt/cord-258748-nzynerfu.txt