id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-342012-1w3x0g42	Wu, Joseph T.	Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China	2020-03-19		.txt	text/plain	5328	298	55	For a completely novel pathogen, especially one with a high (say, >2) basic reproductive number (the expected number of secondary cases generated by a primary case in a completely susceptible population) relative to other recently emergent and seasonal directly transmissible respiratory pathogens 4 , assuming homogeneous mixing and mass action dynamics, the majority of the population will be infected eventually unless drastic public health interventions are applied over prolonged periods and/or vaccines become available sufficiently quickly. We therefore extended our previously published transmission dynamics model 4 , updated with real-time input data and enriched with additional new data sources, to infer a preliminary set of clinical severity estimates that could guide clinical and public health decision-making as the epidemic continues to spread globally. Given that we have parameterized the model using death rates inferred from projected case numbers (from traveler data) and observed death numbers in Wuhan, the precise fatality risk estimates may not be generalizable to those outside the original epicenter, especially during subsequent phases of the epidemic.	./cache/cord-342012-1w3x0g42.txt	./txt/cord-342012-1w3x0g42.txt