id sid tid token lemma pos cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 1 1 key key NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 1 2 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 1 cord-326631 cord-326631 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 2 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 3 7gd3hjc3 7gd3hjc3 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 4 authors author NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 5 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 6 Ma Ma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 8 Junling Junling NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 9 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 10 Earn earn VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 12 David David NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 13 J. J. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 14 D. D. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 15 title title NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 2 16 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 1 Generality generality NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 2 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 4 Final Final NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 5 Size Size NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 6 Formula Formula NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 7 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 8 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 9 Epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 11 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 12 Newly newly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 13 Invading invade VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 14 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 15 Disease Disease NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 16 date date NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 17 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 18 2006 2006 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 19 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 20 04 04 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 21 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 22 08 08 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 23 journal journal NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 3 24 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 1 Bull Bull NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 2 Math Math NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 3 Biol Biol NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 4 DOI DOI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 5 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 6 10.1007 10.1007 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 7 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 8 s11538 s11538 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 9 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 10 005 005 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 11 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 12 9047 9047 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 13 - - SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 14 7 7 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 15 sha sha NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 16 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 17 e4dc4fb77ff0a8a10cf07bf0cceb5ad06e722d0c e4dc4fb77ff0a8a10cf07bf0cceb5ad06e722d0c NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 18 doc_id doc_id CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 19 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 20 326631 326631 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 21 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 22 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 4 23 7gd3hjc3 7gd3hjc3 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 2 well well RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 3 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 4 known know VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 5 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 6 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 8 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 9 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 11 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 13 was be VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 14 published publish VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 15 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 16 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 17 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 18 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 19 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 20 1927 1927 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 5 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 1 Their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 2 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 3 was be VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 4 based base VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 5 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 6 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 7 simple simple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 8 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 9 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 10 infected infected JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 11 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 12 recovered recovered JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 14 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 16 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 17 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 18 assumes assume VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 19 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 20 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 21 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 22 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 6 23 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 1 More More JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 2 recent recent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 3 analyses analysis NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 4 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 5 established establish VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 6 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 8 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 9 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 10 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 11 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 12 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 13 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 14 regardless regardless RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 17 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 19 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 20 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 21 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 22 but but CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 23 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 24 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 25 fails fail VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 26 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 27 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 28 correct correct JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 29 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 30 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 31 presence presence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 32 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 33 certain certain JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 34 kinds kind NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 35 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 36 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 37 mixing mixing NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 39 e.g. e.g. RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 40 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 41 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 42 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 43 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 44 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 45 core core NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 46 group group NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 47 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 48 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 49 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 50 sexually sexually RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 51 transmitted transmit VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 52 diseases disease NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 7 54 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 2 review review VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 3 previous previous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 4 work work NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 5 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 6 establish establish VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 7 more more JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 8 general general JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 9 conditions condition NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 10 under under IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 11 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 12 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 13 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 14 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 15 's 's POS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 16 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 17 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 18 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 8 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 2 show show VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 3 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 5 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 6 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 7 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 9 unchanged unchanged JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 10 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 11 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 12 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 13 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 14 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 15 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 17 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 18 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 19 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 20 distinct distinct JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 21 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 22 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 23 and/or and/or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 24 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 25 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 26 during during IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 27 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 28 infectives infective NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 29 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 30 isolated isolate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 32 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 33 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 34 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 35 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 36 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 37 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 38 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 39 drawn draw VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 40 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 41 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 42 integrable integrable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 43 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 9 45 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 2 also also RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 3 consider consider VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 5 possibility possibility NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 6 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 8 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 9 rates rate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 12 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 13 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 14 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 15 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 16 — — : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 17 allowing allow VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 19 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 20 particular particular JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 21 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 22 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 23 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 24 existence existence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 25 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 26 super super JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 27 - - NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 28 spreaders spreader NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 29 — — : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 30 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 31 prove prove VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 32 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 33 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 34 potential potential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 35 complexity complexity NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 36 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 37 no no DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 38 impact impact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 39 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 40 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 41 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 42 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 43 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 10 44 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 1 Finally finally RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 4 show show VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 5 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 7 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 8 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 9 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 10 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 11 unchanged unchanged JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 12 even even RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 13 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 14 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 15 general general JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 16 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 17 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 18 spatial spatial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 19 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 20 structures structure NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 11 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 2 conclude conclude VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 3 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 4 whenever whenever WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 5 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 6 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 7 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 8 pathogen pathogen NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 9 emerges emerge VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 11 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 12 estimate estimate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 15 expected expect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 16 magnitude magnitude NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 17 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 20 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 21 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 22 made make VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 23 as as RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 24 soon soon RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 25 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 26 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 27 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 28 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 29 ℝ(0 ℝ(0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 31 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 32 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 33 approximated approximate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 34 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 35 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 36 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 37 estimate estimate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 38 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 39 likely likely JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 40 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 41 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 42 improved improve VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 43 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 44 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 45 more more RBR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 46 accurate accurate JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 47 estimates estimate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 48 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 49 ℝ(0 ℝ(0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 50 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 51 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 52 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 53 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 54 knowledge knowledge NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 55 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 56 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 57 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 58 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 59 details detail NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 12 60 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 1 Whenever whenever WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 2 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 3 serious serious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 4 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 5 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 6 emerges emerge VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 7 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 8 re re NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 9 - - NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 10 emerges emerge VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 11 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 12 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 13 human human JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 14 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 16 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 17 matter matter NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 19 immediate immediate JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 20 interest interest NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 21 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 22 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 23 likely likely JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 24 magnitude magnitude NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 25 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 26 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 27 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 13 28 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 3 often often RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 4 called call VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 6 expected expect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 7 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 8 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 13 Bailey Bailey NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 15 1975 1975 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 16 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 17 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 18 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 19 Watsons Watsons NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 21 1980 1980 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 22 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 23 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 24 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 25 May May NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 26 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 27 1991 1991 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 28 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 29 Andersson Andersson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 30 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 31 Britton Britton NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 32 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 33 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 34 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 35 Diekmann Diekmann NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 36 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 37 Heesterbeek Heesterbeek NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 38 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 39 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 41 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 42 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 43 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 44 denote denote VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 14 45 Z. Z. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 1 Of of RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 2 course course RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 4 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 6 emergent emergent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 7 pathogen pathogen NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 8 becomes become VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 9 endemic endemic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 10 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 12 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 13 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 14 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 15 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 16 never never RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 17 really really RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 18 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 19 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 20 " " `` cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 21 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 22 " " '' cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 23 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 25 but but CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 26 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 27 that that DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 28 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 29 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 30 matter matter NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 31 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 32 issue issue NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 33 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 34 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 35 likely likely JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 36 magnitude magnitude NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 37 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 38 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 39 first first JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 40 major major JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 41 wave wave NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 42 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 43 cases case NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 15 44 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 1 To to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 3 knowledge knowledge NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 5 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 6 formal formal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 8 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 9 argument argument NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 10 leading lead VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 11 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 12 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 13 estimate estimate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 14 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 15 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 17 's 's POS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 18 expected expect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 19 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 20 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 21 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 22 was be VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 23 first first RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 24 published publish VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 25 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 26 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 27 landmark landmark JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 28 1927 1927 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 29 paper paper NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 30 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 31 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 32 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 33 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 35 1927 1927 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 16 37 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 2 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 3 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 4 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 5 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 6 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 8 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 9 obtained obtain VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 10 [ [ -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 11 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 17 12 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 2 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 4 below below IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 6 depends depend VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 7 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 8 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 10 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 11 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 12 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 14 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 15 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 18 expected expect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 19 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 20 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 21 secondary secondary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 22 cases case NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 23 caused cause VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 24 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 25 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 26 typical typical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 27 primary primary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 28 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 29 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 30 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 31 fully fully RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 32 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 33 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 18 35 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 1 However however RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 3 without without IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 4 further further JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 5 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 7 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 9 unclear unclear JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 10 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 11 what what WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 12 extent extent NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 13 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 14 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 15 depends depend VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 16 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 18 particular particular JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 19 assumptions assumption NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 20 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 21 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 22 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 23 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 24 made make VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 25 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 26 constructing construct VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 27 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 28 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 29 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 30 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 31 hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 32 whether whether IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 33 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 34 bears bear VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 35 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 36 strong strong JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 37 relationship relationship NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 38 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 39 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 40 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 41 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 42 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 43 realistic realistic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 44 situations situation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 19 45 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 1 One one CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 2 implicit implicit JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 3 assumption assumption NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 6 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 8 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 10 1927 1927 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 12 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 14 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 15 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 16 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 17 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 18 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 19 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 20 20 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 1 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 2 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 3 Watsons Watsons NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 5 1980 1980 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 7 showed show VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 8 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 10 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 11 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 12 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 13 remains remain VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 14 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 15 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 16 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 17 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 18 follow follow VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 19 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 20 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 21 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 21 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 2 Section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 3 1.3 1.3 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 5 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 6 book book NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 8 Diekmann Diekmann NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 9 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 10 Heesterbeek Heesterbeek NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 12 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 14 generalized generalize VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 15 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 16 statement statement NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 17 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 18 cover cover VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 19 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 20 arbitrary arbitrary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 21 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 22 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 23 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 24 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 22 25 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 1 Another another DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 2 key key JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 3 assumption assumption NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 6 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 8 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 10 1927 1927 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 12 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 14 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 16 host host NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 17 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 18 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 19 homogeneously homogeneously RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 20 mixed mixed JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 23 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 3 well well RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 4 known know VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 5 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 6 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 7 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 8 assumption assumption NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 9 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 10 dropped drop VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 11 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 13 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 14 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 15 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 16 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 17 necessarily necessarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 18 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 19 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 20 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 21 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 22 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 23 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 24 24 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 2 particular particular JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 5 existence existence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 7 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 8 core core NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 9 group group NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 11 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 12 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 13 sexually sexually RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 14 transmitted transmit VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 15 diseases disease NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 17 gives give VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 18 rise rise NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 19 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 20 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 21 different different JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 22 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 23 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 24 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 25 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 26 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 28 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 29 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 30 May May NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 31 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 32 1991 1991 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 33 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 34 Diekmann Diekmann NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 35 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 36 Heesterbeek Heesterbeek NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 37 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 38 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 25 40 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 2 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 3 paper paper NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 6 explore explore VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 8 generality generality NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 11 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 12 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 13 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 14 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 15 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 16 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 17 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 19 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 26 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 2 begin begin VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 3 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 4 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 5 pedagogical pedagogical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 6 review review NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 7 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 9 main main JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 10 results result NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 11 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 12 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 13 been be VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 14 obtained obtain VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 15 previously previously RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 17 adding add VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 18 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 19 structure structure NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 20 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 21 steps step NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 27 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 2 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 3 proceed proceed VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 4 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 5 generalize generalize VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 6 these these DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 7 results result NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 8 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 9 three three CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 10 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 11 directions direction NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 13 showing show VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 14 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 16 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 17 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 18 remains remain VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 28 19 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 29 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 29 2 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 29 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 1 regardless regardless RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 2 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 4 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 5 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 6 distinct distinct JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 7 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 8 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 9 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 11 ii ii LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 13 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 15 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 16 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 17 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 18 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 19 itself -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 20 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 21 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 22 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 24 iii iii NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 26 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 27 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 28 large large JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 29 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 30 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 31 spatially spatially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 32 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 33 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 34 structures structure NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 30 35 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 2 conclude conclude VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 3 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 5 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 6 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 7 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 8 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 10 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 12 applies apply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 13 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 14 great great JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 15 generality generality NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 17 making make VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 19 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 20 extremely extremely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 21 useful useful JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 22 relationship relationship NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 23 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 24 practice practice NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 31 25 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 2 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 3 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 4 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 6 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 8 May May NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 9 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 10 1991 1991 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 11 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 12 Diekmann Diekmann NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 13 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 14 Heesterbeek Heesterbeek NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 16 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 17 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 18 Brauer Brauer NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 19 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 20 Castillo Castillo NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 21 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 22 Chavez Chavez NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 23 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 24 2001 2001 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 26 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 27 represented represent VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 28 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 29 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 30 system system NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 31 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 32 three three CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 33 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 34 differential differential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 35 equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 36 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 37 Here here RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 38 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 39 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 40 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 41 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 42 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 43 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 44 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 45 denote denote VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 46 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 47 proportions proportion NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 48 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 49 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 50 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 51 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 52 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 53 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 54 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 55 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 56 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 57 recovered recovered JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 58 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 59 respectively respectively RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 32 60 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 1 Recovered recover VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 2 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 3 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 4 assumed assume VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 5 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 6 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 7 immune immune JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 8 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 9 reinfection reinfection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 33 10 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 1 Since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 2 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 3 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 4 I i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 5 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 6 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 7 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 8 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 9 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 10 one one CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 11 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 13 three three CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 14 equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 15 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 16 redundant redundant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 34 17 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 2 two two CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 4 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 6 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 7 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 9 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 10 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 12 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 14 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 16 recovery recovery NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 17 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 19 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 35 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 2 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 3 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 4 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 5 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 6 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 7 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 8 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 9 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 10 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 36 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 37 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 37 2 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 37 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 37 4 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 37 5 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 37 6 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 37 7 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 37 8 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 38 1 βT. βT. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 2 proportion proportion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 3 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 5 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 6 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 7 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 8 infected infect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 9 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 10 increase increase VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 12 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 13 hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 14 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 16 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 17 occur occur VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 19 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 20 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 21 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 22 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 23 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 24 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 25 > > SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 26 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 39 27 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 40 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 40 2 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 40 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 2 1 1 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 5 recruitment recruitment NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 7 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 8 susceptibles susceptible NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 9 through through IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 10 birth birth NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 11 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 12 immigration immigration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 14 ignored ignore VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 16 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 17 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 18 loss loss NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 19 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 20 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 21 through through IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 22 mortality mortality NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 23 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 24 emmigration emmigration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 41 25 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 2 approximation approximation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 3 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 4 reasonable reasonable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 5 provided provide VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 7 timescale timescale NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 8 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 11 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 12 much much RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 13 shorter short JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 14 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 16 timescale timescale NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 17 over over IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 18 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 19 demographic demographic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 20 turnover turnover NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 21 occurs occur VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 42 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 1 No no DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 2 recruitment recruitment NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 3 ensures ensure VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 4 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 6 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 7 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 8 eventually eventually RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 9 burn burn VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 10 out out RP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 12 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 14 I(∞ I(∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 16 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 17 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 43 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 1 To to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 2 see see VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 3 formally formally RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 4 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 6 must must MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 7 have have VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 8 I(∞ I(∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 10 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 11 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 13 note note VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 14 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 16 positive positive JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 17 orthant orthant NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 18 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 19 invariant invariant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 20 so so IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 21 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 22 solutions solution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 23 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 24 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 44 25 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 2 1 1 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 4 lie lie VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 5 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 7 non non JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 8 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 9 negative negative JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 11 bounded bound VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 12 set set NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 13 defined define VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 14 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 15 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 17 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 19 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 20 ≥ ≥ CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 21 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 22 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 45 23 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 46 1 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 47 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 47 2 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 47 3 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 47 4 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 47 5 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 47 6 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 48 1 Observing observe VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 48 2 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 48 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 48 4 see see VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 48 5 that that DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 48 6 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 49 1 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 50 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 50 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 50 3 decreasing decrease VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 50 4 whenever whenever WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 50 5 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 50 6 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 50 7 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 50 8 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 51 1 However however RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 51 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 51 3 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 51 4 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 3 bounded bound VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 4 below below IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 5 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 6 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 7 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 8 hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 10 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 11 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 12 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 52 13 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 53 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 53 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 53 3 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 53 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 2 2 2 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 4 implies imply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 5 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 6 d d NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 7 dt dt NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 9 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 10 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 11 I i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 14 bounded bound VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 15 because because IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 16 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 17 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 18 bounded bound VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 54 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 1 Hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 2 lim lim NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 3 t→∞ t→∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 4 d d NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 5 dt dt NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 7 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 8 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 9 I i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 11 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 12 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 14 so so RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 15 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 55 16 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 56 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 56 2 2 2 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 56 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 56 4 yields yield NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 56 5 I(∞ I(∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 56 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 56 7 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 56 8 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 56 9 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 2 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 4 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 6 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 7 sufficiently sufficiently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 8 simple simple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 9 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 10 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 11 exact exact JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 12 solution solution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 13 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 14 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 15 obtained obtain VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 16 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 18 phase phase NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 19 portrait portrait NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 57 20 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 1 Forming form VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 2 dI dI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 3 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 4 dS ds NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 5 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 6 integrating integrate VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 7 yields yield NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 8 An an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 10 ends end VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 11 when when WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 12 no no DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 13 infectives infective NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 14 remain remain VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 58 15 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 1 Consequently consequently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 4 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 5 find find VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 7 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 8 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 9 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 10 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 11 setting set VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 12 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 13 = = VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 59 14 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 60 1 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 60 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 60 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 2 3 3 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 5 solving solve VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 6 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 7 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 8 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 9 S(0 s(0 NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 61 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 62 1 − − NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 62 2 S. S. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 2 yields yield VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 4 implicit implicit JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 5 relation relation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 7 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 8 explicit explicit JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 9 form form NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 10 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 11 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 12 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 13 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 14 A A NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 63 16 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 2 general general JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 3 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 5 4 4 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 7 applies apply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 8 regardless regardless RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 11 proportions proportion NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 14 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 15 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 16 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 17 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 18 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 19 infective infective JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 20 initially initially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 64 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 1 A a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 2 less less JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 3 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 4 fully fully RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 5 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 6 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 7 must must MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 8 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 9 taken take VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 10 into into IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 11 account account NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 12 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 13 some some DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 14 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 15 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 16 been be VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 17 vaccinated vaccinate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 18 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 19 retain retain VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 20 immunity immunity NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 21 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 22 previous previous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 23 exposures exposure NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 65 24 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 1 However however RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 3 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 5 important important JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 6 special special JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 7 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 8 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 9 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 10 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 11 pathogen pathogen NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 12 enters enter VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 13 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 14 fully fully RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 15 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 16 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 17 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 18 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 19 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 66 20 both both DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 67 1 I(0 I(0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 67 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 67 3 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 67 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 67 5 S(0 S(0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 67 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 67 7 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 67 8 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 67 9 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 3 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 4 I(0 I(0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 6 → → SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 7 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 9 S(0 S(0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 11 → → SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 12 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 14 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 15 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 17 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 18 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 19 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 20 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 68 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 2 practical practical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 3 utility utility NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 6 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 7 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 8 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 9 would would MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 10 appear appear VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 11 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 12 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 13 limited limit VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 14 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 16 fact fact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 17 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 19 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 20 derived derive VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 21 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 22 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 23 overly overly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 24 simplistic simplistic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 25 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 26 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 27 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 69 28 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 3 remainder remainder NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 5 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 6 paper paper NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 8 show show VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 9 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 11 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 12 fact fact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 15 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 16 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 17 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 18 under under IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 19 very very RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 20 general general JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 21 circumstances circumstance NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 70 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 2 generalize generalize VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 4 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 5 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 6 several several JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 7 steps step NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 9 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 10 order order NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 11 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 12 explain explain VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 14 ideas idea NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 15 clearly clearly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 16 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 17 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 18 avoid avoid VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 19 exposing expose VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 20 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 21 reader reader NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 22 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 23 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 24 notational notational JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 25 burden burden NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 26 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 27 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 28 outset outset NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 71 29 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 2 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 3 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 4 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 5 ignores ignore VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 6 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 7 delay delay NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 8 between between IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 10 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 11 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 12 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 14 infected infect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 15 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 17 onset onset NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 19 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 72 20 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 2 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 3 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 5 often often RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 6 substantial substantial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 7 compared compare VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 8 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 10 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 11 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 13 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 14 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 15 May May NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 17 1991 1991 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 73 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 2 addition addition NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 4 some some DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 5 pathogens pathogen NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 7 notably notably RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 8 HIV HIV NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 10 give give VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 11 rise rise NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 12 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 13 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 14 sequence sequence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 16 distinct distinct JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 17 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 19 infection infection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 21 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 22 yielding yield VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 23 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 24 different different JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 25 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 26 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 28 Redfield Redfield NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 29 et et NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 30 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 31 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 32 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 33 1986 1986 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 74 34 ; ; . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 75 1 Seligmann Seligmann NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 75 2 et et NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 75 3 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 75 4 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 75 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 75 6 1987 1987 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 75 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 75 8 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 3 common common JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 4 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 5 incorporate incorporate VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 6 latency latency NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 7 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 8 including include VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 9 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 10 " " `` cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 11 exposed expose VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 12 " " '' cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 13 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 15 E E NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 17 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 18 yielding yield VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 19 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 20 SEIR seir NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 21 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 23 Schwartz Schwartz NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 24 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 25 Smith Smith NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 26 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 27 1983 1983 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 76 28 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 77 1 Earn earn VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 77 2 et et FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 77 3 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 77 4 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 77 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 77 6 2000a 2000a CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 77 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 77 8 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 1 However however RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 3 noting note VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 4 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 6 exposed expose VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 7 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 8 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 9 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 10 regarded regard VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 11 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 12 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 13 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 14 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 15 during during IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 16 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 18 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 19 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 20 happens happen VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 21 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 22 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 23 zero zero CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 25 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 26 lose lose VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 27 no no DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 28 generality generality NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 29 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 30 restricting restrict VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 31 attention attention NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 32 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 33 multiple multiple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 34 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 35 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 36 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 37 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 38 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 39 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 40 refer refer VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 41 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 42 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 43 SI SI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 44 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 45 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 46 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 47 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 48 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 49 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 50 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 51 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 52 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 78 53 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 1 Generalizing generalize VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 3 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 4 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 6 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 8 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 9 include include VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 10 multiple multiple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 12 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 15 equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 16 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 17 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 18 SI SI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 19 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 20 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 21 arė arė JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 22 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 23 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 24 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 25 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 26 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 27 density density NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 28 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 29 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 30 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 31 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 32 ith ith JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 33 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 34 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 35 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 36 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 37 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 38 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 39 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 40 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 41 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 42 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 43 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 44 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 45 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 46 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 47 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 48 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 49 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 50 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 51 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 52 γi γi NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 53 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 54 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 55 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 56 duration duration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 57 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 58 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 59 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 79 60 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 80 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 80 2 sum sum NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 80 3 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 80 4 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 80 5 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 2 6 6 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 5 zero zero CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 7 implying imply VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 8 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 9 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 10 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 11 n n CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 81 12 i=1 i=1 NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 82 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 83 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 83 2 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 83 3 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 83 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 83 5 invariant invariant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 83 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 83 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 84 1 hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 84 2 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 84 3 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 84 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 2 6d 6d NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 5 superfluous superfluous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 7 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 8 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 10 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 11 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 12 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 85 14 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 1 To to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 2 see see VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 3 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 5 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 6 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 7 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 8 well well RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 9 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 10 defined define VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 11 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 12 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 13 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 16 generalize generalize VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 18 argument argument NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 19 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 20 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 21 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 22 simple simple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 23 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 24 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 25 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 26 Section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 27 2 2 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 86 28 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 87 1 Let let VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 87 2 J J NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 87 3 k k XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 87 4 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 87 5 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 88 1 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 89 1 k k NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 89 2 i=1 i=1 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 90 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 91 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 91 2 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 92 1 Then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 92 2 d d XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 92 3 dt dt NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 93 1 J J NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 93 2 k k NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 94 1 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 94 2 −γ −γ VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 95 1 k k NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 96 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 96 2 k k XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 2 so so RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 3 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 4 k k XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 5 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 6 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 7 implies imply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 8 J J NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 9 k k NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 10 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 11 decreasing decrease VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 97 12 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 98 1 lim lim NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 98 2 t→∞ t→∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 98 3 d d NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 98 4 dt dt NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 98 5 J J NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 98 6 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 98 7 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 98 8 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 98 9 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 99 1 Hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 99 2 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 99 3 k k XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 99 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 99 5 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 99 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 100 1 = = LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 100 2 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 1 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 2 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 3 k. k. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 4 Before before IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 5 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 6 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 7 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 9 introduced introduce VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 10 into into IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 11 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 12 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 14 everyone everyone NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 15 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 16 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 17 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 18 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 20 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 21 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 22 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 23 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 24 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 25 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 26 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 27 · · NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 101 28 · · NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 102 1 · · NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 102 2 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 2 n n CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 3 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 4 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 5 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 6 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 7 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 8 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 9 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 10 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 11 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 12 known know VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 13 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 15 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 16 free free JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 17 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 19 DFE DFE NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 103 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 2 stability stability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 3 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 5 DFE DFE NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 6 determines determine VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 7 whether whether IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 9 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 10 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 11 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 12 cause cause VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 13 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 104 15 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 105 1 Hyman Hyman NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 105 2 et et NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 105 3 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 105 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 2 1999 1999 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 4 proved prove VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 5 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 7 quantity quantity NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 8 determines determine VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 10 stability stability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 11 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 13 DFE DFE NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 15 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 18 DFE DFE NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 19 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 20 locally locally RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 21 stable stable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 22 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 23 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 24 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 25 < < XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 26 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 27 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 106 28 unstable unstable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 107 1 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 107 2 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 107 3 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 107 4 > > SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 107 5 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 107 6 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 1 Note note VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 2 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 3 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 4 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 5 defined define VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 6 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 8 7 7 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 10 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 12 sum sum NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 15 products product NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 16 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 18 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 19 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 20 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 21 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 22 duration duration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 23 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 24 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 25 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 26 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 27 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 28 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 29 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 30 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 31 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 32 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 33 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 34 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 35 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 36 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 37 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 38 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 108 39 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 109 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 109 2 now now RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 109 3 proceed proceed VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 109 4 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 109 5 show show VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 109 6 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 109 7 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 109 8 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 2 6 6 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 4 yield yield VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 6 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 7 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 8 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 9 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 10 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 12 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 110 14 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 1 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 2 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 3 Watsons Watsons NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 5 1980 1980 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 7 established establish VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 8 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 9 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 11 special special JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 12 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 13 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 14 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 15 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 16 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 17 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 19 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 20 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 21 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 22 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 111 23 duration duration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 2 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 3 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 4 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 5 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 6 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 7 γ γ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 8 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 9 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 10 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 11 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 12 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 13 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 112 15 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 1 Their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 2 method method NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 3 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 4 easily easily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 5 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 6 generalized generalize VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 7 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 8 arbitrary arbitrary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 9 β β XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 10 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 11 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 12 γ γ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 13 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 14 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 15 follows follow VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 16 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 17 Let let VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 18 G g NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 19 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 20 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 113 21 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 114 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 115 1 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 115 2 k+1 k+1 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 116 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 2 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 3 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 5 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 6 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 7 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 9 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 10 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 117 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 118 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 118 2 n n CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 118 3 − − NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 118 4 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 118 5 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 118 6 G g NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 118 7 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 119 1 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 119 2 R. R. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 119 3 Then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 119 4 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 119 5 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 120 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 120 2 6c 6c NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 120 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 120 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 120 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 120 6 6d 6d NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 120 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 120 8 imply imply VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 120 9 d d NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 121 1 dt dt NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 121 2 G G NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 121 3 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 121 4 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 121 5 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 1 k k NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 2 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 3 k k NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 4 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 5 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 6 k k XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 7 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 8 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 9 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 10 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 122 12 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 123 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 123 2 n. n. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 124 1 Consequently consequently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 124 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 124 3 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 124 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 2 6a 6a LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 4 implies imply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 5 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 7 function function NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 9 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 10 constant constant NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 11 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 13 motion motion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 125 14 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 126 1 For for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 126 2 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 126 3 newly newly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 126 4 invading invade VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 126 5 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 126 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 126 7 S(0 S(0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 126 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 1 → → IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 2 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 4 I I NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 5 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 7 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 9 → → SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 10 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 11 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 12 Recalling recall VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 13 that that DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 14 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 15 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 16 R(∞ r(∞ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 18 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 19 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 20 − − NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 21 S(∞ S(∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 23 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 24 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 25 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 127 26 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 2 7 7 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 6 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 7 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 8 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 9 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 128 10 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 129 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 129 2 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 129 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 129 4 immediately immediately RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 129 5 follows follow VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 129 6 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 1 Consideration consideration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 2 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 3 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 4 special special JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 5 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 8 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 9 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 11 previous previous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 12 section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 13 allows allow VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 14 us -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 15 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 16 infer infer VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 17 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 19 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 20 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 21 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 22 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 23 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 24 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 25 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 26 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 27 need nee MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 28 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 29 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 30 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 31 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 130 32 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 2 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 3 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 4 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 6 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 8 holds hold VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 9 true true JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 10 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 12 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 13 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 14 follow follow VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 15 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 16 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 17 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 19 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 20 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 21 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 22 density density NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 131 23 Here here RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 3 shape shape NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 4 parameter parameter NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 5 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 6 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 7 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 8 positive positive JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 9 integer integer NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 10 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 12 scale scale NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 13 parameter parameter NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 14 φ φ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 15 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 16 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 132 17 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 133 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 133 2 mean mean NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 133 3 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 133 4 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 133 5 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 133 6 φ φ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 133 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 133 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 133 9 variance variance NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 134 1 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 134 2 k k NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 134 3 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 134 4 φ φ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 134 5 2 2 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 134 6 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 2 family family NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 3 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 4 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 5 includes include VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 7 exponential exponential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 8 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 10 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 11 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 12 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 15 nearly nearly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 16 normal normal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 17 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 19 k k IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 20 large large NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 22 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 23 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 24 Delta Delta NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 25 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 26 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 27 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 28 yields yield VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 29 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 30 fixed fix VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 31 duration duration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 33 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 34 → → NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 35 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 135 37 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 136 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 136 2 term term NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 136 3 −γ −γ VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 136 4 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 136 5 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 136 6 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 136 7 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 2 1b 1b LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 4 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 6 simple simple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 7 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 8 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 9 implies imply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 10 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 12 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 14 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 15 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 16 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 17 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 18 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 19 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 20 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 21 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 22 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 23 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 25 Brauer Brauer NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 26 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 27 Castillo Castillo NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 28 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 29 Chavez Chavez NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 30 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 31 2001 2001 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 137 33 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 1 Since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 3 sum sum NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 5 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 6 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 7 random random JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 8 variables variable NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 9 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 10 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 11 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 13 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 14 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 15 trick trick NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 17 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 18 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 19 Watsons Watsons NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 21 1980 1980 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 22 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 23 Lloyd Lloyd NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 25 2001a 2001a CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 26 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 27 b b LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 138 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 1 enables enable VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 2 us -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 3 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 4 replace replace VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 5 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 6 exponential exponential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 7 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 8 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 9 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 10 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 11 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 12 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 13 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 14 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 15 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 16 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 17 g g NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 18 k k XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 20 kγ kγ PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 22 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 23 also also RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 24 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 25 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 26 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 27 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 28 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 139 30 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 2 trick trick NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 3 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 4 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 5 replace replace VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 6 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 7 single single JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 8 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 9 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 10 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 11 k k NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 12 identical identical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 13 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 14 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 15 substages substage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 16 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 17 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 18 duration duration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 19 1/(kγ 1/(kγ CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 140 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 2 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 3 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 4 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 5 precisely precisely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 7 form form NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 9 SI SI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 10 n n NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 11 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 12 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 14 6 6 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 17 but but CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 18 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 19 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 20 sequence sequence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 21 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 22 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 23 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 24 being be VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 25 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 26 artefacts artefact NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 27 rather rather RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 28 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 29 biologically biologically RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 30 meaningful meaningful JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 141 31 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 1 Since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 2 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 3 substage substage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 4 trick trick NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 5 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 6 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 7 applied apply VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 8 equally equally RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 9 well well RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 10 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 11 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 12 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 13 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 15 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 16 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 17 Watson Watson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 18 's 's POS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 20 1980 1980 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 22 conclusion conclusion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 23 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 24 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 25 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 26 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 27 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 28 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 29 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 30 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 31 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 32 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 33 distributed distribute VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 34 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 35 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 36 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 37 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 38 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 39 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 40 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 41 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 42 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 43 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 45 now now RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 46 generalizes generalize VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 47 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 48 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 49 arbitrary arbitrary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 50 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 51 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 52 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 53 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 54 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 55 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 56 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 57 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 58 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 142 59 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 1 Although although IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 2 expressed express VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 3 differently differently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 5 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 6 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 7 original original JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 8 paper paper NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 9 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 10 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 11 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 13 1927 1927 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 15 studied study VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 16 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 17 particular particular JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 18 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 19 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 20 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 21 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 22 distributed distribute VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 23 multiple multiple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 24 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 25 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 26 described describe VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 27 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 28 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 29 previous previous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 30 section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 143 31 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 1 Suppose suppose VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 3 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 4 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 5 sequence sequence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 7 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 8 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 9 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 11 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 12 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 14 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 16 fixed fix VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 17 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 18 duration duration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 19 τ τ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 144 20 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 145 1 Thus thus RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 145 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 145 3 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 145 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 145 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 145 6 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 145 7 k k NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 1 → → IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 2 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 3 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 5 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 6 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 8 10 10 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 11 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 12 φ φ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 13 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 14 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 15 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 16 τ τ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 146 17 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 147 1 During during IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 147 2 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 147 3 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 147 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 147 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 147 6 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 147 7 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 147 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 147 9 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 3 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 4 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 5 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 7 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 8 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 9 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 11 n n LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 148 13 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 3 now now RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 4 let let VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 6 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 7 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 8 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 9 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 10 increase increase VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 12 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 13 → → NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 14 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 16 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 18 length length NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 19 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 20 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 21 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 22 decrease decrease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 24 τ τ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 25 → → IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 26 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 28 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 29 keeping keep VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 30 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 31 total total JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 32 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 33 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 35 T t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 36 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 37 nτ nτ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 39 constant constant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 40 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 41 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 42 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 43 arrive arrive VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 44 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 45 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 46 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 47 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 48 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 49 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 50 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 51 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 52 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 53 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 54 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 55 varies vary VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 56 continuously continuously RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 57 through through IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 58 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 59 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 60 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 149 61 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 2 such such PDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 3 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 4 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 6 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 7 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 8 's 's POS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 9 infectivity infectivity NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 10 depends depend VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 11 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 12 his -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 13 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 14 her -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 15 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 16 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 17 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 19 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 21 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 22 amount amount NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 23 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 24 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 25 since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 26 initial initial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 27 infection infection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 150 28 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 1 Using use VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 2 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 3 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 4 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 5 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 6 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 7 formulation formulation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 9 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 10 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 11 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 13 1927 1927 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 15 derived derive VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 17 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 18 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 19 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 21 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 23 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 24 showed show VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 25 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 26 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 27 form form NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 28 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 29 independent independent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 30 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 31 how how WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 32 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 33 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 34 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 35 depends depend VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 36 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 37 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 38 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 39 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 151 40 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 2 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 3 seen see VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 4 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 6 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 7 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 8 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 10 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 12 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 14 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 15 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 16 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 17 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 18 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 19 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 20 according accord VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 21 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 22 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 23 member member NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 24 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 25 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 26 family family NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 27 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 28 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 29 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 30 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 32 10 10 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 152 34 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 2 suggests suggest VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 3 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 4 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 5 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 7 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 8 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 9 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 10 yield yield VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 12 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 13 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 14 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 153 15 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 1 Unlike unlike IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 3 situation situation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 4 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 5 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 6 distributed distribute VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 7 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 8 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 9 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 10 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 11 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 12 arbitrary arbitrary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 13 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 15 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 16 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 17 evolution evolution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 19 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 20 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 21 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 22 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 23 no no RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 24 longer longer RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 25 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 26 expressed express VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 27 using use VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 28 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 29 differential differential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 30 equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 32 ODEs ode NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 154 34 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 1 Instead instead RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 4 must must MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 5 construct construct VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 6 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 7 system system NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 8 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 9 integro integro JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 10 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 11 differential differential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 12 equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 14 Feng Feng NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 15 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 16 Thieme Thieme NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 17 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 18 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 155 20 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 1 Let let VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 2 U(t u(t CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 4 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 6 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 7 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 8 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 9 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 10 become become VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 13 enter enter VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 14 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 15 I i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 17 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 18 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 19 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 20 ≥ ≥ CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 21 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 22 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 23 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 25 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 26 equation equation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 27 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 28 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 29 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 30 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 31 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 32 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 33 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 34 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 35 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 36 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 37 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 38 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 39 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 40 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 41 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 42 also also RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 43 define define VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 44 U(t U(t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 45 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 46 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 47 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 48 < < XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 49 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 50 since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 51 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 52 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 53 allow allow VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 54 us -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 55 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 56 specify specify VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 57 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 58 initial initial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 59 conditions condition NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 156 60 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 1 For for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 2 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 3 < < XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 4 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 6 U(t U(t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 10 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 11 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 12 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 13 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 14 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 15 were be VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 16 still still RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 17 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 18 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 19 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 20 initial initial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 21 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 23 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 24 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 26 became become VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 27 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 28 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 29 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 157 30 t. t. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 1 Hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 4 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 5 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 6 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 7 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 8 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 9 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 10 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 11 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 12 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 14 Let let VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 15 f f LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 17 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 19 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 20 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 21 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 22 density density NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 23 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 24 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 25 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 26 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 158 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 1 so so RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 3 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 5 special special JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 6 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 7 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 8 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 9 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 10 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 12 f f NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 14 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 16 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 17 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 18 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 19 g g NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 20 k k NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 21 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 22 φ φ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 24 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 26 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 27 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 28 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 29 10 10 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 159 31 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 1 For for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 2 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 3 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 4 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 5 becomes become VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 6 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 7 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 8 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 9 τ τ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 10 ≥ ≥ CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 11 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 14 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 15 density density NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 16 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 17 s s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 18 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 19 he -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 20 recovers recover VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 22 leaves leave VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 23 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 24 I I NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 25 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 27 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 28 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 160 29 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 161 1 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 1 τ τ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 3 However however RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 5 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 6 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 7 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 8 became become VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 10 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 11 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 12 τ τ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 13 < < XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 14 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 17 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 18 density density NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 19 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 20 leave leave VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 21 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 22 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 23 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 24 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 25 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 26 must must MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 27 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 28 conditioned condition VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 29 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 30 still still RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 31 being be VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 32 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 33 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 34 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 35 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 36 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 162 37 Hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 3 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 5 change change NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 8 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 10 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 11 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 12 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 13 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 14 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 15 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 16 Those those DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 17 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 18 leave leave VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 19 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 20 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 21 enter enter VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 22 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 23 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 163 25 hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 2 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 3 B B NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 6 show show VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 7 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 8 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 10 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 11 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 12 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 13 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 14 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 15 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 16 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 164 17 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 2 11 11 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 4 reduce reduce VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 5 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 8 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 9 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 10 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 12 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 165 14 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 1 As as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 2 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 4 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 5 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 6 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 8 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 12 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 13 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 14 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 166 15 invariant invariant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 167 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 167 2 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 168 1 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 2 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 3 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 4 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 5 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 8 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 9 ≥ ≥ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 10 0 0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 12 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 13 S(∞ S(∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 15 exists exist VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 169 16 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 170 1 Establishing establish VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 170 2 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 170 3 I(∞ I(∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 170 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 170 5 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 170 6 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 2 so so IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 4 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 5 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 6 burn burn VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 7 out out RP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 8 regardless regardless RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 12 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 13 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 15 requires require VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 16 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 17 little little JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 18 more more JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 19 work work NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 171 20 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 1 Since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 2 f f LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 4 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 6 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 7 l(τ l(τ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 9 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 11 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 12 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 13 densities density NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 15 ∞ ∞ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 16 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 17 f f NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 19 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 21 dt dt NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 22 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 23 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 24 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 25 l(τ l(τ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 26 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 27 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 29 dt dt NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 30 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 31 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 32 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 33 consequently consequently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 34 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 35 switching switch VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 36 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 37 order order NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 38 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 39 integrations integration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 40 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 41 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 42 find find VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 43 Next Next NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 44 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 45 integrating integrate VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 46 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 47 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 48 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 49 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 50 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 51 both both DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 52 sides side NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 53 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 54 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 172 55 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 173 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 173 2 11f 11f CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 173 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 173 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 173 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 173 6 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 173 7 I(∞ i(∞ CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 173 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 174 1 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 174 2 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 174 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 1 To to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 2 relate relate VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 4 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 5 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 6 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 8 present present JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 9 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 10 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 12 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 13 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 15 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 17 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 18 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 19 need need VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 20 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 21 expression expression NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 22 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 23 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 24 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 25 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 26 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 27 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 28 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 175 29 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 1 Feng Feng NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 2 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 3 Thieme Thieme NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 5 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 7 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 8 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 9 now now RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 10 divide divide VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 11 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 176 12 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 2 11b 11b NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 4 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 5 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 6 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 7 integrate integrate VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 9 yielding yield VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 10 Therefore therefore RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 13 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 14 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 15 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 16 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 18 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 20 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 21 follow follow VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 22 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 23 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 24 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 25 I(t I(t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 27 dt dt NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 177 28 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 178 1 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 178 2 Z. Z. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 3 plausible plausible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 5 intuitively intuitively RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 7 since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 9 integral integral JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 10 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 11 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 12 I(t I(t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 14 dt dt NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 15 sums sum VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 16 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 17 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 18 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 20 weighted weight VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 21 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 22 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 23 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 24 they -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 25 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 26 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 27 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 28 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 29 must must MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 30 also also RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 31 equal equal VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 32 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 33 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 34 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 35 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 36 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 37 times time NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 38 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 39 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 40 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 41 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 42 infected infect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 43 over over IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 44 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 45 course course NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 46 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 47 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 48 entire entire JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 49 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 50 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 51 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 52 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 53 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 54 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 55 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 179 56 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 1 More more RBR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 2 rigorously rigorously RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 4 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 5 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 6 B B NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 8 prove prove VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 9 Lemma Lemma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 10 6.1 6.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 180 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 181 1 For for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 181 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 181 3 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 181 4 specified specify VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 181 5 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 181 6 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 181 7 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 2 11 11 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 5 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 7 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 9 11 11 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 182 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 3 initial initial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 4 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 5 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 6 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 7 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 9 small small JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 11 I(0 I(0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 183 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 1 → → SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 2 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 5 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 7 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 8 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 13 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 15 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 16 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 17 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 19 classical classical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 20 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 22 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 184 24 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 2 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 3 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 6 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 7 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 8 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 9 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 10 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 11 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 185 12 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 1 βT βT NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 3 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 4 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 5 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 7 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 8 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 9 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 186 10 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 1 With with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 2 modest modest JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 3 additional additional JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 4 effort effort NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 7 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 8 generalize generalize VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 9 Theorem Theorem NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 10 6.1 6.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 11 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 13 multiple multiple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 14 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 15 SI SI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 16 n n NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 17 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 18 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 20 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 21 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 22 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 23 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 24 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 25 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 26 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 28 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 30 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 31 still still RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 32 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 33 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 34 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 35 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 36 multiple multiple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 37 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 38 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 39 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 40 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 41 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 42 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 43 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 44 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 45 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 46 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 47 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 187 48 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 1 Recall recall VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 2 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 3 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 4 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 5 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 6 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 7 considered consider VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 8 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 9 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 10 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 11 zero zero CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 12 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 13 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 15 so so IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 17 do do VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 18 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 19 make make VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 20 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 21 explicit explicit JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 22 reference reference NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 23 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 24 latency latency NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 188 25 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 1 As as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 2 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 3 all all PDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 5 situations situation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 6 considered consider VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 7 above above RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 10 assume assume VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 11 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 12 vital vital JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 13 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 15 births birth NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 16 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 17 deaths death NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 19 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 20 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 21 ignored ignore VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 22 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 23 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 24 recovery recovery NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 25 entails entail VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 26 lifelong lifelong JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 27 immunity immunity NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 189 28 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 1 Suppose suppose VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 3 ith ith JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 4 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 5 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 6 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 7 duration duration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 8 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 9 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 10 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 11 density density NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 12 f f NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 13 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 15 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 190 17 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 191 1 mean mean VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 191 2 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 191 3 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 191 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 1 Thus thus RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 3 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 5 special special JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 6 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 7 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 8 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 9 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 10 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 11 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 12 follow follow VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 13 Gamma gamma NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 14 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 16 10 10 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 19 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 20 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 21 f f XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 22 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 24 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 192 26 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 1 g g NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 2 ki ki NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 3 φi φi NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 5 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 8 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 10 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 11 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 12 change change NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 15 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 16 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 17 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 18 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 19 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 20 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 193 21 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 2 6a 6a NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 5 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 6 when when WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 7 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 8 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 9 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 10 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 11 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 12 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 194 13 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 1 Similar similar JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 2 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 3 Section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 4 6 6 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 7 equation equation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 8 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 9 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 10 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 11 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 12 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 13 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 14 writteṅ writteṅ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 15 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 16 U U NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 17 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 19 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 21 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 22 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 23 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 24 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 25 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 26 entering enter VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 195 27 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 196 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 196 2 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 196 3 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 196 4 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 196 5 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 196 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 196 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 2 initial initial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 3 conditions condition NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 4 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 5 specified specify VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 6 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 7 Individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 8 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 9 leave leave VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 11 last last JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 12 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 13 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 14 recover recover VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 16 into into IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 17 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 18 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 21 hencė hencė RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 22 When when WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 23 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 24 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 25 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 26 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 27 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 28 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 29 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 30 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 31 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 32 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 33 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 34 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 35 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 36 f f FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 37 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 39 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 197 41 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 198 1 γ γ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 199 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 199 2 e e NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 1 −γi −γi CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 2 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 5 technique technique NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 6 introduced introduce VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 7 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 8 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 9 B B NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 10 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 11 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 12 applied apply VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 13 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 14 show show VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 15 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 17 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 19 13 13 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 21 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 22 indeed indeed RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 23 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 24 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 25 multiple multiple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 26 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 27 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 28 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 29 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 200 30 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 2 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 3 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 6 SI SI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 7 n n NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 8 R R NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 9 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 10 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 11 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 12 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 13 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 14 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 16 13 13 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 19 Feng Feng NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 20 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 21 Thieme Thieme NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 23 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 25 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 26 shown show VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 27 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 28 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 29 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 30 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 31 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 32 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 33 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 34 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 35 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 36 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 37 free free JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 38 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 39 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 40 unstable unstable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 41 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 42 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 43 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 44 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 45 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 46 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 47 > > SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 48 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 201 49 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 202 1 Similar similar JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 202 2 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 202 3 previous previous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 202 4 sections section NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 202 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 202 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 202 7 find find VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 202 8 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 202 9 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 203 1 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 204 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 205 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 2 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 3 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 4 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 5 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 6 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 7 invariant invariant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 9 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 10 ≥ ≥ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 11 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 13 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 14 S(∞ S(∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 16 exists exist VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 206 17 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 207 1 Integrating integrate VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 207 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 207 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 2 13a 13a NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 4 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 5 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 6 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 7 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 8 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 9 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 10 switching switch VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 12 order order NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 14 integrations integration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 17 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 18 I(t I(t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 20 ≥ ≥ CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 21 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 22 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 23 similarly similarly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 25 integrating integrate VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 26 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 27 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 28 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 29 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 30 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 31 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 32 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 33 I(∞ i(∞ CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 208 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 209 1 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 209 2 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 209 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 1 Thus thus RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 4 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 5 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 6 also also RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 7 eventually eventually RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 8 burn burn VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 9 out out RP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 210 10 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 211 1 Theorem Theorem NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 211 2 7.1 7.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 211 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 1 Consider consider VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 3 multiple multiple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 4 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 5 SI SI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 6 n n NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 7 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 9 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 10 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 11 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 12 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 13 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 14 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 16 specified specify VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 17 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 18 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 212 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 213 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 213 2 13 13 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 213 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 213 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 3 initial initial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 4 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 5 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 6 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 7 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 9 suffciently suffciently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 10 small small JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 12 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 14 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 214 16 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 215 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 216 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 216 2 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 216 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 216 4 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 216 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 1 → → SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 2 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 5 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 6 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 7 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 9 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 10 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 12 unique unique JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 13 solution solution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 14 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 15 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 217 16 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 218 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 218 2 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 218 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 218 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 218 5 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 218 6 explicitly explicitly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 218 7 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 218 8 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 218 9 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 2 A.2 a.2 NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 5 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 6 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 7 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 8 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 9 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 10 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 11 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 12 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 219 13 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 220 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 220 2 14 14 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 220 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 220 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 221 1 Proof proof NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 221 2 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 1 To to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 2 prove prove VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 3 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 6 divide divide VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 7 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 8 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 9 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 10 both both DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 11 sides side NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 14 6a 6a NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 16 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 17 integrate integrate VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 18 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 19 respect respect NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 20 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 21 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 22 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 23 Using use VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 24 Lemma Lemma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 25 6.1 6.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 26 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 27 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 222 28 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 223 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 223 2 15 15 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 223 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 223 4 becomes become VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 223 5 Suppose suppose NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 224 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 224 2 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 224 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 224 4 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 224 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 224 6 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 225 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 225 2 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 225 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 1 Switching switch VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 3 order order NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 5 integration integration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 7 Also also RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 9 integrating integrate VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 10 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 226 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 2 13d 13d CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 5 switching switch VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 7 order order NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 8 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 9 integrations integration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 12 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 13 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 15 summed sum VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 16 over over IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 17 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 18 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 20 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 21 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 22 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 23 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 24 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 25 enter enter VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 26 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 28 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 29 + + SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 30 1)th 1)th CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 31 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 32 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 33 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 34 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 35 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 36 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 37 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 38 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 39 enter enter VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 40 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 41 ith ith JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 42 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 227 43 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 228 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 228 2 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 228 3 integrate integrate VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 228 4 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 228 5 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 229 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 229 2 6a 6a CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 229 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 229 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 1 From from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 3 definition definition NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 5 U U NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 6 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 8 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 10 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 11 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 230 12 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 2 13c 13c CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 6 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 7 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 8 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 9 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 10 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 11 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 13 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 14 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 231 15 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 2 n. n. NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 3 Notice notice NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 4 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 6 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 7 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 8 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 9 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 10 S(0 S(0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 12 − − NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 13 S(∞ S(∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 16 so so RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 17 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 232 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 2 16 16 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 4 becomes become VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 5 During during IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 8 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 9 severe severe JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 10 acute acute JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 11 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 12 syndrome syndrome NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 14 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 16 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 233 17 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 234 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 234 2 Poutanen Poutanen NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 234 3 et et FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 234 4 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 234 5 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 234 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 234 7 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 234 8 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 1 Low low JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 2 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 3 McGeer McGeer NNPS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 5 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 8 one one CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 9 aspect aspect NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 11 observed observed JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 12 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 13 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 14 received receive VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 15 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 16 great great JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 17 deal deal NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 19 attention attention NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 20 was be VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 21 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 22 existence existence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 23 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 24 super super JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 25 - - NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 26 spreaders spreader NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 28 WHO who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 29 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 30 Update Update NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 31 27 27 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 32 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 33 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 35 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 36 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 37 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 38 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 39 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 40 infect infect VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 41 many many JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 42 more more JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 43 people people NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 44 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 45 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 46 average average NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 47 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 48 e.g. e.g. RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 49 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 50 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 51 least least JJS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 52 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 53 order order NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 54 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 55 magnitude magnitude NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 56 greater great JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 57 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 58 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 59 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 60 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 235 61 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 2 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 3 section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 6 prove prove VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 7 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 9 existence existence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 12 type type NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 14 super super JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 15 - - NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 16 spreaders spreader NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 17 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 18 occurred occur VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 19 during during IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 20 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 21 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 22 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 23 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 24 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 25 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 26 no no DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 27 effect effect NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 28 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 29 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 30 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 31 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 32 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 236 33 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 1 One one CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 2 mechanism mechanism NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 3 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 5 generation generation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 7 super super JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 8 - - NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 9 spreaders spreader NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 10 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 11 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 13 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 14 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 15 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 16 could could MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 17 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 18 bimodal bimodal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 20 such such JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 21 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 22 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 23 small small JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 24 proportion proportion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 25 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 26 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 27 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 28 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 29 much much RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 30 longer long JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 31 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 32 average average JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 237 33 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 2 situation situation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 3 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 4 already already RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 5 covered cover VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 6 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 7 Theorem Theorem NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 8 7.1 7.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 9 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 10 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 11 deals deal VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 12 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 13 arbitrary arbitrary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 14 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 16 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 17 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 238 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 2 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 3 section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 6 consider consider VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 7 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 8 different different JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 9 type type NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 11 generalization generalization NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 14 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 15 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 239 16 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 2 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 3 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 5 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 7 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 8 considered consider VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 9 thus thus RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 10 far far RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 13 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 14 been be VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 15 assumed assume VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 16 implicitly implicitly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 17 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 18 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 19 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 20 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 21 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 22 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 23 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 24 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 25 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 240 26 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 2 some some DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 3 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 4 actually actually RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 5 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 6 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 7 much much RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 8 higher high JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 9 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 10 average average JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 11 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 12 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 13 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 14 they -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 15 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 16 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 17 super super JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 18 - - NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 19 spreaders spreader NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 241 20 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 2 could could MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 3 arise arise VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 5 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 6 example example NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 8 because because IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 10 individual individual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 11 variation variation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 12 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 13 viral viral JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 14 load load NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 16 reflecting reflect VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 17 variation variation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 18 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 19 immune immune JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 20 response response NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 22 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 23 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 24 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 25 result result NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 26 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 27 chance chance NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 28 occurence occurence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 29 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 30 environmental environmental JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 31 circumstances circumstance NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 32 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 33 promote promote VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 34 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 35 spread spread VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 37 as as RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 38 apparently apparently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 39 occurred occur VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 40 during during IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 41 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 42 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 43 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 45 WHO who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 46 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 47 Update Update NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 48 33 33 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 49 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 50 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 51 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 52 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 242 53 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 1 Whatever whatever WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 3 origin origin NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 6 focus focus VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 7 here here RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 8 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 9 variation variation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 10 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 11 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 12 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 13 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 14 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 15 manifested manifest VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 16 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 17 after after IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 18 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 19 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 20 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 21 infected infect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 243 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 3 following following JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 4 sections section NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 6 consider consider VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 8 effects effect NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 10 intrinsic intrinsic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 11 variation variation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 12 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 13 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 14 rates rate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 15 among among IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 16 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 17 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 18 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 19 results result VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 20 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 21 inhomogeneous inhomogeneous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 22 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 23 network network NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 24 structure structure NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 25 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 26 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 27 host host NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 28 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 244 29 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 2 now now RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 3 proceed proceed VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 4 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 5 develop develop VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 6 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 7 analyze analyze VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 8 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 9 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 10 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 11 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 12 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 13 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 14 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 15 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 16 rates rate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 17 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 18 show show VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 19 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 20 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 21 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 22 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 23 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 24 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 26 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 28 applies apply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 245 29 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 1 Extension extension NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 2 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 4 results result NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 5 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 6 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 7 multiple multiple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 8 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 9 SI SI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 10 n n NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 11 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 12 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 14 straightfoward straightfoward JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 15 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 16 similar similar JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 17 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 19 way way NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 21 generalized generalize VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 22 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 23 results result NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 24 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 25 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 26 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 27 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 28 arbitrary arbitrary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 29 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 30 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 31 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 32 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 33 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 34 SI si NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 35 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 36 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 37 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 38 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 39 arbitrary arbitrary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 40 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 41 duration duration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 42 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 246 43 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 1 Let let VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 2 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 4 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 6 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 8 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 10 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 11 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 12 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 14 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 15 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 16 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 17 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 18 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 19 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 20 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 21 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 247 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 1 Note note VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 2 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 4 assume assume VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 5 implicitly implicitly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 6 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 7 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 8 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 9 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 10 retains retain VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 12 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 13 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 14 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 15 throughout throughout IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 16 his -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 17 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 18 her -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 19 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 20 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 21 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 22 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 23 hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 24 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 25 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 26 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 27 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 28 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 29 determined determine VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 30 as as RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 31 soon soon RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 32 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 33 infection infection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 34 occurs occur VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 248 35 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 1 Let let VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 2 q(β q(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 4 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 6 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 7 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 8 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 9 newly newly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 10 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 11 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 12 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 13 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 14 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 15 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 249 16 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 1 Thus thus RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 4 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 5 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 6 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 7 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 8 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 9 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 11 change change NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 14 proportion proportion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 17 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 18 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 19 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 20 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 250 21 iṡ iṡ RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 1 Upon upon IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 2 infection infection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 4 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 5 leave leave VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 7 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 8 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 9 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 10 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 11 enter enter VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 13 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 14 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 15 I i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 17 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 18 proportion proportion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 19 q(β q(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 21 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 22 them -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 23 having have VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 24 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 25 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 26 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 27 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 251 28 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 1 Upon upon IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 2 recovery recovery NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 4 they -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 5 leave leave VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 7 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 8 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 9 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 10 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 11 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 252 12 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 1 Thus thus RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 3 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 4 order order NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 5 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 6 ensure ensure VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 7 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 9 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 10 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 11 well well RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 12 posed pose VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 15 must must MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 16 establish establish VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 17 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 18 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 19 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 21 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 23 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 253 24 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 1 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 2 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 4 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 6 > > NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 7 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 8 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 9 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 10 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 254 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 255 1 Suppose suppose VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 255 2 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 255 3 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 255 4 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 255 5 true true JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 255 6 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 256 1 Then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 256 2 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 256 3 existsβ existsβ NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 256 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 256 5 T t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 256 6 such such JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 256 7 that that DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 1 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 2 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 3 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 5 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 7 dβ dβ XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 8 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 9 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 11 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 13 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 15 > > NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 16 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 17 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 18 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 19 < < XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 20 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 21 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 22 but but CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 23 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 25 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 27 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 28 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 257 29 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 258 1 Substituting substitute VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 258 2 these these DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 258 3 conditions condition NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 258 4 into into IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 258 5 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 258 6 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 2 21b 21b NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 6 obtainİ(β obtaini̇(β VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 8 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 259 10 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 260 1 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 260 2 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 1 But but CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 2 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 3 contradicts contradict VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 5 hypothesis hypothesis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 6 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 7 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 9 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 11 decreases decrease VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 12 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 13 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 15 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 261 17 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 262 1 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 262 2 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 262 3 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 262 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 262 5 T T NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 262 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 263 1 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 263 2 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 263 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 264 1 Hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 264 2 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 264 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 264 4 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 264 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 264 6 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 265 1 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 265 2 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 265 3 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 265 4 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 265 5 ≥ ≥ CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 265 6 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 265 7 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 2 now now RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 3 check check VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 4 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 6 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 7 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 8 always always RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 9 burn burn VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 10 out out RP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 11 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 12 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 13 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 15 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 16 expected expect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 266 17 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 267 1 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 267 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 267 3 strictly strictly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 267 4 negative negative JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 267 5 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 268 1 Hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 268 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 268 3 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 1 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 2 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 3 tot tot VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 5 decreasing decrease VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 6 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 7 bounded bound VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 8 below below RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 9 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 10 zero zero CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 269 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 270 1 Hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 270 2 lim lim NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 270 3 t→∞ t→∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 270 4 d d NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 270 5 dt dt NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 270 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 270 7 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 271 1 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 272 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 272 2 tot tot VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 272 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 1 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 2 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 4 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 6 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 7 tot tot VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 9 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 11 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 12 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 273 13 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 274 1 For for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 274 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 274 3 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 274 4 specified specify VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 274 5 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 274 6 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 274 7 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 2 21 21 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 6 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 7 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 8 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 9 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 10 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 11 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 12 B B NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 15 prove prove VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 16 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 18 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 19 free free JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 20 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 22 DFE DFE NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 24 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 275 25 unstable unstable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 276 1 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 276 2 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 276 3 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 276 4 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 276 5 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 276 6 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 276 7 > > SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 276 8 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 276 9 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 1 To to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 2 find find VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 4 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 5 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 8 divide divide VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 9 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 10 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 11 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 12 both both DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 13 sides side NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 14 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 16 21a 21a NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 18 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 19 integrate integrate VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 21 Substituting substitute VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 22 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 277 23 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 278 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 278 2 21a 21a NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 278 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 278 4 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 278 5 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 278 6 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 2 21b 21b NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 5 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 6 writė writė VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 7 Integrating integrate VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 8 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 10 obtain obtain VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 11 Since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 13 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 14 established establish VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 15 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 16 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 17 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 18 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 20 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 21 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 22 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 23 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 24 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 25 write write VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 26 Substituting substitute VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 28 25 25 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 30 into into IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 32 24 24 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 34 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 35 using use VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 37 23 23 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 39 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 40 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 41 obtain obtain VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 42 Hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 43 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 44 since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 45 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 46 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 47 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 48 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 49 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 50 S(0 S(0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 51 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 52 − − NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 53 S(∞ S(∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 54 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 55 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 56 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 57 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 58 It -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 59 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 60 possible possible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 61 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 62 generalize generalize VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 63 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 64 theorem theorem NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 65 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 66 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 67 SI SI NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 68 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 69 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 70 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 71 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 72 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 73 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 74 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 75 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 76 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 77 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 78 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 79 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 80 rates rate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 81 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 82 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 83 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 279 84 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 2 do do VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 3 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 4 go go VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 5 through through IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 7 details detail NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 8 because because IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 9 no no DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 10 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 11 ideas idea NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 12 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 13 required require VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 280 14 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 1 With with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 2 Theorems Theorems NNPS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 3 7.1 7.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 5 8.1 8.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 6 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 7 hand hand NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 10 extra extra JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 11 effort effort NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 12 required require VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 13 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 15 generalization generalization NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 16 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 17 merely merely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 18 one one CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 19 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 20 keeping keep VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 21 track track NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 22 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 23 notation notation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 281 24 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 2 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 3 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 5 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 6 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 8 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 9 discussed discuss VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 10 so so RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 11 far far RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 14 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 15 assumed assume VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 16 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 18 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 19 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 20 homogeneously homogeneously RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 21 mixed mixed JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 282 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 3 remainder remainder NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 5 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 6 paper paper NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 9 explore explore VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 11 significance significance NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 13 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 14 mixing mixing NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 15 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 17 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 18 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 19 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 283 20 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 3 present present JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 4 section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 6 identify identify VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 7 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 8 important important JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 9 class class NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 11 spatially spatially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 12 structured structured JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 13 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 14 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 15 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 17 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 18 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 20 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 22 remains remain VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 23 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 284 24 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 1 A a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 2 simple simple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 3 but but CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 4 important important JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 5 example example NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 7 heterogenous heterogenous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 8 mixing mixing NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 9 occurs occur VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 10 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 12 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 14 divided divide VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 15 into into IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 16 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 17 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 19 spatially spatially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 20 isolated isolate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 21 patches patch NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 23 e.g. e.g. RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 25 cities city NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 27 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 28 often often RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 29 called call VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 30 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 31 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 33 Hanski Hanski NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 34 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 35 Gilpin Gilpin NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 36 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 37 1997 1997 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 285 39 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 2 ecological ecological JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 3 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 5 coupling couple VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 6 among among IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 7 patches patch NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 8 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 9 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 10 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 11 usually usually RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 12 occurs occur VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 13 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 14 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 15 result result NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 16 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 17 migration migration NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 19 Earn earn VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 20 et et FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 21 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 22 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 23 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 24 2000b 2000b CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 286 26 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 3 present present JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 4 context context NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 6 inter inter JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 7 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 8 patch patch JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 9 coupling coupling NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 10 occurs occur VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 11 because because IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 12 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 13 travel travel VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 14 temporarily temporarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 15 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 16 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 17 home home NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 18 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 19 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 20 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 21 patches patch NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 287 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 1 On on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 2 such such JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 3 journeys journey NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 5 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 6 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 7 might may MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 8 contact contact VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 10 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 11 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 12 become become VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 13 infected infected JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 15 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 16 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 17 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 18 might may MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 19 contact contact VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 20 susceptibles susceptible NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 21 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 22 infect infect VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 23 them -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 288 24 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 3 restrict restrict VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 4 attention attention NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 5 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 6 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 7 single single JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 8 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 9 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 10 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 11 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 12 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 13 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 14 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 15 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 17 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 18 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 19 specified specify VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 20 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 21 follows follow VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 289 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 1 Here here RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 3 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 4 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 6 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 7 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 9 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 10 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 11 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 13 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 14 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 15 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 17 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 21 n n LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 23 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 24 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 25 proportions proportion NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 26 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 27 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 28 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 29 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 290 30 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 2 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 3 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 4 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 6 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 7 recovered recover VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 9 respectively respectively RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 291 10 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 292 1 Summing sum VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 292 2 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 292 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 2 26 26 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 6 see see VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 7 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 8 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 9 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 11 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 293 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 294 1 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 294 2 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 294 3 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 294 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 294 5 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 294 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 1 + + CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 2 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 3 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 5 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 7 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 8 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 9 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 10 invariant invariant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 11 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 12 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 13 patches patch NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 295 14 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 296 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 296 2 denote denote VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 296 3 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 296 4 N n CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 297 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 298 1 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 298 2 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 298 3 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 298 4 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 298 5 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 298 6 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 299 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 300 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 300 2 so so CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 300 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 300 4 total total JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 300 5 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 300 6 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 300 7 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 300 8 N n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 300 9 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 301 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 302 1 N N NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 303 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 303 2 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 304 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 304 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 304 3 also also RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 304 4 convenient convenient JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 304 5 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 304 6 use use VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 304 7 B b NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 304 8 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 305 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 305 2 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 305 3 i i NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 305 4 j j NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 305 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 306 1 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 306 2 denote denote VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 306 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 306 4 n n NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 306 5 × × NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 306 6 n n NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 306 7 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 306 8 matrix matrix NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 306 9 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 1 Similar similar JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 2 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 4 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 5 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 6 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 7 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 8 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 9 previous previous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 10 sections section NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 14 straightforward straightforward JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 15 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 16 prove prove VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 17 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 18 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 19 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 21 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 23 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 24 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 25 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 27 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 307 29 , , . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 308 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 308 2 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 309 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 309 2 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 309 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 309 4 exist exist VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 309 5 , , . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 310 1 that that DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 310 2 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 310 3 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 310 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 310 5 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 310 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 310 7 + + . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 1 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 2 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 4 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 6 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 7 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 8 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 9 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 10 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 11 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 13 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 15 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 16 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 311 17 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 312 1 Since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 312 2 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 2 j j NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 3 ≥ ≥ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 4 0 0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 7 dominant dominant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 8 eigenvalue eigenvalue NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 9 λ λ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 11 B B NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 12 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 13 real real JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 14 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 15 positive positive JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 17 Horn Horn NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 18 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 19 Johnson Johnson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 21 1985 1985 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 313 23 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 3 linearize linearize VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 5 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 7 26 26 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 9 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 11 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 12 free free JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 13 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 15 DFE DFE NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 314 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 315 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 315 2 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 316 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 317 1 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 317 2 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 317 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 318 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 2 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 3 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 5 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 6 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 7 = = NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 8 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 12 see see VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 13 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 15 stability stability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 16 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 18 DFE DFE NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 19 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 20 determined determine VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 21 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 22 λ λ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 319 23 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 2 λ λ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 3 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 4 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 5 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 6 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 8 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 10 DFE DFE NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 11 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 12 unstable unstable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 14 otherwise otherwise RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 16 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 17 stable stable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 320 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 1 Thus thus RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 4 threshold threshold NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 5 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 6 exponential exponential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 7 growth growth NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 8 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 9 cases case NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 11 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 14 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 15 determined determine VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 16 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 18 value value NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 19 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 20 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 21 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 321 22 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 1 λ λ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 2 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 3 γ γ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 5 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 6 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 7 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 8 interpreted interpret VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 9 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 11 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 13 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 15 van van NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 16 den den NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 17 Driessche Driessche NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 18 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 19 Watmough Watmough NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 21 2002 2002 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 322 23 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 323 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 323 2 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 323 3 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 323 4 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 323 5 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 324 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 324 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 325 1 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 325 2 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 325 3 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 326 1 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 326 2 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 326 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 326 4 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 326 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 327 1 − − NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 327 2 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 327 3 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 327 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 327 5 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 327 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 327 7 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 2 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 3 obtain obtain VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 4 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 5 system system NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 7 n n CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 8 coupled couple VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 9 algebraic algebraic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 10 equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 11 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 13 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 14 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 15 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 17 divide divide VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 18 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 19 S s NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 20 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 21 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 22 both both DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 23 sides side NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 24 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 25 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 328 26 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 329 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 329 2 26a 26a NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 329 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 329 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 329 5 integrate integrate VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 329 6 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 329 7 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 329 8 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 329 9 ∞. ∞. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 1 These these DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 2 algebraic algebraic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 3 equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 4 contain contain VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 5 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 6 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 7 I i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 8 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 9 dt dt NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 11 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 12 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 13 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 14 eliminated eliminate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 15 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 16 integrating integrate VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 17 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 330 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 331 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 331 2 26c 26c NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 331 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 332 1 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 332 2 noting note VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 332 3 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 332 4 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 332 5 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 332 6 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 333 1 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 333 2 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 333 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 333 4 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 333 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 333 6 − − NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 334 1 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 334 2 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 334 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 334 4 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 334 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 334 6 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 3 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 4 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 5 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 7 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 9 → → SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 10 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 12 S S NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 13 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 15 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 17 → → SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 18 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 21 obtain obtain VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 22 These these DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 23 equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 24 form form VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 25 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 26 special special JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 27 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 28 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 29 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 30 more more RBR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 31 general general JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 32 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 33 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 34 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 35 discussed discuss VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 36 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 37 Diekmann Diekmann NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 38 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 39 Heesterbeek Heesterbeek NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 41 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 335 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 336 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 336 2 exercises exercise NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 336 3 6.17 6.17 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 336 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 336 5 6.19 6.19 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 336 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 336 7 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 2 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 3 solution solution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 4 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 5 exercise exercise VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 6 6.19 6.19 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 8 Diekmann Diekmann NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 9 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 10 Heesterbeek Heesterbeek NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 12 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 14 sketch sketch VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 15 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 16 argument argument NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 17 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 18 implies imply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 19 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 20 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 21 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 22 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 23 > > SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 24 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 25 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 26 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 27 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 28 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 29 unique unique JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 30 non non JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 31 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 32 trivial trivial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 34 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 35 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 36 non non JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 37 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 38 zero zero JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 40 solution solution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 41 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 42 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 337 43 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 338 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 338 2 27 27 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 338 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 338 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 2 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 3 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 4 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 6 whole whole JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 7 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 9 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 11 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 12 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 13 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 14 general general JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 16 simple simple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 17 average average NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 19 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 339 20 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 340 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 340 2 's be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 340 3 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 340 4 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 340 5 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 341 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 341 2 27 27 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 341 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 341 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 1 Rather rather RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 3 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 4 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 5 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 6 must must MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 7 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 8 weighted weight VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 9 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 11 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 12 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 13 N N NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 14 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 342 16 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 3 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 5 Consequently consequently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 7 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 8 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 9 always always RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 10 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 11 particular particular JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 12 values value NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 15 N n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 16 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 17 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 18 make make VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 19 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 20 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 21 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 343 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 2 28 28 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 4 equal equal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 5 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 7 solution solution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 8 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 10 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 11 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 13 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 344 15 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 1 However however RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 3 since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 4 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 5 sizes size NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 6 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 7 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 8 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 9 priori priori FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 12 problem problem NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 14 interest interest NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 15 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 16 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 17 find find VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 18 necessary necessary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 19 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 20 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 21 conditions condition NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 22 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 23 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 24 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 25 matrix matrix NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 27 B b NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 29 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 30 ensure ensure VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 31 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 32 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 33 sum sum NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 34 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 35 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 345 36 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 2 28 28 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 5 equal equal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 6 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 8 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 9 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 10 obtained obtain VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 11 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 13 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 14 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 16 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 19 regardless regardless RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 20 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 21 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 22 values value NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 23 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 24 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 25 N N NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 26 i i NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 346 27 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 347 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 347 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 347 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 2 28 28 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 5 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 6 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 7 have have VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 8 no no DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 9 dependence dependence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 10 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 12 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 13 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 14 sizes size NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 15 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 16 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 17 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 18 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 19 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 20 Given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 21 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 22 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 23 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 348 24 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 2 27 27 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 4 implies imply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 5 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 8 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 9 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 10 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 12 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 13 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 14 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 15 patches patch NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 349 16 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 3 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 5 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 6 hand hand NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 9 start start VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 10 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 11 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 350 12 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 2 30 30 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 4 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 5 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 6 assumption assumption NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 8 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 9 inserting insert VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 10 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 351 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 352 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 352 2 29 29 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 352 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 352 4 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 352 5 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 352 6 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 2 27 27 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 4 Restricting restrict VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 5 attention attention NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 6 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 7 situations situation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 8 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 9 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 11 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 12 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 15 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 16 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 17 every every DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 18 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 19 may may MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 20 seem seem VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 21 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 22 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 23 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 24 extremely extremely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 25 stringent stringent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 26 constraint constraint NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 353 27 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 2 fact fact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 4 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 5 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 6 often often RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 8 situation situation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 10 interest interest NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 354 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 1 For for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 2 example example NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 4 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 5 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 6 normally normally RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 7 reside reside VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 8 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 9 Boston Boston NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 11 Philadelphia Philadelphia NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 12 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 13 New New NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 14 York York NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 15 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 16 expect expect VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 17 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 18 contact contact VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 19 similar similar JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 20 numbers number NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 21 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 22 people people NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 23 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 24 day day NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 25 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 26 even even RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 27 though though IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 28 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 29 New New NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 30 York York NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 31 metropolitan metropolitan JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 32 area area NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 33 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 34 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 35 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 36 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 37 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 38 several several JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 39 times time NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 40 larger large JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 41 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 42 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 43 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 44 two two CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 355 45 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 1 More more RBR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 2 generally generally RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 4 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 5 patches patch NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 6 represent represent VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 7 large large JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 8 cities city NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 9 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 10 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 11 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 12 country country NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 14 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 16 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 17 reasonable reasonable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 18 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 19 expect expect VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 20 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 21 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 22 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 23 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 24 contacts contact NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 25 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 26 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 27 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 28 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 29 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 30 depend depend VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 31 strongly strongly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 32 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 33 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 34 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 35 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 36 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 37 city city NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 356 38 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 357 1 Given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 357 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 357 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 2 30 30 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 6 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 7 write write VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 8 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 9 P p NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 10 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 11 j j NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 12 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 14 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 16 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 17 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 18 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 19 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 358 20 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 3 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 4 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 5 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 6 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 7 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 8 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 9 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 10 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 11 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 12 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 13 j j NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 15 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 16 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 17 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 19 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 20 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 22 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 23 product product NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 24 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 25 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 26 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 27 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 28 contacts contact NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 29 per per IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 30 unit unit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 31 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 32 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 33 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 34 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 35 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 36 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 37 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 38 between between IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 39 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 40 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 41 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 42 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 43 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 44 individual individual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 45 leads lead VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 46 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 47 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 359 49 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 1 Note note VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 2 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 3 since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 5 rows row NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 8 matrix matrix NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 9 P p NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 10 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 11 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 12 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 15 follows follow VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 16 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 17 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 18 j=1 j=1 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 19 P P NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 20 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 21 j j NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 22 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 23 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 25 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 26 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 27 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 28 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 29 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 30 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 360 31 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 2 n n JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 4 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 6 P p NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 7 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 8 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 9 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 10 matrix matrix NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 12 Horn Horn NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 13 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 14 Johnson Johnson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 16 1985 1985 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 361 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 1 For for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 2 convenience convenience NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 5 make make VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 7 mild mild JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 8 assumption assumption NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 9 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 10 P p NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 11 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 12 j j NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 362 13 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 363 1 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 1 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 2 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 3 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 5 j j NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 7 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 9 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 10 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 11 pair pair NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 13 patches patch NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 15 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 16 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 17 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 18 non non JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 19 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 20 zero zero JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 21 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 22 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 23 residents resident NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 24 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 25 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 26 two two CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 27 patches patch NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 28 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 29 come come VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 30 into into IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 31 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 364 32 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 2 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 3 follows follow VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 4 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 5 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 7 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 8 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 9 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 10 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 11 positive positive JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 12 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 14 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 15 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 16 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 17 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 18 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 19 strictly strictly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 20 positive positive JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 21 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 22 every every DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 23 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 365 24 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 1 To to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 2 see see VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 3 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 5 note note VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 6 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 7 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 8 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 9 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 10 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 11 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 12 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 13 some some DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 14 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 15 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 16 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 366 17 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 367 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 367 2 27 27 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 367 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 367 4 _SP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 368 1 Since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 368 2 P p NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 368 3 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 368 4 j j NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 368 5 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 368 6 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 368 7 implies imply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 369 1 β β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 369 2 i i NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 369 3 j j NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 369 4 > > XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 370 1 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 371 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 371 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 371 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 2 33 33 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 4 implies imply VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 5 Z Z NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 6 j j NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 7 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 8 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 9 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 10 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 372 11 j. j. NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 1 Since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 2 P p NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 3 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 4 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 5 positive positive JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 7 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 8 matrix matrix NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 9 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 10 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 11 largest large JJS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 12 eigenvalue eigenvalue NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 14 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 16 Horn Horn NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 17 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 18 Johnson Johnson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 20 1985 1985 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 373 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 1 Consequently consequently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 4 largest large JJS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 5 eigenvalue eigenvalue NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 7 B b NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 8 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 9 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 10 P p NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 11 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 12 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 13 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 15 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 16 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 17 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 18 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 19 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 20 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 374 21 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 375 1 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 375 2 γ γ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 375 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 376 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 376 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 376 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 376 4 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 376 5 Theorem theorem NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 376 6 9.1 9.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 376 7 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 1 Consider consider VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 3 multi multi JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 4 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 5 patch patch JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 6 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 8 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 9 specified specify VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 10 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 11 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 377 12 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 378 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 378 2 26 26 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 378 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 378 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 1 Suppose suppose VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 3 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 4 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 5 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 6 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 7 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 10 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 12 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 14 n n NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 15 j=1 j=1 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 379 16 β β XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 380 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 380 2 j j NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 380 3 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 380 4 β β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 380 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 380 6 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 380 7 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 380 8 i. i. NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 1 Then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 3 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 5 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 6 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 8 initial initial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 9 proportion proportion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 11 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 12 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 13 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 14 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 381 15 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 382 1 small small JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 382 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 382 3 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 382 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 382 5 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 383 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 383 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 383 3 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 383 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 1 → → SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 2 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 3 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 4 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 5 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 8 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 9 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 10 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 11 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 12 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 14 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 15 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 16 implicitly implicitly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 17 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 18 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 384 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 385 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 385 2 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 385 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 385 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 385 5 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 385 6 explicitly explicitly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 385 7 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 385 8 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 385 9 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 386 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 386 2 A.2 a.2 NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 386 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 386 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 386 5 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 386 6 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 386 7 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 386 8 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 387 1 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 387 2 γ γ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 387 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 1 At at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 2 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 3 point point NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 6 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 7 come come VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 8 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 9 no no DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 10 surprise surprise NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 11 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 12 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 13 some some DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 14 effort effort NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 15 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 16 keeping keep VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 17 track track NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 19 notation notation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 21 Theorem theorem NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 22 9.1 9.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 23 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 24 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 25 generalized generalize VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 26 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 27 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 28 multi multi JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 29 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 30 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 31 SI si NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 32 n n NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 33 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 34 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 35 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 36 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 37 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 38 stage stage NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 39 durations duration NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 40 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 41 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 42 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 43 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 44 rates rate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 45 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 388 46 _SP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 1 Equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 3 26 26 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 6 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 7 specify specify VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 9 spatially spatially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 10 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 11 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 13 analyzed analyze VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 14 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 16 previous previous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 17 section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 19 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 20 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 21 interpretted interprette VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 22 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 23 representing represent VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 24 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 25 types type NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 26 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 27 social social JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 28 heterogeneities heterogeneity NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 29 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 30 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 31 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 32 known know VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 33 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 34 yield yield VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 35 different different JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 36 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 37 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 38 formulae formula NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 40 Gart Gart NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 41 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 42 1968 1968 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 43 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 44 Dwyer Dwyer NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 45 et et NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 46 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 47 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 48 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 49 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 50 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 51 Diekmann Diekmann NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 52 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 53 Heesterbeek Heesterbeek NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 54 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 55 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 56 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 57 Andreasen Andreasen NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 58 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 59 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 60 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 389 61 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 2 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 3 section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 6 briefly briefly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 7 discuss discuss VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 8 two two CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 9 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 10 interpretations interpretation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 12 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 13 lead lead VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 14 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 15 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 16 transmision transmision NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 17 matrix matrix NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 18 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 19 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 20 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 21 proportional proportional JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 22 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 23 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 24 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 25 matrix matrix NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 26 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 27 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 28 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 29 yield yield VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 30 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 31 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 32 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 33 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 34 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 36 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 390 38 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 1 Rather rather RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 2 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 3 specifying specify VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 4 heterogeneities heterogeneity NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 5 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 6 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 7 resulting result VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 8 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 9 spatial spatial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 10 structure structure NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 12 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 13 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 15 previous previous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 16 section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 17 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 18 suppose suppose VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 19 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 20 heterogeneities heterogeneity NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 21 arise arise VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 22 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 23 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 24 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 25 structured structure VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 26 mixing mixing NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 27 patterns pattern NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 391 28 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 1 One one CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 2 possible possible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 3 formulation formulation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 5 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 6 categorize categorize VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 8 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 9 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 10 discrete discrete JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 11 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 12 cohorts cohort NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 14 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 15 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 16 typically typically RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 17 motivated motivate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 18 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 19 mixing mix VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 20 patterns pattern NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 21 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 22 children child NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 23 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 24 schools school NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 392 25 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 3 consider consider VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 4 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 5 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 6 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 7 scale scale NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 8 short short JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 9 enough enough RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 10 that that DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 11 transfer transfer NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 12 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 13 one one CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 14 cohort cohort NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 15 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 17 next next JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 18 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 19 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 20 ignored ignore VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 21 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 22 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 23 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 24 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 25 " " `` cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 26 realistic realistic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 27 agestructured agestructured JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 28 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 29 " " '' cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 31 Schenzle Schenzle NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 32 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 33 1984 1984 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 35 reduces reduce VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 36 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 37 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 393 38 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 2 26 26 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 5 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 7 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 8 matrix matrix NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 9 B B NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 10 now now RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 11 refers refer VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 12 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 13 contact contact VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 14 patterns pattern NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 15 among among IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 16 different different JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 17 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 18 cohorts cohort NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 394 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 1 As as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 2 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 4 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 5 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 7 spatial spatial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 8 patch patch NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 9 interpretation interpretation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 12 might may MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 13 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 14 reasonable reasonable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 15 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 16 assume assume VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 17 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 18 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 19 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 20 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 21 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 22 matrix matrix NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 23 P p NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 24 such such JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 395 25 that that DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 1 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 3 interpretation interpretation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 5 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 6 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 7 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 8 cohort cohort NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 9 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 10 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 11 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 12 proportion proportion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 13 P p NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 14 i i NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 15 j j NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 16 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 17 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 18 contacts contact NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 19 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 20 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 21 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 22 cohort cohort NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 23 j j NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 24 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 25 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 26 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 27 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 28 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 29 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 30 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 31 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 32 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 33 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 34 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 35 cohort cohort NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 396 36 i. i. NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 1 Unlike unlike IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 3 spatial spatial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 4 interpretation interpretation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 6 however however RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 8 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 9 would would MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 10 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 11 hard hard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 12 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 13 justify justify VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 14 taking take VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 15 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 16 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 17 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 18 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 19 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 20 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 21 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 22 each each DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 397 23 i. i. NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 2 particular particular JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 4 young young JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 5 children child NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 6 tend tend VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 7 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 8 come come VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 9 into into IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 10 much much RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 11 closer close JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 12 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 13 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 14 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 15 classmates classmate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 16 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 17 teenagers teenager NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 18 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 19 adults adult NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 20 do do VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 21 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 22 members member NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 23 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 24 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 25 cohorts cohort NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 398 26 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 1 As as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 2 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 3 result result NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 5 Theorem theorem NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 6 9.1 9.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 7 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 8 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 9 apply apply VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 10 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 12 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 13 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 14 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 15 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 16 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 17 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 18 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 19 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 20 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 21 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 23 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 399 25 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 2 Section section NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 3 8 8 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 4 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 6 discussed discuss VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 7 super super JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 8 - - NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 9 spreaders spreader NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 12 specifically specifically RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 13 excluded exclude VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 15 types type NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 16 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 17 super super JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 18 - - NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 19 spreaders spreader NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 20 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 21 occur occur VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 22 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 23 sexually sexually RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 24 transmitted transmit VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 25 diseases disease NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 26 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 27 namely namely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 28 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 29 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 30 always always RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 31 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 32 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 33 higher high JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 34 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 35 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 36 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 37 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 38 others other NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 39 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 40 regardless regardless RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 41 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 42 whether whether IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 43 they -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 44 happen happen VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 45 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 46 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 47 infected infect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 400 48 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 1 When when WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 2 such such JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 3 " " `` cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 4 core core NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 5 groups group NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 6 " " '' cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 8 Yorke Yorke NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 9 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 10 Hethcote Hethcote NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 12 1984 1984 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 13 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 14 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 15 et et NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 16 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 17 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 19 1986 1986 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 21 exist exist VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 22 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 23 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 401 24 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 2 26 26 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 4 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 5 still still RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 6 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 7 used use VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 9 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 11 interpretation interpretation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 12 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 14 stratification stratification NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 17 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 18 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 19 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 20 social social JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 21 group group NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 22 rather rather RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 23 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 24 spatial spatial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 25 region region NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 26 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 27 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 28 cohort cohort NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 402 29 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 1 Like like IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 3 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 4 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 5 structured structure VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 6 situation situation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 7 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 9 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 10 safely safely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 11 assume assume VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 12 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 13 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 403 14 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 404 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 404 2 34 34 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 404 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 404 4 holds hold VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 404 5 but but CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 404 6 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 404 7 that that DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 405 1 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 1 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 2 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 4 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 5 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 6 every every DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 7 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 8 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 9 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 10 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 406 11 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 407 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 407 2 30 30 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 407 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 407 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 3 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 4 large large JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 5 difference difference NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 6 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 7 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 8 i i PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 9 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 10 precisely precisely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 11 what what WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 12 defines define VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 14 core core NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 15 groups group NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 408 16 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 1 Again again RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 4 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 5 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 6 situation situation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 7 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 9 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 10 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 11 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 12 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 13 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 14 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 15 apply apply VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 409 16 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 1 Core core NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 2 groups group NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 3 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 4 well well RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 5 known know VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 6 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 7 have have VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 8 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 9 critical critical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 10 role role NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 11 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 13 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 14 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 16 sexually sexually RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 17 transmitted transmit VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 18 diseases disease NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 20 so so CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 22 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 23 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 24 surprising surprising JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 25 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 26 they -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 27 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 28 affect affect VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 29 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 30 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 31 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 32 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 33 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 410 34 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 2 well well RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 3 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 4 known know VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 5 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 7 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 9 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 11 expected expect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 12 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 13 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 14 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 15 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 17 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 18 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 19 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 20 remarkably remarkably RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 21 general general JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 22 circumstances circumstance NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 411 23 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 1 Previous previous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 2 work work NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 4 e.g. e.g. RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 6 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 8 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 10 1927 1927 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 12 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 13 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 14 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 15 Watsons Watsons NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 17 1980 1980 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 19 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 20 Diekmann Diekmann NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 21 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 22 Heesterbeek Heesterbeek NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 24 2000 2000 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 27 established establish VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 28 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 29 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 30 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 31 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 32 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 33 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 34 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 35 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 36 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 37 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 38 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 39 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 40 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 41 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 42 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 44 Theorem Theorem NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 45 6.1 6.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 412 47 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 1 Here here RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 3 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 4 shown show VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 6 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 7 addition addition NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 9 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 11 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 12 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 14 5 5 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 16 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 17 invariant invariant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 18 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 19 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 20 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 21 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 22 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 23 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 24 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 25 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 26 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 27 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 29 Theorem Theorem NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 30 7.1 7.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 32 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 33 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 34 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 35 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 36 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 37 rates rate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 38 within within IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 39 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 41 Theorem theorem NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 42 8.1 8.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 44 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 45 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 46 even even RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 47 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 48 common common JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 49 spatial spatial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 50 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 51 heterogeneities heterogeneity NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 52 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 53 Theorem theorem NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 54 9.1 9.1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 55 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 413 56 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 2 invariance invariance NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 3 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 5 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 6 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 7 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 8 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 9 important important JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 10 practical practical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 11 implications implication NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 414 12 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 1 Typically typically RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 4 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 5 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 6 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 7 one one PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 8 wishes wish VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 9 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 10 estimate estimate VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 12 expected expect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 13 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 14 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 16 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 18 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 19 long long RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 20 before before IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 21 enough enough JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 22 information information NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 23 has have VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 24 been be VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 25 gathered gather VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 26 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 27 estimate estimate VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 28 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 29 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 30 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 31 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 32 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 33 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 34 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 35 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 36 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 37 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 38 details detail NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 415 39 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 2 theorems theorem NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 3 provide provide VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 4 rigorous rigorous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 5 support support NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 6 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 7 estimates estimate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 8 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 10 expected expect VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 11 magnitude magnitude NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 13 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 14 based base VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 15 solely solely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 16 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 17 estimates estimate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 18 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 19 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 20 basic basic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 21 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 22 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 23 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 24 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 25 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 26 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 27 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 28 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 29 only only JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 30 parameter parameter NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 31 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 32 appears appear VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 33 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 34 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 35 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 36 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 37 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 39 5 5 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 416 41 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 2 should should MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 3 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 4 noted note VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 5 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 7 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 8 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 9 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 10 refers refer VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 11 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 12 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 14 ensemble ensemble JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 15 average average JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 16 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 17 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 18 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 20 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 21 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 22 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 23 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 24 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 25 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 26 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 27 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 417 28 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 1 Different different JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 2 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 3 realizations realization NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 6 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 7 process process NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 8 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 9 lead lead VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 10 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 11 different different JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 12 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 13 sizes size NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 14 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 15 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 16 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 17 says say VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 18 nothing nothing NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 19 about about IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 20 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 21 variance variance NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 22 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 23 higher high JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 24 moments moment NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 25 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 26 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 27 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 28 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 29 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 418 30 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 1 Kurtz Kurtz NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 3 1980 1980 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 5 proved prove VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 6 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 7 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 9 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 10 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 12 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 13 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 14 goes go VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 15 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 16 infinity infinity NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 17 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 19 ensemble ensemble NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 20 mean mean NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 21 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 22 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 23 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 24 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 25 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 26 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 27 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 28 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 29 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 30 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 31 converges converge VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 32 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 33 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 34 solutions solution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 35 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 36 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 37 integro integro JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 38 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 39 differential differential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 40 equation equation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 41 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 42 specified specify VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 43 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 44 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 45 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 419 46 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 420 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 420 2 11 11 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 420 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 420 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 1 Hence hence RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 4 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 5 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 6 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 7 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 8 gives give VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 10 mean mean JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 11 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 12 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 14 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 15 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 16 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 17 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 421 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 1 However however RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 4 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 5 difficult difficult JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 6 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 7 deduce deduce VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 9 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 12 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 13 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 14 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 15 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 16 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 17 remains remain VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 18 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 19 open open JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 20 problem problem NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 21 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 22 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 23 SIR SIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 24 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 25 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 26 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 27 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 28 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 29 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 422 30 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 1 For for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 2 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 3 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 4 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 5 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 6 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 7 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 8 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 9 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 10 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 11 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 13 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 14 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 15 Watsons Watsons NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 17 1980 1980 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 19 derived derive VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 20 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 21 normal normal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 22 approximation approximation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 23 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 24 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 25 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 26 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 27 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 28 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 29 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 30 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 31 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 32 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 33 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 34 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 35 large large JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 36 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 37 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 423 38 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 1 If if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 2 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 3 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 4 little little JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 5 variation variation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 6 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 8 length length NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 11 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 12 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 14 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 15 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 16 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 17 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 18 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 19 short short JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 21 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 22 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 23 SEIR seir NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 24 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 25 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 26 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 27 approximated approximate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 28 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 29 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 30 chain chain NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 31 binomial binomial NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 32 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 34 Bailey Bailey NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 35 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 36 1975 1975 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 38 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 39 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 40 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 41 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 42 discrete discrete JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 43 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 44 Markov Markov NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 45 chain chain NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 424 46 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 2 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 3 step step NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 4 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 5 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 6 chain chain NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 7 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 8 equal equal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 9 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 11 fixed fix VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 12 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 13 length length NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 14 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 15 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 17 since since IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 19 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 20 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 21 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 22 presumed presume VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 23 infinitesimal infinitesimal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 25 all all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 26 contacts contact NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 27 occur occur VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 28 instantaneously instantaneously RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 29 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 30 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 31 end end NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 32 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 33 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 34 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 35 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 425 37 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 1 For for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 2 such such JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 3 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 6 only only JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 7 parameter parameter NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 8 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 10 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 11 q q NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 12 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 13 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 14 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 15 between between IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 16 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 17 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 18 individual individual NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 19 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 20 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 21 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 22 individual individual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 23 leads lead VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 24 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 25 infection infection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 426 26 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 1 With with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 3 assumption assumption NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 4 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 5 q q NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 6 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 7 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 8 − − NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 9 e e NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 10 −R0 −R0 NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 11 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 12 Von Von NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 13 Bahr Bahr NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 14 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 15 Martin Martin NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 16 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 17 Lof Lof NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 19 1980 1980 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 21 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 22 Scalia Scalia NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 23 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 24 Tomba Tomba NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 26 1985 1985 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 28 showed show VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 29 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 30 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 31 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 32 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 33 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 34 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 35 traditional traditional JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 36 chain chain NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 37 binomial binomial NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 38 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 39 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 40 asymptotically asymptotically RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 41 normal normal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 42 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 43 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 44 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 45 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 46 large large JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 47 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 48 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 427 49 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 1 Scalia Scalia NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 2 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 3 Tomba Tomba NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 5 1986 1986 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 8 Andersson Andersson NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 10 1999 1999 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 12 studied study VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 13 more more JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 14 general general JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 15 chain chain NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 16 binomial binomial NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 17 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 19 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 20 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 21 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 22 structures structure NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 23 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 24 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 25 those those DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 26 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 27 discussed discuss VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 28 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 29 Sections section NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 30 9 9 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 31 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 32 10 10 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 34 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 35 found find VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 36 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 37 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 38 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 39 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 428 40 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 429 1 Their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 429 2 results result NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 429 3 imply imply VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 429 4 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 429 5 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 429 6 q q NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 430 1 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 430 2 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 430 3 − − NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 430 4 e e NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 430 5 −R0 −r0 ADD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 1 then then RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 3 ensemble ensemble NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 4 mean mean VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 5 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 6 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 7 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 8 these these DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 9 chain chain NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 10 binomial binomial NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 11 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 12 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 14 solution solution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 16 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 17 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 431 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 432 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 432 2 27 27 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 432 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 432 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 2 emphasized emphasize VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 3 two two CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 4 circumstances circumstance NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 5 under under IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 6 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 8 usual usual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 9 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 10 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 11 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 12 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 13 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 14 apply apply VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 433 15 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 1 One one CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 2 was be VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 4 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 5 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 6 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 7 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 8 structured structure VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 9 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 11 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 12 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 13 while while IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 14 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 15 would would MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 16 influence influence VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 18 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 19 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 22 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 23 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 24 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 25 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 26 would would MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 27 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 28 able able JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 29 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 30 parameterize parameterize VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 31 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 32 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 33 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 34 structured structure VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 35 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 36 patterns pattern NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 37 sufficiently sufficiently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 38 well well RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 39 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 40 improve improve VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 41 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 42 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 43 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 44 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 45 estimate estimate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 46 generated generate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 47 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 48 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 49 assumption assumption NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 50 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 51 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 52 mixing mixing NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 434 53 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 2 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 3 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 5 discussed discuss VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 6 was be VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 7 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 8 existence existence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 10 social social JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 11 core core NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 12 groups group NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 14 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 15 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 16 extremely extremely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 17 important important JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 18 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 19 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 20 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 21 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 22 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 23 sexually sexually RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 24 transmitted transmit VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 25 diseases disease NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 26 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 27 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 28 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 29 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 30 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 31 some some DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 32 estimate estimate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 33 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 34 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 35 difference difference NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 36 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 37 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 38 rates rate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 39 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 40 different different JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 41 social social JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 42 groups group NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 43 would would MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 44 likely likely RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 45 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 46 needed need VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 47 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 48 obtain obtain VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 49 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 50 useful useful JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 51 estimate estimate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 52 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 53 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 54 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 55 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 435 56 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 2 computing compute VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 4 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 5 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 8 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 9 always always RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 10 assumed assume VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 11 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 12 there there EX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 13 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 14 no no DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 15 temporal temporal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 16 changes change NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 17 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 19 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 20 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 21 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 436 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 1 Temporal temporal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 2 variations variation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 3 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 4 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 5 could could MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 6 result result VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 7 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 8 intrinsic intrinsic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 9 seasonality seasonality NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 11 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 12 rates rate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 14 imposition imposition NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 16 control control NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 17 measures measure NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 19 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 20 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 21 change change NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 22 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 23 response response NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 24 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 26 alerts alert NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 437 27 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 1 Small small JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 2 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 3 variations variation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 4 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 5 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 6 cause cause NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 7 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 8 small small JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 9 perturbations perturbation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 10 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 11 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 12 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 13 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 14 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 16 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 17 substantial substantial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 18 seasonality seasonality NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 19 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 20 generally generally RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 21 associated associate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 22 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 23 school school NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 24 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 25 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 26 children child NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 28 London London NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 29 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 30 Yorke Yorke NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 31 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 32 1973 1973 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 34 who who WP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 35 form form VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 36 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 37 small small JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 38 fraction fraction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 39 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 40 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 41 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 42 pool pool NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 43 when when WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 44 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 45 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 46 infection infection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 47 enters enter VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 48 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 49 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 438 50 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 1 Infection infection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 2 control control NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 3 measures measure NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 5 such such JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 6 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 7 those those DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 8 adopted adopt VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 9 during during IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 11 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 12 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 15 Lipsitch Lipsitch NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 16 et et NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 17 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 18 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 20 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 21 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 22 Wallinga Wallinga NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 23 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 24 Teunis Teunis NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 25 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 26 2004 2004 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 28 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 29 could could MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 30 have have VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 31 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 32 dramatic dramatic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 33 effect effect NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 34 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 35 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 36 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 37 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 38 ; ; : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 39 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 40 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 41 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 42 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 43 rather rather RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 44 than than IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 45 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 46 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 47 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 48 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 49 reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 50 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 51 that that WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 52 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 53 relevant relevant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 54 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 55 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 56 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 57 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 58 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 59 must must MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 60 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 61 calculated calculate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 62 after after IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 63 sustainable sustainable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 64 precautionary precautionary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 65 measures measure NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 66 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 67 been be VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 68 put put VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 69 into into IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 70 place place NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 439 71 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 1 Individual individual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 2 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 3 change change NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 4 could could MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 5 alter alter VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 7 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 8 rate rate NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 9 through through IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 10 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 11 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 12 dependence dependence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 14 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 15 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 16 β(t β(t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 19 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 20 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 21 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 22 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 23 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 24 imposed impose VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 25 control control NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 26 measures measure NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 28 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 29 through through IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 30 density density NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 31 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 32 dependence dependence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 34 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 35 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 36 β(I β(I NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 38 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 39 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 40 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 41 decreasing decrease VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 42 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 43 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 44 increases increase VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 45 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 46 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 47 would would MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 48 arise arise VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 49 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 50 people people NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 51 tend tend VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 52 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 53 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 54 more more RBR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 55 careful careful JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 56 when when WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 57 they -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 58 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 59 aware aware JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 60 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 61 more more JJR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 62 cases case NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 63 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 440 64 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 1 In in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 2 either either DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 3 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 5 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 6 standard standard JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 7 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 8 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 9 formula formula NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 10 might may MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 11 yield yield VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 12 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 13 poor poor JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 14 approximation approximation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 15 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 17 true true JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 18 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 19 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 441 20 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 1 All all DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 2 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 4 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 5 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 6 predicated predicate VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 7 on on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 9 assumption assumption NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 10 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 11 vital vital JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 12 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 14 births birth NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 15 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 16 deaths death NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 19 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 20 more more RBR cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 21 generally generally RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 22 any any DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 23 source source NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 24 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 25 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 26 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 27 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 28 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 29 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 30 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 31 ignored ignore VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 442 32 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 1 This this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 2 approximation approximation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 3 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 4 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 5 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 6 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 7 circumstances circumstance NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 8 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 10 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 11 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 12 substantial substantial JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 13 compared compare VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 14 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 15 life life NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 16 expectancy expectancy NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 17 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 18 where where WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 19 immunity immunity NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 20 decays decay VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 21 rapidly rapidly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 443 22 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 2 will will MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 3 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 4 however however RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 6 typically typically RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 7 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 8 relevant relevant JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 9 whenever whenever WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 10 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 11 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 12 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 13 pathogen pathogen NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 14 emerges emerge VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 16 as as IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 17 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 18 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 19 case case NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 20 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 21 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 22 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 23 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 24 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 444 25 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 2 Donnelly Donnelly NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 3 et et NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 4 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 5 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 7 2003 2003 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 9 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 11 emergence emergence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 13 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 14 new new JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 15 subtype subtype NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 16 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 17 influenza influenza NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 19 Earn earn VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 20 et et FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 21 al al NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 22 . . NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 23 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 24 2002 2002 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 445 26 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 2 are be VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 3 interested interested JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 4 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 5 growth growth NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 6 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 7 decay decay NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 8 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 9 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 10 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 12 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 13 which which WDT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 14 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 15 determined determine VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 16 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 17 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 18 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 446 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 447 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 447 2 D.1b D.1b NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 447 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 447 4 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 448 1 Defining define VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 448 2 X(t X(t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 448 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 449 1 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 1 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 2 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 3 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 4 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 6 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 8 dβ dβ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 9 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 10 multiplying multiply VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 11 both both DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 12 sides side NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 13 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 14 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 450 15 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 2 D.1b D.1b NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 4 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 5 β β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 8 integrating integrate VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 9 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 10 respect respect NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 11 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 12 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 15 find find VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 16 On on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 17 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 18 other other JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 19 hand hand NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 21 recall recall VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 22 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 23 I(t I(t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 451 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 452 1 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 1 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 2 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 3 I(β I(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 5 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 7 dt dt NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 10 total total JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 11 number number NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 13 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 14 individuals individual NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 15 at at IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 16 time time NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 17 t t NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 453 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 454 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 454 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 454 3 integrating integrate VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 454 4 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 454 5 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 2 B.2b B.2b NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 4 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 5 respect respect NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 6 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 7 β β NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 9 noting note VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 10 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 11 q(β q(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 13 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 14 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 15 probability probability NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 16 density density NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 455 17 function function NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 1 so so RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 2 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 3 origin origin NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 5 this this DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 6 system system NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 7 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 8 two two CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 9 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 10 differential differential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 11 equations equation NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 12 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 13 locally locally RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 14 stable stable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 15 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 16 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 17 only only RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 18 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 19 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 20 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 21 βq(β βq(β NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 23 dβ dβ IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 24 − − CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 25 γ γ NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 26 < < XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 27 0 0 NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 28 or or CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 29 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 30 equivalently equivalently RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 31 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 32 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 33 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 34 < < XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 35 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 456 36 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 1 Thus thus RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 2 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 3 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 4 DFE DFE NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 5 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 6 stable stable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 7 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 8 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 9 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 10 < < XX cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 11 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 12 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 13 unstable unstable JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 14 if if IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 15 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 16 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 17 > > SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 18 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 457 19 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 2 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 3 expand expand VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 4 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 6 21 21 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 8 to to TO cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 9 include include VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 10 multiple multiple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 11 stages stage NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 458 12 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 1 Using use VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 3 same same JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 4 techniques technique NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 5 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 7 find find VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 8 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 10 conclusion conclusion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 11 that that IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 14 threshold threshold NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 15 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 16 given give VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 17 by by IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 18 R r NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 459 19 0 0 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 460 1 = = SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 460 2 1 1 CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 460 3 remains remain VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 460 4 valid valid JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 460 5 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 1 On on IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 2 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 3 spread spread NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 5 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 6 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 7 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 8 gamma gamma NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 9 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 10 latent latent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 11 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 12 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 13 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 14 Infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 15 Diseases disease NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 16 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 17 Humans human NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 461 18 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 1 Dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 2 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 3 Control Control NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 4 A a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 5 preliminary preliminary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 6 study study NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 7 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 8 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 9 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 10 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 11 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 12 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 13 human human JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 14 immunodeficiency immunodeficiency NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 15 virus virus NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 17 HIV HIV NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 19 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 20 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 21 causative causative JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 22 agent agent NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 23 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 24 AIDS AIDS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 25 Stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 27 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 28 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 29 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 30 statistical statistical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 462 31 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 2 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 3 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 4 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 5 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 7 multitype multitype JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 8 chain chain NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 9 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 10 binomial binomial NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 12 processes process NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 13 Dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 14 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 15 annual annual JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 16 influenza influenza NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 17 a a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 18 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 19 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 20 immuno immuno JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 21 - - NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 463 22 selection selection JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 2 Mathematical Mathematical NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 3 Theory Theory NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 5 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 6 Diseases Diseases NNPS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 8 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 9 Application Application NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 10 Mathematical mathematical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 11 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 12 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 13 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 14 biology biology NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 15 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 16 epidemiology epidemiology NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 17 Mathematical mathematical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 18 epidemiology epidemiology NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 19 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 20 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 21 diseases disease NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 22 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 23 Model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 24 building building NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 25 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 26 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 27 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 28 interpretation interpretation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 29 Epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 30 determinants determinant NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 31 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 32 spread spread NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 33 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 34 causal causal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 35 agent agent NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 36 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 37 severe severe JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 38 acute acute JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 39 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 40 syndrome syndrome NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 41 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 42 Hong Hong NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 43 Kong Kong NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 44 Pathogen Pathogen NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 45 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 46 driven drive VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 47 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 48 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 49 forest forest NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 50 defoliators defoliator NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 51 revisited revisit VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 464 52 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 1 Building building NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 2 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 3 from from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 4 exprimental exprimental NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 5 data data NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 6 Ecology Ecology NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 7 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 8 evolution evolution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 10 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 11 flu flu NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 12 Coherence coherence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 13 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 14 conservation conservation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 15 A a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 16 simple simple JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 17 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 18 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 19 complex complex JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 20 dynamical dynamical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 21 transitions transition NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 22 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 23 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 24 Endemic endemic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 25 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 26 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 27 arbitrarily arbitrarily RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 28 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 29 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 30 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 465 31 infection infection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 466 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 466 2 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 467 1 Fundamental fundamental JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 467 2 properties property NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 467 3 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 467 4 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 467 5 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 2 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 3 analysis analysis NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 5 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 7 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 8 two two CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 9 kinds kind NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 10 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 11 susceptibles susceptible NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 12 Metapopulation Metapopulation NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 13 Biology Biology NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 14 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 15 Ecology Ecology NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 16 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 17 Genetics Genetics NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 18 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 19 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 20 Evolution Evolution NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 21 Matrix Matrix NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 468 22 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 2 differential differential JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 3 infectivity infectivity NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 4 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 5 staged stage VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 6 progression progression NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 7 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 8 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 9 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 10 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 11 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 12 HIV HIV NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 13 A A NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 14 contribution contribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 15 to to IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 16 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 17 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 18 theory theory NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 19 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 20 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 21 Relationships relationship NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 22 between between IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 23 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 24 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 25 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 26 population population NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 27 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 28 Transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 29 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 30 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 31 control control NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 32 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 33 severe severe JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 34 acute acute JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 35 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 36 syndrome syndrome NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 37 Destabilization destabilization NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 38 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 39 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 40 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 41 with with IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 42 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 43 inclusion inclusion NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 44 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 45 realistic realistic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 46 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 47 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 48 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 49 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 50 Realistic realistic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 51 distributions distribution NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 52 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 53 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 54 periods period NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 55 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 56 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 57 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 58 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 59 Changing change VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 60 patterns pattern NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 61 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 62 persistence persistence NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 63 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 64 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 469 65 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 1 Theor theor JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 2 Recurrent recurrent JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 3 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 4 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 5 measles measle NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 6 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 7 chickenpox chickenpox NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 8 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 9 mumps mump NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 470 10 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 471 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 471 2 Seasonal seasonal JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 471 3 variation variation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 471 4 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 471 5 contact contact NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 471 6 rates rate NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 1 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 2 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 3 one one CD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 4 year year NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 5 later later RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 6 Identification identification NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 7 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 8 severe severe JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 9 acute acute JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 10 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 11 syndrome syndrome NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 12 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 472 13 Canada Canada NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 1 The the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 2 Walter Walter NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 3 Reed Reed NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 4 staging stage VBG cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 5 classification classification NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 6 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 7 HTLV HTLV NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 8 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 9 III III NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 10 / / SYM cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 11 LAV LAV NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 473 12 infection infection NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 1 Asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 2 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 3 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 4 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 5 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 6 some some DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 7 chain chain NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 8 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 9 binomial binomial NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 474 10 processes process NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 1 Asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 2 final final JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 3 size size NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 4 distribution distribution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 5 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 6 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 7 multitype multitype JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 8 Reed Reed NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 9 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 10 Frost Frost NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 475 11 process process NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 1 An an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 2 age age NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 3 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 4 structured structure VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 5 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 6 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 7 pre pre JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 8 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 9 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 10 post post JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 11 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 12 vaccination vaccination JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 13 measles measles NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 14 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 15 Infinite infinite JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 16 subharmonic subharmonic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 17 bifurcation bifurcation NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 18 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 19 an an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 20 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 21 model model NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 22 Reproduction reproduction NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 23 numbers number NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 24 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 25 subthreadold subthreadold VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 26 endemic endemic JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 27 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 28 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 29 compartmental compartmental JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 30 models model NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 31 fo fo IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 32 disease disease NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 33 transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 34 Threshold Threshold NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 35 limit limit NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 36 theorems theorem NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 37 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 38 some some DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 39 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 40 processes process VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 41 Different different JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 42 epidemic epidemic NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 43 curves curve NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 44 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 45 severe severe JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 46 acute acute JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 47 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 48 syndrome syndrome NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 49 reveal reveal VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 50 similar similar JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 51 impacts impact NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 52 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 53 control control NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 54 measures measure NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 55 From from IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 56 MathWorld MathWorld NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 57 - - HYPH cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 58 A a DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 59 Wolfram Wolfram NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 60 Web web NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 61 Resource Resource NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 476 62 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 477 1 http:\math http:\math NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 477 2 world.wolfram.com/LambertW-Function.html world.wolfram.com/LambertW-Function.html . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 478 1 Severe severe JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 478 2 acute acute JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 478 3 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 478 4 syndrome syndrome NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 478 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 478 6 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 478 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 1 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 2 multi multi JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 3 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 4 country country JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 5 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 6 Severe severe JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 7 acute acute JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 8 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 9 syndrome syndrome NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 11 SARS SARS NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 13 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 14 multi multi JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 15 - - JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 16 country country JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 17 outbreak outbreak NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 18 Gonorrhea gonorrhea NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 479 19 : : : cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 480 1 Transmission transmission NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 480 2 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 480 3 and and CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 480 4 control control NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 1 An an DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 2 explicit explicit JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 3 solution solution NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 4 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 5 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 6 expressed express VBD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 7 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 8 terms term NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 9 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 10 elementary elementary JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 11 functions function NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 12 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 13 not not RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 14 possible possible JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 15 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 16 but but CC cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 17 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 481 18 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 2 4 4 LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 4 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 5 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 6 solved solve VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 7 explicitly explicitly RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 8 for for IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 9 Z z NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 10 in in IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 11 terms term NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 12 of of IN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 13 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 14 Lambert Lambert NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 15 W W NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 16 function function NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 18 Weisstein Weisstein NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 20 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 21 _SP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 22 When when WRB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 23 the the DT cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 24 infectious infectious JJ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 25 period period NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 26 is be VBZ cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 27 exponentially exponentially RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 28 distributed distribute VBN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 29 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 30 i.e. i.e. FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 31 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 32 f f FW cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 34 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 482 36 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 483 1 γ γ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 1 e e LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 2 −γ −γ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 3 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 4 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 6 have have VBP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 7 l(τ l(τ NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 8 , , , cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 9 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 484 11 = = NFP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 485 1 f f LS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 485 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 485 3 t t NN cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 485 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 485 5 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 486 1 Thus thus RB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 486 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 486 3 . . . cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 487 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 487 2 11f 11f NNS cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 487 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 487 4 can can MD cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 487 5 be be VB cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 487 6 writtenLet writtenLet .