id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-326631-7gd3hjc3	Ma, Junling	Generality of the Final Size Formula for an Epidemic of a Newly Invading Infectious Disease	2006-04-08		.txt	text/plain	7390	557	65	More recent analyses have established that the standard final size formula is valid regardless of the distribution of infectious periods, but that it fails to be correct in the presence of certain kinds of heterogeneous mixing (e.g., if there is a core group, as for sexually transmitted diseases). We then proceed to generalize these results in three new directions, showing that the standard formula remains valid (i) regardless of the number of distinct infectious stages, (ii) if the mean contact rate is itself arbitrarily distributed and (iii) for a large class of spatially heterogeneous contact structures. Since this substage trick can be applied equally well to any infectious stage, Anderson and Watson's (1980) conclusion that the final size in an SIR model with Gamma distributed infectious periods is given by the usual formula (5) now generalizes to an arbitrary number of stages, each with Gamma distributed durations.	./cache/cord-326631-7gd3hjc3.txt	./txt/cord-326631-7gd3hjc3.txt