id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-146213-924ded7t	Kiamari, Mehrdad	COVID-19 Risk Estimation using a Time-varying SIR-model	2020-08-11		.txt	text/plain	3690	168	56	We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a time-varying SIR epidemic model that ultimately yields a simplified color-coded risk level for each community. We show how this risk score can be estimated using another useful metric of infection spread, $R_t$, the time-varying average reproduction number which indicates the average number of individuals an infected person would infect in turn. First, we obtain the daily effective reproduction number R t of a time-varying SIR model as well as the corresponding confidence Interval. Our code for infection risk calculation uses this data in conjunction with a time-varying SIR-based Bayesian mathematical model to obtain risk estimates and prediction for different communities. A well-known parameter in the classical SIR model is called R0, the effective reproductive number, which measures the average number of infections caused by infectious individuals at the beginning of the epidemic.	./cache/cord-146213-924ded7t.txt	./txt/cord-146213-924ded7t.txt